Anda di halaman 1dari 20

Willingnessto-Tolerate Robinson and Stoutenborough Outline Motivation Data Collection Descriptive Results Scaling Analysis Initial Inferential Results

Conclusions

Alternatives to Willing-to-Pay Measures for Homeland Security


Scott E. Robinson and James W. Stoutenborough

Robinson and Stoutenborough

Willingness-to-Tolerate

Willingnessto-Tolerate Robinson and Stoutenborough Outline Motivation Data Collection Descriptive Results Scaling Analysis Initial Inferential Results Conclusions

1 Motivation 2 Data Collection 3 Descriptive Results 4 Scaling Analysis 5 Initial Inferential Results 6 Conclusions

Robinson and Stoutenborough

Willingness-to-Tolerate

Motivation
Willingnessto-Tolerate Robinson and Stoutenborough Outline Motivation Data Collection Descriptive Results Scaling Analysis Initial Inferential Results Conclusions

Robinson and Stoutenborough

Willingness-to-Tolerate

Public Assessments of the Costs of Policy


Willingnessto-Tolerate Robinson and Stoutenborough Outline Motivation Data Collection Descriptive Results Scaling Analysis Initial Inferential Results Conclusions

How much is it worth to keep a local park open? Contingent valuation and willingness to pay techniques

Robinson and Stoutenborough

Willingness-to-Tolerate

Our Approach
Willingnessto-Tolerate Robinson and Stoutenborough Outline Motivation Data Collection Descriptive Results Scaling Analysis Initial Inferential Results Conclusions

Contingency evaluation and monetization What about non-monetary costs? Our core interest is in whether the dynamics of willingness to pay varies from the willingness to tolerate non-monetary costs

Robinson and Stoutenborough

Willingness-to-Tolerate

Data Collection
Willingnessto-Tolerate Robinson and Stoutenborough Outline Motivation Data Collection Descriptive Results Scaling Analysis Initial Inferential Results Conclusions

Robinson and Stoutenborough

Willingness-to-Tolerate

Survey Information
Willingnessto-Tolerate Robinson and Stoutenborough Outline Motivation Data Collection Descriptive Results Scaling Analysis Initial Inferential Results Conclusions

National random-digit phone survey conducted by the Public Policy Research Institute at Texas A&M University in association with the Institute of Science, Technology and Public Policy (also at Texas A&M University) in August 2009 Funding provided by the Domestic Nuclear Detection Oce (a component of DHS) Large survey with a variety of components including a demographic prole, political opinions, and embedded survey experiments N = 924

Robinson and Stoutenborough

Willingness-to-Tolerate

Descriptive Results
Willingnessto-Tolerate Robinson and Stoutenborough Outline Motivation Data Collection Descriptive Results Scaling Analysis Initial Inferential Results Conclusions

Robinson and Stoutenborough

Willingness-to-Tolerate

Three Dimensions of Costs


Willingnessto-Tolerate Robinson and Stoutenborough Outline Motivation Data Collection Descriptive Results Scaling Analysis Initial Inferential Results Conclusions

Please tell me whether you would be very willing, somewhat willing or not willing to accept the following government activities to reduce the risk of nuclear materials falling into the hands of terrorists:
Willingness to pay more Willingness to wait Willingness to sacrice personal privacy

Robinson and Stoutenborough

Willingness-to-Tolerate

Willingness to Pay
Willingnessto-Tolerate Robinson and Stoutenborough Outline Motivation Data Collection Descriptive Results Scaling Analysis Initial Inferential Results Conclusions

Government should take stronger steps in controlling nuclear materials, even if it means higher prices for you on imported goods. Not state of the art for WTP questions but comparable to the next pair

Robinson and Stoutenborough

Willingness-to-Tolerate

Willingness to Wait
Willingnessto-Tolerate Robinson and Stoutenborough Outline Motivation Data Collection Descriptive Results Scaling Analysis Initial Inferential Results Conclusions

Government should take stronger steps in controlling nuclear materials, even if it means longer waits for you when entering the country.

Robinson and Stoutenborough

Willingness-to-Tolerate

Willingness to Sacrice Privacy


Willingnessto-Tolerate Robinson and Stoutenborough Outline Motivation Data Collection Descriptive Results Scaling Analysis Initial Inferential Results Conclusions

Government should take stronger steps in controlling nuclear materials, even if it means giving up some of your personal privacy.

Robinson and Stoutenborough

Willingness-to-Tolerate

Scaling Analysis
Willingnessto-Tolerate Robinson and Stoutenborough Outline Motivation Data Collection Descriptive Results Scaling Analysis Initial Inferential Results Conclusions

Robinson and Stoutenborough

Willingness-to-Tolerate

Assumptions of a Scale Analysis


Willingnessto-Tolerate Robinson and Stoutenborough Outline Motivation Data Collection Descriptive Results Scaling Analysis Initial Inferential Results Conclusions

The basic assessment for scale analysis is whether there is a single (or denable) factor that underlies a series of similar measures stated informally: itemi,j = j + i +
i,j

A specic response from person j on item i is a product of a common factor , an item-specic component i and an error term i,j Factor extraction tries to pull j out of the noisy indicator itemi,j

Robinson and Stoutenborough

Willingness-to-Tolerate

Assumptions of a Scale Analysis


Willingnessto-Tolerate Robinson and Stoutenborough Outline Motivation Data Collection Descriptive Results Scaling Analysis Initial Inferential Results Conclusions

Factor analysis (principal component) with varimax rotation Single factor (second eigenvalue is negative) Factor correlations (.637, .705, .554) Uniqueness (.594, .504, .693) The single factor model behaves well (recovering j from the three measures) with balanced correlations and uniqueness

Robinson and Stoutenborough

Willingness-to-Tolerate

Initial Inferential Results


Willingnessto-Tolerate Robinson and Stoutenborough Outline Motivation Data Collection Descriptive Results Scaling Analysis Initial Inferential Results Conclusions

Robinson and Stoutenborough

Willingness-to-Tolerate

Expectations for Inferential Models


Willingnessto-Tolerate Robinson and Stoutenborough Outline Motivation Data Collection Descriptive Results Scaling Analysis Initial Inferential Results Conclusions

There does seem to be a single common factor to these measures Do the item specic components correlate with dierent variables?

Robinson and Stoutenborough

Willingness-to-Tolerate

Expectations for Inferential Models


Willingnessto-Tolerate Robinson and Stoutenborough Outline Motivation Data Collection Descriptive Results Scaling Analysis Initial Inferential Results Conclusions

Any dierent response is an indication of either:


1 2

noise substantive dierences in individual responses to specic costs

Our exploratory assumption is that if the dierences are systematic, they are of the second type

Robinson and Stoutenborough

Willingness-to-Tolerate

Summary of the Initial Models


Willingnessto-Tolerate Robinson and Stoutenborough Outline Motivation Data Collection Descriptive Results Scaling Analysis Initial Inferential Results Conclusions

Prediction of willingness based on some basic demographics NO factor is signicant in all models
Ideology (controlling for party ID) is positively related to willingness to wait Males are less willing to wait Education level is negative related to willingness to wait or give up privacy Age is positively related to the willingness to pay or give up privacy Income is positively related to willingness to pay or give up privacy

NOTE: This is all still quite preliminary


Robinson and Stoutenborough Willingness-to-Tolerate

Conclusions
Willingnessto-Tolerate Robinson and Stoutenborough Outline Motivation Data Collection Descriptive Results Scaling Analysis Initial Inferential Results Conclusions

There does seem to be a common factor across willingness measures However, the item-specic component vary systematically across respondents Is this item-sensitivity that should be factored out or interesting substantive dierences in item-sensitivity?

Robinson and Stoutenborough

Willingness-to-Tolerate