Anda di halaman 1dari 77

North America High Yield Research

April 12, 2012

High-Yield Relative Value Weekly


For the week ended April 11, 2012
Changes and additions to relative value recommendations

Contents

The table below is an at-a-glance summary of the changes in this weeks


Relative Value Analysis recommendations versus last weeks recommendations.

Aerospace/Defense
Automotive
Building
Building Materials
Cable/Satellite
Chemicals
Consumer Products

2
4
8
11
12
18
20

Yilma Abebe
Eric Selle
Susan Berliner
Yilma Abebe
Michael Pace
Tarek Hamid
Carla Casella, CFA

(1-212) 270-3265
(1-212) 270-9624
(1-212) 270-3085
(1-212) 270-3265
(1-212) 270-6530
(1-212) 834-5468
(1-212) 270-6798

Energy

22

Gregg Brody

(1-212) 834-5997

Food and Restaurants

32

Carla Casella, CFA

(1-212) 270-6798

Gaming

34

Susan Berliner

(1-212) 270-3085

Healthcare

36

David Common, CFA

(1-212) 270-5260

Industrials

42

Yilma Abebe

(1-212) 270-3265

Leisure

44

Michael Pace

(1-212) 270-6530

Lodging

46

Susan Berliner

(1-212) 270-3085

Media

47

Avi Steiner

(1-212) 270-5512

Metals and Mining

50

Dave Katz

(1-212) 270-4593

Paper and Packaging

54

Tarek Hamid

(1-212) 834-5468

Retail

58

Carla Casella, CFA

(1-212) 270-6798

Services

61

Yilma Abebe

(1-212) 270-3265

Shipping

63

Jenna Giannelli

(1-212) 270-9455

Technology

64

Thomas J. Egan

(1-212) 270-2149

Transportation

68

Mark Streeter

(1-212) 834-5086

Utility

69

Dave Katz

(1-212) 270-4593

Wireless Telecommunications

71

Thomas J. Egan

(1-212) 270-2149

Coupon

Texas Petrochemical Group 8.250% Sr. Sec. Notes due 2017

Peter D. Acciavatti AC

(1-212) 270-9633

Sector

Change
Recom.
From

Change
Recom.
To

Chemicals

Sell

Hold

peter.acciavatti@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Page

Analyst

Phone

Wireline Telecommunications
73
Thomas J. Egan
North America Credit Research directory page 75

See page 76 for analyst certification and important disclosures.


J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest
that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

(1-212) 270-2149

J.P. Morgan High-Yield Relative Value Weekly is


available on the J.P. Morgan MorganMarkets
website: www.morganmarkets.com

www.morganmarkets.com

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Aerospace/Defense Yilma Abebe (1-212) 270-3265
Coupon

Desc.

Recom.

Maturity

Alliant Techsystems (ATK)


L + 200
Term Loan A
NR
7-Oct-15
6.750%
Sr Sub Nts
Hold
1-Apr-16
6.875%
Sr Sub Nts
Hold
15-Sep-20
1
BE Aerospace (BEAV)
8.500%
Sr Nts
Hold
1-Jul-18
6.875%
Sr Nts
Hold
1-Oct-20
5.250%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Apr-22
Bombardier (BBDBCN)
6.750%
Sr Nts
NR
1-May-12
6.300%
Sr Nts
NR
1-May-14
7.250%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Nov-16
7.500%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Mar-18
7.750%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Mar-20
6.125%
Sr Nts
NR
15-May-21
5.750%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Mar-22
7.450%
Sr Nts
NR
1-May-34
Colt Defense (CLTDEF)
8.750%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Nov-17
DynCorp (DCP)
L + 500
Term Loan B
NR
7-Jul-16
10.375%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Jul-17
Esterline Technologies (ESL)
6.625%
Sr Nts
Hold
1-Mar-17
7.000%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Aug-20
Hexcel (HXL)
6.750%
Sr Sub Nts
Hold
1-Feb-15
Huntington Ingalls (HII)
L + 300
Term Loan
NR
30-Mar-16
6.875%
Sr Nts
Buy
15-Mar-18
7.125%
Sr Nts
Buy
15-Mar-21
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS)
10.000% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien) NR
1-Jun-17
1. Pro forma for recently completed acquisitions.
Note: Loan yields are to maturity; spreads are over libor.
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

Amount
Outst.
($ mn)

LTM
EBITDA

Debt/
EBITDA

Sr. Sec./
EBITDA

Net Debt./
EBITDA

EBITDA/
Int. Exp

Total Debt/
TEV

TEV/
LTM EBITDA

Equity
Mkt
Cap

NR/BBBBa3/BBBa3/BB-

$400.0
$400.0
$350.0

99.00
102.38
106.00

3.08%
5.33%
5.74%

228bp
516bp
455bp

na
1-Apr-13
15-Sep-18

na
1-Apr-13
15-Sep-15

na
101.13
103.44

$624
$624
$624

2.1x
2.1x
2.1x

0.6x
0.6x
0.6x

1.5x
1.5x
1.5x

6.6x
6.6x
6.6x

49%
49%
49%

4.3x
4.3x
4.3x

$1,715.3
$1,715.3
$1,715.3

Ba2/BB
Ba2/BB
Ba2/BB

$600.0
$650.0
$500.0

109.75
109.00
100.00

3.64%
4.94%
5.25%

344bp
436bp
370bp

1-Jul-13
1-Oct-15
1-Apr-20

1-Jul-13
1-Oct-15
1-Apr-17

104.25
103.44
102.63

$558
$558
$558

2.5x
2.5x
2.5x

0.2x
0.2x
0.2x

2.4x
2.4x
2.4x

5.3x
5.3x
5.3x

23%
23%
23%

10.8x
10.8x
10.8x

$4,677.7
$4,677.7
$4,677.7

Ba2/BB+
Ba2/BB+
Ba2/BB+
Ba2/BB+
Ba2/BB+
Ba2/BB+
Ba2/BB+
Ba2/BB+

$151.1
$162.0
$785.0
$650.0
$850.0
$780.0
$500.0
$250.0

100.13
105.50
103.25
109.50
110.25
98.50
96.63
101.00

3.59%
3.48%
5.62%
5.59%
6.10%
6.34%
6.21%
7.36%

355bp
318bp
549bp
451bp
455bp
475bp
421bp
464bp

1-May-12
1-May-14
15-Nov-12
15-Mar-18
15-Mar-20
15-May-21
15-Mar-22
1-May-34

nc
nc
15-Nov-12
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc

nc
nc
102.42
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc

$1,657
$1,657
$1,657
$1,657
$1,657
$1,657
$1,657
$1,657

3.0x
3.0x
3.0x
3.0x
3.0x
3.0x
3.0x
3.0x

0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x

1.2x
1.2x
1.2x
1.2x
1.2x
1.2x
1.2x
1.2x

2.1x
2.1x
2.1x
2.1x
2.1x
2.1x
2.1x
2.1x

57%
57%
57%
57%
57%
57%
57%
57%

5.3x
5.3x
5.3x
5.3x
5.3x
5.3x
5.3x
5.3x

$6,959.8
$6,959.8
$6,959.8
$6,959.8
$6,959.8
$6,959.8
$6,959.8
$6,959.8

Caa1/CCC+

$250.0

68.00

18.08%

1708bp

15-Nov-17

15-Nov-13

104.38

$36

nm

nm

nm

nm

na

na

na

Ba2/BBB2/B-

$570.0
$455.0

99.94
83.50

6.27%
15.04%

531bp
1412bp

na
1-Jul-17

na
1-Jul-14

na
105.19

$204
$204

4.8x
4.8x

2.8x
2.8x

4.3x
4.3x

2.2x
2.2x

na
na

na
na

na
na

Ba2/BB
Ba2/BB

$173.7
$250.0

103.38
110.25

5.12%
4.60%

495bp
406bp

1-Mar-13
1-Aug-15

1-Mar-13
1-Aug-15

102.21
103.50

$343
$343

2.9x
2.9x

0.7x
0.7x

2.6x
2.6x

8.1x
8.1x

32%
32%

8.8x
8.8x

$2,118.3
$2,118.3

B1/BB+

$75.0

101.00

5.43%

527bp

1-Feb-13

1-Feb-13

100.00

$199

1.7x

1.3x

1.1x

8.6x

12%

14.2x

$2,600.0

Baa3/BB+
Ba3/B+
Ba3/B+

$575.0
$600.0
$600.0

99.38
105.25
105.75

3.17%
5.64%
6.09%

233bp
478bp
478bp

na
15-Mar-17
15-Mar-19

na
15-Mar-15
15-Mar-16

na
103.44
103.56

$573
$573
$573

3.3x
3.3x
3.3x

1.0x
1.0x
1.0x

2.3x
2.3x
2.3x

3.5x
3.5x
3.5x

57%
57%
57%

5.7x
5.7x
5.7x

$1,949.9
$1,949.9
$1,949.9

B3/B+

$625.0

108.00

7.69%

699bp

1-Jun-16

1-Jun-14

105.00

$124

5.1x

0.0x

4.5x

2.4x

85%

6.0x

$185.1

Recent Quotes
Bid
YTW Spread

YTW Date

Next Call Data


Date
Price

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Aerospace/Defense Yilma Abebe (1-212) 270-3265
Coupon

Desc.

Recom.

L-3 Communications (LLL)


6.375%
Sr Sub Nts
Hold
ManTech International (MANT)
7.250%
Sr Nts
NR
Moog (MOG)
6.250%
Sr Sub Nts
NR
7.250%
Sr Sub Nts
NR
Spirit Aerosystems (SPR)
L + 200
Term Loan B
NR
L + 300
Term Loan B
NR
7.500%
Sr Nts
NR
6.750%
Guar Nts
NR
1
Transdigm (TDG)
L + 300
Term Loan
NR
7.750%
Sr Sub Nts
Hold
Triumph Group (TGI)
8.000%
Sr Sub Nts
NR
8.625%
Sr Nts
NR
1
Wyle Services (WYLE)
L + 400
Term Loan B
NR
10.500%
Sr Sub Nts
NR

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

Amount
Outst.
($ mn)

15-Oct-15

Ba1/BB+

$500.0

102.38

3.65%

351bp

15-Oct-12

15-Oct-12

15-Apr-18

Ba2/BB+

$200.0

106.25

5.49%

481bp

15-Apr-16

15-Jan-15
15-Jun-18

Ba3/B+
Ba3/B+

$187.0
$191.6

101.00
106.50

4.86%
4.51%

470bp
432bp

$591.3
$437.4
$300.0
$300.0

99.69
99.75
107.75
107.63

2.44%
3.78%
4.47%
5.28%

30-Sep-13 Ba1/BBB30-Sep-16 Ba1/BBB1-Oct-17 Ba3/BB15-Dec-20 Ba3/BB-

Debt/
EBITDA

Sr. Sec./
EBITDA

Net Debt./
EBITDA

EBITDA/
Int. Exp

Total Debt/
TEV

TEV/
LTM EBITDA

Equity
Mkt
Cap

101.06

$2,191

1.9x

0.0x

1.6x

8.2x

39%

5.5x

$6,872.3

15-Apr-14

103.63

$262

0.8x

0.0x

0.5x

16.9x

15%

5.1x

$1,204.1

15-Jan-13
15-Jun-13

15-Jan-13
15-Jun-13

100.00
103.63

$313
$313

2.3x
2.3x

1.1x
1.1x

2.0x
2.0x

8.9x
8.9x

29%
29%

7.9x
7.9x

$1,863.0
$1,863.0

169bp
277bp
424bp
466bp

na
na
1-Oct-13
15-Dec-15

na
na
1-Oct-13
15-Dec-15

na
na
103.75
103.38

$508
$508
$508
$508

2.4x
2.4x
2.4x
2.4x

1.2x
1.2x
1.2x
1.2x

2.0x
2.0x
2.0x
2.0x

6.6x
6.6x
6.6x
6.6x

25%
25%
25%
25%

9.5x
9.5x
9.5x
9.5x

$3,808.3
$3,808.3
$3,808.3
$3,808.3

YTW Date

Next Call Data


Date
Price

14-Feb-17
15-Dec-18

Ba2/BBB3/B-

$1,550.0
$1,600.0

99.90
107.50

4.02%
5.92%

293bp
531bp

na
15-Dec-15

na
15-Dec-14

na
103.88

$722
$722

5.0x
5.0x

2.8x
2.8x

4.9x
4.9x

3.1x
3.1x

38%
38%

13.1x
13.1x

$5,925.3
$5,925.3

15-Nov-17
15-Jul-18

B1/B+
Ba3/B+

$175.0
$350.0

108.25
111.50

4.97%
4.98%

472bp
464bp

15-Nov-13
15-Jul-14

15-Nov-13
15-Jul-14

104.00
104.31

$534
$534

2.3x
2.3x

1.0x
1.0x

2.2x
2.2x

5.9x
5.9x

29%
29%

7.9x
7.9x

$3,015.5
$3,015.5

26-Mar-17
1-Apr-18

B1/NR
Caa2/B-

$283.4
$175.0

99.00
106.00

4.95%
8.67%

384bp
800bp

na
1-Apr-16

na
1-Apr-14

na
105.25

na
na

na
na

na
na

na
na

na
na

na
na

na
na

na
na

1. Pro forma for recently completed acquisitions.


Note: Loan yields are to maturity; spreads are over libor.
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

LTM
EBITDA

Recent Quotes
Bid
YTW Spread

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Automotive Eric Selle (1-212) 270-9624
Issue Data
Issuer

Desc.

Maturity

Bond and CDS Data


Rating

AUTOMOTIVE OEMs
Chrysler (CHRYGR)
L + 475
Term Loan
5/24/2017
8.00%
Notes
6/15/2019
8.25%
Notes
6/15/2021
Fiat (FIAT)
5.75%
Notes
12/18/2012
6.38%
Notes
4/1/2016
7.38%
Notes
7/9/2018
Ford Motor Co. (F)
7.45%
Notes
7/16/2031
General Motors Corp. (GM)
L + 400
Revolver
10/27/2015
4.75%
Notes
12/1/2013
Jaguar-Land Rover (TTMTIN)
7.75%
Notes
5/15/2018
8.13%
Notes
5/15/2021
Peugot SA (PEUG)
6.00%
Notes
9/19/2033
Renault SA (RNO)
5.63%
Notes
3/22/2017
Automotive OEM Average

Overweight
Neutral
Ba2/BB
B2/B
B2/B
Not Rated
NR/BB
Ba3/BB
Ba3/BB
Overweight
Ba2/BB+
Overweight
NR/BB+
NR
Underweight
B1/B+
B1/B+
Not Rated
Ba1/BB+
Not Rated
Ba1/BB+

FINANCE COMPANIES
Ford Motor Credit Co. (F)
7.00%
Notes
10/1/2013
8.70%
Notes
10/1/2014
12.00%
Notes
5/15/2015
5.63%
Notes
9/15/2015
8.00%
Notes
12/15/2016
8.13%
Notes
1/15/2020
GM Financial (GM)
6.75%
Notes
6/1/2018
RCI Banque (RENAUL)
4.60%
Notes
4/12/2016
PSA Banque (PEUGOT)
4.38%
Notes
4/4/2016
Finance Companies Average
JPMorgan High Yield Index
Split BBB Index
BB Index
B Index
CCC Index
3 - Month LIBOR

Neutral
Neutral
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Not Rated
Ba3/BBNot Rated
Baa2/BBB
Not Rated
Baa1/BBB

Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

Amout
($mn)

Current
Price($) Yield

YTW

OAS

2,886
1,487
1,679

100.9
99.5
99.5

5.2%
8.0%
8.3%

5.0%
7.9%
8.2%

652
644

200
1,000
600

101.5
96.2
96.4

5.7%
6.6%
7.6%

2.1%
7.3%
7.9%

196
622
622

1,794

121.5

6.1%

5.5%

317

5,000
100

88.0
40.8

5.1%
11.6%

18.5%

410
410

101.3
101.8

7.7%
8.0%

7.2%
7.6%

603
586

600

77.5

7.7%

8.1%

518

500

103.2
$94.5

5.4%
7.5%

4.7%
7.7%

3,000
1,000
1,100
1,000
1,500
1,250

106.0
112.0
123.0
105.3
116.0
120.5

6.6%
7.8%
9.8%
5.3%
6.9%
6.7%

500

106.5

500
250

Total Return
5-Yr.
CDS

Next Call Data


Date
Price

NC
6/15/2015
6/15/2016

NC
104
104

848

NC
NC
NC

NC
NC
NC

301

NC

NC

NC

NC

5/15/2014
5/15/2016

106
104

524

NC

NC

336
510

378
475

NC

NC

2.1%
3.2%
3.7%
3.7%
4.2%
4.8%

187
282
326
315
342
332

231

NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC

6.3%

5.5%

437

99.5

4.6%

4.7%

410

99.8
$109.8

4.4%
6.5%

4.4%
4.0%
7.5%
5.2%
5.6%
7.6%
12.4%
0.5%

381
334
659
402
456
679
1,161

MTD

YTD

Credit Fundamentals (LTM 12/31/11)


EBITDA EBITDA Interest EBITDA-Capex Total
Net
TEV/
($ mn) Margin Coverage
Int. Exp. Leverage Leverage EBITDA

$4,754
-0.5%
-0.9%

8.6%

3.8x

1.4x

2.6x

0.6x

Private

11.4%
12.1%
Private

-0.8%

2.5%

$9,378

73.3%

11.5x

6.2x

1.4x

-1.1x

3.8x

$13,163

8.8%

24.4x

11.3x

0.4x

-0.8x

2.1x

$9,098

30.2%

13.2x

6.3x

1.5x

-0.4x

3.0x

325

378
304

-0.2%
-0.7%

9.3%
10.3%

-0.6%

9.1%

NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC

-0.3%
-0.4%
0.3%
-0.8%
0.3%
0.6%

1.9%
2.8%
3.5%
3.2%
4.2%
4.9%

NC

NC

0.2%

6.6%

NC

NC

NC

NC
0.0%
-0.4%
0.2%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.9%

3.9%
4.8%
4.5%
2.9%
4.8%
10.2%

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Automotive Eric Selle (1-212) 270-9624
Issue Data
Issuer

Desc.

Maturity

AUTOMOTIVE SUPPLIERS
Affinia Group, Inc (AFFGRP)
10.75%
Notes
8/15/2016
American Axle & Manufacturing, Inc. (AXL)
9.25%
Notes
1/15/2017
5.25%
Notes
2/11/2014
7.88%
Notes
3/1/2017
BorgWarner, Inc. (BWA)
7.13%
Notes
2/15/2029
8.00%
Notes
10/1/2019
Cooper Standard Automotive, Inc. (COSH)
8.50%
Notes
5/1/2018
Dana Corp. (DAN)
6.50%
Notes
2/15/2019
6.75%
Notes
2/15/2021
4.00%
Notes
Perpetual
Delphi, Inc. (DPH)
5.88%
Notes
5/15/2019
6.13%
Notes
5/15/2021
Exide Technologies (XIDE)
8.63%
Notes
2/1/2018
Federal Mogul (FDML)
L + 193.75
Term Loan
12/27/2014
L + 193.75
Term Loan
12/27/2015
Intl Automotive Components Group (IACCGA)
9.13%
Notes
6/1/2018
Johnson Controls, Inc. (JCI)
5.50%
Notes
1/15/2016
6.00%
Notes
1/15/2036
Lear Corp. (LEA)
7.88%
Notes
3/15/2018
8.13%
Notes
3/15/2020
Tenneco Automotive, Inc. (TEN)
L + 450
Term Loan
6/3/2016
7.750%
Notes
8/15/2018
6.875%
Notes
12/15/2020
Tower International (TOWR)
10.63%
Notes
9/1/2017
TRW Automotive Holdings Corp. (TRW)
7.00%
Notes
3/15/2014
7.25%
Notes
3/15/2017
12/1/2017
Notes
8.88%
Visteon Corp. (VC)
6.75%
Notes
4/15/2019
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

Bond and CDS Data


Rating
Underweight
Not Rated
B1/B+
Neutral
Ba1/BB+
B2/B
B2/B
Overweight
Baa2/BBB+
Baa2/BBB+
Neutral
B2/BBOverweight
B2/BB
B2/BB
NA
Not Rated
Ba2/BB+
Ba2/BB+
Neutral
B2/B
Underweight
Ba3/B+
Ba3/B+
Not Rated
Caa1/B
Underweight
Baa1/BBB+
Baa1/BBB+
Neutral
Ba2/BB
Ba2/BB
Overweight
Baa3/BBBB1/BBB1/BBOverweight
B1/B+
Overweight
Ba2/BB+
Ba2/BB+
Ba2/BB+
Neutral
B2/B+

Amout
($mn)

Current
Price($) Yield

YTW

OAS

203

108.0

10.0%

8.0%

425

383
250
300

110.8
102.5
103.3

8.4%
5.1%
7.6%

6.3%
3.2%
6.8%

439
299
354

121
134

125.4
122.7

5.7%
6.5%

4.9%
4.4%

262
300

450

108.5

7.8%

6.8%

400
350
522

105.3
105.8

6.2%
6.4%

500
500

104.5
105.3

674

Total Return
5-Yr.
CDS

Next Call Data


Date
Price

MTD

YTD

Credit Fundamentals (LTM 12/31/11)


EBITDA EBITDA Interest EBITDA-Capex Total
Net
TEV/
($ mn) Margin Coverage
Int. Exp. Leverage Leverage EBITDA

8/15/2012

108

0.3%

3.6%

$177

8.3%

2.2x

1.4x

5.0x

4.6x

Private

668

1/15/2014
NC
5/14/2012

105
NC
104

-0.6%
0.2%
0.3%

4.3%
5.2%
6.4%

$378

14.6%

4.5x

2.4x

3.1x

2.7x

4.9x

103

NC
NC

NC
NC

1.5%
1.1%

-1.7%
2.3%

$1,073

15.1%

14.3x

9.0x

1.2x

0.9x

9.4x

516

5/1/2014

104

0.3%

5.0%

$317

11.1%

7.8x

5.1x

1.5x

0.4x

2.8x

5.4%
5.8%

384
385

2/15/2015
2/15/2016

103
103

-0.7%
-0.7%

5.6%
4.7%

$765

10.1%

9.7x

7.2x

1.2x

-0.1x

2.6x

5.6%
5.8%

4.9%
5.2%

333
329

5/15/2014
5/15/2016

104
103

-0.5%
-1.2%

4.3%
3.6%

80.5

10.7%

13.0%

1,200

2/1/2015

104

-3.5%

7.3%

$186

6.0%

2.6x

1.1x

4.2x

3.6x

4.9x

1,877
958

96.0
96.0

2.5%
2.5%

3.9%
3.5%

NC
NC

NC
NC

$640

9.3%

5.0x

2.3x

4.5x

3.0x

5.5x

300

91.0

10.0%

10.7%

963

6/1/2015

105

3.7%

3.4%

800
400

112.9
112.5

4.9%
5.3%

1.9%
5.1%

134
245

NC
NC

NC
NC

0.6%
1.9%

2.5%
0.6%

$2,756

6.6%

16.4x

6.9x

2.2x

2.1x

9.9x

350
350

108.3
110.5

7.3%
7.4%

6.0%
6.3%

415
415

3/15/2014
3/15/2015

104
104

-0.2%
-0.2%

2.2%
2.9%

$946

6.7%

23.8x

15.5x

0.7x

-1.1x

3.6x

225
500

100.3
106.0
106.5

5.0%
7.3%
6.5%

4.9%
6.4%
5.8%

NC
8/15/2014
12/15/2015

NC
104
103

$597

8.3%

5.5x

3.6x

2.1x

1.7x

5.5x

489
385

0.0%
-0.7%

3.6%
5.8%

362

106.5

10.0%

8.7%

760

9/1/2014

105

-2.0%

8.1%

$228

9.5%

3.7x

1.7x

2.6x

2.0x

2.9x

439
491
221

106.5
112.5
110.8

6.6%
6.4%
8.0%

2.9%
4.2%
6.4%

266
335
369

NC
NC
12/1/2013

NC
NC
104

0.0%
0.9%
0.3%

3.0%
6.7%
4.1%

$1,726

10.6%

14.6x

9.8x

0.9x

0.2x

3.4x

500

103.0

6.6%

6.0%

456

4/15/2014

105

0.7%

4.1%

$685

8.5%

13.7x

8.5x

0.9x

-0.2x

3.4x

139

267

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Automotive Eric Selle (1-212) 270-9624
Issue Data

Bond and CDS Data


Rating

Amout
($mn)

United Components (UCII)


8.63%
Notes
2/15/2019
Automotive Suppliers Average
JPMorgan High Yield Index
Split BBB Index
BB Index
B Index
CCC Index
3 - Month LIBOR

Underweight
B3/CCC+

400

HEAVY DUTY
Accuride, Corp. (ACW)
9.50%
Notes
8/1/2018
Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. (CVGI)
7.88%
Notes
4/15/2019
Cummins, Inc. (CMI)
7.13%
Notes
3/1/2028
Meritor, Inc. (MTOR)
8.13%
Notes
9/15/2015
10.63%
Notes
3/15/2018
Navistar, International (NAV)
8.25%
Notes
11/1/2021
3.00%
Notes
10/15/2014
Stoneridge, Inc. (SRI)
9.500%
Notes
10/15/2017
Heavy Duty Average

Neutral
Underweight
B2/B
Underweight
B2/B
Neutral
Baa1/A
Overweight
B3/BB3/BNeutral
B1/BBNA
Overweight
B2/BB-

Issuer

Desc.

Maturity

Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

Current
Price($) Yield

YTW

OAS

102.0
$106.8

8.5%
7.1%

8.2%
6.1%
7.5%
5.2%
5.6%
7.6%
12.4%
0.5%

689
447
659
402
456
679
1,161

310

105.1

9.0%

8.4%

250

100.0

7.9%

250

122.7

252
250

Total Return
5-Yr.
CDS

Next Call Data


Date
Price

MTD

YTD

Credit Fundamentals (LTM 12/31/11)


EBITDA EBITDA Interest EBITDA-Capex Total
Net
TEV/
($ mn) Margin Coverage
Int. Exp. Leverage Leverage EBITDA

2/15/2015

104

-0.4%
0.0%
-0.4%
0.2%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.9%

7.4%
4.2%
4.8%
4.5%
2.9%
4.8%
10.2%

$143
$748

14.5%
10.3%

2.4x
9.9x

2.1x
6.0x

4.9x
2.2x

4.6x
1.5x

Private
4.9x

709

8/1/2014

105

0.3%

11.1%

$75

8.0%

2.2x

0.5x

4.3x

3.5x

8.7x

7.5%

608

4/15/2014

106

-1.2%

5.6%

$61

7.3%

3.1x

2.0x

4.1x

2.6x

7.6x

5.8%

5.0%

281

54

NC

NC

1.5%

3.3%

$2,444

13.5%

55.5x

41.4x

0.3x

-0.3x

8.8x

105.5
108.00

7.7%
9.8%

6.0%
8.6%

549
712

846

NC
3/15/2014

NC
105

-0.5%
0.3%

19.1%
16.9%

$359

7.4%

3.9x

2.7x

2.9x

2.3x

4.2x

900
570

107.3
106.2

7.7%
2.8%

7.1%
0.5%

476

474

11/1/2014
NC

104
NC

-1.3%

3.0%
$683

4.8%

4.8x

1.2x

3.0x

2.4x

6.1x

175

105.0
$107.1

9.0%
8.0%

7.9%
7.1%

679
561

10/15/2014

105

-0.2%
-0.1%

$49
$622

6.4%
11.3%

2.8x
10.8x

1.3x
7.4x

5.4x
3.6x

3.8x
2.7x

9.2x
7.5x

294

458

5.5%
9.0%

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Automotive Eric Selle (1-212) 270-9624
Issue Data
Issuer

Desc.

Maturity

Bond and CDS Data


Rating

TIRES
American Tire Distributors (ATD)
9.75%
Notes
6/1/2017
Cooper Tire & Rubber Co. (CTB)
8.00%
Notes
12/15/2019
7.63%
Notes
3/15/2027
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (GT)
L + 150
Term Loan
4/30/2014
10.50%
Notes
5/15/2016
8.75%
Notes
8/15/2020
8.25%
Notes
8/15/2020
7.00%
Notes
5/15/2022
Titan International (TWI)
7.88%
Notes
10/1/2017
Tire Manufacturer Average
JPMorgan High Yield Index
Split BBB Index
BB Index
B Index
CCC Index
3 - Month LIBOR

Overweight
Not Rated
B2/BNeutral
B2/BBB2/BBNeutral
Ba1/BB
WR/B+
B1/B+
B1/B+
B1/B+
Not Rated
B1/B+

AUTOMOTIVE DEALERS/RETAIL
Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. (ABG)
7.6250%
Notes
3/15/2017
AutoNation, Inc. (AN)
6.75%
Notes
4/15/2018
Penske Auto Group, Inc. (PAG)
7.75%
Notes
12/15/2016
Sonic Automotive, Inc. (SAH)
9.00%
Notes
3/15/2018
5.00%
Notes
10/1/2029

Overweight
Overweight
Caa1/BNeutral
Ba2/BB+
Neutral
B3/BOverweight
B3/B

Automotive Dealer Average


SPEEDWAY OPERATORS
International Speedway Co. (ISCA)
5.40%
Notes
4/15/2014
Speedway Motor Sports (TRK)
8.75%
Notes
6/1/2016
Speedway Operators Average
JPMorgan High Yield Index
Split BBB Index
BB Index
B Index
CCC Index
3 - Month LIBOR
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

Amout
($mn)

Current
Price($) Yield

YTW

OAS

250

108.5

9.0%

7.7%

656

174
117

108.0
96.0

7.4%
7.9%

6.6%
7.9%

522
575

1,200
282
1,000
700

99.5
109.1
107.3
103.8
95.5

2.0%
9.6%
8.2%
8.0%
7.3%

2.2%

200

106.3
$103.8

143

Total Return
5-Yr.
CDS

503
776

Next Call Data


Date
Price

MTD

YTD

Credit Fundamentals (LTM 12/31/11)


EBITDA EBITDA Interest EBITDA-Capex Total
Net
TEV/
($ mn) Margin Coverage
Int. Exp. Leverage Leverage EBITDA

6/1/2013

107

0.5%

7.4%

$156

5.1%

2.3x

1.8x

5.4x

5.3x

Private

NC
NC

NC
NC

-0.7%
-1.3%

6.7%
5.9%

$286

7.3%

7.9x

3.6x

1.7x

0.9x

4.1x

NC
NC
NC
NC
NC

NC
NC
NC
NC
NC

-1.1%
-1.6%
-1.5%

-0.7%
-2.2%
-3.6%

$1,879

8.3%

5.7x

2.5x

2.8x

1.3x

2.7x

10/1/2013

106

-0.2%
-0.8%
-0.4%
0.2%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.9%

4.0%
2.5%
4.8%
4.5%
2.9%
4.8%
10.2%

$178
$625

12.0%
8.2%

7.1x
5.7x

5.6x
3.4x

1.8x
2.9x

1.1x
2.1x

6.7x
4.5x

7.4%
7.5%
7.5%

587
579
560

7.4%
7.4%

6.5%
6.7%
7.5%
5.2%
5.6%
7.6%
12.4%
0.5%

538
574
659
402
456
679
1,161

103.3

7.4%

6.8%

563

5/14/2012

104

-0.4%

4.8%

$137

3.2%

2.5x

2.1x

6.8x

6.7x

13.1x

395

108.5

6.2%

5.1%

401

NC

NC

-0.5%

3.7%

$653

4.7%

6.0x

4.5x

5.4x

5.3x

11.7x

375

104.6

7.4%

6.6%

430

12/15/2012

103

0.2%

3.7%

$347

3.0%

4.6x

2.8x

7.4x

7.3x

14.1x

210
155

109.0
149.5

8.3%
3.3%

7.1%
1.7%

545

3/15/2014
10/1/2014

105
100

0.5%

5.3%
$260

3.3%

3.0x

1.2x

5.6x

5.6x

9.2x

$106.3

7.3%

6.4%

484

0.0%

4.4%

$349

3.6%

4.0x

2.6x

6.3x

6.2x

12.0x

$215

34.1%

14.6x

9.4x

1.5x

1.0x

6.9x

$170
$192

33.6%
33.8%

4.0x
9.3x

2.6x
6.0x

3.4x
2.4x

2.9x
1.9x

7.1x
7.0x

640

Not Rated
WR/BBB

106.1

5.1%

Ba2/BB

275

109.6
$107.9

8.0%
6.5%

6.1%
6.1%
7.5%
5.2%
5.6%
7.6%
12.4%
0.5%

357
357
659
402
456
679
1,161

NC

NC

6/1/2013

104

0.0%
0.0%
-0.4%
0.2%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.9%

2.5%
2.5%
4.8%
4.5%
2.9%
4.8%
10.2%

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Building Susan Berliner (1-212) 270-3085

Coupon

Description

Beazer Homes
6.875%
Sr Nts
8.125%
Sr Nts
12.000%
2nd Lien
9.125%
Sr Nts
9.125%
Sr Nts
Centex Corp.
5.450%
Sr Nts
5.125%
Sr Nts
5.700%
Sr Nts
5.250%
Sr Nts
6.500%
Sr Nts
D.R. Horton
6.875%
Sr Nts
6.125%
Sr Nts
5.625%
Sr Nts
5.250%
Sr Nts
5.625%
Bds
6.500%
Sr Nts
Hovnanian
6.500%
Sr Nts
6.375%
Sr Nts
6.250%
Sr Nts
11.875%
Sr Nts
6.250%
Sr Nts
7.500%
Sr Nts
10.625%
Secured Nts
8.625%
Sr Nts
2.000%
Secured Nts
5.000%
Secured Nts
KB Home
5.750%
Sr Nts
5.875%
Sr Nts
6.250%
Sr Nts
9.100%
Sr Nts
7.250%
Sr Nts

Recom.

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

Buy
Hold
Buy
Hold
Hold

15-Jul-15
15-Jun-16
15-Oct-17
15-Jun-18
15-May-19

Caa3/CCC
Caa3/CCC
B2/B
Caa3/CCC
Caa3/CCC

$172.5
$172.9
$250.0
$300.0
$250.0

89 1/2
89 1/2
108 1/4
83
82

10.78%
11.35%
6.90%
13.24%
13.10%

Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell

15-Aug-12
1-Oct-13
15-May-14
15-Jun-15
1-May-16

B1/BBB1/BBB1/BBB1/BBB1/BB-

$96.4
$119.5
$318.7
$424.5
$480.0

100 1/2
102 1/4
104 1/2
104
107

3.88%
3.53%
3.44%
3.89%
4.58%

378bp
330bp
313bp
338bp
390bp

15-Aug-12
1-Oct-13
15-May-14
15-Jun-15
1-May-16

nm
nm
nm
nm
nm

nm
nm
nm
nm
nm

nm
nm
nm
nm
nm

nm
nm
nm
nm
nm

nm
nm
nm
nm
nm

nm
nm
nm
nm
nm

Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold

1-May-13
15-Jan-14
15-Sep-14
15-Feb-15
15-Jan-16
15-Apr-16

Ba2/BBBa2/BBBa2/BBBa2/BBBa2/BBBa2/BB-

$171.7
$146.0
$138.7
$157.8
$170.1
$372.7

103 7/8
105
105
104 1/4
105 3/8
108 1/2

3.06%
3.16%
3.45%
3.65%
4.06%
4.17%

288bp
289bp
307bp
320bp
343bp
349bp

1-May-13
15-Jan-14
15-Sep-14
15-Feb-15
15-Jan-16
15-Apr-16

$233.3
$233.3
$233.3
$233.3
$233.3
$233.3

19.1%
19.1%
19.1%
19.1%
19.1%
19.1%

17,176
17,176
17,176
17,176
17,176
17,176

4,530
4,530
4,530
4,530
4,530
4,530

1.9x
1.9x
1.9x
1.9x
1.9x
1.9x

6.8x
6.8x
6.8x
6.8x
6.8x
6.8x

Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Sell
Hold
Sell
Sell

15-Jan-14
15-Dec-14
15-Jan-15
15-Oct-15
15-Jan-16
15-May-16
15-Oct-16
15-Jan-17
1-Nov-21
1-Nov-21

Caa3/CC
Caa3/CC
Caa3/CC
Caa3/CC
Caa3/CC
Caa3/CC
B3/CCCCaa3/CC
B3/CC
B3/CC

$36.7
$3.0
$21.4
$70.0
$159.9
$113.3
$797.0
$174.6
$53.2
$141.8

78 3/4
79
77 1/4
79 1/2
60 1/2
60 1/2
89
59 1/4
54 1/2
67 1/4

21.73%
16.41%
16.93%
20.35%
22.34%
22.89%
14.00%
23.21%
9.29%
10.52%

nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm

16.5%
16.5%
16.5%
16.5%
16.5%
16.5%
16.5%
16.5%
16.5%
16.5%

3,876
3,876
3,876
3,876
3,876
3,876
3,876
3,876
3,876
3,876

1,438
1,438
1,438
1,438
1,438
1,438
1,438
1,438
1,438
1,438

nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm

nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm

Hold
Hold
Hold
Buy
Hold

1-Feb-14
15-Jan-15
15-Jun-15
15-Sep-17
15-Jun-18

B2/B
B2/B
B2/B
B2/B
B2/B

$193.7
$170.0
$296.3
$265.0
$300.0

98 1/2
97
97
102 1/2
94 1/2

6.64%
7.09%
7.33%
8.51%
8.41%

$30.0
$30.0
$30.0
$30.0
$30.0

17.4%
17.4%
17.4%
17.4%
17.4%

6,013
6,013
6,013
6,013
6,013

2,203
2,203
2,203
2,203
2,203

0.3x
0.3x
0.3x
0.3x
0.3x

52.9x
52.9x
52.9x
52.9x
52.9x

Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

Size

Recent Quotes
Bid
YTW
Spread

YTW
Date

1,025bp 15-Jul-15
1,064bp 15-Jun-16
677bp 15-Oct-12
1,210bp 15-Jun-18
1,175bp 15-May-19

2,146bp 15-Jan-14
1,599bp 15-Dec-14
1,649bp 15-Jan-15
1,977bp 15-Oct-15
2,171bp 15-Jan-16
2,220bp 15-May-16
1,323bp 15-Oct-16
2,239bp 15-Jan-17
738bp
1-Nov-21
860bp
1-Nov-21
638bp
665bp
681bp
754bp
727bp

1-Feb-14
15-Jan-15
15-Jun-15
15-Sep-17
15-Jun-18

Next Call Data


Date
Price
15-Jul-12

101 1/7

15-Oct-12

106

15-Nov-14 104 4/7

15-Oct-12

108

LTM HB
EBITDA
($mn)

HB Gross
Margin

LTM
Deliveries
(Units)

Backlog
(Units)

HB EBITDA/
Interest
Incurred

Net HB Debt/
LTM HB
EBITDA

nm
nm
nm
nm
nm

20.2%
20.2%
20.2%
20.2%
20.2%

3,683
3,683
3,683
3,683
3,683

1,309
1,309
1,309
1,309
1,309

nm
nm
nm
nm
nm

nm
nm
nm
nm
nm

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Building Susan Berliner (1-212) 270-3085

Coupon

Description

Lennar
5.950%
Sr Nts
5.500%
Sr Nts
5.600%
Sr Nts
6.500%
Sr Guar Nts
12.250%
Sr Nts
6.950%
Sr Nts
MDC Holdings
5.375%
Sr Nts
5.375%
Sr Nts
5.625%
Sr Nts
Meritage
6.250%
Sr Nts
7.731%
Sr Sub Nts
7.150%
Sr Nts
Pulte
6.250%
Sr Nts
5.250%
Sr Nts
5.200%
Sr Nts
7.625%
Sr Nts
7.875%
Sr Nts
6.375%
Sr Nts
6.000%
Sr Nts
Ryland
6.875%
Sr Nts
5.375%
Sr Nts
8.400%
Sr Nts
6.625%
Sr Nts
Standard Pacific
6.250%
Sr Nts
7.000%
Sr Nts
10.750%
Guar Nts
8.375%
Sr Nts
8.375%
Guar Nts

Recom.

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold

1-Mar-13
1-Sep-14
31-May-15
15-Apr-16
1-Jun-17
1-Jun-18

B2/B+
B2/B+
B2/B+
B2/B+
B2/B+
B2/B+

$267.7
$250.0
$500.0
$250.0
$400.0
$250.0

102 1/4
103 1/2
103 3/4
104
127 3/4
105

3.31%
3.94%
4.30%
5.37%
5.89%
5.96%

315bp
357bp
379bp
470bp
499bp
483bp

1-Mar-13
1-Sep-14
31-May-15
15-Apr-16
1-Jun-17
1-Jun-18

$286.6
$286.6
$286.6
$286.6
$286.6
$286.6

23.6%
23.6%
23.6%
23.6%
23.6%
23.6%

11,315
11,315
11,315
11,315
11,315
11,315

2,696
2,696
2,696
2,696
2,696
2,696

1.4x
1.4x
1.4x
1.4x
1.4x
1.4x

12.1x
12.1x
12.1x
12.1x
12.1x
12.1x

Sell
Sell
Sell

15-Dec-14
1-Jul-15
1-Feb-20

Baa3/BB+
Baa3/BB+
Baa3/BB+

$250.0
$250.0
$250.0

106
104 1/3
97 5/8

2.99%
3.93%
6.01%

257bp
340bp
449bp

15-Dec-14
1-Jul-15
1-Feb-20

nm
nm
nm

20.0%
20.0%
20.0%

2,762
2,762
2,762

676
676
676

nm
nm
nm

nm
nm
nm

Buy
Hold
Buy

15-Mar-15
30-Apr-17
15-Apr-20

B1/B+
NR/BB1/B+

$285.0
$125.9
$200.0

101 2/7
96 1/2
102 1/2

4.77%
8.59%
6.74%

460bp
771bp
518bp

15-Mar-13
30-Apr-17
15-Apr-20

$43.2
$43.2
$43.2

17.7%
17.7%
17.7%

3,268
3,268
3,268

1,043
1,043
1,043

1.0x
1.0x
1.0x

14.0x
14.0x
14.0x

Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell

15-Feb-13
15-Jan-14
15-Feb-15
15-Oct-17
15-Jun-32
15-May-33
15-Feb-35

B1/BBB1/BBB1/BBB1/BBB1/BBB1/BBB1/BB-

$62.7
$335.9
$245.2
$150.0
$300.0
$400.0
$300.0

102
102 1/2
102
106
94
81 1/2
79

3.77%
3.75%
4.44%
6.32%
8.50%
8.24%
8.02%

361bp
349bp
398bp
533bp
589bp
557bp
525bp

15-Feb-13
15-Jan-14
15-Feb-15
15-Oct-17
15-Jun-32
15-May-33
15-Feb-35

$249.4
$249.4
$249.4
$249.4
$249.4
$249.4
$249.4

18.6%
18.6%
18.6%
18.6%
18.6%
18.6%
18.6%

15,275
15,275
15,275
15,275
15,275
15,275
15,275

3,924
3,924
3,924
3,924
3,924
3,924
3,924

1.1x
1.1x
1.1x
1.1x
1.1x
1.1x
1.1x

12.4x
12.4x
12.4x
12.4x
12.4x
12.4x
12.4x

Sell
Sell
Sell
Hold

15-Jun-13
15-Jan-15
15-May-17
1-May-20

B1/BBB1/BBB1/BBB1/BB-

$173.9
$126.5
$230.0
$300.0

103 3/4
102
109 1/2
99

3.55%
4.59%
6.19%
6.79%

335bp
415bp
530bp
522bp

15-Jun-13
15-Jan-15
15-May-17
1-May-20

$37.0
$37.0
$37.0
$37.0

20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%

3,627
3,627
3,627
3,627

1,514
1,514
1,514
1,514

0.6x
0.6x
0.6x
0.6x

22.3x
22.3x
22.3x
22.3x

Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold

1-Apr-14
15-Aug-15
15-Sep-16
15-May-18
15-Jan-21

B3/B
B3/B
B3/B
B3/B
B3/B

$5.0
$29.8
$280.0
$575.0
$400.0

100
101
113 1/2
104 1/2
104 1/8

6.25%
6.66%
7.13%
7.44%
7.71%

596bp
611bp
637bp
632bp
598bp

1-Apr-14
15-Aug-15
15-Sep-16
15-May-18
15-Jan-21

$105.9
$105.9
$105.9
$105.9
$105.9

27.5%
27.5%
27.5%
27.5%
27.5%

2,528
2,528
2,528
2,528
2,528

681
681
681
681
681

0.8x
0.8x
0.8x
0.8x
0.8x

12.5x
12.5x
12.5x
12.5x
12.5x

Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

Size

Recent Quotes
Bid
YTW
Spread

YTW
Date

Next Call Data


Date
Price

15-Mar-13
1-Apr-13

100
103

LTM HB
EBITDA
($mn)

HB Gross
Margin

LTM
Deliveries
(Units)

Backlog
(Units)

HB EBITDA/
Interest
Incurred

Net HB Debt/
LTM HB
EBITDA

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Building Susan Berliner (1-212) 270-3085

Coupon

Description

Toll Brothers
6.875%
Sr Nts
5.950%
Sr Nts
4.950%
Sr Nts
5.150%
Sr Nts
8.910%
Sr Guar Nts
6.750%
Sr Nts

Recom.

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold

15-Nov-12
15-Sep-13
15-Mar-14
15-May-15
15-Oct-17
1-Nov-19

Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+

Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

10

Size
$139.8
$104.7
$268.0
$300.0
$400.0
$250.0

Recent Quotes
Bid
YTW
Spread
102
105 2/5
103 4/5
104 5/7
121 2/5
108 3/4

3.44%
2.04%
2.89%
3.52%
4.47%
5.33%

329bp
182bp
261bp
302bp
349bp
387bp

YTW
Date
15-Nov-12
15-Sep-13
15-Mar-14
15-May-15
15-Oct-17
1-Nov-19

Next Call Data


Date
Price

LTM HB
EBITDA
($mn)

HB Gross
Margin

LTM
Deliveries
(Units)

Backlog
(Units)

HB EBITDA/
Interest
Incurred

Net HB Debt/
LTM HB
EBITDA

$132.5
$132.5
$132.5
$132.5
$132.5
$132.5

23.2%
23.2%
23.2%
23.2%
23.2%
23.2%

2,605
2,605
2,605
2,605
2,605
2,605

1,784
1,784
1,784
1,784
1,784
1,784

1.2x
1.2x
1.2x
1.2x
1.2x
1.2x

12.0x
12.0x
12.0x
12.0x
12.0x
12.0x

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Building Materials Yilma Abebe (1-212) 270-3265

Coupon

Description

Recom.

Associated Materials (SIDE)


9.125%
Sr Sec Nts
NR
Gibraltar (ROCK)
8.000%
Sr Sub Nts
Hold
Griffon Corporation (GFF)
7.125%
Sr Nts
NR
HD Supply (HD Supply)
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien) NR
8.125%
11.000%
Sr Sec Nts (2nd Lien) NR
Interline Brands (IBI)
7.000%
Sr Sub Nts
NR
Mueller Water (MWA)
8.750%
Sr Nts
Hold
7.375%
Sr Sub Nts
Buy
USG Corp. (USG)
6.300%
Sr Nts
NR
9.750%
Sr Nts
NR
7.750%
Sr Nts
NR
8.375%
Sr Nts
NR
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

11

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

Amount
Out
($ mn)

Bid

1-Nov-17

Caa1/B

$730.0

89.75

11.69%

1069bp

1-Nov-17

1-Nov-13

106.84

$100

8.3x

8.2x

1.0x

1.3x

1-Dec-15

B2/BB-

$204.0

102.63

5.77%

562bp

1-Dec-12

1-Dec-12

101.33

$61

3.4x

2.9x

0.4x

1-Apr-18

B1/BB-

$550.0

102.25

6.58%

572bp

1-Apr-17

1-Apr-14

105.34

$178

3.9x

2.7x

15-Apr-19
15-Apr-20

B2/NR
Caa1/CCC+

$950.0
$675.0

100.50
102.75

8.02%
10.37%

692bp
923bp

15-Apr-18 15-Apr-15
15-Apr-18 15-Apr-16

106.09
105.50

$508
$508

4.2x
5.5x

15-Nov-18

B2/BB

$300.0

105.25

5.68%

489bp

15-Nov-16 15-Nov-13

105.25

$110

1-Sep-20
1-Jun-17

B2/B+
Caa2/CCC+

$225.0
$420.0

111.25
98.50

6.19%
7.73%

563bp
683bp

1-Sep-15
1-Jun-17

1-Sep-15
nc

104.38
nc

15-Nov-16
1-Aug-14
15-Jan-18
15-Oct-18

Caa2/BB2/BBCaa2/BB2/BB-

$500.0
$300.0
$500.0
$350.0

95.00
110.25
100.00
103.75

7.61%
4.96%
7.75%
7.38%

682bp
461bp
670bp
661bp

15-Nov-16
nc
1-Aug-14
nc
15-Jan-18
nc
15-Oct-16 15-Oct-14

nc
nc
nc
104.19

Recent Quotes
YTW
Spread

YTW
Date

Next Call Date


Date
Price

TEV/
LTM
EBITDA

Equity
Market
Cap

na

na

na

2.2x

36%

10.4x

$430.6

0.0x

3.9x

67%

5.7x

$539.8

4.0x
5.3x

5.5x
5.5x

1.1x
1.1x

na
na

na
na

na
na

2.7x

2.0x

0.0x

4.6x

34%

8.0x

$666.0

$99
$99

6.8x
6.8x

6.4x
6.4x

0.4x
0.4x

1.5x
1.5x

57%
57%

12.1x
12.1x

$555.6
$555.6

$65
$65
$65
$65

nm
nm
nm
nm

nm
nm
nm
nm

nm
nm
nm
nm

nm
nm
nm
nm

68%
68%
68%
68%

nm
nm
nm
nm

$1,801.8
$1,801.8
$1,801.8
$1,801.8

LTM
EBITDA

Debt/
Net Debt/
EBITDA LTM EBITDA

Sr. Sec./ EBITDA


EBITDA Int. Exp.

Total Debt/
TEV

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Cable/Satellite: Domestic HY Cable Michael Pace (1-212) 270-6530

Coupon

Description

AMC Networks
7.750%
Sr Nts
L+300 (1% floor)
TLB
Atlantic Broadband
L+850 (125bp floor)
2nd Lien TL
L+400 (125bp floor)
1st Lien TL
Cablevision Systems
CVC Bonds and CDS
8.625% (HoldCo)
Sr Nts
7.750% (HoldCo)
Sr Nts
8.000% (HoldCo)
Sr Nts
5-YR CDS (HoldCo)
8.500% (OpCo)
Sr Nts
7.625% (OpCo)
Sr Nts
8.625% (OpCo)
Sr Nts
5-YR CDS (OpCo)
CVC Bank Debt
L+300 (Bresnan)
TLB
L+300
TLB
Cequel Communications
8.625%
Sr Nts
L+300 (1% floor)
1st Lien TLB
Charter Communications Holdings
Bonds and CDS
13.5% (CCH II)
Sr Nts
8.125% (CCOH)
Sr Nts
Bank Debt
L+ 325 (OLD EXT)
TLC

Recommendation

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys /
S&P

Hold

15-Jul-21
30-Dec-18

B2/B+
Ba2/BB+

700.0
595.0

111
99 5/8

5.62%
4.07%

Hold

20-Sep-19
20-Mar-19

Caa1/BB2/B+

350.0
660.0

99 3/4
99 1/2

9.80%
5.34%

Buy
Hold
Hold

15-Sep-17
15-Apr-18
15-Apr-20

B1/B+
B1/B+
B1/B+

900.0
750.0
500.0

108
103 3/4
105 3/4

6.83%
6.97%
7.05%

586bp
587bp
549bp

Hold
Hold
Hold

15-Jun-15
15-Jul-18
15-Feb-19

Ba3/BB
Ba3/BB
Ba3/BB

120.5
500.0
526.0

105
110 3/4
113

6.71%
5.56%
6.25%

620bp
440bp
496bp

Recent Quotes
Bid
YTW
STW

Bank/CDS
1
Spread

489bp

Next Call Data


Date
Price

EBITDA/
Total Int.
LQA

Net Debt/
Basic
Sub

Net Debt/
EBITDA
LQA

TEV/
Fwd
2
EBITDA

15-Jul-16
na

103.88
na

4.2x

nm
nm

4.6x
3.1x

10.6x

307bp
855bp
409bp

20-Mar-14
nc

103.00
na

2.3x

$5,300
$3,400

6.8x
4.4x

Private

nc
nc
nc

na
na
na

3.9x

$3,300

4.5x

6.4x

nc
nc
nc

na
na
na

$2,300

3.4x

310bp
342bp

na

na

$1,200

4.6x
1.7x

15-Nov-12
na

106.47
na

2.4x

$3,200
$1,700

5.5x
3.0x

Private

329bp

30-Nov-12
30-Apr-15

106.75
104.06

3.0x

$3,100
$2,900

5.0x
4.5x

6.8x

na

na

$900

1.4x

585bp

490bp
Hold
Hold

14-Dec-17
30-Mar-16

NR/NR
Baa3/BBB-

765.0
2,375.0

99 1/2
98 1/2

4.60%
3.88%

Buy
Hold

15-Nov-17
14-Feb-19

B3/BBa2/BB-

1,825.0
2,200.0

106 3/4
98 1/4

6.48%
4.29%

588bp

Hold
NR

30-Nov-16
30-Apr-20

B2/B
B1/BB-

1,146.4
700.0

113 5/8
110 1/2

2.16%
5.57%

201bp
507bp

Hold

6-Sep-16

B1/B+

2,500.0

99 1/4

3.91%

1. CDS Spread references 5-year CDS.


2. TEV for Cablevision adjusted to include only cable assets; FWD EBITDA is 2012E EBITDA.
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

12

Amount
Outst.

344bp

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Cable/Satellite: Domestic HY Cable Michael Pace (1-212) 270-6530

Coupon
Crown Media
10.500%
L+450
Mediacom
Bonds and CDS
8.500% (Broadband)
9.125% (LLC)
5-YR CDS
Bank Debt
L + 175 (Broadband)
L + 175 (LLC)

Description

Recommendation

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys /
S&P

Sr Nts
TLB

Buy

15-Jul-19
14-Jul-18

B3/BBa2/BB-

300.0
210.0

108 3/4
100

8.40%
4.97%

747bp

Sr Nts
Sr Nts

Hold
Hold

15-Oct-15
15-Aug-19

B3/BB3/B-

500.0
350.0

103
108 1/4

5.16%
7.05%

502bp
670bp

Recent Quotes
Bid
YTW
STW

Bank/CDS
1
Spread

450bp

Next Call Data


Date
Price

EBITDA/
Total Int.
LQA

Net Debt/
Basic
Sub

Net Debt/
EBITDA
LQA

TEV/
Fwd
2
EBITDA

15-Jul-15
na

105.25
na

4.4x

nm
nm

4.0x
1.5x

8.1x

15-Oct-11
15-Aug-14

102.83
104.56

2.9x

$3,300
$3,300

5.7x
5.6x

Private

na
na

na
na

$2,500
$2,600

4.1x
3.5x

570bp
TLD
TLC

Hold
Hold

31-Jan-15
31-Jan-15

1. CDS Spread references 5-year CDS


2. TEV for Cablevision adjusted to include only cable assets; FWD EBITDA is 2012E EBITDA.
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

13

Amount
Outst.

NR/BBBa3/BB-

800.0
650.0

96 1/4
96 1/4

3.39%
3.39%

292bp
292bp

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Cable/Satellite: European Cable (David Caldana (44 207) 777-1737 / Michael Pace (1-212) 270-6530

Issuer

Description Recommendation

Kabel Deutschland (KABEGR)


6.500%
1st Lien
5-YR CDS
Kabel BW (KABEL)
7.500% (USD)
1st Lien
7.500% (EUR)
1st Lien
5-YR CDS
ONO Finance (ONOSM)
8.875% (Nara Cable Funding USD)1st Lien
8.875% (Nara Cable Funding EUR)1st Lien
10.875% (ONO Finance II PLC USD)Sr Nts
11.125% (ONO Finance II PLC EUR)Sr Nts
5-YR CDS
UPC Finance / UPC Holding BV (UPCB)
7.625% (UPCB Finance Ltd) - EUR1st Lien
6.625% (UPCB Finance Ltd) - USD1st Lien
6.375% (UPCB Finance Ltd) - EUR1st Lien
7.250% (UPCB Finance Ltd) - USD1st Lien
6.875% (UPCB Finance Ltd) - USD1st Lien
8.000% (UPC Holding BV) - EUR Sr Nts
9.750% (UPC Holding BV) - EUR Sr Nts
9.875% (UPC Holding BV) - USD Sr Nts
8.375% (UPC Holding BV) - EUR Sr Nts
5-YR CDS
Unitymedia GmbH (UNITY)
8.125% (USD)
Sr Sec Nts
8.125% (EUR)
Sr Sec Nts
9.625% (EUR)
Sr Sub Nts
5-YR CDS
Telenet (TNETBB)
5.300% (EUR)
1st Lien
6.375% (EUR)
1st Lien
6.625% (EUR)
1st Lien
Virgin Media (VMED)
7.000% (GBP)
1st Lien
6.500% (USD)
1st Lien
5.250% (USD)
1st Lien
9.500% (USD)
Sr Nts
9.500% (EUR)
Sr Nts
8.875% (GBP)
Sr Nts
Sr Nts
8.375% (USD)
5.250% (USD)
Sr Nts
5-YR CDS
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

14

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys /
S&P

Amount
Outst.

Recent Quotes
Bid
YTW
STW

29-Jun-18

Ba2/BB-

500.0

104

5.42%

491bp

Underweight
B1/B+
B1/B+

$500.0
800.0

107
103 1/2

5.84%
6.65%

499bp
598bp

Neutral

EBITDA/
Total Int.
LQA

Net Debt/
Basic
Sub

Net Debt/
EBITDA
LQA

TEV/
Fwd
EBITDA

30-Jun-14

103.25

4.3x

325.0

3.7x

8.3x

15-Mar-15
15-Mar-15

103.75
103.75

4.1x

785.0

4.0x
4.0x

na

1-Dec-13
1-Dec-13
15-Jan-14
15-Jul-14

108.88
108.88
110.88
111.13

3.0x

1,640.0

4.0x
4.0x
4.6x
4.6x

15-Jan-15
1-Jul-15
1-Jul-16
15-Nov-16
15-Jan-17
1-Nov-12
15-Apr-13
15-Apr-14
15-Aug-15

103.81
103.31
103.19
103.63
103.44
102.66
104.88
104.94
104.19

4.0x

2-Dec-12
2-Dec-12
1-Dec-14

108.13
108.13
104.81

2.6x

390bp
1-Dec-18
1-Dec-18
15-Jul-19
15-Jul-19

B1/B
B1/B
Caa1/CCC+
Caa1/CCC+

$1,000.0
1,000.0
$225.0
295.0

88
88
84 1/2
83

11.51%
11.51%
14.38%
15.05%

1,027bp
1,046bp
1,299bp
1,386bp

Overweight

1,900.0

na

27 pts upfront
15-Jan-20
1-Jul-20
1-Jul-20
15-Nov-21
15-Jan-22
1-Nov-16
15-Apr-18
15-Apr-18
15-Aug-20

Ba3/B+
Ba3/B+
Ba3/B+
Ba3/B+
Ba3/B+
B2/BB2/BB2/BB2/B-

500.0
$1,000.0
750.0
$750.0
$750.0
300.0
400.0
$400.0
640.0

103 3/4
101
97 1/4
104 1/2
101 3/4
102 1/2
105
110
101

6.82%
6.42%
6.82%
6.49%
6.58%
6.91%
7.85%
6.79%
8.17%

596bp
528bp
542bp
502bp
508bp
671bp
760bp
649bp
718bp

Overweight

740.0

900.0

4.0x
4.0x
4.0x
4.0x
4.0x
4.8x
4.8x
4.8x
4.8x

na

9 pts upfront
1-Dec-17
1-Dec-17
1-Dec-19

B1/BBB1/BBB3/B-

$845.0 106 3/4


1,430.0
104
665.0 106 3/4

6.02%
6.86%
8.10%

542bp
647bp
727bp

Overweight

Neutral

Next Call Data


Date
Price

475bp
15-Mar-19
15-Mar-19

Underweight

Bank / CDS
Spread

415.0
545.0

3.5x
3.5x
4.6x

na

5 pts upfront
15-Nov-16
15-Nov-20
15-Feb-21

Ba3/NR
Ba3/NR
Ba3/NR

100.0
500.0
300.0

105 2/9
99
99 1/2

3.52%
6.53%
6.70%

333bp
505bp
516bp

15-Nov-13
15-Nov-15
15-Feb-16

102.65
103.19
103.31

4.5x

990.0

3.0x
3.0x
3.0x

na

15-Jan-18
15-Jan-18
15-Jan-21
15-Aug-16
15-Aug-16
15-Oct-19
15-Oct-19
15-Feb-22

Baa3/BBBBaa3/BBBBaa3/BBBBa2/BBBa2/BBBa2/BBBa2/BBBa2/BB-

$875.0
$1,000.0
$500.0
$850.0
$180.0
350.0
$600.0
$500.0

105 3/4
108 1/2
110
112
111
111 1/2
111 3/4
97

5.29%
3.28%
3.88%
3.68%
4.39%
5.27%
4.91%
5.65%

461bp
301bp
214bp
347bp
418bp
501bp
453bp
367bp

15-Jan-14
15-Jan-14
nc
15-Aug-13
15-Aug-13
15-Oct-14
15-Oct-14
nc

103.50
103.25
na
104.75
104.75
104.44
104.19
na

3.6x

580.0

2.0x
2.0x
2.0x
3.1x
3.1x
3.1x
3.1x
3.1x

6.0x

470bp

925.0

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Cable/Satellite: Satellites - FSS/MSS Michael Pace (1-212) 270-6530

Issuer
Eutelsat
Valuation Only
GeoEye
8.625%
9.625%
Inmarsat
7.375%
Intelsat Ltd.
6.5% (SA)
5-YR CDS (SA)
11.25% (Luxemborg)
11.25% (Jackson)
SES Global
Valuation Only
Telesat
12.500%
11.000%
ViaSat
8.875%

Description

Recommendation

Amount
Outst.

Bid

Recent Quotes
YTW

STW

Bank/CDS
1
Spread

Next Call Data


Date
Price

EBITDA/
Total Int.
LTM

Net Debt/
EBITDA
LTM

TEV/
Fwd
EBITDA

na

NR

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

8.5x

2.4x

8.5x

2nd Lien
1st Lien

Buy

1-Oct-16
1-Oct-15

B3/BBa3/BB-

125.0
400.0

103 1/2
109

7.46%
5.65%

688bp
527bp

1-Oct-13
1-Oct-13

104.31
104.81

3.6x

2.1x
1.3x

4.8x

Sr Nts

Hold

1-Dec-17

Ba2/BB+

850.0

106 1/4

5.45%

503bp

1-Dec-13

103.69

9.8x

1.5x

6.0x

Sr Nts

Buy

1-Nov-13

Caa3/CCC+

353.6

103 5/8

4.05%

381bp

nc

na

1.7x

7.9x

Private

335bp
Sr Nts
Sr Nts

Hold
Buy

4-Feb-17
15-Jun-16

Caa3/CCC+
Caa2/CCC+

2,805.0
1,032.9

100 3/4
105 1/8

10.92%
9.72%

1,047bp
901bp

15-Feb-13
nc

105.63
na

na

NR

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

5.8x

3.2x

8.5x

Sr Sub Nts
Sr Nts

NR
NR

1-Nov-17
1-Nov-15

B3/BB3/B-

217.2
692.8

111 1/4
106 5/8

6.99%
6.88%

681bp
670bp

1-May-13
1-May-12

106.25
105.50

3.0x

4.4x
4.0x

Private

Sr Nts

Buy

15-Sep-16

B1/B+

275.0

108 1/2

4.04%

392bp

15-Sep-12

106.66

6.0x

1.7x

12.8x

1. CDS spread references 5-year CDS; Fwd EBITDA is 2012E EBITDA.


Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

15

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys /
S&P

7.4x
4.9x

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Cable/Satellite: Canadian Cable/High Grade Cable Michael Pace (1-212) 270-6530

Issuer

Description

CANADIAN CABLE
Quebecor Media/Videotron
7.750% (QMI)
Sr Nts
6.875% (Videotron)
Sr Nts
6.375% (Videotron)
Sr Nts
9.125% (Videotron)
Sr Nts
Rogers Communications
6.250%
Sr Sec Nts
5.500%
Sr Sec Nts
6.375%
Sr Sec Nts
5-YR CDS
Shaw Communications
Valuation (Canadian bonds only) na
5-YR CDS
HIGH GRADE US CABLE
Comcast
5.700%
6.550%
5-YR CDS
Cox Communications
9.375%
8.375%
5-YR CDS
Time Warner Cable
5.000%
6.750%
5-YR CDS

Sr Nts
Sr Nts

Sr Nts
Sr Nts

Sr Nts
Sr Nts

1. Fwd EBITDA is 2012E EBITDA.


Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

16

EBITDA/
Total Int.
LQA

Net Debt/
Basic
1
Sub

Net Debt/
EBITDA
LQA

TEV/
Fwd
1
EBITDA

4.3x
7.3x

na
C$ 1,000.0

3.6x
1.7x

Private
Private

Recommendation

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys /
S&P

Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold

15-Mar-16
15-Jan-14
15-Dec-15
15-Apr-18

B1/B+
Ba1/BB
Ba1/BB
Ba1/BB

700.0
395.0
175.0
715.0

102 3/4
100
102 3/8
110 1/2

6.94%
6.87%
4.29%
2.91%

627bp
660bp
414bp
273bp

15-Mar-11

103.88

15-Dec-12
15-Apr-13

101.06
104.56

Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold

15-Jun-13
15-Mar-14
1-Mar-14

Baa1/BBB
Baa1/BBB
Baa1/BBB

350.0
350.0
750.0

106 1/5
108 2/9
110 1/8

0.89%
1.14%
0.91%

70bp
86bp
64bp

nc
nc
nc

na
na
na

7.3x

$4,200.0

2.0x

6.5x

Hold
Hold

na

nc

na

6.8x

$1,700.0

2.3x

6.7x

Hold
Hold
Hold

1-Jul-19
1-Jul-39

nc
nc

na
na

6.2x

$1,700.0

2.2x

6.7x

Hold
Hold
Hold

15-Jan-19
1-Mar-39

nc
nc

na
na

7.1x

na

2.2x

Private

Hold
Hold
Hold

1-Feb-20
15-Jun-39

nc
nc

na
na

4.7x

$2,600.0

2.8x

6.1x

Amount
Outst.

Recent Quotes
Bid
YTW
STW

CDS
Spread

Next Call Data


Date
Price

67bp
na

na

na

na

na
157bp

Baa1/BBB+
Baa1/BBB+

700.0
800.0

118 3/5
123 5/9

2.83%
4.96%

145bp
194bp
75bp

Baa2/BBB
Baa2/BBB

600.0
1,250.0

134 3/5
142 1/4

3.56%
5.38%

228bp
238bp
50bp

Baa2/BBB
Baa2/BBB

1,500.0
1,500.0

111
120 1/2

3.39%
5.31%

187bp
229bp
138bp

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Cable/Satellite: Satellites - DBS/Satellite Radio Michael Pace (1-212) 270-6530

Issuer

Description

DBS
DirecTV
4.750%
Sr Nts
7.625%
Sr Nts
5.875%
Sr Nts
5-YR CDS
Echostar DBS (DISH Network)
7.000%
Sr Nts
6.625%
Sr Nts
7.125%
Sr Nts
7.875%
Sr Nts
5-YR CDS
SATELLITE RADIO
Sirius XM Radio
9.750%
7.625%
8.750%
13.000%

1st Lien Nts


Sr Nts
Sr Nts
Sr Nts

1. CDS Spread references 5-year CDS


2. Fwd EBITDA is 2012E EBITDA
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

17

Recommendation

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys /
S&P

Hold
Hold
Hold

1-Oct-14
15-May-16
1-Oct-19

Baa2/BBB
Baa2/BBB
Baa2/BBB

Amount
Outst.

1,000.0
1,500.0
1,000.0

Recent Quotes
Bid
YTW
STW

108 2/5
104 5/9
115 2/5

1.26%
4.98%
3.51%

Bank/CDS
1
Spread

88bp
479bp
207bp

Next Call Data


Date
Price

EBITDA/
Total Int.
LTM

Net Debt/
EBITDA
LTM

TEV/
Fwd
2
EBITDA

nc
15-May-12
nc

na
103.81
na

10.1x

2.4x

6.0x

nc
nc
nc
nc

na
na
na
na

7.6x

1.5x

5.8x

1-Sep-12
1-Nov-14
nc
nc

104.88
103.81
na
na

2.4x

0.0x
3.6x

17.8x

155bp
Hold
Hold
Hold
Buy

1-Oct-13
1-Oct-14
1-Feb-16
1-Sep-19

Ba2/BBBa2/BBBa2/BBBa2/BB-

500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
1,400.0

106 3/4
108 1/2
110 1/4
114 3/4

2.27%
3.01%
4.17%
5.42%

204bp
263bp
353bp
400bp
305bp

Buy
Buy
Hold
Hold

1-Sep-15
1-Nov-18
1-Apr-15
1-Aug-13

Ba2/BBBB2/BB
B2/BB
B2/BB

257.0
700.0
800.0
778.5

107 1/2
108 3/4
113
113

2.53%
5.32%
4.04%
2.68%

242bp
492bp
356bp
247bp

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Chemicals Tarek Hamid (1-212) 834-5468

Issuer

Description Recommendation

COMMODITY CHEMICALS
Celanese (CE)
L+275
Term Loan C
NR
6.625%
Sr Nts
NR
Georgia Gulf (GGC)
9.000% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
NR
Ineos Group Holdings Plc (INEGRP)
L+500
Term Loan C
Buy
9.000%
Sr Sec Nts
Buy
8.375%
Sr Sec Nts
Buy
8.500%
Sr Nts
Buy
7.875%
Sr Nts
Buy
LyondellBasell (LYO)
5.000%
Sr Nts
NR
5.750%
Sr Nts
NR
6.000%
Sr Nts
NR
8.000%
Sr Nts
NR
11.000%
Sr Nts
NR
Nova Chemicals (NCX)
8.375%
Sr Nts
Hold
8.625%
Sr Nts
Hold
Texas Petrochemical (TPCG)
8.250% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien) Sell
Westlake (WLK)
6.625%
Sr Nts
NR
SPECIALTY & FINE CHEMICALS
Ashland (ASH)
L+225
Term Loan A
Hold
L+275
Term Loan B
Hold
9.125%
Sr Nts
Sell
Chemtura Corp. (CHMT)
L+400
Term Loan B
Hold
7.875%
Sr Nts
Sell
Compass Minerals (CMP)
L+275
Term Loan C
Hold
L+150
Term Loan A
Hold
L+200
Term Loan B
Hold
8.000%
Sr Nts
Buy
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

18

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

LTM
Size

31-Oct-16
15-Oct-18

Ba1/BBBBa3/BB-

$1,140.0
$600.0

100 1/3
105 1/2

3.71%
5.24%

15-Jan-17

B1/B+

$500.0

110 1/2

5.13%

16-Dec-14
15-May-15
15-Feb-19
15-Feb-16
15-Feb-16

Ba3/B
Ba3/B
Ba3/B
Caa1/CCC
Caa1/CCC

$732.0
$570.0
$1,000.0
$677.5
1,532.1

15-Apr-19
15-Apr-24
15-Nov-21
1-Nov-17
1-May-18

Ba2/BB+
Ba2/BB+
Ba2/BB+
Ba2/BB+
Ba2/BB+

1-Nov-16
1-Nov-19

Recent Quotes
Bid
YTW
Spread

YTW
Date

Next Call
Date

Price

Current
Yield

Adj. EBITDA
Margin

Adj. EBITDA/
Int. Exp.

Net Debt/
Adj. EBITDA

267bp
446bp

na
15-Oct-16

na
15-Oct-14

na
103 1/3

3.20%
6.28%

$1,362.0
$1,362.0

20.1%
20.1%

6.2x
6.2x

0.5x
1.7x

486bp

15-Jan-14

15-Jan-14

104 1/2

8.14%

$230.3

7.1%

3.5x

1.8x

103 2/3 6.46%


573bp
105
6.39%
608bp
104 3/4 7.35%
629bp
90 1/4 11.72% 1,108bp
84
13.33% 1,290bp

na
15-May-14
15-Feb-18
15-Feb-16
15-Feb-16

na
15-May-13
15-Feb-15
15-Feb-12
15-Feb-12

na
104 1/2
106 2/7
102 5/6
102 5/8

7.72%
8.57%
8.00%
9.42%
9.38%

1,713.5
1,713.5
1,713.5
1,713.5
1,713.5

9.7%
9.7%
9.7%
9.7%
9.7%

2.6x
2.6x
2.6x
2.6x
2.6x

2.0x
2.4x
2.4x
3.6x
3.6x

$2,000.0
$1,000.0
$1,000.0
$618.9
$1,921.6

99
98 1/2
104 1/4
112 1/4
110

5.17%
5.93%
5.42%
1.81%
1.30%

384bp
379bp
350bp
162bp
112bp

15-Apr-19
15-Apr-24
15-Nov-21
1-May-13
1-May-13

15-Jan-19
15-Jan-24
nc
1-May-13
1-May-13

100
100
nc
106
100

5.05%
5.84%
5.76%
7.13%
10.00%

$5,279.0
$5,279.0
$5,279.0
$5,279.0
$5,279.0

10.3%
10.3%
10.3%
10.3%
10.3%

5.2x
5.2x
5.2x
5.2x
5.2x

0.6x
0.6x
0.6x
0.6x
0.6x

Ba2/BB
Ba2/BB

$350.0
$350.0

110 1/2
113 3/4

3.95%
4.46%

371bp
406bp

1-Nov-13
1-Nov-14

1-Nov-13
1-Nov-14

104 1/5
104 1/3

7.58%
7.58%

$1,279.0
$1,279.0

24.4%
24.4%

7.7x
7.7x

0.6x
0.6x

1-Oct-17

B1/NR

$350.0

103 5/8

7.28%

651bp

1-Oct-16

1-Oct-13

106 1/5

7.96%

$130.0

4.7%

3.8x

2.0x

15-Jan-16

Baa3/BBB-

$250.0

101 3/4

5.55%

529bp

15-Jan-14

15-Jan-13

101 1/9

6.51%

$584.0

16.1%

11.5x

nm

23-Aug-16
23-Aug-18
1-Jun-17

Baa3/BB
Baa3/BB
Baa3/BB

$1,500.0
$1,400.0
$650.0

99 3/5
99 8/9
110 1/2

3.31%
4.36%
3.53%

237bp
294bp
333bp

na
na
1-Jun-13

na
na
1-Jun-13

na
na
104 4/7

2.76%
3.75%
8.26%

$1,235.0
$1,235.0
$1,235.0

14.2%
14.2%
14.2%

4.8x
4.8x
4.8x

2.0x
2.0x
2.6x

29-Aug-16
1-Sep-18

Ba1/BB+
B1/BB-

$295.0
$455.0

100 3/8
106 3/4

5.27%
6.09%

430bp
534bp

na
1-Sep-16

na
1-Sep-14

na
104

5.48%
7.38%

$385.0
$385.0

12.7%
12.7%

6.1x
6.1x

0.3x
1.5x

15-Jan-16
24-Dec-12
24-Dec-12
1-Jun-19

Ba1/BBB
Ba1/BBB
Ba1/BBB
Ba2/BB+

$234.0
$350.0
$56.1
$100.0

99 2/3
99 5/7
99 5/7
108

3.71%
2.82%
3.32%
5.74%

285bp
195bp
245bp
542bp

na
na
na
1-Jun-14

na
na
na
1-Jun-14

na
na
na
104

3.23%
1.98%
2.48%
7.41%

$280.0
$280.0
$280.0
$280.0

25.3%
25.3%
25.3%
25.3%

13.3x
13.3x
13.3x
13.3x

0.9x
0.9x
0.9x
1.3x

Adj. EBITDA

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Chemicals Tarek Hamid (1-212) 834-5468

Issuer

Description Recommendation

Maturity

Ferro Corp. (FOE)


7.875%
Sr Nts
Sell
15-Aug-18
Hexion/Borden (HXN)
L+375
Term Loan C
NR
5-May-15
L+375
Term Loan C
NR
5-May-15
L+375
Term Loan C
NR
5-May-15
L+375
Term Loan C
NR
5-May-15
6.625% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
NR
15-Apr-20
8.875% Sr Sec Nts (1.5 Lien)
NR
1-Feb-18
9.000% Sr Sec Nts (2nd Lien) NR
15-Nov-20
8.375%
Debs
NR
15-Apr-16
7.875%
Debs
NR
15-Feb-23
9.200%
Debs
NR
15-Mar-21
Huntsman International LLC (HUN)
L+150
Term Loan B
Hold
19-Apr-14
L+225
Term Loan C
Hold
30-Jun-16
L+250
Term Loan B
Hold
19-Apr-17
L+300
Term Loan B
Hold
19-Apr-17
5.500%
Sr Nts
Hold
30-Jun-16
8.625%
Sr Sub Nts
Sell
15-Mar-20
8.625%
Sr Sub Nts
Sell
15-Mar-21
Momentive Performance Materials (MOMENT)
L+350
Term Loan C
Hold
5-May-15
12.250% Sr Sec Nts (2nd Lien) Buy
15-Jun-14
9.000%
Sr Nts
Buy
15-Jan-21
11.500%
Sr Sub Nts
Buy
1-Dec-16
PolyOne (POL)
L+375
Loan
Buy
20-Dec-17
7.375%
Sr Nts
Hold
15-Sep-20
Solutia Inc. (SOA)
L+275
Term Loan B
Hold
1-Aug-17
8.750%
Sr Nts
Hold
1-Nov-17
7.875%
Sr Nts
Hold
15-Mar-20
AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS
CF Inudstries (CF)
Sr Nts
6.875%
Sr Nts
7.125%

Buy
Buy

Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

19

1-May-18
1-May-20

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

LTM
Size

B1/B+

$250.0

101 3/8

7.49%

Ba3/BBa3/BBa3/BBa3/BBa3/BB3/CCC+
NR/CCC+
Caa2/CCC+
Caa2/CCC+
Caa2/CCC+

$426.5
$178.2
$148.6
$85.6
$450.0
$1,000.0
$440.0
$61.5
$188.4
$74.0

99
99
97 3/4
97 1/2
101 3/4
101 3/4
90 1/4
89 1/4
81
87

Ba1/BB
Ba1/BB
Ba1/BB
Ba1/NR
B1/B+
B2/B
B2/B

$2,180.0
$500.0
$650.0
$345.7
$600.0
$350.0
$530.0

99 5/8
98 2/7
98 2/3
98 2/3
99 3/4
113
113

Ba3/B
B2/CCC
Caa1/CCC
Caa2/CCC

$436.4
$200.0
$635.0
$381.9

Ba1/BBBa3/B+

Recent Quotes
Bid
YTW
Spread

YTW
Date

Next Call
Date

Price

Current
Yield

Adj. EBITDA
Margin

Adj. EBITDA/
Int. Exp.

Net Debt/
Adj. EBITDA

675bp

15-Aug-16

15-Aug-14

104

7.77%

$183.0

8.5%

6.5x

1.6x

4.86%
4.86%
5.30%
5.38%
6.27%
8.42%
10.77%
11.83%
10.90%
11.57%

414bp
413bp
458bp
466bp
517bp
759bp
907bp
1,115bp
883bp
980bp

na
na
na
na
15-Apr-18
1-Feb-17
15-Nov-20
15-Apr-16
15-Feb-23
15-Mar-21

na
na
na
na
15-Apr-15
1-Feb-14
15-Nov-15
nc
nc
nc

na
na
na
na
105
104 4/9
104 1/2
nc
nc
nc

4.35%
4.33%
4.38%
4.40%
6.51%
8.72%
9.97%
9.38%
9.72%
10.57%

$635.0
$635.0
$635.0
$635.0
$635.0
$635.0
$635.0
$635.0
$635.0
$635.0

12.2%
12.2%
12.2%
12.2%
12.2%
12.2%
12.2%
12.2%
12.2%
12.2%

2.4x
2.4x
2.4x
2.4x
2.4x
2.4x
2.4x
2.4x
2.4x
2.4x

1.5x
1.5x
1.5x
1.5x
1.5x
3.1x
4.2x
4.9x
4.9x
4.9x

2.31%
3.65%
3.93%
4.43%
5.57%
5.15%
5.55%

172bp
269bp
280bp
331bp
485bp
468bp
499bp

na
na
na
na
30-Jun-16
15-Mar-15
15-Sep-15

na
na
na
na
nc
15-Mar-15
15-Sep-15

na
na
na
na
nc
104 1/3
104 1/3

2.01%
2.77%
3.01%
3.52%
5.51%
7.63%
7.63%

$1,214.0
$1,214.0
$1,214.0
$1,214.0
$1,214.0
$1,214.0
$1,214.0

10.8%
10.8%
10.8%
10.8%
10.8%
10.8%
10.8%

4.9x
4.9x
4.9x
4.9x
4.9x
4.9x
4.9x

1.6x
1.6x
1.6x
1.6x
2.0x
2.8x
2.8x

95 1/2 5.87%
514bp
105 1/2 8.20%
805bp
84 1/4 11.94% 1,021bp
80 5/8 17.81% 1,701bp

na
15-Dec-12
15-Jan-21
1-Dec-16

na
15-Dec-12
15-Jan-16
1-Dec-12

na
103 1/8
104 1/2
103 5/6

4.24%
11.61%
10.68%
14.26%

$379.0
$379.0
$379.0
$379.0

14.4%
14.4%
14.4%
14.4%

1.5x
1.5x
1.5x
1.5x

2.0x
2.5x
5.7x
6.7x

$300.0
$360.0

100 1/4
105 1/4

5.28%
6.36%

401bp
517bp

na
15-Sep-18

na
15-Sep-15

na
103 2/3

4.99%
7.01%

$278.5
$278.5

9.1%
9.1%

5.4x
5.4x

0.4x
1.8x

Ba1/BB+
B1/BBB1/BB-

$700.0
$389.0
$286.0

99 4/5
113
116 1/4

4.10%
2.86%
3.28%

291bp
262bp
281bp

na
1-Nov-13
15-Mar-15

na
1-Nov-13
15-Mar-15

na
104 3/8
104

3.51%
7.74%
6.77%

$518.0
$518.0
$518.0

24.7%
24.7%
24.7%

5.1x
5.1x
5.1x

1.1x
2.4x
2.4x

Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+

$800.0
$800.0

115
118 1/4

4.05%
4.40%

294bp
283bp

1-May-18
1-May-20

nc
nc

nc
nc

5.98%
6.03%

$2,986.0
$2,986.0

49.0%
49.0%

20.5x
20.5x

0.1x
0.1x

Adj. EBITDA

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Consumer Products Carla Casella, CFA (1-212) 270-6798
Coupon

Description

American Greetings Corp.(AM)


7.375%
Sr Nts
Armored AutoGroup (VIKACQ)
9.250%
Sr Nts
1
Brunswick Corp. (BC)
11.250%
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
9.75%/11.75%
Sr Nts
7.375%
Sr Nts
7.125%
Sr Nts
Central Garden and Pet (CENT)
8.250%
Sr Sub Nts
Easton-Bell Sports (EASTON)
9.750%
Sr Sec Nts
Elizabeth Arden (RDEN)
7.375%
Sr Nts
Hanes Brands (HBI)
FRN
Sr Nts
8.000%
Sr Nts
6.375%
Sr Nts
Jarden Corp. (JAH)
8.000%
Sr Nts
6.125%
Sr Nts
7.500%
Sr Sub Nts
7.500%
Sr Sub Nts
Jones Apparel Group (JNY)
5.125%
Sr Unsub Nts
6.875%
Sr Nts
6.125%
Sr Unsub Nts
Levi Strauss & Company (LEVI)
8.875%
Sr Nts
7.750%
Sr Nts
7.625%
Sr Nts
2
Liz Claiborne (LIZ)
10.500%
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
5.000%
Sr Nts
Phillips-Van Heusen, Inc. (PVH)
7.750%
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
7.375%
Sr Nts

Bid

LTM
EBITDA

LTM EBITDA/
Net Interest

(LTM EBITDA
- Capex)/
Cash Interest

Net Debt/
LTM
TEV/
EBITDA LTM EBITDA

Recommendation

Maturity

Hold

1-Dec-21

Ba2/BB+

$225.0

102 1/8

7.01%

553bp

1-Dec-16

103.69

$198.4

8.3x

5.8x

0.8x

3.8x

NR

1-Nov-18

Caa1/CCC+

$275.0

81 3/4

13.54%

1231bp

1-Nov-14

104.63

$90.6

1.9x

1.7x

6.1x

na

Buy
Hold
Buy
Buy

1-Nov-16
15-Aug-13
1-Sep-23
1-Aug-27

Ba2/B+
B3/B
B3/B
B3/B

$293.8
$73.0
$114.7
$167.9

116
112 1/2
97 3/4
93 3/4

4.01%
2.16%
7.67%
7.83%

377bp
195bp
557bp
550bp

1-Nov-13
Make Whole
nc
Make Whole

105.63
T+50
nc
T+15

$319.6
$319.6
$319.6
$319.6

4.1x
4.1x
4.1x
4.1x

2.9x
2.9x
2.9x
2.9x

0.9x
2.2x
2.2x
2.2x

8.0x
8.0x
8.0x
8.0x

Hold

1-Mar-18

B2/B

$450.0

102 3/8

7.53%

687bp

1-Mar-14

104.13

$109.3

2.9x

1.9x

4.6x

9.2x

Hold

1-Dec-16

B2/B-

$350.0

110 5/8

4.02%

387bp

1-Dec-12

107.31

$98.2

2.3x

1.7x

3.7x

na

NR

15-Mar-21

B1/BB-

$250.0

108 3/4

5.70%

504bp

15-Mar-16

103.69

$125.5

5.8x

4.7x

1.5x

10.2x

Hold
Sell
Sell

15-Dec-14
15-Dec-16
15-Dec-20

B1/BBB1/BBB1/BB-

$293.3
$500.0
$1,000.0

99 1/2
110
101 1/8

4.08%
4.07%
6.16%

339bp
381bp
491bp

14-May-12
15-Dec-13
15-Dec-15

100.00
104.00
103.19

$578.8
$578.8
$578.8

3.7x
3.7x
3.7x

3.1x
3.1x
3.1x

3.5x
3.5x
3.5x

8.1x
8.1x
8.1x

Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold

1-May-16
15-Nov-22
1-May-17
15-Jan-20

Ba3/BBBa3/BBB2/B
B2/B

$300.0
$300.0
$650.0
$275.0

108
104 1/2
109 1/2
108 1/4

3.89%
5.18%
5.33%
5.50%

370bp
418bp
445bp
506bp

1-May-13
15-Nov-15
1-May-12
15-Jan-15

104.00
103.06
103.75
103.75

$790.8
$790.8
$790.8
$790.8

4.4x
4.4x
4.4x
4.4x

3.7x
3.7x
3.7x
3.7x

3.0x
3.0x
3.0x
3.0x

7.5x
7.5x
7.5x
7.5x

Hold
Hold
Hold

15-Nov-14
15-Mar-19
15-Nov-34

Ba3/B+
Ba3/B+
Ba3/B+

$250.0
$300.0
$250.0

101 1/2
97 1/4
76

4.50%
7.39%
8.54%

410bp
608bp
579bp

Make Whole
Make Whole
Make Whole

T+15
T+50
T+20

$283.3
$283.3
$283.3

3.9x
3.9x
3.9x

2.5x
2.5x
2.5x

2.1x
2.1x
2.1x

5.5x
5.5x
5.5x

Hold
Hold
Hold

1-Apr-16
15-May-18
15-May-20

B2/B+
B2/B+
B2/B+

$350.0
300.0
$525.0

103 1/4
101 1/2
105

6.83%
7.32%
6.61%

665bp
683bp
549bp

1-Apr-13
15-May-14
15-May-15

101.48
103.88
103.81

$473.2
$473.2
$473.2

3.5x
3.5x
3.5x

2.7x
2.7x
2.7x

3.6x
3.6x
3.6x

na
na
na

Buy
Buy

15-Apr-19
8-Jul-13

B2/B
Caa1/CCC+

$220.0
81.5

111
97 1/2

7.00%
7.18%

671bp
708bp

15-Apr-14
Make Whole

105.25
T+15

$94.1
$94.1

1.6x
1.6x

7.1x
7.1x

2.4x
3.1x

17.0x
17.0x

Hold
Hold

15-Nov-23
15-May-20

Ba1/BBB
Ba3/BB+

$100.0
$600.0

115 3/4
110

5.86%
4.96%

375bp
445bp

nc
15-May-15

nc
103.69

$804.9
$804.9

6.3x
6.3x

5.0x
5.0x

1.3x
2.1x

11.0x
11.0x

Note: TEV calculations are based on Thursday prices.


1. BC net debt/EBITDA is net of maintenance cash of $500 mn.
2. LIZ leverage levels are shown PF for sale of Mexx of $85 mn.
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

20

Amount
Outstanding
($ mn)

Ratings
Moodys /
S&P

Recent Quotes
YTW
Spread

Next Call Data


Date
Price

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Consumer Products Carla Casella, CFA (1-212) 270-6798
Coupon

Description

Bid

LTM
EBITDA

LTM EBITDA/
Net Interest

(LTM EBITDACapex)/
Cash Interest

Net Debt/
LTM
TEV/
EBITDA LTM EBITDA

Recommendation

Maturity

NR
NR

1-Apr-18
1-Feb-20

Ba3/BBB3/B-

$250.0
$250.0

109 1/4
108 1/4

5.24%
6.39%

496bp
534bp

1-Apr-14
1-Feb-16

104.13
104.06

$211.4
$211.4

2.3x
2.3x

2.3x
2.3x

4.1x
5.4x

9.5x
9.5x

NR
NR

15-Apr-15
15-Dec-17

Caa1/CCC+
Ba3/B

$400.0
200.0

100
101

6.87%
8.60%

670bp
799bp

15-Apr-12
15-Dec-14

101.15
104.44

$191.5
$191.5

3.2x
3.2x

1.7x
1.7x

3.2x
3.2x

6.5x
6.5x

Hold

15-Nov-15

B2/B

$330.0

107 1/4

5.27%

513bp

15-Nov-12

104.88

$266.0

2.8x

2.2x

4.1x

7.6x

Hold
Hold

15-Jan-18
15-Dec-20

B1/BB
B1/BB

$200.0
$200.0

107 1/4
104 1/2

4.88%
5.80%

461bp
454bp

15-Jan-14
15-Dec-15

103.63
103.31

$409.1
$409.1

7.2x
7.2x

6.1x
6.1x

2.2x
2.2x

10.1x
10.1x

Buy
Buy

15-Apr-16
15-Jun-14

Ba3/BBCaa1/CCC+

$295.0
$268.9

108 1/2
98 1/2

7.24%
9.02%

706bp
869bp

15-Apr-12
15-Jun-12

108.16
100.00

$128.4
$128.4

2.1x
2.1x

2.1x
2.1x

3.2x
5.3x

6.9x
6.9x

NR
NR

15-Jun-18
28-Aug-19

Caa3/CCCB3/CCC+

$750.0
$245.0

111 7/8
109 3/4

5.68%
1.59%

535bp
148bp

15-Jun-14
28-Aug-12

104.75
106.00

$460.8
$460.8

2.3x
2.3x

2.2x
2.2x

3.1x
3.7x

7.5x
7.5x

Prestige Brands (PBH)


8.250%
Sr Sec Nts
8.125%
Sr Nts
Quiksilver, Inc. (ZQK)
6.875%
Sr Nts
8.875%
Sr Nts
Revlon, Inc. (REV)
9.750%
Sr Sec Nts
Scotts Miracle Gro (SMG)
7.250%
Sr Nts
6.625%
Sr Nts
Sealy Corporation (ZZ)
10.875%
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
8.250%
Sr Sub Nts
Spectrum Brands (SPB)
9.500%
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
12.000%
Sr Sub Toggle Nts

Note: TEV calculations are based on Thursday prices.


Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

21

Amount
Outstanding
($ mn)

Ratings
Moodys /
S&P

Recent Quotes
YTW
Spread

Next Call Data


Date
Price

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Energy: Exploration and Production Gregg Brody (1-212) 834-5997

Coupon

Desc.

Recom.

Alta Mesa Holdings


9.625%
Sr Nts
NR
Antero Resources
9.375%
Sr Nts
NR
7.250%
Sr Nts
NR
ATP Oil & Gas
11.875% Sr Sec Nts (2nd Lien) NR
Bill Barrett
9.875%
Sr Nts
NR
7.625%
Sr Nts
NR
7.000%
Sr Nts
NR
Berry Petroleum Co.
10.250%
Sr Nts
NR
6.750%
Sr Nts
NR
6.375%
Sr Nts
NR
Breitburn Energy Partner
8.625%
Guar Nts
NR
7.875%
Sr Nts
NR
Carrizo Oil & Gas
8.625%
Sr Nts
NR
Chaparral Energy
8.875%
Sr Nts
Hold
9.875%
Sr Nts
Hold
8.250%
Sr Nts
Hold
Chesapeake Energy
7.625%
Sr Nts
Hold
9.500%
Sr Nts
Hold
6.250%
Sr Nts
Hold
6.500%
Sr Nts
Hold
6.875%
Sr Nts
Hold
7.250%
Sr Nts
Hold
6.775%
Sr Nts
Hold
6.625%
Sr Nts
Hold
6.875%
Sr Nts
Hold
6.125%
Sr Nts
Hold
Cimarex Energy
7.125%
Sr Nts
NR
5.875%
Sr Nts
Hold
Clayton Williams
7.750%
Sr Nts
NR
Comstock Resources
8.375%
Sr Nts
NR
7.750%
Sr Nts
NR

Current
Yield

MTD
Total
Return

YTD
Total
Return

%
Natural
Gas

104 13/16

9.72%

-1.36%

4.74%

1-Dec-13
1-Aug-14

104 11/16
105 7/16

8.65%
7.11%

0.39%
-0.73%

2.76%
1.45%

5,021
5,021

78.3%
78.3%

2611bp

1-May-13

111 7/8

16.84%

-2.70%

11.91%

759

$250.0 110 1/4 5.16%


$400.0 99 1/2 7.71%
$400.0 94 1/4 7.81%

495bp
628bp
576bp

15-Jul-13
1-Oct-15
15-Oct-17

104 15/16
103 13/16
103 1/2

8.96%
7.66%
7.43%

0.52%
-1.72%
-2.08%

2.63%
-2.68%
-5.09%

B2/B+
B2/B+
B2/B+

$355.3
115
2.92%
$300.0 105 1/4 5.77%
$600.0 102 1/4 6.01%

260bp
455bp
447bp

1-Nov-15
15-Mar-17

103 3/8
103 3/16

8.91%
6.41%
6.23%

-0.13%
-0.25%
-0.28%

15-Oct-20
15-Apr-22

B3/B
B3/B

$305.0
$250.0

106
101

7.44%
7.70%

623bp
620bp

15-Oct-15
15-Jan-17

104 5/16
103 15/16

8.14%
7.80%

15-Oct-18

B3/B

$600.0

105

7.50%

651bp

15-Oct-14

104 5/16

1-Feb-17
1-Oct-20
1-Sep-21

Caa1/BCaa1/BCaa1/B-

$325.0
104
7.23%
$300.0 110 1/2 7.64%
$400.0 105 3/4 7.23%

696bp
706bp
581bp

1-Feb-13
1-Oct-15
1-Sep-16

102 23/24
104 15/16
104 1/8

15-Jul-13
15-Feb-15
15-Jan-17
15-Aug-17
15-Aug-18
15-Dec-18
15-Mar-19
15-Aug-20
15-Nov-20
15-Feb-21

Ba3/BB+
Ba3/BB+
Ba3/BB+
Ba3/BB+
Ba3/BB+
Ba3/BB+
Ba3/BB+
Ba3/BB+
Ba3/BB+
Ba3/BB+

Maturity

Amount
Outst.

Recent Quotes
Bid
YTW
Spread

15-Oct-18

B3/B

$300.0

99

9.84%

862bp

15-Oct-14

1-Dec-17
1-Aug-19

B3/B+
B3/B+

$525.0 108 3/8 6.62%


$400.0
102
6.79%

637bp
585bp

1-May-15 Caa2/CCC- $1,500.0 70 1/2 26.61%


15-Jul-16
1-Oct-19
15-Oct-22

B1/BBB1/BBB1/BB-

1-Jun-14
1-Nov-20
15-Sep-22

2.89%
4.20%
5.70%
5.41%
6.34%
6.18%
6.96%
6.62%
6.80%
6.50%

269bp
374bp
507bp
446bp
559bp
493bp
564bp
498bp
510bp
475bp

1-May-17 Ba1/BB+
1-May-22 Ba1/BB+

$350.0
103
6.03%
$750.0 101 1/2 5.64%

1-Apr-19

Caa1/B

$350.0

15-Oct-17
1-Apr-19

B2/B
B2/B

$300.0
$300.0

Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

22

2011
Reserves
Bcfe

Ratings
Moody's
S&P

$464.1 105 3/4


$1,264.7 114
$344.2 102 6/25
$660.4
105
$473.7
102
$668.6 105 3/4
$1,300.0
99
$1,300.0 100
$500.0 100 1/2
$1,000.0 97 1/2

Next Call Date


Date
Price

FCF

Balance
Sheet
Liquidity

Debt/
EBITDAX

Debt/PD
(mcfe)

Debt/
EV

$340.8
$340.8

-$321.2
-$321.2

$851.2
$851.2

2.8x
2.8x

$1.13
$1.13

na
na

40.6%

$514.9

-$249.2

$85.8

3.9x

$14.11

74.6%

1,365
1,365
1,365

91.6%
91.6%
91.6%

$523.3
$523.3
$523.3

-$463.4
-$463.4
-$463.4

$1,080.3
$1,080.3
$1,080.3

2.0x
2.0x
2.0x

$1.50
$1.50
$1.50

53.5%
53.5%
53.5%

4.16%
6.01%
2.91%

1,776
1,776
1,776

32.8%
32.8%
32.8%

$557.6
$557.6
$557.6

-$64.1
-$64.1
-$64.1

$645.6
$645.6
$645.6

2.6x
2.6x
2.6x

$1.51
$1.51
$1.51

36.6%
36.6%
36.6%

0.03%
-0.71%

3.56%
3.91%

907
907

65.1%
65.1%

$225.0
$225.0

$108.8
$108.8

$723.8
$723.8

2.9x
2.9x

$0.84
$0.84

37.9%
37.9%

8.21%

0.03%

6.24%

624

77.7%

$172.1

-$414.5

$410.6

4.3x

$2.64

44.7%

8.53%
8.94%
7.80%

-0.19%
-0.60%
-0.44%

2.79%
4.77%
6.55%

896
896
896

37.4%
37.4%
37.4%

$313.2
$313.2
$313.2

-$109.7
-$109.7
-$109.7

$406.7
$406.7
$406.7

3.3x
3.3x
3.3x

$1.75
$1.75
$1.75

na
na
na

7.21%
8.33%
6.11%
6.19%
6.74%
6.86%
6.84%
6.63%
6.84%
6.28%

0.47%
-0.16%
-0.29%
-1.20%
-0.74%
-0.70%
-0.02%
-1.49%
-2.38%
-1.30%

1.96%
1.83%
3.63%
0.30%
-2.80%
-2.45%
1.40%
-4.91%
-4.23%
-3.36%

18,789
18,789
18,789
18,789
18,789
18,789
18,789
18,789
18,789
18,789

82.6%
82.6%
82.6%
82.6%
82.6%
82.6%
82.6%
82.6%
82.6%
82.6%

$5,219
$5,219
$5,219
$5,219
$5,219
$5,219
$5,219
$5,219
$5,219
$5,219

-$3,794
-$3,794
-$3,794
-$3,794
-$3,794
-$3,794
-$3,794
-$3,794
-$3,794
-$3,794

$6,996.6
$6,996.6
$6,996.6
$6,996.6
$6,996.6
$6,996.6
$6,996.6
$6,996.6
$6,996.6
$6,996.6

2.0x
2.0x
2.0x
2.0x
2.0x
2.0x
2.0x
2.0x
2.0x
2.0x

$1.06
$1.06
$1.06
$1.06
$1.06
$1.06
$1.06
$1.06
$1.06
$1.06

43.5%
43.5%
43.5%
43.5%
43.5%
43.5%
43.5%
43.5%
43.5%
43.5%

LTM
EBITDAX

15-Aug-13

105 5/32

554bp
407bp

1-May-12
1-May-17

103 9/16
102 15/16

6.92%
5.79%

0.22%
-0.31%

0.71%
1.68%

2,045
2,045

59.5%
59.5%

$1,255.5
$1,255.5

-$375.6
-$375.6

$1,078.7
$1,078.7

0.6x
0.6x

$0.45
$0.45

11.6%
11.6%

99 1/4 7.89%

657bp

1-Apr-15

103 7/8

7.81%

0.01%

6.07%

386

23.0%

$317.6

-$119.4

$308.4

1.7x

$2.25

36.4%

97
9.08%
92 3/4 9.18%

809bp
786bp

15-Oct-13
1-Apr-15

104 3/16
103 7/8

8.63%
8.36%

0.03%
0.01%

2.64%
-0.08%

1,248
1,248

85.4%
85.4%

$319.3
$319.3

-$275.7
-$275.7

$321.8
$321.8

3.2x
3.2x

$1.24
$1.24

60.7%
60.7%

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Energy: Exploration and Production Gregg Brody (1-212) 834-5997

Coupon

Desc.

Recom.

Maturity

Ratings
Moody's
S&P

Concho Resources
8.625%
Sr Nts
Hold
1-Oct-17 B1/BB+
7.000%
Sr Nts
Hold 15-Jan-21 B1/BB+
6.500%
Sr Nts
Hold 15-Jan-22 B1/BB+
5.500%
Sr Nts
Hold
1-Oct-22 B1/BB+
Continental Resources
8.250%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Oct-19 Ba2/BB+
7.375%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Oct-20 Ba2/BB+
7.125%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Apr-21 Ba2/BB+
5.000%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Sep-22 Ba2/BB+
Connacher Oil and Gas
1-Aug-19 Caa2/BB8.500% Sr Sec Nts (2nd Lien) NR
Delta Petroleum
7.000%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Apr-15
NR/D
Denbury Resources
9.750% Sr Sub Nts Hold
1-Mar-16 B1/BB
9.500% Sr Sub Nts Hold 1-May-16 B1/BB
8.250% Sr Sub Nts Hold 15-Feb-20 B1/BB
6.375% Sr Sub Nts Hold 15-Aug-21 B1/BB
Eagle Rock Energy
8.375%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Jun-19
B3/BEnergy Partners
8.250%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Feb-18 Caa1/BEV Energy Partners
8.000%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Apr-19 B3/BEnergy XXI Gulf Coast
9.250%
Guar Nts
NR
15-Dec-17 Caa1/B
7.750%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Jun-19 Caa1/B
Exco Resources
7.500%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Sep-18 B3/BForest Oil
8.500%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Feb-14
B1/B
7.250%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Jun-19
B1/B
Goodrich Petroleum Company
8.875%
Sr Nts
Buy 15-Mar-19 Caa1/CCC+
Harvest Operations
6.875%
Guar Nts
NR
1-Oct-17 Ba1/BBHilcorp Energy LP
Sr Nts
8.000%
Sell 15-Feb-20 B1/BB7.625%
Sr Nts
Sell
15-Apr-21 B1/BBKodiak Oil & Gas Corp.
Sr Nts
NR
1-Dec-19 Caa1/B8.125%
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

23

Amount
Outst.

Recent Quotes
Bid
YTW
Spread

$300.0
109
$600.0
106
$600.0 103 3/4
$600.0
97

Next Call Date


Date
Price

Current
Yield

MTD
Total
Return

YTD
Total
Return

2011
Reserves
Bcfe

%
Natural
Gas

LTM
EBITDAX

FCF

Balance
Sheet
Liquidity

Debt/
EBITDAX

Debt/PD
(mcfe)

Debt/
EV

5.03%
5.92%
5.89%
5.89%

480bp
488bp
438bp
384bp

1-Oct-13
15-Jan-16
15-Jan-17
1-Oct-17

104 5/16
103 1/2
103 1/4
102 3/4

7.91%
6.60%
6.27%
5.67%

-0.19%
-0.93%
-1.43%
-1.33%

1.95%
0.53%
0.99%
-2.48%

2,319
2,319
2,319
2,319

38.3%
38.3%
38.3%
38.3%

$1,275.2
$1,275.2
$1,275.2
$1,275.2

-$233.1
-$233.1
-$233.1
-$233.1

$1,720.8
$1,720.8
$1,720.8
$1,720.8

1.8x
1.8x
1.8x
1.8x

$1.61
$1.61
$1.61
$1.61

18.4%
18.4%
18.4%
18.4%

$300.0 111 3/4 4.73%


$200.0
111
4.87%
$400.0 110 3/4 4.93%
$800.0
100
5.00%

435bp
430bp
426bp
346bp

1-Oct-14
1-Oct-15
1-Apr-16
15-Mar-17

104 1/8
103 11/16
103 9/16
102 1/2

7.38%
6.64%
6.43%
5.00%

0.25%
0.22%
-0.01%
-0.33%

3.62%
3.67%
3.85%
0.53%

3,051
3,051
3,051
3,051

35.9%
35.9%
35.9%
35.9%

$1,304.0
$1,304.0
$1,304.0
$1,304.0

-$976.1
-$976.1
-$976.1
-$976.1

$1,230.7
$1,230.7
$1,230.7
$1,230.7

1.3x
1.3x
1.3x
1.3x

$1.38
$1.38
$1.38
$1.38

10.5%
10.5%
10.5%
10.5%

$550.0

100

8.49%

756bp

1-Aug-15

104 1/4

8.50%

0.28%

12.63%

$129.9

-$125.6

$214.8

7.4x

$150.0

66

23.60%

0bp

1-Apr-13

100

10.61%

-2.94%

-24.85%

123

91.4%

$27

-$61

$99.1

10.3x

$2.49

148.9%

$426.4 109 1/2 4.10%


$225.0 109 1/2 4.56%
$996.3 110 1/4 5.64%
$400.0
105
5.53%

394bp
437bp
519bp
413bp

1-Mar-13
1-May-13
15-Feb-15
15-Aug-16

104 7/8
104 3/4
104 1/8
103 3/16

8.90%
8.68%
7.48%
6.07%

0.07%
-0.16%
-1.09%
-0.50%

1.75%
1.71%
0.71%
2.14%

2,694
2,694
2,694
2,694

23.1%
23.1%
23.1%
23.1%

$869.3
$869.3
$869.3
$869.3

-$782
-$782.4
-$782
-$782

$1,546.7
$1,546.7
$1,546.7
$1,546.7

2.7x
2.7x
2.7x
2.7x

$1.56
$1.56
$1.56
$1.56

24.8%
24.8%
24.8%
24.8%

$300.0 103 1/4 7.59%

669bp

1-Jun-15

104 3/16

8.11%

0.50%

5.56%

371

63.0%

$202.1

$21.0

$185.8

3.9x

$2.76

39.1%

$210.0

7.99%

715bp

15-Feb-15

104 1/8

8.17%

-0.10%

7.92%

$500.0 101 1/2 7.63%

676bp

15-Apr-15

104

7.88%

-0.69%

1.93%

1,144

70.7%

$243.3

$138.4

$609.8

3.0x

$0.92

21.1%

$750.0 107 3/4 7.26%


$250.0 101 3/4 7.33%

645bp
642bp

15-Dec-14
15-Jun-15

104 5/8
103 7/8

8.58%
7.62%

-0.17%
-0.94%

1.69%
1.88%

700
700

33.8%
33.8%

$744.5
$744.5

$141.2
$141.2

$569.4
$569.4

1.4x
1.4x

$2.11
$2.11

26.7%
26.7%

$750.0

10.56%

936bp

15-Sep-14

103 3/4

8.72%

-3.08%

-6.61%

1,330

97.1%

$604.9

-$458.7

$798.2

2.8x

$1.67

60.7%

$600.0
107
4.47%
$1,000.0 96 7/8 7.83%

420bp
646bp

15-Jun-12

103 5/8

7.94%
7.48%

0.26%
-0.63%

0.34%
-3.02%

2,045
2,045

59.5%
59.5%

$550.9
$550.9

-$677.9
-$677.9

$1,146.0
$1,146.0

3.1x
3.1x

$1.02
$1.02

56.3%
56.3%

15-Mar-15

104 7/16

9.15%

0.30%

-0.50%

501

92.5%

$169.1

-$243.9

$175.8

3.3x

$2.67

45.4%

6.55%

-0.73%

3.26%

101

86

75.6%

$275.0

97

9.47%

816bp

$500.0

105

5.79%

482bp

$300.0 107 1/2 6.37%


$350.0
107
6.29%

592bp
531bp

15-Feb-15
1-Oct-15

104
103 13/16

7.44%
7.13%

-0.21%
-0.67%

2.49%
4.12%

2,010
2,010

54.8%
54.8%

$890.4
$890.4

$272.5
$272.5

$1,429.9
$1,429.9

0.7x
0.7x

$0.58
$0.58

na
na

$650.0 104 1/2 7.14%

612bp

1-Dec-15

104 1/16

7.78%

-0.90%

3.02%

239

10.7%

$89.7

-$254.8

$299.5

7.2x

$7.36

25.8%

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Energy: Exploration and Production Gregg Brody (1-212) 834-5997

Coupon

Desc.

Recom.

Maturity

Ratings
Moody's
S&P

Laredo Petroleum
9.500%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Feb-19 Caa2/BLinn Energy
11.750%
Sr Nts
NR
15-May-17 B2/B
9.875%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Jul-18
B2/B
6.500%
Sr Nts
NR
15-May-19 B2/B
6.250%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Nov-19
B2/B
8.625%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Apr-20
B2/B
7.750%
Guar Nts
NR
1-Feb-21
B2/B
McMoRan Exploration
11.875%
Sr Nts
Hold 15-Nov-14 Caa1/BMEG Energy Corp.
6.500%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Mar-21 B3/BB
MIE Holdings Corp.
9.750%
Sr Nts
NR
12-May-16 NR/B+
Newfield Exploration
6.625% Sr Sub Nts Hold 1-Sep-14 Ba2/BB+
6.625% Sr Sub Nts Hold 15-Apr-16 Ba2/BB+
7.125% Sr Sub Nts Hold 15-May-18 Ba2/BB+
6.875% Sr Sub Nts Hold
1-Feb-20 Ba2/BB+
5.750%
Sr Nts
Buy 30-Jan-22 Ba1/BBBNFR Energy
9.750%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Feb-17 Caa1/B9.750%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Feb-17 Caa1/BOasis Petroleum
7.250%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Feb-19 Caa1/B
6.500%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Nov-21 Caa1/B
OGX Austria GmbH
8.500%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Jun-18
B1/B
8.375%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Apr-22
B1/B
Penn Virginia Corp.
10.375%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Jun-16
B3/B
7.250%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Apr-19
B3/B
Petrobakken Energy
8.625%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Feb-20 Caa1/CCC+
Petroleum Development Corporation
12.000%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Feb-18 B3/BPetroQuest Energy Inc.
10.000%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Sep-17 Caa1/B
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

24

Current
Yield

MTD
Total
Return

YTD
Total
Return

2011
Reserves
Bcfe

%
Natural
Gas

FCF

Balance
Sheet
Liquidity

Debt/
EBITDAX

Debt/PD
(mcfe)

Debt/
EV

104 3/4

8.64%

-0.83%

6.08%

1,159

62.8%

$378.5

-$230.7

$352.7

2.8x

$2.37

26.3%

15-May-13
1-Jul-13
15-May-15
1-Nov-15
15-Apr-15
15-Sep-15

105 7/8
104 15/16
103 1/4
103 1/8
104 5/16
103 7/8

10.38%
9.00%
6.74%
6.56%
8.12%
7.60%

0.12%
0.07%
-1.28%
-1.58%
-1.08%
-1.43%

2.65%
-0.42%
-0.92%
-3.98%
0.15%
0.16%

4,100
4,100
4,100
4,100
4,100
4,100

61.2%
61.2%
61.2%
61.2%
61.2%
61.2%

$1,217.6
$1,217.6
$1,217.6
$1,217.6
$1,217.6
$1,217.6

$394.9
$394.9
$394.9
$394.9
$394.9
$394.9

$2,214.1
$2,214.1
$2,214.1
$2,214.1
$2,214.1
$2,214.1

4.0x
4.0x
4.0x
4.0x
4.0x
4.0x

$1.59
$1.59
$1.59
$1.59
$1.59
$1.59

40.5%
40.5%
40.5%
40.5%
40.5%
40.5%

817bp

15-Nov-12

104 15/16

11.31%

-0.09%

2.17%

256

59.4%

$309.8

-$397.2

$618.8

1.8x

$2.55

23.7%

$750.0 104 1/2 5.70%

439bp

15-Mar-15

104 7/8

6.22%

-0.03%

3.91%

4,248

$307.2

-$705.2

$2,146.3

5.8x

$400.0

951bp

12-May-14

104 7/8

9.90%

-0.17%

13.53%

168

16.0%

$187.4

-$0.4

$103.0

2.1x

2.7x

34.5%

3.20%
5.37%
5.65%
5.94%
5.19%

309bp
519bp
546bp
489bp
321bp

1-Sep-12
15-Apr-13
15-May-13
1-Feb-15

100
101 8/77
103 9/16
103 7/16

6.54%
6.48%
6.79%
6.58%
5.52%

0.23%
0.21%
-0.13%
-0.02%
-0.29%

1.93%
1.06%
0.12%
-0.52%
-1.95%

3,909
3,909
3,909
3,909
3,909

59.7%
59.7%
59.7%
59.7%
59.7%

$1,727.0
$1,727.0
$1,727.0
$1,727.0
$1,727.0

-$739.0
-$739.0
-$739.0
-$739.0
-$739.0

$1,375.0
$1,375.0
$1,375.0
$1,375.0
$1,375.0

1.7x
1.7x
1.7x
1.7x
0.4x

$1.41
$1.41
$1.41
$1.41
$0.35

40.6%
40.6%
40.6%
40.6%
10.1%

87 1/2 13.33%
87 1/2 13.33%

1249bp
1249bp

15-Feb-14
15-Feb-14

104 7/8
104 7/8

11.14%
11.14%

2.68%
2.68%

0.25%
0.25%

1,207
1,207

92.0%
92.0%

$242.8
$242.8

-$354.6
-$354.6

$211.3
$211.3

3.2x
3.2x

$2.30
$2.30

na
na

$400.0 103 1/4 6.45%


$400.0 99 1/2 6.57%

562bp
465bp

1-Feb-15
1-Nov-16

103 5/8
103 1/4

7.02%
6.53%

-1.65%
-0.76%

1.67%
2.07%

472
472

12.3%
12.3%

$234.5
$234.5

-$392.5
-$392.5

$820.8
$820.8

3.4x
3.4x

$3.72
$3.72

26.0%
26.0%

$2,563.0 101 1/4 8.19%


$1,063.0 99 1/2 8.45%

729bp
644bp

1-Jun-15
1-Apr-17

104 1/4
104 3/16

8.40%
8.42%

-2.22%
-1.21%

5.70%
-0.13%

0
0

nm
nm

nm
nm

$0.0
$0.0

$4,407.0
$4,407.0

nm
nm

nm
nm

14.9%
14.9%

10.98%
10.09%

1027bp
876bp

15-Jun-13
15-Apr-15

105 3/16
103 5/8

10.59%
8.43%

0.34%
0.27%

-5.22%
-5.25%

990
990

78.4%
78.4%

$213.8
$213.8

-$276.6
-$276.6

$108.5
$108.5

3.3x
3.3x

$1.62
$1.62

78.7%
78.7%

$900.0 103 1/2 7.86%

680bp

1-Feb-16

104 5/16

8.33%

-0.44%

5.85%

$203.0

8.88%

871bp

15-Feb-13

106

11.11%

-0.09%

2.53%

1,015

66.2%

$188.3

-$177.1

$236.5

2.8x

$1.13

40.8%

$150.0 102 7/8 9.18%

843bp

1-Sep-14

105

9.72%

-0.04%

2.52%

265

91.0%

$103.3

-$107.2

$122.3

1.5x

$0.93

26.9%

Amount
Outst.

Recent Quotes
Bid
YTW
Spread

$550.0

110

7.02%

618bp

15-Feb-15

$40.5
$16.0
$750.0
$1,800.0
$1,300.0
$1,000.0

113 1/4
109 3/4
96 1/2
95 1/4
106 1/4
102

4.42%
5.43%
7.14%
7.07%
7.32%
7.35%

423bp
522bp
579bp
561bp
622bp
615bp

$300.0

105

8.42%

$325.0
$550.0
$600.0
$700.0
$750.0
$150.0
$200.0

$300.0
$300.0

98 1/2 10.20%
101 13/50
102 1/4
104 7/8
104 1/2
104 1/4

98
86

108

Next Call Date


Date
Price

LTM
EBITDAX

23.5%

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Energy: Exploration and Production Gregg Brody (1-212) 834-5997

Coupon

Desc.

Recom.

Maturity

Pioneer Natural Resource


5.875%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Jul-16
6.650%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Mar-17
6.875%
Bds
NR
1-May-18
7.500%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Jan-20
7.200%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Jan-28
Plains Exploration & Production
7.750%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Jun-15
10.000% Sr Guar Nts NR
1-Mar-16
7.000%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Mar-17
7.625%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Jun-18
8.625%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Oct-19
7.625%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Apr-20
6.625%
Sr Nts
NR
1-May-21
6.750%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Feb-22
QEP Resources
6.800%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Apr-18
6.050%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Sep-16
6.800%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Mar-20
6.875%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Mar-21
5.375%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Oct-22
Quicksilver Resources
8.250%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Aug-15
11.750%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Jan-16
7.125% Sr Sub Nts NR
1-Apr-16
9.125%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Aug-19
Range Resources
7.500% Sr Sub Nts Hold
1-Oct-17
7.250% Sr Sub Nts Hold 1-May-18
8.000% Sr Sub Nts Hold 15-May-19
6.750% Sr Sub Nts Hold 1-Aug-20
5.750% Sr Sub Nts Hold
1-Jun-21
5.000% Sr Sub Nts Hold 15-Aug-22
Rosetta Resources
9.500%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Apr-18
Samson Investment
9.750%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Feb-20
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

25

Ratings
Moody's
S&P

Amount
Outst.

Ba1/BBBBa1/BBBBa1/BBBBa1/BBBBa1/BBB-

$455.4
$485.1
$450.0
$450.0
$250.0

B1/BB
B1/BB
B1/BB
B1/BB
B1/BB
B1/BB
B1/BB
B1/BB
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+

Recent Quotes
Bid
YTW
Spread
3.08%
3.58%
3.53%
4.23%
5.08%

235bp
272bp
242bp
272bp
273bp

$79.3
103
1.20%
$184.9 110 1/4 3.66%
$76.9 103 1/8 5.82%
$400.0
106
5.38%
$400.0
112
5.09%
$300.0 108 3/4 5.58%
$600.0
104
5.92%
$1,000.0 104
6.10%

114bp
349bp
535bp
519bp
470bp
510bp
458bp
458bp

YTD
Total
Return

2011
Reserves
Bcfe

%
Natural
Gas

LTM
EBITDAX

15-Jun-12
1-Mar-13
15-Mar-13
1-Jun-13
15-Oct-14
1-Apr-15
1-May-16
1-Feb-17

FCF

Balance
Sheet
Liquidity

Debt/
EBITDAX

Debt/PD
(mcfe)

Debt/
EV

5.29%
5.85%
5.82%
6.18%
5.87%

0.27%
-0.33%
0.56%
-0.52%
1.78%

3.47%
4.39%
6.03%
5.16%
8.88%

6,065
6,065
6,065
6,065
6,065

44.1%
44.1%
44.1%
44.1%
44.1%

$1,709.3
$1,709.3
$1,709.3
$1,709.3
$1,709.3

-$769.0
-$769.0
-$769.0
-$769.0
-$769.0

$1,661.4
$1,661.4
$1,661.4
$1,661.4
$1,661.4

1.5x
1.5x
1.5x
1.5x
1.5x

$0.73
$0.73
$0.73
$0.73
$0.73

16.7%
16.7%
16.7%
16.7%
16.7%

101 15/16
105
102 1/3
103 13/16
104 5/16
103 13/16
103 5/16
103 5/8

7.52%
9.07%
6.79%
7.19%
7.70%
7.01%
6.37%
6.49%

0.25%
0.07%
0.23%
0.00%
0.03%
0.00%
-1.64%
-0.26%

1.86%
2.02%
1.50%
2.00%
4.07%
2.39%
0.81%
1.08%

2,465
2,465
2,465
2,465
2,465
2,465
2,465
2,465

40.6%
40.6%
40.6%
40.6%
40.6%
40.6%
40.6%
40.6%

$1,265.1
$1,265.1
$1,265.1
$1,265.1
$1,265.1
$1,265.1
$1,265.1
$1,265.1

-$650.6
-$650.6
-$650.6
-$650.6
-$650.6
-$650.6
-$650.6
-$650.6

$1,549.1
$1,549.1
$1,549.1
$1,549.1
$1,549.1
$1,549.1
$1,549.1
$1,549.1

3.0x
3.0x
3.0x
3.0x
3.0x
3.0x
3.0x
3.0x

$2.76
$2.76
$2.76
$2.76
$2.76
$2.76
$2.76
$2.76

40.9%
40.9%
40.9%
40.9%
40.9%
40.9%
40.9%
40.9%

-0.94%
0.19%
1.35%
-0.02%
0.05%

2.10%
12.31%
-3.85%
4.02%
-0.33%

3,614
3,614
3,614
3,614
3,614

76.1%
76.1%
76.1%
76.1%
76.1%

$1,386.6
$1,386.6
$1,386.6
$1,386.6
$1,386.6

-$109.5
-$109.5
-$109.5
-$109.5
-$109.5

$887.9
$887.9
$887.9
$887.9
$887.9

1.2x
1.2x
1.2x
1.2x
1.2x

$0.86
$0.86
$0.86
$0.86
$0.86

24.9%
24.9%
24.9%
24.9%
24.9%

437bp
389bp
434bp
364bp
345bp

1-Jul-22

100

6.37%
5.73%
6.43%
6.24%
5.43%

$438.0 99 3/4 7.83%


$590.6 105 1/2 9.70%
$350.0 91 3/4 9.68%
$298.0
97
9.70%

729bp
918bp
901bp
829bp

1-Jul-13
1-Apr-13
15-Aug-14

105 7/8
101 3/16
104 9/16

8.27%
11.14%
7.77%
9.41%

1.00%
0.13%
-0.01%
-0.20%

-1.48%
-4.14%
-5.67%
-5.88%

2,791
2,791
2,791
2,791

77.0%
77.0%
77.0%
77.0%

$420.5
$420.5
$420.5
$420.5

-$420.7
-$420.7
-$420.7
-$420.7

$800.1
$800.1
$800.1
$800.1

3.6x
3.6x
4.5x
3.6x

$0.98
$0.98
$0.98
$0.98

29.2%
29.2%
73.2%
29.2%

Ba3/BB
Ba3/BB
Ba3/BB
Ba3/BB
Ba3/BB
Ba3/BB

$250.0
$250.0
$300.0
$500.0
$500.0
$600.0

104 3/4
105 1/2
109 3/4
107 1/2
103 1/2
97 1/2

5.06%
5.19%
4.86%
5.19%
5.16%
5.32%

493bp
500bp
455bp
465bp
380bp
328bp

1-Oct-12
1-May-13
15-May-14
1-Aug-15
1-Jun-16
15-Feb-17

103 3/4
103 5/8
104
103 3/8
102 7/8
102 1/2

7.16%
6.87%
7.29%
6.28%
5.56%
5.13%

-0.24%
0.22%
0.24%
-0.71%
-1.22%
-1.09%

0.56%
0.49%
0.44%
-1.41%
-2.88%
-1.99%

5,054
5,054
5,054
5,054
5,054
5,054

79.3%
79.3%
79.3%
79.3%
79.3%
79.3%

$859.4
$859.4
$859.4
$859.4
$859.4
$859.4

-$591.9
-$591.9
-$591.9
-$591.9
-$591.9
-$591.9

$1,284.5
$1,284.5
$1,284.5
$1,284.5
$1,284.5
$1,284.5

2.3x
2.3x
2.3x
2.3x
2.3x
2.3x

$0.82
$0.82
$0.82
$0.82
$0.82
$0.82

18.5%
18.5%
18.5%
18.5%
18.5%
18.5%

Caa1/BB-

$200.0

109

6.85%

637bp

15-Apr-14

104 3/4

8.72%

-0.60%

3.33%

479

78.0%

$347.0

-$110.5

$342.1

0.7x

$1.02

7.7%

$2,250.0 100 3/4 9.57%

851bp

15-Feb-16

104 7/8

9.68%

-0.17%

2.59%

2,330

87.0%

$1,006.0

na

$1,032.0

3.6x

$2.45

na

B1/B

106 3/4
105 1/2
105 49/66
110 1/4
99

MTD
Total
Return

5.46%
4.64%
5.88%
5.40%
5.50%

B2/B
B2/B
B3/BB2/B

$138.6
$176.8
$137.8
$625.0
$500.0

111 5/98
113 8/11
118 1/15
121 22/53
122 31/41

Current
Yield

Next Call Date


Date
Price

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Energy: Exploration and Production Gregg Brody (1-212) 834-5997

Coupon

Desc.

Recom.

SandRidge Energy
9.875%
Sr Nts
Buy
8.000%
Sr Nts
Buy
8.750%
Sr Nts
Buy
7.500%
Sr Nts
Buy
8.125%
Sr Nts
NR
SM Energy
6.625%
Sr Nts
NR
6.500%
Sr Nts
NR
Southwestern Energy
7.500%
Sr Nts
Buy
Stone Energy
6.750% Sr Sub Nts NR
8.625%
Sr Nts
NR
Swift Energy
7.125%
Sr Nts
NR
8.875%
Sr Nts
NR
7.875%
Sr Nts
NR
Whiting Petroleum
7.000% Sr Sub Nts NR
6.500% Sr Sub Nts NR
WPX Energy Inc.
5.250%
Nts
NR
6.000%
Nts
NR
W&T Offshore
8.500%
Sr Nts
NR
Vanguard Natural Resources
7.875%
Sr Nts
NR
Venoco
11.500%
Sr Nts
NR
8.875%
Sr Nts
NR

Maturity

Ratings
Moody's
S&P

15-May-16
1-Jun-18
15-Jan-20
15-Mar-21
15-Oct-22

B3/B
B3/B
B3/B
B3/NR
B3/B

$365.5
109
7.28%
$750.0 101 1/4 7.64%
$450.0 102 3/4 8.14%
$900.0 97 1/2 7.89%
$750.0 99 3/4 8.16%

659bp
693bp
709bp
612bp
611bp

1-Jun-13
15-Jan-15
15-Mar-16
15-Apr-17

104
104 3/8
103 3/4
104 1/16

9.06%
7.90%
8.52%
7.69%
8.15%

0.74%
-0.46%
-0.43%
-0.76%
-0.25%

4.40%
2.45%
1.82%
0.35%
-0.25%

3,201
3,201
3,201
3,201
3,201

48.1%
48.1%
48.1%
48.1%
48.1%

$1,043.4
$1,043.4
$1,043.4
$1,043.4
$1,043.4

-$954.7
-$954.7
-$954.7
-$954.7
-$954.7

$1,058.1
$1,058.1
$1,058.1
$1,058.1
$1,058.1

3.4x
3.4x
3.4x
3.4x
3.4x

$2.10
$2.10
$2.10
$2.10
$2.10

48.9%
48.9%
48.9%
48.9%
48.9%

15-Feb-19
15-Nov-21

B1/BB
B1/BB

$350.0
$350.0

5.43%
5.68%

459bp
421bp

15-Feb-15
15-Nov-16

103 5/16
103 1/4

6.31%
6.19%

-0.73%
-1.18%

2.68%
3.68%

1,259
1,259

52.7%
52.7%

$924.0
$924.0

-$727.1
-$727.1

$1,118.6
$1,118.6

1.1x
1.1x

$1.17
$1.17

19.5%
19.5%

1-Feb-18 Baa3/BBB- $600.0 120 40/63 3.53%

247bp

6.22%

0.33%

6.32%

5,893

99.9%

$1,790.4

-$417.5

$844.1

0.8x

$0.41

11.9%

15-Dec-14 Caa2/CCC+ $200.0


100
6.73%
1-Feb-17 Caa1/B
$375.0 104 1/2 7.24%

658bp
660bp

15-Dec-12
1-Feb-14

100
104 5/16

6.75%
8.25%

-0.51%
0.27%

3.43%
4.66%

602
602

54.4%
54.4%

$632.6
$632.6

-$143.0
-$143.0

$571.3
$571.3

1.4x
1.1x

$2.48
$2.48

45.9%
36.2%

1-Jun-17
15-Jan-20
1-Mar-22

B3/B+
B3/B+
B3/B+

$250.0 102 1/2 6.23%


$225.0 108 1/2 6.91%
$250.0
102
7.53%

572bp
647bp
600bp

1-Jun-12
15-Jan-15
1-Mar-17

103 9/16
104 7/16
103 15/16

6.95%
8.18%
7.72%

-0.95%
-0.18%
-0.71%

4.99%
5.49%
5.49%

945
945
945

65.3%
65.3%
65.3%

$396.4
$396.4
$396.4

-$142.8
-$142.8
-$142.8

$551.7
$551.7
$551.7

1.8x
1.8x
1.8x

$2.16
$2.16
$2.16

43.8%
43.8%
43.8%

1-Feb-14
1-Oct-18

Ba3/BB+
Ba3/BB+

$250.0 106 1/2 3.23%


$350.0
106
4.98%

296bp
422bp

1-Oct-14

103 1/4

6.57%
6.13%

0.22%
-0.27%

1.79%
3.13%

2,071
2,071

13.8%
13.8%

$1,354.1
$1,354.1

-$257.9
-$257.9

$334.4
$334.4

1.0x
1.0x

$0.97
$0.97

18.3%
18.3%

15-Jan-17 Ba1/BB+ $400.0 96 1/2 6.10%


15-Jan-22 Ba1/BB+ $1,100.0 96 3/8 6.50%

528bp
454bp

15-Oct-21

100

5.44%
6.23%

-2.78%
-3.35%

-2.50%
-4.18%

5,000
5,000

77.0%
77.0%

$1,330.0
$1,330.0

-$453.0
-$453.0

$2,332.0
$2,332.0

1.1x
1.1x

$0.51
$0.51

38.4%
38.4%

15-Jun-19

Caa1/B

$600.0 104 1/8 7.52%

661bp

15-Jun-15

104 1/4

8.16%

-1.24%

2.89%

914

33.5%

$646.4

$275.7

$562.1

1.1x

$1.44

33.3%

1-Apr-20

Caa1/B-

$350.0

98 1/4 8.18%

663bp

1-Apr-16

103 15/16

8.02%

$150.0 102 1/2 10.78%


$500.0 91 1/4 10.71%

1001bp
941bp

1-Oct-13
15-Feb-15

105 3/4
104 7/16

11.22%
9.73%

575
575

50.6%
50.6%

$221.8
$221.8

-$67.7
-$67.7

$161.4
$161.4

3.1x
3.1x

$2.35
$2.35

53.5%
53.5%

1-Oct-17 Caa1/B15-Feb-19 Caa1/B-

Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

26

Amount
Outst.

Recent Quotes
Bid
YTW
Spread

105
105

Next Call Date


Date
Price

Current
Yield

MTD
Total
Return

YTD
Total
Return

2011
Reserves
Bcfe

%
Natural
Gas

LTM
EBITDAX

FCF

Balance
Sheet
Liquidity

Debt/
EBITDAX

Debt/PD
(mcfe)

Debt/
EV

-0.77%
-1.07%
0.05%

4.54%
4.00%

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Energy: Exploration and Production/Diversified Gregg Brody (1-212) 834-5997

Coupon

Desc.

Recom.

Maturity

Ratings
Moody's
S&P

El Paso
7.875%
7.375%
12.000%
6.875%
8.250%
5.950%
7.000%
7.000%
7.250%
6.500%
8.625%
7.500%
8.050%
7.350%
7.800%
7.750%
8.000%
8.375%

Sr Nts
Sr Nts
Sr Nts
Sr Nts
Sr Nts
Sr Nts
Sr Nts
Debs
Sr Nts
Sr Nts
Debs
Debs
Sr Nts
Sr Nts
Sr Nts
Sr Nts
Sr Nts
Bds

NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR

15-Jun-12
15-Dec-12
12-Dec-13
15-Jun-14
15-Feb-16
15-Apr-17
15-Jun-17
1-Feb-18
1-Jun-18
1-Apr-20
15-Jan-22
15-Nov-26
15-Oct-30
15-Feb-31
1-Aug-31
15-Jan-32
1-Mar-32
15-Jun-32

Ba3/BBBa3/BBBa3/BBBa3/BBBa3/BBBaa3/BB
Ba3/BBBa3/BBBa3/BBBa1/BB
Baa3/BB
Baa3/BB
Ba3/BBBaa3/BB
Ba3/BBBa3/BBBaa3/BB
Baa3/BB

Amount
Outst.

Recent Quotes
Bid
YTW
Spread

$176.0 100 79/96


$98.0 102 64/85
$29.9 114 81/91
$207.4 107 45/53
$67.9 109 9/20
$355.0
111
$786.2 111 1/56
$82.2 106 17/18
$477.1 111 43/74
$535.0 113 9/22
$260.0 125 43/64
$200.0 117 61/68
$234.2 117 21/59
$153.3 116 46/81
$537.4 112 19/32
$1,005.2112 64/81
$257.7 124 59/95
$300.0 124 19/48

2.76%
3.14%
2.73%
3.09%
5.48%
3.53%
4.58%
5.58%
5.03%
4.48%
5.23%
5.68%
6.43%
5.88%
6.63%
6.58%
5.88%
6.23%

Next Call Date


Date
Price

269bp
299bp
248bp
277bp
483bp
266bp
367bp
452bp
390bp
293bp
326bp
339bp
392bp
335bp
407bp
399bp
329bp
362bp

Current
Yield

MTD
Total
Return

YTD
Total
Return

2011
Reserves
Bcfe

%
Natural
Gas

FCF

Balance
Sheet
Liquidity

Debt/
EBITDAX

7.81%
7.18%
10.44%
6.37%
7.54%
5.36%
6.31%
6.55%
6.50%
5.73%
6.86%
6.36%
6.86%
6.31%
6.93%
6.87%
6.42%
6.73%

0.08%
0.10%
0.14%
0.17%
0.66%
0.73%
-0.09%
0.87%
-0.11%
1.68%
1.49%
1.93%
1.82%
1.93%
-0.70%
-0.71%
0.86%
1.91%

0.75%
0.74%
1.93%
0.87%
2.01%
0.34%
3.11%
4.46%
3.74%
4.49%
1.03%
-2.42%
2.63%
0.88%
-0.39%
-0.45%
2.52%
-0.10%

3,362
3,362
3,362
3,362
3,362
3,362
3,362
3,362
3,362
3,362
3,362
3,362
3,362
3,362
3,362
3,362
3,362
3,362

78.4%
78.4%
78.4%
78.4%
78.4%
78.4%
78.4%
78.4%
78.4%
78.4%
78.4%
78.4%
78.4%
78.4%
78.4%
78.4%
78.4%
78.4%

$3,563.0
$3,563.0
$3,563.0
$3,563.0
$3,563.0
$3,563.0
$3,563.0
$3,563.0
$3,563.0
$3,563.0
$3,563.0
$3,563.0
$3,563.0
$3,563.0
$3,563.0
$3,563.0
$3,563.0
$3,563.0

-$1,706.0
-$1,706.0
-$1,706.0
-$1,706.0
-$1,706.0
-$1,706.0
-$1,706.0
-$1,706.0
-$1,706.0
-$1,706.0
-$1,706.0
-$1,706.0
-$1,706.0
-$1,706.0
-$1,706.0
-$1,706.0
-$1,706.0
-$1,706.0

$1,690.0
$1,690.0
$1,690.0
$1,690.0
$1,690.0
$1,690.0
$1,690.0
$1,690.0
$1,690.0
$1,690.0
$1,690.0
$1,690.0
$1,690.0
$1,690.0
$1,690.0
$1,690.0
$1,690.0
$1,690.0

3.9x
3.9x
3.9x
3.9x
3.9x
3.9x
3.9x
3.9x
3.9x
3.9x
3.9x
3.9x
3.9x
3.9x
3.9x
3.9x
3.9x
3.9x

Current
Yield

MTD
Total
Return

YTD
Total
Return

LTM
EBITDA

Dist.
Cash
Flow

LTM
FCF

Balance
Sheet
Liquidity

Debt/
EBITDA

Debt/
Book
Cap

Dist.
Cov.
Raio

Debt/
EV

LTM
EBITDAX

Debt/
Proved Res
(mcfe)

Debt/
EV
36.3%
36.3%
36.3%
36.3%
36.3%
36.3%
36.3%
36.3%
36.3%
36.3%
36.3%
36.3%
36.3%
36.3%
36.3%
36.3%
36.3%
36.3%

Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

Energy: Propane Distribution Gregg Brody (1-212) 834-5997


Coupon
Desc. Recom. Maturity
Amerigas Partners, L.P.
6.250%
Sr Nts
NR
20-Aug-19
6.750%
Sr Nts
NR
20-May-20
6.500%
Sr Nts
NR
20-May-21
7.000%
Sr Nts
NR
20-May-22
Ferrellgas Partners, L.P.
9.125%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Oct-17
6.500%
Sr Nts
NR
1-May-21
8.625%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Jun-20
Inergy, L.P.
8.750%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Mar-15
7.000%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Oct-18
1-Aug-21
NR
Sr Nts
6.875%
Suburban Propane Partners, L.P.
7.375%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Mar-20
Star Gas Partners
8.875%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Dec-17
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

27

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

Amount
Outst.

Ba3/NR
Ba2/NR
Ba3/NR
Ba2/NR

$450.0 100 3/8 6.16%


$550.0 100 3/4 6.60%
$470.0
101
6.32%
$1,000.0 101 1/2 6.76%

521bp
548bp
497bp
517bp

20-Aug-15
20-May-16
20-May-16
20-May-17

103
103
103
103

1/8
3/8
1/4
1/2

6.23%
6.70%
6.44%
6.90%

0.70%
-0.51%
-0.27%
-0.26%

2.58%
2.51%
4.62%
3.33%

$580.7
$580.7
$580.7
$580.7

$466.1
$466.1
$466.1
$466.1

$242.7
$242.7
$242.7
$242.7

$122.6
$122.6
$122.6
$122.6

4.2x
4.2x
4.2x
4.2x

88%
88%
88%
88%

2.7x
2.7x
2.7x
2.7x

52.7%
52.7%
52.7%
52.7%

B2/B+
B2/B+
B3/B-

$300.0 103 1/2 7.95%


$500.0
90
8.08%
$182.0 90 1/2 10.37%

737bp
628bp
877bp

1-Oct-13
1-May-16
15-Jun-15

104 9/16
103 1/4
104 5/16

8.82%
7.22%
9.53%

-0.67%
-0.04%
0.31%

1.46%
4.29%
-3.94%

$187.8
$187.8
$187.8

$266.7
$266.7
$266.7

$79.6
$79.6
$79.6

$249.2
$249.2
$249.2

5.9x
5.9x
6.9x

94%
94%
95%

0.6x
0.6x
0.6x

47.4%
47.4%
55.1%

Ba3/B+
Ba3/B+
Ba3/B+

$0.8
110
2.13%
$600.0 98 1/2 7.29%
$600.0 95 3/4 7.52%

196bp
609bp
566bp

1-Mar-13
1-Oct-14
1-Aug-16

104 3/8
103 1/2
103 7/16

7.95%
7.11%
7.18%

0.04%
1.26%
-0.28%

-0.47%
-1.00%
-2.73%

$372.2
$372.2
$372.2

$251.1
$251.1
$251.1

-$227.1
-$227.1
-$227.1

$586.8
$586.8
$586.8

4.1x
4.1x
4.1x

57%
57%
57%

0.8x
0.8x
0.8x

41.9%
41.9%
41.9%

Ba3/BB

$250.0

6.15%

507bp

15-Mar-15

103 11/16

6.96%

0.00%

3.83%

$179.4

$140.9

$8.2

$244.7

1.9x

49%

1.2x

20.0%

$125.0 99 1/2 8.99%

797bp

1-Dec-14

104 7/16

8.92%

0.29%

0.48%

$82.5

$72.4

$51.7

$284.5

1.5x

33%

3.5x

40.0%

B2/B-

Recent Quotes
Bid
YTW
Spread

106

Next Call Date


Date
Price

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Energy: Midstream Gregg Brody (1-212) 834-5997
Coupon

Desc.

Recom.

Maturity

Atlas Pipeline
8.750% Sr Guar Nts NR
15-Jun-18
Chesapeake Midstream Partners
5.875%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Apr-21
6.125%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Jul-22
Copano Energy LLC
7.750%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Jun-18
7.125%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Apr-21
Crosstex Energy
8.875%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Feb-18
Energy Transfer Partners
9.700%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Mar-19
9.000%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Apr-19
7.500%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Oct-20
Holly Energy Partners
6.250%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Mar-15
8.250%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Mar-18
MarkWest Energy Partners LP
8.750%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Apr-18
6.750%
Guar Nts
NR
1-Nov-20
6.500%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Aug-21
6.250%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Jun-22
Martin Midstream Partners
8.875%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Apr-18
NGPL Pipeco
7.119%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Dec-17
6.514%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Dec-12
7.768%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Dec-37
Niska Gas Storage US/Canada
8.875%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Mar-18
Penn Virginia Resource Partners
8.250%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Apr-18
Regency Energy Partners
9.375%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Jun-16
6.875%
Guar Nts
NR
1-Dec-18
6.500%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Jul-21
Rockies Express
6.250%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Jul-13
3.900%
Nts
NR
15-Apr-15
6.850%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Jul-18
5.625%
Nts
NR
15-Apr-20
6.875%
Nts
NR
15-Apr-40
Sabine Pass LNG
30-Nov-13
7.250% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien) NR
30-Nov-16
7.500% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien) NR
Targa Resources Partners
8.250%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Jul-16
11.250%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Jul-17
6.875%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Feb-21
6.375%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Aug-22
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

28

Ratings
Moodys
S&P
B3/B

Amount
Outst.

Recent Quotes
Bid
YTW
Spread

Next Call Date


Date
Price

Current
Yield

MTD
Total
Return

YTD
Total
Return

LTM
EBITDA

Dist.
Cash
Flow

LTM
FCF

Balance
Sheet
Liquidity

Debt/
EBITDA

Debt/
Book
Cap

Dist.
Cov.
Raio

Debt/
EV

$360.8 106 1/2 6.52%

633bp

15-Jun-13

104 3/8

8.22%

0.27%

3.75%

$181.0

$131.2

-$196.3

$308.1

2.9x

30%

1.3x

22.5%

$350.0
$750.0

6.17%
6.26%

438bp
422bp

15-Apr-15
15-Jan-17

104 13/32
103 1/16

5.99%
6.19%

-1.28%
-1.51%

-0.35%
0.62%

$449.5
$449.5

$355.7
$355.7

-$190.0
-$190.0

$727.1
$727.1

3.9x
3.9x

42%
42%

1.8x
1.8x

43.3%
43.3%

B1/B+
B1/B+

$249.5
105
$510.0 104 5/8 6.29%

583bp
497bp

1-Jun-13
1-Apr-16

103 7/8
103 9/16

7.38%
6.81%

0.47%
-0.37%

3.03%
5.47%

$203.4
$203.4

$152.4
$152.4

-$260.5
-$260.5

$222.0
$222.0

4.1x
4.1x

49%
49%

1.0x
1.0x

24.5%
24.5%

B2/B+

$725.0 104 3/4 7.42%

678bp

15-Feb-14

104 7/16

$209.6

$122.0

-$35.2

$479.0

3.8x

46%

1.3x

45.6%

Baa3/BBB- $400.0 128 11/32 4.83%


Baa3/BBB- $450.0 124 21/40 4.83%
Ba2/BB $1,800.0 110
5.98%

352bp
350bp
430bp

Ba3/BB+
Ba3/BB+

98
99

8.47%

-1.12%

-1.78%

7.56%
7.23%
6.82%

0.64%
0.63%
-0.65%

6.81%
6.70%
2.57%

B1/BBB1/BB-

$185.0 101 1/24 5.01%


$150.0
106
6.49%

484bp
583bp

1-Mar-13
15-Mar-14

100
104 1/8

6.19%
7.78%

0.21%
0.26%

1.99%
3.08%

$234.2
$234.2

$183.9
$183.9

$0.3
$0.3

$174.8
$174.8

2.6x
2.6x

86%
86%

1.1x
1.1x

31.8%
31.8%

Ba3/BB
Ba3/BB
Ba3/BB
Ba3/BB

$81.1
110
$500.0
107
$500.0 105 1/4
$700.0
104

2.86%
5.43%
5.56%
5.60%

268bp
484bp
427bp
411bp

15-Apr-13
1-Nov-15
15-Feb-16
15-Dec-16

104
103
103
103

3/8
3/8
1/4
1/8

7.95%
6.31%
6.18%
6.01%

0.70%
-0.70%
-0.73%
-0.74%

3.35%
3.91%
2.76%
1.19%

$451.4
$451.4
$451.4
$451.4

$332.8
$332.8
$332.8
$332.8

-$420.8
-$420.8
-$420.8
-$420.8

$547.2
$547.2
$547.2
$547.2

4.1x
4.1x
4.1x
4.1x

55%
55%
55%
55%

1.5x
1.5x
1.5x
1.5x

25.9%
25.9%
25.9%
25.9%

$200.0

8.27%

760bp

1-Apr-14

104 7/16

8.70%

-0.68%

1.41%

$101.5

-$16.7

-$122.0

$145.2

4.3x

59%

nm

40.4%

Ba3/BBBa3/BBBa3/BB-

$1,250.0 91 51/82 9.04%


$1,250.0 96 35/46 11.69%
$500.0
87
9.08%

801bp
1154bp
615bp

7.77%
6.73%
8.93%

0.79%
0.49%
1.63%

-5.14%
-2.39%
-1.78%

B2/B+

$678.8 93 1/4 10.43%

935bp

15-Mar-14

104 7/16

9.52%

-0.48%

-2.00%

B2/B

$300.0

7.66%

698bp

15-Apr-14

104 1/8

8.09%

-0.21%

3.73%

$248.9

$189.4

-$110.0

$566.7

3.0x

65%

1.4x

28.9%

B1/BBB1/BBB1/BB-

$250.0
110
4.28%
$600.0 105 1/4 5.57%
$500.0 105 1/2 5.57%

409bp
477bp
418bp

1-Jun-13
1-Dec-14
15-Jul-16

104 11/16
103 7/16
103 1/4

8.52%
6.53%
6.16%

0.39%
-0.25%
-0.26%

2.37%
0.87%
3.08%

$358.0
$358.0
$358.0

$242.4
$242.4
$242.4

-$378.0
-$378.0
-$378.0

$672.1
$672.1
$672.1

4.4x
4.4x
4.4x

32%
32%
32%

1.0x
1.0x
1.0x

29.5%
29.5%
29.5%

Ba1/BB
Ba1/BB
Ba1/BB
Ba1/BB
Ba1/BB

$500.0
$450.0
$550.0
$750.0
$500.0

4.57%
6.80%
8.14%
7.98%
8.78%

437bp
632bp
698bp
642bp
571bp

6.13%
4.23%
7.31%
6.52%
8.57%

0.69%
0.40%
1.04%
1.64%
0.88%

-1.64%
-5.49%
-7.18%
-7.68%
-10.49%

$550.0 104 3/4 4.19%


$1,482.0 106 3/4 5.81%

394bp
501bp

6.92%
7.03%

-0.47%
-0.23%

5.69%
8.25%

7.84%
9.96%
6.61%
6.38%

0.26%
-0.54%
0.22%
-1.25%

2.68%
3.10%
4.49%
1.35%

$458.7
$458.7
$458.7
$458.7

$287.4
$287.4
$287.4
$287.4

-$123.7
-$123.7
-$123.7
-$123.7

$1,108.7
$1,108.7
$1,108.7
$1,108.7

3.0x
3.0x
3.0x
3.0x

48%
48%
48%
0.5x

1.3x
1.3x
1.3x
1.3x

28.9%
28.9%
28.9%
28.9%

B3/B

B3/BBB3/BBBa3/BB
Ba3/BB
Ba3/BB
Ba3/BB

102

102

102
92 1/4
93 3/4
86 1/4
80 1/4

$209.1 105 1/4


$72.7
113
$483.6
104
$400.0
100

2.65%
4.80%
6.14%
6.37%

257bp
460bp
486bp
486bp

1-Jul-12
15-Jul-13
1-Feb-16
1-Feb-17

104 1/8
105 5/8
103 7/16
103 3/16

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Energy: Services Offshore Drilling & Support Gregg Brody (1-212) 834-5997
Coupon

Desc.

Recom.

Maturity

Atwood Oceanics
6.500%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Feb-20
Bristow
7.500%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Sep-17
CHC Helicopter
15-Oct-20
9.250% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien) NR
Compagnie Generale de Geophysique
9.500%
Sr Nts
NR
15-May-16
7.750%
Sr Nts
NR
15-May-17
6.500%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Jun-21
Expro
8.500% Sr Sec Nts NR
15-Dec-16
GulfMark Offshore
6.375%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Mar-22
Helix Energy Solutions
9.500%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Jan-16
Hercules Offshore
10.500%
Sr. Nts
NR
15-Oct-17
1-Apr-17
7.125% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien) NR
10.250%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Apr-19
Hornbeck Offshore Services
6.125%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Dec-14
8.000%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Sep-17
5.875%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Apr-20
PHII
8.625%
Guar Nts
NR
15-Oct-18
RDS Ultra-Deepwater
11.875% Sr Sec Nts NR
15-Mar-17
Seacor Holdings
5.875%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Oct-12
7.375%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Oct-19
Vantage Drilling
11.500% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien) NR
1-Aug-15
11.500% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien) NR
1-Aug-15
Welltec A/S
8.000% Sr Sec Nts NR
1-Feb-19
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

29

Ratings
Moody's
S&P

Amount
Outst.

Current
Yield

MTD
Total
Return

YTD
Total
Return

LTM
EBITDA

LTM
EBITDA
Margin

LTM
FCF

Balance
Sheet
Liquidity

Debt/
EBITDA

EBITDA/
Interest
Expense

Ba3/BB

$450.0

104

5.68%

462bp

1-Feb-16

103 7/20

6.25%

-0.74%

5.59%

Ba3/BB

$350.0

104

6.18%

580bp

15-Sep-12

103 3/4

7.21%

-0.24%

1.98%

$302.6

27.2%

-$60.2

$318.5

3.6x

6.6x

42.4%

B2/B+

$1,100.0

99

9.42%

775bp

15-Apr-15

104 5/8

9.34%

0.06%

12.60%

$412.7

25.4%

-$342.1

$232.3

6.5x

3.9x

na

Ba3/BBBa3/BBBa3/BB-

$350.0 108 1/2 5.60%


$400.0 103 3/4 6.38%
$650.0
101
6.32%

541bp
607bp
496bp

15-May-13
15-May-12
1-Jun-16

104 3/4
103 7/8
103 1/4

8.76%
7.47%
6.44%

-1.04%
0.01%
-0.75%

2.90%
4.57%
5.97%

$852.0
$852.0
$852.0

26.8%
26.8%
26.8%

$55.0
$55.0
$55.0

$739.3
$739.3
$739.3

2.1x
2.1x
2.1x

5.4x
5.4x
5.4x

31.7%
31.7%
31.7%

B3/B-

$1,400.0 96 1/4 9.51%

870bp

15-Dec-13

104 1/4

8.83%

0.29%

12.02%

$202.7

18.3%

-$236.9

$575.9

6.8x

0.4x

na

B1/BB-

$300.0 100 1/4 6.33%

479bp

15-Mar-17

103 3/16

6.36%

-0.04%

0.85%

$139.9

36.6%

$37.6

$272.1

2.2x

6.3x

21.0%

B3/B

$475.0 104 3/4 6.03%

588bp

15-Jan-13

102 3/8

9.07%

0.30%

3.15%

$675.5

48.3%

$341.2

$1,105.1

1.8x

7.1x

48.5%

Caa1/BB1/B+
Caa1/B-

$300.0 103 1/2 9.52%


$300.0 99 1/4 7.31%
$200.0
98
10.66%

875bp
644bp
934bp

15-Oct-13
1-Apr-14
1-Apr-15

105 1/4
105 11/32
107 11/16

10.14%
7.18%
10.46%

-0.82%
-0.64%
0.09%

9.23%
-0.49%
-1.63%

$149.9
$149.9
$149.9

22.9%
22.9%
22.9%

$38.8
$38.8
$38.8

$281.1
$281.1
$281.1

5.9x
2.0x
5.9x

1.9x
1.9x
1.9x

64.5%
21.8%
64.5%

Ba3/BBBa3/BBBa3/BB-

$300.0 101 10/77 4.26%


$250.0 105 1/4 6.25%
$375.0
99
6.03%

412bp
569bp
448bp

1-Dec-12
1-Sep-13
1-Apr-16

100
104
102 15/16

6.06%
7.60%
5.93%

0.20%
0.49%
-1.05%

2.20%
4.37%
-0.51%

$140.1
$140.1
$140.1

36.7%
36.7%
36.7%

-$25.9
-$25.9
-$25.9

$695.1
$695.1
$695.1

5.9x
5.9x
5.9x

2.3x
2.3x
2.3x

43.2%
43.2%
43.2%

B2/B+

$300.0

7.82%

705bp

15-Oct-14

104 5/16

8.37%

0.74%

5.06%

$86.6

16.6%

-$40.9

$137.5

5.7x

3.1x

66.5%

B3/B-

$270.0 109 1/2 8.94%

828bp

15-Mar-14

105 15/16

10.84%

-0.54%

6.72%

Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+

$176.5 101 16/31 2.52%


$233.5 106 4/7 6.26%

239bp
482bp

5.79%
6.92%

0.10%
1.13%

0.82%
2.95%

$246.2
$246.2

11.5%
11.5%

-$157.3
-$157.3

$882.3
$882.3

4.2x
4.2x

6.0x
6.0x

24.1%
24.1%

B3/BB3/NR

$1,225.0 108 3/4 7.27%


$775.0 108 3/4 7.27%

692bp
692bp

1-Feb-13
1-Feb-13

108 5/8
108 5/8

10.57%
10.57%

-0.77%
1.00%

3.41%
1.00%

$325.6
$325.6

67.1%
67.1%

-$117.1
-$117.1

$85.1
$85.1

6.2x
6.2x

2.1x
2.1x

85.3%
85.3%

751bp

1-Feb-15

106

8.33%

0.27%

0.27%

B1/BB-

$325.0

Recent Quotes
Bid
YTW
Spread

103

96

8.79%

Next Call Date


Date
Price

Debt/
LQA
EBITDA

Debt/
EV

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Energy: Services Land, EM & D, Seismic Gregg Brody (1-212) 834-5997
Coupon

Desc.

Recom.

Maturity

Ratings
Moody's
S&P

Amount
Outst.

SERVICES - LAND
Basic Energy Service
7.125%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Apr-16
B2/B
$225.0
7.750%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Feb-19
B2/B
$475.0
Calfrac Holdings
7.500%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Dec-20
B1/B+
$450.0
Chesapeake Oilfield Services
6.625%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Nov-19 Ba3/BB+
$650.0
Frac Tech
7.625%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Nov-18 Ba3/BB
$550.0
Heckmann
9.875%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Apr-18 Caa1/B$250.0
Key Energy
6.750%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Mar-21 B1/BB$475.0
Parker Drilling
9.125%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Apr-18
B1/B+
$300.0
Pioneer Drilling
9.875%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Mar-18
NR/B
$250.0
Precision Drilling
6.625%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Nov-20 Ba1/BB+
$650.0
6.500%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Dec-21 Ba1/BB+
$400.0
Stallion Oilfield Services
10.500% Sr Sec Nts NR
15-Feb-15
B3/B
$180.0
Trinidad Drilling
7.875%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Jan-19 B2/BB$450.0
SERVICES - EQUIPMENT MANUFACTURERS & DISTRIBUTION
Dresser-Rand Group
6.500%
Sr Sub Nts NR
1-May-21
B1/B+
$375.0
Exterran Holdings Inc.
7.250%
Guar Nts
NR
1-Dec-18 Ba3/BB
$350.0
Edgen Murray
12.250%Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
Buy
15-Jan-15 Caa3/BMcJunkin Redman
9.500%
Sr Sec Nts NR
15-Dec-16
B3/B$1,050.0
Superior Energy
6.875%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Jun-14 Ba3/BB+
$300.0
6.375%
Sr Nts
NR
1-May-19 Ba3/BB+
$500.0
7.125%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Dec-21 Ba3/BB+
$800.0
Stewart & Stevenson
Sr Nts
NR
15-Jul-14 Caa2/B$150.0
10.000%
SERVICES - SEISMIC
Compagnie Generale de Geophysique
9.500%
Sr Nts
NR
15-May-16 Ba3/BB$350.0
7.750%
Sr Nts
NR
15-May-17 Ba3/BB$400.0
Sr Nts
NR
1-Jun-21 Ba3/BB$650.0
6.500%
Geokinetics
9.750%
Sr Sec Nts NR
15-Dec-14 Caa2/CCC- $300.0
Global Geophysical Services
NR
1-May-17
B3/B+
$200.0
Sr Nts
10.500%
Seitel
9.750%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Feb-14 Caa1/B
$275.0
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

30

Recent Quotes
Bid
YTW
Spread

Next Call Date


Date
Price

Currrent
Yield

MTD
Total
Return

YTD
Total
Return

LTM
EBITDA

LTM
EBITDA
Margin

LTM
FCF

Balance
Sheet
Liquidity

Debt/
EBITDA

EBITDA/
Interest
Expense

Debt/
LQA
EBITDA

Debt/
EV

101 1/2 6.31%


102 1/2 7.13%

602bp
629bp

15-Apr-13
15-Feb-15

101 3/16
103 7/8

7.02%
7.56%

0.23%
0.25%

3.19%
3.78%

$334.3
$334.3

26.9%
26.9%

$57.1
$57.1

$284.7
$284.7

2.3x
2.3x

6.2x
6.2x

57.8%
57.8%

100 1/2 7.40%

616bp

1-Dec-15

103 3/4

7.46%

0.24%

5.20%

$316.3

24.0%

-$128.8

$389.5

1.5x

5.8x

31.5%

550bp

15-Nov-15

103 5/16

6.76%

-1.01%

-3.94%

$330.0

24.3%

-$40.8

$501.0

2.0x

7.4x

na

$875.4

$0.4

-$171.6

$248.4

2.3x

24.5x

na

98

6.97%

104

6.86%

562bp

15-Nov-14

103 9/16

7.33%

-0.23%

1.31%

99 1/2

9.99%

889bp

15-Apr-15

104 15/16

9.92%

0.22%

0.22%

101 1/2 6.47%

517bp

1-Mar-16

103 3/8

6.65%

-0.99%

3.32%

$419.7

22.7%

$69.6

$226.1

1.8x

9.9x

25.7%

105 1/2 7.49%

682bp

1-Apr-14

104 9/16

8.65%

-0.18%

2.61%

$224.1

33.0%

$11.2

$176.8

2.2x

9.5x

47.2%

105 1/2 8.20%

754bp

15-Mar-14

104 15/16

9.36%

-0.16%

3.51%

$166.1

25.1%

$200.5

$152.7

2.1x

13.8x

41.5%

104 1/2 5.79%


104 1/2 5.76%

456bp
428bp

15-Nov-15
15-Dec-16

103 5/16
103 1/4

6.34%
6.22%

-0.03%
0.20%

3.98%
4.22%

$610.2
$610.2

33.9%
33.9%

-$113.6
-$113.6

$1,028.1
$1,028.1

2.1x
2.1x

7.3x
7.3x

36.4%
36.4%

107

6.38%

610bp

15-Feb-13

105 1/4

9.81%

-0.37%

2.65%

$143.8

28.9%

-$6.4

$84.3

1.1x

nm

na

106

6.39%

556bp

15-Jan-15

103 15/16

7.43%

-0.10%

4.88%

$238.2

32.4%

-$23.9

$168.8

2.5x

11.2x

44.0%

104

5.80%

446bp

1-May-16

103 1/4

6.25%

0.20%

3.46%

$387.6

18.4%

$220.5

$342.8

2.7x

7.3x

21.6%

96

8.04%

17.68%

$62.6

6.9%

$43.1

$0.0

8.0x

679bp

1-Dec-13

105 7/16

7.55%

0.25%

3.17%

9.99%

973bp

15-Jan-13

106 1/8

11.84%

1.82%

7.28%

667bp

15-Dec-12

107 1/8

8.88%

-1.50%

8.00%

$297.7

6.2%

-$128.1

$562.1

5.4x

2.2x

na

100 1/4 4.74%


104
5.46%
106 1/2 6.05%

468bp
458bp
457bp

1-Jun-12
1-May-15
15-Dec-16

100
103 3/16
103 9/16

6.86%
6.13%
6.69%

0.22%
-1.64%
-1.14%

1.66%
3.93%
3.31%

$1,076.3
$1,076.3
$1,076.3

26.5%
26.5%
26.5%

$133.8
$133.8
$133.8

$717.1
$717.1
$717.1

2.2x
2.2x
2.2x

9.4x
9.4x
9.4x

39.1%
39.1%
39.1%

5.75%

567bp

15-Jul-12

100

9.90%

-0.64%

1.22%

$113.7

9.5%

$1,252.4

$126.4

1.9x

5.8x

na

108 1/2 5.60%


103 3/4 6.38%
101
6.32%

541bp
607bp
496bp

15-May-13
15-May-12
1-Jun-16

104 3/4
103 7/8
103 1/4

8.76%
7.47%
6.44%

-1.04%
0.01%
-0.75%

2.90%
4.57%
5.97%

$852.0
$852.0
$852.0

26.8%
26.8%
26.8%

$55.0
$55.0
$55.0

$739.3
$739.3
$739.3

2.1x
2.1x
2.1x

5.4x
5.4x
5.4x

31.7%
31.7%
31.7%

73 1/2 23.69%

2327bp

15-Dec-12

102 7/16

13.27%

-1.82%

20.83%

$89.9

16.1%

$72.3

$55.8

3.9x

na

90.4%

$465.0 103 1/2


107

101

0.1x

99 1/4 10.69%

981bp

1-May-14

105 1/4

10.58%

0.10%

8.55%

$191.0

75.0%

$85.4

$8.8

1.5x

7.9x

46.1%

102 5/8 6.43%

627bp

15-Feb-13

100

9.50%

0.55%

5.93%

$115.2

54.5%

-$53.2

$68.6

2.4x

2.8x

na

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Energy: Refiners Gregg Brody (1-212) 834-5997
Coupon

Desc.

Recom.

Maturity

Alon Refining Krotz Springs


13.500% Sr Sec Nts NR
15-Oct-14
Calumet Specialty Products Partners
9.375%
Sr Nts
NR
1-May-19
Citgo
11.500% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien) NR
1-Jul-17
Coffeyville Resources
1-Apr-15
9.000% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien) NR
10.875%Sr Sec Nts (2nd Lien) NR
1-Apr-17
HollyFrontier Corp.
8.500%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Sep-16
9.875%
Sr Nts
NR
15-Jun-17
6.875%
Guar Nts
NR
15-Nov-18
Northern Tier Energy
10.500% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien) NR
1-Dec-17
PBF Energy
8.250% Sr Sec Nts NR
15-Feb-20
Petroplus
1-May-14
6.750% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien) NR
7.000% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien) NR
1-May-17
15-Sep-19
9.375% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien) NR
Tesoro Corporation
6.250%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Nov-12
6.625%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Nov-15
6.500%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Jun-17
9.750%
Sr Nts
NR
1-Jun-19
United Refining
10.500% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien) NR
28-Feb-18
Western Refining
11.250% Sr Sec Nts NR
15-Jun-17
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

31

Ratings
Moody's
S&P

Amount
Outst.

Recent Quotes
Bid
YTW
Spread

Next Call Date


Date
Price

Current
Yield

MTD
Total
Return

YTD
Total
Return

LTM
EBITDA

Capacity
Kbds

LTM
FCF

Balance
Sheet
Liquidity

Debt/
EBITDA

EBITDA/
Interest
Expense

Debt/
Complex.
Barrel

Debt/
EV

$288.0

83

$233.4

$8.1

0.7x

7.1x

$383.8

na

B2/B

$216.5 109 1/2 7.28%

714bp

15-Oct-12

106 3/4

12.33%

-0.89%

8.68%

B3/B

$400.0 104 1/2 8.26%

738bp

1-May-15

104 11/16

8.97%

0.75%

10.27%

Ba2/BB+

$300.0 112 1/4 7.78%

745bp

1-Jul-14

105 3/4

10.24%

0.55%

4.50%

Ba2/BB
B1/B+

$447.6
$222.8

5.72%
6.17%

543bp
600bp

1-Apr-13
1-Apr-13

104 1/2
108 5/32

8.49%
9.71%

-0.65%
-0.12%

2.33%
2.66%

$922.7
$922.7

185
185

$603.6
$603.6

$727.2
$727.2

0.9x
0.9x

20.4x
20.4x

$394.5
$394.5

28.8%
28.8%

Ba2/BB+
Ba2/BB+
Ba2/BB+

$200.0 106 1/2 2.86%


$291.8 111 1/2 3.86%
$150.0 104 1/2 5.74%

274bp
366bp
495bp

15-Sep-12
15-Jun-13
15-Nov-14

104 1/4
104 15/16
103 7/16

7.98%
8.86%
6.58%

0.50%
0.29%
0.68%

2.19%
3.40%
3.80%

$1,367.0
$1,367.0
$1,367.0

443
443
443

$510.7
$510.7
$510.7

$2,834.5
$2,834.5
$2,834.5

0.9x
0.9x
0.9x

17.5x
17.5x
17.5x

$226.6
$226.6
$226.6

21.0%
21.0%
21.0%

B1/BB-

$290.0

109

8.12%

732bp

1-Dec-13

107 7/8

9.63%

0.31%

4.58%

$400.9

74

$333.4

$255.6

1.3x

11.8x

$631.7

nm

Ba3/BB+

$650.0

102

7.81%

675bp

15-Feb-16

104 1/8

8.09%

0.27%

5.04%

$464.5

540

-$306.7

$125.1

2.4x

7.9x

$179.7

nm

C/D
C/D
C/D

$600.0
$600.0
$400.0

38
38
38

66.38%
33.07%
31.31%

0bp
0bp
0bp

1-May-12
1-May-12
15-Sep-15

101 11/16
103 1/2
104 11/16

17.76%
18.42%
24.67%

-1.30%
-1.30%
-1.30%

-37.40%
-25.11%
-28.79%

$505.0
$505.0
$505.0

667
667
667

$83.9
$83.9
$83.9

$741.0
$741.0
$741.0

3.4x
3.4x
3.4x

4.0x
4.0x
4.0x

$310.9
$310.9
$310.9

111.9%
111.9%
111.9%

2.51%
4.41%
5.79%
4.87%

236bp
427bp
528bp
456bp

1-Nov-12
1-Jun-12
1-Jun-14

101 8/77
103 1/4
104 7/8

6.13%
6.48%
6.37%
8.54%

0.20%
0.21%
-0.51%
0.38%

1.21%
2.29%
1.28%
4.07%

$1,480.0
$1,480.0
$1,480.0
$1,480.0

664
664
664
664

$871.0
$871.0
$871.0
$871.0

$1,792.6
$1,792.6
$1,792.6
$1,792.6

1.1x
1.1x
1.1x
1.1x

13.0x
13.0x
13.0x
13.0x

$264.1
$264.1
$264.1
$264.1

41.5%
41.5%
41.5%
41.5%

B3/B

$365.0 104 3/4 9.25%

841bp

28-Feb-15

105 1/4

10.02%

1.77%

14.61%

$106.7

70

$21.6

$226.8

3.3x

2.6x

$563.2

nm

B3/B+

$325.0

342bp

15-Jun-13

105 5/8

9.87%

0.32%

2.98%

$965.9

151

$690.6

$791.8

0.8x

8.0x

$641.7

37.6%

Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+

106
112

$299.0
102
$450.0 102 1/4
$473.0
102
$300.0 114 1/8

114

3.62%

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Food and Beverage Carla Casella, CFA (1-212) 270-6798
Coupon

Description

FOOD AND BEVERAGE


ARAMARK Corp.
5.000%
Sr Nts
8.500%
Sr Nts
L +350
Sr Nts
8.625%
Sr PIK Nts
1
Bumble Bee
9.000%
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
9.625%
Sr Toggle Nts
Chiquita Brands International
7.500%
Sr Nts
Constellation Brands, Inc.
8.375%
Sr Nts
7.250%
Sr Nts
7.250%
Sr Nts
Cott Corporation
8.375%
Sr Nts
8.125%
Sr Nts
C&S Group Enterprises
8.375%
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
Darling International
8.500%
Guar Nts
Dean Foods Company
7.000%
Sr Nts
6.900%
Sr Nts
9.750%
Sr Nts
Del Monte Foods Company
7.625%
Sr Nts
Dole Food Company
13.875%
Sr Sec Nts
8.000%
Sr Sec Nts
8.750%
Debs
JBS USA LLC
11.625%
Sr Nts
8.250%
Sr Nts
7.250%
Sr Nts
Michael Foods
9.750%
Sr Nts
Pilgrims Pride
7.875%
Guar Nts
Pinnacle Foods, Inc.
9.250%
Sr Nts
8.250%
Guar Nts
Sr Sub Nts
10.625%

Recommendation

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

NR
NR
NR
NR

1-Jun-12
1-Feb-15
1-Feb-15
1-May-16

B3/BB3/B
B3/B
B3/B-

$250.0
$1,280.0
$500.0
$600.0

100
102 1/2
98 1/2
102 1/4

4.91%
5.22%
4.70%
2.45%

485bp
505bp
407bp
241bp

nc
1-Feb-13
14-May-12
1-May-12

nc
100.00
100.00
102.00

$1,118.2
$1,118.2
$1,118.2
$1,118.2

2.6x
2.6x
2.6x
2.6x

1.9x
1.9x
1.9x
1.9x

5.2x
5.2x
5.2x
5.7x

na
na
na
na

NR
NR

15-Feb-17
15-Mar-18

B2/B
Caa1/CCC+

$575.1
$150.0

100 3/8
89 3/4

8.89%
12.10%

809bp
1102bp

15-Dec-14
15-Mar-14

104.00
104.81

$121.2
$121.2

1.9x
1.9x

1.8x
1.8x

5.7x
6.9x

na
na

Hold

1-Nov-14

Caa1/B-

$106.4

100 3/4

6.06%

592bp

1-Nov-12

100.00

$149.8

3.2x

1.6x

3.5x

6.2x

Hold
Hold
Hold

15-Dec-14
1-Sep-16
15-May-17

Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+

$500.0
$700.0
$700.0

112 3/4
110 1/2
110 3/4

3.33%
4.57%
4.84%

291bp
382bp
395bp

Make Whole
Make Whole
Make Whole

T+50
T+50
T+50

$871.1
$871.1
$871.1

4.8x
4.8x
4.8x

4.4x
4.4x
4.4x

3.5x
3.5x
3.5x

7.8x
7.8x
7.8x

NR
NR

15-Nov-17
1-Sep-18

B3/B
B3/B

$215.0
$375.0

108
107 7/8

5.58%
6.05%

534bp
530bp

15-Nov-13
1-Sep-14

104.19
104.06

$203.1
$203.1

3.6x
3.6x

3.0x
3.0x

2.5x
2.5x

5.1x
5.1x

NR

1-May-17

B1/BB-

$300.0

105

6.93%

625bp

1-May-14

104.19

$248.1

5.3x

4.0x

2.6x

na

Buy

15-Dec-18

Ba3/BB+

$250.0

111 1/2

5.31%

489bp

15-Dec-14

104.25

$393.5

10.6x

9.0x

0.6x

5.8x

Hold
Hold
Hold

1-Jun-16
15-Oct-17
15-Dec-18

B2/BB2/BB2/B-

$500.0
$142.0
$400.0

102 1/2
100 1/2
111

6.30%
6.79%
6.85%

560bp
580bp
643bp

Make Whole
nc
15-Dec-14

T+50
nc
104.88

$767.4
$767.4
$767.4

3.0x
3.0x
3.0x

1.7x
1.7x
1.7x

4.9x
4.9x
4.9x

7.8x
7.8x
7.8x

Hold

15-Feb-19

B3/CCC+

$1,300.0

97 3/4

8.06%

676bp

15-Feb-14

103.81

$542.9

2.3x

1.9x

6.9x

na

Hold
Buy
Sell

15-Mar-14
1-Oct-16
15-Jul-13

B2/B+
B2/B+
B3/B-

$174.9
$315.0
$155.0

114 1/4
104 1/4
107

3.46%
6.11%
2.98%

323bp
573bp
278bp

15-Mar-13
1-Oct-12
nc

106.94
104.00
nc

$375.8
$375.8
$375.8

2.7x
2.7x
2.7x

2.1x
2.1x
2.1x

3.6x
3.6x
4.1x

6.5x
6.5x
6.5x

NR
NR
NR

1-May-14
1-Feb-20
1-Jun-21

B1/BB
B1/BB
B1/BB

$700.0
$700.0
$650.0

115 1/4
101 3/4
95

3.79%
7.86%
8.03%

349bp
681bp
621bp

nc
1-Feb-15
1-Jun-15

nc
106.19
105.44

$1,090.5
$1,090.5
$1,090.5

9.3x
9.3x
9.3x

7.5x
7.5x
7.5x

2.7x
2.7x
2.7x

na
na
na

NR

15-Jul-18

Caa1/CCC+

$430.0

109 1/4

7.18%

665bp

15-Jul-14

104.88

$222.4

2.1x

2.1x

5.6x

na

Hold

15-Dec-18

Caa1/B-

$500.0

98 3/4

8.12%

686bp

15-Dec-14

103.94

($145.3)

nm

nm

nm

nm

Hold
Hold
Buy

1-Apr-15
1-Sep-17
1-Apr-17

Caa1/CCC+
Caa1/CCC+
Caa1/CCC+

$625.0
$400.0
$199.0

102 1/2
108 1/8
105 1/4

6.51%
6.10%
8.42%

633bp
535bp
825bp

1-Apr-13
1-Sep-13
1-Apr-13

100.00
106.19
103.54

$445.1
$445.1
$445.1

2.1x
2.1x
2.1x

1.6x
1.6x
1.6x

5.4x
5.4x
5.9x

na
na
na

Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.


1. Financial data is available and disclosed through Intralinks only. Please contact us with any questions.

32

Amount
Outstanding
($ mn)

Bid

Recent Quotes
YTW
Spread

Next Call Data


Date
Price

LTM
EBITDA

LTM EBITDA/
Cash Interest

(LTM EBITDACapex)/
Cash Interest

Net Debt/
LTM
TEV/
EBITDA LTM EBITDA

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Food and Beverage (continued) Carla Casella, CFA (1-212) 270-6798
Coupon

Description

Recommendation

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

NR

15-Feb-22

B1/B+

$775.0

103 1/2

6.79%

526bp

15-Feb-17

103.69

$234.4

3.3x

3.3x

4.0x

8.7x

Hold
Hold
Hold

15-Jul-14
15-May-13
1-Jul-17

Ba2/BBBB2/BB
B2/BB

$612.0
$160.0
$500.0

116 7/8
105 1/2
113

2.25%
2.55%
4.89%

191bp
237bp
397bp

Make Whole
nc
nc

T+50
nc
nc

$1,133.6
$1,133.6
$1,133.6

6.1x
6.1x
6.1x

4.7x
4.7x
4.7x

0.1x
1.6x
1.6x

4.7x
4.7x
4.7x

Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold

1-Mar-14
1-Apr-16
1-May-18
15-Jan-28

Ba1/BBBBa1/BBBBa2/BB+
Ba2/BB+

$810.0
$638.0
$121.0
$18.0

115 1/2
113
111
99

2.03%
3.09%
4.88%
7.10%

175bp
242bp
376bp
475bp

Make Whole
Make Whole
nc
nc

T+50
T+30
nc
nc

$1,552.0
$1,552.0
$1,552.0
$1,552.0

7.2x
7.2x
7.2x
7.2x

4.1x
4.1x
4.1x
4.1x

0.4x
0.4x
0.9x
0.9x

5.3x
5.3x
5.3x
5.3x

Next Call Data


Date
Price

LTM
EBITDA

LTM EBITDA/
Net Int. + 1/3 Rent

(LTM EBITDACapex)/
Int + 1/3 rent

Post Holdings, Inc.


7.375%
Sr Nts
Smithfield Foods, Inc.
10.000%
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
7.750%
Sr Nts
7.750%
Sr Nts
Tyson Foods
10.500%
Sr Nts
6.600%
Sr Nts
7.000%
Sr Nts
7.000%
Sr Nts

Amount
Outstanding
($ mn)

Bid

Recent Quotes
YTW
Spread

Next Call Data


Date
Price

LTM
EBITDA

LTM EBITDA/
Cash Interest

(LTM EBITDACapex)/
Cash Interest

Net Debt/
LTM
TEV/
EBITDA LTM EBITDA

Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.


1. 10.5% TSN notes are guaranteed by all tomestic subsidiaries, while the 6.6% notes are only guaranteed by beef and pork subs.

Restaurants Carla Casella, CFA (1-212) 270-6798


Coupon

Description

RESTAURANTS 1
Burger King
9.875%
Sr Nts
0.000%/11.000% Sr Disc Nts
CKE Restaurants
11.375%
Sr Sec Nts (2nd Lien)
11.250%
Sr Toggle Nts
Dave and Busters
11.000%
Sr Nts
0.000%
Sr Nts
DineEquity Inc.
9.500%
Sr Nts
Logans Roadhouse
10.750%
Sr Sec Nts (2nd Lien)
Outback Steakhouse Inc.
10.000%
Sr Nts
Wendys
10.000%
Sr Nts
Sr Nts
6.200%
7.000%
Debs
1. Credit stats are rent adjusted.
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

33

Recommendation

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

Amount
Outstanding
($ mn)

NR
NR

15-Oct-18
15-Apr-19

B3/BCaa1/CCC+

$800.0
$685.0

112 3/4
75 1/4

6.15%
7.85%

576bp
737bp

15-Oct-14
15-Apr-15

104.94
94.79

$585.0
$585.0

3.0x
3.0x

2.7x
2.7x

4.9x
5.5x

na
na

NR
NR

15-Jul-18
14-Mar-16

B2/BCaa1/CCC

$503.6
$223.2

114 1/8
104 1/2

6.86%
10.01%

652bp
954bp

15-Jul-14
14-Mar-13

105.69
105.25

$165.1
$165.1

2.3x
2.3x

1.7x
1.7x

4.2x
5.2x

na
na

NR
NR

1-Jun-18
15-Feb-16

Caa1/CCC+
NR/NR

$200.0
$180.8

106 7/8
67

8.96%
10.51%

826bp
996bp

1-Jun-14
15-Aug-13

105.50
78.84

$98.4
$98.4

4.3x
4.3x

1.5x
1.5x

4.7x
5.5x

na
na

NR

30-Oct-18

B3/CCC+

$785.3

108 1/4

7.33%

655bp

30-Oct-14

104.75

$311.5

2.5x

2.5x

6.0x

8.1x

NR

15-Oct-17

B3/B-

$355.0

96 1/2

11.63%

1064bp

15-Oct-13

108.06

$72.6

2.3x

1.2x

5.8x

na

NR

15-Jun-15

Caa3/CCC

$248.1

103 1/4

5.09%

502bp

15-Jun-12

102.50

$345.5

4.2x

3.2x

4.7x

na

NR
NR
NR

15-Jul-16
15-Jun-14
15-Dec-25

B3/B+
Caa1/BCaa1/B-

$565.0
$225.0
$100.0

109 1/4
106 1/4
89 1/8

2.61%
3.19%
8.35%

253bp
286bp
611bp

15-Jul-12
Make Whole
nc

107.50
T+25
nc

$331.1
$331.1
$331.1

2.8x
2.8x
2.8x

1.8x
1.8x
1.8x

3.8x
3.8x
3.8x

8.7x
8.7x
8.7x

Bid

Recent Quotes
YTW

Spread

Adj Net Debt/


LTM
TEV/
EBITDAR LTM EBITDA

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Gaming Susan Berliner (1-212) 270-3085

Coupon

Description

Amount
Outstanding
($ mn)

Price

Hold

15-Apr-21

B3/B+

$800

104.00

6.68%

558bp

15-Apr-15

105.63

$1,215

Hold
Buy
Hold

15-Apr-14
1-Feb-16
1-Dec-18

Caa1/CCC+
Caa1/CCC+
B3/B

$216
$241
$500

99.50
96.00
103.00

7.02%
8.37%
8.33%

673bp
773bp
753bp

1-Feb-13
1-Dec-14

100.69
104.56

Hold
Buy

15-Jan-16
15-Jan-17

B1/B
Caa2/CCC

$900
$633

104.75
109.50

5.73%
7.73%

529bp
729bp

15-Jan-14
15-Jan-14

103.81
105.38

Buy
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Buy
Hold
Hold
Hold
NR

15-Dec-13
1-Jun-15
15-Dec-15
1-Feb-16
1-Jun-16
1-Jun-17
1-Oct-17
15-Apr-18
15-Dec-18
15-Feb-20

Caa3/CCC
Caa3/CCC
NR/CCC
Caa3/CCC
Caa3/CCC
B2/B
Caa3/CCC
Caa2/CCC
NR/CCC
B2/B

$125
$365
$188
$471
$247
$2,095
$154
$750
$3,705
$1,250

91.00
75.00
89.50
85.00
63.00
108.50
52.00
83.25
73.50
101.00

11.46%
16.11%
13.73%
16.18%
20.11%
8.05%
20.90%
17.35%
16.74%
8.28%

1120bp
1560bp
1312bp
1554bp
1940bp
773bp
1992bp
1625bp
1548bp
721bp

Buy
Hold

1-Mar-14
15-Mar-19

Caa1/CCC+
B3/B-

$357
$300

99.25
101.50

7.43%
7.38%

Sell
Sell

15-Oct-15
15-Aug-18

B2/BBB2/BB-

$398
$394

92.50
90.00

Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Buy
Buy
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
NR
Hold
NR

1-Sep-12
15-Nov-13
27-Feb-14
15-May-14
15-Jul-15
1-Apr-16
1-Jun-16
1-Nov-16
15-Jan-17
15-Nov-17
1-Mar-18
1-Feb-19
15-Mar-20
15-Mar-22

B3/BBa2/B+
B3/BBa2/B+
B3/BB3/BB3/BB3/BB3/BBa2/B+
B3/BB3/BBa2/B+
B3/B-

$535
$750
$509
$650
$872
$238
$733
$500
$743
$850
$475
$850
$845
$1,000

101.50
116.00
102.75
113.00
102.25
101.25
102.75
111.00
102.50
113.00
118.00
107.00
110.63
101.00

Recommendation

Ameristar Casinos
7.500%
Sr Nts
Boyd Gaming Corporation
6.750%
Sr Sub Nts
7.125%
Sr Sub Nts
9.125%
Sr Nts
CityCenter Holdings, LLC
7.625%
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
10.750% Sr Sec Toggle Nts (2nd Lien)
Harrahs Operating Company
5.375%
Sr Nts
5.625%
Bds
10.000%
Sr Sec Nts (2nd Lien)
10.750%
Guar Nts
6.500%
Sr Nts
11.250%
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
5.750%
Bds
12.750%
Sr Sec Nts (2nd Lien)
10.000%
Sr Sec Nts (2nd Lien)
8.500%
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
Isle of Capri Casinos
7.000%
Sr Sub Nts
7.750%
Sr Nts
Marina District Finance (Borgata)
9.500%
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
9.875%
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
MGM Resorts
6.750%
Sr Nts
13.000%
Sr Sec Nts
5.875%
Sr Nts
10.375%
Sr Sec Nts
6.625%
Sr Nts
6.875%
Sr Nts
7.500%
Sr Nts
10.000%
Guar Nts
7.625%
Sr Nts
11.125%
Sr Sec Nts
11.375%
Sr Nts
8.625%
Sr Nts
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
9.000%
7.750%
Sr Nts
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

34

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

Recent Quotes
YTW
Spread

Next Call Data


Date
Price

Total Debt/
LTM
EBITDA

LTM
EBITDA/
Int. Exp.

$365

5.3x

3.7x

$1,605
$1,605
$1,605

$392
$392
$392

7.7x
7.7x
5.5x

2.0x
2.0x
2.0x

$1,081
$1,081

$212
$212

5.7x
8.9x

0.8x
0.8x

$1,513
$1,513
$1,513
$1,513
$1,513
$1,513
$1,513
$1,513
$1,513
$1,513

12.6x
12.6x
9.9x
10.2x
12.6x
6.3x
12.6x
9.9x
9.9x
6.3x

1.0x
1.0x
1.0x
1.0x
1.0x
1.0x
1.0x
1.0x
1.0x
1.0x

LTM
Revenue

LTM
Adjusted
EBITDA

15-Dec-12
1-Feb-13

105.00
102.69

1-Jun-13

105.63

15-Dec-13
15-Feb-16

105.00
104.25

$6,814
$6,814
$6,814
$6,814
$6,814
$6,814
$6,814
$6,814
$6,814
$6,814

715bp
652bp

15-Mar-15

103.88

$1,010
$1,010

$192
$192

6.1x
4.2x

2.6x
2.6x

12.20%
12.18%

1162bp
1100bp

15-Oct-13
15-Aug-14

104.75
104.94

$730
$730

$158
$158

5.2x
5.2x

1.9x
1.9x

2.69%
2.60%
4.32%
3.81%
5.85%
6.51%
6.72%
7.12%
6.99%
3.82%
7.52%
7.29%
5.35%
7.60%

257bp
235bp
404bp
350bp
532bp
584bp
602bp
634bp
617bp
363bp
645bp
601bp
506bp
560bp

$7,841
$7,841
$7,841
$7,841
$7,841
$7,841
$7,841
$7,841
$7,841
$7,841
$7,841
$7,841
$7,841
$7,841

$1,142
$1,142
$1,142
$1,142
$1,142
$1,142
$1,142
$1,142
$1,142
$1,142
$1,142
$1,142
$1,142
$1,142

11.2x
3.3x
11.2x
3.3x
11.2x
11.2x
11.2x
11.2x
11.2x
3.3x
11.2x
11.2x
3.3x
11.2x

1.1x
1.1x
1.1x
1.1x
1.1x
1.1x
1.1x
1.1x
1.1x
1.1x
1.1x
1.1x
1.1x
1.1x

15-May-13

105.56

15-Mar-14

104.50

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Gaming Susan Berliner (1-212) 270-3085

Coupon

Description

Amount
Outstanding
($ mn)

Bid

Sell
Sell
Sell
NR
Sell
NR

15-Feb-13
15-Aug-14
15-Feb-15
15-Dec-16
1-Nov-17
15-Sep-18

Caa3/CCC
Caa3/CCC
Caa3/CCC
NR/CCC
Caa3/CCC
NR/CCC

$16
$225
$10
$418
$200
$344

93.00
75.00
75.00
84.25
101.50
72.50

15.39%
21.25%
18.62%
15.29%
10.97%
18.48%

1522bp
2090bp
1816bp
1448bp
1038bp
1728bp

Hold

1-Aug-19

Caa1/B-

$568

98.00

11.91%

Sell

15-Aug-19

B1/BB

$325

111.00

Sell
Buy
NR

1-Aug-17
15-May-20
1-Apr-22

B1/BBB3/B
B3/B

$450
$350
$325

NR
NR
NR

15-Jun-16
15-Sep-18
15-Jun-19

B1/BBB1/BBB1/BB-

Hold

1-Feb-15

Hold
Hold
Hold
NR

1-Nov-17
1-May-20
15-Aug-20
15-Mar-22

Recommendation

Mohegan Tribal Gaming


6.125%
Sr Nts
7.125%
Sr Sub Nts
6.875%
Sr Sub Nts
10.500%
Sr Sec Nts (3rd Lien)
11.500%
Sr Sec Nts (2nd Lien)
11.000%
Sr Sub Nts
MTR Gaming
11.500% Sr Sec Toggle Nts (2nd Lien)
Penn National Gaming, Inc.
8.750%
Sr Sub Nts
Pinnacle Entertainment
8.625%
Sr Nts
8.750%
Sr Sub Nts
7.750%
Sr Sub Nts
Scientific Games
7.875%
Sr Sub Nts
8.125%
Sr Sub Nts
9.250%
Sr Sub Nts
Snoqualmie Entertainment
9.125%
Sr Sec Nts
Wynn Las Vegas
7.875%
1st Mtg Nts
7.875%
1st Mtg Nts
7.750%
1st Mtg Nts
5.375%
1st Mtg Nts
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

35

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

Recent Quotes
YTW
Spread

Next Call Data


Date
Price

LTM
Revenue

LTM
Adjusted
EBITDA

Total Debt/
LTM
EBITDA

LTM
EBITDA/
Int. Exp.

$1,435
$1,435
$1,435
$1,435
$1,435
$1,435

$266
$266
$266
$266
$266
$266

5.1x
7.2x
7.2x
4.7x
3.1x
7.2x

1.6x
1.6x
1.6x
1.6x
1.6x
1.6x

106.00

$428

$81

7.0x

1.8x

15-Aug-14

104.38

$2,742

$741

2.8x

9.5x

442bp
635bp
588bp

1-Aug-13
15-May-15
1-Apr-17

104.31
104.38
103.88

$1,158
$1,158
$1,158

$262
$262
$262

2.9x
5.5x
5.5x

2.7x
2.7x
2.7x

5.87%
5.96%
6.26%

555bp
540bp
593bp

15-Jun-12
15-Sep-14
15-Jun-14

103.94
104.06
104.63

$879
$879
$879

$263
$263
$263

5.3x
5.3x
5.3x

2.5x
2.5x
2.5x

100.25

9.01%

857bp

$203

$85

4.5x

2.4x

109.00
109.00
109.00
95.75

4.28%
5.81%
5.81%
5.95%

404bp
531bp
526bp
395bp

$1,481
$1,481
$1,481
$1,481

$412
$412
$412
$412

7.6x
7.6x
7.6x
7.6x

2.2x
2.2x
2.2x
2.2x

15-Aug-12
15-Feb-13

100.00
100.00

1-Nov-13

105.75

1051bp

1-Aug-15

5.44%

508bp

109.00
108.75
103.75

4.64%
6.85%
7.20%

$200
$250
$350

104.00
108.25
110.00

Caa1/B

$200

NR/BBBNR/BBBBa2/BBBBa2/BBB-

$500
$382
$1,320
$900

1-Nov-13
1-May-15
15-Aug-15
15-Mar-17

103.94
103.94
103.88
102.69

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Healthcare David Common, CFA (1-212) 270-5260

Coupon

Desc.

HOSPITALS AND RELATED


Air Medical Group
9.250%
Sr Nts
Capella Healthcare
9.250%
Sr Nts
Community Health Systems Inc.
L + 350
TLB - Ext (Old)
L + 350
TLB - Ext (New)
L + 225
TLB - NonExt
8.875%
Sr Nts
8.000%
Sr Nts
Emergency Medical Services
L + 375
TLB
8.125%
Sr Nts
HealthSouth Corporation
7.250%
Sr Nts
8.125%
Sr Nts
7.750%
Sr Nts
HCA, Inc.
L + 125
TLA1
L + 250
TLA2
L + 225
TLB1
L + 325
TLB2
L + 325
TLB3
8.500%
1st Lien
6.500%
1st Lien
7.875%
1st Lien
7.250%
1st Lien
5.875%
1st Lien
9.875%
2nd Lien
6.950%
Sr Nts
6.300%
Sr Nts
6.250%
Sr Nts
6.750%
Sr Nts
5.750%
Sr Nts
6.375%
Sr Nts
6.500%
Sr Nts
8.000%
Sr Nts
7.500%
Sr Nts
7.690%
Sr Nts
7.500%
Sr Nts
7.750%
Sr Nts

Recom.

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

NR

1-Nov-18

B2/B

$545

$101.50

8.84%

806bp

1-Nov-16

1-Nov-14

$104.63

$102

2.3x

5.5x

69%

NR

1-Jul-17

B3/B

$500

$100.75

9.02%

831bp

1-Jul-16

1-Jul-13

$106.94

$96

1.9x

5.2x

79%

NR
NR
NR
Hold
NR

1/25/2017
1/25/2017
7/25/2014
15-Jul-15
15-Nov-19

Ba3/BB
Ba3/BB
Ba3/BB
B3/B
B3/B

$1481
$1532
$2205
$1781
$2000

$99.00
$99.00
$99.25
$102.75
$102.63

4.20%
4.20%
3.06%
6.41%
7.42%

373bp
373bp
259bp
632bp
641bp

na
na
na
15-Jul-12
15-Nov-17

na
na
na
15-Jul-12
15-Nov-15

na
na
na
$102.22
$104.00

$1,828
$1,828
$1,828
$1,828
$1,828

2.5x
2.5x
2.5x
2.5x
2.5x

3.3x
3.3x
3.3x
4.8x
4.8x

54%
54%
54%
78%
78%

NR
NR

5/25/2018
1-Jun-19

B1/B+
Caa1/B-

$1417
$950

$99.50
$100.25

5.35%
8.06%

385bp
716bp

na
1-Jun-17

na
1-Jun-14

na
$106.09

$345
$345

2.0x
2.0x

4.1x
6.9x

48%
81%

Hold
Hold
Hold

1-Oct-18
15-Feb-20
15-Sep-22

B2/B+
B2/B+
B2/B+

$335
$290
$310

$105.63
$109.25
$107.25

5.80%
5.87%
6.35%

503bp
541bp
538bp

1-Oct-16
15-Feb-15
15-Sep-17

1-Oct-14
15-Feb-15
15-Sep-15

$103.63
$104.06
$103.88

$464
$464
$464

3.5x
3.5x
3.5x

2.9x
2.9x
2.9x

39%
39%
39%

NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
Buy
NR
Buy
Buy
NR
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
NR
NR
Buy
Buy
Buy

11/17/2012
5/2/2016
11/17/2013
3/31/2017
5/1/2018
15-Apr-19
15-Feb-20
15-Feb-20
15-Sep-20
15-Mar-22
15-Feb-17
1-May-12
1-Oct-12
15-Feb-13
15-Jul-13
15-Mar-14
15-Jan-15
15-Feb-16
1-Oct-18
15-Feb-22
15-Jun-25
6-Nov-33
15-May-21

Ba3/BB
Ba3/BB
Ba3/BB
Ba3/BB
Ba3/BB
Ba3/BB
Ba3/BB
Ba3/BB
Ba3/BB
Ba3/BB
B2/BB
B3/BB3/BB3/BB3/BB3/BB3/BB3/BB3/BB3/BB3/BB3/BB3/B-

$414
$564
$1689
$2000
$2373
$1500
$3000
$1250
$1400
$1350
$202
$402
$500
$500
$500
$500
$750
$1000
$500
$2000
$291
$250
$1525

$100.25
$98.50
$100.00
$98.75
$98.50
$110.63
$103.75
$109.25
$108.25
$99.25
$108.50
$100.00
$100.75
$101.50
$103.50
$103.50
$104.75
$105.00
$108.25
$104.50
$96.00
$92.50
$102.00

1.30%
3.41%
2.72%
4.00%
4.00%
4.90%
5.89%
5.21%
5.32%
5.97%
5.17%
6.74%
4.62%
4.38%
3.84%
3.83%
4.51%
5.05%
6.42%
6.86%
8.19%
8.25%
7.36%

83bp
294bp
225bp
353bp
353bp
461bp
437bp
486bp
485bp
397bp
500bp
670bp
449bp
422bp
364bp
355bp
408bp
440bp
521bp
488bp
599bp
556bp
612bp

na
na
na
na
na
15-Apr-14
15-Feb-20
15-Aug-14
15-Mar-15
15-Mar-22
15-Feb-13
1-May-12
1-Oct-12
15-Feb-13
15-Jul-13
15-Mar-14
15-Jan-15
15-Feb-16
1-Oct-18
15-Feb-22
15-Jun-25
6-Nov-33
15-Nov-18

na
na
na
na
na
15-Apr-14
nc
15-Aug-14
15-Mar-15
nc
15-Feb-13
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
15-Nov-15

na
na
na
na
na
$104.25
nc
$103.94
$103.63
nc
$104.94
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
$103.88

$6,287
$6,287
$6,287
$6,287
$6,287
$6,287
$6,287
$6,287
$6,287
$6,287
$6,287
$6,287
$6,287
$6,287
$6,287
$6,287
$6,287
$6,287
$6,287
$6,287
$6,287
$6,287
$6,287

3.2x
3.2x
3.2x
3.2x
3.2x
3.2x
3.2x
3.2x
3.2x
3.2x
3.2x
3.2x
3.2x
3.2x
3.2x
3.2x
3.2x
3.2x
3.2x
3.2x
3.2x
3.2x
3.2x

2.9x
2.9x
2.9x
2.9x
2.9x
2.9x
2.9x
2.9x
2.9x
2.9x
3.0x
4.3x
4.3x
4.3x
4.3x
4.3x
4.3x
4.3x
4.3x
4.3x
4.3x
4.3x
4.5x

48%
48%
48%
48%
48%
48%
48%
48%
48%
48%
48%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
74%

Note: EBITDA is Adjusted EBITDA. Interest Expense is based on LTM values.


Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

36

Current

Bid

Recent Quotes
Yield
Spread

YTW
Date

Next Call Data


Date
Price

EBITDA
LTM

EBITDA/
Interest
LTM

Debt/
EBITDA
LTM

Debt/
TEV

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Healthcare David Common, CFA (1-212) 270-5260

Coupon

Desc.

Health Management Associates


L + 350
TLB
6.125%
Sr Sec Nts
7.375%
Sr Nts
Iasis Healthcare
L + 375
TLB
8.375%
Sr Nts
Kindred Healthcare
L + 375
TLB
8.250%
Sr Nts
Lifepoint Hospitals
6.625%
Guar Nts
MedAssets
L + 375
TLB
8.000%
Sr Nts
Rural/Metro
10.125%
Sr Nts
Select Medical
L + 375
TLB
7.625%
Sr Sub Nts
6.494%
Sr HoldCo FRN
Tenet Healthcare
10.000%
Sr Sec Nts
6.250%
Sr Sec Nts
8.875%
Sr Sec Nts
7.375%
Sr Nts
9.250%
Sr Nts
8.000%
Sr Nts
6.875%
Sr Nts
Universal Health Services
L + 225
TLA
L + 275
TLB
7.125%
Sr Sec Nts
7.000%
Sr Nts
Vanguard Health Systems
8.000%
Sr Nts
7.750%
Sr Nts
DISTRIBUTORS
Omnicare
7.750%
Sr Sub Nts
VWR International
10.250%
Sr Toggle Nts

Recom.

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

NR
Hold
Hold

11/18/2018
15-Apr-16
15-Jan-20

Ba3/BBNR/BBB3/B-

$1397
$400
$875

$100.25
$104.25
$101.88

4.45%
4.94%
6.97%

345bp
426bp
593bp

na
15-Apr-16
15-Jan-18

na
nc
15-Jan-16

na
nc
$103.69

$893
$893
$893

4.0x
4.0x
4.0x

2.9x
2.9x
4.0x

49%
49%
67%

NR
Buy

5/3/2018
15-May-19

Ba3/B
Caa1/CCC+

$1010
$850

$100.25
$95.38

4.95%
9.28%

370bp
793bp

na
15-May-19

na
15-May-14

na
$106.28

$322
$322

2.8x
2.8x

3.2x
5.8x

53%
97%

NR
NR

6/1/2018
1-Jun-19

Ba3/B+
B3/B-

$695
$550

$95.00
$86.50

6.26%
11.03%

476bp
967bp

na
1-Jun-19

na
1-Jun-14

na
$106.19

$445
$445

4.2x
4.2x

2.2x
3.4x

34%
53%

NR

1-Oct-20

Ba1/BB-

$400

$104.50

5.78%

457bp

1-Oct-18

1-Oct-15

$103.31

$550

5.1x

2.9x

48%

NR
NR

11/16/2016
15-Nov-18

Ba3/BBB3/B-

$577
$325

$100.50
$105.50

5.12%
6.59%

362bp
580bp

na
15-Nov-16

na
15-Nov-14

na
$104.00

$184
$184

2.6x
2.6x

3.1x
4.9x

36%
56%

NR

15-Jul-19

Caa1/CCC+

$200

$93.50

11.46%

1007bp

15-Jul-19

15-Jul-15

$105.06

$89

2.1x

6.0x

70%

NR
Buy
Buy

6/1/2018
1-Feb-15
9/15/2015

Ba3/BBCaa1/CCC+
Caa1/CCC+

$844
$345
na

$97.00
$98.75
na

6.10%
8.13%
na

435bp
768bp
na

na
1-Feb-15
na

na
1-Feb-13
10-May-12

na
$100.00
$100.00

$386
$386
$386

3.9x
3.9x
3.9x

2.3x
3.2x
3.6x

35%
48%
55%

Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy

1-May-18
1-Nov-18
1-Jul-19
1-Feb-13
1-Feb-15
1-Aug-20
15-Nov-31

B1/BBB1/BBB1/BBCaa1/CCC+
Caa1/CCC+
Caa1/CCC+
Caa1/CCC+

$714
$900
$925
$216
$474
$600
$429

$114.00
$103.00
$111.38
$102.50
$110.25
$100.75
$84.25

5.05%
5.69%
5.27%
4.12%
5.25%
7.84%
8.54%

475bp
447bp
493bp
396bp
480bp
667bp
597bp

1-May-14
1-Nov-18
1-Jul-14
1-Feb-13
1-Feb-15
1-Aug-18
15-Nov-31

1-May-14
nc
1-Jul-14
nc
nc
1-Aug-15
nc

$105.00
nc
$104.44
nc
nc
$104.00
nc

$1,161
$1,161
$1,161
$1,161
$1,161
$1,161
$1,161

3.1x
3.1x
3.1x
3.1x
3.1x
3.1x
3.1x

2.3x
2.3x
2.3x
3.9x
3.9x
3.9x
3.9x

36%
36%
36%
62%
62%
62%
62%

NR
NR
NR
NR

11/15/2015
11/15/2016
30-Jun-16
1-Oct-18

Ba2/BB+
Ba2/BB+
Ba2/BB+
B1/B+

$1017
$1455
$400
$250

$100.25
$100.38
$112.75
$106.75

2.64%
3.66%
3.81%
5.28%

217bp
266bp
310bp
451bp

na
na
30-Jun-16
1-Oct-16

na
na
nc
1-Oct-14

na
na
nc
$103.50

$1,165
$1,165
$1,165
$1,165

5.8x
5.8x
5.8x
5.8x

1.0x
1.0x
3.1x
3.1x

15%
15%
48%
48%

Hold
NR

1-Feb-18
1-Feb-19

B3/BB3/B-

$1175
$725

$100.50
$98.50

7.84%
8.04%

720bp
675bp

1-Feb-16
1-Feb-19

1-Feb-14
1-Feb-14

$104.00
$105.81

$544
$544

2.9x
2.9x

5.0x
5.0x

83%
83%

Hold

1-Jun-20

Ba3/BB

$550

$109.50

5.55%

504bp

1-Jun-15

1-Jun-15

$103.88

$614

4.5x

1.6x

18%

NR

15-Jul-15

Caa1/B-

$713

$103.00

7.66%

745bp

15-Jul-13

15-Jul-12

$102.56

$395

2.0x

5.7x

63%

Note: EBITDA is Adjusted EBITDA. Interest Expense is based on LTM values.


Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

37

Current

Bid

Recent Quotes
Yield
Spread

YTW
Date

Next Call Data


Date
Price

EBITDA
LTM

EBITDA/
Interest
LTM

Debt/
EBITDA
LTM

Debt/
TEV

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Healthcare David Common, CFA (1-212) 270-5260

Coupon

Desc.

ALTERNATE SITE PROVIDERS


Alliance Imaging
8.000%
Sr Nts
American Renal Holdings
8.375%
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
9.750%
Sr PIK Nts
CRC Health
10.750%
Sr Sub Nts
Davita
L + 275
TLA
L + 300
TLB
6.375%
Sr Nts
6.625%
Sr Nts
Fresenius Medical Care
6.875%
Sr Nts
6.500%
Sr Nts
5.625%
Sr Nts
5.750%
Sr Nts
5.875%
Sr Nts
Fresenius SE
5.000%
Sr Nts
8.750%
Sr Nts
9.000%
Sr Nts
Gentiva Health Services
11.500%
Sr Nts
Hanger Orthopedic Group
7.125%
Sr Nts
National Mentor
L + 525
TLB
12.500%
Sr Nts
OnCure Medical Group
11.750%
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
Radiation Therapy
9.875%
Sr Sub Nts
RadNet
10.375%
Sr Nts
Res-Care
10.750%
Sr Nts
Skilled Healthcare Group
11.000%
Sr Sub Nts
Surgical Care Affiliates
L + 400
TLB
9.625%
Sr Toggle Nts
10.000%
Sr Sub Nts

Recom.

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

NR

1-Dec-16

B3/B-

$190

$74.25

16.10%

1530bp

1-Dec-16

1-Dec-12

$104.00

$133

2.9x

4.8x

89%

NR
NR

15-May-18
1-Mar-16

B2/B
Caa2/CCC+

$250
$149

$106.00
$105.25

6.20%
8.32%

570bp
786bp

15-May-15
1-Mar-15

15-May-13
1-Mar-13

$104.19
$105.00

$69
$69

3.3x
3.3x

3.8x
5.4x

51%
72%

NR

1-Feb-16

Caa1/CCC

$177

$91.25

13.77%

1314bp

1-Feb-16

nc

$103.58

$105

2.3x

5.7x

76%

NR
NR
NR
NR

10/20/2015
10/20/2016
1-Nov-18
1-Nov-20

Ba2/BB
Ba2/BB
B2/B
B2/B

$938
$1728
$775
$775

$100.50
$100.75
$103.50
$103.75

3.04%
4.31%
5.49%
5.82%

257bp
281bp
471bp
483bp

na
na
1-Nov-16
1-Nov-17

na
na
1-Nov-13
1-Nov-14

na
na
$104.78
$104.97

$1,359
$1,359
$1,359
$1,359

5.8x
5.8x
5.8x
5.8x

2.0x
2.0x
3.2x
3.2x

26%
26%
40%
40%

NR
NR
NR
NR
NR

15-Jul-17
15-Sep-18
31-Jul-19
15-Feb-21
31-Jan-22

Ba2/BB+
Ba2/BB+
Ba2/BB+
Ba2/BB+
Ba2/BB+

$500
$400
$800
$650
$700

$109.00
$107.25
$101.00
$101.25
$101.00

4.91%
5.16%
5.46%
5.57%
5.74%

398bp
396bp
406bp
381bp
376bp

15-Jul-17
15-Sep-18
31-Jul-19
15-Feb-21
31-Jan-22

nc
nc
nc
nc
nc

na
na
na
na
na

$2,575
$2,575
$2,575
$2,575
$2,575

13.3x
13.3x
13.3x
13.3x
13.3x

3.4x
3.4x
3.4x
3.4x
3.4x

31%
31%
31%
31%
31%

Hold
Hold
Hold

31-Jan-13
15-Jul-15
15-Jul-15

Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+

$500
$275
$500

$102.00
$116.00
$114.88

2.42%
3.49%
4.06%

222bp
319bp
353bp

31-Jan-13
15-Jul-15
15-Jul-15

nc
nc
nc

na
na
na

$4,507
$4,507
$4,507

5.5x
5.5x
5.5x

2.9x
2.9x
2.9x

39%
39%
39%

NR

1-Sep-18

Caa2/CCC

$325

$93.13

13.12%

1193bp

1-Sep-18

1-Sep-14

$105.75

$271

3.0x

3.7x

92%

NR

15-Nov-18

NR/B

$200

$103.50

6.23%

544bp

15-Nov-16

15-Nov-14

$103.56

$149

4.7x

3.4x

43%

NR
NR

2/9/2017
15-Feb-18

B1/B+
Caa2/CCC+

$525
$250

$98.25
$99.25

7.44%
12.68%

569bp
1161bp

na
15-Feb-18

na
15-Feb-14

na
$106.25

$117
$117

1.6x
1.6x

4.6x
6.7x

77%
nm

NR

15-May-17

Caa1/B

$210

$67.00

23.10%

2221bp

15-May-17

15-May-14

$105.88

$35

1.3x

6.0x

85%

NR

15-Apr-17

B3/CCC+

$360

$79.75

15.90%

1503bp

15-Apr-17

15-Apr-14

$104.94

$123

2.0x

4.9x

70%

NR

1-Apr-18

Caa1/CCC+

$200

$98.00

10.84%

975bp

1-Apr-18

1-Apr-14

$100.00

$106

2.0x

5.3x

83%

NR

15-Jan-19

NR/B-

$200

$110.50

8.04%

722bp

15-Jan-17

15-Jan-15

$105.38

$129

3.7x

2.9x

na

NR

15-Jan-14

Caa1/CCC+

$130

$99.25

11.46%

1120bp

15-Jan-14

15-Jan-13

$100.00

$128

3.3x

3.7x

65%

NR
NR
NR

6/30/2018
15-Jul-15
15-Jul-17

Ba3/B
B3/CCC+
Caa1/CCC+

$100
$165
$150

$98.25
$101.00
$100.00

5.83%
10.07%
9.99%

433bp
954bp
946bp

na
15-Jul-15
15-Jul-15

na
15-Jul-12
15-Jul-12

na
$102.22
$105.00

$131
$131
$131

2.2x
2.2x
2.2x

3.4x
6.0x
6.0x

45%
80%
80%

Note: EBITDA is Adjusted EBITDA. Interest Expense is based on LTM values.


Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

38

Current

Bid

Recent Quotes
Yield
Spread

YTW
Date

Next Call Data


Date
Price

EBITDA
LTM

EBITDA/
Interest
LTM

Debt/
EBITDA
LTM

Debt/
TEV

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Healthcare David Common, CFA (1-212) 270-5260

Coupon

Desc.

Symbion
8.000%
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
11.000%
Sr Toggle Nts
United Surgical Partners
9.000%
Sr Nts
PRODUCT & DEVICE COMPANIES
Accellent Inc.
8.375%
1st Lien Nts
10.000%
Sr Sub Nts
Alere
7.875%
Sr Nts
9.000%
Sr Sub Nts
8.625%
Sr Sub Nts
Apria Healthcare Group
11.250%
Sr Sec Nts
12.375%
Sr Sec Nts
Bausch & Lomb
L + 325
TLB
9.875%
Sr Nts
Biomet Inc.
L + 300
TLB
10.000%
Sr Nts
10.375%
Sr Toggle Nts
11.625%
Sr Sub Nts
Bio-Rad Laboratories
8.000%
Sr Sub Nts
4.875%
Sr Nts
Boston Scientific
6.400%
Sr Nts
Convatec
L + 425
TLB
10.500%
Sr Nts
DJO/Reable
8.750%
Sr Sec Nts (2nd Lien)
10.875%
Sr Nts
7.750%
Sr Nts
9.750%
Sr Sub Nts
Kinetic Concepts
10.500%
Sr Sec Nts (2nd Lien)
12.500%
Sr Nts
Lantheus Medical Imaging
9.750%
Sr Nts

Recom.

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

NR
NR

15-Jun-16
23-Aug-15

B2/B
Caa2/CCC+

$341
$95

$98.75
$95.25

8.36%
12.77%

765bp
1222bp

15-Jun-16
23-Aug-15

15-Jun-14
23-Aug-12

$104.00
$102.75

$76
$76

1.5x
1.5x

4.6x
7.3x

62%
97%

NR

1-Apr-20

Caa1/CCC+

$440

$103.00

8.35%

726bp

1-Apr-18

1-Apr-15

$106.75

$210

2.5x

6.3x

84%

NR
NR

1-Feb-17
1-Nov-17

B1/B+
Caa2/CCC+

$400
$315

$99.50
$76.75

8.50%
16.57%

767bp
1557bp

1-Feb-17
1-Nov-17

1-Feb-13
1-Nov-13

$106.28
$107.50

$107
$107

1.5x
1.5x

3.7x
6.7x

47%
84%

NR
NR
NR

1-Feb-16
15-May-16
1-Oct-18

B2/B
B3/BB3/B-

$250
$400
$400

$104.13
$103.00
$102.50

6.24%
7.88%
7.95%

579bp
738bp
718bp

1-Feb-15
15-May-15
1-Oct-16

1-Feb-13
15-May-13
1-Oct-14

$103.94
$104.50
$104.31

$528
$528
$528

2.7x
2.7x
2.7x

5.3x
6.3x
6.3x

50%
60%
60%

NR
NR

1-Nov-14
1-Nov-14

Ba3/BB+
B3/BB-

$700
$318

$103.25
$98.38

8.94%
13.14%

870bp
1274bp

1-Nov-13
1-Nov-14

1-Nov-12
1-Nov-12

$102.81
$103.09

$274
$274

2.1x
2.1x

2.6x
3.8x

46%
68%

NR
NR

4/24/2015
1-Nov-15

B1/BBCaa1/B

$1143
$650

$99.50
$104.88

3.90%
5.18%

343bp
503bp

na
1-Nov-12

na
1-Nov-12

na
$102.47

$566
$566

3.3x
3.3x

3.6x
4.8x

40%
53%

NR
Hold
Hold
Buy

3/25/2015
15-Oct-17
15-Oct-17
15-Oct-17

B1/BBB3/BB3/BCaa1/B-

$2235
$771
$761
$1015

$99.50
$107.75
$108.25
$108.50

3.65%
4.15%
3.80%
5.73%

318bp
401bp
366bp
559bp

na
15-Oct-12
12-Oct-12
15-Oct-12

na
15-Oct-12
12-Oct-12
15-Oct-12

na
$105.00
$105.19
$105.81

$1,014
$1,014
$1,014
$1,014

2.1x
2.1x
2.1x
2.1x

3.3x
4.8x
4.8x
5.8x

44%
64%
64%
78%

NR
NR

15-Sep-16
15-Dec-20

Ba2/BBBBa1/BBB

$300
$425

$110.63
$105.02

3.05%
4.18%

283bp
246bp

15-Sep-13
15-Dec-20

15-Sep-13
nc

$104.00
na

$416
$416

7.8x
7.8x

1.8x
1.8x

28%
28%

NR

15-Jun-16

Baa3/BBB-

$600

$115.64

2.43%

172bp

15-Jun-16

nc

na

$1,705

6.0x

2.5x

36%

NR
Buy

12/22/2016
15-Dec-18

Ba3/B+
Caa1/B

$496
$745

$100.75
$102.00

5.57%
9.95%

407bp
914bp

na
15-Dec-16

na
15-Dec-14

na
$105.25

$423
$423

2.3x
2.3x

3.9x
6.4x

48%
80%

NR
NR
NR
NR

15-Mar-18
15-Nov-14
15-Apr-18
15-Oct-17

B2/B+
B3/BB3/BCaa1/CCC+

$230
$675
$300
$300

$99.50
$100.50
$81.00
$73.50

8.86%
10.51%
12.32%
17.44%

778bp
1027bp
1122bp
1645bp

15-Mar-18
15-Nov-13
15-Apr-18
15-Oct-17

15-Mar-15
15-Nov-12
15-Apr-14
15-Oct-13

$104.38
$102.72
$105.81
$107.31

$278
$278
$278
$278

1.6x
1.6x
1.6x
1.6x

4.1x
6.9x
6.9x
8.0x

51%
86%
86%
100%

Buy
Buy

1-Nov-18
1-Nov-19

B3/B
Caa1/CCC+

$1750
$1500

$102.50
$92.00

9.90%
14.26%

890bp
1281bp

1-Nov-17
1-Nov-19

1-Nov-15
1-Nov-15

$105.25
$106.25

$734
$734

1.7x
1.7x

5.5x
6.5x

76%
90%

NR

15-May-17

Caa1/B+

$400

$88.00

13.05%

1216bp

15-May-17

15-May-14

$104.88

$80

2.1x

5.0x

83%

Note: EBITDA is Adjusted EBITDA. Interest Expense is based on LTM values.


Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

39

Current

Bid

Recent Quotes
Yield
Spread

YTW
Date

Next Call Data


Date
Price

EBITDA
LTM

EBITDA/
Interest
LTM

Debt/
EBITDA
LTM

Debt/
TEV

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Healthcare David Common, CFA (1-212) 270-5260

Coupon

Desc.

Rotech Healthcare
10.750%
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
10.500%
Sr Sec Nts (2nd Lien)
Teleflex
6.875%
Sr Sub Nts
Universal Hospital Services
8.500%
Sr Sec Toggle Nts
4.121%
Sr Sec Nts
PHARMA & LIFE SCIENCES
Aptalis/Axcan
L + 400
TLB
12.750%
Sr Nts
BioScrip
10.250%
Sr Nts
Catalent Pharmaceuticals (PTS Acq.)
L + 225
TLB
9.500%
Sr Toggle Nts
Elan Pharmaceuticals
8.750%
Sr Nts
8.750%
Sr Nts
Endo Pharmaceuticals
7.000%
Sr Nts
7.000%
Sr Nts
7.250%
Sr Nts
Grifols
L + 350
TLB
8.250%
Sr Nts
Immucor
11.125%
Sr Nts
INC Research
11.500%
Sr Nts
Mylan
L + 200
TLA
7.625%
Sr Nts
6.000%
Sr Nts
7.875%
Sr Nts
Patheon
8.625%
First Lien Nts
PPD
9.500%
Sr Nts

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

EBITDA
LTM

EBITDA/
Interest
LTM

Current

Bid

NR
NR

15-Oct-15
15-Mar-18

B1/BBCaa1/B

$230
$290

$99.50
$65.00

10.93%
21.13%

1034bp
2005bp

15-Oct-15
15-Mar-18

15-Apr-13
15-Mar-15

$105.38
$105.25

$110
$110

1.8x
1.8x

2.6x
4.7x

52%
94%

NR

1-Jun-19

B1/BB-

$250

$107.75

5.13%

423bp

1-Jun-17

1-Jun-15

$103.44

$368

5.2x

2.6x

28%

NR
NR

1-Jun-15
1-Jun-15

B3/B+
B3/B+

$405
$230

$102.25
na

6.38%
na

619bp
nm

1-Jun-13
nm

1-Jun-12
10-May-12

$102.13
$102.00

$124
$124

2.6x
2.6x

5.2x
5.2x

75%
75%

NR
NR

2/11/2017
1-Mar-16

B1/B+
Caa1/B

$741
$235

$99.50
$106.75

5.62%
8.16%

412bp
799bp

na
1-Mar-13

na
1-Mar-13

na
$103.19

$218
$218

2.8x
2.8x

4.5x
4.5x

58%
58%

NR

1-Oct-15

Caa1/B-

$225

$109.00

5.35%

506bp

1-Apr-14

1-Apr-13

$105.13

$67

2.4x

4.1x

44%

NR
NR

4/10/2014
15-Apr-15

Ba3/BBCaa1/B

$1010
$624

$96.25
$102.50

4.09%
6.86%

384bp
668bp

na
15-Apr-13

na
15-Apr-13

na
$102.38

$369
$369

2.2x
2.2x

3.8x
5.5x

47%
68%

Buy
Buy

15-Oct-16
15-Oct-16

B1/BBB1/BB-

$200
$625

$109.63
$109.63

4.86%
4.86%

462bp
462bp

15-Oct-13
15-Oct-13

15-Oct-12
15-Oct-12

$108.75
$108.75

$231
$231

2.0x
2.0x

nm
nm

16%
16%

NR
NR
NR

15-Jul-19
15-Dec-20
15-Jan-22

Ba3/BBBa3/BBBa3/BB-

$500
$400
$400

$105.25
$105.00
$105.50

5.82%
6.07%
6.29%

489bp
482bp
490bp

15-Jul-17
15-Dec-18
15-Jul-19

15-Jul-15
15-Dec-15
15-Jul-16

$103.50
$103.50
$103.63

$974
$974
$974

4.5x
4.5x
4.5x

3.8x
3.8x
3.8x

46%
46%
46%

NR
NR

6/4/2017
1-Feb-18

Ba3/BB
B3/B

$1600
$1100

$100.50
$107.00

4.39%
6.52%

339bp
569bp

na
1-Feb-17

na
1-Feb-14

na
$106.19

$849
$849

3.2x
3.2x

3.8x
5.1x

29%
39%

NR

15-Aug-19

Caa1/B-

$400

$111.00

8.51%

756bp

15-Aug-17

15-Aug-15

$105.56

$151

1.6x

6.7x

75%

NR

15-Jul-19

Caa1/B-

$300

$98.25

11.86%

1047bp

15-Jul-19

15-Jul-15

$105.75

$111

2.2x

5.8x

84%

NR
NR
NR
NR

11/14/2016
15-Jul-17
15-Nov-18
15-Jul-20

Baa3/BBB
Ba3/BB
Ba3/BB
Ba3/BB

$1227
$550
$800
$1000

$100.00
$108.75
$103.00
$110.00

2.47%
5.20%
5.25%
5.58%

200bp
467bp
446bp
505bp

na
15-Jul-15
15-Nov-16
15-Jul-15

na
15-Jul-15
15-Nov-14
15-Jul-15

na
$101.91
$103.00
$103.94

$1,677
$1,677
$1,677
$1,677

5.0x
5.0x
5.0x
5.0x

0.7x
2.8x
2.8x
2.8x

9%
34%
34%
34%

Hold

15-Apr-17

B3/B+

$280

$84.50

12.93%

1206bp

15-Apr-17

15-Apr-13

$106.47

$47

1.8x

6.0x

53%

NR

1-Dec-19

B3/B

$575

$108.00

7.72%

670bp

1-Dec-17

1-Dec-14

$107.13

$350

2.4x

5.8x

64%

Recom.

Note: EBITDA is Adjusted EBITDA. Interest Expense is based on LTM values.


Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

40

Recent Quotes
Yield
Spread

YTW
Date

Next Call Data


Date
Price

Debt/
EBITDA
LTM

Debt/
TEV

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Healthcare David Common, CFA (1-212) 270-5260

Coupon

Desc.

Valeant Pharmaceuticals
6.500%
Sr Nts
6.750%
Sr Nts
6.875%
Sr Nts
7.000%
Sr Nts
6.750%
Sr Nts
7.250%
Sr Nts
Warner Chilcott
L + 325
TLB1
L + 325
TLB2
L + 325
TLB3
7.750%
Sr Nts
MISCELLANEOUS
Carriage Services
7.875%
Sr Nts
Centene
5.750%
Sr Nts
Corrections Corp of America
6.250%
Sr Nts
6.750%
Sr Nts
7.750%
Sr Nts
Inventiv
10.000%
Sr Nts
10.000%
Sr Nts
Merge Healthcare
11.750%
Sr Sec Nts
Multiplan
9.875%
Sr Nts
Service Corporation International
7.375%
Sr Nts
6.750%
Sr Nts
6.750%
Sr Nts
7.000%
Sr Nts
7.625%
Sr Nts
7.000%
Sr Nts
8.000%
Sr Nts
7.500%
Sr Nts
Sterigenics
8.000%
Sr Sec Nts (2nd Lien)
Stewart Enterprises
6.500%
Sr Nts

Recom.

Maturity

Current

Bid

Recent Quotes
Yield
Spread

YTW
Date

Next Call Data


Date
Price

EBITDA
LTM

EBITDA/
Interest
LTM

Debt/
EBITDA
LTM

Debt/
TEV

NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR

15-Jul-16
1-Oct-17
1-Dec-18
1-Oct-20
15-Aug-21
15-Jul-22

B1/BBB1/BBB1/BBB1/BBB1/BBB1/BB-

$950
$500
$1000
$700
$650
$550

$101.50
$100.25
$99.75
$98.63
$96.50
$98.00

5.98%
6.68%
6.92%
7.22%
7.27%
7.53%

545bp
592bp
568bp
555bp
540bp
550bp

15-Jul-15
1-Oct-16
1-Dec-18
1-Oct-20
15-Aug-21
15-Jul-22

15-Jul-13
1-Oct-14
1-Dec-14
1-Oct-15
15-Feb-16
15-Jul-16

$103.25
$103.38
$103.44
$103.50
$103.38
$103.63

$1,747
$1,747
$1,747
$1,747
$1,747
$1,747

5.2x
5.2x
5.2x
5.2x
5.2x
5.2x

4.2x
4.2x
4.2x
4.2x
4.2x
4.2x

31%
31%
31%
31%
31%
31%

NR
NR
NR
NR

3/15/2018
3/15/2018
3/15/2018
15-Sep-18

Ba3/BBBBa3/BBBBa3/BBBB3/BB

$720
$396
$545
$1250

$100.25
$100.25
$100.25
$102.00

4.14%
4.14%
4.14%
7.21%

314bp
314bp
314bp
645bp

na
na
na
15-Sep-16

na
na
na
15-Sep-14

na
na
na
$103.88

$1,380
$1,380
$1,380
$1,380

2.2x
2.2x
2.2x
2.2x

2.2x
2.2x
2.2x
2.8x

38%
38%
38%
49%

NR

15-Jan-15

B1/B-

$130

$101.00

6.46%

630bp

15-Jan-13

15-Jan-13

$100.00

$44

2.4x

3.1x

50%

NR

1-Jun-17

Ba2/BB

$250

$101.00

5.52%

462bp

1-Jun-17

nc

na

$249

12.2x

1.4x

19%

NR
NR
NR

15-Mar-13
31-Jan-14
1-Jun-17

Ba1/BB
Ba1/BB
Ba1/BB

$40
$150
$465

$100.00
$100.13
$108.44

6.24%
6.67%
3.44%

607bp
640bp
325bp

15-Mar-13
31-Jan-14
1-Jun-13

nc
nc
1-Jun-13

$100.00
$100.00
$103.88

$418
$418
$418

5.7x
5.7x
5.7x

2.8x
2.8x
2.8x

35%
35%
35%

NR
NR

15-Aug-18
15-Aug-18

Caa2/CCC+
Caa2/CCC+

$275
$390

$88.25
$88.75

12.75%
12.63%

1157bp
1145bp

15-Aug-18
15-Aug-18

15-Aug-14
15-Aug-14

$105.00
$105.00

$326
$326

1.8x
1.8x

6.0x
6.0x

80%
80%

NR

1-May-15

B2/B+

$257

$107.00

7.96%

766bp

1-May-14

1-May-13

$105.88

$57

1.9x

4.4x

39%

NR

1-Sep-18

Caa1/CCC+

$675

$107.50

7.81%

706bp

1-Sep-16

1-Sep-14

$104.94

na

na

5.9x

74%

NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR

1-Oct-14
1-Apr-15
1-Apr-16
15-Jun-17
1-Oct-18
15-May-19
15-Nov-21
1-Apr-27

Ba3/BBBa3/BBBa3/BBBa3/BBBa3/BBBa3/BBBa3/BBBa3/BB-

$181
$135
$196
$295
$250
$250
$150
$200

$109.00
$109.00
$108.25
$110.75
$114.25
$107.50
$114.50
$100.25

3.52%
3.52%
4.45%
4.63%
5.01%
5.13%
5.99%
7.47%

314bp
304bp
378bp
372bp
381bp
453bp
406bp
516bp

1-Oct-14
1-Apr-15
1-Apr-16
15-Jun-17
1-Oct-18
15-Nov-15
15-Nov-21
1-Apr-27

nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
15-Nov-14
nc
nc

nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
$103.50
nc
nc

$558
$558
$558
$558
$558
$558
$558
$558

4.2x
4.2x
4.2x
4.2x
4.2x
4.2x
4.2x
4.2x

3.4x
3.4x
3.4x
3.4x
3.4x
3.4x
3.4x
3.4x

44%
44%
44%
44%
44%
44%
44%
44%

NR

15-Mar-18

B2/B

$475

$107.00

6.32%

546bp

15-Mar-17

15-Mar-14

$106.00

$102

2.9x

4.7x

71%

NR

15-Apr-19

B1/BB-

$200

$103.75

5.63%

476bp

15-Apr-17

15-Apr-14

$104.88

$97

4.3x

3.2x

30%

Note: EBITDA is Adjusted EBITDA. Interest Expense is based on LTM values.


Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

41

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Industrials Yilma Abebe (1-212) 270-3265
Coupon

Desc.

Recom.

Altra Holdings (ALTHDS)


8.125%
Sr Sec Nts
NR
Briggs & Stratton (BGG)
6.875%
Sr Nts
NR
Cleaver-Brooks (CLEAVB)
12.250% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien) NR
1
CNH Global (CNH)
7.750%
Sr Nts
Hold
7.250%
Sr Nts
Hold
6.250%
Sr Nts
NR
7.875%
Sr Nts
Hold
Columbus McKinnon (CMCO)
7.875%
Sr Sub Nts
NR
Dynacast International (DYNCST)
9.250% Sr Sec Nts (2nd Lien) NR
General Cable (BGC)
7.125%
Sr Nts
Hold
Gibraltar (ROCK)
8.000%
Sr Sub Nts
Hold
2
HD Supply (HD Supply)
8.125% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien) NR
11.000% Sr Sec Nts (2nd Lien) NR
Interline Brands (IBI)
7.000%
Sr Sub Nts
NR
Manitowoc (MTW)
L + 300
Term Loan A
NR
L + 300
Term Loan B
NR
7.125%
Sr Nts
Hold
9.500%
Sr Nts
Buy
8.500%
Sr Nts
Buy
Mueller Water (MWA)
7.375%
Sr Sub Nts
Buy
8.750%
Sr Nts
Hold

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

Amount
Outst.
($ mn)

1-Dec-16

Ba3/BB-

$198.0

107.50

5.46%

531bp

1-Dec-12

1-Dec-12

15-Dec-20

Ba3/BB

$225.0

104.00

6.27%

455bp

15-Dec-20

1-May-16

B2/B

$185.0

104.00

10.03%

973bp

106.25
109.50
105.50
115.25

3.07%
4.47%
4.88%
4.75%

1-Sep-13
15-Jan-16
1-Nov-16
1-Dec-17

Ba2/BB+ $1,000.0
Ba2/BB+ $254.0
Ba2/BB $500.0
Ba2/BB+ $1,500.0

Recent Quotes
Bid
YTW
Spread

Debt/
EBITDA

Net Debt/
EBITDA

Sr. Sec./
EBITDA

EBITDA/
Int. Exp

Total Debt/
TEV

106.09

$99

2.9x

2.0x

2.0x

4.1x

41%

7.1x

$507.1

nc

nc

$158

1.4x

1.2x

0.0x

6.0x

22%

6.7x

$870.0

1-May-14

1-May-13

106.13

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

285bp
384bp
410bp
374bp

1-Sep-13
15-Jan-16
1-Nov-16
1-Dec-17

nc
nc
nc
nc

nc
nc
nc
nc

$1,692
$1,692
$1,692
$1,692

2.7x
2.7x
2.7x
2.7x

1.9x
1.9x
1.9x
1.9x

0.6x
0.6x
0.6x
0.6x

4.4x
4.4x
4.4x
4.4x

33%
33%
33%
33%

8.0x
8.0x
8.0x
8.0x

$10,360.5
$10,360.5
$10,360.5
$10,360.5

1-Feb-19

B1/B+

$150.0

104.00

6.88%

605bp

1-Feb-17

1-Feb-15

103.94

$52

2.9x

1.4x

0.2x

3.7x

41%

7.2x

$304.5

15-Jul-19

B2/B

$350.0

103.88

8.32%

739bp

15-Jul-17

15-Jul-15

104.63

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

1-Apr-17

Ba3/B+

$200.0

102.75

6.09%

562bp

1-Apr-15

1-Apr-13

102.38

$395

2.7x

1.6x

0.6x

4.3x

51%

5.2x

$1,418.5

1-Dec-15

B2/BB-

$204.0

102.63

5.77%

562bp

1-Dec-12

1-Dec-12

101.33

$67

3.1x

2.3x

0.0x

3.6x

35%

8.7x

$430.6

15-Apr-19
B2/B+
$950.0
15-Apr-20 Caa1/CCC+ $675.0

100.50
102.75

8.02%
10.37%

692bp
923bp

15-Apr-18
15-Apr-18

15-Apr-15
15-Apr-16

106.09
105.50

$508
$508

4.2x
5.5x

4.0x
5.3x

5.5x
5.5x

1.1x
1.1x

na
na

na
na

na
na

15-Nov-18

B2/BB

$300.0

105.25

5.68%

489bp

15-Nov-16

15-Nov-13

105.25

$110

2.7x

2.0x

0.0x

4.6x

34%

8.0x

$667.4

13-May-16
13-Nov-17
1-Nov-13
15-Feb-18
1-Nov-20

Ba2/BB
Ba2/BB
B3/B+
B3/B+
B3/B+

$350.0
$400.0
$150.0
$400.0
$600.0

98.77
99.38
100.25
111.25
109.25

3.88%
3.60%
6.95%
5.45%
6.61%

300bp
233bp
671bp
518bp
602bp

na
na
1-Nov-13
15-Feb-14
1-Nov-15

na
na

na
na

15-Feb-14
1-Nov-15

104.75
104.25

$349
$349
$349
$349
$349

5.4x
5.4x
5.4x
5.4x
5.4x

5.2x
5.2x
5.2x
5.2x
5.2x

1.9x
1.9x
1.9x
1.9x
1.9x

2.4x
2.4x
2.4x
2.4x
2.4x

52%
52%
52%
52%
52%

10.5x
10.5x
10.5x
10.5x
10.5x

$1,843.8
$1,843.8
$1,843.8
$1,843.8
$1,843.8

1-Jun-17 Caa2/CCC+ $420.0


1-Sep-20
B2/B+
$225.0

98.50
111.25

7.73%
6.19%

683bp
563bp

1-Jun-17
1-Sep-15

1-Jun-12
1-Sep-15

103.69
104.38

$99
$99

6.8x
6.8x

6.4x
6.4x

0.4x
0.4x

1.5x
1.5x

57%
57%

12.1x
12.1x

$555.6
$555.6

1. Leverage stats exclude finance arm subsidiary, although Enterprise Value calculations are on a consolidated basis.
2. Leverage stats are only through the notes, total leverage on a consolidated basis is 10.6x.
Note: Loan yields are to maturity; spreads are over libor.
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

42

TEV/
LTM EBITDA

Equity
Mkt
Cap

LTM
EBITDA

YTW Date

Next Call Data


Date
Price

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Industrials Yilma Abebe (1-212) 270-3265
Coupon

Desc.

Recom.

Oshkosh (OSK)
L + 300
Term Loan A
NR
8.250%
Sr Nts
NR
8.500%
Sr Nts
NR
Park Ohio Industries (PKOH)
8.125%
Sr Nts
NR
Polypore (PPO)
L + 200
Term Loan
NR
7.500%
Sr Nts
NR
1
Rexnord (RXN)
8.500%
Sr Nts
Buy
11.750% Sr Sub Nts
Hold
2
SPX Corp. (SPW)
7.625%
Sr Nts
NR
6.875%
Guar Nts
NR
Terex Corp. (TEX)
L + 400
Term Loan
NR
8.000%
Sr Sub Nts
Hold
10.875%
Sr Nts
Hold
6.500%
Sr Nts
NR
Tomkins (PINFOR)
L + 300
Term Loan A
NR
L + 300
Term Loan B
NR
9.000% Sr Sec Nts (2nd Lien) NR
TriMas (TRS)
L + 300
Term Loan B
NR
9.750% Sr Sec Nts (2nd Lien) NR
Wire Co. (WIREWG)
L + 300
Term Loan B
NR
9.500%
Sr Nts
NR
Wabtec (WAB)
6.875%
Sr Nts
Hold

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

Amount
Outst.
($ mn)

1-Oct-15
1-Mar-17
1-Mar-20

Ba2/BBBB1/BB
B1/BB

$650.0
$250.0
$250.0

98.50
108.00
107.75

3.73%
5.79%
6.84%

294bp
552bp
618bp

na
1-Mar-14
1-Mar-16

na
1-Mar-14
1-Mar-15

1-Apr-21

B3/CCC+

$250.0

102.88

7.58%

626bp

1-Apr-19

3-Jul-14
15-Nov-17

Ba2/BB
B3/B

$322.9
$365.0

99.16
104.75

2.87%
6.29%

224bp
550bp

1-May-18
1-Aug-16

Caa1/B $1,145.0
Caa2/B- $300.0

107.00
105.88

6.50%
4.65%

15-Dec-14
1-Sep-17

Ba2/BB+
Ba2/BB+

$500.0
$600.0

111.00
108.50

28-Apr-17
15-Nov-17
1-Jun-16
1-Apr-20

Ba2/BB
Caa1/B
B2/BBB2/BB-

$460.1
$800.0
$300.0
$300.0

29-Sep-15
29-Sep-16
1-Oct-18

Ba2/NR
Ba2/BB
B1/B+

21-Jun-17
15-Dec-17

Debt/
EBITDA

Net Debt/
EBITDA

Sr. Sec./
EBITDA

EBITDA/
Int. Exp

Total Debt/
TEV

na
104.13
104.25

$555
$555
$555

1.8x
1.8x
1.8x

1.0x
1.0x
1.0x

0.9x
0.9x
0.9x

6.9x
6.9x
6.9x

39%
39%
39%

4.9x
4.9x
4.9x

$2,020.3
$2,020.3
$2,020.3

1-Apr-16

104.06

$72

4.9x

4.1x

1.4x

3.0x

65%

7.6x

$254.3

na
15-Nov-16

na
15-Nov-13

na
105.63

$242

2.9x

2.5x

1.4x

6.5x

31%

9.6x

$1,720.5

582bp
456bp

1-May-16
1-Aug-12

1-May-14
1-Aug-12

104.25
103.92

$383
$383

6.3x
6.3x

5.7x
5.7x

2.4x
2.4x

2.2x
2.2x

na
na

na
na

na
na

3.28%
5.05%

286bp
409bp

15-Dec-14
1-Sep-17

nc
nc

nc
nc

$621
$621

3.2x
3.2x

2.4x
2.4x

0.0x
0.0x

6.0x
6.0x

37%
37%

7.7x
7.7x

$3,957.2
$3,957.2

100.48
101.50
112.75
100.50

5.39%
7.51%
3.94%
6.40%

427bp
691bp
375bp
530bp

na
15-Nov-15
1-Jun-13
1-Apr-18

na
15-Nov-12
1-Jun-13
1-Apr-16

na
104.00
105.44
103.25

$200
$200
$200
$200

nm
nm
nm
nm

nm
nm
nm
nm

nm
nm
nm
nm

nm
nm
nm
nm

56%
56%
56%
56%

nm
nm
nm
nm

$2,596.1
$2,596.1
$2,596.1
$2,596.1

$296.0
$1,677.3
$1,035.1

99.33
99.95
110.50

4.46%
4.26%
6.06%

365bp
325bp
568bp

na
na
1-Oct-14

na
na
1-Oct-14

na
na
104.50

$704
$704
$704

4.5x
4.5x
4.5x

3.8x
3.8x
3.8x

2.8x
2.8x
2.8x

2.2x
2.2x
2.2x

na
na
na

na
na
na

na
na
na

Ba2/BB
B2/B-

$225.0
$250.0

99.58
110.50

4.34%
5.86%

318bp
560bp

na
15-Dec-13

na
15-Dec-13

na
104.88

$165
$165

2.9x
2.9x

2.8x
2.8x

2.9x
2.9x

3.5x
3.5x

37%
37%

7.9x
7.9x

$832.6
$832.6

10-Feb-14
15-May-17

Ba1/BB
B2/B

$125.0
$425.0

98.00
103.25

6.17%
8.28%

554bp
778bp

na
15-May-15

na
na
15-May-13 104.75

na
na

na
na

na
na

na
na

na
na

na
na

na
na

na
na

31-Jul-13

Ba1/BB+

$150.0

105.00

2.89%

268bp

31-Jul-13

$246

1.7x

0.8x

1.1x

23.8x

11%

15.6x

$3,650.0

43

YTW Date

Next Call Data


Date
Price

nc

nc

TEV/
LTM EBITDA

Equity
Mkt
Cap

LTM
EBITDA

1. Pro forma for VAG acquisition.


2. Pro forma for acquisitions and divestitures.
Note: Loan yields are to maturity; spreads are over libor.
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

Recent Quotes
Bid
YTW
Spread

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Leisure/Entertainment Michael Pace (1-212) 270-6530

Issuer

Description

Carnival Cruises
6.650%
Sr Nts
Cedar Fair
9.125%
Sr Nts
L+300
TLB
Expedia Inc.
7.456%
Sr Nts
5.950%
Sr Nts
5-YR CDS
Live Nation Entertainment
8.125% (Live Nation Ent)
Sr Nts
10.75% (Ticketmaster)
Sr Nts
L+300
TLB
Manchester United
8.375%
Sr Nts
NetFlix
8.500%
Sr Nts
Royal Caribbean Cruises
6.875%
Sr Nts
7.250%
Debs
7.500%
Nts
5-YR CDS
Six Flags, Inc.
L+325
1st Lien TL
1. CDS spread references 5-year CDS.
2. Forward EBITDA is 2012E EBITDA
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

44

Recommendation

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys /
S&P

NR

15-Jan-28

A3/BBB+

200.0

105 3/8

6.11%

376bp

Buy
NR

1-Aug-18
15-Dec-16

B2/B
Ba3/BB

405.0
1150.0

111 3/4
100

5.49%
4.00%

514bp

NR
NR
NR

15-Aug-18
15-Aug-20

Ba1/BBBBa1/BBB-

500.0
750.0

113 1/3
103

4.98%
5.51%

380bp
387bp

NR
NR
NR

15-May-18
1-Aug-16
30-Apr-16

B3/B
B3/B
Ba3/B+

250.0
287.0
325.0

105
107 1/4
99 3/4

6.70%
3.95%
4.56%

601bp
385bp

NR

1-Feb-17

NR/NR

425.0

107

6.27%

NR

15-Nov-17

Ba2/BB-

200.0

109

NR
NR
NR
NR

1-Dec-13
15-Jun-16
15-Oct-27

Ba1/BB
Ba1/BB
Ba1/BB

350.0
350.0
300.0

105
107 1/2
100 3/4

NR

20-Dec-18

Amount
Outst.

Recent Quotes
Bid
YTW
STW

Bank/CDS
1
Spread

Next Call Data


Date
Price

EBITDA/
Total Int.
LTM

Net Debt/
EBITDA
LTM

Net Debt/
UFCF
LTM

TEV/
Fwd
2
EBITDA

nc

na

8.9x

2.5x

nm

10.4x

1-Aug-14
na

104.56
na

9.5x

4.1x
2.9x

5.9x
4.7x

7.9x

15-Aug-13

100.00

10.2x

0.4x

0.4x

5.3x

15-May-14
1-Aug-12
nc

104.06
105.38
na

3.4x

3.5x

4.9x

6.4x

2.2x

nm

563bp

1-Feb-13

108.38

4.0x

3.2x

nm

Private

5.11%

487bp

15-Nov-13

104.25

20.5x

-0.3x

nm

nm

3.67%
5.22%
7.42%

342bp
451bp
508bp

nc
nc
nc

na
na
na

4.7x

5.3x

nm

9.1x

2.9x

2.0x

6.0x

9.8x

300bp

230bp

306bp

475bp
B1/BB+

770.0

99 5/8

4.32%

332bp

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Leisure/Theaters Arjun Chandar (1-212) 270-6797

Issuer

Description

Cinemark USA
8.625%
Sr Nts
7.375%
Sr Sub Nts
L+325
TLB
Regal Cinemas
8.625% (Regal Cinemas)
Sr Nts
9.125% (Regal Ent- Holdco) Sr Nts
L+325
TLB
National Amusements
8.250%
Sr Sec Nts
National CineMedia
7.875%
Sr Unsec Nts
1. Forward EBITDA is 2012E EBITDA.
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

45

Recommendation

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys /
S&P

Sell
Sell
Hold

15-Jun-19
15-Jun-21
30-Apr-16

B2/B
B3/B
Ba2/BB

470.0
200.0
1,043.5

110 1/2
107
99 3/4

5.32%
6.15%
3.79%

500bp
478bp

Sell
Sell
Hold

15-Jul-19
15-Aug-18
23-Aug-17

B2/BB3/BNR/BB-

400.0
525.0
1,086.9

109
109 3/4
99 2/5

6.09%
6.39%
3.82%

575bp
604bp

NR

15-Dec-17

B1/BB

400.0

109 3/4

5.62%

NR

15-Jul-21

B2/B

200.0

106 1/4

6.77%

Amount
Outst.

Recent Quotes
Bid
YTW
STW

Bank/CDS
1
Spread

Next Call Data


Date
Price

EBITDA/
Total Int.
LTM

Net Debt/
EBITDA LTM

Net Debt + 8xRent/


EBITDAR
LTM

TEV/
Fwd
EBITDA

15-Jun-14
15-Jun-16

104.31
103.69

4.8x

1.9x
2.3x
1.0x

4.0x
4.3x
3.4x

7.1x

15-Jul-14
15-Aug-14

104.31
104.56

3.5x

2.6x
3.7x
1.8x

4.9x
5.5x
4.5x

7.4x

537bp

15-Dec-13

106.19

na

na

na

Private

538bp

15-Jul-16

103.94

3.5x

3.1x

na

10.5x

332bp

336bp

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Lodging Susan Berliner (1-212) 270-3085
Coupon

Description

Recommendation

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

Hold
Hold

1-Oct-14
1-Jun-19

B2/NR
B2/B-

$492
$525

114.50
100.38

3.77%
6.66%

339bp
576bp

1-Jun-15

103.375

$971
$971

$203
$203

7.9x
7.9x

1.5x
1.5x

NR

15-Nov-14

Caa2/B

$152

100.38

6.07%

593bp

15-Nov-12

100.000

$952

$217

4.9x

3.5x

Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
NR

1-Nov-14
15-Mar-15
1-Jun-16
15-May-17
15-Jun-19
1-Nov-20
15-Mar-22

NR/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+

$500
$650
$800
$400
$500
$500
$350

102.00
101.25
102.88
110.38
105.25
105.75
98.50

3.12%
4.95%
1.66%
3.27%
4.72%
4.96%
5.45%

298bp
478bp
160bp
308bp
381bp
396bp
345bp

1-Nov-12
15-Mar-13
1-Jun-12
15-May-13
15-Jun-15
1-Nov-15
15-Dec-21

100.000
100.000
102.250
104.500
102.938
103.000
100.000

$4,999
$4,999
$4,999
$4,999
$4,999
$4,999
$4,999

$1,018
$1,018
$1,018
$1,018
$1,018
$1,018
$1,018

5.9x
5.9x
5.9x
5.9x
5.9x
5.9x
5.9x

2.8x
2.8x
2.8x
2.8x
2.8x
2.8x
2.8x

NR
NR
NR

15-Jun-12
15-Feb-13
15-Jun-16

Baa2/BBB
Baa2/BBB
Baa2/BBB

$348
$400
$289

100.50
103.73
115.75

1.52%
1.09%
2.22%

145bp
93bp
151bp

$12,317
$12,317
$12,317

$1,073
$1,073
$1,073

2.3x
2.3x
2.3x

6.5x
6.5x
6.5x

Hold
Buy
Buy
Buy

15-Feb-13
15-Nov-15
15-May-18
1-Dec-19

Baa3/BBBBaa3/BBBBaa3/BBBBaa3/BBB-

$495
$450
$400
$250

103.75
115.00
115.25
118.50

1.68%
2.93%
3.91%
4.28%

152bp
233bp
279bp
280bp

$5,624
$5,624
$5,624
$5,624

$1,032
$1,032
$1,032
$1,032

2.5x
2.5x
2.5x
2.5x

4.8x
4.8x
4.8x
4.8x

Hold
Hold
NR
Hold
Buy
Hold
NR

1-May-14
1-Dec-16
1-Mar-17
1-Feb-18
1-Mar-20
1-Mar-21
1-Mar-22

Baa3/BBBBaa3/BBBBaa3/BBBBaa3/BBBBaa3/BBBBaa3/BBBBaa3/BBB-

$43
$357
$300
$250
$250
$250
$650

117.23
114.83
99.78
112.10
121.41
108.85
99.30

1.29%
2.58%
3.00%
3.43%
4.16%
4.41%
4.34%

99bp
178bp
215bp
237bp
262bp
264bp
234bp

$4,254
$4,254
$4,254
$4,254
$4,254
$4,254
$4,254

$976
$976
$976
$976
$976
$976
$976

2.2x
2.2x
2.2x
2.2x
2.2x
2.2x
2.2x

6.9x
6.9x
6.9x
6.9x
6.9x
6.9x
6.9x

Felcor Lodging Trust


10.000%
Sr Sec Nts
6.750%
Sr Sec Nts
Gaylord Entertainment Company
6.750%
Sr Nts
Host Hotels & Resorts
6.875%
Sr Nts
6.375%
Sr Nts
6.750%
Sr Nts
9.000%
Sr Nts
5.875%
Sr Nts
6.000%
Guar Nts
5.250%
Sr Nts
Marriott International
4.625%
Nts
5.625%
Sr Nts
6.200%
Nts
Starwood
6.250%
Sr Nts
7.375%
Debs
6.750%
Sr Nts
7.150%
Sr Nts
Wyndham Worldwide
9.875%
Sr Nts
6.000%
Sr Nts
2.950%
Sr Nts
5.750%
Sr Nts
7.375%
Sr Nts
5.625%
Sr Nts
4.250%
Sr Nts
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

46

Amount
Outstanding
($ mn)

Bid

Recent Quotes
YTW
Spread

Next Call Data


Date
Price

1-Feb-17

100.00

1-Dec-21

100.00

LTM
Revenue

LTM
Adjusted
EBITDA

Total Debt/
LTM
EBITDA

LTM
EBITDA/
Int. Exp.

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Media: Broadcasting Avi Steiner (1-212) 270-5512

Coupon

Desc.

OUT OF HOME (RADIO & OUTDOOR)


Clear Channel Communications
L+340
TL A
L+365
TL B
L+365
TL C
L+365
DD TL 1
L+365
DD TL 2
9.000%
Priority G'teed
10.750%
Senior G'teed
11.000%
Senior G'teed PIK Toggle
5.750%
Senior
5.500%
Senior
4.900%
Senior
5.500%
Senior
6.875%
Senior
7.250%
Senior
Clear Channel Outdoor
9.250%
Sr Nts - A
9.250%
Sr Nts - B
7.625%
Sr Sub Nts - A
7.625%
Sr Sub Nts - B
Cumulus Media
L+450
TL (1st Lien)
L+600
TL (2nd Lien)
7.750%
Senior
Entercom Communications
L+500
TL B
10.500%
Senior
Lamar Media
L+250
TL A
L+275
TL B
9.750%
Senior
6.625%
Sr. Sub
7.875%
Sr. Sub
5.875%
Sr. Sub
Salem Communications
9.625%
Sr. Sec. 2nd Lien
Spanish Broadcasting
12.500%
Sr. Sec.
Townsquare Radio
9.000%
Senior
TELEVISION BROADCASTERS
Allbritton Communications
Senior
8.000%
Belo Corporation
Sr. Sub. G'teed
8.000%
Senior
6.750%
Senior
7.750%
Senior
7.250%
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

47

Recom.

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys/
S&P

Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Hold
Buy
Buy
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold

30-Jul-14
29-Jan-16
29-Jan-16
29-Jan-16
29-Jan-16
1-Mar-21
1-Aug-16
1-Aug-16
15-Jan-13
15-Sep-14
15-May-15
15-Dec-16
15-Jun-18
15-Oct-27

Caa1/CCC+
Caa1/CCC+
Caa1/CCC+
Caa1/CCC+
Caa1/CCC+
Caa1/CCC+
Ca/CCCCa/CCCCa/CCCCa/CCCCa/CCCCa/CCCCa/CCCCa/CCC-

Hold
Hold
Buy
Buy

15-Dec-17
15-Dec-17
15-Mar-20
15-Mar-20

Buy
Buy
Hold

Amount
O/S

Bid

Recent Quotes
Yield

1,070
8,599
660
569
408
1,750
796
784
312
461
250
250
175
300

91.75
79.96
77.20
78.75
78.75
89.00
72.25
71.00
99.00
85.50
78.00
56.00
54.75
50.25

8.11%
12.38%
13.70%
12.94%
12.94%
10.97%
20.82%
21.70%
7.13%
12.65%
13.92%
20.62%
19.94%
16.03%

747bp
1,167bp
1,299bp
1,222bp
1,222bp
920bp
2,008bp
2,096bp
697bp
1,228bp
1,342bp
1,982bp
1,880bp
1,369bp

na
na
na
na
na
1-Mar-21
1-Aug-16
1-Aug-16
15-Jan-13
15-Sep-14
15-May-15
15-Dec-16
15-Jun-18
15-Oct-27

na
na
na
na
na
1-Mar-16
1-Aug-12
1-Aug-12
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc

na
na
na
na
na
$104.50
$105.38
$105.50
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc

5.9x
5.9x
5.9x
5.9x
5.9x
5.9x
9.1x
9.1x
10.2x
10.2x
10.2x
10.2x
10.2x
10.2x

1.5x
1.5x
1.5x
1.5x
1.5x
1.5x
1.5x
1.5x
1.5x
1.5x
1.5x
1.5x
1.5x
1.5x

B1/B
B1/B
B3/B
B3/B

500
2,000
275
1,925

108.25
108.50
95.50
96.75

6.60%
6.34%
8.41%
8.19%

634bp
619bp
687bp
665bp

15-Dec-13
15-Dec-12
15-Mar-20
15-Mar-20

15-Dec-12
15-Dec-12
15-Mar-15
15-Mar-15

$106.94
$106.94
$105.72
$105.72

2.5x
2.5x
5.2x
5.2x

2.0x
2.0x
2.0x
2.0x

17-Sep-18
18-Mar-19
1-May-19

Ba2/BBB2/CCC+
B3/CCC+

1,322
790
610

100.56
101.50
94.25

5.56%
6.95%
8.86%

485bp
623bp
752bp

na
na
1-May-19

na
na
1-May-15

na
na
$103.88

3.8x
5.9x
7.6x

2.0x
2.0x
2.0x

NR
NR

23-Nov-18
1-Dec-19

Ba3/BBCaa1/B-

375
220

100.75
107.75

5.99%
8.72%

527bp
771bp

na
1-Dec-17

na
1-Dec-15

na
$105.25

3.8x
6.0x

5.5x
5.5x

NR
NR
Hold
Hold
Hold
Sell

31-Dec-15
30-Dec-16
1-Apr-14
15-Aug-15
15-Apr-18
1-Feb-22

Baa3/BB+
Baa3/BB+
Ba3/BB+
B1/BBB1/BBB1/BB-

378
363
350
260
400
500

99.00
100.15
113.00
102.00
108.50
100.50

3.62%
3.95%
2.87%
3.80%
5.23%
5.79%

291bp
323bp
259bp
369bp
494bp
428bp

na
na
1-Apr-14
15-Aug-12
15-Apr-14
1-Feb-20

na
na
nc
30-Apr-12
15-Apr-14
1-Feb-17

na
na
nc
$102.21
$103.94
$102.94

1.6x
1.6x
2.3x
4.4x
4.4x
4.4x

3.2x
3.2x
3.2x
3.2x
3.2x
3.2x

NR

15-Dec-16

B2/B

235

110.25

5.86%

560bp

15-Dec-13

15-Dec-13

$104.81

5.1x

2.1x

NR

15-Apr-17

Caal/B-

275

104.00

11.23%

1,035bp

15-Apr-17

15-Apr-15

$106.25

5.9x

1.3x

NR

1-Apr-19

B3/B

265

99.38

9.12%

780bp

1-Apr-19

1-Apr-15

$106.75

5.3x

2.0x

Hold

15-May-18

B2/B

455

106.00

6.78%

566bp

15-May-18

15-May-14

$104.00

6.5x

1.9x

Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold

15-Nov-16
30-May-13
1-Jun-27
15-Sep-27

Ba1/BBBa3/BBBa3/BBBa3/BB-

271
175
200
240

109.00
103.75
95.50
94.75

4.50%
3.31%
8.28%
7.84%

426bp
312bp
596bp
551bp

15-Nov-13
30-May-13
1-Jun-27
15-Sep-27

15-Nov-13
nc
nc
nc

$104.00
nc
nc
nc

1.0x
4.0x
4.0x
4.0x

3.1x
3.1x
3.1x
3.1x

Spread

YTW
Date

Next Call Data


Date
Price

Net
Leverage

Interest
Coverage

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Media: Broadcasting Avi Steiner (1-212) 270-5512

Coupon

Desc.

Entravision Communications
8.750%
Sr. Sec.
Fox Acquisition
13.375%
Senior
Gray Television
L+350
TL B
10.500%
Sr. Sec. 2nd Lien
LIN Television
L+375
TL B
8.375%
Senior
Local TV Finance
9.250%
Senior Toggle
Nexstar Broadcasting
8.875%
Sr. Sec. 2nd Lien
7.000%
Sr. Sub.
Sinclair Broadcast
L+225
TL A
L+300
TL B
9.250%
Sr Sec. 2nd Lien
8.375%
Senior
Univision Communications
L+200
Initial TL
L+425
Extended TL
6.875%
Sr. Sec.
7.875%
Sr. Sec.
8.500%
Senior
NEWSPAPER PUBLISHERS
Gannett
8.750%
Sr G'teed
10.000%
Sr G'teed
6.375%
Sr G'teed
10.000%
Sr G'teed
9.375%
Sr G'teed
7.125%
Sr G'teed
McClatchy
11.500%
Sr. Sec.
4.625%
Senior
5.750%
Senior
6.875%
Senior
Media General
11.750%
Sn. Sec.
New York Times Co.
Senior
5.000%
6.625%
Senior
Postmedia Network
12.500%
2nd/3rd Lien
MAGAZINE PUBLISHERS
American Media
11.500%
Sr. Sec 1st Lien
13.500%
Sr. Sec 2nd Lien
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

48

Recom.

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys/
S&P

Amount
O/S

Bid

Recent Quotes
Yield

Spread

YTW
Date

Next Call Data


Date
Price

Net
Leverage

Interest
Coverage

NR

1-Aug-17

B1/B

384

105.25

7.30%

656bp

1-Aug-16

1-Aug-13

$106.56

5.9x

1.5x

NR

15-Jul-16

Caa1/B-

200

108.50

5.40%

532bp

15-Jul-12

15-Jul-12

$106.69

4.8x

2.2x

NR
Buy

31-Dec-14
29-Jun-15

B2/B+
Caa2/CCC+

463
365

99.06
104.00

4.56%
8.32%

387bp
802bp

na
1-May-14

na
1-Nov-12

na
$107.88

4.9x
8.7x

1.5x
1.5x

NR
Hold

21-Dec-18
15-Apr-18

Ba3/BBCaa1/CCC+

259
200

100.33
103.75

4.89%
7.28%

417bp
660bp

na
15-Apr-16

na
15-Apr-14

na
$104.19

3.3x
4.9x

2.6x
2.6x

NR

15-Jun-15

Caa2/CCC+

231

101.88

7.52%

732bp

15-Jun-13

15-Jun-12

$102.31

6.1x

4.1x

Hold
NR

15-Apr-17
15-Jan-14

B3/B
Caa2/CCC+

325
151

106.75
98.13

6.91%
8.16%

624bp
790bp

15-Apr-16
15-Jan-14

15-Apr-14
nc

$104.44
nc

5.1x
6.7x

1.9x
1.9x

NR
NR
Hold
Hold

15-Mar-16
28-Oct-16
1-Nov-17
15-Oct-18

Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
B1/BBB2/B

113
402
500
229

98.67
99.73
110.50
108.00

3.50%
4.15%
5.01%
6.30%

279bp
343bp
477bp
553bp

na
na
1-Nov-13
15-Oct-16

na
na
1-Nov-13
15-Oct-14

na
na
$104.63
$104.19

1.4x
1.4x
3.3x
4.2x

2.5x
2.5x
2.5x
2.5x

Hold
Buy
Hold
Hold
Hold

29-Sep-14
31-Mar-17
15-May-19
1-Nov-20
15-May-21

B2/B+
B2/B+
B2/B+
B2/B+
Caa2/CCC+

457
5,645
1,200
750
815

98.26
92.62
100.25
103.75
97.50

3.39%
7.71%
6.81%
7.15%
8.91%

274bp
700bp
592bp
592bp
709bp

na
na
15-May-17
1-Nov-18
15-May-21

na
na
15-May-15
1-Nov-15
15-Nov-15

na
na
$103.44
$103.94
$104.25

8.6x
8.6x
8.6x
8.6x
9.5x

1.8x
1.8x
1.8x
1.8x
1.8x

NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR

15-Nov-14
1-Jun-15
1-Sep-15
1-Apr-16
15-Nov-17
1-Sep-18

Ba1/BB
Ba1/BB
Ba1/BB
Ba1/BB
Ba1/BB
Ba1/BB

250
67
250
193
250
250

111.50
115.75
106.00
116.00
113.25
105.50

4.01%
4.53%
4.44%
5.43%
3.58%
5.68%

361bp
402bp
388bp
476bp
334bp
493bp

15-Nov-14
1-Jun-15
1-Sep-15
1-Apr-16
15-Nov-13
1-Sep-16

nc
nc
nc
nc
15-Nov-13
1-Sep-14

nc
nc
nc
nc
$104.69
$103.56

1.2x
1.2x
1.2x
1.2x
1.2x
1.2x

6.6x
6.6x
6.6x
6.6x
6.6x
6.6x

Buy
Hold
Hold
Hold

15-Feb-17
1-Nov-14
1-Sep-17
15-Mar-29

B1/B
Caa2/CCC
Caa2/CCC
Caa2/CCC

851
81
337
276

104.00
90.75
76.00
56.00

10.20%
8.76%
11.92%
13.57%

956bp
836bp
1,096bp
1,115bp

15-Feb-16
1-Nov-14
1-Sep-17
15-Mar-29

15-Feb-13
nc
nc
nc

$108.63
nc
nc
nc

2.2x
4.4x
4.4x
4.4x

2.4x
2.4x
2.4x
2.4x

NR

15-Feb-17

Caa1/CCC+

300

91.00

14.39%

1,355bp

15-Feb-17

15-Feb-14

$105.88

5.6x

2.1x

NR
NR

15-Mar-15
15-Dec-16

B1/B+
B1/B+

250
225

100.75
105.25

4.72%
5.34%

425bp
432bp

15-Mar-15
15-Dec-16

nc
nc

nc
nc

1.5x
1.5x

4.2x
4.2x

NR

15-Jul-18

B3/B-

275

103.00

11.57%

1,085bp

15-Jul-16

15-Jul-14

$106.25

3.0x

2.9x

NR
NR

15-Dec-17
15-Jun-18

B2/B
Caa2/CCC+

365
105

89.50
75.00

14.25%
20.87%

1,323bp
1,973bp

15-Dec-17
15-Jun-18

15-Dec-13
15-Dec-13

$108.63
$110.13

3.6x
4.6x

1.8x
1.8x

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Media: Broadcasting Avi Steiner (1-212) 270-5512

Coupon

Desc.

Readers Digest
L+650bp
Sr Sec.
PRINTERS
Catalina Marketing
10.500%
Senior
11.625%
Sr. Sub.
0.000%
Sr Disc. HoldCo
Cenveo
8.875%
Sr. Sec 2nd Lien
11.500%
Sr. Sec 2nd Lien
7.875%
Sr. Sub.
Deluxe
7.375%
Senior G'teed
7.000%
Senior G'teed
5.125%
Senior
R.R. Donnelley
4.950%
Senior
5.500%
Senior
8.600%
Senior
6.125%
Senior
7.250%
Senior
8.250%
Senior
7.625%
Senior
6.625%
Senior
Valassis
6.625%
Senior
DIVERSIFIED
Cengage
L+225
Initial TL
L+550
Ext TL
11.500%
Sr Sec. 1st Lien Nts
10.500%
Senior
13.250%
Sr Sub Disc. Nts
Houghton Mifflin
10.500%
Sr. Sec.
Interpublic Group
6.250%
Senior
10.000%
Senior
Lions Gate
10.250%
Sr Sec. 2nd Lien Nts
MDC Partners
Senior
11.000%
Nielsen
11.625%
Senior OpCo
11.500%
Senior OpCo
7.750%
Senior OpCo
Warner Music Group
9.500%
Sr Sec OpCo
11.500%
Sr OpCo
13.750%
Sr HoldCo
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

49

Recom.

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys/
S&P

NR

15-Feb-17

B3/CCC

NR
NR
NR

1-Oct-15
1-Oct-17
15-Nov-15

Hold
Hold
Hold

Amount
O/S

Bid

Recent Quotes
Yield

525

86.25

13.42%

15-Feb-17

15-Feb-13

$104.00

3.1x

2.5x

B3/BCaa1/BCaa1/B-

330
160
295

96.25
86.75
40.00

11.84%
15.24%
27.30%

1,126bp
1,427bp
2,670bp

1-Oct-15
1-Oct-17
15-Nov-15

1-Oct-12
1-Oct-12
15-May-12

$102.63
$105.81
$70.77

3.5x
4.2x
5.5x

2.5x
2.5x
2.5x

1-Feb-18
15-May-17
1-Dec-13

B3/BCaa2/CCC+
Caa2/CCC+

400
225
165

94.00
90.75
94.50

10.27%
14.12%
11.67%

921bp
1,323bp
1,142bp

1-Feb-18
15-May-17
1-Dec-13

1-Feb-14
15-May-15
nc

$104.44
$105.75
nc

3.5x
4.9x
5.7x

1.9x
1.9x
1.9x

NR
NR
NR

1-Jun-15
15-Mar-19
1-Oct-14

Ba2/BBBa2/BBB1/B

200
200
254

102.00
103.00
102.00

5.51%
6.28%
4.26%

531bp
543bp
388bp

1-Jun-13
15-Mar-17
1-Oct-14

1-Jun-12
15-Mar-15
nc

$101.84
$103.50
nc

1.1x
1.1x
2.0x

7.3x
7.3x
7.3x

NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR

1-Apr-14
15-May-15
15-Aug-16
15-Jan-17
15-May-18
15-Mar-19
15-Jun-20
15-Apr-29

Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+

258
208
350
525
600
450
400
200

102.50
101.00
104.75
94.00
95.63
97.00
93.50
82.00

3.62%
5.14%
7.30%
7.65%
8.18%
8.84%
8.76%
8.67%

333bp
464bp
655bp
683bp
706bp
753bp
716bp
624bp

1-Apr-14
15-May-15
15-Aug-16
15-Jan-17
15-May-18
15-Mar-19
15-Jun-20
15-Apr-29

nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc

nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc

2.6x
2.6x
2.6x
2.6x
2.6x
2.6x
2.6x
2.6x

5.2x
5.2x
5.2x
5.2x
5.2x
5.2x
5.2x
5.2x

Hold

1-Feb-21

Ba3/BB-

260

102.50

6.17%

488bp

1-Feb-19

1-Feb-16

$103.31

1.6x

10.1x

NR
NR
NR
NR
NR

3-Jul-14
31-Jul-17
15-Apr-20
15-Jan-15
15-Jul-15

B2/B
B2/B
B2/B
Caa2/CCC
Caa2/CCC

2,107
1,295
725
1216
234

90.50
87.00
102.50
73.50
71.50

7.55%
9.81%
10.92%
24.22%
26.91%

697bp
863bp
1,004bp
2,379bp
2,637bp

na
na
15-Apr-18
15-Jan-15
15-Jul-15

na
na
15-Apr-16
15-Jul-12
15-Jul-12

na
na
$105.75
$102.63
$103.31

4.4x
4.4x
4.4x
5.8x
6.1x

2.2x
2.2x
2.2x
2.2x
2.2x

Spread

YTW
Date

Next Call Data


Date
Price

Net
Leverage

Interest
Coverage

NA

1-Jun-19

Caa3/NR

300

56.00

23.49%

2,213bp

1-Jun-19

1-Jun-15

$105.25

8.3x

2.1x

Hold
Hold

15-Nov-14
15-Jul-17

Baa3/BB+
Baa3/BB+

350
600

108.63
114.13

2.76%
2.40%

236bp
220bp

15-Nov-14
15-Jul-13

nc
15-Jul-13

nc
$105.00

2.1x
2.1x

6.0x
6.0x

NR

1-Nov-16

B1/B

436

109.75

6.70%

645bp

1-Nov-13

1-Nov-13

$105.13

4.0x

2.4x

NR

1-Nov-16

B2/B+

345

108.75

8.11%

752bp

1-Nov-15

1-Nov-13

$105.50

3.8x

3.0x

Hold
Hold
Hold

1-Feb-14
1-May-16
15-Oct-18

B2/BBB2/BBB2/BB-

215
325
1,080

115.00
114.75
110.00

2.96%
2.54%
4.92%

269bp
236bp
453bp

1-Feb-14
1-May-13
15-Oct-14

nc
1-May-13
15-Oct-14

nc
$105.75
$103.88

4.2x
4.2x
4.2x

3.5x
3.5x
3.5x

NR
NR
NR

15-Jun-16
1-Oct-18
1-Oct-19

Ba2/BBB3/BB3/B-

1,100
765
150

108.50
106.00
99.13

5.83%
10.04%
13.94%

563bp
907bp
1,098bp

15-Jun-13
1-Oct-17
1-Oct-19

15-Jun-13
1-Oct-14
1-Oct-15

$104.75
$108.63
$106.88

2.3x
4.0x
4.3x

2.4x
2.4x
2.4x

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Metals and Mining Dave Katz (1-212) 270-4593

Coupon

Desc.

STEEL COMPANIES
1
AK Steel Corp.
7.625%
Sr Nts
8.375%
Sr Nts
2
Essar Steel Algoma Inc.
9.375%
Sr Nts
9.875%
Sr Nts
Nucor Corp.
5.000%
Sr Nts
5.850%
Sr Nts
6.400%
Sr Nts
Steel Dynamics Inc.
7.375%
Sr Nts
6.750%
Sr Nts
7.750%
Sr Nts
7.625%
Sr Nts
3
United States Steel Corp.
6.050%
Sr Nts
7.000%
Sr Nts
7.375%
Sr Nts
7.500%
Sr Nts
6.650%
Sr Nts

Recom.

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

Buy
Buy

15-May-20
1-Apr-22

B2/BBB2/BB-

$550
$300

$95.50
$95.50

8.40%
9.07%

682bp
706bp

15-May-20
1-Apr-22

15-May-15
1-Apr-17

$103.81
$104.19

$272
$272

5.7x
5.7x

3.5x
3.5x

58%
58%

Buy
Buy

15-Mar-15
15-Jun-15

B3/B
Caa2/CCC

$400
$385

$102.875
$90.75

7.72%
13.55%

743bp
1304bp

15-Mar-14
15-Jun-15

15-Mar-13
15-Jun-12

$104.69
$102.47

$246
$246

2.8x
2.8x

4.2x
4.2x

95%
95%

NR
NR
NR

1-Dec-12
1-Jun-18
1-Dec-37

A2/A
A2/A
A2/A

$300
$500
$650

$102.80
$121.74
$129.63

0.49%
2.05%
4.45%

34bp
86bp
150bp

1-Dec-12
1-Jun-18
1-Dec-37

nc
nc
nc

nc
nc
nc

$1,940
$1,940
$1,940

11.7x
11.7x
11.7x

2.2x
2.2x
2.2x

28%
28%
28%

Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell

1-Nov-12
1-Apr-15
15-Apr-16
15-Mar-20

Ba2/BB+
Ba2/BB+
Ba2/BB+
Ba2/BB+

$420
$500
$500
$350

$102.50
$101.75
$103.50
$109.25

2.69%
4.86%
5.87%
5.38%

255bp
468bp
558bp
491bp

1-Nov-12
1-Apr-13
15-Apr-14
15-Mar-15

nc
1-Apr-13
15-Apr-13
15-Mar-15

nc
$100.00
$103.88
$103.81

$837
$837
$837
$837

4.7x
4.7x
4.7x
4.7x

2.8x
2.8x
2.8x
2.8x

48%
48%
48%
48%

Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold

1-Jun-17
1-Feb-18
1-Apr-20
15-Mar-22
1-Jun-37

B1/BB
B1/BB
B1/BB
B1/BB
B1/BB

$450
$500
$600
$400
$350

$101.25
$102.50
$102.00
$99.25
$83.50

5.76%
6.47%
7.04%
7.61%
8.21%

486bp
542bp
549bp
561bp
531bp

1-Jun-17
1-Feb-18
1-Apr-20
15-Mar-22
1-Jun-37

nc
nc
nc
15-Mar-17
nc

nc
nc
nc
$103.75
nc

$854
$854
$854
$854
$854

4.6x
4.6x
4.6x
4.6x
4.6x

4.7x
4.7x
4.7x
4.7x
4.7x

52%
52%
52%
52%
52%

Current

Offer

Note: EBITDA is Adjusted EBITDA. Interest Expense is based on LTM values.


1. AK Steel capitalization data is pro forma for refinancing of tax-expemt industrial revenue bonds and new 2022 notes.
2. Algoma enterprise value estimated using 6.0x multiple of normalized EBITDA. Data presented in Canadian dollar.
3. U.S. Steel capitalization data is pro forma for issuance of 2022 notes and retirement of 2013 notes.
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

50

Recent Quotes
YTW
Spread

YTW
Date

Next Call Data


Date
Price

EBITDA
LTM

EBITDA/
Interest
LTM

Debt/
EBITDA
LTM

Debt/
TEV

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Metals and Mining Dave Katz (1-212) 270-4593

Coupon

Desc.

COAL COMPANIES
Arch Coal, Inc.
6.750%
Sr Nts
8.750%
Sr Nts
7.000%
Sr Nts
7.250%
Sr Nts
7.250%
Sr Nts
1
Cloud Peak Energy
8.250%
Sr Nts
8.500%
Sr Nts
Consol Energy
8.000%
Sr Nts
8.250%
Sr Nts
6.375%
Sr Nts
Alpha Natural Resources
6.000%
Sr Nts
6.250%
Sr Nts
James River Coal Co.
7.875%
Sr Nts
Patriot Coal Corp.
8.250%
Sr Nts
Peabody Energy Corp.
7.375%
Sr Nts
6.000%
Sr Nts
6.500%
Sr Nts
6.250%
Sr Nts
7.875%
Sr Nts

Recom.

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold

1-Jul-13
1-Aug-16
15-Jun-19
1-Oct-20
15-Jun-21

B1/BBB1/B+
B1/B+
B1/B+
B1/B+

$450
$600
$1000
$500
$1000

$100.00
$103.25
$89.75
$89.75
$89.75

6.74%
7.61%
8.97%
9.01%
8.91%

654bp
707bp
760bp
734bp
708bp

1-Jul-13
1-Aug-15
15-Jun-19
1-Oct-20
15-Jun-21

nc
1-Aug-13
15-Jun-15
1-Oct-15
15-Jun-16

nc
$104.38
$103.50
$103.63
$103.63

$921
$921
$921
$921
$921

4.1x
4.1x
4.1x
4.1x
4.1x

4.4x
4.4x
4.4x
4.4x
4.4x

67%
67%
67%
67%
67%

Hold
Hold

15-Dec-17
15-Dec-19

B1/BBB1/BB-

$300
$300

$100.88
$101.75

7.96%
8.10%

735bp
708bp

15-Dec-15
15-Dec-17

15-Dec-13
15-Dec-14

$104.13
$104.25

$371
$371

11.1x
11.1x

1.6x
1.6x

56%
56%

Sell
Sell
Sell

1-Apr-17
1-Apr-20
1-Mar-21

B1/BB
B1/BB
B1/BB

$1500
$1250
$250

$103.13
$103.00
$94.00

7.08%
7.61%
7.30%

641bp
652bp
554bp

1-Apr-16
1-Apr-18
1-Mar-21

1-Apr-14
1-Apr-15
1-Mar-16

$104.00
$104.13
$103.19

$1,819
$1,819
$1,819

7.3x
7.3x
7.3x

1.8x
1.8x
1.8x

30%
30%
30%

NR
NR

1-Jun-19
1-Jun-21

Ba3/BB
Ba3/BB

$800
$700

$89.25
$89.00

8.01%
7.97%

665bp
615bp

1-Jun-19
1-Jun-21

1-Jun-14
1-Jun-16

$103.00
$103.13

$1,091
$1,091

10.3x
10.3x

2.8x
2.8x

53%
53%

NR

1-Apr-19

B2/B

$275

$65.00

16.52%

1520bp

1-Apr-19

1-Apr-15

$103.94

$139

3.2x

4.9x

104%

NR

30-Apr-18

B3/B

$250

$75.00

14.62%

1351bp

30-Apr-18

30-Apr-14

$100.00

$177

2.7x

2.6x

57%

Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy

1-Nov-16
15-Nov-18
15-Sep-20
15-Nov-21
1-Nov-26

Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+

$650
$1600
$650
$1500
$250

$109.25
$97.00
$98.25
$96.25
$103.00

5.07%
6.57%
6.78%
6.79%
7.53%

429bp
533bp
512bp
486bp
525bp

1-Nov-16
15-Nov-18
15-Sep-20
15-Nov-21
1-Nov-26

nc
nc
nc
nc
nc

nc
nc
nc
nc
nc

$2,129
$2,129
$2,129
$2,129
$2,129

9.7x
9.7x
9.7x
9.7x
9.7x

3.1x
3.1x
3.1x
3.1x
3.1x

49%
49%
49%
49%
49%

Note: EBITDA is Adjusted EBITDA. Interest Expense is based on LTM values.


1. Cloud Peak data is historical and not adjusted for structuring transactions.
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

51

Current

Bid

Recent Quotes
YTW
Spread

YTW
Date

Next Call Data


Date
Price

EBITDA
LTM

EBITDA/
Interest
LTM

Debt/
EBITDA
LTM

Debt/
TEV

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Metals and Mining Dave Katz (1-212) 270-4593

Coupon

Desc.

Recom.

MINING COMPANIES
1
Calcipar SA
6.875%
Sr Nts
NR
2
Consolidated Minerals Ltd
8.875%
Sr Nts
NR
3
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd
7.000%
Sr Nts
Buy
6.375%
Sr Nts
Buy
6.000%
Sr Nts
NR
6.875%
Sr Nts
Buy
8.250%
Sr Nts
Buy
6.875%
Sr Nts
NR
Midwest Vanadium Pty Ltd
11.500%
Sr Nts
Buy
Mirabela Nickel Pty
8.750%
Sr Nts
Hold
Quadra FNX Mining
7.750%
Sr Nts
NR
4
Taseko Mines Ltd
7.750%
Sr Nts
NR
Thompson Creek Mining Company Inc.
7.375%
Sr Nts
Hold

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

EBITDA
LTM

EBITDA/
Interest
LTM

Current

1-May-18

B1/BB-

$450

$102.25

6.35%

546bp

1-May-17

1-May-15

$103.44

253

3.4x

2.6x

39%

1-May-16

B3/B+

$405

$84.00

14.21%

1352bp

1-May-16

1-May-14

$104.44

$142

9.5x

3.1x

52%

1-Nov-15
1-Feb-16
1-Apr-17
1-Feb-18
1-Nov-19
1-Apr-22

B1/BBB1/BBB1/BBB1/BBB1/BBB1/BB-

$2040
$600
$1000
$900
$1500
$1000

$101.25
$99.50
$98.25
$99.25
$104.50
$96.25

6.46%
6.52%
6.42%
7.03%
7.25%
7.41%

606bp
588bp
555bp
598bp
625bp
540bp

1-Nov-14
1-Feb-16
1-Apr-17
1-Feb-18
1-Nov-17
1-Apr-22

1-Nov-12
1-Feb-13
1-Apr-15
1-Feb-14
1-Nov-15
1-Apr-17

$105.25
$104.78
$103.00
$105.16
$104.13
$103.44

$2,937
$2,937
$2,937
$2,937
$2,937
$2,937

5.0x
5.0x
5.0x
5.0x
5.0x
5.0x

2.8x
2.8x
2.8x
2.8x
2.8x
2.8x

37%
37%
37%
37%
37%
37%

15-Feb-18

Caa1/CCC+

$335

$66.75

21.83%

2077bp

15-Feb-18

15-Feb-15

$105.75

15-Apr-18

B3/CCC+

$395

$82.75

12.98%

1188bp

15-Apr-18

15-Apr-15

$104.38

$15

0.4x

nm

68%

15-Jun-19

B1/BB-

$500

$113.00

4.45%

393bp

15-Jun-15

15-Jun-15

$103.88

$426

nm

1.2x

22%

15-Apr-19

B3/B

$200

$95.13

8.69%

736bp

15-Apr-19

15-Apr-15

$103.88

$107

nm

2.3x

39%

1-Jun-18

Caa2/B

$350

$89.00

9.80%

867bp

1-Jun-18

1-Jun-14

$105.53

$295

109.2x

1.3x

32%

Note: EBITDA is Adjusted EBITDA. Interest Expense is based on LTM values.


1. Calcipar SA enterprise value based on 6.5x LTM EBITDA. Calcipar EBITDA presented in , other in US dollar.
2. Consolidated Minerals enterprise value based on 6.0x LTM EBITDA.
3. Fortescue Metals capitalization data is pro forma for the new 2017 and 2022 notes.
4. Taseko Mines Ltd individual bond outstanding amounts presented in $US. Other data presented in Canadian dollar.
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

52

Bid

Recent Quotes
YTW
Spread

YTW
Date

Next Call Data


Date
Price

Debt/
EBITDA
LTM

Debt/
TEV

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Metals and Mining Dave Katz (1-212) 270-4593

Coupon

Desc.

ALUMINUM COMPANIES
Century Aluminum Co.
8.000%
Sr Nts
1
Noranda Aluminum
4.659%
FRNs
2
Novelis Inc.
8.375%
Sr Nts
8.750%
Sr Nts
MISCELLANEOUS
ATKORE International
9.875%
Sr Sec Nts
3
JMC Steel Group
8.250%
Sr Nts
Metals USA
11.125%
Sr Sec Nts
Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co.
6.200%
Sr Nts
4
Russel Metals
6.375%
Sr Nts
SunCoke Energy, Inc.
7.625%
Sr Nts

Recom.

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

NR

15-May-14

NR/B

$250

$102.00

6.05%

586bp

15-May-13

15-May-12

$102.00

$218

8.8x

1.3x

32%

Hold

15-May-15

B3/B-

$275

na

na

nm

nm

14-May-12

$100.00

$236

11.0x

2.5x

55%

Hold
Hold

15-Dec-17
15-Dec-20

B2/B
B2/B

$1100
$1400

$106.50
$108.00

6.72%
7.21%

592bp
596bp

15-Dec-16
15-Dec-18

15-Dec-13
15-Dec-15

$106.28
$104.38

$1,093
$1,093

3.7x
3.7x

4.2x
4.2x

64%
64%

NR

1-Jan-18

B3/B

$410

$101.50

9.47%

865bp

1-Jan-17

1-Jan-14

$107.41

$123

2.5x

3.7x

58%

Buy

15-Mar-18

B3/B

$875

$103.00

7.51%

665bp

15-Mar-17

15-Mar-14

$106.19

$363

4.8x

3.8x

58%

Buy

1-Dec-15

B2/B+

$226

$104.31

6.88%

673bp

1-Dec-12

1-Dec-12

$101.85

$164

4.5x

2.9x

49%

NR

15-Nov-16

Baa3/BBB-

$0

$115.33

2.62%

183bp

15-Nov-16

nc

nc

$659

10.9x

2.0x

26%

NR

1-Mar-14

Ba1/BB

$142

$100.00

6.37%

609bp

1-Mar-14

nc

nc

$213

8.4x

1.4x

18%

Hold

1-Aug-19

B1/B+

$400

$101.50

7.27%

634bp

1-Aug-17

1-Aug-14

$105.72

$153

109.0x

4.8x

45%

Current

Bid

Recent Quotes
YTW
Spread

YTW
Date

Next Call Data


Date
Price

Note: EBITDA is Adjusted EBITDA. Interest Expense is based on LTM values.


1. Noranda Aluminum capitalization data is pro forma for the debt refinancing, a $75mn tender of the 2015 notes, and a $88mn dividend payment.
2. Novelis enterprise value estimated using a 6.5x multiple of estimated normalized mid-cycle EBITDA.
3. JMC Steel EV estimated using a 7.0x multiple of LTM EBITDA. Capitalization data is pro forma for the for Lakeside Steel transaction and the $150mn add-on to the 8.75% notes and $100mn add-on to the term loan.
4. Russel Metals data presented in Canadian dollar.
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

53

EBITDA
LTM

EBITDA/
Interest
LTM

Debt/
EBITDA
LTM

Debt/
TEV

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Paper and Packaging Tarek Hamid (1-212) 834-5468

Issuer

Description

Recommendation

PLASTIC PACKAGING
Berry Plastics (BERRY)
L+200
Term Loan C
8.250% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
9.500% Sr Sec Nts (2nd Lien)
9.750% Sr Sec Nts (2nd Lien)
10.250%
Sr Sub Nts
Plastipak Holdings (PLASPK)
8.500%
Sr Nts
10.625%
Sr Nts
Solo Cup Co. (SOLOC)
10.500%
Sr Sec Nts
8.500%
Sr Sub Nts

Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold

3-Apr-15
15-Nov-15
15-May-18
15-Jan-21
1-Mar-16

Hold
Hold

15-Dec-15
15-Aug-19

B3/B
B3/B

NR
NR

1-Nov-13
15-Feb-14

GLASS AND METAL CONTAINERS


Ardagh Glass (ARGID)
7.375%
Sr Sec Nts
Hold
9.125%
Sr Nts
Buy
Ball Corporation (BLL)
L+175
Term Loan A
Hold
7.125%
Sr Nts
Hold
6.625%
Sr Nts
Hold
7.375%
Sr Nts
Hold
6.750%
Sr Nts
Hold
5.750%
Sr Nts
Hold
Bway Holding (BWY)
L+325
Term Loan B
NR
10.000%
Sr Nts
NR
Crown Holdings (CCK)
6.250%
Sr Nts
Hold
7.625%
Sr Nts
Hold
7.125%
Sr Nts
Buy
7.375%
Debs
Buy
7.500%
Debs
Buy
O-I (OI)
7.375%
Sr Nts
Hold
7.800%
Sr Debs
Buy
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

54

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

LTM
Size

B1/B
$1,200.0
B1/B
$370.0
Caa1/CCC $500.0
Caa1/CCC $800.0
Caa2/CCC $168.0

Recent Quotes
Bid
YTW
Spread

YTW
Date

Next Call
Date
Price

Current
Yield

Adj. EBITDA

Adj. EBITDA
Margin

Adj. EBITDA/
Int. Exp.

Net Debt/Adj.
EBITDA

97 1/4
106 1/4
104 1/4
107 1/4
102 1/2

3.70%
4.32%
8.25%
8.32%
8.64%

299bp
417bp
755bp
705bp
847bp

na
15-Nov-12
15-May-16
15-Jan-19
1-Mar-13

na
15-Nov-12
15-May-14
15-Jan-16
1-Mar-13

na
104 1/8
104 3/4
104 7/8
101 2/7

2.54%
7.76%
9.11%
9.09%
10.00%

$758.0
$758.0
$758.0
$758.0
$758.0

16.3%
16.3%
16.3%
16.3%
16.3%

2.4x
2.4x
2.4x
2.4x
2.4x

3.0x
3.0x
5.1x
5.1x
5.9x

$250.0
$225.0

103
113 1/4

5.93%
6.54%

578bp
618bp

15-Dec-12
15-Aug-14

15-Dec-12
15-Aug-14

101 3/7
105 1/3

8.25%
9.38%

$239.4
$239.4

10.4%
10.4%

3.5x
3.5x

2.8x
2.8x

B2/B
Caa2/CCC

$300.0
$325.0

101 1/4
100 1/4

9.60%
8.34%

936bp
807bp

1-Nov-13
15-Feb-14

1-May-12
nc

100
nc

10.37%
8.48%

$76.2
$76.2

4.7%
4.7%

1.1x
1.1x

3.6x
7.9x

15-Oct-17
15-Oct-20

Ba3/BBB3/B-

$510.0
$450.0

106
106

5.84%
7.93%

506bp
671bp

15-Oct-16
15-Oct-18

15-Oct-14
15-Oct-15

103 2/3
104 4/7

6.96%
8.61%

555.5
555.5

16.9%
16.9%

2.1x
2.1x

2.3x
4.5x

21-Dec-15
1-Sep-16
15-Mar-18
1-Sep-19
15-Sep-20
15-May-21

Ba1/BBBBa1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+

$200.0
$375.0
$57.3
$325.0
$500.0
$500.0

99 1/3
108 3/4
102 1/5
110 1/2
109
105 5/8

2.77%
3.13%
5.31%
4.18%
4.51%
4.74%

203bp
290bp
513bp
381bp
405bp
374bp

na
1-Sep-13
15-Mar-13
1-Sep-14
15-Mar-15
15-Nov-17

na
1-Sep-13
15-Mar-13
1-Sep-14
15-Mar-15
15-Nov-15

na
103 4/7
101 1/9
103 2/3
103 3/8
102 7/8

2.24%
6.55%
6.48%
6.67%
6.19%
5.44%

$1,168.3
$1,168.3
$1,168.3
$1,168.3
$1,168.3
$1,168.3

13.5%
13.5%
13.5%
13.5%
13.5%
13.5%

6.6x
6.6x
6.6x
6.6x
6.6x
6.6x

0.5x
2.5x
2.5x
2.5x
2.5x
2.5x

23-Feb-18
15-Jun-18

Ba3/B
B3/CCC+

$470.7
$202.6

99 5/6
109

4.89%
7.44%

358bp
673bp

na
15-Jun-16

na
15-Jun-14

na
105

4.51%
9.17%

$154.0
$154.0

13.2%
13.2%

2.2x
2.2x

3.1x
4.5x

1-Feb-21
15-May-17
15-Aug-18
15-Dec-26
15-Dec-96

Ba3/BB
Ba3/BB
Ba1/BB
B1/BBB1/BB-

700.0
$400.0
500.0
$350.0
$64.0

107 1/4
107 1/4
106 1/4
104
83 1/2

4.89%
4.17%
5.48%
6.93%
8.98%

425bp
399bp
494bp
464bp
262bp

1-Feb-16
15-May-13
15-Aug-16
15-Dec-26
15-Dec-96

nc
15-May-13
15-Aug-14
nc
nc

nc
103 4/5
103 4/7
nc
nc

5.83%
7.11%
6.71%
7.09%
8.98%

$1,129.0
$1,129.0
$1,129.0
$1,129.0
$1,129.0

13.1%
13.1%
13.1%
13.1%
13.1%

5.1x
5.1x
5.1x
5.1x
5.1x

2.8x
2.8x
2.8x
2.8x
2.8x

15-May-16
15-May-18

Ba3/BB
B1/BB-

$600.0
$250.0

110 3/4
111 1/2

4.46%
5.54%

377bp
443bp

15-May-16
15-May-18

nc
nc

nc
nc

6.66%
7.00%

$1,253.0
$1,253.0

17.0%
17.0%

4.1x
4.1x

2.7x
2.9x

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Paper and Packaging Tarek Hamid (1-212) 834-5468

Issuer

Description

Maturity

Size

Hold
Hold
Hold

16-Mar-17
15-Jun-17
1-Oct-18

Ba2/BBB
B2/BB+
B2/BB+

$1,000.0
$425.0
$250.0

99 4/7
110 1/2
110

3.42%
4.18%
5.02%

236bp
398bp
464bp

na
15-Jun-13
1-Oct-14

na
15-Jun-13
1-Oct-14

NR
NR

1-Feb-17
1-Aug-19

Ba2/BB
Ba2/BB

$300.0
$250.0

107 1/2
112

4.97%
5.71%

414bp
431bp

1-Feb-17
1-Aug-19

Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold

1-Mar-17
1-Sep-19
15-Jun-27
15-Jan-30
15-Feb-31
15-Nov-32

Ba1/BBB
Ba1/BBB
Ba1/BBB
Ba1/BBB
Ba1/BBB
Ba1/BBB

$150.0
$250.0
$97.5
$400.0
$300.0
$76.1

111 2/7
117 4/5
112 1/2
112 4/5
109 5/7
96 2/3

4.73%
4.51%
6.21%
6.93%
7.01%
7.11%

388bp
309bp
389bp
446bp
448bp
448bp

NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR

9-Aug-18
9-Feb-18
15-Oct-16
15-Oct-16
15-Apr-19
15-Feb-21
15-May-18
15-Dec-16
15-Apr-19
15-Feb-21
15-Jun-17
15-Dec-25
15-Jun-17

Ba3/BBBa3/BBBa3/BBBa3/BBBa3/BBBa3/BBCaa1/BCaa1/BCaa1/BCaa1/BCaa1/BCaa1/BCaa1/B-

$2,000.0
$2,325.0
$1,125.0
450.0
$1,500.0
$1,000.0
$1,000.0
480.0
$1,500.0
$1,000.0
$299.7
$276.4
$420.0

101
101
105 1/4
103 3/4
102 1/4
100 1/4
98 1/8
90 1/2
96 1/4
91 1/2
92
80
87

NR
NR

27-May-16
15-Mar-13

NR/NR
Ba1/BB+

$1,475.0
$80.5

Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy

3-Oct-18
15-Jun-17
15-Sep-21
15-Jul-33
15-Jul-13
15-Sep-19

Ba1/BB+
B1/BB
B1/BB
B1/BB
B1/BB
B1/BB

$790.0
$400.0
$750.0
$450.0
$400.0
$750.0

Recommendation

PAPER AND OTHER PACKAGING


Graphic Packaging (GPK)
L+225
Term Loan A
9.500%
Sr Nts
7.875%
Sr Nts
Greif Inc. (GEF)
6.750%
Sr Nts
7.750%
Sr Nts
MeadWestvaco (MWV)
7.350%
Sr Nts
7.375%
Sr Nts
7.500%
Sr Nts
8.200%
Sr Nts
7.950%
Debs
6.800%
Sr Nts
Reynolds Group (REYNOL)
L+525
Term Loan C
L+525
Term Loan B
7.750% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
7.750% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
7.125% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
6.875% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
8.500%
Sr Nts
8.000%
Sr Nts
9.000%
Sr Nts
8.250%
Sr Nts
8.125%
Sr Nts
7.950%
Sr Nts
9.500%
Sr Sub Nts
Rock-Tenn Co. (RKT)
L+200
Term Loan A
5.625%
Sr Sec Nts
Sealed Air Corp. (SEE)
L+375
Term Loan B
7.875%
Sr Nts
8.375%
Sr Nts
6.875%
Sr Nts
5.625%
Sr Nts
8.125%
Sr Nts

Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

55

LTM

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

Recent Quotes
Bid
YTW
Spread

YTW
Date

Next Call
Date
Price

Current
Yield

Adj. EBITDA

Adj. EBITDA
Margin

Adj. EBITDA/
Int. Exp.

Net Debt/Adj.
EBITDA

na
104 3/4
104

2.73%
8.60%
7.16%

$591.3
$591.3
$591.3

14.1%
14.1%
14.1%

4.1x
4.1x
4.1x

2.4x
3.5x
3.5x

nc
nc

nc
nc

6.28%
6.92%

$526.5
$526.5

12.4%
12.4%

6.6x
6.6x

2.6x
2.6x

1-Mar-17
1-Sep-19
15-Jun-27
15-Jan-30
15-Feb-31
15-Nov-32

nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc

nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc

6.60%
6.26%
6.67%
7.27%
7.25%
7.04%

$1,031.0
$1,031.0
$1,031.0
$1,031.0
$1,031.0
$1,031.0

17.0%
17.0%
17.0%
17.0%
17.0%
17.0%

5.7x
5.7x
5.7x
5.7x
5.7x
5.7x

1.4x
1.4x
1.4x
1.4x
1.4x
1.4x

6.70%
532bp
6.52%
524bp
4.74%
460bp
6.53%
618bp
6.54%
577bp
6.83%
553bp
8.90%
778bp
10.63% 1,001bp
9.75%
842bp
9.70%
795bp
10.15% 924bp
10.78% 854bp
13.03% 1,230bp

na
na
15-Oct-12
15-Oct-15
15-Oct-16
15-Feb-19
15-May-18
15-Dec-16
15-Apr-19
15-Feb-21
15-Jun-17
15-Dec-25
15-Jun-17

na
na
15-Oct-12
15-Oct-12
15-Oct-14
15-Feb-16
15-May-14
15-Jun-12
15-Oct-14
15-Feb-16
nc
nc
nc

na
na
103 7/8
103 7/8
103 4/7
103 4/9
104 1/4
102
104 1/2
104 1/8
nc
nc
nc

6.43%
6.19%
7.36%
7.47%
6.97%
6.86%
8.66%
8.84%
9.35%
9.02%
8.83%
9.94%
10.92%

$2,109.5
$2,109.5
$2,109.5
$2,109.5
$2,109.5
$2,109.5
$2,109.5
$2,109.5
$2,109.5
$2,109.5
$2,109.5
$2,109.5
$2,109.5

16.4%
16.4%
16.4%
16.4%
16.4%
16.4%
16.4%
16.4%
16.4%
16.4%
16.4%
16.4%
16.4%

1.9x
1.9x
1.9x
1.9x
1.9x
1.9x
1.9x
1.9x
1.9x
1.9x
1.9x
1.9x
1.9x

4.5x
4.5x
4.5x
4.5x
4.5x
4.5x
7.3x
7.3x
7.3x
7.3x
8.2x
8.2x
8.2x

99 3/5
101 7/8

3.03%
3.52%

214bp
335bp

na
15-Mar-13

na
nc

na
nc

2.51%
5.52%

$1,160.7
$1,160.7

12.2%
12.2%

11.6x
11.6x

2.6x
3.0x

101
108 1/3
111
95 1/8
103 1/6
109 1/4

5.19%
3.84%
6.32%
7.33%
3.02%
6.09%

376bp
364bp
556bp
466bp
282bp
512bp

na
15-Jun-13
15-Sep-16
15-Jul-33
15-Jul-13
15-Sep-17

na
15-Jun-13
15-Sep-16
nc
nc
15-Sep-15

na
104
104 1/5
nc
nc
104

4.71%
7.27%
7.55%
7.23%
5.45%
7.44%

$1,119.3
$1,119.3
$1,119.3
$1,119.3
$1,119.3
$1,119.3

13.8%
13.8%
13.8%
13.8%
13.8%
13.8%

3.7x
3.7x
3.7x
3.7x
3.7x
3.7x

1.4x
3.9x
3.9x
3.9x
3.9x
3.9x

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Paper and Packaging Tarek Hamid (1-212) 834-5468

Issuer

Description

Maturity

Size

Hold

15-Oct-18

B1/BB-

$586.2

114 1/2

5.86%

NR
NR

15-Jun-15
15-Dec-15

B1/B+
B3/CCC+

$305.0
$161.8

103
92 3/4

NR

15-Oct-14

Caa1/B+

$219.6

Hold
Hold

1-Nov-17
1-Apr-20

Ba3/BB
Ba3/BB

Sell
Sell
Sell

15-Feb-13
15-Dec-17
15-Jan-20

NR
NR

Recommendation

PULP AND PAPER


AbitibiBowater (ABH)
10.250% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
Appleton Papers (APPPAP)
10.500% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
11.250% Sr Sec Nts (2nd Lien)
Boise Cascade LLC (BOISE)
7.125%
Sr Sub Nts
Boise Inc. (BZ)
9.000%
Sr Nts
8.000%
Sr Nts
Cascades Inc. (CASCN)
7.250%
Sr Nts
7.750%
Sr Nts
7.875%
Sr Nts
Catalyst Paper (CTLCN)
11.000%
Sr Sec Nts
7.375%
Sr Nts
Clearwater Paper (CLW)
10.625%
Sr Nts
Domtar (UFS)
5.375%
Sr Nts
7.125%
Sr Nts
9.500%
Debs
10.750%
Sr Nts
Georgia-Pacific (GP)
8.250%
Guar Nts
5.400%
Guar Nts
7.700%
Debs
8.000%
Sr Nts
7.375%
Debs
7.250%
Debs
7.750%
Sr Nts
8.875%
Sr Nts
Louisiana-Pacific (LPX)
13.000% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)

Recent Quotes
Bid
YTW
Spread

547bp

YTW
Date

Next Call
Date
Price

Current
Yield

Adj. EBITDA

Adj. EBITDA
Margin

Adj. EBITDA/
Int. Exp.

Net Debt/Adj.
EBITDA

15-Oct-14

15-Oct-14

105 1/8

8.95%

$481.0

10.1%

5.1x

0.5x

8.67%
840bp
13.82% 1,321bp

8-Feb-14
15-Dec-15

8-Feb-13
nc

105 1/4
nc

10.19%
12.13%

$94.5
$94.5

11.0%
11.0%

1.5x
1.5x

3.1x
5.0x

99 7/8

7.18%

679bp

15-Oct-14

15-Oct-12

100

7.13%

$9.5

0.4%

0.5x

nm

$300.0
$300.0

110 1/8
109 3/4

4.94%
5.64%

470bp
516bp

1-Nov-13
1-Apr-15

1-Nov-13
1-Apr-15

104 1/2
104

8.17%
7.29%

$340.2
$340.2

14.2%
14.2%

5.4x
5.4x

2.1x
2.1x

Ba3/B+
Ba3/B+
Ba3/B+

$674.0
$500.0
$250.0

98 3/4
98 1/2
97 1/4

8.82%
8.08%
8.36%

866bp
706bp
686bp

15-Feb-13
15-Dec-17
15-Jan-20

nc
15-Dec-13
15-Jan-15

nc
103 7/8
104

7.34%
7.87%
8.10%

$229.0
$229.0
$229.0

6.3%
6.3%
6.3%

2.2x
2.2x
2.2x

6.5x
6.5x
6.5x

15-Dec-16
1-Mar-14

Caa3/D
C/C

$280.4
$250.0

52 1/2 30.82%
0bp
1 1/2 250.00% 9,999bp

15-Dec-16
1-Mar-14

15-Dec-12

103

20.95%
491.67%

$67.5
$67.5

5.3%
5.3%

0.9x
0.9x

6.6x
10.5x

NR

15-Jun-16

Ba3/BB

$150.0

111 7/8

4.52%

432bp

15-Jun-13

15-Jun-13

105 1/3

9.50%

$192.3

10.6%

4.3x

2.6x

Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy

1-Dec-13
15-Aug-15
1-Aug-16
1-Jun-17

Baa3/BBBBaa3/BBBBaa3/BBBBaa3/BBB-

$72.2
$166.3
$93.0
$277.8

105
110 3/4
120 3/4
128 5/8

2.22%
3.66%
4.17%
4.44%

197bp
312bp
343bp
354bp

1-Dec-13
15-Aug-15
1-Aug-16
1-Jun-17

nc
nc
nc
nc

nc
nc
nc
nc

5.12%
6.43%
7.87%
8.36%

$1,088.0
$1,088.0
$1,088.0
$1,088.0

19.4%
19.4%
19.4%
19.4%

12.5x
12.5x
12.5x
12.5x

0.4x
0.4x
0.4x
0.4x

Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy

1-May-16
1-Nov-20
15-Jun-15
15-Jan-24
1-Dec-25
1-Jun-28
15-Nov-29
15-May-31

Baa3/ABaa3/ABaa3/ABaa3/ABaa3/ABaa3/ABaa3/ABaa3/A-

$750.0
$1,250.0
$250.0
$500.0
$250.0
$300.0
$500.0
$400.0

110 1/7
112 1/2
117
129 1/3
123 3/4
118 2/5
126 2/7
136 3/4

2.27%
3.68%
2.12%
4.72%
4.96%
5.51%
5.41%
5.69%

209bp
199bp
160bp
260bp
273bp
314bp
295bp
314bp

1-May-13
1-Nov-20
15-Jun-15
15-Jan-24
1-Dec-25
1-Jun-28
15-Nov-29
15-May-31

1-May-13
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc

104 1/8
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc

7.49%
4.80%
6.58%
6.19%
5.96%
6.12%
6.14%
6.49%

$3,477.0
$3,477.0
$3,477.0
$3,477.0
$3,477.0
$3,477.0
$3,477.0
$3,477.0

18.4%
18.4%
18.4%
18.4%
18.4%
18.4%
18.4%
18.4%

4.9x
4.9x
4.9x
4.9x
4.9x
4.9x
4.9x
4.9x

2.0x
2.0x
2.0x
2.0x
2.0x
2.0x
2.0x
2.0x

Sell

15-Mar-17

Ba3/BBB-

$243.8

96 1/2

4.50%

433bp

15-Mar-13

15-Mar-13

88 1/2

13.47%

($17.0)

(1.3%)

nm

nm

Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

56

LTM

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Paper and Packaging Tarek Hamid (1-212) 834-5468

Issuer

Description

Maturity

Size

Buy
Buy
Hold
Hold
Hold

8-Mar-13
31-Dec-14
1-May-12
1-May-12
1-May-13

NR/NR
D/D
D/D
D/D
D/D

$250.0
$1,770.0
$225.0
$806.0
$200.0

100 6/7
66 1/2
4
4
1/8

8.00%
-

700bp
-

na
31-Dec-14
12-Apr-12
1-May-12
1-May-13

na
31-Mar-12
1-May-11
1-May-11
1-May-11

Buy
Buy

1-Jul-12
15-Feb-17

Ba3/BBBa3/BB-

$240.0
$200.0

101
101 1/2

2.38%
7.32%

230bp
648bp

1-Jul-12
15-Feb-17

Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy

1-Aug-14
1-Aug-14
15-Apr-21
15-Jun-32

Ba2/BB
Ba2/BB
Ba2/BB
B2/B

350.0
$300.0
$350.0
$221.0

107
108 1/2
93
80 1/2

6.02%
3.09%
7.72%
9.72%

580bp
300bp
593bp
711bp

NR

15-Dec-18

B3/B-

$255.0

106 1/2

9.49%

Buy
Buy
Hold
Buy

15-Jan-19
1-Aug-14
1-Feb-19
1-Aug-16

Ba2/BBB2/B
B2/B
Caa1/CCC+

$345.0
$250.0
$396.0
$300.0

102 3/4
84
55 1/2
64

Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold

1-Mar-13
1-Jul-13
1-Aug-17
1-Oct-19
15-Jul-23
15-Jan-25
15-Mar-25
15-Feb-26
1-Oct-27
15-Mar-32
15-Dec-33

104 2/7
107
110 7/9
115 1/9
106
115 2/3
112
106 1/3
106 4/7
106 3/7
102 7/8

Recommendation

NewPage Corporation (NEWPAG)


L+750
DIP Term Loan
11.375% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
6.524% Sr FRN (L+600, 2nd Lien)
10.000% Sr Sec Nts (2nd Lien)
12.000%
Sr Sub Nts
Norbord (NBDCN)
7.250% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
6.450% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
Sappi (SAPSJ)
11.750%
Sr Sec Nts
12.000%
Sr Sec Nts
6.625% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
7.500%
Sr Nts
Tembec Industries (TMBCN)
11.250% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
Verso Paper (VRS)
11.750% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
4.024% Sr FRN (L+375, 2nd Lien)
8.750% Sr Sec Nts (2nd Lien)
11.375%
Sr Sub Nts
Weyerhaeuser (WY)
7.500%
Sr Nts
7.250%
Sr Nts
6.950%
Sr Nts
7.375%
Sr Nts
7.125%
Sr Nts
8.500%
Sr Nts
7.950%
Sr Nts
7.700%
Sr Nts
6.950%
Sr Nts
7.375%
Sr Nts
6.875%
Sr Nts

Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

57

LTM

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

Ba1/BBB- $155.6
Ba1/BBB- $128.5
Ba1/BBB- $280.8
Ba1/BBB- $500.0
Ba1/BBB- $191.1
Ba1/BBB- $300.0
Ba1/BBB- $136.0
Ba1/BBB- $150.0
Ba1/BBB- $300.0
Ba1/BBB- $1,250.0
Ba1/BBB- $275.0

Recent Quotes
Bid
YTW
Spread

YTW
Date

Next Call
Date
Price

Current
Yield

Adj. EBITDA

Adj. EBITDA
Margin

Adj. EBITDA/
Int. Exp.

Net Debt/Adj.
EBITDA

na
105
100
100
100

8.92%
17.11%
163.09%
250.00%
9600.00%

$324.0
$324.0
$324.0
$324.0
$324.0

9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%

0.8x
0.8x
0.8x
0.8x
0.8x

0.3x
6.3x
9.5x
9.5x
10.1x

nc
nc

nc
nc

7.18%
6.35%

$45.0
$45.0

4.7%
4.7%

1.4x
1.4x

9.4x
9.4x

1-Aug-13
1-Aug-12
15-Apr-21
15-Jun-32

1-Aug-12
1-Aug-12
15-Apr-16
nc

105 7/8
106
103 1/3
nc

10.98%
11.06%
7.12%
9.32%

$769.0
$769.0
$769.0
$769.0

11.0%
11.0%
11.0%
11.0%

2.7x
2.7x
2.7x
2.7x

2.2x
2.2x
2.2x
2.2x

868bp

15-Dec-16

15-Dec-14

105 5/8

10.56%

$95.0

5.5%

3.2x

2.1x

11.09%
12.24%
21.48%
25.66%

1,005bp
1,177bp
2,020bp
2,493bp

15-Jan-18
12-Apr-12
1-Feb-19
1-Aug-16

15-Jan-15
13-Sep-10
1-Feb-15
1-Aug-12

108 4/5
100
104 3/8
103 4/5

11.44%
4.79%
15.77%
17.77%

$202.5
$202.5
$202.5
$202.5

11.8%
11.8%
11.8%
11.8%

1.7x
1.7x
1.7x
1.7x

1.2x
4.1x
4.1x
5.5x

2.52%
1.39%
4.63%
4.93%
6.36%
6.66%
6.56%
6.98%
6.28%
6.78%
6.62%

236bp
119bp
369bp
349bp
427bp
448bp
437bp
474bp
394bp
419bp
392bp

1-Mar-13
1-Jul-13
1-Aug-17
1-Oct-19
15-Jul-23
15-Jan-25
15-Mar-25
15-Feb-26
1-Oct-27
15-Mar-32
15-Dec-33

nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc

nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc

7.19%
6.78%
6.27%
6.41%
6.72%
7.35%
7.10%
7.24%
6.52%
6.93%
6.68%

$1,005.0
$1,005.0
$1,005.0
$1,005.0
$1,005.0
$1,005.0
$1,005.0
$1,005.0
$1,005.0
$1,005.0
$1,005.0

16.2%
16.2%
16.2%
16.2%
16.2%
16.2%
16.2%
16.2%
16.2%
16.2%
16.2%

3.0x
3.0x
3.0x
3.0x
3.0x
3.0x
3.0x
3.0x
3.0x
3.0x
3.0x

3.5x
3.5x
3.5x
3.5x
3.5x
3.5x
3.5x
3.5x
3.5x
3.5x
3.5x

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Retail Carla Casella, CFA (1-212) 270-6798

Coupon

Description

Bon-Ton Stores, Inc.


10.250%
Sr Nts
Brown Shoe Company Inc.
7.125%
Sr Nts
Burlington Coat Factory
10.000%
Sr Nts
Claires Stores, Inc.
9.000%
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
8.875%
Sr Sec Nts (2nd Lien)
9.250%
Sr Nts
9.625%
Sr Toggle Nts
10.500%
Sr Sub Nts
Dillards, Inc.
6.625%
Sr Nts
7.130%
Sr Nts
7.000%
Sr Nts
Dollar General Corp.
11.875%
Sr Sub Toggle Nts
Gymboree Corporation
9.125%
Sr Nts
HSN, Inc.
11.250%
Sr Nts
1
JCPenney
9.000%
Sr Nts
6.875%
Sr Nts
7.650%
Debs
7.950%
Debs
5.750%
Sr Nts
5.650%
Sr Nts
7.125%
Debs
6.375%
Sr Nts
7.400%
Debs
7.625%
Debs

LTM EBITDAR/
(Net Int + 1/3 Rent)

(LTM EBITDA/
Capex)/
(Net Int)

Adj. Net Debt/


LTM
EBITDAR

TEV/
EBITDA

Recom.

Maturity

Hold

15-Mar-14

Caa2/CCC+

480.0

84

20.78%

2,050bp

14-May-12

100.00

$170.1

2.2x

1.1x

6.1x

6.0x

Hold

15-May-19

B3/B

200.0

97

7.68%

633bp

15-May-14

105.34

$113.7

3.5x

2.9x

5.9x

6.3x

Buy

15-Feb-19

Caa1/CCC

450.0

103 1/2

9.08%

824bp

15-Feb-15

105.00

$343.0

2.9x

1.7x

5.8x

na

Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold

15-Mar-19
15-Mar-19
1-Jun-15
1-Jun-15
1-Jun-17

B3/B
Caa3/CCC
Caa3/CCC
Caa3/CCC
Ca/CCC

500.0
450.0
220.3
310.9
259.6

103
87 5/8
84
84 1/2
77

8.34%
11.52%
15.93%
16.12%
17.46%

726bp
1,020bp
1,542bp
1,561bp
1,656bp

15-Mar-15
15-Mar-15
1-Jun-12
1-Jun-12
1-Jun-12

106.75
104.44
102.31
102.41
105.25

$266.1
$266.1
$266.1
$266.1
$266.1

1.9x
1.9x
1.9x
1.9x
1.9x

1.1x
1.1x
1.1x
1.1x
1.1x

4.4x
7.8x
7.7x
7.7x
8.2x

na
na
na
na
na

Hold
Hold
Hold

15-Jan-18
1-Aug-18
1-Dec-28

B2/BB
B2/BB
B2/BB

87.2
162.1
145.8

101 1/2
104
92 1/2

6.31%
6.35%
7.81%

526bp
518bp
541bp

nc
nc
nc

nc
nc
nc

$679.2
$679.2
$679.2

8.3x
8.3x
8.3x

7.8x
7.8x
7.8x

1.5x
1.5x
1.5x

5.6x
5.6x
5.6x

Sell

15-Jul-17

B1/BB-

450.7

108 1/4

2.26%

218bp

15-Jul-12

105.94

$1,808.9

6.1x

6.3x

2.9x

10.0x

Hold

1-Dec-18

Caa1/CCC+

400.0

90 1/2

11.19%

994bp

1-Dec-14

104.56

$268.2

3.6x

3.6x

5.0x

na

NR

1-Aug-16

Ba2/BB

240.0

108 1/4

2.03%

194bp

1-Aug-12

105.63

$300.0

8.2x

8.2x

0.2x

na

Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold

1-Aug-12
15-Oct-15
15-Aug-16
1-Apr-17
15-Feb-18
1-Jun-20
15-Nov-23
15-Oct-36
1-Apr-37
1-Mar-97

Ba1/BB
Ba1/BB
Ba1/BB
Ba1/BB
Ba1/BB
Ba1/BB
Ba1/BB
Ba1/BB
Ba1/BB
Ba1/BB

230.0
200.0
200.0
285.0
300.0
400.0
255.0
400.0
326.0
500.0

102 1/8
107 3/4
109 1/2
111
101 3/4
96 3/4
104 1/4
87 1/2
96 1/2
89 3/4

1.65%
4.46%
5.17%
5.39%
5.39%
6.16%
6.59%
7.50%
7.72%
8.50%

155bp
388bp
443bp
453bp
433bp
457bp
448bp
463bp
483bp
212bp

nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
Putable
Make Whole

nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
na
T+20

$938.0
$938.0
$938.0
$938.0
$938.0
$938.0
$938.0
$938.0
$938.0
$938.0

3.8x
3.8x
3.8x
3.8x
3.8x
3.8x
3.8x
3.8x
3.8x
3.8x

1.3x
1.3x
1.3x
1.3x
1.3x
1.3x
1.3x
1.3x
1.3x
1.3x

3.2x
3.2x
3.2x
3.2x
3.2x
3.2x
3.2x
3.2x
3.2x
3.2x

9.5x
9.5x
9.5x
9.5x
9.5x
9.5x
9.5x
9.5x
9.5x
9.5x

Amount
Outst. ($ mn)

Bid

Recent Quotes
YTW
Spread

1. JCPenney covered by Virginia Chambless.


Note: Ratios are calculated using EBITDAR, and Adjusted Debt (Net Debt + Rent x 8). TEV calculations are based off Thursday stock prices.
For secured bonds, we calculate Net Debt/EBITDA instead of rent-adjusted leverage.
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

58

LTM
EBITDA

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

Next Call Data


Date
Price

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Retail Carla Casella, CFA (1-212) 270-6798

Coupon

Description

J.Crew Group, Inc.


8.125%
Sr Nts
2
Jo-Ann Stores
8.125%
Sr Nts
Limited Brands
8.500%
Sr Nts
7.000%
Sr Nts
6.625%
Sr Nts
5.625%
Sr Nts
6.125%
Sr Nts
5.250%
Sr Nts
6.900%
Sr Nts
6.950%
Sr Nts
7.600%
Sr Nts
Michaels Stores, Inc.
7.750%
Sr Nts
11.375%
Sr Sub Nts
0.000%/13.000% Sr Disc Nts
NBTY, Inc.
9.000%
Sr Nts
Neiman Marcus Group, Inc.
7.125%
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
10.375%
Sr Sub Nts
Office Depot
9.750%
Sr Sec Nts
3
Petco Animal Supplies
9.250%
Guar Nts
1
QVC Inc.
7.125%
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
7.375%
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
7.500%
Sr Sec Nts

LTM
EBITDA

LTM EBITDAR/
(Net Int + 1/3 Rent)

(LTM EBITDA/
Capex)/
(Net Int)

Adj. Net Debt/


LTM
EBITDAR

TEV/
EBITDA

Recom.

Maturity

Hold

1-Mar-19

Caa1/CCC+

400.0

101 3/8

7.70%

705bp

1-Mar-14

104.06

$275.0

3.0x

4.1x

5.9x

na

NR

15-Mar-19

Caa1/CCC+

450.0

99 1/4

8.27%

696bp

15-Mar-14

104.06

na

na

na

na

na

Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Buy
Buy

15-Jun-19
1-May-20
1-Apr-21
15-Feb-22
1-Dec-12
1-Nov-14
15-Jul-17
1-Mar-33
15-Jul-37

Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Ba2/BBBa2/BBBa2/BBBa2/BBBa2/BB-

500.0
400.0
1000.0
1000.0
57.8
213.6
700.0
350.0
300.0

117 1/4
111
107 1/4
99 3/4
102 1/4
106
111
97
101

5.55%
5.30%
5.58%
5.66%
2.47%
2.79%
4.52%
7.23%
7.51%

418bp
373bp
380bp
367bp
232bp
239bp
359bp
458bp
460bp

Make Whole
Make Whole
Make Whole
Make Whole
Make Whole
Make Whole
Make Whole
Make Whole
Make Whole

nc
T+50
T+50
T+50
T+30
T+20
T+30
T+35
T+35

$1,902.7
$1,902.7
$1,902.7
$1,902.7
$1,902.7
$1,902.7
$1,902.7
$1,902.7
$1,902.7

5.7x
5.7x
5.7x
5.7x
5.7x
5.7x
5.7x
5.7x
5.7x

6.0x
6.0x
6.0x
6.0x
6.0x
6.0x
6.0x
6.0x
6.0x

2.7x
2.7x
2.7x
2.7x
2.7x
2.7x
2.7x
2.7x
2.7x

8.7x
8.7x
8.7x
8.7x
8.7x
8.7x
8.7x
8.7x
8.7x

NR
NR
NR

1-Nov-18
1-Nov-16
1-Nov-16

Caa1/CCC
Caa1/CCC
Caa1/CCC

800.0
392.9
306.6

105 1/2
106 1/4
105 1/2

6.34%
6.43%
4.42%

555bp
628bp
435bp

1-Nov-14
1-Nov-12
1-Nov-12

103.88
103.79
104.33

$688.0
$688.0
$688.0

2.8x
2.8x
2.8x

2.3x
2.3x
2.3x

4.2x
4.6x
5.7x

na
na
na

Hold

1-Oct-18

B3/B

650.0

109 3/8

6.52%

594bp

1-Oct-14

104.50

$500.5

2.9x

2.6x

4.7x

na

Hold
Buy

1-Jun-28
15-Oct-15

B2/BBCaa1/B-

125.0
500.0

94
105

7.78%
3.61%

541bp
347bp

nc
15-Oct-12

nc
101.73

$558.2
$558.2

2.3x
2.3x

1.7x
1.7x

4.2x
4.8x

na
na

NR

15-Mar-19

B2/B-

250.0

101 1/4

9.47%

838bp

15-Mar-16

104.88

$313.7

4.2x

5.7x

1.6x

4.0x

NR

1-Dec-18

Caa1/CCC+

500.0

109

6.94%

614bp

1-Dec-13

106.94

na

na

na

na

na

NR
NR
NR

15-Apr-17
15-Oct-20
1-Oct-19

Ba2/BBBBa2/BBBBa2/BBB-

500.0
500.0
1000.0

106
109 1/4
109 1/4

4.44%
5.16%
4.91%

426bp
467bp
453bp

15-Apr-13
15-Apr-15
1-Oct-14

103.56
103.69
103.75

$1,733.0
$1,733.0
$1,733.0

7.6x
7.6x
7.6x

6.4x
6.4x
6.4x

1.1x
1.1x
1.1x

7.3x
7.3x
7.3x

Amount
Outst. ($ mn)

Bid

Recent Quotes
YTW
Spread

1. QVC ratios are not rent-adjusted.


2. Financial data is available and disclosed through Intralinks only. Please contact us with any questions.
3. Financial data is available and disclosed through Intralinks only. Please contact us with any questions.
Note: Ratios are calculated using EBITDAR, and Adjusted Debt (Net Debt + Rent x 8). TEV calculations are based off Thursday stock prices.
For secured bonds, we calculate Net Debt/EBITDA instead of rent-adjusted leverage.
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

59

Next Call Data


Date
Price

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Retail Carla Casella, CFA (1-212) 270-6798

Coupon

Description

RadioShack Corp.
6.750%
Sr Nts
Rent-A-Center, Inc.
6.625%
Sr Nts
Rite Aid Corp.
9.750%
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
8.000%
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
10.375%
Sr Sec Nts (2nd Lien)
7.500%
Sr Sec Nts (2nd Lien)
10.250%
Sr Sec Nts (2nd Lien)
9.250%
Sr Nts
9.375%
Sr Nts
9.500%
Sr Nts
6.875%
Debs
7.700%
Debs
6.875%
Sr Nts
Sally Holdings LLC
6.875%
Sr Nts
Yankee Candle Co., Inc.
8.500%
Sr Nts
9.750%
Sr Sub Nts
10.250%
Sr Nts

Recom.

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

Hold

15-May-19

Ba3/B+

325.0

77 1/2

11.47%

1,012bp

Make Whole

T + 50

$241.3

3.8x

3.6x

4.5x

2.8x

NR

15-Nov-20

Ba3/BB-

300.0

103

6.06%

483bp

15-Nov-15

103.31

$387.1

5.4x

6.9x

4.0x

7.2x

Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold

12-Jun-16
15-Aug-20
15-Jul-16
1-Mar-17
15-Oct-19
15-Mar-20
15-Dec-15
15-Jun-17
15-Aug-13
15-Feb-27
15-Dec-28

B3/B+
B3/B+
Caa2/BCaa2/BCaa2/BCaa3/CCC
Caa3/CCC
Caa3/CCC
Ca/CCC
Ca/CCC
Ca/CCC

410.0
650.0
470.0
500.0
270.0
481.0
405.0
810.0
180.3
295.0
128.0

111 1/4
115
106
101 1/2
115
100 3/4
101 3/4
100 1/4
101 3/4
90 1/2
86 1/4

3.87%
4.25%
6.53%
6.91%
3.93%
9.08%
7.76%
9.40%
5.49%
8.86%
8.42%

367bp
370bp
644bp
645bp
354bp
800bp
756bp
888bp
527bp
656bp
602bp

12-Jun-13
15-Aug-15
15-Jul-12
1-Mar-13
15-Oct-14
15-Mar-16
15-Jun-12
15-Jun-12
nc
nc
nc

104.88
104.00
105.19
102.50
100.13
104.63
102.34
104.75
nc
nc
nc

$934.2
$934.2
$934.2
$934.2
$934.2
$934.2
$934.2
$934.2
$934.2
$934.2
$934.2

2.2x
2.2x
2.2x
2.2x
2.2x
2.2x
2.2x
2.2x
2.2x
2.2x
2.2x

1.4x
1.4x
1.4x
1.4x
1.4x
1.4x
1.4x
1.4x
1.4x
1.4x
1.4x

2.8x
2.8x
4.1x
4.1x
4.1x
7.0x
7.0x
7.0x
7.3x
7.3x
7.3x

8.2x
8.2x
8.2x
8.2x
8.2x
8.2x
8.2x
8.2x
8.2x
8.2x
8.2x

Hold

15-Nov-19

B1/BB+

750.0

106

5.61%

460bp

15-Nov-15

103.44

$525.1

3.4x

3.2x

4.0x

11.5x

Hold
Hold
Hold

15-Feb-15
15-Feb-17
15-Feb-16

B2/CCC+
B3/CCC+
Caa1/CCC+

325.0
188.0
315.0

102 1/2
103 1/4
101

5.37%
8.43%
10.44%

520bp
797bp
980bp

15-Feb-13
15-Feb-13
15-Feb-13

100.00
103.25
102.50

$190.9
$190.9
$190.9

2.8x
2.8x
2.8x

2.4x
2.4x
2.4x

4.3x
5.1x
6.4x

na
na
na

Amount
Outst. ($ mn)

Bid

Recent Quotes
YTW
Spread

Note: Ratios are calculated using EBITDAR, and Adjusted Debt (Net Debt + Rent x 8). TEV calculations are based off Thursday stock prices.
For secured bonds, we calculate Net Debt/EBITDA instead of rent-adjusted leverage.
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

60

Next Call Data


Date
Price

LTM
EBITDA

LTM EBITDAR/
(Net Int + 1/3 Rent)

(LTM EBITDA/
Capex)/
(Net Int)

Adj. Net Debt/


LTM
EBITDAR

TEV/
EBITDA

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Services Yilma Abebe (1-212) 270-3265

Coupon

Description

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

Amount
Out
($ mn)

Bid

1-May-16

B3/B

$300.0

104.38

7.12%

663bp

1-May-13

31-Aug-16
31-Aug-16
1-Dec-17
1-Oct-16
1-Apr-18

NR/NR
NR/NR
Ba3/B+
B3/BCaa1/B-

$225.8
$109.4
$775.0
$210.0
$701.8

92.75
92.69
100.00
106.00
98.75

7.40%
7.42%
8.37%
9.54%
11.79%

641bp
643bp
736bp
897bp
1070bp

1-Jan-16
15-Jul-18
1-Oct-19
15-Jun-20
15-Aug-21

B1/B+
B1/B+
B1/B+
B1/B+
B1/B+

$317.5
$200.0
$400.0
$300.0
$548.2

100.13
103.88
108.38
105.50
108.38

6.58%
4.60%
5.93%
6.37%
6.15%

24-Jul-14
15-Jul-15
15-Feb-20

B1/B+
B3/BB3/B-

$2,410.0
$396.0
$600.0

98.73
104.75
105.75

1-May-18

B3/B

$300.0

NR

15-Aug-16

B2/B+

NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR

22-Sep-18
15-May-14
15-May-16
15-Mar-18
15-Jan-19
15-Mar-20

NR

15-Jul-16

Recom.

BUSINESS & CONSUMER SERVICES


Dematic (DEMAT)
8.750%
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien) NR
CEVA Group (TNTLOG)
L + 500
Term Loan B
NR
L + 500
Term Loan B
NR
8.375%
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien) NR
11.625%
Sr Sec Nts
NR
11.500% Sr Sec Nts (2nd Lien) NR
Iron Mountain (IRM)
6.625%
Sr Sub Nts
Buy
8.750%
Sr Sub Nts
Buy
7.750%
Sr Sub Nts
NR
8.000%
Sr Sub Nts
Buy
8.375%
Sr Sub Nts
Buy
ServiceMaster (SVMSTR)
L + 300
Term Loan B
NR
10.750%
Sr Toggle Nts
Buy
8.000%
Sr Nts
NR
Syncreon (SYNCIM)
9.500%
Sr Nts
NR
RENTALS
Ashtead Group (AHTLN)
9.000%
Sr Sec Nts (2nd Lien)
1
Avis (CAR)
L + 500
Term Loan B
7.625%
Sr Nts
7.750%
Sr Nts
9.625%
Sr Nts
8.250%
Sr Nts
9.750%
Sr Nts
H&E Equipment Services (HEES)
8.375%
Sr Nts

1. Pro forma for acquisition.


Note: Loan yields are to maturity; spreads are over libor.
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

61

EBITDA
LTM

EBITDA/
Int. Exp.
LTM

Net Debt/
EBITDA
LTM

Total
Debt/
TEV

TEV/
EBITDA
LTM

Equity
Market
Cap

104.38

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

na
na
1-Dec-13
1-Oct-12
1-Apr-14

na
na
106.28
108.72
105.75

350
350
350
350
350

1.4x
1.4x
1.4x
1.4x
1.4x

5.5x
5.5x
5.5x
5.5x
5.5x

6.9x
6.9x
6.9x
6.9x
6.9x

6.3x
6.3x
6.3x
6.3x
6.3x

na
na
na
na
na

na
na
na
na
na

na
na
na
na
na

596bp
451bp
495bp
618bp
580bp

15-Jul-12
1-Oct-15
15-Jun-13
15-Aug-14

102.92
103.88
104.00
104.19

$932
$932
$932
$932
$932

4.7x
4.7x
4.7x
4.7x
4.7x

0.8x
0.8x
0.8x
0.8x
0.8x

3.6x
3.6x
3.6x
3.6x
3.6x

3.4x
3.4x
3.4x
3.4x
3.4x

43%
43%
43%
43%
43%

8.3x
8.3x
8.3x
8.3x
8.3x

$5,041.9
$5,041.9
$5,041.9
$5,041.9
$5,041.9

3.55%
2.24%
6.79%

292bp
215bp
572bp

na
15-Jul-12
15-Feb-15

na
102.69
106.00

$588
$588
$588

2.1x
2.1x
2.1x

4.3x
4.3x
4.3x

6.7x
6.7x
6.7x

6.4x
6.4x
6.4x

na
na
na

na
na
na

na
na
na

98.00

9.95%

884bp

1-May-14

104.75

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

$550.0

104.25

4.93%

483bp

15-Aug-12

103.00

$464

4.7x

1.2x

2.9x

2.8x

41%

7.0x

$1,953.6

Ba1/BB
B2/B
B2/B
B2/B
B2/B
B2/B

$420.0
$200.0
$375.0
$450.0
$600.0
$250.0

100.79
100.50
102.63
107.50
103.00
108.00

6.10%
1.37%
6.36%
7.38%
7.57%
7.90%

469bp
132bp
618bp
672bp
659bp
694bp

na
15-May-12
15-May-12
15-Mar-14
15-Oct-15
15-Sep-15

na
100.00
102.58
104.81
104.13
104.88

$781
$781
$781
$781
$781
$781

2.5x
2.5x
2.5x
2.5x
2.5x
2.5x

1.1x
1.1x
1.1x
1.1x
1.1x
1.1x

4.1x
4.1x
4.1x
4.1x
4.1x
4.1x

3.4x
3.4x
3.4x
3.4x
3.4x
3.4x

79%
79%
79%
79%
79%
79%

5.5x
5.5x
5.5x
5.5x
5.5x
5.5x

$1,370.5
$1,370.5
$1,370.5
$1,370.5
$1,370.5
$1,370.5

B3/BB-

$250.0

102.50

7.14%

680bp

15-Jul-12

102.79

$91

3.1x

0.0x

2.8x

2.7x

29%

9.7x

$639.2

Recent Quotes
YTW
Spread

Next Call Data


Date
Price

Sr. Sec. Debt/ Total Debt/


EBITDA
EBITDA
LTM
LTM

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Services Yilma Abebe (1-212) 270-3265

Coupon

Description

Hertz (HTZ)
L + 300
Term Loan B
7.500%
Sr Nts
6.750%
Sr Nts
7.375%
Sr Nts
7.625%
Sr Nts
Maxim Crane (MXMC)
12.250% Sr Sec Nts (2nd Lien)
NES Rentals Holdings (NESRH)
12.250% Sr Sec Nts (2nd Lien)
Neff Rentals (NEFF)
9.625%
Sec Nts
RSC Rental Equipment (RRR)
10.000%
Sr Sec Nts
9.500%
Sr Nts
10.250%
Sr Nts
8.250%
Sr Nts
2
United Rentals (URI)
9.250%
Sr Nts
10.875%
Sr Nts
8.375%
Sr Sub Nts
5.750%
Sr Sec Nts
7.375%
Sr Nts
7.625%
Sr Nts
WASTE
Casella Waste Systems (CWST)
11.000% Sr Sec Nts (2nd Lien)
7.750%
Sr Sub Nts
Covanta Holding (CVA)
7.250%
Sr Nts
6.375%
Sr Nts
1
EnergySolutions (ES)
L + 500
Term Loan B
10.750%
Guar Nts

Recom.

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

NR
NR
NR
NR
NR

11-Mar-18
15-Oct-18
15-Apr-19
15-Jan-21
1-Jun-12

Ba1/BB
B2/B
B2/B
B2/B
B3/B

$1,400.0
$700.0
$1,000.0
$500.0
$176.1

99.51
105.88
102.75
105.50
100.63

3.84%
5.99%
6.08%
6.36%
2.53%

252bp
522bp
525bp
508bp
247bp

na
15-Oct-14
15-Apr-15
15-Jan-16
nc

na
103.75
103.63
103.69
nc

$1,319
$1,319
$1,319
$1,319
$1,319

3.4x
3.4x
3.4x
3.4x
3.4x

1.2x
1.2x
1.2x
1.2x
1.2x

3.7x
3.7x
3.7x
3.7x
3.7x

3.5x
3.5x
3.5x
3.5x
3.5x

46%
46%
46%
46%
46%

8.1x
8.1x
8.1x
8.1x
8.1x

$6,138.4
$6,138.4
$6,138.4
$6,138.4
$6,138.4

NR

15-Apr-15

Caa2/B

$250.0

95.25

14.25%

1377bp

15-Apr-13

105.00

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

NR

15-Apr-15

Caa2/CCC+

$150.0

94.00

14.80%

1432bp

15-Apr-13

106.13

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

NR

15-May-16

Caa1/B-

$200.0

99.00

9.92%

923bp

15-May-13

107.22

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold

15-Jul-17
1-Dec-14
15-Nov-19
1-Feb-21

B1/BBCaa1/BCaa1/BCaa1/B-

$400.0
$503.0
$200.0
$650.0

115.75
102.63
111.00
105.50

1.22%
5.16%
7.33%
7.21%

102bp
501bp
692bp
592bp

15-Jul-13
1-Dec-12
15-Nov-14
1-Feb-16

105.00
100.00
105.13
104.13

$560
$560
$560
$560

3.0x
3.0x
3.0x
3.0x

1.7x
1.7x
1.7x
1.7x

4.1x
4.1x
4.1x
4.1x

4.1x
4.1x
4.1x
4.1x

50%
50%
50%
50%

8.2x
8.2x
8.2x
8.2x

$2,296.0
$2,296.0
$2,296.0
$2,296.0

Hold
Hold
Hold
NR
NR
NR

15-Dec-19
B3/B
$500.0
15-Jun-16
B3/B
$500.0
15-Sep-20 Caa1/CCC+ $750.0
15-Jul-18
Ba3/BB$750.0
15-May-20
B3/B
$750.0
15-Apr-22
B3/B
$1,325.0

109.00
112.63
101.50
101.50
100.75
101.00

7.08%
4.24%
8.07%
5.42%
7.22%
7.46%

666bp
404bp
687bp
449bp
610bp
590bp

15-Dec-14
15-Jun-13
15-Sep-15
15-Jul-15
15-May-16
15-Apr-17

104.63
105.44
104.19
102.88
103.69
103.81

$1,494
$1,494
$1,494
$1,494
$1,494
$1,494

3.0x
3.0x
3.0x
3.0x
3.0x
3.0x

1.3x
1.3x
1.3x
1.3x
1.3x
1.3x

4.5x
4.5x
4.5x
4.5x
4.5x
4.5x

4.5x
4.5x
4.5x
4.5x
4.5x
4.5x

73%
73%
73%
73%
73%
73%

6.3x
6.3x
6.3x
6.3x
6.3x
6.3x

$2,550.4
$2,550.4
$2,550.4
$2,550.4
$2,550.4
$2,550.4

NR
NR

15-Jul-14
15-Feb-19

B3/BBCaa2/CCC+

$180.0
$200.0

107.50
99.00

2.64%
7.94%

256bp
665bp

15-Jul-12
15-Feb-15

105.50
103.88

$100
$100

2.0x
2.0x

2.5x
2.5x

4.7x
4.7x

4.7x
4.7x

72%
72%

6.5x
6.5x

$180.6
$180.6

Buy
NR

1-Dec-20
1-Oct-22

Ba3/B+
Ba3/B+

$400.0
$400.0

108.21
101.21

5.63%
6.18%

502bp
463bp

1-Dec-15
1-Apr-17

103.63
103.19

$492
$492

5.0x
5.0x

2.6x
2.6x

4.4x
4.4x

4.2x
4.2x

51%
51%

8.5x
8.5x

$2,154.3
$2,154.3

NR
NR

15-Aug-16
15-Aug-18

Ba3/BB+
Caa1/BB-

$560.0
$300.0

100.00
103.25

6.25%
9.80%

527bp
906bp

na
15-Aug-14

na
105.38

$154
$154

2.1x
2.1x

1.2x
1.2x

3.2x
3.2x

2.9x
2.9x

59%
59%

5.4x
5.4x

$383.9
$383.9

1. Leverage metrics net of restricted cash.


2. Pro forma for acquisition.
Note: Loan yields are to maturity; spreads are over libor.
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

62

Amount
Out
($ mn)

Bid

Recent Quotes
YTW
Spread

Next Call Data


Date
Price

EBITDA
LTM

EBITDA/
Int. Exp.
LTM

Sr. Sec. Debt/ Total Debt/


EBITDA
EBITDA
LTM
LTM

Net Debt/
EBITDA
LTM

Total
Debt/
TEV

TEV/
EBITDA
LTM

Equity
Market
Cap

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Shipping Jenna Giannelli (1-212) 270-9455
Issue Data
Issuer

Desc.

Recom.

ACL I Corp.
10.63%
Notes
American Petroleum
10.25%
Notes
BLT Finance BV
7.50%
Notes
BW Group Ltd
6.63%
Notes
CMA CGM
8.50%
Notes
DP World
6.85%
Notes
6.25%
Notes
General Maritime
12.00%
Notes
Hapag-Lloyd
9.75%
Notes
Horizon Lines
11.00%
Notes
Marquette Transportation Company
10.88%
Notes
Navios Maritime Acquisition
Overweight
8.63%
Notes
Buy
Navios Maritime Holdings
Neutral
8.88%
Notes
Hold
8.13%
Notes
Buy
Navios South American Logistics
9.25%
Notes
Overseas Shipholding Group
Overweight
8.75%
Notes
Hold
8.13%
Notes
Buy
7.50%
Notes
Hold
Ship Finance
8.50%
Notes
Stena
7.00%
Notes
Teekay Corporation
8.50%
Notes
Shipping Average (ex-Distressed)
JPMorgan High Yield Index
Split BBB Index
BB Index
B Index
CCC Index
3 - Month LIBOR
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

63

Market Data
Amout
($mn)

YTW

STW

Total Return
Next Call
Date
Price

Maturity

Rating

2/15/2016

Caa1/B-

264

98

10.8%

11.1%

824 2/15/2013

5/1/2015

B1/B+

258

105.1

9.8%

7.4%

5/15/2014

NA/D

400

26.3

nm

nm

6/28/2017

Ba1/BB

500

97.8

6.8%

6.9%

396

59.8

14.2%

21.8%

4/15/2017 Caa2/CCC

Price($)

Current
Yield

EBITDA
($ mn)

EBITDA
Margin

Credit Fundamentals (LTM 9/30/11)


Interest EBITDA-Capex Total
Net
Coverage
Interest
Leverage Leverage

TEV/
EBITDA

MTD

YTD

105.0

-0.2%

30.3%

$92

11.1%

2.9x

1.0x

4.8x

4.7x

Private

717 5/14/2012

105.1

0.0%

4.9%

$62

60.3%

0.8x

-0.3x

10.4x

9.9x

Private

5/15/2012

103.8

-2.5%

-27.2%

NA

NC

NC

-0.8%

13.0% Private Financials

Private

104.3

-3.9%

39.3% Private Financials

Private

NC
NC

NC
NC

-0.3%
0.1%

8.2%
5.6%

$1,132

11/15/2013

106.0

14.9%

54.3%

NA

33.4%

579

2,051 4/15/2014
457
405

Private

7/2/2037
7/2/2017

Baa3/BB
Baa3/BB

1,750
1,500

95.6
105.1

7.2%
5.9%

7.2%
5.0%

11/15/2017

WR/NR

300

2.7

nm

nm

10/15/2017

B3/B

250

96.6

10.1%

10.3%

911 10/15/2014

104.9

-0.7%

10/15/2016

B2/NR

225

101.3

10.9%

9.5%

900 10/15/2012

101.5

-0.6%

1/15/2017

B3/B-

250

108.1

10.1%

8.3%

765 1/15/2013

108.2

-0.2%

6.7% Private Financials

11/1/2017

B2/B

505

92.5

9.3%

10.4%

949 11/1/2013

104.3

1.1%

27.9%

$69

64.0%

1.7x

-3.9x

12.3x

11.7x

13.6x

11/1/2017
2/15/2019

Ba3/BBB3/B+

400
350

101.8
86.5

8.7%
9.4%

8.0%
10.8%

697 11/1/2013
927 2/15/2015

104.4
104.1

0.3%
1.8%

10.1%
19.0%

$265

66.6%

2.2x

2.4x

5.6x

4.8x

6.3x

4/15/2019

B3/B+

191

88.5

10.5%

11.5%

999 4/15/2014

106.9

2.5%

14.7%

Consolidated

12/1/2013
3/30/2018
2/15/2024

Caa1/BCaa1/BCaa1/B-

64
300
146

94.0
73.0
63.5

9.3%
11.1%
11.8%

12.2%
14.9%
13.6%

NC
NC
NC

1.3%
-1.3%
-0.6%

3.6%
23.9%
27.1%

$23

2.3%

0.3x

-3.9x

92.0x

85.3x

99.2x

12/15/2013

B3/B+

296

100.0

8.5%

8.3%

812 5/14/2012

100.0

0.3%

8.9%

$196

1.9x

-1.2x

10.3x

9.9x

15.5x

12/1/2016

Ba3/BB+

129

101.5

6.9%

2.5%

243 5/14/2012

101.2

4.9%

9.4%

6,210

68.4%
SEK
23.6%

2.9x

-2.0x

8.3x

8.0x

Private

1/15/2020

B2/BB-

450
435

104.0
$95.2

8.2%
9.2%

7.8%
9.2%
7.5%
5.2%
5.6%
7.6%
12.4%
0.5%

NC
104.1

-0.4%
0.4%
-0.4%
0.2%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.9%

9.1%
15.0%
4.8%
4.5%
2.9%
4.8%
10.2%

$638
$827

33.2%
33.9%

4.7x
2.2x

-0.3x
-0.5x

8.4x
17.7x

7.2x
16.2x

11.2x
29.4x

1,127
1,350
1,153

638
803
659
402
456
679
1,161

NC
NC
NC

NC

35.8%

3.0x

1.4x

6.9x

3.3x

Private

$395

6.5%

3.7x

0.8x

4.4x

2.9x

Private

$20

1.6%

0.4x

0.0x

31.0x

30.3x

30.8x
Private

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Technology: Software and Services Thomas J. Egan (1-212) 270-2149

Coupon

Description

Recom.

Aspect Software
10.625%
Sr Sec Nts (2nd Lien)
NR
Brightstar Corp.
9.500%
Guar Nts
NR
Brocade Communication Systems
6.625%
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
NR
6.875%
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
NR
Cardtronics Inc.
8.250%
Sr Sub Nts
NR
Ceridian
11.250%
Sr Nts
NR
12.250%
Sr Toggle Nts
NR
CoreLogic Inc.
7.250%
Sr Nts
NR
Fidelity National Information Services
7.875%
Guar Nts
NR
7.625%
Guar Nts
NR
First Data Corporation
10.550%
Sr Toggle Nts
NR
11.250%
Sr Sub Nts
NR
9.875%
Sr Nts
NR
9.875%
Sr Nts
NR
8.875%
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
NR
12.625%
Sr Nts
NR
8.250%
Sr Sec Nts
NR
8.750% Sr Sec Toggle Nts (2nd Lien) NR
7.375%
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
NR
GXS Worldwide
9.750%
Sr Sec Nts
NR
Intcomex Inc.
13.250%
Sr Sec Nts (2nd Lien)
NR
iPayment Inc.
10.250%
Sr Nts
NR
Kemet
10.500%
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
NR
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

64

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

Amount
Outst.

Bid

Recent Quotes
YTW

STW

15-May-17

Caa1/B-

300.0

108 1/4

8.21%

737bp

15-May-14

105.31

1-Dec-16

B1/BB-

350.0

103 7/8

8.24%

751bp

1-Dec-14

15-Jan-18
15-Jan-20

Ba2/BBB
Ba2/BBB

300.0
300.0

104 3/4
110

4.53%
4.19%

437bp
366bp

1-Sep-18

B3/BB

200.0

110 1/2

5.17%

15-Nov-15
15-Nov-15

Caa2/CCC
Caa2/CCC

825.0
505.9

91 1/2
91 1/2

1-Jun-21

Ba3/B+

400.0

15-Jul-20
15-Jul-17

Ba2/BB+
Ba2/BB+

24-Sep-15
31-Mar-16
24-Sep-15
24-Sep-15
15-Aug-20
15-Jan-21
15-Jan-21
15-Jan-22
15-Jun-19

Next Call Data


Date
Price

LTM
EBITDA

EBITDA
Margin

Total Debt/
EBITDA

Net Debt/
EBITDA

EBITDA
Interest

104.75

$178.0

3.5%

2.5x

2.0x

4.8x

15-Jan-13
15-Jan-15

103.31
103.44

$492.0
$492.0

22.7%
22.7%

1.5x
1.5x

0.5x
0.5x

5.5x
5.5x

473bp

1-Sep-14

104.13

$141.7

24.2%

2.6x

2.6x

6.8x

14.34%
15.40%

1,362bp
1,468bp

15-Nov-12
15-Nov-12

102.81
103.06

103 1/4

6.67%

511bp

1-Jun-16

103.63

$310.0

23.2%

2.9x

2.5x

5.4x

500.0
600.0

111
109 1/2

5.15%
4.27%

474bp
404bp

15-Jul-14
15-Jul-13

105.91
105.72

$1,691.0
$1,691.0

29.4%
29.4%

2.8x
2.8x

2.6x
2.6x

6.5x
6.5x

Caa1/BCaa2/CCC+
Caa1/BCaa1/BB1/B+
Caa1/BCaa1/BCaa1/BB1/B+

747.5
2500.0
197.8
560.6
510.0
3000.0
2000.0
1000.0
1595.0

101 1/4
90 3/4
99 3/4
100 1/4
108 1/2
99
98
96 3/4
102

9.62%
14.38%
9.90%
9.68%
7.15%
12.81%
8.58%
9.26%
6.91%

935bp
1,357bp
921bp
942bp
626bp
1,086bp
663bp
707bp
581bp

30-Sep-12
30-Sep-12
30-Sep-12
30-Sep-12
15-Aug-15
15-Jan-16
15-Jan-16
15-Jan-16
15-Jun-15

102.64
102.81
102.47
102.47
104.44
112.63
104.13
104.38
103.69

$2,276.0
$2,276.0
$2,276.0
$2,276.0
$2,276.0
$2,276.0
$2,276.0
$2,276.0
$2,276.0

21.2%
21.2%
21.2%
21.2%
21.2%
21.2%
21.2%
21.2%
21.2%

8.9x
10.0x
8.9x
8.9x
5.6x
8.9x
6.9x
6.9x
5.6x

8.7x
9.8x
8.7x
8.7x
5.4x
8.7x
6.7x
6.7x
5.4x

1.6x
1.6x
1.6x
1.6x
1.6x
1.6x
1.6x
1.6x
1.6x

15-Jun-15

B2/B

785.0

97 1/8

10.83%

1,021bp

15-Jun-12

104.88

$123.6

25.9%

6.2x

6.0x

1.5x

15-Dec-14

B3/B-

115.0

99 1/4

13.57%

1,306bp

15-Dec-12

106.63

$27.6

2.4%

4.1x

3.0x

1.3x

15-May-18

B3/CCC+

400.0

92 1/4

12.08%

1,076bp

15-May-15

105.13

$127.0

17.9%

6.1x

6.1x

2.3x

1-May-18

B2/B+

230.0

107

8.43%

759bp

1-May-14

105.25

$184.3

17.0%

1.2x

0.6x

6.1x

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Technology: Software and Services Thomas J. Egan (1-212) 270-2149

Coupon

Description

Recom.

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

NR

1-Jul-16

Ba2/BB+

362.0

104 1/2

5.82%

575bp

1-Jul-12

NR
NR
NR
NR
NR

15-May-15
15-Jan-14
15-Aug-15
15-Nov-18
15-Nov-20

Caa1/B
B3/BB
Caa1/BCaa1/B
Caa1/B

500.0
250.0
1000.0
900.0
700.0

105 1/3
102 3/4
103 3/4
106 1/2
106 3/4

7.55%
3.26%
6.07%
5.74%
6.36%

736bp
295bp
593bp
479bp
492bp

NR

15-Jan-19

Caa1/B-

475.0

110 1/8

6.58%

NR

15-Jun-18

B3/B-

645.0

117 1/4

NR
NR

15-Jan-16
15-Oct-14

B2/BBBa1/BB+

110.6
186.2

106 1/4
111 1/4

NR

27-Oct-17

Ba3 / B

600.0

99 2/3

Lender Processing Services


8.125%
Sr Nts
Sungard Data Systems
10.625%
Sr Nts
4.875%
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
10.250%
Sr Sub Nts
7.375%
Sr Nts
7.625%
Sr Nts
Syniverse Technologies
9.125%
Sr Nts
Trans Union
11.375%
Guar Nts
Unisys
12.500%
Sr Nts
12.750%
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
Web.com
Loan
L+550
Term Loan
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

65

Amount
Outst.

Bid

Recent Quotes
YTW

STW

Next Call Data


Date
Price

LTM
EBITDA

EBITDA
Margin

Total Debt/
EBITDA

Net Debt/
EBITDA

EBITDA
Interest

104.06

$516.0

24.7%

2.2x

2.1x

7.7x

1-Apr-13

102.66

15-Oct-12
15-Nov-13
15-Nov-15

101.71
105.53
103.81

$1,373.0
$1,373.0
$1,373.0
$1,373.0
$1,373.0

30.5%
30.5%
30.5%
30.5%
30.5%

4.9x
3.3x
5.7x
4.9x
4.9x

4.2x
2.7x
5.1x
4.2x
4.2x

2.6x
2.6x
2.6x
2.6x
2.6x

582bp

15-Jan-15

104.56

5.38%

499bp

15-Jun-14

105.69

$353.0

34.5%

6.3x

6.1x

2.8x

7.93%
2.98%

776bp
284bp

15-Jan-13
15-Oct-12

103.13
106.38

$539.0
$539.0

14.0%
14.0%

0.7x
0.4x

nm
nm

6.5x
6.5x

4.1x

4.0x

3.0x

$147.0

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Technology: Semiconductors Thomas J. Egan (1-212) 270-2149

Coupon

Description

Advanced Micro Devices


8.125%
Sr Nts
7.750%
Sr Nts
Amkor Technologies
7.375%
Sr Nts
6.625%
Sr Nts
Freescale Semiconductor
8.875%
Sr Nts
10.125%
Sr Sub Nts
10.125%
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
9.250%
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
8.050%
Sr Nts
10.750%
Sr Nts
Magnachip Semiconductor
10.500%
Sr Nts
NXP BV
8.625%
Sr Bds
10.000%
Sr Sec Nts
9.750%
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
Seagate
6.875%
Sr Nts
7.750%
Sr Nts
7.000%
Sr Nts
6.800%
Sr Nts
10.000%
Sr Sec Nts (2nd Lien)
Sensata Technologies
6.500%
Sr Sec Nts
Spansion LLC
7.875%
Sr Nts
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

66

Recom.

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

NR
NR

15-Dec-17
1-Aug-20

Ba3/B+
Ba3/B+

500.0
500.0

110
109 3/4

4.25%
5.56%

396bp
491bp

15-Dec-13
1-Aug-15

NR
NR

1-May-18
1-Jun-21

Ba3/BB
Ba3/BB

345.0
400.0

106 7/8
102 3/4

5.46%
6.22%

463bp
419bp

NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR

15-Dec-14
15-Dec-16
15-Mar-18
15-Apr-18
1-Feb-20
1-Aug-20

Caa1/CCC+
Caa2/CCC+
B1/B
B1/B
Caa1/CCC+
Caa1/CCC+

294.1
264.3
663.1
1380.0
738.4
472.4

102 5/8
105 3/4
111 1/2
109 3/4
101
112 3/4

4.90%
5.12%
6.22%
6.22%
7.84%
7.76%

NR

15-Apr-18

B2/B+

203.7

111 1/4

NR
NR
NR

15-Oct-15
15-Jul-13
1-Aug-18

Caa1/B
NR/BB
B3/B+

235.0
89.9
1000.0

NR
NR
NR
NR
NR

1-May-20
15-Dec-18
1-Nov-21
1-Oct-16
1-May-14

Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Baa3/BBB

NR

15-May-19

NR

15-Nov-17

Amount
Outst.

Bid

Recent Quotes
YTW

STW

Next Call Data


Date
Price

LTM
EBITDA

EBITDA
Margin

Total Debt/
EBITDA

Net Debt/
EBITDA

104.06
103.88

$902.0
$902.0

13.7%
13.7%

2.2x
2.2x

1.3x
1.3x

1-May-14
1-Jun-15

103.69
104.97

$531.0
$531.0

19.1%
19.1%

2.1x
2.1x

1.2x
1.2x

475bp
496bp
588bp
587bp
652bp
710bp

15-Dec-12
15-Dec-12
15-Mar-14
15-Apr-14
1-Jun-15
1-Aug-15

100.00
102.53
105.06
104.63
104.03
105.38

$1,093.0
$1,093.0
$1,093.0
$1,093.0
$1,093.0
$1,093.0

23.9%
23.9%
23.9%
23.9%
23.9%
23.9%

5.8x
6.0x
4.4x
4.4x
5.8x
5.8x

5.1x
5.3x
3.7x
3.7x
5.1x
5.1x

6.90%

655bp

15-Apr-14

105.25

$155.0

19.9%

1.7x

0.5x

103 1/2
108 1/4
113 1/4

7.06%
3.29%
5.56%

684bp
306bp
514bp

15-Oct-12

102.88
104.88

25.5%
25.5%
25.5%

3.6x
2.8x
0.2x

2.9x
2.1x

1-Aug-14

$1,069.0
$1,069.0
$1,069.0

600.0
750.0
600.0
600.0
385.6

106 1/4
109 1/4
107 3/8
110 1/2
113

5.64%
5.36%
5.70%
4.20%
2.22%

457bp
485bp
464bp
327bp
202bp

1-May-15
15-Dec-14
1-May-16

103.44
103.88
103.50
105.00

17.5%
17.5%
17.5%
17.5%
17.5%

1.4x
1.4x
1.4x
1.4x
0.2x

0.5x
0.5x
0.5x
0.5x

1-May-13

$2,019.0
$2,019.0
$2,019.0
$2,019.0
$2,019.0

B3/B

700.0

104 1/2

5.48%

440bp

15-May-15

103.25

$489.0

27.8%

3.8x

3.7x

B3/BB-

200.0

96 1/2

8.67%

748bp

15-Nov-13

103.94

$256.0

21.7%

1.8x

0.8x

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Technology: Telecom Equipment Thomas J. Egan (1-212) 270-2149
Coupon

Description

Recom.

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

NR
NR
NR
NR

7-Apr-14
15-Jan-16
15-Mar-29
15-Jan-28

B2/B
B2/B
B2/B
B2/B

462.0
500.0
1360.0
300.0

102 1/2
104
79
78 1/4

5.03%
7.26%
8.87%
9.13%

483bp
677bp
624bp
656bp

NR
NR
NR

1-Nov-15
1-Nov-15
1-Apr-19

Caa2/CCC+
Caa2/CCC+
B1/B

700.0
833.8
1009.0

98 1/2
98 1/2
100 7/8

10.26%
10.64%
6.79%

954bp
992bp
574bp

1-Nov-12
1-Nov-12
1-Apr-15

NR
NR
NR
NR
NR

12-Oct-15
15-Dec-18
12-Oct-17
12-Oct-15
1-Apr-19

Caa1/CCC+
B1/B
Caa1/CCC+
Caa1/CCC+
B3/CCC+

49.3
500.0
721.5
79.7
1175.0

105 1/2
109 1/2
109
105 3/4
106 3/4

5.38%
5.54%
6.65%
5.61%
6.88%

524bp
503bp
651bp
547bp
583bp

15-Oct-12
15-Dec-14
15-Oct-12
15-Oct-12
1-Apr-15

Alcatel-Lucent
6.375%
Sr Nts
8.500%
Sr Nts
6.450%
Debs
6.500%
Debs
Avaya
9.750%
Sr Nts
10.125%
Sr Toggle Nts
7.000%
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
CDW LLC
11.000%
Sr Nts
8.000%
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
12.535%
Sr Sub Nts
11.500%
Sr Toggle Nts
8.500%
Sr Nts

Amount
Outst.

Bid

Recent Quotes
YTW

STW

Next Call Data


Date
Price

LTM
EBITDA

EBITDA
Margin

Total Debt/
EBITDA

Net Debt/
EBITDA

EBITDA
Interest

1,205
1,205
1,205
1,205

7.7%
7.7%
7.7%
7.7%

3.8x
3.8x
3.8x
3.8x

0.9x
0.9x
0.9x
0.9x

4.0x
4.0x
4.0x
4.0x

102.44
102.53
103.50

$1,028
$1,028
$1,028

18.5%
18.5%
18.5%

6.0x
6.0x
4.5x

5.6x
5.6x
4.2x

2.2x
2.2x
2.2x

102.75
104.00
106.27
102.88
104.25

$717
$717
$717
$717
$717

7.5%
7.5%
7.5%
7.5%
7.5%

4.7x
2.8x
5.7x
4.7x
4.7x

4.5x
2.7x
5.5x
4.5x
4.5x

2.2x
2.2x
2.2x
2.2x
2.2x

Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

Technology: Electronic Manufacturing Services (EMS) Thomas J. Egan (1-212) 270-2149

Coupon

Description

Recom.

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

NR
NR
NR
NR

1-Oct-14
1-Oct-14
1-Oct-14
1-Oct-14

Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+

609.0
125.0
150.0
200.0

99
99
99
99

NR
NR
NR

15-Mar-18
15-Dec-20
15-Jul-16

Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+
Ba1/BB+

400.0
400.0
312.0

116
104 1/2
113 1/2

5.09%
4.98%
4.25%

382bp
305bp
338bp

NR
NR

15-May-19
1-Mar-16

B1/B
B3/B-

500.0
250.0

102 1/4
102 5/8

6.47%
6.54%

540bp
636bp

15-May-14
1-Mar-13

NR

15-Jan-15

B2/BB-

220.0

107 1/2

5.78%

570bp

15-Jul-12

Flextronics International
Loans
L+225
TL
L+225
TL
L+225
TL
L+225
TL
Jabil Circuit
8.250%
Sr Nts
5.625%
Sr Nts
7.750%
Sr Nts
Sanmina
7.000%
Sr Nts
8.125%
Sr Sub Nts
Viasystems
12.000%
Sr Sec Nts
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

67

Amount
Outst.

Bid

Recent Quotes
YTW

STW

Next Call Data


Date
Price

LTM
EBITDA

EBITDA
Margin

Total Debt/
EBITDA

Net Debt/
EBITDA

EBITDA
Interest

$1,129.0
$1,129.0
$1,129.0
$1,129.0

3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%

1.9x
1.9x
1.9x
1.9x

0.6x
0.6x
0.6x
0.6x

28.9x
28.9x
28.9x
28.9x

$1,055.9
$1,055.9
$1,055.9

6.2%
6.2%
6.2%

1.3x
1.3x
1.3x

0.7x
0.7x
0.7x

10.0x
10.0x
10.0x

105.25
101.35

$349.0
$349.0

5.4%
5.4%

2.2x
3.1x

0.9x
1.8x

3.2x
3.2x

106.00

$136.0

13.2%

1.7x

1.2x

6.2x

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Transportation: Airlines Unsecured Mark Streeter (212) 834-5086

Coupon

Description

Delta Airlines
9.500%
Senior Secured (1st)
12.250%
Senior Secured (2nd)
9.750%
Sr Secured (EETC: 09-1B)
United Airlines
12.000% Sr Secured (EETC: 09-1B)
6.750%
Senior Secured (1st)
9.875%
Senior Secured (1st)
12.000%
Senior Secured (2nd)
Air Canada
9.250%
Senior Secured (1st)
12.000%
Senior Secured (2nd)

Amount
Outstg.

Issue
Spread

Recent Quotes
Price
Yield
Spread

Buy
Buy
Buy

15-Sep-14
15-Mar-15
17-Dec-16

Ba2/BBB2/B+
Ba2/BBB-

28-Sep-09
28-Sep-09
24-Nov-09

$750.0
$600.0
$119.9

$601.1
$397.1
$66.4

744
1056
775

$106.00
$108.00
$104.13

5.0%
7.7%
8.7%

482
739
784

13.2%
13.2%
13.2%

15.1%
15.1%
15.1%

3.9x
3.9x
3.9x

Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy

15-Jan-16
15-Sep-15
1-Aug-13
1-Nov-13

Ba2/BB+
Ba2/BBBa3/BBB3/B-

24-Nov-09
20-Aug-10
15-Jan-10
15-Jan-10

$112.6
$800.0
$500.0
$200.0

$87.0
$800.0
$450.0
$200.0

955
539
831
1181

$109.00
$100.13
$105.00
$106.00

9.1%
6.7%
3.4%
4.2%

847
632
324
403

10.5%
10.5%
10.5%
10.5%

21.1%
21.1%
21.1%
21.1%

4.1x
4.1x
4.1x
4.1x

Hold
Hold

1-Aug-15
1-Feb-16

B2/B+
Caa2/B-

27-Jul-10
27-Jul-10

$600.0
$200.0

$600.0
$200.0

772
1122

$95.25
$86.50

11.0%
16.9%

1,046
1,631

6.0%
6.0%

19.2%
19.2%

5.4x
5.4x

Transportation: Rail Mark Streeter (212) 834-5086


Description

Recommendation

Maturity

Ratings

Issue
Date

Amount
Outstg.

Price

Recent Quotes
Yield

T-Spread

Buy

1-Feb-18

Ba2/BB+

20-Sep-10

$296

$111.0

3.8%

350

Kansas City Southern


8.000%
Senior Unsecured
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

68

Total Adj. Debt to


LTM EBITDAR

Ratings

Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

Coupon

Most Recent Quarter


Unrestricted Cash
% of LTM Revenues

Maturity

Recommendation

Amount
Issued

EBITDAR
Margin

Issue
Date

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Utilities Dave Katz (1-212) 270-4593

Coupon
AES Corporation
7.750%
7.750%
9.750%
8.000%
8.000%
7.375%
Calpine Corp.
7.250%
8.000%
7.875%
7.500%
7.875%
2
Edison Mission
7.500%
8.560%
7.750%
7.000%
7.200%
7.625%
Genon Energy
7.625%
7.875%
9.500%
9.875%
8.500%
9.125%
NRG Energy, Inc.
7.375%
7.625%
8.500%
7.625%
8.250%
7.875%

Description

Recom.

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

Sr Nts
Sr Nts
Sr Nts
Sr Nts
Sr Nts
Sr Nts

NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR

1-Mar-14
15-Oct-15
15-Apr-16
15-Oct-17
1-Jun-20
1-Jul-21

Ba3/BBBa3/BBBa3/BBBa3/BBBa3/BBBa3/BB-

$500
$500
$535
$1500
$625
$1000

$108.00
$111.50
$117.00
$112.25
$113.50
$110.00

3.31%
4.18%
5.00%
5.40%
5.88%
5.95%

303bp
360bp
433bp
441bp
429bp
411bp

1-Mar-14
15-Oct-15
15-Apr-16
15-Oct-17
1-Jun-20
1-Jul-21

nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc

nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc

$3,645
$3,645
$3,645
$3,645
$3,645
$3,645

2.3x
2.3x
2.3x
2.3x
2.3x
2.3x

1.7x
1.7x
1.7x
1.7x
1.7x
1.7x

20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%

Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)


Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
Sr Sec Nts

NR
NR
NR
NR
NR

15-Oct-17
15-Aug-19
31-Jul-20
15-Feb-21
15-Jan-23

B1/BBB1/NR
B1/BBB1/BBB1/BB-

$1200
$400
$1100
$2000
$1200

$105.38
$108.00
$107.25
$104.75
$106.00

5.54%
6.39%
6.44%
6.59%
6.86%

496bp
584bp
551bp
537bp
536bp

15-Oct-15
15-Aug-15
31-Jul-17
1-Nov-18
15-Jan-20

15-Oct-13
15-Aug-15
31-Jul-15
1-Nov-15
15-Jan-17

$103.63
$104.00
$103.94
$103.75
$103.94

$1,726
$1,726
$1,726
$1,726
$1,726

2.3x
2.3x
2.3x
2.3x
2.3x

4.5x
4.5x
4.5x
4.5x
4.5x

45%
45%
45%
45%
45%

Sr Nts
P-T Certs
Sr Nts
Sr Nts
Sr Nts
Sr Nts

Hold
NR
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold

15-Jun-13
2-Jan-16
15-Jun-16
15-May-17
15-May-19
15-May-27

Caa3/CCC+
Ba3/B+
Caa3/CCC+
Caa3/CCC+
Caa3/CCC+
Caa3/CCC+

$500
$404
$500
$1200
$800
$700

$75.00
$96.25
$64.00
$61.00
$59.50
$57.00

35.47%
9.78%
21.16%
19.40%
17.35%
14.83%

3527bp
916bp
2046bp
1852bp
1600bp
1252bp

15-Jun-13
2-Jan-16
15-Jun-16
15-May-17
15-May-19
15-May-27

nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc

nc
nc
nc
nc
nc
nc

$510
$510
$510
$510
$510
$510

1.6x
1.6x
1.6x
1.6x
1.6x
1.6x

8.2x
8.2x
8.2x
8.2x
8.2x
8.2x

117%
117%
117%
117%
117%
117%

Sr Nts
Sr Nts
Sr Nts
Sr Nts
Sr Nts
Sr Nts

NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR

15-Jun-14
15-Jun-17
15-Oct-18
15-Oct-20
1-Oct-21
1-May-31

B3/B
B3/B
B3/B
B3/B
B3/BBB3/BB-

$575
$725
$675
$550
$450
$400

$101.00
$86.50
$90.75
$89.25
$87.00
$85.00

7.11%
11.40%
11.56%
11.92%
10.72%
11.02%

679bp
1049bp
1035bp
1024bp
882bp
848bp

15-Jun-14
15-Jun-17
15-Oct-18
15-Oct-20
1-Oct-21
1-May-31

nc
nc
nc
15-Oct-15
nc
nc

nc
nc
nc
$104.94
nc
nc

$622
$622
$622
$622
$622
$622

1.6x
1.6x
1.6x
1.6x
1.6x
1.6x

6.6x
6.6x
6.6x
6.6x
6.6x
6.6x

104%
104%
104%
104%
104%
104%

Sr Nts
Sr Nts
Sr Nts
Sr Nts
Guar Nts
Sr Nts

Hold
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy

15-Jan-17
15-Jan-18
15-Jun-19
15-May-19
1-Sep-20
15-May-21

B1/BBB1/BBB1/BBB1/BBB1/BBB1/BB-

$1090
$1200
$700
$800
$1100
$1200

$103.63
$98.50
$100.00
$95.75
$96.00
$93.00

5.60%
7.95%
8.50%
8.43%
8.94%
9.02%

544bp
691bp
759bp
708bp
729bp
721bp

15-Jan-13
15-Jan-18
15-Jun-17
15-May-19
1-Sep-20
15-May-21

15-Jan-13
nc
15-Jun-14
15-May-14
1-Sep-15
15-May-16

$102.46
nc
$104.25
$103.81
$104.13
$103.94

$1,820
$1,820
$1,820
$1,820
$1,820
$1,820

2.7x
2.7x
2.7x
2.7x
2.7x
2.7x

4.4x
4.4x
4.4x
4.4x
4.4x
4.4x

67%
67%
67%
67%
67%
67%

Current

Offer

Recent Quotes
YTW
Spread

Note: EBITDA is Adjusted EBITDA. Interest Expense is based on LTM values.


1. Enterprise value calculated on total debt value, not just through recourse debt.
2. For Edision Mission, an assumed 7.0x EV/EBITDA multiple was used. Midwest Generation pass-through certificates are recourse to Edison Mission.
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

69

YTD
Date

Next Call Data


Date
Price

EBITDA
LTM

EBITDA
Interest
LTM

Resource
Debt/
EBITDA LTM

Debt
1
EV

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Utilities Dave Katz (1-212) 270-4593

Coupon

Description

Recom.

Texas Competitive Electric Holdings Company LLC 1


10.250%
Sr Nts
NR
10.250%
Sr Nts
NR
11.250%
Sr Toggle Nts
NR
11.500%
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
NR
15.000%
Sr Sec Nts (2nd Lien)
NR
Energy Future Holdings Corp.2
5.550%
Sr Nts
NR
7.460%
Sec Nts (1st Lien)
NR
12.000%
Sr Toggle Nts
NR
10.875%
Sr Nts
NR
7.480%
Sec Nts (1st Lien)
NR
9.750%
Sr Sec Nts
NR
10.000%
Sr Sec Nts
NR
6.500%
Sr Nts
NR
6.550%
Sr Nts
NR

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

Current

Offer

1-Nov-15
1-Nov-15
1-Nov-16
1-Oct-20
1-Apr-21

Caa3/D
Caa3/D
Caa3/D
B2/CCC
Caa3/CC

$1833
$1292
$1567
$1750
$1235

$22.50
$22.00
$19.00
$63.00
$39.50

75.38%
76.67%
55.03%
20.92%
40.03%

7479bp
7608bp
5425bp
1925bp
3824bp

1-Nov-15
1-Nov-15
1-Nov-16
1-Oct-20
1-Apr-21

nc
1-Nov-12
1-Nov-12
1-Apr-16
1-Oct-15

15-Nov-14
1-Jan-15
1-Nov-17
1-Nov-17
1-Jan-17
15-Oct-19
15-Jan-20
15-Nov-24
15-Nov-34

Ca/D
Caa3/CC
Ca/D
Ca/D
Caa3/NR
Caa3/BCaa3/BCa/CC
Ca/CC

$326
$14
$438
$181
$55
$115
$1061
$740
$744

$72.50
$100.32
$84.75
$85.00
$90.01
$102.00
$108.00
$51.75
$49.50

19.63%
7.32%
16.23%
14.95%
10.20%
9.28%
8.22%
15.22%
13.94%

1922bp
689bp
1523bp
1395bp
938bp
829bp
740bp
1305bp
1119bp

15-Nov-14
1-Jan-15
1-Nov-17
1-Nov-17
1-Jan-17
15-Oct-17
15-Jan-17
15-Nov-24
15-Nov-34

nc
nc
1-Nov-12
1-Nov-12
nc
15-Oct-14
15-Jan-15
nc
nc

Recent Quotes
YTW
Spread

YTD
Date

EBITDA
LTM

EBITDA
Interest
LTM

Resource
Debt/
EBITDA LTM

Debt
1
EV

nc
$102.56
$105.25
$105.75
$107.50

$3,584
$3,584
$3,584
$3,584
$3,584

0.9x
0.9x
0.9x
0.9x
0.9x

8.3x
8.3x
8.3x
8.3x
8.3x

119%
119%
119%
119%
119%

nc
nc
$105.63
$105.44
nc
$104.88
$105.00
nc
nc

$5,036
$5,036
$5,036
$5,036
$5,036
$5,036
$5,036
$5,036
$5,036

1.2x
1.2x
1.2x
1.2x
1.2x
1.2x
1.2x
1.2x
1.2x

7.4x
7.4x
7.4x
7.4x
7.4x
7.4x
7.4x
7.4x
7.4x

105%
105%
105%
105%
105%
105%
105%
105%
105%

Next Call Data


Date
Price

1. Enterprise value calculated on total debt value, not just through recourse debt.
2. For Texas Competitive Electric Holdings Company LLC enterprise value estimated using a 7.0x EBITDA multiple. Capitalization and liquidity data is pro forma for the $650mn repayment of borrowings under TCEH revolver.
3. For Energy Future Holdings enterprise value estimated using a 7.0x EBITDA multiple. Capitalization and liquidity data is pro forma for the $650mn repayment of the borrowings under TCEH revolver and the issuance of EFIH's 11.750% notes due 2022.
Note: EBITDA is Adjusted EBITDA. Interest Expense is based on LTM values.
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

70

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Wireless Telecommunications: Rural, Regional, and National Wireless Thomas J. Egan (1-212) 270-2149

Coupon

Description

Recom.

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

NR
NR
NR
NR

1-Dec-15
1-Dec-15
1-Dec-16
1-Dec-17

B3/CCC
B3/CCC
B3/CCC
Caa3/CC

2,027.5
920.0
300.0
500.0

93 1/4
93 1/4
106
84

14.44%
14.44%
12.98%
16.46%

1,384bp
1,384bp
1,218bp
1,544bp

1-Dec-12
1-Dec-12

NR
NR
NR

15-Jan-15
15-Jan-15
15-Apr-18

Caa1/NR
Caa1/NR
Caa1/NR

1,000.0
415.1
775.0

102
102
109 1/2

6.07%
6.32%
7.75%

592bp
616bp
746bp

NR
NR
NR

15-May-16
15-Jul-15
15-Oct-20

Ba2/B+
B3/CCC+
B3/CCC+

1,100.0
300.0
1,600.0

105 1/2
104 3/4
97

5.77%
7.65%
8.25%

NR
NR

1-Sep-18
15-Nov-20

B2/B
B2/B

1,000.0
1,000.0

104 3/4
98

NR
NR
NR

15-Aug-16
15-Dec-19
1-Apr-21

B2/B+
B2/B+
B2/B+

800.0
500.0
1,450.0

NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR

31-Oct-13
15-Mar-14
1-Aug-15
1-Dec-16
1-Mar-17
15-Aug-17
15-Nov-18
1-May-19
1-Mar-20
15-Nov-21
15-Apr-22
15-Nov-28
15-Mar-32

B1/B+
B1/B+
B1/B+
B3/B+
B3/B+
B3/B+
Ba3/BBB3/B+
Ba3/BBB3/B+
B3/B+
B3/B+
B3/B+

NR

15-Aug-16

NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR

Clearwire Corporation
12.000% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
12.000% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
14.750% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
12.000% Sr Sec Nts (2nd Lien)
Digicel Group
8.875%
Sr Nts
9.125%
Sr Toggle Nts
10.500%
Sr Nts
Leap Wireless International, Inc.
7.750%
Sr Sec Nts
10.000%
Sr Nts
7.750%
Sr Nts
MetroPCS
7.875%
Sr Nts
6.625%
Sr Nts
NII Capital
10.000%
Sr Nts
8.875%
Sr Nts
7.625%
Sr Nts
Sprint Nextel Corporation
6.875%
Sr Nts
5.950%
Sr Nts
7.375%
Sr Nts
6.000%
Sr Nts
9.125%
Sr Nts
8.375%
Sr Nts
9.000%
Sr Nts
6.900%
Sr Guar Nts
7.000%
Nts
11.500%
Sr Nts
9.250%
Sr Nts
6.875%
Sr Nts
8.750%
Sr Nts
Trilogy International Partners
10.250% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
Vimpelcom
6.493%
Nts
7.748%
Nts
7.504%
Bds
Wind Acquisition
11.750%
Sr Sub Sec Nts
11.750%
Sr Sub Sec Nts
Sr Toggle Nts
12.250%
12.250%
Sr Toggle Nts
7.250% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
7.250% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
7.375% Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

71

Amount
Outst.

Bid

Recent Quotes
YTW
Spread

Next Call Data


Date
Price

LTM Interest
Coverage

LTM
Leverage

Total
Subscribers

106.00
106.00

nm
nm
nm
nm

nm
nm
nm
nm

10,414,000
10,414,000
10,414,001
10,414,000

15-Jan-13
15-Jan-13
15-Apr-14

100.00
100.00
105.25

2.7x
2.7x
2.7x

4.4x
4.4x
4.4x

12,700,000
12,700,000
12,700,000

527bp
731bp
657bp

15-May-12
15-Jul-12
15-Oct-15

105.81
105.00
103.88

2.2x
2.2x
2.2x

2.0x
5.3x
5.3x

5,934,000
5,934,000
5,934,000

6.60%
6.94%

585bp
524bp

1-Sep-14
15-Nov-15

103.94
103.31

5.2x
5.2x

3.6x
3.6x

9,346,659
9,346,659

113
104 3/4
96 1/2

3.60%
7.82%
8.18%

338bp
679bp
640bp

15-Aug-13
15-Dec-14
1-Apr-16

105.00
104.44
103.81

4.9x
4.9x
4.9x

3.1x
3.1x
3.1x

10,712,000
10,712,000
10,712,000

1,472.9
1,169.9
2,137.1
2,000.0
1,000.0
1,300.0
3,000.0
1,729.4
1000.0
1,000.0
200.0
2,475.0
2,000.0

99 7/8
99 7/8
95 1/2
88 3/4
99 1/4
95 1/4
108 1/2
85 1/2
100 1/2
106 1/2
97
74 3/4
84 1/2

6.96%
6.02%
8.98%
9.03%
9.31%
9.53%
7.35%
9.80%
6.91%
10.41%
9.73%
10.03%
10.64%

672bp
573bp
844bp
823bp
847bp
858bp
611bp
846bp
538bp
848bp
771bp
763bp
804bp

5.0x
5.0x
5.0x
5.0x
5.0x
5.0x
5.0x
5.0x
5.0x
5.0x
5.0x
5.0x
5.0x

4.4x
4.4x
4.4x
4.4x
4.4x
4.4x
1.1x
4.4x
1.1x
4.4x
4.4x
4.4x
4.4x

55,021,000
55,021,000
55,021,000
55,021,000
55,021,000
55,021,000
55,021,000
55,021,000
55,021,000
55,021,000
55,021,000
55,021,000
55,021,000

Caa1/CCC+

370.0

87

14.37%

1,363bp

2-Feb-16
2-Feb-21
1-Mar-22

Ba3/BB
Ba3/BB
Ba3/BB

500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0

102 1/4
97 5/9
95 3/8

5.82%
8.14%
8.19%

518bp
639bp
620bp

4.8x
4.8x
4.8x

2.6x
2.6x
2.6x

205,000,000
205,000,000
205,000,000

15-Jul-17
15-Jul-17
15-Jul-17
15-Jul-17
15-Feb-18
15-Feb-18
15-Feb-18

B3/BBB3/BBCaa1/B
Caa1/B
Ba3/BB
Ba3/BB
Ba3/BB

2,000.0
1,250.0
754.2
392.2
1,300.0
400.0
1,750.0

94
89
85
85
92 3/8
91 1/4
88 1/2

13.36%
14.82%
16.63%
16.63%
8.96%
9.22%
10.03%

1,244bp
1,408bp
1,570bp
1,588bp
789bp
816bp
915bp

2.9x
2.9x
2.9x
2.9x
2.9x
2.9x
2.9x

4.4x
4.4x
4.9x
4.9x
3.0x
3.0x
3.0x

21,014,000
21,014,000
21,014,000
21,014,000
21,014,000
21,014,000
21,014,000

15-Aug-13

15-Jul-13
15-Jul-13
15-Jul-13
15-Jul-13
15-Nov-13
15-Nov-13
15-Nov-13

105.13

105.88
105.88
106.13
106.13
105.44
105.44
105.53

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Wireless Telecommunications: Tower Thomas J. Egan (1-212) 270-2149

Coupon

Description

Crown Castle
7.750%
Sr Sec Nts
9.000%
Sr Nts
7.125%
Sr Nts
SBA Telecommunications
8.000%
Sr Nts
8.250%
Sr Nts
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

72

Recom.

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

NR
NR
NR

1-May-17
15-Jan-15
1-Nov-19

Baa3/BB
B1/BB1/B-

1000.4
866.9
500.0

108 5/8
110 1/4
108 3/8

2.99%
2.56%
4.91%

280bp
240bp
451bp

1-May-13
15-Jan-13
1-Nov-14

NR
NR

15-Aug-16
15-Aug-19

B1/B+
B1/B+

375.0
375.0

107 3/8
110 1/8

3.53%
5.26%

343bp
490bp

15-Aug-12
15-Aug-14

Amount
Outst.

Bid

Recent Quotes
YTW

Spread

Next Call Data


Date
Price

LTM Interest
Coverage

LTM
Leverage

Total
Towers

103.88
105.63
103.56

3.2x
3.2x
3.2x

3.6x
5.3x
5.3x

23,783
23,783
23,783

106.00
104.13

2.8x
2.8x

5.6x
5.6x

10,524
10,524

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Wireline Telecommunications Thomas J. Egan (1-212) 270-2149

Coupon

Description

Cincinnati Bell Telephone


6.300%
Sr Guar Nts
7.250%
Sr Sec Nts
7.000%
Sr Nts
8.375%
Sr Nts
8.750%
Sr Sub Nts
8.250%
Sr Nts
Frontier Communications
6.250%
Sr Nts
8.250%
Sr Nts
6.625%
Sr Nts
7.875%
Sr Nts
8.250%
Sr Nts
8.125%
Sr Nts
7.125%
Sr Nts
8.500%
Sr Nts
8.750%
Sr Nts
7.000%
Debs
7.875%
Sr Nts
9.000%
Sr Nts
7.450%
Debs
7.050%
Debs
Equinix
8.125%
Sr Nts
7.000%
Sr Nts
Fairpoint Communications
13.125%
Sr Nts
Level 3 Communications
8.625%
Sr Nts
8.750%
Sr Nts
11.875%
Sr Nts
10.000%
Sr Nts
9.375%
Sr Nts
8.125%
Sr Nts
Time Warner Telecom Holdings
Sr Nts
8.000%
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

73

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

Amount
Outst.

NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR

1-Dec-28
15-Jun-23
15-Feb-15
15-Oct-20
15-Mar-18
15-Oct-17

Ba1/BBBa1/BBB1/B
B1/B
B3/CCC+
B1/B

134.5
40.0
250.0
775.0
625.0
500.0

79 7/8
90
100 1/2
98 1/2
91 3/4
102 1/4

8.60%
8.66%
6.36%
8.63%
10.66%
7.51%

619bp
658bp
619bp
695bp
958bp
693bp

NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR

15-Jan-13
1-May-14
15-Mar-15
15-Apr-15
15-Apr-17
1-Oct-18
15-Mar-19
15-Apr-20
15-Apr-22
1-Nov-25
15-Jan-27
15-Aug-31
1-Jul-35
1-Oct-46

Ba2/BB
Ba2/BB
Ba2/BB
Ba2/BB
Ba2/BB
Ba2/BB
Ba2/BB
Ba2/BB
Ba2/BB
Ba2/BB
Ba2/BB
Ba2/BB
Ba2/BB
Ba2/BB

580.7
600.0
300.0
500.0
1100.0
600.0
434.0
1100.0
500.0
138.0
345.9
945.3
125.0
193.5

102
108 1/8
104 1/8
107 1/2
107 1/4
104 5/8
99 1/4
104
104 1/2
88
89 1/2
95 3/4
81
78 1/4

3.53%
4.06%
5.08%
5.14%
6.53%
7.22%
7.26%
7.82%
8.09%
8.51%
9.19%
9.48%
9.49%
9.13%

337bp
376bp
461bp
466bp
566bp
601bp
595bp
626bp
607bp
628bp
689bp
692bp
670bp
569bp

NR
NR

1-Mar-18
15-Jul-21

Ba2/BBBa2/BB-

750.0
750.0

110
109

4.59%
5.35%

432bp
462bp

1-Mar-14
15-Jul-16

104.06
103.50

NR

1-Apr-18

NR/NR

550.0

250.00%

bp

1-Apr-13

106.56

NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR

15-Jul-20
15-Feb-17
1-Feb-19
1-Feb-18
1-Apr-19
1-Jul-19

B3/CCC
B3/CCC
Caa2/CCC
B3/CCC
B3/CCC
B3/CCC

900.0
700.0
605.2
640.0
500.0
1200.0

104
103 3/4
113
109
108
102

7.74%
7.25%
8.48%
7.20%
7.42%
7.65%

670bp
680bp
784bp
675bp
655bp
673bp

15-Jan-16
15-Feb-13
1-Feb-15
1-Feb-14
1-Apr-15
1-Jul-15

NR

1-Mar-18

B1/B

430.0

109 1/2

4.71%

443bp

1-Mar-14

Recom.

Bid

Recent Quotes
YTW

Next Call
Spread

Date

15-Feb-13
15-Oct-15
15-Mar-14
15-Oct-13

Price

LTM
Revenue

LTM
EBITDA

LTM
Leverage

100.00
104.19
104.38
104.13

$1,462
$1,462
$1,462
$1,462
$1,462
$1,462

$545.0
$545.0
$545.0
$545.0
$545.0
$545.0

0.7x
0.7x
3.5x
3.5x
4.6x
3.5x

$5,243
$5,243
$5,243
$5,243
$5,243
$5,243
$5,243
$5,243
$5,243
$5,243
$5,243
$5,243
$5,243
$5,243

$2,485.0
$2,485.0
$2,485.0
$2,485.0
$2,485.0
$2,485.0
$2,485.0
$2,485.0
$2,485.0
$2,485.0
$2,485.0
$2,485.0
$2,485.0
$2,485.0

3.3x
3.3x
3.3x
3.3x
3.3x
3.3x
3.3x
3.3x
3.3x
3.3x
3.3x
3.3x
3.3x
3.3x

$1,607
$1,607

$738.4
$738.4

2.9x
2.9x

104.31
102.92
105.94
105.00
104.69
104.06

$6,318
$6,318
$6,318
$6,318
$6,318
$6,318

$1,216.0
$1,216.0
$1,216.0
$1,216.0
$1,216.0
$1,216.0

5.7x
5.7x
7.1x
5.7x
5.7x
5.7x

104.00

$1,367

$497.7

2.0x

April 12, 2012

North America High Yield Research


High-Yield Relative Value Weekly
For the week ended April 11, 2012

Relative value analysis


Wireline Telecommunications Thomas J. Egan (1-212) 270-2149

Coupon

Description

West Corp.
11.000%
Sr Sub Nts
8.625%
Sr Nts
7.875%
Sr Nts
Windstream
7.500%
Sr Nts
8.125%
Sr Nts
7.000%
Sr Nts
7.875%
Sr Nts
8.125%
Sr Nts
6.750%
Sr Nts
7.750%
Sr Nts
7.500%
Sr Nts
7.750%
Sr Nts
PAETEC Holding Corp.
8.875%
Sr Sec Nts (1st Lien)
9.875%
Sr Nts
Source: J.P. Morgan and company reports.

74

Maturity

Ratings
Moodys
S&P

Amount
Outst.

NR
NR
NR

15-Oct-16
1-Oct-18
15-Jan-19

Caa1/BB3/B
B3/B

450.0
500.0
650.0

106
109 1/2
105 1/2

5.95%
6.06%
6.47%

NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR

1-Jun-22
1-Aug-13
15-Mar-19
1-Nov-17
1-Sep-18
1-Apr-28
15-Oct-20
1-Apr-23
1-Oct-21

Ba3/B+
Ba3/B+
Ba3/B+
Ba3/B+
Ba3/B+
Baa3/BB+
Ba3/B+
Ba3/B+
Ba3/B+

500.0
800.0
500.0
1100.0
400.0
100.0
700.0
600.0
450.0

103 1/2
106 3/8
101 3/4
109 3/4
106 3/4
103 6/7
105 3/4
102 1/2
105 3/4

NR
NR

30-Jun-17
1-Dec-18

Ba1/BBNR/NR

650.0
450.0

108 1/4
113

Recom.

Bid

Recent Quotes
YTW

Date

Next Call
Price

LTM
Revenue

LTM
EBITDA

LTM
Leverage

581bp
568bp
568bp

15-Oct-12
1-Oct-14
15-Nov-14

103.67
104.31
103.94

$2,491
$2,491
$2,491

$681.4
$681.4
$681.4

5.2x
4.5x
4.5x

6.93%
3.05%
6.33%
5.79%
6.33%
6.36%
6.65%
7.04%
6.76%

534bp
284bp
586bp
480bp
558bp
400bp
543bp
572bp
532bp

1-Jun-17

103.75

15-Mar-13

102.33

1-Sep-14

104.06

15-Oct-15
1-Apr-16
1-Oct-16

103.88
103.75
103.88

$6,244
$6,244
$6,244
$6,244
$6,244
$6,244
$6,244
$6,244
$6,244

$2,434.0
$2,434.0
$2,434.0
$2,434.0
$2,434.0
$2,434.0
$2,434.0
$2,434.0
$2,434.0

3.6x
3.6x
3.6x
3.6x
3.6x
1.3x
3.6x
3.6x
3.6x

5.32%
6.19%

512bp
578bp

30-Jun-13
1-Dec-14

104.44
104.94

$6,244
$6,244

$2,434.0
$2,434.0

1.3x
3.6x

Spread

J.P. Morgan North American Credit Research


383 Madison Avenue, 3rd Floor, New York, NY 10179

JOYCE CHANG
Head of Global Credit and Emerging Markets Research
(212) 834-4203
H I G H G R A D E S T R AT E G Y A N D C R E D I T D E R I VAT I V E R E S E A R C H
ERIC BEINSTEIN
eric.beinstein@jpmorgan.com . . . . . . . (212) 834-4211, dominique.d.toublan@jpmorgan.com . (212) 834-2370
miroslav.j.skovajsa@jpmorgan.com . (212) 834-5154
anna.x.cherepanova@jpmorgan.com . (212) 834-3220

GLOBAL HIGH YIELD

AND

L E V E R A G E D L O A N S T R AT E G Y

PETER D. ACCIAVATTI
peter.acciavatti@jpmorgan.com . . . (212) 270-9633, tony.linares@jpmorgan.com . . . . . . (212) 270-3285
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . nelson.r.jantzen@jpmorgan.com . . . (212) 270-1169
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . alisa.meyers@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 834-9151

ARUN N. KUMAR

DAVID COMMON

Head of High Grade Research

Head of High Yield Research

NORTH AMERICAN HIGH GRADE RESEARCH

NORTH AMERICAN HIGH YIELD RESEARCH

AUTOMOTIVE
eric.j.selle@jpmorgan.com . . . . . . . . . . (212) 270-9624, jenna.l.giannelli@jpmorgan.com . . . (212) 270-9455

AUTOMOTIVE, SHIPPING
eric.j.selle@jpmorgan.com . . . . . . . . . . (212) 270-9624, jenna.l.giannelli@jpmorgan.com . . . (212) 270-9455

BASIC INDUSTRIES
Chemicals and Metals & Mining
robin.levine@jpmorgan.com . . . . . . (212) 270-1536, svetlana.x.goldenberg@jpmorgan.com . (212) 270-9453

BASIC INDUSTRIES
Chemicals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
tarek.x.hamid@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 834-5468, jonathan.j.mann@jpmorgan.com . . . (212) 834-7239

Home Builders, Gaming & Lodging


susan.berliner@jpmorgan.com . . . . .(212) 270-3085, richard.j.degaetani@jpmorgan.com . (212) 834-9524

Homebuilding, Gaming & Lodging


susan.berliner@jpmorgan.com . . . . .(212) 270-3085, richard.j.degaetani@jpmorgan.com . (212) 834-9524

Paper/Forest Products, Packaging


tarek.x.hamid@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 834-5468, jonathan.j.mann@jpmorgan.com . . . (212) 834-7239

Metals & Mining . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .


dave.adam.katz@jpmorgan.com . . . (212) 270-4593, bayina.bashtaeva@jpmorgan.com . (212) 270-1372
Paper/Forest Products, Packaging
tarek.x.hamid@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 834-5468, jonathan.j.mann@jpmorgan.com . . . (212) 834-7239

BANKS, FINANCE AND SECURITIES COMPANIES


kabir.x.caprihan@jpmorgan.com . . . (212) 834-5613, matthew.hughart@jpmorgan.com . . (212) 270-4584

FINANCE AND SECURITIES COMPANIES


dave.adam.katz@jpmorgan.com . . . (212) 270-4593, bayina.bashtaeva@jpmorgan.com . (212) 270-1372

CONSUMER PRODUCTS
virginia.chambless@jpmorgan.com . (212) 834-5481, crutcher.reiss@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 270-1682

CONSUMER PRODUCTS, FOOD AND RESTAURANTS


carla.casella@jpmorgan.com . . . . . . (212) 270-6798, paul.a.simenauer@jpmorgan.com . . (212) 270-6861

ELECTRIC UTILITIES AND POWER GENERATION


susan.voorhees@jpmorgan.com . . . (212) 834-5200, larry.liou@jpmorgan.com . . . . . . . . . (212) 834-9455

ELECTRIC UTILITIES AND POWER GENERATION


dave.adam.katz@jpmorgan.com . . . (212) 270-4593, bayina.bashtaeva@jpmorgan.com . (212) 270-1372

ENERGY, PIPELINES, MLPS


robin.levine@jpmorgan.com . . . . . . (212) 270-1536, svetlana.x.goldenberg@jpmorgan.com . (212) 270-9453

ENERGY
gregg.w.brody@jpmorgan.com . . . . (212) 834-5997, jason.homler@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 834-9405

HEALTHCARE
arun.n.kumar@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 834-5423, brett.g.gibson@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 270-7484

HEALTHCARE
david.common@jpmorgan.com . . . . (212) 270-5260, jared.a.feeney@jpmorgan.com . . . . .(212) 270-0699

INSURANCE
arun.n.kumar@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 834-5423, brett.g.gibson@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 270-7484
MANUFACTURING, SERVICES
Aerospace/Defense
virginia.chambless@jpmorgan.com . (212) 834-5481, crutcher.reiss@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 270-1682
Manufacturing and Industrials
virginia.chambless@jpmorgan.com . (212) 834-5481, crutcher.reiss@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 270-1682
REITS
mark.streeter@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 834-5086,, nicholas.j.northington@jpmorgan.com .(212) 834-5237

MANUFACTURING, SERVICES
Aerospace/Defense, Industrials, Services
yilma.abebe@jpmorgan.com . . . . . . (212) 270-3265, ryan.p.dean@jpmorgan.com . . . . . . (212) 270-9566
GAMING, LODGING, LEISURE
Gaming, Lodging
susan.berliner@jpmorgan.com . . . . .(212) 270-3085, richard.j.degaetani@jpmorgan.com . (212) 834-9524
Leisure
michael.pace@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 270-6530, arjun.c.chandar@jpmorgan.com . . . (212) 270-6797

RETAIL
virginia.chambless@jpmorgan.com . (212) 834-5481, crutcher.reiss@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 270-1682

RETAIL
carla.casella@jpmorgan.com . . . . . . (212) 270-6798, paul.a.simenauer@jpmorgan.com . . (212) 270-6861

TECHNOLOGY/TELECOMMUNICATION, CABLE AND MEDIA


Technology
brian.m.turner@jpmorgan.com . . . . .(212) 834-4035, monish.m.desai@jpmorgan.com . . . (212) 834-4079

TECHNOLOGY/TELECOMMUNICATION, CABLE AND MEDIA


Technology/Telecommunication Services
thomas.j.egan@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 270-2149, lina.p.kabaria@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 834-5669

Telecommunication Services
brian.m.turner@jpmorgan.com . . . . .(212) 834-4035, monish.m.desai@jpmorgan.com . . . (212) 834-4079

Cable/Media
michael.pace@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 270-6530, arjun.c.chandar@jpmorgan.com . . . (212) 270-6797

Media & Entertainment


michael.pace@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 270-6530, arjun.c.chandar@jpmorgan.com . . . (212) 270-6797

Broadcasting/Publishing
avi.a.steiner@jpmorgan.com . . . . . . (212) 270-5512, kenneth.r.norden@jpmorgan.com . . (212) 270-1564

TRANSPORTATION
Airlines/EETCs/Aircraft/Rails/Freight
mark.streeter@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 834-5086, nicholas.j.northington@jpmorgan.com .(212) 834-5237

TRANSPORTATION
Airlines/EETCs/Aircraft/Rails/Freight
mark.streeter@jpmorgan.com . . . . . (212) 834-5086, nicholas.j.northington@jpmorgan.com .(212) 834-5237

North American Credit Research

Analyst Certification:
The research analyst(s) denoted by an AC on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple research analysts are primarily
responsible for this report, the research analyst denoted by an AC on the cover or within the document individually certifies, with respect
to each security or issuer that the research analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect
his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of any of the research analysts compensation
was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this report.
Conflict of Interest:
This research contains the views, opinions and recommendations of J.P. Morgan credit research analysts. Research analysts
routinely consult with J.P. Morgan trading desk personnel in formulating views, opinions and recommendations in preparing
research. Trading desks may trade, or have traded, as principal on the basis of the research analyst(s) views and report(s).
Therefore, this research may not be independent from the proprietary interests of J.P. Morgan trading desks which may conflict
with your interests. In addition, research analysts receive compensation based, in part, on the quality and accuracy of their analysis,
client feedback, trading desk and firm revenues and competitive factors. As a general matter, J.P. Morgan and/or its affiliates
normally make a market and trade as principal in fixed income securities discussed in research reports.

Important Disclosures
Explanation of Credit Research Ratings:
Ratings System: J.P. Morgan uses the following sector/issuer portfolio weightings: Overweight (over the next three months, the
recommended risk position is expected to outperform the relevant index, sector, or benchmark), Neutral (over the next three months, the
recommended risk position is expected to perform in line with the relevant index, sector, or benchmark), and Underweight (over the next
three months, the recommended risk position is expected to underperform the relevant index, sector, or benchmark). J.P. Morgans
Emerging Market research uses a rating of Marketweight, which is equivalent to a Neutral rating.
Valuation & Methodology: In J.P. Morgans credit research, we assign a rating to each company (Overweight, Underweight or Neutral)
based on our credit view of the company and the relative value of its financial instruments, taking into account the ratings assigned to the
company by credit rating agencies and the market prices for the companys securities. Our credit view of a company is based upon our
opinion as to whether the company will be able service its debt obligations when they become due and payable. We assess this by
analyzing, among other things, the companys credit position using standard credit ratios such as cash flow to debt and fixed charge
coverage (including and excluding capital investment). We also analyze the companys ability to generate cash flow by reviewing standard
operational measures for comparable companies in the sector, such as revenue and earnings growth rates, margins, and the composition of
the companys balance sheet relative to the operational leverage in its business.

Other Disclosures
J.P. Morgan is the global brand name for J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS) and its non-US affiliates worldwide. J.P. Morgan Cazenove is a brand
name for equity research produced by J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd.; J.P. Morgan Equities Limited; JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Dubai Branch; and
J.P. Morgan Bank International LLC.
Options related research: If the information contained herein regards options related research, such information is available only to persons who
have received the proper option risk disclosure documents. For a copy of the Option Clearing Corporations Characteristics and Risks of
Standardized Options, please contact your J.P. Morgan Representative or visit the OCCs website at
http://www.optionsclearing.com/publications/risks/riskstoc.pdf.
Legal Entities Disclosures
U.S.: JPMS is a member of NYSE, FINRA,SIPC and the NFA. J.P. Morgan Futures Inc. is a member of the NFA. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. is a
member of FDIC and is authorized and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority. U.K.: J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd. (JPMSL) is a
member of the London Stock Exchange and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Registered in England & Wales No.
2711006. Registered Office 125 London Wall, London EC2Y 5AJ. South Africa: J.P. Morgan Equities Limited is a member of the Johannesburg
Securities Exchange and is regulated by the FSB. Hong Kong: J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited (CE number AAJ321) is regulated by
the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong. Korea: J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Ltd, Seoul
Branch, is regulated by the Korea Financial Supervisory Service. Australia: J.P. Morgan Australia Limited (ABN 52 002 888 011/AFS Licence No:
238188) is regulated by ASIC and J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited (ABN 61 003 245 234/AFS Licence No: 238066) is a Market Participant
with the ASX and regulated by ASIC. Taiwan: J.P.Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited is a participant of the Taiwan Stock Exchange (companytype) and regulated by the Taiwan Securities and Futures Bureau. India: J.P. Morgan India Private Limited, having its registered office at J.P.
Morgan Tower, Off. C.S.T. Road, Kalina, Santacruz East, Mumbai - 400098, is a member of the National Stock Exchange of India Limited (SEBI
Registration Number - INB 230675231/INF 230675231/INE 230675231) and Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (SEBI Registration Number INB
010675237/INF 010675237) and is regulated by Securities and Exchange Board of India. Thailand: JPMorgan Securities (Thailand) Limited is a
member of the Stock Exchange of Thailand and is regulated by the Ministry of Finance and the Securities and Exchange Commission. Indonesia:
PT J.P. Morgan Securities Indonesia is a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange and is regulated by the BAPEPAM LK. Philippines: J.P. Morgan
Securities Philippines Inc. is a member of the Philippine Stock Exchange and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Brazil:
Banco J.P. Morgan S.A. is regulated by the Comissao de Valores Mobiliarios (CVM) and by the Central Bank of Brazil. Mexico: J.P. Morgan Casa
de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P. Morgan Grupo Financiero is a member of the Mexican Stock Exchange and authorized to act as a broker dealer by the
National Banking and Securities Exchange Commission. Singapore: This material is issued and distributed in Singapore by J.P. Morgan Securities
Singapore Private Limited (JPMSS) [MICA (P) 032/01/2012 and Co. Reg. No.: 199405335R] which is a member of the Singapore Exchange
Securities Trading Limited and is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and/or JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore branch
(JPMCB Singapore) which is regulated by the MAS. Malaysia: This material is issued and distributed in Malaysia by JPMorgan Securities
(Malaysia) Sdn Bhd (18146-x) which is a Participating Organization of Bursa Malaysia Berhad and a holder of Capital Markets Services License
issued by the Securities Commission in Malaysia. Pakistan: J. P. Morgan Pakistan Broking (Pvt.) Ltd is a member of the Karachi Stock Exchange
and regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan. Saudi Arabia: J.P.Morgan Saudi Arabia Ltd. is authorised by the Capital
Market Authority of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (CMA) to carry out dealing as an agent, arranging, advising and custody, with respect to
securities business under licence number 35-07079 and its registered address is at 8th Floor, Al-Faisaliyah Tower, King Fahad Road, P.O. Box
51907, Riyadh 11553, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Dubai: JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Dubai Branch is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services
Authority (DFSA) and its registered address is Dubai International Financial Centre-Building 3, Level 7, PO Box 506551, Dubai, UAE.

Research Distribution
To amend research distribution please contact
Tanja Waters, Research Administration,
tanja.x.waters@jpmorgan.com

Country and Region Specific Disclosures


U.K. and European Economic Area (EEA): Unless specified to the contrary, issued and approved for distribution in the U.K. and the EEA by
JPMSL. Investment research issued by JPMSL has been prepared in accordance with JPMSLs policies for managing conflicts of interest arising as
a result of publication and distribution of investment research. Many European regulators require that a firm to establish, implement and maintain
such a policy. This report has been issued in the U.K. only to persons of a kind described in Article 19 (5), 38, 47 and 49 of the Financial Services
and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (all such persons being referred to as "relevant persons"). This document must not be acted
on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to
relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. In other EEA countries, the report has been issued to persons regarded as
professional investors (or equivalent) in their home jurisdiction. Australia: This material is issued and distributed by JPMSAL in Australia to
wholesale clients only. JPMSAL does not issue or distribute this material to retail clients. The recipient of this material must not distribute it to
any third party or outside Australia without the prior written consent of JPMSAL. For the purposes of this paragraph the terms wholesale client
and retail client have the meanings given to them in section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. Germany: This material is distributed in
Germany by J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd., Frankfurt Branch and J.P.Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Frankfurt Branch which are regulated by the
Bundesanstalt fr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht. Hong Kong: The 1% ownership disclosure as of the previous month end satisfies the
requirements under Paragraph 16.5(a) of the Hong Kong Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed by or Registered with the Securities and Futures
Commission. (For research published within the first ten days of the month, the disclosure may be based on the month end data from two months
prior.) J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited is the liquidity provider/market maker for derivative warrants, callable bull bear contracts and
stock options listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited. An updated list can be found on HKEx website: http://www.hkex.com.hk.
Japan: There is a risk that a loss may occur due to a change in the price of the shares in the case of share trading, and that a loss may occur due to
the exchange rate in the case of foreign share trading. In the case of share trading, JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd., will be receiving a
brokerage fee and consumption tax (shouhizei) calculated by multiplying the executed price by the commission rate which was individually agreed
between JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd., and the customer in advance. Financial Instruments Firms: JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.,
Kanto Local Finance Bureau (kinsho) No. 82 Participating Association / Japan Securities Dealers Association, The Financial Futures Association of
Japan, Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association and Japan Securities Investment Advisers Association. Korea: This report may have been
edited or contributed to from time to time by affiliates of J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Ltd, Seoul Branch. Singapore: JPMSS and/or its
affiliates may have a holding in any of the securities discussed in this report; for securities where the holding is 1% or greater, the specific holding
is disclosed in the Important Disclosures section above. India: For private circulation only, not for sale. Pakistan: For private circulation only,
not for sale. New Zealand: This material is issued and distributed by JPMSAL in New Zealand only to persons whose principal business is the
investment of money or who, in the course of and for the purposes of their business, habitually invest money. JPMSAL does not issue or distribute
this material to members of the public as determined in accordance with section 3 of the Securities Act 1978. The recipient of this material must
not distribute it to any third party or outside New Zealand without the prior written consent of JPMSAL. Canada: The information contained
herein is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, a prospectus, an advertisement, a public offering, an offer to sell securities described
herein, or solicitation of an offer to buy securities described herein, in Canada or any province or territory thereof. Any offer or sale of the securities
described herein in Canada will be made only under an exemption from the requirements to file a prospectus with the relevant Canadian securities
regulators and only by a dealer properly registered under applicable securities laws or, alternatively, pursuant to an exemption from the dealer
registration requirement in the relevant province or territory of Canada in which such offer or sale is made. The information contained herein is
under no circumstances to be construed as investment advice in any province or territory of Canada and is not tailored to the needs of the recipient.
To the extent that the information contained herein references securities of an issuer incorporated, formed or created under the laws of Canada or a
province or territory of Canada, any trades in such securities must be conducted through a dealer registered in Canada. No securities commission or
similar regulatory authority in Canada has reviewed or in any way passed judgment upon these materials, the information contained herein or the
merits of the securities described herein, and any representation to the contrary is an offense. Dubai: This report has been issued to persons
regarded as professional clients as defined under the DFSA rules.
General: Additional information is available upon request. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but JPMorgan
Chase & Co. or its affiliates and/or subsidiaries (collectively J.P. Morgan) do not warrant its completeness or accuracy except with respect to any
disclosures relative to JPMS and/or its affiliates and the analysts involvement with the issuer that is the subject of the research. All pricing is as of
the close of market for the securities discussed, unless otherwise stated. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this
material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not intended as an offer or
solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual client
circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies to particular
clients. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned herein.
JPMS distributes in the U.S. research published by non-U.S. affiliates and accepts responsibility for its contents. Periodic updates may be provided
on companies/industries based on company specific developments or announcements, market conditions or any other publicly available information.
Clients should contact analysts and execute transactions through a J.P. Morgan subsidiary or affiliate in their home jurisdiction unless governing law
permits otherwise.
Other Disclosures last revised January 6, 2012.

Copyright 2012 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or
redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan.