NuclearEnergy: Canitbethechoicefor sustainablefuture?

2nd Annual MENANuclearConstructionConference September2627,2011,

Energy demand growth Is nuclear power an option? K.A.CARE Research, Development & Innovation Post Fukushima outlook

Projected growth in fossil fuel consumption for domestic energy demand

Fossil fuel consumption for domestic energy demand MBOE/D1 8.3 Electricity peak demand3 GW2 120

71 3.4 43

2010

2028

2010

2020

2030

At current pace, domestic consumption of fossil fuels is expected to nearly triple by 2030
1 MBOE/D = million barrels of oil equivalent per day 2 GW = gigawatt (power generation capacity) 3 Corresponding annual electricity demands: 240 TWh in 2010, 400 TWh in 2020, 640 TWh in 2030. TWh= terawatthour

Ramifications of unabated growth in fuel consumption to power the Saudi economy

Environmental CO2 footprint NOx footprint SO2 footprint Strategic Diminishedswingcapacity Compromisedglobalenergystability Economic Squanderedeconomicopportunityofgargantuan magnitude
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Energy demand growth Is nuclear power an option? K.A.CARE Research, Development & Innovation Post Fukushima outlook

Breakdown of load profile in Saudi Arabia

Additional summer load = 35% of annual peak load

Average annual load = 65% of annual peak load

Average winter load = 55% of annual peak load

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Load matching options

Summer-efficient + low CAPEX/high OPEX technologies

Multipurpose must-run technology

Must-run generation technology, with electricity generation as primary function

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Possible choices of technologies to meet load

Solar fossil generation

Geothermal (open cycle) Concentrated solar

Nuclear large hydro geothermal (closed cycle) Waste-to-energy Concentrated solar (storage)

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Is nuclear power an option?

Baseload demand
OnlymaturetechnologyavailableforSaudiArabiathat isnotbasedonfossilfuelandiseconomicallyviable Demandcenters,basedonindustrializedeconomy, commensuratewithnucleargenerationprofile

Fossilfuelsaving Highloadfactor highfossilfuelsaving Overallcarbonfootprintreduction Negligiblecarbonfootprint Keyenablertoindustrialcarbonfootprintreduction

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Theoretical technical ceiling for nuclear deployment by 2030

110 GW 60 GW 40~60nuclearreactorsconnected tothegridbetween2020and2030

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Energy demand growth Is nuclear power an option? K.A.CARE Research, Development & Innovation Post Fukushima outlook

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The establishment of K.A.CARE

April 17, 2010

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K.A.CARE mandate

Suggested alternative energy mix

Sustainable and efficient energy future for KSA

use of alternative sustainable and reliable resources ... reduces dependency on hydrocarbon resources and keep them as a source for income for a longer period of time...
(Royal Order No. A/35, 17/4/2010)

Proposed execution plans

Plans for development of physical city

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Illustrative example of a plausible energy mix

Wind/ OtherRen SolarPV SolarCST Nuclear New Additional Fossil

Present Fossil Mix

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High level milestones of alternative energy strategy

Capacity ramp up

Nuclear

Sites for 1st wave of reactors selected vendors shortlisted

Ground breaking on 1st reactor performed by 2014

2011

2015

2020

2025

2030

Renewables

1st project kicked off

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Overview of the execution plans

Policy

Laws and regulations

Investment vehicles and strategy

Approval and publishing

of a national policy on nuclear and renewable energy

Development of laws and

regulation Creation of nuclear regulator Ratification of treaties

Creation of Alternative
Energy Technology Company Setup of loan guarantees and soft loan programs

Operating model

R&D and human capital development

Creation of holding
company for nuclear power Formation of standalone off-taker for sector

Development of R&D
capabilities Development of engineers, technicians and other specialists

K.A.CAREs plans to execute strategy are built around 5 important enablers, requiring solid commitment and dynamic leadership
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Enabling the development of a sustainable energy mix

Sustainable Energy Mix

National Economic Framework

National legal Framework

Value Chain

National HR

R&D&T

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Nationallegalframework

1. NationalPolicyStatement 2. NationalNuclearEnergyLaw 3. NationalRenewableEnergyLaw 4. NationalNuclearRegulator

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Nationaleconomicandinvestmentframework

1. OffTakingMechanism 2. OffTakerOrganization 3. FundingMechanism 4. Economic&TechnologyEnablers

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Components of the K.A.CARE City

The KA-CARE city will include the following

National Sustainable Energy Laboratory Industrial clusters Alternative energy farm Energy park Technical training institutions Technical incubators Commercial facilities Convention centers, exhibition halls and other public amenities KA-CARE headquarters and residential facilities Basic infrastructure

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Energy demand growth Is nuclear power an option? K.A.CARE Research, Development & Innovation Post Fukushima outlook

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The K.A.CARE Technical Program provides technical competencies required to achieve its critical outcomes
Inputs Outcomes

Technical Program Operations

National Strategy Mission / Vision Advisory Committee Technology Foresight Funding Govt Funds Energy Rate Fees Private Endowments People Existing Engineers and Managers International Hires Economic, Standards,and PolicyAnalysis Capacity Building Scholarships, Outreach, Training Industrial Development Program IPMgmt., Business Development

Knowledge Production Publications Collaborations World Class Research Government Regulatory Support Management Support Energy Workforce Researchers Managers Plant Operators Industry Formation New Ventures Technical Assistance to Companies Commercial Partnerships Intellectual Property

R&D Program
R&D Planning, Agenda Staffing, Equipment, Buildings, Operations

Nuclear Technology, Renewable Energy, Energy Efficiency

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KA-CAREs National Sustainable Energy Laboratory provides the foundation for the Technical Program

KACARE NATIONAL SUSTAINABLE ENERGY LABORATORY

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The principle responsibility of the lab is execution of the R&D and Innovation Program
Support Functions LeadershipTeam (structureTBD)
Support Services Safetyand Security Environmental Health&Safety City Infrastructure Development Strategic Management Office Knowledge Management System Technology Foresight Business Intelligence

R&DandInnovation Program

Nuclear Program

Renewable Energy Program

Energy Efficiency Program

CrossFunctional Technologies Program

EnergyPolicy &Regulation Support

R&DPlanning andFunding

HumanCapacity Development

Energy Industrialization Program

Thisstructureisinfluencedbyworldclasspracticesatinternational energylaboratories,suchastheU.S.Dept.ofEnergyandEuropeanlabs.

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Each program is focused on achieving KA-CARE goals while engaging university and industry resources

NuclearProgram
Contributetothesustainableuseandindustriesrelatedtoatomicenergyforpeacefulpurposesthat supportspeopleintheKSA. Buildatechnicalbaseinthefieldofgeneratingpowerandinthemedicalandindustrialfields.

RenewableEnergyProgram
Renewableenergytechnologyresearchanddevelopmentprogramthatenablessignificantand optimizeddeploymentofrenewabletechnologiesindesertenvironments

EnergyEfficiencyProgram
Technologyandoutreachprogramthatenablesefficientuseofenergy,costsavings,and conservationofresourcesbyKSAindustry&residents.

Cross Functional TechnologiesProgram

Providesupportinkeyareasoftechnologythatenable themissiondirectedprograms

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Nuclear Strategic Objectives 2015 Design, construct, staff, and commission a new KACARE nuclear research facility Saudi nuclear leadership staff development Integration with domestic, foreign universities Regulatory and industrial support services 2021 Enable KSA completion of safe and sustainable nuclear plants and enhanced participation in the KSA nuclear technology value chain Generation III or Generation III+ technology 2030 Enable KSA deployment of advanced power plants and enhanced participation in the global advanced nuclear technology value chain Small modular reactors, High Temperature and Generation IV Innovative adaptation of global technologies to saline desert environments
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Detail: Research Reactor (continued)

KACARENationalNuclearLaboratory

Supportnuclearengineeringeducation,
materials,licensing,safety,testing, scientific,industrialandmedicalresearch Nopowerproduction Capabilitytohandlelargeradioactive sources

Partnerships,UserFacilities,Budget

Possiblepartnershipwithpowerplantvendor Operateasauserfacilitywithindustry,KACST,KAU,KFUPM,KSUandKAUST Construction:$120$200million Operations:$75$100million/yr Reactorstaffing:100 300 TechnicalSupportServicesstaffing:75150

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Energy demand growth Is nuclear power an option? K.A.CARE Research, Development & Innovation Post Fukushima outlook

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Historical perspective and lessons learned: TMI

Incomplete understanding of nuclear reactor fundamentals

TMI
Human factors + user interface engineering

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Historical perspective and lessons learned: Chernobyl

Reactor design

Chernobyl
Inadequate safety culture

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Historical perspective and lessons learned: Fukushima

Force majeure

Fukushima
Regulatory capture

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Historical perspective and lessons learned: Key lessons for Saudi Arabia

Nuclearreactordesignandconstruction: Deploythemostmatureandroadtested Thisisatogetherprocessthatmustbemanaged andconductedassuch Nuclearregulatoryfunction: Onlyanindependentregulatorybodycanbe expectedtoactandreactsafely Nuclearreactoroperation: Focusiscritical,andshouldbestrictlyguidedbythe industrysbestpractice
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Nuclear outlook for Saudi Arabia

Nuclearreactordesignandconstruction: GenIII/III+ Passivesafetymeasures Operationaltrackrecord Nuclearregulatoryfunction: Completeindependence Comprehensivejurisdiction Nuclearreactoroperation: Safetyfirst,safetyalways Unwaveringcommitmenttotransparency
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Thank you