Consumer Durables

4QFY12 Result Update

Bajaj Electricals Limited

Facing multiple headwinds

Sell

Institutional Research
Nifty: 4985; Sensex: 16,420

CMP (`) Target (`) Earning Revision

215 189 Downgrade

Bajaj Electrical Limited (BEL) posted subdued 4QFY12 performance wherein weak revenue growth in fans and E&P overshadowed the strong growth registered by the lighting business. Volatile currency and input cost coupled with soaring interest cost weighed on profitability. Higher working capital and delayed execution of projects dented E&P margins, while moderation in demand, high input costs and rising competition kept the consumer durable business margins under tab. We expect BEL to continue to face challenges in both the businesses over the medium term. We prune our earnings estimates and downgrade the stock to Sell. Muted top-line growth: Revenues grew 8.1% to `10.6bn, aided by the 23% growth in the lighting business. The consumer durable segment logged mere 10.4% growth. While consumer appliances like mixer, toaster, induction cookers, water heaters, irons and the Morphy Richards brand posted strong growth of 20-35%, tepid growth in fans (6%) and decline in room cooler segment dragged overall growth. The E&P segments revenues dipped 2.2% owing to slow execution of projects. Margins continue to be under pressure: High RM cost and forex volatility took a toll on margins. Though the lighting business posted EBIT growth of 42%, the consumer durable segment margins were compressed resulting in EBIT declining by 8.7%. BEL imports many appliances from China on account of which it was hit by rupee depreciation (forex loss of `30mn for 4Q and `60mn for FY12). The Company had huge inventory pile up leading to 132% increase in the segments capital employed. The E&P segment was severely hit by high WC and rising interest cost causing 48% drop in EBIT. Overall, EBIDTA fell by ~13% to `862mn with EBIDTA margin dropping to 8.1% (10.1%). PAT fell by ~15% to `490mn burdened by high interest cost (up 58%). Debt as on Mar12, swelled to `1.9bn v/s `1.1bn as on Mar11.

Key Stock Data BSE Code NSE Code Bloomberg Shares O/s mn (FV `2) Market cap (`mn) 52-week high/low 3-m daily avg vol. 500031 BAJAJELEC BJE IN 99.5 21,390 272/133 132,320

Rel. Performance (%) BEL NIFTY BSE CD 1m 7.8 (4.3) (3.0) 3m 19.0 (7.3) (1.2) 12m (17.4) (9.0) 1.6

Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoter FII DII Others Mar12 66.0 5.5 10.0 18.5 Dec11 65.6 6.8 9.3 18.3

E&P business still witnessing stress: The segments order book has been shrinking over the last one year and further declined during 4Q to `6.10bn as on Mar12, down 19% yoy. The slow pace of project awarding owing to macro headwinds is likely to impact the Sep11 segments revenue growth over ensuing quarters. Contribution of the segment fell to 27% 65.6 from 30% from a year earlier. We expect the business to struggle over the medium term, in 6.5 turn impacting overall RoCE and RoE.
10.1 Moderation in growth, profitability likely; downgrade to Sell: FY12 is the fifth 17.8 consecutive year when the companys RoAE has fallen (from 50.2% in FY08 to 19% in

Kamlesh Kotak kamlesh.kotak@amsec.in +91 22 4343 5222 Harshit Kapadia harshit.kapadia@amsec.in +91 22 4343 5221

FY12) and EBIDTAM has shrunk from 10.6% in FY08 to 7.7% in FY12. Of the three business segments, consumer durables and E&P (constituting 75% of total revenues) have been witnessing stress on the growth and margins fronts. Going ahead as well, we expect inflationary pressures, intensifying competition and tough business environment to cap growth. We forecast revenue and PAT growth of 9% and 20% respectively, for FY13 yielding EPS of `14.6 (`16.9 earlier). The stock trades at 18.2x and 14.7x FY12 and FY13 EEPS, respectively. We expect the stock to underperform over the medium term and recommend Sell, with a Target Price of `189, based on 13x FY13 EEPS. Exhibit 2: Key Indicators
FY11 27,394 FY12 30,942 FY13E 33,671 Y/E Mar EBITDAM (%) NPM (%) PER (x) P/BV (x) EV/Sales (x) EV/ EBITDA(x) RoCE (%) RoNW (%) FY10 10.9 5.3 19.8 4.9 1.2 10.6 42.9 35.2 FY11 9.4 5.2 14.3 3.5 0.8 8.7 36.9 27.1 FY12 7.7 3.8 18.2 3.1 0.7 9.7 29.7 18.0 FY13E 8.4 4.3 14.7 2.6 0.7 8.3 29.5 19.3

Exhibit 1: Key Financials

Y/E Mar (`mn) Sales FY10 22,286

yoy (%)
EBITDA

25.9
2,434

22.9
2,580

13.0
2,371

8.8
2,844

yoy (%)
PAT

35.4
1,221

6.0
1,488

(8.1)
1,179

19.9
1,452

yoy (%)
Equity EPS (`)

37.0
195.1 12.5

21.9
197.9 15.1

(20.7)
199.5 11.8

23.2
199.5 14.6

Source: Company, AMSEC Research

Refer Disclosures & Disclaimer at the end of the report. Our reports are available on Fact Set and Bloomberg ASNM <GO>

May 29, 2012

Bajaj Electricals Limited/4QFY12 Result Update Exhibit 3: 4QFY12 performance

Y/E March (`mn) Net sales Other operational income Stock adjustment Consumption of raw materials Purchase of traded goods Employee cost Other expenditure Total expenditure EBITDA Add: other income Interest Depreciation Exceptional item Profit before tax Provision for taxation Reported Profit Equity Capital (FV `2) Basic EPS (In `) EBITDAM (%) PATM (%) Tax / PBT (%) Raw material/ Net sales (%)
Source: Company, AMSEC Research

4QFY12 10,586 15 605 548 7,090 380 1,117 9,740 862 64 163 37 726 236 490 199.3 4.9 8.1 4.6 32.5 72.2

4QFY11 9,794 5 (83) 560 7,153 345 837 8,812 987 91 103 35 (50) 890 315 575 197.7 5.8 10.1 5.8 35.4 78.8

yoy (%) 8.1 196.2 (828.0) (2.2) (0.9) 10.0 33.5 10.5 (12.6) (29.6) 58.1 5.8 (18.4) (25.0) (14.7)

3QFY12 7,929 8 (87) 656 5,368 341 1,011 7,289 648 21 152 29 488 160 328 199.0 3.3

qoq (%) 33.5 94.9 (799.4) (16.4) 32.1 11.3 10.5 33.6 33.1 200.5 7.4 26.8 48.7 47.9 49.2

FY12 30,942 48 (477) 2,224 21,753 1,495 3,624 28,619 2,371 144 631 125 1,759 581 1,179 199.3 11.8

FY11 27,394 19 (772) 1,736 19,969 1,246 2,686 24,864 2,550 161 366 108 (50) 2,186 748 1,438 196.4 14.6 9.3 5.2 34.2 79.2

yoy (%) 13.0 145.5 (38.3) 28.1 8.9 20.0 34.9 15.1 (7.0) (10.2) 72.0 15.9 (100.0) (19.5) (22.3) (18.0)

(195bp) (119bp)

8.2 4.1 32.7 76.0

(3bp) 48bp

7.7 3.8 33.0 77.5

(164bp) (143bp)

May 29, 2012

Bajaj Electricals Limited/4QFY12 Result Update Exhibit 4: Segment-wise performance

Y/E Mar (`mn) Revenue Lighting Consumer Durables Engineering & Projects Others Net Segment Revenue EBIT Lighting Consumer Durables Engineering & Projects Others Total EBIT Less: Interest Other Unallocable Total PBT Capital Employed Lighting Consumer Durables Engineering & Projects Others Total Capital Employed add : Unallocated Assets Total Capital Employed EBIT/ Sales (%) Lighting Consumer Durables Engineering & Projects Others EBIT / Capital Employed (%) Lighting Consumer Durables Engineering & Projects Others
Source: Company, AMSEC Research

4QFY12 ` % `

4QFY11 %

yoy % 23.1 10.4 (2.2) 0.0 8.2

42.3 (8.7) (48.2) (58.3) (14.8) `

FY12 % `

FY11 %

yoy % 21.2 17.5 0.0 32.6 13.0

60.6 3.1 (64.2) 94.4 (7.9)

2,479 4,443 3,678 2 10,602 257 424 205 (1) 886 163 (3) 726 660 1,573 5,116 44 7,393 1,530 8,923 10.4 9.5 5.6 (25.0) 39.0 26.9 4.0 (1.1)

23.4 41.9 34.7 0.0 100.0 29.0 47.8 23.2 (0.1) 100.0

2,013 4,023 3,760 2 9,799 181 464 397 (1) 1,040 103 47 890

20.5 41.1 38.4 0.0 100.0 17.4 44.6 38.1 (0.1) 100.0

7,648 15,005 8,320 18 30,990 594 1,513 265 7 2,378 631 (12) 1,760

24.7 48.4 26.8 0.1 100.0 25.0 63.6 11.1 0.3 100.0

6,312 12,770 8,318 13 27,414 370 1,468 740 4 2,581 367 29 2,186

23.0 46.6 30.3 0.0 100.0 14.3 56.9 28.7 0.1 100.0

8.9 21.3 69.2 0.6 100.0

747 677 5,088 51 6,565 716 7,281 9.0 11.5 10.6 (60.0) 24.2 68.5 7.8 (2.3)

11.4 10.3 77.5 0.8 100.0

(11.7) 132.3 0.5 (15.2) 12.6

660 1,573 5,116 44 7,393 1,530 8,923 7.8 10.1 3.2 40.0 89.9 96.1 5.2 16.1

8.9 21.3 69.2 0.6 100.0

747 677 5,088 51 6,565 716 7,281 5.9 11.5 8.9 27.3 49.5 216.7 14.5 7.0

11.4 10.3 77.5 0.8 100.0

(11.7) 132.3 0.5 (15.2) 12.6

Exhibit 5: E&P segment - Order book trend

(`mn) 11,500 9,500 7,500 5,500 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1.0 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 (x) 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.5

Order book
Source: Company, AMSEC Research

Order book to sales (RHS)

May 29, 2012

Bajaj Electricals Limited/4QFY12 Result Update Business Review: Facing multiple headwinds Lighting - Strong traction: Of the three businesses, lighting is the only business that is doing well for BEL with strong revenue and profitability traction. Consumer Durables Dipping margins: The consumer durable business is growing well, but with lower profitability. Rising competition, volatile currency and high input cost are the key deterrents. BEL sourced 15% of the total products through imports (mainly from China), which reduced to 10% in FY12. Yet EBITM fell to 9.5% in FY12 from the peak of 12.7% in FY10. Fan business - Tapering growth: Another matter of concern for BEL is tapering growth in its fan business. Management cited moderation in fan demand due to the cold weather in 4Q. However, competitors Crompton and Orient posted healthy revenue growth of 10% and 23% respectively, in their fan business in 4Q. Havells is also growing fast, though on a low base. The long-term trend suggests competition is catching up in the fan market and impacting BEL, which is losing market share. Exhibit 6: Fan's share in Consumer Durable Segment
(` mn) 16,000 12,000 8,000 4,000 0 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 (%) 50 46 42 38 34 30

Exhibit 7: Fan Industry Volume Trend of Key players

(mn unit) 10 8 6 4 2 0 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY10 FY11 FY11 4

Fan Revenue Consumer Durable Revenue Share of Fan to the Revenue (RHS)

Bajaj Electrical Crompton Greaves (` /unit) 1,350 1,150 950 750

Orient Paper Havells India

Exhibit 8: Fan Industry Trend : Revenue of Key players

(` /unit) 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

Exhibit 9: Fan Industry Realisation Trend of Key players

FY02

FY03

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

Bajaj Electrical Crompton Greaves

Source: Company, AMSEC Research

Orient Paper Havells India

Bajaj Electrical Crompton Greaves

Orient Paper Havells India

E&P Sharp decline likely: For FY12, the E&P business posted flat revenues, while EBIT halved to 3.2%. Order book of the segment stood at `6.1bn, down 18% yoy and signaling de-growth in revenues in FY13. We forecast 15% lower revenue for the segment, though margins are expected to improve.

May 29, 2012

FY09

Bajaj Electricals Limited/4QFY12 Result Update Exhibit 10: BEL Segment sales - Quarterly trend
(` bn) 10 8 6 4 2 0 1QFY09 2QFY09 3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12

Exhibit 11: BEL Segment EBIT margin - Quarterly trend

(%) 16 10 4 (2) (8) 1QFY09 2QFY09 3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 5

Lighting

Consumer Durables

E&P

Lighting (`mn) 3,500 2,800 2,100 1,400 700 0

Consumer Durables

E&P

Exhibit 12: BEL Segment sales - Yearly trend

(`bn) 40 30 20 10 0 FY07 FY08 Lighting FY09 FY10 FY11 Consumer Durables FY12E FY13E E&P

Exhibit 13: BEL Segment EBIT - Yearly trend

FY07 FY08 Lighting

FY09 FY10 FY11 Consumer Durables

FY12E FY13E E&P

Exhibit 14: Segment EBIT margin - Yearly trend

(%) 11.8 7.0 7.5 5.0 FY07 FY08 Lighting FY09 12.9 10.4 12.6 9.3 7.9 6.0 5.1 FY11 12.7 10.6 11.3 8.8 7.8 3.2 7.9 4.5 FY13E E&P

Exhibit 15: Segment RoCE - Yearly trend

(%) 277.1 213.3 116.9 103.1 63.1 14.4 FY07 112.4 15.5 FY08 Lighting 23.3 18.5 FY09 FY10 E&P 114.2 84.5 41.9 43.3 14.5 FY11 89.9 96.1 5.2 FY12E 98.7 98.2 6.2 FY13E

10.1

10.0

FY10

FY12E

Consumer Durables

Consumer Durables

Source: Company, AMSEC Research

May 29, 2012

Bajaj Electricals Limited/4QFY12 Result Update

Financials
Profit & Loss Account
Y/E March Net Sales Other Operating Income Consumption of materials Employee Cost Other Operating Expenses Total Expenditure EBIDTA Depreciation Operating profit Other Income EBIT Interest Profit Before Tax Tax Prior Year Adjustments Reported Net profit Extraordinary Items Adjusted Net Profit Share O/s mn EPS FY10 22,286 16,524 972 2,357 19,852 2,434 92 2,342 29 2,371 315 2,056 754 82 1,221 50 1,171 98 12.5 FY11 27,394 13 20,947 1,224 2,657 24,828 2,580 108 2,472 57 2,529 291 2,239 740 11 1,488 50 1,438 99 15.1 FY12 30,942 48 23,499 1,495 3,624 28,618 2,371 125 2,246 144 2,390 631 1,760 581 1,179 1,179 100 11.8 FY13E 33,671 50 25,364 1,794 3,719 30,876 2,844 150 2,694 100 2,794 594 2,201 748 1,452 1,452 100 14.6

(`mn)
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March PBT and exceptional items Non-cash adjustments Chg in working capital Income tax paid Cash From Operations Capital expenditure Change in investments Other investing cash flow Cash From Investing Issue of equity Issue/(repay) debt Dividends paid Interests paid Other financing cash flow Cash From Financing Cash Flow Opening Balance Closing Balance FY10 2,117 407 (1,564) (912) 48 (149) (50) (190) (389) 1,634 (620) (201) (369) (34) 410 70 538 608 FY11 2,189 471 (828) (806) 1,025 (627) (0) 1 (207) 55 (354) (274) (365) (11) (949) (131) 612 486 FY12 1,760 757 (1,181) (571) 765 (436) (75) (511) 750 (322) (631) (202) 51 486 537 FY13E 2,201 761 (1,011) (817) 1,133 (300) (59) (359) 128 (319) (594) (784) (11) 536 526

Ratios
Y/E March FY10 FY11 15.1 15.6 61.8 0.8 8.7 14.3 3.5 22.9 6.0 21.9 35.4 9.4 9.2 5.2 79.3 27.1 36.9 33.1 69 111 37 90 1.5 1.2 13.7 4.0 0.2 8.5 22.2 140.0 FY12 11.8 13.1 70.2 0.7 9.7 18.2 3.1 13.0 (8.1) (20.7) 19.0 7.7 7.7 3.8 77.5 18.0 29.7 33.0 70 108 41 122 1.6 1.3 12.3 3.8 0.2 3.6 27.1 140.0 FY13E 14.6 16.1 81.2 0.7 8.3 14.7 2.6 8.8 19.9 23.2 11.0 8.4 8.3 4.3 77.0 19.3 29.5 34.0 76 109 45 128 1.6 1.3 11.7 3.6 0.3 4.5 25.1 160.0 Per share (`) EPS 12.5 CEPS 12.9 Book value 50.7 Valuation ratios (x) EV/Net sales 1.2 EV/EBITDA 10.6 P/E 19.8 P/BV 4.9 Growth yoy (%) Sales 25.9 EBITDA 35.4 PAT 37.0 Gross fixed asset 10.0 Profitability & return ratios (%) EBITDA 10.9 EBIT margin 10.6 NPM/TI 5.3 RM/Sales 75.8 RoANW 35.2 RoACE 42.9 Tax/PBT 36.6 Working capital & liquidity (days) Net working cycle 69 Receivables 107 Inventory 36 Payables 55 Current ratio (x) 1.7 Quick ratio (x) 1.4 Turnover & leverage ratios (x) Gross asset turnover 13.7 Total asset turnover 4.0 Net debt/Equity 0.3 Interest coverage ratio 7.4 Dividend (%) Payout 23.4 Per share 120.0

Balance Sheet
Y/E March SOURCES OF FUNDS : Equity Share Capital Reserves Total Total Shareholders Funds Total Debt Secured Loans Unsecured Loans Total Liabilities APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block Less : Accum. Dep. Less:Impairment of Assets Net Block Capital Work in Progress Investments Current assets, loan & adv Total Current Assets Inventories Sundry Debtors Cash and Bank Loans and Advances Other Current assets Total Current Liabilities Current Liabilities Provisions Net Current Assets Net Deferred Tax Total Assets 11,990 2,094 7,507 608 1,777 6,916 6,273 643 5,074 5 6,462 15,738 2,946 9,112 486 1,651 1,544 10,425 9,694 731 5,314 20 7,232 17,186 3,552 9,218 537 2,015 1,864 10,645 9,848 797 6,540 19 8,870 20,095 4,115 10,877 526 2,377 2,200 12,561 11,620 941 7,533 34 10,087 1,700 658 26 1,016 1 366 2,302 743 26 1,533 366 2,738 868 1,870 441 3,038 1,018 2,020 500 195 4,749 4,944 1,518 1,018 500 6,462 198 5,913 6,111 1,122 622 500 7,233 199 6,799 6,999 1,872 1,372 500 8,870 199 7,887 8,087 2,000 1,500 500 10,087 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E

May 29, 2012

Bajaj Electricals Limited/4QFY12 Result Update

Recommendation rationale
Buy: Potential upside of Accumulate: Reduce: Sell: Not Rated (NR): >+15% (absolute returns) >+5 to +15% +5 to -5% < -5% No investment opinion on the stock Neutral: Underweight: Overweight:

Sector rating
The sector is expected to outperform relative to the Sensex. The sector is expected to underperform relative to the Sensex. The sector is expected to perform in line with the Sensex.

Disclosure of Interest
Analyst Certification: We, Kamlesh Kotak and Harshit Kapadia, the research analysts and authors of this report, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflects our personal views about the subject securities, issuers, products, sectors or industries. It is also certified that no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research report receive compensation based on overall revenues of the company (Asian Markets Securities Private Limited), hereinafter referred to as AMSEC and has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. AMSEC, its associates, directors and employees maybe owning the stock discussed herein and to that extent may have vested interest in the price performance of the stock.

1. Name of the analyst: 2. Qualifications of the analyst: 3. Analysts ownership of any stock related to the information contained: 4. AMSEC ownership of any stock related to the information contained: 5. Broking relationship with company covered: 6. Investment Banking relationship with company covered:

Kamlesh Kotak C.A. None None None None

Harshit Kapadia PGDM (Finance) None None None None

May 29, 2012

Bajaj Electricals Limited/4QFY12 Result Update Disclaimer

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AMSEC Coordinates
Kamlesh Kotak Vikrant Oak Ashka Mehta Nishit Shah Ravikant Agarwal Head Equity Research Head Institutional Sales Institutional Equity Sales Institutional Equity Sales Institutional Equity Sales kamlesh.kotak@amsec.in vikrant.oak@amsec.in ashka.mehta@amsec.in nishit.shah@amsec.in ravikant.agarwal@amsec.in +91 22 4343 5222 +91 22 4343 5058 +91 22 4343 5056 +91 22 4343 5253 +91 22 4343 5287

241/242, Nirmal, 15th Floor, Nariman Point 400 021, India. Tel: +91 22 4343 5000 Fax: +91 22 4343 5043 research.amsec@amsec.in, Website: www.amsec.in

May 29, 2012