Kritscher

Climate Change Projec1ons: Sources

Today:
Some sneak peaks of the latest climate-change projec1ons from 15 or so GCMs that are providing projec1ons for the next IPCC Climate-Change Assessment Report (AR5) Special aIen1on to Mediterranean regions around the world Global Climate Model (GCM)

Climate Change Projec1ons: Forcings

RCP8.5

IPCC Fi,h Assessment

(s,ll underway, but climate projec,ons becoming available) Representa1ve Concentra1on Pathways (RCPs) of greenhouse- gas emissions and concentra1ons
RCP4.5 RCP2.6

Five Mediterranean Climates

Projected Temperature Changes

Projected warming in Mediterranean regions is moderated (a li<le) by their coastal & middle- laAtude locaAons
RCP4.5

Median temperature trends from 14 GCMs under two RCP emissions scenarios

RCP8.5

Projected Precipita1on Changes

Among 15 projec1ons with RCP4.5 emissions, how many models yield increasing (decreasing) precipita1on?

Projected Precipita1on Changes

Among 15 projec1ons with RCP8.5 emissions, how many models yield increasing (decreasing) precipita1on? Median declines typically -20% or more in Mediterranean regions

Historical Snowmelt Contribu1ons

Frac1onal Contribu1ons of Snowmelt to Runo

Barne> et al., Nature, 2005

Projected Snowfall Changes

Fraction of Precipitation Falling in Months that Historically Had -3C < Avg_Tmin < 0C

Fraction of Total Precipitation

Earman & DeGnger, JWCC, 2011

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Projected Snow-Season Changes: California

(9 CMIP5 RCP4.5 GCMs BCCA downscaled, VIC snow simulated)

Projected Changes in Snow Season Northern Sierra Nevada, California

length of snow season declines from ~6 months to ~3 months

Courtesy of David Pierce, SIO

Projected Flood Condi1ons: California

Rainfall runo Snowmelt

Winter1me ood ows increase in both frequency & magnitudes in Northern & Southern Sierra Spring-snowmelt high ows from Southern Sierra expected to decline Causes of these changes are mixes of larger/more storms, higher snowlines & even weIer soils, depending on basin

Das et al., 2011, Clima,c Change

Projec1ons of Extreme Precipita1on

Results from the US ParallelClimate Model, which yields small change in AVERAGE precipitation

Atmospheric Rivers

Landfalling atmospheric rivers

3 Orographic cloud and precipita1on

Al1tude MSL (km)

Atmospheric River
0

Controlling layer (upslope winds)

Rain shadow

Ocean

-Lateral structure from satellite data (~400 km width & 2000 km long) -VerAcal structure from airplanes & radar (intense jet of vapor transport between 1 2 km above sea level; 10-20 Mississippis) -Of parAcular importance on west coasts of conAnents

Atmospheric Rivers & Russian River ooding

Ralph et al., GRL, 2006: All 7 major oods of Russian River since 1997 have been atmospheric rivers

Other storms

Most recent analyses (Florsheim & DeGnger, in review):

Atmospheric River Storms

Among the 39 Russian River oods > 50,000 cfs from 1948-2011, 34 have been caused by ARs.

87% of oods since 1948 have been fed by atmospheric rivers!

Atmospheric Rivers & Climate Change

a)
Observed

Projected Water Vapor & Low-Level Winds

b)

By end of 21st Century, most GCMs (in a 7-member A2-emissions ensemble) yield:
More atmospheric vapor content, but

weakening westerly winds

90W 60N

3.5

4.0 40N

Projected Water Vapor & Low-Level Winds

c)

Net increase in intensity of extreme AR storms Warmer ARs (+1.8 C) snowline raised by about 1000 feet on average Lengthening of AR seasons (maybe?)

20N

23 December 2090 ECHAM5 GCM under A2 emissions scenario

DeGnger, JAWRA, 2011

90W

180

150W

120W

Atmospheric Rivers & Climate Change

2046-2065

Intensi1es of ARs from dierent direc1ons

San Jacinto Mtns Santa Ana Mtns San Gabriel Mtns

1961-2000

2081-2100

DeGnger, JAWRA, 2011

Conclusions
Mediterranean regions are focus of almost unanimous projecAons of precipitaAon decline Projected temperature changes moderated somewhat by coastal & midlaAtude locaAons PrecipitaAon extremes expected to increase; ood risks may increase
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