Family and Community Medicine I

Fundamentals of Statistical Inference

Dr. Maribel U. Cruz January 29, 2012 4.2

Statistical Inference It is the process of generalizing or drawing conclusions about the target population on the basis of results obtained from a sample.

Suppose the random sample of size n = 7 consisting of student 2, 4, 5, 6, 10, 13, 15 were drawn, compute for the statistics corresponding to the computed parameters. Types of Statistical Inference Estimation the process by which a statistic computed for a random sample is used to approximate (estimate) the corresponding parameter ex. Ave. length of stay in the hospital . Hypothesis Testin set of procedures that Testing culminates in either the rejection or the non nonrejection of the null hypothesis Schema for the Process of Hypothesis Testing

Applications of Statistical Inference A group of Barangay Health Workers in a family planning clinic conducted a study to determine the proportion of women in the community taking OCP having gained weight. PLM clerks wanted to measure the risk of developing upper respiratory tract infection in a community situated near a garment factory.

Types of Statistical Inference Estimation Hypothesis testing

Schematic Diagram of the Concepts of Statistical Inference

Steps in Hypothesis Testing Difference Between Parameters and Statistics Parameters are invariant & fixed characteristics of population Statistics are random variables whose value depends on the composition of the sample drawn. Characteristics Mean Variance Standard deviation Proportion Difference between 2 means Difference between 2 proportions Sample Calculations: Compute for the parameter and P where P is the population proportions of students with cholesterol higher than or equal to 6.3 using the following ual cholesterol values of 15 college students in PLM. Sample Calculations: P 1 - 2 Parameter 2 s2 s p Statistics 1. State the null hypothesis, alternative hypothesis H1. 2. State the level of significance, . 3. Choose the test statistic and determining its sample distribution distribution. 4. Determine the critical region. 5. Compute for the test statistic. 6. Make the statistical decision whether or not to reject the null hypothesis hypothesis. 7. Draw conclusio conclusions about the population. 1. Stating the Hypothesis he Three general statements 1. The null hypothesis is the statement of no difference. 2. H1 is usually the research hypothesis. P1 P2 p 1 p2 3. Ho should be framed in hopes of being able to reject it so that H1 could be accepted 2. Statement of the Level of Signifi Significance = the probability of occurrence that is considered too low to warrant support of the hypothesis being tested = 0.05, 0.01 , or 0.1 = level of significance Ho, and the

Common annotations:

Subject Transcribers Last or First Names

Hypothesis should be testable

Decision Not to reject Ho Reject Ho

Ho True Correct decision or Type I error

Ho False or Type II error Correct decision

Type of data the researcher has at hand, i.e., whether nominal, ordinal, interval or ratio scales of measurement END

The level that corresponds to the area of the critical region may be 0.05, 0.025, 0.01, or 0.001.

1 - = Power The ability of the study to detect an actual difference or an actual effect (= 0.2, 0.1) The probability that the observed difference (observed effect) is due to chance.

P value

REMEMBER THIS: p 0.05 (result is significant) p 0.05 (result is not significant)

3. Choosing the test statistic and determining its sample distribution. Test criterion or test statistic depends primarily on the sampling distribution of the sample statistic which is utilized to test the hypothesis ex. Normal Table for z statistic, X2 Table for X2 statistic 4. Determination of the Critical Region. a.k.a. region of rejection the set of values of the test statistic which leads to the rejection of the null hypothesis () Region of non-rejection = Size of the critical region = Location of the critical region determined by the nature of the alternative hypothesis whether it is one-tailed or two-tailed

5. Computation of the Test Statistic

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6. Making a statistical decision. Rejected hypothesis results are statistically significant and the observed difference between the observed and expected is not attributed to sampling variation

7. Drawing Conclusions Rejection of Ho leads to conclusion as stated in H1 Non-Rejection of Ho there is no sufficient evidence to conclude whatever is stated in H1

Criteria for the Test Selection Sampling distribution frequency distributions

Subject Transcribers Last or First Names

Non-rejection of hypothesis results are not statistically significant and sampling variation is a likely explanation of the observed difference