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Technical Research | March 23, 2012

Daily Technical Report Sensex (17196) / NIFTY (5228)


Yesterday, once again markets opened on a flat note in-line other Asian indices. Strong selling pressure in the second half of the session led indices to close near the days low marginally above 5200 mark. Weak economy data from China and Germany coupled with disturbing news flow from the Government were cited as the main reasons for the selloff. On the sectoral front, Realty, Power, Banking and Capital Goods sectors were among the major losers during yesterdays session. There was no sector on the gaining side. The advance to decline ratio was strongly in favor of declining counters. (A=890 D=2009) (Source www.bseindia.com)

Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart

Formation:
The 200-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 20day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) have now shifted to 17131 / 5157 and 17575 / 5329, respectively.
Source: Falcon

Trading strategy:
Markets opened quietly yesterday and traded in a narrow range during the first half. As mentioned, strong selling pressure in the second half led indices to break intraday support level of 17509 / 5329 and close marginally below the previously mentioned support level of 17211 / 5233. Going forward, selling pressure is likely to intensify further if indices trade convincingly below yesterdays low of 17136 / 5205. In this scenario, they are likely to test strong 200day SMA support zone of 17131 17008 / 5170 5157 levels. On the upside, 17410 / 5297 levels may act as a resistance in coming trading session.

Actionable points:
View Expected Targets Resistance Level Negative Below 5205 5170 - 5157 - 5100 5297

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Technical Research | March 23, 2012

Bank Nifty Outlook - (10174)


Yesterday, in line with our benchmark indices, the Bank Nifty too witnessed immense selling pressure which dragged the index lower to test the trend line support formed by joining the lows of January 30, 2012 March 7, 2012. This support coincides with the swing low of 10135. Unfortunately, the pace of the fall in yesterdays trading session indicates that the positive momentum seen on Wednesday is nothing but a whipsaw. As a result, the RSI momentum oscillator has once again fallen below 50 which is a sign of weakness. Thus a sustainable move below 10135 level will further intensify the selling pressure and the index may drift to test 10014 9939 levels. On the upside 10370 10413 levels are likely to act as resistance in coming trading session. Exhibit 2: Bank Nifty Daily Chart

Actionable points:
View Expected Target Resistance Levels Negative Below 10135 10014 9939 10370 10413

Source: Falcon

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Technical Research | March 23, 2012

Negative Bias:
Negative Below 542 120.2 Expected Target 525 110.5

Stock Name Jindal Steel Reliance Power

CMP 546.6 121.1

5 Day EMA 573.6 126.3

20 Day EMA 581.7 125.7

Remarks View will change above 560 View will change above 128

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Technical Research | March 23, 2012

Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty 50 Stocks


SCRIPS SENSEX NIFTY BANKNIFTY ACC AMBUJACEM AXISBANK BAJAJ-AUTO BHARTIARTL BHEL BPCL CAIRN CIPLA COALINDIA DLF DRREDDY GAIL HCLTECH HDFC HDFCBANK HEROMOTOCO HINDALCO HINDUNILVR ICICIBANK IDFC INFY ITC JINDALSTEL JPASSOCIAT KOTAKBANK LT M&M MARUTI NTPC ONGC PNB POWERGRID RANBAXY RCOM RELIANCE RELINFRA RPOWER SAIL SBIN SESAGOA SIEMENS STER SUNPHARMA SUZLON TATAMOTORS TATAPOWER TATASTEEL TCS WIPRO S2 16,869 5,093 9,850 1,286 162 1,122 1,628 316 252 657 330 293 323 184 1,637 353 454 644 487 1,908 128 385 864 129 2,779 213 516 72 492 1,242 664 1,300 166 266 905 103 395 83 707 543 114 89 2,083 189 749 109 551 26 259 93 429 1,143 411 S1 17,033 5,161 10,012 1,315 165 1,149 1,658 320 256 668 337 296 331 189 1,651 357 466 652 495 1,927 131 390 882 132 2,804 216 531 74 505 1,269 675 1,315 169 268 925 105 403 86 722 565 117 92 2,122 194 768 111 558 27 265 96 439 1,155 416 PIVOT 17,360 5,273 10,298 1,360 170 1,196 1,702 327 265 684 349 301 338 197 1,666 365 481 661 509 1,944 135 398 911 138 2,839 222 558 78 525 1,317 690 1,336 173 272 956 107 414 90 747 600 124 96 2,189 201 791 115 568 28 274 101 458 1,172 424 R1 17,523 5,341 10,460 1,389 174 1,224 1,732 331 270 696 357 305 346 202 1,680 369 492 669 518 1,963 137 404 929 142 2,864 225 573 81 538 1,344 701 1,352 175 274 977 108 423 92 761 621 128 98 2,227 205 810 117 575 29 279 104 468 1,185 430 R2 17,851 5,454 10,746 1,434 179 1,271 1,775 338 278 712 368 310 353 210 1,695 377 507 679 531 1,980 141 412 958 148 2,899 230 599 85 559 1,391 717 1,373 179 278 1,008 110 434 97 786 656 134 102 2,294 212 833 120 584 30 288 108 486 1,202 438

Technical Research Team


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Technical Research | March 23, 2012 Technical Report

RESEARCH TEAM
Shardul Kulkarni Sameet Chavan Sacchitanand Uttekar Mehul Kothari Ankur Lakhotia Head - Technicals Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst

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