Biometry 1999 Final exam

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Remember to always state Ho, Ha, the assumptions of the test and the critical value you will use to make your decision. Set = 0.05, unless otherwise stated. One page of handwritten notes and a calculator are all that should be out. Do not use stats. functions on calculators to do your statistics: always show all work, including intermediate stages. Please write your name on every page. There are 10 questions and 12 pages. Score on the exam (out of 101)................ Grade in class........................

1. (12 points) Following is length of fore and hind leg of 7 shrews collected from a Scottish moor (in mm.). Fore (Xi) 17.3 17.5 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.1 18.3
3

Hind (Yi) di Ranks 17.4 -0.1 -3.5 17.5 0 1.5 17.4 0.2 5 18.2 -0.4 -7 18.1 -0.1 -3.5 18.1 0 1.5 18.6 -0.3 -6

mean di = -0.7/7 = -0.1 SS = .24 sd = .2 se = .076

i. What is Xi ?
i=2

35.1 ii. Test the hypothesis that hind legs differ from forelegs, using a parametric test. Show all working and intermediate steps (including sums of squares and standard deviation). What test are you going to use? paired t-test Ho: = 0 Ha: <> 0 Assume RS of dis from normal DR: reject if abs (t) > t ( = 0.05, 6 df) = 2.447 t = -0.1/0.076 = 1.316. DO NOT REJECT Ho

Biometry 1999 Final exam

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iii. Repeat the test using a non-parametric test. What test are going to use? Wilcoxon signed rank test Ho: median difference = 0 Ha median difference <> 0 assume: dis are RS from continuous distribution reject if T+ or T- < Tcrit (=0.05, n = 7) = 2 T+ = 6.5 T- = 21.5. do not reject Ho (split on 0s: the question as written was not well posed, and other ways of dealing with the zeros are acceptable)

2. (4 points) Summary statistics for body weights of a random sample of 16 people in a city are: mean = 65kg + 5kg S.D. (standard deviation). Calculate the 99% confidence limits for the population mean and interpret those limits. se = 1.25 t (=0.05, 15df) = 2.947 CL = 65 + 5/4 * 2.947 = (61.316, 68.684) The true mean may lie either within or outside these limits. However we know that 99% of all confidence limits constructed in the same way will contain the true mean. 3.(12 points) i. Twig thickness and leaf size were measured for 17 randomly chosen tree species. The Pearson correlation coefficient between these two traits was found to be r = 0.51. Given this information, test the hypothesis that twig thickness and leaf size are correlated across tree species. Ho: = 0 Ha: <> 0 Assume: RS of leaves from a bivariate normal distribution. DR Reject if r>rcrit (15df) = 0.482 Reject Ho, and conclude that twig thickness and leaf size are correlted in the population

Biometry 1999 Final exam

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ii. The Spearmans rank correlation coefficient for the same data was found to be rs = 0.37. Use this information to test the hypothesis that twig thickness and leaf size are correlated. Ho rank correlation = 0 Ha rank correlation <> 0 assume: RS, continuous distributions for both size and thickness. DR reject Ho if rs>rs crit (n=17) = 0.412 (approx) Do not reject Ho

iii. Explain any difference in your conclusions from the tests in (i) and (ii) Because the rank correlation test makes fewer assumptions it is less powerful, meaning it is more likely to fail to reject Ho when Ho if alse. 4. (15 points) Following is a regression of brain weight against body weight for 14 hypothetical reptiles, as produced by StatView. Assume the regression slope is Y = -10.0 + 0.8 X. The ANOVA table is given below the plot.

Regression Plot 19 18.8 18.6 18.4 18.2 brain (g) 18 17.8 17.6 17.4 17.2 17 16.8 34.5 34.75

35.25 35.5 35.75 body weight (kg) Y = -10.06 + .785 * X; R^2 = .812

35

36

36.25 36.5 36.75

Biometry 1999 Final exam

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ANOVA Table brain (g) vs. body weight (kg) DF Sum of Squares Regression Residual Total 1 12 13 3.987 .923 4.910

Mean Square 3.987 .077

F-Value 51.826

P-Value <.0001

i) What are the units for the regression slope, b? g/kg ii) What is the predicted value of an animal with a body weight of 35kg? 18 g iii) Mean body weight is 35.5, and the Sums of squares for body weight is 5kg2. What are the 95% confidence limits for the predicted value in part (ii)? se (pred) = sqrt(MSR(1/n + (x-xbar)2/ss)) = srqt (0.077*(1/14 + (35-35.5)2/5)) = 0.097 CL = 18+ 0.097*t ( = 0.05, 12df) = (17.79, 18.21)

iv) Provide a verbal interpretation of the 95% confidence limits for the predicted value. The true mean value for Y at X=35kg may lie inside or outside these limits. However if we were to calculate a regrssion based on repeated collections of 14 animals, the confidence limits constructed in ths way would contain the true mean value for Y 95% of the time. v) Calculate the 95% predictive interval for brain weight at a body weight of X=35kg se (pred) = sqrt(MSR(1+ 1/n + (x-xbar)2/ss)) = srqt (0.077*(1+ 1/14 + (35-35.5)2/5)) = 0.294 CL = 18+ 0.294*t ( = 0.05, 12df) = (17.36, 18.64) Probability that a new Y observation will lie between these limits is 0.95 vi)What is the estimate of the population variance in the residuals about the regression line

Biometry 1999 Final exam of Y on X? MSR = 0.077

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viii) The sums of squares for Y (brain weight) is 4.91 (from the ANOVA table), and the sums of squares for X (body weight) is 5 (from above). Calculate the regression slope of X on Y (byx). byx = 0.8 = sum((x-xbar)*(y-ybar)/ SS for X sum((x-xbar)*(y-ybar) = 0.8*5 = 4 bxy = sum((x-xbar)*(y-ybar)/ SS for Y = 4/4.91 = 0.81

5. (10 points) Following are data from two islands on the survival of two color morphs of a snail, when a bird predator as introduced: Island 1 Black Dead Alive 70 5 Banded 1000 100 Dead Alive Island 2 Black 500 500 Banded 20 80

i) What test would you use to see which color morph provides better protection on each island? chi-square contingency ii) conduct the test for island 2 only. Ho no association between color and mortality Ha there is an association assume rs of snails

Biometry 1999 Final exam DR reject if chi-sq > chi-sq crit, 1df = 3.84 expected values are Dead Alive 472.73 527.27 47.27 52.73

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sum (0-E-0.5)2/E = 31.262, reject Ho iii) from your inspection of the data, which color morph provides better protection (do no test)? Banded: prob of survival of banded is higher on each island iv) from your inspection of the data, on which island is there higher predation levels (do no test)? Island 1, here more than 80% of the snails are eaten v) If a researcher was unaware that there were two different islands, he/she might combine the data.Black Banded Dead Alive 570 505 1020 180

Which color morph seems to provide more protection? Do not do any test. Black vi) Which color morph do you conclude provides the better protection (do no test)? Explain any differences between your answers to parts iii, v and vi. Banded. The banded snails unfortunately found themselves on the island of high predation, even though they were better protected.

Biometry 1999 Final exam

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6. (10 points) Two populations of mice were studied; the sample from population 1 was of size n1 = 15 and that from population 2 of size n2 = 10. The weights of the mice are listed below.Sample 1 10.1 10.5 10.5 10.7 10.8 10.8 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.5 11.7 11.7 11.8 12.2 Sample 2 9.1 9.3 9.4 9.7 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.4

i) Draw a cumulative relative frequency plot for sample 1; label axes. Indicate the median.
16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

rel. freqy

1 0 10.2 10.5 10.8 1 1 11.2 11.5 11.8

1 2 12.2 12.5

Mouse weight note: Y axis should run from 0 to 1.0

Median (at 11.0).

Biometry 1999 Final exam

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ii) Test the hypothesis that the medians of the two populations differ, using a nonparametric test. State the test you are going to use. Mann-Whitney U test Ho: medians same Ha: medians differ Assume: RSs from cont. distr., shapes more or less the same. DR reject if U or U > Ucrit = 111 U= 4; U = 146 Reject Ho

7. (8 points) Individuals of three species of butterflies (P. rutulus (group 1), P. glaucus (group 2), P. eurymedon (group 3)) were collected and their 8th tergite measured (in mm.). Following is the result from a one way ANOVA designed to ask if there are differences among the species.

One Factor ANOVA X 1 : Column 3

Y 1

: 8th tergite (mm *8)

Analysis of Variance Table Source: Within groups Total DF: 88 90 Sum Squares: 40.198 240.912 281.11 Mean Square: 20.099 2.738 F-test: 7.342 p = .0011 Between groups 2

Model II estimate of between component variance = .612

Biometry 1999 Final exam

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Y 1 : 8th tergite (mm *8)

One Factor ANOVA X 1 : Column 3

Group: Group 1 Group 2 Group 3

Count: 27 45 19

Mean: 20.352 18.922 18.842

Std. Dev.: 1.399 1.825 1.555

Std. Error: .269 .272 .357

i. What are the assumptions behind the test? Each population is normally distributed with the same variance. Random samples are drawn from each pop.

ii. What is the best estimate of the population variance for each population? 2.738 iii. Is this a random effects or a fixed effects model? fixed effects iv. Write down the null hypothesis that the mean of group 1 is equal to the average of the means of group 1 and 2, using symbolic form. What are the coefficients, c1, c2 and c3 which would be used in the Sheffe test? 1-2/2-3/2=0 c1 = 1; c2 = 0.5; c3 = 0.5

Biometry 1999 Final exam

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8.(14 points) i. Name the two main methods for disentangling correlation and causation. Multiple regression Experimental manipulation of the independent variable

ii. Wengensteen invented gastric freezing in 1958 as a method to cure stomach ulcers: a coolant was pumped into a balloon in the stomach for 1 hour and out of 24 patients, all were apparently cured. Why should we be suspicious of Wengensteens invention? There is no control. Perhaps the patients recovered as a result of some placebo effect (in fact this was the case)

iii. Supposing we wished to know if people prefer 7-up over coke. We go to the local cafeteria and in a sample of 50 people in the cafe 90% say they prefer coke. A chisquare test reveals strong deviation from 50:50, so we conclude that indeed people prefer coke. Why should a statistician be suspect of this result? There is no attempt at random sampling: this looks like a sample of convenience, and the local cafe may have just served horrible 7-up to everyone.

iv. What is the purpose of the sequential bonferroni test? Briefly explain how it is carried out. To correct for the problem of inflated type 1 errors (more likely to reject Ho when it is true); provided one does enough tests one will always find one test which is significant at any specified . In the sequentil bonferroni, set new = /n, where n is the number of tests. If smallest P value in the data set is less than this proceed to set a second at /(n-1), and search for the second lowest P value. Continue this process until one reaches a test which fails to reject Ho.

Biometry 1999 Final exam

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v. For a species of wren I compared average clutch sizes of birds on islands with those on continents, and found no significant differences (P > 0.5). I therefore conclude that islands and continents do not differ in average clutch size, and combine them for subsequent analyses. Statements to this effect are commonly found in the literature. What is the inherent problem with such a statement, and how might you further assess the validity of the researcher combining samples? This is tacit acceptance of Ho, when we really can only fail to reject Ho. Even large differences may not be significantly different if the sample size is small or the variance large. A good way to assess validity of combining samples is to see if indeed the mean values are very similar.

vi. In general, what are the two ways by which we can increase the power of a test without increasing the probability of making a type 1 error (a type 1 error is rejecting Ho when it is true)? i) reduce extraneous (noise) variance, e.g in a split plot design ii) increase sample size

vii. A researcher found that a 95% confidence limit for the mean, , lies between 1 and 3. He presented the results as follows P(1 < < 3) = 0.95. What is wrong with this method of presenting the 95% limits? The mean is a number; it makes no sense to ask what the probability is of some number to lie between two other numbers; the probability is either 1 or 0.

Biometry 1999 Final exam 9. (12 points) What is the probability that i) z > 1.96, when Ho is true? 0.5 - 0.475 = 0.025

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ii) The mean of two measurements randomly sampled from a normal distribution (with mean zero and standard deviation 1) is greater than 1.0? standard deviation of Xbar = 1/sqrt(2) = 0.71 P (Xbar>1) = P(z > (1-0)/0.71)) = P (z > 1.414) = 0.5- 0.4207 = 0.0793

iii) A t-statistic with 10 degrees of freedom is greater than 1.812 and less than 3.169, when Ho is true? 2-tailed probability from Tab A.2 is 0.09; therefore 1-tailed probability is 0.045

iv) I draw two red balls in a row from an urn which contains 3 red and 3 green balls, when I do not replace the first ball I draw before removing the second? 1/2 * 2/5 = 1/5 v) The chi-square statistic (2) > 0? 1 vi) P < when Ho is true? 1- 10. (4 points) Sketch a binomial distribution with parameters n = 3 trials, p (success) = 0.25. What is the mean of this distribution? Mean = 0.75