Professor Friedman

Continuous Probability Distributions

Called a Probability density function. The probability is interpreted as "area
under the curve."

1) The random variable takes on an infinite # of values within a given interval

2) the probability that X = any particular value is 0. Consequently, we talk
about intervals. The probability is = to the area under the curve.
3) The area under the whole curve = 1.

Some continuous probability distributions: Normal distribution, Standard

Normal (Z) distribution, Student's t distribution, Chi-square ( 2 ) distribution,
F distribution.

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Professor Friedman

THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

The probability density function for the normal distribution:

f(X), the height of the curve, represents the relative frequency at which the
corresponding values occur.
There are 2 parameters: for location and for shape.
Probabilities are obtained by getting the area under the curve inside of a particular
interval. The area under the curve = the proportion of times under identical
(repeated) conditions that a particular range of values will occur.
The total area under the curve = 1.
Characteristics of the Normal distribution:
1. it is symmetric about the mean .
2. mean = median = mode. [bell-shaped curve]
3. f(X) decreases as X gets farther and farther away from the mean. It approaches
horizontal axis asymptotically:
-<X<+
This means that there is always some probability (area) for extreme values.

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Professor Friedman

Since there are 2 parameters for location and for shape. This means that
there are an infinite number of normal curves even with the same mean.

Curves A and B are both normal distributions. They have the same mean but
different standard deviations.

=30
=5

=80
= 10

=120
=2

The following site demonstrates what happens to the normal curve when you
change the mean and / or the standard deviation:
http://www.stat.sc.edu/~west/applets/normaldemo1.html

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Professor Friedman

However, there is only ONE Standard Normal Distribution. This distribution has a
mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1.
=0

=1

Any normal distribution can be converted into a standard normal distribution by

transforming the normal random variable into the standard normal r.v.:

Z=

This is called standardizing the data. It will result in (transformed) data with = 0
and = 1.

The Standard Normal Distribution (Z) is tabled:

Please note that you may find different tables for the Z-distribution. The table we
prefer (below), gives you the area from 0 to Z. Some books provide a slightly
different table, one that gives you the area in the tail. If you check the diagram that
is usually shown above the table, you can determine which table you have. In the
table below, the area from 0 to Z is shaded so you know that you are getting the
area from 0 to Z. Also, note that table value can never be more than .5000. The
area from 0 to infinity is .5000.
The Normal Distribution is also referred to as the Gaussian Distribution, especially
in the field of physics. In the social sciences, it is sometimes called the bell curve
because of the way it looks (lucky for us it does not look like a chicken).

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Professor Friedman

THE STANDARDIZED NORMAL (Z) DISTRIBUTION

Entry represents area under the standardized normal distribution from the mean to Z
Z
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9

.00
.0000
.0398
.0793
.1179
.1554
.1915
.2257
.2580
.2881
.3159
.3413
.3643
.3849
.4032
.4192
.4332
.4452
.4554
.4641
.4713
.4772
.4821
.4861
.4893
.4918
.4938
.4953
.4965
.4974
.4981
.49865
.49903
.49931
.49952
.49966
.49977
.49984
.49989
.49993
.49995

normal_dist

.01
.0040
.0438
.0832
.1217
.1591
.1950
.2291
.2612
.2910
.3186
.3438
.3665
.3869
.4049
.4207
.4345
.4463
.4564
.4649
.4719
.4778
.4826
.4864
.4896
.4920
.4940
.4955
.4966
.4975
.4982
.49869
.49906
.49934
.49953
.49968
.49978
.49985
.49990
.49993
.49995

.02
.0080
.0478
.0871
.1255
.1628
.1985
.2324
.2642
.2939
.3212
.3461
.3686
.3888
.4066
.4222
.4357
.4474
.4573
.4656
.4726
.4783
.4830
.4868
.4898
.4922
.4941
.4956
.4967
.4976
.4982
.49874
.49910
.49936
.49955
.49969
.49978
.49985
.49990
.49993
.49996

.03
.0120
.0517
.0910
.1293
.1664
.2019
.2357
.2673
.2967
.3238
.3485
.3708
.3907
.4082
.4236
.4370
.4484
.4582
.4664
.4732
.4788
.4834
.4871
.4901
.4925
.4943
.4957
.4968
.4977
.4983
.49878
.49913
.49938
.49957
.49970
.49979
.49986
.49990
.49994
.49996

.04
.0160
.0557
.0948
.1331
.1700
.2054
.2389
.2704
.2995
.3264
.3508
.3729
.3925
.4099
.4251
.4382
.4495
.4591
.4671
.4738
.4793
.4838
.4875
.4904
.4927
.4945
.4959
.4969
.4977
.4984
.49882
.49916
.49940
.49958
.49971
.49980
.49986
.49991
.49994
.49996

.05
.0199
.0596
.0987
.1368
.1736
.2088
.2422
.2734
.3023
.3289
.3531
.3749
.3944
.4115
.4265
.4394
.4505
.4599
.4678
.4744
.4798
.4842
.4878
.4906
.4929
.4946
.4960
.4970
.4978
.4984
.49886
.49918
.49942
.49960
.49972
.49981
.49987
.49991
.49994
.49996

.06
.0239
.0636
.1026
.1406
.1772
.2123
.2454
.2764
.3051
.3315
.3554
.3770
.3962
.4131
.4279
.4406
.4515
.4608
.4686
.4750
.4803
.4846
.4881
.4909
.4931
.4948
.4961
.4971
.4979
.4985
.49889
.49921
.49944
.49961
.49973
.49981
.49987
.49992
.49994
.49996

.07
.0279
.0675
.1064
.1443
.1808
.2157
.2486
.2794
.3078
.3340
.3577
.3790
.3980
.4147
.4292
.4418
.4525
.4616
.4693
.4756
.4808
.4850
.4884
.4911
.4932
.4949
.4962
.4972
.4979
.4985
.49893
.49924
.49946
.49962
.49974
.49982
.49988
.49992
.49995
.49996

.08
.0319
.0714
.1103
.1480
.1844
.2190
.2518
.2823
.3106
.3365
.3599
.3810
.3997
.4162
.4306
.4429
.4535
.4625
.4699
.4761
.4812
.4854
.4887
.4913
.4934
.4951
.4963
.4973
.4980
.4986
.49897
.49926
.49948
.49964
.49975
.49983
.49988
.49992
.49995
.49997

.09
.0359
.0753
.1141
.1517
.1879
.2224
.2549
.2852
.3133
.3389
.3621
.3830
.4015
.4177
.4319
.4441
.4545
.4633
.4706
.4767
.4817
.4857
.4890
.4916
.4936
.4952
.4964
.4974
.4981
.4986
.49900
.49929
.49950
.49965
.49976
.49983
.49989
.49992
.49995
.49997
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Professor Friedman

REMEMBER THESE PROBABILITIES (percentages):

# s.d. from the mean
1
1.645
1.96
2
2.575
3

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approx area under the normal curve

.68
.90
.95
.955
.99
.997

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Professor Friedman

USING THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION TABLE

Example:
If the weight of males is N.D. with =150 and =10, what is the probability that a
male will weight between 140 lbs and 155 lbs?
[Important Note:
The probability that X is equal to any
one particular value is zero
P(X=value) = 0 since the N.D. is
continuous.]

Z=

140 150
10
=
= -1 s.d. from mean
10
10

Area under the curve = .3413 (from Z table)

Z=

155 150
5
=
= .5 s.d. from mean
10
10

Area under the curve = .1915 (from Z table)

Answer:
.3413
.1915
.5328

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Professor Friedman

Example:
If IQ is ND with a mean of 100 and a s.d. of 10, what percentage of the population
will have
(a) IQs ranging from 90 to 110?
(b) IQs ranging from 80 to 120?

(a) Z = (90 100) / 10 = -1

Z = (110 100) / 10 = +1

area = .3413
area = .3413
.6826

Answer: 68.26% of the population

(b) Z = (80 100) / 10 = -2

Z = (120 100) / 10 = +2

area = .4772
area = .4772
.9544

Answer: 95.44% of the population

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Professor Friedman

Example:
Suppose that the average salary of college graduates is N.D. with =$40,000 and
=$10,000.
(a) What proportion of college graduates will earn less than $24,800?

Z = ($24,800 $40,000) / $10,000 = 1.52

area = .0643

6.43% of college graduates will earn less than $24,800

(b) What proportion of college graduates will earn more than $53,500?

Z = ($53,500 $40,000) / $10,000 = +1.35 area = .0885

8.85% of college graduates will earn more than $53,500

(c) What proportion of college graduates will earn between $45,000 and $57,000?

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Professor Friedman

Z = ($57,000 $40,000) / $10,000 = +1.70 area = .4554

Z = ($45,000 $40,000) / $10,000 = +0.50 area = .1915
Answer: .4554 .1915 = .2639
(d) Calculate the 80th percentile.

Find the area that corresponds to an area of .3000 from 0 to Z (this means
that there will be .2000 in the tail). A Z value of + 0.84 corresponds to the 80th
percentile.
+.84 = (X $40,000) / $10,000
X = $40,000 + $8,400 = $48,400.
[Incidentally, the 20th percentile would be $40,000 $8,400 = $31,600]
(e) Calculate the 27th percentile.

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Professor Friedman

Find the area that corresponds to an area of .2300 from 0 to Z (this means
that there will be .2700 in the tail). A Z value of 0.61 corresponds to the 27th
percentile.
0.61 = (X $40,000)/ $10,000
X = $40,000 $6,100 = $33,900

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Professor Friedman

Exercise:
The GPA of college students is ND with =2.70 and =0.25.
(a) What proportion of students have a GPA between 2.40 and 2.50?
(b) Calculate the 97.5th percentile.
[97.5% of college students have a GPA below _______?]
(c) 10% of students have a score above _________? [90th percentile]

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Professor Friedman

Exercise:
Chains have a mean breaking strength of 200 lbs, =20 lbs.
(a) What proportion of chains will have a breaking strength below 180 lbs?
(b) 99% of chains have breaking points below _________?

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Professor Friedman

Exercise:
The average life of a stove manufactured by GE is 15 years with a s.d. of 2.5 years.
(a) What percentage of stoves will last 10 years or less?
(b) What percentage of stoves will last 18 years or more?
(c) Calculate the 1st percentile.
(d) Calculate the 96th percentile
(e) What percentage of stoves will last between 16 and 20 years?

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