草根财经第五期 (修订版)

P1-8
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highlandcat
2012
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P39-40
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P49-58
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highlandcat
Homer Jorrano. Simpson
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P90-94
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P103-104
P105-114
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025 |
2012
026 |
2012
027 |
2012 2012
2
Frodo: I cant do this, Sam.
Sam: I know. Its all wrong. By rights, we shouldnt even be here. But we are. Its like in the
great stories, Mr. Frodo. The ones that really mattered. Full of darkness and danger they were. And sometimes
you didnt want to know the end because how could the end be happy? How could the world go back to
the way it was when so much bad had happened? But in the end, its only a passing thing this shadow. Even
darkness must pass. A new day will come. And when the sun shines, it will shine out the clearer. Those were the
stories that stayed with you that meant something. Even if you were too small to understand why. But I think,
Mr. Frodo, I do understand. I know now. Fold in those stories had lots of chances of turning back, only they
didnt. They kept going because they were holding on to something.
Frodo: What are we holding on to Sam?
Sam: There is some good in this world, Mr. Frodo. And its worth fighting for.
028 |
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029 |
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094 |
Forget Europe Germanys Got Its Own Problems to Deal With
Graham Summers
http://gainspainscapital.com/?p=1187
Forget Europe Germanys Got Its Own

Problems to Deal With
very day that Germany continues to flirt with the idea of propping up Europe, is another day that the
country gets closer to its own fiscal crisis.
The mainstream media believes that Germany is somehow the bastion of fiscal strength. However, even a
cursory look at the facts disproves this.
For starters, German banks post some of the highest leverage rations in Europe: higher that Italy, higher
than Ireland, even higher than Greece. In fact, German banks are actually sporting leverage EQUAL to that of
Lehman Brothers when it went bust.
095 |
Translate Foreign Articles

To make matters worse, Germany has yet to recapitalize its banks. Indeed, by the German Institute for
Economic Researchs OWN admission, German banks need 147 billion Euros worth of new capital.
147
Mind you, this is just NEW capital demands. In addition to this, German banks need to roll over 40% of
their total outstanding debt within the next 12 months.
12
40%
This is at a time when the many European nations are relying on the ECB to insure they dont have a failed
bond auction (by the way Germany had a failed bond auction just a few weeks ago).
Suffice to say, the German banking system isnt as rock solid as the mainstream consensus. The German
government knows about this situation which is why its already preparing for the potential nationalization of
Germanys largest banks should things get messy.
Germanys sovereign balance sheet isnt a whole lot better either. Officially, Germany has a Debt to GDP
ratio of 84%. However, according to Axel Weber, the most recent head of Germanys Central Bank (he left April
2011), Germany is in fact sitting on a REAL Debt to GDP ratio of over 200%. This is Germany with unfunded
liabilities equal to over TWO times its current GDP.
GDP 84% Axel Weber
2011 4 GDP 200%
GDP
Whats truly frightening about this is that Weber is most likely being conservative here. Jagadeesh Gokhale
of the Cato Institute published a paper for EuroStat in 2009 claiming Germanys unfunded liabilities were in fact
closer to 418% (and that was two years ago).
Weber Jagadeesh Gokhale
2009 418%
096 |
This further goes with my primary view: Germany has its own problems to deal with. So the idea that
Germany is somehow going to prop up the EU is not really realistic. After all, if Germany was indeed going to
serve as the mega-European backstop, dont you think it would already have done so?
The truth is this: the German constitution wont permit the issuance of Euro bonds. And the German
population/ social contract between German politicians and voters will not stand for money printing of any kind.
So dont bank on Germany coming to save the day. Indeed, even the option of Germany somehow taking
over other EU nations budgetary controls is ridiculous as NO EU member would submit to that.
Instead, I expect Germany to duck out of the Euro in the near future. It may happen in the next few weeks
or it may happen in early 2012. But considering that the Federal Reserve had to step in to save the European
banking system today I believe it will be sooner rather than later.
2012
So if you believe that Germany is going to save the EU youre in for a rude surprise. Indeed, if we look
at the bond or credit markets, its clear were into a Crisis far greater than 2008. Forget the stock market rally.
Stocks ALWAYS get it last (just like in 2008). And before the smoke clears on this mess were going to see
sovereign defaults, bank holidays, riots, and more.
2008
2008
Many people will lose everything in this mess.
097 |
Translate Foreign Articles
Forget Europe Germanys Got Its Own

Problems to Deal With
098 |
apanese Yen

Japanese Yen
JPY

(NIPPON GINKO)
1871 10002000
500010000 151050100500
1871 6 27
4 5 10 1500
0.01
099 |
Terms
1886
1964
1971
1951~1973
10.1%
1968 1428
1985 1985
1991
1992
2001 3
100 |
iaza accord
(Plaza Accord) 20 80
1977
1977 1 290 1978

170 41.38% 1978
1979 ~1980
1979 (PaulA.Volcker)
20% (
) 1954 1978 1980 1984
3%5%
1979 1984
60%
1984
1000
1980
1984 1600 GNP 3.6%
101 |
Terms
1985
9 22
G5
1985 9
1 250 3
1 200 20%

1 120
50%
1985
10
5%
1986
5 30% 15%
GDP 5%
GNP
1989 1991
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102 |
1895 1990 . .
955
2010 1
103 |
: 161
2005
1889 1975
135
2006 9
1571 1641
1623-1687
1841~1931
: 183
1998 1
104 |
105 |
Life photograph
106 |
107 |
Life photograph
108 |
109 |
Life photograph
110 |
111 |
Life photograph
112 |
113 |
Life photograph
114 |

草根财经第五期 (修订版)

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草根财经第五期 (修订版)

Diunggah oleh

Hak Cipta:

Format Tersedia

P1-8

Homer Jorrano. Simpson

BB&T CorpCommerce Bancshares Inc

AAA 2013 2013

2016 2020 3.5

5 19 1059 6 30 1756 74% 7

2001 9 5000 1300 2002 9 1100

2008 4 2009 2010 20% 30% 2011

40% 50% 2012

2010 M2 72.5 2010 GDP 39.7

2001 911 2000 6.5%

2001 7 121 2008 3 70

2011 8 29 131 H 5.12% 83

2011 9 12 117% 70%

2010 GDP 10.5%

Frodo: What are we holding on to Sam?

Stock Market Research

54.94 638.45 2.58%

Stock Market Research

4000 2015 2020 2030

2007 20052020 2020 4000 2600

100 2000 2010 3.1

Stock Market Research

82.9 26.5% 19.8% 10 11

Stock Market Research

36.4 2008 4 38 11 CPI

CFTC 17966 117157COMEX2

CFTC 4622 7242COMEX2

2012 12 6 GOFO 0.84

1000 1600 LIBOR 0.5%GOFO

1600 *1000 1600000 1600

2011-10-22 2011-10-29 2011-11-14 2011-11-18 2011-11-30 2011-12-13 2011-12-26

3 5.71 5.851 13.96%

POS ATM 2010

Forget Europe Germanys Got Its Own Problems to Deal With

Forget Europe Germanys Got Its Own

Translate Foreign Articles

Many people will lose everything in this mess.

Translate Foreign Articles

Forget Europe Germanys Got Its Own

1977 1 290 1978

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