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Strategy and innovation

Issue 15 reprint

Designing your
fiercest competitor
Mastering change by
making it real
Strategy and innovation

Designing your fiercest competitor


Mastering change by making it real

2 PwC View Issue 15


By John J. Sviokla and Adam J. Gutstein
John J. Sviokla is a Principal in PwC’s US
Advisory practice where he serves as business
leader for strategy and innovation. Principal
Adam J. Gutstein is the management consulting
leader in that practice.

So we won’t experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century—


it will be more like 20,000 years of progress….
Ray Kurzweil

The speed of change is increasing at an alarming rate. Authors


John J. Sviokla and Adam J. Gutstein argue that to prepare for
accelerated change, companies need to look at five critical factors
that they call the STEEP drivers: social, technological, environmental,
economic, and political. Further, they maintain that management
teams like yours can make these drivers of change “real” by asking
leadership to “design a fiercest competitor” that could disrupt your
industry. This manner of thinking and design sets the stage for actions
management can take to benefit from, rather than be overwhelmed by,
this rapidly changing environment.

Legend has it that in 1994, Bill Gates’ ran on the PC, but also the capabilities of the 2003.3 Even the deepest experts did not
assistant, Steve Sonofsky, was visiting Internet and the tools (the Internet Explorer understand how “the law of accelerating
his alma mater, Cornell University. While browser, for example) needed to fully exploit returns” (a phrase coined by Ray Kurzweil),
there, he noted that Cornell was “taking them. He was not going to let a new, fierce which posits that “technological change is
full advantage of the fledgling Internet— competitor take advantage of this technologi- exponential,”4 works. They could not see
email, course listings, international faculty cal and social trend—the Internet—and use how a combination of computer power,
collaborations, etc.—and fired off an email it to beat his company. increased understanding, competitive
to his boss.”1 As a result, Gates became con- access, and the knowledge network across
vinced that he needed to shift Microsoft’s At the time, Gates demonstrated vision, the Internet could make things happen
focus toward the Internet—and fast. He tenacity, and, ultimately, the ability to much faster than expected.
sent out a long memo2 that stated that the organize and execute—qualities that are
Internet was taking off and that Microsoft even more important today. The world is In our view, in this world of faster change,
would be a part of it. more complex now than it was a decade it is time to examine the interlocking factors
ago. Things are changing faster because of social, technological, environmental,
Moreover, he wove this fundamental change science is expanding and, most important, economic, and political change: STEEP
into his story about the company. In particu- because feedback loops in technology, drivers. Making these real is an exercise in
lar, he noted that the Internet was a natural knowledge, and networks amplify learning. creative destruction that involves a manage-
extension of the desktop and part of the per- For example, in 1990, the Human ment team’s designing a fiercest competitor
sonal computer domain. In other words, he Genome Project was expected to last 15 that could take advantage of these fast-
changed the mental model of the company: years. However, because of advances in moving trends for competitive gain.
It would from now on be not only about what technology, the task was completed by

1 http://www.cornell.edu/about/wired/.
2 This memo can be found at http://www.lettersofnote.com/2011/07/internet-tidal-wave.html.
3 http://www.ornl.gov/sci/techresources/Human_Genome/faq/faqs1.shtml.
4 http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns.

PwC View Issue 15 3


The STEEP drivers provide context which commerce functions. Riding atop Affecting the micro domain
In order to make sense of this accelerat- the Internet, social networks like Facebook Recently, a major airline discovered how
ing situation, we considered hundreds of and LinkedIn, or user-driven review sites the micro context of its brand could be af-
trends, predictions, and forecasts, as well like Yelp! and Rotten Tomatoes, have fected by the impact of social networks. A
as their methods. We synthesized these developed and taken hold at a phenomenal well-known celebrity who had more than
forward-looking ideas into a model of five pace. As pundits have noted, by population, 1.4 million Twitter followers was using his
vital, interrelated drivers that we believe Facebook, created only eight years ago, account to complain about the service he
are the critical factors disrupting industries would be the third-largest country in received. He was updating his audience in
and recreating the lines of competition. the world.5 real time about his feelings. Fortunately
(See Figure 1.) Understanding these core for the airline, representatives continually
drivers and how they impact an organiza- Today, social networks not only offer monitor social media in real time to discover
tion is key to managing in this world of extensive consumer information, but what people are saying about the company.
accelerating returns. also provide an infrastructure capable As a result, they were able to view conversa-
of shaping society’s institutions—through tions and complaints and to respond almost
Driver 1: Social self-organization, fundraising, and immediately to the issue that this famous,
By nature, people are social. Whether it is political action. In a business context, this disgruntled customer had with the airline.
a friend who badmouths his car mechanic, means that social media is reshaping the
or a distant cousin who helps get you micro context of a company’s brand and Social media are completely integrated
that new job, the impact of social con­ services, and the macro context of politics with the airline’s customer contact centers,
nections always has been the base upon and regulation. from the phone, to the Web, to social
networks. This enables the firm to have a
live, informed conversation with its audi-
ence around the clock, throughout the year.
If your firm does not perform this kind of
Figure 1: STEEP—A broad set of drivers with the potential to disrupt all industries
monitoring and responsiveness, there may
be conversations happening about you of
which you are unaware, and lack of atten-
tion can allow negative perceptions or even
wrong claims to fester and grow.

Trust is a significant factor in this new


Social Technological world. Customers are more willing to
trust a peer or customer review than a
company’s claims about its product or
service. Numerous websites and forums
bear this out. However, today, a potent
STEEP factor has been added to the equation.
Drivers Social networks increase the ability of
online shoppers to make use of multiple
Political Environmental distribution channels and outlets, making
the influence of opinion that much more
powerful. For example, a recent PwC study
of more than 7,000 online users around
the globe found that the vast majority—
Economic 86 percent—of survey respondents shop
across at least two channels, and 25 percent
are using four or five.6 In this process, they
often turn to social media to help them
make their choices.

5 Dan Fletcher, “How Facebook Is Redefining Privacy,” May 20, 2010, at http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1990798,00.html.
6 PwC, Customers take control: How the multi-channel shopper is changing the global retail landscape, December 2011.

4 PwC View Issue 15


1 01:10:29

2 09:22:31
3 12:08:32
4 16:43:05
5 24:34:43
6 30:23:15
7 36:12:56

How are companies taking advantage of funds, and take action has become much phones worldwide. Almost all new cars are
these new social developments? The savvy easier. More than ever, businesses need to connected to the Internet. The Internet of
ones are co-creating products and services understand who is shaping the agenda for Things is adding everything from insulin
with their customers. Sports apparel manu- their companies and industries. pumps to light switches onto the grid. Big
facturer Nike offers one example. With the Data allow for the decoding of human ge-
Nike+ system, a small, removable elec- Part of the reason that social media has nomes and the ability of computers to beat
tronic pod is a part of the insole of the shoe. grown so quickly is the result of positive humans at chess. And these examples are in
This pod, which is the size of a quarter, feedback. That is, the more that people use no way comprehensive.8
sends results to a smart device and allows the medium, add reviews, or watch online
runners to track their own training, includ- videos, the more likely they are to find some- Connecting everything means that firms
ing distance and pace. This information is thing useful and come back. Coming back increasingly need to compete not just on
automatically uploaded to a website and for something useful is not different. What is the quality of their physical value chain,
runners can share their routes, routines, new is the permanency of the network and but also on their ability to manage their
and comments easily and quickly. This the increasing returns it creates in terms of information value chain. 7-Eleven® in Japan
innovative product system, with its social its value. In a network, positive feedback has such great control over its informa-
overlay, differentiates the shoe. drives rapid adoption, a phenomenon that tion value chain that it tells store managers
we expect to continue to grow. how to restock to meet the demand of
Affecting the macro domain the breakfast crowd, the lunch rush, the
Since the commercialization of the Internet, Driver 2: Technological afternoon snacker, the evening shopper, and
the number of registered non-governmental We live in a wondrous and disconcerting the late-night eater. The company is able
organizations has grown from 1,250 to more age. Chances are your briefcase or pocket to drive more sales because its information
than 45,000,7 and today, many of these ride holds one of the latest waves of technologi- value chain allows it to slice the store in time
atop the Internet. This means that the ability cal change. Based on cellular subscriptions, increments, thereby creating more virtual
of special interest groups to organize, raise there are now more than 5 billion cell square footage through information.

7 http://www.apa.org/international/united-nations/publications.aspx.
8 The Internet of Things is “a new kind of network that will allow sensor-enabled physical objects—appliances in your home, products in a factory, cars in a city—to talk to one another, the same way
people communicate over the Internet.” See Time’s “Best Inventions of 2008” at http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1852747_1854195_1854158,00.html.
“Big Data” refers to “massive amounts of data” that “are analyzed with massively parallel computers.”
Read the full definition at http://www.pcmag.com/encyclopedia_term/0,2542,t=Big+Data&i=62849,00.asp.

PwC View Issue 15 5


deal with the needs of the here and now.
LIFESAVER has developed a bottle-based
(and therefore portable) water purifica-
tion system that instantly creates potable
water by filtering toxins and other impuri-
ties and has filled a need that ranges from
humanitarian efforts resulting from natural
disasters to individuals traveling to locations
where drinkable water may not be readily
available. Others, like Nanoholdings LLC,
have their sights firmly fixed on the future.
Nanoholdings is using cutting-edge nano-
technology to approach energy generation
in new, environmentally friendly ways.

Whether focusing on today or tomorrow,


eco-friendly business is here to stay and
General Electric’s aircraft engine business respondents agree or strongly agree that sure to grow, offering significant opportu-
has more information about the behavior an important part of their innovation nities for success through innovation.
of the engine on the wing that it tracks in strategy is to develop products or services
its command center than the pilots have that are environmentally friendly. Driver 4: Economic
in the cockpit. By being able to track this Evidence points to the fact that the
information in real time, GE can provide In short, in an increasingly competitive developing world is growing at a
customers with more analysis and preven- market, eco-friendliness is a differentiator, faster pace than the developed world.
tative maintenance, thereby increasing and more and more firms are recognizing (See Figure 2.)
up-time. Most important, by having a the need to determine the implications
technological connection to the engine in of environmental matters for themselves, Most companies not only expect to grow
flight, GE can sell “power by the hour” and their customers, and their locations. in their home markets, but also intend to
provide airlines with a service whereby expand in other countries. Firms headquar-
they pay only for those hours of engine use Consider MBA Polymers, for example, tered in the developed world want to grow
they consume while GE worries about own- a company that has taken a potential in the developing world and vice versa.
ing, providing, and maintaining the asset. eco-disaster—discarded post-consumer (See Figure 3.) Because there will be
We see a growing number of companies plastic—and turned it into a successful intensive competition both in developed
using this technology-based advantage to enterprise. When founder and plastics as well as in emerging markets, companies
enhance their products, create new and engineer Mike Biddle discovered that, need to understand how to manage a global
better services, and retain customers. for a variety of reasons, very little plastic supply base while meeting the needs of
was being recycled, he set out to find a their local markets.
Driver 3: Environmental solution. He developed a 30-step plastics
From a business perspective, eco-friendliness recycling system that results in a product In our view, the need to grow will drive
used to be primarily about reputation. That that requires less than one-tenth of the companies to manage their costs in a glob-
no longer is the case. Today, there is pressure energy needed to make new plastic from ally efficient manner. This is evident in that
on every industry to deal with power, water, crude oil. As a consequence of an innovative, almost every major company is establishing
and general environmental impact. eco-friendly solution, MBA Polymers has research and development centers around
grown to include plants in China, Austria, the globe and sourcing from an ever-wider
CEOs are recognizing that sustainability and the United Kingdom, with plans to base of global suppliers. For example, a
is as important to competitiveness as it is open additional plants in the future. large multi-level marketing company we
to image, permeating every aspect of an worked with had standardized its core
organization, from talent recruitment to Other companies also have taken advantage products and business concepts around the
innovation. In fact, according to our 14th of the demand for eco-friendly products and world. At the same time, it was important
Annual Global CEO Survey, 64 percent of services. Some, like LIFESAVER® systems, to meet the local variations in a number

6 PwC View Issue 15


of markets. Therefore, the products that Figure 2: GDP growth forecasts 2011
the company stocked and the business
China
model it followed differed country by
10%
country. The Internet is an infrastructure
India
that enables simultaneous standardization
of some capabilities and localization of 8%
others. Again, this trend is accelerating
as a combination of more open trade and
the Internet enables a worldwide platform 6%

for commerce. Turkey


Brazil

4%
Driver 5: Political US
While politics have always affected business, Germany
UK
the current political environment is changing 2%
France
on many dimensions simultaneously. Three
trends are worth noting. First is the rise Spain

of state-sponsored capitalism. This is not 0%

entirely a new phenomenon. One of the


Source: PwC economic forecasts
first shared stock corporations with
limited liability—the East India Company
(1600-1874)—was sponsored by the
British Empire. Yet the scale and scope
of some of these nationally backed firms
are enormous.

Second is the complex relationship between


government and business. Among CEOs
surveyed in 2011, overregulation was
seen as one of the top three threats to
business growth prospects. However,
“Nearly three-quarters of CEOs told us
they would actively support new govern-
ment policies that promote ‘good growth’
that is economically, socially, and environ-
mentally sustainable.”9 Figure 3: Where will the growth come from?

Third, as we mentioned earlier, the rise of Region of operations

special interest groups has been dramatic. Company Africa Asia Austral- Eastern Latin Middle North Western
At least part of the reason that political headquarters asia Europe America East America Europe

institutions are more indecisive than they Africa 93% 89% 33% 100% 100% 75% 29% 36%
have been in the past is that the Internet
Asia-Pacific 73% 88% 77% 40% 80% 70% 40% 32%
has enabled greater numbers of people to
self-organize around their cause. The more CEE* 80% 87% 83% 73% 80% 55% 71% 69%
than 45,000 groups can exert many pres-
Latin America 67% 86% 18% 59% 86% 47% 48% 31%
sures on the powers that be.
Middle East 70% 100% 50% 0% 0% 85% 25% 0%
Clearly, social, technological, environmen-
North America 64% 94% 71% 67% 80% 73% 67% 51%
tal, economic, and political drivers are
moving in more accelerated and interactive Western Europe 72% 92% 57% 75% 86% 75% 55% 48%
ways than ever before.
*Central and Eastern Europe
0% 100%
9 PwC, 14th Annual Global CEO Survey, 2011. Source: PwC, 14th Annual Global CEO Survey, 2011

PwC View Issue 15 7


Designing your fiercest competitor: While it is easy to consider the STEEP driv- organization. A mental model is a picture
Addressing the STEEP drivers in ers in an abstract manner, it’s not as easy to of how the world actually works. It is
your business confront them in concrete and immediate based on data, relationships, and everyday
ways—that is, in ways that really can have experiences. While mental models are
an impact on your company. As any leader somewhat imprecise, subject to change,
knows, organizational change depends and inconsistent, they also are prone to
on winning people’s minds and hearts. In creativity and/or flashes of insight.
order to begin a process of change, people
need to be affected on both a rational and Let’s take an example from the airline
an emotional level. An abstract consider- industry to illustrate how mental models
ation of change that somehow is not very work. Executives at an airline brought
meaningful today will not get that job done. with them a mental model of the experi-
What’s needed is a technique that brings ence of flying with their organization that
an immediacy to change and that leads to was composed of elements such as sup-
concrete action steps to deal with it. An port, innovation, trust, transparency, and
exercise that facilitates designing your quality. However, stories about the flying
fiercest competitor is one such technique. experience on this airline were propagat-
(See Figure 4.) ing across social networks via social media,
forever changing management’s notion
Altering the mental model of how traditional media work. Data on
Everyone who works for, buys from, does interactions with, for example, gate agents,
business or interacts in any way with a flight attendants, and baggage handlers
company forms a mental model of that also affected the mental image, as did

8 PwC View Issue 15


moments of truth, those profound experi- get out of their old mental habits and imag- facilitate the creation of a new-age insurance
ences with a company—good or bad—that ine new ways to compete. firm. In conducting exercises of this sort, we
can remain with consumers for years. often suggest that the fiercest competitor
Developing scenarios be imagined as a greenfield firm because it
Anticipating a fiercest competitor can have Once this is accomplished, the fact base from helps the senior team be unconstrained by
the same impact with regard to altering a the STEEP drivers relevant to the company’s current capabilities, organizational culture,
mental model. It is critical that manage- industry can be used to imagine a couple performance standards, and norms.
ment teams learn how to design such a of scenarios that jump-start a worrisome
competitor in order to envision how new conversation. For example, if you are Apple, As Clay Christensen has pointed out, compa-
entities might enter their market and dis- as a starting point, you might imagine what nies are often blind-sided by firms that take
rupt their business. happens to your video business if Microsoft advantage of emerging trends and serve a
were to buy Netflix and do a distribution lower price/underserved market.10 In short,
One way to do this is to ask management to deal with Facebook. Or if you are a prop- we are asking executives to design disruptive
imagine that they have been fired from their erty and casualty insurance company, you competitors. We find that by doing this fierc-
own firm and given access to capital and tal- might imagine what would happen if Google est competitor exercise, the STEEP drivers
ent. Most executives know their company’s teamed up with an investment house that become real in a context senior management
weaknesses—the soft underbelly, if you was willing to create a retail insurance prod- can understand and find motivating on a
will—and where the opportunities lie in a uct, and it used Google’s search expertise to rational and an emotional level.
market for a firm that can move with a new help in underwriting and sales. Under these 10 The Innovator’s Dilemma, Harvard Business School Press,
model. This exercise helps senior executives hypothetical circumstances, Google could 1997.

Figure 4: A fiercest competitor exercise

Alter your mental model Imagine scenarios involving Apply insights gained
disruptive, greenfield competitors

PwC View Issue 15 9


Figure 5: Creating a disruptive business model

Applying the insights be building relationships. STEEP drivers


The critical leadership question is this: uncover new complementors, channel
What does one do with the insights that are players, and emerging third parties.
generated from a fiercest competitor design
exercise? The output usually comes in three Third, and the most difficult, is that the
Accelerate or eliminate existing initiatives forms. (See Figure 5.) senior team begins to have ideas for disrup-
tive business designs. The problem for the
First, most executive teams immediately CEO is that few organizations have the
find places in their business where they right talent, organizational structure, and
need to accelerate existing initiatives funding to build a truly disruptive competi-
or eliminate them so as to focus on the tor—but it can be done.
present and future rather than on the past.
For example, after a fiercest competitor Determining success—a caveat
workshop at one major insurance company, While some businesses are poised to
management chose the former approach. extend their existing models to the next
They amped up their direct-to-consumer wave of change to meet the challenge of
Pursue new partnerships strategy because they saw its weakness in a fiercest competitor, success is neither
that channel much more clearly. A differ- easy nor assured. When the trends portend
ent firm saw that it needed to create a new a disruptive competitor, we have found
product to blunt a possible strategic weak- few—if any—companies that successfully
ness if and when inflation returns. created disruptive business models within
their own organizations. The winners
Second, senior teams pursue partnerships usually devise a way to “hot-house” the
with outside firms with which they should new business model.
Develop disruptive business designs

Launching new products at Green Mountain Coffee®


At Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, coupled with an infrastructure that enables
anticipating its fiercest competitor means innovation and, consequently, the launch-
applying innovation energy at all levels of ing of hit products.” By bringing together
the organization. The ultimate goal? To quality coffee and a unique single-serve
generate a revenue stream that grows by delivery system, the Keurig K-Cup single-
15 percent per year through the introduc- serve brewer is a home run for Green
tion of new hit products. Mountain and is today, as Hartley describes
it, “the fastest-growing consumer product
However, according to Kevin Hartley, Vice in the US, except for the iPad.”
President of Strategy at Green Mountain,
this is easier said than done. “While critical Success, however, doesn’t just happen.
to the launching of hit products, innovation It requires infrastructures suitable to the
is not for wimps. It’s ugly, and in large or- launching of global hit products, including
ganizations, it collides with the status quo.” individuals who are drivers of innovation,
What’s needed, he says, is “an understand- suitable gatekeepers, and assets that are
ing of the dynamics of the organization, aligned with opportunities.

10 PwC View Issue 15


One way is to establish disruptive innova-
tions as separate organizational entities While some businesses are poised to extend their existing models to
with their own funding and leadership and the next wave of change to meet the challenge of a fiercest competitor,
with a plan to integrate them after they
success is neither easy nor assured.
grow to scale. If there is a relationship to
the parent, it is usually arm’s length,
at least until the division grows large
enough to stand on its own. At that time,
it is reintegrated. This is how IBM entered
the personal computer business in the
1980s, and it was how W.W. Grainger overall Schwab structure and eventually partnerships, and, in the case of truly fierce
created a market-leading online capability, became the core of the new Schwab. designs, avoid being seduced by the hope
Grainger.com, in the mid 1990s. Bottom Likewise, Green Mountain Coffee has been that you can incubate this new model within
line: The more disruptive the business able to incubate radical inventions within your own firm without appropriate distance
model is to the parent company, the greater its core business. (See the sidebar below.) between the old and the new. History shows
“distance” it needs from the core. that successful companies will kill the new
Deriving value idea with kindness if they are kept too close.
There are, however, always the exceptions While workshops can be intellectually Like a rogue relative, a new idea needs time
that prove the rule. Though it’s not the stimulating and encourage teamwork, if to develop and mature before returning
norm, with strong leadership and proper value is not the result, the entire exercise is to the fold. If your organization lacks the
guidance, disruptive business models can in vain. If you are going to extract economic courage to give new ideas a chance to thrive
be incubated closer to home. Cases in point: value from the fiercest competitor design and grow, the market will give birth to your
Schwab Online and Green Mountain Coffee. effort, you must look to accelerate key inter- worst nightmare. If it has that courage and
Schwab Online was created within the nal initiatives, constrain others, create new exploits it to the fullest, you will succeed.

Hartley refers to individuals who drive the ideas they are judging. The key is to Finally, when launching a global hit product,
innovation as producers. “A producer,” avoid the tyranny of the check mark—the it’s important that assets equal opportuni-
he says, “takes an idea and rams it through naysayers who insist, ‘Yeah, we tried that, ties. Says Hartley, “If you have a vision of a
until it exists in the physical world. Produc- it didn’t work.’” Often, when new products global hit product, your assets—human and
ers are change agents who never give up. founder, the blame rests with the internal financial—must be appropriately sized to the
Rather, they take decision makers through adjudicators. Because they’re judging new opportunity. If you’re not going to do that,
the processes needed to make great new products, they may lack adequate knowl- you should just forget about innovation.”
products real. They lay the groundwork edge of the customer or the market. Big
for infrastructures that enable creation.” ideas can get so diluted prior to execution The team at Green Mountain Coffee
that they barely resemble the original con- practices what they preach. But they are
When it comes to launching new hit prod- cept. As Hartley points out, “If you want to not resting on their laurels. According to
ucts, every large organization has internal set an infrastructure for launching hit prod- Hartley, they intend to apply these principles
adjudicators or gatekeepers who can prevent ucts, the purity and power of the idea has to to achieving their ultimate objective: “We
an idea from reaching its potential. “The be exposed to the consumer.” Anything less want to be the world’s largest single-serve
solution,” says Hartley, “is to use world-class will result in failure. beverage company,” he says. “And new
adjudicators, preferably from outside the global hit products will help us get there.”
organization, who are knowledgeable about

PwC View Issue 15 11


Contacts

John J. Sviokla
One North Wacker
Chicago, IL 60606
+1 312 298 3920
john.sviokla@us.pwc.com

Adam J. Gutstein
One National Life Drive
Fourth Floor
Montpelier, VT 05604
+1 312 298 6888
adam.j.gutstein@us.pwc.com

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