UNIVERSITY OF TECHNICAL EDUCATION BTEC HND IN BUSINESS (MANAGEMENT)

ASSIGNMENT COVER SHEET

NAME OF STUDENT REGISTRATION NO. UNIT TITLE ASSIGNMENT TITLE ASSIGNMENT NO NAME OF ASSESSOR SUBMISSION DEADLINE

Business Decision Making Forecasting Techniques and Business Decisions 2 of 2

I, __________________________ hereby confirm that this assignment is my own work and not copied or plagiarized from any source. I have referenced the sources from which information is obtained by me for this assignment.

________________________________ Signature

_________________________ Date

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FOR OFFICIAL USE

Assignment Received By: Date:

Unit Outcomes
Outcome Evidence for the criteria Feedback Assessors decision
First Re-

Internal Verification

Produce information in appropriate formats for decision making in an organisational context (3)

Use trend lines in spreadsheet graphs to assist in forecasting for specified business information and thus inform decision making Prepare a business presentation using suitable software and techniques to disseminate information effectively and persuasively

Prepare a formal business report

Review management information systems and suggest appropriate information processing tools for operational, tactical and strategic levels of the organisation

Use softwaregenerated information to make decisions at operational, tactical and strategic levels in an organisation (4)

Review and evaluate inventory control systems in an organisation Prepare a spreadsheet to enable material requirements planning and calculate economic order quantities Prepare a project plan for an activity and determine the critical path Prepare a project plan for an activity and determine the critical path

Outcome

Evidence for the criteria M1 D1

Feedback M2 D2 M3 D3

Assessors decision

Internal Verification

Merit grades awarded Distinction grades awarded

Comments by Assessor - Common Skills

A B C D E F G

Assignment
( ) Well-structured; Reference is done properly / should be done (if any) Overall, youve

Areas for improvement:

ASSESSOR SIGNATURE NAME:.........................................................................................

DATE

(Oral feedback was also provided) STUDENT SIGNATURE NAME :.................................................................................

FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY VERIFIED YES NO DATE NAME : ........................................................................... : ...........................................................................

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VERIFIED BY : ...........................................................................

COMMON SKILLS & COMPETENCIES ASSESSED (indicated by X)

A. MANAGING & DEVELOPING SELF
1. Managing own roles & responsibilities 2. Manage own time in achieving objectives 3. Undertakes personal and career development 4. Transfer skills gained to new/changing situations & contexts

D. MANAGING TASKS & SOLVING PROBLEMS

12. Use information sources 13. Deal with a combination of routine & non-routine tasks 14. Identify & solve routine & non-routine problems

B. WORKING WITH & RELATING TO OTHERS

5. Treat others beliefs and opinions with respect 6. Relate & interact effectively with individuals & groups 7. Work effectively as a team member

E. APPLYING NUMERACY
15. Applying numerical skills and techniques

F. APPLYING TECHNOLOGY
16. Use a range of technological equipment and systems

C. COMMUNICATING
8. Receive and respond to a variety of information 9. Present information in a variety of visual forms 10. Communicate in writing 11. Participate in oral & no-verbal communication

G. APPLYING DESIGN AND CREATIVITY

X X

17. Applying a range of skills and techniques to develop a variety of ideas in the creation of new / modified products, services or situations 18. Use a range of thought processes

SCENARIO Gia Hoang Company Ltd is located HCMC which manufactures and sells range of personal computers in Dong Nai industrial park. Founded by young Vietnamese entrepreneurs in 2005, the company sells their products locally and also exports its products to foreign markets especially in the South East Asia. Gia Hoang Company also provides other services such as consultant, design, run project in IT as well as management, supervisor of IT project various public and private companies in Vietnam. Other business functions are: Constructions works of post, telecommunications, information technology; Implement training software for the units, organizations and businesses. Provide, repair, warranty and maintenance of computer equipment, office machines, electronic information technology, telecommunications networks; Training of electronic information sources and foreign languages and technology transfer; Trade and installation of electronics, refrigeration, electrical appliances, furniture, generators, interior furniture, cameras, digital camcorders; Trading, manufacturing information technology outsourcing; Provide the service pack build networks, integrated data center, communications solutions and IT training packages. Gia Hoang used various types of components in manufacturing personal computers such as processor, hard-disk, main-board, panel interface, DDR memory, and memory cards are outsourced from a number of suppliers in China, Taiwan and South Korea through cargo. Gia Hoang also produces personal computer casing locally in Vietnam. Recent demand of personal computers in Vietnam, on-time delivery to its distributors and customers becomes critical issue for Gia Hoang. Gia Hoang also wanted to create a good reputation and the best company and building effective solutions and technology applications related to IT and Services. Gia Hoang also planned to make further management decisions related to following areas:
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1. Forecasting Techniques Ms Tram is Production Director of the company and you are working as an assistant production manager under her supervision. Ms Tram needs to inform the production department about the number of personal computers to be produced in upcoming budget year, 2011, so that the plant can produce necessary outputs to meet the demand. She has assigned you to provide her sales forecast for 2011. Quarterly sales data, in thousands units, from the past five years are provided as follow:
2006 96 92 54 90 2007 104 96 64 100 2008 108 110 84 104 2009 100 108 74 92 2010 110 100 72 100

Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4

(Units: in 000) Tasks:

Record the above sales figures in a spreadsheet. Using moving-average time series method and appropriate spreadsheet formulae, forecast quarterly sales for 2011 budget year. Tram has requested you to analyse this sales forecast by additive, multiplicative, and least squares regression methods. You are also required to suggest her accuracy of above three methods. (3 b) You are required to prepare a business presentation material using suitable software to disseminate information to Ms Tram and the management team. Apply suitable presentation techniques for an effective and persuasive business presentation. (Attach your presentation material at the end of the your report) (3 c) Prepare a business report to Tram, summarizing sales forecasts for 2011 using the three methods mention above. Include your comments and suggestions for further business decision making process. (3 d)

2. Management Information Systems While Gia Hoang is expanding its business entire Vietnam and also establishing chain of stores in major cities, there is an urgent need for effective cooperation among business departments within the firm. Gia Hoang employees needs to share various information such as customer information, sales orders, invoices, delivery schedules, inventory of raw material and finished products, labour requirement and many others across departments. At present, all the above information is shared among departments i.e. production, marketing, finance, distribution and logistics, after sales services using paperbased memorandums and reports. The same methods are used for reporting from operations and tactical management to strategic management. At present, Gia Hoang office staff using Local Area Network (LAN) to communicate among departments. However, LAN is being used merely for printing and sending emails. Data for each department are kept separately on their respective personal computers (PCs). Delivering purchase orders to suppliers and invoices to customers

are done traditionally by fax or postal service. There is a lack of utilizing appropriate Management Information Systems within Gia Hoang as well as with external parties. Tasks: Considering both internal and external information required for business decision making process, suggest appropriate information systems and tools for three levels of management and all departments at Gia Hoang. (4a) 3. Inventory Control
Currently Gia Hoang Company facing challenges to control inventory related to various components bought for their computer assembly. The most of the components used in PC assembly are imported and inventory needs to be controlled effectively to optimize the operation cost. It is estimated that annual demand for PCs will be 360,000 units. Each PC is assembled with single hard-disk, model - A in ABC classification system. It cost Gia Hoang $1,200 to place an order to China hard-disk supplier, Western Digital. Currently, Gia Hoang orders 8,000 units of hard-disks per order and purchase price for a hard-disk is $150. The holding cost of each unit is assumed to be 10% of purchase price. After a negotiation with Western Digital, agreed to supply the following volume with discount terms:
Order band 4,000 units or less 4,001 - 8,000 8,001 units or more Unit Price ($) 150 140 130

Suggest the following inventory control issues to production department director: Tasks:

You are required to determine Economic Order Quantity, total cost and order cycle time. GIa Hoang production plant is operating 315 days in a year. You are also required to review and evaluate inventory control systems and prepare a spreadsheet to assist in finding optimized order size for the discounted price range provided by Western Digital. Provide your recommendation and the best course of action to Gia Hoang. (4b, c)

4. Material Requirements Planning

The following is product structure tree of a PC assembly: Product Structure of Personal Computer (PC)

Personal Computer

Case Assembly (1)

Main Board Assembly (1)

Hard Disk (1)

DVD Drive Connector (1) (2)

Case (1)

Power Supply (1)

Screws (4)

Main Board (1)

Memory (2)

Processor (2)

Gia Hoang has just received an order of 1200 PCs from Indonesia for upcoming PC Fair promotions, which has to be shipped in week 8. You are assigned to assist production department director on material requirement planning. The following information is provided from production department.
Component PC (End item) Case Assembly Case Power supply Screw (4) Mainboard Assembly Mainboard Memory (2) Processor (2) Hard-disk DVD Drive Connector (2) Lead Time (weeks) 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 1 1 On-hand Inventory 100 60 200 50 60 50 Lot size L4L L4L L4L L4L MULTI (1,000) L4L L4L L4L L4L L4L L4L MULTI (500) Scheduled Receipt

40 in week 1

20 in week 1

Tasks: Based on product structure and information provided above, prepare a Material Requirement Planning (MRP) for all components using a spreadsheet. (4b, c)
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5. Project Management Plan Gia Hoang Company is planning to purchase new machinery from Germany for PCcase assembly process at its assembly line. You are required to assist production department director for the project planning. The following activities need to be undertaken for the above project.
Activity
A B C D E F G H I J K L

Description
Get quotation Visit Supplier factory and product demonstration Negotiate price, terms and conditions Make purchase decision Sign purchase contract Send engineers for training Machine delivery Install machinery Trial run and testing Fine-tuning Final installation Operators Training

Immediate Predecessor(s)
A, B C D E E, F G H H I, J K

Duration (Weeks)
4 6 4 2 2 10 4 4 2 2 2 8

Tasks: Construct a network diagram and identify expected completion time a critical path. Construct a Gantt chart for above project using appropriate software for decision making purpose for the management. (4d)

6. Investment Appraisal Techniques

Gia Hoang is considering investment in new machinery and equipment for its production and assembly line. The supplier from Germany has proposed three options, Orient, Trendy, and Delux - each robot will have expected life of 5 years. The cost of capital is presumed to be 15% and details of each project are provided below:
Orient Initial Cost Expected Cash Flow: End of Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 $260,000 60,000 80,000 90,000 110,000 140,000 Project Trendy $300,000 100,000 90,000 100,000 80,000 70,000 Delux $320,000 120,000 140,000 80,000 120,000 110,000

Tasks: Using NPV and IRR methods, evaluate the feasibility of proposed investment projects. Provide your analysis and recommendations to the management for a suitable robot machine. (4d)

Note: Write a report which must include the following:

Demonstrate all the tasks and tested assessment criteria in the assignment Use appropriate application software such as spread sheets, presentation, and word-processing packages; If suitable use appropriate project management software would also be useful; Start each task an appropriate headings and sub-headings; Have well-summarized findings of the investigation. Include conclusions and recommendations against each tasks; You must be submitted as hard copies and in electronic form (CD) for checking.

Grading Pass is achieved by meeting all the requirements defined in the assessment criteria. (Refer page 2 of the assignment brief) Merit Select/design and apply appropriate methods/techniques (M2)

Characteristics / Possible Evidence the design of techniques justified, a range of sources of information used and the selection of methods and techniques have been justified for the forecasting and MRP for the given organisation. Present and communicate appropriate findings (M3)

Characteristics / Possible Evidence report shows a logical structure with clearly presented data and explained sections related to each tasks set in this brief. Use appropriate tables, charts, diagrams widely. Distinction Take responsibility for managing and organizing activities (D2)

Characteristics / Possible Evidence Ability to show with evidence the areas of substantial activities have been planned, managed and organised and independence demonstrated in the collection and analysis of data based on the chosen business facilities. Demonstrate convergent, lateral and creative thinking (D3)

Characteristic / Possible Evidence - The generation of ideas with systematic approach and decisions taken related to sales forecasting, appropriate information processing in the organisation, and review inventory control system. Common Skills Grading To achieve a Pass grade a student must, show a vary methods of presentation, legible and neat written of work, correctly identified skills needed for numerical application as well as use a range of technological equipment to aid problem solving. To achieve a Merit grade a student must, show clear and accurate presentation, legible and neatly written work as well as identify skills needed for numerical application and you are able to recognize the advantages to be geared from using such technology. To achieve a Distinction grade a student must, show a outstanding quality of presentation, legible, clear, neatly structured work as well as apply numerical skills and techniques to draw valid conclusions and you are confidence to use a range of technological equipment to find best solution.

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PRESENTATION
1.

The assignment should have a cover page that includes the assignment title, assignment number, course title, module title, Lecturer/tutor name and students name. Attach all the pages of assignment brief/cover sheet with your report and leave them blank for official use.

2. Ensure that authenticity declaration has been signed. 3. This is an individual assignment. 4. Content sheet with a list of all headings and page numbers. 5. A fully typed up professionally presented report document. Use 12 point Arial or Times New Roman script.
6.

Your assignment should be word-processed. Charts, tables, graphs are not included in the word count. A CD should be included with references and accompanying notes.

7. Use the Harvard referencing system. 8. Exhibits/appendices are outside this limit. 9. The assignment should be not contain a bibliography but should contain a list of any references used in the assignment. NOTES TO STUDENTS FOR SUMMISSION Check carefully the submission date and the instructions given with the assignment. Late assignments will not be accepted. Ensure that you give yourself enough time to complete the assignment by the due date. Do not leave things such as printing to the last minute excuses of this nature will not be accepted for failure to hand-in the work on time. You must take responsibility for managing your own time effectively. If you are unable to hand in your assignment on time and have valid reasons such as illness, you may apply (in writing) for an extension. Failure to achieve a PASS grade will results in a REFERRAL grade being given. Take great care that if you use other peoples work or ideas in your assignment, you properly reference them in your text and any bibliography. NOTE: If you are caught plagiarizing, you could have your grade reduced to zero, or at worst, you could be excluded from the course.

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