Cornell University Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Snee Hall David Willson, Stanbridge Capital: February 2nd, 2012.
The ESAS has not been considered to be a methane source because it was believed not to be conducive to methanogenesis, and the permafrost to be acting as an impermeable lid, preventing CH4 escape through the seabed.
Could Arctic ppb be high, despite low anthropogenic emissions, because of large methane seeps? What CH4 flows over the last ten years would be implied?
How Can the Observed Methane Plumes be Reconciled with Models that Suggest a Thick Permafrost Seal, Thawing Only Over Centuries?
Factors may include: Variable geothermal heat flows, due to deep faults. flows faults High local salinity yields unfrozen permafrost. Geologically recurring Vertical Flow Conduits. Only very limited actual stratigraphic data from boreholes Also: Non-obvious Bubble Gas Exchange issues may understate actual flows? Primarily thermogenic gas origin?
Strongly overpressured due to deep hydrate disassociation? Potential for buoyant upflows ? Disguised due to bubble dispersion, and adsorption by thick sediments, combined with biogenic gas.
Cryolithozone: the uppermost layer of the earths crust, which is characterized throughout the entire year by a freezing temperature in soils and rocks and the presence of, or possibility of, the existence of underground ice. ice The principal characteristic of the cryolithozone is the temperature interval that includes the freezing point of water (0C).
The Lower Bound of the Permafrost Layer Depends Importantly on the Geothermal Heat Flux Assumed (Romanovskii, 2003)
Data on the geothermal heat flux were used as boundary conditions in the models; Data for the shelf, the values were assumed to be equal to the values typical of analogous geological structures on the continent. For rift zones, these values were increased twofold as compared with undisturbed tectonic blocks . blocks But importantly, the chart below is for coastal lowlands, so Onshore. The chart below is Romanovskii, 2005
Predicted Hydrate Deposits (Soloviev, 2002) from WWFs Arctic Climate Feedbacks
One O may i f th t the l infer that th large gap west of the New Siberian Islands is due to the t f th N Sib i I l d i d t th geothermal heat flows rising from the faults down to the Basement. Presumably all methane hydrates have been converted to Free Gas not just the portion closest to faults (?) (?). The degradation of arctic sub-sea permafrost is already releasing methane from the massive, frozen, undersea carbon pool and more is expected with further warming WWF. warming WWF (?)
Melting Pingo (Ice-Cored Mound) and Polygon Wedge-Ice near Tuktoyaktuk, Northwest Territories, Canada
Bubble Plumes Rising from the Seafloor throughout the Water Column
Bubble plumes (probably dominated by CH4) rising from the seafloor throughout Bubble the water column .. in September, 2008. A. High-resolution seismic image shows gas charged sediments (darker areas within sediments) and gas release from the bottom throughout entire water column; B. Echo sounder image showing bubbles arising within the water column up to subsurface water layer (10-15 m depth).
A Modular Gas-to-Liquids Facility Converts Captured ESAS Methane and CO2 to Liquid Fuels for Power and Transport
Petrobras is testing ship-GTL units for Stranded Gas situations. Onshore GTL Units could be housed within a Dome or other structure. The Liquid fuels could be barged up the Lena River, then by rail to Beijing. The Backhaul could be liquid CO2, captured from Chinese power plants.
Appendix
How Can the CH4 Plumes Arise Given the Thick Permafrost Seal?
The Arctic Methane Conundrum is readily resolved by assuming a higher rate of deep geothermal heat flow through this heavily faulted area (e.g. 95mW/m2 for (e g faults instead of 70 mW/m2 for fault blocks): thin levels of permafrost (<50m?) would then be implied, which appear consistent with actual deep borehole data. The depth of permafrost has also been overestimated because (a) sub-zero sub zero sediments do not freeze when waters become sufficiently saline (due to local hydrate formation), and (b) the steep gradient for thawed sediments have been ignored. The location of the largest methane plumes appears coincident with deep-seated deep seated extensional faults, the surface expression of which is the Siberian islands. Such Extensional faults reportedly extend 15-20km or more deep, where temperatures are higher (a gradient of 22 C per km of depth away from tectonic plate boundaries, 22C but 25-30C/km or more in active geothermal areas). Such heat flows would promote methanogenesis within deeper strata adjoining faults, turning the peat potentially into lignite, and release very high rates of au s, u g e pea po e a y o g e, a d e ease ve y g a es o methane during the coalification process. The cited source for Dmitrenkos Model (2011) was Delisle (1998), whose paper explicitly acknowledged the uncertainties with faults and heat flow. Dmitrenko also p y g cited the work of Rachold (2005), who warned The presence of unfrozen and saline permafrost suggests that permafrost may not be as cold or thick as predicted by thermal modeling.
In Delisles 1998 Model, the Basis for Dmitrenkos Model, the Role of Faults is Clearly Acknowledged
The l l t d thi k Th calculated thickness of the gas hydrate stability zone for today of the order f th h d t t bilit f t d f th d of almost 1,000 m argues strongly against massive gas diffusion from below. The great uncertainty in the case of the Laptev Sea is the role of the numerous crustal faults, which usually bound the sedimentary basins. They lf l hi h ll b d h di b i Th serve potentially as perennially open pathways for gas migration. The subsea permafrost is a weaker potential caprock. Its thickness is less than that f th th t of the gas hydrate one. h d t In addition, the development of taliks caused by the thermal effect of large rivers running across the shelf opens potential pathways for gas migration. The potential for open pathways for gas migration is much greater than in the case t ti l f th f i ti i h t th i th of the gas hydrate zone. The above theories were developed on the basis of numerical simulations and need to be checked by field work.Talik formation in times of marine d d t b h k d b fi ld k T lik f ti i ti f i regression is an important and unsolved question. Delisle includes as a reference Solovievs 1987 book, which indicates an unfrozen permafrost thickness of just 3 meters at the Dmitry Laptev Strait. f f t thi k fj t t t th D it L t St it
Non-Obvious Bubble Gas Exchange Issues May Materially Understate Actual ESAS Sea Bed Methane Flows?
As a bubble migrates upwards from the sea bed, it acts as a semi-permeable membrane, exchanging gases with the water based on partial pressure differences:
Methane flows out very rapidly, while CO2 and nitrogen flow in (among other gases).
Relative to the Hot Spots of the ESAS, the prolific Santa Barbara Channel Methane Seeps have larger peak and average flows/m2: but still only 1.4% of the seeps aggregate methane mass makes it di tl t the surface. t th k directly to th f Of the 98.6% that stays in the water column, an estimated 60% is oxidized (converted to CO2) by microbes, while 40% surfaces >20km distant from the seeps ( d so eventually enters the atmosphere). F ESAS this is included? (and t ll t th t h ) For ESAS, thi i i l d d? Microbial activity may be lower in the oligotropic ESAS due to lower temperatures, but 1,000x CH4 supersaturation may indicate active communities. In recent years, due to less ESAS ice cover and stronger storms that regularly invert the water column:
The volume of potentially diffusion-controlled seeps from grabens may have increased Th proportion of methane in the water column consumed by microbes may have decreased. The i f h i h l db i b h d d
Could ESAS seabed CH4 emissions be a significant fraction of (Shindells) 140 tg/year? (How much dissolved CH4 migrates beyond the ESAS?).
Clockwise: Ice Melt, Deep Faults, Fault Map, Laptev Sea Hydrate Gap
A Salt Diapir is Much Wider than a Pingo (at Dmitry Laptev Strait?) How Extension Triggers Diapirism (Jackson, 1994)
Taliks, Pingos, and Ice Wedges are Conduits for Vertical Flow (Schuur)
When Methane Hydrates Form, the Remaining Water becomes More Saline because No Salt is in the Hydrates
The L t S f lt Th Laptev Sea faults evidence an extensional t t i setting, similar to Th id t i l tectonic tti i il t The Great Basin of the US, which contains a large Salt Lake: might the ESAS also have contained salt lakes prior to inundation? If so these sediments may have never frozen due to their salinity and they may also have characteristic vertical fractures salinity, on the former lake bottom, which would be conduits for the vertical migration of Free Gas. With 20% lake bottom salinity a temperature of almost -12C would be required: salinity, 12C moreover, any (non-saline) methane hydrate formation would further increase local salinity. Freezing 100% of the sediments may be challenging due to the everincreasing local salinity induced by nearby methane hydrate formation.
The lifespan of methane in the atmosphere was estimated at 9.6 years as of 2001; however, increasing emissions of methane over time reduce the concentration of the hydroxyl radical h d l di l
Thermogenic Gas from Thick Coal Strata Could Source Free Gas?
Tundra has been compared to peat. As thick buried sediments are exposed to strong heat flows from faults (and folding?) under the Laptev Sea, they may coalify with large volumes of Free Gas released. That much of the estimated 933 GT of ESAS Free Gas could be thermogenic would have profoundly encouraging implications for GeoEngineering. In the 2011 ESAS Survey, there was a single large Torch only every 250km2.
The Laptev Sea abuts the 756 GT Lena Coal basin: coals adsorb CH4. Unlike conventional reservoirs, an increasing production profile is common. To the extent that some of the deep sediments at the ESAS may have coalified near faults, this may be relevant. l t
The ESAS has not been considered to be a methane source because it was believed The not to be conducive to methanogenesis, and the permafrost to be acting as an impermeable lid, preventing CH4 escape through the seabed (Shakhova, 2008)