Proceedings of International Conference on Geoinformatics and Modeling Geographical Systems & Fifth International Workshop on GIS Beijing

2nd-4th April, 2004 Beijing, PR China (Page: 300-306)

Title: The model and Principle of the Modernization

Author: Prof. HE Chuanqi China Center for Modernization Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences E-mail: ccmr@mail.las.ac.cn http://www.modernization.com.cn

The model and Principle of the Modernization

HE Chuanqi Prof. and Director China Center for Modernization Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences E-mail: ccmr@mail.las.ac.cn http://www.modernization.com.cn Abstract: This paper introduces the periodic table, the coordinate and the Roadmap of human civilization process, and also the four evaluate models and principles of the modernization. Key words: Periodic table, Coordinate, Roadmap, Civilization, Modernization The modernization is the national goal of china in the 21st century. But up to now, there is not an unique definition of the modernization. We believe that the modernization was a part of the civilization progress. Please take a look at Yangtze River of China. At the upper of the river, there are some traces of primitive society, such as the matrilineal family of the Mosuo people in the cross area of Yunnan province and Sichuan province. At the middle of the river, you can find the countryside is still in the agriculture society with small household economy. At the lower of the river, there are the characters of industrial society in the south of Jiangshu province. At the mouth of the river, Shanghai is on the way of new economy, and the knowledge economy and knowledge society has emerged. From the upper to the lower and mouth of the river, we can identify the characters of primitive, agriculture, industrial and knowledge society orderly, just like the civilization flows from the upper to mouth of the river. Can we get some inspiration from this Yangtze River Model of the civilization process? Sure. 1The definitions of the modernization There are a lot of definitions of the modernization since 18th century. For example, Black (1966) defined modernization as the third great revolutionary transformation in human affairs and the process of rapid change since the scientific revolution. The process of this change is of the same great as that from prehuman to human and from primitive to civilized society. This was the one point of the classical modernization theory. Besides the classical modernization theory, other theories such as the post-modernization theory (Inglehart 1997) and reflexive modernization theory (Beck 1994), also describe the meaning of the modernization. Since 1998, HE Chuanqi had extended Blacks definition. Firstly, HE identified some natural characters of human civilization and suggested some new models, such as the Periodic Table of Civilization Process (table 1), the Coordinate of Civilization Process (fig. 1) and the Roadmap of Civilization Process (fig. 2). Secondly, HE defined the modernization as the process and changes of the civilization progress since the industrial revolution, which includes the transformations from traditional to modern society, economy, politics and civilization. Thirdly, HE identified the two phases of the modernization from 18 century to the end of 21 century, and the First Phase Modernization was the process of the great transformation from agriculture to industrial society, economy and civilization, the Second Phase Modernization was the process of the great transformation from industrial to Knowledge society, economy and civilization. These are the core context of the Second Modernization Theory (HE 1999).
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Fig. 1 Fig. 2 We had studies the process of the world modernization from 1950 to 2000, and the results was published in the series of the China Modernization Report from 2001 to 2003. For example in 2000, there are about 24 nations who is on the way of the second phase modernization, about 100 nations on the way of the first phase modernization, about 2 nations and so many regions stood in the agriculture society, and some tribes kept the situation of the primitive society. 2The evaluate models of the modernization Black said No two societies are at the same level of development at a given point in time (Black 1966). If this was true, we could say that no two regions are at the same level of development at a given point in time. So the process of the modernization is a complex issue both in national and regional level. For any nation or region, the modernization is one kind of great change and the process to reach, keep or catch up the advanced level of the world since the industrial revolution. To understand and analysis the process of the modernization, we do need and have to develop the evaluate models.
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Model one: the assessment model of the first phase modernization. The first modernization index reflects the degree of industrialization and urbanization in the countries or regions, and includes 10 indicators in the field of society and economy. Model two: the assessment model of the second phase modernization. The second modernization index reflects the progress of the countries or regions in the field of the production, transmission and use of new knowledge, and includes 16 indicators in the aspects of knowledge innovation, knowledge transmission, living quality and economical quality. Model three: the assessment model of the comprehensive modernization. The comprehensive modernization index reflects the relative gap between one country or region and the advanced level of the world, and includes the 12 indicators in the field of society, economy and knowledge. Model four: the four groups of Modernization Process. According to the relative level of modernization (the second modernization index or the comprehensive modernization index), we can divided the nations or regions into four groups: high modernized, upper middle modernized, lower middle modernized and low modernized group (table 2). The level of both of high and upper middle modernized group is over the world average, and the level of others is under the world average.

Table 2 The Four Groups of the Nations in 2000

SMI High Modernized Upper middle modernized World average Lower middle modernized Low modernized 80 -120 point 46-80 point 46 point 30-46 point 0- 30 point 33 51 No. of nations 17 30 CMI 80-100 point 50-80 point 50 point 30-50 point 0- 30 point 42 45 No. of nations 17 27

Note: SMI: Second Modernization Index, CMI: Comprehensive Modernization Index 3The principles of the modernization We have investigated the modernization process of 131 countries and 205 regions (table 3) and find some facts, among them, the four principles were very clear. Table 3 The 205 Regions
Countries United States European Union Mexico India China No. of the Regions 50 73 32 16 34

Principle one: the process of modernization is not synchronization. No two countries or regions will initiate and complete the two phase of the modernization, and different countries and regions will finish the two phase of the modernization at different time.
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Principle two: the distribution of modernization is asymmetry. The vertical and horizontal distribution of the world modernization is uneven at national, regional and indicator level. The different Countries or regions are at the different level of the modernization, and different indicators of a country or region are at the different level of the modernization at a given point in time.

Principle three: the structure of distribution is relative stable. If we divide the nations and regions into four groups based on their relative level of the modernization, the vertical structure is relative stable. Generally, less than 20% of countries or regions can reach and keep the advanced level in the world. Principle four: the position and disparity is changeable. In the process of world modernization, the relative position of countries or regions and the disparity between the countries or regions and the world advanced level will change in an about regular probability (fig. 3). Fig. 3
4The hot issues in the future

In the history of more than 200 years since industrial revolution, not all states or regions had reached the frontier of the world, not all advanced countries or regions had kept their leadership in the world, and not all developing nations and areas had catch up the developed countries. How to understand these facts? There are a lot of hot issues waiting for the study. For example, why and how only few countries and regions become the leaders in the process of the modernization? Who and why can reach and keep the top level of world? How to catch up the advanced level of the world? How to understand the relationship between the modernization and natural resources? How to learn the effects of the spatial position of the country or region in the earth in the process of the world modernization? We not only hope to cooperate, but also need to cooperate with other scientists in the modernization study in the coming years. Please give us a hand.

References Beck, U., A. Giddens, and S. Lash. 1994. Reflexive Modernization. Stanford, California: Stanford University Press. Black, C.E. 1966. The Dynamics of Modernization. New York, Evanstan, London: Harper & Row, Publishers. He, C.Q. 1999. Second Modernization. Beijing: High Education Press He, C.Q. et al. 2004. China Modernization Report 2004. Beijing: Peking University Press Inglehart, R. 1997. Modernization and Postmodernization. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.

Fig. 1.

The Coordinate of the Human Civilization Process

NoteS: StartDDevelopMMatureTTransition, EEmerge K. S. Knowledge society, I. S.Industrial society, A. S. Agriculture society, P. S.Primitive society, PPrimitiveAAgricultureIIndustryKKnowledge

Fig. 2

The Roadmap of the Human Civilization Process

Structure

Fig. 3 Analysis

The Transition Probability of Countrys position in 20 Years by Markov Chain