Floods and Flood Management Introduction A flood is a hydrological event characterised by high discharges and/or water levels that

can lead to inundation of land adjacent to streams, rivers, lakes, wetlands and other water bodies. Flood events are caused and/or exacerbated by intense of long-lasting rainfall, snowmelt, failure of a dam or embankment system, earthquakes, landslides, ice jams, high tides, storm surges and by human activities, including the operation of flood control systems. It is reported that flood disasters account for about a third of all natural disasters (by number and economic losses). In addition, they are responsible for over half of the deaths associated with all such disasters. What is more, there is the trend of an increasing number of deaths being due to floods. This information is reflected in the attention given to floods by the international media. Every year we are made aware of serious floods that lead to significant loss of life in one part of the world or another. In recent years there have been catastrophic floods in Bangladesh (1997), China(1998), Ecuador(1997), Mozambique(1997), USA(1993), Poland (2000), Czech Republic (2001), to name but a few countries.
Major historical floods

Date 1421 1530 1642 1887 1900 1911 1931 1935

Location Holland Holland China Yellow River China Galveston Texas, USA Yangtze River, China Yangtze River, China Yangtze River, China

Deaths 100,000 400,000 300,000 900,000 5,000 100,000 145,000 142,000

Most countries in the world experience floods and flooding, even if such events are rare in some arid climates. As such they bring the risk of loss of life. Unlike other catastrophic natural events such as earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, avalanches, floods are much more widely distributed, and therefore there is a huge experience around the world of learning how to live with floods. The Dutch claim to have moulded their landscape in order to deal with excess water. With much of their country below sea-level, they have learned by bitter experience how to manage the vagaries of floods. Climate change however, poses a new threat that they are having to face in innovative ways. Flood risk The intermittent, infrequent occurrence of major floods means that they are perceived as threats to society, and therefore have associated with them a number of risks. One way of

viewing the nature of risk is to adopt the source-pathway-receptor model. This views the source of the risk (rainfall) as being beyond control, whereas the pathway (topography and nature of the land surface and the streams) can in some senses be managed. However, it is the receptor (people and property) that can be controlled the most. Assessing risk involves the identification of the hazards associated with the issue at risk. In particular, this means identifying what could cause harm or damage a particular population, and then assessing the likelihood that harm will actually be experienced and the corresponding consequences. Thus the risk of flooding for a particular community or enterprise consists of The probability of a flood hazard in the area The vulnerability of the area to undesirable consequences and economic loss from floods It is customary to identify the severity of a flood in terms of its average return period of occurrence, for example, a flood with a 1 in a 100 year return period Climate change The apparent increase in the severity of flooding appears to indicate that there are changes taking place in the earths climate. One such trend is that the temperature is increasing, especially in the higher latitudes. Thermal expansion (and to a lesser extent the melting of land-ice) is expected to lead to an increase in the mean sea surface level. Assuming a mean temperature rise of 3C (from an approximate global average of about 15C) then there will be an intensified hydrological cycle leading to a 10% increase in global precipitation (from about 1000 mm global average to about 1100 mm). This is due to two primary factors: an increase in CO2 concentration and an increase in the average temperature. The latent heat (=evaporation) increases by about 10% leading to a corresponding increase in precipitation. Generation of floods Floods are a natural part of the hydrological cycle. Floods are generated in most circumstances by prolonged and intense rainfall. A proportion of the rainfall soaks into the ground, infiltrating down to the local water table or is eventually lost through evapotranspiration. The remainder finds its way into streams and river channels as overland flow or through groundwater. This is termed runoff. The overland flow generally contributes to what is called the fast or direct runoff. As a proportion of the total runoff, the fast component depends on the nature of the geology of the catchment and the degree of saturation of the ground surface. Normally the proportion of the total runoff during a severe storm will be between 0.2 and 0.45. If, however, the catchment is already very wet before the start of the storm, infiltration may be limited and the proportion can rise to be as high as 0.7. The flow in the river resulting from a storm event will vary according to the spatial and temporal pattern of the rainfall and the preceding rainfall. Therefore, there will not necessarily be a direct correspondence between the frequency of the rainfall and the frequency of the runoff. This makes the analysis of design rainfall events corresponding to a certain return frequency of flood events complicated.

Estimation of flood discharges Estimation of flood discharges is done in one of several ways: Empirical formulae: The best known of the empirical formulae is the Rational Method, which has been particularly successful in the area of urban drainage. Frequency analysis: Frequency analysis is essentially a matter of fitting a suitable probability distribution to the flood data, in particular, to extrapolate to the low frequency range of occurrence. The reliability of these techniques is dependent on sufficient length and completeness for the historical flood data records. Regional flood analysis: In a regional flood analysis the data within the region is pooled. Normally, this is done by first estimating the flood distribution and its shape parameters (e.g. a design unit hydrograph), estimating the parameters based on observable physical characteristics of the catchments (area, stream length, etc), and finally determining the mean annual flood using appropriate design rainfall for the region. Probable maximum flood (PMF) methods: An estimate of the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) is important for major structures at risk, including dam spillways, nuclear power stations and major bridges. Conceptual modelling: The use of conceptual modelling based on knowledge of explicit soil moisture accounting is probably one of the most widely used approaches for flood analysis. FLOOD MANAGEMENT Generally there are three major ways that societies have attempted to manage floods: Structural measures: land drainage modification, reservoirs, embankments, diversions, platforms, polders Non-structural measures: regulations, flood defence, flood insurance Do nothing: learn to live with floods The EC Fourth Framework Programme concerted action RIBAMOD has developed a set of principles for the holistic management of floods at the basin scale. It includes Pre-flood activities: Flood risk management for all causes of flooding Disaster contingency planning to establish evacuation routes, critical decision thresholds, public service and infrastructure requirements for emergency operations etc Construction of flood defence infrastructure, both physical defences and implementation of forecasting and warning systems Maintenance of flood defence infrastructure Land-use planning and management within the whole catchment Discouragement of inappropriate development within flood plains Public communication and education of flood risk and actions to take in a flood emergency Operational flood management:

 Detection of the likelihood of a flood forming (hydro-meteorology) Forecasting of future river flow conditions from the hydro-meteorological observations Warning issued to the appropriate authorities and the public on the extent, severity and timing of the flood Response to the emergency by the public and the authorities The post-flood activities may include Relief for the immediate needs of those affected by the disaster Reconstruction of damaged buildings, infrastructure and flood defences Recover and regeneration of the environment and the economic activities in the flooded area Review of the flood management activities to improve the process and planning for future events in the area affected and more generally, elsewhere REFERENCES There are many references that can provide a good background to the whole subject of flood management. I have found the following useful in preparing this course: Cheng, X. T. (2002) Changes of flood control situation and adjustments of flood management strategies in China. Proceedings of the 2nd International Symposium on Flood Defence, Wu et al. (eds), Beijing, China, Science Press New York Ltd., pp 98106. Falconer, R. A. and Harpin, R. (2002) Catchment management: a UK perspective and experience. Proceedings of the 2nd International Symposium on Flood Defence, Wu et al. (eds), Beijing, China, Science Press New York Ltd., pp 48-59. Knight, D. W., and Samuels, P. G. (Eds) (2003) River Basin Modelling for Flood Risk Mitigation. Proceedings of an EU Advanced Study Course on River Basin Management, Birmingham, Oct 2002. Marsalek, J., Watt, W. Ed, Zeman, E. and Sieker, F. (Eds) (2000) Flood Issues in Contemporary Water management. Proceedings of a NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Coping with Flash Floods: Lessons Learned from Recent Experience, Malenovice, Czech Republic, May 1999. Samuels, P. G. (2003) The European perspective and research on flooding. Proceedings of an EU Advanced Study Course on River Basin Management, Knight D. W. and Samuels, P. G. (eds), Birmingham, Oct 2002.. Stokkom, H T C van and Smits, A J M (2002) Flood defence in the Netherlands: a new era, a new approach. Proceedings of the 2nd International Symposium on Flood Defence, Wu et al. (eds), Beijing, China, Science Press New York Ltd., pp 34-47. Wu, B., Wang, Z-Y, Wang, G., Huang, G. G. H., Fang, H, and Huang, J. (2002) Proceedings of the 2nd International Symposium on Flood Defence, Wu et al. (eds), Beijing, China, Science Press New York Ltd.