Hyman P. Minsky*
October 1994
I.
Definition
of the Problem
plays
two
roles
in a modern and
capitalist
it the by
of payments
it channels On both to a
banking
decreasing and
as banks
it seems,
caeter:ls
the trend
continue. that the Banks, banks; those to role in the economy (of
suggest
(Central examine
money; as part
and of
assure
that
function
payments The
mechanism
reviewed. efficacy
"declining" policy
of banks
of monetary
operations. the or
Federal by by
Reserve
operations the
affect
longer but
availability by
rather
affecting
affect
the
of uncertainty
market
market
will
often
be
out
of line
with
the
size
of the
of banks
in financing the
the
development the
of the and
to increase
significance to that of
Securities Reserve
relative
Federal chartered
System.
that
more
banks policy
facing, and
regulatory
for that
banks emerges
in the is
importance existing of
institutions
chartered structure
as of
whether and
institutional financial
needs
on the The
of the
day-to-day should
operations guide
them.
legislation and
(and
administrative of banking
decisions) and
that
affects
structure
markets,
government banking on
in setting markets.
rules This
constrain
contain on
policy
the
"legislating
institutions
plane.
II. Theoretical
Background
economic
policy
a and
he is coming theory
clear. the
analyst
different
conventional
or orthodox
theory
comment instability
is
written hypothesis
from
the
perspective of The
of
the
General General
This
in The
cycles
economies. investment
conditions,
of income
the path
of the economy. This Keynesian view differs economic radically which from leads
"neo-classical" about
of the
equilibrium
economy functions
that over of
specified
variables",
the
neutral. of The
described Theory as
that
went
into ".
.
the
.
confusions In
the
developed, money
hypothesis
is built,
in general financial
institutions This
non-neutrality such
not
economy through time. special result of the rather because money of the
quite of
different current
ways
outputs
capital
the
economy
is that
processes variables
pertinent of
time.
results
multi-market
interactions
often the as
tranquil,
but
from
time
to
time
the
effect
of
interacting incoherent
processes behavior.
generates This as of
turbulent holds
as well of the to in
theory a
periods of due
behavior between
occur flows
natural
income,
payment
commitments These
as determined characteristic an
interactions economy,
capitalist system
is
simultaneously
income
generating
and a financial
Economic deep
turbulence and
of output that
from potential
output.
finds
market
hypothesis are
processes of these
However,
full
effect
flaws,
by apt economic
hypothesis, between
business
payment
arise
of financing flows
investments capital
in capital are
of gross of
structure in
demand: Gross
cycles incomes
payment
simple flows
investment the as
validating
capital
assets
and
instruments,
commitments into in
embodied order to
liability
structures and
which
investments
positions
in assets.
In foreign
our
complex
world, and
households, have
government outstanding
units, debts,
governments some
enterprises
of
their debts
as they new
finance debts.6
demands
goods
services
with
III Debt
Deflations
The Keynes
financial with
instability
hypothesis
as an interpretation
of
starts
two observations:
The
General
Theory
was
written
during
and
shortly that
after
the in the
great the
contraction collapse of
Economy
culminated system in
United
States'
banking
winter Keynes
of 1932-33 familiar
was
Irving
Fisher's
Debt
Deflation
Theory
of Great
Depressions.
In condition in the
is
an
a debt
of the
positions
capital period
assets
financed
as the
of good
Institutional instruments, financing addition, practices and access Fisher is now clear
innovations, extended
changes as adjust is
periods
times.
especially
evident
financial computing,
to new technologies
of communicating,
to files. did not explain how overindebtedness period of good developed. times, It
that
over
an extended
during
which
the
use of of
of the the of
debt use
leads of
to
gains, The
prior
debt
subjective even as by
likelihood safety in of
margin
debts.
increases
chances
contracts
Impact
Depression when the had pieces left behind by the great the
of 1929-33
together,
interpretation in the
of
financial
structure,
information
that
corporations
provided
to their
investors
to the organization
and powers
of the Federal
Reserve One
System motive
was
created its
aftermath was to
1907.
for
financial
crashes
Reserve over of
interface device
banking the
financial Reserve's
system
Federal
discount
in place
to contain
solvency of
The Great
Depression after
a period
and debate,
of a "permanent"
structure.
The second
took
mainly place
in
1935
and
1936.
The
object
of
reform
was
to
set
in
a structure could
so that
a financial again.'
collapse
leading
to a great
depression
not happen
of the
1930's
of the in terms
economic of
history to
of the get
United money
could After
be a
attempts banking,
monetary,
structure structure
failed, put in
or of
was
another
of
requirements provide
monetary of
a safe
exchange,
channels
for the
financing
of the
capital
development
the economy.
and Transparency compartmentalization the legislation banking, structure. is still means and transparency, mid-1930's systems can that and set
governed
in the
reformed the
the private
monetary,
government's
regulatory
structure
in place
in the mid-1930's
that
compartments, institutions of
within have
protected in the
types
financing,
financing types
of particular of
of assets is what
units. of referred
separation commonly
commercial
from
to as Glass-Steagall
special
financing agricultural
were
put
in and
place rural
for
home
exports,
Corporation, of
a government banks,
financing programs.
a myriad
the
Reserve
System the
reorganized. that
doctrine supply
removed access to
from
rules Reserve
determined
Federal as
credit. to offset
Furthermore, Federal a
government
became
eligible
an asset
currency of
insurers,
agencies.
for from
assuring the
that
bank
deposits The
always
available
Federal an
Reserve.
various
deposit
insurance
carried
implicit up to
or guarantee
of their of the
commitments, initial
experience, not,
was
deposits
large
deposits of
were
transparency is a
States of
those which
initial
takes
hand"
in which free of
financial
were
to
be
manipulation, parties.
market
makers,
corporate
management, principle an
or third
is necessary
for the
operation
of
than
institution-based
financial
system.
of scandals
banking, fell
combined
with
the
as the that
to some
public's and of in
confidence the
markets revival
wisdom in banks
confidence
institutions
facilitated
by Federal
government
deposit
insurance. There intervention confidence some was no possibility the value of a similar assets. financing government Revival of
of other equity
debt
and of Deal
guaranty
corporate legislation
set
standards
governance, security
a public flow of
operations markets
One
banks
finance and
integrity and
markets
exchange efforts
legislation of the
reform oriented
New
Deal would
era:
without
today's
system of
banks
are
submitted
operations require
of businesses, The
households, officer
loan
effect
that
forma
that
he did which
accurately the
reflects
process,
transform by
optimistic borrowers
profit
expectations expectations
forth
potential
realistic
10
of of
process, similar
security
publicly
traded
about
pro
formas chain
cited of
earlier financing:
identifies loan
the
role
of
officers
in the
officers make
skeptics
by accepting
In marketare assumed
financing, roles to
play
lender and
a bank's lacking
relations
borrowers
depositors
in market-based
financing
arrangements.
The
1930s When
reorganization the belief Federal was was an Reserve that put the was created of the an after the crisis of was of the not
1907
the
problem As in
the
system take
bank, of
Federal banking of
solvency
crisis
of the by the
crisis
involved
Reconstruction
Finance
Corporation
banks
bankrupt
on a mark-to-market The commercial unions natural standards regulation, creation banks, the
basis. of federal deposit and of loan the insurance institutions and for
credit A of
diluted and
System. setting
of deposit and a
coverage examination,
which
assures
the
insurer
11
insured
conforms
to set
standards. functions
and
Reserve
of the
banks
eligible
window was
Federal
Banks. reserved
part
of By
the
normal the
was
into
being.
being
reserves, responsive
discount needs
to lend Reserve
to the reserves of
In the
original
act bank
were the
underlying
theory
responsiveness possible determined district Reserve's result secure, economy. Bank were in by by
system base of
of trade
being
rediscounting Banks) of
eligible with
Federal
Reserve
combined the
banking that
safe
development rate at a
only
suffered or
a loss an try
through Federal
foreign
through to
Reserve
not
to
fight
inflation original
District
banks. about
As the
District their
had banks
a right who
were
borrowers. of financing
The by
discount
window the
as
a normal
legitimated
regulation,
12
and
examination
of
member
banks
by
the
Federal
Federal
Reserve
had
been
created debt
in small
the
first
the government
to be the to
supply
system
that
responded the
trade,
capital as
of the the
economy. issuing an
eligible
note as the
department
Federal it
Banks
viewed during
emergency
when
was
introduced normal Federal expected The Banking deposited policy of bank were
crisis
of 1932, Aside
as a change of
operating Reserve
procedure. System's
from with
periods the
crisis, was
interaction
economy
upon
Government the
that The
with
the
turn,
financing
available
from
banking
system
responsive
to the needs
of trade.11 allowed the did use not of government abolish the was once the
which
currency,
facilities recovery
Banks. fiscal
scarce.
This place
discount banking
window system's
of the
World over of
spite
1946-1980
period the
percentage
GDP
fell,
ratifying
13
of
the
1930s.
As
a result
of
the
destruction of
of
fiscal debt
system to
following GNP
the
election
1980, Today,
relative
increased policy
foreseeable
future,
dealing
structure of a
government
and
examination that
financial
institutions
expectations rule.12
be the
structure Reserve
Federal
Reserve eligible
System paper is
Banks base
to process for
the
commercial
banks
that faced.
operates There
by way may
of open well
market be a and
very
structure it
of the
Federal the an
System a
manner
interacts
with than
discount
window central
central bank.
is different
open
operations
V. Today's
Capitalism
of or II
today's of 1936.
are
not
the
World
there such
has
collapse the
markets, 1940.
as had
often such
occurred
collapses
marked reason
change This
that longer
reserves of
and
of money activity
need
a result the
business
which
demand debt
deposits
14
sustained decreases. An of a
even
if
bank
lending
to
business
and
households
additional
and
important in
reason
for
the
absence a
deep in
depression
capitalism collapse,
fall which
investment is what
does normally is
mean
incomes
happened because in
deep
recession are
or the
This
so
government sustaining
deficits aggregate
investment
capital
Stabilization
policy policy is effective of as it stabilizes aggregate in the 1930's values asset (current, because recent, and
great
collapse
primarily had
because
capital
incomes
fallen
had
risen.14
preference assets
decreases when
the
and equities
financial such
occur, which
capitalism,
ruled
in the present-value first tapered liquidity the fall fell off slightly, and then
formula and
pricing as of
profits greater
level
index
of
wages
employed
our
recent
experience
the
main of the
device and
that early
the from
financial turning
fiascos a
into
depression
aspect
of pension
These
15
value upon
The
day-to-day to market
value
of
these
depends from
marking lower
of the for
these assets
funds to
asset
values, is
satisfy
redemptions
likely
to
force
price an
down. when bank "fixed-dollar" failure partial liabilities would payments though equity, that those lead to
a main
households, would be
a bank receive
assets.
Depositors bank
in a failed
would such
liquidated.
Even by bank
as is provided there
100%
value the
funds,
is also of
no danger but be
front are
line back
withdraw only
a deposit that
further
receive
the
value
can
achieved
through A deficits
process that
policy profits
investment, and
of a fiscal debt
policy
to be compromised. posture
that
fiscal rate
a substantially of gross
smaller
than
product,
amount
"full-employment
level"
then
rate than
substantially
greater
an income-sensitive upon
fiscal
policy
imposes a
as a significant tight
inflation. allows
big-government to be
regime
policy
big-government to fire in
monetary an
exuberant relatively
make
financing i.e.,
banks
expensive;
16
monetary it
policy a
a s lack posture
fiscal that
posture at
only
as
induces
crunch. by creating
aims
of debt overall
economic
growth
lowering
attained
GDP to potential
GDP.15
VI. Policy
As my
1935
Ronnie that
recently of
pointed
out,
in was up
few
reform to clean
completed.16 bank
item
examination
examination FDIC. As
Treasury depositors
(as the
ability
FDIC
to pay
as necessary) value
of the nominal
of bank to carry
appropriate
organizations
examination.
Liquidity In occurred
and Solvency
1935
only the
one
had
since
Federal
in place. unable
In that to prevent
Reserve and
System
had been
banking banks
financial the
system. holiday
reopening of
the
after
auspices able
Finance
Corporation,
to supply We now
equity had
have the
crisis.
Once off
again and
Federal
in paying association
sustaining
savings
17
liabilities
at par.
The
major
placers
were
the
insurance
funds
and the Treasury. Whereas inducing not and and the and main the Federal Reserve liquidity has been the the main player Reserve of to in was
1929-33 contain
1988-92. offset
crises
that
were
to
a plethora
of non-performing
assets
of banks of
The by
solvency
non-performing that
assets,
requires
infusion. infuses a
requires into
investment
bank or funds
negative
institutions, "equity" or
guaranteed
insured
liabilities
off at par. The "government operation investment of the are the the bank failed non and bank" bank, route and often assets the whose leads of the of the to
debtors failed
equity
infusion are
to the
treatment
of the
situation.
On both
government even
investment
bank
route
valuable
organizations
intact, assets
if the management
responsible
down the
assets
feasible.
"government way
investment with
bank"
be a more
effective assets
to deal
a crisis route.
is due to non-performing
than
a "liquidator"
18
the
aftermath
of
the
bank
holiday,
the
placed that
equity
in some As
reopened).
recovery either
by the of
retained banks
whole, so that in
in failed the
government debt
were
increase
government exercise. It
occurred
recapitalization
seems
as dead of
if
be
in of in
savings
associations
period.
It is worth bank,
investigating as the
whether
investment
such feature
Reconstruction where
for an economy
Banking Act
Act Redux for bonds of the bonds a currency the that was
National United
provided
upon
Government Office
that
banks
deposited is based
at the upon
currency
basing the
private
Federal Great
of of
the
Depression, base
great
the
the
revenue
Government the
in the debt
government
enough
the be in
deposit offset
liabilities by government
of the bonds.
commercial
savings
banks
We can now
have
a banking
19
the
banks
hold to
at
the
Federal
Banks
equal
the
Federal
currency
would
monetary
system
deposits
by which Reserve
conditions
100%
are satisfied.18 We are rapidly forms. moving We not on various currency with credits towards only make an economy where money will
take
on new
purchases
credit
to take we
the will
of
smart
card
value,
which "cash
by way
of smart
registers"
purchasing
power
from
the
account
of The was
to that
of another, in the
payment and
systems credit
resources. revolution
innovation
payment
discount way to
as the way to pay the pay the for the payments on the costs security would
interest the
owned this a
by the would
banking mean
to cover safety
that
and asset
goes
with
available to
a competetive system
and to put
a fee-foruse of the in an
pay
check-clearing There
system. that a
may be no issue
choice,
open-access owners
which a
small the
asset in
equally.
Such
consideration
may
swing
choice
20
favor
of
combination costs
of
fees
for
services
and
the
vendor's
discount
to pay the
of the
100% money
from are
always by
fixed
value. the
making holding
contingent by
business favor of
household funds
debts. becoming
are vehicle
debts. market
which fund of a
financing
mainly
are purchased
of generally
available
their
loan
officer of their
function, "hard
are
on the they to
basis obtain
reading"
which terms
a substitute special
mutual
break
down
funds that
business
and
household
financing with
into
tranches, value
portion
a market that
variable-income tranche.
"protects" be
value
portion the
would first,
high of
absorb assets:
10%
interest
rate credits.
could
be finessed
by making
century during
is about the
1930's
to be ushered discussion
on the table
21
once is
again it
be on the separates
table. the
of the that
100% the
money
scheme and
that
monetary
banking means By
system of
the provision
of a safe of
capital
development us aware
the
separating too
functions as well
it makes
that
an economy
can have
We now money:
financing
the
economy and
contingent-valued payments bonds system. business fund, holders in the mechanism is held The is
funds, of for
a portfolio
government
that
authority the
weakness the
mutual
way
that not
manager to
does
hazard loss
against form of
of principal.
A surrogate
capital in the
a high-risk, need
high-expected-return
portfolio
will
managements to a greater
managers ever
of various before,
kinds. of
because
spread been by
of wealth, realized.
in small
protecting widely
broad
public
information
disseminated:
transparency.
and Transparency of be
for the
21st
application need to
compartmentalization the
transparency and
usages.
by function, eroded.
so prominent
As we prepare
for the
we have
22
to
adjust
the
still-valid to the
concepts of
of the
and our
technology
reflected as the
of mutual
instruments of both
loans,
operations
banks
companies.
holding funds
allows
mutual we can
same to
corporate
which
expect
opened
allow
commercial format,
investment
to co-exist the
under
a holding
company of
functional
segmentation
commercial
that
most being of
banking the
for
elimination
segmentation. in the stagnation been the the British economy over of as a in of for of and
element century
has
ever-greater branch
banking rich
number
of national
mix
banking never
organizations, The
arose.
prudent
banker
part of
of the
regulatory
structure, than
distribution (in
credits
so that capital,
no more retained
equity
principle profits)
earnings,
determines example,
habitat
group.
For that
rule means
8 million
dollars
in capital.
23
of such
an institution scene
would
be from
$800,000 with
to
$1,200,000.
In
as it now line
$l,OOO,OOO
or less By
maximum rule,
credit
business. an to have
same
will line
credit
billion-dollar to 1,200 to
bank million
dollars. branch state, will credit banking regional, increase that can will and the be
The see an
opening
nationwide into
banks
of
amalgamation line of
therefore
of banks to a
to higher small
natural of
progress
number
with
maximum to
credit large of of
of credit of
improve
conditions a most
supply outcome
to be
likely
of rules
segments
banking
by
bank
size
seems as as be
in order the
if small
adequate
financing as well to
consolidation support
of special
rules
special
community
banks
needs
explored."
VII.
A Modest
Proposal
time of now
has the
come banking
to
open and
national
inquiry The
into
the
financial
system. and
radical
computing,
that
much of
economy
past
24
of
the
Federal
Reserve
to
give
full
employment consistent
can mean
that
our financing
structures
are not
of a progressive serious I
democracy. were the result is of serious in back our to and late amiss to go
past,
changes
public financial
suggest structures
enough it
is time
board
financial, A
arrangements National
century.
century
Commission
be on the public
policy
agenda.
25
ENDNOTES
rates and financial The strong reaction of interests 1. Reserve actions may markets after the modest early-1994 Federal well reflect an increase in uncertainty by agents of how these now more-complex the will work their through actions way For an argument about how monetary policy financial markets. operates by affecting uncertainty see Minsky, Hyman I?., "The New (179-191) in Minsky, Hyman P. (1982) Uses of Monetary Powers" "Can It Happen Again?", Armonk, N-Y.: M.E. Sharpe. Introduction to the French edition of Keynes, 2. Maynard, (1973) The General Theory of Employment Interest VII of Collected Works of Money, as reprinted in Volume Macmillan. Maynard Keynes, London and Basington: John and John
This two-price-level interpretation of Keynes's non3. neutrality of money is stated in Minsky, Hyman P. (1975), John Columbia University Press, as well as in (1982) Maynard Keynes, One way Press. Stabilizing an Unstable Economy, Yale University of making the idea of the two price levels clear is to note that a capitalist economy has both a "CPI" and a "Dow Jones". long duration, but fairly may be of Turbulence 4. In the turbulent incoherence is almost always of short duration. dominated no more than great contraction of 1929-33, incoherence the last 10 weeks before the inauguration of Franklin Roosevelt. Decisive action by the government over the first hundred days of of reforms to come, combined with promises Roosevelt's term, ended the incoherence. The perspective on our economy to which the financial 5. leads has much in common interpretation of Keynes instability with the stress upon the evolutionary properties of capitalist such as enlightened the work of economists, that economies Schumpeter and the American institutionalists, who were prominent in the first half of this century. In the In the core case, profits equals investment. 6. plus the world as it is, gross capital income equals investment government deficit minus the international deficit of trade, with
26
of
labor
income
and
consumption
Keynes visited the University of Chicago in 1931 to 7. lectures on Unemployment as participate in the Harris Foundation While in Chicago he noted that a preference for a World Problem. and persons. It liquidity was rampant among banks, businesses, seems that Keynes came to Chicago to sell the analysis of his quantity-theoretic Treatise on Money, and left Chicago with the General The revolutionary germ of his liquidity preference Theory. Fisher's 8. Econometrica. article appeared in the first (1993) volume of
One aspect of the process of reform was the assembly, in 9. young the summer of 1934, by Jacob Viner of a gaggle of bright economists in the Treasury Department: they were labeled Viner's Their charge was to design a banking and financial Freshmen. One of these young economists was Laughlin system from scratch. Both of them were friendly another was Albert Hart. Currie; a doctrine usually associated with Henry toward 100% money, See Phillips, Ronnie J. Simons of the University of Chicago. The Chicago Plan and New Deal Banking Reform, (1994 forthcoming), Armonk, N.Y.: M.E. Sharpe. lie," is a "Entrepreneurs law, William Janeway's 10. about the determination of whether a project parallel statement of the institution of "security The importance is bankable. for the functioning of a transparent market based analysis" financial system is one reason why it is easier for a newly capitalist economy to replicate a universal banking system than a market based financial system. act replaced a currency The original Federal Reserve debt with one that monetized private that monetized government The period of the National Banking Act (1863 debts (and gold). The William characterized by falling prices. was to 1913) "Cross of Gold" speech was a response to the Jennings Bryan chronic deflation of the post- Civil War era.
11.
If the trend decline in the ratio of government debt to 12. gross domestic product of 1946-1980 had continued through 1993, we would now be concerned about the shortage of government debt and we would be system, to satisfy the needs of the financial
27
debating what the structure should be of a banking and financial system in which the currency and the reserve base for deposits private reflect would Reserve Federal the furnished by obligations that the Federal Reserve obtains either from an open market or through the discount window. For the concept of a contained depression see Levy, S 13. Outlook for the 1990's: The Contained and David Levy (1991), Jay, Jerome Levy Economics Institute. Depression, For an explication of the relations between the composition and David Levy of aggregate demand and profits see Levy, S Jay, (1983) Profits and the Future of the American Economy, New York: Stabilizing an Hyman P. and Minsky, and Row, (1986), Harper Press. Unstable Economy, Yale University Recall that over 1929-33 the price level of current 14. output and the wage level of employed workers fell by about l/3; the Dow Jones, the second price level, fell by some 85%. Using crunches to contain demand is a form of policy 15. and bankers succeed as businessmen Crunches brinkmanship. The danger that the believe that their survival is at stake. central bank will carry the crunch too far and set off a debt deflation is always present. "New Deal's Unfinished Ronnie J. Phillips, 16. (1994), The American Banker, April Merging the bank regulators",
Work: 18.
In the light of the French and Italian experience with 17. investment banks, it is difficult to recommend a government government investment bank except for the possibility that in the of this bank will tend to be the activities United States transparent. Some of the main references for 100% money are: 18. Banking for Plan' "'The Chicago Albert Hart, (1935), and Statistics 2: 104-116. Reform," Review of Economics Irving (1945), 100% Money, 3rd Edition, New Haven: Fisher, The City Printing Company (First Edition 1935). and Currency Reform", Simons, Henry, et al (1933) "Banking Research in the Manuscript Reprinted in Warren Samuels, ed., History of Economic Thought and Methodology, Archival Supplement, Conn.: Jai Press, Forthcoming. Volume 4, Greenwich,
28
reference to Henry Simons is Economic Policy a Free Society, Chicago: the University of Chicago Press. The general
19.
for
Minsky, and L.
Public
B Papadimitriou, Ronnie Hyman P., Dimitri Randall Wray (1993) "Community Development Policy Brief no.3, The Jerome Levy Economics
WORKING
PAPER SERIES
No. 1
No. 2 No. 3
Macroeconomic
Profitability:
R. MICHL
November
1987
Competing Micro Economic Theories of Industrial MARK GLICK AND EDUARDO M. OCHOA Housing Quality Differentials The Finance Constraint A Structural Approach
in Urban Areas...DIMITRIOS
July 1988 August 1988 August 1988 September September 1988 1988
The Effects of Alternative Sharing Arrangements on Employment: Preliminary Evidence from Britain...JEFFREY PLISKIN AND DEREK C. JONES Consumer Benefit from Air Quality Improvements...DIMITRlOS A. GIANNIAS
No. 9
October October
1988 1988
No. IO
Long-Term Trends in Profitability: The Recovery of World War II... GERARD DUMENIL. MARK GLICK AND DOMINQUE LEVY Ranking Urban Areas: A Hedonic Equilibrium DIMITRIOS A. GIANNIAS The Real Wage and the Marginal Approach to Quality of Life...
No. 11
October
1988
No. 12 No. 13
Product of Labor...TRACY
MOTT
November November
1988 1988
The Effects of Worker Participation, Employee Ownership and Profit Sharing on Economic Performance: A Partial Review...DEREK C. JONES AND JEFFREY PLISKIN Classical and Neoclassical Elements in Industrial Organization... MARK GLICK AND EDUARDO M. OCHOA The Financially Fragile Firm: Is There a Case for It in the 1920s?... D.L. ISENBERG Unionization and Labour Regimes: A Comparison Between Canada and the U.S. Since 1945...DAVID KETTLER, JAMES STRUTHERS AND CHRISTOPHER HUXLEY Social Progress after the Age of Progressivism: The End of Trade Unionism the West...DAVID KETTLER AND VOLKER MEJA Profitability and the Time-Varying Liquidity Premium in the Term Structure of Interest Rates...TRACY MOTT AND DAVID ZEN A Dynamic Approach to the Theory of Effective Demand...ANWAR JARSULIC Model...TRACY MOTT SHAIKH in
No. 14
December
1988
No. 15
January
1989
No. 16
January
1989
No. 17
February
1989
No. 18
March 1989
No. 19
No. 20 No. 21 No. 22
The Structure of Class Conflict in a Kaleckian-Keynesian Debt and Macro Stability...MARC JARSULIC
No. 23 No. 24
Viability
and Equilibrium:
CARTELIER Structure...
No. 25 No. 26
MOTT Interpretation..
No. 27
Money and Equilibrium: Two Alternative Activities...JEAN CARTELlER The Covariance Transformation Fixed Effects Model...JEFFREY
Modes of Coordination
of Economic
June 1989
No. 28
Variables
Estimator of the
July 1989
No. 29
Unionization and the Incidence of Performance-Based DEREK C. JONES AND JEFFREY PLISKIN Growth Cycles in a Discrete, Nonlinear The Changing Model...MARC
Compensation
in Canada...
August 1989
JARSULIC ISENBERG
The Effects of Mergers on Prices, Costs, and Capacity Utilization in the U.S. Air Transportation Industry, 1970-84...FRANK R. LICHTENBERG AND MOSHE KIM What Remains of the Growth Controversy?...NANCY The Determinants of U.S. Foreign Production: Comparative Advantage...THOMAS KARIER Industrial De-Diversification FRANK R. LICHTENBERG The Microeconomics What Happened The Mathematics J. WULWICK Power, and
No. 33 No. 34
December January
1989 1990
Unions, Monopoly
No. 35
for Productivity...
January
1990
of Monopoly
Power...THOMAS
KARIER KARIER
April 1990 May 1990 July 1990 November November December 1990 1990 1990
to the Corporate
Profit Tax?...THOMAS
J. WULWICK
of Phillips Data...NANCY
Generalized Entropy Measures of Long-Run Inequality Male Headed Households...SOURUSHE ZANDVAKILI Poverty and Choice of Marital Status: A Self-Selection International Comparison of Household Inequalities: with Decompositions...SOURUSHE ZANDVAKILI
No. 42 No. 43
Model...JOAN
R. RODGERS
December December
1990 1990
No. 44
Accounting for the Decline in Private Sector Unionization: Elections, Structural Change and Restructuring...THOMAS
Representation KARIER
February
1991
Female-Headed Redistribution
R. RODGERS ZANDVAKILI
Comparison...SOlJRlJSHE History...
and Depressions:
No. 48
The Economic Significance of Equity Capital: Lessons from Venture an Economist-Practitioner...WILLlAM H. JANEWAY The Role of Banks Where Service Replication RICHARD ASPINWALL How Useful Are Comparisons ALBERT GAILORD HART Financial Crises: Systemic Debt, Price Flexibility
Investing
by
April 1991
No. 49
Franchises...
April 1991
No. 50
April 1991
No. 51
No. 52 No. 53 No. 54
or Idiosyncratic...HYMAN Stability...JOHN
and Aggregate
A Critical Analysis of Empirical Studies of Transfers Why the Ex-Communist Countries Economy...KENNETH KOFORD
W. CAMPBELL
No. 55
The Measurement of Chronic and Transitory Poverty; with Application United States...JOAN R. RODGERS AND JOHN L. RODGERS W(h)ither the Middle Class? A Dynamic View...GREG AND WILLARD RODGERS Why Were Poverty
to the
June 1991
No. 56
J. DUNCAN, TIMOTHY
SMEEDING,
July 1991
No. 57 No. 58
M. BLANK
No. 59
The Health, Earnings Capacity, and Poverty of Single-Mother BARBARA L. WOLFE AND STEVEN HILL
Families...
July 1991
No. 60
Who Are the Truly Poor? Patterns of Official and Net Earnings Capacity 1973_1988...ROBERT HAVEMAN AND LARRY BURON
Poverty,
July 1991
No. 61
Changes in Earnings Differentials in the 1980s: Concordance, Convergence, and Consequences...MC KINLEY L. BLACKBURN, DAVID E. BLOOM AND RICHARD B. FREEMAN The Changing Contributions Income, 1968_1988...MARIA PETER GOTTSCHALK of Men and Women to the Level and Distribution CANCIAN, SHELDON DANZIGER AND
Causes,
July 1991
No. 62
of Family
July 1991
No. 63
Wealth Accumulation of the Elderly in Extended Families in Japan and the Distribution of Wealth Within Japanese Cohorts by Household Composition: Analysis of the Literature...DAVID W. CAMPBELL
September A Critical
1991
No. 64 No. 65
Market Processes
and Thwarting
Systems...PlERO
November November
1991 1991
No. 66 No. 67
Financial
Options...HYMAN
P. MINSKY
November December
1991 1991
Employment Restructuring and the Labor Market Status of Young Black Men in the 1980s...DAVID R. HOWELL Transfer and Life Cycle Wealth in Japan, 1974-1984...DAVID W. CAMPBELL
No. 68 No. 69
January January
1992 1992
Reconstituting the United States Financial Issues...HYMAN P. MINSKY The Distributional Implications SOURUSHE ZANDVAKILI
No. 70
in the 198Os...
January
1992
No. 71
Macroeconomic Market Incentive Plans: History and Theoretical KENNETH J. KOFORD and JEFFREY B. MILLER The Capital Development HYMAN P. MINSKY Money, of the Economy
Rationale...
January
1992
No. 72
Institutions...
January
1992
RAO
The Financial
Hypothesis...HYMAN in Triggering
MCCARTHY
The Predication Semantics Model: The Role of Predicate Class in Text Comprehension and Recall...ALTHEA A. TURNER, PAUL B. ANDREASSEN, BRUCE K. BRITTON, DEBORAH McCUTCHEN The Investment Decision of the Post Keynesian Firm: A Suggested Microfoundation Minskys Investment Instability Thesis...JAMES R. CROTTY and JONATHAN A. GOLDSTEIN Growth and Structural Change in China-US Trade...HONG WANG for
No. 79
September
1992
No. 80 No. 81
September September
1992 1992
The Impact of Profitability, Financial Fragility and Competitive Regime Shifts on Investment Demand: Empirical Evidence...JAMES R. CROTTY and JONATHAN A. GOLDSTEIN Job Quality and Labor Market Segmentation on the Effects of Employment Restructuring GITTLEMAN and DAVID R. HOWELL in the 1980s: A New Perspective by Race and Gender...MAURY B.
No. 82
March 1993
No. 83
Community Development Banks...HYMAN P. MINSKY, DIMITRI B. PAPADIMITRIOU, RONNIE J. PHILLIPS and L. RANDALL WRAY
December
1992
No. 84
Economics
Education
in the US..
February
1993
No. 85 No. 86
Between
J. ERENBURG System
February
1993
The Origins of Money and the Development ...L. RANDALL WRAY The Psychology
March 1993
No. 87 No. 88
The Limits of Prudential Supervision: Economic and Competence...BERNARD SHULL Profits for Economists...THOMAS Narrow Banks: An Alternative KARIER
Approach
G. KAUFMAN P. MINSKY
Productivity, Private and Public Capital, and Real Wage in the United States 1948-1990... SHARON J. ERENBURG The Community Reinvestment Development Banks...DIMITRI L. RANDALL WRAY Act, Lending Discrimination, and the Role of Community B. PAPADIMITRIOU, RONNIE J. PHILLIPS, and
No. 95
May 1993
No. 96
Mortgage Default Among Rural, Low Income Borrowers...ROBERTO GEORGE W. MC CARTHY. MICHAEL A. STEGMAN Is Health Insurance Investment Crippling the Labor Market?...DOUGLAS
G. QUERCIA,
June 1993
No. 97
No. 98 No. 99
and Schumpeterian
No. 100
Avoiding a Future of Unemployment and Low Wages: What Opportunities to Young Unskilled Workers?...ROBERT M. HUTCHENS Technological Change and the Demand for Skills in the 1980s: Does Skill Mismatch Explain the Growth of Low Earnings?...DAVID R. HOWELL Credibility of the lnterwar Gold Standard, Uncertainty, Great Depression...J. PETER FERDERER Business Tax Incentives The Anatomy of Changing of Determinants...ROBERT and Investment...THOMAS and the
Are Open
October
1993
No. 101
November
1993
No. 102
January
1994
KARIER
February February
1994 1994
No. 105
The Collapse of Low-Skill Male Earnings in the 1980s: Skill Mismatch or Shifting Wage Norms?...DAVlD R. HOWELL The Role of Consistent Implementation of Policy: An Assessment of the Section 502 Low-Income Homeownership Program...GEORGE MC CARTHY, JR., ROBERTO QUERCIA and GABOR BOGNAR Economic inactivity of Young Adults: An Intergenerational and BARBARA WOLFE Community-Based PAPADIMITRIOU, Analysis...ROBERT HAVEMAN
March 1994
No. 106
March 1994
No. 107
March 1994
No. 108
Factoring Companies and Small Business Lending...DIMITRI RONNIE J. PHILLIPS and L. RANDALL WRAY Profits Tax Revisited: A Post Keynesian
B.
April 1994
No. 109
The Incidence of the Corporate ANTHONY J. LARAMIE Banking Industry Consolidation: GARY WHALEN Banking Industry Consolidation: DANIEL E. NOLLE
Approach...
April 1994
No. 110
Efficiency Issues...ROBERT
DE YOUNG and
April 1994
No. 111
April 1994
No. 112
Business Strategies: Bank Commercial DONALD G. SIMONSON Lines of Credit and Relationship and GREGORY F. UDELL Banking in Transition...GEORGE
Lending...
April 1994
No. 113
N. BERGER
April 1994
The Economic Consequences of Weintraubs Consumption ANTHONY J. LARAMIE, JAN TOPOROWSKI The Regulation and Supervision RONNIE J. PHILLIPS Chief Executive Compensation Micro Data...TAKAO KATO
No. 116
An Historical
Perspective...
May 1994
No. 117
and Corporate
from
May 1994
in International
Economics...WILLIAM
MILBERG Spread...
Liquidity, Uncertainty, and the Declining Predictive Power of the Paper-Bill J. PETER FERDERER, STEPHEN C. VOGT, RAVI CHAHIL The Productivity Convergence Debate: A Theoretical ...BRUCE ELMSLIE and WILLIAM MILBERG and Methodological
No. 120
Reconsideration
June 1994
No. 121
The Timing of Promotion to Top Management in the U.S. and Japan: A Duration Analysis...TAKAO KATO and LARRY W. TAYLOR Recent Trends in U.S. Male Work and Wage Patterns: An Overview...LAWRENCE ROBERT HAVEMAN and OWEN ODONNELL BURON,
July 1994
No. 122
August 1994
No. 123
The Utilisation of U.S. Male Labor, 1975-l 992: Estimates of Foregone LAWRENCE BURON. ROBERT HAVEMAN and OWEN ODONNELL Flying Blind: The Federal Reserves Experiment with Unobservables... DIMITRI B. PAPADIMITRIOU and L. RANDALL WRAY Profit Sharing and Gainsharing: A Review of Theory, Incidence DEREK C. JONES, TAKAO KATO and JEFFREY PLISKIN
Work Hours...
August 1994
No. 124
September
1994
No. 125
and Effects...
September
1994
No. 126
Financial Institutions, Economic Policy and the Dynamic Behavior of the Economy... DOMENICO DELLI GATTI, MAURO GALLEGATI and HYMAN P. MINSKY Financial Instability and the Decline (?) of Banking: HYMAN P. MINSKY Public Policy Implications...
October
1994
No. 127
October
1994