5.0 Simulation of Reservoirs and Energy Production: Consolidated Report

ESTUDIO DE FACTIBILIDAD AMPLIACION DE LA
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EMPRESA DE GENERACIN ELECTRICA DE AREQUIPA S.A. - EGASA 125-A/E Study for the Technical Economic Feasibility of Molloco Hydroelectric Power Plant CONSOLIDATED REPORT
5.0
SIMULATION OF RESERVOIRS AND ENERGY PRODUCTION Investigations
5.1 Previous
The optimization studies of the scheme and design of the Molloco Project works are presented in Chapter 7 in the Chiquimo Association Report, 1986. The procedure applied and the main results obtained in such study are briefly described below.
The optimization of the useful volume of each one of the reservoirs was carried out by a simulation of the system of three reservoirs with different combinations of volumes. The regulated firm flow was determined in each case with persistence of 95%, the corresponding installable power and the producible energy in both power houses, upper and lower, for plant factors 0.65 and 0.50. In order to estimate the benefits of power and energy, alternative thermal plants of turbogas type were considered in groups of 25MW, and vapor type in groups of 50 MW, as well as alternative costs of fuel of 20 and 26 $US per barrel, and updating rates of 8, 10 and 12%. The energy benefits were calculated considering the firm energy only. The simulations were performed using a series of monthly average flows synthetically generated of 50 years length and for the following useful volumes Machucocha: 0 up to 100 3 3 Mm 3 , Molloco: 0 up to 150 Mm , Japo: 0 up to 60 Mm . The results showed that the most favorable action would be to make use of the maximum 3 verified volumes with a firm flow of 9.84 m /s. With regard to the selection of the capacity installed, a set of simulations was performed by variation of plant factors ranging from 0.4 to 0.7. For an updating rate of 10%, there was a minimum cost for a plant factor of 0.60 3 corresponding to a design flow of both plants of 16.4 m /s. The optimal dimensions of the conductors were determined considering different diameters and load losses. The final results in terms of useful volumes, operation levels and hydroenergetic parameters are shown in Chart 5.1 and Illustration 5.1.
CONSORCIO LAHMEYER AGUA Y ENERGIA TEGEPSA 5.1

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Chart 5.1: Parameters of the Molloco Scheme (Feasibility Study 1986)
Parmetro Parameter
Design D iseo NAMO
Reservoir Embalse
Machucocha
m snm m snm Mm
3
4664.5 4655.5 100
Molloco 4480 4456 150
Japo 4218 4197 60

Scheme Esquema Total
NAMI Volumen til

Parameter P armetro Design D iseo Useful volume
Superior m /s m n) MW #
3
Power Plants Centrales Upper Lower
Inferior 16.4 726 110 2
Total 16.4 2098 310 6
C audal diseo Design flow Design net head S alto neto diseo Installed power P otencia instalada Units (Pelton) U nidades (Pelto
16.4 1372 200 4
Producciones Monthly M ensuales E nero January F ebrero February M March arzo April A bril M May ayo June J unio July J ulio August A gosto September S etiembre October O ctubre November N oviembre December D iciembre
Productions GWh
GWh
Promedio 85.8 86.6 109.4 97.3 86.4 83.3 86.0 85.8 79.5 79.5 76.2 79.9
Superior Upper Average Firm
Firme 87.5 79.0 87.5 84.7 87.5 84.7 87.5 87.5 84.7 87.5 84.7 87.5 1030
Promed 51.9 54.5 64.6 54.5 47.5 45.2 46.5 46.3 43.0 42.9 41.2 43.5 582 60
Inferior Lower Average Firm
Firme 46.9 42.3 46.9 45.4 46.9 45.4 46.9 46.9 45.4 46.9 45.4 46.9 552
P romedio 137.7 141.1 174.0 151.8 133.9 128.5 132.5 132.1 122.5 122.4 117.4 123.4 1617 60
Esquema Scheme Average Firm
Firme 134.4 121.3 134.4 130.1 134.4 130.1 134.4 134.4 130.1 134.4 130.1 134.4 1583
A nual Annual Plant factor F actor planta
%%
1036 59
Illustration 5.1:
Molloco Generation Profiles (Feasibility Study 1986)
200 180 160 ) ) h W 140 G l 120 ( ua (

Promedio inferior Lower average
Upper average P romedio Superio Firm scheme Firme Esquema
GWh ns er e en 80 m a l
ry g ne 40 E Month
20 0 E ne Feb Mar Jan Feb Mar Apr Abr Jun Jul Aug Jul May May Jun Sep Oct Set Dec Oct Ago Nov Nov Dic 60
gy 100
Mes Month

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5.2
Regulation Plans and Scenario of Invetigation
The regulation plans of the Molloco basin were analyzed and evaluated in this study in a similar manner as the previous plans within the framework of several scenarios as defined below.
5.2.1 Development
Scheme
The current scheme modified by the Consultant covers the same reservoirs and regulation sites and two heads with power houses; the upper head power house has been located upstream. According to the new scheme, the use of the total available slope (about 2160 m) between the Japo reservoir and the Colca River Valley is as follows: Upper head : Japo reservoir - Llatica Power house at approx. 3190 masl Lower head : Llatica Soro Power House (Colca River) at approx. 2050 masl The corresponding gross heads result in approximately 1030 m and 1140 m for Llatica and Soro Power Plants respectively. Due to this modification, the current development scheme showed in Illustration 6.2 includes the following phases. Phase I: Machucocha Lake Reservoir Japo Reservoir Lower head with Soro Power House Phase II: Molloco Reservoir Upper head with Llatica Power House

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Illustration 5.2:
Schematic diagram of the Molloco hydroelectric usage
Etapa I Phase
4661 m
Laguna Machucocha Machucocha Lake

Derivac Palca Ro Pal River R o Llocacocha in ca
Diversion Llocacocha River

R o Huaytambo
Huaytambo River
Phase E tapa II II
Molloco
4480 m
E st. Maria Perez Maria Perez Station E st. La Calera La Calera Station
o r Sillque River
Ro Sillque
Molloc Rive
o Molloco R
Ataccomayo River Ro Ataccomayo
Etapa I Phase
Japo
4218 m
Phase Etapa II II
3190 m
3190 m
C Llatica HEPP .H. Llatica
Etapa I Phase
Soro
2050m
C.H. Soro
E st. Pallca Pallca Station
Colca River
Ro Colca
5.2.2 Definition of the scenarios Since the energy benefits will be mainly performed through the generation of firm energy and since the contributions vary significantly within the year and year by year (as shown in Illustrations 4.3 and 4.5), it is essential to develop the regulation of the basin to the maximum. The scenarios defined represent possible alternative modes or strategies of operation in order to verify the ability of the reservoirs for maximizing the regulated firm flow. In order to facilitate comparisons between the diverse scenarios, the dimensions established in the feasibility study were taken as base case and replied in Chart 6.1 regarding the operation/useful volume levels of the reservoirs and the design flow of the power plants.

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The analysis procedure has been defined in the following steps: 1. Verification of alternative operation levels (NAMO), useful volume and regulation capacity. 2. Verification of variants of design flow and capacity installed. 3. Verification of the generation statistics obtained with the base case. 4. Analysis and documentation of the characteristics of the electrical system. 5. Detailed simulation of the configuration elected. 6. Sensitivity analysis.
The results are submitted and will be discussed below from Section 1.6.4.
5.3 Methodology The evaluation procedure of the possible regulation plans involves the simulation of the operation of reservoirs and hydroelectric power plants with different volumes and capacities under the diverse hydrologic conditions in the series of contribution in the historical period 1965-2007.
5.3.1 Simulation
Model
A set of computational tools of the Consultant was applied for this purpose. The main model applied, APROS, is able to simulate the water balance and transit over several interconnected sections and bodies of water that may contain any combination of components, such as: Natural rivers and lakes, Water collection, Regulation reservoirs, Hydroelectric power plants, Channels and derivations through tunnels,
The water transit and management in every section or component is calculated according to the continuity principle over a common multi-annual period and with a discrete time interval: day, 10-days or month. Water Balance and Management The impounding operation is performed on the monthly values basis (or other established periods), applying the storage equation: Sm =S S = ( I
m-1
+ S -O
m
- L m ). t m

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Where: Sm Im O
m
= volume stored in the reservoir at the end of the m month (m = average flow to the reservoir during the m month (m
3
/s)
= average discharge flow of the reservoir during the m month (regulated flow 3 /s) plus discharge by the weir) (m = losses in the reservoir (m
3
Lm tm m
/s)
= length of the time interval of the month = month index
The net losses in the reservoir are calculated as: Lm Where: E

i
= (E i + E f ) / 2
= net evaporation at the beginning of the month (net evaporation = total evaporation minus precipitation on the reservoir) = net evaporation at the end of the month
Ef
For a determined reservoir volume, the corresponding level in the reservoir and its surface are determined through interpolation in the relations elevation-area-volume. The net losses in the reservoir are determined based on the evaporation rates at the beginning and at the end of every month. Power and Energy Calculation For the hydroelectric power plants, the power that may be generated is calculated according to the flow and head (reservoir level or head bed function) in each interval (month) over the simulation period by using the following formula: P where: P mt mg QT H = generation capacity (MW) = turbine efficiency (Q and H function) = generator efficiency = turbine flow (m = net head (m)
9.81 m t m
QT H
/s)
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5.3.2 Entrance
Data
The entrance data of the model for a typical application include:

The monthly series of contributions (historical-extended) A series or profile of monthly evaporation; The topography of the reservoir and the operation levels and rules; Seasonal demands: minimum/ecologic flow, main demands for agricultural purposes and/or drinkable water.
For a complex system containing various hydraulic works, the other components are added in a given case, for instance:

Regulation reservoirs or other water sources/contributions; Water pipes (tunnels and channels) with their respective capacities; The hydroelectric power plants where the generation characteristics are represented in form of power matrices for the possible combinations of turbine flow and hydraulic head.
Contribution Series The calculation and preparation of the series of monthly contribution in the reservoirs Machucocha, Molloco and Japo Lakes are described in Chapter 1.4. The series lists are presented in Appendix G . For the elected simulation period 1965-2007, the multi-annual averages of contribution series (prepared by HEC-4 model): Machucocha, Molloco and Japo are 0.86, 6.41 and 3 12.84 m /s, respectively. The monthly average statistics are shown in Chart 5.2. Chart
Month
5:2: Monthly Contribution Statistics in the Reservoirs

Laguna Machucocha Machucocha Lake Min. P Aver. rom. MMax. x. Mn 1.98 6.50 0.17 2.38 4.30 0.46 2.85 6.00 0.54 1.05 2.00 0.20 0.46 0.83 0.16 0.32 0.64 0.17 0.28 0.42 0.17 0.23 0.39 0.14 0.20 0.18 0.20 0.32
0.86 1.124 313 ( mm/ao)
(mm/year)
Mes E nero January F ebrero February M arzo March A bril April M ay May J unio June J ulio July A gosto August
Septemb. S etiembre October O ctubre November N oviembre DiDecember ciembre Pr Average omedio C oef. Var. Coef. Var. Runoff E scorren ta
PAver. rom. 12.29 21.55 23.17 7.46 3.03 1.77 1.46 1.33 1.17 1.11 1.43 2.06
6.41 1.269 300
Molloco Molloco Max. M x. 38.00 37.80 46.50 14.90 5.70 2.80 2.40 1.80 3.00 1.80 5.30 5.20
Min. Mn
1.20 3.70 5.40 2.10 1.50 0.87 0.49 0.96 0.53 0.23 0.69 0.99
PAver. rom. 25.73 40.16 46.39 16.86 6.77 3.93 2.99 2.20 1.95 1.85 2.79 4.12
12.84 1.242 285
Japo Japo Max. Mx. 67.80 56.30 81.80 33.90 16.20 6.30 5.60 3.90 4.90 4.00 11.50 11.60
Min. Mn
2.00 7.00 13.80 6.20 2.40 2.20 1.60 0.65 0.50 0.39 1.20 1.80
0.49 0.36 0.37 0.61

(m/s)
0.12 0.12 0.04 0.08

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Monthly Evaporation Profile The net or effective evaporation is defined as the difference between the evaporation from the reservoir and the evapotranspiration occurred under natural conditions on the reservoir area. The calculation will be carried out every month for every reservoir based on the tank evaporation (adjusted), the rain and the runoff coefficient in the dam site according to the formula. EN Where:
m
ES
- (1 - ) P
EN - net evaporation ES reservoir evaporation surface P precipitation on the reservoir - runoff coefficient m index of the month
The Angostura meteorological station located in the neighboring basin at an elevation of 4220 masl - is the closest station to the reservoirs with representative monthly precipitation and evaporation records. The annual precipitation and evaporation values (tank or class- A Pan) registered in Angostura are 800 mm and 1567 mm respectively (Charts 3.2 and 3.3). Adjustment factors were applied based on these values considering the elevation and location differences in order to estimate the adequate values in the dam sites (Chart 6.3). A tank coefficient of 0.7 was applied to convert the evaporation measured in the evaporation pan. For a runoff coefficient, 0.44 was estimated in the three sites, and the relation was between the natural flow and the precipitation over the reservoir area. The monthly averages and the annual values of net evaporation were calculated and the results were 581, 666 and 840 mm for Machucocha, Molloco and Japo Reservoirs respectively, as it is shown in Chart 5.3. Chart 5.3: Net evaporation in the reservoirs
L aguna Machucoch
Month
Machucocha Lake
a Enet (mm) -4.9 -11.1 3.2 47.1 66.5 58.3 63.9 71.9 78.6 89.3 79.4 38.9 581
(mm)
E mbalse Molloco
Runoff Es
Molloco Reservoir
E mbalse Japo Enet (mm) 9.6 2.5 15.1 52.5 69.6 60.7 66.5 75.2 82.9 95.3 86.4 50.1 666
Runoff Es (mm)
Japo Reservoir
Mes
E-pan (mm) 129.9 114.2 116.7 112.3 116.3 99.4 107.9 125.3 143.5 173.2 170.8 157.3 1567
Runoff Es (mm)
Precip. (mm) 148.5 142.9 120.0 36.8 6.4 3.0 2.1 6.7 14.1 27.1 42.2 100.0 650
Precip. (mm) 128.0 123.1 103.4 31.7 5.6 2.6 1.8 5.8 12.2 23.3 36.4 86.2 560
Precip. (mm) 102.8 98.9 83.1 25.5 4.5 2.1 1.5 4.6 9.8 18.7 29.2 69.3 450
Enet (mm) 32.9 24.2 34.8 64.0 78.6 68.1 74.4 84.8 94.5 110.3 102.6 70.8 840
(mm ) 78.3 68.9 70.4 67.7 70.2 59.9 65.1 75.6 86.5
(mm ) 81.2 71.4 73.0 70.2 72.8 62.2 67.5 78.4 89.7 108.4 106.8 98.4 980
(mm) 90.5 79.6 81.3 78.3 81.1 69.3 75.2 87.4
Ene Jan
Feb Feb Mar Mar
Abr Apr
May May
Jun Jun
Jul Jul Aug Ago Sept Set Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dic
100.0 120.8 119.0 109.6 1092
104.5 103.0 94.9 945
Ao Year

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Reservoir topography The topography of the reservoirs is defined by the relation elevation area volume given by the respective storage curves. The same curves were applied as they were established and applied in the feasibility study. The maximum and minimum operation levels (NAMO / NAMI) indicated in Illustration 5.4 correspond to those previously established, defining the corresponding useful volumes of 3 100, 150 and 60 Mm (base case). Storage curves, Machucocha Lake, Molloco, Japo Reservoirs
Illustration 5.4:
Area (km
17 4670 4665 4660 4655 4650 16
)
14 13 12
Laguna Machucocha Machucocha Lake

11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
15
l) s asl) 4645 a m
n(
4640
in ( c 4635 a v l 4630 E Elevatio e

4625 4620 4615 4610
Volumen Volume Area Area NAMO 4664.5 masl NAMO 4664.5 msnm NAMI: 4655.5 masl NAMI: 4655.5 msnm
Volumen (Mm Volume (Mm

4605 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340
3 3
))

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Area (km
12 4490 11
)
10 9 8 7
Molloco
6 5 4 3 2 1 0
4485
4480
4475
)l
) as 4470 (m ( n n 4465 masl i ac E Elevatio ev
4455 Volumen Volume Area Area NAMO 4480 masl NAMO 4480 msnm NAMI: 4456 masl NAMI: 4456 msnm 4440 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240
4460
4450
4445
Volumen (Mm 3 ) Volume (Mm )
Area (km
7.0 4230 4225 4220 4215 6.5
)
6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0
Japo
3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
) 4210 sl asl) a m 4205 (m n( n 4200 aci4195 l Elevatio E 4190 ev

4185 4180 4175 4170 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Volumen Volume Area Area NAMO 4218 masl NAMO 4218 msnm NAMI: 4197 masl NAMI: 4197 msnm
VVolume (Mm olumen (Mm

110 120
3 )
)
140
130
Control Rules For this purpose involving the regulation of the reservoirs, neither strict operation rules nor retention levels are defined so as to maximize the firm flow only. During the operation, the filling and emptying cycle from the reservoirs is still performed freely in months and years, being controlled by the maximum and minimum levels only. In case the reservoir is filled to the maximum level, the discharge causes a spill. In case the reservoir is emptied to the minimum level, the discharge will be limited to a value similar to that of the contribution in the current month.

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5.0 Simulation of Reservoirs and Energy Production: Consolidated Report

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5.0 Simulation of Reservoirs and Energy Production: Consolidated Report

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ESTUDIO DE FACTIBILIDAD AMPLIACION DE LA

SIMULATION OF RESERVOIRS AND ENERGY PRODUCTION Investigations

CONSORCIO LAHMEYER AGUA Y ENERGIA TEGEPSA 5.1

ESTUDIO DE FACTIBILIDAD AMPLIACION DE LA

Chart 5.1: Parameters of the Molloco Scheme (Feasibility Study 1986)

4664.5 4655.5 100

Molloco 4480 4456 150

Japo 4218 4197 60

NAMI Volumen til

Power Plants Centrales Upper Lower

Inferior 16.4 726 110 2

Total 16.4 2098 310 6

16.4 1372 200 4

Superior Upper Average Firm

Inferior Lower Average Firm

Esquema Scheme Average Firm

A nual Annual Plant factor F actor planta

Molloco Generation Profiles (Feasibility Study 1986)

200 180 160 ) ) h W 140 G l 120 ( ua (

CONSORCIO LAHMEYER AGUA Y ENERGIA TEGEPSA 5.2

ESTUDIO DE FACTIBILIDAD AMPLIACION DE LA

Regulation Plans and Scenario of Invetigation

CONSORCIO LAHMEYER AGUA Y ENERGIA TEGEPSA 5.3

ESTUDIO DE FACTIBILIDAD AMPLIACION DE LA

Schematic diagram of the Molloco hydroelectric usage

Laguna Machucocha Machucocha Lake

Diversion Llocacocha River

Ataccomayo River Ro Ataccomayo

C Llatica HEPP .H. Llatica

E st. Pallca Pallca Station

CONSORCIO LAHMEYER AGUA Y ENERGIA TEGEPSA 5.4

ESTUDIO DE FACTIBILIDAD AMPLIACION DE LA

CONSORCIO LAHMEYER AGUA Y ENERGIA TEGEPSA 5.5

ESTUDIO DE FACTIBILIDAD AMPLIACION DE LA

= length of the time interval of the month = month index

The net losses in the reservoir are calculated as: Lm Where: E

ESTUDIO DE FACTIBILIDAD AMPLIACION DE LA

The entrance data of the model for a typical application include:

5:2: Monthly Contribution Statistics in the Reservoirs

0.49 0.36 0.37 0.61

0.12 0.12 0.04 0.08

CONSORCIO LAHMEYER AGUA Y ENERGIA TEGEPSA 5.7

ESTUDIO DE FACTIBILIDAD AMPLIACION DE LA

(mm) 90.5 79.6 81.3 78.3 81.1 69.3 75.2 87.4

100.0 120.8 119.0 109.6 1092

104.5 103.0 94.9 945

CONSORCIO LAHMEYER AGUA Y ENERGIA TEGEPSA 5.8

ESTUDIO DE FACTIBILIDAD AMPLIACION DE LA

Laguna Machucocha Machucocha Lake

in ( c 4635 a v l 4630 E Elevatio e

Volumen (Mm Volume (Mm

CONSORCIO LAHMEYER AGUA Y ENERGIA TEGEPSA 5.9

ESTUDIO DE FACTIBILIDAD AMPLIACION DE LA

Volumen (Mm 3 ) Volume (Mm )

) 4210 sl asl) a m 4205 (m n( n 4200 aci4195 l Elevatio E 4190 ev

VVolume (Mm olumen (Mm

CONSORCIO LAHMEYER AGUA Y ENERGIA TEGEPSA 5.10

ESTUDIO DE FACTIBILIDAD AMPLIACION DE LA

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