Project Work I
1.Introduction
A treasury bond is a negotiable, coupon-bearing debt obligation issued by the government and backed by its full faith and credit, with ranging maturity from one to thirty years from the date of issue.1 Also called government security, this derives from the fact that they have the security of the government in paying them back. Treasury bonds comprise part of the financial instruments in the hands of the state to manage the economic environment. Moreover, treasury bonds are referred as government debt, because the it sells its debt to finance its deficit. In addition, at the maturity period of the bond the government pays the intended yield as well as the principal invested arisen from the governments received revenue.
Nevertheless, out of such statements there are some simple questions arising. What was the trigger of initiation of such a monetary instrument to be invented? Who does it benefit the most? Would economy be the same without its usage? And lastly, is it possible that once the government implemented such a tool to simply cease its usage, pay back all the investors, and have sufficient budget to continue project financing without borrowings?
Treasury Bond definition, http://www.investorwords.com/5061/Treasury_Bond.html Ferguson, N., The Cash Nexus; Money and Power in the Modern Word,1700 2000, pg. 107.
use of forced loans (prestiti) as a form of taxation further increased the importance of the debt.3
As it is usually happens, when a new instrument regardless of the nature of use, and with reference to the fact that it becomes an indivisible part of the aspects of life it is used, it evolves in accordance to the frequent changing needs of the demand and supply of this same instrument. In terms of the public debt, its management developed accordingly. An important development here was transferability, where in Florence; the communal debt was systematically increased by the fiscal heavy reliance of the forced loans. 4 What we see so far is the fact that the government, being aware of its power and competence in regard to the laws they issued, provided itself with a supporting policy to finance their budget deficit, and saw public borrowing as an inevitable tool to manage its portfolio.
3 4
Ferguson, N., cited, pg.107 Ferguson, N., cited, pg.108 5 Government Bond, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_bond 6 Government Bond, National Bank; Financial.
In other words, it builds up its reputation and confidence in people on its ability to pay back and rewarding its investors with the received yield. Furthermore, it provides itself and others with mutual reliance in future investments.
The money marketwhich includes the federal funds marketprovides the natural point of contact between the Federal Reserve and the financial system. The money market is a term used for wholesale markets in short term credit or IOUs, comprising debt instruments maturing within one year. The market is international in scope and helps in
8 9
Treasury Bonds, www.Investorguide.com Kaiku, E., Treasury Bonds, Hapesire, April 16 2007,pg 22. Open market operations, http://www.newyorkfed.org/aboutthefed/fedpoint/fed32.html
economizing on the use of cash or money. 10 Open market operations by the Federal Reserve involve the buying and selling of government securities in the secondary market in which previously issued securities are traded.11 In addition, what we see as beneficiary to the state is the way it provides itself with the funds to finance its budgeted projects and moreover prevent economic crumps due to lack of money.
The government sells Treasury bonds by auction in the primary market, but they can also be purchased through a broker in the secondary market. A broker will charge a fee for such a transaction, but the government charges no fee to participate in auctions. Treasury bonds are marketable securities, meaning that they can be traded after the initial purchase. Additionally, they are highly liquid because there is an active secondary market for them. Prices on the secondary market and at auction are determined by interest rates. Treasury bonds issued today are not callable, so they will continue to accrue interest until the maturity date.12
10 11
12
Akhtar, M. A., Understanding open market operations, pg.7. Akhtar, M. A., Cited, pg.35 Treasury Bonds, www.Investorguide.com
re make use of it. Despite the fact that bonds seem appealing to the point of mutual satisfaction, in case the government would not be in necessity of liquidity, it is believed that the bonds issuing would not occur in the first place. There are three types of securities issued by the U.S. Treasury. These are distinguished by the amount of time from the initial sale of the bond to maturity.
Treasury bonds
These securities have the longest maturity of any bond issued by the U.S. Treasury, from 10 to 30 years. The 30-year bond is also called the "long bond." Denominations range from $1000 to $1 million. T-bonds pay interest every 6 months at a fixed coupon rate. As mentioned above, these bonds are not callable, but some older T-bonds available on the secondary market are callable within five years of the maturity date.
Treasury notes T-notes have maturities between 1 and 10 years. Denominations range from $1000 to $5000 and are determined by the amount of time to maturity. Like T-bonds, these securities pay interest semi-annually at a fixed coupon rate.
CPI-indexed Treasury Notes (TIPS) TIPS are inflation-indexed securities issued by the U.S. Treasury in an effort to widen the selection of government securities available to investors. The notes have a 10 year maturity and pay interest at a fixed rate. The principal increases with the inflation rate, which in turn increases future interest payments. One danger associated with investing in TIPS is that taxes are due on the increased principal before maturity when the investor gains access to the principal. In times of high inflation, tax payments could even exceed the interest income earned by the note.
Treasury Bills
T-bills are available with maturities of 13 weeks, 26 weeks and 52 weeks. They are purchased at a discount to their $10,000 face value, and the full amount is received at maturity (making them zero-coupon). The bills are sold at auction where the price of sale is determined by how much the bill is worth on the date of issue, which depends mainly on interest rates.13
What is seen as the logic behind such open market operation is the willingness to risk on the predictability of the interest rate. If the bond yield is higher than that of the market, there is an evident profit on the side of the one who initiates the first instance of selling. On the other hand, the second buyer has to risk on the fact that the market interest will remain in such proportions to gain the desired reward out of the yield or if odds are that he will be in need of liquidity. In the case that the market interest increases beyond the one
13 14
printed on the bond, and the case is that if same buyer needs immediate liquidity, he can sell it for less that he actually paid and resulting in loss. The contrary would occur if the interest is constantly changing in negative proportions; it may be the case for him to decide to resell the bond in order for him to make profit out of the bond, without waiting its maturity.
What is seen as inevitable, is the gap of development between the two kinds of government. A gap that would reflect in the years to come as the worst case scenario in managing the market.
15
16
Jarvis, C., The rise and the fall of Albanias pyramid scheme. Tushaj, A., Market Concentration in the Banking Sector: Evidence from Albania, pg. 5
Deriving from the fact that the overall conditions were led by the unknown, it was easier for differently skilled people to create informal financial institutions and to convince others to deposit their money, which consequently came the rise of the Pyramid schemes. The pyramid scheme phenomenon in Albania is important because its scale relative to the size of the economy was unprecedented.19
The new class of inexperienced account owners became easy targets for swindlers, who promised exorbitant interest rates for those who joined their schemes. At the beginning they kept their promises, paying their obligations from the next wave of investors' money. Deriving from the fact that these kind of deposit taking individuals appeared for the first time, regardless from the nature of their intention, they had to be fair to the depositors. In such terms, they returned the promised interest and the amount of money to the first depositors in order to build up confidence, and to attract more to come.
17
18
Tushaj, A., Cited, pg.5 Elbirt, C., Albania under the shadow of Pyramids. 19 Jarvis, C., cited.
This is why such schemes are called pyramid 20schemes: the bottom layers of deposits must grow fast in order to keep the system running 21. The wide appeal of Albania's schemes can be attributed to several factors, including Albanians' unfamiliarity with financial markets; the deficiencies of the country's formal financial system, which encouraged the development of an informal market and, within this market, of the pyramid schemes; and failures of governance. 22
The informal lending companies were initially regarded as making an important economic contribution. However, deposit-taking companies invested on their own account instead of making loans. These companies were the ones that turned into pyramid schemes.23
20
21
See picture 1 Page 18 Elbirt, C.,cited. 22 Jarvis, C., cited. 23 Jarvis, C., cited. 24 Jarvis, C., cited.
10
It seems obvious that the continuous raise of the interest rates would imply that the scheme operator would have to increase the interest rate of return revenue constantly in order to attract more investors in order pay the previously claimed interest. In a scaling approach, it would come to the case that he/she would actually bring the interest rate up to 100% or more, due to competition, and at the yield to maturity it would be impossible to pay back the investors. As result, such a fear would arise from the same word of mouth that brought its popularity in acquiring the populations found, the very same would make people to Run at the scheme. In addition with its liabilities exceeding its assets, not only he/she would make no profit, despite the result of losses is clearly eminent, but what would be the results in terms of paying back? How would people react ? Experts and other professionals predicted what was going to happen and warned the government of time, the case was sent to a trial, but the frail legal framework favored such a scheme25. From this experience, the legal framework was prepared and empowered to prevent such a scenario from repeating. The bank of Albania is the only financial institution that plays the regulatory role. Out of the traumatic experience in the 1997, with the collapse of the pyramid schemes that dried up the populations savings overnight, Albania was induced to anarchy, where the people reacted very violently 26. Government revenues collapsed as customs posts and tax offices were burned 27. Preventing states income would mean an inevitable end. The lack of revenue would leave the state out of funds to invest in the future prosperity of its own country. Somehow, this can be associated with the fact that the population blamed the government for their own losses, and if they did not have any assets, the government would neither. After 1997 crisis, the macroeconomic environment led to important changes in Albanian banking sector which was involved in liquidation, restructuring, privatization and
25 26
Elbirt, C.,cited. Fuster, T., The Truth and the Surface in the Albanian economy. Shekulli. 27 Jarvis, C., cited.
11
acquisition activities of some banks28. This, in order to build up confidence and to develop the sector of financial institutions.
In order to achieve its final objective Bank of Albania sets the operational framework of monetary policy instruments used to intervene in the money market. The instruments employed for such a purpose include: the instruments used in the open market operations, standing facilities and other liquidity providing instruments 30.
The attempts to develop this market have been focused on the formulation of laws and constructions of institutions that will participate in it. The result is: there are no shares listed in the stock market and an official stock market doesnt exit. The only securities that are trading are T-bills. In absence of stock exchange, T-bills are traded from Bank of Albania .Thus T-bills activity evaluates as indicator of competition. 31
28 29
Tushaj, A., Cited, pg.23 Akhtar, M. A., Cited, pg.1 30 Monetary Policy, Bank of Albania 31 Tushaj, A., Cited, pg.20
12
When the government wants to initiate a development project, in the condition of finding itself in budget deficit, it issues IOU-s in order to finance the project. The bond issued by the Albanian government have a maturity of one year and are represented by the Ministry of Finance, and kept in a registry form. Those are debt instruments through which the government borrows from the public.32 It is also helpful to understand the countrys condition in terms of demographic aspects, deriving from the fact that part of Albanians income come from the relatives abroad. In addition, when seeing the Albanian market operate, it can easily be noticed that three different currencies are mass used (the US Dollar, the Euro, and the Lek). Out of such statement, it is the central banks responsibility to provide assistance in managing the domestic currency and its effects on the overall economy.
32
33
Kaiku, E.,cited, pg 22. Monetary policy Statement for the third quarter of 2009, BoA, pg.9. 34 Monetary policy Statement, cited, pg.9. 35 Monetary policy Statement, cited, pg.9
13
It is in this extent, that the management of the monetary instruments becomes clear. BoA, through the decrease of the interest rate on the government securities, discourages investors from applying to the states auctions and as a result leaving considerate amount of liquidity in circulation. In such terms, the interest rate becomes competitive to that of the second level banks and inducing depositors to invest in the conventional deposit. By doing so, the liability side of the second level banks increases, thus providing ample funds to be lent out of credit and to raise the liquidity amount.
36
14
When it comes to the currency management, BoA, takes under consideration the seasonal development of currencys circulation in the domestic market. In addition to the constant monitoring it does due to the fact that the domestic market makes use of other currencies as well. It happens so, partly because Albania is periodically visited by emigrants which come and increase the foreign currency, and partly because the merchants to prevent themselves from the ever changing rates of exchange, trade their merchandise in the currency they initially bought it.
It is a tendency of the domestic currency to depreciate in length between July and August in the foreign exchange domestic market 37. Out of this statement it is obvious that in this period there is and excessive demand for the domestic currency, and as a result of such liquidity, comes the depreciation of the ALL. If this fact affects other spheres of the overall economy, out of the scope predicted for such a tendency, the state provides bonds to tighten the liquidity in circulation. Moreover, this is also done in regard to the economic goal that the central bank wants to achieve for the period.
T-Bills and T-Notes are short and long-term government borrowing instruments. They are guaranteed by the Albanian Government. They provide fixed returns (if you invest your money till due maturity) and are liquid instruments. In a volatile market where the interest rates are going up, there is risk.
15
Investing on securities is not like investing on time deposit. It is possible that you lose a part of your principal amount if you cannot hold securities till their due maturity. T-Bills are sold at a discount and the gain at maturity is known in advance. T-notes have coupons. Coupon-bearing T-notes are issued at fixed or floating interest rates. Coupon payments of T-Notes are done semi-annually (on every 6-months) These instruments may be bought or sold before the original due maturity at current market prices. T-Bills can be converted to cash at any time. They may be sold on the secondary market before maturity39.
In recent years, the Albanian banking system is characterized by a continued increased trend, both in terms of number of banks and in the expansion of banking activity. These trends are accompanied by an increase of lending activity and expansion of the range of products offered by banks, too. At the end of 2007, there were 17 second level banks on banking market 41. Additionally, there is a wide range of financial institutions competing with each other, in order to attract depositors with competing interest rates. As a result, in such small counrty as Albania, and with the previously stated experience on investment, many depositors are yet again skeptical to rely on the banking system, or non-state financial institution, in spite of the fact that it is the BoAs responsibility to monitor and to alter the key interest rate.
39
Investments, T-bills/T-notes, http://bkt.com.al/409.aspx Monetary policy Statement, cited, pg.10 41 Tushaj, A., Cited, pg.12
40
16
In a nutshell, when it comes to invest in financial institutions, depositors in Albania are more prone to be attracted to the government security rather than the conventional deposits. It is commonly taken for granted that the state is default free, and as a result depositors have the security of the state that they will be paid back. This, for the fact that, as stated in the previous paragraphs, the state can simply print money to pay people back.
6. Conclusion
In conclusion, it is to be said that governments, through the recorded history, have made use of government security to finance its budget deficit, to acquire funds for future projects, and to manage the monetary policy. The governments treasury, be it: bond, bill or even note, as part of the monetary instruments, has well defined features and usage in accordance to the needs of the issuer. Nevertheless, the needs of the issuer are related to the results desired to perform in the domestic economic environment, as part of its responsibility in managing the changing factors and variables arising from economic trends, operations and forecasts. In an individual approach, the government security is seen as a risk - free deposit investment, due to the security and faith they have in the government to pay them back. Secondly, what is more appealing to them is the higher return rate in contrast to the conventional deposit. In addition, what repels depositors from investing elsewhere is the traumatic experience of the previous economic collapse, thus investing in the government security is both, highly profitable, safe, and psychologically comfortable.
17
18
Abbreviations page
BoA GDP T Bond T Bill IOU OMO ALL Bank of Albania; Albanias central bank Gross Domestic Product Treasury bond Treasury bill I Owe You; Government security Open Market Operation Albanian Lek
19
List of reference
Akhtar, M., A., Understanding Open Market Operations, pg. 1; 7; 35., http://research.stlouisfed.org/aggreg/meeks.pdf, Accessed on: 1st of August 2010. Elbirt, C., Albania under the shadow of Pyramids, http://www.worldbank.org/html/prddr/trans/so97/albania2.htm Accessed on: 4th of August 2010. Ferguson, N., The Cash Nexus; Money and Power in the Modern Word,1700 2000, pg. 107; 108., http://www.scribd.com/doc/25189824/Ferguson-Niall-The-Cash-Nexus-Money-andPower-in-the-Modern-World-1700-2000-Basic-Books-2001, Accessed on: 3 rd of August 2010. Fuster, T., The Truth and the Surface in the Albanian economy. Shekulli, 16th July 2010, Read on: 29th of July 2010. Government Bonds, National Bank; Financial, http://info.nbf.ca/fbn/cda/theme/0,,divId-2_langId-1_navCode-10090_navCodeExTh0,00.html Accessed on: Accessed on: 3 rd of August 2010. Government bond, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_bond, Accessed on: 2 nd of August 2010 Investments, T-bills/T-notes, Banka Kombetare Tregtare, http://bkt.com.al/409.aspx, Accessed on: 9th of August 2010. Jarvis, C., The rise and the fall of Albanias pyramid scheme, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2000/03/jarvis.htm Accessed on: 4th of August 2010. Kaiku, E., Treasury Bonds, Hapesire, April 16 2007,pg 22. Accessed on: 4th of August 2010. Monetary Policy for the third quarter 2009, Bank of Albania, pg: 9; 10; 11; 18., http://www.bankofalbania.org/web/periodical_reports_of_monetary_policy_262_2.php, Accessed on: 2 nd of August 2010.
20
Open market operations, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, http://www.newyorkfed.org/aboutthefed/fedpoint/fed32.html Accessed on: 4th of August 2010. Treasury Bond definition, http://www.investorwords.com/5061/Treasury_Bond.html, Accessed on: 2 nd of August 2010. Tushaj, A., Market concentration in the banking sector: Evidence from Albania, pg. 5; 10; 20; 25., http://www.unibamberg.de/fileadmin/uni/fakultaeten/sowi_lehrstuehle/vwl_finanzwissenschaft/Forschung/ BERG/BERG_73_Tushaj.pdf, Accessed on: 1st of August 2010.
21
Contents
1.Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 2 1.2 Historical background to public debt ............................................................................... 2 1.3 Development approach to current days............................................................................ 3 2. Operating with government security ...................................................................................... 4 2.1 Open Market Operation .................................................................................................... 4 2.2 Classification of bonds ...................................................................................................... 5 Treasury bonds ............................................................................................................................ 6 Treasury notes.............................................................................................................................. 6 CPI-indexed Treasury Notes (TIPS) ...................................................................................... 6 Treasury Bills .............................................................................................................................. 7 2.3 Practical demonstration..................................................................................................... 7 3. Albanians investments retrospective ................................................................................... 8 3.1 Bad investments ................................................................................................................ 9 3.2 How did the schemes operate? ....................................................................................... 10 4. Central Banks role ............................................................................................................... 12 4.1 Treasury bills as Albanias monetary policy ................................................................. 12
4.1.1 Managing public debt .................................................................................................. 13 4.1.2 Liquidity and currency management............................................................................. 14
5. Government security as a mean of personal investment..................................................... 15 5.2 Competing conventional deposits .................................................................................. 16 6. Conclusion ............................................................................................................................. 17 Picture 1. Graphical Scheme of the Pyramid ........................................................................... 18 Abbreviations page .................................................................................................................... 19 List of reference ......................................................................................................................... 20
22
23