04 May 2012

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

04 May 2012

Contents
Introduction...................................................................................................................... 3
Timing .......................................................................................................................... 3
Value ........................................................................................................................... 4
Conclusion .................................................................................................................... 4
Over Valued .................................................................. 5
Aerospace & Defence

Over Valued ................................................................... 5

Automobiles & Parts
Under Valued ................................................................................... 5
Banks
Over Valued ............................................................................ 5
Beverages
Over Valued ............................................................................ 5
Over Valued .................................................. 6
Construction & Building Materials
Over Valued ................................................. 6
Electronics & Electrical Equipment
Chemicals

Engineering & Machinery

Food & Drug Stores

Under Valued ............................................................ 6

Under Valued .................................................................... 7

Over Valued ....................................................... 7

Food Producers & Processors
Over Valued .......................................................................... 7
General Retail
Under Valued .................................................................................... 7
Health
Under Valued ......................................................... 8
Over Valued ............................................. 8
Information Technology & Hardware
Over Valued ................................................................................ 8
Insurance
Under Valued .................................................................... 8
Leisure & Hotels
Household Goods & Textiles

Under Valued .......................................................................... 9

Over Valued ............................................................... 9
Media & Entertainment
Over Valued .................................................................................... 9
Mining
Under Valued .............................................................................. 10
Oil & Gas
Life Assurance

Personal Care & Household Products

Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
Software & Computer Services
Speciality & Other Finance

Fair Value ........................................... 10

Over Valued ................................................. 10

Under Valued ................................................... 10

Over Valued ......................................................... 11

Over Valued .................................................................. 12

Under Valued ...................................................... 12
Telecommunication Services
Under Valued .............................................................................. 13
Transport

Support Services

Under Valued .................................................................................. 13

Utilities
DISCLAIMER ................................................................................................................... 14
RISK WARNING Recommendations and Target Prices ..................................................... 15

Page 2 of 15

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Intelligent Analysis Limited

Intellisys

04 May 2012

Value Indicator UK Main market

Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will
identify those shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and
information noisy trading environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically,
before the official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the
two primary drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that
influence investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been
established as rules that reflect market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well
as the daily pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find
stories for their investment meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading
indicators appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as
well as some 74% accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks
analysed.
Individual Stock Recommendation & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%

120.0%

110.0%

110.0%

100.0%

100.0%

90.0%

90.0%

80.0%

80.0%

70.0%

70.0%

60.0%

60.0%

50.0%

50.0%

40.0%

40.0%

30.0%

30.0%

20.0%

20.0%
1

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell

Trend

Source: Intellisys

Page 3 of 15

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Intelligent Analysis Limited

Intellisys

04 May 2012

Value Indicator UK Main market

Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Prices. On a daily
basis, Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Profit & Loss
Account but also the Balance Sheet and Cash flow Statement and then utilises this data
within its proprietary valuation models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment
research for the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend
themselves to accurate cross-border analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as
realistically valid as possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Price delivery is not only a function of market
levels but a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating
operating environment set against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a
modest range of some 6 10 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing
the intuitive result. Intellysis approach is the opposite we use as many valuation
methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target prices may appear strange or extreme.
However, subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to
challenge their established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors
from falling in love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems
active position monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and
not separate from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment
options with their financial advisers.

Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)

RISK WARNING Recommendations and Target Prices
Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is
provided solely to enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you should contact
your financial adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you
may not get back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign
currency, fluctuations in the exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and
the income from them. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

Page 4 of 15

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Intelligent Analysis Limited

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

Over Valued

Aerospace & Defence

Stock
BAE SYSTEMS
C HEMRING GROUP
C OBHAM
MEGGITT
ROLLS-ROYC E HOLDINGS
SMITHS GROUP
ULTRA ELEC TRONIC S HDG.
UMEC O

Price 12M Lo
292.40 248.10
371.90 316.90
224.30 165.90
408.00 305.00
841.50 545.04
1078.00 869.50
1725.00 1305.00
564.50 243.50

12M Hi
340.80
677.00
239.50
413.50
859.00
1255.00
1780.00
576.25

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Sell

Price 12M Lo
205.10 157.00
371.60 268.60
62.75
47.00
15.00
6.80

12M Hi
245.00
425.40
72.75
19.71

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Price 12M Lo
213.65 138.85
561.40 463.50
32.07
21.84
24.77
17.34
1453.00 1169.50

12M Hi
283.80
656.20
58.02
42.91
1672.00

Page 5 of 15

Target
168
313
61
20

Beta
1.98
1.42
1.34
1.14

Target
355
991
86
11
855

Beta
1.86
1.14
1.77
1.29
1.71

Over Valued
Price
1158.00
1590.00
2580.00

12M Lo
1031.00
1112.00
1979.00

12M Hi
1395.00
1614.50
2660.00

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Buy

Target
1227
1402
2984

Beta
0.43
0.55
0.99

Over Valued

Chemicals
Stock
C RODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
JOHNSON MATTHEY
VIC TREX
YULE C ATTO
ZOTEFOAMS

LT Rec
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Buy

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Sell Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Sell

Beverages
Stock
BARR (AG)
DIAGEO
SABMILLER

Beta
0.65
0.52
0.91
1.34
1.10
0.73
0.60
0.80

Under Valued

Banks
Stock
BARC LAYS
HSBC HDG. (ORD $0.50)
LLOYDS BANKING GROUP
ROYAL BANK OF SC TL.GP.
STANDARD C HARTERED

Target
594
619
254
408
760
958
1261
467

Over Valued

Automobiles & Parts

Stock
GKN
INC HC APE
LOOKERS
PENDRAGON

04 May 2012

Price
2232.00
206.90
2352.00
1440.00
238.10
181.00

12M Lo
1597.00
107.50
1523.00
1025.00
148.00
109.00

12M Hi
2282.00
208.10
2408.00
1590.00
253.00
186.50

www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral

Target
2159
245
1966
1433
179
175

Intelligent Analysis Limited

Beta
1.08
1.07
1.47
1.22
1.29
1.01

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

Over Valued

Construction & Building Materials

Stock
BALFOUR BEATTY
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
BELLWAY
BERKELEY GROUP HDG.(THE)
BOVIS HOMES GROUP
C ARILLION
C LARKE (T)
C OSTAIN GROUP
GALLIFORD TRY
KELLER
KIER GROUP
LOW & BONAR
MARSHALLS
MORGAN SINDALL GROUP
PERSIMMON
REDROW
SIG
TAYLOR WIMPEY
TRAVIS PERKINS
WOLSELEY

Price
264.80
135.20
808.00
1298.00
487.90
296.00
50.25
217.50
648.50
447.50
1182.00
58.00
93.00
670.00
632.50
124.50
103.30
51.95
1041.00
2415.00

12M Lo
214.60
67.50
540.50
1025.00
326.50
264.60
35.50
180.00
383.75
239.25
1095.00
38.00
83.25
510.00
374.00
103.50
76.95
28.71
715.00
1404.00

12M Hi
333.70
151.50
859.50
1414.00
518.50
403.20
98.00
247.50
653.00
671.50
1489.00
76.75
124.00
725.00
706.50
135.30
153.50
52.75
1125.00
2558.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell

Price 12M Lo
1030.00 643.50
600.00 434.30
145.25
86.75
212.60 180.90
216.40 128.50
1225.00 714.00
1455.00 800.00
1902.00 1039.00
0.17
0.14
188.00 120.50
225.00 212.00

12M Hi
1095.00
701.50
149.50
333.90
222.00
1285.00
1886.00
1902.00
0.28
208.00
295.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell

Page 6 of 15

Beta
0.84
1.45
1.01
0.68
1.07
1.09
0.80
0.56
1.05
1.32
1.04
1.11
1.35
0.89
1.10
0.97
1.59
1.50
1.89
1.44

Target
620
728
180
408
129
863
1747
1389
0
349
207

Beta
0.76
1.18
1.35
1.47
2.17
0.99
1.29
1.43
0.64
1.60
1.13

Under Valued

Engineering & Machinery

Stock
AGA RANGEMASTER GROUP
BODYC OTE
C ASTINGS
C OOKSON GROUP
FENNER
HALMA
HILL & SMITH
IMI
METALRAX GROUP
MORGAN C RUC IBLE
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
SPIRAX-SARC O
VITEC GROUP
WEIR GROUP

Target
-52
124
247
1631
61
-213
28
380
-77
287
1340
115
55
13
402
34
132
0
440
625

Over Valued

Electronics & Electrical Equipment

Stock
DIALIGHT
DOMINO PRINTING SC IENC ES
E2V TEC HNOLOGIES
INVENSYS
LAIRD
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
RENISHAW
SPEC TRIS
BIOME TEC HNOLOGIES
TT ELEC TRONIC S
XAAR

04 May 2012

Price
78.00
432.90
300.00
706.50
447.60
405.90
329.00
976.50
8.37
331.40
2258.00
209.90
184.00
2309.00
623.00
1680.00

12M Lo
62.50
225.60
252.50
395.80
280.00
306.30
235.00
636.50
7.25
224.00
1501.00
135.60
150.00
1649.00
488.00
1375.00

12M Hi
121.00
437.10
358.00
747.50
483.70
429.60
393.50
1119.00
11.75
360.00
2260.00
213.00
250.00
2334.00
690.00
2236.00

www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy

Target
126
512
437
747
385
312
489
1186
5
464
1779
202
138
2101
599
1855

Intelligent Analysis Limited

Beta
1.32
1.59
0.98
2.29
1.41
0.76
1.41
1.40
0.86
1.77
0.99
1.77
1.07
0.85
1.52
1.39

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

Under Valued

Food & Drug Stores

Stock
GREGGS
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
SAINSBURY (J)
TESC O
THORNTONS

Price 12M Lo
505.00 445.00
280.00 276.50
308.90 263.50
318.00 310.45
25.88
9.50

12M Hi
558.00
328.00
362.80
420.05
73.50

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral

Price 12M Lo
1228.00 977.00
811.00 588.50
303.50 290.40
307.80 232.00
15.75
3.29
699.00 544.50
2122.00 1892.00

12M Hi
1242.00
841.00
409.70
332.20
35.12
720.50
2189.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell

Price 12M Lo
24.00
16.00
234.90 222.40
1515.00 1092.00
607.00 375.00
8.37
7.25
18.09
9.36
3.42
2.20
42.25
36.00
278.00 269.50
13.12
5.20
834.50 570.00
56.00
52.80
290.40 217.00
357.30 301.80
49.50
26.00
166.00 127.30
2971.00 2153.00
870.00 633.00
38.25
21.50

12M Hi
24.00
304.50
1600.00
741.00
17.50
19.91
8.70
106.00
405.90
31.00
1030.00
151.40
313.80
402.20
51.00
448.50
3060.00
928.50
77.00

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Page 7 of 15

Target
1731
1888
1114
544
-6
974
826

Beta
0.60
0.60
0.93
0.33
1.40
0.63
0.58

LT Rec
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell

Target
30
264
582
191
6
23
2
95
433
1683
1235
271
280
404
17
338
2767
496
24

Beta
0.71
0.49
1.36
1.03
0.65
1.45
0.97
0.93
0.64
0.88
0.48
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.07
0.56
0.78
0.56
1.33

Under Valued

Health
Stock
C ONSORT MEDIC AL
C ORIN GROUP
SMITH & NEPHEW

Beta
0.52
0.45
0.64
0.73
0.77

Over Valued

General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
C ARPETRIGHT
C LINTON C ARDS
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENC H C ONNEC TN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS
JD SPORTS FASHION
KESA ELEC TRIC ALS
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENC ER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERC ARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES

Target
285
351
536
405
27

Over Valued

Food Producers & Processors

Stock
ASSOC IATED BRIT.FOODS
C RANSWIC K
DAIRY C REST
DEVRO
PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)

04 May 2012

Price 12M Lo
663.00 498.00
42.25
35.25
605.50 521.00

12M Hi
665.00
57.75
694.00

www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rec
Sell
Buy
Buy

Target
435
52
788

Intelligent Analysis Limited

Beta
0.39
0.76
0.36

Intellisys

Under Valued

Household Goods & Textiles

Stock
HARVARD INTL.
GAMES WORKSHOP
HEADLAM GROUP
HORNBY

Price 12M Lo
44.50
21.75
570.00 405.00
295.00 233.25
90.25
90.00

12M Hi
44.50
577.50
310.00
145.00

ST Rec
LT
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral Strong

Price 12M Lo
515.50 464.00
235.30 154.10
29.00
14.50
645.00 296.90
55.00
41.00
171.90 105.80
195.00
96.00

12M Hi
645.00
391.40
35.00
717.00
101.00
174.00
244.50

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell

Price 12M Lo
1174.00 787.00
333.10 270.60
141.90 109.60
423.30 336.00
403.70 340.50
707.00 576.00
105.40
99.60
368.25 285.00

12M Hi
1754.00
427.00
151.80
449.00
424.70
764.50
139.80
381.00

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Page 8 of 15

Beta
0.48
0.38
0.93
0.65

Target
397
492
39
250
264
623
48

Beta
0.76
1.20
0.66
0.96
1.16
1.01
1.06

LT Rec
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy

Target
-1551
-4596
1894
69
2258
4113
2520
8202

Beta
0.51
0.49
0.51
0.31
0.50
0.32
0.43
0.50

Under Valued

Leisure & Hotels

Stock
C ARNIVAL
ENTERPRISE INNS
TUI TRAVEL
FULLER SMITH 'A'
GREENE KING
LADBROKES
IC TL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & C PTH.HTLS.
MITC HELLS & BUTLERS
BWIN PARTY DIGITAL ENTM.
PUNC H TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
WETHERSPOON (JD)
WHITBREAD
WILLIAM HILL
MARSTON'S

Target
31
442
397
141

Over Valued

Insurance
Stock
ADMIRAL GROUP
AMLIN
BEAZLEY
C ATLIN GROUP
HISC OX
JARDINE LLOYD THOMPSON
RSA INSURANC E GROUP
NOVAE GROUP

Rec
Sell
Sell
Buy
Buy

Over Valued

Information Technology & Hardware

Stock
ARM HOLDINGS
C SR
FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TEC HNOLOGIES
PSION
SPIRENT C OMMUNIC ATIONS
WOLFSON MIC ROELEC TRONIC S

04 May 2012

Value Indicator UK Main market

Price 12M Lo
2029.00 1742.00
67.00
26.50
195.00 136.70
710.00 615.00
527.50 410.00
180.20 114.00
1516.00 955.00
492.70 371.20
266.10 215.60
150.40 100.60
9.98
9.14
121.00 109.50
289.10 254.90
408.50 380.50
1973.00 1409.00
274.50 183.30
98.60
84.60

12M Hi
2642.00
96.00
250.00
752.00
527.50
181.40
1532.00
535.00
336.80
174.00
15.57
153.70
329.00
468.30
2006.00
281.70
112.00

www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rec
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Neutral
Strong Buy

Target
3124
27
673
568
557
164
1698
571
334
117
-197
180
313
581
1575
269
153

Intelligent Analysis Limited

Beta
1.08
1.73
0.95
0.44
0.86
1.00
1.31
1.41
1.02
1.26
1.30
0.99
0.85
0.72
1.02
0.94
1.26

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

Under Valued

Life Assurance
Stock
AVIVA
C HESNARA
LEGAL & GENERAL
OLD MUTUAL
PRUDENTIAL
ST.JAMES'S PLAC E

Price 12M Lo
311.10 275.30
180.25 161.75
121.80
89.80
148.20
98.47
757.00 509.00
330.00 294.00

12M Hi
447.10
255.00
135.00
165.31
797.50
376.00

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral

Price 12M Lo
178.00 116.17
106.00
91.25
701.50 618.50
32.50
30.50
416.50 343.40
828.00 522.50
415.00 313.90
228.90 157.70
84.35
51.65
5.85
4.11
1161.00 1038.00
44.75
41.50
345.00 198.25
30.02
26.21
112.25
76.25
76.50
68.50
32.50
30.75
596.50 416.00
98.00
78.50
840.50 578.00
3.55
3.35

12M Hi
187.40
138.00
850.00
56.25
505.50
828.00
451.00
255.30
89.90
8.00
1255.00
67.00
357.50
38.16
163.00
102.25
54.25
641.50
151.00
880.00
11.00

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Page 9 of 15

Beta
1.26
0.58
1.67
1.66
1.72
0.81

LT Rec
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Neutral
Strong Buy

Target
146
136
650
-67
493
598
312
182
94
68
1589
88
164
8
28
231
373
1724
116
869
52

Beta
1.31
0.51
0.61
1.04
1.09
1.05
1.52
1.42
1.52
1.46
0.66
0.86
0.35
0.51
0.81
1.45
1.57
1.30
0.86
1.29
1.32

Over Valued

Mining
Stock
ANGLO AMERIC AN
ANGLO PAC IFIC GROUP
ANTOFAGASTA
BHP BILLITON
LONMIN
RANDGOLD RESOURC ES
RIO TINTO
UK C OAL
VEDANTA RESOURC ES
XSTRATA

Target
419
182
89
158
359
138

Over Valued

Media & Entertainment

Stock
AEGIS GROUP
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
BRITISH SKY BC AST.GROUP
C ENTAUR MEDIA
DAILY MAIL 'A'
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
INFORMA
ITE GROUP
ITV
JOHNSTON PRESS
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS
STV GROUP
ST.IVES
TRINITY MIRROR
UBM
WILMINGTON GROUP
WPP
YELL GROUP

04 May 2012

Price
2375.00
307.00
1159.00
2017.50
1053.00
5350.00
3439.00
20.00
1206.00
1169.00

12M Lo
2138.50
237.90
900.50
1667.00
941.00
4580.00
2712.50
12.50
928.00
764.00

12M Hi
3181.00
340.00
1491.00
2521.50
1601.00
7565.00
4595.00
47.00
2220.00
1448.00

www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell

Target
3120
296
1036
3852
704
3489
3131
-55
3892
957

Intelligent Analysis Limited

Beta
1.75
0.95
1.38
1.40
1.92
0.33
1.42
0.94
2.10
1.78

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

Under Valued

Oil & Gas

Stock
BG GROUP
BP
C AIRN ENERGY
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
MELROSE RESOURC ES
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTC H SHELL A(LON)
ROYAL DUTC H SHELL B
SOC O INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)

04 May 2012

Price
1451.00
433.80
340.30
10.25
936.00
130.50
120.00
380.40
2176.00
2252.50
294.10
1545.00
789.00

12M Lo
1144.00
363.20
291.86
9.00
530.00
120.50
95.25
310.00
1883.50
1890.50
278.00
945.50
469.90

12M Hi
1547.00
504.60
501.41
14.75
968.00
301.50
280.00
485.00
2402.00
2489.00
397.50
1601.00
798.00

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rec
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Neutral

Price 12M Lo
128.00 107.06
342.10 285.00
3603.00 3100.00

12M Hi
148.71
387.90
3660.00

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Price
3.80
2703.00
379.80
458.00
1432.50
3.95
7.80
2027.00
76.00
25.63

12M Lo
3.13
2543.50
236.80
392.50
1205.00
2.88
6.40
1818.00
31.00
18.75

12M Hi
5.35
3194.00
387.70
524.84
1497.00
7.20
9.50
2300.00
87.00
49.00

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Page 10 of 15

Target
118
359
3464

Beta
0.87
0.74
0.34

Price 12M Lo
21.50
21.13
122.50
57.75
1700.00 1298.00
415.00 324.70
255.00 225.00
21.00
16.75
76.95
58.95
467.90 242.90
348.90 214.90
231.75 154.75
87.75
41.50
1550.00 1444.00
288.10 231.70

LT Rec
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Strong Buy

Target
23
7641
253
1932
1188
25
1
1637
78
90

Beta
0.97
0.45
0.73
0.32
0.49
0.61
0.92
0.63
0.70
0.82

Under Valued

Software & Computer Services

Stock
TIMEWEAVE
ANITE
AVEVA GROUP
C OMPUTAC ENTER
KOFAX
INNOVATION GROUP
LOGIC A
MIC RO FOC US INTL.
MISYS
PHOENIX IT GROUP
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP

LT Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Over Valued

Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology

Stock
ARK THERAPEUTIC S GP.
ASTRAZENEC A
BTG
DEC HRA PHARMAC EUTIC ALS
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
OXFORD BIOMEDIC A
PHYTOPHARM
SHIRE
SKYEPHARMA
VERNALIS

Beta
0.70
1.06
1.36
0.86
1.30
1.36
1.14
1.36
0.91
0.92
0.47
1.06
1.36

Fair Value

Personal Care & Household Products

Stock
MC BRIDE
PZ C USSONS
REC KITT BENC KISER GROUP

Target
1237
2454
133
17
481
229
289
315
6650
6632
271
755
814

12M Hi
27.00
129.75
1799.00
490.00
503.50
23.00
144.80
476.70
420.20
262.75
156.63
2109.00
312.40

www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rec
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Neutral
Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Buy

Target
46
67
1017
1258
310
21
157
505
482
530
-62
1946
343

Intelligent Analysis Limited

Beta
0.73
0.84
1.48
1.09
1.11
0.92
1.36
0.75
1.33
0.88
0.48
0.82
0.65

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

Over Valued

Speciality & Other Finance

Stock
ABERDEEN ASSET MAN.
BREWIN DOLPHIN
C AMELLIA
C HARLES STANLEY GROUP
C HARLES TAYLOR C NSL.
C LOSE BROTHERS GROUP
F&C ASSET MANAGEMENT
HELPHIRE GROUP
HENDERSON GROUP
IC AP
INTERMEDIATE C APITAL GP.
INVESTEC
LONDON STOC K EX.GROUP
MAN GROUP
RATHBONE BROTHERS
SC HRODERS
SC HRODERS NV

Page 11 of 15

04 May 2012

Price 12M Lo
12M Hi
283.10 167.80
283.80
167.00 113.70
177.00
9800.00 8800.00 10950.00
292.38 240.00
350.00
134.75 115.63
160.00
755.50 590.00
820.00
67.70
56.05
81.70
1.65
1.36
13.25
115.80
95.05
163.70
376.50 311.60
515.00
261.30 197.90
345.00
356.30 318.40
522.00
1045.00 756.50 1093.00
94.75
92.55
259.60
1351.00 977.00 1351.00
1421.00 1183.00 1872.00
1120.00 970.00 1521.00

www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral

Target
122
102
12952
212
157
281
95
80
56
210
188
86
719
129
1169
1101
1101

Intelligent Analysis Limited

Beta
1.07
0.72
0.87
0.96
0.70
0.83
0.91
0.67
1.42
1.06
1.65
1.56
1.17
1.27
0.74
1.31
1.30

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

Over Valued

Support Services
Stock
AC AL
AGGREKO
AMEC
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABC OC K INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
UK MAIL GROUP
C APITA
C OMMUNISIS
C OMPASS GROUP
BERENDSEN
DE LA RUE
DIGNITY
DIPLOMA
ELEC TROC OMP.
FILTRONA
G4S
HAYS
HOMESERVE
INTERSERVE
INTERTEK GROUP
JOHNSON SERVIC E GROUP
MANAGEMENT C NSL.GP.
MENZIES (JOHN)
MIC HAEL PAGE INTL.
MITIE GROUP
MOUC HEL GROUP
OFFIC E2OFFIC E
PAYPOINT
PREMIER FARNELL
REGUS
RENTOKIL INITIAL
REXAM
RIC ARDO
ROBERT WALTERS
RPC GROUP
RPS GROUP
SERC O GROUP
SHANKS GROUP
SPEEDY HIRE
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG
WSP GROUP

Price 12M Lo
200.00 166.25
2270.00 1522.00
1128.00 740.50
250.60
99.40
829.00 570.50
332.00 273.00
1047.00 676.50
235.00 192.25
677.00 611.50
35.00
23.75
658.50 512.50
524.50 402.70
996.00 730.00
854.00 727.00
460.00 284.00
233.00 182.20
479.10 296.30
281.10 219.90
91.05
58.85
250.70 214.70
288.40 270.10
2550.00 1744.00
29.00
25.25
37.00
27.75
650.00 445.50
410.00 323.00
295.90 206.80
5.95
4.75
153.75 122.00
646.50 450.00
215.70 144.50
109.80
64.00
87.35
58.20
432.50 299.80
354.00 325.00
254.00 158.25
372.50 300.50
239.40 156.60
554.00 458.00
93.25
90.80
27.50
18.50
75.00
38.50
47.25
36.25
251.50 191.00
50.50
47.00
261.00 160.00

12M Hi
332.63
2316.00
1207.00
271.10
851.00
392.50
1063.00
318.50
767.00
39.75
671.00
568.00
1001.00
866.00
460.50
294.90
484.50
292.10
117.90
532.00
341.25
2605.00
36.00
45.50
652.00
552.50
296.70
78.00
166.50
670.00
301.00
117.50
100.90
438.00
410.00
326.00
393.20
253.00
597.50
130.90
34.00
79.75
52.88
269.00
956.25
353.00

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Page 12 of 15

LT Rec
Strong Buy
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Neutral
Strong Buy
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Buy
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy

Target
321
1255
1090
101
587
717
797
470
564
83
643
931
871
857
402
308
356
283
121
406
754
1435
93
59
1248
324
338
-110
246
628
283
108
27
585
461
331
372
248
585
139
5
-7
54
502
-4435
511

Beta
0.94
1.16
1.01
1.52
0.56
0.73
0.54
0.34
0.43
0.77
0.71
1.02
#NA
0.20
1.01
1.01
1.11
0.58
0.98
0.65
1.35
0.86
1.14
0.68
1.47
1.35
0.61
0.91
0.39
0.72
1.18
1.40
1.30
0.87
0.82
1.25
0.84
1.58
0.57
1.46
1.31
0.63
0.88
0.90
0.77
0.95

Under Valued

Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
C ABLE & WIRELESS C OMMS.
INMARSAT
KC OM GROUP
TELEC OM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP

04 May 2012

Price 12M Lo
213.50 161.00
33.00
30.07
442.10 389.30
73.25
60.50
692.00 472.00
172.00 155.05

12M Hi
232.10
48.92
620.00
84.00
802.00
182.70

www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral

Target
254
127
410
83
495
181

Intelligent Analysis Limited

Beta
0.92
0.65
0.53
1.27
0.04
0.63

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

Under Valued

Transport
Stock
BBA AVIATION
BRAEMAR SHIPPING SVS.
C LARKSON
EASYJET
FIRST GROUP
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
GO-AHEAD GROUP
NATIONAL EXPRESS
NORTHGATE
STAGEC OAC H GROUP
WINC ANTON

Price 12M Lo
200.10 156.00
347.50 282.00
1380.00 1015.00
517.50 302.54
196.80 190.00
545.00 440.50
1133.00 1125.00
221.70 201.60
200.00 190.00
252.50 219.96
47.25
45.00

12M Hi
223.40
490.00
1380.00
519.00
370.20
615.00
1598.00
270.20
341.80
287.40
123.25

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy

Page 13 of 15

LT Rec
Neutral
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Neutral
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy

Target
193
603
1878
491
356
365
1687
223
349
193
118

Beta
1.41
0.94
0.81
0.77
1.08
0.83
0.94
1.28
1.38
0.88
0.85

Under Valued

Utilities
Stock
C ENTRIC A
NATIONAL GRID
PENNON GROUP
SEVERN TRENT
UNITED UTILITIES GROUP

04 May 2012

Price 12M Lo
309.00 278.80
668.00 569.00
736.50 623.50
1667.00 1375.00
620.50 560.00

12M Hi
330.30
669.50
751.00
1720.00
637.00

www.intellisys.uk.com

ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

LT Rec
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Neutral

Target
359
822
671
1544
620

Intelligent Analysis Limited

Beta
0.49
0.55
0.59
0.46
0.58

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

04 May 2012

DISCLAIMER
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Intelligent Analysis Limited.
Intelligent Analysis Limited is a provider of financial research reports that indicate the possible value of
quoted company shares. The information contained within any and all of Intellisys reports are designed to
present an objective assessment of the possible value or relative value of a company and/or an actuarial
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be accurate but Intelligent Analysis Limited does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or reliability of the
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Intellisys research outputs when forming specific investment decisions but should seek advice specific to
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Intelligent Analysis Limited has used reasonable care and skill in compiling the content of this report. No
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Any user distributing information taken from any Intelligent Analysis Limited or Intellisys report and/or the
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No Intellisys report constitutes an offer or invitation to trade, sell, purchase or acquire any shares or other
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entered into for the sale of shares or any other financial instrument in any company.
Intelligent Analysis Limited believes that the information within each and any of its reports to be correct, but
its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is
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Intelligent Analysis Limited (including its Directors, employees and representatives) or a connected person
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imposed by internal rules.

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Intelligent Analysis Limited

Intellisys

Value Indicator UK Main market

04 May 2012

Subscribers, and casual reader, are reminded that the value of shares in any company may go up or down
and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Intelligent Analysis Limited is not registered with or regulated by any financial regulatory authority and does
not offer, provide or purport to provide or offer investment advice.

RISK WARNING Recommendations and Target Prices

Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided solely to
enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you should contact your financial
adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you may not get back
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rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance is not
necessarily a guide to future performance.

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Intelligent Analysis Limited