14 09 2005 B Introduction To Disaster Management

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)
Topics treated :
Introduction to Disaster (Risk) Management
Refresher Course on Geo-Information for Natural Disaster Reduction in Eastern Africa Department of Geography, Makerere University, 12-23 September 2005
Types of hazard Some statistics Disaster Risk Management Components Sources of information Exercise
Cees van Westen And N.M.S.I. Arambepola (ADPC)
Associated Institute of the
ISL 2004
ISL 2004
Disaster
A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society causing widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses which exceed the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources.
What are we talking about?

A disaster is .
a sudden calamitous event bringing great damage, loss or destruction
(Merriam Webster dictionary);

some rapid, instantaneous or profound impact of the natural
environment upon the socio-economic system" (Alexander, 1993)

an event, concentrated in time and space, which threatens a society or a
relatively self-sufficient subdivision of a society with major unwanted consequences as a result of precautions which had hitherto been culturally accepted as unwanted (Turner, 1976). an extreme event as any manifestation of the earth's system (lithosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere or atmosphere) which differs substantially from the mean (Alexander, 1993). an event that results in death or injury to humans, and damage or loss of valuable good, such as buildings, communication systems, agricultural land, forest, natural environment etc.
ISL 2004
ISL 2004
Introduction to GIS
What happened in 2004

2004 had the highest losses due to catastrophes ever: 250000 people killed US$ 145bn economic losses.
This map is pre - 2004
Source: MunichRe
ISL 2004 ISL 2004
2005 will again be the largest

Hurricane Katrina Est.losses 120 billion US $
Natural disasters ?
Disasters occur when a damaging event
impacts the society. Disasters therefore are never natural! However, if a damaging effect impacts on the natural environment ?
ISL 2004
ISL 2004
Introduction to GIS
International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC) HAZARD
Disaster
VULNERABILITY
HAZARD MATERIALIZED
Disasters can be at different magnitude: When does a traffic accident become a disaster Disasters can be at different scales Individual-family-community-municipality. world
VULNERABILITY MATERIALIZED
Disasters can be fast or slow Is desertification a disaster? Is water pollution a disaster? Disasters can be predictable or unexpected Recent disasters in Netherlands: firework explosion, caf fire, airplane crash, animal diseases, flooding
ISL 2004
DISASTER
ISL 2004
Hazard Classification(1)
By Orgin
Hazard Classification(1)
By Orgin
INTERNAL GEO-DYNAMIC PROCESSES HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
GLOBAL-REGIONAL-LOCAL PROCESSES
EXTERNAL GEODYNAMIC PROCESSES
Natural
Earthquake Tsunami Volcanic eruption Snow storm / avalanche Glacial lake outburst Lightning Windstorm Thunderstorm Hailstorm Tornado Cyclone/ Hurricane Asteroid impact Aurora borealis
Some human influence

Flood Dust storm Drought El Nio
Mixed natural /human influence

Landslides Subsidence Erosion Desertification Coal fires Coastal erosion Greenhouse effect Sealevel rise
Some natural influence

Crop disease Insect infestation Forest fire Mangrove decline Coral reef decline Acid rain Ozone depletion
Human
Armed conflict Land mines Major (air-, sea-, land-) traffic accidents Nuclear / chemical accidents Oil spill Water / soil / air pollution Groundwater pollution Electrical power breakdown Pesticides
SEISMIC
GROUND VIBRATION, SPECTRAL RESPONSE, ACCELERATION, INTENSITY
VOLCANIC
EROSION
LANDSLIDES
ERUPTIONS, PIROCLASTIC AND LAVA FLOWS, TSUNAMI, GAS-VAPOR EMISSIONS, ACID RAIN, GLACIER MELTDOWN, LAHARS
CLIMATE VARIABILITY, EL NIO, TROPICAL CONVERGENCE, TROPICAL WAVES, TROUGHS, CYCLONES, POLAR THRUSTS, OROGRAPHIC AND CONVECTIVE STORMS, TORNADOES
TORRENTIAL DEBRIS-FLOWS
Table 1: Classification of disaster in a gradual scale between purely natural and purely human-made.
GROUND FAILURE, LIQUEFACTION, LANDSLIDES, TSUNAMI, CONTINENTAL CRUST SUBSIDENCE-UPLIFT
INTENSE RAINFALL
DROUGHT
WIND
SOIL-NUTRIENT LOSS, SLOPE UNDERMINING, LAND DEGRADATION, EPHEMEROUS RIVER DAMMING AND BED AGGRADATION, TORRENTIAL SEDIMENTATION-DEJECTION
ISL 2004
ISL 2004
EXTREMES IN HYDRIC BALANCE: EXCESS-DEFICIT; FLOODS, INCREASE-DECREASE IN ALBEDO, LAND DEGRADATION
Introduction to GIS
Hazard Classification (2)

Another subdivision is related to the main controlling factors leading to a disaster
Hazard Classification (3)

Another useful distinction that can be made between disaster is regarding their duration of impact and the time of forewarning
Disaster type Duration of impact
Instant Seconds-minutes Second-minutes Second-hours Second-decades Minutes Minutes Minutes-hours Minutes-days Minutes-decades Minutes-years Hours Hours-Days Hours-decades Days-months Weeks-months Years-Decades
Length of forewarning
Seconds hours Seconds minutes seconds-years Seconds- hours Seconds-hours Minutes hours Minutes days Second years Minutes weeks Hours days Seconds days Hours Days weeks Days months Months years
Frequency or type of occurrence

Random Seasonal/diurnal ; random Log-normal Seasonal; negative binomial Seasonal; irregular Seasonal/diurnal; Poisson Seasonal/diurnal; Poisson , gamma Random Seasonal; Markovian, gamma, log-normal Sudden or progressive Irregular Seasonal / irregular Seasonal / random Seasonal / irregular ; exponential , gamma Seasonal / irregular ; binomial , gamma Seasonal /irregular Progressive (threshold may be crossed)
Meteorological Drought Dust storm Flood Lightning Windstorm Thunderstorm Hailstorm Tornado Cyclone/ Hurricane
Geomorphological/ Geological Earthquake Tsunami Volcanic eruption Landslide Snow avalanche Glacial lake outburst Subsidence Groundwater pollution Coal fires Coastal erosion
Ecological Crop disease Insect infestation Forest fire Mangrove decline Coral reef decline
Technological Armed conflict Land mines Major (air-, sea-, land-) traffic accidents Nuclear / chemical accidents Oil spill Water / soil / air pollution Electrical power breakdown Pesticides
Global environmental Acid rain Atmospheric pollution Greenhouse effect Sealevel rise El Nio Ozone depletion
Extra terrestrial Asteroid impact Aurora borealis
Table 2: Classification of disaster related to the main controlling factors leading to a disaster.
Lightning Snow avalanche Earthquake Tornado Landslide Intense rainstorm Hailstorm Tsunami Flood Subsidence Volcanic eruption Cyclone/ Hurricane Forest fire Coastal erosion Drought Crop disease Desertification
Table 3: Classification of disasters by duration of impact, length of forewarning, and frequency or type of occurrence (Alexander, 1993)
ISL 2004 ISL 2004
Disaster statistics
Disaster statistics
ISL 2004
ISL 2004
Introduction to GIS
Disasters 2004
2004: most costly year
MunichRe 2005
ISL 2004
ISL 2004
Disasters per continent

Increasing vulnerability
ongoing trends
Population growth climate variability and climate change Migration of population to cities Higher vulnerability of industrialized societies increased environmental degradation Densely populated communities More people living on marginal lands Greater unplanned settlements due to land scarcity High risk due to natural and manmade hazards
ISL 2004
ISL 2004
Introduction to GIS
Results due to high exposure of Infrastructure

Increased vulnerability to
Primary hazards such as earthquakes, floods, cyclones etc. Potential high impact due to secondary hazards like urban fire, technological and other accidents etc High environmental problems and inconvenience to urban populations More control measures to save facilities,innovative design options are needed
ISL 2004
Climate for investment in infrastructure and other types of development is not encouraging in most developing countries
ISL 2004
In most cities problems connected to governance has become normal.In most cases power sharing is seen with central government.Most areas in city are controlled by central government. Infrastructure facilities are shared by many LGs and CG Mitigation initiatives are not acceptable to all. Urbanization accompanied by significant increase in the scale of poverty of urban population has put pressure on city administration.They can not get revenue from poor but services have to be provided Urban poverty disproportionately affects weaker layers and fuels tensions (such as ethnic and racial tensions),gender sensitivity,less attention to disable groups etc Growth of disparities between affluent and disposed will create different units such as divided cities within a city
Disaster risk management

Disaster management can be defined as the
Disaster Risk Management

The process, by which assessed risks are mitigated, minimized or controlled through engineering, management of land use practices or other operational means. This involves the optimal allocation of available resources in support of group goals. The systematic management of administrative decisions, organisation, operational skills and abilities to implement policies, strategies and coping capacities of the society or individuals to lessen the impacts of natural and related environmental and technological hazards.
effective organization, direction and utilization of available counter-disaster resources The modern view is that there must be predisaster mitigation measures to avoid or reduce impact of disasters. Pre-disaster measures to prevent or mitigate disasters are called Risk Management
ISL 2004
Introduction to GIS
What is Management?
Management
Disaster management cycle

consists of decision-making activities undertaken by one or more individuals to direct and coordinate the activities of other people in order to achieve results, which could not be accomplished by any one person acting alone.
disaster prevention disaster preparedness disaster relief Rehabilitation Reconstruction
Management is required when two or more
persons combine their efforts and resources to accomplish a goal, which neither can accomplish alone.
Traditional approach. Is it really a cycle?
ISL 2004 ISL 2004
Expand-contract model
In this model, disaster management is seen
The Disaster Crunch Model

Fig u re 3 Th e Cr un c h Mod el
as a continuous process. There is a series of activities that run parallel to each other rather than as a sequence
Fig u re 2 E x p a nd Con trac t Mod e l
Prog ress ion o f V uln era bi lity o f a co mmu n ity
It is a framework for understanding and explaining the causes of disaster and adopts a cause-effect perspective. It is a pressure model. Vulnerability (pressure) is seen as rooted in socio-economic and political processes. These have to be addressed (released) for disaster risk reduction. The model reveals a progression of vulnerability. It begins with underlying causes in society that prevents satisfying demands of the people.
U nd e rly ing C a u se s
P re v e n tio n an d m iti ga ti o n st ra nd P re p a re d ne s s s tr a n d R e lie f a n d R e s p on s e s tr a n d
D yn am ic Pr ess u res
R e c o ve ry a nd R e h a b ilit a ti on s tra n d
U ns afe C ondi tion s
CR IS IS
Vu ln er ab ility
Ti m e
D IS A STE R
H a zar d eve nt
Introduction to GIS

Aggravating Factors Of Vulnerability

Natural resources and environmental rapid deterioration Population and productive activities overoverexposed to hazards More vulnerable constructions and productive activities Inadequate capacity for risk management
Population expansion leads to inadequate housing and land needs. Prices of urban land increase. Low -income people may not be able to afford it. Rural urban migration adds more pressure. There is thus expansion of urban areas outwards. The result is ad-hoc urban sprawling The low-income people may occupy land with low demand that may be disaster-prone. They may not have the income to adhere to safe practices and building codes. They may not have proper sanitary conditions, water supply and other utilities. The local governments may come under pressure to provide them but would be unable to do so. But these are dynamic communities that grow and change adding more and more pressure on limited resources. They may show low literacy rates, lack of awareness of disaster potential or preparedness, lack of proper health care which decrease strength to withstand disaster impact, malnutrition, lack of training for livelihoods, disaster prone housing etc. These are unsafe conditions which increase the vulnerability of these communities. They would have no capacity to face a hazard event. When a hazard event happens these communities would bear the brunt of impact and their losses would be greater. Their capacity to recover is minimal
ISL 2004
Inadequate management of natural resources
Random urban growth
Obsolete construction codes
Weak risk management institutions
Population incapable of assessing its vulnerability and confronting emergencies
Inadequate territorial management
Reactive and centralist disaster attention paradigms still prevail
Inadequate development model

Mora ISL 2004 (2005) and Keipi
Underestimation of hazards
Obsolete risk management legislation
Decision makers lack awareness and willingness

Fig u re 4 Th e Re lea se Mod e l C om m uni ty P re p are dn ess
Technocratic view of risk management

Problem
Physical vulnerability High death toll and damages of infrastructure attributed to severity of hazard,extensive and recurrent rehabilitation needs Uncontrolled characteristics of hazard events, Physiography of the prone area,Lack of inadequacy of protective infrastructure,Failure of forecasting and warnings Improve the protection capacity of infrastructure Improve technology,design the structures to resist Eradicate bad habits,ignorance through awareness creation and capacity building of professionals Improve forecasting,warning, response mechanisms,preparedness measures Formulate action plans,enact appropriate legislation,land use control,building standards,risk mapping
Symptoms as perceived
R ISK R E D U CT ION
H azar d P reve nt ion
H azar d M itiga tio n
The causes:
Safer C ondi tion s
Solutions:

R ed u ction s in D yn am ic Pr ess ures
A dd ress U nd erly ing C ause s
Th e Pr og ress of S afety as a r everse o f the P rog ress ion of Vul n era b ili ty
ISL 2004
ISL 2004
Introduction to GIS
Development view for risk management

Key elements of Disaster Management

Pre-disaster phases
Risk Identification
Hazard Assessment
Problem
Post-disaster phases
Preparedness Emergency response
Humanitarian assistance / rescue Clean-up, temporary repairs and restoration of services Damage assessment
Physical vulnerability is a symptom of its economic vulnerability High death toll and damages to infrastructure attributed to severity of hazard,extensive and recurrent rehabilitation needs Land use policies that have encourage rapid population growth,Land distribution and resource allocation policies,,insufficient employment opportunities,deterioration of social insurance within the society Change the emphasis on structural mitigation programs aimed at physical protection and the over reliance on technology solutions. Initiate action to reduce the exposure of population to hazard events through advance planning of land use Building up more resources of the most vulnerable sections of community. Create credit facilities,opportunities to borrow money,create capital investments opportunities Promote more initiatives for risk transfer
Mitigation
Risk Transfer
Symptoms as perceived
Rehabilitation and Reconstruction

Rehabilitation/re construction of damaged critical infrastructure Macroeconomic and budget management
Physical/structur al mitigation works Land-use planning and building codes
Insurance/ reinsurance
Causes
Vulnerability assessment
Financial market instruments
Early warning systems. Communication systems Monitoring and forecasting
Solutions:
Risk Assessment
Economic incentives
GIS mapping and scenario building
Education, training and awareness
Privatization of public services with safety regulations Calamity funds
Shelter facilities Emergency planning Contingency planning (utility companies / public services)
Revitalization of affected sectors (exports,tourism) Incorporation of disaster mitigation components in reconstruction
Mobilization of recovery resources
ISL 2004
Sources: Worldbank, DMF & USAID

ISL 2004
Risk
Risk is the likelihood or probability of a
Risk
Risk is the exposure or the chance of loss due to a
hazard event of a certain magnitude occurring. Risks are measures of the threat of hazards. -ADPC
particular hazard for a given area and reference period. It may be expressed mathematically as the probability that a hazard impact will occur multiplied by the consequences of that impact. -ADPC
Risk is the actual exposure of something of human value to a hazard. Often regarded as the product of probability and loss.. -ADPC
ISL 2004
Note: Definitions of risk in the hazards literature vary from those that equate risk with probability to those that see risk as the product of a probability and a particular kind of impact occurring
ISL 2004
Introduction to GIS
Risk Management Process
Risk reduction
Effective risk reduction involves mitigation
Risk management has three components.

Risk identification Risk reduction Risk transfer
Risk identification has to be done through mapping and using other available technological options. It is usual to allocate risk management to a special body at national level. Usually it is a National Disaster Management Organization (NDMO) at national level.Others support should be obtained within a National Action Plan for DM At local level it may be the responsibility of a Disaster Mitigation Committee, which administers risk management. This varies in different countries depending on administrative patterns and needs.
measures in hazard prone areas. It may also involve overcoming the socioeconomic, institutional and political barriers to the adoption of effective risk reduction strategies and measures in developing countries. The systematic development and application of policies, strategies and practices to minimise vulnerabilities, hazards and the unfolding of disaster impacts throughout a society, in the broad context of sustainable development.
ISL 2004
ISL 2004
Risk Transfer
Hazard, Vulnerability and elements at risk

Natural hazard (H): the probability of occurrence of a potentially damaging phenomenon within a specified period of time and within a given area. Vulnerability (V): the degree of loss to a given element or set of elements at risk (see below) resulting from the occurrence of a natural phenomenon of a given magnitude. It is expressed on a scale from 0 (no damage) to 1 (total loss). Elements at risk (E): the population, properties, economic activities, including public services, etc. at risk in a given area.
Effective risk transfer involves different tools such as insurance,tax policies,special measures focused on land management. Organizational structure,policies,legislation etc. is required for effective implementation of risk transfer strategies for a country or local government area.
ISL 2004
ISL 2004
Introduction to GIS
10
10
Hazard, vulnerability and risk?

RISK = HAZARD * VULNERABILITY * AMOUNT Hazard=
PROBABILITY of event with a certain magnitude Degree of damage. Function of: magnitude of event, and type of elements at risk
Risk assessment
Vulnerability =
Amount =
Quantification of the elements at risk e.g . Replacement costs of buildings, infrastructure etc. Loss of function or economic activities Number of people
ISL 2004
Source: OAS , Steve Bender (2003) ISL 2004
Tangible versus intangible losses

Losses as consequence of a natural hazard can either be: tangible when a monetary value can be assigned or intangible when no monetary value can be assigned.
TYPOLOGY OF LOSSES
MEASUREMENT
TANGIBLE INTANGIBLE
FORM OF LOSS
INDIRECT
? ?
? ?
DIRECT
ISL 2004
ISL 2004
Introduction to GIS
11
11
Effects:
Physical Environmental Economical Social Cultural Political

Direct losses
Result from the physical interaction of the natural phenomenon with the damageable property. The magnitude of the damage may be taken as the cost of restoration of property to its conditions before the event, or its loss in market value if restoration is not worthwhile. Direct damages are a function of many variables !
ISL 2004
ISL 2004
Examples of Direct Effects
Indirect losses
Direct physical damage:

Houses destroyed Houses damaged (to certain degrees) Damage to content of buildings (destroyed) Other buildings damaged (commercial, institutional etc.) Critical facilities destroyed (hospitals etc) Critical facilities damaged (functionality..) Lifelines disrupted (water, gas, electricity, telecommunications) Transportation systems disrupted. Death to human beings; Injury of human beings (in certain degrees) Psychological effects (shock, panic) Offices / factories out of function / partially functioning Loss of goods / stocks / livelyhood
Direct social damage:

Direct economical damage:

Are caused by disruption of physical and economic linkages of the economy. Examples include interruption of traffic flow, loss of industrial production, loss of personal income and business profit.
ISL 2004
ISL 2004
Introduction to GIS
12
12
Examples of Indirect Effects Short term
Examples of Indirect Effects Long term
Indirect economical damage:

Long term economical damage:

Factories / shops / offices out of business or partly functioning Loss of services (gas , water, electricity, telecommunications) for different periods in different areas Costs for repair of lifelines and transportation systems Costs for temporary housing, relocation of people, Repair of damage of buildings Replacement of contents (e.g. Furniture , computers etc) Costs for clean-up, demolition. Costs for planning reconstruction. Compensation payments by government & insurance companies Hospitalization, More disabled persons Homelessness Disruption of communities (other neighbours, schools, etc.) Disruption of social and governmental functions. Psychological effects (grief, apathy, anger) Social disorder (riots, insecurity, looting, abuse of help)
Costs for reconstruction of buildings and infrastructure Increase in unemployment Decrease in production, export, tourism, economic growth Diversion of investments
Long term social effects

Indirect social damage:

Politcal instability Increase of poverty Increase of social insecurity (violence, crime rate, etc)
Also long term positive effects are possible:

Increasing economic activities in certain sectors (construction industry) Opportunities to adopt new technology Revitalisation of economy Improved disaster prevention and preparedness
ISL 2004
Indirect environmental damage
Depends on initial economic, political, cultural and religious factors of A society.

ISL 2004
Introduction to GIS
13
13

14 09 2005 B Introduction To Disaster Management

Diunggah oleh

Informasi Dokumen

Deskripsi Asli:

Judul Asli

Hak Cipta

Format Tersedia

Bagikan dokumen Ini

Bagikan atau Tanam Dokumen

Opsi Berbagi

Apakah menurut Anda dokumen ini bermanfaat?

Apakah konten ini tidak pantas?

Hak Cipta:

Format Tersedia

14 09 2005 B Introduction To Disaster Management

Diunggah oleh

Hak Cipta:

Format Tersedia

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

Cees van Westen And N.M.S.I. Arambepola (ADPC)

Associated Institute of the

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

What are we talking about?

(Merriam Webster dictionary);

environment upon the socio-economic system" (Alexander, 1993)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

What happened in 2004

This map is pre - 2004

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

2005 will again be the largest

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

EXTERNAL GEODYNAMIC PROCESSES

Some human influence

Mixed natural /human influence

Some natural influence

GROUND FAILURE, LIQUEFACTION, LANDSLIDES, TSUNAMI, CONTINENTAL CRUST SUBSIDENCE-UPLIFT

EXTREMES IN HYDRIC BALANCE: EXCESS-DEFICIT; FLOODS, INCREASE-DECREASE IN ALBEDO, LAND DEGRADATION

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

Hazard Classification (2)

Hazard Classification (3)

Frequency or type of occurrence

Extra terrestrial Asteroid impact Aurora borealis

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

2004: most costly year

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

Disasters per continent

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

Results due to high exposure of Infrastructure

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

Disaster risk management

Disaster Risk Management

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

Disaster management cycle

disaster prevention disaster preparedness disaster relief Rehabilitation Reconstruction

Management is required when two or more

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

The Disaster Crunch Model

Prog ress ion o f V uln era bi lity o f a co mmu n ity

P re v e n tio n an d m iti ga ti o n st ra nd P re p a re d ne s s s tr a n d R e lie f a n d R e s p on s e s tr a n d

U ns afe C ondi tion s

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

The Disaster Crunch Model

Aggravating Factors Of Vulnerability

Inadequate management of natural resources