Problem Solving

ENGR 2140
Problem Solving, Modelling

and Simulation
Fall 2008
Matthew H. Kaye
Assistant Professor
Faculty of Energy Systems and Nuclear Science
matthew.kaye1@mycampus.uoit.ca
Introduction
Objectives
Introduction to the course and
instructor
Expectations
Attendance
Assignments
Project
Quizzes
Final
Structure & milestones

First and Foremost
READ THE SYLLABUS
Class attendance
Missed deadlines
Special requests for time changes
affecting course delivery
Academic integrity
Protection of privacy
Turnitin.com
REACH office
Assignment and Report Submission:
Neatness and Form
Course Structure
Lectures
There is one, 2 hour lecture per week
Problem solving modeling and simulation material
will be covered
Tutorials
There is one, 2 hour tutorial per week
Solving problems with MATLAB will be covered

Attendance in class and tutorial is at the
students discretion. Students are
responsible for the material presented in
both lectures and tutorials.

Course Topics (tentative)
Class Date Topic
1 9 Sept Introduction to Problem Solving, Modeling and Simulation
2 16 Sept Effective Problem Solvers
3 23 Sept Problem Solving Heuristic; Step 1 Problem Definition
4 30 Sept Step 2 Generating Solutions
5 7 Oct Step 3 Deciding Course of Action, KT-PA-DA-PPA
6 14 Oct Quiz 1; Problem Solving & MATLAB
7 21 Oct Step 4 - Implementation
8 28 Oct Introduction to Simulation and Modeling Processes
9 4 Nov Simulation and Modeling I
10 11 Nov Simulation and Modeling II
11 18 Nov Quiz 2; Simulation and Modeling III
12 25 Nov Simulation and Modeling IV
13 2 Dec Step 5 Solution Evaluation & Wrap-up
Tutorial Topics (tentative)
Class Date Topic
1 9/10 Sept Introduction to MatLab
2 16/17 Sept Scalars, arrays, and plotting
3 23/24 Sept MatLab functions I
4 30 Sept/1 Oct MatLab functions II
5 7/8 Oct Review for Midterm and MatLab functions III
6 14/15 Oct Simple modeling and simulation in MatLab I
7 21/22 Oct Simple modeling and simulation in MatLab II
8 28/29 Oct Simple modeling and simulation in MatLab III
9 4/5 Nov Solutions to linear systems I
10 11/12 Nov Solutions to linear systems II
11 18/19 Nov Interpolation and curve fitting
12 25/26 Nov Numerical differentiation & integration
13 2/3 Dec Review for Final
Assessment
Assignments
There will an assignment
due about every 2 weeks
Assignments will test your
knowledge of both the
class AND tutorial material
Quizzes (2)
In lieu of a mid-term,
there will be 2 quizzes
Final Exam
Assessment (cont)
Group Problem Solving
Within the first 2 weeks of
classes, students must form
and/or join a group
No less than 3 or more than 4
students per group
Groups will have the opportunity
to use their problem solving and
analytical skills directed
towards a energy/nuclear-type
scenario (that I will give you)
Grade Breakdown
Assignments (approximately 5-6 total) 20%
Group problem solving 15%
Quizzes (2 @ 15% each) 30%
Final exam 35%
Total 100%
Expectations
Students are expected
to hand in original and
individual work, unless
otherwise instructed.
Students are
responsible for the
course material, and
programming solutions
to problems in
MATLAB.
Delivery
The course material will be
delivered via lectures
Course notes, assignments, etc
will be available on WebCT
Important Milestones
23 September
Project Groups formed
October & November
Project Agendas and Minutes
14 October 2007
Quiz 1 (in class)
18 November
Quiz 2 (in class)
2 December
Projects due
2 December
Final class in ENGR2140
Class 1 Problem Solving
Introduction
Definitions
Problem Solving
The application of accumulated knowledge
and experience to arrive at a solution.
Modelling
Using a set of assumptions and
approximations to investigate how a
system works.
Simulation
Imitating or mimicking real systems
(usually using computer modelling).
What is Problem Solving?
Something you do every day!
So, why are you here???
You are here to hone your skills in
problem solving by practicing
techniques and tools.
One of the primary obstacles to
overcome is learning to solve the
real, and not the perceived,
problem.
Perception versus Reality
It is not uncommon for scientists
and engineers to fall into the trap
of solving the WRONG PROBLEM!
This pitfall can often occur when
you are given a problem to solve
and do not question the validity of
the request.
Sometimes the problem is posed by
Non-Technical Personnel!
Case 1: Air Disaster
Eastern Airlines Lockheed L-1011
Tristar on flight from NY to Miami,
29 December 1972.
Crew gets indication that nose
wheel is not down and locked.
Flight engineer goes below in
attempt to verify gear position.
Pilots place aircraft on autopilot at
2000 feet to confer with flight
engineer.
The Lockheed L-1011 was
the first of the wide-body
jumbo-jets
Pilot bumps control column, which
disengages autopilot.
Aircraft begins shallow descent.
First officer also gets pre-occupied
with indication, does not notice
altitude winding down (slowly).
Aircraft crashes in Florida
everglades.
77 of the 176 passengers and crew
survived the accident
Mainly due to the shallow angle of
descent and soft ground.
From: Air Disaster, Volume 1, by MacArthur Job, 1996.
The Analysis
The perceived problem the crew
faced was verifying that the nose
gear was down and locked.
The real problem to this (and
every) crew was how can we safely
land this aircraft.
Situational awareness was lost.
Faulty indicator light was to blame!
Case 2: Impatience
Shortly after floors were added to
a high rise hotel, guests complained
that the elevators were too slow.
The building manager asked
assistants to Find a way to speed
up the elevators
It was found that it was technically
impossible to increase the elevator
speed.
The manager then
asked Find a
location to install a
second elevator
The costly process
was initiated to add
a second shaft.
Not long after, the
real problem was
discovered
The Real Problem
The real problem
was not the
elevator speed,
but how to keep
the guests minds
off their wait.
This was solved
by adding mirrors
in front of the
elevators
You
look
great!
I
!wonk
Case 3: Harsh Environment
A radiation detector was installed
in a nuclear reactor to measure the
neutron flux at various points.
The detector was found to fail
periodically due to embrittlement of
the detector materials, causing the
detection gas to leak out.
The problem as stated was Find a
detector that can last the life of
the reactor.
Many detectors and detector
materials were tried, but none were
found to be suitable.
The real problem was not finding a
detector to last the life of the
reactor, but How can we reliably
measure neutron flux over the
reactors life?
The solution was to simply replace
the detector periodically prior to
expected failure.
Problem versus Solution
Most often, scientists and
engineers pose the correct problem.
It is sometimes the case, however,
that an incorrect solution is
presented to the problem.
If an incorrect solution
promulgates, the result is often
DISASTER.
Case 1: Chemical Explosion
Nypro factory in Flixborough,
England produced flammable
cyclohexane.
Three units on different levels
connected in series.
Middle unit not operating efficiently.
Problem statement: Remove and
repair the middle unit
Relationship of Units
Unit 1
Unit 2
Unit 3
What Happened?
When Unit 2 was removed for
repairs, a bent makeshift
replacement pipe was used to
connect Units 1 and 3.
A slight rise in pressure and flow
rate between the units caused the
pipe to twist, producing excessive
strain, causing the pipe to rupture,
leaking the vapour and resulting in
an explosion.
Why?
No engineering or design analysis
was conducted on this makeshift
solution.
Only a chalk drawing on the floor of
the plant!
This is a prime example of where
there was a correct problem
statement and a faulty solution
posed to the problem.
Case 2: Floor Collapse
Newly constructed Hyatt Regency in
Kansas City opened in 1980.
Three skywalks were suspended
from the roof.
In 1981 the two lower skywalks
collapsed during an event.
114 people killed under 70 tons of
concrete & girders
A single bolt failure was the cause!

Aftermath
of
Skywalk
Collapse
Original design
As modified
The Problem
Support rod
Support beam
Support bolt
Weak point
This bolt is now
feeling both the floor
it is supporting plus
the floor below
Case 3: X-ray Diagnosis
At an AMA convention
an upper body X-ray
was displayed.
Physicians were asked
to diagnose condition.
Since X-ray focus was
upper torso, almost
every lung ailment was
suggested.
Only one person
discovered the true
ailment
Case 3: X-ray Diagnosis
At an AMA convention
an upper body X-ray
was displayed.
Physicians were asked
to diagnose condition.
Since X-ray focus was
upper torso, almost
every lung ailment was
suggested.
Only one person
discovered the true
ailment
Heuristic
This course will define processes
you can follow to solve real
problems.
We will achieve this goal using a
heuristic.
Heuristic
A problem-solving heuristic is a
systematic approach that assists us
through multiple and alternative
solution paths.

Some concepts I would like
you to consider in this course:
Six Thinking Hats
Metacognition
McMaster 5 Point Strategy
7 Habits of Highly Effective People
Kepner-Tregoe Approach
Problem Based Learning
Modeling and Simulation
A Note about Discussions:
Instead of argumentative
discussion, I would like you to
explore an alternative.
In fact, the alternative I will
suggest will be extremely useful in
all aspects of the 5 point strategy
Especially generating solutions and
decision analysis
I want you to consider Six Thinking
Hats
Six Thinking Hats
Dr. Edward deBono
Expert in non-
classical thinking
First postulated
neural networks
Expert in teaching
thinking as a skill

More later
Administrative
Assignment 1 will be posted by the
end of the week (WebCT willing!)
Due Oct. 3 via WebCT
You should be organizing your
project groups send me the names
of the individuals in a group
viaWebCT
Administrative (cont)
Recall there is a group project that
will be assigned.
Start thinking about your groups (3-4
is a nice number, 57/3=19; 57/4~15)
I will want a list of groups and group
members by 23 September
I will be looking for you to develop
both Gantt charts and flowcharts
Gantt Chart (MS Project)
Explosives Detectors Sources Historical Weather Historical Events Health Effects
Backbone (Visual Basic or other)
Release
Mechanisms
Models
Probability
and Risk
Evaluation
Consequence
Analysis
M
o
d
e
l

M
a
n
a
g
e
r

L
a
y
e
r
GUI
Queries
Reports
System
Administration
External
Resources
e.g. Real-time
weather
Flow Diagram MS Visio
What we covered last class
Introductions
Objectives and expectations
Course assessment
Introduction to problem solving
Solving the REAL problem
Definitions of problem solving,
modelling and simulation
Some case studies

Class 2 Effective
(& ineffective) Problem Solvers
Question

What is the energy released
from the decay of a
235
U
atom?
Alpha Decay
Th He U
231
90
4
2
235
92
+
Alpha Decay
Th He U
231
90
4
2
235
92
+
235.043925 4.002603 231.036299
Atomic
Masses
235.038902
(M) = 0.005023 amu
E = mc
2
= (1.661x10
-27
kg)*(2.999x10
8
m/s)
2
= 1.493x10
-10
kg m
2
s
2
= 931.5 MeV
amu= 1.661x10
-27
kg
(E)=(M)c
2
= (0.005023 amu) x 931.5 MeV = 4.7 MeV
1 J = 6.242x10
18
eV
amu n 008665 . 1
1
0
amu p 007825 . 1
1
1
Concept: Metacognition
In its most simple definition, it is
thinking about thinking
How do you think?
How do you approach a task?
How do you monitor your understanding?
How do you evaluate progress?
Do you self-question?
How did you approach my question about
alpha decay?
Possible answers:
I know that everything in science
is based upon conservation laws, so
a conservation law should help me
solve this problem
I do not know the answer, but I
know that the chart of the nuclides
shows the relationships between
isotopes and decay products, so I
can start there
Other metacognition
examples:
I know that I am more productive in a
quiet study room compared to a noisy
cafeteria
I know that it takes me more time to
comprehend a science text than a novel
I know that I have difficulty with
mathematical word problems, so I will
answer the computational problems first
and save the word problems until the end.
Advice: Keep a Journal
When you solve a problem, write
down in a thinking journal what the
problem was and how you solved it.
Reflect
Talk (to others or yourself) about
HOW you think. Write it down.
Eventually, you will see patterns
that you can use to help you solve
problems more effectively! This is
metacognition!!!
Problem Solving Skills
Before looking at the heuristic in
detail, it is desirable to explore
some important considerations:
Effective problem solvers
Risk takers
Paradigm shift receptiveness
Paradigm paralysis

The Effective Problem Solver
There are many differences
between effective and ineffective
problem solvers.
You should try to develop the
positive traits of the effective
problem solver.
Characteristic Traits
Characteristic Effective trait Ineffective trait
Attitude Believe problem can be solved Gives up readily

Review the problem several times Assumes solution will develop
Re-describes the problem Unable to re-describe the problem
Questions problem Does not question problem
Creates mental picture Does not visualize
Actions
Does not jump to conclusions Jumps to conclusions

Accuracy Checks and re-checks solution Does not check

Subdivides problem Inability to subdivide problem
Selects starting point Does not know when to start
Starts with basics Cannot identify key concepts
Uses heuristics Guesses at solutions
Perseveres when stumped Quits
Tries to quantify problem Does not quantify
Solution
Follows progress of solution No schedule

Highly Effective People
Steven Covey
The 7 Habits of
Highly Effective
People, Simon &
Schuster, NY,
1989.
Certain habits that
effective problem
solvers follow to
make them
successful.
HABIT 1: Be proactive
Do not be reactive
Take initiative
Seek new ideas
Ignore negativity
Learn from mistakes
HABIT 2: Look towards the end
Know where you are
Know where you are going
Know what you want
Write a mission statement
HABIT 3: Prioritize
Schedule goals
Ignore unimportant tasks
Focus on important tasks

HABIT 4: Think positive
Seek mutually beneficial
ends
Identify key issues
Make all feel good about a
decision
HABIT 5: Communicate
Learn about the situation
LISTEN-LISTEN-LISTEN
Put on other's shoes
Be willing to adapt
Be logical, not emotional
Be also credible and empathetic
HABIT 6: Synergy
Whole greater than sum of parts
Value people's differences
Be open and honest
Help bring out the best in people
HABIT 7: Renewal
Physically
Mentally
Spiritually
Socially & Emotionally
Risks
To take a risk means to go down an
uncharted path, that has a possible
bad outcome.
People who take risks must develop
a "thick skin" and be able to accept
criticism. The most effective
problem solver will learn something
from criticism.
Fear of Failure
The fear of failure is the greatest
inhibitor to taking risks.
When concerned about a risk:
Outline what the risk is
Ask Why is it important?
Ask What is the worst possible
outcome?
Paradigm
A paradigm is a model.
It represents a set of rules and
boundaries that specify something.
As such, it may be thought of as
the mold for a part.
Paradigm Shift
A paradigm shift is a movement
from one mold to another.
When a paradigm shifts, a new
model and set of rules replaces the
old model and rules
Example: Slide Rule
The slide rule was the
primary computational
tool worldwide until the
electronic calculator
came on the scene.
Overnight, the
electronic calculator
took over from the slide
rule.
This was a paradigm
shift from old to new.
Paradigm Paralysis
Paradigm paralysis
represents a person
or organization who is
frozen at the belief
that what was
successful in the past
will be successful in
the future (even in
the face of significant
change).
Example: Digital Watches
Swiss invented the digital watch,
but believed that since it didnt tick
nobody would want one
They did not protect the invention
with a patent.
Seiko and TI exploited this
invention, and captured significant
market share (Swiss had 80% share
in 1968, and less than 10% today).

Paradigm Pioneers
Paradigm pioneers, on the other
hand, may be thought of as risk
takers, or people/organizations who
may question the status quo.
A paradigm pioneer often has the
intuition to recognize novel ideas.
CONTRAST
Let us now consider a highly
INEFFECTIVE PROBLEM SOLVER
Why?
One of the best ways to learn how to do
something is to study how NOT to do
something.
ALSO
We will look at the most common things that
cause failure in a complex system
BE AWARE when problem solving!
Case Study: Exxon-Valdez
What do we have?
Sea-going vessel
Vessel crew
Location
Navigation
equipment
Navigation
personnel
Weather

We must consider at
least these areas to
understand accident
Exxon-Valdez
Oil transport vessel
All-welded steel hull 1 thick
987 feet long; 166 feet wide; 88
feet high (deck to keel) - longer
than 3 football fields, and wider
than one.
Capacity of 1.48 million barrels of
oil
Fully loaded draft is 64.5 feet
Exxon-Valdez (cont)
Powerplant is 31,650 horsepower
slow-speed diesel engine to single
blade propeller
Screw rotation of 79 rpm for 16 knots
Navigation is Sperry-Rand autopilot
locks to either current heading or pre-
programmed course
capable of controlling speed as well
Exxon-Valdez Crew
Minimum complement 15 (as per
USCG)
Executive crew (4)
Captain; Chief, Second and Third Mate
Maintenance crew (4)
Chief Engineer; First, Second and Third
Engineers
Radio-Electronics (1)
Able-Bodied Seamen (3)
Maintenance Technicians (3)
Prince William Sound
Area is a haven for arctic wildlife,
fishing and tourism
Oil spill would be devastating; hazard
assessment predicted odds: 1 spill in 241
years
1977: Vessel Traffic Service (VTS) to
control traffic in Sound
1000 metre wide traffic lanes; 1500
metre separation between lanes
Radio and radar nets for navigational
control
Vessel Traffic Center (VTC)
Control room with communications
and radar equipment
Originally required watchstanders to
monitor operations (hand plot
positions)
eventually replaced by computers
Deck Watch Officer was required
to oversee safe operations
through staff reductions, eventually
reduced to administrative position
Weather??? Ice!
Ice breaking off the Columbia
Glacier required precision navigation
to avoid
Tanker captains routinely deviated
from the traffic lanes to avoid ice
both crews and VTC personnel were so
accustomed to these deviations, they
became routine
State-approved pilots were required
to navigate in the narrows
Accident Sequence
23 March 1989
00:00 - Exxon-Valdez docks at Port of
Valdez.
04:15 - Cargo loading begins.
19:24 - Loading completed. Most crew
were awake for 20 hours.
20:20 - Harbour pilot boards. Captain not
on board.
20:30 - Captain boards (later, pilot
testifies he smells alcohol on Captains
breath).
Accident Sequence (cont)
23 March 1989 (cont)
21:12 - Vessel casts off under control
of Harbour Pilot.
21:21 - Vessel clears bearth.
21:25 - Third Mate relieves Chief Mate
as watch officer. Chief Mate goes to
quarters.
21:40 - Captain leaves the bridge.
23:24 - Harbour Pilot has navigated
vessel out of port, through narrows and
into outbound lane.
23:24 - Captain returns to bridge and
Harbour Pilot disembarks in pilots vessel.
Captain makes two course adjustments to
steer around ice in the Sound (200
o
heading
followed by 180
o
heading)
23:36 - Third Mate returns to bridge
23:52 - Captain places vessel on
autopilot and autothrottle, and turns the
vessel over to the Third Mate (violating
both federal law and Exxon policy)
23:52 - Captain gives instructions to
Third Mate to return to traffic lanes
when abeam Busby Island and call him to
the bridge.
23:55 - Vessel reached waypoint. Third
Mate gives order for 10
o
right rudder
At this point, the Third Mate has questioned the procedure
of having the vessel on autopilot in confined waters, and
supposedly disengages the system. Neither he nor the
helmsman has confirmed the rudder position.
24 March 1989
00:01 - Third Mate notices that the
vessel is not turning. Orders a 20
o

right turn to compensate. He observes
that they are very close to Bligh reef,
orders hard right, and calls for the
Captain. Exxon-Valdez goes aground.
00:22 - Captain reports event to
Coast Guard VTC.
I think were in serious trouble - exclamation of Third Mate to Captain
Exxon-Valdez Storage Tanks
8 of 11 cargo tanks breached
258,000 barrels of oil leaked (about 10 million gallons
(1/5 of total load)
Consequence
Environmental Catastrophe
thousands of birds, fish and mammals die
from exposure to the spill
local ecosystem is forever changed
Costs
loss of cargo: $3.4 million
repair of vessel: $25 million ($125M new)
spill cleanup (1989): $1.85 billion
civil and criminal litigation: > $1 billion
Final costs estimated to range $15 - $50 billion dollars!
Common Contributors
The Exxon-Valdez accident
illustrates the characteristic
alignment of all of the most common
contributors to complex system
failure.
As for most accidents, a series
of unfavorable events and
non-conservative actions aligned
to create the disaster.
Administrative
Assignment #1
Due Oct 6 (2300) a tiny extension it
will be posted by end of today
New assignment (#2) will be available at
end of this week (Due Oct 16 - 2300)
Form groups!
POST in Discuss Group Projects on
WebCT
Important Milestones
23 September (Today)
Project Groups formed
October & November
Project Agendas and Minutes
21 October 2008
Quiz 1 (in class)
18 November
Quiz 2 (in class)
2 December
Projects due
2 December
Final class in ENGR2140
Postponed 1 week
What we covered last class
Alpha decay
Effective problem solvers
Highly effective people
Risk takers
Paradigm shift
Case study: Exxon-Valdez
Common Contributors
The Exxon-Valdez accident
illustrates the characteristic
alignment of all of the most common
contributors to complex system
failure.
As for most accidents, a series
of unfavorable events and
non-conservative actions aligned
to create the disaster.
Psychological Varieties of Unsafe Acts
From Human Error, James Reason, Cambridge, 1990
Human
Contribution to
the
Breakdown of
Complex Systems
Dynamics of Accident Causation
Swiss Cheese Theory of Complex Failure
Common Failure Modes (19)
Defective night operations
RMS Titanic (11:40 pm), TMI (4:00 am)
Bhopal (9:30 pm), Challenger (11:00 pm)
Chornobyl (1:23 am)
Fatigue
Low light
Marginal experience
Skeletal supervision
Complacency
All can combine
to cause a
catastrophe
Common Modes (cont)
Unfitness for duty
Both Master and Third Mate were unfit
for duty
Captain: alcohol consumption
10 hours after grounding, BAC ~ 0.09 (at time of
grounding estimated BAC ~ 0.20 !)
Third Mate: Lack of rest
Incomplete communications
VTC (Vessel Traffic Centre) did not
routinely monitor vessel location in the
sound.

Common Modes (cont)
Inadequate turnovers
Captain turned the vessel over to a non-
prepared crew member
Ignorance of equipment operating
characteristics
VTC radar operator did not realize a unit
was malfunctioning (used to another
unit)
Third mate did not understand autopilot

Common Modes (cont)
Non-compliance with procedural
requirements
Captain ignored Federal and Exxon alcohol
consumption policies
Federal regulations for on-duty deck officers
require BAC to be < 0.04, and prohibits navigation
officers from consuming within 4 hours.
Captain ignored rest requirements
Federal regulations require all deck officers to
have 6 of previous 12 hours off before leaving
port, and no more than an 8 hour day.
Common Modes (cont)
Failure to monitor equipment status
Neither the Third mate nor Helmsman
monitored the ships heading after the
10
o
right rudder change
Deficient equipment maintenance
Master and slave radar in VTC have
different range selectors; master had
failed circuit card for a long time prior.
Common Modes (cont)
Failure to independently verify critical
tasks
Neither third mate nor the helmsman could
recall monitoring the rudder position
Checklists can be important (aviation)
Sense of invulnerability
Did it before, can do it again
Conditions can deteriorate, but sloppiness
continues (vessel traffic lanes)
Common Modes (cont)
Acceptance of abnormalities
The abnormal is allowed to become normal
Common for vessels to routinely leave the
traffic lanes
Ignorance of warning signs
Sometimes called accident precursors
Just the day before the Exxon-Valdez
grounding, another ship came within one
ship-length of striking the reef.
Common Modes (cont)
Capitulation to production pressure
Captain drove crew hard to load tanker
Used excessive speed in the sound at
night (when other tankers were limiting
their travel to daylight hours)
Inadequate emergency preparedness
Greatest emergency preparedness
deficiency was failure to monitor and
evaluate the ice hazards

Common Modes (cont)
Deficient organizational staffing and
structure
Reduced staffing on vessels (15)
Reduced VTC staffing (2)
Large distance between top and
bottom of Exxon management
greater effort has been placed on replacing
vertical with horizontal management
structures
Common Modes (cont)
Poor leadership
Captain was not in critical place at critical
time
VTC OOD was not required to be on station
Leaders who do not understand the
technology of their facility have difficulty
understanding the problems presented by
the team members, may be unable to
establish credibility with those they lead,
and are subject to poor technical decisions.
Common Modes (cont)
Insufficient management oversight
Exxon management did not adequately
monitor the Captain for alcohol abuse
(he had been through an alcohol
rehabilitation program)
VTC limited supervision contributed to
COs lack of awareness of departing
vessels
During the investigation, the VTC CO stated
that he had no idea that vessels were leaving
the traffic lanes!
Common Modes (cont)
Faulty teamwork
Not only did teamwork fail on the vessel,
it failed at the shipping company and
USCG
Disregard for operating limits
Exxon-Valdez accident was characterized
by a systematic deterioration of
established safe operating boundaries
Review of Common Modes
Defective Night
Operations
Unfit for duty
Incomplete
communications
Inadequate Turnovers
Ignorance of operating
characteristics
Non-compliance with
procedures
Failure to monitor
equipment status
Sense of invulnerability
Acceptance of
abnormalities
Ignorance of warning
signs
Capitulation to production
pressure
Inadequate emergency
preparedness
Deficient staffing
Poor leadership
Insufficient management
oversight
Faulty teamwork
Disregard for operating
limits

INPO Significant Event
Root Cause
Discussion
The Exxon Valdez disaster
graphically shows that poor
decisions and poor problem solving
skills can lead to catastrophe.
It also shows that failure to
discover the root cause of a
problem can lead to catastrophe.
As radiation scientists and nuclear
engineers you have a responsibility
to the public.
Problem Solving Heuristics,
Creativity, Leadership and
Teamwork
Heuristic
Pronunciation: hyu-'ris-tik
Function: adjective
Etymology: German heuristisch, from New Latin
heuristicus, from Greek heuriskein to discover;
akin to Old Irish fo-fair he found
involving or serving as an aid to learning, discovery, or
problem-solving by experimental and especially trial-
and-error methods <heuristic techniques> <a heuristic
assumption>;
also : of or relating to exploratory problem-solving
techniques that utilize self-educating techniques (as the
evaluation of feedback) to improve performance <a
heuristic computer program>

A problem-solving heuristic is a systematic
approach that assists us through multiple and
alternative solution paths.
McMaster 5 Point Strategy
Define the Problem
Generate Solutions
Decide Course of Action
Implement Solution
Evaluate Solution
Strategy
Step 1: Define
Define the real problem
Ask questions
Has the problem been solved before?
Is it worth solving?
What resources (time, money, personnel,
computing) are available to solve this
problem?
Have you collected enough relevant data
to solve this problem?
Step 2: Generate
Alternative solutions
Most popular technique:
BRAINSTORMING
What is possible, and what is not possible
Analogies
Blockbusting
Step 3: Decide
Which alternative to use
Identify what may go wrong
Causes of potential problems
Preventative actions
Last resorts
Step 4:Implement
Plan the activities (Gantt/Flow Charts)
Do it!
Step 5: Evaluate
Look back
Ensure all criteria of the problem
statement have been fulfilled
Has the problem really been solved?
Is solution innovative, new or novel?
A simple application of what is known may
be all that is required
Is the solution ethical, safe and
environmentally responsible?
Creativity
Creativity is crucial in generating solutions
to problems. Creativity cannot be bought;
it must be inspired.
Ways to encourage creativity in a group:
Do not give goals; give directions
Encourage contrary thinking
Be informal and relaxed
Utilize emotion
Promulgate a safe, free speech, working
environment
Encourage accountability over responsibility
Seek input from quiet people
Seek inspiration from non-traditional venues
Leader versus Boss
Characteristics of Leaders and Bosses
A Boss A Leader:
Demands respect Earns respect
Is a taskmaster Is a coach
Is critical Is encouraging
Rules by fear Guides by example
Commands Inspires
Makes work a burden Makes work fun
Punishes mi stakes
whereas
Rewards success

Teamwork
As problems become more complex
and interdisciplinary in nature,
solutions require the input of
various groups of people with
differing areas of expertise.
Concurrent engineering is an
example
For team-based problem solving there are a
number of team dynamics issues that must
be addressed. Some of the problems
encountered by teams are listed below:
Floundering
Overbearing experts
Dominating participants
Reluctant participants
Unquestioned acceptance of opinion
Rush to accomplishment
Attribution of motives to others
Ignoring group member statements
Digression or tangent
Feuding team members
Meetings
Interacting as a team requires
meetings from time to time. It is
extremely important to run an
effective meeting to
Optimize time
Voice problems/concerns
Prevent disillusion with project
Encourage creativity
Verify milestones
Generate a work record
Some considerations with running an
effective meeting are provided as
follows:
First meeting introductions & background
Appoint an effective leader
Prepare and distribute an agenda PRIOR to
meeting
Review prior meeting minutes
Meeting purpose statement
Have meeting materials at hand
Keep discussion focused
Keep discussion on track
Allow Devil's Advocate while limiting
floundering
Take minutes
Draft next meeting agenda and action items
Defining the Problem
Define the Problem
Generate Solutions
Implement Solution
Evaluate Solution
The 8 Steps to
Problem Definition (first 4 steps)
1. Collect and analyze information
and data.
2. Talk with people familiar with the
problem.
3. If possible, view the problem first
hand.
4. Confirm all findings.
Notice anything about
the first 4 steps?
Techniques for Data Collection
Determine where
Problem Originated
Explore the
Problem
Present state
Desired state
Statement
Re-statement
K-T Problem
Analysis
Well
discuss
later
Problem
Definition
Techniques
A. Problem Origin
Who posed the problem?
Can the person who posed the
problem explain how they arrived at
the problem statement?
Are the reasoning and assumptions
valid?
Have you used the first 4 steps in
problem definition yourself??
B. Exploring the Problem
Identify all available
information
Recall or learn
pertinent theories
Collect missing
information
Solve a simplified
version of the
problem (ballpark
answer)
Visualize what is
wrong with current
solution

Brainstorm to guess
the answer
Recall past or related
problems
Describe/sketch a
pathway to the
solution
Collect more data and
information
Using all of the
above, write a
concise statement of
the real problem
It may not be necessary to address all 10 steps
C. Present State
Desired State
Involves writing down what the
present state is, and what the
desired state should be.
It is important that the desired
state statement follows logically
from the present state.
The desired state should not
contain solutions to problems that
are not in the present state.
Duncker Diagram
A tool to assist us in obtaining
solutions that satisfy criteria set
by Present State / Desired State
methods.
The unique feature of the Duncker
Diagram is that it depicts ways to
solve a problem by making it OK
NOT to reach the desired solution.
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General
Solution
OK not to
Achieve Desired
State
Path 1
Path 2
Path 3
Solution
1
Solution
2
Solution
3
Achieve Desired
State
Path 1
Path 2
Path 3
Solution
1
Solution
2
Solution
3
Possible paths to desired state
Solution to implement paths
to desired state
Functional solutions are possible
paths to the desired state, and as
such do not have to be feasible
(can be If only statements).
They say What to do.
Specific solutions describe How to
do it
D. Statement / Re-Statement
Look at a fuzzy or unclear problem
Restate the problem a number of
ways
Important to inject new ideas
Use triggers in restated sentence
Problem Statement Triggers
1. Vary the stress pattern
Place emphasis on different words and
phrases
2. Choose a term that has explicit
definition, and substitute the definition
in place of the word
3. Make an opposite statement
Change positives to negatives
4. Change descriptive words
every to some; always to sometimes;
sometimes to never
5. Express words in the form of an
equation or picture
Example: Shutdown Rods
Problem Statement: Shutdown rods
are never inserted fast enough to
reduce reactor power to safe level.
Try using various trigger
mechanisms to restate the problem
Trigger 1 Stress Pattern
Shutdown rods are never
inserted fast enough to
reduce reactor power to
safe level
safe level
safe level
safe level
safe level
safe level
safe level
safe level
Trigger 2 Definition Replacement
Shutdown rods are never inserted
fast enough to reduce reactor power
to safe level
Pneumatically driven cadmium
cylinders in a stainless steel sleeve
are never triggered and pushed into
the reactor core fast enough to
absorb excess neutrons causing the
critical chain reaction which creates
the thermal power to a power level
that can be controlled passively.
Trigger 3 Opposite Statement
fast enough to reduce reactor
power to safe level
Shutdown rods are always inserted
into the reactor slow enough to
increase reactor power to a
dangerous level
Trigger 4 Change Descriptors
power to safe level
Shutdown rods are sometimes
inserted fast enough to reduce
reactor power to an acceptable
level.
Trigger 5 Words as Pictures
power to safe level
P
o
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Safe
The 8 Steps to
Problem Definition (last 4 steps)
1. Collect and analyze information and data.
2. Talk with people familiar with the problem.
3. If possible, view the problem first hand.
4. Confirm all findings.
5. Determine if the problem should be solved
6. Continue to gather information and search the
literature
7. Form simple hypotheses and quickly test them
8. Brainstorm potential causes and solution
alternatives
5. Should
the
Problem
be
Solved?
Real Problem Defined
Is the problem worth
solving?
Does a suitable solution
already exist?
Can the necessary
resources to solve the
problem be assembled?
Does sufficient time exist to
solve the problem?
Begin generating
alternative solutions
YES
NO
YES
YES
STOP NO
IMPLEMENT IT YES STOP
CHANGE
CONSTRAINT?
NO STOP NO
YES
CHANGE
CONSTRAINT?
NO
YES
STOP NO
Real problem
defined
Is the problem
worth solving?
Does a suitable
solution exist
already?
Can the necessary
resources to solve
the problem be
assembled?
Does sufficient
time exist to solve
the problem?
Begin generating solution alternatives Flowchart using MS Visio
the rest.
6. Continue to gather information
and search the literature
7. Form simple hypotheses and
quickly test them
8. Brainstorm potential causes and
solution alternatives
This part of the first step to the next
phase (solution generation)

Define the Problem
Generate Solutions
Implement Solution
Evaluate Solution
Generating Solutions
NOT Generating Solutions
Prior to discussing solution
strategies, it is important to
recognize what impedes the
generation of solutions.
Usually, these are mental blocks
Mental Blocks
Perseverance is likely the most
notable characteristic of an
effective problem solver
There are many times when mental
blocks hinder your progress towards
generating a solution.
What causes mental blocks?
Causes of Mental Blocks
Narrow problem definition
Treating the symptoms, not the problem
Assuming only 1 correct answer
Stuck on first solution
Stuck on almost working solution
Distracted by irrelevant information (also
called mental dazzle)
Frustration from lack of success
Anxious to finish
Ambiguous problem definition
Nine-Dot Problem
Use only straight lines to connect all the dots.
Nine-Dot Problem
1
Traditional Solution
Nine-Dot Problem
1
2
Nine-Dot Problem
1
2
3
Nine-Dot Problem
1
2
4
3
Nine-Dot Problem
1
2
4
5
3
Nine-Dot Problem
Now draw 4 or fewer lines to connect all the dots.
Think outside the box
Colour outside the lines
Work past self-
imposed constraints
Recognizing Mental Blocks
Perceptual Blocks
Stereotyping
Limiting
Information overload
(saturation)
Emotional Blocks
Fear of risk taking
Fear of chaos
Judging ideas
Lack of challenge
No incubation
Cultural Blocks
non-consideration of
acts that cause
displeasure or disgust
to certain members of
society
Environmental Blocks
Distractions (i.e. cell
phones???)
Intellectual Blocks
Not academically
prepared
Expressive Blocks
communicate

Administrative
Assignment #1
Due Oct 6 (23h00) on WebCT
Assignment #2to be posted tonight!
By end of week
I will have posted the groups on WebCT
Details to follow!
A Little Something
Here is a little something that I
found on the web, by chance
I share it with you
Insert Clip Here
http://www.shell.ca/home/page/ca-
en/society_environment/energy_solu
tions/film/app_accessible_film.html
Questions
1. What did you think?
2. How does what you saw relate to
this course?
3. Does anything about this
promotional video disturb you?
4. Now what do you think?
C. Present State
Desired State
You cant get there from here
Involves writing down what the
present state is, and what the
desired state should be.
It is important that the desired
state statement follows logically or
matches the present state.
The desired state should not
contain solutions to problems that
are not in the present state.
Case Study: WWII Bombers
Many aircraft are shot down. Many
aircraft returning from bombing mission
are riddled with bullet holes in similar
areas.
Perceived problem: Too many planes shot
down.
Instructions given to solve the perceived
problem:
Reinforce the damaged areas with thicker
armor plating
Many
bullets/projectiles
penetrating
aircraft
Fewer planes shot
down
Discussion: This is NOT a match because there are aircraft
that survive with bullet holes. There is not a 1-1 mapping
of addressing the present state with the desired state.
Many
bullets/projectiles
penetrating
aircraft
Fewer bullet holes
Discussion: The states are matched, but the distinction
between present and desired state is not clear. It may take
only a single bullet to down a given aircraft.
Many
bullets/projectiles
penetrating aircraft in
critical and non-
critical areas
Fewer
bullets/projectiles
penetrating critical
areas
Discussion: The two statements now match and the
distinction between them is clear.
NOTE: The original instructions given to solve the
perceived problem would fail. Reinforcing the areas of
returning planes would be futile (since they were clearly
non-critical areas).
Duncker Diagram
A tool to assist us in obtaining
solutions that satisfy criteria set
by Present State / Desired State
methods.
The unique feature of the Duncker
Diagram is that it depicts ways to
solve a problem by making it OK
NOT to reach the desired solution.
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General
Solution
OK not to
Achieve Desired
State
Path 1
Path 2
Path 3
Solution
1
Solution
2
Solution
3
Achieve Desired
State
Path 1
Path 2
Path 3
Solution
1
Solution
2
Solution
3
Possible paths to desired state
Solution to implement paths
to desired state
Functional solutions are possible
paths to the desired state, and as
such do not have the be feasible
(can be If only statements).
They say What to do.
Specific solutions describe How to
do it
Example: Brooding Professor
Dr. K. Humdrum has been teaching for
25 years. He recently came off a 1 year
sabbatical and is dreading his return to
the class because the last few years
have been stressful, and he feels burned
out. He also enjoyed the time he had
just performing research and writing
while living in the South of France.
Dr. Humdrums present state is returning
to teaching, and his desired state is to
not return to teaching.
Analyze with a Duncker Diagram
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General
Solution
Quit
Teaching
Change
jobs
Make it OK
Not to Quit
Teaching
More
Research
Reduce
Stress
Retire
Research
Pursue
VP
Switch
status
Reduce
teaching
load
Change
subjects
Change
schools
Step 2 - Generating Solutions
(cont)
Recognizing Mental Blocks
Perceptual Blocks
Stereotyping
Limiting
Information overload
(saturation)
Emotional Blocks
Fear of risk taking
Fear of chaos
Judging ideas
Lack of challenge
No incubation
Cultural Blocks
non-consideration of
acts that cause
displeasure or disgust
to certain members of
society
Environmental Blocks
Distractions (i.e. cell
phones???)
Intellectual Blocks
Not academically
prepared
Expressive Blocks
communicate

Blockbusting (get rid of block)
Block
Negative attitude
Fear of failure
Following the rules
Over-reliance on
logic
No creativity
Blockbuster
Attitude adjustment
Risk taking
Breaking the rules
Use your
imagination
Creative expression
Improving Creativity
Keep track of your
ideas at all times
Pose new questions to
yourself every day
Keep informed in your
field
Learn about things
outside your specialty
Avoid rigid and set
patterns of doing
things
Be open and receptive
of ideas
Be alert in your
observations
Adopt a risk taking
attitude
Keep (or get) your
sense of humour
Engage in creative
hobbies
Have courage and
self-confidence

Learn to know and
understand yourself
Generating Solutions
There are numerous ways to
generate ideas for solutions:
Brainstorming
Can be group effort (brainstorming) or
individual (brainwriting)
Analogy and Cross-Fertilization
Incubation (put it down, and pick it
up again lateryour brain works on
it in the meantime)

Brainstorming
Why use it?
To generate a high volume of ideas,
free of criticism or judgment
What does it do?
Encourages open thinking
Involvement of all team members
Building on each others creativity
How do you do it?
Structured: each team member gives
ideas in turn
Unstructured: team members give
ideas as they come to mind
Also:
Brainstorming Steps
1. The central brainstorming question is
stated, agreed upon and written down
for everyone.
2. Each team member, in turn, gives an
idea. No idea is ever criticized.
3. As ideas are generated, write each one
in large, visible letters for everyone.
4. Ideas are generated (in turn or
randomly) until each person passes,
indicating that the ideas (or people!) are
exhausted.
5. Review the written list of ideas for
clarity and discard any duplicates
Get ENGR2140
homework in on time
Start assignment
earlier
Copy from other
students
Scour internet for
solutions
Do assignment in
parts
Work in group
Break into
Professors office
Steal assignment
from someone else
Ask another
Professor for
answers
nb: this brainstorming diagram constructed in MS Visio
Cause and Effect Diagram
aka Fishbone Diagram
Why use it?
To display, in increasing detail, all of
the possible causes related to a problem
or condition to discover its root cause.
What does it do?
Enables team to focus on content of
problem (not on history of problem or
differences of team members)
Creates a snapshot of knowledge and
consensus of a team project
Focus the team on causes, not symptoms
How do you use it for cause and
effect?
Write the real problem in a box on the
right of the diagram. Draw a line
extending to the left (backbone).
Brainstorm causes to the problem.
Categorize the causes into several major
categories, listing them along top and
bottom of diagram. Draw lines (ribs)
from the potential solutions to the real
problem backbone.
Place the causes related to each major
category pointing to the rib.
Real Problem
Major category Major category
Real Problem
Real Problem
Primary cause
Primary cause
Primary cause
Primary cause
Primary cause
Primary cause
Primary cause
Primary cause
How do you use it for solution
generation?
Write the real problem in a box on the
right of the diagram. Draw a line
extending to the left (backbone).
Brainstorm potential solutions to the
problem.
Categorize the potential solutions into
several major categories, listing them
along top and bottom of diagram. Draw
lines (ribs) from the potential solutions
to the real problem backbone.
Place the potential solutions related to
each major category pointing to the rib.
Real Problem
Possible solution
Possible solution
Possible solution
Possible solution
Possible solution
Possible solution
Possible solution
Possible solution
nb: cause and effect diagrams made in MS Visio
Example: Test Pond
A nuclear plant has a deep pool within the
plant boundary that they use to store
(non-radioactive) liquids. Chemicals are
used to rid the pool of small foreign
debris.
An unfortunate side effect of the pool is
that sometimes small animals wander in,
and cannot get out. The appearance of
dead animals disturbs plant employees, and
creates foul odors.
In addition, other large objects such as
branches get into the pool and clog the
filters.
Problem: Keep pond clear of large
undesirable objects.
Keep pond clear of
undesirable objects
Retrieval
Equipment
Process Change or
Redesign
Prevention
Use covered
tank instead
Circulate liquid and
Grind up objects
Change liquid properties
So objects sink
Make pond more shallow
to allow wading and escape
Boat
Crane
Helicopter
Mechanical arm
Divide into
smaller ponds
Electric fence
Scarecrow
Add dissolving
catalysts
Acoustic deterrent
Analogy & Cross-Fertilization
Comes from considering and studying areas
outside your area of expertise.
Transferring ideas, rules, laws, facts, and
conventions from one discipline to the next.
For analogies:
State the problem
Generate analogies (this problem is like trying
to)
Solve the analogy, and
Transfer the solution to the problem
Step 3 Deciding Course
of Action
Define the Problem
Generate Solutions
Implement Solution
Evaluate Solution
Once the real problem is
defined, and we have generated
a number of solutions
We need to make some decisions!
Specifically, we need to:
Decide which problem to work on first
Choose the best alternative solution
Decide how to successfully implement
the solution
Kepner-Tregoe (KT) Analysis
The New Rational
Manager
www.kepner-tregoe.com
Dr.s Kepner and
Tregoe: management
experts
Outlines an
organized process
for making essential
decisions
Situation Analysis
(Where are we?)
Problem
Analysis
(PA)
Decision
Analysis
(DA)
Potential
Problem
Analysis
(PPA)
PAST PRESENT FUTURE
What is the fault?
How to correct the
fault?
How to prevent future
faults?
Recall, we mentioned this before?
That is because this approach can
fit into Step 1 (Problem Definition)
at the Problem Analysis (PA)
branch.
We want to develop heuristics to
allow us to decide on what path we
will take.
First step is Situation Analysis
Situation Analysis
If there is only one problem, there
is only one situation.
Many times, more than one problem
surfaces at a time.
Sometimes they are related,
sometimes they are independent.
Kepner-Tregoe (KT) Situation
Analysis (SA) can help us decide
which problem should receive the
highest priority.
1. First, list all problems.
2. Then, each problem is measured
against three criteria:
Timing
How urgent is the problem?
Trend
What is the problems potential for growth?
Impact
How serious is the problem?
3. Each criteria is rated as high (H),
medium (M) or low (L)
4. Finally, we decide which type of
analysis to carry out (PA, DA, PPA)
No. Problem Timing Trend Impact Process
1
2
3
.
.
n
How you do SA:
How to tell you are
having a bad day
No. Problem Timing Trend Impact Process
1 Get dog off leg H H H DA
2 Repair car L L M PA
3 Put out fire H H H DA
4 Save briefcase contents M M H PPA
5 Get to meeting H H L PPA
6 Prepare for tornado M H H DA/PPA
Ranking them by priorities:
1. Get dog off leg
2. Put out fire
3. Prepare for tornado
4. Get to meeting
5. Save briefcase contents
6. Repair car
Pareto Analysis
When it is evident that there is
more than 1 problem to contend
with, Pareto analysis may help you
identify the significant few from the
trivial many.
Originated from Italian Economist
Vilfredo Pareto (1906), who came up
with a mathematical formula for
unequal distribution of wealth, which
stated that 20% of the people own
80% of the wealth
Many others observed this 80/20
phenomena in their own areas of
expertise.
Quality Management pioneer Dr.
Joseph Juran (1940s) came up with
a universal principle as vital few
and trivial manyhowever the name
Pareto Principle stuck.
In anything, a few (20 percent) are
vital, and many (80 percent) are
trivial.
Project Management: 20% (first
and last 10%) of the work consumes
80% of your time and resources
Wholesale: 20% of your stock takes
up 80% of your space
Retail: 20% of your sales staff will
generate 80% of your sales
Group Projects: 20% of your team
members will generate 80% of the
work (!)
How do you do Pareto?
Generate quantitative data on different
problems you have.
Normalize the data to %
Rank the data in descending order
Construct a bar graph of % vs. problem
Calculate the Cumulative %
Draw a line representing the Cumulative %
vs. problem
Draw a line from 80% on the Y axis to
the line graph, and then drop the line
down to the x-axis. This line separates
the important problems from the trivial
problems.

Example: Reactor Trip
A reactor is having a large number of
trips, which are causing problems in
continuity of electrical power service.
You do an analysis of the causes, and
obtain the following data for the last 25
trips
Operator error: 8 times
Malfunctioning flux detectors: 4 times
Intentional trip tests: 3
SCRAM Switch malfunction: 7
Vibration: 3

# % Cum. %
Operator error 8 32% 32%
SCRAM switch malfunction 7 28% 60%
Malfunction flux detector 4 16% 76%
Intentional trip test 3 12% 88%
Vibration 3 12% 100%
Sum 25 100%
Pareto Analysis Table
Sorted descending
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Operator eror SCRAM
switch
malfunction
Malfunction
flux detector
Intentional
trip test
Vibration
More dramatic with more data!
Be sure to check variations!
There may be times when your data is a
function of many variables
For example, you may want to look at reactor
trips as a function of lost $
Perhaps certain types of trips are more costly than
others
You may also want to try to get different
sources for your data in some cases
For examples, if you are plotting a reason for
something happening, there may be a subjective
bias
Operator error may be termed an ergonomics problem
by someone else
Re-Analysis on Cost
Total Cost ($) % Cum. %
Malfunction flux detector 40000 58% 58%
SCRAM switch malfunction 15000 22% 79%
Operator error 10000 14% 94%
Vibration 4000 6% 99%
Intentional trip test 500 1% 100%
Sum 69500 100%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Malfunction
flux detector
SCRAM
switch
malfunction
Operator
error
Vibration Intentional
trip test
The details
Situation Analysis
(Where are we?)
Problem
Analysis
(PA)
Decision
Analysis
(DA)
Potential
Problem
Analysis
(PPA)
PAST PRESENT FUTURE
What is the fault?
How to correct the
fault?
faults?
Problem Analysis (PA)
Effective problem solvers learn how
to make distinctions:
What is the problem, and what is not
the problem?
Where did the problem occur, and
where is everything OK?
When did the problem first occur, and
when was everything OK?
What is the magnitude (or extent) of
the problem?
Troubleshooting
The above type of analysis is a
form of troubleshooting, and is
most useful when the cause of the
problem or fault is not known.
We can set up A KT Problem
Analysis (PA) using a table, much
like we did with the Situation
Analysis (SA)
Four Dimensions of a PA
IS IS NOT DISTINCTION CAUSE
What
Identify: What is the
problem?
What is not the
problem?
What is the distinction
between the is and the
is not?
What is a
possible
cause?
Where
Locate: Where is the
problem
found?
Where is the
problem NOT
found?
What is distinctive
about different
locations?
What is a
possible
cause?
When
Timing: When does the
problem
occur?
When does the
problem NOT
occur?
What is distinctive
about different times?
What is a
possible
cause?
When was it
first
observed?
When was it
LAST observed?
What is the distinction
between these
observations?
What is a
possible
cause?
Extent
Magnitude: How far does
the problem
extend?
How localized is
the problem?
What is the
distinction?
What is a
possible
cause?
How many
units are
affected?
How many units
are not
affected?
What is the
distinction?
What is a
possible
cause?
How much of
any one unit is
affected?
How much of any
one unit is NOT
affected?
What is the distinction What is a
possible
cause?
Situation Analysis
(Where are we?)
Problem
Analysis
(PA)
Decision
Analysis
(DA)
Potential
Problem
Analysis
(PPA)
PAST PRESENT FUTURE
What is the fault?
How to correct the
fault?
faults?
Decision Analysis (DA)
The fundamental question is how to
choose the BEST solution given a
number of alternatives
For example, our Duncker diagrams
allow us to generate a number of
different alternatives to a
solutionhow do we decide which is
best (for us, the company, the
problem, the environment, the
worldetc)
Musts and Wants
We have to specify the objectives
of the decision and divide these
objectives into two categories:
1.MUST have
2.WANT to have
The MUSTS are mandatory and to
achieve a successful solution, they
have to be measurable

Musts: Go / No Go
Next we must evaluate each
alternative solution against each of
the musts.
If the alternative satisfies all the
musts, it is a Go
If it does not satisfy any one of
the musts, it is a No Go
If you get a No Go, this
alternative is dropped from further
consideration
Wants: Weights
After the Musts list, we address
the Wants.
The Wants are desirable, but not
mandatory, to our desired state.
How do we evaluate?
List each want, and assign each a
weight from 1-10
A rating of 1 means that is not an overly
important want
A rating of 10 means is a very desirable
want
Ratings
All of the wants must be rated, on a
scale from 0-10.
A rating of 0 means that the solution
does not address the want at all
A rating of 10 means that it fully
satisfies the want.
The score is the rating multiplied by
the weight.
Finally, the highest score wins, and
that is your solution!
Example: Decontamination Spray
You are working as
a health physicist
in a nuclear
installation, and
you are looking for
a replacement
water sprayer that
is used to
decontaminate
components.

Choices
The industry standard decontamination
sprayer is the NoNuke model. Although
this sprayer performs adequately, its
manufacturer is located in Europe,
making servicing slow and difficult. In
addition, since it dominates the market,
its price is significantly inflated.
Two Canadian companies are eager to
enter the market with their products:
RadAway and DeconWash.
Decision Statement
Choose a decontamination sprayer.
The best sprayers available are the
NoNuke, the RadAway and the
DeconWash.

Acceptable flow control
Acceptable spray pattern
Wants
Ease of Service
Low cost
Durability
Experience required to use
Ease of service is more important than low cost
Durability is more important than low cost
Low cost is about as important as experience
Solution
MUSTS NoNuke RadAway Deconwash
Adequate flow control GO GO NO GO
Acceptable spray pattern GO GO GO
WANTS Weight Rating Score Rating Score
Easy service 7 2 14 9 63
Low cost 4 3 12 7 28
Durability 6 8 48 6 36
Experience 4 9 36 2 8
110 135
NO GO

Some final words
There is A LOT more to decision
analysis!
There are many other analytical
tools (fault trees, event trees,
decision trees)
Lets look at just a few
Analytical Decision Tools
The analytical approach deals with
hazards by studying their
mechanisms,analyzing statistical
histories, computing probabilities of
accidents and weighing costs and
benefits of hazards elimination.
Accident analysis
Failure Modes and Effects Analysis
Fault & Event Tree Analysis
Toxicology and Epidemiology
Cost-Benefit Analysis
Failure Modes and
Effects Analysis
FMEA
Formal step-by-step analytical method
to analyze complex engineering systems.
Steps:
Critically examine the system
Divide system into various components
Examine each component and determine the
various ways in which it may fail
Examine all potential failures and decide
what the effects may be.
Does not typically take into account human error
FMEA (cont)
Need to determine some sort of
hazard classification scale
May also want to consider frequency
of potential failure
For example
Hazard classification Frequency
0 = No Hazard H = High
1 = Slight Hazard M = Medium
2 = Moderate Hazard L = Low
3 = Extreme Hazard U = Undetermined
4 = Severe Hazard
Quantitative Analysis
An accident scenario can be
examined in the following stages:
Initiating event
Sequence of events
each event has a probability of occurrence
(p
k
) and a probability of non-occurrence
(1-p
k
)
Final state
Overall probability of occurrence
Expected consequence
Use Fault or Event Trees
Fault Tree Analysis (FTA)
Used to predict and prevent
accidents
Graphical model using Boolean algebra
How to develop a fault tree:
Decide upon the accident/incident to be placed
at the top of the tree
Identify the broadest level of failure/fault
event that could contribute to top event.
Move downward successively until basic events
are defined.
For AND gates and
independent events
P(A
1
A
2
..A
n
)
= P(A
1
)P(A
2
)..
For OR gates and
mutually exclusive events
P(A
1
+A
2
+..A
n
)
= P(A
1
)+P(A
2
)..
Basic Equations
Event Tree Analysis (ETA)
Used to determine how a failure can
occur and the probability of
occurrence
Graphical based on binary operations
(probability of failure/success)
How to develop and event tree:
Identify the initiating event of interest;
Identify the safety functions designed to deal
with initiating event;
Construct the event tree and describe the
resulting accident event sequences.
Toxicology
Toxicology - the study of the
nature and effects of poisons.
Industrial toxicology is concerned with
identifying what industrial materials or
contaminants can harm workers, and
what can be done to control the
materials.
Typically, we study the effects on
animals and try to make inferences as
to the effects in humans
Epidemiology
Epidemiology - statistical data
obtained from studying the
incidence of a particular health
outcome from a population of
workers who share exposure to a
suspected hazard, and from
another population, similar in all
other respects, who lack the
exposure.
Cost-Benefit Analysis
In the real world, funds do have limitations.
Cost-benefit analysis must be used to
compare capital investment alternatives
There may be numerous ways to improve
safety and health, and cost-benefit
analysis aids in determining the order of
implementation.
Biggest difficulty is estimation of the
benefit side of the picture.
New Kaye Car
My family is contemplating buying a
car (new to us!)
At the moment we are considering a
Mazda 5
Considerations:
seats 6, not a minivan, reasonable fuel
economy, price (want to own by the
end of 3 years)
New Kaye Car
Price
New ($26000); Used ($18000-20000)
Financing Options:
New (2.9%)
Used (8.0%)
We have $5000 in hand
Is there an interest rate or a price
cross-over point (if used price
increases)?

Situation Analysis
(Where are we?)
Problem
Analysis
(PA)
Decision
Analysis
(DA)
Potential
Problem
Analysis
(PPA)
PAST PRESENT FUTURE
What is the fault?
How to correct the
fault?
faults?
Potential Problem Analysis (PPA)
We made our decision!
Now, we want to plan for success.
As with other approaches, a table is
constructed, which addresses:
Potential problems
Possible causes
Preventative action
Contingent actions
Potential Problem Possible causes Preventative Action Contingent
Actions
A. 1.
2.

B. 1.
2.

After making a decision: you
implement!
Modelling
Using a set of assumptions and
approximations to investigate how a
system works.
Simulation
Imitating or mimicking real systems
(usually using computer modelling).
New Lecturer
Mr Bob Anderson (Senior Engineer,
Simulator & eLearning Technology
Dept., NPT, Pickering Learning
Centre) takes over next week
Modelling and simulation
We will announce the dates and
times for the trip to simulators at
OPG
Step 4: Implementing the
Solution
Define the Problem
Generate Solutions
Implement Solution
Evaluate Solution
BEWARE!
Do not get stalled in the
problem solving process by
analyzing things to death!
At some point, you have to
implement the solution!
Four Phases of
Implementation:
1.Approval
2.Planning
3.Carry through
4.Follow up
Lets examine
these in turn
1. Approval
In some cases, the first step to
implementation is getting approval
from your organization to proceed
with the selected solution.
You may have to sell your ideas to
management:
What you want to do
Why you want to do it
How you are going to do it
How your project will benefit the
organization
Selling your Ideas
Some advice:
Avoid technical jargon
Make presentation flow in a logical and
orderly manner
Be concise (avoid small details)
Anticipate questions and be prepared
to answer
Be prepared (and confident) enough to say
I dont have the answer for this right
now, but I will find it for you.
Be enthusiastic about you ideas
Document the Approval
Make sure that the approval you
get is well documented:
Written (memo preferable)
Signed
Approved by person with proper level
of authority
All aspects have been clearly
communicated and understood (in
writing)

2. Planning
Once you have approval, the most
important step of implementation is
planning.
The best way to plan is to sketch
the pathway through to the finished
solution.
There are many ways to plan
Let us build upon concepts we
already are familiar with.
Planning
KT
Situation
Analysis
Time &
Resource
Allocation
KT Potential
Problem
Analysis
Gantt and
Deployment
Charts
Critical
Path
Management
Necessary
Resources
Steps to Planning
We can use a form of KT Situation
Analysis to help identify critical
elements and prioritize them.
Gantt charts, deployment charts,
critical path charts, budgets, etc.
will help us do time and resource
allocation.
We can use a form of KT Potential
Problem Analysis to help us identify
what could go wrong
Example: CANDU Steam
Generator Tube Scaling
Assume that there is scale buildup
(fouling) in CANDU steam generator
piping that is reducing the
efficiency of the steam generator.
In a CANDU, the primary side
circuit contains heavy water (and
radioactive tritium), and that the
secondary side contains normal
water.
600 MW
Steam
Generator
Steam Generator Tubing
H
2
O scale
D
2
O scale
Gantt Chart
The Gantt chart relates the task to timeframe.

Now, whos going to do the work?
Deployment Chart
Worker
A
Worker
B
Worker
C
Worker
D
1. Disassemble heat
exchanger

2. Analyze the scale
and find extent
Advisor
3. Determine best
way to remove scale
Everyone
4. Arrange for scale
to be removed
Advisor
5. Reassemble heat
exchanger

Team Member
Task
Now, what are the bottlenecks in the process?
Critical Path
Critical path analysis helps to
identify critical points in the
process.
Critical points are generally readily
identified as tasks that will cause a
substantial delay in the
implementation of a solution if the
schedule is not met.
Cleaning the Heat Exchanger
The water-based mineral scales are
normally cleaned using high pressure
water jets. Both sides are water-
based.
However, on the primary side, there
is tritium, which means that a number
of radiation protection precautions
must be used (SCBA, protective suits,
gloves) and special sampling
procedures must be followed.
Disassemble
heat
exchanger
Sample
D
2
O
scale
Don PPE
Determine
extent
D
2
O scale
Sample
H
2
O
scale
Remove
D
2
O
scale
Recover
D
2
O and
3
H
water
Determine
extent
H
2
O scale
Remove
H
2
O
scale
Reassemble
heat
exchanger
C
r
i
t
i
c
a
l

P
a
t
h

Ensure critical path items
do not lag schedule
Necessary Resources
Resources generally fall into 5
different categories:
1. Available personnel;
2. Equipment;
3. Travel;
4. Supplies; and
5. Overhead
You may also want to incorporate
contingency funds (a percentage of
the budget for unforeseen
expenditures)
Sample
Budget
Personnel
Days Daily rate Cost % Budget
Worker A 10 $640.00 $6,400.00
Worker B 10 $640.00 $6,400.00
Worker C 10 $640.00 $6,400.00
Worker D 10 $640.00 $6,400.00
Supervisor 10 $880.00 $8,800.00
Subtotal - salaries $34,400.00 33.8%
Fringe benefits (18.5%) $6,364.00 6.2%
TOTAL Salray + Benefits $40,764.00
Equipment
PPE $2,000.00 2.0%
High pressure sprayers $10,000.00 9.8%
Travel
Attend sprayer training $8,000.00 7.9%
Supplies
Sample bottles $500.00 0.5%
Chemicals $500.00 0.5%
Sub-Total $61,764.00
Overhead (65%) $40,146.60 39.4%
TOTAL BUDGET $101,910.60 100.0%
Sample
Budget
with
Contingency
Personnel
Days Daily rate Cost % Budget
Worker A 10 $640.00 $6,400.00
Worker B 10 $640.00 $6,400.00
Worker C 10 $640.00 $6,400.00
Worker D 10 $640.00 $6,400.00
Supervisor 10 $880.00 $8,800.00
Subtotal - salaries $34,400.00 32.7%
Fringe benefits (18.5%) $6,364.00 6.1%
TOTAL Salray + Benefits $40,764.00
Equipment
PPE $2,000.00 1.9%
High pressure sprayers $10,000.00 9.5%
Travel
Attend sprayer training $8,000.00 7.6%
Supplies
Sample bottles $500.00 0.5%
Chemicals $500.00 0.5%
Sub-Total $61,764.00
Overhead (65%) $40,146.60 38.2%
Contingency on ODCs (15%) $3,150.00 3.0%
TOTAL BUDGET $105,060.60 100.0%
ODC = Other
Direct Cost
(not labour)
3. Carry Through
This is the Just do it phase
For example, you may be:
Carrying out a design
Fabricating a product
Performing experiments
Doing calculations (finite difference;
Monte Carlo, etc)
Writing a report
etc etc etc
Monitor Progress
All the planning in the world will not
save you if the carry through phase
is done poorly
Various parameters of the carry
through must be monitored to
ensure that the goals of the
project are being met.
Prevents problems from escalating
Monitoring Check-List
Find limits of solution (over- and under-
estimate the answer)
Make educated guess at solution
Conduct quick experiment to see if
solution works under simple conditions
Continue to learn more about the chosen
solution
Continue to validate the solution, and
ensure physical laws are not violated
Carefully plan computer simulations (as
you would a laboratory experiment)
Revealing the Solution
We can borrow ideas from Blooms
Taxonomy to make a recipe for
carry through.
Taxonomy: The science, laws or
principles of classification.
Benjamin Bloom (1913-1999): ground
breaking researcher in learning and
educational evaluation
Treat the problem as an onion
Blooms Taxonomic Approach
to
Problem - Solution
Carry Through
Evaluation
Try to verify your solution(s)
Synthesis
Take all your ideas and formulate (synthesize) a
way (or ways) to test your solution(s)
Analysis
Apply rules & knowledge to the sub-problems to
generate solutions. Identify missing parts.
Application
Determine which sets of rules, principles and
ideas should be applied to the sub-problems.
Comprehension
Manipulation or extrapolation of knowledge to
classify into sub-problems.
Knowledge
Recalling previously learned material and using it
(this is used in each step of the unraveling).
Final words on Onions
The primary advantage to following
this type of carry through
process is that it allows us unravel
the solution.
Unraveling the solution:
Completion of each step uncovers the
next step
By the time you have the onion
unraveled, the solution should be
apparent.
More Final words on Onions
Shrek
4. Follow Up
Inspect what you Expect
Follow up to check that you are
Following the solution plan
Proceeding on schedule
Proceeding within budget
Producing acceptable quality
Tracking solution that is still relevant
to the original problem
Document progress (progress report)
Changing Problem Statements
If the goals keep changing, ask yourself:
(a)Where did the goals come from and
why?
(b)Are the goals still appropriate to the
problem as originally defined?
Experiment and Simulation
In the coming weeks simulation and
modeling, using deterministic and
stochastic methods, will be covered
by R. Anderson.
Experimental design is a very
important part of problem solving
that you will be developing (along
with improved modeling and
simulation skills) over the next few
years (and your lifetime).
Basic Building
Blocks for
Experimental
Design
Examine the
need for the
experiment
Define
objectives for
the experiment
Choose
responses to
measure
Identify the
important
variables
Design the
experiment
Perform
experiment
Analyze
results
Act upon
results
Report !
IMPORTANT: Error Analysis
Three things I will stress here:
ERROR ANALYSIS
PRESENTATION
OF DATA
REPORT
Experimental Data Analysis
Propagation
of Uncertainty
Precision
Uncertainty
Bias
Uncertainty
Statistical Analysis
Error Distribution
Gaussian distribution
t-distribution
Chi-square distribution
Population
theory
Sample
theory
Some Definitions
Metrology
The science (and art) of measurement
Accuracy
The difference between what you measure
and the true or standard value
Precision
Difference the difference or range in
repeated measurement of the same thing.
Also the number of digits you reasonably
report.
Some Definitions
Resolution
Smallest increment of change you can
determine; sometimes called least count.
Resolution is is usually less than or equal to
Precision.
Sensitivity
Change in output per unit change in input.
Range
The interval of the smallest and largest
inputs (measurands) the system can handle
without distortion
Many times range and sensitivity are at
odds.
Types of Errors
Bias error (systematic error) are those
that occur the same way each time a
measurement is made. Bias errors do not
show a distribution, therefore no
statistical technique may be used.
Calibration errors
Consistent human errors
Defective equipment
Loading errors (effective of sensor on
quantity measured)
Types of Errors (cont)
Precision errors (random error) are
different for each successive measurement
but have an average value of zero.
Statistical analysis may be used to
estimate the size of error. Notice that
precision means repeatability.
Human error
Equipment disturbances
Fluctuating experimental conditions
Bias error
Truth
Measured value
Precision
error
Total error
Types of Errors (cont)
Illegitimate errors are those that would
not be expected to exist.
Blunders (outright mistakes)
Computational errors
Error estimates are used to
quantify uncertainty!
Error Analysis
Types of error that should be
avoided in experimental design:
Type I and II error
TYPE I: Declare that something has
an effect on the outcome, when
really it does not (False Alarms)
TYPE II: When we fail to discover
a real effect on the outcome
(Missed Data)
Visual Display of
Quantitative Information
General rules of graphing data:
Graph should be designed to require
minimum effort for comprehension.
Axes should be clearly labeled with the
quantity and units.
Axes should be clearly numbered and
have tick marks for significant divisions.
Not every tick needs to be numbered.
Use scientific notation to avoid large
digits.
Scales, or range of scales, should be
chosen to emphasize the relative
importance of data.
Use error bars
Use the minimum amount of text for
clarity.
Experimental data should, when
possible, show the data points
Theoretical curves should be solid
lines, with no points.
Avoid orienting the axes labels so that
the reader must rotate the graph
Title the graph in the Figure caption
Always look for the straight line
Why?
Most often, you are trying to observe
a linear trend for predictability.
Y=f(x) goes to Y=A+BX
Either plotting the variables a
different way, or using logarithmic
axes can help.
Simple example:
x
y
5 . 2
1+ =
Graph of the original
function

Same function, plotted
differently
Often used transformations
Graphical Excellence
Show the data
Make the reader think about the
data
Avoid distorting the data
Present a lot in a small space
Make large datasets coherent
Encourage eyes to compare different
pieces of data
Serve a clear purpose
Revealing Data
X Y X Y X Y X Y
10.00 8.04 10.00 9.14 10.00 7.46 8.00 6.58
8.00 6.95 8.00 8.14 8.00 6.77 8.00 5.76
13.00 7.58 13.00 8.74 13.00 12.74 8.00 7.71
9.00 8.81 9.00 8.77 9.00 7.11 8.00 8.84
11.00 8.33 11.00 9.26 11.00 7.81 8.00 8.47
14.00 9.96 14.00 8.10 14.00 8.84 8.00 7.04
6.00 7.24 6.00 6.13 6.00 6.08 8.00 5.25
4.00 4.26 4.00 3.10 4.00 5.39 19.00 12.50
12.00 10.84 12.00 9.13 12.00 8.15 8.00 5.56
7.00 4.82 7.00 7.26 7.00 6.42 8.00 7.91
5.00 5.68 5.00 4.74 5.00 5.73 8.00 6.89
I II III IV
Each data set has N=11, mean X=9.0 & mean Y=7.5
Same statistics, yet very different graphically!
Good graphing does not make
up for a poor model!
The Report
Perfect grammar (Strunk & White)
Logical organization
Logical flow of thoughts (continuity)
Concisely written
Interesting
Ideas supported (examples, data,
references)
Appropriate use of figures and tables
Passive voice (It was done, not I
did..)
Clear purpose
Nice presentation
Introduction
to Modelling
&Simulation
Rob Anderson, B.A.Sc, M.A.Sc, P.Eng
Ontario Power Generation
Simulator & E-Learning Technology Dept.
Pickering Learning Centre
905-683-2821 ext 3039
Who am I?
Why are we here?
Introduction to Simulation and Modelling
Definitions
Where is simulation used?
Why do we use simulation?

A look inside OPGs Nuclear Stations
Power plant simulation at Ontario Power
Generation
Outline for Today
Define the Problem
Generate Solutions
Implement Solution
Evaluate Solution
Definitions
System: a set of related entities,
components or elements.
A system contains feedback when a
system has the capability of reacting to
changes in its own state.
A system is adaptive when it reacts to
changes in its environment

System
Input
Output
Feedback
The attributes of the system elements
define its state (e.g. mass, temperature, pressure,
state of matter, electric charge, etc.)
A system is in steady state if the current
state of the system does not change in the
future.
A system will be in a transient state if the
state is changing, typically following any
disturbance or change in input to the
system.
A system is called stable if it returns to a
steady state after any disturbance to the
system.

Models
Model a set of assumptions or
approximations about how a system works
It is often advantageous to study the model
instead of the real system
usually much easier, faster, cheaper, safer
Wide-ranging ideas can be tried with the model
Make your mistakes with the model where they dont
count, rather than for real where they do count
Often, just building the model is instructive
regardless of results
Model validity is important!
The model must mimic reality faithfully, with an
appropriate level of detail, so that the same conclusions
come from the model as would come from the actual
system
Ways to study a system
Experiment with a
model of the
system
Experiment with the
actual system
SYSTEM
Physical model
Mathematical
model
Analytic Solution
Simulation
(Approximate)
solution
Stochastic
Simulation
Deterministic
Simulation
Simulate
To feign or pretend
To act or take on the appearance of
To look or act like
Simulator
A device which presents a representation of reality
typically based on mathematical models of the physical
nature of the systems under consideration,
typically running on a digital computer system, and
used for training, analysis, prediction, entertainment,...
Examples of Simulations
Industry
Industrial Engineering (Assembly
lines)
Nuclear power
Transportation
Flight, Rail, Ship, Auto,
Sail
Traffic Optimization
Scientific research and
development
Astrophysics
Seismology
Meteorology
Limits to Growth studies
Climate change
Entertainment
Personal computer games
VR Rides (SimEx)

Reactor Physics Modelling
Neutron Kinetics
and Transport
Fission and fission
products
Delayed neutrons
Absorption of
neutrons
Thermalization of
neutrons
Neutron balance
Reactor Power
Neutron density,
flux and thermal
power
Spatial flux
variations
Temperature
effects
Core construction
Fuel burn-up
Conversion of fertile
isotopes
Health Physics Modelling
Radiation source
specification
Interactions of
radiation with
matter
Geometry of
source and
target
Detector
responses
Pathways analysis
Dose response
Radiation biology
Bioassay
Risk analysis
Biodiversity
Environmental
transport
Epidemiology
Mechanical
Modelling
Structures
Material
properties
Airfoils
Turbines
Fluid dynamics
Thermodynamics
Heat transfer
HVAC
Solar cells
Fuel cells
Nuclear power
Wind turbines
Plant performance
Cost-benefit
analyses
Power grid
operations
Energy Systems
Modelling
Simulator frozen over Olympic Site at Homebush Bay, just about to have a midair collision with a helicopter
carrying a Sydney 2000 banner. From http://www.hyway.com.au/747/747Visit/747Visit.html
http://www.simdesign.nl/motionsys.html
http://www.mainax.com/movies/simulator_700kbps.wmv
http://orbit.medphys.ucl.ac.uk/images/gallery73.jpg
http://orbit.medphys.ucl.ac.uk/images/gallery73.jpg
Simulation Types
Differentiated by Scope (and $)
Full-Scope Most realistic; Limited access, >10M$ large
capital cost + ongoing maintenance and upgrade costs;
multi-purpose
Part-Task not as real, but cheaper; specific purpose
Desktop/Laptop not real but can be used anywhere,
anytime, relatively inexpensive; limited purpose
Differentiated by Timing
Real-Time Things happen as in reality; for training
Free-Running Typically faster than real-time; for
prediction, analysis, validation of design
Simulator = Full-Scope & Real-Time
Uses for OPG Simulators
Nuclear Operator and Shift Manager Training
Initial training to obtain license (18-24 months)
Continuing, or refresher training to maintain license
(five weeks/year)
Infrequently-Performed Tests & Evolutions IPTEs
Very low frequency operations with high likelihood of error and high
consequence of error (e.g. Reactor First-Criticality)
Simulator-based examinations and testing (Initial and
Continuing)
Emergency Management Exercises (Mock Nuclear Incidents)
Validation of Procedure or Design Changes (Human Factors,
Engineering Analysis)
Tours, Demos
Prototype Intelligent Operator Aids
Wind Generator
Pickering Learning Centre
Main Control Room Panels
Instructor
Observation
Booth
M
o
b
i
l
e
I
n
s
t
r
u
c
t
o
r
F
a
c
i
l
i
t
y
Simulation Computer
Room
Panel
Interface
Operator
Desk
Simplified
Plan View of
Pickering A
Simulator
The Pickering A Simulator Team, 1976:
Andrew S.Y. Lee, David Klingspon, Pat Gallagher,
Jacob Varughese, Tony Babalow, Toaning Ng,
Bill Andersen, Greg Hall, Aldo Shirinich, Joe
Brown, Brian Cook, Rick Bassermann, George
Assembler 1970s
61 * FOLLOWING IS THE CALCULATION FOR PHASE ANGLE
62 *
0000 0700 63 LDA =0 CLEAR INCREMENT
0001 8061 64 STA INCR
65 *
0002 0400 104F 66 @LDA ELRHZ FREQ OF RUNNING M/C @B6
0004 CC80 67 SNZ A USE 0 DEG IF NOT CONNECTED
0005 780C 68 BRU L201
0006 2C00 1048 69 @SUB ELIHZ FREQ OF INCOMMING M/C
0008 6853 70 CPA K51 2 HZ
0009 CD40 71 SGT SKIP NEXT IF FREQ DIFF IS LT 4HZ
000A 7805 72 BRU L100
000B 6851 73 CPA K52 -2HZ
000C CD80 74 SGE SKIP NEXT IF FREQ DIFF IS LT -4HZ
000D 780C 75 BRU L190
76 *
000E 0050 77 LDA K270
000F 7827 78 BRU L200
79 *
0010 004F 80 L100 LDA K90
0011 7825 81 BRU L200
82 *
0012 07FF 83 L201 LDA =-1
0013 8050 84 STA FLAG
0014 0001 85 LDA K10
0015 7821 86 BRU L200
87 *
0016 D555 88 K10 DEC -.33333 10 PAST 12

FORTRAN 1980s
C RACLIMT=0.0
C
ELSE
CTOP
C
CS4 Stepback Mode
C
CD RA.0030 STEPBACK - FALL UNDER GRAVITY RAVTEMP
C *******
CT2
C
IF (RACADLAY(I)) THEN
C
RAVTEMP = RAVCA1(I) + (RAVTC - RAVCA1(I)) * RADTX
C
ELSE
C
RACADLAY(I) = .TRUE.
C
ENDIF
C
ENDIF

C -1990s
case RUNNING:
/* Is a stall called for? */
if ( *spur_stallmalf == TRUE || recurring_stallmalf == TRUE )
{
/* Stall the computer on next pass */
status = STALLED;

/* reset spurious stall malfunction */
*spur_stallmalf = FALSE;

if ( recurring_stallmalf == TRUE ) *restall_timer =
RESTALL_TIME;

/* Turn on stop light */
*run_light = FALSE;
*stop_light = TRUE;

/* Turn on stall horn */
*stall_horn = TRUE;

}
else
/* Running normally */
status = RUNNING;
GUIs - 1993
ROSE: A graphical
editing tool is used
to create
schematics, which
are then built
into code
automatically
(FORTRAN, C)

Similar from the
users standpoint to
some problem-
solving games, e.g.
Incredible
Machine
Reactor
Moderator
Heat Transport
Safety systems
Auxiliaries
Boilers &
Steam Systems
Turbines
Condensate
Feedwater
Heating
Digital Control Computers,
Instrumentation and Control
Generator
Generator
& Turbine
Auxiliaries
Unit Electrical
Systems
Bulk Electrical
System
Containment Systems
MAJOR NUCLEAR
PLANT SYSTEMS
There are several major systems comprising a nuclear plant. Typically, each major
system is broken up into sub-systems, and each sub-system is separately modeled
as one or more subroutines which communicate with each other through the
Simulator Database.

The models typically run iteratively, at regular intervals, in one or more processors
in the simulation computer, under the direction of the simulator executive.
Examples of SDB Content
Inputs from Turbine model
U6NT1 REAL ST200 TURBINE SPEED NORM --- F8.4
U6NTP REAL PREVIOUS TURBINE SPEED NORM --- F8.5

Generator state variables
GGG02FDR REAL 2-4220-G01 rotor resistance --- F10.4
GGG02IM REAL 2-4210G FIELD CURRENT KAmps --- F10.3
GGG02EFC COMP 2-4210G induced e.m.f. phasor KVolt --- F10.3
GGG02HZ REAL 2-4210G e.m.f. FREQUENCY Hertz --- F10.3

Inputs to the DCC from the generator model
G1E0651$ BYTE X-65854 GENERATOR LOSS OF FIELD --- TRUE
G28$5527 REAL X-64230 PY 105 GENERATOR H2 PRESSURE kPaa --- F7.2

Annunciation window driven by the generator model
G1$W1201 BYTE 65854-MCR -Generator protection trip- DO2843 --- TRUE

Panel meters
P6$G02A1 REAL 2-4210-G02 Main Generator Ammeter AO0289 --- F10.4
P6$G02V1 REAL 2-4210-G02 Main Generator Voltmeter KAO0288 --- F10.4
P6$G02W1 REAL 2-4210-G02 Main Generator Wattmeter KAO0290 --- F10.4
P6$G02X1 REAL 2-4210-G02 Main Generator VARmeter AO0291 --- F10.4

Instructor Malfunctions
TF300401 BYTE 2-4210-PROT Gen loss of excit. G1 --- TRUE
TF300501 BYTE 2-4210-PROT Gen phase unbal alarm G1 --- TRUE
TF300601 BYTE 2-4210-PROT Gen phase unbal trip G1 --- TRUE
TF300701 BYTE 2-4210-PROT underfrequency (high) G1 --- TRUE
TF300702 BYTE 2-4210-PROT underfrequency (low) G1 --- TRUE

Simulator
Executive
Panel Interface Communication
Digital control computer (DCC) and PACE computer executive
DCC periodic programs PACE Computer communications & annunciations
Condensate
Feedwater Heating
Turbines
Generator
Generator
& Turbine
Auxiliaries
Emergency Core Injection
Shutdown System 2
Common Services (Air,
Water, Fire Protection)
Reactor Auxiliaries
Window Annunciations
Moderator
Shutdown System 1
PACE Computers
Reactor
Heat Transport
Thermalhydraulics
DCC Demand programs
Heat Transport
Pumps & Valves
Containment Systems
Boilers & Main Steam
Unit Electrical
Systems
Bulk Electrical
System
50 milliseconds
100 milliseconds
200
milliseconds
Synchronous
Process
Asynchronous Processes
Typically run after the Synchronous Processes
using whatever spare time remains
Typically used for disk access or on-demand
activities:
Initialization Points:
Store and Restore
Backtrack (periodic automatic store)
Lesson Plans (Pre-programmed instructor controls and
malfunctions)
Recording and playback of trainee and instructor actions
Accessing SDB labels for maintenance, bulk data
sampling, or trend plotting
Lecture 7 Topics
Stochastic Simulation
Monte Carlo Methods

Deterministic Simulation
Types of Simulation

Stochastic Model
Deterministic Model
-Process with some randomness
-Future state is partially but not
totally determined by current
state
-Future state governed by some
probability distribution of
possible outcomes
-Random number generation is
used to select alternate
outcomes
-Several trials are necessary to
develop statistically significant
results
-Example: Rolling dice
-Process that behaves
predictably
-Future state is determined by
current state using knowledge of
underlying conservation or state
equations, or from suitable
approximations of those
equations
-Future states can typically be
estimated in real-time or even
ahead of time.
-Example: Temperature of an
electric heater
A deterministic (but likely very complex) model can (in
principle) predict the outcome based on:
-the force applied to the die,
-the trajectory of the die in the air,
-tumbling and bouncing, considering the many
imperfections of die and table.
-other factors

A very simple stochastic model, with the six possible
outcomes having equal probability, would work better,
without having to consider the many parameters that
would be part of a purely deterministic model.
Rolling a Die
Probability Distributions
Throwing a die with equal
probability of each outcome is an
example of a uniform distribution.

1 2
3 4
5 6
Other distributions are possible for
a models random inputs, depending
on how that input is likely to vary:

A Practical Example:Pi
Ancient people knew that there was a
fixed ratio between the ratio of a
circles circumference (D) to diameter
(D), which was approximately equal to 3.
This ratio is denoted by the Greek letter

It has been proven that is both
irrational (cannot be written as the ratio
of integers) and transcendental (not the
root of an equation with rational
coefficients).
Archimedes calculated that was
between 3 10/71 and 3 10/70.
In other words, 223/71 < < 220/70
An often quoted approximation for is
22/7!
People have spent a lot of (or maybe
too much*) time trying to calculate
and list the digits of .
We can calculate (approximate)
using stochastic simulation
* http://3.141592653589793238462643383279502884197169399375105820974944592.com
George Louis Leclerc
(1733)
a.k.a. Comte de Buffon
Buffons Whimsy
LeClerc, comte de
Buffon was
interested in
showing the
foolishness of
playing games of
chance.
He was initially
interested in a
game called franc-
carreau
You bet on whether the coin hits a crack or not
Buffon Needle Problem
Buffon extended his
thinking to sticks
falling on a floor with
parallel lines.

Why?
Well, it can be
derived that the
probability of
crossing a crack is
given by
W
L
p
or
W
L
p
=
=
2
2
t
t
W
L
Derivation
Lets look at one segment:
W
L
D

Lsin=H
From this geometry, you can see that whenever the
distance of the midpoint of the needle to the closest
parallel line is less than H, the needle crosses a line.
When D > H, the toothpick does not cross a line.
If we plot D versus (for a large
number of tosses), we get something like
this:
Needle crosses parallel line
Needle does
not cross
parallel line
Probability of needle
crossing a parallel
line is the ratio of
the red area to the
total area.
This is equal to the
ratio of the number
crossing parallel lines
to the total number
of tosses
pW
L
or
W
L
W
L
p
W
L d L
2
2
2
2
Area r Rectangula
sin
2
1
Area Red
0
=
=
|
.
|
\
|
=
|
.
|
\
|
=
= =
}
t
t
t
t
u u
t

t ~ 2
Lengthof needle
Distance between parallel lines

Number of tosses
Number crossing parallel lines
Or, if the length of the needle
is the same as the line spacing (L=W):

t ~ 2
Number of tosses
Number crossing parallel lines
www.efg2.com/Lab/Mathemetics/Buffon.htm

You can try it online:
So what?
This is an example of a stochastic
simulation used to derive a physical
quantity of interest!
Our model was based upon randomly
throwing needles around equally
spaced lines.
Stochastic simulation is sometimes
called Monte Carlo Simulation.
Monte Carlo Method
The term
Monte Carlo
was introduced
by von
Neumann and
Ulam during
World War II,
as a code word
for secret work
at Los Alamos.
1940
Monte Carlo: The city of Monte Carlo in Monaco was
(and still is) well known for its gambling casinos.
To pi or not to pi
We already looked at one way
to use Monte Carlo (or, using
an acronym, MC) to determine
the value of .

Given a cork board, a marker
and an infinite number of
darts, you can determine the
value of a different way.
1. Draw a square
2. Inscribe a circle
3. Throw darts randomly
D
A
c
= D
2
/4
A
s
= D
2

D
D
They have the same D.
If you multiply the area of the square
by /4, you get the area of the circle,
or in other words:
The ratio of the area of the circle to
the area of the square is /4!
So, to calculate , you simply need to
multiply the ratio of the area of the
circle to that of the square by 4.
square of Area
circle of Area
4 = t
Number in red area = 10
Number in blue area = 35
Solution
The number of darts hitting an area, if
thrown randomly, will be representative of
the area of the figure (in effect, an
estimate of a 2D integral)
As the number of darts approaches
infinity, all space will be occupied
Area of square = 10+35 = 45
Area of circle = 35

111 . 3
45
35
4
square of Area
circle of Area
4 = ~ = t
First Step to MATLAB Solution
Pseudo-code:
Pick random x and y values between
[0,1].
Is x
2
+y
2
less than or equal to 1? If
yes, score a hit.
Repeat the above steps a lot of times.
Calculate
pi = 4 times (hits)/(no. of trials)

In MATLAB
In MATLAB, you can generate a
pseudo-random number between 0
and 1 by using the command :
>>rand
Other programming languages, C/C++,
FORTRAN, etc. have ways to
generate random numbers.
Can we do this in
MATLAB?
% Matlab Program to Find Pi using Random Numbers
% and a circle inscribed in square
Nrand = input('How Many Random Numbers ');
NInside = 0;
for nloops=1:Nrand
Xrand = rand; % Generate Random XY Point
Yrand = rand;
Rrand = Xrand^2 + Yrand^2; % Find its distance from origin
if (Rrand <= 1)
NInside = NInside + 1;
end
end
disp(['Total Generated: ' num2str(Nrand) ' Inside Pts: ' ...
num2str(NInside)]);
piapprox = 4*NInside/Nrand;
disp([' Approximation to pi = ' num2str(piapprox)]);
rand The Fine Print:
Most computer routines for generating random
numbers are not really random at all! They are
actually deterministic!

The next random number is calculated from the
previous one using a single algorithm or formula.

The sequence of numbers appears to be somewhat
random and uniformly distributed over the range
[0,1], but in fact it would fail rigorous
mathematical analysis for randomness.

Referred to as pseudo-random because the
numbers only appear to be random.

rand The Fine Print:
Using the same seed (starting value)
repeatedly will generate the exact
same sequence of numbers.
Eventually, the series of numbers will
also repeat!

You can work around this (somewhat)
by using different values as the seed,
such as a number based on current
clock time, and by not using so many
numbers that the series repeats
itself.
Truly Random Numbers
For truly random numbers, some
random physical process must be
sampled.
Typically this is done by using special
hardware to sample a quantum
phenomenon.
Sampling atmospheric white noise by
connecting sound cards to AM radios
tuned to frequencies free of broadcasts.
Timing successive pairs of radioactive
decays detected by a Geiger-Mller tube
More MC Examples
Process Simulation, Operational Research, Industrial
Engineering
Queues
Assembly lines
Road traffic flow optimization
Evacuation of buildings, venues, disaster areas
Analysis of WTC 9/11 evacuation
Grocery store shopping
Golf course operation
Financial applications:
Stocks, options pricing
project planning: risk analysis.
Computer graphics rendering using ray tracing
techniques

Other MC Examples
Geophysics
plate tectonics, earthquakes, lava flows
Weather, hurricane track prediction, storm damage
prediction
Internet operation
packet transfers, collisions, routes
worm and virus propagation
Search & Rescue
planning a search area and search pattern
Solving multi-dimensional definite integrals
efficiency of stochastic methods over deterministic
methods increases as dimensions increase in number
ASSIGNMENT!
Integration using MC
| | b a x
x f
n
a b
dx x f
i
n
i
i
b
a
,
) (
) (
) (
1
e
~

}
=
where n values for x
i
are randomly picked such that

Larger n -> better approximation
Use random numbers in range [a,b] to sample the
function at many values and take their average
(the average height of the function) and multiply
by the width of the sample region, b-a.
Integration using MC
| |
.
.
,
) , ,... , , (
1
) (
) ,..., , , (
1
3 2 1
1
1 2 3 3 2 1
1
1 1
2
2 2
3
3 3
times n repeated is This
function the of i evaluation each for
picked randomly are b a x values K where
x x x x f
n
a b
dx dx dx dx x x x x f
k k ki
Ki
n
i
i i i
K
k
k k
b
a x
K
b
a x
K
b
a x
b
a x
K
K K
e
~
[
} } } }
= =
= = = =

Can be applied to K-dimensional integrals, and is faster than
any other known method if K>5
What was von Neumanns
secret work?
Direct simulation of neutron diffusion in
fissionable material
n
Not long after WW II, Monte Carlo methods were also
used to evaluate complex multidimensional integrals and
to solve certain integral equations occurring in physics
that were not amenable to analytical solution
The Monte Carlo technique applied to particle
transport actually follows each of many trial
particles from a source throughout its life to its
death in some terminal category (absorption,
escape, etc.).

The individual probabilistic events that comprise a
process are simulated sequentially.

Probability distributions based on transport data
are randomly sampled to determine the outcome at
each step.
The Life and Death of a Particle
This diagram represents the random event history of a
neutron incident on a slab of material that is fissionable.
Numbers between 0 and 1 are selected randomly to
determine what (if any) and where an event takes place,
based on the rules (physics) and probabilities (transport data)
governing the processes and materials involved.

A neutron collision occurs at
event 1. The neutron is
scattered in the direction
shown, which is selected
randomly from the physical
scattering distribution. A photon
is also produced and is
temporarily stored, or banked,
for later analysis.
At event 2, fission occurs,
resulting in the termination of
the incoming neutron and the
birth of two outgoing neutrons
and one photon. One neutron
and the photon are banked for
later analysis.

The first fission neutron is
captured at event 3 and
terminated.
The banked neutron is now
retrieved and, by random
sampling, leaks out of the slab at
event 4.
The fission-produced photon has
a collision at event 5 and leaks
out at event 6.
The remaining photon generated
at event 1 is now followed with a
capture at event 7.

This is only one possible sequence!
Many must be tried to build up the
required data.
What are we trying to
solve?
In the case of radiation transport,
the Boltzmann Transport Equation.
Examine different reactions that can
occur, and make sure all events are
accounted for.
Basically, it is a particle balance (analogous to
conservation of mass or conservation of energy in classical
engineering problems)

n r,V, t
( )
= particle density function
=
# particles
volume
at position r,velocity V, and time t
Boltzmann Transport
Equation
a conservation of neutrons equation

cn r,V, t
( )
ct
= VVn r,V, t
( )
VE
total
r,V
( )
n r,V, t
( )
+ V
}
' E
scatter
r,V';V, t
( )
n r,V' t
( )
dV'
+v V' E
fission
r,V';V, t
( )
n r,V' t
( )
dV'
}
+Q r,V, t
( )
creation from scatter
creation from fission
fixed source creation
leave or enter
destroyed (absorption)
Geometry
X
i

X
i+1

d
i

u
i

d
i
is the distance traveled
between successive collisions
E
i

E
i+1

X
i+2

E
i+2

u
i+1

d
i+1

E
i
the energy of the
neutron after a collision
not resulting in absorption
The number of particles of energy E penetrating
to depth d out of N
0
trials is given as
d
e N N
E
=
0
And therefore the probability of
penetration to depth d is
( )
d
e
trials of number
d to g penetratin number
d P
E
=
And therefore the probability of
particle interaction at some path length < d (i.e.
particle did NOT interact until d) is
( )
d
e d P
E
=1
So, assigning a random number associated with the
distance travelled to the next interaction, p
d
,
bounded [0,1] equal to P(d), we get

p
d
=1e
E d
Now, we solve for d

d =
1
E
ln 1 p
d
( )
1
E
ln p
d
( )
Note: This is true because 1-p
d
is
distributed the same as p
d

=
t
(E) is referred to as a cross-section, or
probability of ANY interaction (note it is energy
dependent! More on cross sections later)
d
X
i+1

X
i

u

cosu =
X
i+1
X
i
d

X
i+1
= X
i
+ d cosu
Solve for X
i+1

If it is still inside the slab, then we
will have to continue to track where
the particle goes next. Otherwise,
we can assume the particle is lost,
and start a new particle.

The energy of the particle after a collision must be
calculated, because the probability of the next
interaction depends on it. Assume elastic, isotropic
scattering.

The energy of the outgoing particle can lie anywhere
from the energy of the incident particle E
i
to the
minimum possible energy oE
i
, depending on the
change in angle due to the collision, and the mass of
the target.

Change in direction of 0 -> no change in energy
Change in direction of 180 -> maximum change in
energy.

E,p
E,p
Incident
neutron
Scattered
neutron
Target
nucleus
Recoil
nucleus
E
A
,P
Neutron Kinematics
Energy Momentum
Energy Equations
A
E E E + = '
m
p
E
2
2
=
For perfectly elastic collisions, the energy equation is
From classical mechanics, we know
Therefore:
M
P
m
p
m
p
2 2
'
2
2 2 2
+ = Equation (1)
Note: this p is momentum!
Conservation of Momentum
p
p
P

p
p
P

Using the law of cosines from trigonometry:
P
2
=p
2+
p
2
+-2ppcos
Equation (2)
Now you can plug in the values of momentum and re-write
mE p or mE p or
m
p
E 2 2
2
2
2
= = =
Note: this p is momentum!
P
2
=p
2+
p
2
+-2ppcos

2ME
A
( )
2
= 2mE
( )
2
+ 2mE
'
( )
2
2 2mE 2mE
'
cosu

2ME
A
= 2mE + 2mE
'
2m EE
'
cosu
Divide by 2m Note: M/m ~ A for neutrons

AE
A
= E + E
'
2 EE
'
cosu
Recall that E
A
=E-E

A E E
'
( )
= E + E
'
2 EE
'
cosu
( )
( ) ( )
( ) ( ) 0 1 cos 2 1
cos 2 1 1
cos 2
cos 2
' '
' '
' ' '
' ' '
= +
= +
=
+ =
E A EE E A
EE E A E A
EE E AE E AE
EE E E AE AE
u
u
u
u
This is a quadratic in E, and has the solution
( )
| |
2
2 2
2
'
sin cos
1
u u +
+
= A
A
E
E
So what?
( )
| |
2
2 2
2
'
sin cos
1
u u +
+
= A
A
E
E
Note that a neutron will have the minimum energy
when it collides head-on (= radians)

( )
| |
2
2 2
2
'
sin cos
1
u u +
+
= A
A
E
E
-1
0

E
'
=
E
A+1
( )
2
A 1
| |
2
E
'
E
=
A1
( )
2
A +1
( )
2
o =
A 1
A +1
|
\

|
.
|
2
Collision
parameter
Note: E=oE
The energy of the particle after a
collision that is not absorbed must be
calculated. Generally, it can be
assumed that elastic, isotropic
scattering occurs.

Therefore, the energy of the outgoing
particle can lie anywhere from the
energy of the incident particle E
i
to
the minimum possible energy oE
i
.
energy in change maximum =
i i
E E o
The energy of the outgoing particle will
randomly vary between the minimum energy
(oE
i
) and the maximum incident energy E
i
.

A different random number, p
E
, in the range
[0,1] is picked to represent the fraction of
the maximum possible change in particle
energy for this collision.

E
i+1
=oE
i
+ p
E
E
i
oE
i
| |
We can now model each collision

d =
1
E
ln 1 p
d
( )
1
E
ln p
d
( )
u cos
1
+ =
+
d X X
i i

E
i+1
=oE
i
+ p
E
E
i
oE
i
| |
How far to next event?
Where is the particle in the slab?
What is the energy after event?
Back to
Recall that E (cross section) is a function
of energy E (e.g. low energy thermal neutrons are
much more likely to cause fission, neutrons at certain
intermediate resonance energies are more easily
captured)

To determine the type of collision event,
we first require the probabilities for
capture, fission and scattering, all of
which depend on E
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) E E E E
s f c t
E + E + E = E
t
s
s
t
f
f
t
c
c
p p p
E
E
=
E
E
=
E
E
=
Because of the normalization to E
t
, i.e. we are certain
that one of three possibilities must occur, we know that
1 = + +
s f c
p p p
Pick a random number in the interval [0,1]
See where it lies to see what interaction occurred.
capture
fission
scattering
0 p
c

p
c
+p
f

1=p
c
+p
f
+p
s

Selecting Collision Type
Now that you have everything
determined in terms of probability, once
you get to a collision site, you
Pick a random number to determine
what interaction occurs:
Capture (kill) the particle, or
Fission occurs, bank extra neutrons, or
Scatter particle (another random number
is picked for direction & energy loss) and
transport again.
Moderator Ratios
Material
E
s
(cm
-1
) E
a
(cm
-1
)
MR
H
2
O 0.927 1.47 0.022 62
D
2
O (pure) 0.510 0.35 0.000033 5500
D
2
O (99.75%) 0.510 0.35 0.000088 2050
D
2
O (99%) 0.510 0.35 0.000253 710
BeO 0.174 0.69 0.00068 180
Graphite 0.158 0.38 0.00027 220

a
s
MR
E
E
=
where the lethargy
(average change in neutron
energy per collision)
o
o
o
ln
1
1
(
+ =
Note: in a moderator, there is no fissionable material,
f
=0.
A good moderator is something that slows down neutrons
without absorbing too many of them in the process, i.e. it has a
high MR.
Energy Dependence
In a real simulation, the cross-sections
will be represented in a table form
(Energy versus cross-section) or by a
continuous function (or functions).
Energy (MeV) E
a
E
f
E
s
1E-8 10 3 5
1E-7 11 4 6
.
.
10 1E-3 1E-5 20
Fission Neutrons
In a real simulation, the number of fission neutrons
emitted depends on the kind of fissionable material,
and the energy of the initiating neutron.
Anywhere from zero to five neutrons could be
emitted during fission!
The average number of emitted neutrons is
represented by v (nu) in the Boltzmann Transport
Equation (lead coefficient of the creation from fission term)
For U
235
, v 2.4 neutrons per fission
For Pu
238
, v 2.9 neutrons per fission

Deterministic Modelling
The behaviour of physical processes can
often be described mathematically by
ordinary or partial differential equations,
for example:
Heat flow: diffusion equation
Reactor physics: neutron transport
equation
Fluid flow: Navier-Stokes equation
Often, these equations are
representations of one of the
Conservation Laws (Energy, Momentum,
Mass)
Solving Differential Equations
An analytical solution would describe
exactly and continuously such things as
temperature, pressure, mass, density,
charge, neutron flux, etc., at any point in
time and space.
Example:

BUT, an exact analytical solution is often
very difficult to determine in real-world
applications, due to:
irregular shape of the solution domain,
non-linearities within the solution domain.
irregular or fluctuating boundary conditions.
dx
x df
x f
) (
) ( =
x
e x f = ) (
Approximate Solutions
Relatively simple algebraic equations can be
used, with care, to approximate the solution to
a partial differential equation.

Generally, the continuous system represented
by a differential equation is reduced to an
equivalent discrete system of several simpler
equations that approximate the continuous
system.

Digital computers provide the computational
power needed to solve the discrete system of
algebraic equations (matrices).
First Step - Discretization
The problem space is broken up into
smaller pieces or regions.
Each region has a central point, referred
to as a node.
The properties of the region are
averaged over the region, and considered
to be concentrated or lumped at the
node.
A node interacts with adjacent nodes
through the interface between the two
adjacent regions they occupy.
Taylor Series
The Taylor series expansion is a very useful
starting point for deriving approximations to
derivatives. For any continuous function f(x)
with continuous derivatives of any order, we
can write

This holds at every point in the function, but
involves an infinite number of terms. If we
approximate the series with only a finite
number of the most significant terms, we can
derive something useful.
) (
!
) (
) ( ) (
1
x
dx
f d
n
x
x f x x f
n
n
n
n
=
A
+ = A +
Truncating Higher Order
Terms
Lets truncate the series to remove
terms that we hope will be
insignificant. This will convert the
series from an infinite series to just
a finite number of terms.

4
3 2
) ( O ) ( ' ' '
6
) (
) ( ' '
2
) (
) ( ' ) ( ) ( x x f
x
x f
x
x xf x f x x f A +
A
+
A
+ A + = A +
[A]
where

dx
df
f = '
2
2
' '
dx
f d
f =
3
3
' ' '
dx
f d
f =

Truncated
terms

Truncation Error: O(h
n
)
The truncated terms will be represented
by the notation O(h
n
) which means a
term that varies as h
n
when h is small
enough, or more briefly, a term of
order h
n.

The discarded terms in our
approximation, O(h
n
), is referred to as
the truncation error.
If the truncation error approaches zero
as h approaches zero, the approximation
is said to converge on the exact solution.
Note Ax, h are interchangable, meaning a small change in x
Approximation of
x A
4
3 2
) ( ) ( ' ' '
6
) (
) ( ' '
2
) (
) ( ' ) ( ) ( x O x f
x
x f
x
x xf x f x x f A +
A
A
+ A = A
[B]
If we substitute for in [A], we get the following:
x A
If we isolate
) ( ' x f in equation [A] or [B], we have the following:
) (
) ( ) (
) ( '
) (
) ( ) (
) ( '
x O
x
x x f x f
x f
x O
x
x f x x f
x f
A +
A
A
=
A +
A
A +
=
dx
df
f = '
The forward difference
The backward difference
4
3 2
) ( O ) ( ' ' '
6
) (
) ( ' '
2
) (
) ( ' ) ( ) ( x x f
x
x f
x
x xf x f x x f A +
A
+
A
+ A + = A +
[A]
First Derivative Approximation
( x, f(x) )
( x+Ax, f(x+Ax) )
Ax
truncation error of order (Ax)
2
( x+Ax, f(x)+Ax
df
dx
(x) )
Reduce Ax for Better Approximation
(x,f(x))
(x+Ax,f(x+Ax))
Ax
truncation error of order (Ax)
2
( x+Ax, f(x)+Ax
df
dx
(x) )
When the truncation error terms are dropped, we have finite
difference approximations to replace and .

Using these approximations, we can replace a differential
equation with algebraic equations that should be much easier to
solve, especially if we take advantage of the power of digital
computers.
Approximation of

Adding [A] and [B] and solving for , we get the following:
) ( ' ' x f
2
2
' '
dx
f d
f =
) ( ' ' x f
2
2
) (
) (
) ( ) ( 2 ) (
) ( ' ' x O
x
x x f x f x x f
x f A +
A
A + A +
=
) ( ' x f
4
3 2
) ( ) ( ' ' '
6
) (
) ( ' '
2
) (
) ( ' ) ( ) ( x O x f
x
x f
x
x xf x f x x f A +
A
A
+ A = A [B]
4
3 2
) ( O ) ( ' ' '
6
) (
) ( ' '
2
) (
) ( ' ) ( ) ( x x f
x
x f
x
x xf x f x x f A +
A
+
A
+ A + = A +
[A]
Example: Heat Conduction
Numerical methods are often used to solve problems in heat
conduction.

As you may know, heat always flows from a hotter area to a
cooler area. The rate of heat transfer depends on the
temperature gradient, and on the physical properties of medium
through which the heat is moving.

The heat transfer process is mathematically represented by
Fouriers law, otherwise known as the diffusion equation. In
Cartesian coordinates:
t
T
z
T
y
T
x
T
c
c
=
c
c
+
c
c
+
c
c
T
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
p
T
C
k
=
where thermal diffusivity
= density (kg/m
3
)
C
p
= specific heat (J/kg-K)
k = thermal conductivity (W/m-K)
One-Dimensional Heat Conduction
Lets look at a greatly simplified heat conduction problem,
and use finite differences to develop an approximate
solution.

If we consider a rod of some material, coated in a
perfect insulator except at one end where it contacts
some surface that changes in temperature in a known
way, we should be able to simplify this to a heat
conduction problem in only one spatial dimension, i.e. the
one-dimensional diffusion equation will apply:
t
T
1
x
T
T
2
2
c
c
=
c
c
Simple Heat Transfer
Divide up the rod into equally sized regions Ax in length, with
nodes (numbered above from 1 to 7) at the center of each
region.
Write finite difference equations representing the diffusion
equation at each node to determine the temperatures at
discrete time intervals of At
Solve these equations iteratively, starting from known initial
conditions.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0
x
T
=
c
c
( ) t T
F
Ax
Internal Nodes
An internal node i interacts with adjacent
nodes i-1 and i+1 and is separated from
each adjacent node by a distance Ax
t
T
1
x
T
T
2
2
c
c
=
c
c
| | | |
2
T
i 1 i 1 i i
T
2
x) (
t
r where
(t) T r 2 1 (t) T (t) T r t) (t T
t
t) T(x, t) t T(x,
x) (
t) 2T(x, t) x, T(x t) x, T(x
A
=
+ + = +
+
=
A
+ +
+
Substituting the derivatives with finite differences
At the boundaries
Boundary conditions sometimes complicate things,
but there are tricks we can apply that work.
At the insulated end (node 7), we need to satisfy
the no heat transfer condition. There is no
node 8, but we achieve the same effect by
assuming there IS a node 8 that is identical in
temperature to node 6. We then write an Internal
Node equation as if there is a node 8!
6 7 8
Let T
8
(t)=T
6
(t)
| | | | ) (t T r 2 1 (t) T 2r t) (t T
7 6 7
+ = +
At the boundaries
At the left-hand end, the temperature is simply
the value of the forcing function, T
F
(t). This
temperature can be assumed to apply at an
imaginary node zero (similar to the other end
of the rod where we artificially added a node
8)

Note that we need not have any concern about
what kind of function T
F
(t) is as long as we have
values of T
F
(t) at each time interval!

| | | | (t) T r 2 1 (t) T (t) T r t) (t T
1 F 2 1
+ + = +
Matrix Representation
t t
F
t
T
T
T
T
T
T
T t rT
T
T
T
T
T
T
T
r r
r r r
r r r
r r r
r r r
r r r
r r
A +
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
=
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
+
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
) (
2 1 2 0 0 0 0 0
2 1 0 0 0 0
0 2 1 0 0 0
0 0 2 1 0 0
0 0 0 2 1 0
0 0 0 0 2 1
0 0 0 0 0 2 1
Most elements of the matrix are fixed values,
based on the material properties that make up the
(constant) thermal diffusivity.
Calculate the forcing function, then the T
i
values.
We have a solution?
Given:
Temperatures at every node at
time t=0, AND
Values of T
F
(t) at each time
interval,
we can estimate the rod temperature at
any node at any time interval by solving
our seven equations for the seven
unknowns (i.e the temperatures at the
next time interval)

Improvements to Accuracy
As we reduce At or Ax, our
approximations should become better
BUT
We cannot know exactly how big the
truncation error is (because it is an
infinite series!)- we hope that it is
getting smaller with smaller As.
We incur a higher computing effort
(more nodes, more time intervals).
We run into a potential problem with
stability!

Stability
there is a potential problem with the explicit finite difference
method.

If we carelessly pick Ax and At, the solution may go UNSTABLE,
and predict nothing accurately!

If we let the coefficient of T
i
(t) go negative (i.e. any diagonal
entry in the solution matrix <0), we will have an unstable
calculation!

Thus r < is a requirement for stability. If At is too big, or Ax is
too small, in effect we are trying to transfer too much heat in
each iteration.

Physically, this would represent heat flowing backwards a
violation of the second law of thermodynamics!

2
1
) ( C
t
2
p
<
A
A
=
x
r
T o
Improvements to stability
To avoid stability problems, pick intervals
carefully, OR
Reformulate using an implicit method instead:
e.g. replace the time derivative with a
backward difference instead of a forward
difference

This will result in an equation at each node relating the
current nodal temperature to the future temperatures of
the node and its adjoining neighbours.

A more complex solution of simultaneous equations in the
unknowns (the future temperatures) will result, but its
solution will be guaranteed to be stable, even if we use
much bigger values for the time interval.
Implicit Method
| | | |
2
T
i 1 i 1 i i
T
2
x) (
t
r where
(t) T 1 r 2 (t) T (t) T r t) (t T
t
t) - t T(x, t) T(x,
x) (
t) 2T(x, t) x, T(x t) x, T(x
A
=
+ + + =
A
=
A
+ +
+
Use the BACKWARD difference approximation for the time derivative
Implicit Method Matrix Solution
t t
F
t
T
T
T
T
T
T
t rT T
T
T
T
T
T
T
T
r r
r r r
r r r
r r r
r r r
r r r
r r
A
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
+
=
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
) (
1 2 2 0 0 0 0 0
1 2 0 0 0 0
0 1 2 0 0 0
0 0 1 2 0 0
0 0 0 1 2 0
0 0 0 0 1 2
0 0 0 0 0 1 2
Matrix Inversion
The matrix A is called tridiagonal because it has only three
diagonals of -r, (2r+1), and -r.

It is diagonally dominant because the absolute value of each
element of the diagonal is greater than the sum of the
absolute values of the elements on the same row off the
diagonal, i.e. |2r+1| > |-r| + |-r|.

This assures that A
-1
can be determined, and the solution is
stable.
AT
t+t
=T
t
A
-1
A T
t+t
= A
-1
T
t
T
t+t
= A
-1
T
t

Coming up
OPG Tour of Simulators on Nov. 14
th
,
1:00PM or 3:00PM. Map and
details posted on WebCT. Please
carpool!

Quiz Nov. 18
th

Assignment due Nov. 22
nd
.

Lecture 8 Topics
Deterministic Modelling, Pt. 2
Practical Applications in Heat
Transfer and Hydraulic
Modelling
Recall from Last Lecture
We replace differentials with finite difference
approximations
Our approximations are derived using Taylor Series
When we truncate the Taylor Series to a finite
number of terms, the terms we threw away
constitute the truncation error.
The order of the truncation error is determined by
the coefficient of the first discarded term
The error generally shrinks as Ax 0,

Other Errors (besides Truncation
Error)
Boundary conditions may also have to be
approximated by finite differences, which
may introduce additional discretization
errors (e.g. if our forcing function T
F
(t) in
the heat conduction example had to be
approximated using finite differences).

Any computation (such as in a digital
computer) not carried out to an infinite
number of digits will introduce round-off
error, e.g.
0.1
10
=0.000110011001100110011
2

Round-off Errors
Round-off error was more of a problem
when computers only used 16 bits (accuracy
about 1 part in 32768)
Now, most computers use at least 32 bits
for real number representations (1 in 10
7
accuracy), and can possibly use 64 bits or
better.
Still, you can get significant round-off
error when calculating a-b if ab, or
a+b if ab,
At some point, if you keep reducing interval
size (Ax 0), round-off error becomes
more significant than truncation error
A Real Heat Conduction Example
Large motors must be protected
from overload. If too much load is
put on a motor, the motor windings
will overheat and can burn out,
requiring replacement of the motor.
All motors have large starting
currents of about six times normal
running current, but this starting
current lasts only a short time.
Motor Overload Protection
If a fuse is used to protect against
overload, it must activate at over
six times normal running current, or
it will always activate when the
motor is turned on.
If a large motor runs continuously
at more than about 120% normal
running current, it will probably
burn out.
Simple fuse protection is unsuitable.
M
M
M
M
START
STOP
OVERLOAD RELAY
Motor Overload Protection
The heater will heat up a
bimetallic strip, which will open
a contact to stop the motor if
the temperature rises above a
setpoint temperature.
Because the heater and
bimetallic strip take time to heat
up, the high starting current will
be allowed to pass without
activating the overload relay.

However, sustained high current
will eventually stop the motor.
Motor
Contactor
Relay
Instead of a fuse, a
small heater is used
to provide a thermal
image of the motors
windings.
Power
Source
Thermal Overload Relay Model
Modeling a thermal overload relay is a
simple heat conduction problem.
We need only one node, representing the
heaters and bimetallic strip.
The node is heated by the current in the
heater, at a rate proportional to the
current squared.
The node is cooled by conduction to its
surroundings, roughly proportional to the
node temperature above ambient
temperature.
Conservation of Energy Equation
The rate of temperature increase of the node is proportional to the
energy added by the heating elements, and the energy removed by
heat dissipation to the surroundings.
) (
2
AMB
T T kI
dt
dT
= where is a dissipation constant
and k is a heating constant
As current increases, the temperature will increase until thermal
equilibrium is achieved.

Let I
SP
be the maximum allowed continuous current that is safe for the
motor. The maximum temperature T
SP
will then be the equilibrium
temperature for that current, at which we want the overload relay to
activate.
SP AMB SP SP
T T T kI A = = ) (
2
2
SP
SP
I
T
k
A
=

) (
2
2
AMB SP
SP
T T T
I
I
dt
dT
A =
At equilibrium, the temperature change over time is zero; therefore:
Approximating using the forward difference approximation
for the time derivative:
| |
(
A
+ A + A = A +
2
2
1 ) ( ) ( I
I
T
T t t t T t t T
SP
SP
AMB

Subtracting T
AMB
from both sides simplifies the
calculation:
| |
2
2
1 ) ( ) (
) ( ) (
I
I
T t
t t T t t T
T t T t T Let
SP
SP
AMB
A A
+ A A = A + A
= A
Summary
The value of AT is updated each iteration based on the
current flow to the motor.
If AT calculated by the approximation above
exceeds AT
SP
, the overload relay will activate.
Typically, an overload relay is set to operate at
115% of full-load current.
The dissipation factor is typically chosen to yield about a
ten-second delay in detecting overload, so that the
starting current transient of about six times full-load can
pass without initiating detection of the overload condition.
Hydraulics Modelling:
Fluids in Nuclear Plants
Fluid dynamics problems are very common in
nuclear plant simulations, because there are many
systems through which water, oil, or gases flow.

Typically, we are interested in computing the
pressures and flows within these systems at
successive time intervals, because these quantities:
directly influence other, connected systems, or
are quantities that must be monitored or
controlled to maintain production or safety.
Generally, we derive the
fluid system pressures at
key locations in a system
which we treat as nodes.
In other words, we
discretize a system of
pipes, valves, pumps,
filters, tanks, and the like
by placing nodes where we
want to calculate the
system pressures (i.e.
where pressure
measurements are made,
or at common headers
where flows divide or
converge.
We then approximate the governing equations, and solve for the current
pressure at each node based on the previous flows to and from each node.

Using these new nodal pressures, we then estimate any change in the flows
between the nodes.
Now lets derive some way of approximating pressure variations and
flows between nodes in hydraulic circuits.

In any volume of a fluid, pressure varies with density and with
depth h (or elevation).

We know that

Let consider elevation changes first. Whenever we dive to the
bottom of a pool, we feel how pressure increases with increasing
water depth. Whenever we go higher into the atmosphere in a plane,
we feel how the air pressure drops.

We know intuitively that pressure changes with elevation in fluids.
What about changes in density?

i
i
i
i
i
i
h
p
dh
p
d dp
c
c
+
c
c
=
If a fluid is incompressible, such as water near

room temperature, a very large change in pressure
would be required to cause a small change in water
density. Conversely, a very small density change
can be expected to cause a very large pressure
change.

This can be demonstrated using a simple
apparatus: a syringe filled with water.

In comparison, (and perhaps contrary to our
expectations) the rate of change of pressure with
elevation is much smaller in magnitude than the
rate of change of pressure with density.

dp
i
=
cp
i
c
i
d
i
That is,

cp
i
c
i
>>
cp
i
ch
i
Therefore, a good approximation for incompressible flow
is obtained by dropping the second term:
For a control volume (an arbitrary fixed volume of fluid,
such as the region associated with one of our nodes in the
discretized system), we can express the density in terms of
the mass in the control volume.

m
i
=
i
V
i
d
i
=
dm
i
V
i
where m
i
is the mass, and
V
i
is the volume of control volume i
[1]
[2]
Conservation of Mass can be applied to the control volume. The change
in its mass must equal the net inflow of mass to the control volume.
dm/dt w : flowrate mass [3] dt w dt w dm
out in i
= =

dp
i
dt
=
1
V
i
cp
c
w
in
w
out

(

(
(

p
i
(t + At) = p
i
(t)+ C
i
At w(t)
Substituting [2] and [3] into [1] yields the following:

[4]
Applying a forward difference approximation to [4] over the time
interval At yields the following basis equation of pressure integration:
where C
i
= is essentially constant

1
V
i
cp
c
and w(t) are flows into node i
Pressure Integration
C
i
represents a nodal capacitance, related to how the node
will change in fluid mass with changes in pressure.

Unfortunately, one of the great drawbacks of the pressure
integration method is that the iteration time step used is
usually too large to allow C
i
to be selected strictly from the
fluid properties and the control volume sizes.

Instability results unless the nodal capacitances are made
artificially high to slow down any pressure changes.
Although correct results are obtained for steady-state,
sluggish transient pressure response can be expected because
of the excess capacitance.

Pressure integration is a simple technique, but only suited to
systems that mostly operate in steady-state, or where
transient response is not critical.
Conservation of Energy for
Fluids
The modified Bernoulli Equation is essentially a
restatement of Conservation of Energy for a fluid
particle in an incompressible flow stream, taking
into account energy lost due to turbulence:

p
1
+
V
1
2
2
+ gh
1
=
p
2
+
V
2
2
2
+ gh
2
+ K
V
2
2
where p
1
and p
2
are the upstream and downstream pressures at two
adjacent nodes,
V
1
and V
2
are the fluid velocities (average ) at the two nodes,
h
1
and h
2
are the node elevations,
is the fluid density,
g is the gravitational acceleration constant, and
K is a friction coefficient which depends on the shape and roughness of
the flow path, and the fluid viscosity (fluid internal friction).
V
[5]
In the modified Bernoulli equation, the first three terms
on each side of the equation represent respectively the
pressure energy, kinetic energy, and potential energy of
the fluid at each node.

The extra term on the left side is the approximate
energy lost to friction as it flows from node 1 to node 2
due to the fluids viscosity and friction at the boundaries
(pipe walls).
Most often, fluid flow is turbulent (Reynolds number
>2300), and thus the friction term varies with the
square of the flow velocity.
Equation Terms

p
1
+
V
1
2
2
+ gh
1
=
p
2
+
V
2
2
2
+ gh
2
+ K
V
2
2
Friction Reduces Pressure
If the flow velocities are not significantly different at the
two nodes, the energy lost due to friction in going from node
1 to node 2 will result in a drop in pressure between the
nodes. Pressure can also be affected by a change in
elevation, i.e. for turbulent incompressible flow:

p
1
p
2
+ g h
1
h
2
( )
= C w
12
2
where w
12
is the flow from node 1 to node 2
Letting , and solving for the mass flow rate:

w
12
= A
12
p
1
p
2
+ g(h
1
- h
2
)
C
1
A
12
=
[6]
Flow vs. Pressure
In other words, the flow rate in turbulent
incompressible flow between nodes is roughly
proportional to the square-root of the pressure
difference between those nodes (if their
elevation is the same):

The Conservation of Energy equation will yield
different simplifications if the flow is not
turbulent or is compressible (because some
derivative terms dp/d are no longer negligible!)

w
12
= A
12
p
1
p
2
Flow vs. Pressure
If the flow is
laminar and
incompressible (a
typical example is
oil), the flow rate
typically varies in
direct proportion to
the pressure
difference:
If the flow is
compressible (i.e. a gas),
the flow rate usually
varies in direct proportion
to the square root of the
difference of the
pressures squared
(provided the pressure
difference is not too large,
and the speed of the flow is
not nearly supersonic):

w
12
= A
12
( p
1
p
2
)

w
12
= A
12
p
1
2
p
2
2
Flow Example 1
Consider a simple situation
in which a tank (swimming
pool) with a horizontal
cross-section area of A is
being filled by a flow with a
known mass flowrate of w
in
We can easily estimate the water mass m
T

and the level h in the tank:

dm
T
dt
= w
in
dm
T
= w
in
dt
m
T
(t + At) = m
T
(t) + At w
in
(t)

=
m
T
V
=
m
T
Ah
h =
m
T
A
Flow Example 2
w
in
m
T
h
Now, the inflow is entering at
the bottom of the tank. The
hydrostatic pressure of the
water already in the tank will
affect the pressure at the
bottom of the tank where the
water is entering. The water
source will have to overcome this
hydrostatic pressure to push
water into the tank.
Let P
T
be the pressure at the tank bottom, and let us assume
that the tank is open to the atmosphere. Then:

P
T
=P
atm
+ gh
P
T
P
atm

Flow (Pressure Difference)

If the water flowing into the
tank is from a constant
pressure source P
s
, then we
can estimate the expected
flow into the tank by knowing
what the pressure is where
the water enters the tank
from the source:
T S ST in
P P A w =
A
ST
is a constant that we can derive experimentally, or we
can estimate it using empirical formulae based on the pipe
roughness, and the presence of any elbows, valves, or other
flow disruptions, as explained in many fluid mechanics texts.
Solving Example 2
0. Establish Initial Conditions: At t=0, m
T
is known.
P
s
is known. A
ST
, g, r, A(surface area) are known.

m
T
(t +At) =m
T
(t)+Atw
in
(t)
4. Go back to step 1 for next iteration.
3. Determine new flow into tank based on new bottom pressure:
2. Determine new tank level and bottom pressure:

h =
m
T
A

P
T
=P
atm
+ gh
T S ST in
P P A w =
1. Solve for new tank mass based on the previous mass and inflow:
Flow Example 3
w
in
m
T
h
P
S
P
T
P
C
For the next example, we
will close off the top of the
tank. This is typical of tanks
in some industrial
applications, including
nuclear plant systems. If
the tank is not somehow
vented to the atmosphere,
the cover gas will change
pressure as the tank level
changes.
Water entering the tank will take up a portion of the tank volume,
compressing the cover gas into the remaining tank volume. The cover
gas pressure will in turn influence the bottom pressure in the tank, and
the flow into the tank.

As you would expect, when the tank fills sufficiently, the bottom
pressure will approach the source pressure, and inflow will stop.
Solving Example 3
0. Establish Initial Conditions:
At t=0, m
T
is known. P
s
and P
c
is known.
A
ST
, g, r, A are known

1. Solve for the tank mass based on the previous mass and the
inflow:

m
T
(t +At) =m
T
(t)+At w
in
(t)
2. Determine new tank level:

h(t + At) =
m
T
(t + At)
A
The cover gas volume will change with a change in h. It drops as
much as the water volume has increased in the tank.

The cover gas is usually air, or is sometimes an inert gas like
helium. Either way, it is not a bad approximation to treat it like an
ideal gas:
Solving Example 3 (cont.)
constant nRT PV ~ =

P
C
(t + At)V
C
(t + At) = P
C
(t)V
C
(t)
P
C
(t + At) =
P
C
(t)V
C
(t)
V
C
(t + At)
The change in cover gas volume resulted from the change in water mass:

m
T
= V
T
dm
T
dt
=
dV
T
dt
~ w
in
(t)
dV
C
dt
=
dV
T
dt
~
w
in
(t)
Assumes temperature is
not changing
Solving Example 3
6. Go back to 1 for next iteration.
5. Determine flow into tank based on new bottom pressure:

P
T
(t +At) =P
C
(t +At)+ gh(t +At)

w
in
(t + At) = A
ST
P
S
P
T
(t + At)
3. Determine the change in cover gas volume and pressure:

V
C
(t + At) = V
C
(t) + At
dV
C
dt
= V
C
(t) At
w
in
(t)
P
C
(t + At) =
P
C
(t)V
C
(t)
V
C
(t) At
w
in
(t)
4. Determine tank bottom pressure:

Nuclear Plant Examples
In a nuclear station, the heat transport and
moderator systems hold >60 megagrams of heavy
water, which costs about $300k/Mg. Evaporation
of heavy water can be expensive, as well as a
potential radiation hazard if it contains tritium, so
it is typically contained in closed systems.

Because heavy water (like most materials) expands
with increasing temperature, there must be some
means to accommodate the expansion of the heavy
water in the heat transport system when it goes
from about 20C at shutdown to 285C at normal
operating temperature.
The D
2
O storage tank is a closed vessel with a helium cover gas, used to accommodate the change in
density with temperature of the heavy water in the heat transport system. At shutdown, the D
2
O
storage tank level is relatively low, but as the heat transport system temperature is increased, pressure
in the heat transport system is kept relatively constant by bleeding off heavy water from the heat
transport system to the D
2
O storage tank.
Another example
Flows & Pressures in Piping Networks
For an essentially incompressible fluid, the mass flow
rates into a node must add to zero:
where w
ji
is the flow to node i from
node j and where w
Si
represents the
flow to node i from an external source
of pressure or a known external flow
into the system.

0 w w
j
ji Si
= +
1
2
4
5
3
S1
S5
w
12
w
24
w
45
w
S5
w
34
w
13
w
S1
p
1
p
3
p
2
p
4
p
5
0 w w
0 w w w
0 w w
0 w w
0 w w w
S5 45
45 34 24
34 13
24 12
13 12 S1
= +
= +
=
=
=
We can write Conservation of Mass equations for the internal nodes:
Let the admittance between two adjoining nodes be defined as follows:

a
ij
=
A
ij
p
i
p
j
+ g(h
i
- h
j
)
Recalling equation [6]:
[7]
1
2
4
5
3
S1
S5

w
12
= A
ij
p
1
p
2
+ g(h
1
- h
2
)
[6]
Admittance Matrix Solution
Rewriting the above conservation of mass equations for each
node yields linear equations in the unknowns, p
i
. We have
linearized the system of equations with our definition of
admittance so they can be easily solved.

0 ) p p ( a ) p p ( a
0 ) p p ( a ) p p ( a ) p p ( a
0 ) p p ( a ) p p ( a
0 ) p p ( a ) p p ( a
0 ) p p ( a ) p p ( a ) p p ( a
5 5 S5 5 4 45
5 4 45 4 3 34 4 2 24
4 3 34 3 1 13
4 2 24 2 1 12
3 1 13 2 1 12 1 S1 S1
=
= +
=
=
=
S
Lets assume for simplicity that all nodes are at the same elevation.
Then, combining [6] and [7], we have equations of the following form:
) p (p a w
j i ij ij
=
Regrouping
S5 S5 S5 45 5 45 4
45 5 45 34 24 4 34 3 24 2
34 4 34 13 3 13 1
24 4 24 12 2 12 1
S1 S1 13 3 12 2 13 12 S1 1
a p ) a (a p ) a ( p
0 ) a ( p ) a a ( p ) a ( p ) a ( p
0 ) a ( p ) a (a p ) a ( p
0 ) a ( p ) a (a p ) a ( p
a p ) a ( p ) a ( p ) a a (a p
= + +
= + + + + +
= + + +
= + + +
= + + + +
a
(
(
(
(
(
(
=
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
+
+ +
+
+
+ +
S5 S5
S1 S1
5
4
3
2
1
S5 45 45
45 45 34 24 34 24
34 34 13 13
24 24 12 12
13 12 13 12 S1
p a
0
0
0
p a
p
p
p
p
p
a a a 0 0 0
a a a a a a 0
0 a a a 0 a
0 a 0 a a a
0 0 a a a a a
Admittance Matrix Method
We can now solve a linear system of equations of
the form Ap = s, where A is the admittance
matrix, p is the vector of unknown pressures we
are trying to determine, and s is the source
vector of external pressures or flows.

1. Determine A from eq. [7] (Note that we use the
pressures from the previous iteration to estimate
admittances for the next iteration.)

2. Invert matrix A and calculate new pressures:
p = A
-1
s

3. Use eq. [6] to determine flows based on new
pressures.
We should always be able to invert the
admittance matrix A if its diagonal
elements are all positive, and some of its
off-diagonal elements are negative (i.e. the
matrix is positive definite and diagonally
dominant)
A zero admittance off-diagonal matrix
element represents:
A non-existent flow path between the nodes, or
A blocked flow path (e.g. a closed valve)
between nodes, which could split the flow
network in two!
Once we know new pressures, new flows can
be easily determined.
We can enhance the stability and realism
of the admittance matrix approach by
adding a small capacitance at each node as
a source.
This helps with paths that may close (i.e.
when a valve closes).
The transient response is slowed down a
little, but is guaranteed to be solvable in
all circumstances.
Darlington Feedwater System
Portion of Darlington Feedwater Model Admittance Matrix (18 by 18)
Node C D E F K L B A X
Pressure Sources index 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
PCX(1)
AOC(1)[POX+PSH(1)]+
ACT(1)*PC1+Cap/t*PCX(1)
1
AOC(1)
+ACB(1)
+ACT(1)
0 0 0 0 0 -ACB(1) 0 0
PCX(2)
AOC(2)[POX+PSH(2)]+
2 0
AOC(2)
+ACB(2)
+ACT(2)
0 0 0 0 -ACB(2) 0 0
PCX(3)
AOC(3)[POX+PSH(3)]+
3 0 0
AOC(3)
+ACB(3)
+ACT(3)
0 0 0 -ACB(3) 0 0
PCX(4)
AOC(4)[POX+PSH(4)]+
4 0 0 0
AOC(4)
+ACB(4)
+ACT(4)
0 0 -ACB(4) 0 0
PKX(1)
AOC(5)[POX+PSH(5)]+
5 0 0 0 0
AOC(5)
+AKX(1)
+ACT(5)
0 0 0 -AKX(1)
PKX(2)
AOC(6)[POX+PSH(6)]+
6 0 0 0 0 0
AOC(6)
+AKX(2)
+ACT(6)
0 0 -AKX(2)
PBX
ABRKB*TAPAMB
+Cap/t*PBX
7 -ACB(1) -ACB(2) -ACB(3) -ACB(4) 0 0
ACB(1)+ACB(2)
+ACB(3)+ACB(4)
+ABA+ABRKB
-ABA 0
PAX
ABRKA*TAPAMB
+Cap/t*PAX
8 0 0 0 0 0 0 -ABA
AAM1(1)+AAM1(2)
+AAM1(3)+AAM1(4)
+ABA+AXA+ABRK
A
-AXA
PXX Cap/t*PXX 9 0 0 0 0 -AKX(1) -AKX(2) 0 -AXA
AKX(1)+AKX(2)+
AXA+AXY
PYX
PPX(1)*AYP(1)+PPX(2)*
AYP(2)+PPX(3)*AYP(3)
+PPX(4)*AYP(4)+AU1S*PU1S
+AU1D*PU1D+AU3S*PU3S
+AU3D*PU3D+AU4S*PU4S
+AU4D*PU4D+AXY*PXX
+Cap/t*PYX
10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -AXY
PM1(1)
ABRM1(1)*TAPAMB+
PM1(1)*AM1N1(1)
+Cap/t*PM1(1)
11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -AAM1(1) 0
TOUR on Saturday, 1PM or 3PM
QUIZ next week:
All materials in lecture folders
Concentrate on principles, definitions,
basic derivations (e.g. using Taylor
Series)
Not so much on MATLAB
45-90 min. to complete
ASSIGNMENT
LAST of my lectures in 2 weeks
Lecture 9
Marks posted for OPG Tour, Assignment 4
Return of Quiz 2.
Assignment 4 still to be marked
Next Week: Wrap up - Prof. Kaye

Simplifications and Assumptions
Often, to make a practical model,
assumptions and simplifications are
required.
Assumptions and simplifications should
ALWAYS be stated.
Assumptions may not always be correct
or may result in misleading results. When
in doubt, review model assumptions!
Assumption is the mother of all
screwups

Euler Method
Problems involving a first order differential equation, and
an initial condition, i.e. a kind of Initial Value Problem:

dy
dt
= y' = f (t, y) y(0) = y
0

y' = f (t
n
, y
n
) ~
y
n+1
y
n
h
y
n+1
~ y
n
+ hf (t
n
, y
n
)
We calculate x
n+1,
= x
n
+h from x
n
, and the forward
difference approximation gives us y
n+1
based on x
n
, y
n
, as
follows:
Note: Our guess for the next value of y is based on the
slope at the start of the interval h when using the forward
difference approximation.
Euler Method
It is an explicit method and it is
single-step, meaning the next
value comes from previous known
values in a simple straightforward
calculation.
Easy to calculate, but not that
accurate (i.e of order h, O(h)), and
subject to instability in certain
circumstances.
Why unstable?

Consider a very simple example:
y = ay

If we use the forward difference approximation:

y
n+1
= y
n
+hay
n
= (1+ha)y
n

If we extend this back to y
0
, we can say

y
n+1
= (1+ha)
n+1
y
0

For a bounded (stable) solution, |1+ha|<1, or else
the solution is unstable.

Stability of Explicit Methods
|1+ha|<1 h is between -2/a and
0
(note a<0, and solution is y=y
0
e
a(x-x
0
)

)

This sets a very tight restriction on
how big h can be!
Any tiny error (e.g. round off error)
will grow without bound if |1+ha|>1

Implicit Euler Method
We calculate x
n+1,
= x
n
+h from x
n
, and the
backward difference approximation gives us an
equation for y
n+1
based on x
n
, y
n
, and y
n+1
as
follows:

) , (
) , ( '
1 1 1
1
1 1
+ + +
+
+ +
+ ~
~ =
n n n n
n n
n n
y t hf y y
h
y y
y t f y
Note: Our guess for the next value of y is based on the slope at
the end of the interval h for the backward difference
approximation.
Note also: More computing is required to solve for y
n+1
Stabilty: Implicit Euler
Consider the same simple example:
y = ay (remember, a<0)

If we use the backward difference approximation:
y
n+1
= y
n
+hay
n+1

or y
n+1
= y
n
(1-ha)
-1

Extend this back to y
0

y
n+1
= (1-ha)
-(n+1)
y
0

For a bounded solution, (1-ha)>1, which is true for ANY h!
Improved Accuracy
There are other ways to improve the
accuracy of finite difference methods
(other than simply reducing interval
size).
Three of them are
Midpoint method - O(h
2
)
Heuns Method, RK2 - O(h
2
)
Runge-Kutta method, RK4 - O(h
4
)
(t
n+1
,y
n
+hf(t
n
,y
n
))
y
t
(t
n+1
,y
n+1
)
(t
n
,y
n
)
h
Euler Method
Heuns Method
Average the slopes at either end of the
interval.

Has higher accuracy, because Forward
Difference tends to guess to one side of
curve, while Backward Difference tends to
estimate to the other side, and the best
slope is nearly always in between.
Also known as RK2
)] , ( )
~
, ( [
2
) , (
~
1 1 1
1
n n n n n n
n n n n
y t f y t f
h
y y
y t hf y y
+ + ~
+ ~
+ + +
+
h/2 h/2
Euler method
(t
n
,f(t
n
))
Heun method
(t
n+1
,f(t
n+1
))
(t
n+1
,y
n
+h/2*[f(t
n
,y
n
)+f(t
n
,y
n
+hf(t
n
,y
n
)])
Midpoint Method
To improve the estimate, lets use
the slope at the midpoint of the
interval instead of at the start
and/or end:

)) , (
2
,
2
(
1 n n n n n n
y t f
h
y
h
t hf y y + + + ~
+
h/2 h/2
Euler method
a
b
Midpoint method
(t
n+1
,f(t
n+1
))
(t
n
,f(t
n
))
Runge-Kutta Method
More properly known as the Runge-Kutta
fourth order method,or RK4, it is one of a
class of Runge-Kutta methods. Lots of
information and demos are available on the
internet, as this is the standard method.
RK4 uses a weighted average of four slopes to
give a better approximation of how much a
function changes over an interval.
MATLAB function: ode45 for the explicit RK4
method, ode15s for the implicit RK4 method.
Error of order O(h
5
) at each step, O(h
4
)
overall.

Runge-Kutta Method

Numerically approximating y' = f (t, y), given t
0
, y
0
:
t
n+1
= t
n
+ h
a = f (t
n
, y
n
)
b = f (t
n
+
h
2
, y
n
+
h
2
a)
c = f (t
n
+
h
2
, y
n
+
h
2
b)
d = f (t
n
+ h, y
n
+ hc)
y
n+1
= y
n
+
h
6
a + 2b + 2c + d
| |
h/2 h/2
Euler method
a
b
Midpoint method
c
d
Slope
(a+2b+2c+d)/6
RK4 method
(t
n+1
,f(t
n+1
))
(t
n
,f(t
n
))
Runge-Kutta (RK4) Method
Which method to use?
Higher order methods such as RK4 are generally
more accurate, but require more calculations
per step. The calculation of f(x) uses the most
time.
Euler method is really simple and fast, and for
that reason it has historically been used in
real-time power plant simulation.
It may be worthwhile to investigate the use of
higher order approximations in OPG simulators,
now that computers are faster than before.
MATLAB routines can use Self-adjusting
intervals when solving problems.
FD Approximations - Review
The Taylor Series can be used to derive
many different finite difference
approximations for replacing derivatives
with easier algebraic approximations.

By comparing their truncation errors (the
first discarded term), the relative
accuracy of two different finite
difference approximations can be
evaluated.
ceprofs.tamu.edu/hchen/cven688/chap03a.ppt
FD Approximations -
Review
Stability is important!
Explicit methods are faster per iteration,
but may be unstable.
Implicit methods are more computationally
intense, but can progress with larger
intervals and are always stable.
Stiff problems, having potentially large
changes in f(x) in small intervals (eg.
Reactor kinetics problem in assignment 4)
almost always require implicit methods.
Example Derivation
GOAL: Derive a finite difference
approximation for f(x
n
) based on
x
n
, x
n+1
, x
n+2
, x
n+3
, and determine
the truncation error of that
approximation.
Start with the Taylor series:

) (
!
) (
) ( ) (
1
x
dx
f d
n
x
x f x x f
n
n
n
n
=
A
+ = A +
Note: After expanding using Taylor
Series, all RHS quantities are at x
n

Let x
n+1
= x
n
+ Ax = x
n
+ h, x
n+2
= x
n
+ 2h, etc.
f (x
n+1
) = f (x
n
) +
h
1
1!
f ' (x
n
) +
h
2
2!
f ' ' (x
n
) +
h
3
3!
f ' ' ' (x
n
) +
h
4
4!
f
(4)
(x
n
) +
h
5
5!
f
(5)
(x
n
) + ...
f (x
n+1
) = f (x
n
) + hf ' (x
n
) +
h
2
2
f ' ' (x
n
) +
h
3
6
f ' ' ' (x
n
) +
h
4
24
f
(4)
(x
n
) +
h
5
120
f
(5)
(x
n
) + ... [A]

f (x
n+2
) = f (x
n
) +
2h
( )
1
1!
f ' (x
n
) +
2h
( )
2
2!
f ' ' (x
n
) +
2h
( )
3
3!
f ' ' ' (x
n
) +
2h
( )
4
4!
f
(4)
(x
n
) +
2h
( )
5
5!
f
(5)
(x
n
) + ...
f (x
n+2
) = f (x
n
) + 2hf ' (x
n
) + 2h
2
f ' ' (x
n
) +
4
3
h
3
f ' ' ' (x
n
) +
2
3
h
4
f
(4)
(x
n
) +
4
15
h
5
f
(5)
(x
n
) + ... [B]
f (x
n+3
) = f (x
n
) + 3hf ' (x
n
) +
9
2
h
2
f ' ' (x
n
) +
9
2
h
3
f ' ' ' (x
n
) +
81
24
h
4
f
(4)
(x
n
) +
243
120
h
5
f
(5)
(x
n
) + ... [C]
Next
Try to eliminate the lowest order
derivatives of f(x), keeping the desired
derivative and a minimum number of
higher order derivatives (that make up
the truncation error). In our
example,we want to keep f(x) and
eliminate or reduce f(x), f(x) as best
we can.
Add or subtract multiples of each
equation to achieve this. For our
example, lets try [A]+2[B]-[C], to
eliminate the f(x) term

[A] + 2[B] [C] =
f (x
n+1
) + 2 f (x
n+2
) f (x
n+3
)
= f (x
n
)[1+ 2 1]
+ hf ' (x
n
)[1+ 4 3]
+ h
2
f ' ' (x
n
)[
1
2
+ 4
9
2
]
+ h
3
f ' ' ' (x
n
)[
1
6
+
8
3
9
2
] + ...
f ' (x
n
) =
2 f (x
n
) + f (x
n+1
) + 2 f (x
n+2
) f (x
n+3
)
2h

5
3
h
2
f ' ' ' (x
n
) + ...
Approximation of f
Truncation
error
Proving an approximation
(like Quiz 2 problem)
h
x f h x f h x f
x f
2
) ( 3 ) ( 4 ) 2 (
) ( '
+ + +
~
Write Taylor series for function values NOT at x

f (x+ 2h) = f (x)+ 2hf '(x)+
4h
2
2
f ' '(x)+
8h
3
6
f ' ' '(x)+
16h
4
24
f
(4)
(x)

f (x+ h) = f (x)+ hf '(x)+
h
2
2
f ' '(x)+
h
3
6
f ' ' '(x)+
h
4
24
f
(4)
(x)+...
Substitute the expansions (with
truncation terms included!) back
into the approximation formula:

f (x + 2h)+ 4 f (x + h) 3 f (x)
= f (x)[1+ 4 3]+ hf '(x)[2+ 4]+ h
2
f ' '(x)[4 / 2+ 4 / 2]+ h
3
f ' ' '(x)[8/ 6+ 4 / 6]+...
= 2hf '(x)
2
3
h
3
f ' ' '(x)+...
Rearrange to isolate f(x)

f '(x) =
f (x+ 2h)+ 4 f (x+ h) 3f (x)
2h
+
1
3
h
2
f ' ' '(x)+...
Truncation
error
Other Numerical Analysis Techniques
We have only scratched the surface.
More sophisticated methods exist that
are more suitable when solution domains
have complex or changing geometries.
Finite Element method: first used in
structural analysis. Also used in
aerospace and many other engineering
and scientific applications.
Also Finite Volume method, Spectral
method, Panel method, Boundary element
method, Graduate course.
Suggestions
Expect anything
Follow instructions!
Name your assignment file submission according
to the standard (not just Assignment 4)
Also include your name and student number
INSIDE your submission at least once.
Add comments in MATLAB, otherwise you will
not be able to debug your own code at a later
date (And your peers and evaluators definitely
wont understand what your code does!)

Real-World Problems
Fix it, Live with it, or walk away
If you dont take the time to do it
right the first time, when will you
ever find time to fix it?
If it aint broke, dont fix it!
80/20 rule
Administrative
So remember me?

Administrative
Final Exam: December 12, 12h00
3 hours long
UA1140
Assignment #5 Now due Dec 11
Group projects are coming in
tomorrow night.
Grades will be uploaded to WebCT
when I mark the projects

Step 5: Evaluating the
Solution
Define the Problem
Generate Solutions
Implement Solution
Evaluate Solution
Evaluation
This should be an ongoing process
throughout the life of the project.
Evaluation may be measured against
identified project milestones
Milestone: a significant event
If project objectives are not being
met, this must be communicated to
management in a timely manner.
A checklist may help
Evaluation checklist
Have the assumptions
been challenged?
Does the solution solve
the real problem?
Is the problem
permanently, or
temporarily solved?
Does the solution have
impact?
Have the consequences of
the solution been
examined?
Have both positive and
negative sides of the
solution been argued?
Has the solution
accomplished all it could?
Is the solution
economically efficient and
justifiable?
Does the solution meet
the clients and
customers needs?
Does the solution cause
other problems
(environmental or safety)?
Is the solution logical?
Is the solution
economically,
environmentally, and
politically responsible and
safe?
Ethics
When discussing a conflict related
to ethics, have you ever heard (or
thought): I had not thought of it
in that light?
Many times the ethical aspects of a
situation may not be entirely clear.
Solutions are not always black and
white with regards to ethics, but
are shades of gray.
Ethics Checklist
Is it legal?
Will you be violating either civil or company law?
Is it balanced?
Is it fair to all concerned in the short term as
well as the long term?
Does it promote a win-win relationship?
How will it make you feel about yourself?
Will it make you proud?
Would you feel good if your decisions were
published in the newspaper?
Would you feel good if your family knew about it?
Apply the 5 Ps to the Solution
The Power of Ethical Management
K. Blanchard and N. Pearle (1988)
Related to the three point checklist
provided, the 5 Ps will help you
further analyze the solution.
It is often very instructive to have
a third party either listen to your
explanations or argue your points.
The Five Ps
Purpose
What is the objective you are striving for?
Pride
Can you take pride in the developed solution?
Patience
Have you taken time to think through all
ramifications of the solution?
Persistence
Have you given up too soon on finding a solution
that is fair and balanced to all?
Perspective
Does the solution fit with your ideals and
beliefs?
Example: The Gift
You are responsible for managing
the purchase of dosimetry for the
laboratory you work in.
Each year, the representatives
from the different vendors leave
small tokens of appreciation (pens,
mugs, etc).
This year, one rep. leaves you an
expensive monogrammed briefcase,
which is much out of the ordinary
You are in a position to influence
the purchase this year of a large
quantity of equipment.
Should you:
Keep the case, on the grounds that
your judgment will not be affected in
any way?
Keep the case, since it would only
cause embarrassment all around if it
were returned?
Return the case?
Other?
Applying the 5 Ps
Purpose
Ask yourself what would you do to remain unbiased.
Pride
Would you feel pride in accepting the case or pride in
returning the case?
Patience
Set aside a time to think about whether or not you
should accept the case. Talk it out with someone.
Persistence
Have you pursued all the avenues to resolve either
keeping or returning the case?
Perspective
Even if you feel your judgment will not be affected by
accepting the gift, how will it appear to other
colleagues? Are you setting a good example?
Some Poll Results
US Canada US, by age
Option
Total (%) Total (%) < 26 26 - 50 > 50
Keep the case, judgment not affected 19.7 14.6 27.7 17.9 15.4
Keep the case, avoid embarrassment 3.3 4.9 4.9 2.8 3.1
Return the case 65.8 61.0 56.9 68.1 67.6
Other 9.5 18.3 9.0 9.8 12.1

Adapted from Chem. Eng. Magazine, Sept. 1980, p.132
Almost 28% of people under 26
thought it was OK to keep the case

Safety
One of the most important aspects
of the evaluation process is to
ensure that the proposed solution is
safe to both humans and the
environment.
Can use KT Potential Problem
Analysis or HAZOP (HAZard and
OPerability) Analysis
Fault tree analysis may be useful
Some words about HAZOP
Investigation of deviations from the design
intention for a process by a team of
individuals with expertise in different areas
such as engineering, operations,
maintenance, safety, etc.

Normal Operations
Deviation
1
Potential
Accident *
Deviation
3
Potential
Accident *
Deviation
2
Potential
Accident*
Deviation
4
Potential
Accident*
*If applicable
safeguards fail
Procedure for HAZOP Analysis
(3) Subdivide the
system or activity
and develop
deviations
(2) Define the
problems of
interest for the
analysis
(4) Conduct
HAZOP reviews
(1) Define the
system or activity
(5) Use the results
in decision making
Developing credible deviations:
the guide word approach
Guide Word
No (not)
More (high, long)
Less (low, short)
.
.
Guide Word + System Condition = Deviation
System Condition
Flow
Pressure
Temperature
.
.
Limitations of the
HAZOP Technique
Requires a well-defined system or
activity
Time consuming
Focuses on one-event causes of
deviations
This is all we will say about this technique in this course
Example: Portable Heater
As the health and safety officer
at the nuclear plant you are
working at, you are asked to
obtain a portable kerosene heater
to use in the winter for the
emergency off-site command post.
Being a graduate from the UOIT Problem
Solving course, you know that, prior to
purchasing this heater, you should do a
safety analysis on its use.
First, you ask yourself: Is a kerosene
heater the best choice?
Since the Off-Site command post does
not initially have electrical power
available, this portable and self contained
heat source as a stop-gap measure seems
reasonable. The total number of people
expected in the post are 10.
You decide initially that a potential
problem analysis (PPA) is in order.
Potential
Problem
Consequence Possible Cause Preventative
Action
Contingent
Action
Improper fuel
used in heater
Explosion
Using gasoline
to fill tank
Place warning
sign near heater
Verify Gasoline
before loading
heater
Heater tips over Fire
People around
heater
Place heater in
protected
location
Remove
combustible
materials from
vicinity
Improper
venting
Installed by
qualified
technician
Check vent
prior to lighting Carbon
monoxide
build-up
Asphyxiation
Chimney
plugged
Check chimney
each heating
session
Regular
maintenance on
chimney/flue

You now determine that the consequences (top level events)
and potential problems (basic events) will fit
nicely into a fault tree .
KT PPA
Fault Tree Math
IF you can assign
probabilities of occurrence
(# times/month, for
example) to the basic
events, you can then get
the top level probabilities
(probability of occurrence
per month).
For AND gates
P(A
1
A
2
..A
n
)
= P(A
1
)P(A
2
)..
For OR gates
P(A
1
+A
2
+..A
n
)
= P(A
1
)+P(A
2
)..
Basic Equations
For example(made up numbers)
p(Heater improperly vented)=0.001/month
p(Chimney plugged)=0.2/month
p(Heater tips over)=0.5/month
p(Wrong fuel)=0.05/month

Using Boolean logic, we get:
P(Asphyxiation)=0.201/month
P(Fire)=0.5/month
P(Explosion)=0.05/month
Most Probable
If you want to talk risk
Risk = Probability x Consequence
Let us measure consequence (C) in
terms on number people injured (#
injured/10 total people in post)
C(Asphyxiation)=0.6 (6 people injured)
C(Fire)=0.2 (2 people injured)
C(Explosion)=0.8 (8 people injured)
Risk(Asphyx)=(0.201)*(0.6)=0.12
Risk(Fire)=(0.5)*(0.2)=0.1
Risk(Explosion)=(0.05)*(0.8)=0.04
Putting it all together!
Case Study: Sears Catalog
In 1992, Sears, Roebuck and Co.
announced elimination of their
catalog sales (and closing of over
100 stores in the face of a $830
million deficit).
What lead up to this situation?
History
In 1886, R.W. Sears began selling
watches and jewelry with mailers.
Nine years later, they had
produced a 532 page catalog of
merchandise aimed at Americas
farm families.
The catalog quickly caught on and
became a lifeline for people in
remote areas.
By 1992, there were Fall/Winter,
Spring/Summer and Christmas
Wishbook offerings, along with
many other seasonal catalogs.
The catalog sales, although in
excess of $3.3 billion, was in
serious troubleexperiencing
significant red ink in spite of
impressive sales.
Sears management had failed to
recognize a paradigm shift.
Other marketers were targeting
specific audiences, whereas Sears
continued to produce large and costly
Big Book.
They were stuck in paradigm
paralysis that as long as an item had
the Sears name on it, it would sell.
Who, these days, would buy a
refrigerator or stove through a
catalog??? They were, however, still
in the catalog
Sears did not even have a 1-800
number to call in orders (other
companies had started this years
earlier).
The ripple effect from eliminating
the Big Book was extensive, for
example:
Over 50% of business lost in 2 Sears
plants, resulting in them closing and job
losses over 1000.
Paper industry lost 40,000 tons/year in
business
US Postal Service lost $100 million in
postage and handling per year.
Lets analyze this situation using
our problem solving skills!
First, why was the problem allowed to
get so serious?
Our first guess is that Sears was
stuck in paradigm paralysis
How can we come up with ideas to fix
the problem?
Lets try a Duncker Diagram to try
and clarify the problemwe can also
try a Problem Statement-Restatement
technique
What can we see here?
Some of the specific solutions in the
Duncker Diagram and the Statement-
Restatement table point to:
Improve sales by using more than just
distributing the Big Book
Improving image
Improving customer satisfaction
Lets use these solution guidelines in
a Fishbone diagram to explore
further! Our goal is to increase sales
in the catalog division. Brainstorm!
You can now take each one of the
specific solutions from the Fishbone
diagram, and brainstorm around it a
number of alternatives.
Lets just look at one
Produce smaller specialty catalogs
targeting specific groups.
Brainstorming
Consider specialty groups

Babies/small children
Baby clothes, targeting expectant mothers
Baby shower catalogs
Educational games for pre-school
Specialty baby foods
Handy gadgets for baby care
Elderly
Convenience items for the infirm
Large print books
Group travel/companionship
Teenagers
Team logo products
Audio equipment
High-tech computer games (Feedback, VR)
CDs, DVDs, MP3s
Newlyweds
Honeymoon packages (travel; cruises)
Housing/real estate service
Gift ideas

The brainstorming technique
generated some ideas not previously
brought forth, such as a national
catalog travel agency, that would
target diverse groups such as
newlyweds or the elderly. Also, the
entertainment market may be worth
investigating further.
These areas may be fertile ground
for diversification.
Lets try another brainstorming
technique called random stimulation
to explore more possibilities
Random Stimulation
Choose a random word
>>rand;
>> violin
What does violin bring to mind?
Music -> CDs/MP3s
Instrument -> marching band accessories
Strings -> fishing equipment -> boating
accessories -> nautical items -> nautical
fashions -> other specialty fashion clothes
Bow -> archery -> uncommon sporting good
items
Try another word
>> rand;
>> ghost
What does ghost bring to mind?
Witches -> brooms ->cleaning products,
appliances, gadgets
White -> sheets -> specialty bedding items,
towels, etc
Halloween -> costumes
More entertainment & leisure items were
generated, along with some new items.
Lets summarize in a Fishbone diagram,
concentrating on specialty catalogs.
Each one of these could be targeted catalogs
Each one of these could be targeted catalogs
Decision Analysis
The next step is to determine
which of the identified catalogs
should be printed.
To do this, we would list our
MUSTS and WANTS
MUST show a profit in 18 months
WANT to operate without hiring new
personnel
etc, etc
Decision Analysis
MUSTS Travel Baby Items Etc etc
Turn a profit in 18
months
GO GO NO GO
WANTS Weight Rating Score Rating Score
Use existing
personnel
10 10 100 9 90
Etc 9 8 72 7 63
Etc 8 4 32 2 16
Etc 7 2 14 1 7
218 176
NO GO

Travel catalog wins!
Potential Problem Analysis
Now, we
want to do a
PPA to
identify any
potential
complications
with this
solution.
Sears Catalog Summary
Of course, this analysis gets to be
very large as you explore more
parameters and more options
(i.e., 6 books).
You will notice, however, that we
followed the general heuristic we
developed in this course.
Define
Generate
Decide
Implement
Evaluate
Find out where the problem is
Explore the problem
PS/DS-Duncker diagram
Statement-Restatement
Blockbusting
Random stimulation
Analogy
KT Analysis
Situation
Problem
Decision
Potential Problem
Plan
Carry through
Experiment
Gantt
Deployment
Critical path
Satisfy objectives
Ethical considerations
Safety considerations

Six Simples Rules
Take a proactive approach not only to problem
solving but also to your life.
Have a vision of what you want to accomplish
and take steps that are in the right direction
Dont be afraid to fail. We can learn from our
failures.
Observe good problem solvers. Ask them
questions and brainstorm with them.
Dont dismiss ideas of others immediately; use
them as triggers.
Get into the habit of planning your time and
prioritizing the tasks you must accomplish.

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ENGR 2140

Problem Solving, Modelling

If a fluid is incompressible, such as water near

Substituting [2] and [3] into [1] yields the following:

4. Determine tank bottom pressure:

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