Chapter 8 Supplementary Material Appendix 8.a. Supplementary Figures and Tables

8
Supplementary Materials
Climate Models
and Their Evaluation
Coordinating Lead Authors:
David A. Randall (USA), Richard A. Wood (UK)
Lead Authors:
Sandrine Bony (France), Robert Colman (Australia), Thierry Fichefet (Belgium), John Fyfe (Canada), Vladimir Kattsov (Russian Federation),
Andrew Pitman (Australia), Jagadish Shukla (USA), Jayaraman Srinivasan (India), Ronald J. Stouffer (USA), Akimasa Sumi (Japan),
Karl E. Taylor (USA)
Contributing Authors:
K. AchutaRao (USA), R. Allan (UK), A. Berger (Belgium), H. Blatter (Switzerland), C. Bonfils (USA, France), A. Boone (France, USA),
C. Bretherton (USA), A. Broccoli (USA), V. Brovkin (Germany, Russian Federation), W. Cai (Australia), M. Claussen (Germany),
P. Dirmeyer (USA), C. Doutriaux (USA, France), H. Drange (Norway), J.-L. Dufresne (France), S. Emori (Japan), P. Forster (UK),
A. Frei (USA), A. Ganopolski (Germany), P. Gent (USA), P. Gleckler (USA), H. Goosse (Belgium), R. Graham (UK), J.M. Gregory (UK),
R. Gudgel (USA), A. Hall (USA), S. Hallegatte (USA, France), H. Hasumi (Japan), A. Henderson-Sellers (Switzerland), H. Hendon (Australia),
K. Hodges (UK), M. Holland (USA), A.A.M. Holtslag (Netherlands), E. Hunke (USA), P. Huybrechts (Belgium),
W. Ingram (UK), F. Joos (Switzerland), B. Kirtman (USA), S. Klein (USA), R. Koster (USA), P. Kushner (Canada), J. Lanzante (USA),
M. Latif (Germany), N.-C. Lau (USA), M. Meinshausen (Germany), A. Monahan (Canada), J.M. Murphy (UK), T. Osborn (UK),
T. Pavlova (Russian Federationi), V. Petoukhov (Germany), T. Phillips (USA), S. Power (Australia), S. Rahmstorf (Germany),
S.C.B. Raper (UK), H. Renssen (Netherlands), D. Rind (USA), M. Roberts (UK), A. Rosati (USA), C. Schr (Switzerland),
A. Schmittner (USA, Germany), J. Scinocca (Canada), D. Seidov (USA), A.G. Slater (USA, Australia), J. Slingo (UK), D. Smith (UK),
B. Soden (USA), W. Stern (USA), D.A. Stone (UK), K.Sudo (Japan), T. Takemura (Japan), G. Tselioudis (USA, Greece), M. Webb (UK),
M. Wild (Switzerland)
Review Editors:
Elisa Manzini (Italy), Taroh Matsuno (Japan), Bryant McAvaney (Australia)
This chapter should be cited as:

Randall, D.A., R.A. Wood, S. Bony, R. Colman, T. Fichefet, J. Fyfe, V. Kattsov, A. Pitman, J. Shukla, J. Srinivasan, R.J. Stouffer, A. Sumi
and K.E. Taylor, 2007: Cilmate Models and Their Evaluation. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of
Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning,
Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New
York, NY, USA.
Climate Models and Their Evaluation
Supplementary Material: Chapter 8
Appendix 8.A:
Supplementary Figures and Tables
Supplementary Figures for Section 8.3
These figures are cited as supplementary material in Chapter 8, Section 3. They contain supportive analyses that, due to space
limitations, could not be shown in the main report. There are a number of places in the text where the reader is encouraged to
view these supplementary figures. The results presented here support the points made in the report. The figures present results
from individual models, which are the basis for the construction of the multi-model averages and model spreads shown in section
8.3. References cited here are given at the end of the main chapter text.
Note that results from some models have only recently become available and may not be included here.
Figure S8.1: Surface temperature:
Each page of figure S8.1a shows:
Upper left panel: Observed annual-mean sea surface temperature (SST) climatology and, over land, surface air temperature
climatology (C).
Upper center panel: Corresponding field averaged over the multi-model ensemble (C).
All other panels: Corresponding individual model results (C).
SM.8-
SM.8-
CRU/HadISST
Mean Model
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1
-15
-20
SM.8-
PCM
-5
-10
5
0
15
10
25
20
30
Each page of figure S8.1b shows:

Upper left panel: Observed annual-mean sea surface temperature (SST) climatology and, over land, surface air temperature climatology (C).
Upper center panel: Multi-model mean error (C), simulated minus observed.
Upper right panel: Root-mean-square model error (C), based on all available IPCC model simulations (i.e., square-root of the sum of the squares
of individual model errors, divided by the number of models).
All other panels: Individual model errors (C), simulated minus observed.
The HadISST (Rayner et al., 2003) climatology of SST for 1980-1999 and the CRU (Jones et al., 1999) climatology of surface
air tempeature over land for 19611990 are shown here. The model results are for the same period of the CMIP3 20th Century
simulations. In the presence of sea ice, the SST is assumed to be at the approximate freezing point of sea water (1.8 C).
Merged Surface Temperature Difference from CRU/HadISST

Mean Model
CRU/HadISST
-15
-20
-5
-10
5
0
15
10
Typical Error
25
20
0
30
2
1
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
-4
-5
-2
-3
0
-1
2
1
4
3
6
5
8
7
4
3
SM.8-

Mean Model
CRU/HadISST
-15
-20
-5
-10
5
0
15
10
Typical Error
25
20
0
30
2
1
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
-4
-5
SM.8-
-2
-3
0
-1
2
1
4
5
4
3
8
7

Mean Model
CRU/HadISST
-15
-20
-5
-10
5
0
15
10
Typical Error
25
20
0
30
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1
-4
-5
2
3
6
5
8
7
PCM
-2
-3
0
-1
2
1
4
3
SM.8-
Figure S8.2: Surface temperature standard deviation:

Upper left panel: Observed standard deviation of sea surface temperature (SST) and, over land, surface air temperature (C),
computed over the climatological monthly mean annual cycle.
Merged Surface Temperature: Standard Deviation over Time
CRU/HadISST
Mean Model
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
3
1.5
SM.8-
6
4.5
9
7.5
12
10.5
15
13.5
18
16.5
CRU/HadISST
Mean Model
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
3
1.5
6
4.5
9
7.5
12
10.5
15
13.5
18
16.5
SM.8-
CRU/HadISST
Mean Model
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1
3
1.5
SM.8-10
6
4.5
PCM
9
7.5
12
10.5
15
13.5
18
16.5

Upper left panel: Observed standard deviation of sea surface temperature (SST) and, over land, surface air temperature (C), computed over the
climatological monthly mean annual cycle.
Upper right panel: Root-mean-square model error (C), based on all available IPCC model simulations (i.e., square-root of the sum of the squares
of individual model errors, divided by the number of models).
The HadISST (Rayner et al., 2003) climatology of SST for 1980-1999 and the CRU (Jones et al., 1999) climatology of surface
air temperature over land for 19611990 are shown here. The model results are for the same period of the CMIP3 20th Century
simulations. In the presence of sea ice, the SST is assumed to be at the approximate freezing point of sea water (1.8 C).
Merged Surface Temperature: Standard Deviation over Time, Difference from CRU/HadISST
Mean Model
CRU/HadISST
3
1.5
6
4.5
9
7.5
12
10.5
15
13.5
Typical Error
18
16.5
1
0.5
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
-2
-2.5
-1
-1.5
0
-0.5
1
0.5
2
1.5
3
2.5
4
3.5
2
1.5
2.5
SM.8-11
Mean Model
CRU/HadISST
3
1.5
6
4.5
9
7.5
12
10.5
15
13.5
Typical Error
18
16.5
1
0.5
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
-2
-2.5
SM.8-12
-1
-1.5
0
-0.5
1
0.5
2
1.5
2.5
2
1.5
2.5
4
3.5
Mean Model
CRU/HadISST
3
1.5
6
4.5
9
7.5
12
10.5
15
13.5
Typical Error
18
16.5
0.5
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1
-2
-2.5
-1
-1.5
1.5
3
2.5
4
3.5
PCM
0
-0.5
1
0.5
2
1.5
2.5
SM.8-13
Figure S8.3: Diurnal range of surface air temperature over land:

Upper left panel: Observed diurnal range of surface air temperature over land, annual averaged (C).
Diurnal Temperature Range
CRU
Mean Model
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
BCC-CM1
CGCM3.1(T47)
CNRM-CM3
CGCM3.1(T63)
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
4
2
SM.8-14
8
6
12
10
ECHO-G
16
14
20
18
22
Diurnal Temperature Range (K)
CRU
Mean Model
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
4
2
8
6
12
10
16
14
20
18
22
SM.8-15
Diurnal Temperature Range (K)
CRU
Mean Model
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
UKMO-HadCM3
SM.8-16
UKMO-HadGEM1
4
2
PCM
8
6
12
10
16
14
20
18
22

Upper left panel: Observed diurnal range of surface air temperature over land, annual averaged (C).
Upper right panel: Root-mean-square model error (C), based on all available IPCC model simulations (i.e., square-root of the sum
of the squares of individual model errors, divided by the number of models).
Diurnal Temperature Range Difference from CRU (K)

Mean Model
CRU
4
2
8
6
12
10
16
14
Typical Error
20
18
0
22
2
1
BCCR-BCM2.0
4
3
6
5
8
7
10
9
11
CCSM3
BCC-CM1
CGCM3.1(T47)
CNRM-CM3
CGCM3.1(T63)
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
-8
-10
-4
-6
0
-2
ECHO-G
4
2
8
6
10
SM.8-17

Mean Model
CRU
4
2
8
6
12
10
16
14
Typical Error
20
18
0
22
2
1
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
-8
-10
SM.8-18
-4
-6
0
-2
4
2
6
5
8
6
10
8
7
10
9
11

Mean Model
CRU
4
2
8
6
12
10
16
14
Typical Error
20
18
0
22
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
UKMO-HadCM3
4
3
6
5
8
7
10
9
11
PCM
UKMO-HadGEM1
-8
-10
2
1
-4
-6
0
-2
4
2
8
6
10
SM.8-19
Figure S8.3c shows:

Diurnal range of surface air temperature, averaged zonally over land areas and averaged annually.
(oC)
The observations are from the CRU surface air temperature dataset for the period 1961-1990 (Mitchell and Jones, 2005), and the
model results are from years 1980-1999 of the CMIP3 20th Century simulations. Observations are unreliable over Greenland.
SM.8-20
Figure S8.4: Zonal mean air temperature cross-sections:

Upper left panel: Observed annual-mean air temperature climatology (oC), averaged zonally.
Upper center panel: Corresponding field averaged over the multi-model ensemble (oC).
All other panels: Corresponding individual model results (oC).
ERA40
Mean Model
10
20
100
12
200
300
Air Temperature
10
20
100
12
200
300
500
500
4
700
4
700
1000
1000
90N
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
90N
60
30
BCCR-BCM2.0
EQ
30
60
90S
10
20
100
12
200
300
CCSM3
10
20
100
12
200
300
BCC-CM1
500
500
4
700
1000
1000
90N
CGCM3.1(T47)
60
30
CGCM3.1(T63)
10
20
100
12
200
300
4
700
EQ
30
60
90S
10
90N
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
20
100
12
200
300
500
CNRM-CM3
500
4
700
4
700
1000
1000
90N
60
CSIRO-Mk3.0
30
EQ
30
60
10
90S
20
100
12
200
300
90N
60
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
30
EQ
30
60
90S
10
20
100
12
200
300
500
4
700
4
700
1000
90N
ECHO-G
500
1000
60
30
EQ
30
200
210
60
90S
220
90N
230
60
30
240
EQ
250
30
60
260
270
90S
290
280
300
SM.8-21
ERA40
Mean Model
10
20
100
12
200
300
Air Temperature
10
20
100
12
200
300
500
500
4
700
4
700
1000
1000
90N
60
FGOALS-g1.0
30
EQ
30
60
10
90S
20
100
12
200
300
90N
60
30
GFDL-CM2.0
EQ
30
60
90S
10
20
100
12
200
300
4
700
60
GISS-AOM
30
EQ
30
60
10
90S
20
100
12
200
300
1000
90N
GISS-EH
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
10
20
100
12
200
300
30
EQ
30
60
10
90S
20
100
12
200
300
IPSL-CM4
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
10
20
100
12
200
300
90N
EQ
30
200
SM.8-22
210
60
90S
220
12
200
90N
60
MIROC3.2(hires)
30
EQ
30
60
10
90N
90S
20
100
12
200
4
700
1000
30
20
100
500
700
60
90S
300
1000
60
500
700
30
1000
90N
500
EQ
700
1000
60
INM-CM3.0
30
4
700
90N
60
500
1000
GISS-ER
500
700
90N
10
300
500
4
700
1000
90N
500
1000
12
500
700
20
200
300
500
GFDL-CM2.1
10
100
1000
230
60
30
240
EQ
250
30
60
260
270
90S
90N
280
60
290
30
EQ
300
30
60
90S
ERA40
Mean Model
10
20
100
12
200
300
Air Temperature
10
20
100
12
200
300
500
500
4
700
4
700
1000
1000
90N
60
MIROC3.2(medres)
30
EQ
30
60
10
90S
20
100
12
200
300
90N
60
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
30
EQ
30
60
90S
10
20
100
12
200
300
4
700
60
UKMO-HadCM3
30
EQ
30
60
10
90S
20
100
12
200
300
1000
90N
60
UKMO-HadGEM1
30
EQ
30
60
90S
10
90N
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
20
100
12
200
300
500
500
4
700
4
700
1000
90N
4
700
1000
90N
500
1000
12
500
700
20
200
300
500
PCM
10
100
1000
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
210
200
90N
60
30
230
220
EQ
30
60
250
240
90S
270
260
290
280
300
SM.8-23

Upper left panel: Observed annual-mean air temperature climatology (oC), averaged zonally.
Upper center panel: Multi-model mean error (oC), simulated minus observed.
Upper right panel: Root-mean-square model error (oC), based on all available IPCC model simulations (i.e., square-root of the sum
All other panels: Individual model errors (oC), simulated minus observed.
The observational estimate is from years 1980-1999 of the ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA40, Uppala et al., 2005), and the model
climatologies are calculated for the same period of the CMIP3 20th Century simulations.
10
Air Temperature Differences
Mean Model
ERA40
20
100
12
200
10
20
100
12
200
300
8
4
Typical Error
20
12
200
300
300
500
700
10
100
500
4
500
700
4
1000
90N
700
60
210
200
230
EQ
250
30
220
240
27030
260
290
280
60
1000
90N
90S
300
60
1000
90N
60
30
BCCR-BCM2.0
EQ
30
60
90S
10
20
100
12
200
300
30
EQ
10
30
60
11
CCSM3
10
20
100
12
200
300
BCC-CM1
500
500
4
700
1000
90N
60
30
CGCM3.1(T63)
10
20
100
12
200
300
4
700
1000
CGCM3.1(T47)
EQ
30
60
90S
10
90N
60
30
EQ
20
100
12
200
300
500
CNRM-CM3
500
4
700
4
700
1000
1000
90N
60
CSIRO-Mk3.0
30
EQ
30
60
10
90S
20
100
12
200
300
90N
60
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
30
EQ
30
60
90S
10
20
100
12
200
300
500
4
700
1000
90N
ECHO-G
500
700
1000
60
30
EQ
30
-7.5
SM.8-24
-6
60
90S
-4.5
90S
90N
-3
60
30
-1.5
EQ
30
60
1.5
90S
6
4.5
7.5
30
60
90S
10
Mean Model
ERA40
20
100
12
200
10
20
100
12
200
300
8
4
Typical Error
20
12
200
300
300
500
700
10
100
500
4
500
700
4
1000
90N
700
60
210
200
230
EQ
250
30
220
240
27030
260
290
280
60
1000
90N
90S
300
90N
60
30
GFDL-CM2.0
10
20
12
200
300
EQ
30
60
90S
10
20
100
12
200
300
30
EQ
30
60
10
90S
20
100
12
200
300
GISS-EH
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
10
20
100
12
200
300
30
EQ
30
60
10
90S
20
100
12
200
300
IPSL-CM4
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
10
20
100
12
200
EQ
30
-7.5
-6
60
90S
-4.5
GISS-ER
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
20
100
12
200
90N
60
MIROC3.2(hires)
30
EQ
30
60
10
90N
90S
20
100
12
200
4
700
1000
30
90N
10
500
700
60
300
90N
500
1000
12
1000
90N
300
700
20
200
700
500
10
100
1000
60
INM-CM3.0
11
GFDL-CM2.1
500
700
90N
90S
300
1000
60
500
700
10
30
1000
90N
500
700
1000
60
GISS-AOM
EQ
4
700
90N
500
1000
30
500
700
300
500
60
1000
FGOALS-g1.0
100
1000
-3
60
30
-1.5
EQ
30
60
1.5
90S
90N
4.5
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
7.5
SM.8-25
10
Mean Model
ERA40
20
100
12
200
10
20
100
12
200
300
8
4
Typical Error
20
12
200
300
300
500
700
10
100
500
4
500
700
4
1000
90N
700
60
210
200
230
EQ
250
30
220
240
27030
260
290
280
60
1000
90N
90S
300
90N
60
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
10
20
100
12
200
300
30
EQ
30
60
90S
10
20
100
12
200
300
30
EQ
30
60
10
90S
20
100
12
200
300
60
UKMO-HadGEM1
30
EQ
30
60
90S
10
20
12
200
90N
60
30
EQ
12
200
4
700
1000
30
EQ
30
60
90S
-6
-7.5
SM.8-26
90N
60
30
-3
-4.5
90S
11
10
20
100
60
100
500
1000
60
PCM
300
700
90N
10
30
1000
90N
500
700
1000
60
UKMO-HadCM3
EQ
4
700
90N
500
1000
30
500
700
300
500
60
1000
MIROC3.2(medres)
EQ
30
60
0
-1.5
90S
3
1.5
6
4.5
7.5
30
60
90S
Figures S8.5: Zonal mean shortwave radiation reflected to space:
-2
Reflected SW Radiation at TOA (W m )
The first page of figure S8.5 shows:

Observed and simulated annual-mean, zonally-averaged shortwave radiation reflected to space.
150
125
100
75
50
25
90N
60
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
30
EQ
Latitude
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
30
60
90S
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1
Multi-Model Mean
Obs (ERBE)
SM.8-27
The second page of figure S8.5 shows:

Individual model errors in annual-mean zonally-averaged shortwave radiation reflected to space.
The ERBE (Barkstrom et al., 1989) observational estimates shown here are from 19851989 satellite-based radiometers, and the
model results are for the same period of the CMIP3 20th Century simulations.
-2
SW Radiation Error (W m )
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
90N
60
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
SM.8-28
30
EQ
Latitude
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
30
60
90S
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1
Multi-Model Mean
Figure S8.6: Shortwave radiation reflected to space:

Upper left panel: Observed shortwave radiation reflected to space (W m-2).
Upper center panel: Corresponding field averaged over the multi-model ensemble (W m-2).
All other panels: Corresponding individual model results (W m-2).
Outgoing SW Radiation
ERBE
Mean Model
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
BCC-CM1
40
20
80
60
120
100
160
140
200
180
SM.8-29
ERBE
Mean Model
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
40
20
SM.8-30
80
60
120
100
160
140
200
180
ERBE
Mean Model
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1
40
20
PCM
80
60
120
100
160
140
200
180
SM.8-31

Upper left panel: Observed shortwave radiation reflected to space (W m-2).
Upper center panel: Multi-model mean error (W m-2), simulated minus observed.
Upper right panel: Root-mean-square model error (W m-2), based on all available IPCC model simulations (i.e., square-root of the
sum of the squares of individual model errors, divided by the number of models).
All other panels: Individual model errors (W m-2), simulated minus observed.
Outgoing SW Radiation Difference from ERBE

Mean Model
ERBE
40
20
80
60
120
100
160
140
Typical Error
200
180
10
5
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
20
15
30
25
BCC-CM1
-40
-50
SM.8-32
-20
-30
0
-10
20
10
40
30
50
40
35
50
45
55

Mean Model
ERBE
40
20
80
60
120
100
160
140
Typical Error
200
180
10
5
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
-40
-50
-20
-30
0
-10
20
10
20
15
30
25
40
35
50
45
55
40
30
50
SM.8-33

Mean Model
ERBE
40
20
80
60
120
100
160
140
200
180
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1
-40
SM.8-34
10
5
MIROC3.2(medres)
-50
Typical Error
-20
-30
30
25
PCM
0
-10
20
15
20
10
40
30
50
40
35
50
45
55
Figure S8. 7: Zonal mean outgoing longwave radiation:

Observed and simulated annual-mean, zonally-averaged outgoing longwave radiation.
-2
LW Radiation at TOA (W m )
300
250
200
150
100
90N
60
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
30
EQ
Latitude
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
30
60
90S
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1
Multi-Model Mean
Obs (ERBE)
SM.8-35
The second page of figure S8.7 shows:

Individual model errors in annual-mean zonally-averaged outgoing longwave radiation.
-2
LW Radiation Error (W m )
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
90N
60
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
SM.8-36
30
EQ
Latitude
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
30
60
90S
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1
Multi-Model Mean
Figure S8.8: Outgoing longwave radiation:

Upper left panel: Observed outgoing longwave radiation (W m-2).
Upper center panel: Corresponding field averaged over the multi-model ensemble (W m-2).
All other panels: Corresponding individual model results (W m-2).
Outgoing LW Radiation
ERBE
Mean Model
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
BCC-CM1
100
140
120
180
160
220
200
260
240
300
280
SM.8-37
ERBE
Mean Model
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
100
140
120
SM.8-38
180
160
220
200
260
240
300
280
ERBE
Mean Model
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1
100
140
120
PCM
180
160
220
200
260
240
300
280
SM.8-39

Upper left panel: Observed outgoing longwave radiation (W m-2).
Upper center panel: Multi-model mean error (W m-2), simulated minus observed.
Upper right panel: Root-mean-square model error (W m-2), based on all available IPCC model simulations (i.e., square-root of the
sum of the squares of individual model errors, divided by the number of models).
All other panels: Individual model errors (W m-2), simulated minus observed.
model results are for the same period of the CMIP3 20th Century simulations in the multi-model dataset at PCMDI.
Outgoing LW Radiation Difference from ERBE

Mean Model
ERBE
100
140
120
180
160
220
200
260
240
Typical Error
300
280
10
5
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
20
15
30
25
BCC-CM1
-40
-50
SM.8-40
-20
-30
0
-10
20
10
40
30
50
40
35
50
45
55

Mean Model
ERBE
100
140
120
180
160
220
200
260
240
Typical Error
300
280
10
5
15
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
-40
-50
-20
-30
0
-10
20
10
20
30
25
40
35
50
45
55
40
30
50
SM.8-41

Mean Model
ERBE
100
140
120
180
160
220
200
260
240
300
280
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1
-40
SM.8-42
10
5
MIROC3.2(medres)
-50
Typical Error
-20
-30
15
30
25
PCM
0
-10
20
20
10
40
30
50
40
35
50
45
55
Figure S8.9: Precipitation:

Upper left panel: Observed annual-mean precipitation (cm).
Upper center panel: Corresponding field averaged over the multi-model ensemble (cm).
All other panels: Corresponding individual model results (cm).
Annual Precipitation
CMAP
Mean Model
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
60
30
120
90
180
150
240
210
300
270
330
SM.8-43
CMAP
Mean Model
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
60
30
SM.8-44
120
90
180
150
240
210
300
270
330
CMAP
Mean Model
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1
60
30
120
90
PCM
180
150
240
210
300
270
330
SM.8-45

Upper left panel: Observed annual-mean precipitation climatology (cm).
Upper center panel: Multi-model mean error (cm), simulated minus observed.
Upper right panel: Root-mean-square model error (cm), based on all available IPCC model simulations (i.e., square-root of the sum
All other panels: Individual model errors (cm), simulated minus observed.
The CMAP (Xie and Arkin, 1997) observation-based climatology for 19801999 is shown, and the model results are for the same
period of the CMIP3 20th Century simulations. Observations were not available in the grey regions.
Annual Precipitation Difference from CMAP

Mean Model
CMAP
60
30
120
90
180
150
240
210
Typical Error
300
270
0
330
30
15
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
-120
-150
SM.8-46
-60
-90
0
-30
60
30
60
45
90
75
120
90
150
120
105
150
135

Mean Model
CMAP
60
30
120
90
180
150
240
210
Typical Error
300
270
0
330
30
15
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
-120
-150
-60
-90
0
-30
60
30
60
45
90
75
120
105
150
135
120
90
150
SM.8-47

Mean Model
CMAP
60
30
120
90
180
150
240
210
300
270
0
330
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1
-120
SM.8-48
30
15
MIROC3.2(medres)
-150
Typical Error
-60
-90
45
90
75
PCM
0
-30
60
60
30
120
90
150
120
105
150
135
Figure S8.10: Zonal mean precipitation:

Observed and simulated annual-mean, zonally-averaged precipitation amount.
Annual Precipitation (cm)
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
90N
60
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
30
EQ
Latitude
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
30
60
90S
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1
Multi-Model Mean
Obs (CMAP)
SM.8-49
The second page figure S8.10 shows:

Individual model errors in annual-mean zonally-averaged precipitation amount.
The CMAP (Xie and Arkin, 1997) observation-based climatology for 19801999 is shown, and the model results are for the same
period of the CMIP3 20th Century simulations. Observations were not available in the grey regions.
Annual Precipitation Error (cm)
100
50
0
-50
-100
90N
60
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
SM.8-50
30
EQ
Latitude
ECHO-G
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
30
60
90S
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1
Multi-Model Mean
Figure S8.11: Zonal mean specific humidity cross-sections:

Upper left panel: Observed annual mean specific humidity climatology (g/kg), averaged zonally.
Upper center panel: Corresponding field averaged over the multi-model ensemble (g/kg).
All other panels: Corresponding individual model results (g/kg).
Specific Humidity
ERA40
Mean Model
10
20
100
12
200
300
10
20
100
12
200
300
500
500
4
700
4
700
1000
1000
90N
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
90N
60
30
BCCR-BCM2.0
EQ
30
60
90S
10
20
100
12
200
300
CCSM3
10
20
100
12
200
300
BCC-CM1
500
500
4
700
1000
1000
90N
CGCM3.1(T47)
60
30
CGCM3.1(T63)
10
20
100
12
200
300
4
700
EQ
30
60
90S
10
90N
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
20
100
12
200
300
500
CNRM-CM3
500
4
700
4
700
1000
1000
90N
60
CSIRO-Mk3.0
30
EQ
30
60
10
90S
20
100
12
200
300
90N
60
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
30
EQ
30
60
90S
10
20
100
12
200
300
500
4
700
4
700
1000
90N
ECHO-G
500
1000
60
30
EQ
30
0.1
0.2
60
90S
0.4
90N
0.8
60
30
1.6
EQ
3.2
30
60
6.4
12.8
90S
51.2
25.6
102.4
SM.8-51
Specific Humidity
ERA40
Mean Model
10
20
100
12
200
300
10
20
100
12
200
300
500
500
4
700
4
700
1000
1000
90N
60
FGOALS-g1.0
30
EQ
30
60
10
90S
20
100
12
200
300
90N
60
30
GFDL-CM2.0
EQ
30
60
90S
10
20
100
12
200
300
4
700
60
GISS-AOM
30
EQ
30
60
10
90S
20
100
12
200
300
1000
90N
GISS-EH
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
10
20
100
12
200
300
30
EQ
30
60
10
90S
20
100
12
200
300
IPSL-CM4
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
10
20
100
12
200
300
90N
EQ
30
0.1
SM.8-52
0.2
60
90S
0.4
12
200
90N
60
MIROC3.2(hires)
30
EQ
30
60
10
90N
90S
20
100
12
200
4
700
1000
30
20
100
500
700
60
90S
300
1000
60
500
700
30
1000
90N
500
EQ
700
1000
60
INM-CM3.0
30
4
700
90N
60
500
1000
GISS-ER
500
700
90N
10
300
500
4
700
1000
90N
500
1000
12
500
700
20
200
300
500
GFDL-CM2.1
10
100
1000
0.8
60
30
1.6
EQ
3.2
30
60
6.4
12.8
90S
90N
25.6
60
51.2
30
EQ
102.4
30
60
90S
Specific Humidity
ERA40
Mean Model
10
20
100
12
200
300
10
20
100
12
200
300
500
500
4
700
4
700
1000
1000
90N
60
MIROC3.2(medres)
30
EQ
30
60
10
90S
20
100
12
200
300
90N
60
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
30
EQ
30
60
90S
10
20
100
12
200
300
4
700
60
UKMO-HadCM3
30
EQ
30
60
10
90S
20
100
12
200
300
1000
90N
60
UKMO-HadGEM1
30
EQ
30
60
90S
10
90N
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
20
100
12
200
300
500
500
4
700
4
700
1000
90N
4
700
1000
90N
500
1000
12
200
500
700
20
100
300
500
PCM
10
1000
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
0.2
0.1
90N
60
30
0.8
0.4
EQ
30
60
3.2
1.6
90S
12.8
6.4
51.2
25.6
102.4
SM.8-53

Upper left panel: Observed annual mean specific humidity climatology (g/kg), averaged zonally.
Upper center panel: Multi-model mean fractional error, expressed as a percent (i.e., simulated minus observed, divided by observed
and multiplied by 100).
Upper right panel: Root-mean-square model fractional error, expressed as a percent, based on all available IPCC model simulations.
All other panels: Individual model errors, expressed as a percent (i.e., simulated minus observed, divided by observed and
multiplied by 100).
The observational estimate is from the 40-year European Reanalysis (ERA40, Uppala et al., 2005) based on observations over the
period 1980-1999. The model results are from the same period of the CMIP3 20th Century simulations.
10
Mean Model
ERA40
20
100
12
200
Specific Humidity
10
20
100
12
200
300
8
4
Typical Error
20
12
200
300
300
500
700
10
100
500
4
500
700
4
1000
90N
700
60
0.2
0.1
0.8
EQ
3.2
30
0.4
1.6
12.830
6.4
25.6
51.2
60
1000
90N
90S
102.4
60
20
10
1000
90N
60
30
BCCR-BCM2.0
EQ
30
60
90S
10
20
100
12
200
300
30
30
40
EQ
50
60
80
60
100
30
70
90
CCSM3
10
20
100
12
200
300
BCC-CM1
500
500
4
700
1000
90N
60
30
CGCM3.1(T63)
10
20
100
12
200
300
4
700
1000
CGCM3.1(T47)
EQ
30
60
90S
10
90N
60
30
EQ
20
100
12
200
300
500
CNRM-CM3
500
4
700
4
700
1000
1000
90N
60
CSIRO-Mk3.0
30
EQ
30
60
10
90S
20
100
12
200
300
90N
60
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
30
EQ
30
60
90S
10
20
100
12
200
300
500
4
700
1000
90N
ECHO-G
500
700
1000
60
30
EQ
30
-50
SM.8-54
-40
60
90S
-30
90S
90N
-20
60
30
-10
EQ
30
60
10
20
90S
40
30
50
30
60
90S
10
Mean Model
ERA40
20
100
12
200
Specific Humidity
10
20
100
12
200
300
8
4
Typical Error
20
12
200
300
300
500
700
10
100
500
4
500
700
4
1000
90N
700
60
0.2
0.1
0.8
EQ
3.2
30
0.4
1.6
12.830
6.4
25.6
51.2
60
1000
90N
90S
102.4
90N
60
30
GFDL-CM2.0
10
20
12
200
300
EQ
30
60
90S
10
20
100
12
200
300
30
EQ
30
60
10
90S
20
100
12
200
300
GISS-EH
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
10
20
100
12
200
300
30
EQ
30
60
10
90S
20
100
12
200
300
IPSL-CM4
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
10
20
100
12
200
EQ
30
-50
-40
60
90S
-30
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
20
100
12
200
90N
60
MIROC3.2(hires)
30
EQ
30
60
10
90N
90S
20
100
12
200
4
700
1000
30
GISS-ER
500
700
60
90N
10
300
90N
500
1000
1000
90N
300
700
12
700
500
20
200
1000
60
INM-CM3.0
10
100
500
700
90N
90
300
1000
70
90S
GFDL-CM2.1
500
700
60
100
1000
90N
500
80
30
700
1000
60
GISS-AOM
50
60
4
700
90N
EQ
500
1000
30
40
500
700
30
300
500
20
60
10
1000
FGOALS-g1.0
100
1000
-20
60
30
-10
EQ
30
60
10
20
90S
90N
30
60
40
30
EQ
30
60
90S
50
SM.8-55
10
Mean Model
ERA40
20
100
12
200
Specific Humidity
10
20
100
12
200
300
8
4
Typical Error
20
12
200
300
300
500
700
10
100
500
4
500
700
4
1000
90N
700
60
0.2
0.1
0.8
EQ
3.2
30
0.4
1.6
12.830
6.4
25.6
51.2
60
1000
90N
90S
102.4
90N
60
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
10
20
100
12
200
300
30
EQ
30
60
90S
10
20
100
12
200
300
30
EQ
30
60
10
90S
20
100
12
200
300
60
UKMO-HadGEM1
30
EQ
30
60
90S
10
12
90N
60
30
EQ
12
200
1000
EQ
30
60
90S
-40
-50
SM.8-56
20
200
700
30
90N
60
30
-20
-30
90S
90
10
20
100
60
70
100
500
1000
60
100
1000
90N
700
80
30
PCM
300
500
90N
50
60
700
1000
60
UKMO-HadCM3
EQ
4
700
90N
30
40
500
1000
30
500
700
20
300
500
60
10
1000
MIROC3.2(medres)
EQ
30
60
0
-10
90S
20
10
40
30
50
30
60
90S
Figure S8.12: Ocean potential temperature cross-sections:

Upper left panel: Observed annual mean potential temperature climatology (C), averaged zonally over all ocean basins.
The observations are from the 2004 World Ocean Atlas (WOA-2004) compiled by Levitus et al. (2005) for the period 1957-1990,
and model results are for the same period of the CMIP3 20th Century simulations.
Global Ocean Potential Temperature : Zonal Mean
Levitus
Mean Model
200
200
400
400
600
600
800
800
1000
1000
2000
2000
3000
3000
4000
4000
5000
90N
60
30
EQ
30
60
5000
90N
90S
60
BCCR-BCM2.0
BCC-CM1
30
EQ
30
60
90S
CCSM3
200
200
400
400
600
600
800
800
1000
1000
2000
2000
3000
3000
4000
4000
5000
90N
CGCM3.1(T47)
60
CGCM3.1(T63)
30
EQ
30
60
5000
90N
90S
200
200
200
400
400
400
600
600
600
800
800
800
1000
1000
1000
2000
2000
2000
3000
3000
3000
4000
4000
5000
90N
60
CSIRO-Mk3.0
30
EQ
30
60
60
30
EQ
30
60
5000
90N
90S
ECHO-G
200
200
400
400
600
600
800
EQ
30
60
90S
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
30
EQ
30
60
90S
800
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
1000
1000
2000
2000
3000
3000
4000
5000
90N
30
4000
5000
90N
90S
60
CNRM-CM3
4000
60
30
EQ
-2.5
30
60
90S
2.5
10
7.5
15
12.5
20
17.5
5000
90N
60
22.5
25
27.5
SM.8-57
Global Ocean Potential Temperature: Zonal Mean
Levitus
Mean Model
200
200
400
400
600
600
800
800
1000
1000
2000
2000
3000
3000
4000
4000
5000
90N
60
FGOALS-g1.0
30
EQ
30
60
5000
90N
90S
60
GFDL-CM2.0
200
200
400
400
600
600
800
800
1000
1000
2000
2000
3000
3000
4000
30
EQ
30
60
90S
GFDL-CM2.1
4000
5000
90N
60
GISS-AOM
30
EQ
30
60
5000
90N
90S
GISS-EH
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
GISS-ER
200
200
200
400
400
400
600
600
600
800
800
800
1000
1000
1000
2000
2000
2000
3000
3000
3000
4000
4000
4000
5000
90N
5000
90N
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
IPSL-CM4
INM-CM3.0
0
-2.5
SM.8-58
5
2.5
60
30
EQ
30
60
5000
90N
90S
200
200
400
400
600
600
800
800
1000
1000
2000
2000
3000
3000
4000
4000
5000
90N
60
7.5
30
10
EQ
12.5
30
15
60
90S
17.5
60
MIROC3.2(hires)
20
5000
90N
60
22.5
25
30
EQ
30
60
90S
30
EQ
30
60
90S
27.5
Global Ocean Potential Temperature: Zonal Mean
Levitus
Mean Model
200
200
400
400
600
600
800
800
1000
1000
2000
2000
3000
3000
4000
4000
5000
90N
60
MIROC3.2(medres)
30
EQ
30
60
5000
90N
90S
60
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
30
EQ
30
60
90S
PCM
200
200
200
400
400
400
600
600
600
800
800
800
1000
1000
1000
2000
2000
2000
3000
3000
3000
4000
4000
5000
90N
60
UKMO-HadCM3
30
EQ
30
60
4000
5000
90N
90S
60
30
EQ
30
60
5000
90N
90S
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
0
200
400
600
800
UKMO-HadGEM1
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
90N
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
0
-2.5
5
2.5
10
7.5
15
12.5
20
17.5
25
22.5
27.5
SM.8-59

Upper left panel: Observed annual mean potential temperature climatology (C), averaged zonally over all ocean basins.
Upper right panel: Root-mean-square model error (C), based on all available IPCC model simulations (i.e., square-root of the sum
Global Ocean Potential Temperature Difference: Zonal Mean

Mean Model
Levitus
200
400
400
400
600
800
600
800
600
1000
1000
800
2000
2000
1000
3000
3000
2000
4000
5000
90N
60
-2.5
530
2.5
10
7.5
15
EQ
12.5
30
20
17.5
25
22.5
60
90S
4000
5000
90N
3000
27.5
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
0
200
400
400
600
600
800
800
1000
1000
2000
2000
3000
3000
60
30
CGCM3.1(T63)
EQ
30
60
90S
5000
90N
200
200
200
400
400
400
600
600
600
800
800
800
1000
1000
1000
2000
2000
2000
3000
3000
3000
4000
4000
4000
5000
90N
5000
90N
30
60
90S
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
5000
90N
ECHO-G
200
200
400
400
600
600
800
3.260
2.8
90S
3.6
30
EQ
30
60
90S
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
30
EQ
30
60
90S
800
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
1000
1000
2000
2000
3000
3000
4000
4000
5000
90N
1.2
2.430
60
CNRM-CM3
EQ
1.6 EQ
4000
5000
90N
30
30
CCSM3
200
4000
CGCM3.1(T47)
0.8
60
0.4
5000
90N
BCC-CM1
60
4000
BCCR-BCM2.0
CSIRO-Mk3.0
Typical Error
200
200
60
30
EQ
30
-2.5
SM.8-60
-2
60
90S
-1.5
-1
0
-0.5
1
0.5
5000
90N
1.5
60
2.5

Mean Model
Levitus
200
400
400
400
600
800
600
800
600
1000
1000
800
2000
2000
1000
3000
3000
2000
4000
5000
90N
60
-2.5
530
2.5
10
7.5
15
EQ
12.5
30
20
17.5
25
22.5
60
90S
Typical Error
200
200
4000
5000
90N
3000
4000
27.5
0.4
5000
90N
FGOALS-g1.0
60
30
GFDL-CM2.0
200
200
400
400
600
600
800
800
1000
1000
2000
2000
3000
3000
4000
0.8
60
EQ
30
60
30
1.6 EQ
1.2
2.430
2
3.260
2.8
90S
3.6
90S
GFDL-CM2.1
4000
5000
90N
60
GISS-AOM
30
EQ
30
60
90S
5000
90N
GISS-EH
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
GISS-ER
200
200
200
400
400
400
600
600
600
800
800
800
1000
1000
1000
2000
2000
2000
3000
3000
3000
4000
4000
5000
90N
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
INM-CM3.0
4000
5000
90N
IPSL-CM4
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
200
200
400
400
600
600
800
800
1000
1000
2000
2000
3000
3000
5000
90N
-2.5
-1.5
60
MIROC3.2(hires)
4000
-2
5000
90N
30
EQ
30
60
90S
30
EQ
30
60
90S
4000
-1
60
30
-0.5
EQ
30
60
0.5
90S
5000
90N
1.5
60
2.5
SM.8-61

Mean Model
Levitus
200
400
400
400
600
800
600
800
600
1000
1000
800
2000
2000
1000
3000
3000
2000
4000
5000
90N
60
-2.5
530
2.5
10
7.5
15
EQ
12.5
30
20
17.5
25
22.5
60
90S
4000
5000
90N
3000
4000
27.5
60
30
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
EQ
30
60
90S
200
200
400
400
400
600
600
600
800
800
800
1000
1000
1000
2000
2000
2000
3000
3000
3000
4000
4000
4000
5000
90N
5000
90N
30
EQ
30
60
90S
0.8
60
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
30
1.6 EQ
1.2
5000
90N
60
30
EQ
0
200
400
600
800
UKMO-HadGEM1
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
90N
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
-2
-2.5
SM.8-62
-1
-1.5
0
-0.5
1
0.5
2.430
3.260
2.8
90S
3.6
PCM
200
60
0.4
5000
90N
MIROC3.2(medres)
UKMO-HadCM3
Typical Error
200
200
2
1.5
2.5
30
60
90S
Figure S8.13: Ocean salinity cross-sections:

Upper left panel: Observed annual mean salinity (PSU), averaged zonally over all ocean basins.
Upper center panel: Corresponding field averaged over the multi-model ensemble (PSU).
All other panels: Corresponding individual model results (PSU).
Global Ocean Salinity: Zonal Mean
Levitus
Mean Model
200
200
400
400
600
600
800
800
1000
1000
2000
2000
3000
3000
4000
4000
5000
90N
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
BCC-CM1
5000
90N
30
EQ
30
60
90S
CCSM3
0
200
200
400
400
600
600
800
800
1000
1000
2000
2000
3000
3000
4000
4000
5000
90N
CGCM3.1(T47)
60
BCCR-BCM2.0
60
30
CGCM3.1(T63)
EQ
30
60
90S
5000
90N
200
200
200
400
400
400
600
600
600
800
800
800
1000
1000
1000
2000
2000
2000
3000
3000
3000
4000
4000
4000
5000
90N
5000
90N
60
CSIRO-Mk3.0
30
EQ
30
60
90S
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
CNRM-CM3
5000
90N
0
200
400
600
800
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
1000
ECHO-G
2000
3000
4000
5000
90N
60
30
EQ
30
33
60
33.25
90S
33.5
33.75
34.25
34
34.75
34.5
35.25
35
35.75
SM.8-63
Levitus
Mean Model
200
200
400
400
600
600
800
800
1000
1000
2000
2000
3000
3000
4000
4000
5000
90N
60
FGOALS-g1.0
30
EQ
30
60
90S
5000
90N
200
200
400
400
600
600
800
800
1000
1000
2000
2000
3000
3000
4000
60
30
GFDL-CM2.0
EQ
30
60
90S
GFDL-CM2.1
4000
5000
90N
60
GISS-AOM
30
EQ
30
60
90S
5000
90N
GISS-EH
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
GISS-ER
200
200
200
400
400
400
600
600
600
800
800
800
1000
1000
1000
2000
2000
2000
3000
3000
3000
4000
4000
4000
5000
90N
5000
90N
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
INM-CM3.0
SM.8-64
30
EQ
30
60
90S
5000
90N
200
400
400
600
600
800
800
1000
1000
2000
2000
3000
3000
4000
4000
60
30
34
EQ
34.25
30
60
34.5
90S
34.75
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
MIROC3.2(hires)
200
33.75
33.5
60
5000
90N
33.25
33
IPSL-CM4
5000
90N
35
35.25
35.75
Levitus
Mean Model
200
200
400
400
600
600
800
800
1000
1000
2000
2000
3000
3000
4000
4000
5000
90N
60
MIROC3.2(medres)
30
EQ
30
60
90S
5000
90N
60
30
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
EQ
30
60
90S
PCM
200
200
200
400
400
400
600
600
600
800
800
800
1000
1000
1000
2000
2000
2000
3000
3000
3000
4000
4000
5000
90N
60
UKMO-HadCM3
30
EQ
30
60
90S
4000
5000
90N
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
5000
90N
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
0
200
400
600
800
UKMO-HadGEM1
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
90N
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
33.25
33
33.75
33.5
34.25
34
34.75
34.5
35.25
35
35.75
SM.8-65

Upper left panel: Observed annual mean salinity (PSU), averaged zonally over all ocean basins.
Upper center panel: Multi-model mean error (PSU), simulated minus observed.
Upper right panel: Root-mean-square model error (PSU), based on all available IPCC model simulations (i.e., square-root of the sum
All other panels: Individual model errors (PSU), simulated minus observed.
Global Ocean Salinity Difference: Zonal Mean

Mean Model
Levitus
200
400
400
400
600
800
600
800
600
1000
1000
800
2000
2000
1000
3000
3000
2000
4000
5000
90N
60
33.25
33
30
33.75
33.5
EQ
34.25
34
30
34.75
34.5
35.25
35
60
90S
4000
5000
90N
3000
35.75
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
0
200
400
400
600
600
800
800
1000
1000
2000
2000
3000
3000
60
30
CGCM3.1(T63)
EQ
30
60
90S
5000
90N
200
200
200
400
400
400
600
600
600
800
800
800
1000
1000
1000
2000
2000
2000
3000
3000
3000
4000
4000
CSIRO-Mk3.0
30
60
90S
EQ
1.5
1.25
2
1.75
90S
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
5000
90N
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
800
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
2000
3000
4000
-1
SM.8-66
-0.8
60
90S
-0.6
2.75
4000
5000
90N
1000
30
90S
60
600
EQ
30
400
30
60
EQ
200
60
2.25
2.5
30
5000
90N
30
60
CNRM-CM3
EQ
0.75
4000
5000
90N
30
30
CCSM3
200
4000
CGCM3.1(T47)
0.5
60
0.25
5000
90N
BCC-CM1
60
4000
BCCR-BCM2.0
5000
90N
Typical Error
200
200
-0.4
0
-0.2
0.4
0.2
0.8
0.6

Mean Model
Levitus
200
400
400
400
600
800
600
800
600
1000
1000
800
2000
2000
1000
3000
3000
2000
4000
5000
90N
60
33.25
33
30
33.75
33.5
EQ
34.25
34
30
34.75
34.5
35.25
35
60
90S
Typical Error
200
200
4000
5000
90N
3000
4000
35.75
60
30
GFDL-CM2.0
200
200
400
400
600
600
800
800
1000
1000
2000
2000
3000
3000
4000
0.5
60
0.25
5000
90N
FGOALS-g1.0
EQ
30
60
30
0.75
EQ
1.5
1.25
30
1.75
2.25
2.5
60
90S
2.75
90S
GFDL-CM2.1
4000
5000
90N
60
GISS-AOM
30
EQ
30
60
90S
5000
90N
GISS-EH
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
GISS-ER
200
200
200
400
400
400
600
600
600
800
800
800
1000
1000
1000
2000
2000
2000
3000
3000
3000
4000
4000
5000
90N
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
INM-CM3.0
4000
5000
90N
IPSL-CM4
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
200
200
400
400
600
600
800
800
1000
1000
2000
2000
3000
3000
5000
90N
-1
-0.6
60
MIROC3.2(hires)
4000
-0.8
5000
90N
30
EQ
30
60
90S
30
EQ
30
60
90S
4000
-0.4
60
30
-0.2
EQ
30
60
0.2
0.4
90S
5000
90N
0.6
60
0.8
SM.8-67

Mean Model
Levitus
200
400
400
400
600
800
600
800
600
1000
1000
800
2000
2000
1000
3000
3000
2000
4000
5000
90N
60
33.25
33
30
33.75
33.5
EQ
34.25
34
30
34.75
34.5
35.25
35
60
90S
4000
5000
90N
3000
4000
35.75
60
30
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
EQ
30
60
90S
200
200
400
400
400
600
600
600
800
800
800
1000
1000
1000
2000
2000
2000
3000
3000
3000
4000
4000
UKMO-HadCM3
30
EQ
30
60
90S
0.5
60
30
0.75
EQ
1.5
1.25
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
5000
90N
60
30
EQ
200
400
600
800
UKMO-HadGEM1
1000
2000
3000
4000
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
-0.8
-1
SM.8-68
-0.4
-0.6
1.75
30
2.25
2.5
60
90S
2.75
4000
5000
90N
5000
90N
PCM
200
60
0.25
5000
90N
MIROC3.2(medres)
5000
90N
Typical Error
200
200
0
-0.2
0.4
0.2
0.8
0.6
30
60
90S
Figure S8.14: Zonal mean net surface heat flux:

Figure S8.14 shows:
Annual mean, zonally averaged, total surface heat flux into the oceans.
Net Surface Heat Flux (W m-2)
The observational estimates are from da Silva (1994) and are based on COADS observations over the period 1945-1989. The
model results are from years 1980-1999 of the CMIP3 20th Century simulations.
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
90N
60
BCC-CM1
BCCR-BCM2.0
CCSM3
CGCM3.1(T47)
CGCM3.1(T63)
CNRM-CM3
CSIRO-Mk3.0
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
ECHO-G
30
EQ
Latitude
FGOALS-g1.0
GFDL-CM2.0
GFDL-CM2.1
GISS-AOM
GISS-EH
GISS-ER
INM-CM3.0
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
30
60
90S
MIROC3.2(medres)
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
PCM
UKMO-HadCM3
UKMO-HadGEM1
Multi-Model Mean
Obs (COADS)
SM.8-69
Figure S8.15: Ocean meridional overturning streamfunction:

Each page of figure S8.15 shows:
Upper center panel: Ocean meridional overturning streamfunction, averaged over the multi-model ensemble (Sv).
All other panels: Corresponding individual model results (Sv).
Global Ocean Meridional Overturning Streamfunction

Mean Model
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
90N
60
30
BCCR-BCM2.0
EQ
30
60
90S
0
200
400
600
800
BCC-CM1
CCSM3
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
90N
CGCM3.1(T47)
60
30
CGCM3.1(T63)
200
200
400
400
600
600
800
800
1000
1000
2000
2000
3000
3000
4000
EQ
30
60
90S
CNRM-CM3
4000
5000
90N
60
CSIRO-Mk3.0
30
EQ
30
60
90S
5000
90N
200
200
400
400
600
600
800
800
1000
1000
2000
2000
3000
3000
4000
4000
5000
90N
60
30
EQ
30
-50
SM.8-70
-40
60
90S
-30
60
ECHAM5/MPI-OM
5000
90N
30
EQ
30
60
90S
ECHO-G
-20
60
30
-10
EQ
30
60
10
20
90S
40
30
50

Mean Model
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
90N
FGOALS-g1.0
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
GFDL-CM2.1
200
200
400
400
600
600
800
800
GFDL-CM2.0
1000
1000
2000
2000
3000
3000
4000
4000
5000
90N
60
GISS-AOM
30
EQ
30
60
5000
90N
90S
GISS-ER
200
200
400
400
600
600
800
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
30
EQ
30
60
90S
800
GISS-EH
1000
1000
2000
2000
3000
3000
4000
4000
5000
90N
60
INM-CM3.0
30
EQ
30
60
90S
5000
90N
IPSL-CM4
MIROC3.2(hires)
200
200
200
400
400
400
600
600
600
800
800
800
1000
1000
1000
2000
2000
2000
3000
3000
3000
4000
4000
4000
5000
90N
5000
90N
60
30
EQ
30
-50
-40
60
90S
-30
-20
60
30
-10
EQ
30
60
10
20
90S
5000
90N
30
60
40
50
SM.8-71

Mean Model
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
90N
MIROC3.2(medres)
200
200
400
400
600
600
800
800
1000
1000
2000
2000
3000
3000
4000
4000
5000
90N
60
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
30
60
90S
5000
90N
60
30
EQ
30
60
90S
UKMO-HadGEM1
-40
-50
EQ
PCM
UKMO-HadCM3
SM.8-72
30
MRI-CGCM2.3.2
-20
-30
0
-10
20
10
40
30
50
Supplementary Table for Section 8.8

Table S8.1 Parameter values used in a simple climate model (MAGICC) to approximately reproduce results from the AOGCM multi-model dataset at PCMDI.
AOGCM
F2
Teff
RLO
(W m2)
(C)
(cm2 s1)
3: CCSM3
3.95
2.37
1.73
1.18
4: CGCM3.1(T47)
3.32
3.02
1.57
1.58
6: CNRM-CM3
3.71
2.45
1.21
1.10
7: CSIRO-Mk3.0
3.47
2.21
2.03
1.33
8: ECHAM5/MPI-OM
4.01
3.86
1.22
1.41
9: ECHO-G
3.71
3.01
2.01
1.65
10: FGOALS-g1.0
3.71
1.97
4.57
1.64
11: GFDL-CM2.0
3.50
2.35
1.42
1.47
12: GFDL-CM2.1
3.50
2.28
2.23
1.58
14: GISS-EH
4.06
3.04
2.35
1.21
15: GISS-ER
4.06
2.57
4.42
1.44
16: INM-CM3.0
3.71
2.28
0.79
1.10
17: IPSL-CM4
3.48
3.83
1.94
1.26
18: MIROC3.2(hires)
3.14
5.87
1.18
1.15
19: MIROC3.2(medres)
3.09
3.93
2.29
1.58
20: MRI-CGCM2.3.2
3.47
2.97
1.22
1.45
21: PCM
3.71
1.88
1.57
1.45
22: UKMO-HadCM3
3.81
3.06
1.01
1.65a
23: UKMO-HadGEM1
3.78
2.63
1.32
1.20
Notes:
F2: radiative forcing for doubled CO2 concentration (with stratospheric adjustment). Where available, values were taken from Forster
and Taylor (2006), supplemented with information from the modelling groups. The default value is 3.71 Wm-2 taken from Myhre et al.
(1998).
Teff: effective climate sensitivity at the time of doubled CO2 concentration, as defined in the glossary and discussed in Section 8.8.2.
k: ocean effective vertical diffusivity.
RLO: ratio of the equilibrium temperature changes over land versus ocean.
a
This value was set from the AOGCM information rather than being tuned in the optimization procedure.
Appendix 8.A:
Supplementary Figures and Tables
SM.8-73

Chapter 8 Supplementary Material Appendix 8.a. Supplementary Figures and Tables

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8

This chapter should be cited as:

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Each page of figure S8.1b shows:

Merged Surface Temperature Difference from CRU/HadISST

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Merged Surface Temperature Difference from CRU/HadISST

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Merged Surface Temperature Difference from CRU/HadISST

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Figure S8.2: Surface temperature standard deviation:

Merged Surface Temperature: Standard Deviation over Time

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Merged Surface Temperature: Standard Deviation over Time

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Merged Surface Temperature: Standard Deviation over Time

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Each page of figure S8.2b shows:

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Figure S8.3: Diurnal range of surface air temperature over land:

Diurnal Temperature Range

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Diurnal Temperature Range (K)

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Diurnal Temperature Range (K)

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Each page of figure S8.3b shows:

Diurnal Temperature Range Difference from CRU (K)

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Diurnal Temperature Range Difference from CRU (K)

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Diurnal Temperature Range Difference from CRU (K)

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Figure S8.3c shows:

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Figure S8.4: Zonal mean air temperature cross-sections:

Climate Models and Their Evaluation

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8

Supplementary Material: Chapter 8