Tim Lei, Kylie Lai, Maggie Huang, Samuel Yu 4o AP Statistic

Statistic Report We have been informed that there is a new type of bullfrog. We want to determine if this bullfrog, temporally called Ringed bullfrog because of its appearance, is its own specie. To determine this statistically, we will run a multi-stage significance test on their weight at the 5% alpha level. At the beginning stage, we randomly catch twenty normal bullfrogs and twenty Ringed bullfrogs. At the second stage, a significance test between male and female is ran, in both type of bullfrog, to determine if there is a significant difference between their weight. At the final stage, we will compare the weight between the normal bullfrog and the ringed bullfrog.

The following data are the frogs that were caught at random.

Tim Lei, Kylie Lai, Maggie Huang, Samuel Yu 4o AP Statistic

Tim Lei, Kylie Lai, Maggie Huang, Samuel Yu 4o AP Statistic

Significance Test between the weight of male and female Normal bullfrog: SRS- Randomly catch twenty frogs Independent- A male frog cannot also be a female frog Normality of the sampling distributionsince 15<nm+nf<40

Tim Lei, Kylie Lai, Maggie Huang, Samuel Yu 4o AP Statistic

In this point, we decided to keep the outlier because this outlier might represent a large group of bullfrog in the population. After conducting a twosample t-test, we found the p-value to be 0.092. Under the 5% rule of thumb, there is no significance in difference in the weight of the male and female normal bullfrog.

When we repeat the significant test without the outlier, the result did not vary by a lot.

Tim Lei, Kylie Lai, Maggie Huang, Samuel Yu 4o AP Statistic

This time, the p-value has decreased to 0.037 which contradict with our result from the previous test. But because of the reason stated in the

Tim Lei, Kylie Lai, Maggie Huang, Samuel Yu 4o AP Statistic

previous test, we chose to keep the outlier.

Ringed bullfrog: SRS- Randomly catch Independent- A male twenty frogs frog cannot also be a female frog Normality of the sampling distributionsince 15<nm+nf<40

Tim Lei, Kylie Lai, Maggie Huang, Samuel Yu 4o AP Statistic

After conducting a two-sample t-test, we found the p-value to be 0.092. Under the 5% rule of thumb, there is no significance in difference in the weight of the male and female ringed- bullfrog.

Significance Test between the weight of normal bullfrog and ringed bullfrog SRS- Randomly catch twenty frogs Independent- assume the Normality of the two type of frog are sampling distributiondifferent species, so they since nm+nf> or =40 are not able to interbreed

Tim Lei, Kylie Lai, Maggie Huang, Samuel Yu 4o AP Statistic

After conducting a two-sample t-test, we found the p-value to be 0.011. Under the 5% rule of thumb, there is a significance in difference in the weight of the ringed- bullfrog and the normal bullfrog.

Conclusion

Tim Lei, Kylie Lai, Maggie Huang, Samuel Yu 4o AP Statistic

After comparing the weight of the two types of frog, the normal bullfrog and the ringed bullfrog, we draw a conclusion that there is a significant difference in weight between the two types of frog. Therefore, by this factor, we say that the ringed bullfrog and the normal bullfrog are two different species.

Error analysis In this study there are three possible errors that could occur:

A type I error could occur in the significant test between the weight of male and female bullfrog. As soon as we set the level value equal to five percent, we have a five percent chance of making this mistake. In this report, we said that there is no significant difference in weight between the male bullfrogs and female bullfrogs. But if we did make the type I error, we will say that there is no significant difference in weight when there actually is. A potential type II error could occur during the final stage of the test, when we are comparing the weight between normal bullfrog and ringed bullfrog. As soon as we set the level value equal to five percent, we have a chance of making this mistake. In this report, we said that there is a significant difference in weight between the ringed bullfrog and the normal bullfrog. But if we did make the type II error, we will say that there is a significant difference in weight when theres actually no significance. Another potential error is that we are over representing the outlier in the first significance test. In this test we included the outlier. But if in reality, the outlier is only representing a minority of bullfrog, we will not be able to combine the data of male bullfrog and female bull frog and the whole test will need to be rerun in a different way.