SYLLABUS
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STATISTICS
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MEASUREMENT OF CENTRAL TENDENCY. (1) BASIC CONCEPTS OF PROBABILITY. (2) PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION. (1) DECISION THEORY. (1)
OPERATIONAL RESEARCH
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LINEAR PROGRAMMING (4) TRANSPORTATION (2) ASSINGMENT (1) WAITING LINE MODEL (1) SIMULATION MODEL. (1)
STRUCTURING OF DATA
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TABLES DIAGRAMS
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LINE BAR CHARTS PICTOGRAMS SCATTER DIAGRAM PIE CHART HISTOGRAMS FREQUENCY POLYGONS/CURVES ORGIVES (CUMULATIVE FREQUENCY CURVES).
FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION
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SUMMARY STATISTICS
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MEASURES
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CENTRAL TENDENCY
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MEDIAN MODE
MEAN
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ARTHEMATIC MEAN
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PROS/CONS
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MEAN Cont
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MEDIAN
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PROS / CONS
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MODE
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UNAFFECTED BY EXTREME VALUES COULD BE USED FOR NON NUMERICAL VALUES OEPN-ENDED CLASSES COULD BE USED.
PROS / CONS
UNEFFECTED BY EXTEREME VALUES. COULD BE USED FOR NON NUMERICAL VALUES. OPEN-ENDED CLASSESCOULD BE USED. MULTINODAL DISTRIBUTION.
POINTS TO BE REMEMBERED
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Relation between Mean, Median & Mode. Practice questions: 15, 16, 17, 18, 21, 26, 30, 38, 40. DISPERSION
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PROBABILITY 02/09/2007
NISHANT PANWAR nishant_panwar82@yahoo.com +9198700 06469
FOUNDATION FUNDAMENTALS
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FUNDAMENTALS
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Random Trials / Event. Mutually Exclusive Events. Non Mutually Exclusive Events. Statistically Independent Events. Statistically Dependent Events. Types of Probability.
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P(A or B) = P(A)+P(B)
Sample Questions:
10.8,10.9,10.10.
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Marginal Probability. P(A) = P(A) Joint Probability. P(AB) = P(A) X P(B) Conditional Probability. P(A/B) = P(A) P(B/A) = P(B)
Marginal Probability. P(A) = P(AB)+P(AC) Joint Probability. P(AB) = P(A/B) X P(B)=P(BA) P(BA) = P(B/A) X P(A)=P(AB) Conditional Probability. P(A/B) = P(AB) / P(B) P(B/A) = P(AB) / P(A)
Sample Questions
10.13,10.17.
Bayes Theorem
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10.45-------10.46-------10.56-------10.75-------10.76--------
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
NISHANT PANWAR nishant_panwar82@yahoo.com
FOUNDATION FUNDAMENTALS
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Probability Distribution?
Theoretical Frequency Distribution Frequency Distribution is the listing of observed frequency of all the outcomes of the experiment when the experiment is actually done. Probability Distribution is the listing of frequency of all the possible outcomes of the experiment before the experiment is done.
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Random Variable
It takes values of the outcomes of an Random Experiment.
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0.4 Probability 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 1 2 3 4 Number of heads 0.125 0.125 0.375 0.375
No of heads 0 1 2 3
FUNDAMENTALS
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Discrete Distribution
Random Variable can take fixed values only. Distribution of birthday months of a class. 1,2,3,4.
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Continuous Distribution
Random Variable can take n values very close to each other. Distribution of harmful affluent in ppm in a river flowing.
Binomial Distribution
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Conditions:
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There are only 2 possible outcomes of an experiment. The probability of any outcome is fixed over a period of time. The trials/ outcomes are statistically independent. P (r) = {n! / (r! (n-r)!)} * pr*qn-r r = Number of favorable outcome. n = Number of trials. p = Probability of success. q = Probability of failure = 1-p. Mean () = n * p Std deviation () = (npq).
Formula:
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Problems
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For a binomial distribution with n = 12, p = 0.45, please find the following: q P (r=8) 0.0762 q P (r>4) 0.6955 q Mean and Standard Deviation It is election time, out of random selection probability that a candidate is supporting BJP is 0.55, Congress is 0.30 and SP is 0.15. Out of randomly chosen 10 voters, What is the probability that: q Four are Congress supporters. 0.2001 q None are BJP supporters. 0.0003 q Two are SP Supporters. 0.2759 q At least 8 are Congress Supporters. 0.0016
Poissons Distribution
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Conditions:
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The average value of outcomes per period of time is known. The probability of 2 or more values per unit of time is very small and tending towards 0 The value of variable arriving per second is independent of the the other second in that period of time. The events/outcomes are statistically independent. P (r) = (r e )/ r! r = Number of favorable outcome. = Number of occurrences per interval of time. e = 2.71828.
Formula:
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Problems
1)
a) p (r less than or equal to 2) 0.2103 b) p (r=8) 0.0360 2) The IMO is responsible for printing of bills, the printing error is 0.5% of all the bills. What is the probability that out of a batch of 1000 bills. a) None are flawed. 0.0067 b) Ten are flawed. 0.00016
Normal Distribution
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Z = (x-)/ Z= number of std deviations from the mean X=random value = mean of population = Std deviation.
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Problems
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A training program requires on an average 500 hrs to be completed by a trainee with a standard deviation of 100 hrs. What is the probability that a candidate would require: q More than 500 hours to complete. (50%) q Require between 500 hours and 600 hours to complete. (34.13%) q More than 700 hours to complete. (2.28%) q Between 550 and 650 hours to complete. (24.17%) q Lesser than 580 hours to complete. (78.81%) q Take between 420 and 570 hours to complete. (54.61%)
Problems
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12.9, 12.11, 12.12, 12.32,12.35, 12.44, 12.52, 12.56, 12.68, 12.72, 12.77, 12.81
THANK YOU!!!!!!
DECISION THEORY
THEORY
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LIST ALL OUTCOMES/EVENTS LIST ALL STRATEGIES/ACTIONS. CALCULATE THE PAY- OFFS FOR EACH STRATEGY. CHOOSE THE OPTIMAL STARTEGY. STARTEGIC. TACTICAL. ADMINISTRATIVE. OPERATIONAL.
TYPES OF DECISION
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SCOPE
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DECISION UNCRETAINTY
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LAPLACE. MAXIMIN / MINIMAX. MAXIMAX / MINIMIN. HURWICZ ALPHA. SALVAGE PRINCIPLE. MOST LIKELIHOOD PRINCIPLE. EXPECTATION PRINCIPLE.
DECISION RISK
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MULTI STAGE DECISION MAKING. SAMPLE PROBLEM. UTILITY DECISION MAKING SAMPLE PROBLEM.
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25.3, 25.4 (Pg 510) 25.12 (Pg 520) 25.19, 25.20, 25.28, 25.37, 25.44, 25.46, 25.52, 25.53
FOUNDATION FUNDAMENTALS
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Certainty/ Uncertainty. Static/Dynamic. Nature/ Rational. Problem Definition. Data Collection. Solutions available. Optimal Solution.
SCIENTIFIC METHOD
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FLOW
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FORMULATION OF PROBLEM.
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MAXIMISATION MINIMIZATION
SOLUTION OF PROBLEM.
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SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS.
FOUNDATION FUNDAMENTALS
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Is application of scientific methods, tools and techniques to problems involving operations of system, so as to provide optimal solution to the same. FEATURES:
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Decision making. Scientific Approach. Objective. Inter Disciplinary Approach. Digital Computers.
METHODOLOGY
Define Problem Model Development Obtain Input Data Solution
What is Desirable?
Solution Testing
Implementation
PROBLEM FORMULATION
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Clearly identifiable and measurable. The equation must be linear in nature. The resources and activity variable should be clearly identifiable and measurable. Should be linear in nature.
DECISION VARIABLES
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CONSTRAINTS
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POSITIVE CONDITION.
POINTS TO BE REMEMBERED
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Standardization: q ADD SLACK VARIABLE IN CASE OF q SUBSTRACT SLACK AND ADD ARTIFICIAL VARIABLE IN CASE OF q ADD ARTIFICIAL VARIABLE IN CASE OF =. Objective function: q VALUE OF SLACK VARIABLES ---- 0 q VALUE OF ARTIFICIAL VARIABLES------ M (MINIMIZATION)
------ -M (MAXIMIZATION)
Replacement ratios
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SPECIAL CASES
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Del j =0 ; non basic variables. Artificial variable in solution. Rep ratio (bij) = 0//-ve
UNBOUNDNESS
DUAL OF SIMPLEX
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For every LPP there is a corresponding LPP, through which the solution could be derived for the original LPP
All the variables to be positive in sign. For Maximization, all constraints signs be For Minimization, all constraints signs be
All maximization problems would get converted to minimization in dual and vice versa.
CASES
SINGLE PARAMETER CHANGE n Changes in Objective function (Cj)
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Basic Variables
(Ratio of Del j and corresponding row and find out the least ve and least +ve values)
(Ratio of bi and corresponding Slack column values and find out least
ve and least +ve values)
CASES
MULTI PARAMETER CHANGE n Changes in Objective function (Cj)
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FOUNDATION FUNDAMENTALS
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Simplex method. Transportation Model. North West Corner Rule (NWC). Least Cost Method (LCM). Vogels Approximation method (VAM) Stepping Stone method. Modified Distribution method. (MODI)
Transportation Model
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OPTIMALITY CHECK
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STEPS
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STANDARDIZATION
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Balance the problem matrix. In case of maximization, please convert the problem to minimization. Initial Feasible Solution using VAM. Test degeneracy, in case exists remove by adding eepsilon. Test for optimality. Incase not optimal find revised allocations, using MODI/Stepping Stone Method. In case optimal, find the objective function value.
SOLUTION
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OPTIMALITY TEST
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POINTS TO BE REMEMBERED
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Select the one with minimum cost allocation/ in case again tie choose the one with the maximum allocation. If all values of non basic variables are 0 or +ve,the solution is optimal. If all values of non basic variables are +ve, the solution is optimal and unique. If values of non basic variables are 0,the solution is optimal but not unique.
Optimality Condition:
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SPECIAL CASES
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Unbalanced Problems
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Supply not equal to Demand. Not allowed. M + N -1 not equal to Allocations. If all values of non basic variables are +ve, the solution is optimal and unique. If values of non basic variables are 0 and +ve, The solution is optimal but not unique.
Prohibited Routes
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Degeneracy
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Sample Problems
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STEPS:
START
Balance the problem by adding dummy rows /columns
Problem is Balanced?
NO
YES
Problem is Of Minimisation?
NO
YES
Obtain Initial Feasible Solution using VAM
Problem is Degenerate?
YES
NO
Problem is Optimal. Check Using MODI?
NO
FOUNDATION FUNDAMENTALS
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Assignment Model
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OPTIMALITY CHECK
STEPS
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STANDARDIZATION
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Balance the problem matrix. In case of maximization, please convert the problem to minimization. Initial Feasible Solution using HAM. Minimum number of horizontal/vertical lines covering all the zeros = n (number of rows and columns). If above is not valid, substract the minimum value from the entire elements which are not covered with lines and add to the elements at intersection of 2 lines. In case optimal, do assignments and find objective function value.
SOLUTION
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OPTIMALITY TEST
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POINTS TO BE REMEMBERED
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Points:
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Allocate the rows with one zero. Allocate the columns with one zero. Incase of further tie in 0, select arbitarily. If the number of Horizontal/ Vertical Lines covering all the zeros are equal to the number of rows/columns, solution is optimal. Unbalanced problems. Constrained. Multiple Optimal Solution.
Optimality Condition:
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Situations:
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Sample Problems
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Silence is golden, speech is silverbut knowledge leads to the above two. Questions if any???
THANK YOU.
FOUNDATION FUNDAMENTALS
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Problem needs to be modeled to be solved. Simulation is pilot running of the problem/scenario , which cannot be modeled, under different conditions. Solution
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Monte Carlo Simulation Technique. Problem Definition. Construction of appropriate model. Experimentation. Evaluation of results.
APPLICATION OF SIMULATION
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Financial Scenarios. Production. Inventory management. Project Management. Business process Re engineering. Metrological Departments. Construction Industry. Sales. Marketing. and the list goes on.
RANDOM NUMBERS
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Important component in completing Simulation Techniques. The series of numbers which do not have any relation with other number in the series. Methods of generating RN.
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Arithmetical
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rn = p. rn-1(Module m)
Problems..
Sample Problems
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THANK YOU.