Final Report of the World Bank Project "Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Mountain Hydrology: Development of a Methodology

through a Case Study in Peru" October, 2009

CONTENT FINAL REPORT SUMMARY PART 1 - DESCRIPTION OF THE TASKS ASSIGNED TO IRD 1.1 - Task 1: Elaboration of selection criteria for the representations 1.2 - Task 2: Evaluation and choice of the models 1.3 - Task 3: Data acquisition for the river basins 1.4 - Task 4: Evaluation of climate change impacts 1.5 - Task 5: Documentation and dissemination PART 2 - COMPLETION OF THE ASSIGNED TASKS 2.1 - Task 1: Elaboration of selection criteria for the representations 2.2 - Task 2: Evaluation and choice of the models 2.3 - Task 3: Data acquisition for the river basins 2.4 - Task 4: Evaluation of climate change impacts 2.5 - Task 5: Documentation and dissemination PART 3 MODELLING THE RIMAC-MANTARO SYSTEM PART 4 CONCLUSION AND PROSPECTS REFERENCES
IRD-WB Contract 7148343 1 Final Report, October, 2009

FINAL REPORT SUMMARY This document constitutes the final report of Contract 7148343 between IRD and the World Bank, corresponding to the project "Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Mountain Hydrology: Development of a Methodology through a Case Study in Peru". The IRD contributors are Jean-Christophe Pouget, Wilson Suarez, Thomas Condom, Patrick Le Goulven. In this project between July 2008 and August 2009, IRD worked in close collaboration with Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI). Due to the existing IRD research network in Peru, IRD collaborated with several institutes including the Servicio Nacional de Meteorologa e Hidrologa del Per (SENAMHI), the Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina (UNAM), and the glacier and hydrological unit of ANA / INRENA. The current report begins with a summary of the tasks requested by the World Bank in IRDs original scope of work. Part 2 continues with a description of the work completed. Table 1 presents the work schedule, as envisaged initially, and as performed. Due to delays encountered by the project partners charged with producing future climate projections, IRD could not run the elaborated models for future scenarios, in order to evaluate climate change impacts on Andean hydrology, corresponding to Task 4. While collaborating with SEI, IRD led the development of the models of the Rimac and Mantaro river basins. Part 3 presents this modelling of the Rimac-Mantaro system, as it corresponds to the IRD work between April and August 2009. The report concludes with a section on prospects for future activity and includes the following documents: Appendix 1 Technical Report on glacier and high elevation wetlands model selection and parameterization - Condom T., Suarez W., Pouget J.C., Le Goulven P. June 2009 Technical Report on data acquisition and pre-processing for the Rio Santa, Rimac and Mantaro river basins in Peru - Suarez W., Pouget J.C., Condom T., Le Goulven P. September 2009 Manuscript: Modelling the Hydrologic Role of Glaciers within a Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP): A case study in the Rio Santa watershed (Peru) Condom T., Escobar M., Purkey D., Pouget J.C., Suarez W., Ramos C., Apaestegui J., Zapata M., Gomez J., Vergara W. - Submitted to Journal of Hydrology, July 2009

Appendix 2 -

Appendix 3 -

8/08 9/08 10/08 11/08 12/08 1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 Task 1 Task 2 Task 3 Task 4 Rimac-Mantaro Task 5 p.5.1 p.5.2 p.5.3 a.5.4

Table 1 Work Schedule

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envisaged initially

performed

Final Report, October, 2009

PART 1 - DESCRIPTION OF THE TASKS ASSIGNED TO IRD As the IRDs primary scientific responsibility on the project consists of choosing and calibrating appropriate models of tropical glaciers and high elevation Andean wetlands, the IRD research network was used to validate models on reference cases in the Rio Santa system and to extend these insights to two additional study basins (Figure 1.1). Although the IRD team in charge of project management operated out of Quito, Ecuador, IRD has proposed collaboration with a Peruvian colleague who recently completed a PhD on the Rio Santa system with the support of IRD (Suarez, 2007) and with an IRD researcher who works in Peru in high sites hydrology. The tasks initially assigned to IRD are presented below.

Figure 1.1. Map of study river basins location in Peru

1.1 - Task 1: Elaboration of selection criteria for representations of tropical glaciers and high elevation wetlands As there is a range of approaches available to represent tropical glaciers and high elevation wetlands, including statistical models, conceptual models, quasi-physical models, and process-based models, some criteria need to be established to assess which approach is the most accurate in the current project. One critical consideration will be the level of correspondence between the results expected, the various representations and the data availability in the first investigation basin which is the Rio Santa. 1.2 - Task 2: Evaluation and choice of glacier and high elevation wetlands models In order to select modelling approaches to simulate the evolution of glaciers and high elevation wetlands, we assess the performance of the various models on one well measured system (the Artesnraju glacier in the Rio Santa basin). This task will be
IRD-WB Contract 7148343 3 Final Report, October, 2009

concluded with the drafting of a technical report describing the model chosen, the range of appropriate parameterizations, and on the data needed to implement the selected model in the WEAP application (Water Evaluation and Panning System). 1.3 - Task 3: Data acquisition for the Rio Santa, Rimac and Mantaro river basins in Peru In addition to glaciers and pramos, the river basins in Peru include other land units which influence the overall hydrologic response. In order to develop a tool to assess the hydrologic implications of climate change, the land units must also be characterized. As the investigated basins are not pristine, we have selected two other watersheds based on their importance to the Peruvian hydropower system. Data also needs to be gathered on the actual and potential infrastructure. Finally, as hydropower is not the only important use of water in Peruvian river basins, relevant data on other sectors could also be collected. In this task, the strategy will be to develop the most complete database for the Rio Santa, including spatial data on land units and water management infrastructure. A first attempt will be made to assess water demand in the various sectors in this basin so that the eventual utility of the tool could be to explore water management implications under a climate change and to propose potential adaptations in a preliminary fashion. However, the primary focus of this phase of work in the Rio Santa system will be on hydrologic change and its potential hydropower impacts. For the Rio Rimac and Rio Mantaro systems, database development will be more difficult. Local institutions, such as Sedapal and the hydropower utilities, will be requested to provide most of the data following the topology and guide provided by SEI for such tasks. The application of WEAP with glacier and pramos modules will serve to test and verify the main hydrologic and hydropower utility of the glacier and pramos models developed and parameterized for the Rio Santa. 1.4 - Task 4: Evaluation of climate change impacts on Andean hydrology This task will really begin the process of integrating WEAP into the Peruvian water management community by running the model under the climate change scenarios developed in Task 8. The major output of this task will be to characterize the hydrologic implications of climate change in the investigated basins. The implications of these changes on hydropower potential will also be assessed in the three basins with a first assessment of the broader water management implications of climate change being conducted in the Rio Santa system. 1.5 - Task 5: Documentation and Dissemination This task will include the organization of briefings on project activities and outputs for the World Bank in Washington, D.C. and for appropriate Peruvian institutions in Lima. A technical report on the application of the tool in the three basins and an assessment of the model results will also be produced and disseminated. This report will note the potential climate change impacts on the hydropower sector in Peru and will include recommendations on how the hydrologic model could be used and expanded to other sectors, in other basins in Peru and the wider Andean region. p.5.1 - Technical report on glacier and pramos model selection and parameterization p.5.2 - Reports on the application of the hydrologic model to the selected pilot watersheds p.5.3 - Final report a.5.4 - Presentations of the project and the results.
IRD-WB Contract 7148343 4 Final Report, October, 2009

PART 2 - COMPLETION OF THE ASSIGNED TASKS 2.1 - Task 1: Elaboration of selection criteria for representations of tropical glaciers and high elevation wetlands This task was performed as envisaged initially (see Table 1). During the meeting in Lima at the university La Molina from September 25 to 27, 2008, Wilson Suarez and Thomas Condom presented various approaches for glaciers modelling. Appendix 1 Technical Report on glacier and high elevation wetlands model selection and parameterization begins to present in detail several kinds of glacier modelling. Table 2.1 presents the principal selection criteria of glacier modelling. According to the basin data availability, we choose the degree-day model for the glacier representation.

Characteristics
Short description

Energy Balance
Model based on the study of the exchange of energy between the surface glacier and the atmosphere

Degree_day, Index
Starts by a similar energy balance concept, but considers that all the physical processes are summarized in the temperature (the T is a consequence and not a cause) Simple No Intermediate - high 2 or 3 3: - Precipitation - Evaporation - Temperature

Hybrid (Balance+ degree-day)

Similar to the degreeday, but to improve its efficiency it uses the albedo, radiation, etc. These variables are added one by one.

Complexity Represents physical processes Efficiency of the model Number of parameters Input variables for the whole model

High Yes High 6 to 9 More than 6: - Incident radiation - Diffuse radiation - Liquid and solid precipitation - Humidity - Long wave radiation (incident and reflected) - Short wave radiation (incident and reflected) etc. Complex (generally grid) Its efficiency : physical process representation Needs too much information (sometimes non- inexistent) Probably Santa Hook, 2005; Favier, 2004; Juen, 2006

Intermediate Partially Intermediate - high 2 to 5 Depending on the complexity: - Precipitation - Evaporation - Temperature - Albedo - Radiation

Level of spacialization Advantages Disadvantages

Global or semi distributed Few parameters Few input variables Does not explain physical processes Santa, Rimac, Mantaro Hook, 2005; Schaefli and all, 2005; Martinec and Rango, 1986

Semi distributed, global or grid Few parameters Few input variables Explains the physical processes partially Santa Hook, 2005; Klok and all, 2001; Lang, 1990; Zhang and all, 2007

Possible application Recommended Bibliography

Table 2.1. Principal selection criteria of glacier modelling.

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Final Report, October, 2009

2.2 - Task 2: Evaluation and choice of glacier and high elevation wetlands models Since the meeting with Marisa Escobar and David Purkey in September 2008 at Lima, we worked in close collaboration with SEI to propose and evaluate a conceptual modelling of mountain basins partially covered with glaciers. Also, we produced several versions of a working paper titled An Approach for Modelling the Hydrologic Role of Glaciers in WEAP. The first proposal was sent to the World Bank on October 30, 2008. The last proposal from January 30, 2009 is presented as an appendix to the first report (Appendix 1). The document Construccin del Modelo WEAP del Ro Santa from November, 2008 presents, for the Santa Basin, the following: (1) data collection; (2) river basin characterization; (3) recognition visit (September 21-24, 2008); (4) climate data process; (5) demands estimation; (6) first model calibration for sub basins without glaciers (cf. www.mpl.ird.fr/divha/aguandes/peru/doc/Avance_RioSanta_WEAP-200811.pdf). From January to February 2009, we took an active part in the equations checking of the glaciers model within WEAP and in the calibration of this model for the Artesn glacier in the Rio Santa basin. From February to April 2009, we worked closely with SEI-US, leader on this task, in order to calibrate and validate a complete model for the Santa river basin. This accurate modelling strategy caused an increase of the Task 2 duration. Results from the final calibration-validation of the Rio Santa model are presented in detail in Appendix 3. Given the importance of the simulated flows at La Balsa in terms of assessing potential climate change impacts to the hydroelectric power station of Caon del Pato, the performance of the Rio Santa WEAP application at that point on the river is particularly satisfactory (Figure 2.1).

Figure 2.1. Correspondence between simulated (continuous think line) and observed (discontinuous thick line) stream flow at Balsa gauge station between Sep 1969 Aug 1997.

As simulated streamflow represents the combined contribution of runoff from both glaciated and non-glaciated portions of a watershed, the simulated glacier area evolution results were also evaluated and found satisfactory. Observations suggest that the initial glaciated area in this watershed, 507 km2 in 1970, was reduced to 387 km2 in 1999 (Table 2.2). This trend was well captured by the model. Comparison to observed glacier areas from 1987 and 1999 indicates a good correspondence with simulated areas (Figure 2.2; Table 2.2). In the Rio Santa watershed, the calibration of larger glaciers is better than the calibration of smaller glaciers, likely because small glaciers are more likely to be dominated by unique conditions that are not well captured by either the glacier module itself or the regional parameterization that was developed for the Rio Santa watershed (Appendix 3).
IRD-WB Contract 7148343 6 Final Report, October, 2009

Table 2.2. Simulated and observed data of glaciers evolution between 1970 and 1999.

Figure 2.2. Scatter plot graph with observed versus simulated glacier areas for the two periods (1987 and 1998).

It should be pointed out that the results in Figures 2.1 and 2.2 were achieved using a single set of parameter values for both the rainfall-runoff and glacier routines in WEAP. A more refined calibration could be achieved if an effort was made to calibrate each glacier and sub-watershed in the Rio Santa separately, although care would need to be taken to develop a spatially reasonable set of parameters (SEI final report, sep. 2009). From April to August 2009, IRD led the effort to develop the Rio Mantaro and Rio Rimac WEAP applications. As there is a major water transfer from the Rio Mantaro to the Rio Rimac watershed, it was decided that both rivers should be implemented in a single WEAP application. The Rimac River was modelled to the point of diversion to the Lima water system, and the Mantaro River was modelled down to the proposed La Guitarra hydropower facility. We worked closely with SEI in order to calibrate and validate this complex application. We present this work in PART 3 MODELLING THE RIMAC-MANTARO SYSTEM. Note, the results of the glacier area evolution simulation in the Rio Mantaro/Rio Rimac system were satisfactory. Although extensive pramos landscapes are not present in the three pilot watersheds in Peru, IRD attempted to parameterize existing rainfall-runoff models in a manner that could capture the unique nature of hydrologic processes in watersheds dominated by pramos. We used data of a little watershed near Quito in Ecuador, with 90% of pramos. The existing WEAP rainfall-runoff model (Soil Moisture Model) could be calibrated. We also calibrated the GR2M, monthly two parameter rainfall-runoff model of Gnie Rural (Mouelhi et al., 2006). We used these calibrations and the GR2M codification within WEAP as examples during the courses WEAP and Climate Change (VIII Encuentro Internacional GTNH PHI-UNESCO, Sep. 18-23, 2009, Quito).
IRD-WB Contract 7148343 7 Final Report, October, 2009

2.3 - Task 3: Data acquisition for the Rio Santa, Rimac and Mantaro river basins in Peru The data acquisition is a very sensitive point of our work because the necessary data is dispersed across different institutions and is submitted to some restrictions and limited access (public and private institutions). We have established with SEI-US a list of the required information for the WEAP modelling (see Appendix 1., www.mpl.ird.fr/divha/aguandes/peru/doc/Avance_RioSanta_WEAP-2008-11.pdf) and for the glaciers models calibration. Initially we asked for support from the ministry of energy and mines of Peru (MINEM). We obtained recommendation letters to Duke Energy, Electroper, EDEGEL and the Electric Operation Committee (COES). We have contacted the following persons: - ANA / INRENA Ing. Carlos Pagador, Intendente de aguas Ing. Aldrin Contreras, Responsable del area hidrolgica Ing. Marco Zapata, Director de la unidad de glaciologa Ing. Ing. Ing. Ing. Julio Ordoez, Director de Hidrologa Hctor Vera, Hidrologa Oscar Felipe, Direccin de hidrologa Waldo Lavado, Direccin de hidrologa

- SENAMHI

- IRD - Duke Energy

Dr. Robert Gallaire, Responsable GREATICE Per Ing. Carlos Glvez, Ing. de produccin Ing. Julio Velsquez, Sub-gerente comercial Ing. Abel Rodrguez, Jefe hidrolgica de la Central Huallanca Ing. Ing. Ing. Ing. Ing. Ing. Ing. Ing. Carlos Rosas, Sub gerente de Comercializacin Miguel Suarez, Centro de control y operaciones Eduardo Ibarra, Coordinador Jhony Huaman, Coordinador Guillermo Romero, Gerente de proyectos Jos Barbe, Gerente de produccin Jaime Huaman, Responsable del rea hidrolgica Juan Villegas, responsable del rea de Lagunas

- EDEGEL

- Electroperu

In addition to the data acquisition, an important treatment work was carried out to constitute time operational databases for the hydro-meteorological data (Hydraccess). Furthermore, an important project to compile geographic information was completed, including the processing of satellite images to reconstitute glaciers extensions and the spatialization of climate data. This work is presented in detail within the Appendix 2 Technical report on data acquisition and pre-processing for the Rio Santa, Rimac and Mantaro river basins in Peru - Suarez W., Pouget J.C., Condom T., Le Goulven P. September 2009. Tables 2.3, 2.4, and 2.5 present the collected and processed data for Santa, Rimac and Mantaro river basins.

IRD-WB Contract 7148343

Final Report, October, 2009

Datos Requeridos para Alimentar el Modelo Datos de Entrada Demandas o Cobertura de vegetacin

Prioridad

Santa

Fuente

1 1 1 1 1 1 32 estaciones 7 estaciones 6 estaciones 5 estaciones Poblacin Urb./rural

UNALM IRD, INRENA, DUKE IRD, INRENA, DUKE IRD, INRENA, DUKE IRD, INRENA, DUKE INEI (pagina WEB)

o Precipitacin (series de datos histricas, i.e. promedio mensual en cada ao del periodo de modelacin) o Temperatura (series de datos histricas, i.e. promedio mensual en cada ao del periodo de modelacin) o Humedad modelacin) o o Relativa (promedio mensual del periodo de

Viento (promedio mensual del periodo de modelacin) Numero de usuarios

Datos de Entrada Suministro y Recursos Reservorios/represas 1 4 lagunas DUKE

Datos fsicos: o o o o o Capacidad de almacenamiento Volumen inicial Curva de volumen/elevacin Evaporacin Perdidas a agua subterrnea 4 lagunas 4 lagunas 4 lagunas DUKE DUKE DUKE

Datos de operacin o o o o o o o o Mximo nivel de conservacin Mximo nivel de seguridad Mximo nivel inactivo Capacidad hidroelctrica Mnimo caudal de turbina Mximo cauda de turbina Cabeza hidrulica Factor de Planta Eficiencia Requerimientos de caudales mnimos 2 1 Huallanca Huallanca Huallanca Huallanca Huallanca Huallanca Huallanca Huallanca Huallanca Huallanca COES COES COES COES COES COES COES COES COES COES

Datos para Calibracin del Modelo o SIG O Imgenes glaciares 2006-Aster 2003-SPOT5 2000Landsat5 1987Landsat5 1970-Carta Nacional Ros Series de tiempo de caudales 1 25 estaciones IRD, INRENA, DUKE IRD SENAMHI IRD SENAMHI SENAMHI SENAMHI

Table 2.3. Collected and processed data for the Santa river basin. IRD-WB Contract 7148343 9 Final Report, October, 2009

Datos Requeridos para Alimentar el Modelo Datos de Entrada Demandas o Cobertura de vegetacin

Prioridad

Rmac

Fuente

1 1 1 1 1 1

1 carta 24 estaciones 5 estaciones 5 estaciones por determinar Poblacin Urb./rural

INADE SENAMHI, EDEGEL SENAMHI, EDEGEL

o Precipitacin (series de datos histricas, i.e. promedio mensual en cada ao del periodo de modelacin) o Temperatura (series de datos histricas, i.e. promedio mensual en cada ao del periodo de modelacin) o o o Humedad Relativa (promedio mensual del periodo de modelacin) Viento (promedio mensual del periodo de modelacin) Numero de usuarios

SENAMHI, EDEGEL Censo nacional.

Datos de Entrada Suministro y Recursos Reservorios/represas 1 15 lagunas y presas EDEGEL

Datos fsicos: o o o o o Capacidad de almacenamiento Volumen inicial Curva de volumen/elevacin Evaporacin Perdidas a agua subterrnea 1 laguna 1 laguna 15 lagunas 15 lagunas EDEGEL EDEGEL EDEGEL EDEGEL EDEGEL

Datos de operacin o o o o o o o o Mximo nivel de conservacin Mximo nivel de seguridad Mximo nivel inactivo Capacidad hidroelctrica Mnimo caudal de turbina Mximo cauda de turbina Cabeza hidrulica Factor de Planta Eficiencia Requerimientos de caudales mnimos 2 1 6 centrales 6 centrales 6 centrales 6 centrales 6 centrales 6 centrales 6 centrales 6 centrales 6 centrales 6 centrales COES COES COES COES COES COES COES COES COES COES

Datos para Calibracin del Modelo o SIG Imgenes glaciares 2008Landsat5 1998Landsat5 1988Landsat5 1980Landsat2 1970-Carta Nacional Ros Series de tiempo de caudales 1 8 estac. IRD INPE INPE INPEMaryland INPE

Table 2.4. Collected and processed data for the Rimac river basin IRD-WB Contract 7148343 10 Final Report, October, 2009

Datos Requeridos para Alimentar el Modelo Datos de Entrada Demandas o Cobertura de vegetacin

Prioridad

Mantaro

Fuente

1 1 1 1 1 1 172 estaciones Evaluacion Evaluacion Evaluacion Poblacin Urb./rural SENAMHI, ELECTROPERU SENAMHI, ELECTROPERU SENAMHI, ELECTROPERU SENAMHI, ELECTROPERU Senso nacional

o Precipitacin (series de datos histricas, i.e. promedio mensual en cada ao del periodo de modelacin) o Temperatura (series de datos histricas, i.e. promedio mensual en cada ao del periodo de modelacin) o o o Humedad Relativa (promedio mensual del periodo de modelacin) Viento (promedio mensual del periodo de modelacin) Numero de usuarios

Datos de Entrada Suministro y Recursos Reservorios/represas 1 21 constr.28 proyecto Electroperu COES

Datos fsicos: o o o o o Capacidad de almacenamiento Volumen inicial Curva de volumen/elevacin Evaporacin Perdidas a agua subterrnea 19 lagunas y presas 19 lagunas y presas 19 lagunas y presas Electroperu COES Electroperu COES Electroperu COES

Datos de operacin o o o o o o o o Mximo nivel de conservacin Mximo nivel de seguridad Mximo nivel inactivo Capacidad hidroelctrica Mnimo caudal de turbina Mximo cauda de turbina Cabeza hidrulica Factor de Planta Eficiencia Requerimientos de caudales mnimos 2 1 3 centrales 3 centrales 3 centrales 3 centrales 3 centrales 3 centrales 3 centrales 3 centrales 3 centrales 3 centrales COES COES COES COES COES COES COES COES COES COES

Datos para Calibracin del Modelo o SIG Imagenes glaciares 2008Landsat5 1998Landsat5 1988Landsat5 1980Landsat2 1970-Carta Nacional Series de tiempo de caudales 1 20 estaciones IRD INPE INPE INPEMarilland INPE

Table 2.5. Collected and processed data for the Mantaro river basin

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11

Final Report, October, 2009

2.4 - Task 4: Evaluation of climate change impacts on Andean hydrology Due to delays encountered by the project partners charged with producing future climate projections, we could not run the elaborated models for future simulations. In connection with SEI-US, we took the lead in developing the models of the Rimac and Mantaro river basins. Although it was not possible to perform detailed climate change analysis during the period of project implementation, SEI performed a preliminary exercise using stylized climate projections derived from available datasets. Section 3 of the SEI final report describes the results of this preliminary assessment which was carried out using the Rio Santa WEAP application and provided insight into how the types of analysis of the potential impacts of climate change in the region can be supported using the WEAP software enhanced to represent unique features of Andean hydrology. 2.5 - Task 5: Documentation and Dissemination We organized several presentations: projects management unit of Electroperu (July, 2008), management unit of EDEGEL (July, 2008), production unit of Duke Energy (July, 2008), production unit of Electroperu (Enero, 2008), etc. Important steps of the dissemination were: - The mission organized by IRD in the Santa river basin, September 21-24, 2008, with the participation of Adriana Valencia, World Bank; Marisa Escobar, SEI-US; Cayo Ramos, Universidad La Molina; Thomas Condom, Jean-Christophe Pouget, and Wilson Suarez, IRD, as well as with visits to the water collecting unit of the CHAVIMOCHIC irrigation project; hydro power unit of Caon del Pato with the Duke Energy staff; and several characteristic parts of the river basin with notably regulated lakes downstream of glaciers (see www.mpl.ird.fr/divha/aguandes/peru/santa/mision-2008-09/); - The training course Sistema de Evaluacin y Planeacin de Agua - Una Herramienta para el Anlisis de Sostenibilidad del Agua, Universidad La Molina Lima, September 25-27, 2008, co-organized by IRD, SEI-US and Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina, with 45 participants from public and private institutions related to water resources management in Peru, notably from SENAMHI (two persons), Electroperu (three persons), INRENA (four persons), DUKE Energy (one person), EDEGEL (one person), CHAVIMOCHIC (one person), Ministerio del Medio Ambiente (one person). The use of the WEAP Santa river basin model has been used for several presentations: Apoyo a la Gestin de los Recursos Hdricos Introduccin a la Herramienta WEAP., J.C. Pouget, Universidad Nacional de San Agustn de Arequipa, 28 y 29 Septiembre, 2008 (ver www.mpl.ird.fr/divha/aguandes/peru/arequipa/misionJCP-UNSA-Arequipa-2008-09-29.pdf) Curso-Taller IRD, EPN, FONAG, Sistema de Apoyo a la Planificacin de los Recursos Hdricos - Capacitacin Basica a la Herramienta WEAP, J.C. Pouget, Escuela Politcnica Nacional de Quito, Febrero 19 y 20, 2009 Presentacin al 1er Congreso Nacional del Agua de Peru Variaciones glaciares y disponibilidad del agua en la Cordillera Blanca del Per desde hace 40 aos -, T. Condom, Universidad Nacional La Molina, Lima, Marzo 19 al 21, 2009 VIII Encuentro Internacional de Investigadores del Grupo de Trabajo Nieves y Hielos (GTNH) de Amrica Latina del PHI-UNESCO, Curso taller de Hidro glaciologa - WEAP y el Cambio Climtico, Organizadores: B. Cceres,
12 Final Report, October, 2009

IRD-WB Contract 7148343

M. Villacis, B. Francou, J.C. Pouget, E. Ramirez, 18-23 septiembre 2009, Hotel Mercure, Quito Ecuador - Modelacin hidroglaciolgica orientada a la gestin de cuencas hidrogrficas con cobertura parcialmente glaciar. Expositores: Thomas Condom (IRD, Peru), Edson Ramrez (UMSA, Bolivia) - Ejemplos y ejercicios de calibracin en Ecuador y Per - Adaptacin y Construccin de nuevos mdulos en WEAP, Expositores: J.C. Pouget (IRD, Ecuador), David Purkey (SEI, USA). Taller internacional sobre cambio climtico en los Andes - Estado del conocimiento y enfoques para el futuro - Lima 24 - 26 septiembre 2009 MINAM CAN - IRD - Cooperacin regional Francia - Lugar: Sede CAN, Lima Cambios climticos y recursos agua de origen glaciar: ejemplos tomados en la Cordillera Real de Bolivia y en la Cordillera Blanca del Per. Expositores: Edson Ramrez (UMSA, Bolivia), Thomas Condom (IRD, Peru) - El Cambio climtico, la regresin de los glaciares y la definicin de un nuevo manejo del agua en las cuencas. Expositor: David Purkey (SEI, USA)

Beyond this final report, the most important documentation produced during this study is the manuscript for scientific publication entitled Modelling the Hydrologic Role of Glaciers within a Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP): A case study in the Rio Santa watershed (Peru), which was submitted to peer-reviewed Journal of Hydrology (see Appendix 3). SEI and IRD intend to revise this article, as needed, until it is published in a peer-reviewed journal. The article does not include, however, any statement on potential climate change impacts on the hydropower sector in Peru due to delays encountered by the project partners charged with producing future climate projections. While it was anticipated that these projections would be available prior to the end of the current project in July 2009, this did not happen. Such analysis would certainly constitute suitable material for drafting a subsequent journal article. We can also note the creation of the Santa, Rimac and Mantaro river basins presentation with interactive maps from the site www.mpl.ird.fr/divha/aguandes/. These applications were developed with Google Maps technology and optimized with Firefox version 3. Figure 2.3 presents the interactive map of the Santa river basin, which permits access to data on the following: glaciers extensions, rainfall and hydrometric stations, irrigation areas, hydro power units, etc.

Figure 2.3. Santa river basin www.mpl.ird.fr/divha/aguandes/ IRD-WB Contract 7148343 13 Final Report, October, 2009

PART 3 - MODELLING THE RIMAC-MANTARO SYSTEM In close collaboration with SEI, IRD took the lead in developing the models of the Rimac and Mantaro river basins. As there is a major water transfer from the Rio Mantaro to the Rio Rimac watershed, it was decided that both rivers should be implemented in a single WEAP application. The Rimac basin river was modelled to the point of diversion to the Lima water system and the Mantaro basin river was modelled down to the proposed La Guitarra hydropower facility. 3.1 Study area data The description of the study area and the pre-processing data of this complex system were presented within the Technical Report on data acquisition and pre-processing for the Rio Santa, Rimac and Mantaro river basins in Peru (Appendix 2). Figure 3.1 presents the rainfall areas and the location of data stations.

Figure 3.1. Map of rainfall areas and location of data stations of the Rimac and Mantaro river basins.

The optimal period of simulation is between September 1966 and August 1996 (Appendix 2). We considered: (1) a calibration period between September 1970 and August 1981; 4 years, between 1966 and 1970, used to stabilize the model; (2) a validation period between September 1981 and August 1996.
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As for the temperature and humidity data, only one good quality set of long and continuous time-series data exists, collected from the Cercapuquio station (12.422S, 75.417W). Continuous temperature data for each catchment was obtained using a temperature gradient of 0.6C/100m applied to the temperature observed at Cercapuquio. For the humidity and wind speed, we assumed that the long-term monthly time series at Cercapuquio applied to all catchments. 3.2 Proposed modelling and parameters The combined Rimac-Mantaro WEAP application (Figure 3.2) includes 38 WEAP reservoir objects, suggesting a much more significant level of hydraulic manipulation than that which exists in the Rio Santa system where extensive glaciers provide much of the water storage service. Twenty-two WEAP demand sites represent the urban and rural water demands in individual provinces, along with 276 (102 for Rimac and 174 for Mantaro) WEAP catchment objects that are used to simulate rainfall-runoff process. Five WEAP diversion objects and nine WEAP run of river hydropower objects are used to represent the hydropower production system and 28 WEAP streamflow gauge objects were available for calibration-validation of the hydrologic routines.

Figure 3.2. Schematic of the Rimac and Mantaro system within WEAP.

The Rio Mantaro and Rio Rimac watersheds are more complex than the Rio Santa, with many more subwatersheds and a higher level of hydraulic manipulation accomplished via reservoir storage and release (see Section 3.5). As such, the final calibration-validation of the Rio Mantaro/Rio Rimac model focused on obtaining a set of parameters to reasonably represent the hydrology of the mainstream Mantaro and Rimac rivers. Given that the rivers are located in dissimilar watersheds (the Mantaro is in the Amazon Basin, the Rimac drains to the Pacific), the project team, after a hundred simulations, did not attempt to define a uniform set of parameters. Instead, parameter values for each watershed were adjusted separately to represent the different physical processes of each basin, although each basin arrived at an internally uniform set of parameters, presented in Table 3.1.

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Land use parameters (part without glacier) Parameter unit Crop coefficient Root zone capacity mm Root zone conductivity Cultivos mm/month others mm/month Deep water capacity mm Deep water conductivity mm/month Runoff resistance factor Cultivos Matorral Planicie costera Tundra Flow direction % horizontal Initial storage fractions z1 % z2 % Glacier parameters Parameter unit T0 C asnow mm.month-1.C-1 aice mm.month-1.C-1

Rimac 0.9 425 840 600 7500 800 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.2 30 10 Rimac 1.7 300 600

Mantaro 1.2 425 420 300 300 300 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.2 30 30 Mantaro 1.7 300 600

Table 3.1. Land use parameter values for the non glacial part and parameter values for the glacier module

Although the Rio Mantaro modelling domain extends to the location of the projected hydropower facility at La Guitarra, as there are no historical streamflow records at that site model calibration could not be attained at this most downstream point. Similarly, while the Rio Rimac modelling domain extends to the point of water diversion to the city of Lima, the most downstream gauge in the system was located upstream, once again limiting the ability to calibrate the model at this key point of management interest. Detailed in Section 3.3, the assessment of model performance for the calibration period 1970-1981 and validation period 1981-1996 was done at several gauge stations (19 stations for Mantaro, six stations for Rimac). But to retain the parameters presented in Table 3.1, the focus was notably on the bigger downstream stations. For the Rio Mantaro, working upstream from La Guitarra, these stations include Pongor; Mejorada; Moya; Puente Stuart; Puente Chulec; and Upamayo. For the Rio Rimac, working upstream from the Lima diversion, the main gauging stations include Chosica and Surco. Table 3.1 shows that the Runoff resistance factor and the Root zone conductivity parameters were defined considering the land cover (Cultivos, Matorral, Planicie costera, Tundra). 3.3 Calibration and validation streamflows results Efficiency criterions In order to test the validity of the different simulations scenarios and to calibrate the different parameters values, we use three statistics: (a) the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE); (b) the BIAS; and (c) the Nash-Sutcliffe parameter (Nash and Sutcliffe, 1970).

100 RMSE = Qo

n i =1

(Qs ,i Qo ,i ) 2 n
(a)

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BIAS = 100[(Q s Q o ) / Q o ]
n

(b)

E f = 1

(Q
i =1 n i =1

s ,i

Qo ,i ) 2 Qo ) 2
(c)

(Q

o ,i

Where Qs,i and Qo,i are simulated and observed outflow data for each time step i. For the calibration period 1970-1981, n corresponds to a maximum value of 144. For the validation period 1981-1996, n corresponds to a maximum value of 196. Calibration and validation results Calibration and validation statistics for all stations are presented in Table 3.2 for the Rio Mantaro and Table 3.4 for the Rio Rimac, indicating a satisfactory performance of the model for the bigger downstream stations. The stations are classified from the biggest watershed to the smallest one. For the calibration and the validation period and for each station, the following information is presented: RMSE, BIAS, Ef: the efficiency criterions; n: the time steps number of monthly observed flows; Qo m3/s: the corresponding observed flow average.
Calibration period 1970-1981 station Pongor Mejorada Puente Stuart Puente Chulec Moya Upamayo Chinchi Angasmayo Quillon Yanacocha Pachacayo Huapa Santa Elena Huari Cochas Tunel Yulapuquio Canipaco Piascocha Casaracra n 90 90 107 91 119 124 130 132 122 128 131 131 126 131 132 127 119 132 122 Qo m /s 310.2 176.0 91.8 57.5 24.5 25.9 15.7 17.5 11.3 6.9 10.7 10.7 8.4 6.8 6.1 5.8 3.8 1.8 1.8
3

Validation period 1981-1996 Ef 0.74 0.81 0.81 0.73 0.62 0.65 0.68 0.77 0.36 0.60 0.68 0.59 0.70 0.36 0.48 0.55 0.17 0.07 n 39 158 142 113 115 161 151 159 99 174 164 174 174 156 172 159 177 156 Qo m3/s 375.2 170.6 81.9 50.4 23.7 23.5 17.7 12.2 8.2 6.1 9.4 11.0 10.7 6.1 2.3 4.9 4.2 1.5 2.3 RMSE 44.57 48.14 72.33 51.67 65.82 84.65 86.15 84.62 128.62 216.42 107.50 54.47 115.89 131.36 79.91 82.41 163.14 225.38 79.91 BIAS 5% 36% 50% 30% 40% 41% -8% 67% 98% 189% 82% 3% -39% 97% 33% 24% -10% 181% 33% Ef 0.68 0.65 -0.25 -0.03 0.31 0.06 0.55 0.46 -0.55 -1.16 -0.26 0.72 0.33 -0.69 0.52 0.47 0.31 -2.94 0.52

RMSE 53.76 37.91 37.16 37.40 57.52 45.72 61.03 52.95 76.59 149.65 61.60 59.35 78.52 54.37 73.52 83.14 88.02 95.94 82.99

BIAS -14% 16% 10% 5% 14% 14% -5% 10% 53% -3% 8% -17% -11% 11% -13% -13% 62% 49%

130% -0.53 173

Table 3.2. Criteria for the calibration and validation periods for the Mantaro sub-watersheds.

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Table 3.2 shows that, for the Mantaro calibration, almost 70% of the stations (13 stations / 19) have a BIAS less than 15% and with an efficiency (Ef Nash-Sutcliffe) greater than 0.5; for the validation, almost 60% of the stations (11 stations / 19) have a BIAS less than 40% and with an efficiency greater than 0.3. Figure 3.3 presents the seasonal fluctuations during the calibration period of observed and simulated stream flows for the bigger downstream stations of Mantaro.

Figure 3.3. Monthly averages during the calibration period (1970-1981) of observed and simulated stream flows for the Mantaro river basin.

Figure 3.4. Observed and simulated stream flows at Pongor station in Mantaro River system. IRD-WB Contract 7148343 18 Final Report, October, 2009

Figures 3.4 and 3.5 present the observed and simulated stream flows of the Pongor and Mejorada stations.

Figure 3.5. Observed and simulated stream flows at Mejorada station in Mantaro River system.

Table 3.3 shows that, for the Rimac calibration, 50% of the stations (3 stations / 6) have a BIAS less than 25% and with an efficiency (Ef Nash-Sutcliffe) greater than 0.6; for the validation, four stations have a BIAS less than 20%, but only two stations present an efficiency greater than 0.4.
Calibration period 1970-1981 station Chosica Surco Tamboraque San Mateo Sheque Rio Blanco n 132 132 110 130 132 131 Qo m3/s 28.6 17.0 14.3 12.7 11.5 3.3 RMSE 36.26 41.29 49.93 51.37 45.43 61.87 BIAS -3% -24% -34% Ef 0.62 0.66 0.46 Validation period 1981-1996 n 180 124 180 99 Qo m3/s 27.7 16.0 14.0 13.1 11.2 3.0 RMSE 61.18 42.16 51.29 48.06 51.74 91.77 BIAS 17% -11% -11% -35% -16% 61% Ef -0.16 0.60 0.44 -0.02 -0.54 0.10

-42% -0.10

-32% -0.04 180 21% 0.63 64

Table 3.3. Criteria for the calibration and validation periods for the Rimac sub-watersheds.

Figure 3.6 presents the seasonal fluctuations during the calibration period of observed and simulated stream flows at Chosica and Surco stations. All observed and simulated stream flows are presented in Figures 3.7 and 3.8 for the Chosica and Surco stations.

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Figure 3.6. Monthly averages during the calibration period (1970-1981) of observed and simulated stream flows for the Rimac river basin.

Figure 3.7. Observed and simulated stream flows at Chosica station in Rimac River basin.

Figure 3.8. Observed and simulated stream flows at Surco station in Rimac River basin.

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3.4 Simulation of the glacier area evolution since the 70s The results of the glacier area evolution simulation in the Rimac-Mantaro system were satisfactory (see glacier parameters in Table 3.1). The observed initial glacier area of these watersheds in 1970 was 113 km2, which decreased to roughly 40 km2 in 1997 (Table 3.4). This trend was well captured by the model when comparing simulated and observed glaciated areas at discrete times during the calibration-validation period (Table 3.4 and Figure 5). In contrast to the results obtained in the Rio Santa, in the Rimac-Mantaro system there is no apparent performance trend of the glacier module as a function of the extent of individual glacier extent. Note, however, that the glaciers in the Rio Mantaro and Rio Rimac watersheds are much smaller than those of the Rio Santa.

Azu11 Carh10 Hua09 Huap08 Huay10 Mej07 Pte.St08 Pte.chu09 Sma08 Tem10 Upa10 Yurac10

Medido (Km) 1970 1988 14.42 11.49 4.32 2.77 19.73 7.58 3.66 0 3.13 1.53 12.84 6.56 17.55 5.74 12.16 2.84 6.25 0.88 4.79 3.75 4.63 0 9.67 4.38

1997 10.16 2.2 6.38 0 1.21 5.25 4.33 1.9 0.46 3.04 0 3.87

Simulado (KM2) 1988 1996 9.1 7.7 0.0 0.0 11.3 9.7 0.0 0.0 1.8 1.8 6.2 5.3 7.5 5.8 0.0 0.0 3.2 2.3 3.5 3.3 0.0 0.0 5.0 3.7

Table 3.4. Simulated and observed data of glaciers evolution between 1970 and 1997.

Figure 3.9. Scatter plot graph with observed versus simulated glacier areas for the two periods (1987 and 1996). IRD-WB Contract 7148343 21 Final Report, October, 2009

3.5 Conclusions A double validation of the model was done by comparing (1) observed and simulated streamflows at 25 control points in the Rimac-Mantaro system; (2) the glacier area calculated by the model and that observed with Landsat images for two periods (1988 and 1997). This validation gave reasonable results. But the Rimac-Mantaro system future simulations have to be able to reproduce the reservoirs operation management, 16 reservoirs operational since 1995-2000, and 28 reservoirs planned for the future (Table 3.5).
nombre Upamayo Tablachaca Malpaso Huaylacancha Carhuacocha Tembladera Azulcocha Yuraccocha Vichecocha Nahuincocha Yanacoha-Palcn Huacracocha Hueghue Chilicocha Nahuincocha Balsacocha Yurajcocha Hulchicocha Coyllorcocha Antacocha Tunshu Norma Paucara Llacsa Parlona I Calzada Caullau Huarmicocha Luquina Habascocha Tipicocha Tranca Grande Paccha Lacsacocha Huacracocha-Huari Abascocha Inticojasa Ampacocha Tutayac II Aclacocha Huascacocha Yanacoha-Pampahua Tanserococha Tipicocha Turmanya Pajaco tipo represa represa represa laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada laguna regulada empresa Electroperu Electroperu Electroandes Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Electroperu Vol (MMC) 441 7 2.76 22.4 23.0 5.0 6.0 2.2 10.6 1.4 7.6 4.9 18.4 42.8 7.0 3.0 16.0 19.0 11.0 2.4 3.5 3.0 4.4 3.3 2.5 2.3 5.6 1.5 11.1 3.1 3.5 14.5 11.6 4.6 11.0 2.4 1.3 4.7 1.0 5.2 26.0 6.1 13.1 10.1 46.9 61.1 Inicio operacin 1973 1995 1995 1997 1997 1995 1995 1995 2000 2000 2000 1999 1999 1999 1999 1999 1999 estudio definitivo estudio definitivo estudio definitivo estudio factibilidad definitivo estudio factibilidad definitivo estudio factibilidad definitivo estudio factibilidad definitivo estudio factibilidad definitivo estudio factibilidad definitivo estudio definitivo estudio definitivo estudio definitivo estudio definitivo estudio definitivo estudio factibilidad definitivo estudio factibilidad definitivo estudio factibilidad definitivo estudio factibilidad definitivo estudio factibilidad definitivo estudio factibilidad definitivo estudio factibilidad definitivo estudio factibilidad definitivo estudio factibilidad definitivo estudio factibilidad estudio factibilidad estudio factibilidad estudio factibilidad

Table 3.5. Existing and projected reservoirs of the Mantaro river basin. IRD-WB Contract 7148343 22 Final Report, October, 2009

CONCLUSION AND PROSPECTS Understanding and modelling hydrology are crucial in Andean tropical mountains as part of efforts to plan and manage water resources. One of the main challenges in this region is to be able to simulate the hydrology with scarce availability of meteorological and hydrological data which has high spatial variability similar to the temperature and precipitation gradients observed in Andean mountains watersheds. Several assumptions need to be made and interpolation methods need to be implemented in order to obtain continuous climate time-series that can feed hydrologic models. The historical studies of IRD (Pouyaud et al., 2005; Suarez, 2007; Suarez et al., 2008) facilitated the data processing on the Santa river basin. For the Rimac and Mantaro river basins, database development was more difficult due to the system complexity and the lack of reference studies. For instance, we needed to process satellite images to reconstitute glacier extensions and land covers. One of the difficulties in constituting databases came from the data dispersion across the various institutions. It is worth reiterating that (1) certain institutions (unidad de glaciologa del ANA - ex- INRENA) and companies (Electroper) supporting this project have a data confidentiality commitment, in which the IRD guarantees data use only for the project and that this data cannot be transferred to another institution without their authorization; (2) within this cooperation framework, the different institutions supporting the project have access to the final technical report. The originality of this work rests on the successful linkage of a glacier evolution module based on the degree-day method to a WEAPs integrated rainfall-runoff/water resource systems modelling framework. A double validation of the model was done by comparing the glacier area calculated by the model and that observed with Landsat images for two periods (1987 and 1998) and observed and simulated streamflows at 16 control points in the Rio Santa watershed. Modelling the Rimac-Mantaro system, presented in this report, confirmed the effectiveness of the glacier evolution simulation (1988, 1996) and gave reasonable flow results for the downstream gauge stations. Although extensive pramos landscapes are not present in the three pilot watersheds in Peru, IRD and SEI attempted to parameterize existing rainfall-runoff models in a manner that could capture the unique nature of hydrologic processes in watersheds dominated by pramos. IRD used data of Antisana upstream watersheds near Quito in Ecuador, with more than 70% of pramos land cover (collaboration GreatIce IRD unit, EMAAP-Q, INAMHI). The existing WEAP rainfall-runoff model (Soil Moisture Model) and the GR2M, monthly two parameter rainfall-runoff model of Gnie Rural (Mouelhi et al., 2006) could be calibrated. As the World Bank supported Proyecto Regional Adaptacin Andina (PRAA) in Ecuador used Antisana watersheds as the pilot area, it seems reasonable to envisage an active collaboration. Due to delays encountered by the project partners charged with producing future climate projections, IRD could not run the elaborated models for future scenarios, in order to evaluate climate change impacts on Andean hydrology, corresponding to Task 4. Clearly the preliminary climate change analysis carried out by SEI based on the development of two stylized future climate projections is not sufficient. The WEAP applications developed under this project should be run using scientifically rigorous climate projections like the ones that are being developed by NCAR and PNNL. Developing the ability to simulate the impacts of a set of assumed future climate projections is an important step in creating the capacity for Andean water managers to plan for climate change.

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This is critical, for in addition to the hydrologic dimension of the model, the WEAP software provides the ability to represent and simulate different water uses and water system elements. Further steps into this modelling exercise should focus on detailing the implications of hydrologic change on water demands including (1) hydropower, (2) agriculture, and (3) ecosystem flow and the consequent economic implications. (1) For hydropower generation, in cooperation with Duke Energy, the operators of the Caon del Pato hydropower project, it was possible to assess the performance of the final WEAP Rio Santa application in terms of its utility in simulating the hydropower system. The production simulation for 1997-1998 gave a reasonable result. As such, no substantial effort could be made to verify the veracity of simulated hydropower operations in the Rimac-Mantaro system beyond a simple assessment that the numbers were realistic. As the World Bank supported Proyecto Regional Adaptacin Andina (PRAA) in Peru and uses the Mantaro river basin as one of its pilot areas, it seems reasonable to envisage the performance evaluation of the hydropower routines at some point in the future, depending on a collaborative relationship with the system operators. It is worth reiterating that the Mantaro system future simulations have to be able to reproduce the reservoirs operation management, 16 reservoirs operational since 1995-2000, and 28 reservoirs planned for the future. (2) For agriculture, it would be beneficial to refine the representation of agricultural water demands in these systems under different scenarios regarding the evolution of irrigated areas and the climate driven water demand associated with these changes. An IRD research project in Quito focuses on the competition between demands for drinking water and irrigation leading to significant transfers from Amazonian high-altitude watersheds with pramos. We propose an irrigation representation combining water rights practices and crops-soils water budget (www.mpl.ird.fr/divha/aguandes/ecuador/hoya-quito). (3) For ecosystem flow, it may be useful to begin to introduce this consideration into the analysis and to see how these targets might constrain system operations under alternative future climate projections. WEAP is being used extensively in this manner in numerous locations around the world. An IRD research project in Quito aims to define ecosystem flows for Andean mountains watersheds (CAUdales ECOlgicos, www.mpl.ird.fr/divha/aguandes/ecuador/papallacta/).

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REFERENCES Bahr, D. B., M. F. Meier, and S. D. Peckham. 1997. The physical basis for glacier volume-area scaling. Journal of Geophysical Research 102:20355-20362. Hock, R., 2005. "Glacier melt: a review of processes and their modelling." Progress in Physical Geography 29: 362-391. Mouelhi, S., Michel C., Perrin C., Andrassian V., 2006. Stepwise development of a two-parameter monthly water balance model, J. Hydrol., 318, 200-214, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.1006.1014 Nash, J.E., Sutcliffe, J.V., 1970. River flow forecasting through conceptual models. Part 1 A discussion of principles. Journal of hydrology, 27 (3). Pouyaud, B., M. Zapata, J. Yerren, J. Gomez, G. Rosas, W. Suarez and P. Ribstein, 2005. "Devenir des ressources en eau glaciaire de la Cordillre Blanche." Hydrological Sciences Journal 50: 999-1022. Suarez, W., 2007. "Le bassin versant du fleuve Santa (Andes du Prou) : dynamique des coulements en contexte glacio-pluvio-nival", Thse Universit Montpellier 2, (2007), 290 p. Suarez, W., P. Chevallier, B. Pouyaud, and P. Lopez. 2008. Modelling the water balance in the glacierized Paron Lake basin (White Cordillera, Peru). Hydrological Sciences 53. Yates, D., J. Sieber, D. Purkey, and A. Huber-Lee. 2005. WEAP21 - A demand-, priority-, and preference-driven water planning model Part 1: Model characteristics. Water International 30:487-500.

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LIST OF TABLES
Table 1 Work schedule, envisaged initially and performed..................................... 2 Table 2.1 Principal selection criteria of glacier modelling....................................... 5 Table 2.2. Simulated and observed data of glaciers evolution between 1970 and 1999.................................................................... 7 Table 2.3. Collected and processed data for the Santa river basin.......................... 9 Table 2.4. Collected and processed data for the Rimac river basin. .......................10 Table 2.5. Collected and processed data for the Mantaro river basin. ....................11 Table 3.1. Land uses parameters values for the non glacial part and parameters values for the glacier module .....................................16 Table 3.2. Criterions for the calibration and validation periods for the Mantaro and Rimac sub-watersheds ........................................17 Table 3.3. Criterions for the calibration and validation periods for the Rimac sub-watersheds ...........................................................19 Table 3.4. Simulated and observed data of glaciers evolution between 1970 and 1997...................................................................21 Table 3.5. Existing and projected reservoirs of the Mantaro river basin .................22

LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1.1. Map of study river basins location in Peru ........................................... 3 Figure 2.1. Correspondence between, simulated and observed stream flow at Balsa gauge station between Sep 1969 Aug 1997. ....................... 6
Figure 2.2. Scatter plot graph with observed versus simulated glacier areas for the two periods (1987 and 1998) ............................................................7

Figure 2.3. Santa river basin www.mpl.ird.fr/divha/aguandes/ ..........................13 Figure 3.1. Map of rainfall areas and location of data stations of the Rimac and Mantaro river basins...............................................................14 Figure 3.2. Schematic of the Rimac and Mantaro system within WEAP...................15 Figure 3.3. Monthly averages during the calibration period (1970-1981) of observed and simulated stream flows for the Mantaro river basin ....18 Figure 3.4. Observed and simulated stream flows at Pongor station in Mantaro River system ................................................................18 Figure 3.5. Observed and simulated stream flows at Mejorada station in Mantaro River system ................................................................19 Figure 3.6. Monthly averages during the calibration period (1970-1981) of observed and simulated stream flows for the Rimac river basin .......20 Figure 3.7. Observed and simulated stream flows at Chosica station in Rimac River basin......................................................................20 Figure 3.8. Observed and simulated stream flows at Surco station in Rimac River basin......................................................................20 Figure 3.9. Scatter plot graph with observed versus simulated glacier areas for the two periods (1987 and 1996). ..............................................21

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