2007-FreemanSystem Planning and Reliability - 3-07 (Read-Only)

Distribution System Planning and Reliability October 2007 Lavelle Freeman
Energy Consulting General Electric Company One River Road, Building 2, Room 620 Schenectady, NY 12345 518 385-3335; Fax 518 385-9529 lavelle.freeman@ge.com http://www.gepower.com/energyconsulting
Copyright 2007 General Electric Company
Distribution Course is presented in two parts
Equipment Application (2 four hour sessions)
Fundamentals of distribution equipment application and system design March 12 - 13
System Planning and Reliability (2 four hour sessions)
Distribution system reliability and system planning March 14 - 15
Some overlap between courses
GE Energy 2007
Course Outline (Day 1)
GE Energy 2007
Distribution System Planning Tab 1 T&D mission and goals 2 Basic design and operation 3 Integrated T&D planning 4 T&D costs 5 Performance metrics 6 The T&D Planning Process 7 Short range planning 8 Long range planning 9 Load Forecasting
Course Outline (Day 2)
Distribution Reliability
Reliability concepts Distribution reliability Reliability indices Reliability targets Cost of poor reliability Causes of interruptions Assessing reliability Improving reliability
4
Tab 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
GE Energy 2007
Distribution System Planning and Reliability
Missions and goals
GE Energy 2007
Primary Objectives
T&D mission and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
Distributions systems exist to deliver power to customers at their locations with adequate
Capacity Frequency Voltage Reliability
GE Energy 2007
Loads are typically distributed over a wide area
Capacity Requirements
Must supply enough power to meet instantaneous demand
Utilities are experts at designing for capacity
Sizing transformers, conductors, equipment for peak load Load flow tools typically used to design for capacity
50% of a utilitys capital is for capacity design
A system designed only for capacity would have no protective or sectionalizing devices
Capacity requirements dictate equipment size (rating)

7
GE Energy 2007
Frequency Requirements
Dominant frequency in North America is 60 Hz
Small amount of 25 Hz, 400 Hz and other special frequencies in use Some DC (0 Hz) still used (trains, elevators)
In many other countries 50 Hz is widely used Frequency planning is not typically a distribution issue
A generation and bulk power issue Sometimes considered in underfrequency load-shedding schemes
8
GE Energy 2007
Voltage Requirements
Must maintain the voltage at the customer location within permissible limits ANSI C84.1
Voltage Range (volts) 114 - 126 110 - 127 Application Note
Service Voltage Ranges from ANSI Standard C84
Range A
Range B
System will be designed and operated so that most of the service voltage is within this limit. Service voltage in this range are allowed provided that they are infrequent and of limited duration
Overvoltages or undervoltages may lead to damaged equipment, misoperations, loss-of-life
Transient voltage deviations are unacceptable
Harmonic distortion, sags, swells, surges Power quality issues

9
GE Energy 2007
Worldwide Voltage and Frequency Use
220-240 volts - 175 countries 100-127 volts - 39 countries.
50 Hz - more efficient for generation and transmission 240 volts - lower losses, better regulation for service
http://www.guide360.com/destinations/Electrical_systems
GE Energy 2007
10
Reliability Requirements
Distribution reliability is regulated by authorities (PUC, PSC, municipal board, etc.) or others
Frequency of outages Duration of outages Typical Availability is 99.98% 2 hours downtime Reliability needs vary with customer and time of use
Utilities need to plan for reliability like capacity
Approx 50% of capital spending is for reliability Most outages (80-95% for some utilities) occur on the distribution system
11
GE Energy 2007
Most Interruptions Occur on the Distribution System
Ten-Year Service Interruption Statistics by Level of Cause
15
10
Customer-hours out of service (millions)
0 Generation Trans Substation Feeders Service T&D System Level
But rigorous approaches still not widely used for reliability analysis
12
GE Energy 2007
Mission of a Typical U.S. T&D System
Deliver power with required frequency (60Hz) Satisfy voltage requirements within 5% Deliver at least 99.98% availability (<2 hr out/yr) Have capacity to meet instantaneous demand Reach all customers wherever they exist
And do it all for the lowest possible cost
GE Energy 2007
13
Challenges to the U.S. T&D Mission
Increasing performance pressures
Customer service, reliability, power quality, response to major events
Cost escalation and regulatory uncertainty
Cost recovery, rate freeze, risk of bypass, stranded assets, market fluctuations, mergers & acquisitions
Aging infrastructure
Majority of T&D assets approaching end of useful life
Aging workforce and shrinking talent pool
50% of engineers eligible for retirement in 5 years 99% drop in power engineer graduation rate per state over the last 20 years
14
GE Energy 2007
Goal for Survival
Maintain/improve customer satisfaction Manage capital and O&M expenditures and drive out inefficiency Mitigate business risks and enable business growth Position company to take advantage of new technology
GE Energy 2007
15
Basic Design and Operation Principles
GE Energy 2007
16
Six Key Factors that Influence T&D Design 1. It is more economical to move power at high voltage 2. High voltage equipment has greater cost but much greater capacity 3. Utilization voltage is useless for moving power 4. It is costly to change voltage level 5. Power is generally more economically produced in large amounts 6. Power must be delivered in small quantities
H. L. Willis, Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, 1997 Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York, NY
Missions and goals Basic design and operation Integrated T&D planning T&D costs
GE Energy 2007
17
From Generation to Customer
Distribution feeders 4 34 kV Sub-transmission 69 kV, 138 kV Transmission 138 kV, 345 kV
Customer Service drop 120/240 V Substation Switching station Large industrial facility with own substation Generating plant
Facility with own distribution system
Every time the path is split, voltage is reduced

18
GE Energy 2007
The Basic T&D Levels
Hi-voltage grid (transmission) Switching (transmission) stations Subtransmission Distribution substations Primary feeder Service transformers Secondary circuits
Utility responsibility ends at the meter

19
GE Energy 2007
Hierarchical Voltage Levels
Each covers the entire system Each is essential for providing service Each succeeding level (moving down) has
More units that the previous level Lower average capacity per unit Greater total capacity than the previous level Generally lower reliability than the level above More service areas
GE Energy 2007
20
Sample Statistics for a Typical US Utility

Number of Units 12 25 45 227 60,000 250,000 250,000 44 11 0.05 0.014 0.005 Avg. Cap. Total Cap MVA MVA 150 1,400 65 1,525 1,980 2,497 3,000 3,500 1,250 Voltage kV 345, 138 138, 69 138/23.9, 69/13.8 23.9, 13.8 0.12, 0.24 0.12, 0.24 0.12
Level of System
Transmission Subtransmission Substations
Feeders Service Trans Secondaries and Services Customer
Total capacity increases toward customer, average capacity/utilization decreases

21
GE Energy 2007
Transmission versus Distribution
By voltage level transmission is above 34 kV; distribution is 34 kV and below By service point distribution feeds service transformers; transmission feeds substations By topology transmission is networked or looped; distribution is typically radial By purpose transmission is built partly for stability and operation; distribution is built to distribute power to customers
GE Energy 2007
22
Distribution System Components
Distribution substations Primary feeders Laterals and branches Service transformers Secondary circuits Service drops
GE Energy 2007
23
Distribution Substation
Where transmission and distribution meet Steps down voltage and splits power path Typically large footprint (acre or more) Components include
GE Energy 2007
High and medium voltage racks and buses High and medium breakers and switches Power transformers (10 MVA 150 MVA) Monitoring and metering equipment Protection, control and regulation equipment
24
Primary Feeders and Laterals
Route power from substation through service area to service transformers 3-ph backbone & 1-ph laterals OH wires and UG direct-buried or ducted cable Operated radial; may be loop designed Components include
Line/cable sections, poles, conduits manholes Protection and sectionalizing equipment Monitoring, metering, control and regulation devices
GE Energy 2007
25
Service Transformers
Step down voltage to utilization level
typically 120 or 120/208 volts in the US, 240/416 volts in Europe
Pole-mounted for overhead service; padmounted or vault-type for underground Located reasonably close to customer
Serves 2 12 customers depending on size Capacity varies,5 kVA to 166 kVA
For large customers 2 or 3 may be connected for multi-phase service

GE Energy 2007
26
Secondaries and Services
Route power at service voltage to endcustomers Termination point is meter at customer location Typically radial design and Missions and goals operation for OH; can be looped Basic design and operation (URD) or networked (grid) for UG Integrated T&D planning Generally single phase in US T&D costs
may be 3-phase for secondary networks
Mostly 3-phase In European systems

GE Energy 2007
27
Distinguishing Characteristics of T&D Levels
Transmission Grid: relatively small number of circuits, complex electrical behavior, failures do not necessarily cause interruptions, repairs lengthy and costly
Distribution: larger number of circuits, typically radial, relatively simple electrical behavior, failures often cause interruptions, restoration usually by switching Service: very high number of circuits, radial, simple electrical behavior, failures always cause interruptions, restoration requires repair, repairs generally quick and less costly
GE Energy 2007
28
Distribution Operation
System is continuously monitored, adjusted, expanded, maintained and repaired
Real-time monitoring and control by operators in dispatch centers
DMS, SCADA, OMS
Crews respond to faults, perform switching and repairs, routine maintenance and construction
WMS, MMS, AM/FM GIS
Vegetation management (tree-trimming)
Contractors or internal tree-crews
Maintenance, replace/repair strategies

29
Run-to-failure, periodic, condition-based, RCM
GE Energy 2007
Integrated T&D Planning
GE Energy 2007
30
Integrated T&D Planning
T&D systems are sometimes designed and operated as three distinct systems
transmission, substation, distribution
The design of one affects the economic and electrical performance of the others Optimizing the design of one level can significantly increase the cost of other levels System planners should look at the system as a whole and make globally optimal decisions,
31
GE Energy 2007
where possible
Integrated T&D Planning Example
Four common questions in T&D system planning
1. 2. 3. 4.
How far apart should substations be? What should be the transmission voltage? How large should the substations be (MVA)? What should be the distribution voltage?
Answer to any one question implies the others!

32
H. L. Willis and G. B. Rackliffe, Introduction to Integrated Resource T&D Planning
GE Energy 2007
How far apart should substations be? The father substations are apart, the larger the individual service areas, and vice-versa
Avg. 5 mi apart
Avg. 3 mi apart
GE Energy 2007
33
Larger station service area implies larger load to serve

5 subs, average 7 miles apart, average 60 MVA per sub
12 subs, average 4 miles apart, average 25 MVA per sub
Total Area Load = 300 MVA
Need larger more expensive substations, but fewer are needed

34
GE Energy 2007
Cost Implication of Large Stations
Is it better to have fewer larger and more costly stations or less smaller and cheaper ones? Answer partially depends on the cost of substations and how it varies with size In general the answer is yes
Five 60-MVA stations cost less that twelve 25-MVA
However, substation cost is not the only issue!

35
GE Energy 2007
Substation size influences transmission design Larger stations need more power delivered Transmission system must be robust enough to deliver large amounts of power But fewer lines will be needed because there are fewer stations Are fewer, but larger transmission lines less expensive than more, but smaller ones?
However, this is still not the whole story!

36
GE Energy 2007
Impact on Distribution Design
Fewer, larger stations means that feeders must move power farther to customer location Longer delivery distance means higher voltage May require more feeders to cover the larger service area May require larger conductor to move more power and reduce technical losses
This is often a major expense

37
GE Energy 2007
Integrated T&D planning
Larger, fewer, father apart substations will require a stronger distribution system that can move power father This means a more expensive feeder system but the additional expense may be justified by the savings in substation and transmission system costs due to greater economy of scale
GE Energy 2007
Economics and electrical behavior of all three levels determine overall cost & performance
38
System Cost and Performance
The system cost is determined by the capital cost for design, engineering and construction and the continuing costs for operation and maintenance of the system The system performance is determined by the capacity to supply the load demand with the required reliability and power quality
There is a natural trade-off between cost and performance in the design of T&D systems
39
GE Energy 2007
T&D System Costs
GE Energy 2007
40
T&D Costs
T&D systems are expensive to design, build and operate Cost Element Value
Equipment, Fixtures, etc. Real Estate and easements Books, Maps and Manuals Going Concern Value TOTAL $9,000,000 $10,000,000 $350,000 $12,000,000 $31,350,000
Evaluation of a Municipal Distribution System in the Southeastern US serving only 12,000 customers
Capital costs (one time costs) include
Equipment, land, labor for preparation, construction, assembly, installation, other commissioning costs
Operating costs (on-going periodic cost) include
Labor and equipment for operation, maintenance and service, taxes and fees, electrical losses
41
GE Energy 2007
Transmission Costs
Usually based on a cost per-unit length for conductor, fixtures and support structures. Termination cost is associated with substation
Size of Power Line Normal Rating MW Cost per per Mile* 32 $161,000 56 $168,000 79 $175,000 108 $181,000 151 $188,000 151 $336,000 151 $205,000 398 $484,000 398 $309,000 1,060 $1,130,000
Some Typical Costs and Capacity of New Transmission Lines**
Voltage
Type of Supporting Tower and Number of Circuits
60 kV 60 kV 60 kV 115 kV 115 kV 115 kV 115 kV 230 kV 230 kV 230 kV
wood pole, single wood pole, single wood pole, single wood pole, single wood pole, single steel pole, single steel pole, double steel pole, single steel pole, double steel pole, single
Typical OH cost for capacity $100/kW ($.5 - $5/kW-mile) Typical UG cost for capacity $1000/kW ($3 - $25/kW-mi)
115 kV underground cable 180 $4,400,000 230 kV underground cable 360 $5,000,000 * Right-of-way cost not included ** From The Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy
Above Ground 4/0 AWG 397.5 kcmil 715.5 kcmil 397.5 kcmil 715.5 kcmil 715.5 kcmil 715.5 kcmil 1,113 kcmil 1,113 kcmil 2,300 kcmil, bundled Underground 200 MVA 400 MVA
GE Energy 2007
42
Substation Costs
Includes cost of all equipment and labor required to build a substation, including land and easement (ROW)
Site: cost of buying land, preparing it for substation Transmission: cost of terminating incoming lines at the site Transformer: cost for power transformer, cooling, buswork, safety measures, metering and control Feeder getaway: cost of getting feeders out of S/S
Nominal Voltage (kV) 115 - 13.2 35 - 12.5 115 - 35 230 - 13.2 230 - 34.5 Rated Capacity (MVA) 20 / 37.3 12 / 16 / 20 60 / 112 27 / 45 60 / 112 Number of Feeders 4 2 5 5 5 Capital Cost $3,348,000 $1,026,000 $4,050,000 $3,960,000 $5,040,000
Some Typical Substation Costs (land, labor, material)
GE Energy 2007
Unit cost can range from $25/kW to $75/kW
43
Feeder Costs
Typical cost of 3-phase, OH, wood pole, medium voltage (12.47 kV) feeder with large conductor (600 MCM) is $150,000/mile Cost can vary widely depending on labor, land cost, geography, load density, design standards
$50,000 - $500,000 per mile
Typical costs per kW-mile for 15MVA feeder are
OH 3-phase: $10 - $15; OH Laterals: $5 - $15 UG Ducted: $30 - $100; UG Direct Buried: $5 - $15
GE Energy 2007
44
Service Costs
Costs estimates typically developed on a per customer basis
Typical US Service Configuration
1-ph lateral secondary
service drops
Service Component Pole and Hardware 50 KVA transformer (installed) 500-ft secondary, 1-ph 10 serice drops TOTAL
Cost $250.00 $2,000.00 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 $4,250.00
service transformer
Cost per customer = $425 ($85/kW)
Average cost for distribution capacity (including feeders and service): $660/kW
45
GE Energy 2007
Operating and Maintenance Costs Continuing annual expense that may include
Periodic inspection, service, repair, taxes and fees
Vary greatly from utility to utility and often accounted for and reported differently General rule of thumb is O&M costs are 1/8 to 1/30 of T&D capital cost Most often used figure is 10%, to be conservative
46
GE Energy 2007
Overbuild versus Upgrade
Cost to upgrade exceeds cost to build

Build: Overhead, 3phase, 12.47 kV, 600 MCM, 15 MVA Feeder Upgrade: 336 MCM 9 MVA to 600 MCM, 15 MVA Feeder $33.33 per kW/mile for additional 6 MVA $150,000/mile $10 per KW-mile $200,000/mile $21.33 per KW-mile
Build: Overhead, 3phase, 12.47 kV, 336 MCM, 9 MVA Feeder
$120,000/mile $13.33 per KW-mile
Additional cost to remove old conductor, upgrade hardware, work on energized line
Planners have incentive to overbuild T&D systems in anticipation of load growth

GE Energy 2007
47
Overbuild versus Upgrade
T&D systems often built with 50% margin High cost of upgrade may justify use of load management (DSM) or DG to defer or delay investment But upgrade of heavily loaded feeder may reduce losses enough to justify upgrade But DSM and DG (in some cases) may also lower losses There are no easy answers or rules of thumb
GE Energy 2007
48
Electrical Losses
Movement of power through any device incurs losses due to resistance
Can be assessed and minimized but not eliminated
Load-related losses (I2R losses) increase as the square of the load (current)
Can often be reduced by using larger equipment
No-load losses is power required to establish a magnetic field inside wound equipment
Constant as long as equipment is energized Generally proportional to transformer capacity

49
GE Energy 2007
Cost of Losses
Typically represented by two costs component
Demand (or capacity cost) Energy cost
Cost of losses ($/kW/yr) = Demand cost ($/kW/yr) + Energy cost ($/kWh) * 8760 (h/yr) * Loss factor The cost of losses can be considered an operating cost for the T&D system
It takes power to produce power!

GE Energy 2007
50
Demand Cost
Varies with utility depending on assumptions Customer is charged on a per kW basis Some examples for demand cost basis are
Marginal (avoided) cost - cost of capacity required to generate transmit and distribute power Wholesale rate for power utility buys/sells additional power Replacement cost filed with SEC Past investment data Zero - utility has excess capacity
GE Energy 2007
51
Energy Cost
Cost also varies with utility assumptions

y
30000 28000 26000 24000
MW
20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 1-Jan 8-Jan
Cost assessed on a per kWh basis i.e. energy cost varies with time
22000
Some examples for energy cost basis are
Marginal (avoided) cost - cost incurred to produce the additional energy
15-Jan
22-Jan
29-Jan
Contract and spot sale/purchase price

GE Energy 2007
52
Loss Factor
Loss factor (LsF) is used to estimate the average line losses from the peak demand
Average power loss in a period Loss factor = Maximum loss during the period
Usually computed from the load factor (LF)
LsF = A * LF + B * LF2
Where A + B = 1, A = 0.1 0.3, B = 0.7 0.9 A typical relationship is LsF = 0.15 * LF + 0.85 * LF2
Average kW demand Load factor = Peak kW demand

53
GE Energy 2007
Cost of Losses Computation
Consider a typical 12.47 kV, 3-phase, OH feeder, with 15 MW capacity (600 MCM), serving a peak load of 10 MW with 4.5% loss at peak. The load factor is 64%. Given a demand charge of $10/kW and an energy cost of 3.5 cents/kWh, calculate the cost of losses.
Cost of losses = Demand cost + Energy cost * 8760 * LsF Demand cost = ($10/kW) * (.045*10,000 kW) = $4,500 Loss factor LsF = 0.15 * (0.64) + 0.85 * (0.64)2 = 0.444 Energy cost = ($.035/kWh) * (.045*10,000 kW) * 8760 * 0.444 = $61,260 Cost of losses = 4,500 + 61,260 = $65,750
Present worth of losses = $637,000*

* Using a discount factor of 11%
54
PW of cost of losses on the order of original cost of feeder!
GE Energy 2007
Cost of Delivery
The cost of providing electrical service to a typical residential customer (4 kW peak):

Cost $400 $200 $60 $425 $1085 $600 $300 $1985
T&D Level Transmission Substation Feeder Service
Cost Components 4 kW x 100 miles x $1.0/kW-mile 4 kW x $50/kW 4 kW x 1.5 miles x $10/kW-mile 10% of 50 kVA local service system Total Capital Cost O&M, taxes and fees (PW over 30 yrs) Cost of electrical losses (PW over 30 yrs) Estimated cost of power delivery (present worth over 30 years)
Cost varies widely with customer location and class
Goal of the planner is to minimize cost of delivery while maximizing system performance
GE Energy 2007
55
Performance metrics
GE Energy 2007
56
Metrics
Performance metrics The Planning Process Short Range Planning Long Range Planning
A metric is a standard of measurement
no metric exists that can be applied directly to happiness
Qualitative: numerical measures
E.g. Voltage drop on a given 5-mile feeder = 5% Frequency of outages in 2003 = 2.3/customer
Qualitative: non-numerical; (fuzzy) measures
E.g. Onsite inspection reveals that transformers are in fair condition The average customer is satisfied with his service
57
GE Energy 2007
Purpose of Metrics
Monitor status: baseline or point of reference Measure improvement over time Benchmarking (compare and contrast) Documentation Planning and decision-making Input to higher-level processes
GE Energy 2007
58
Monitor Status
Appropriate use of metrics within utility allows the status to be assessed

BC Hydro 2004 Reliability Indices
SAIDI (hrs/yr)
CAIDI (hrs/int.)
2 SAIFI (int./yr)
GE Energy 2007
59
Measure Improvement Over Time
Tracking of metrics allows trends to identified and effectiveness of projects to be assessed

BC Hydro Historical and Projected Reliability
SAIDI (hrs/yr)
4 CAIDI (hrs/int.)
2 SAIFI (int./yr)
0 2002 2003 2004 2005 (projected)
GE Energy 2007
60
Benchmarking
Utility performance can be measured against average and best in class

2004 AVERAGE SAIFI int/yr
2004 AVERAGE SAIDI hrs/yr
Q4
3
400
300
1
0
North American Utilities
BC Hydro
Canadian Utilities
BC Hydro
Canadian Utilities
Q3 Q2 100
Q1
0 North American Utilities 2003

Benchmarking chart from Standard IEEE 1366-2003 activities
GE Energy 2007
SAIDI (min/yr) SAIDI (min/yr) SAIDI (min/yr)

North American Utilities
200
61
Documentation
Metrics provide valuable documentation for a variety of functions
Reporting to management Regulatory requirements Tracking performance Business needs Justification of expenses
GE Energy 2007
62
Planning and Decision-Making Input into Higher Level Processes Metrics form the basis for decisions made up and down the utility enterprise
$75,000 $60,000
Cost to buy one minute of improvement *
Trouble call
Trouble analysis & dispatching $140,000
Confirmation
Repair
233 minutes $180,500
Travel
$150,000
GE Energy 2007
* H. L. Willis, Power Distribution Planning Reference
63
Book, 1997 Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York, NY
Utility Metric Application

Business Management
Financial performance
Budget Planning resource allocation
System performance
Reliability Assessment Cost Analysis
Customer satisfaction
Outages
Repairs
CAPEX
O&M
GE Energy 2007
64
Financial Performance
Key measure is ROR rate of return on equity
Stakeholders may be shareholders, executives, employees, customers, government entity
Cost and budget control are key objectives

t
Simple cost F PW = Present worth (1 + d ) ( ) Levelized cost LC = PW (1d+1d+)d1 Life-cycle cost, FCR, etc.
Cost metric must be complete and relevant

65
Can be a driver or an inhibitor
GE Energy 2007
System Performance
Determine how well system works Measure system capability
Voltage and current Power factor Capacity and utilization
Measure quality of output
Reliability and availability
outage duration and frequency, nines of availability
Power quality
66
Voltage fluctuations, harmonics, flicker
GE Energy 2007
Customer Satisfaction
Determine customer expectations Measure how product and services match customer expectations Qualitative or semi-qualitative measures
Percent who say they are satisfied, not satisfied, etc.
Usually developed from survey and research
JD Power and Associates, consultants, etc.
Increasingly important in industry as customer choice and consumer voice becomes greater
67
GE Energy 2007
Misuse of Metrics
Often used inappropriately for comparisons
Comparison between utilities may not be valid since data are not adjusted to account for differences
To be relevant, benchmarking data should consider differences in
Service area characteristics
geography, environment, rural vs. urban, etc.
System design characteristics
Voltage level, OH vs. UG, network vs. radial
Recording and reporting practices

68
GE Energy 2007
Reliability reporting, exclusions, accounting standards
The Planning Process
GE Energy 2007
69
Planning Criteria and Standards
Viable distribution plan must not only provide good economy but also satisfy criteria for
Equipment Design Layout Loadings Performance Safety
Form a set of requirements for planning process to evaluate alternative solutions

GE Energy 2007
70
Goals versus Criteria
Criteria and standards must be met but not necessarily exceeded
Constraints are fully met if distribution plan falls within their limits No additional benefit for satisfying more than bare minimum (or maximum) requirement Example: voltage and loading limits
Goals are open ended objectives that should be maximized (or minimized)
Example: lower cost, improve reliability

71
GE Energy 2007
The Planning Objective
What is planning?
A method for achieving an end An often customary method of doing something A detailed formulation of a program of action An orderly arrangement of parts of an overall design or objective A detailed program
The goal of T&D planning is to provide orderly, economic expansion of equipment, facilities to meet future demand with acceptable reliability
72
GE Energy 2007
Planning Alternatives
Planning is the process of selection from alternatives
Different substation sites, feeder routes and designs Different switching paradigms, protection schemes Different voltage and loading levels
If there are no alternatives, is there still a need to plan?
Not really, but a documented planning process can help to identify required preparations
GE Energy 2007
73
The Planning Process
The five-step planning process:

Identify the problem What goals are to be achieved? What constraints must be satisfied? Explicitly define the range of application and its limits.
Determine the goals and limits What options are available?
Decreasing flexibility Identify the alternatives
Evaluate the alternatives
Rigorously evaluate all the options.
Select the best alternative
Select the option that best satisfies the goals with respect to the problem.
74
GE Energy 2007
Step 1: Identify the Problem
Stage offers greatest flexibility to move toward an appropriate and complete solution
Solve the right problem!
Planners should identify the exact nature and scope of the problem
Load forecast is an important element
Mistakes at this early stage are more costly than anywhere else
Measure twice and cut once

GE Energy 2007
75
Step 2: Determine the Goals
Performance metrics The Planning process Short range planning Long range planning
Goals provide direction for searching solution space
If you dont know where youre going, youll never get there
Planning criteria must be considered
What level of service do we want? How much risk will we accept? What limits or constrains our action?
Corporate mission and special goals must be taken into consideration

GE Energy 2007
76
Corporate Mission and Goals
A companys corporate mission statement may provide strategic insight for planning guidelines
To be be the premium regional provider of electric power To provide economic electric power for the region To maximize return on equity To maximize return on investment
Special goals are additional unique goals particular to a situation
New facilities will be located inside the county boundary Expansion plans must include targeted DSM All new feeder construction must be 15-kV class
77
Long-term objectives should guide short-term goals
GE Energy 2007
Step 3: Identify the Alternatives
Objectively identify all options available to address the problem Many planning mistakes occur here
Pre-conceived idea of what to do Failing to consider full range of the alternatives Too short a planning horizon, leads to reduced options and higher cost
Do nothing should always be an alternative Use judgment to eliminate alternatives prior to evaluation
GE Energy 2007
78
Step 4: Evaluate the Alternatives
Alternatives must satisfy goals and constraints
Consider all relevant criteria and attributes
E.g. voltage drop, loading, protection, clearances, esthetic impact, costs, flexibility, O&M, risk/liability
Evaluate all criteria fully with respect to resources
Treat all options equitably and be consistent

Be aware of natural biases and external agendas

79
GE Energy 2007
Step 5: Select the Best Alternative
Often practically combined with evaluation step
Definition of best should match goals and
value system usually qualitative
Spend time to understand difference between
best plan and alternatives
Evaluation/Selection process should be able to
distinguish between alternatives resolution

GE Energy 2007
80
Short Range Planning
GE Energy 2007
81
Short Range Planning
Why plan? Because of lead time Lead time is the time it takes to prepare, build, and install facilities Sets the minimum acceptable planning period
If it takes five years to plan, engineer, and build a new station and transmission line, then you must plan at least five years ahead
Planners have no choice but to plan out into the future as long as the lead time
No action means plan is do nothing

82
GE Energy 2007
Typical Minimum Lead Times
T&D Level Lead Time (yrs) Generation 13 EHV Transmission 9 Transmission 8 Sub-transmission 7 Substation 6 Feeder 3 Lateral 0.5 Service 0.1
Effective, minimum-cost planning means looking far enough ahead to allow for all reasonable alternatives, not just the one with the shortest lead time
GE Energy 2007
83
Short Range Planning: Decisions and Commitments Purpose is to make sure that the system can continue to serve load while meeting standards Driven by lead time requirements Must identify purchases and commitments that must be made now for future standard service
Commitment should never be made until lead time is reached
Product of process is a series of decisions and specifications for future changes to the system
GE Energy 2007
84
The Short Range Plan

Load forecast for lead time year(s) Existing system & planned additions through lead time
Short-range planning process
Identified area capacity shortfalls and solutions
Project
Project
Project
Project
Compares existing capability to future needs and initiates projects to address the shortfall
GE Energy 2007
85
Short Range Planning Example
In 5 years projected growth of annual peak load and reliability requirements for Eastside substation will exceed its maximum 2-hour capacity. Something has to be done by five years from now to solve the problem Planning
Identify alternatives Determine which will solve the problem Pick one and do it in time!
GE Energy 2007
86
Long Range Planning
GE Energy 2007
87
Long Range Planning
Looks beyond lead time of equipment
Not concerned with meeting capacity requirements
Why look beyond the lead time?
To determine if short-range solutions have lasting value Can we get by without doing it?
Purpose is to assure that short-range decisions have lasting value over the equipment life and contribute to minimum cost system
Output is evaluation of economy and viability

88
GE Energy 2007
Long Range Planning
Long-range horizon is definition of future for evaluation of short-range planning decisions Identification of mismatches between T&D levels coordination plan Forecast long-range budget needs Identification of corporate long-term direction and strategy A basis for evaluation of new ideas or changes in procedure at a macro level
GE Energy 2007
89
Long Range Planning
Most critical input is long range need

Peak load MVA
Timing is important but not critical
Need to know how much and where
5 10 Years into future
15
GE Energy 2007
90
Great Detail Not Needed
Nothing in long range plan has to be built now
Beyond lead time so no commitments necessary
Only needs enough detail to allow evaluation of economics and fit of short-range plans Utility may have more than one long range plans
We might build this or we might build that under different conditions
These are multi-scenario plans

GE Energy 2007
91
Uncertainty and Multi-Scenario Planning Identify uncertain events or occurrences that may impact future supply/demand Produce a forecast and a plan for each Compare plans to see how needs and spending differ Compare short-range project plans to each long-range scenario plan Try to make short-range decisions that are only needed in all future outcomes
GE Energy 2007
92
Multi-Scenario Planning
Uses several long-range plans to evaluate short-range Neither commitments

Event A Present system Build new facility Event B Time period over which commitments must be made now Present + 4 years + 8 years Events A&B
+ 12 years
GE Energy 2007
Forecast is Key to Identifying Scenario Branches
93
Multiple Scenario Forecast Example 1. Current (1993) load for an American city 2. Base T&D forecast 20 years into future 3. Major theme park in Southwest in 5 years 4. Major theme park in Northeast in 5 years
GE Energy 2007
94
Cannot Use Probabilistic Approach at Forecast Level Probability-weighted sum of all 3 forecasts Has no probability of developing Planning for it spreads system capacity over too much area
Probabilistic forecast satisfies no one scenario

GE Energy 2007
95
Basic T&D Planning Process

Load Forecast 1 25 yrs ahead
Transmission System Planning 5 25 yrs
Substation System Planning 3 20 yrs
Distribution Planning System: 6 25 yrs Feeders: 1 6 yrs
Steps must be coordinated for effective planning

GE Energy 2007
96
Load Forecasting
GE Energy 2007
97
How Load Grows
Load growth has two causes
Addition of new customers existing customers use more power

System Load 10 10 Small area Load
Load changes over time, in magnitude as well as location Load growth on small area basis, is different than at a system level
20
Fundamental to distribution load forecasting
10
10
20 yrs
GE Energy 2007
98
Distribution Load Forecasting
Answer three key questions that define T&D planning: When? Where? What?
Timing: project annual figures over time slices (1, 5, 10, 20 yrs) into the future, 3 to 5 times the lead time Location: forecast load growth for small areas (less than 1/10th size of service area) Quantities: project peak demand (kW) at every locality, customer type, and energy (kWh)
Coordinate with corporate forecast, marketing plan, customer-level planning (DSM, etc.), enduse analysis of load/customer value
GE Energy 2007
99
Small Area Forecasting
Methods used include
Informal: based on judgment, heuristics, local knowledge, guess
Usually wrong, little documentation, unacceptable
Trending: trend historical feeder or substation peaks, multiple regression curve-fit, extrapolation
Load growth not linear, cannot trend vacant lots and load transfers?
Land Use Simulation: replicate load growth process
Multiple scenarios, explains growth, widely accepted

Advanced methods: not widely used and accepted

100
GE Energy 2007
pattern recognition, spatial geometric, transfer coupling
Distribution Load Forecast Results
Warning of forthcoming overloads and system problems
Future load projections for substation and feeder planning
Sensitivity studies of possible impact of uncertain events (multi-scenario studies)

GE Energy 2007
101
Reliability Concepts
GE Energy 2007
102
What is Reliability?
Reliability Concepts Distribution reliability Reliability metrics Reliability targets
The extent to which an experiment, test, or measuring procedure yields the same results on repeated trials
Deserving of confidence based on experience
A system (or person) is reliable if it (or he/she) can be trusted to perform to a required standard Required standard implies that there is a metric that defines levels of reliability
103
Will talk more about this later
GE Energy 2007
System Reliability?
A system is a combination of components connected in series and/or in parallel The reliability of the system depends on the component reliability and the connectivity Component reliability is defined by
= frequency of failure rate (failures/yr) r = expected repair/replacement time (hrs/failure)

System , r
Component
2, r 2 1, r 1 4, r 4
3, r 3 6, r6 5, r 5
104
, r
GE Energy 2007
System of Series Components

2, r2 s, rs
Equivalent System
1, r1
1 = 2 = 0.1 failures/yr
r1 = r2 = 5 hrs/failures
Series Components
System forced outage rate (failures/yr), s = 1 + 2 = 0.1 + 0.1 = 0.2
System mean outage duration (hrs/failure), 1r1 + 2 r2 r (.1)(5) + (.1)(5) rs = = = =5 1 + 2 0.1 + 0.1
System mean total downtime (hrs/yr),
U s = s rs = (0.2)(5) = 1
105
GE Energy 2007
Reliability of a system with s identical components in series
.995
.875
System reliability worse than individual components

106
GE Energy 2007
System of Parallel Components

1, r1 p, rp 2, r 2
Equivalent System
1 = 2 = 0.1 failures/yr
r1 = r2 = 5 hrs/failure
Parallel Components
System forced outage rate (failures/yr),

12 (r1 + r2 )
8760 (.1)(.1)(5 + 5) = = 0.0000114 8760
Once every 87,719 years
p =
System mean outage duration (hrs/failure),

r1r2 r = (5)(5) = 2.5 rp = = r1 + r2 r 5+5
System mean total downtime (hrs/yr), U p = p rp = (.0000114)(2.5) = 0.0000285

107
GE Energy 2007
Reliability of a system with s identical components in parallel
.99
.90
System reliability better than individual components

108
GE Energy 2007
Distribution Reliability
GE Energy 2007
109
Distribution System Reliability
Concepts of series and parallel connected blocks is applied to distribution reliability

Big_Bad_Event s T ransmission
F4 F3 F2 F1
Feeder Feeder
subst at ion
Feeder
Feeder
T ransformer
T ransformer T ransformer
T ransformer
NP
NP
NP
NP
Secondary Bus
System reliability assessed using the same principles

110
GE Energy 2007
Distribution Reliability Components
In electric distribution reliability, components are
Line/cable sections and busbars Transformers and generators s Protection and sectionalizing devices Regulators, capacitors, reactors Anything that directly or indirectly disrupts the flow of power
CB
Reliability is characterized by the ability of the system to deliver power to the end-customer
111
GE Energy 2007
Outages and Interruptions
A failure or outage occurs when equipment is not in service An interruption occurs when insufficient equipment exists to serve the customer Outages cause interruptions
But all outages do not cause interruptions
Two key aspects of interruptions are:
Frequency Duration
112
GE Energy 2007
Interruption Frequency and Duration Frequency: how often interruption occurs
Function of engineering factors: equipment selection, condition, layout, protection design, etc.
Duration: how long interruption lasts
Function of operating factors: switching schemes, repair crews, speed in trouble-shooting, etc.
Various customers react differently to frequency and duration of interruptions
In some cases, a short (15 second) interruption can be nearly as serious as a longer interruption, e.g. computers, robotic control, synchronous motors In other cases, short interruptions create few problems
113
GE Energy 2007
Power Quality and Reliability

Power Quality
Frequency Variation
Sags
Reliability Availability
Swells
n Su Flicker tio sta p Interruption Duration ine ru r nte cy Fr d In I eq ter ry uen ue ru nta req nc pt e ion y om F M Noise Harmonic Distortion
Transients
GE Energy 2007
PQ problem is deviation from a perfect sinusoidal voltage source

R. E. Brown, Electric Power Distribution Reliability, 2002 Marcel Dekker
114
Reliability Terms and Definitions
Contingency: an unexpected or unscheduled event
Open Circuit: a discontinuity that interrupts load current without causing fault current to flow Fault: a short circuit; can be temporary or permanent in nature
Temporary Fault a fault that will clear if allowed to deionize, e.g. insulator flashover due to lightning strike Permanent Fault a fault that must be repaired by a crew or one that will eventually burn clear (self-clearing)
115
Maintenance events are not contingencies
GE Energy 2007
Outage: de-energizing of a piece of equipment Interruption: de-energizing a customer
GE Energy 2007
Momentary Interruption: de-energizing a customer for less than a few minutes (usually 5) Momentary Interruption Event: one or more momentary interruptions within a several minute time interval, e.g. multiple reclosing on a fault Sustained Interruption: de-energizing a customer for more than a few minutes (usually 5). Most sustained interruptions result from open circuits and faults.
116
Availability: the probability that a piece of equipment or a customer is energized
Unavailability: probability of not being energized

Nines 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Annual Downtime 36.5 days Some developing countries 3.7 days 8.8 hours US residential customers 52.6 minutes 5.3 minutes Manufacturing plants 31.5 seconds 3.2 seconds 0.3 seconds Internet data center 31.5 ms (1.9 cycles)
117
Nines of Availability
Availability (%) 90 99 99.9 99.99 99.999 99.9999 99.99999 99.999999 99.9999999
GE Energy 2007
Measuring Reliability
Reliability indices measure reliability as a function of interruption frequency and duration Purpose of indices
Monitor status: baseline or point of reference Measure improvement over time Benchmarking (compare and contrast) Documentation Planning and decision-making Input to higher-level processes
118
GE Energy 2007
Reliability Metrics (Indices)
GE Energy 2007
119
Reliability Indices
There are many distribution reliability indices in use today
Customer-based
SAIFI, SAIDI, CAIDI, ASAI, CAIFI, CTAIDI, MAIFI, MAIFIE, CEMIn, CEMSMIn
Load-based
ASIFI, ASIDI, ACIDI, ACIFI
Power quality-based
SARFIx, SIARFIx, SMARFIx, STARFIx
Reliability Indices are gaining popularity due to reporting requirements

120
GE Energy 2007
States with reliability reporting requirements*
* As of August 2001
GE Energy 2007
121
C. A. Warren and M. J. Adams, Reliability on the Regulatory Horizon, IEEE T&D Expo, Atlanta, GA, October 2001
Deregulation status of US states*
* As of February 2003
GE Energy 2007
122
From the Energy Information Agency, http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/chg_str/restructure.pdf
Most Popular Reliability Indices
System Average Interruption Frequency Index

Total Number of Customers Served /yr
Number of Customer Interruptions SAIFI =
System Average Interruption Duration

Total Number of Customers Served hr/yr
Customer Interruption Durations SAIDI =
Customer Average Interruption Duration Index

hr
Customer Interruption Durations = SAIDI CAIDI = Number of Customer Interruptions SAIFI

Customer Hours Service Availability pu Customer Hours Service Demand
Average Service Availability Index
ASAI =
GE Energy 2007
123
Most Popular Reliability Indices
Average System Interruption Frequency Index
Connected kVA Interrupted ASIFI = /yr Total Connected kVA Served
Average System Interruption Duration Index
Connected kVA Hours Interrupted ASIDI = hrs/yr Total Connected kVA Served
Momentary Average Interruption Frequency Index

Total Number of Customers Served /yr
Number of Customer Momentary Interruptions MAIFI =
System Average RMS Sag Frequency Index
Total Number of Customer Critical Voltage Sags /yr SARFI = Total Number of Customers Served
124
GE Energy 2007
Use of Indices
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
% of Utilitites Using Index
20
10
I I ID SA C DI AI I SA A F SI A I
F AI S
I ID AS
Index
I IF A M
e th O
r C
I D AI T C
I IF A
With so many utilities using the same indices, it is natural that comparisons will be made
IEEE Working Group on System Design, A Survey of Distribution Reliability Measurement Practices in the US, IEEE Trans. On Pwr. Del., Vol. 14, No. 1, Jan. 1999
GE Energy 2007
125
Benchmarking 2003 IEEE Survey
Quartile SAIDI IEEE 1 83.59 2 110.99 3 156.10 4 401.55
All Respondents SAIDI All SAIFI IEEE SAIFI All CAIDI IEEE CAIDI All 119.45 0.94 1.29 71.04 84.77 223.68 1.23 1.59 93.69 146.73 400.24 1.50 2.14 121.77 211.73 Q4 2352.29 3.15 5.53 424.74 1154.85
400
Data for 95 companies throughout the US & Canada, from rural electric co-ops to IOUs.
300
Q3 Q2
100
Q1
0 North American Utilities 2003

IEEE Working Group on System Design, Measuring Performance Of Electric Power 126 Distribution Systems IEEE Std. 1366-2003, Presented at the NARUC Staff Subcommittee on Electric Reliability, Washington, DC, February 13, 2005
GE Energy 2007
SAIDI (min/yr) SAIDI (min/yr) SAIDI (min/yr) 200
Benchmarking - 1991 German Survey

SAIFI (/yr) 0.8 0.5 0.3 2.5 0.3 5.0 1.5 1.2 5.0 0.4 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.4 300 120 67 27 150 90 92 73 390 180 54 300 34 78 120 45 60 79 0.99926 0.99966 0.99990 0.99943 0.99994 0.99943 0.99940 0.99987 0.99995 33 30 7 120 15 41 60 20 48 58 0.99994 0.99994 0.99999 0.99977 0.99997 38.3 51.2 313.7 496.9 975.3 34.6 73.2 653.4 975.3 SAIDI (min/yr) CAIDI (min) ASAI (pu) Density (people/mi2)
Urban Systems Finland Sweden Denmark Italy Netherlands Rural Systems Finland Sweden Denmark Italy Netherlands Overall Norway United States United Kingdom Netherlands
GE Energy 2007
Systems with longer feeders tend to have poorer reliability

127
Benchmarking Data for Six Different Utilities

Average Annual Values 1988-1992
SAIFI and SAIDI Comparison for Six Utilities
1 2 3 4 5 6
Service Area Dense urban area Urban/suburban Suburban & rural Urban & rural Mild Rural, mountainous Rural, mountainous
Climate Hot summers, bitter winters Hot nearly year round High isokeuranic (lightning) year round Mild seasons Bitter winters
SAIFI .12 2.7 2.O 2.1 1.1 2.3
SAIDI 16 34 97 122 168 220
Geography and climate impact system design and service statistics

128
GE Energy 2007
Problems with Benchmarking
Inconsistent data definition
momentary interruptions major events and storms
Data collection issues
Use of OMS vs manual recording
Radically different system designs
OH vs UG, network vs radial
Environmental and geographic differences Stochastic nature of reliability stuff happens

129
GE Energy 2007
Momentary Interruption Durations Threshold

29% 23% 19% 23%
35
30
25
20
15
% of Utility Responses
10 6%
0 1-min 3-min 5-min Do not use Other
IEEE 1366 standard is 5 minutes

IEEE Working Group on System Design, A Survey of Distribution Reliability Measurement Practices in the US, IEEE Trans. On Pwr. Del., Vol. 14, No. 1, Jan. 1999
GE Energy 2007
130
Storm and Major Event Exclusions
Utilities are not required to include storms and major events in reliability index calculations Definition of major event day varies with utility/state
State 1
Major Storms excluded if 15% of customers served are interrupted over the duration of the event.
State 2
A Major Storm is a period of adverse weather during which service interruptions affect at least 10 percent of the customers in an operating area and/or result in customers being without electric service for durations of at least 24 hours.
State 3
It was the result of a major weather event which caused more than 10% or a district or total company customers to be without service IEEE Working Group on System Design, Measuring Performance Of Electric Power 131 GE Energy 2007 at a given time. Distribution Systems IEEE Std. 1366-2003, Presented at the NARUC Staff
Subcommittee on Electric Reliability, Washington, DC, February 13, 2005
Major Event Day (MED) Definition
Different Measurement Methods - Same Company
225
200
175
Method 1 Method 2 Method 3
150
125
SAIDI (min)
100
75
50
25 1999 2000
Year
0 1997
1998
2001
2002
2003
Major event definition impacts reliability measures

GE Energy 2007
IEEE 1366 2.5 Beta Methodology
Allows consistent definition of major event across utilities based on historical performance
1.
2.
3. 4.
5.
6. 7.
Collect values of daily SAIDI for five sequential years ending on the last day of the last complete reporting period. If fewer than five years of historical data are available, use all available historical data If any day in the data set has a value of zero for SAIDI, do not include that day in the analysis. Take the natural logarithm (ln) of each daily SAIDI value in the data set. Find (alpha), the average of the logarithms (also known as the log-average) of the data set. Find (beta), the standard deviation of the logarithms (also known as the logstandard deviation) of the data set. Compute the major event day threshold, TMED, using the equation: TMED = e( +2.5 ) Any day with daily SAIDI greater than the threshold All Sustained Interruptions value TMED that occurs during the subsequent Recommend that targets be set on Day-to-Day reporting period is classified as a major event day. Operations.
Including: Transmission, Planned, Etc.
GE Energy 2007
IEEE Working Group on System Design, Measuring Performance Of Electric Power Distribution Systems IEEE Std. 1366-2003, Presented at the NARUC Staff Subcommittee on Electric Reliability, Washington, DC, February 13, 2005
Day-to-Day Operations
Report on both data sets separately.
Major Event Days
133
States Moving Toward Reliability Regulation

MT ND MN WI IA IL KS OK AZ TX NM AR LA MO IN MI OH KY TN MS AL GA SC WV PA ME VT NH NY SD NE UT CO
BC
WA
OR WY
ID
NV
MA,CT,RI VA NC MD,DE,NJ
CA
FL
Alaska Hawaii
Adopted MED Reliability Standards being considered
Considering Adoption of MED
Reliability Standards in place
*source NRRI 2001 survey & other regulatory documents
GE Energy 2007
Benchmarking Data
There will always be some data inconsistency, mainly due to
Data collection process/system differences Exclusion criteria differences
IEEE 1366-2003
addresses data basis issues by clearly defining the rules It DOES NOT address the data collection issues
Benchmarking is still a valid, valuable activity

135
Must be aware of the root causes for observed differences!
GE Energy 2007
Reliability Targets
GE Energy 2007
136
Reliability Targets
Reliability targets are set internally or by state regulators Define goals for engineering and operations
Targets drive capital and O&M spending on improvement projects and additional resources
Four methods of setting targets:
1. Arbitrary management chooses targets 2. Survey customer survey of preferences 3. Historical comparison to previous years 4. Value-based analysis of total societal impact
137
GE Energy 2007
Value-Based Planning
50000
40000 Point of Optimal Social Welfare
30000
Cost ($/cust/yr)
20000
ost tal C To
10000
er C Custom ost
Utilit y Cost
0 0 1
2 SAIDI (hr/yr)
GE Energy 2007
Optimal level of reliability is the point of minimum total societal cost

138
Mandates and Incentives
Targets usually include
Minimum (constraint) and objective (goal) targets for a combination indices (SAIFI, SAIDI, CAIDI, etc.)
MAIFI targets not widely used but increasing
Broad mandate to improve reliability of deficient areas, e.g. bottom 10% of feeders or 10 worse feeders
Rewards and penalties are used to simulate market forces

139
Fees, customer rebates and rate structure
GE Energy 2007
Performance-Based Rates
Regulatory statutes that reward utilities for good reliability and penalize them for poor performance
Performance usually based on SAIDI, SAIFI A common method is to have a dead zone
Max. Penalty
120
100
Max. Bonus
80
$1,000,000s
60
40
20
Dead Zone
1 2 SAIDI 3 4 5
Frequently, utilities are rewarded or penalized via the rate case process
140
GE Energy 2007
Cost of Poor Reliability
GE Energy 2007
141
Total cost of power interruption in the US
Cost of poor reliability Causes of interruptions Assessing reliability Improving reliability
The total annual cost of power interruptions in the US is estimated to be $79 billion. The majority of this cost is attributed to commercial and industrial customers, and is mostly caused by momentary outages.
Kristina Hamachi LaCommare and Joseph H. Eto, "Understanding the Cost of Power Interruptions to U.S. Electricity Consumers," http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMP/EMP-pubs.html
GE Energy 2007
142
Cost of Poor Reliability Components Initial Cost of Interruption ($/kW)
Computers crash Electronics malfunction Motors drop out Processes ruined Tools broken Scrap
Time Varying Cost ($/kWh)
GE Energy 2007
Lost production Unused Labor / Overtime
143
Factors Affecting Cost
Customer cost is very system and customer specific
EPRI estimates that nine-nines availability is necessary for 0.6% of the population containing critical loads that need to be served.
Some factors that affect cost include
Customer/process type
Residential, semiconductor plant, refrigeration warehouse, summer beach house, movie theater, biotech research lab
Customer size Length of interruption Time of day, day of week, month of year Advance warning GE Energy 2007
144
Average US Interruption Costs
50
l rci a me om
40
C
30
ial u str I nd
20
Customer Cost ($/kW)
10
Res identia l
0 0 1 2 3 4
Duration of Interruption (hours)
Customer interruption costs are typically estimated based on surveys

145
GE Energy 2007
1-Hr Industrial Interruption Costs
GE Energy 2007
146
Data from a University of Saskatchewan Survey on Customer Interruption Costs
1-Hr Commercial Interruption Costs
GE Energy 2007
147
Data from a University of Saskatchewan Survey on Customer Interruption Costs
Cost of Poor Reliability is a Driver
Cost of poor reliability is a driver for implementation of improvement projects and devices
Feature Availability
Subject to transmission faults Subject to transmission faults
sometimes paid for by industrial customers

MV Static MV Mechanical Transfer Switch Transfer Switch UPS Backup Generator Flywheel/ Gen Set
Limited by gen set backup
Cost
Qualitative Comparison of some Reliability and Power Quality Improvement Options

Limited w/o gen backup Rotary portion only
Duration
Feeder availability Feeder availability Duration of batteries
Duration of fuel
Diagnostics Efficiency Environmental Concerns

Unless gas-filled switchgear used
Battery disposal
Noise, fuel, emissions
Only for gen set
Fault Current Contribution

STS will open on reverse current Unless closed source transition
Maintenance Requirements
No moving parts
Moving parts
Batteries
Transfer Speed
< 4 ms None
24 ms - 5 s During closed transition
< 4 ms During synchronization
10 - 30 s During synchronization
< 4 ms During transitions
Paralleling Sources Redundancy/ Backup Switching Transition
Mechanical bypass
None unless bypass feature provided
None unless additional units installed
Open to source, closed to load
Open to source, open to load
Closed to load
Closed to source, closed to load
Closed to load at start, closed to source when returning to normal
GE Energy 2007
High Medium Low None
148
Causes of Interruptions
GE Energy 2007
149
Common Causes of Interruptions
Equipment failures
Transformers
Catastrophic failures and overloads
Underground cable
Electromechanically and water treeing, dig-ins
Overhead lines
Linked to vegetation, animals, severe weather
Circuit breakers
Internal faults, mis-operations (not opening or closing)
Surge arresters, insulators and bushings

150
GE Energy 2007
Puncture, thermal runaway, dielectric breakdown
Animals
Squirrels, mice/rats/gophers, birds, snakes, large animals,
Severe weather
Wind storms, lightning storms, heat, ice storms, waves, earthquakes, fire
Trees Humans
Maintenance/installation errors, vehicular accidents, dig-ins, vandalism

151
GE Energy 2007

Utility 1 Utilty 2 Utility 3
60
50
40
Major causes of interruption for three US utilities
30
20
10
Equipment failures are always a top cause and can be mitigated by quality purchase and proper installation and maintenance
Lightning Animals Overloads Traffic Accidents Dig-ins
Equipment Failures
Trees
0.45 5 kV 15 kV 25 kV
0.4
0.35
0.3
Major causes of interruptions for three US voltage classes
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0 Trees Lightning Other Total
Equipment Failures
In general, the higher the voltage the more likely there will be interruptions on overhead systems due to equipment failures, lightning, trees and animals
R. E. Brown, Electric Power Distribution Reliability, 2002 Marcel Dekker J. J. Burke, Hard to Find Information About Distribution Systems, Jan. 2005
GE Energy 2007
152
Assessing Reliability
GE Energy 2007
153
Assessing Reliability
Two main types or reliability assessment
Historical: compute reliability indices using archived data on outages and interruptions
Can determine the current system performance May (carefully) be used to project future performance Cannot be used for multiple-scenario analysis
Predictive: assess reliability of system using a Connectivity model with component reliability data
Usually calibrated using historical reliability indices Historical interruption data may be used to represent component reliability GE Energy 2007 Excellent for what-if scenarios; project development
154
Predictive Reliability Model
Consists of connectivity and data
Connectivity describes the manner in which distribution components interact to form the system
Sources include system maps, one-line diagrams, GIS databases and CAD files
Component data describes the failure, repair and remedial characteristics of the individual system components
Sources include utility databases and industry sources such as IEEE Gold Book, papers, and publications
155
GE Energy 2007
Connectivity Model A functionally accurate description of the topographical arrangement is critical to capturing the diversity of supply, equipment redundancies, remedial actions and mitigating measures.
GE Energy 2007
156
Component Reliability Data
Permanent failure rate the number of times that a component will experience a permanent fault in a given year Temporary failure rate the number of times that a component will experience a temporary fault (one that can be cleared by de-energizing the line) in a given year Mean time to repair the average time to repair a component once it has failed Mean time to switch the average time to perform switching actions to restore customers after a fault (or isolate the fault) following the action of protective devices
157
GE Energy 2007
Standard Bathtub Curve for Equipment Failure
Failure Rate
Infant Mortality Period
Normal (Useful) Life Period
Wear-Out Period
Time
Failure rate () characterized by flat area of curve

158
GE Energy 2007
Some Commercial Reliability Assessment Tools

PowerSystem Specific Looped/Mesh ed Analysis
Website URL
Distribution Reliability Software
Geograpahically-Based Tools Cymdist, Cyme-CGI ReliNet (CadPad), ABB Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No No No Yes No No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No No No No No
SynerGEE, Advantica-Stoner
Windmil, Milsoft
http://cyme.cognicase-hosting.com/products/cymdist/ http://www.abb.us/ http://www.advantica.biz/stoner_software/synergee_electric/ default.htm http://www.milsoft.com/milsoft/web.nsf/pages/reliability_an alysis_overview?open http://www.edsa.com/ http://www.etap.com/reliability.htm http://www.skm.com/products/index.htm http://www.shawgrp.com/PTI/software/adept/index.cfm
One-Line-Diagram-Based Tools Advanced Power System Reliability, EDSA ETAP Powerstation, OTI Power Tools for Windows, SKM PSS/Adept, PTI Block-Diagram-Based Tools AvSim, Isograph Software BlockSim, ReliaSoft CARE, BQR Reliability Engineering ENRiCO, Clockwork Solutions MEADEP, SoHaR
RAM, Reilass
RAPTOR, ARINC Relex, Relex Software
http://www.isograph.com/avsim.htm http://www.reliasoft.com/BlockSim/index.html http://www.bqr.com/care1.html http://www.clockwork-solutions.com/denricointro.htm http://www.sohar.com/software/meadep/index.html http://www.reliability-safetysoftware.com/products/product_ramc.htm http://www.arinc.com/products/raptor/ http://www.relexsoftware.com/products/index.asp

159
GE Energy 2007
Improving Reliability
GE Energy 2007
160
Improving Distribution Reliability
Two main ways to improve system reliability
Design: focus on system topology, connectivity and switching possibilities Operation: focus on aspects of equipment maintenance, inspection and repair
Effective reliability improvement strategies are best implemented as part of a distribution plan
Incorporates relevant goals and criteria Thorough system analysis is performed Cost and historical performance are considered
161
GE Energy 2007
Protection devices and strategies
Fuses, reclosers or sectionalizers on branches and laterals
Line reclosers on main OH trunk and branches
Sectionalizers on laterals where fuses cannot coordinate and on trunk
Reclosing on main breaker with fuse saving or fuse clearing scheme

Use fuse saving in areas where fuse coordination is possible
Main Breaker (lock out after 4th opening) R S
Use fuse clearing in areas with high fault current
SA (count = 3) S
SB (count = 2) S
R R
Reclosing on main breaker
Line recloser
Alternatively, keep fuse saving and use automative seectionalizers in areas where fuses cannot coordinate
No reclosing on main breaker
Line reclosers
R
R R Overhead Underground Overhead
S S
GE Energy 2007
162
Sectionalizing switches
Improve reliability by allowing faults to be isolated and customer service to be restored while fault is repaired
Automation
Monitoring and control equipment to allow for faster switching, fault location and restoration Automating a few key switches gives great benefit, but there is diminishing marginal returns Greater impact on SAIDI than SAIFI
163
GE Energy 2007
Improving crew response
Speed up restoration and service times after a fault has occurred
Emphasis is on SAIDI index
Outage management systems
Faulted circuit indicators
Automatic fault location devices
Increased number of crews and dispatch centers
Work management systems and automated crew dispatch

164
GE Energy 2007
Effective crew training
Reducing equipment failures
Most effective way to improve reliability (preventive)
Emphasis is on SAIFI index
Increased inspection and monitoring
Tree trimming programs
Marking/labeling, call before digging programs
Use of covered (tree) wire or spacer cable
Infrared inspection programs
Cable replacement programs
Wildlife protection programs
Lightning protection (arresters, shield wire, effective grounding)

165
Transformer load management (TLM) programs
GE Energy 2007
Proactive maintenance strategies (TBM, CBM, RCM)
System configuration
Reduce exposure on feeder layout
Relocate or create more normally open (tie) points
Reconductor, add new feeders or substations
Looped or networked vs. radial
Underground vs. overhead
System voltage
Higher voltage - more susceptible to lightning, tree, animal events, more exposure
Lower voltage - smaller feeders interrupt fewer customers when they go out (4 kV generally more reliable than 34.5 kV)
166
GE Energy 2007
Reliability Improvement Exercise
GE Energy 2007
167

2007-FreemanSystem Planning and Reliability - 3-07 (Read-Only)

Diunggah oleh

Informasi Dokumen

Deskripsi Asli:

Judul Asli

Hak Cipta

Format Tersedia

Bagikan dokumen Ini

Bagikan atau Tanam Dokumen

Opsi Berbagi

Apakah menurut Anda dokumen ini bermanfaat?

Apakah konten ini tidak pantas?

Hak Cipta:

Format Tersedia

2007-FreemanSystem Planning and Reliability - 3-07 (Read-Only)

Diunggah oleh

Hak Cipta:

Format Tersedia

Distribution System Planning and Reliability October 2007 Lavelle Freeman

Copyright 2007 General Electric Company

Distribution Course is presented in two parts

Equipment Application (2 four hour sessions)

Fundamentals of distribution equipment application and system design March 12 - 13

System Planning and Reliability (2 four hour sessions)

Distribution system reliability and system planning March 14 - 15

Some overlap between courses

Course Outline (Day 1)

Course Outline (Day 2)

Distribution System Planning and Reliability

Missions and goals

Capacity Frequency Voltage Reliability

Loads are typically distributed over a wide area

Must supply enough power to meet instantaneous demand

Utilities are experts at designing for capacity

50% of a utilitys capital is for capacity design

Capacity requirements dictate equipment size (rating)

Dominant frequency in North America is 60 Hz

Service Voltage Ranges from ANSI Standard C84

Overvoltages or undervoltages may lead to damaged equipment, misoperations, loss-of-life

Transient voltage deviations are unacceptable

Harmonic distortion, sags, swells, surges Power quality issues

Worldwide Voltage and Frequency Use

220-240 volts - 175 countries 100-127 volts - 39 countries.

Utilities need to plan for reliability like capacity

Most Interruptions Occur on the Distribution System

Ten-Year Service Interruption Statistics by Level of Cause

Customer-hours out of service (millions)

0 Generation Trans Substation Feeders Service T&D System Level

Mission of a Typical U.S. T&D System

And do it all for the lowest possible cost

Challenges to the U.S. T&D Mission

Increasing performance pressures

Customer service, reliability, power quality, response to major events

Cost escalation and regulatory uncertainty

Majority of T&D assets approaching end of useful life

Aging workforce and shrinking talent pool

Goal for Survival

Distribution System Planning and Reliability

Basic Design and Operation Principles

From Generation to Customer

Distribution feeders 4 34 kV Sub-transmission 69 kV, 138 kV Transmission 138 kV, 345 kV

Facility with own distribution system

Every time the path is split, voltage is reduced

The Basic T&D Levels

Utility responsibility ends at the meter

Hierarchical Voltage Levels

Sample Statistics for a Typical US Utility

Transmission Subtransmission Substations

Feeders Service Trans Secondaries and Services Customer

Total capacity increases toward customer, average capacity/utilization decreases

Transmission versus Distribution

Distribution System Components

Primary Feeders and Laterals

Step down voltage to utilization level

typically 120 or 120/208 volts in the US, 240/416 volts in Europe

Serves 2 12 customers depending on size Capacity varies,5 kVA to 166 kVA

For large customers 2 or 3 may be connected for multi-phase service

Secondaries and Services

may be 3-phase for secondary networks

Mostly 3-phase In European systems