Anda di halaman 1dari 9

National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook

National Interagency Fire Center Predictive Services Issued: June 1, 2012


Next Issue: July 1, 2012

Wildland Fire Outlook June through September 2012


The June through September 2012 significant fire potential outlooks are shown below. The primary factors influencing these outlooks are: El Nio/Southern Oscillation (ENSO): ENSO neutral conditions currently in place are expected to continue into the mid-summer. Drought: Late spring rain across West Texas and eastern New Mexico improved moisture conditions somewhat but the region still suffers extreme drought. Severe to extreme drought worsened across much of the Great Basin and Southwest. Extreme to exceptional drought continued over a large portion of the Southeast but heavy rain from Tropical Storm Beryl significantly moderated those conditions. Moderate drought conditions decreased over the upper Mississippi Valley. Fuel Conditions: Drought continues to dominate the southwestern quarter of the country causing areas of below normal fuel moisture conditions extending from New Mexico west through California and north to southern Oregon, Idaho and Wyoming. Additionally, many of these areas have increased fine fuel loading from lingering dead, standing fuels and below normal snowpack, creating a heavy and continuous fuel bed. In the northwestern quarter of the U.S., mild and moist conditions through the spring have kept fuels somewhat moist in the short term, even though the fine fuel crops are abundant. Some drought persists across the Great Lakes area, leading to drier than normal fuel conditions. This area receives good late spring precipitation and as green up occurs, expect fuel moistures to increase. The southeastern U.S. will continue to see periodic precipitation events and Tropical Storm Beryl provided a great deal of precipitation to the driest areas, increasing fuel moistures and reducing fire concerns.

Note: Significant fire potential is defined as the likelihood that a wildland fire event will require mobilization of additional resources from outside the area in which the fire situation originates.

Past Weather and Drought


A series of broad troughs and closed lows traversed the western U.S. during May but mostly brought windy and dry conditions to much of the intermountain West. Meanwhile, despite a few periods of record temperatures, parts of the southern and northern Plains, the upper Midwest, and the East coast received some beneficial rains. Temperatures were generally above normal for most of the nation, especially the central Plains and the Ohio Valley, where temperatures were six to eight degrees above normal for the month. Across the Northwest and Northern Rockies, temperatures dipped to two to four degrees below normal. Precipitation was as much as 200 to 300 percent of normal over much of the Southeast coast from northern Florida to North Carolina, where Tropical Storm Beryl brought heavy rain over a three day period at the end of the month. Elsewhere, west Texas and southern New Mexico received over 150 percent of normal rain, as did the upper Midwest and parts of the northern Plains and the Northwest. Most of the Southwest, the central and southern Plains, and the Mississippi Valley were well below normal. Drought continued to plague much of the southwestern and southeastern sections of the U.S. Severe to exceptional drought stretched from central Texas to California and north into the Great Basin. Severe to exceptional drought conditions also persisted in the southeast across Florida, southeastern Alabama, Geogia and South Carolina, although rains from Tropical Storm Beryl will mitigate conditions in the short term. Moderate drought conditions continued across parts of the upper Midwest.
Departure from Normal Temperature (top) and Percent of Normal Precipitation (bottom) (from High Plains Regional Climate Center) U.S. Drought Monitor (top) and Drought Outlook (bottom) (from National Drought Mitigation Center and the Climate Prediction Center)

Weather and Climate Outlooks


Global patterns point toward a neutral ENSO condition over the equatorial Pacific. Some warming of the ocean surface in favored regions is suggestive of developing El Nio conditions by mid to late summer. Current climate projections by the Climate Prediction Center weigh heavily on neutral conditions entering the summer months. This would indicate above normal temperatures for June across most of the Southwest, the Great Basin, central and southern Rockies, the central Plains, and the coastal States from Texas to New Jersey. Below normal temperatures are expected along the West coast from central California to northwest Alaska. Precipitation projections for June indicate a high likelihood of below median precipitation for the Northwest and the northern Great Basin. For July through September, temperature projections indicate above normal temperatures are expected across most of the southern two-thirds of the country. Precipitation projections lean to a higher probability of below median in the Northwest and northern Rockies.
Top row: One-month (June) outlook for temperature (left) and precipitation (right). Bottom row: Three month (July-September) outlook for temperatures (left) and precipitation (right). (from Climate Prediction Center/NOAA)

Jun 2012

Jul - Sep 2012

Area Discussions
Alaska: Significant fire potential in June is expected to be normal statewide. The late fire season is less certain due to the variability of forecasts for ENSO. High pressure is forecast to build over Alaska for the first week of the month, bringing a warming and drying trend, typical for this time of year. June is generally Alaskas most active month for fire as temperatures peak, precipitation is minimal, and both lightning and human outdoor activity reach their maximum. There is no reason to expect this year to be any different. ENSO is currently in a neutral state. If it remains neutral, activity will taper off with increasing rains by the end of July and into August. If El Nio becomes dominant, it is likely that end of season rainfall will be delayed and the fire season could be very active through August. Southwest: Above normal significant fire potential is expected across western New Mexico and much of the southeastern portion of Arizona with the remainder of the Area remaining normal in June. Overall, expect gradually warmer conditions, especially east of the divide, with semi-frequent windy periods focused west of the divide. Moisture will likely be limited over the next several weeks and should be focused primarily across the eastern portion of the region. From around mid-June onward, there will be an increasing likelihood of moisture moving westward towards the divide region and moving northward from Mexico which will eventually lead to lighting caused ignitions primarily across far western New Mexico and the eastern portion of Arizona. Expect an on time or possibly early start of the monsoon, with likely average to above average precipitation focused across western New Mexico and eastern Arizona. This should begin sometime around late June into early July. Above normal significant fire potential is expected through about mid-July across western New Mexico and much of the southeastern portion of Arizona. The remainder of the Area will see normal significant fire potential from July through September. After mid-July, the entire Area will move to normal significant fire potential. The beginning of the monsoon will begin to alleviate aforementioned areas of above normal potential during the first half of July. Thereafter, there is considerable uncertainty in regards to both the focus and likelihood of precipitation as well as the overall summer forecast mainly revolving around the state of ENSO. If ENSO conditions remain neutral, it would likely point toward hotter temperatures across the eastern part of the Area with more moisture across the southeastern parts. More normal temperatures and much drier conditions would exist across the northwestern portion during this timeframe. A quicker, definitive transition toward an El Nio episode would mean cooler and wetter conditions across the northwestern part of the Area as well as across the far east with more normal temperatures and drier than normal precipitation across much of the southeastern part of the region. Northern Rockies: Expect normal significant fire potential to persist through June. Even with an unusually warm and dry spring for the majority of the Area, especially east of the Divide, many concerns were erased by wetting rains and heavy mountain snow on Memorial Day weekend. No unusual warmth is forecast for the first half of June. Periodic wetting storms for the Area are also forecast for this period. Green up is also occurring across much of the Area, further reducing significant fire potential. June is typically one of the wettest months for the Area. Relative humidity should also increase for eastern Montana and North Dakota as low level moisture moves up the Front Range of the Rockies. Normal significant fire potential will continue for the July through August period, however this will likely trend toward the upper limits of normal. Great uncertainty continues to exist about the ENSO state. Unless El Nio surfaces in the next month, the Area will be under the influence of ENSO neutral conditions through July, August and likely September. Heavy fine carryover fuel load will be available to burn by the end of June, especially east of the Divide. A normal start to fire season is expected in early July. ENSO neutral conditions are generally warm and dry for the Area. It is anticipated that all categories of fuels will cure and potentially reach critical levels by early August. The real uncertainty will be the amount of lightning and the moisture associated with of the storms. A large ridge anchored off the west coast will bring a northwest flow to most of the Area. This pattern typically is not as likely

to influence significant fires for the Area. The Area is not under severe drought stress and soil moistures are relatively high. Western Great Basin: Above normal significant fire potential is expected for western and northern Nevada, especially from mid to late June. Fire season typically starts in June with a few significant fires over western and northern Nevada and one or two fires over southern Nevada. Medium range models indicate the first half of June could be wetter and cooler for the northern half of Nevada. This will limit fire potential the first half of June, but fuels should dry out later in the month, returning to above normal significant fire potential over northern Nevada. Temperatures over the last 30 days have been above normal across western, central and southern Nevada, with the warmest conditions in the far south. Temperatures over northeast Nevada were near to slightly above normal. Very dry conditions also occurred through most of May. Energy release components (ERC) were above normal in all areas of Nevada with some ERCs at record highs for May. ERCs did drop significantly after the late May rain and snow event, but still remained above normal in almost all areas of Nevada and increased the last week in May due to a return to warm and dry weather. Snowpack has almost disappeared in most areas of Nevada, but remains on the higher peaks, and is less than 5 percent of normal for this time of year. Expect above normal temperatures across the state through June, especially over southern and eastern Nevada, with below normal precipitation over northern Nevada. However, precipitation may end up being above normal with near to below normal temperatures over the northern half of Nevada during the first half of June as troughs move across the area. Mostly severe drought conditions are present across much of Nevada, with pockets of moderate drought over central and eastern Nevada. Western Great Basin fire season is typically in full swing in July and August. Due to the abundance and dryness of the carryover fuels over western, northern and central Nevada, above normal significant fire potential conditions are expected to continue through the summer. Wetting rains at the end of May into early June may be enough to produce a second green up across parts of northern Nevada. This additional fuel growth will increase the significant fire potential even further once they cure into July and August. Fire season typically slows in September, but if warm and dry conditions linger, fire season may persist. Drought is likely to persist or worsen across Nevada. Above normal temperatures are expected for Nevada. The only caveat appears to be the transition to ENSO neutral or El Nio. El Nio conditions may bring more precipitation to parts of southern and eastern Nevada, which would decrease the chances of seeing an above normal season. However, this region is not the primary concern for above normal significant fire potential. A transition to El Nio may not be enough to increase precipitation over parts of western and northwest Nevada, with above normal significant fire potential most likely in these areas. Timing of the transition to El Nio will strongly influence when the wetter period emerges. Eastern Great Basin: Above normal significant fire potential is forecast across southwestern Idaho and much of southern and eastern Utah. Near-record to record ERC values across Utah in May reflect extremely warm and dry spring conditions. Live fuel moistures peaked early in May and did not reach normal high values before dropping off rapidly. New grass growth has been stunted across the Area due to lack of spring precipitation. Rapid snowmelt at high elevations has left heavier fuels exposed to the warm dry spring, increasing fire potential earlier than normal. June is expected to be warm and dry across the region, especially Utah with occasional wind events and periods of cooler weather, especially early in the month. Southwest Idaho has experienced similar conditions with a warm dry spring and abundant carryover grasses from last year. All of southern Idaho is expected to have some activity during June, which is normal, but activity should be greater than the last few years where June was relatively quiet. With the expected early start to the fire season in June the rest of the season should be fairly active as well, especially across the higher elevations of Utah. Expect above normal significant fire potential to continue across southwestern Idaho and the central Utah mountains. Drought conditions have taken hold across the state of Utah and likely wont be alleviated through the summer, especially at

the higher elevations. Any increase in relative humidity associated with the monsoon will likely bring fire potential down to near normal across the lower elevations of Utah during the latter half of July and August. The high elevations of Idaho and western Wyoming may see increased fire potential as the summer progresses if hot, dry conditions settle into the area for an extended period. New grass growth has been stunted region wide due to lack of spring precipitation. As with the July period, southern Idaho is expected to be more active through the season than has been observed in recent seasons. Northwest: May began unusually cool and wet across the Northwest Geographic Area as several wet and windy Pacific cold fronts moved across the Area. However, the middle of May became warmer and drier, particularly over Oregon, as a ridge of high pressure set up over the western states. A cooling trend with wetter weather returned during the last week of the month. Temperatures were cooler than average in May across the majority of the region except for sections of southwest and south central Oregon. Precipitation for May was below average for much of the Area except for western Washington and northwest Oregon. The region east of the Cascades remained unusually dry in May. Fire danger indices rose to above normal in many spots east of the Cascades in Oregon as a result. Snowpack remained generally well above average in Washington for May, while western Oregon basins reported near normal amounts of snow as of late May. Central and eastern Oregon snow reporting basins continued to fall well below average during May. June is expected to have normal significant fire potential except for southeastern and south central Oregon where fire danger indices and satellite imagery indicate ongoing dryness and warmth have increased potential. While summer is not expected to be particularly hot over the Northwest, drying of fuels is expected to continue through the summer at a normal or above normal rate. Areas most at risk for above normal significant fire potential appear to be sections of south central and southeastern Oregon where satellite imagery indicates dryness has persisted through much of the winter and spring. Due to the ongoing dryness, fire danger indices there are expected to rise in June faster than is typical and possibly reach greater than normal values in July and August. Northern California and Hawaii: Normal significant fire potential is forecast for most of Northern California, except the far eastern portions of the Area. Generally near normal precipitation is expected in the north half of Area, but most of the southern portion should see below normal precipitation for the first half of June. For all areas the second half of the month is expected to have drier conditions. Expect at or slightly below average temperatures in the first half of the month, then trending warmer. The troughs expected during the first half of June will produce greater southwest wind speeds and durations than average. This wind will affect the part of the Area having the most significant drought impacts. This region also has the most significant standing carryover dead grass from last season. Expect some potential for expansion of above normal significant fire potential into the southwestern portions of the Area by late July or August. Widespread lightning or dry lighting events would increase the potential for ignitions and thus increase the likelihood of above normal significant fires across the Area. A dry as well as heavy and continuous fuel condition will continue to be the key to above normal significant fire potential in the east and south portions of the Area especially. Most of the Hawaiian Island areas have had below average precipitation in May. The state has moved into its normal dry season more quickly than usual, and there is no significant relief expected in June. Trade inversions have been locally lower than normal, keeping some mountain areas above 5000 feet drier than average. There was some precipitation relief in May along the southwestern coast of the island of Hawaii, but overall moderate to severe drought persists, especially on the leeward portions of each island. Expect normal to above normal significant fire potential across the state, with the above normal concentrated on the western portion of the island of Hawaii. Small pockets on the lee sides of the other islands may also be above normal.

Southern California: Normal significant fire potential is forecast for Southern California through June. Expect slightly below normal temperatures at the beginning of the month, possibly increasing to above normal toward the end of June. Near normal precipitation is likely as well, however, normal precipitation for June is minimal. The end of June will likely see an increase in significant fire potential, however potential is not expected to increase to above normal until July across the Southern California mountains. During the July through September period above normal significant fire potential will develop over the mountains and foothills of southern and central California as well as the inland valleys. Compared to recent seasons expect more high elevation fires above 8000 feet. Above normal temperatures are expected throughout this period. Fuels are not expected to recover any moisture during this period, except for short term fine fuel recoveries associated with any thunderstorm related showers. The expansion of the current drought condition is possible if no significant monsoonal activity occurs over Southern California. Rocky Mountain: Significant fire potential is predicted to be near normal for much of the Rocky Mountain Area for June, however, above average significant fire potential is anticipated for western Colorado into south central and southwest Wyoming. Long term drought exists in the above normal significant fire potential areas, especially west of the continental divide in Colorado. Predictions for the Area include near to above average temperatures, especially across southern and western Colorado. Additionally, precipitation east of the divide is predicted to be near average for the period, with a drier regime continuing west of the divide. East of the divide, with the combination of green up of fine fuels and occasional precipitation opportunities, significant fire potential is expected to be normal during the month of June. Average fire activity for June implies some mainly short duration large fire activity can be expected, with a greater chance of multiple long duration fires in the above normal significant fire potential areas. For the July through September period above normal significant fire potential is expected to persist across western Colorado into south central and southwest Wyoming, however, subtropical moisture is anticipated to moderate fire potential in the southwest corner of Colorado by mid-July. Indicators point towards a continued warming trend in the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures over the next few months, with neutral to weak El-Nio temperature anomalies predicted during the summer period. The resultant weather pattern for the Area includes near to above average temperatures across the Area during the July through September period, while precipitation profiles east of the divide are predicted to be near average for the period. A drier regime is more likely west of the divide, mainly from west central Colorado into south central and southwest Wyoming. Eastern Area: Much of the Eastern Area will see normal significant fire potential for June. However, moderate drought and low soil moisture anomalies were still present across northwestern Minnesota, the eastern Upper Peninsula of Michigan, and the northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan at the end of May. In addition, ERCs, Canadian build-up indices, and 1000 hour fuel moistures were still at critical levels across these areas. Rainfall over the Memorial Day weekend diminished fire potential across much of the Great Lakes. However, the heaviest rainfall occurred across northeastern, central and southern Minnesota into northwestern Wisconsin. A drier and warmer pattern is forecast to set up across the central U.S. into mid-June. This may lead to periods of above normal significant fire potential across the drier portions of the northern Great Lakes into June. The southern portions of Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana were drier and warmer than normal through much of May. These areas were expected to receive precipitation through late May into early June. However, with a warmer and drier pattern setting up across the central U.S. into mid-June, any warm and windy periods may lead to elevated significant fire potential across these areas. Near normal significant fire potential is expected across the Eastern Area for July through September. However, any short to medium term warm and windy periods will produce elevated fire potential as finer fuels dry out.

Southern Area: Expect significant fire potential across the Southern Area to continue to moderate and become below normal across portions of the southern Atlantic coast from Florida through North Carolina. Recent moderate precipitation plus rainfall from Tropical Storm Beryl across southeastern Georgia and northeastern Florida has helped reduce significant fire potential for what has been a very dry spring. With this rain and the prospects for a continuing building of the seasonal summertime rain and tropical disturbance threat, significant fire potential will continue to decrease. The western Mississippi River Valley, including Arkansas and Louisiana, have had moderate precipitation deficits for April and May which have produced lower fuel moistures and a higher fine fuel ignition possibility. However, without significant weather triggers, fire activity is expected to remain minimal from spring green up. For June, increasing humidity and increasing precipitation activity will keep this area in normal significant fire potential despite the shorter term precipitation deficit. Elsewhere, expect normal significant fire potential with the exception of the eastern Atlantic states as tropical activity and the ongoing potential of near U.S. coast tropical development minimizes widespread and large, multiple fire conditions. Expect a large area of the Atlantic states to experience below normal significant fire potential due to the continued heavier precipitation activity and the continued tropical development and rain impacts from greater tropical wave activity. Elsewhere, anticipate an overall normal significant fire potential. For questions about this outlook please contact the National Interagency Fire Center at (208) 387-5050.

Historic and Predicted Wildland Fires and Acres Burned Data


Based on data reported year-to-date in 2012, nationally there were 72 percent of the average numbers of fires burning approximately 54 percent of the average acres. Nationally, as of May 31, the 10 year average number of fires is 30,987 and the 10 year average acres burned is 1,284,624. The following table displays 10 year historical, current and predicted information pertaining to fire statistics.
May Reported Year-To-Date AVG reported for Jun 142 341,526 357 8,909 735 31,352 879 28,622 235 4,761 279 50,610 83 96,713 767 274,270 411 51,289 699 2,463 4,086 146,919 8,708 1,039,192 Projection for Jun YTD+Forecast 190 170,962 Average Reported YTD Jun 10 Yr Low YTD Jun 197 6,896 208 926 59 2,533 1,089 7,598 195 631 206 1,114 0 0 1,320 3,010 582 6,010 3,580 41,857 10,757 185,030 26,880 728,615 Year of Low 10 Yr High YTD Jun 477 963,685 926 32,539 2,294 269,091 3,155 84,402 1,359 50,069 617 138,227 294 731,377 2,006 1,717,158 1,485 365,333 11,919 172,246 37,090 2,436,804 57,248 4,741,401 Year of High

Fires Acres Fires Acres Fires Acres Fires Acres Fires Acres Fires Acres Fires Acres Fires Acres Fires Acres Fires Acres Fires Acres Fires Acres

109 199 206 12,187 735 1,122 1,159 2,407 652 30,861 299 17,282 160 43,637 826 235,855 1,066 85,958 6,664 55,572 10,310 213,306 22,186 698,386

ALASKA 326 429,682 NORTHWEST 593 552 30,004 9,805 NORTH OPS 1,999 1,084 26,906 34,345 SOUTH OPS 2,395 1,745 16,718 39,052 NORTHERN ROCKIES 1,108 745 36,434 18,464 EAST BASIN 857 390 118,502 52,816 WEST BASIN 325 172 237,062 100,067 SOUTHWEST 1,349 1,911 591,351 477,483 ROCKY MOUNTAIN 1,888 815 186,083 108,005 EASTERN AREA 7,198 8,238 57,030 92,885 SOUTHERN AREA 12,310 23,719 238,498 968,131 NATIONALLY 28,864 39,695 1,118,200 2,323,816

2006 2008 2010 2010 2011 2005 2003 2003 2011 2010 2011 2009 2010 2010 2010 2001 2001 2003 2011 2011 2005 2009 2011 2003

2010 2004 2004 2005 2008 2010 2002 2008 2011 2008 2006 2002 2004 2005 2006 2011 2006 2002 2009 2008 2006 2011 2006 2011

Prepared June 1, 2012 by the National Interagency Coordination Center Predictive Services Staff. The information above was obtained primarily from Incident Management Situation Reports from 2002-2012, however some inaccuracies and inconsistencies have been corrected. Therefore, the data may not reflect other historic records and should not be considered for official statistical purposes. Note: This national outlook and some geographic area assessments are currently available at the NICC and GACC websites. The GACC websites can also be accessed through the NICC webpage at: http://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/outlooks.htm

Anda mungkin juga menyukai