Green Mtn Coffe (GMCR)

Industry: Food/Drug-Retail/Wholesale

Price: $65.93

Chaikin Power Gauge Report | Generated: Wed Feb 29 11:40 EST 2012 Power Gauge Rating

GMCR - Very Bearish

The Chaikin Power Gauge Rating for GMCR is very bearish due to very poor financial metrics, very bearish price/volume activity and negative expert opinions. The rating also reflects very strong earnings performance. GMCR's financial metrics are very poor due to a high price to book value ratio and high price to sales ratio.
TM

News Sentiment Rating

Neutral
GMCR Green Mtn Co.. February 17, 2012

Chaikin Sentiment Gauge for GMCR is neutral. Stories concerning GMCR have a balanced or neutral sentiment.

TM

News Sentiment :Neutral

Power Trend - 5 Year Chart

The Power Gauge distills a 20 factor model into a concise picture of a stock's potential.

High Potential

Neutral

Low Potential

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Financials & Earnings

Financial Metrics

Financial Metrics Rating

LT Debt/Equity Ratio

Very Bearish
GMCR's financial metrics are very poor. The company may be overvalued and has relatively low revenue per share. The rank is based on a high price to book value ratio, high return on equity, high price to sales ratio and relatively low cash flow.

Price to Book Value

Return on Equity

Price to Sales Ratio

Business Value

Assets and Liabilities

Ratio Current Ratio LT Debt/Equity TTM 2.41 0.30

Valuation
Ratio Price/Book Price/Sales TTM 5.02 3.85

Returns
Ratio Return on Invest Return on Equity TTM 13.6% 18.7%

Earnings Performance

Earnings Performance Rating

Earnings Growth

Very Bullish
GMCR's earnings performance has been very strong. The company has a history of strong earnings growth and has outperformed analysts' earnings estimates. The rank is based on high earnings growth over the past 3-5 years, better than expected earnings in recent quarters, an upward trend in earnings this year, a relatively high projected P/E ratio and consistent earnings over the past 5 years.

Earnings Surprise

Earnings Trend

Projected P/E Ratio

Earnings Consistency

5 Year Revenue and Earnings Growth

09/07 Revenue(M) Rev % Growth EPS EPS % Growth 341.65 51.63% $0.12 46.99% 09/08 500.28 46.43% $0.21 69.67% 09/09 803.04 60.52% $0.49 136.71% 09/10 1,356.78 68.95% $0.60 22.45% 09/11 2,650.90 95.38% $1.36 126.67%

EPS Estimates
Factor Quarterly EPS Yearly EPS Factor 3-5 year EPS Actual EPS Prev $0.46 $1.36 Actual EPS Growth 64.58% EST EPS Current $0.64 $2.66 Est EPS Growth 32.88% Change +0.18 +1.30 Change -31.70

EPS Surprise
Estimate Latest Qtr 1 Qtr Ago 2 Qtr Ago 3 Qtr Ago $0.36 $0.48 $0.36 $0.38 Actual $0.60 $0.47 $0.49 $0.48 Difference $0.24 $-0.01 $0.13 $0.10 % Difference 66.67 -2.08 36.11 26.32

EPS Quarterly Results

FY 09/10 09/11 09/12 Qtr 1 $0.10 $0.02 $0.68 Qtr 2 $0.19 $0.46 Qtr 3 $0.14 $0.38 Qtr 4 $0.20 $0.49 Total $0.62 $1.35 -

Fiscal Year End Month is September.

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Price Trend & Expert Opinions

Price/Volume Activity

Price/Volume Activity Rating

Relative Strength vs Market

Very Bearish
Price and volume activity for GMCR is very bearish. GMCR has underperformed the S&P 500 over 26 weeks and has a declining price trend. The rank for GMCR is based on its relative weakness versus the market, negative Chaikin money flow, a negative Chaikin price trend, a positive Chaikin price trend ROC and a decreasing volume trend.

Chaikin Money Flow

Price Trend

Price Trend ROC

Volume Trend

Relative Strength vs S&P500 Index

Chaikin Money Flow

Chart shows whether GMCR is performing better or worse than the market.

Chaikin Money Flow analyzes supply and demand for a company's stock.

Price Activity
Factor 52 Week High 52 Week Low % Change YTD Rel S&P 500 Value 111.62 40.35 35.88%

Price Activity
Factor % Change Price - 4 Weeks % Change Price - 24 Weeks % Change Price - 4 Wks Rel to S&P % Change Price - 24 Wks Rel to S&P Value 23.62% -40.52% 18.24% -49.16%

Volume Activity
Factor Average Volume 20 Days Average Volume 90 Days Chaikin Money Flow Persistency Value 5,951,940 7,741,953 52%

Expert Opinions

Expert Opinions

Earnings Estimate Revisions

Bearish
Expert opinions about GMCR are negative. Short interest in GMCR is high and insiders are not net buyers of GMCR's stock. The rank for GMCR is based on analysts revising earnings estimates upward, a high short interest ratio, insiders not purchasing significant amounts of stock, optimistic analyst opinions and price strength of the stock versus the Food/DrugRetail/Wholesale industry group.

Short Interest

Insider Activity

Analyst Opinions

Relative Strength vs Industry

Earnings Estimate Revisions

Current Current Qtr Next Qtr 0.64 0.72 Current Current FY 2.66 7 Days Ago % Change 0.64 0.72 0.00% 0.00%

Analyst Recommendations
Factor Mean this Week Mean Last Week Change Mean 5 Weeks Ago Value Buy Buy 0.00 Buy

EPS Estimates Revision Summary

Last Week Up Curr Qtr Curr Yr Next Qtr 0 0 0 0 Down 0 0 0 0 Last 4 Weeks Up 0 10 2 5 Down 9 0 7 0

30 Days Ago % Change 2.57 0.09

Next Yr

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The Company & Its Competitors

GMCR's Competitors in Food/Drug-Retail/Wholesale

Company GMCR FARM NAFC CORE UNFI VSI SYY Power Gauge Historic EPS growth 64.58% 18.10% 2.06% 8.16% 13.47% 11.77% 3.87% Projected EPS growth 32.88% 14.50% 14.48% 20.50% 9.00% Profit Margin 9.32% -9.66% 0.93% 0.28% 1.59% 5.04% 2.80% PEG 0.75 0.83 1.65 1.17 1.70 PE 32.32 7.04 16.50 26.69 26.18 14.67 Revenue(M) 2,651 464 4,530 857 39,323

News Headlines for GMCR Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Completes Sale of Filterfresh Business to ARAMARK - Oct 3, 2011 Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Agrees to Sell Filterfresh Business to ARAMARK - Aug 29, 2011 Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Agrees to Sell Filterfresh Business to ARAMARK - Aug 29, 2011 Vt. utility to buy power from NH's Seabrook May 24, 2011 Green Mountain closes $905M Van Houtte acquisition - Dec 17, 2010

Company Details Green Mtn Coffe 33 COFFEE LANE WATERBURY, VT 05676 USA Phone: 8022445621 Fax: 802-244-5436 Website: http://http://www.greenmountaincoff ee.com Full Time Employees: 5,600 Sector: Retail/Wholesale

Company Profile Green Mountain Coffee Roasters engages in the production and marketing of awardwinning coffees, innovative brewing technology and gourmet single-cup brewing systems. The Company's operations are managed through three operating segments. The Specialty Coffee business unit sources, produces and sells coffee, cocoa, teas and other hot beverages. These varieties are sold primarily to wholesale channels. The Keurig business unit, a pioneer and leading manufacturer of gourmet single-cup brewing systems, targets its premium patented single-cup brewing systems for use at-home and away-from-home, mainly in North America. The Canadian business unit sources, produces and sells coffees in a variety of packaging formats, including K-Cup portion packs, whose brands include Van Houtte, Brlerie St. Denis, Brlerie Mont-Royal and Orient Express and its licensed Bigelow and Wolfgang Puck brands. Green Mountain Coffee Roasters is headquartered in Waterbury, Vermont.

Power Gauge Ratings are created using a relative ranking system that assigns a rank of 0 to 100 (100 being the highest) to each stock in the universe. Rank is calculated by evaluating each of the stocks factors and combining them into a single number using a weighting formula. A stock's rank ranges from 100-0, where 100 is the strongest, and a rank of 95 indicates the stock is better than 95% of the stocks in the universe. Chaikin Stock Research(CSR) is not registered as a securities broker dealer or investment advisor with either the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or with any state securities regulatory authority. CSR is not responsible for trades executed by users of this research report, our web site or mobile app based on the information included herein. The information presented in this report does not represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks or any financial instrument nor is it intended as an endorsement of any security or investment. The information in this report is generic by nature and is not personalized to the specific financial situation of any individual. The user bears complete responsibility for their own investment research and should seek the advice of a qualified investment professional before making any investment decisions. Copyright (c) 1978-(Present) by ZACKS Investment Research, Inc ("ZACKS"). The information, data, analyses and opinions contained herein (1) includes the confidential and proprietary information of ZACKS, (2) may not be copied or redistributed, for any purpose, (3) does not constitute investment advice offered by ZACKS, (4) are provided solely for informational purposes, and (5) are not warranted or represented to be correct, complete, accurate or timely. ZACKS shall not be responsible for investment decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, use of this information, data, analyses or opinions. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. ZACKS is not affiliated with Chaikin Power Tools. This report from Chaikin Power Tools is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities.

LM 2.3 DS 3.0 LS 2.1

Data Provided by ZACKS Investment Research, Inc., www.zacks.com

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