105

Math 116 02: Test #5 (Chapters 20 - 22) Name:

Show work when appropriate to get full credit for correct answers.
Give grammatically correct explanations when asked to explain or support an answer.


1. A company manufacturing computer chips finds that 8% of all chips manufactured are
defective. In an effort to reduce this figure, a new incentive plan is introduced to the employees.
After the new program has been in place for 3 months, the company will test if the percentage
of defects has gone down.

(a) Write the companys null and alternative hypotheses for this scenario. (4 points)

H0:


p = 0.08


Ha:


p 0.08



(b) Explain in context what type I and type II errors would be in this scenario. (6 points)

Type I:
Concluding that the proportion of defective chips is less than 8% when in fact it is
not.

Type II:
Concluding that we cannot say proportion of defective chips is less than 8% when in
fact it is.




(c) Based on data collected after the 3 months, a 90% confidence interval for the
percentage of defective chips was (0.052, 0.76). What conclusion would be appropriate
based on this result? Explain. (6 points)

Since 0.08 is not in this interval and all values in this interval are below 0.08, we
would conclude that the null hypothesis should be rejected. The evidence supports
the proportion of defects is less than 8%.


(d) Based on the data collected after the 3 months, the test statistic was

z
*
= 1.774. What
would be the P value for this result, and what would be that appropriate conclusion if
we are testing the hypotheses at the E = 0.05 level? (9 points)

P Value =


normalcdf , 1.774
)
= 0.038
Since this is less than 0.05, we reject the null hypothesis. The evidence supports the
proportion of defects is less than 8%.


2. For each pair of hypotheses and test statistic given, determine the P value and the
corresponding conclusion at the E = 0.05 level. (5 points each)

(a)



H
0
: p = 0.42
H
a
: p " 0.42
z
*
= 1.495



P value = normalcdf 1.495,
)
= 0.0675
Fail to reject H
o




(b)



H
0
: p = 0.34
H
a
: p { 0.34
z
*
= 4.25



P value =2*normalcdf 4.25,
)
= 0.000021
Reject H
o





3. Explain what the P value is in a hypothesis test. What does it represent? (10 points)

The P value is the probability of getting sample data similar to that which we have
under the assumption that the null hypothesis is true.



4. The International Olympic Committee states that the female participation in the 2000 Summer
Olympic Games was 42%. An independent sports expert chose a random sample of participants
in pre-Olympic exhibitions prior to the 2004 Summer Games. He found that of the 454 people
in the sample, 202 were women. Use the P value approach at the E = 0.05 level to determine if
this provides sufficient evidence that the percentage of women participating was then more
than in the 2000 Olympics. (15 points)

Using 1-PropZTest in Calculator




H
0
: p = 0.42
H
a
: p " 0.42


Test Statistic:


)
p = 0.4449, z
*
= 1.0764

P Value = 0.14

Conclusion: Fail to reject the null hypothesis. Since the P value is > E, evidence is not
strong enough to conclude the proportion of women is more than 42%.

Validity:


465 0.42
)
= 190.68
465 0.58
)
=245.16
and both of these are at least 10
5. According to a 2009 Gallup poll, 28% of Americans said there have been times in the last year
when they havent been able to afford medical care. In a random sample of 801 Americans
selected from minorities, 38% reported that there had been times in the last year when they
had not been able to afford medical care. Use a 94% confidence interval to test whether this
data provides sufficient evidence that this proportion is different for minorities. (15 points)

Using 1-PropZInt in calculator




H
0
: p = 0.28
H
a
: p { 0.28


94% Confidence Interval:


0.34728, 0.41177
)

Conclusion: Reject the null hypothesis. Since 0.28 is not in the interval, the evidence
supports that the proportion of minorities that said there have been times in
the last year when they havent been able to afford medical care is not 28%.

Validity:


0.28 801
)
=224.28
0.72 801
)
=576.72
and both of these are at least 10


6. Researchers conduct a study to test a potential side effect of a new allergy medication. A
random sample of 160 subjects with allergies was selected for the study. The new medication
was randomly assigned to 80 of the subjects, and the old medication was assigned to the other
80 subjects. Of those receiving the new medication, 14 reported drowsiness. Of those receiving
the old medication, 22 reported drowsiness. Use a 98% confidence interval to test whether the
proportion of people that experience drowsiness as a side effect for the new medication is
lower than that of the old medication. (15 points)

Using 2-PropZInt in calculator




H
0
: p
new
= p
old
H
a
: p
new
p
old


98% Confidence Interval:


0.2525, 0.05249
)


Conclusion: Fail to reject the null hypothesis. Since 0 is in the interval, the evidence does
not support that the proportion of people that experience drowsiness as a side
effect for the new medication is lower than that of the old medication.

Validity:


successes = 14 & 22
failures = 66 & 58
and all of these are at least 10

7. In 2000, the United Nations claimed that there was a higher rate of illiteracy in men than in
women from the country of Qatar. A humanitarian organization went to Qatar to conduct a
study. A random sample of both men and women was gathered. Of the 234 men, 45 were
classified as illiterate, and of the 251 women, 42 were so classified. Test the relevant
hypotheses, at the E = 0.05 level with the P value approach, to see if the United Nations claim
seems accurate. (15 points)

Using 2-PropZTest in Calculator




H
0
: p
male
= p
female
H
a
: p
male
" p
female


Test Statistic:


)
p
male

)
p
female
} 0.0250, z
*
= 0.7164

P Value = 0.2369

Conclusion: Fail to reject the null hypothesis. Since the P value is > E, evidence is not
strong enough to conclude the proportion of men that are illiterate in Qatar is
higher than that for women.

Validity:


successes = 45 & 42
failures = 189 & 209
and all of these are at least 10