326 CM Warming Generic Updated

Warming Generic – Updated
DDI 2008 – Clark/Martin Lab

Gabrielle & TJ
Warming File
Warming File..........................................................................................................................................................1
Strategy Sheet.........................................................................................................................................................8
Warming Now – Generic.......................................................................................................................................9
Warming Now – Generic.....................................................................................................................................10
Warming Now – Generic.....................................................................................................................................11
Warming Now – 10 Degrees................................................................................................................................12
Warming Now – Arctic Melting.........................................................................................................................13
Warming Now – Precipitation............................................................................................................................14
Warming Now – Sea Level Rise..........................................................................................................................15
Warming Now – AT: Balloons and Satellites Disprove....................................................................................16
Models Good.........................................................................................................................................................17
AT: Models Fail – Chaos Theory.......................................................................................................................18
AT: Models Fail – Urban Heat Island................................................................................................................19
Positive Feedback – Melting Ice.........................................................................................................................20
Positive Feedback – Ocean Sink Saturation......................................................................................................21
Positive Feedback – Permafrost.........................................................................................................................22
Positive Feedback – Water Vapor......................................................................................................................23
Positive Feedback – AT: Clouds = Negative Feedback....................................................................................24
Positive Feedbacks > Negative Feedbacks.........................................................................................................25
Warming Anthropogenic.....................................................................................................................................26
Warming Anthropogenic – CO2.........................................................................................................................29
Now Key................................................................................................................................................................30
Consensus Goes Aff – IPCC................................................................................................................................31
IPCC Qualified.....................................................................................................................................................32
Author Indict – Michaels & McKitrick.............................................................................................................33
**WARMING BAD IMPACTS..........................................................................................................................34
Warming Bad – Extinction.................................................................................................................................35
Warming Bad – Extinction.................................................................................................................................36
Warming Bad – African Instability Module.....................................................................................................37
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Warming Bad – Ext. African Instability............................................................................................................38

Warming Bad – Arctic Conflict Module............................................................................................................39
Warming Bad – Ext. Arctic Conflict..................................................................................................................40
Warming Bad – Asia Module..............................................................................................................................41
Warming Bad – Berents Sea Module.................................................................................................................42
Warming Bad – Biodiversity Module................................................................................................................43
Warming Bad – Biodiversity Module................................................................................................................44
Warming Bad – Ext. Biodiversity.......................................................................................................................45
Warming Bad – Blackouts Module....................................................................................................................48
Warming Bad – Coral.........................................................................................................................................49
Warming Bad – Ext. Coral Key to Biodiversity................................................................................................57
Warming Bad – Coral – AT: Sea Level Rise Helps Coral...............................................................................58
Warming Bad – Disease.......................................................................................................................................59
Warming Bad – Droughts...................................................................................................................................62
Warming Bad – Droughts...................................................................................................................................63
Warming Bad – Economy Module.....................................................................................................................64
Warming Bad – Ext. Economy...........................................................................................................................65
Warming Bad – Ext. Economy...........................................................................................................................66
Warming Bad – Flooding....................................................................................................................................67
Warming Bad – Food Prices...............................................................................................................................68
Warming Bad – Hurricanes................................................................................................................................69
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Warming Bad – Ice Age......................................................................................................................................70

Warming Bad – Ice Age – Brink........................................................................................................................76
Warming Bad – Ice Age – Oceans Internal.......................................................................................................77
Warming Bad – Ice Age – Oceans Internal.......................................................................................................78
Warming Bad – Ice Age – Biodiversity Impact.................................................................................................79
Warming Bad – Ice Age – Coral Impact...........................................................................................................80
Warming Bad – Ice Age – Starvation Impact...................................................................................................81
Warming Bad – Ice Age – Extinction Impact...................................................................................................82
Warming Bad – India-China War.....................................................................................................................83
Warming Bad – Instability..................................................................................................................................84
Warming Bad – Malaria.....................................................................................................................................85
Warming Bad – Monsoons..................................................................................................................................86
Warming Bad – Oceans Module.........................................................................................................................87
Warming Bad – Sea Level Rise...........................................................................................................................88
Warming Bad – Spratly Conflict Module..........................................................................................................89
Warming Bad – Terrorism.................................................................................................................................90
Warming Bad – Terrorism.................................................................................................................................91
Warming Bad – Trade Module...........................................................................................................................92
Warming Bad – War...........................................................................................................................................93
Warming Bad – War...........................................................................................................................................94
Warming Bad – War...........................................................................................................................................95
Warming Bad – Water Wars Module................................................................................................................96
Warming Bad – Ext. Water Wars......................................................................................................................97
Warming Bad – Wildfires Module.....................................................................................................................98
Warming Bad – Wildfires Module.....................................................................................................................99
Warming Bad – Laundry List..........................................................................................................................100
**WARMING BAD IMPACT CALC.............................................................................................................101
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Warming Bad – Outweighs Nuclear War........................................................................................................102

Warming Bad – Impact Magnifier...................................................................................................................103
Warming Bad – Timeframe..............................................................................................................................104
Warming Bad – Weigh Warming First...........................................................................................................105
**AFF ANSWERS.............................................................................................................................................106
Ice Age Frontline................................................................................................................................................107
SO2 Frontline.....................................................................................................................................................108
SO2 Frontline.....................................................................................................................................................109
SO2 Frontline.....................................................................................................................................................110
SO2 Answers – Ext. 1 – Dimming Bad (Starvation).......................................................................................111
CO2 Frontline.....................................................................................................................................................112
CO2 Frontline.....................................................................................................................................................113
CO2 Frontline.....................................................................................................................................................114
CO2 Bad – Ext. 1 – Weeds................................................................................................................................115
CO2 Bad – Ext. 1 – Weeds................................................................................................................................116
CO2 Bad – Ext. 3 – Cheatgrass.........................................................................................................................117
CO2 Bad – Ext. 4 – Plant Protein.....................................................................................................................118
**NEG DEFENSE.............................................................................................................................................119
Warming Defense 1NC......................................................................................................................................120
Ext. 1 – No Impact.............................................................................................................................................123
Ext. 2 – No Solvency – China............................................................................................................................124
Ext. 2 – No Solvency – Positive Feedbacks......................................................................................................125
Ext. 2 – No Solvency – Warming Rates Too High..........................................................................................126
Ext. 3 – Warming Doesn’t Exist.......................................................................................................................127
Ext. 4 – Models Bad...........................................................................................................................................128
Ext. 4 – Models Bad...........................................................................................................................................129
Ext. 4 – Models Bad – IPCC Specific...............................................................................................................130
Ext. 5 – Negative Feedback – Aerosols.............................................................................................................131
Ext. 5 – Negative Feedback – Clouds...............................................................................................................132
Ext. 5 – Negative Feedback – Bering Strait.....................................................................................................133
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Ext. 6 – Warming Not Anthropogenic.............................................................................................................134

Ext. 6 – Warming Not Anthropogenic.............................................................................................................135
Ext. 6 – Warming Not CO2 Caused.................................................................................................................136
Ext. 6 – Warming Not CO2 Caused.................................................................................................................137
Impacts Inevitable..............................................................................................................................................138
Warming Skeptics Qualified.............................................................................................................................139
IPCC Indicts.......................................................................................................................................................140
IPCC Indicts.......................................................................................................................................................141
IPCC Indicts.......................................................................................................................................................142
Randall & Schwartz Indicts..............................................................................................................................143
AT: Consensus Goes Aff....................................................................................................................................144
AT: Consensus Goes Aff....................................................................................................................................145
AT: Consensus Goes Aff – IPCC-Specific.......................................................................................................146
AT: Consensus Goes Aff – IPCC-Specific.......................................................................................................147
AT: Consensus Goes Aff – Oreskes-Specific...................................................................................................148
**NEG – AT: AFF IMPACTS..........................................................................................................................149
AT: Biodiversity.................................................................................................................................................150
AT: Coral............................................................................................................................................................151
AT: Coral............................................................................................................................................................152
AT: Coral – Sea Level Rise...............................................................................................................................153
AT: Disease.........................................................................................................................................................154
AT: Economy......................................................................................................................................................155
AT: Flooding.......................................................................................................................................................156
AT: Hurricanes..................................................................................................................................................157
AT: Hurricanes..................................................................................................................................................158
AT: Hurricanes..................................................................................................................................................159
AT: Hurricanes – AT: THC Slowdown Now..................................................................................................160
AT: Ice Age.........................................................................................................................................................161
AT: Ice Age.........................................................................................................................................................162
AT: Ice Age.........................................................................................................................................................163
AT: Ice Age.........................................................................................................................................................164
AT: Malaria........................................................................................................................................................165
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AT: Malaria........................................................................................................................................................166
AT: Malaria........................................................................................................................................................167
AT: Marine Biodiversity...................................................................................................................................168
AT: Oceans.........................................................................................................................................................169
AT: Resource Wars............................................................................................................................................170
AT: Resource Wars............................................................................................................................................171
AT: Resource Wars............................................................................................................................................172
AT: Sea Level Rise.............................................................................................................................................173
AT: Storms.........................................................................................................................................................174
AT: Wars (Generic)...........................................................................................................................................175
**NEG OFFENSE.............................................................................................................................................176
Ice Age 1NC........................................................................................................................................................177
Ice Age 1NC........................................................................................................................................................178
Ice Age Uniqueness – Ice Age Soon..................................................................................................................179
Ice Age Links – Warming Stops Ice Age.........................................................................................................180
Ice Age Impact – Ice Age  Extinction...........................................................................................................185
Ice Age Impact – Ice Age  Extinction...........................................................................................................186
CO2 1NC Module...............................................................................................................................................187
CO2 1NC Module...............................................................................................................................................188
CO2 Link – CO2 Helps Plants..........................................................................................................................189
CO2 Link – CO2 Helps Plants – Adaptation..................................................................................................196
CO2 Link – CO2 Helps Plants – Drought Resistance....................................................................................197
CO2 Link – CO2 Helps Plants – Water Efficiency.........................................................................................198
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CO2 Impact – Ext. Carbon Sinks.....................................................................................................................199

CO2 Impact – Ext. Starvation..........................................................................................................................202
CO2 Impact – Species Extinction.....................................................................................................................203
CO2 Impact Calc – Ag Outweighs Warming..................................................................................................204
CO2 Good – AT: Weeds....................................................................................................................................205
CO2 Good – AT: Weeds....................................................................................................................................206
CO2 Good – AT: Plant Protein.........................................................................................................................207
CO2 Good – AT: Soil Erosion...........................................................................................................................208
SO2 1NC Module...............................................................................................................................................209
SO2 – Ext. SO2  Cooling...............................................................................................................................210
SO2 – Ext. SO2  Cooling...............................................................................................................................211
SO2 – Ext. SO2  Cooling...............................................................................................................................212
SO2 – Ext. SO2  Cooling...............................................................................................................................213
SO2 – Ext. SO2  Cooling...............................................................................................................................214
SO2 – AT: Hurts Plants.....................................................................................................................................215
Iron Sulfate CP...................................................................................................................................................216
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Strategy Sheet
Defense – on the neg, there are some more specific indicts that you can
substitute into the frontlines depending on the aff. For example, if the aff
claims to solve CO2, you can read CO2 doesn’t cause warming. There are also
a bunch of indicts of their models and the IPCC – these are helpful things to
read, because virtually all the aff cards rely on model predictions and many of
their cards cite the IPCC. Don’t let them get away with claiming that there’s a
consensus on their behalf. We should have cards answering all of their main
claims.
Offense – the best scenario is probably CO2 ag. Ice age is a little bit weaker,
and the SO2 arguments are probably the weakest in the file, although if you
want some offense but don’t want to say that warming is bad, SO2 could be a
good option.
Beware of conflicting arguments. Not all of the arguments can be run

simultaneously. Read through your cards and know what you’re running
before you get up to give the 1NC. A good example is the SO2 turn, which
says that trying to solve warming decreases the amounts of SO2 in the air,
which ultimately leads to massive increases in warming. Obviously you
wouldn’t also want to read cards that warming is good.
It’s also of utmost importance that you understand the arguments. The
warming debate can get really high-tech and scientific. You need to
understand the basic science behind the arguments you’re reading (it’s not
hard!) and be able to out-tech them when they challenge your claims. It’ll also
help you provide a better explanation to the judge.
Good luck!
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Warming Now – Generic

Warming exists now and will continue with current GHG (green house gas)
levels
Gerald A. Meehl et al., senior scholar at the National Center for Atmospheric Research – Boulder, 2008, “Climate Change
Projections for the Twenty-First Century and Climate Change Commitment in the CCSM3”, Gerald A. Meehl, Warren
M. Washington, Benjamin D. Santer, William D. Collins, Julie M. Arblaster, Aixue Hu, David M. Lawrence, Haiyan Teng, Lawrence
E. Buja, and Warren G. Strand
The T85 version of the CCSM3 is run for a 1990 control run, and an 1870 control run, which serves as the starting point for
eight ensemble member simulations of twentieth-century climate, three SRES scenario experiments for twenty-first-century
climate [A2 (five members), A1B, and B1], and three stabilization simulations, one with concentrations held constant at year
2000 values, and two with concentrations held constant at year 2100 values for A1B and B1. The response of the CCSM3 to
increasing GHGs(green house gases) depends in part on the equilibrium climate sensitivity of the model, and oceanic heat
uptake. Together, these determine the TCR, and the mean value and percent change of the meridional overturning circulation in
the Atlantic influence the ocean heat uptake. The global average and geographical plots show we are already committed to
significant warming and sea level rise even with no further increases in GHG concentrations. However, any realistic
scenario has increases in GHG concentrations, which then further increase the future warming and sea level rise. These
results confirm and quantify earlier studies with simple and global models in that the temperature change commitment is
considerably less than the sea level rise commitment by 2100, percentage-wise. That is, temperature increase shows signs of
leveling off 100 yr after stabilization, while the sea level continues to rise unabated with proportionately much greater
increases compared to temperature, with these committed increases over the twenty-first century roughly an order of magnitude
greater for sea level rise than temperature change. The percent increases of committed sea level rise here are roughly 220%,
with the changes calculated relative to the respective sea level rise during the twentieth century. Though this is a result that has
been acknowledged in other contexts, it is not widely appreciated and is quantified here with multiple CCSM3 simulations.
Midlatitude summer drying noted in previous model simulations in a future warmer climate is simulated in the CCSM3, though
the relatively small drying does not result in greater soil moisture stress on vegetation in the model.
GHG and warming are increasing in the Status Quo

IPCC, a scientific intergovernmental body set up by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and by the United Nations
Environment Programme (UNEP), 2007, Climate Change 2007:Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers
An Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-
report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_spm.pdf
There is high agreement and much evidence that with current climate change mitigation policies and related sustainable
development practices, global GHG emissions will continue to grow over the next few decades. {3.1} The IPCC Special
Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES, 2000) projects an increase of global GHG emissions by 25 to 90% (CO2-eq)
between 2000 and 2030 (Figure SPM.5), with fossil fuels maintaining their dominant position in the global energy mix to
2030 and beyond. More recent scenarios without additional emissions mitigation are comparable in range.8,9 {3.1} Continued
GHG emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate
system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century (Table
SPM.1, Figure SPM.5). {3.2.1}
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Global warming and CO2 rate is increasing
European Environment Agency, 8-14-08, “Europe needs adaptation strategies to limit climate change impacts,”
http://www.eea.europa.eu/pressroom/newsreleases/climate_report-en
More frequent and more economically costly storms, floods, droughts and other extreme weather. Wetter conditions in northern
Europe but drier weather in the south that could threaten agriculture in some areas. More frequent and more intense heatwaves, posing
a lethal threat to the elderly and frail. Melting glaciers, with three-quarters of those in the Swiss Alps likely to disappear by 2050.
Rising sea levels for centuries to come. These are among the impacts of global climate change that are already being seen in Europe
or are projected to happen over the coming decades as global temperatures rise, according to a new report from the European
Environment Agency (EEA). Strong evidence exists that most of the global warming over the past 50 years has been caused by
human activities, in particular emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) from the burning of fossil
fuels. The concentration of CO2, the main greenhouse gas, in the lower atmosphere is now at its highest for at least 420,000 years -
possibly even 20 million years - and stands 34% above its level before the Industrial Revolution. The rise has been accelerating since
1950. The summer floods of 2002 and last year's summer heatwave are recent examples of how destructive extreme weather can be.
The serious flooding in 11 countries in August 2002 killed about 80 people, affected more than 600,000 and caused economic losses
of at least 15 billion US$. In the summer 2003 heatwave western and southern Europe recorded more than 20,000 excess deaths,
particularly among elderly people. Crop harvests in many southern countries were down by as much as 30%. Melting reduced the
mass of the Alpine glaciers by one-tenth in 2003 alone. "This report pulls together a wealth of evidence that climate change is already
happening and having widespread impacts, many of them with substantial economic costs, on people and ecosystems across Europe,"
said Prof. Jacqueline McGlade, EEA Executive Director. She added: "Europe has to continue to lead worldwide efforts to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions, but this report also underlines that strategies are needed, at European, regional, national and local level, to
adapt to climate change. This is a phenomenon that will considerably affect our societies and environments for decades and centuries
to come." The extent and rate of the climate changes under way most likely exceed all natural variation in climate over the last
thousand years and possibly longer. The 1990s were the warmest decade on record and the three hottest years recorded - 1998, 2002
and 2003 - have occurred in the last six years. The global warming rate is now almost 0.2 °C per decade.
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Warming rates are increasing – action is key
T. M. L. Wigley, National Center for Atmospheric Research, and S. C. B. Raper, Climatic Research Unit, 7-20-01, Science Vol.
293. no. 5529, pp. 451 – 454, “Interpretation of High Projections for Global-Mean Warming”
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/293/5529/451
In summary, we have shown that the very high upper-limit warming rate of about 0.5°C/decade given in the IPCC TAR (4) is much
less likely than warmings in the center of the distribution, which are about 0.3°C/decade. Even warming at this rate, however, is very
large compared with the observed warming over the past century, and considerably larger than the rate of warming suggested in the
IPCC SAR (8). In many of the scenarios considered, the rate of warming is still high at the end of the 21st century; further warming
through the 22nd century would be virtually certain in these cases. Whether or not such rapid warming will occur and be sustained
depends, of course, on actions taken to control climate change. If the near future were to follow a rapid warming pathway, and the
expected impacts were to occur, it is likely that mitigation efforts would be initiated rapidly in the hope of reducing the rate and
magnitude of change. Inertia in the climate system would, however, lead to only a slow response to such efforts and guarantee that
future warming would still be large (37).
Global warming rate is accelerating

Joseph Romm, editor of Climate Progress, Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress29-8-07, “Hurricane Katrina and the
myth of global warming adaptation” http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2007/8/29/94352/7786
If we won't adapt to the realities of having one city below sea level in hurricane alley, what are the chances we are going to adapt to
the realities of having all our great Gulf and Atlantic Coast cities at risk for the same fate as New Orleans -- since sea level from
climate change will ultimately put many cities, like Miami, below sea level? And just how do you adapt to sea levels rising 6 to 12
inches a decade for centuries, which well may be our fate by 2100 if we don't reverse greenhouse-gas emissions trends soon. Climate
change driven by human-caused GHGs is already happening much faster than past climate change from natural causes -- and it is
accelerating.
Warming rates are increasing

Darren Osborne, ABC Science staff writer, 6-19-08, “Ocean review finds warming on the rise”
http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2008/06/19/2279924.htm?site=science&topic=latest
A long-standing difference between climate models and observations has been resolved with researchers finding that the world's
oceans have been warming faster than previously thought. The paper, published today in Nature, shows ocean warming and thermal
expansion trends for the past five decades are 50% larger than earlier previously estimated. The finding also adds weight to a growing
scientific chorus of warnings about the pace and consequences of rising oceans.
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Warming Now – 10 Degrees

Fossil Fuel use enables 10 degree temperature rises
Sir. John Houghton, 4/5/05, co-chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) , professor in atmospheric
physics at the University of Oxford, former Chief Executive at the Met Office and founder of the Hadley Centre. Institue of Physics ,
Global warming, http://www.iop.org/EJ/article/0034-4885/68/6/R02/rpp5_6_R02.pdf?request-id=1c900945-f246-42ec-a806-
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7.6. Longer-term climate change From the beginning of the industrial revolution until 2000 the
burning of fossil fuels released approximately 600 Gt of carbon in the form of CO2 into the
atmosphere. Under the SRES A1B scenario (figure 18) a further 1500 Gt will be released by the year
2100. The reserves of fossil fuels in total are sufficient to enable their rate of use to continue to
grow well beyond the year 2100. If that were to happen the global average temperaturewould
continue to rise and could, in the 22nd century, reach very high levels, perhaps up to 10°C higher
than today. The associated changes in climate would be correspondingly large and could well be
irreversible [82].
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Warming Now – Arctic Melting

Global warming occurring now- huge Arctic melt proves.
Andrew C.Revkins, Reporter-The New York Times, 10-02-08, “Arctic Melt Unnerves the Experts”,
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/02/science/earth/02arct.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
The Arctic ice cap shrank so much this summer that waves briefly lapped along two long-imagined Arctic shipping
routes, the Northwest Passage over Canada and the Northern Sea Route over Russia. Over all, the floating ice dwindled to an
extent unparalleled in a century or more, by several estimates. N ow the six-month dark season has returned to the North
Pole. In the deepening chill, new ice is already spreading over vast stretches of the Arctic Ocean. Astonished by the
summer’s changes, scientists are studying the forces that exposed one million square miles of open water — six
Californias — beyond the average since satellites started measurements in 1979. At a recent gathering of sea-ice experts at
the University of Alaska in Fairbanks, Hajo Eicken, a geophysicist, summarized it this way: “Our stock in trade seems to be
going away.” Scientists are also unnerved by the summer’s implications for the future, and their ability to predict it.
Complicating the picture, the striking Arctic change was as much a result of ice moving as melting, many say. A new study, led
by Son Nghiem at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and appearing this week in Geophysical Research Letters, used satellites
and buoys to show that winds since 2000 had pushed huge amounts of thick old ice out of the Arctic basin past Greenland. The
thin floes that formed on the resulting open water melted quicker or could be shuffled together by winds and similarly expelled,
the authors said. The pace of change has far exceeded what had been estimated by almost all the simulations used to
envision how the Arctic will respond to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases linked to global warming. But that
disconnect can cut two ways. Are the models overly conservative? Or are they missing natural influences that can cause wide
swings in ice and temperature, thereby dwarfing the slow background warming?
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Warming Now – Precipitation

Warming is occurring - Precipitation models prove
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So far, we have been presenting results solely for atmospheric surface temperature change. An
even more important indicator of climate change is precipitation. With warming at the Earth’s
surface, increased evaporation from the oceans and from many land areas will lead, on average, to
increased atmospheric water vapour content and therefore also, on average, to increased
precipitation. The nature of the atmosphere’s hydrological cycle dominated by the condensation of
water vapour leads to an expectation that the atmosphere’s average relative humidity should
remain about the same irrespective of changes in the average surface temperature [72]. The
atmosphere’s water vapour content, therefore, should increase as its water holding capacity
increases by about 6.5% per °C 10. Model projections indicate increases in precipitation broadly
related to surface temperature increases of about 3% per °C [73]—but also see section 7.5.
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Warming Now – Sea Level Rise

Warming Now – sea level rise and melting ice prove
Rising sea level is consistent with warming (Figure SPM.1). Global average sea level has risen since 1961 at an average rate of 1.8
[1.3 to 2.3] mm/yr and since 1993 at 3.1 [2.4 to 3.8] mm/yr, with contributions from thermal expansion, melting glaciers and ice caps,
and the polar ice sheets. Whether the faster rate for 1993 to 2003 reflects decadal variation or an increase in the longer-term trend is
unclear. {1.1} Observed decreases in snow and ice extent are also consistent with warming (Figure SPM.1). Satellite data since 1978
show that annual average Arctic sea ice extent has shrunk by 2.7 [2.1 to 3.3]% per decade, with larger decreases in summer of 7.4 [5.0
to 9.8]% per decade. Mountain glaciers and snow cover on average have declined in both hemispheres. {1.1
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Warming Now – AT: Balloons and Satellites Disprove

Balloon and satellite models correlate and prove warming now
University of Alabama (“Comparing satellite & balloon climate data corroborates slower rate of global warming”, 5/14/2003,
http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=11540).
The UAH team's research is published in the May 2003 edition of the American Meteorological Society's "Journal of Atmospheric and
Oceanic Technology." "We know the climate is changing," said Christy, a professor of atmospheric science and director of UAH's
Earth System Science Center. "Earth's climate has never been stable. What we don't know is the rate of natural climate change, which
makes it really tough to say how much of the warming that we see might be due to things like adding greenhouse gases to the
atmosphere." The study published in the JAOT describes an updated global temperature dataset using NOAA satellite measurements
of the atmosphere's microwave emissions, which change with the temperature. In this new version, the UAH team applied a more
accurate accounting for temperature changes caused by the satellites' east-west drift. To test the accuracy of the new dataset, Christy
and his colleagues used independent data from 28 radiosonde weather balloon sites in an area bounded by eastern Canada, the
Caribbean, Alaska and the Marshall Islands in the Western Pacific. They also used American, British and Russian composite datasets
of hundreds of weather balloon sites around the world. They used balloon data to test the satellite readings because balloon-borne
thermometers and satellites both measure temperatures in deep layers of the atmosphere -- comparing apples to apples. "There is a 94
to 98 percent correlation between the satellite data and the different balloon datasets," said Christy. "The more difficult statistic to
measure, the overall trend in the lower troposphere, agreed so well it was difficult to estimate the error bars." Ultimately, the team
calculated a 95 percent confidence in the satellite-based temperature trend within plus or minus 0.05 degrees Celsius per decade. If
the satellite data are reliable and accurate over the wide range of environments and climates represented by the balloon weather
stations, Christy said, it is likely to be reliable over the rest of the globe.
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Models Good
Prefer recent models –modeling capabilities have advanced
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6.4. Model evaluation [51] An obvious test of a climate model is to run it for a number of years of
simulated time and compare in detail the model-generated climate to the current observed climate in both
its average and its variability. Models have improved greatly in recent years against such tests. However,
it is also necessary to demonstrate the model’s ability to accurately simulate changes in climate due to
changing climate forcing. This has been done by testing the model’s ability to simulate the effects of large
perturbations of the climate, for instance such as arise from El Niño events (see section 7.3) or from
volcanic eruptions. For instance, climate perturbations resulting from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in
1991, both in the global average [52] and regionally [53], were well simulated by models. Models have
also been tested through comparing data from paleoclimate studies with simulations of past climates when
the distribution of incident solar radiation on the Earth was substantially different from that at present (see
section 3.3). The increase in available computing power in recent years has enabled comparisons to be
made of model runs from different initial conditions (often referred to as ensembles) [54], so exploring
model ‘natural’ variability and prediction uncertainty (see next section). Through these various studies
confidence has been built in the value of models to simulate changes of climate that occur because of
human activities.
Problems with models have been corrected and they are now very reliable
V. Ramaswamy et al (Phd in Geosciences & Program in Atmospheric, executive summary for the US climate change science
program, 2006, “Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere,” http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap1-1/finalreport/sap1-1-
final-execsum.pdf).
Previously reported discrepancies between the amount of warming near the surface and higher in the atmosphere have been used to
challenge the reliability of climate models and the reality of humaninduced global warming. Specifically, surface data showed
substantial global-average warming, while early versions of satellite and radiosonde data showed little or no warming above the
surface. This significant discrepancy no longer exists because errors in the satellite and radiosonde data have been identified and
corrected. New data sets have also been developed that do not show such discrepancies.
Models agree on fundamental effects of global warming – prefer consensus

V. Ramaswamy et al (Phd in Geosciences & Program in Atmospheric, executive summary for the US climate change science
program, 2006, “Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere,” http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap1-1/finalreport/sap1-1-
final-execsum.pdf).
The most recent climate model simulations give a range of results for changes in global-average temperature. Some models show
more warming in the troposphere than at the surface, while a slightly smaller number of simulations show the opposite behavior.
There is no fundamental inconsistency among these model results and observations at the global scale.
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AT: Models Fail – Chaos Theory

Models Are Accurate- chaos theory applies to weather not climate
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In the last section, it was stated that confidence in models arises from their ability to describe current
climate and to simulate some of the effect of changes in climate forcing in the past. But is there evidence
apart from that of models to support the view that climate is predictable? In section 3.3 we pointed out
that the correlation between the Milankovitch cycles in the Earth’s orbital parameters and the cycles of
climate change (see section 3.3) provides strong evidence to substantiate the Earth’s orbital variations as
the main factor responsible for triggering large climate changes, such as the ice ages, although the nature
of some of the feedbacks still needs to be understood. The existence of this surprising amount of regularity
suggests that the climate system is not strongly chaotic so far as these large changes are concerned, but
responds in a largely predictable way to Milankovitch forcing. Changes in climate as a result of the
increase of greenhouse gases are driven by 1372 changes in the radiative regime at the top of the
atmosphere that are not dissimilar in kind (although different in distribution) from the changes that
provide Milankovitch forcing. It can be argued, therefore, that the increases in greenhouse gases will also
result in a largely predictable response [56].
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AT: Models Fail – Urban Heat Island

The urban heat island effect is negligible
IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Climate Change 2001: Working Group I: The Scientific Basis,
http://www.grida.no/CLIMATE /IPCC_TAR/wg1/052.htm
Clearly, the urban heat island effect is a real climate change in urban areas, but is not representative of larger areas. Extensive tests
have shown that the urban heat island effects are no more than about 0.05°C up to 1990 in the global temperature records used in this
chapter to depict climate change. Thus we have assumed an uncertainty of zero in global land-surface air temperature in 1900 due to
urbanisation, linearly increasing to 0.06°C (two standard deviations 0.12°C) in 2000.
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Positive Feedback – Melting Ice

Melted ice advances warming 10 fold- bare ground absorbs heat
e63190d24817, 1367
Ice-albedo feedback. An ice or snow surface is a powerful reflector of solar radiation (the albedo is a
measure of its reflectivity). As some ice melts at thewarmer surface, solar radiation, previously reflected
back to space by the ice or snow, is absorbed leading to further increased warming. This is another
positive feedback that on its own would increase the global average temperature rise due to doubled
carbon dioxide by about 20%.
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Positive Feedback – Ocean Sink Saturation

Ocean sink saturating now – less CO2 absorbed in the ocean, more is left in the
atmosphere accelerating warming.
U.Schuster and A.J Watson, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK, 11-8-2007,
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 112, C11006, doi:10.1029/2006JC003941, 2007,
http://www.agu.org/journals/jc/jc0711/2006JC003941/
[1] A time series of observations from merchant ships between the U.K. and the Caribbean is used to establish the
variability of sea surface pCO2 and air-to-sea flux from the mid-1990s to early 2000s. We show that the sink for
atmospheric CO2 exhibits important interannual variability, which is in phase across large regions from year to year.
Additionally, there has been an interdecadal decline, evident throughout the study region but especially significant in the
northeast of the area covered, with the sink reducing >50% from the mid-1990s to the period 2002–2005. A review of
available observations suggests a large region of decrease covering much of the North Atlantic but excluding the western
subtropical areas. We estimate that the uptake of the region between 20°N and 65°N declined by ~0.24 Pg C a−1 from
1994/1995 to 2002–2005. Declining rates of wintertime mixing and ventilation between surface and subsurface waters due to
increasing stratification, linked to variation in the North Atlantic Oscillation, are suggested as the main cause of the change.
These are exacerbated by a contribution from the changing buffer capacity of the ocean water, as the carbon content of
surface waters increases
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Positive Feedback – Permafrost

Melting ice releases permafrost-contributing 70% to atmospheric carbon
Alan Dupont, Michael Hintze Professor of International Security and Director of the Centre for International Security Studies at the
University of Sydney, Survival, Volume http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/title%7Econtent=t713659919%7Edb=all
%7Etab=issueslist%7Ebranches=50 - v5050, Issue 3 June 2008 , pages 29 – 54, The Strategic Implications of Climate Change, 43
Another risk factor is the stability of high-latitude permafrost. There is clear evidence that ground which was once frozen all year
round is melting at higher and higher latitudes. Although there are no definitive estimates of the volume of gases trapped under the
permafrost, their carbon content is thought to be considerable – perhaps as much as 500bn tonnes, the equivalent of 70% of all carbon
currently present in the atmosphere.52 Its release could be quite rapid and widespread, as warming progresses, and would include a
significant amount of methane gas, which is one of the most damaging of the main greenhouse gases. Should this occur, the
authoritative Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions of future global warming would have to be revised
upward by a substantial margin, since IPCC calculations only take account of emissions from fossil-fuel combustion.
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Positive Feedback – Water Vapor

Positive Feedback- Water vapor traps heat
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Water vapour feedback [47]. With a warmer atmosphere more evaporation occurs from the ocean and
from wet land surfaces. On average, therefore, a warmer atmosphere will possess a higher water vapour
content. Since water vapour is a powerful greenhouse gas, on average a positive feedback results, of a
magnitude that is estimated approximately to double the increase in the global average temperature that
would arise with fixed water vapour [48].
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Positive Feedback – AT: Clouds = Negative Feedback

Clouds have negligible effect on warming- reflexivity and absorption cancel
out
e63190d24817, 1366
Cloud-radiation feedback. This is more complicated as several processes are involved. Clouds interfere
with the transfer of radiation in the atmosphere in two ways (figure 16). First, they reflect a certain
proportion of solar radiation back to space, so reducing the total energy available to the system. Second,
they absorb thermal radiation emitted by the Earth’s surface so blanketing the surface in a similar way to
greenhouse gases. Which effect dominates for any particular cloud depends on the cloud temperature
(and hence on the cloud height) and on its detailed optical properties (e.g. its reflectivity to solar radiation
and its interaction with thermal radiation). The latter depends on its thickness, whether the cloud is of
water or ice, its liquid or solid water content and the average size of the cloud particles. In general, for low
clouds the reflectivity effect wins; for high clouds, by contrast, the blanketing effect is dominant. The
overall feedback effect of clouds, therefore, can be either positive or negative. Climate is very sensitive to
possible changes in cloud amount or structure, as can be seen from the results of models discussed in
later sections. To illustrate this, table 2 shows that the hypothetical effect on the climate, of changes of a
few per cent in cloud cover is comparable with the expected changes due to a doubling of the carbon
dioxide concentration. The largest contribution to the range of uncertainty quoted in the last entry in the
table is that due to lack of knowledge regarding cloud feedback.
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Positive Feedbacks > Negative Feedbacks

Positive feedbacks outweigh negative feedbacks- makes warming 2 times
stronger
e63190d24817, 1350
This increasedCO2 is leading to global warming of the Earth’s surface through its enhanced greenhouse effect. Let us imagine, for
instance, that the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere suddenly doubled, everything else remaining the same (figure 5). What would
happen to the numbers in the radiation budget presented earlier (figure 2)? The solar radiation budget would not be affected. But the
thermal radiation emitted from CO2 in the atmosphere will originate on average from a higher and colder level than before (figure 4).
The thermal radiation budget will, therefore, be reduced, the amount of reduction being about 4Wm−2 (see section 5) [6]. To restore
the radiation balance the surface and lower atmosphere will warm. If nothing changes apart from their temperature—in other words,
clouds, water vapour, ice and snow cover and so on, are all the same as before—a radiative transfer calculation indicates that the
temperature change would be about 1.2°C. In reality, of course, many of these other factors will change, some of them in ways that
add to the warming (positive feedbacks), others in ways that reduce the warming (negative feedbacks). The situation is, therefore,
much more complicated than this simple calculation; it will be considered in more detail in section 6. Suffice it to say here, that the
best estimate, at the present time, of the increased average temperature of the Earth’s surface if CO2 levels were to be doubled
is about twice that of the simple calculation: 2.5°C. As the next section will illustrate, for the global average temperature this is a
large change
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Warming Anthropogenic
Scientific consensus is that warming exists and is man made. The result is
destruction of the world.
Serge Galam, professor at the University of Paris, 8/30/2007, “Global Warming: The Sacrificial Temptation”. Centre de Recherche
enEpistemologie Appliquee (CREA), Ecole Polytechnique and CNRS
The scientific community is extremely active on the issue by setting detailed scenarios on the dramatic consequences of the
current trend and urge governments to act immediately. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is monitoring a
world activity with thousands of climatologists involved. They are talking with a unique and single voice about the scientific
diagnostic. During their last meeting in Paris in February 2007 they concluded unanimously that it is the increased quantity of
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which produces the global warming, and they designate man as the cause of it. Human
greed, by its exponential appetite of natural resources, is destroying the planet in pure wastes. At present rate of carbon
dioxide production, global warming will lead to a total catastrophe. Artists are getting involved in this survival cause and Al Gore
is leading a new crusade to save the planet. Huge free concerts are taking places worldwide and demonstrations are organized locally
Global warming exists and is man-made.

ALF KIRKEVÅG et al., (and TROND IVERSEN, JON EGILL KRISTJANSSON, ØYVIND SELAND and JENS BOLDINGH
DEBERNARD). Professors at the Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, 2/11/2008, “On the additivity of climate response
to anthropogenic aerosols and CO 2 , and the enhancement of future global warming by carbonaceous aerosols”.
There is now little doubt that the increased concentrations of man-made greenhouse gases have caused and will continue to
cause a significant global warming (Teng et al., 2006). Important uncertainty still exists concerning the size of the climate response
to external forcing, and inaccuracies associated with aerosols and clouds are important in this regard (Andreae et al., 2005; Randall et
al., 2007). Aerosols affect climate directly by reflecting and absorbing radiation, mainly in the shortwave. The indirect effects
of aerosols are caused by their altering the number and size of cloud droplets when activated as cloud condensation nuclei
(CCN), or by changing the properties of cold clouds, for example, when serving as ice nuclei.
Anthropogenic warming occurring

Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in
anthropogenic GHG concentrations. 7 It is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years
averaged over each continent (except Antarctica) (Figure SPM.4). {2.4} During the past 50 years, the sum of solar and volcanic
forcings would likely have produced cooling. Observed patterns of warming and their changes are simulated only by models that
include anthropogenic forcings. Difficulties remain in simulating and attributing observed temperature changes at smaller than
continental scales. {2.4}
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Models show severe atmospheric effects from human created substances.
The horizontal distributions of anthropogenic sulphate and black Carbon (BC) column burdens for years 11–50(Fig.1a) are
similar to those found in the off-line simulations in Iversen and Seland (2002, 2003), except for a southward shift in the tropics,
discussed in detail by Kristjansson et al. (2005). Large sulphate and BC column burdens are calculated over SE Asia, Europe,
North America and central Africa. The burdens are much higher in the Northern than in the Southern Hemisphere, see Table
2. The large BC-fraction of emissions from tropical biomass burning relative to NH fossil fuel combustion causes a smaller
inter- hemispheric difference for BC than for sulphate. Table 2 also shows that the direct radiative ‘forcing’ (DRF) due to
anthropogenic sulphate and BC (the difference TOT1 – NAT1, i.e. a quasi-forcing) is about −0.1 Wm −2 in the present response
simulations, very close to the DRF in Kirkevag and Iversen (2002). Due to the considerable computational costs associated with extra
calls to the cloud and radiative transfer code, similar (first and second) indirect radiative forcing values have not been explicitly
extracted. In Kristjansson (2002) (the basis for the climate response simulations in Kristjansson et al., 2005), the indirect radiative
forcing was estimated at −1.3 Wm −2 for the first effect, and −1.8 Wm −2 for the joint first and second indirect effect. Note that the
term forcing is here, as in Kirkevag and Iversen (2002) and Kristjansson (2002), used slightly differently than by IPCC-conventions:
values are calculated at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and at the surface. The DRF at a given vertical level is calculated as the
increment in net radiative flux due to changes in aerosol optical properties relative to an atmosphere that only contains a prescribed
background aerosol consisting of primary particles of natural origins, dominated by sea-salt and mineral dust. The DRF of natural
(from DMS, volcanoes, and wildfires) and anthropogenic (from fossil fuel and biomass burning) sulphate and BC are thus calculated
separately. When CO 2 concentrations are doubled while aerosol and precursor emissions are unchanged (TOT2 – TOT1, Fig.
1b), the simulated sulphate column burdens increase by about 2% in the Northern Hemisphere, but remain unchanged in the
Southern.
Anthropogenic warming- models prove

Anthropogenic warming over the last three decades has likely had a discernible influence at the global scale on observed changes in
many physical and biological systems. {2.4} Spatial agreement between regions of significant warming across the globe and locations
of significant observed changes in many systems consistent with warming is very unlikely to be due solely to natural variability.
Several modelling studies have linked some specific responses in physical and biological systems to anthropogenic warming. {2.4}
More complete attribution of observed natural system responses to anthropogenic warming is currently prevented by the short time
scales of many impact studies, greater natural climate variability at regional scales, contributions of nonclimate factors and limited
spatial coverage of studies. {2.4
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Anthropogenic Warming occuring- global models prove
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6.6. Climate of the 20th century More than fifteen centres in the world located in ten countries are
currently running fully coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models. Some of these have been
employed to simulate the climate of the last 150 years. An example compared with observed climate is
shown in figure 17; similar results have been obtained from many models. Note from figure 17 that the
inclusion of anthropogenic forcings provides a plausible explanation for a substantial part of the observed
temperature changes over the last century (especially for the latter part of the century), but that the best
match with observations occurs when both natural and anthropogenic factors are included. Assumed
changes in solar output and the comparative absence of volcanic activity assist in providing explanations
for the increase in global average temperature during the first part of the century. The shorter term
variability shown in the model of about a tenth of a degree Celsius arises from internal exchanges in the
model between different parts of the climate system, and is not dissimilar to that which appears in the
observed record. It has also been possible from comparisons of results from regional models with
observations to attribute some of the patterns of regional change to anthropogenic causes [63]. Allen et al
[64] have used the constraints provided by the observed climate on the simulations of models to quantify
the uncertainty in forecasts for the first part of the 21st century. Due to the slowing effect of the oceans on
climate change, the warming observed or modelled so far is less than would be expected if the climate
system were in equilibrium under the amount of radiative forcing due to the current increase in
greenhouse gases and aerosols. The increase in ocean heat content over the last 50 years has also been
simulated by models showing, when both natural and anthropogenic forcings are included, substantial
agreement with observations [65]. Since its formation in 1988 the IPCC has been much involved in the
debate as to whether the observed record provides evidence of the influence on the climate of the
increase in greenhouse gases. The evidence for both the detection and attribution 6 of climate change has
grown significantly stronger during this period. From studies of the global average temperature increase as
in figure 17 and also from studies of patterns of climate change over the globe, the carefully worded
conclusion reached in the IPCC 2001 Report [66] is the following: ‘In the light of new evidence and taking
into account the remaining uncertainties, most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely 7 to
have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations.
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Warming Anthropogenic – CO2

CO2 has a definite impact on global warming.
When CO 2 concentrations are doubled and aerosol emissions are kept constant at natural levels, we estimate a global
warming of 2.61 K and an increase in precipitation of 4.5%, compared to 2.58 K and 4.8% with present-day aerosol emissions.
Even though non-linear interactions between the effects of CO 2 doubling and anthropogenic aerosols are negligible globally, there
are positive cloud feedbacks for low level clouds regionally, especially over the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, where surface
air temperatures are too cold in the simulation with present- day aerosol emissions and CO 2 concentrations. When CO 2 is
doubled, CCM-Oslo yields a small increase in sulphate and BC burdens, globally averaged, despite the almost 5% increase in
precipitation. Most of that increase is in the form of convective precipitation, to which wet scavenging of aerosols is relatively
insensitive in the model. The simulated stratiform precipitation is almost unchanged in a global mean, but actually decreases in large
areas of major aerosol emissions. Together with regionally reduced precipitation over oceans in the subtropics, this leads to a
slight increase in the lifetime and burden of anthropogenic aerosols
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Now Key
Only 10 years remain to make changes to avoid global warming – only a
transition to alternative energies will solve
Connor, Scientific Reporter, 2007, Steve, Science editor for The Independent, “The Earth today stands in
imminent peril,”, The Independent,
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/the-earth-today-stands-inimminent-
peril-453708.html] ( Hansen is the director of Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies)
"Recent greenhouse gas emissions place the Earth perilously close to dramatic climate change that could run out of
control, with great dangers for humans and other creatures," the scientists say. Only intense efforts to curb man-made
emissions of carbon dioxide emissions and other greenhouse gases can keep the climate within or near the range of the past
one million years, they add. "Civilisation developed, and constructed extensive infrastructure, during a period of unusual
climate stability, the Holocene, now almost 12,000 years in duration. That period is about to end," the scientists warn.
Humanity cannot afford to burn the Earth's remaining underground reserves of fossil fuel. "To do so would guarantee
dramatic climate change, yielding a different planet from the one on which civilisation developed and for which extensive
physical infrastructure has been built," they say. Dr Hansen said we have about 10 years to put into effect the draconian
measures needed to curb CO2 emissions quickly enough to avert a dangerous rise in global temperature. Otherwise, the
extra heat could trigger the rapid melting of polar ice sheets, made far worse by the "albedo flip" - when the sunlight reflected
by white ice is suddenly absorbed as ice melts to become the dark surface of open water. \
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Consensus Goes Aff – IPCC

Global warming will lead to global catastrophe – 2000 scientists agree on IPCC
report
Dr. Joseph Romm, senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, author of "Hell and High Water: Global Warming -- the
Solution and the Politics.", served as acting assistant secretary of energy for energy efficiency and renewable energy in 1997, Ph.D. in
physics from MIT, 12-12-07, “Desperate times, desperate scientists”,
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2007/12/12/ipcc_report/index.html
Part of the answer is the most recent IPCC assessment report. For the first time in six years, more than 2,000 of the world's
top scientists reviewed and synthesized all of the scientific knowledge about global warming. The Fourth Assessment
Report makes clear that the accelerating emissions of human-generated heat-trapping gases has brought the planet
close to crossing a threshold that will lead to irreversible catastrophe. Yet like Cassandra's warning about the Trojan horse,
the IPCC report has fallen on deaf ears, especially those of conservative politicians, even as its findings are the most grave to
date.
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IPCC Qualified
IPCC’s overwhelmingly qualified—represents a global scientific consensus
John Houghton, Professor in atmospheric physics at the University of Oxford, former Chief Executive at the Met Office and
founder of the Hadley Centre 4 May 2005 “Global warming” INSTITUTE OF PHYSICS PUBLISHING REPORTS ON PROGRESS
IN PHYSICS 1343–1403
Three important factors have contributed to the authority and success of the IPCC’s reports [118]. The
first is the emphasis on delineating between what is known with reasonable certainty and what is
uncertain—differentiating so far as possible between degrees of uncertainty16 . The second is the
involvement in the writing and reviewing of the reports of as many as possible of the world’s climate
scientists, especially those leading the field. For the third assessment report in 2001, those taking part
had grown to 123 lead authors and 516 contributing authors, together with 21 review editors and 420
expert reviewers involved in the review process. The thorough debate by scientists during the assessment
process ensures that the scientific community is well informed on a broad front. No previous scientific
assessments on this or any other subject have involved so many scientists so widely distributed both as
regards their countries and their scientific disciplines.
Drastic action to reduce warming necessary now

Buried in one of the IPCC's summary reports from earlier this year is a stunning calculation, which shows growing
concern that these climate carbon cycle feedbacks could severely limit tolerable emissions. If the world wants to stabilize
at 450 ppm, IPCC models suggest that these feedbacks reduce the total acceptable emissions over this century from about 670
billion tons of carbon to only about 490 billion tons. That is, instead of needing annual emissions of carbon to average 6.7
billion tons a year this century, the feedbacks mean we need to average under 5 billion tons a year to avoid catastrophic
warming. But we're already at 8 billion tons and rising fast, some 3 percent per year. The time for dawdling has ended
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Author Indict – Michaels & McKitrick

Michaels and McKitrick are biased – they look for problems with IPCC reports
because they’re funded by energy interests
Christa S. Clapp, consultant on energy and environmental policy at ICF Consulting, November/December ’04, “Heat-Seeking
Missives,” http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=2721
Scientists from around the world constantly review and revise IPCC temperature findings to eliminate the data bias of
non-climate-related influences, such as artificially high temperature readings from densely populated urban hot spots. But
McKitrick and Michaels contend that such bias persists. Using a selective sample of the IPCC’s surface temperature
records from 1979 to 2000 (a short span for measuring global temperature trends), they adjust the temperatures to
reflect their own assumption that data from countries with lower gross domestic product and literacy rates are less
quality-assured. When compared to temperature data taken from satellites—which are notoriously undependable due to their
varying height and orbit—the authors’ adjusted data show stable temperature trends. McKitrick and Michaels thus conclude
that the IPCC’s results overstate the climate change crisis.
Of course, questioning assumptions is a healthy part of the scientific process. But by obsessing over one point of uncertainty,
McKitrick and Michaels ignore the vast amount of data that prove human activity’s acceleration of climate change. In
so doing, they obstruct answers to the vital question of how to mitigate climate change’s destabilizing effects—answers
that could prove expensive for some of their patrons.
Michaels, a climatologist at the University of Virginia, is a senior fellow at the CATO Institute and a visiting scientist at
the George C. Marshall Institute, both of which receive financial support from the energy industry. He also edits the
World Climate Report newsletter, published and funded by the energy industry. A 1995 Harper’s magazine article
claimed that Michaels received more than $115,000 from coal and energy interests between 1991 and 1994. McKitrick, an
economist at the University of Guelph in Ontario and coauthor with Christopher Essex of the 2002 book Taken by Storm: The
Troubled Science, Policy, and Politics of Global Warming, also publishes papers at the Marshall Institute.
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**WARMING BAD IMPACTS
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Warming Bad – Extinction

Global warming leads to extinction!
David Stein, Science editor for The Guardian, 2006, “Global Warming Xtra: Scientists warn about Antarctic melting,”
http://www.agoracosmopolitan.com/home/Frontpage/2008/07/14/02463.html
Global Warming continues to be approaches by governments as a "luxury" item, rather than a matter of basic human survival.
Humanity is being taken to its destruction by a greed-driven elite. These elites, which include 'Big Oil' and other related interests,
are intoxicated by "the high" of pursuing ego-driven power, in a comparable manner to drug addicts who pursue an elusive "high",
irrespective of the threat of pursuing that "high" poses to their own basic survival, and the security of others. Global Warming and
the pre-emptive war against Iraq are part of the same self-destructive prism of a political-military-industrial complex, which is on a
path of mass planetary destruction, backed by techniques of mass-deception."The scientific debate about human induced global
warming is over but policy makers - let alone the happily shopping general public - still seem to not understand the scope of the
impending tragedy. Global warming isn't just warmer temperatures, heat waves, melting ice and threatened polar bears. Scientific
understanding increasingly points to runaway global warming leading to human extinction", reported Bill Henderson in
CrossCurrents. If strict global environmental security measures are not immediately put in place to keep further emissions
of greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere we are looking at the death of billions, the end of civilization as we know it and
in all probability the end of humankind's several million year old existence, along with the extinction of most flora and
fauna beloved to man in the world we share.
Global warming causes extinction due to methane-filled clathrates

David Stein, Science editor for The Guardian, 2006, “Global Warming Xtra: Scientists warn about Antarctic melting,”
http://www.agoracosmopolitan.com/home/Frontpage/2008/07/14/02463.html
Ticking Time Bomb by John Atcheson , a geologist writing in the Baltimore Sun, is the best and almost only mainstream media
explanation of runaway global warming and how close we are to extinction. "There are enormous quantities of naturally occurring
greenhouse gasses trapped in ice-like structures in the cold northern muds and at the bottom of the seas. These ices, called clathrates,
contain 3,000 times as much methane as is in the atmosphere. Methane is more than 20 times as strong a greenhouse gas as carbon
dioxide."
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Warming Bad – Extinction

Warming forms a high way to extinction, slaughtering billions through
starvation, flooding and disease
Neo Hui Min, Straits Times Europe Bureau staff writer, April 7th 2007 “Billions face dire risk from global warming, says experts”
http://www.wildsingapore.com/news/20070304/070406-14.htm#st
BRUSSELS - TOP climate scientists issued their bleakest assessment yet on global warming yesterday, with a warning that
billions of people could go thirsty as water supplies dry up and millions more may starve as farmlands become deserts. Poor
tropical countries that are least to blame for causing the problem will be worst hit, said the report. Small island states, Asia's big
river deltas, the Arctic, and sub- Saharan Africa are also at risk. Global warming could also rapidly thaw Himalayan glaciers that
feed rivers from India to China, and bring heat waves to Europe and North America. The dire warnings came from the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The final text of a 21-page Summary for Policymakers was agreed on after
an all-night session marked by serious disputes. Scientists from more than 100 countries made up the panel. Their report forms the
second of a four-part climate assessment, with the final section to be released early next month in Bangkok. Its findings are
approved unanimously by governments and will guide policy on issues such as extending the United Nation's Kyoto Protocol, the
main plan for capping greenhouse gas emissions, beyond 2012. The grim 1,400-page report issued yesterday said change, widely
blamed on human emissions of greenhouse gases, was already under way in nature. The IPCC noted that damage to the earth's
weather systems was changing rainfall patterns, punching up the power of storms and boosting the risk of drought, flooding and
stress on water supplies. Some scientists even called the degree-by-degree projection a 'highway to extinction'. Add 1 deg C to the
earth's average temperatures and between 400 million and 1.7 billion more people cannot get enough water. Add another 1.8 deg C
and as many as two billion people could be without water, and about 20 per cent to 30 per cent of the world's species face
extinction. More people will also start dying because of malnutrition, disease, heat waves, floods and droughts. This could happen
as early as 2050. 'Changes in climate are now affecting physical and biological systems on every continent,' said the report.
University of Michigan ecologist Rosina Bierbaum, former head of the United States' IPCC delegation, said: 'It is clear that a
number of species are going to be lost.' Mr Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the IPCC, said: 'It's the poorest of the poor in the
world, and this includes poor people even in prosperous societies, who are going to be the worst hit. 'This does become a global
responsibility in my view.' Still, some scientists accused governments of watering down the forecasts. They said China, Russia and
Saudi Arabia had raised most objections overnight, seeking to tone down some findings. Other participants also said the US, which
pulled out of the Kyoto Protocol in 2001 saying it was too costly, had toned down some passages. Dr Pramod Kumar Aggarwal,
one of the authors of the report, told The Straits Times that temperature increases could lead to crop failure and rising prices, with
dire consequences for the poor. 'In Asia, you are talking about millions or billions of people,' he said.
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Warming Bad – African Instability Module

Climate change causes African instability—exasperates underlying conditions
CNA, a non-profit research organization that operates the Center for Naval Analyses and the Institute for Public Research. 2007
“National Security and the threat of Climate Change”
http://securityandclimate.cna.org/
Africa is increasingly crucial in the ongoing battle against civil strife, genocide, and terrorism. Numerous African countries and
regions already suffer from varying degrees of famine and civil strife. Darfur, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia, Angola, Nigeria,
Cameroon, Western Sahara—all have been hit hard by tensions that can be traced in part to environmental causes. Struggles that
appear to be tribal, sectarian, or nationalist in nature are often triggered by reduced water supplies or reductions in agricultural
productivity. The challenges Africa will face as a result of climate change may be massive, and could present serious threats to
even the most stable of governments. Many African nations can best be described as failed states, and many African regions are
largely ungoverned by civil institutions. When the conditions for failed states increase—as they most likely will over the coming
decades—the chaos that results can be an incubator of civil strife, genocide, and the growth of terrorism.
WAR IN AFRICA WILL RESULT IN INTERVENTION AND NUCLEAR WAR

DEUTSCH 2002 (Jeffrey, Political Risk Consultant and Ph.D in Economics, The Rabid Tiger Newsletter, Vol 2, No 9, Nov 18,
http://list.webengr.com/pipermail/picoipo/2002-November/000208.html)
The Rabid Tiger Project believes that a nuclear war is most likely to start in Africa. Civil wars in the Congo (the country formerly
known as Zaire), Rwanda, Somalia and Sierra Leone, and domestic instability in Zimbabwe, Sudan and other countries, as well as
occasional brushfire and other wars (thanks in part to "national" borders that cut across tribal ones) turn into a really nasty stew. We've
got all too many rabid tigers and potential rabid tigers, who are willing to push the button rather than risk being seen as wishy-washy
in the face of a mortal threat and overthrown. Geopolitically speaking, Africa is open range. Very few countries in Africa are beholden
to any particular power. South Africa is a major exception in this respect - not to mention in that she also probably already has the
Bomb. Thus, outside powers can more easily find client states there than, say, in Europe where the political lines have long since been
drawn, or Asia where many of the countries (China, India, Japan) are powers unto themselves and don't need any "help," thank you.
Thus, an African war can attract outside involvement very quickly. Of course, a proxy war alone may not induce the Great Powers to
fight each other. But an African nuclear strike can ignite a much broader conflagration, if the other powers are interested in a fight.
Certainly, such a strike would in the first place have been facilitated by outside help - financial, scientific, engineering, etc. Africa is
an ocean of troubled waters, and some people love to go fishing.
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Warming Bad – Ext. African Instability

Warming leads to instability in Africa and threatens national security
Arthur Bright, staff writer for the Christian Science Monitor, 6-27-08, “New report highlights ties between global warming and US
security,” http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0628/p99s01-duts.html
The Washington Post writes that Thomas Fingar, chairman of the National Intelligence Council, delivered the report Wednesday to
a joint meeting of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence and the House Select Committee on Energy
Independence. He warned that global warming will reduce food supplies in Africa, which he predicted would in turn spark
violence in the region. "Without food aid, the region will likely face higher levels of instability, particularly violent ethnic clashes
over land ownership," probably creating "extensive and novel operational requirements," for the fledgling U.S. Africa Command,
according to a National Intelligence Assessment on the security implications of climate change by the National Intelligence
Council. ... Overall, the assessment found that while the United States "is better equipped than most nations to deal with climate
change," the impact on other countries has the "potential to seriously affect U.S. national security interests." Humanitarian
disasters, economic migration, food and water shortages -- all caused by climate change -- will pressure other countries to respond.
Such demands "may significantly tax U.S. military transportation and support force structures, resulting in a strained readiness
posture," the assessment found. Fingar said Africa is most vulnerable "because of multiple environmental, economic, political and
social stresses." While no country will avoid climate change, the report said, "most of the struggling and poor states that will suffer
adverse impacts to their potential and economic security," are in the Middle East, central and southeast Asia, and sub-Saharan
Africa.
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Gabrielle & TJ
Warming Bad – Arctic Conflict Module

Warming results in Russian-US conflict- access to resources causes
exploitation
Warming seas, as a consequence of climate change, are also making it possible to exploit previously inaccessible energy resources
under the polar ice caps, threatening what has been characterised as a new ‘gold rush’, with claimant states jostling for the rights to
exploit potentially rich deposits of oil, gas and minerals on the seabed. The potential for conflict was dramatically brought home by
Russia’s successful and highly publicised planting of its national flag on the Arctic seabed on 2 August 2007 by two small
submersibles, an act that was lauded as ‘heroic’ by Moscow but condemned by other claimants, notably Canada, which compared the
Russian action to a fifteenth-century land grab.26 Many climate scientists believe that latesummer Arctic ice could disappear entirely
by 2060, which would make the exploitation of Arctic resources technically feasible and therefore more likely, unless the five
claimant states – Russia, the United States, Canada, Denmark and Norway – can reach an accommodation.27
Arctic conflict goes nuclear

Prof. Rob Huebert, Department of Political Science/Strategic Studies Program, University of Calgary 1998
http://www.carc.org/calgary/a4.htm
Likewise, there is evidence that the Russians intend to continue developing more advanced nuclear ballistic missile submarines. The
keel of the fourth-generation strategic missile submarine, the Yuri Dolgoruky (Borei class), was laid on November 2, 1996. (3) This
new class of submarines is to replace the Russian Typhoon and Delta classes and is expected to be operational by 2002-2003. It is
estimated that cost of each of these submarines will exceed $1 billion (US). This clearly illustrates the seriousness of the Russian's
perceived military threat. Given the fact that Murmansk is one of three remaining SSBN ports, the construction of these vessels
guarantees that the Arctic will remain an area of continued military activity for Russia, and therefore the United States, well into the
21st century. The potential for an accidental nuclear war remains as a threat to the Arctic regions.
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Warming Bad – Ext. Arctic Conflict

Arctic Conflicts Escalate
Security Innovator, 8/23/07 http://securityinnovator.com/index.php?articleID=12387§ionID=43
Huebert explained that he’d “like to be positive that it won’t go that bad,” but noted “all you need is a couple of bad turns and things
can go bad really quickly” in the Arctic, as experienced during the Cold War. But he noted, “We still have time for a collaborative
approach to all things Arctic, we can turn around and agree that all the disputed borders won’t escalate, and that any of the resource
issues will be dealt with by joint management regimes. Hell, if the Indonesians and the Australians can do it, I don’t see why we
can’t.” But Huebert cautioned that “Arctic issues have a habit of catching people unexpectedly, though they shouldn’t.” He recalled
how the Polar Sea incident “escalated really quickly and could have been handled quite differently, but it colored relations between
Canada and the U.S. for a long time.” And he added that “little issues like Hans Island can hurt relations between Canada and
Denmark.” Even an overly aggressive resource exploration company might come along and start drilling in a disputed zone, and if so,
things “will get real ugly real fast,” as “these things have a bad habit of getting nasty real fast without people really anticipating, and at
that point, that’s where positions start to harden.” Huebert calls upon the Arctic rim states to come together and address these issues
now: “Let’s get the means of resolving” Arctic disputes developed, and a “method for handling it. Let’s create an understanding of the
border issues, understand the environmental issues we both know are important, we all know we could do that right now. There’s no
reason why we couldn’t start tomorrow.”
40
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Warming Bad – Asia Module

Climate change will devastate Asia—killing billions through disease, drought,
flooding and starvation
Channel News Asia 6 Apr 07 “Asia faces floods, drought, disease: UN climate report”
http://www.wildsingapore.com/news/20070304/070406-14.htm#st
BRUSSELS - Asia faces a heightened risk of flooding, severe water shortages, infectious disease and hunger from global warming
this century, the UN's top climate panel said on Friday. The region is confronted by a 90-percent likelihood that more than a billion of
its people will be "adversely affected" by the impacts of global warming by the 2050s, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) said. Its estimates, in a major report unveiled in Brussels, say the magnitude of climate- change effects will vary
according to the size of the world's population, energy use and the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which determines the
rise in global temperature. But under any scenario, the world's most populous region will be badly hit. Here are the major findings: --
120 million to 1.2 billion people in Asia will experience increased water stress by 2020, and 185 to 981 million by 2050. -- Cereal
yields in South Asia could drop in some areas by up to 30 percent by 2050. -- Even modest rises in sea levels will cause flooding and
economic disruption in densely-populated mega-deltas, such as the mouths of the Yangtze in China, the Red River in China and
Vietnam, and the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta in low-lying Bangladesh. -- Cholera and malaria could increase, thanks to flooding and a
wider habitat range for mosquitoes. -- In the Himalayas, glaciers less than four kilometres (2.5 miles) long will disappear entirely if
average global temperatures rise by 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 Fahrenheit). This will initially cause increased flooding and mudslides
followed by an eventual decrease in flow in rivers that are glacier-fed. -- Per capita water availability in India will drop from around
1,900 cubic metres (66, 500 cubic feet) currently to 1,000 cu. metres (35,000 cu. ft.) by 2025.
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Gabrielle & TJ
Warming Bad – Berents Sea Module

Global warming dramatically alters Barents Sea life and hurts key species.
Arne Eide and Knut Heen, professors at the Norwegian College of Fishery Science, 6/14/2002, Economic impacts of global
warming A study of the fishing industry in North Norway
Most global circulation models (GCMs) show an increase of perhaps 5–10 °C in air temperature in the northern regions
including the Barents Sea over the next 100 years. Based on these it is realistic to assume an increase in mean sea temperature
of 2 °C over some decades. Year-to-year variability is assumed to be as present. 6.2.1. Consequences 1. Growth rate of cod and
herring increases by 20%. We assume that the amount of primary and secondary production increases sufficiently to allow increased
growth. 2. Increased recruitment of cod and herring. Number of recruits at age 3 for cod is increased from a historic average of just
above 600–800 millions. The increase of the herring recruitment will be up to 30%. 6.3. Scenario 2 The average inflow to the
Barents Sea of warm Atlantic water masses is significantly reduced leading to an average reduction in sea temperature of 3 °C,
while standard deviation is assumed to remain constant. This might happen either as a result of a general reduction in the flow of the
Gulf Stream or in the branch of it entering the Barents Sea. Even with a reduction of 3 °C the summer temperatures in the western
Barents Sea will be higher than in other oceans at similar latitudes. 6.3.1. Consequences Such a dramatic change in temperature
may completely alter the ecosystem including the species composition. In this case, we assume that cod, capelin and herring, at
least in an intermediate period, will still be the main species, but growth, recruitment and distribution will be altered: 1.
Growth rate of cod and herring will be reduced by 25%. 2. Recruitment to the cod and herring stocks will be reduced. Assume
average number of 3-year old cod will be reduced from 600 to 400 millions. Similarly the herring recruitment will be reduced to one-
third.
The Barents Sea is key to regional economic and social stability, as well as
world food supplies
Arne Eide and Knut Heen, professors at the Norwegian College of Fishery Science, 6/14/2002, Economic impacts of global
warming A study of the fishing industry in North Norway
The Barents Sea (Fig. 1) contains some of the most abundant fish resources in the world. Plankton forms the basis of the
biological production system, with sea mammals at the top of the biological hierarchy, preying both on cod, pelagic fish and
shrimp, while cod prey on pelagic fish and shrimp. Our focus is on that part of the ecosystem defined by the cod and pelagic fish
stocks and on the vessel groups and processing sector associated with those species: together they form the most important
components of the Barents Sea ecosystem and regional economy
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Gabrielle & TJ
Warming Bad – Biodiversity Module

Warming destroys biodiversity- harms biodiversity hotspots and ecosystems
Risks to unique and threatened systems. There is new and stronger evidence of observed impacts of climate change on unique and
vulnerable systems (such as polar and high mountain communities and ecosystems), with increasing levels of adverse impacts as
temperatures increase further. An increasing risk of species extinction and coral reef damage is projected with higher confidence than
in the TAR as warming proceeds. There is medium confidence that approximately 20 to 30% of plant and animal species assessed so
far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average temperature exceed 1.5 to 2.5°C over 1980-1999 levels.
Confidence has increased that a 1 to 2°C increase in global mean temperature above 1990 levels (about 1.5 to 2.5°C above
preindustrial) poses significant risks to many unique and threatened systems including many biodiversity hotspots. Corals are
vulnerable to thermal stress and have low adaptive capacity. Increases in sea surface temperature of about 1 to 3°C are projected to
result in more frequent coral bleaching events and widespread mortality, unless there is thermal adaptation or acclimatisation by
corals. Increasing vulnerability of indigenous communities in the Arctic and small island communities to warming is projected.
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Gabrielle & TJ
Warming Bad – Biodiversity Module

Loss of ecosystems and species risks planetary extinction – each species loss
could be one to cause extinction
Diner, 94 (Judge Advocate’s General’s Corps of US Army, David N., Military Law Review, Winter, 143 Mil. L. Rev. 161, Lexis)
No species has ever dominated its fellow species as man has. In most cases, people have assumed the God-like power of life and death
-- extinction or survival -- over the plants and animals of the world. For most of history, mankind pursued this domination with a
single-minded determination to master the world, tame the wilderness, and exploit nature for the maximum benefit of the human race.
n67 In past mass extinction episodes, as many as ninety percent of the existing species perished, and yet the world moved forward,
and new species replaced the old. So why should the world be concerned now? The prime reason is the world's survival. Like all
animal life, humans live off of other species. At some point, the number of species could decline to the point at which the ecosystem
fails, and then humans also would become extinct. No one knows how many [*171] species the world needs to support human life,
and to find out -- by allowing certain species to become extinct -- would not be sound policy. In addition to food, species offer many
direct and indirect benefits to mankind. n68 2. Ecological Value. -- Ecological value is the value that species have in maintaining the
environment. Pest, n69 erosion, and flood control are prime benefits certain species provide to man. Plants and animals also provide
additional ecological services -- pollution control, n70 oxygen production, sewage treatment, and biodegradation. n71 3. Scientific and
Utilitarian Value. -- Scientific value is the use of species for research into the physical processes of the world. n72 Without plants and
animals, a large portion of basic scientific research would be impossible. Utilitarian value is the direct utility humans draw from plants
and animals. n73 Only a fraction of the [*172] earth's species have been examined, and mankind may someday desperately need the
species that it is exterminating today. To accept that the snail darter, harelip sucker, or Dismal Swamp southeastern shrew n74 could
save mankind may be difficult for some. Many, if not most, species are useless to man in a direct utilitarian sense. Nonetheless, they
may be critical in an indirect role, because their extirpations could affect a directly useful species negatively. In a closely
interconnected ecosystem, the loss of a species affects other species dependent on it. n75 Moreover, as the number of species decline,
the effect of each new extinction on the remaining species increases dramatically. n76 4. Biological Diversity. -- The main premise of
species preservation is that diversity is better than simplicity. n77 As the current mass extinction has progressed, the world's biological
diversity generally has decreased. This trend occurs within ecosystems by reducing the number of species, and within species by
reducing the number of individuals. Both trends carry serious future implications. Biologically diverse ecosystems are characterized
by a large number of specialist species, filling narrow ecological niches. These ecosystems inherently are more stable than less
diverse systems. "The more complex the ecosystem, the more successfully it can resist a stress. . . . [l]ike a net, in which each knot is
connected to others by several strands, such a fabric can resist collapse better than a simple, unbranched circle of threads -- which if
cut anywhere breaks down as a whole." n79 By causing widespread extinctions, humans have artificially simplified many ecosystems.
As biologic simplicity increases, so does the risk of ecosystem failure. The spreading Sahara Desert in Africa, and the dustbowl
conditions of the 1930s in the United States are relatively mild examples of what might be expected if this trend continues.
Theoretically, each new animal or plant extinction, with all its dimly perceived and intertwined affects, could cause total
ecosystem collapse and human extinction. Each new extinction increases the risk of disaster. Like a mechanic removing, one by
one, the rivets from an aircraft's wings, [hu]mankind may be edging closer to the abyss.
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Warming Bad – Ext. Biodiversity

Fast warming causes widespread species loss
Anthropogenic warming could lead to some impacts that are abrupt or irreversible, depending upon the rate and magnitude of the
climate change. {3.4} Partial loss of ice sheets on polar land could imply metres of sea level rise, major changes in coastlines and
inundation of low-lying areas, with greatest effects in river deltas and low-lying islands. Such changes are projected to occur over
millennial time scales, but more rapid sea level rise on century time scales cannot be excluded. {3.4} Climate change is likely to lead
to some irreversible impacts. There is medium confidence that approximately 20 to 30% of species assessed so far are likely to be at
increased risk of extinction if increases in global average warming exceed 1.5 to 2.5°C (relative to 1980-1999). As global average
temperature increase exceeds about 3.5°C, model projections suggest significant extinctions (40 to 70% of species assessed) around
the globe. {3.4}
Warming devastates ecosystems- extreme heat, cold, drought, and rain

Some systems, sectors and regions are likely to be especially affected by climate change.12 {3.3.3} Systems and sectors: {3.3.3} _
particular ecosystems: - terrestrial: tundra, boreal forest and mountain regions because of sensitivity to warming; mediterranean-type
ecosystems because of reduction in rainfall; and tropical rainforests where precipitation declines - coastal: mangroves and salt
marshes, due to multiple stresses - marine: coral reefs due to multiple stresses; the sea ice biome because of sensitivity to warming _
water resources in some dry regions at mid-latitudes13 and in the dry tropics, due to changes in rainfall and evapotranspiration, and in
areas dependent on snow and ice melt _ agriculture in low latitudes, due to reduced water availability _ low-lying coastal systems, due
to threat of sea level rise and increased risk from extreme weather events _ human health in populations with low adaptive capacity.
Regions: {3.3.3} _ the Arctic, because of the impacts of high rates of projected warming on natural systems and human communities _
Africa, because of low adaptive capacity and projected climate change impacts _ small islands, where there is high exposure of
population and infrastructure to projected climate change impacts _ Asian and African megadeltas, due to large populations and high
exposure to sea level rise, storm surges and river flooding. Within other areas, even those with high incomes, some people (such as the
poor, young children and the elderly) can be particularly at risk, and also some areas and some activities. {3.3.3}
Warming causes extinction, ecosystem destruction, and huge sea level rising
AP, 6-24-08, “We’re toast if we don’t stop global warming” http://www.smh.com.au/news/global-warming/last-chance-or-were-
toast/2008/06/24/1214073221343.html
James Hansen told US Congress today that the world has long passed the "dangerous level" for greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
and needs to get back to 1988 levels. He said Earth's atmosphere can stay this loaded with man-made carbon dioxide only for a couple
more decades without changes such as mass extinction, ecosystem collapse and dramatic sea level rises. "We're toast if we don't get on
a very different path," Hansen, director of the Goddard Institute of Space Sciences, who is sometimes called the godfather of global
warming science, told The Associated Press. "This is the last chance."
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Warming hurts species, raises sea levels, and threatens millions of lives
Doug Struck, staff writer for The Boston Globe, 11-17-07, “In key report, firm action urged on climate change”
http://www.boston.com/news/science/articles/2007/11/17/in_key_report_firm_action_urged_on_climate_change/
WASHINGTON - Global warming is destroying species, raising sea levels, and threatening millions of poor people, the United
Nations' top scientific panel will say in a report today that UN officials hope will help mobilize the world to taking tougher actions on
climate change. The scientists said only firm action, including putting a price on carbon dioxide emissions, will avoid more
catastrophic events. Those actions will take a small part of the world's economic growth and will be substantially less than the costs of
doing nothing, the report will say. The report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will be key ammunition as
world leaders meet in Bali next month to try to draft a global plan to deal with Earth's rising temperatures after the Kyoto Protocol
expires in 2012. A near-final draft, approved yesterday by representatives of more than 140 governments meeting in Valencia, Spain,
said global warming is "unequivocal" and said human actions are heading toward "abrupt or irreversible climate changes and
impacts."
Global warming will lead to species loss, culminating in extinction

Ecobridge, 10-5-06, “Evidence of Global Warming” http://www.ecobridge.org/content/g_tht.htm
The first recorded mass extinction of species took place 440 million years ago, the Ordovician extinction and the second deadliest of
the five great periods of extinction. During that era, fossil records show an abrupt die-off of two-thirds of the Earth’s species. During
the late Devonian period, about 375 million years ago, another mass extinction occurred that resulted in most of the planet’s fish
species dying. About 250 million years ago the third, and most severe mass extinction took place, the Permian-Triassic extinction or
"the Great Dying." This die-off resulted in loss of almost all marine life and most of the land species.The fourth mass extinction took
place about 205 million years ago at the end of the Triassic Period. The fifth mass extinction took place about 65 million years ago.
The majestic era of the dinosaurs ended when about half of all species died off, having existed 165 million years. And now a sixth
mass extinction is underway. In January, 2003 a study by lead author, biologist Terry Root, and 5 colleagues at Stanford's Institute
for International Studies involved reviewing scientific studies pertaining to 1,400 plant and animal species. The Stanford researchers
determined that about 80% of those species have undergone range or behavioral changes likely caused by climate change. "If we've
had so much change with just 1 degree, think of how much we will have with 10 degrees," Terry Root said, referring to the estimate
by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of a 3 to 10 degree Fahrenheit increase by the end of the century. "In my opinion,
we're sitting at the edge of a mass extinction." In a study published in the journal Nature, January 8, 2004, its authors found that 15
to 37% of all species in the study regions could become extinct from expected temperature increases by 2050.(126) “If the projections
can be extrapolated globally, and to other groups of land animals and plants, our analyses suggest that well over a million species
could be threatened with extinction as a result of climate change,” said lead author Chris Thomas of the University of Leeds, England.
“This study makes clear that climate change is the biggest new extinction threat,” says co-author Lee Hannah. “The combination of
increasing habitat loss and climate change together is particularly worrying.
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Warming destroys wetlands– key to global biodiversity
John Houghton, cochair of the IPCC, Professor in atmospheric physics at the University of Oxford, former Chief Executive at the
Met Office and founder of the Hadley Centre 4 May 2005 “Global warming” INSTITUTE OF PHYSICS PUBLISHING REPORTS
ON PROGRESS IN PHYSICS 1343–1403
It is not only in places where there is dense population that there will be adverse effects. The world’s wetlands and mangrove swamps
currently occupy an area of about a million square kilometres (the figure is not known very precisely), equal approximately to twice
the area of France. They contain much biodiversity and their biological productivity equals or exceeds that of any other natural or
agricultural system. Over two-thirds of the fish caught for human consumption, as well as many birds and animals, depend on coastal
marshes and swamps for part of their life cycles, so they are vital to the total world ecology. These areas could not adjust to the rapid
rate of sea-level rise that is likely and in many cases would be unable to extend inland. Net loss of wetland area will therefore occur
[97]
Warming increases oceanic acidity which leads to species extinction

Dr. Ken Caldeira, Carnegie Institution, 6-30-05, “Oceans turning to acid from rise in CO2”,
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2005-06/ci-ott063005.php
Stanford, CA. A report issued by the Royal Society in the U.K. sounds the alarm about the world's oceans. "If CO2 from human
activities continues to rise, the oceans will become so acidic by 2100 it could threaten marine life in ways we can't anticipate,"
commented Dr. Ken Caldeira, co-author of the report and a newly appointed staff scientist at the Carnegie Institution's Department of
Global Ecology in Stanford, California.* The report on ocean acidification was released today by the Royal Society. See
http://www.royalsoc.ac.uk/ Many scientists view the world's oceans as an important sink for capturing the human-induced
greenhouse gas CO2 and slowing global warming. Marine plants soak up CO2 as they breathe it in and convert it to food during
photosynthesis. Organisms also use it to make their skeletons and shells, which eventually form sediments. With the explosion of
fossil-fuel burning over the past 200 years, it has been estimated that more than a third of the human-originated greenhouse gas has
been absorbed by the oceans. While marine organisms need CO2 to survive, work by Caldeira and colleagues shows that too much
CO2 in the ocean could lead to ecological disruption and extinctions in the marine environment. When CO2 gas dissolves into
the ocean it produces carbonic acid, which is corrosive to shells of marine organisms and can interfere with the oxygen supply.
If current trends continue, the scientists believe the acidic water could interrupt the process of shell and coral formation and adversely
affect other organisms dependent upon corals and shellfish. The acidity could also negatively impact other calcifying organisms,
such as phytoplankton and zooplankton, some of the most important players at the base of the planet's food chain. "We can
predict the magnitude of the acidification based on the evidence that has been collected from the ocean's surface, the geological and
historical record, ocean circulation models, and what's known about ocean chemistry," continued Caldeira. "What we can't predict is
just what acidic oceans mean to ocean ecology and to Earth's climate. International and governmental bodies must focus on this
area before it's too late."
47
Gabrielle & TJ
Warming Bad – Blackouts Module

Warming causes blackouts
Increasing Power Outages or Rolling Blackouts More intense heat waves will have a further impact. More severe heat waves will
bring heavy use of air-conditioning, increasing the probability of more blackouts, as power grids are strained beyond the limit. The
combination of increasing severity of heat waves, together with a trend of electricity supply not keeping pace with demand, ultimately
will lead to increases in blackouts. In a CNN.com article on July 1, 2000, 'Heat waves likely to bring more rolling blackouts', it was
reported that U.S. consumption of electricity has risen 35% during the past decade, while newly generated electric power has risen by
only 18%. "During the last several summers (as of July, 2000) utilities in some parts of the country have been stretched to the limit,"
says Energy Secretary Bill Richardson. (68) A study by the New York think tank, Allied Business Intelligence (ABI), says that in the
next ten years, energy sources will be insufficient to meet demand throughout the U.S., except for Middle America. With a robust
economy spurring the building industry, especially plans currently anticipating the building of half a million new commercial
buildings annually, demand for energy is swiftly outpacing supply. According to ABI, 150 gigawatts (150 billion watts) will be
needed by 2007 in the U.S. Plans call for meeting only half of that demand, says ABI. (66) The Alliance to Save Energy, a coalition
of business, environmental, consumer and government leaders, says that a continuing trend of higher temperatures and more severe
heat waves will have a role in producing more blackouts in the coming years. [71] On June 24, 2003 Italian utilities ordered power
cuts for the first time since 1981, as a heat wave pushed the national power grid close to collapse. Further blackouts were planned into
July. The blackouts resulted from a nationwide heavy demand in use of air conditioners and fans, affecting 6 million people. The
unrelenting heat and an accompanying drought have disrupted Italian electricity production, as diminished water power has impacted
hydroelectric plants. Demand for electricity set a new summer Italian record of 52,000 megawatts.
Blackouts permanently cripple the US econmy

United Press International, 8/18/03
In the end, Bush would learn it was the largest electric blackout ever. Though apparently not caused by terrorism, in the span of just
nine seconds 50 million people in New York City and state, New England, Detroit, Cleveland, Ottawa and Toronto would lose electric
power, placing them in the hot, often waterless darkness. Thousands would have to walk home; thousands would be trapped
underground in subways, suspended in inoperable elevators, or at schools and theaters. But very quickly in the past two days Bush
and his energy team found that some very tricky issues were posed by the blackout that will not be easily answered. The crisis over
power in the United States may not be temporarily as devastating as Baghdad's, but in the long run the very nature of U.S.
economic and social survival may rely upon correcting the difficulties.
US economic decline causes nuclear war

- Cook 07 (Richard C. Cook, 6/14/07, Writer, Consultant, and Retired Federal Analyst - U.S. Treasury Department, "It's Official:
The Crash of the U.S. Economy has begun," http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=5964)
Times of economic crisis produce international tension and politicians tend to go to war rather than face the economic music.
The classic example is the worldwide depression of the 1930s leading to World War II. Conditions in the coming years could be
as bad as they were then. We could have a really big war if the U.S. decides once and for all to haul off and let China, or
whomever, have it in the chops. If they don’t want our dollars or our debt any more, how about a few nukes?
48
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Warming Bad – Coral

Warming kills coral reefs which are key to biodiversity and the economy
Alok Jha, science correspondent for The Guardian, 1-24-08, Hurricanes and global warming devastate Caribbean coral reefs,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/jan/24/climatechange
Warmer seas and a record hurricane season in 2005 have devastated more than half of the coral reefs in the Caribbean, according to
scientists. In a report published yesterday, the World Conservation Union (IUCN) warned that this severe damage to reefs would
probably become a regular event given current predictions of rising global temperatures due to climate change. According to the
report, 2005 was the hottest year on average since records began and had the most hurricanes ever recorded in a season. Large
hotspots in the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico powered strong tropical hurricanes such as Katrina, which developed into the most
devastating storm ever to hit the US. In addition to the well-documented human cost, the storms damaged coral by increasing the
physical strength of waves and covering the coast in muddy run-off water from the land. The higher sea temperature also caused
bleaching, in which the coral lose the symbiotic algae they need to survive. The reefs then lose their colour and become more
susceptible to death from starvation or disease. Impacts Carl Gustaf Lundin, head of the IUCN's global marine programme, said:
"Sadly for coral reefs, it's highly likely extreme warming will happen again. When it does, the impacts will be even more severe. If we
don't do something about climate change, the reefs won't be with us for much longer." Some of the worst-hit regions of the Caribbean,
which contains more than 10% of the world's coral reefs, included the area from Florida through to the French West Indies and the
Cayman Islands. In August 2005 severe bleaching affected between 50% and 95% of coral colonies and killed more than half, mostly
in the Lesser Antilles. The IUCN report highlights pressures on coral reefs in addition to those of overfishing and pollution identified
in recent years. A recent study found that reefs near large human populations suffered the most damage. Coral reefs are an important
part of the marine ecosystem, supporting an estimated 25% of all marine life including more than 4,000 species of fish. They provide
spawning, nursery, refuge and feeding areas for a wide variety of other creatures such as lobsters, crabs, starfish and sea turtles. Reefs
also play a crucial role as natural breakwaters, protecting coastlines from storms. "It's quite clear that the structure and their function
as they are right now in the Caribbean is quite severely impeded," said Lundin. "Over the next few decades we will see a large
reduction in the number of reef areas." Reefs also boost the local economy - in the Caribbean coral reefs provide more than $4bn
(£2bn) a year from fisheries, scuba-diving tourism and shoreline protection. According to an analysis by the World Resources
Institute: Reefs at Risk, coral loss in the region could cost the local economy up to $420m every year.
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CO2 acidifies oceans, killing coral
Robert W. Buddemeier, KANSAS GEOLOGICAL SURVEY, Joan A. Kleypas, NATIONAL CENTER FOR
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH, and Richard B. Aronson, DAUPHIN ISLAND SEALAB, February 2004
“Coral reefs Potential Contributions of Climate Change to Stresses on Coral Reef Ecosystems & Global climate change” Published by
the Pew Center for Climate Change
• Increases in ocean temperatures associated with global climate change will increase the number of coral bleaching episodes. High
water temperatures stress corals leading to “bleaching” — the expulsion of colorful, symbiotic algae that corals need for survival,
growth, and reproduction. While coral species have some capacity to recover from bleaching events, this ability is diminished with
greater frequency or severity of bleaching. As a result, climate change is likely to reduce local and regional coral biodiversity, as
sensitive species are eliminated. • Increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) from fossil fuel combustion will
drive changes in surface ocean chemistry. The higher the concentration of CO2in the atmosphere, the greater the amount of
CO2dissolved in the surface ocean. Higher dissolved CO2increases ocean acidity and lowers the concentration of carbonate which
corals and other marine organisms use, in the form of calcium carbonate, to build their skeletons. Thus, continued growth in human
emissions of CO2will further limit the ability of corals to grow and recover from bleaching events or other forms of stress. • The
effects of global climate change will combine with more localized stresses to further degrade coral reef ecosystems. Although climate
change itself will adversely affect coral reefs, it will also increase the susceptibility of reef communities to degradation and loss
resulting from natural climate variability such as El Niño events as well as disease, over-fishing, disruption of food webs, and
pollution from neighboring human communities.
C02 emissions destroy coral causes ocean acidification- harming coral

Ocean acidification The uptake of anthropogenic carbon since 1750 has led to the ocean becoming more acidic with an average
decrease in pH of 0.1 units. Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations lead to further acidification. Projections based on SRES
scenarios give a reduction in average global surface ocean pH of between 0.14 and 0.35 units over the 21st century. While the effects
of observed ocean acidification on the marine biosphere are as yet undocumented, the progressive acidification of oceans is expected
to have negative impacts on marine shell-forming organisms (e.g. corals) and their dependent species. {3.3.4}
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Warming can cause irreversible damage to the critical coral reefs
Union of Concerned Scientists, 8-10-05, “Early Warning Signs: Coral Reef Bleaching”
Coral reefs are one of the most productive ecosystems on Earth, providing many critical services to fisheries, shoreline protection,
tourism, and to medicine. They are also believed to be among the most sensitive ecosystems to long-term climate change (Nurse et al.,
1998). Elevated sea surface temperatures can cause coral to lose their symbiotic algae, which are essential for the nutrition and color
of corals. When the algae die, corals appear white and are referred to as "bleached." Water temperatures of as little as one degree
Celsius above normal summer maxima, lasting for at least two to three days, can be used as a predictor of coral bleaching events
(Goreau and Hayes, 1994). Studies indicate that most coral are likely to recover from bleaching if the temperature anomalies persist
for less than a month, but the stress from sustained high temperatures can cause physiological damage that may be irreversible
(Wilkinson et al., 1999).
Coral reefs are vulnerable to warming and they are key to biodiversity and
industry
Thomas J Goreau, president of the non-profit Global Coral Reef Alliance, 5-31-05, “Global Warming and coral reefs”
http://www.opendemocracy.net/globalization-climate_change_debate/2558.jsp
Coral reefs are the most sensitive of all ecosystems to global warming, pollution, and new diseases. They will be first to go as a result
of climate change. As the most important resources for fisheries, tourism, shore protection, and marine biodiversity for more than a
hundred countries, this will be a huge disaster. Almost all reefs have already been heated above their maximum temperature
thresholds. Many have already lost most of their corals, and temperature rise in most places gives only a few years before most corals
die from heatstroke.
Warming kills coral, hurting biodiversity

Sean Markey, staff writer for National Geographic News, 5-16-06, Global Warming Has Devastating Effect on Coral Reefs, Study
Shows, http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/05/warming-coral.html
Eight years after warming seas caused the worst coral die-off on record, coral reefs in the Indian Ocean are still unable to recover,
biologists say. Many reefs have been reduced to rubble, a collapse that has deprived fish of food and shelter. As a result, fish
diversity has tumbled by half in some areas, say authors of the first long-term study of the effects of warming-caused bleaching on
coral reefs and fish. The study focused on reefs near Africa's Seychelles islands, north of Madagascar (see Seychelles map), which
sustained heavy losses from bleaching in 1998. "The outlook for recovery is quite bleak for the Seychelles," said lead study author
Nicholas Graham, a tropical marine biologist at England's University of Newcastle Upon Tyne. The study, in today's Proceedings of
the National Academy of Sciences, predicts that isolated reef ecosystems like that around the Seychelles will suffer the most from
global warming-caused bleaching events. Warming Oceans Small but prolonged rises in sea temperature force coral colonies to expel
their symbiotic, food-producing algae, a process known as bleaching.
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Reefs are being destroyed by warming and must be saved for biodiversity,
hunger, industry, and lifesaving medicines
Charles W. Schmidt, science writer specializing in the environment, genomics, and information technology, Jul 08 “In Hot Water:
Global Warming Takes a Toll on Coral Reefs” http://www.ehponline.org/members/2008/116-7/focus.html
In the summer of 2005, while Atlantic hurricanes battered coastlines from Cuba to Mexico, the Eastern Caribbean baked under a
relentless sun with barely a breeze to cool the air. Tourists and locals alike wilted in the heat, and below the sea, marine life and corals
in particular suffered as well. The windless calm settled in just as a buildup of unusually warm water began accumulating in the
region. Ordinarily, easterly trade winds would have churned the sea, helping it to cool. But thanks to an unprecedented heat wave
beginning in May—the result of a confluence of factors related to climate change, scientists say—water temperatures in the Eastern
Caribbean climbed and stayed high for months, reaching levels that by September would be warmer than any recorded in 150 years.
The heat disturbed a symbiotic partnership that coral animals normally maintain with a type of algae called zooxanthellae.
Zooxanthellae supply corals with essential nutrients produced by photosynthesis, particularly carbon, in return for the shelter and
access to sunlight provided by the reefs. The algae also impart color to the corals, which themselves are colorless. But as sea
temperatures rose, the zooxanthellae disappeared, leaving their carbon-deprived hosts behind to starve. The reefs turned snow white,
the color of the underlying stonelike structures they had built up over centuries, in a phenomenon known as coral bleaching. As the
heat wave progressed, it left a trail of bleached reefs the likes of which had never been seen in the Caribbean. By year's end, coral
cover ranging from 90% in the Virgin Islands to 52% in the French West Indies was affected. Coral bleaching isn't always fatal—if
water temperatures cool in time, the zooxanthellae might return, allowing corals to recover. But in parts of the Eastern Caribbean, the
reefs never got a chance. Almost as soon as their recovery started, they were attacked by diseases affecting a range of coral species
down to 60 feet. By 2007, roughly 60% of the coral cover in the Virgin Islands and 53% in Puerto Rico's La Parguera Natural Reserve
was dead—an unprecedented tragedy. The Eastern Caribbean disease outbreak came on the heels of what's been a rough several
decades for coral reefs worldwide. Long suffering from land-based pollution, habitat destruction, and overfishing, coral reefs now
must also contend with climate change, which has accelerated their global decline. This puts a wealth of biodiversity at risk. Reefs
support up to 800 types of coral, 4,000 fish species, and countless invertebrates. Reef-dwelling species numbering in the hundreds of
thousands may not even be catalogued yet, some scientists speculate. The implications of these declines could be as disastrous for
human health as they are for marine life. Globally, reefs provide a quarter of the annual fish catch and food for about 1 billion people,
according to the United Nations Environment Programme. Reefs protect shorelines from storm surges, which could become more
powerful as sea levels rise with climate change. Tourism—a mainstay of coastal economies in the tropics, worth billions in annual
revenue—could suffer if reefs lose their appeal. Reefs are also a long-standing source of medicines to treat human disease. Being
attached to reefs, corals and other immobilized marine animals can't escape predators, so they deploy a range of chemical compounds
to deter hunters, fight disease, and thwart competing organisms. Two antiviral drugs (vidarabine and azidothymidine) and the
anticancer agent cytarabine were developed using compounds extracted from Caribbean reef sponges. Another product called
dolastatin 10, isolated from the sea hare (Dolabella auricularia) of the Indian Ocean, has been investigated as a treatment for breast
and liver cancers and leukemia. Many more lifesaving medicines and useful chemical products could one day be derived from reef
dwellers, experts say. Saving these ecosystems is imperative on a range of levels, says Caroline Rogers, a marine ecologist with the
U.S. Geological Survey in St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands. "We have to save them for economic, ecological, aesthetic, and even spiritual
reasons," she says. "People need to feel connected with nature and with systems that are bigger than they are. Coral reefs are awe-
inspiring—we're losing something that we barely understand."
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Warming sea levels and increased acidity caused by warming will decimate
coral
Charles W. Schmidt, science writer specializing in the environment, genomics, and information technology, Jul 08 “In Hot Water:
Global Warming Takes a Toll on Coral Reefs” http://www.ehponline.org/members/2008/116-7/focus.html
Corals live within a few degrees of temperatures that can send them into a tailspin. They've survived on that precipice for thousands of
years because ocean temperatures in the tropics have been stable. But that's no longer the case. Seawater warmed by a global average
of nearly 1°C over the twentieth century, according to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Meanwhile, episodes of coral bleaching and disease are occurring with mounting frequency around the world. In 1997–1998, the
world's largest bleaching event ever killed 16% of the world's reefs, with mortality approaching 90% throughout Bahrain, the
Maldives, Sri Lanka, Singapore, and parts of Tanzania. If carbon dioxide in the atmosphere rises from its current level of 380 ppm to
450–500 ppm by mid-century, as the IPCC predicts could happen if greenhouse gas emissions are not curbed, average ocean
temperatures will rise an additional 2°C, an intolerable increase for most coral species. What's more, atmospheric carbon dioxide is
being absorbed by seawater and converted to carbonic acid, which serves to lower the ocean's pH, threatening reef structures with
dissolution, explains Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, director of the Centre for Marine Studies at the University of Queensland in Australia.
Scientists now warn that within a few decades, reefs could suffer cataclysmic changes, as coral populations dwindle past the point of
return.
Warming increases bleaching and diseases among coral reefs

Rhett A. Butler, mongabay.com, 5-7-07, “Global warming is killing coral reefs” http://news.mongabay.com/2007/0507-coral.html
A new study provides further evidence that climate change is adversely affecting coral reefs. While previous studies have linked
higher ocean temperatures to coral bleaching events, the new research, published in PLoS Biology, found that climate change may
increasing the incidence of disease in Great Barrier Reef corals. Omniously, the research also shows that healthy reefs, with the
highest density of corals, are hit the hardest by disease. Monitoring 48 reefs along more than 900 miles (1,500 kilometers) of
Australia's coastline for six years, a team of researchers led by John Bruno, a marine biologist at the University of North Carolina at
Chapel Hill, tracked white syndrome, an infectious disease that kills coral. They found that "reefs with high coral cover and warm sea
surface temperatures had the greatest white syndrome frequency." "More diseases are infecting more coral species every year, leading
to the global loss of reef-building corals and the decline of other important species dependent on reefs," said Bruno. "We've long
suspected climate change is driving disease outbreaks. Our results suggest that warmer temperatures are increasing the severity of
disease in the ocean."
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Warming causes coral loss
Ecobridge, 10-5-06, “Evidence of Global Warming” http://www.ecobridge.org/content/g_evd.htm
In March, 2006 researchers discovered devastating loss of coral in the Caribbean off Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. "It's an
unprecedented die-off," said National Park Service fisheries biologist Jeff Miller, who last week checked 40 official monitoring
stations in the Virgin Islands. "The mortality that we're seeing now is of the extremely slow-growing reef-building corals. These are
corals that are the foundation of the reef ... We're talking colonies that were here when Columbus came by have died in the past three
to four months."...............Miller noted that some of the devastated coral can never be replaced because it only grows the width of one
dime each year. If coral reefs die "you lose the goose with golden eggs" that are key parts of small island economies, said Edwin
Hernandez-Delgado, a University of Puerto Rico biology researcher. While investigating the widespread loss of Caribbean coral,
Hernandez-Delgado found a colony of 800-year-old star coral — more than 13 feet high — that had just died in the waters off Puerto
Rico.........."We did lose entire colonies," he said. "This is something we have never seen before." "We haven't seen an event of this
magnitude in the Caribbean before," said Mark Eakin, coordinator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Coral
Reef Watch. Tom Goreau of the Global Coral Reef Alliance says that compared to coral areas in the Indian and Pacific ocean, where
warming waters have brought about a 90% mortality rate, the Caribbean is healthier.
Coral is bleached by warming, decreasing biodiversity

Ecobridge, 10-5-06, “Evidence of Global Warming” http://www.ecobridge.org/content/g_dgr.htm
Coral bleaching is happening all over the world in many countries. Whenever coral is stressed by higher water temperatures, even only
2 or 3 degrees Fahrenheit warmer, it may expel the algae that nourishes it and gives the coral its color, thus coral bleaching. Coral
usually recovers from bleaching, but it cannot survive the stress of constant warming waters. Second to rainforests in biodiversity of
species, coral reefs have been called the rainforests of the sea. An example of coral reef biodiversity are the reefs of the Florida Keys,
which sustain 500 species of fish, more than 1700 species of mollusks, five species of sea turtles, and hundreds of species of sponges.
Lose the algae that sustains the coral, we lose the fisheries that depend on the coral. John Ogden, a marine biologist and director of the
Florida Institute of Oceanography says that coral reefs provide about 10% of global fisheries, “fish going directly into the mouths of
the people who need the protein the most, the coastal populations of Third World countries.” In a report released at the 9th Int’l Coral
Reef Symposium in Bali, Indonesia (October 2000), Indonesian researchers noted that about 27% of the world's coral reefs have been
destroyed. Most of the remaining coral could be dead in 20 years, if global warming and pollution continue. [100] “Reefs are tough,”
says Clive Wilkinson, a biologist at the Australian Institute of Marine Science. “You can hammer them with cyclones, and they’ll
bounce right back. What they can’t bounce back from is chronic, constant stress.”
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Global Warming’s destroying coral reefs, the cornerstone of marine
biodiversity
Pew Center on Global Climate Change, an independent, non-profit, non-partisan organization led by Eileen Claussen,
former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs, February 13, 2004
“Press Release: Global Warming Expected to Further Degrade Coral Reef Systems”
http://www.pewclimate.org/press_room/global_warming_reefs.cfm
Coral reefs have the highest biodiversity of any marine ecosystem, providing important ecosystem services and direct economic
benefits to the large and growing human populations in low-latitude coastal zones. One recent estimate valued the annual net
economic benefits of the world’s coral reefs at $30 billion. But human activities including development in coastal areas, over-
fishing, and pollution have contributed to a global loss approaching 25 percent of these valuable ecosystems. Global warming is
expected to further contribute to coral reef degradation in the decades ahead. A new Pew Center on Global Climate Change
report, Coral Reefs & Global Climate Change: Potential Contributions of Climate Change to Stresses on Coral Reef Ecosystems,
authored by Drs. Robert W. Buddemeier, Joan A. Kleypas, and Richard B. Aronson, outlines the likely impacts of climate change
and global warming over the next century to coral reef systems both in U.S. waters and around the world. The report reviews the
published literature in an effort to analyze the current state of knowledge regarding coral reef communities and the potential
contribution of future climate change to coral reef degradation and loss. The report concludes that recent global increases in reef
ecosystem degradation and mortality (the “coral reef crisis”) are exceeding the adaptive capacity of coral reef organisms and
communities. The severity of this crisis will only intensify with future changes in the global climate. “Coral reefs are striking,
complex, and important features of the marine environment,” said Eileen Claussen, President of the Pew Center. “If we fail to act,
the destruction of these rare and important ecosystems will continue unabated, threatening one of our world’s most precious
natural resources.”
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CO2-induced calcium carbonate dissolution kills coral reefs—it’s key to growth
and protection
Robert W. Buddemeier, KANSAS GEOLOGICAL SURVEY, Joan A. Kleypas, NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC
RESEARCH, and Richard B. Aronson, DAUPHIN ISLAND SEALAB, February 2004 “Coral reefs Potential Contributions of
Climate Change to Stresses on Coral Reef Ecosystems & Global climate change” Published by the Pew Center for Climate Change
Reef-building occurs where calcium carbonate precipitation exceeds its removal. The structural components of reefs (skeletons of
corals and algae) are glued together and made more resistant to physical breakdown by calcium carbonate cements that
precipitate within the reef framework, and by the over- growth of thin layers of calcareous algae. A reduction in
CaCO3precipitation by whatever means (mortality of reef organisms, lowered calcification rates, or lowered cementation rates)
reduces a reef’s ability to grow and to withstand erosion (Kleypas et al., 2001). Some slow-growing or weakly cemented reefs
may stop accumulating or shrink as carbonate deposition declines and/or erosion increases. Such effects have been observed in
the Galápagos and elsewhere (Eakin, 1996; Reaka-Kudla et al., 1996). Future changes in seawater chemistry will not only lead to
decreases in calcification rates, but also to increases in CaCO3dissolution. Field experiments (Halley and Yates, 2000) indicate
that the dissolution rate could equal the calcification rate once atmospheric CO2concentrations reach double the preindustrial
levels. This points to a slow-down or reversal of reef-building and the potential loss of reef structures in the future.
C02 kills coral—deprives them necessary CACO3 for calcification

The oceans currently absorb about a third of the anthropogenic CO2 inputs to the atmosphere,resulting in significant changes in
seawater chemistry that affect the ability of reef organisms to calcify (Houghton et al., 2001). Photosynthesis and respiration by
marine organisms also affect seawater CO2concentration, but the overwhelming driver of CO2concentrations in shallow seawater
is the concentration of CO2in the overlying atmosphere. Changes in the CO2concentration of seawater through well-known
processes of air- sea gas exchange alter the pH (an index of acidity) and the concentrations of carbonate and bicarbonate ions
(Box 7; previous page). Surface seawater chemistry adjusts to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations on a time scale of about
a year. Projected increases in atmospheric CO2may drive a reduction in ocean pH to levels not seen for millions of years (Caldeira
and Wickett, 2003). Many marine organisms use calcium (Ca2+) and carbonate (CO32–) ions from seawater to secrete
CaCO3skeletons. Reducing the concentration of either ion can affect the rate of skeletal deposition, but the carbonate ion is much
less abundant than calcium, and appears to play a key role in coral calcification (Langdon, 2003). The carbonate ion
concentration in surface water will decrease substantially in response to future atmospheric CO2increases (Box 7; Figure 5),
reducing the calcification rates of some of the most important CaCO3producers. These include corals and calcareous algae on
coral reefs and planktonic organisms such as coccolithophores (Riebesell et al., 2000) and foraminifera in the open ocean
(Barker and Elderfield, 2002).
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Warming Bad – Ext. Coral Key to Biodiversity

Coral’s key to global biodiversity—offers unique geological and biological
structures to sustain life
Robert W. Buddemeier, KANSAS GEOLOGICAL SURVEY, Joan A. Kleypas, NATIONAL CENTER FOR
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH, and Richard B. Aronson, DAUPHIN ISLAND SEALAB, February 2004
“Coral reefs Potential Contributions of Climate Change to Stresses on Coral Reef Ecosystems & Global climate change” Published by
the Pew Center for Climate Change
Coral reefs offer many values to human society and to the health of the biosphere. Reefs support fisheries, and reef structures provide
natural breakwaters that protect shorelines, other ecosystems, and human settlements from waves and storms. Humans use reefs and
reef products extensively for food, building materials, pharmaceuticals, the aquarium trade, and other products. Due to their grandeur,
beauty, and novelty, reefs have become prime tourist destinations and, therefore, economic resources. Less evident are the multiple
“ecosystem services” of coral reefs, such as recycling nutrients and providing food, shelter, and nursery habitat for many other
species. Many of these services are related to the geologic and biologic structures that create the spatial complexity necessary for the
high biodiversity of reefs. The biodiversity is not all marine; humans, like many seabirds and other air-breathing species, have
colonized island and coastal environments formed by coral reef communities
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Warming Bad – Coral – AT: Sea Level Rise Helps Coral

Flooding overpowers reef adaptability, suppressing growth
P.W. Glynn, professor in the Division of Marine Biology and Fisheries, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science,
University of Miami, 19 June 1992 “Coral reef bleaching: ecological perspectives” Coral Reefs 12:1-17
Some workers have suggested that sea level rise that would accompany global warming might initially favor vertical reef flat
accretion when coral growth could keep pace with the flooding (Buddemeier and Smith 1988; Hopley and Kinsey 1988). This
prediction is based on a globally averaged most probable sea level rise of 15+_3 ram/year (Hoffman et al. i983). Predictions of
coral reef growth responses to sea level rise are complicated, however, by the high susceptibility of important reef-building coral
species to the sea warming events observed in the 1980s (Williams and Bunkley-Williams 1990; Glynn 1991). It is probable that
sustained elevated sea temperatures that would accompany sea level rise would suppress coral growth or kill many reef flat corals
before they could respond to reef flooding. If coral growth is retarded, it may be more susceptible to the destructive effects of
corallivores and bioeroders that would probably not be affected by higher temperatures. Com- pared with the mass coral
mortalities in Panama caused by the 1982-83 ENSO warming event, most corallivores, herbivores, and bioeroding sea urchin
populations remained at pre-1983 abundances or increased in size after that disturbance (Glynn 1985 a, 1988 c, 1990).
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Warming Bad – Disease

Warming causes diseases
Smartbrief, 7-14-08, “Global warming could cause malaria increase” http://www.smartbrief.com/news/aabb/storyDetails.jsp?
issueid=D3A7F3A6-E91A-45F1-AD74-9A412CDFCBB9&copyid=BDC59903-2014-4D8D-9947-FF5B41D9B582
Global warming is contributing to the spread of infectious diseases, and the problem has become more serious in the past decade,
medical experts said at a global conference on climate change and human health. Experts predicted continued problems with
malaria in mountainous regions, the spread of West Nile virus and a year-round flu season near the equator.
Warming causes diseases, disasters, etc

AP, Dina Cappiello, staff writer, 7-15-08, “EPA experts detail global warming's health risks,”
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5ifTIO4F-5F4uJL8wnzMbDs3wSzzAD91TTBG00
WASHINGTON (AP) — Government scientists detailed a rising death toll from heat waves, wildfires, disease and smog caused
by global warming in an analysis the White House buried so it could avoid regulating greenhouse gases. In a 149-page document
released Monday, the experts laid out for the first time the scientific case for the grave risks that global warming poses to people,
and to the food, energy and water on which society depends. "Risk (to human health, society and the environment) increases with
increases in both the rate and magnitude of climate change," scientists at the Environmental Protection Agency said. Global
warming, they wrote, is "unequivocal" and humans are to blame. The document suggests that extreme weather events and diseases
carried by ticks and other organisms could kill more people as temperatures rise. Allergies could worsen because climate change
could produce more pollen. Smog, a leading cause of respiratory illness and lung disease, could become more severe in many parts
of the country. At the same time, global warming could mean fewer illnesses and deaths due to cold. "This document inescapably,
unmistakably shows that global warming pollution not only threatens human health and welfare, but it is adversely impacting
human health and welfare today," said Vickie Patton, deputy general counsel for the Environmental Defense Fund. "What this
document demonstrates is that the imperative for action is now."
Warming increases disease

A recent study by New Zealand doctors, researchers at the Wellington School of Medicine's public health department said outbreaks
of dengue fever in South Pacific islands are directly related to global warming. ************ According to a report from World
Wildlife Fund, dengue, or breakbone fever has now resurged in the Americas infecting over 200,000 people in 1995. ************
In a San Francisco Chronicle article (September 28, 1996) Paul Epstein of Harvard's School of Public Health noted during a
conference on Climate Change and Human Health in the Asian Pacific, that insects are bringing illnesses like malaria and dengue to
higher altitudes in Africa, Asia and Latin America. It was also reported at this conference that continued global warming will cause
the spread of these diseases and also encephalitis and yellow fever to higher latitudes. ************ "Many of the most important
diseases in poor countries, from malaria to diarrhoea and malnutrition are highly sensitive to climate," said Diarmid Campbell-
Lendrum, of the World Health Organization (WHO), and a co-author of a report published in the science journal Nature on November
17, 2005. The report says that climate change is the driving force behind an increase in debilitating illnesses such as malaria,
malnutrition and diarrhea. "Those least able to cope and least responsible for the greenhouse gases that cause global warming are most
affected," says lead author Jonathan Patz, a professor at University of Wisconsin at Madison's Gaylord Nelson Institute for
Environmental Studies. "Herein lies an enormous global ethical challenge."...."Our energy-consumptive lifestyles are having lethal
impacts on other people around the world, especially the poor."says Dr. Patz. The parts of the globe most vulnerable are the Asian and
South American Pacific coasts, the Indian Ocean coast and sub-Saharan Africa. Patz and his colleagues point to the moral
responsibility of the industrial countries, such as the United States to take a leadership role in curbing emissions.
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Warming increases spread of infectious diseases that have heavy economic
costs and destroy biodiversity
OSB , Ocean Studies Board, 2002, http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=10136&page=11
Yet another area of potential concern is health—both of humans, of domesticated plants and animals, and of wildlife (National
Research Council, 1999a). There is widespread appreciation of the potential for unwelcome invasions of new or exotic diseases in the
human population, particularly of vector-borne diseases such as malaria. Similar concerns may arise for pests and diseases that attack
livestock or agriculture. Another concern is diseases of wildlife. Scenarios based on climate models for greenhouse warming indicate
that changes will occur in the geographic distribution of a number of waterborne diseases (e.g., cholera, schistosomiasis) and vector-
borne diseases (e.g., malaria, yellow fever, dengue, leishmaniasis) if not countered by changes in adaptation, public health, or
treatment availability. These changes will be driven largely by increases in precipitation leading to favorable habitat availability for
vectors, intermediate and reservoir hosts, and/ or warming that leads to expansion of ranges in low latitudes, oceans, or montane
regions. The host-parasite dynamics for abrupt climate change have not been targeted specifically as yet, but Daszak et al. (2001)
suggested three phenomena that indicate abrupt climate change may have had heightened impacts on key human diseases: There
appears to be a strong link between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and outbreaks of Rift Valley fever, cholera, hantavirus, and
a range of emergent diseases (Colwell, 1996; Bouma and Dye, 1997; Linthicum et al., 1999), and if ENSO cycles become more
intense, these events may become more extensive and have greater impact; Malaria has reemerged in a number of upland tropical
regions (Epstein, 1998) (although this is debated by Reiter, 1998); and Recent extreme weather events have precipitated a number of
disease outbreaks (Epstein, 1998). Criteria that define emerging infectious diseases of humans were recently used to also identify a
range of emerging infectious diseases that affect wildlife (Daszak et al., 2000). They include a fungal disease that is responsible for
mass mortality of amphibians on a global scale and linked to species extinctions (Berger et al., 1998), canine distemper virus in
African wild dogs, American ferrets and a series of marine mammals, and brucellosis in bison as well as others. An ongoing reduction
in biodiversity and increased threats of disease emergence in humans and livestock make the impacts of these changes potentially very
large. Emerging diseases are affected by anthropogenic environmental changes that increase transmission rates to certain populations
and select for pathogens adapted to these new conditions. Daszak (2001) points to abrupt climate change as pushing environmental
conditions past thresholds that allow diseases to become established following their introduction. For example, African horse sickness
(a vector-borne disease of horses, dogs, and zebras) is endemic in sub-Saharan Africa. Although it usually dies out within 2 to 3 years
of introduction to Europe, the latest event involving imported zebras to Spain resulted in a 5-year persistence, probably because recent
climate changes have allowed the biting midge vector to persist in the region (Mellor and Boorman, 1995). Introduced diseases are
costly—a single case of domestic rabies in New Hampshire led to treatment of over 150 people at a cost of $1.1 million. The cost of
introduced diseases to humans, livestock, and crop plant health is estimated today at over $41 billion per year (Daszak et al., 2000).
Abrupt climate change-driven disease emergence will significantly increase this burden. Furthermore, the economic implications of
biodiversity loss due to abrupt climate change-related disease events may be severe, as wildlife supports many areas (fisheries,
recreation, wild crops) very significant to our well-being.
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Climate Change enables disease vectors - 300,000 will die by 2020
Infectious disease Climate change will have a number of serious health-related impacts, including illness and death directly
attributable to temperature increases, extreme weather, air pollution, water diseases, vector- and rodent-borne diseases and food and
water shortages. 1.7m people die prematurely every year because they do not have access to safe drinking water, and the situation will
worsen if waterborne pathogens multiply as a result of rising temperatures.28 But the greatest security risk is from infectious disease.
Temperature is the key factor in the spread of some infectious diseases, especially where mosquitoes are a vector, as with Ross River
fever, malaria and dengue fever. As the planet heats up, mosquitoes will move into previously inhospitable areas and higher altitudes,
while disease transmission seasons may last longer. A study by the World Health Organisation has estimated that 154,000 deaths
annually are attributable to the ancillary effects of global warming due mainly to malaria and malnutrition. This number could nearly
double by 2020.29 Currently, some 40% of the world’s population lives in areas affected by endemic malaria.30 Extreme weather
events and climate-related disasters could lead to short-term disease spikes because of the damage to food production, displacement
and reductions in the availability of fresh water. Poorer nations with limited public health services will be especially vulnerable.31
Health problems can quickly metamorphose into a national-security crisis if sufficient numbers of people are affected and there are
serious economic and social consequences, as occurred during the devastating flu pandemic of 1918–19 which killed from 40–100m
people.32 Climate change does not automatically or always provide a more favourable environment for the spread of infectious
diseases, since transmission rates and lethality are a function of many interrelated social, environmental, demographic and political
factors, including the level of public health, population density, housing conditions, access to clean water and the state of sewage and
wastemanagement systems, as well as human behaviour. All these factors affect the transmission dynamics of a disease and determine
whether or not it becomes an epidemic. But where climate is a consideration, temperature, relative humidity and precipitation will
affect the intensity of transmission. Temperature can influence the maturation, reproductive rate and survivability of the disease agent
within a vector, or carrier.33 So climate change will alter the distribution of the animals and insects which are host to dangerous
pathogens, increasing or decreasing the range of their habitats and breeding places.
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Warming Bad – Droughts

Climate change distorts rain patterns and destroys water sources, causing
massive droughts
Adequate supplies of fresh water for drinking, irrigation, and sanitation are the most basic prerequisite for human habitation.
Changes in rainfall, snowfall, snowmelt, and glacial melt have significant effects on fresh water supplies, and climate change is
likely to affect all of those things. In some areas of the Middle East, tensions over water already exist. Mountain glaciers are an
especially threatened source of fresh water [3]. A modest rise in temperature of about 2° to 4°F in mountainous regions can
dramatically alter the precipitation mix by increasing the share falling as rain while decreasing the share falling as snow. The
result is more flooding during the rainy season, a shrinking snow/ice mass, and less snowmelt to feed rivers during the dry
season [4]. Forty percent of the world’s population derives at least half of its drinking water from the summer melt of mountain
glaciers, but these glaciers are shrinking and some could disappear within decades. Several of Asia’s major rivers—the Indus,
Ganges, Mekong, Yangtze, and Yellow—originate in the Himalayas [4]. If the massive snow/ice sheet in the Himalayas—the
third-largest ice sheet in the world, after those in Antarctic and Greenland—continues to melt, it will dramatically reduce the
water supply of much of Asia. Most countries in the Middle East and northern Africa are already considered water scarce, and
the International Water Resource Management Institute projects that by 2025, Pakistan, South Africa, and large parts of India
and China will also be water scarce [5]. To put this in perspective: the U.S. would have to suffer a decrease in water supply that
produces an 80 percent decrease in per capita water consumption to reach the United Nations definition of “water scarce.” These
projections do not factor in climate change, which is expected to exacerbate water problems in many areas.
Warming increases droughts and floods

e63190d24817, 1377
Even larger variations in precipitation are projected. Although, on average, globally precipitation increases
there are large regional variations and large areas where there are likely to be decreases in average
precipitation and changes in its seasonal distribution. For instance, at high northern latitudes large
increases are projected in winter and over south Asia in summer. Southern Europe, Central America,
Southern Africa and Australia are likely to have drier summers.
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Warming Bad – Droughts

Climate change will cause immense droughts – IPCC report shows
The second big direct threat to this country is drought. The IPCC report concludes there is a better than two-thirds
chance the planet has already seen an increase in drought-stricken areas since the 1970s. And there's a better than 80
percent chance that many semi-arid areas, including the Western United States, southern Africa and northeast Brazil,
will suffer a decrease in water resources due to climate change. Australia recently abandoned its anti-Kyoto political
leadership in large part because of a brutal once-in-a-thousand-years drought affecting most of the country, which
Australian scientists link to climate change.
The United States has recently been experiencing some of its worst droughts in history, including in the Southeast and
Southern California, which has helped drive record wildfires in this country. Regional climate modeling remains a difficult art.
Yet the Bush administration has for seven years worked hard to conceal from the public all research on an assessment of U.S.
climate impacts. First, it undercut all efforts to publicize the first national assessment finished in 2000, and then, as science
writer Chris Mooney put it, replaced "a required follow-up assessment with what amounted to a scientific sham."
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Warming Bad – Economy Module

Warming hurts the economy, is accelerating and causing more damage than
expected
David Adam, environment correspondent for The Guardian, 4-18-08, “I underestimated the threat, says Stern,”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/apr/18/climatechange.carbonemissions
Stern said this week that new scientific findings showed greenhouse gas emissions were causing more damage than was understood in
2006, when he prepared his study for the government. He pointed to last year's reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) and new research which shows that the planet's oceans and forests are soaking up less carbon dioxide than expected.
He said: "Emissions are growing much faster than we'd thought, the absorptive capacity of the planet is less than we'd thought, the
risks of greenhouse gases are potentially bigger than more cautious estimates and the speed of climate change seems to be faster."
Stern said the new findings vindicated his report, which has been criticised by climate sceptics and some economists as exaggerating
the possible damage. "People who said I was scaremongering were profoundly wrong," he told a conference in London. He said that
increasing commitments from countries to curb greenhouse gases now needed to be translated into action. Earlier this week, Rajendra
Pachauri, head of the IPCC, said a lack of such action from developed countries could derail attempts to seal a new global climate
treaty at a crucial meeting in Copenhagen next year. The Stern Review was credited with shifting the debate about climate change
from an environmental focus to the economic impacts. It said the expected increase in extreme weather, with the associated and
expensive problems of agricultural failure, water scarcity, disease and mass migration, meant that global warming could swallow up to
20% of the world's GDP, with the poorest countries the worst affected. The cost of addressing the problem, it said, could be limited to
about 1% of GDP, provided it started on a serious scale within 10 to 20 years.
US economic decline causes nuclear war

- Cook 07 (Richard C. Cook, 6/14/07, Writer, Consultant, and Retired Federal Analyst - U.S. Treasury Department, "It's Official:
The Crash of the U.S. Economy has begun," http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=5964)
Times of economic crisis produce international tension and politicians tend to go to war rather than face the economic music.
The classic example is the worldwide depression of the 1930s leading to World War II. Conditions in the coming years could be
as bad as they were then. We could have a really big war if the U.S. decides once and for all to haul off and let China, or
whomever, have it in the chops. If they don’t want our dollars or our debt any more, how about a few nukes?
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Warming Bad – Ext. Economy

Warming bad impacts outweigh any positive ones, warming causes disease
and hurts econ
A study, by scientists at the World Health Organization (WHO) determined that 154,000 people die every year from the effects of
global warming, from malaria to malnutrition, children in developing nations seemingly the most vulnerable. These numbers could
almost double by 2020. "We estimate that climate change may already be causing in the region of 154,000 deaths...a year," Professor
Andrew Haines of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine told a climate change conference in Moscow. Haines said
the study suggested climate change could "bring some health benefits, such as lower cold-related mortality and greater crop yields in
temperate zones, but these will be greatly outweighed by increased rates of other diseases." Haines mentioned that small shifts in
temperatures, for instance, could extend the range of mosquitoes that spread malaria. Water supplies could be contaminated by floods,
for instance, which could also wash away crops. On November 28, 1998 the San Francisco Chronicle ran an Associated Press article
reporting that dollar damages from weather-related natural disasters (floods, storms, droughts, fires) worldwide for 1998 totaled $89
billion. (The final figure for 1998 was to be $93 billion.) Total damages for the entire decade of the 1980's were $83 billion (this is the
inflation-adjusted figure; actual figure was $54 billion). Damage totals for the 1990's soared above $340 billion, a 300% increase over
the 1980's.
Warming damages the economy and we must act now

Juliet Eilperin, Washington Post Staff Writer, 10-31-06, “Warming Called Threat To Global Economy”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/30/AR2006103000269.html
Failing to curb the impact of climate change could damage the global economy on the scale of the Great Depression or the world wars
by spawning environmental devastation that could cost 5 to 20 percent of the world's annual gross domestic product, according to a
report issued yesterday by the British government. The report by Nicholas Stern, who heads Britain's Government Economic Service
and formerly served as the World Bank's chief economist, calls for a new round of international collaboration to cut greenhouse gas
emissions linked to global warming. "There's still time to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, if we act now and act
internationally," Stern said in a statement. "But the task is urgent. Delaying action, even by a decade or two, will take us into
dangerous territory. We must not let this window of opportunity close."
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Warming Bad – Ext. Economy

Climate Change causes financial shocks and loss of biodiversity
Serious impacts to ecological or economic capital stocks can occur when they are disrupted in a manner preventing their timely
replacement, repair, or adaptation. It is generally believed that gradual climate change would allow much of the economic capital
stocks to roll over without major disruption. By contrast, a significant fraction of these stocks probably would be rendered obsolete if
there were abrupt and unanticipated climate change. For example, a rapid sea-level rise could inundate or threaten coastal build-ings;
abrupt changes in climate, particularly droughts or frosts, could destroy many perennial crops, such as forests, vineyards, or fruit trees;
changes in river runoff patterns could reduce the value of river facilities and flood-plain properties; warming could make ski resorts
less valuable and change the value of recreational capital; and rapid changes in climate could reduce the value of improperly insulated,
heated, and cooled houses. There may also be an impact on more intangible investments such as health, technological, and “taste”
capital, although these are more speculative. Similarly, ecological systems are vulnerable to abrupt climate change because they have
long-lived natural capital stocks, they are often relatively immobile and migrate slowly, and they do not have the capacity of humans
to adapt to or reduce vulnerability to major environmental changes. Ecological systems are also vulnerable because of anthropogenic
influences on the environment, which repeatedly alter ecosystems and limit species abundance and composition as a result of habitat
disturbance, fragmentation, and loss. Past examples of ecosystem vulnerability to rapid climate change, such as the Younger Dryas
cooling, illustrate the fragility of species diversity at one location as forests experienced rapid change. In southern New England, trees
such as spruce, fir, and paper birch experienced local extinctions within a period of 50 years at the close of the Younger Dryas (Peteet
et al., 1993). North American extinctions of horses, mastodons, mammoths, saber-toothed tigers, and many other animals were greater
at this time than at any other extinction event over millions of years (Meltzer and Mead, 1983). The reasons for this extinction have
been linked to both climate and early human impacts (Martin, 1984).
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Warming Bad – Flooding

Warming causes massive global flooding
Peter Schwartz, president of the Global Business Network an international think tank and consulting firm, and Doug Randall,
senior practitioner at GBN with over ten years of scenario planning. October 2003 “An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its
Implications for United States National Security”
By 2005 the climatic impact of the shift is felt more intensely in certain regions around the world. More severe storms and typhoons
bring about higher storm surges and floods in low-lying islands such as Tarawa and Tuvalu (near New Zealand). In 2007, a
particularly severe storm causes the ocean to break through levees in the Netherlands making a few key coastal cities such as The
Hague unlivable. Failures of the delta island levees in the Sacramento River region in the Central Valley of California creates an
inland sea and disrupts the aqueduct system transporting water from northern to southern California because salt water can no longer
be kept out of the area during the dry season. Melting along the Himalayan glaciers accelerates, causing some Tibetan people to
relocate. Floating ice in the northern polar seas, which had already lost 40% of its mass from 1970 to 2003, is mostly gone during
summer by 2010. As glacial ice melts, sea levels rise and as wintertime sea extent decreases, ocean waves increase in intensity,
damaging coastal cities. Additionally millions of people are put at risk of flooding around the globe (roughly 4 times 2003 levels), and
fisheries are disrupted as water temperature changes cause fish to migrate to new locations and habitats, increasing tensions over
fishing rights. Each of these local disasters caused by severe weather impacts surrounding areas whose natural, human, and economic
resources are tapped to aid in recovery. The positive feedback loops and acceleration of the warming pattern begin to trigger responses
that weren’t previously imagined, as natural disasters and stormy weather occur in both developed and lesser-developed nations. Their
impacts are greatest in less-resilient developing nations, which do not have the capacity built into their social, economic, and
agricultural systems to absorb change.
Warming causes flooding

Maggie Borman, Staff writer for The Telegraph, 7-13-08, “Global warming may increase floods, scientist says,”
http://www.thetelegraph.com/news/average_16116___article.html/inches_illinois.html
The National Wildlife Federation says people in the Central United States are not imagining things. The last few decades have brought
more heavy summer rainfall, along with increased likelihood of devastating floods. Climate scientist Amanda Staudt said that while
no single storm or flood, such as the high water recently in the Midwest, can be attributed directly to global warming, changing
climate conditions are at least partly responsible for the trends. Because warmer air can hold more moisture, global warming is
expected to bring more and heavier precipitation in the years to come, she said. "The big picture is that global warming is making
tragedies such as the recent Midwest flooding more frequent and intense," the Wildlife Federation's Staudt said.
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Warming Bad – Food Prices

Warming causes food shortages
Robert Watson, chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned rising temperatures will "cause decreases in
agricultural productivity in the tropics and sub-tropics ... areas where we already have hunger." (82) The threat to future food
supplies from climate change weighs heavily on an expected 2050 world population of 9 billion people. Lester R. Brown, founder of
the Earth Policy Institute and a noted environmental analyst who spent 10 years as a policy adviser in the Department of Agriculture,
says, "The vast corn belt of the Northern Hemisphere, for example, will become hotter and dryer, and that change can't be resolved
merely by creating new corn belts further north, because the soils further north are not the same at all."...Brown goes onto say, "Each
global increase of 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) around the world will reduce grain yields like rice and wheat, as well as
corn, by at least 10%."...Brown, noting the threat of water shortages from dwindling aquifers, says, "This disruption by a combination
of climate change and water shortages has the potential for creating political instabilities on a scale thsat we can't even forsee." [116]
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects an increase in global mean surface temperatures of about 1.5 to 6.0 degrees
C (2.5 to 10.4 degrees F) by 2100. (10) Scientists have issued a warning that increasing temperatures will diminish the yield of basic
crops of corn, soybean and rice. In a National Academy of Sciences report abstract (June, 2004), Rice yields decline with higher night
temperatures from global warming, it was demonstrated that “grain yield declined by 10% for each 1 degree Celsius increase in
growing-season minimum temperature in the dry season, whereas the effect of maximum temperature on crop yield was insignificant.
This report provides a direct evidence of decreased rice yields from increased nighttime temperature associated with global warming."
A study by researchers at the Carnegie Institution shows that over a 17-year period ended 1998 a 1-degree Celsius rise in temperature
during the June-August growing season reduces yields of soy bean and corn crops by 17 percent. In their 2003 Science journal report,
Climate and Management Contributions to Recent Trends in U.S. Agricultural Yields, the authors, David B. Lobell and Gregory P.
Asner say, “As the United States is the largest producer of both corn and soybean in the world, predicted future global production of
these crops based on historical trends may be overestimated.”
A decrease in crop yields causes worldwide nuclear war

WILLIAM H. CALVIN, prof @ University of Washington [Atlantic Monthy] 98
The population-crash scenario is surely the most appalling. Plummeting crop yields will cause some powerful countries to try to take
over their neighbors or distant lands — if only because their armies, unpaid and lacking food, will go marauding, both at home and
across the borders. The better-organized countries will attempt to use their armies, before they fall apart entirely, to take over countries
with significant remaining resources, driving out or starving their inhabitants if not using modern weapons to accomplish the same
end: eliminating competitors for the remaining food. This will be a worldwide problem — and could easily lead to a Third World
War — but Europe's vulnerability is particularly easy to analyze. The last abrupt cooling, the Younger Dryas, drastically altered
Europe's climate as far east as Ukraine. Present-day Europe has more than 650 million people. It has excellent soils, and largely grows
its own food. It could no longer do so if it lost the extra warming from the North Atlantic.
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Warming Bad – Hurricanes

Global Warming causes hurricanes
China View, 7-14-08, “Study: hurricane season longer, big storms sooner” http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-
07/14/content_8543160.htm
BEIJING, July 14 (Xinhuanet) -- Hurricane seasons are arriving early and hanging around longer during the past century, and the
big storms are forming earlier, some climate scientists say. Plus, the area of warm water able to support hurricanes is growing
larger over time. The Atlantic Ocean is becoming more hurricane friendly, scientists say, and the shift is likely due to global
warming. "There has been an increase in the seasonal length over the last century," Jay Gulledge, a senior scientist with the Pew
Center on Global Climate Change, told LiveScience. "It's pretty striking." A study Gulledge co-authored with other climate
scientists found a five-day increase in season length per decade since 1915. Hurricane season officially starts June 1, but the
first named storm of the 2008 season, Tropical Storm Albert, formed on May 31. The first hurricane of the season, Hurricane
Bertha, formed on July 1, reaching hurricane strength on July 7, relatively early in the season for a major storm. In the last
decade, more strong storms have been forming earlier in the season, said hurricane researcher Greg Holland of the National Center
for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo.
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Warming Bad – Ice Age

Global warming causes Flushing Failure which triggers cooling
William H. Calvin (Theoretical Nuerophysicist at the University of Washington in Seattle, 1/98"The great climate flip-flop,"
The Atlantic Monthly 281:47-64)
There are a few obvious precursors to flushing failure. One is diminished wind chill, when winds aren't as strong as usual, or as cold,
or as dry — as is the case in the Labrador Sea during the North Atlantic Oscillation. This El Niño-like shift in the atmospheric-
circulation pattern over the North Atlantic, from the Azores to Greenland, often lasts a decade. At the same time that the Labrador Sea
gets a lessening of the strong winds that aid salt sinking, Europe gets particularly cold winters. It's happening right now: a North
Atlantic Oscillation started in 1996. Another precursor is more floating ice than usual, which reduces the amount of ocean surface
exposed to the winds, in turn reducing evaporation. Retained heat eventually melts the ice, in a cycle that recurs about every five
years. Yet another precursor, as Henry Stommel suggested in 1961, would be the addition of fresh water to the ocean surface, diluting
the salt-heavy surface waters before they became unstable enough to start sinking. More rain falling in the northern oceans — exactly
what is predicted as a result of global warming — could stop salt flushing. So could ice carried south out of the Arctic Ocean. There is
also a great deal of unsalted water in Greenland's glaciers, just uphill from the major salt sinks. The last time an abrupt cooling
occurred was in the midst of global warming. Many ice sheets had already half melted, dumping a lot of fresh water into the ocean. A
brief, large flood of fresh water might nudge us toward an abrupt cooling even if the dilution were insignificant when averaged over
time. The fjords of Greenland offer some dramatic examples of the possibilities for freshwater floods. Fjords are long, narrow
canyons, little arms of the sea reaching many miles inland; they were carved by great glaciers when the sea level was lower.
Greenland's east coast has a profusion of fjords between 70°N and 80°N, including one that is the world's biggest. If blocked by ice
dams, fjords make perfect reservoirs for meltwater. Glaciers pushing out into the ocean usually break off in chunks. Whole sections of
a glacier, lifted up by the tides, may snap off at the "hinge" and become icebergs. But sometimes a glacial surge will act like an
avalanche that blocks a road, as happened when Alaska's Hubbard glacier surged into the Russell fjord in May of 1986. Its snout ran
into the opposite side, blocking the fjord with an ice dam. Any meltwater coming in behind the dam stayed there. A lake formed,
rising higher and higher — up to the height of an eight-story building. Eventually such ice dams break, with spectacular results. Once
the dam is breached, the rushing waters erode an ever wider and deeper path. Thus the entire lake can empty quickly. Five months
after the ice dam at the Russell fjord formed, it broke, dumping a cubic mile of fresh water in only twenty-four hours. The Great
Salinity Anomaly, a pool of semi-salty water derived from about 500 times as much unsalted water as that released by Russell Lake,
was tracked from 1968 to 1982 as it moved south from Greenland's east coast. In 1970 it arrived in the Labrador Sea, where it
prevented the usual salt sinking. By 1971-1972 the semi-salty blob was off Newfoundland. It then crossed the Atlantic and passed near
the Shetland Islands around 1976. From there it was carried northward by the warm Norwegian Current, whereupon some of it swung
west again to arrive off Greenland's east coast — where it had started its inch-per-second journey. So freshwater blobs drift,
sometimes causing major trouble, and Greenland floods thus have the potential to stop the enormous heat transfer that keeps the North
Atlantic Current going strong.
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Global warming will lead to an ice age instead of delay it
Andrew C. Revkin (“When will the next ice age begin?” New York Times staff writer, 11/11/2003,
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C04E6D61539F932A25752C1A9659C8B63).
But many climatologists note that the complex interplay of greenhouse gases, orbital shifts and other influences on climate remain
poorly understood. In fact, some experts say, there is a chance that human-induced warming could shut down heat-toting ocean
currents that keep northern latitudes warmer than they otherwise would be. The result could be a faster descent into glacial times
instead of a delay.
Warming melts ice sheets that cause changes in the THC

Ice sheets are linked to abrupt climate change because melting of Greenland or the West Antarctic ice sheet would add directly to
global sea level rise and to possible changes in the thermohaline circulation (Manabe and Stouffer, 1997). Much attention has been
focused on the possibility of a rapid collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet. Recent geological and glaciological evidence points to a
stable but net decay since the last ice age (Conway et al., 1999), but with considerable uncertainty about future trends and the
possibility of rapid dynamic response to future warming. The Greenland ice sheet has the potential for rapid surface melting and
perhaps enhanced ice flow with continued greenhouse warming. Laser-altimeter surveys in the 1990s indicated an overall negative
mass balance for Greenland ice that results in a 0.13 mm per year sea level rise (Krabill et al., 2000). Since the late 1800s the margin
of the Greenland ice sheet has retreated 2 km in some places (Funder and Weidick, 1991) indicating that Greenland ice is responding
to twentieth century warming. The influence of the Greenland ice sheet system on potential abrupt climate change appears to be linear
except for the possibility of threshold changes in ocean circulation, but the existence of dynamically controlled ice streaming at least
suggests the possibility of dynamical changes (Fahnestock et al., 1993).
Global warming causes thermohaline shut down

The second concerns possible changes in the ocean’s thermohaline circulation (THC). This is a current that
circulates in the deep ocean (figure 23) driven to a large degree by the descent of water in the Greenland
sea and Labrador sea areas of the north Atlantic ocean. Water that has originated in the tropics and
moved north in the Atlantic, undergoing a lot of evaporation, is both salty and cold—hence it is unusually
dense and readily sinks. With global warming, there is additional fresh water input at high latitudes
because of increased precipitation and ice melt. As a result, the THC will weaken and less heat will flow
northward from tropical regions to the north Atlantic. All coupled ocean–atmosphere GCMs show this
occurring, although in varying degrees, resulting in less warming in the region of the north Atlantic
(including north-west Europe)—although none show actual cooling occurring in this region during the 21st
century. There is also evidence that large changes in the THC have occurred in the past [83]. In the longer
term, some models show the THC actually cutting off completely after two or three centuries of increasing
greenhouse gases. Intense research is being pursued—both observations and modelling—to elucidate
further likely changes in the thermohaline circulation and their possible impact.
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Warming causes changes in the THC which causes abrupt climate change
Changes in ocean circulation, and especially THC in the North Atlantic, have been implicated in abrupt climate change of the
past, such as the Younger Dryas and the Dansgaard/Oeschger and Heinrich/Bond oscillations (Broecker et al., 1988; Alley and
Clark, 1999; Stocker, 2000). Today, relatively warm waters reach high latitudes only in the North Atlantic. The high salinity of the
Atlantic waters allows them to sink into the deep ocean when they cool, and warmer waters flowing along the surface then replace
them. This yields a net heat transport into the high northern latitudes of the Atlantic and northward heat transport throughout the
South Atlantic, carrying heat into the North Atlantic (Ganachaud and Wunsch, 2000; see also Plate 4b.) Outburst floods, which
would have freshened the North Atlantic and reduced the ability of its waters to sink, immediately preceded the coolings of the
Younger Dryas and the short cold event about 8,200 years ago (Broecker et al., 1988; Barber et al., 1999); this suggests causation.
Evidence of reduction or elimination of northern sinking of waters during cold times (Sarnthein et al., 1994; Boyle, 2000) provides
further support, as does the see-saw relation between Greenland and Antarctic temperatures on millennial scales (Blunier and
Brook, 2001; see also Plate 2), which suggests that reduction in heat transport to the north allowed that heat to remain in the south.
Those and other considerations focus attention on changes in the THC as one cause of abrupt climate change. However, additional
processes presumably were active in the past abrupt changes exemplified by the Younger Dryas, as indicated by the difficulty of
fully explaining the paleoclimatic data on the basis of the single mechanism of North Atlantic THC changes. Therefore, the
ocean’s role in climate is developed more fully in the following. Water has enormous heat capacity—oceans typically store 10-100
times more heat than equivalent land surfaces over seasonal time scales, and the solar input to the ocean surface for a year would
warm the upper kilometer only 1 degree—so the oceans exert a profound influence on climate through their ability to transport
heat from one location to another and their ability to sequester heat away from the surface. The deep ocean is a worldwide
repository of extremely cold water from the polar regions. If much of this water were brought to the surface in temperate or
tropical regions, it could cause substantial cooling that, although transient, could last for centuries. It is not easy to bring cold water
to the surface against a stable gradient, though, and this can happen only in special circumstances. Such localized change could,
however, have a wider impact through atmospheric teleconnections. Fluctuations in ocean heat transport can also affect climate;
for example, an increase in equator-to-pole heat transport would warm the polar regions (melting ice) and cool the tropics. The
implications of fluctuation in heat transport by the Atlantic THC have received particular attention, especially as a mediator of
Younger Dryas and Dansgaard/Oeschger abrupt change. Deep water forms only in the North Atlantic and around the periphery of
Antarctica, where extremely cold, dense waters occur. There is no deep-water formation in the North Pacific, because the salinity
is too low to allow high enough density to drive deep convection, despite the low temperatures. By analogy, change in the
freshwater balance of the North Atlantic, which might be caused by glacial discharge or warming of the planet through increases in
carbon dioxide, potentially can act as a trigger to turn the THC on or off.
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Thermohaline shut down freezes the northern atlantic region, destroying
agriculture and water supplies
After roughly 60 years of slow freshening, the thermohaline collapse begins in 2010, disrupting the temperate climate of Europe,
which is made possible by the warm flows of the Gulf Stream (the North Atlantic arm of the global thermohaline conveyor). Ocean
circulation patterns change, bringing less warm water north and causing an immediate shift in the weather in Northern Europe and
eastern North America. The North Atlantic Ocean continues to be affected by fresh water coming from melting glaciers, Greenland’s
ice sheet, and perhaps most importantly increased rainfall and runoff. Decades of high-latitude warming cause increased precipitation
and bring additional fresh water to the salty, dense water in the North, which is normally affected mainly by warmer and saltier water
from the Gulf Stream. That massive current of warm water no longer reaches far into the North Atlantic. The immediate climatic
effect is cooler temperatures in Europe and throughout much of the Northern Hemisphere and a dramatic drop in rainfall in many key
agricultural and populated areas. However, the effects of the collapse will be felt in fits and starts, as the traditional weather patterns
re-emerge only to be disrupted again—for a full decade. The dramatic slowing of the thermohaline circulation is anticipated by some
ocean researchers, but the United States is not sufficiently prepared for its effects, timing, or intensity. Computer models of the climate
and ocean systems, though improved, were unable to produce sufficiently consistent and accurate information for policymakers. As
weather patterns shift in the years following the collapse, it is not clear what type of weather future years will bring. While some
forecasters believe the cooling and dryness is about to end, others predict a new ice age or a global drought, leaving policy makers and
the public highly uncertain about the future climate and what to do, if anything. Is this merely a "blip" of little importance or a
fundamental change in the Earth’s climate, requiring an urgent massive human response? Cooler, Drier, Windier Conditions for
Continental Areas of the Northern Hemisphere Each of the years from 2010-2020 sees average temperature drops throughout
Northern Europe, leading to as much as a 6 degree Fahrenheit drop in ten years. Average annual rainfall in this region decreases by
nearly 30%; and winds are up to 15% stronger on average. The climatic conditions are more severe in the continental interior regions
of northern Asia and North America. The effects of the drought are more devastating than the unpleasantness of temperature
decreases in the agricultural and populated areas. With the persistent reduction of precipitation in these areas, lakes dry-up, river flow
decreases, and fresh water supply is squeezed, overwhelming available conservation options and depleting fresh water reserves. The
Mega-droughts begin in key regions in Southern China and Northern Europe around 2010 and last throughout the full decade. At the
same time, areas that were relatively dry over the past few decades receive persistent years of torrential rainfall, flooding rivers, and
regions that traditionally relied on dryland agriculture. In the North Atlantic region and across northern Asia, cooling is most
pronounced in the heart of winter -- December, January, and February -- although its effects linger through the seasons, the cooling
becomes increasingly intense and less predictable. As snow accumulates in mountain regions, the cooling spreads to summertime. In
addition to cooling and summertime dryness, wind pattern velocity strengthens as the atmospheric circulation becomes more zonal.
While weather patterns are disrupted during the onset of the climatic change around the globe, the effects are far more pronounced in
Northern Europe for the first five years after the thermohaline circulation collapse. By the second half of this decade, the chill and
harsher conditions spread deeper into Southern Europe, North America, and beyond. Northern Europe cools as a pattern of colder
weather lengthens the time that sea ice is present over the northern North Atlantic Ocean, creating a further cooling influence and
extending the period of wintertime surface air temperatures. Winds pick up as the atmosphere tries to deal with the stronger pole-to-
equator temperature gradient. Cold air blowing across the European continent causes especially harsh conditions for agriculture. The
combination of wind and dryness causes widespread dust storms and soil loss. Signs of incremental warming appear in the
southern most areas along the Atlantic Ocean, but the dryness doesn’t let up. By the end of the decade, Europe’s climate is more like
Siberia’s.
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Collapse of THC drops temperature around the world
MICHAEL VELLINGA AND RICHARD A. WOOD, Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research,
9/02, www.springerlink.com/fulltext.pdf
The collapse of the THC causes rapid global change in surface air temperature (Figure 2). Within 20 years after the shutdown of
the THC persistent anomalies (lasting two or more decades) have covered most of the Northern Hemisphere. In the Southern
Hemisphere the response takes longer to become apparent, up to three decades. The reduction of northward heat transport and
surface heat release in the North Atlantic lead to significant cooling of the air in that area. Maximum cooling of up to 8 ◦C occurs
over the northwest Atlantic. Over Europe the cooling is 1–3 ◦C in the third decade after the THC collapse (Figure 3). The
comparatively strong cooling over the northwest Atlantic and Labrador Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk is caused by increased sea-ice
cover (Vellinga et al., 2002) that isolates the atmosphere from the relatively warm sea surface and augments the cooling. The
atmospheric circulation effectively spreads the signal over large parts of the Northern Hemisphere. This results in significant
cooling up to 2 ◦C over Asia and North America.
A salinity spike collapses the THC and stops continental warming

Within 10 years after the salinity perturbation is applied the Atlantic THC (as measured by the zonally averaged meridional
circulation) collapses (Figure 1). This eliminates the northward heat transport and associated heat release in the North Atlantic. As
mentioned already the model is not in equilibrium during the first 100 years of the experiment. Even so, the transient climate response
allows an assessment of the impact that a permanent THC collapse would have because of the rapid response in important ocean and
atmosphere variables, such as ocean heat transport, sea surface temperature (‘SST’), precipitation etc. The effects of the slowest
components of the climate system (e.g., heat uptake by the deep ocean) on surface variables may, however, be underestimated in this
transient climate state. To see to what extent anomalies spread globally we mostly present fields for years 20–30 of the experiment,
even though the response around the North Atlantic is sometimes stronger in the first decade.
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Failure of the North Atlantic Current drops temperature by 18 degrees.
EUROPE is an anomaly. The populous parts of the United States and Canada are mostly between the latitudes of 30° and 45°, whereas
the populous parts of Europe are ten to fifteen degrees farther north. "Southerly" Rome lies near the same latitude, 42°N, as
"northerly" Chicago — and the most northerly major city in Asia is Beijing, near 40°N. London and Paris are close to the 49°N line
that, west of the Great Lakes, separates the United States from Canada. Berlin is up at 52°, Copenhagen and Moscow at about 56°.
Oslo is nearly at 60°N, as are Stockholm, Helsinki, and St. Petersburg; continue due east and you'll encounter Anchorage. Europe's
climate, obviously, is not like that of North America or Asia at the same latitudes. For Europe to be as agriculturally productive as it is
(it supports more than twice the population of the United States and Canada), all those cold, dry winds that blow eastward across the
North Atlantic from Canada must somehow be warmed up. The job is done by warm water flowing north from the tropics, as the
eastbound Gulf Stream merges into the North Atlantic Current. This warm water then flows up the Norwegian coast, with a westward
branch warming Greenland's tip, at 60°N. It keeps northern Europe about nine to eighteen degrees warmer in the winter than
comparable latitudes elsewhere — except when it fails. Then not only Europe but also, to everyone's surprise, the rest of the world
gets chilled. Tropical swamps decrease their production of methane at the same time that Europe cools, and the Gobi Desert whips
much more dust into the air. When this happens something big, with worldwide connections, must be switching into a new mode of
operation. The North Atlantic Current is certainly something big, with the flow of about a hundred Amazon Rivers. And it sometimes
changes its route dramatically, much as a bus route can be truncated into a shorter loop. Its effects are clearly global too, inasmuch as
it is part of a long "salt conveyor" current that extends through the southern oceans into the Pacific.
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Warming Bad – Ice Age – Brink

Thermohaline shut down will begin in 2010
After roughly 60 years of slow freshening, the thermohaline collapse begins in 2010, disrupting the temperate climate of Europe,
which is made possible by the warm flows of the Gulf Stream (the North Atlantic arm of the global thermohaline conveyor). Ocean
circulation patterns change, bringing less warm water north and causing an immediate shift in the weather in Northern Europe and
eastern North America. The North Atlantic Ocean continues to be affected by fresh water coming from melting glaciers, Greenland’s
ice sheet, and perhaps most importantly increased rainfall and runoff. Decades of high-latitude warming cause increased precipitation
and bring additional fresh water to the salty, dense water in the North, which is normally affected mainly by warmer and saltier water
from the Gulf Stream. That massive current of warm water no longer reaches far into the North Atlantic. The immediate climatic
effect is cooler temperatures in Europe and throughout much of the Northern Hemisphere and a dramatic drop in rainfall in many key
agricultural and populated areas. However, the effects of the collapse will be felt in fits and starts, as the traditional weather patterns
re-emerge only to be disrupted again—for a full decade.
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Warming Bad – Ice Age – Oceans Internal

THC affects the overturning of the ocean
Peter U. Clark et al ([Nicklas G. Pisias² Thomas F. Stocker & Andrew J. Weaver ]* Department of Geosciences, Oregon State
University, College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Climate and Environmental Physics,
University of Bern, 2/21/02, “The role of the thermohaline circulation in abrupt climate change,”
http://www.phys.uu.nl/~nvdelden/thermohalinecirculation.pdf)
The ocean affects climate through its high heat capacity relative to the surrounding land, thereby moderating daily, seasonal and
interannual temperature ¯uctuations, and through its ability to transport heat from one location to another. In the North Atlantic,
differential solar heating between high and low latitudes tends to accelerate surface waters polewards whereas freshwater input to high
latitudes together with low-latitude evaporation tend to brake this ¯ow. Today, the former thermal forcing dominates the latter
haline (freshwater) forcing and the meridional overturning in the Atlantic drives surface waters northward, while deep water that
forms in the Nordic Seas ¯ows southward as North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). This thermohaline circulation (THC) is
responsible for much of the total oceanic poleward heat transport in the Atlantic, peaking at about 1:2 6 0:3 PW (1 PW equals
1015 watts) at 248N (ref. 1).
Reduced oceanic circulation caused by global warming will destroy fisheries

Stefan Rahmstorf (Professor of Physics of the Oceans Potsdam University and Member of the German Advisory Council on
Global Change, 7/28/97, “Risk of sea-change in the Atlantic,” http://ovidsp.tx.ovid.com/spb/ovidweb.cgi?
QS2=434f4e1a73d37e8c8aa94c0b9249362ccb8a0647773dcb8b8e0160721288b22d6ee14f018578a72e4686988b58f11a12baa14c1
8c9df54c29766a799b5a256137f4f52ae3462a018e66655ea2208f162a20c75b509468795e37f73d70c48234b83ecb9ea66d8fd75cd86
5acf5b4e65efa79ae20a5629450d87cceb0806bd57df239313dd3baeea5acd44a84323f9d0747d555699daea53c5ab9ab7fc3fd1de77d2
e933b46f8851ea287fd19113aa022a437358ae52000ff14f62ff928c711a4730138b335f0f965a5f6209c8aca32efb236b55fa008448047
36404b153d5b1e05b5c5d7d54b3c0a3)
Global warming can roughly compensate for the reduced oceanic heat transport in these experiments, because the ocean circulation
winds down only slowly. There are several caveats here. That the maximum effect is south of Greenland points at the overflow
problem mentioned above. One can only speculate whether the response would be larger if the models formed more deep water
north of the sills, so that the 'conveyor belt' would reach further north and interact with sea ice as it does in the real world. And a
much faster circulation change (such as those seen in the ice-age climate records) may be possible through a different, convective
type of instability [3], which has its own critical thresholds and depends on regional detail poorly represented in present climate
models. But whatever the effects of air temperature, such as change in ocean circulation would certainly have a severe
effect on marine ecosystems and fisheries. Even small fluctuations in ocean currents have led to the collapse of fish stocks
and sea-bird populations in the past. Another concern is that a reduced thermohaline circulation would weaken the carbon
dioxide uptake of the ocean [9], effectively making the climate system more susceptible to anthropogenic emissions. So a
collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation would probably have serious consequences, involving risks that no nation
bordering the North Atlantic would willingly take. Climate models are still too coarse to accurately predict how vulnerable the
ocean circulation is, but they suggest that crossing a critical limit is within the range of possibilities for the next century. A
disruption of the thermohaline circulation cannot be ruled out if we continue to pollute the atmosphere at the present rate.
The work of Stocker and Schmittner is a timely reminder, before the Kyoto climate summit in December, that swift action is
needed to reduce the risk of unwelcome climatic surprises.
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Warming Bad – Ice Age – Oceans Internal

Fisheries are key to the global economy and human nutrition
Earth Trends, environmental information, 10-31-06, http://earthtrends.wri.org/pdf_library/info_guides/EarthTrends-
InformationGuide-Fisheries.pdf
For centuries, fisheries have supported local economies by providing steady employment
and income, and have served as a primary source of protein, particularly in developing
countries. The importance of fisheries to the global economy and human nutrition has only
increased as advances in technology have made it easier to harvest marine resources.
However, unsustainable fishing practices have caused dramatic declines in most fish
stocks, decimating wild populations and jeopardizing the long-term utilization of fisheries
resources.
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Warming Bad – Ice Age – Biodiversity Impact

Even if collapse of THC doesn’t cause Ice age, it will still result in a loss of
biodiversity
If the increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration leads to a collapse of the Atlantic THC, the result will not be global
cooling. However, there might be regional cooling over and around the North Atlantic, relative to a hypothetical global-warming
scenario with unchanged THC. By itself, this reduced warming might not be detrimental. However, we cannot rule out the possibility
of net cooling over the North Atlantic if the THC decrease is very fast. Such rapid cooling would exert a large strain on natural and
societal systems. The probability of this occurring is unknown but presumably much smaller than that of any of the more gradual
scenarios included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (Plate 7). The probability is not, however, zero.
Obtaining rational estimates of the probability of such a low-probability/high-impact event is crucial. It is worth remembering that
models such as those used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report consistently underestimate the size and extent of
anomalies associated with past changes of the THC; if the underestimate results from lack of model sensitivity possibly linked to
overly coarse resolution or other shortcomings rather than from improper specification of forcing, future climate anomalies could be
surprisingly large. Even if no net cooling results from a substantial, abrupt change in the Atlantic THC, the changes in water properties
and regional circulation are expected to be large, with possibly large effects on ecosystems, fisheries, and sea level. There are no
credible scenarios of these consequences, largely because the models showing abrupt change in the THC have too crude spatial
resolution to be used in regional analyses. To develop these scenarios would require the combination of physical and biological
models to investigate the effects on ecosystems, and the “nesting” of large-scale and coastal models to investigate sea-level change.
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Warming Bad – Ice Age – Coral Impact

A THC shut down would devastate coral populations—lowers key temperatures
Circulation,from local (wind-driven upwelling) to global (thermohaline) scales,is likely to change with
global climate. Virtually all coral reefs at high latitudes occur where boundary currents deliver warm waters from tropical
regions (e.g., Bermuda near the Gulf Stream, Lord Howe Island in the East Australia Current, and the Ryukyus of Japan in the
Kuroshio Current). Changes in the path or strength of these currents would impose different temperature regimes on these reefs.
There has been concern that ocean thermohaline circulation (THC) will shut down in the future due to changes in ocean
temperature and freshwater runoff (Manabe and Stouffer, 1993). Recent modeling predicts a 0–40 percent slowing of THC within
this century, but most models do not predict a complete shutdown (Gent, 2001). A slowing of THC would lead to significant
changes in oceanic circulation and upwelling patterns that could potentially affect coral reef ecosystems (Vellinga and Wood,
2002), but how THC will be affected by global climate change remains uncertain (Broecker, 2003).
Reefs are key to marine biodiversity—serves as a biological and structural

safeguard
Coral reefs,which support more biodiversity than any other marine ecosystem,also alter water energy and circulation in many near-
shore environments. This shapes other habitats and protects them from wave impact and coastal erosion. Mangrove systems, for
example, often develop in quiet near-shore environments protected by reefs and are highly productive nurseries for many important
marine species. Loss of reefs as both biological and structural entities would impoverish the marine biota and potentially reduce the
large-scale resilience of tropical and subtropical marine ecosystems.
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Warming Bad – Ice Age – Starvation Impact

Thermohaline shutdown causes mass starvation
Wallace S. Broecker, Newberry Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University, winner of the 2006
Crafoord Prize (the ‘Nobel for GeoScience), chairman of the Geochemical Society 28 November 1997 “Thermohaline Circulation,
the Achilles Heel of Our Climate System: Will Man-Made CO2 Upset the Current Balance?” Science: Vol. 278. no. 5343, pp. 1582 –
1588
Through the record kept in Greenland ice, a disturbing characteristic of the Earth's climate system has been revealed, that is, its
capability to undergo abrupt switches to very different states of operation. I say "disturbing" because there is surely a possibility that
the ongoing buildup of greenhouse gases might trigger yet another of these ocean reorganizations and thereby the associated large
atmospheric changes. Should this occur when 11 to 16 billion people occupy our planet, it could lead to widespread starvation, for in
order to feed these masses, it will be necessary to produce two to three times as much food per acre of arable land than we now do.
More problematic perhaps than adapting to the new global climate produced by such a reorganization will be the flickers in climate
that will likely punctuate the several-decade-long transition period (Fig. 3, right panel).
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Warming Bad – Ice Age – Extinction Impact

Failure of North Atlantic Current would lead to extinction
I hope never to see a failure of the northernmost loop of the North Atlantic Current, because the result would be a population crash
that would take much of civilization with it, all within a decade. Ways to postpone such a climatic shift are conceivable, however
— old-fashioned dam-and-ditch construction in critical locations might even work. Although we can't do much about everyday
weather, we may nonetheless be able to stabilize the climate enough to prevent an abrupt cooling.
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Warming Bad – India-China War

Warming Causes escalating China-India conflict- melted Tibetan glaciers cause
territorial conflicts
The melting of the Tibetan glaciers illustrates the nexus between climate change, water scarcity and geopolitics. By China’s own
estimates, the glaciers on the Tibetan plateau are melting at a rate of about 7% a year.17 Hundreds of millions of people are dependent
on the flow of glacier-fed rivers for most of their food and water needs, as well as transportation and energy from hydroelectricity.
Initially, flows may increase, as glacial run-off accelerates, causing widespread flooding. Within a few decades, however, water levels
are expected to decline, jeopardising food production and causing widespread water and power shortages with potentially adverse
consequences for India, Bangladesh, China, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam. With less fresh water available to
slake the thirst of its booming population and economy, China has redoubled its efforts to redirect the southward flow of rivers from
the water-rich Tibetan plateau to water-deficient areas of northern China. The problem is that rivers like the Mekong, Ganges,
Brahmaputra and Salween flow through multiple states. China’s efforts to rectify its own emerging water and energy problems
indirectly threaten the livelihoods of many millions of people in downstream, riparian states. Chinese dams on the Mekong are already
reducing flows to Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam. India is concerned about Chinese plans to channel the waters of
the Brahmaputra to the over-used and increasingly desiccated Yellow River. Should China go ahead with this ambitious plan, tensions
with India and Bangladesh are likely to rise, as existing political and territorial disputes18 are aggravated by concerns over water
security.
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Warming Bad – Instability

Climate change excerbates instability
In the national and international security environment, climate change threatens to add new hostile and stressing factors. On the
simplest level, it has the potential to create sustained natural and humanitarian disasters on a scale far beyond those we see today. The
consequences will likely foster political instability where societal demands exceed the capacity of governments to cope. Climate
change acts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world. Projected climate change will
seriously exacerbate already marginal living standards in many Asian, African, and Middle Eastern nations, causing widespread
political instability and the likelihood of failed states. Unlike most conventional security threats that involve a single entity acting in
specific ways and points in time, climate change has the potential to result in multiple chronic conditions, occurring globally within
the same time frame. Economic and environmental conditions in already fragile areas will further erode as food production declines,
diseases increase, clean water becomes increasingly scarce, and large populations move in search of resources. Weakened and
failing governments, with an already thin margin for survival, foster the conditions for internal conflicts, extremism, and movement
toward increased authoritarianism and radical ideologies
Climate Change Natural disasters devastate state infrastructure and stability

Natural disasters linked to climate change may prove an even greater security challenge for developing states, displacing affected
populations, calling into question the legitimacy or competence of national governments and feeding into existing ethnic or inter-
communal conflicts. In extreme cases, the survival of the nation itself may be in question. For example, the 1998 monsoon season
brought with it the worst flood in living memory to Bangladesh, inundating some 65% of the country, devastating its infrastructure
and agricultural base and raising fears about Bangladesh’s long-term future in a world of higher ocean levels and more intense
cyclones. In the absence of effective mitigation strategies, a 1m rise in sea level would flood about 17.5% of Bangladesh and much of
the Ganges river delta which is the country’s food basket.39
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Warming Bad – Malaria

Global warming increases malaria
Jaspreet Kaur, staff writer for The Med Guru, 7-14-08, “Global Warming Adds to Malaria Cases,”
http://www.themedguru.com/articles/global_warming_adds_to_malaria_cases-8616131.html
Another after-effect has been added to the already disastrous effects of global warming on the planet. Experts say that global
warming is leading to an increase in the number of malaria cases. The irreversible changes occurring in the environment are
adding fuel to the spread of the already dreaded disease. It has been found that Europe, North America and North Asia are almost
immune from the malaria threat because the temperatures are much lower in these regions. But with the rising temperatures all over
the world, this may no longer hold true. Experts believe that even a slight increase in temperature can lead to the breeding of
malaria-bearing mosquitoes. Therefore, billions of people can come under the clasp of malaria. And all these developments add
to the need of inventing a vaccine which can prevent people from contracting the disease.
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Warming Bad – Monsoons

Warming makes monsoons and El Niños more common and lethal
e63190d24817, 1377
Important components of anthropogenic climate change can be expected to be in the form of changes in
the intensity or frequency of established climate patterns illustrated by these regimes [74]. Although there
is little consistency as yet between models regarding projections of many of these patterns, recent trends
in the tropical Pacific for the surface temperature to become more El Niño-like are projected to continue
by many models. There is also evidence that warming associated with increasing greenhouse gas
concentrations will cause an intensification of the Asian summer monsoon and an increase of variability in
its precipitation. The influence of increased greenhouse gases on major climate regimes, especially the El
Niño, is an important and urgent area of research.
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Warming Bad – Oceans Module

Warming devastates ocean ecosystems- disrupts salinity, plankton, oxygen
and circulation
In terrestrial ecosystems, earlier timing of spring events and poleward and upward shifts in plant and animal ranges are with very high
confidence linked to recent warming. In some marine and freshwater systems, shifts in ranges and changes in algal, plankton and fish
abundance are with high confidence associated with rising water temperatures, as well as related changes in ice cover, salinity, oxygen
levels and circulation. {1.2} Of the more than 29,000 observational data series, from 75 studies, that show significant change in many
physical and biological systems, more than 89% are consistent with the direction of change expected as a response to warming(figure
SPM.2). However, there is a notable lack of geographic balance in data and literature on observed changes, with marked scarcity in
developing countries. {1.2, 1.3}
Collapse of ocean ecosystems ends life on Earth

Robin Kundis Craig, Associate Prof Law, Indiana U School Law, 2003, Lexis
Biodiversity and ecosystem function arguments for conserving marine ecosystems also exist, just as they do for terrestrial ecosystems,
but these arguments have thus far rarely been raised in political debates. For example, besides significant tourism values - the most
economically valuable ecosystem service coral reefs provide, worldwide - coral reefs protect against storms and dampen other
environmental fluctuations, services worth more than ten times the reefs' value for food production. n856 Waste treatment is another
significant, non-extractive ecosystem function that intact coral reef ecosystems provide. n857 More generally, "ocean ecosystems play
a major role in the global geochemical cycling of all the elements that represent the basic building blocks of living organisms, carbon,
nitrogen, oxygen, phosphorus, and sulfur, as well as other less abundant but necessary elements." n858 In a very real and direct sense,
therefore, human degradation of marine ecosystems impairs the planet's ability to support life. Maintaining biodiversity is often
critical to maintaining the functions of marine ecosystems. Current evidence shows that, in general, an ecosystem's ability to keep
functioning in the face of disturbance is strongly dependent on its biodiversity, "indicating that more diverse ecosystems are more
stable." n859 Coral reef ecosystems are particularly dependent on their biodiversity. [*265] Most ecologists agree that the
complexity of interactions and degree of interrelatedness among component species is higher on coral reefs than in any other marine
environment. This implies that the ecosystem functioning that produces the most highly valued components is also complex and that
many otherwise insignificant species have strong effects on sustaining the rest of the reef system. n860 Thus, maintaining and
restoring the biodiversity of marine ecosystems is critical to maintaining and restoring the ecosystem services that they provide. Non-
use biodiversity values for marine ecosystems have been calculated in the wake of marine disasters, like the Exxon Valdez oil spill in
Alaska. n861 Similar calculations could derive preservation values for marine wilderness. However, economic value, or economic
value equivalents, should not be "the sole or even primary justification for conservation of ocean ecosystems. Ethical arguments also
have considerable force and merit." n862 At the forefront of such arguments should be a recognition of how little we know about the
sea - and about the actual effect of human activities on marine ecosystems. The United States has traditionally failed to protect marine
ecosystems because it was difficult to detect anthropogenic harm to the oceans, but we now know that such harm is occurring - even
though we are not completely sure about causation or about how to fix every problem. Ecosystems like the NWHI coral reef
ecosystem should inspire lawmakers and policymakers to admit that most of the time we really do not know what we are doing to the
sea and hence should be preserving marine wilderness whenever we can - especially when the United States has within its territory
relatively pristine marine ecosystems that may be unique in the world. We may not know much about the sea, but we do know this
much: if we kill the ocean we kill ourselves, and we will take most of the biosphere with us.
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Warming Bad – Sea Level Rise

Warming causes ocean rise and ground instability in mountains
Observational evidence4 from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate
changes, particularly temperature increases. {1.2} Changes in snow, ice and frozen ground have with high confidence increased the
number and size of glacial lakes, increased ground instability in mountain and other permafrost regions and led to changes in some
Arctic and Antarctic ecosystems. {1.2} There is high confidence that some hydrological systems have also been affected through
increased runoff and earlier spring peak discharge in many glacier- and snow-fed rivers and through effects on thermal structure and
water quality of warming rivers and lakes. {1.2}
Warming melts ice sheets, causing massive rises in sea levels

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007 “Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical
Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf
• Contraction of the Greenland Ice Sheet is projected to continue to contribute to sea level rise after 2100. Current models suggest
that ice mass losses increase with temperature more rapidly than gains due to precipitation and that the surface mass balance
becomes negative at a global average warming (relative to pre-industrial values) in excess of 1.9°C to 4.6°C. If a negative surface
mass balance were sustained for millennia, that would lead to virtually complete elimination of the Greenland Ice Sheet and a
resulting contribution to sea level rise of about 7 m. The corresponding future temperatures in Greenland are comparable to those
inferred for the last interglacial period 125,000 years ago, when palaeoclimatic information suggests reductions of polar land ice
extent and 4 to 6 m of sea level rise. {6.4, 10.7} • Dynamical processes related to ice fl ow not included in current models but
suggested by recent observations could increase the vulnerability of the ice sheets to warming, increasing future sea level rise.
Understanding of these processes is limited and there is no consensus on their magnitude. {4.6, 10.7}
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Warming Bad – Spratly Conflict Module

Rising Oceans result in spratly conflict- territorial conflicts escalate
In Asia, rising oceans could make more difficult the resolution of disputed sovereignty claims in the Spratly Islands, a group of low-
lying atolls in the South China Sea which sit astride potentially rich deposits of oil and have already been the scene of military
tensions between and among China, Vietnam and the Philippines. Some of these islands are already partially submerged and the
highest (Southwest Cay) is only 4m above sea level.24 Beijing has challenged the island status of Okinotorishima, a small offshore
islet claimed by Japan at the southernmost part of the archipelago that is uninhabited and slowly sinking, and is the basis for Japan’s
claim to an extended EEZ. Under Article 121 of the United Nations Law of the Sea Convention, islands classified as ‘rocks’ are not
entitled to a 200 nautical mile EEZ, unless they are capable of sustaining human habitation and economic life. Japan has already
attempted to increase the size and height of Okinotorishima by planting coral around the islet, while some of the claimants to the
Spratlys have built large concrete structures grafted onto submerged, naturally occurring coral, which house small military
garrisons.25
A conflict over the Spratly Islands goes nuclear and draws in the US
Nikkei Weekly, 6-3-95, Developing Asian nations should be allowed a grace period to allow their economies to grow before being
subjected to trade liberalization demands, says Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad
Mahathir strongly opposes the use of weapons to settle international disputes. The prime minister hails the ASEAN Regional Forum as
a means for civilized nations of achieving negotiated settlement of disputes. Many members of the forum, including Malaysia, Brunei,
the Philippines and Thailand, have problems with their neighbors, but they are trying to solve them through continued dialogue, he
adds.Three scenarios Mahathir sees Asia developing in three possible ways in future. In his worst-case scenario, Asian countries
would go to war against each other, possibly over disputes such as their conflicting claims on the Spratly Islands. China might then
declare war on the U.S., leading to full-scale, even nuclear, war.
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Warming Bad – Terrorism

Climate changes guarantees global instability which snowballs into terrorism
One reason human civilizations have grown and flourished over the last five millennia is that the world’s climate has been
relatively stable. However, when climates change significantly or environmental conditions deteriorate to the point that
necessary resources are not available, societies can become stressed, sometimes to the point of collapse [1]. For those concerned
about national security, stability is a primary goal. Maintaining stability within and among nations is often a means of avoiding
full-scale military conflicts. Conversely, instability in key areas can threaten our security. For these reasons, a great deal of our
national security efforts in the post-World War II era have been focused on protecting stability where it exists and trying to instill
it where it does not. This brings us to the connection between climate change and national security. As noted, climate change
involves much more than temperature increases. It can bring with it many of the kinds of changes in natural systems that have
introduced instability among nations throughout the centuries. In this chapter, we consider some of the ways climate change can
be expected to introduce the conditions for social destabilization. The sources of tension and conflict we discuss here are
certainly not solely due to climate change; they have been discussed by the national security community for many years.
However, climate change can exacerbate many of them [2]. For example: • Some nations may have impaired access to food and
water. • Violent weather, and perhaps land loss due to rising sea levels and increased storm surges, can damage infrastructure and
uproot large numbers of people. • These changes, and others, may create large number of migrants . When people cross borders in
search of resources, tensions can arise. • Many governments, even some that look stable today, may be unable to deal with these
new stresses. When governments are ineffective, extremism can gain a foothold. • While the developed world will be far better
equipped to deal with the effects of climate change, some of the poorest regions may be affected most. This gap can potentially
provide an avenue for extremist ideologies and create the conditions for terrorism.
Climate change overwhelms governments, fostering terrorism

Many developing countries do not have the government and social infrastructures in place to cope with the types of stressors that
could be brought on by global climate change. When a government can no longer deliver services to its people, ensure domestic
order, and protect the nation’s borders from invasion, conditions are ripe for turmoil, extremism and terrorism to fill the vacuum.
Lebanon’s experience with the terrorist group Hezbollah and the Brazilian government’s attempts to reign in the slum gang First
Capital Command [12] are both examples of how the central governments’ inability to provide basic services has led to
strengthening of these extra-governmental entities.
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Warming Bad – Terrorism

Climate change creates instability—failed states, terrorism and massive
migrations exaggerate further
Anthony C Zinni General, Former Commander in Chief of the US Central Command, 2007. “On Climate Change and the
Conditions of Terrorism” published as part of the “National Security and the threat of Climate Change”
A starting point in understanding this connection might be to “look at how climate change effects could drive populations to
migrate,” Gen. Zinni said. “Where do these people move? And what kinds of conflicts might result from their migration? You see
this in Africa today with the flow of migrations. It becomes difficult for the neighboring countries. It can be a huge burden for the
host country, and that burden becomes greater if the international community is overwhelmed by these occurrences. “You may also
have a population that is traumatized by an event or a change in conditions triggered by climate change,” Gen. Zinni said. “If the
government there is not able to cope with the effects, and if other institutions are unable to cope, then you can be faced with a
collapsing state. And these end up as breeding grounds for instability, for insurgencies, for warlords. You start to see real
extremism. These places act like Petri dishes for extremism and for terrorist networks.” In describing the Middle East, the former
CENTCOM commander said, “The existing situation makes this place more susceptible to problems. Even small changes may have
a greater impact here than they may have elsewhere. You already have great tension over water. These are cultures often built
around a single source of water. So any stresses on the rivers and aquifers can be a source of conflict. If you consider land loss, the
Nile Delta region is the most fertile ground in Egypt. Any losses there could cause a real problem, again because the region is already
so fragile. You have mass migrations within the region, going on for many decades now, and they have been very destabilizing
politically.” Gen. Zinni referenced the inevitability of climate change, with global temperatures sure to increase. But he also stressed
that the intensity of those changes could be reduced if the U.S. helps lead the way to a global reduction in carbon emissions. He
urged action now, even if the costs of action seem high. “We will pay for this one way or another,” he said. “We will pay to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions today, and we’ll have to take an economic hit of some kind. Or we will pay the price later in military
terms. And that will involve human lives. There will be a human toll. “There is no way out of this that does not have real costs
attached to it. That has to hit home.”
Climate changes causes global instability, fueling terrorism

Joseph Lopez, Former Commander in Chief, US Naval Forces Europe and of Allied forced, Souther Europe, 2007. “On Climate
Change and the Conditions of Terrorism” published as part of the “National Security and the threat of Climate Change”
“Climate change will provide the conditions that will extend the war on terror,” Adm. Lopez said. “You have very real changes in
natural systems that are most likely to happen in regions of the world that are already fertile ground for extremism,” Adm. Lopez
said. “Droughts, violent weather, ruined agricultural lands—those are the kinds of stresses we’ll see more of under climate change.”
Those changes in nature will lead to changes in society. “More poverty, more forced migrations, higher unemployment. Those
conditions are ripe for extremists and terrorists.” In the controversial war on terrorism, Adm. Lopez noted, there is general
agreement on at least one thing: It’s best to stop terrorism before it develops. “In the long term, we want to address the underlying
conditions that terrorists seek to exploit. That’s what we’d like to do, and it’s a consensus issue—we all want to do that. But climate
change prolongs those conditions. It makes them worse.” “Dealing with instability and how you mitigate that leads to questions
about the role U.S. security forces can play,” Adm. Lopez added. “What can we do to alleviate the problems of instability in
advance? And keep in mind this will all be under a challenged resource situation. This is very complicated. Of course, the military
can be a catalyst for making this happen, but it can’t do it all. This is also about economics, politics, and diplomacy.
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Warming Bad – Trade Module

Warming causes flooding, disease, and hurts essential trade
CNNPolitics, 6-25-08, “Global warming could increase terrorism, official says”,
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/25/climate.change.security/index.html?eref=rss_politics#cnnSTCText
But it is also likely to result in storm surges that could affect nuclear facilities and oil refineries near coasts, water shortages in the
Southwest and longer summers with more wildfires, the study found. International migration may also help spread disease, Fingar
added, and climate change could put stress on international trade in essential commodities. "The United States depends on a smooth-
functioning international system ensuring the flow of trade and market access to critical raw materials, such as oil and gas, and
security for its allies and partners. Climate change and climate change policies could affect all of these," he warned, "with significant
geopolitical consequences."
Trade Blocks Go Nuclear

(Spicer, 1996, The Challenge from the East and the Rebirth of the West, p. 121)
More fundamentally, it will guarantee the emergence of a fragmented world in which natural fears will be fanned and inflamed.
A world divided into rigid trade blocs will be a deeply troubled and unstable place in which suspicion and ultimately envy will
possibly erupt into a major war. I do not say that the converse will necessarily be true, that in a free trading world there will be an
absence of all strife. Such a proposition would manifestly be absurd. But to trade is to become interdependent, and that is a good step
in the direction of world stability. With nuclear weapons at two a penny, stability will be at a premium in the years ahead.
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Warming Bad – War

Climate change guarantees war and nuclear proliferation as nations hunt for
resources
Peter Schwartz, president of the Global Business Network an international think tank and consulting firm, and Doug Randall, senior
practitioner at GBN with over ten years of scenario planning. October 2003 “An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its
As famine, disease, and weather-related disasters strike due to the abrupt climate change, many countries’ needs will exceed their
carrying capacity. This will create a sense of desperation, which is likely to lead to offensive aggression in order to reclaim balance.
Imagine eastern European countries, struggling to feed their populations with a falling supply of food, water, and energy, eyeing
Russia, whose population is already in decline, for access to its grain, minerals, and energy supply. Or, picture Japan, suffering from
flooding along its coastal cities and contamination of its fresh water supply, eying Russia’s Sakhalin Island oil and gas reserves as an
energy source to power desalination plants and energy-intensive agricultural processes. Envision Pakistan, India, and China – all
armed with nuclear weapons – skirmishing at their borders over refugees, access to shared rivers, and arable land. Spanish and
Portuguese fishermen might fight over fishing rights – leading to conflicts at sea. And, countries including the United States would
be likely to better secure their borders. With over 200 river basins touching multiple nations, we can expect conflict over access to
water for drinking, irrigation, and transportation. The Danube touches twelve nations, the Nile runs though nine, and the Amazon runs
through seven. In this scenario, we can expect alliances of convenience. The United States and Canada may become one, simplifying
border controls. Or, Canada might keep its hydropower—causing energy problems in the US. North and South Korea may align to
create one technically savvy and nuclear-armed entity. Europe may act as a unified block – curbing immigration problems between
European nations – and allowing for protection against aggressors. Russia, with its abundant minerals, oil, and natural gas may join
Europe. In this world of warring states, nuclear arms proliferation is inevitable. As cooling drives up demand, existing
hydrocarbon supplies are stretched thin. With a scarcity of energy supply – and a growing need for access -- nuclear energy will
become a critical source of power, and this will accelerate nuclear proliferation as countries develop enrichment and reprocessing
capabilities to ensure their national security. China, India, Pakistan, Japan, South Korea, Great Britain, France, and Germany will all
have nuclear weapons capability, as will Israel, Iran, Egypt, and North Korea.
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Warming Bad – War

Climate induced resource shortages escalate to war
Peter Schwartz, president of the Global Business Network an international think tank and consulting firm, and Doug Randall, senior
practitioner at GBN with over ten years of scenario planning. October 2003 “An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its
Violence and disruption stemming from the stresses created by abrupt changes in the climate pose a different type of threat to
national security than we are accustomed to today. Military confrontation may be triggered by a desperate need for natural
resources such as energy, food and water rather than by conflicts over ideology, religion, or national honor. The shifting
motivation for confrontation would alter which countries are most vulnerable and the existing warning signs for security threats.
There is a long-standing academic debate over the extent to which resource constraints and environmental challenges lead to inter-
state conflict. While some believe they alone can lead nations to attack one another, others argue that their primary effect is to act
as a trigger of conflict among countries that face pre-existing social, economic, and political tension. Regardless, it seems
undeniable that severe environmental problems are likely to escalate the degree of global conflict. Co-founder and President of
the Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security, Peter Gleick outlines the three most fundamental
challenges abrupt climate change poses for national security: 1. Food shortages due to decreases in agricultural production 2.
Decreased availability and quality of fresh water due to flooding and droughts 3. Disrupted access to strategic minerals due to ice
and storms In the event of abrupt climate change, it’s likely that food, water, and energy resource constraints will first be
managed through economic, political, and diplomatic means such as treaties and trade embargoes. Over time though, conflicts
over land and water use are likely to become more severe – and more violent. As states become increasingly desperate, the
pressure for action will grow.
Global warming causes nuclear conflict

The Guardian February 22, 2004 “Now the Pentagon tells Bush: climate change will destroy us”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2004/feb/22/usnews.theobserver
Climate change over the next 20 years could result in a global catastrophe costing millions of lives in wars and natural disasters.. A
secret report, suppressed by US defence chiefs and obtained by The Observer, warns that major European cities will be sunk beneath
rising seas as Britain is plunged into a 'Siberian' climate by 2020. Nuclear conflict, mega-droughts, famine and widespread rioting will
erupt across the world. The document predicts that abrupt climate change could bring the planet to the edge of anarchy as countries
develop a nuclear threat to defend and secure dwindling food, water and energy supplies. The threat to global stability vastly eclipses
that of terrorism, say the few experts privy to its contents. 'Disruption and conflict will be endemic features of life,' concludes the
Pentagon analysis. 'Once again, warfare would define human life.' The findings will prove humiliating to the Bush administration,
which has repeatedly denied that climate change even exists. Experts said that they will also make unsettling reading for a President
who has insisted national defence is a priority. The report was commissioned by influential Pentagon defence adviser Andrew
Marshall, who has held considerable sway on US military thinking over the past three decades. He was the man behind a sweeping
recent review aimed at transforming the American military under Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. Climate change 'should be
elevated beyond a scientific debate to a US national security concern', say the authors, Peter Schwartz, CIA consultant and former
head of planning at Royal Dutch/Shell Group, and Doug Randall of the California-based Global Business Network. An imminent
scenario of catastrophic climate change is 'plausible and would challenge United States national security in ways that should be
considered immediately', they conclude. As early as next year widespread flooding by a rise in sea levels will create major upheaval
for millions.
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Warming Bad – War

Global warming causes resource tensions, sparking conflict
The report explores how such an abrupt climate change scenario could potentially destabilize the geo-political environment, leading to
skirmishes, battles, and even war due to resource constraints such as: 1) Food shortages due to decreases in net global agricultural
production 2) Decreased availability and quality of fresh water in key regions due to shifted precipitation patters, causing more
frequent floods and droughts 3) Disrupted access to energy supplies due to extensive sea ice and storminess As global and local
carrying capacities are reduced, tensions could mount around the world, leading to two fundamental strategies: defensive and
offensive. Nations with the resources to do so may build virtual fortresses around their countries, preserving resources for themselves.
Less fortunate nations especially those with ancient enmities with their neighbors, may initiate in struggles for access to food, clean
water, or energy. Unlikely alliances could be formed as defense priorities shift and the goal is resources for survival rather than
religion, ideology, or national honor.
Warming leads to increased conflicts and tensions

Arthur Bright, staff writer for the Christian Science Monitor, 6-27-08, “New report highlights ties between global warming and US
security,” http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0628/p99s01-duts.html
The idea that global warming could aggravate immigration and ethnic tensions is not new. Last December, The Christian Science
Monitor reported that experts studying the relationship between security and climate are watching several hot spots around the
globe. Bangladesh, with its high population and low sea level, is a particularly noteworthy flashpoint according to experts, as
global warming could force its people to migrate into culturally proud neighboring regions. "It is the No. 1 conflict zone for
climate change," says Peter Schwartz, chairman of the Monitor Group, a research firm in San Francisco that recently released a
study on the security risks presented by climate change. That field of study is relatively new, but analysts are beginning to lay the
map of forecasted climate change over the map of political weakness to see where changes in weather could lead to volatility. No
one argues that climate change alone will lead to war. But analysts suggest that it could be a pivotal factor that tips vulnerable
regions toward conflicts. "Climate change is a threat multiplier," says Geoff Dabelko, director of the Environmental Change and
Security Program at the Woodrow Wilson Institute in Washington.
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Warming Bad – Water Wars Module

Variable Raining causes water scarcity ensuring escalating conflicts
Changes in the variability and distribution of rainfall could also exacerbate fresh-water scarcity in water-deficient states. In a world
where over 2bn people already live in countries suffering moderate to high water stress, and half the population is without adequate
sanitation or drinking water, relatively small shifts in rainfall patterns could push countries and whole regions into deficit, leading to a
series of water crises with global implications. In Asia, per capita water availability has already declined by between 40% and 65%
since 1950.15 By 2025, some 5bn people globally could be suffering from serious water shortages, half a billion of them due to
climate change.16 It is not yet possible to accurately forecast detailed precipitation changes at the national and sub-national level.
However, it is clear that countries which are already water deficient will be most at risk, as rainfall patterns shift and become more
variable
Water conflicts escalate into global nuclear war
WEINER, 1990 Prof at Princeton Department of Molecular Biology [Johnathan, The Next 100 Years: Shaping the Fate of Our
Living Earth, p. 214]
If we do not destroy ourselves with the A-Bomb and the H-Bomb, then we may destroy ourselves with the C-Bomb, the change
Bomb. And in a world as interlinked as ours, one explosion may lead to the other. Already in the Middle East, from Northern Africa
to the Persian Gulf and from the Nile to the Euphrates, tensions over dwindling water supplies and rising populations are reaching
what many experts describe as a flashpoint. A climate shift in that single battle-scarred nexus might trigger international tensions that
will unleash some of the 60,000 nuclear warheads the world has stockpiled since Trinity.
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Warming Bad – Ext. Water Wars

Global warming causes massive water shortages
With global warming, there will be substantial changes in water availability, quality and flow. On average,
some areas will become wetter and others drier. Substantial changes in variations of flow during the year
will also occur as glaciers and snow cover diminishes leading to less spring melt. Much of these changes
will exacerbate the current vulnerability regarding water availability and use. Especially vulnerable will be
continental areas where decreased summer rainfall and increased temperature result in a substantial loss
in soil moisture and increased likelihood of drought. Even greater impact is likely to occur because of
increased frequency and intensity of extremes, especially floods and droughts (see section 7.5). Such
disasters are the most damaging disasters the world experiences; on average they cause more deaths,
misery and economic loss (see section 8.8) than other disasters. They are especially damaging to
developing countries where, in general, they are more likely to occur and where there is inadequate
infrastructure to cope with them. Impacts of climate change on fresh water resources are likely to be
exacerbated by other pressures, e.g. population growth, land-use change, pollution and economic growth.
97
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Warming Bad – Wildfires Module

Warming causes wildfires
Wildfires IncreasingThe forests of Canada, Alaska and the former Soviet Union including Siberia are apparently burning like never
before, experts said at the American Geophysical Union conference in San Francisco (Dec.18, 2000). The likely reason: Global
warming is drying out northern timber and brush. As a result, lightning bolts spark infernos of colossal extent. In Alaska and Canada's
boreal forests, fire consumed an average of more than 7 million acres a year in the 1990s. That's a sharp rise from the average of 3
million acres per year in the 1960s, scientists said on the third day of the conference. See Source Article or 103************The
year 2000 was the worst U.S. wildfire season in 50 years. A replay is proving that the year 2001 is producing scorching summer
weather, again turning the Western United States into a tinderbox, where a few sparks could easily ignite a new inferno. Officials at
the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise, Idaho, say bone-dry conditions coupled with thick underbrush make for another
potential record-breaking fire season in 2001. Firestorms in 2000 scorched some 7.5 million acres — an area roughly the size of
Maryland — and cost some $1.7 billion to fight. See Article or 106 <>With wildfires come the prospect of flooding and mudslides.
The record California wildfires of October - November 2003 that destroyed 100s of thousands of forest acreage, together with
thousands of homes and businesses, promise more destruction from floods and landslides, say forest officials. See Planet Ark Story
Also See ENN Article The wildfires burning in the late summer of 2001 across the Western United States were releasing tons of
mercury into the atmosphere, say researchers from the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Hans Friedli and colleague
Lawrence Radke conducted laboratory tests to find out how much mercury a fire could release. About half the atmospheric mercury
got there from natural sources in soil, oceans and volcanoes, and the other half through human activity. Mercury is transformed in the
atmosphere through chemical processes and then rains or falls out as wet or dry deposition to the surface. For trees, "wet deposition is
most important," said Friedli. "Mercury is picked up by the surfaces - the leaves or needles - and it stays there."
The immediate impact of forest fires hurt biodiversity, crush corporations,

deplete water, and erode soil
World Wildlife Foundation 9/12/06
http://www.panda.org/about_wwf/what_we_do/forests/problems/forest_fires/index.cfm
The immediate impact of forest fires can be devastating to human communities and forest ecosystems alike. Fires can alter the
structure and composition of forests, opening up areas to invasion by fast-colonizing alien species and threaten biological diversity.
Buildings, crops and plantations are destroyed and lives can be lost. For companies, fire can mean the destruction of assets; for
communities, besides loss of an important resource base, fire can also lead to environmental degradation through impacts on water
cycles, soil fertility and biodiversity; and for farmers, fire may mean the loss of crops or even livelihoods.
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Warming Bad – Wildfires Module

Any species can be a keystone species – even resilient ecosystems are
susceptible when new species die
Perrings, 95 (Charles, Prof. at U. of NY, Biological Loss)
The contributors to this volume have argued that the fundamental goal of biodiversity conservation is not species preservation for its
own sake, but the protection of the productive potential of those ecosystems on which human activity depends. This, it has been
argued, is a function of the resilience of such ecosystems. Ecosystem resilience has been shown to be a measure of the limits of the
local stability of the self- organization of the system. Hence a system may be said to be resilient with respect to exogenous stress or
shocks of a given magnitude if it is able to respond without losing self- organization. Where species or population deletion jeopardizes
the resilience of an ecosystem providing essential services, then protection of ecosystem resilience implies species preservation. This
is not to say that we should dismiss arguments for species preservation for its own sake. The identification of existence or nonuse
value in contingent valuation exercises indicates that people do think in such terms. But it does make it clear that there is both an
economically and ecologically sound rationale for ensuring the conservation of species that are not currently in use. More particularly,
species which are not now keystone species but may become keystone species under different environmental conditions have
insurance value, and this insurance value depends on their contreibution to ecosystem resilience.
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Warming Bad – Laundry List

Global warming leads to terrorism, poverty, environmental degradation, and
more
CNNPolitics, 6-25-08, “Global warming could increase terrorism, official says”,
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/25/climate.change.security/index.html?eref=rss_politics#cnnSTCText
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Global warming could destabilize "struggling and poor" countries around the world, prompting mass
migrations and creating breeding grounds for terrorists, the chairman of the National Intelligence Council told Congress on
Wednesday. Climate change could increase flooding in coastal areas, like the flooding that hit the Philippines. Climate change "will
aggravate existing problems such as poverty, social tensions, environmental degradation, ineffectual leadership and weak political
institutions," Thomas Fingar said. "All of this threatens the domestic stability of a number of African, Asian, Central American and
Central Asian countries.” People are likely to flee destabilized countries, and some may turn to terrorism, he said. "The conditions
exacerbated by the effects of climate change could increase the pool of potential recruits into terrorist activity," he said. "Economic
refugees will perceive additional reasons to flee their homes because of harsher climates," Fingar predicted. That will put pressure on
countries receiving refugees, many of which "will have neither the resources nor interest to host these climate migrants," he said in
testimony to the House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming.
Anthropogenic warming is occurring, melting ice, raising the sea level, and will
cause 20-30% species to go extinct
Reuters, 11-17-07, Highlights of U.N. climate panel summary report, http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSL17206824
"Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean
temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level." Causes of changes "Most of the observed
increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in ... greenhouse gas
concentrations" from human activities. Annual greenhouse gas emissions from human activities have risen by 70 percent since 1970.
Concentrations of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, far exceed the natural range over the last 650,000 years. Projected climate
changes Temperatures are likely to rise by between 1.1 and 6.4 Celsius (2.0 and 11.5 Fahrenheit) and sea levels by between 18 cm and
59 cm (7 inches and 23 inches) this century. Africa, the Arctic, small islands and Asian mega-deltas are likely to be especially affected
by climate change. Sea level rise "would continue for centuries" because of the momentum of warming even if greenhouse gas levels
are stabilised. "Warming could lead to some impacts that are abrupt or irreversible". About 20-30% of species will be at increasing
risk of extinction if future temperature rises exceed 1.5 to 2.5 Celsius. Five reasons for concern Risks to unique and threatened
systems, such as polar or high mountain ecosystems, coral reefs and small islands. Risks of extreme weather events, such as floods,
droughts and heatwaves. Distribution of impacts - the poor and the elderly are likely to be hit hardest, and countries near the equator,
mostly the poor in Africa and Asia, generally face greater risks such as of desertification or floods. Overall impacts - there is evidence
since 2001 that any benefits of warming would be at lower temperatures than previously forecast and that damages from larger
temperature rises would be bigger. Risks or "large-scale singularities", such as rising sea levels over centuries; contributions to sea
level rise from Antarctica and Greenland could be larger than projected by ice sheet models.
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**WARMING BAD IMPACT CALC
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Warming Bad – Outweighs Nuclear War

Climate Change is more devastating than war and takes longer to repair
War has customarily been considered the main threat to international security because of the large number of deaths it causes and the
threat it poses to the functioning and survival of the state. Judged by these criteria, it is clear that climate change is potentially as
detrimental to human life and economic and political order as traditional military threats.57 Environmental dangers, such as climate
change, stem not from competition between states or shifts in the balance of power; rather, they are human-induced disturbances to the
fragile balance of nature. But the consequences of these disturbances may be just as injurious to the integrity and functioning of the
state and its people as those resulting from military conflict. They may also be more difficult to reverse or repair.
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Warming Bad – Impact Magnifier

Small changes cause massive effects
R. B. Alley et al, Department of Geosciences and EMS Environment Institute, Pennsylvania State University, 3/28/08,
http://us.mg2.mail.yahoo.com/dc/launch?.rand=c2lb7joi810tt
Amplifiers are abundant in the climate system and can produce large changes with minimal forcing. For example, drying causing
vegetation dormancy or death reduces the evapotranspiration that supplies moisture for a sizable fraction of the precipitation in
many continental regions, further reducing rainfall and reinforcing drought (29). In cold regions, cooling increases surface
coverage by snow and ice, increasing reflection of incoming solar radiation and causing even further cooling in an ice-albedo
feedback. These positive feedbacks may include their own sources of persistence. Loss of vegetation reduces the ability of roots to
capture water and allows subsequent precipitation to run off to streams and the oceans, perhaps leading to desertification (30). If
snowfall on land persists long enough, an ice sheet may grow sufficiently thick that its surface becomes high enough and cold
enough that melting is unlikely. Persistence also may arise from the wind-driven circulation of the oceans, stratospheric circulation
and related chemistry (31), or other processes.
Small changes have dramatic impacts

When investigating the impacts of climate change, it is natural to look first for the impacts of abrupt climate changes. An abrupt
climate change—whether warming or cooling, wetting or drying—could have lasting and profound impacts on human societies
and natural ecosystems. But it must be remembered that profound impacts are not limited to cases of abrupt climate change.
Modest changes or increased variability of climate may be sufficient to produce severe impacts, giving the false appearance that
these impacts were caused by an abrupt external forcing. Abrupt impacts result from the fact that economic and ecological
processes have adapted to specific climatic patterns and are therefore typically bounded by experience (in the case of society) or
history (in the case of ecosystems). Abrupt impacts therefore have the potential to occur when gradual climatic changes push
societies or ecosystems across thresholds and lead to profound and potentially irreversible impacts, just as slow geophysical
forcing can cross a threshold and trigger an abrupt climate change. Consider that since the nineteenth century, Grand Forks, North
Dakota, had successfully fought frequent floods up to a river stage of 49 feet. Then, in 1997, a flood crested at 54 feet and caused
catastrophic damages despite the fact that the flood crests were only 10 percent higher than the previous high. This modest
difference from typical experience was sufficient to cross an impact threshold (Pielke, 1999). Research by Pearce (2000) explored
impact thresholds for migrating species, describing problems encountered by caribou on their 1,500-km-long trek from winter
grounds in the mountains to the Arctic coastal plain in spring. Increased winter snowfall has led to delayed migration and
increased river volume. In 1999, snowfall was 50 percent above average, snow melted a month later than usual, and none of the
females in the herd made it to the coast before calving. A record low number of calves eventually reached the coast, and some
were forced to swim the Porcupine River when only a few days old. These events were observed by the native people in the area,
who were moved to reduce their traditional harvest of caribou. The size of the herd dropped from 178,000 in 1989 to 129,000 in
1999. Impacts on the migration of many other species are similarly dependent on boundaries linked to climate. The Grand Forks
floods also help demonstrate the interaction between societal decisions, perceptions of what constitutes “typical climate,” and
impact thresholds. Following the 1997 Grand Forks floods, the community decided to relocate some properties and build
additional levees to raise its threshold to catastrophic impacts. Depending on the assessment of the probabilities and consequences
of future flood levels as well as the cost and benefit of flood protection, the community could have chosen 55, 60, or 65 feet as the
elevation for the levees. Often, such decisions are made based on assumptions of past weather patterns and runoff. However, if
climate is changing, or if the underlying climate system is itself variable, decisions based on past precipitation, runoff, and flood
patterns are likely to build in thresholds that incorrectly estimate potential threats compared to decisions based on expectations that
allow for changes in climatic means or climate variability. (For more information on the flooding and response in Grand Forks and
along the Red River, see International Red River Basin Task Force, 2000.)
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Warming Bad – Timeframe

Don’t listen to their long timeframe arguments, complete global warming can
occur within 10 years.
Recent scientific evidence shows that major and widespread climate changes have occurred with startling speed. For example,
roughly half the north Atlantic warming since the last ice age was achieved in only a decade, and it was accompanied by
significant climatic changes across most of the globe. Similar events, including local warmings as large as 16°C, occurred
repeatedly during the slide into and climb out of the last ice age. Human civilizations arose after those extreme, global ice-age
climate jumps. Severe droughts and other regional climate events during the current warm period have shown similar tendencies of
abrupt onset and great persistence, often with adverse effects on societies. Abrupt climate changes were especially common when
the climate system was being forced to change most rapidly. Thus, greenhouse warming and other human alterations of the earth
system may increase the possibility of large, abrupt, and unwelcome regional or global climatic events. The abrupt changes of the
past are not fully explained yet, and climate models typically underestimate the size, speed, and extent of those changes. Hence,
future abrupt changes cannot be predicted with confidence, and climate surprises are to be expected.
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Warming Bad – Weigh Warming First

Prefer our impacts; policy-makers should focus on mitigating global warming
before other impacts.
R. B. Alley et al, J. Marotzke, W. D. Nordhaus, J. T. Overpeck, D. M. Peteet, R. A. Pielke Jr., R. T. Pierrehumbert, P. B.
Rhines, T. F. Stocker, L. D. Talley, J. M. Wallace, Department of Geosciences and EMS Environment Institute, Pennsylvania State
University, Southampton Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, Department of Economics, Yale University,
Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, University of Arizona, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University,
Institute for Space Studies, New York, Center for Science and Technology Policy Research, Cooperative Institute for Research in
Environmental Sciences, Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
and Department of Oceanography, University of Washington, Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of
Bern, The Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California-San Diego, 3/28/08,
http://us.mg2.mail.yahoo.com/dc/launch?.rand=c2lb7joi810tt
The difficulty of identifying and quantifying all possible causes of abrupt climate change, and the lack of predictability near
thresholds, imply that abrupt climate change will always be accompanied by more uncertainty than will gradual climate change.
Given the deep uncertainty about the nature and speed of future climate changes, policy-making thus must focus on reducing
vulnerability of systems to impacts by enhancing ecological and societal resiliency and adaptability. Failure of the Viking
settlements in Greenland but persistence of the neighboring Inuit during Little Ice Age cooling [e.g. (64)] underscores the value of
developing effective strategies that are favorable in the face of unanticipated abrupt climate change. Research that contributes to
identification and evaluation of "no-regrets" policies--those actions that are otherwise sensible and will improve resiliency and
adaptability--may be especially useful (2). Slowing the rate of human forcing of the climate system may delay or even avoid
crossing of thresholds
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**AFF ANSWERS
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Ice Age Frontline

1. Turn – warming causes an ice age by disrupting the THC ocean current under
Europe
Jochem Marotzke, School of Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, 2/15/00,
http://www.pnas.org/content/97/4/1347.full
Abrupt climate change may not have been merely a feature of the past but may be induced by the buildup of CO2 in the atmosphere.
Coupled model studies (23) have shown that global warming can lead to a collapse of the North Atlantic THC: Higher atmospheric
temperatures lead to a generally wetter atmosphere and hence increased moisture transport from low to high latitudes. The increased
precipitation in the North Atlantic leads to reduced surface salinity and density, interrupting deep convection and bringing the Atlantic
THC to a halt. As a consequence, northern Europe might cool even under global warming and, more alarming, this cooling might
occur much more rapidly than the gradual global warming, thus making adaptation far more difficult. The critical question is, How
close to a transition is the real climate system
2. High CO2 levels prevent another ice age for at least another 50,000 years
Andrew Weaver and Claude Hillaire-Marcel (professor at the Canadian School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, and Canadian
geoscientist of great distinction and a world leader in Quaternary research. He is known for his groundbreaking research on the
environment, climate change, and oceanography. He is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Canada, Awarded the Logan Medal, the
Geological Association of Canada's highest honour, 4/16/2004, “Global warming and the next ice age,” Science,
http://web.ebscohost.com/ehost/detail?vid=2&hid=14&sid=362c0493-3619-4e43-b8b4-
09eaa15d2a36%40sessionmgr8&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ%3d%3d#db=aph&AN=12965894).
Several modeling studies provide outputs to support this progression. These studies show that with elevated levels of carbon dioxide,
such as those that exist today, no permanent snow can exist over land in August (as temperatures are too warm), a necessary
prerequisite for the growth of glaciers in the Northern Hemisphere [e.g., ( 6)]. These same models show that if the AMO were to be
artificially shut down, there would be regions of substantial cooling in and around the North Atlantic. Berger and Loutre ( 7)
specifically noted that "most CO[sub2] scenarios led to an exceptionally long interglacial from 5000 years before the present to 50,000
years from now . . . with the next glacial maximum in 100,000 years. Only for CO[sub2] concentrations less than 220 ppmv was an
early entrance into glaciation simulated." They further argued that the next glaciation would be unlikely to occur for another 50,000
years.
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SO2 Frontline
1. Turn – Global dimming kills billions – causes droughts
David Sington (studied natural science at Cambridge, works for BBC, awarded the Walter Sullivan Award for Excellence in Science
Journalism, In 2000, he was made an Honorary member of Sigma Xi, The Scientific Research Society,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Sington - cite_note-51/13/ 2005, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4171591.stm, “Why
the sun seems to be dimming”).
Scientists are now worried that dimming, by shielding the oceans from the full power of the Sun, may be disrupting the pattern of the
world's rainfall. There are suggestions that dimming was behind the droughts in sub-Saharan Africa which claimed hundreds of
thousands of lives in the 1970s and 80s. There are disturbing hints the same thing may be happening today in Asia, home to half the
world's population. "My main concern is global dimming is also having a detrimental impact on the Asian monsoon," says Professor
Veerhabhadran Ramanathan, professor of climate and atmospheric sciences at the University of California, San Diego. "We are
talking about billions of people."
2. Even if they win SO2 cools, no impact – SO2 cooling can’t keep up with
global warming
Kaufman, Y.J et al (USRA resident scientist at NASA/ Goddard Space Flight Center, 1991, “Fossil Fuel and Biomass
Burning Effect on Climate—Heating or Cooling?” Journal of Climate, 4, 578–588, http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?
request=get-abstract&doi=10.1175%2F1520-0442(1991)004%3C0578%3AFFABBE%3E2.0.CO%3B2&ct=1).
Emission from burning offossil fuels and biomass (associated with deforestation) generates a radiative forcing on the atmosphere and
a possible climate change. Emitted trace gases heat the atmosphere through their greenhouse effect, while particulates formed from
emitted S02 cause cooling by increasing cloud albedos through alteration of droplet size distributions. This paper reviews the
characteristics of the cooling effect and applies Twomey's theory to check whether the radiative balance favors heating or cooling for
the cases of fossil fuel and biomass burning. It is also shown that although coal and oil emit 120 times as many CO2 molecules as S02
molecules, each S02 molecule is 50-1 100 times more effective in cooling the atmosphere (through the effect of aerosol particles on
cloud albedo) than a CO2 molecule is in heating it. Note that this ratio accounts for the large difference in the aerosol (3-10 days) and
CO2 (7-100 years) lifetimes. It is concluded, that the cooling effect from coal and oil burning may presently range from 0.4 to 8 times
the heating effect. Within this large uncertainty, it is presently more likely that fossil fuel burning causes cooling of the atmosphere
rather than heating. Biomass burning associated with deforestation, on the other hand, is more likely to cause heating of the
atmosphere than cooling since its aerosol cooling effect is only half that from fossil fuel burning and its heating effect is twice as
large. Future increases in coal and oil burning, and the resultant increase in concentration of cloud condensation nuclei, may saturate
the cooling effect, allowing the heating effect to dominate. For a doubling in the CO2 concentration due to fossil fuel burning, the
cooling effect is expected to be 0.1 to 0.3 of the heating effect.
3. Turn - aerosols destruct the ozone furthering global warming

NASA Facts Online (http://oea.larc.nasa.gov/PAIS/Aerosols.html, August 1996)
Aerosols also can act as sites for chemical reactions to take place (heterogeneous chemistry). The most significant of these
reactions are those that lead to the destruction of stratospheric ozone. During winter in the polar regions, aerosols grow to form
polar stratospheric clouds. The large surface areas of these cloud particles provide sites for chemical reactions to take place. These
reactions lead to the formation of large amounts of reactive chlorine and, ultimately, to the destruction of ozone in the stratosphere.
Evidence now exists that shows similar changes in stratospheric ozone concentrations occur after major volcanic eruptions, like
Mt. Pinatubo in 1991, where tons of volcanic aerosols are blown into the atmosphere (Fig. 1).
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SO2 Frontline
4. SO2 and NO causes acid rain harming the environment and even causing
death
US EPA (2007, http://www.epa.gov/oar/caa/peg/acidrain.html, “Reducing Acid Rain: Plain English Guide to the Clean Air Act”).
You have probably heard of "acid rain." But you may not have heard of other forms of acid precipitation such as acid snow, acid fog
or mist, or dry forms of acidic pollution such as acid gas and acid dust. All of these can be formed in the atmosphere and fall to Earth
causing human health problems, hazy skies, environmental problems and property damage. Acid precipitation is produced when
certain types of air pollutants mix with the moisture in the air to form an acid. These acids then fall to Earth as rain, snow, or fog.
Even when the weather is dry, acid pollutants may fall to Earth in gases or particles. How Acid Rain is Formed Burning fuels release
acid pollutants. These pollutants are carried far from their sources by wind. Depending on the weather, the acid pollutants fall to Earth
in wet form (acid rain, snow, mist or fog) or in dry form (acid gases or dusts). Sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) are the
principal pollutants that cause acid precipitation. SO2 and NOx emissions released to the air react with water vapor and other
chemicals to form acids that fall back to Earth. Power plants burning coal and heavy oil produce over two-thirds of the annual SO2
emissions in the United States. The majority of NOx (about 50 percent) comes from cars, buses, trucks, and other forms of
transportation. About 40 percent of NOx emissions are from power plants. The rest is emitted from various sources like industrial and
commercial boilers. Heavy rainstorms and melting snow can cause temporary increases in acidity in lakes and streams, primarily in
the eastern United States. The temporary increases may last for days or even weeks, causing harm to fish and other aquatic life. The
air pollutants that cause acid rain can do more than damage the environment-they can damage our health. High levels of SO2 in the air
aggravate various lung problems in people with asthma and can cause breathing difficulties in children and the elderly. In some
instances, breathing high levels of SO2 can even damage lung tissue and cause premature death.
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5. Acid Rain seriously harms forests, even killing them
USEPA (http://www.epa.gov/acidrain/effects/forests.html, “Effects of Acid Rain- Forests,” June 8th 2007).
Over the years, scientists, foresters, and others have noted a slowed growth of some forests. Leaves and needles turn brown and fall
off when they should be green and healthy. In extreme cases, individual trees or entire areas of the forest simply die off without an
obvious reason. After much analysis, researchers now know that acid rain causes slower growth, injury, or death of forests. Acid rain
has been implicated in forest and soil degradation in many areas of the eastern U.S., particularly high elevation forests of the
Appalachian Mountains from Maine to Georgia that include areas such as the Shenandoah and Great Smoky Mountain National Parks.
Of course, acid rain is not the only cause of such conditions. Other factors contribute to the overall stress of these areas, including air
pollutants, insects, disease, drought, or very cold weather. In most cases, in fact, the impacts of acid rain on trees are due to the
combined effects of acid rain and these other environmental stressors. After many years of collecting information on the chemistry and
biology of forests, researchers are beginning to understand how acid rain works on the forest soil, trees, and other plants. Acid Rain on
the Forest Floor A spring shower in the forest washes leaves and falls through the trees to the forest floor below. Some trickles over
the ground and runs into streams, rivers, or lakes, and some of the water soaks into the soil. That soil may neutralize some or all of the
acidity of the acid rainwater. This ability is called buffering capacity, and without it, soils become more acidic. Differences in soil
buffering capacity are an important reason why some areas that receive acid rain show a lot of damage, while other areas that receive
about the same amount of acid rain do not appear to be harmed at all. The ability of forest soils to resist, or buffer, acidity depends on
the thickness and composition of the soil, as well as the type of bedrock beneath the forest floor. Midwestern states like Nebraska and
Indiana have soils that are well buffered. Places in the mountainous northeast, like New York's Adirondack and Catskill Mountains,
have thin soils with low buffering capacity. How Acid Rain Harms Trees Acid rain does not usually kill trees directly. Instead, it is
more likely to weaken trees by damaging their leaves, limiting the nutrients available to them, or exposing them to toxic substances
slowly released from the soil. Quite often, injury or death of trees is a result of these effects of acid rain in combination with one or
more additional threats. Scientists know that acidic water dissolves the nutrients and helpful minerals in the soil and then washes them
away before trees and other plants can use them to grow. At the same time, acid rain causes the release of substances that are toxic to
trees and plants, such as aluminum, into the soil. Scientists believe that this combination of loss of soil nutrients and increase of toxic
aluminum may be one way that acid rain harms trees. Such substances also wash away in the runoff and are carried into streams,
rivers, and lakes. More of these substances are released from the soil when the rainfall is more acidic. However, trees can be damaged
by acid rain even if the soil is well buffered. Forests in high mountain regions often are exposed to greater amounts of acid than other
forests because they tend to be surrounded by acidic clouds and fog that are more acidic than rainfall. Scientists believe that when
leaves are frequently bathed in this acid fog, essential nutrients in their leaves and needles are stripped away. This loss of nutrients in
their foliage makes trees more susceptible to damage by other environmental factors, particularly cold winter weather.
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SO2 Answers – Ext. 1 – Dimming Bad (Starvation)

Global dimming caused by the SO2 offset effect prevents adequate rainfall-
leads to millions of deaths and starvation
Horizon (BBC program- “Global Dimming,” Jan 15, 2005, PROF VEERABHADRAN RAMANATHAN: Professor of Applied
Ocean Sciences, Distinguished Professor of Climate and Atmospheric Sciences, Director, Center for Clouds, Chemistry & Climate
(C4), Chief Scientist, Central Equatorial Pacific Experiment,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/horizon/dimming_trans.shtml).
RAMANATHAN: Basically the Global Dimming we saw in the North Indian Ocean, it was contributed on the one hand by the
particles themselves shielding the ocean from the sunlight, on the other hand making the clouds brighter. So this insidious soup,
consisting of soot, sulphates, nitrates, ash and what have you, was having a double whammy on the Global Dimming. NARRATOR:
And when he looked at satellite images, Ramanathan found the same thing was happening all over the world. Over India. Over China,
and extending into the Pacific. Over Western Europe... extending into Africa. Over the British Isles. But it was when scientists started
to investigate the effects of Global Dimming that they made the most disturbing discovery of all. Those more reflective clouds could
alter the pattern of the world's rainfall. With tragic consequences. NEWS REPORT - MICHAEL BUERK VOICE OVER: Dawn, and
as the sun breaks through the piercing chill of night on the plain outside Korum it lights up a biblical famine, now in the 20th Century.
This place say workers here is the closest thing to hell on earth. NARRATOR: The 1984 Ethiopian famine shocked the world. It was
partly caused by a decade's long drought right across sub-Saharan Africa - a region known as the Sahel. For year after year the
summer rains failed. At the time some scientists blamed overgrazing and poor land management. But now there's evidence that the
real culprit was Global Dimming. The Sahel's lifeblood has always been a seasonal monsoon. For most of the year it is completely
dry. But every summer, the heat of the sun warms the oceans north of the equator. This draws the rain belt that forms over the equator
northwards, bringing rain to the Sahel. But for twenty years in the 1970s and 80s the tropical rain belt consistently failed to shift
northwards - and the African monsoon failed. For climate scientists like Leon Rotstayn the disappearance of the rains had long been a
puzzle. He could see that pollution from Europe and North America blew right across the Atlantic, but all the climate models
suggested it should have little effect on the monsoon. But then Rotstayn decided to find out what would happen if he took the Maldive
findings into account. DR LEON ROTSTAYN (CSIRO Atmospheric Research): What we found in our model was that when we
allowed the pollution from Europe and North America to affect the properties of the clouds in the northern hemisphere the clouds
reflected more sunlight back to space and this cooled the oceans of the northern hemisphere. And to our surprise the result of this was
that the tropical rain bands moved southwards tracking away from the more polluted northern hemisphere towards the southern
hemisphere. NARRATOR: Polluted clouds stopped the heat of the sun getting through. That heat was needed to draw the tropical
rains northwards. So the life giving rain belt never made it to the Sahel. DR LEON ROTSTAYN: So what our model is suggesting is
that these droughts in the Sahel in the 1970s and the 1980s may have been caused by pollution from Europe and North America
affecting the properties of the clouds and cooling the oceans of the northern hemisphere. NARRATOR: Rotstayn has found a direct
link between Global Dimming and the Sahel drought. If his model is correct, what came out of our exhaust pipes and power stations
contributed to the deaths of a million people in Africa, and afflicted 50 million more. But this could be just of taste of what Global
Dimming has in store. PROF VEERABHADRAN RAMANATHAN: The Sahel is just one example of the monsoon system. Let me
take you to anther part of the world. Asia, where the same monsoon brings rainfall to three point six billion people, roughly half the
world's population. My main concern is this air pollution and the Global Dimming will also have a detrimental impact on this Asian
monsoon. We are not talking about few millions of people we are talking about few billions of people. NARRATOR: For
Ramanathan the implications are clear. PROF VEERABHADRAN RAMANATHAN: There is no choice here we have to cut down
air pollution, if not eliminate it altogether.
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CO2 Frontline
1. Turn - Increased CO2 alters vital growth patterns in weeds – These
alterations inherently make them more combustible and will spark wide-
spread wild fires on a scale never seen.
Tom Christopher, studied and frequently writes about horticulture for the New York times, June 29, 2008, [works cited from
Lewis Ziska, a –weed ecologist with the Agriculture Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’, L/N//E.Berggren]
The spread of cheatgrass has been widely attributed to the degradation of native grasslands by overgrazing -- cattle prefer and
selectively eat the native grasses -- and more especially to its exceptional combustibility. Periodic fires are an integral part of the
rangeland ecology, but when the rangeland is still dominated by native grasses, fires occur in some areas at average intervals of
every 60 to 110 years. In areas overrun by cheatgrass, however, fire sweeps through every three to five years. While cheatgrass
can tolerate such frequent burns, the native flora cannot. Cheatgrass's combustibility is inherent in the plant's pattern of growth.
Sprouting in the fall, it resumes growth at winter's end to mature and set seed in early summer, whereupon the plant dies, leaving
a tuft of dry, highly flammable leaves through the following dry season. Ziska and his colleagues discovered, though, that the
weed's flammability seems to have been greatly augmented by the increases in atmospheric CO2 that occurred during the period
of cheatgrass's spread through the West. The scientists grew the plant at four concentrations of CO2: at 270 p.p.m. (the ambient
level at the beginning of the 19th century, before the Industrial Revolution), at 320 p.p.m. (a 1960s level), 370 p.p.m. (a 1990s
level) and 420 p.p.m. (the approximate level predicted for 2020 in all the climate-change panel's estimates). What they found was
that an increase of CO2 equivalent to that occurring from 1800 until today raised the total mass of material (the biomass) each
cheatgrass plant produced by almost 70 percent. In addition, the composition of the cheatgrass changed as the CO2 level
increased, the tissues becoming more carbon-rich so that the plant leaves and stems are less susceptible to decay. In a natural
setting, this would mean that the dead material would persist longer, adding yet more fuel for wildfire. More fuel, with a longer
life -- Ziska says that the rise in greenhouse gases we have already achieved may have played a decisive role in the spread of a
weed that has already transformed the ecology of the Western United States. The situation seems likely to worsen too. The
cheatgrass that Ziska grew at the CO2 level equal to that projected for 2020 increased the plant's biomass by another 18 percent
above current levels. Global climate change, it seems, will further stoke the rangeland wildfires.
2. The immediate impact of forest fires hurt biodiversity, crush corporations,

deplete water, and erode soil
World Wildlife Foundation 9/12/06
http://www.panda.org/about_wwf/what_we_do/forests/problems/forest_fires/index.cfm
The immediate impact of forest fires can be devastating to human communities and forest ecosystems alike. Fires can alter the
structure and composition of forests, opening up areas to invasion by fast-colonizing alien species and threaten biological diversity.
Buildings, crops and plantations are destroyed and lives can be lost. For companies, fire can mean the destruction of assets; for
communities, besides loss of an important resource base, fire can also lead to environmental degradation through impacts on water
cycles, soil fertility and biodiversity; and for farmers, fire may mean the loss of crops or even livelihoods.
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3. Cheatgrass, a weed benefiting from the increase in CO2 has displaced food,
reduced livestock, and deterred wildlife.
The New York Times, Tom Christopher, horticultural and environmental topics 6/29/08 “Can Weeds Help Solve the Climate
Crisis?” http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/29/magazine/29weeds-t.html?pagewanted=3&_r=1&ref=magazine
According to Ziska, the steady increase in atmospheric CO2 since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution may have
already had a major impact on the growth of at least one supremely costly weed. Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum), a native
of central Asia, is believed to have been introduced into the United States accidentally, as seeds in soil used to ballast
ships or as a contaminant in agricultural seed, in the mid-1800s. Since then, its ability to flourish in dry habitats and its
prolific seed production (a single plant can bear as many as 5,000 seeds) has helped it to overrun 100 million acres of
Western rangeland, an area larger than the state of Wyoming. In doing so, cheatgrass has displaced more nutritious
native grasses, reducing the quantity of livestock a given acreage can support. Cheatgrass has also diminished the land’s
value to wildlife, which also finds the introduced plant unpalatable.
4. Turn - CO2 decreases the protein is foods such as potatoes, barley, wheat,
and rice. This devastates poor countries.
The Lempert Report (Food, Nutrition and Science) 2/25/08. “The Affect of Rising CO2 Levels on Food Nutritional Content”
http://www.foodnutritionscience.com/index.cfm/do/monsanto.article/articleId/125.cfm
Last month, our Florida report demonstrated how rising temperatures on the Earth’s surface could be negatively affecting the
quality of certain crops. Now, a Southwestern University study confirms this notion. According to the study, rising CO2
levels in the atmosphere could decrease the nutritional value of many major food crops in the years to
come. “Various studies had reported that CO2 has a large effect on crop protein concentration, or that it had little or no
effect. The value of a meta-analysis such as ours is that rather than focusing on the results of one or a few experiments, ours
comprehensively addresses the totality of the research literature. In this case, the literature as a whole clearly shows decreases
in protein concentrations for several important crops,” says Taub. The Southwestern study found that crops grown in
atmospheres containing elevated levels of carbon dioxide had significantly lower protein concentrations. Potatoes showed a 14%
decrease in protein, barley showed a 15.3% decrease, rice was down 9.9%, wheat down 9.8%, and soybeans showed
reductions of 1.4%. Crops grown at higher temperatures have a shortened life cycle, and that affects quality. Changes in
taste can be frustrating to retailers and consumers, but changes in nutritional content can be devastating –
especially to poorer communities.
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5. Rising CO2 lowers crop yield by 50% - recent study proves.
James Kloeppel, Science Editor University of Illinois at Urbana- Champaign, 6/29/06, “Food-crop yields in future greenhouse-gas
conditions lower than expected”, http://www.news.uiuc.edu/news/06/0629soyface.html ( This is a study conducted and published by 4
Professors from various universities)
Open-air field trials involving five major food crops grown under carbon-dioxide levels projected for the future are
harvesting dramatically less bounty than those raised in earlier greenhouse and other enclosed test conditions – and
scientists warn that global food supplies could be at risk without changes in production strategies.
The new findings are based on on-going open-air research at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and
results gleaned from five other temperate-climate locations around the world. According to the analysis, published in the
June 30 issue of the journal Science, crop yields are running at about 50 percent below conclusions drawn previously
from enclosed test conditions.
Results from the open-field experiments, using Free-Air Concentration Enrichment (FACE) technology, “indicate a much
smaller CO2 fertilization effect on yield than currently assumed for C3 crops, such as rice, wheat and soybeans, and possibly
little or no stimulation for C4 crops that include maize and sorghum,” said Stephen P. Long, a U. of I. plant biologist and crop
scientist.
6. Their sources aren’t qualified – Idsos are funded by oil companies

CSPI Project, 6/27/01, http://www.cspinet.org/integrity/about.html
CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF CARBON DIOXIDE AND GLOBAL CHANGE
Founded in 1998 and based in Tempe, AZ, the Center is “dedicated to discovering and disseminating scientific information
pertaining to the effects of atmospheric CO2 enrichment on climate and the biosphere.”
(http://www.co2science.org/center.htm; accessed 10/11/01)
Received $10,000 from ExxonMobil. (http://www.exxonmobil.com/contributions/public_info.html; accessed 6/27/01)
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CO2 Bad – Ext. 1 – Weeds
Weeds benefit more from CO2 enrichment – also leads to them becoming more
resistant to herbicides and harder and more expensive to control.
Tom Christopher, studied and frequently writes about horticulture for the New York times, June 29, 2008, [works cited from
Lewis Ziska, a –weed ecologist with the Agriculture Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’, L/N//E.Berggren]
Ziska, together with Bunce, has been testing the effects of changing CO2 concentrations on a range of crop and weed species.
Wending his way through a basement full of pumps, filters and boxlike aluminum growth chambers, Ziska showed himself to be
a connoisseur of atmospheres. Peering at the instrument panel outside one growth chamber, he noted a CO2 concentration of 310
p.p.m. ''That's a 1957 atmosphere, the year of my birth,'' he said. What he and his colleagues have found, he said, is that weeds
benefit far more than crop plants from the changes in CO2 and that the implications of this for agriculture and public
health are grave. Tests with common agricultural weeds like Canada thistle and quack grass found them more resistant to
herbicides when grown in higher concentrations of CO2, making them harder to control. Ziska hypothesizes that this may be a
result of faster growth; the weeds mature more rapidly, leaving behind more quickly the seedling stage during which they are
most vulnerable. This promises to be an expensive problem for farmers, who will have to spend more on chemicals and other
anti-weed measures to protect their crops. (Herbicides already cost farmers more than $10 billion annually worldwide.)
Higher CO2 levels make weeds and poison ivy grow stronger. Weeds produce
twice as much pollen and poison ivy is more virulent.
But enhancing CO2 levels, Ziska has found, not only augments the growth rate of many common weeds, increasing their size
and bulk; it also changes their chemical composition. When he grew ragweed plants in an atmosphere with 600 p.p.m. of CO2
(the level projected for the end of this century in that same climate-change panel “B2 scenario”), they produced twice as
much pollen as plants grown in an atmosphere with 370 p.p.m. (the ambient level in the year 1998). This is bad news for
allergy sufferers, especially since the pollen harvested from the CO2-enriched chamber proved far richer in the protein
that causes the allergic reaction. Poison ivy has also demonstrated not only more vigorous growth at higher levels of CO2
but also a more virulent form of urushiol, the oil in its tissue that provokes a rash.
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CO2 Bad – Ext. 1 – Weeds

Weeds benefiting from increased CO2 will change the ecology and landscapes
of much of the eastern US in the next 3 decades. It has already started.
Subsequent speakers got down to cases. Andrew McDonald, an agricultural scientist at Cornell University, had used the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s high projections for CO2 levels at the middle and end of the century to create an atlas
of potential weed migrations in cornfields in the Eastern United States. If these projections prove accurate, Kentucky, by the end of
the next one to three decades, should have a climate (and weed flora) resembling that of present-day North Carolina; by
century’s end, it will have shifted to a regime more like that of Louisiana. Delaware, over the same period, will be transformed
to something first like North Carolina and then Georgia, while Pennsylvania will metamorphose into West Virginia and then
North Carolina. Florida will become something unprecedented in this country. Field observations indicate that these
transformations are already under way: another speaker pointed out that kudzu, “the weed that ate the South,” has
already migrated up to central Illinois and by 2015 could be extending its tendrils into Michigan’s Upper Peninsula.
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CO2 Bad – Ext. 3 – Cheatgrass

Cheatgrass is combustible starting fires 20 times more often than areas
without the weed. Its increase in combustibility is directly linked to increased
CO2.
The spread of cheatgrass has been widely attributed to the degradation of native grasslands by overgrazing — cattle prefer and
selectively eat the native grasses — and more especially to its exceptional combustibility. Periodic fires are an integral part of the
rangeland ecology, but when the rangeland is still dominated by native grasses, fires occur in some areas at average intervals of
every 60 to 110 years. In areas overrun by cheatgrass, however, fire sweeps through every three to five years. While
cheatgrass can tolerate such frequent burns, the native flora cannot. Cheatgrass’s combustibility is inherent in the plant’s
pattern of growth. Sprouting in the fall, it resumes growth at winter’s end to mature and set seed in early summer,
whereupon the plant dies, leaving a tuft of dry, highly flammable leaves through the following dry season. Ziska and his
colleagues discovered, though, that the weed’s flammability seems to have been greatly augmented by the increases in
atmospheric CO2 that occurred during the period of cheatgrass’s spread through the West.
Cheatgrass has changed western United States ecology as a result of

increased CO2 and is projected to start even more wildfires than it already
does.
More fuel, with a longer life — Ziska says that the rise in greenhouse gases we have already achieved may have played a
decisive role in the spread of a weed that has already transformed the ecology of the Western United States. The situation
seems likely to worsen too. The cheatgrass that Ziska grew at the CO2 level equal to that projected for 2020 increased the
plant’s biomass by another 18 percent above current levels. Global climate change, it seems, will further stoke the
rangeland wildfires.
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CO2 Bad – Ext. 4 – Plant Protein

Increasing levels of carbon dioxide decreases nutritional value of crops –
poorer countries will suffer the most
Reuters, Reuters Source: Southwestern University (Max Taub – Assoc Prof of Bio @ SU), 01-18-08, “Rising CO2 Levels Could
Decrease the Nutritional Value of Major Food Crops”, http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS173592+18-Jan-
2008+PRN20080118
As levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere rise in the 21st century, the nutritional value of many major food crops
could decrease, according to a study conducted at Southwestern University. Max Taub, an associate professor of biology at
Southwestern, did a "meta-analysis" of previous research that had been done on the effect of increased atmospheric
carbon dioxide on the protein concentrations in barley, rice, wheat, soybean and potato. His study found that the crops
had significantly lower protein concentrations when grown in atmospheres containing elevated levels of carbon dioxide.
Potatoes showed a nearly 14 percent decrease in protein, while the grain crops of barley, rice and wheat showed reductions of
15.3 percent, 9.9 percent and 9.8 percent respectively. The protein decrease in soybeans was much lower, at 1.4 percent. "This
is just one more example of the impact global changes could have on us," Taub says. He notes that the impact will be felt the
most in poorer countries, where people rely more on plant products for protein.
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**NEG DEFENSE
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Warming Defense 1NC

1. Warming impacts will not occur
Olaf Stampf, staff writer for Spiegel Online, 5-05-07, “Not the End of the World as We Know It”
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,481684,00.html
But even this moderate warming would likely have far fewer apocalyptic consequences than many a prophet of doom would have us
believe. For one thing, the more paleontologists and geologists study the history of the earth's climate, the more clearly do they
recognize just how much temperatures have fluctuated in both directions in the past. Even major fluctuations appear to be completely
natural phenomena. Additionally, some environmentalists doubt that the large-scale extinction of animals and plants some have
predicted will in fact come about. "A warmer climate helps promote species diversity," says Munich zoologist Josef Reichholf. Also,
more detailed simulations have allowed climate researchers to paint a considerably less dire picture than in the past -- gone is the talk
of giant storms, the melting of the Antarctic ice shield and flooding of major cities. Improved regionalized models also show that
climate change can bring not only drawbacks, but also significant benefits, especially in northern regions of the world where it has
been too cold and uncomfortable for human activity to flourish in the past. However it is still a taboo to express this idea in public. For
example, countries like Canada and Russia can look forward to better harvests and a blossoming tourism industry, and the only
distress the Scandinavians will face is the guilty conscience that could come with benefiting from global warming.
2. Chinese pollution is increasing – it outweighs the aff’s gains

Cliff, Steven, atmospheric scientist at the University of California, 2006, “We are Breathing Chinese Polution”, NPQ: New
Perspectives Quarterly, Vol. 23 Issue 4, p78-79
Expanding deserts, coal-fired growth and auto emissions in China are not only threats to the health and well-being of the Chinese, but
also to that of Americans. At least one-third of the background aerosol pollution (soot, smoke and dust particles, collectively called
aerosols) in California today has floated across the Pacific from Asia, and this fraction is increasing. I collect and analyze air samples
from four sites in the Sierra Nevada and Cascade mountains, and the filters in my samplers are tracking this trend. Of California’s
annual average limit for particulate matter—12 micrograms per cubic meter of air—Asian pollution already accounts for 4–6
micrograms at these mountain sites. China’s economic boom, combined with population growth in the western United States, is bound
to push pollution levels beyond all California and US air quality standards. Oceans, we now understand, do not insulate land masses
from atmospheric conditions elsewhere. Any pollution that does not dissipate quickly will, with some variation, be transported by the
prevailing westerly winds across the Pacific Ocean in less than a week. In the springtime, which is the dry season, a dust storm in the
Gobi Desert of China and Mongolia can send a huge cloud over the US within three to five days, which then moves on to Greenland
and Europe mixed with North American pollution. One of the largest documented events of this kind happened in the spring of 2001
and was tracked by satellite. People throughout the West noted the hazy skies and asked about the location of the “fire.” In early April
of this year, satellites tracked a large carbon cloud from Chinese coal-burning smokestacks crossing the Pacific.
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3. Satellite and Balloon data indicate that warming isn’t occurring- they’re
more accurate than ground temperature
John Christy, Professor of Atmospheric Science and Director of the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama and
Alabama's State Climatologist,[C02 science magaszine, 5/28/03
Will increases in CO2 affect the climate significantly? Are significant changes occurring now? Climate models suggest the answer is
yes, real data suggest otherwise. Climate models attempt to describe the ocean/atmospheric system with equations which approximate
the processes of nature. No model is perfect because the natural system is incredibly complex. One modest goal of model
simulations is to describe and predict the evolution of the ocean/atmospheric system in a way that is useful to discover possible
environmental hazards which lie ahead. The goal is not to achieve a perfect forecast for every type of weather in every unique
geographic region, but to provide information on changes in large-scale features. If in testing models one finds conflict with even the
observed large scale features, this would suggest that at least some fundamental processes, for example heat transfer, are not
adequately described in the models. A common feature of climate model projections with CO2 increases is a rise in the global
surface temperature as well as an even more rapid rise in the layer up to 30,000 feet called the troposphere. Over the past 24+ years
various calculations of surface temperature indeed show a rise of about 0.7 °F. This is roughly half of the total rise observed since
the 19th century. In the lower troposphere, however, various estimates which include the satellite data Dr. Roy Spencer of UAH and
I produce, show much less warming, about 0.3 °F - an amount less than half that observed at the surface. The real world shows less
warming in the atmosphere, not more as models predict. Are these data reliable? A new version of the microwave satellite data has
been produced, but not yet published, by Remote Sensing Systems or RSS of California. Two weeks ago a paper was published in
Science magazine' electronic edition which used a curious means of testing our UAH version against RSS.[1] The paper cited climate
model results which agreed more with RSS, because RSS data showed about 0.4°F more warming than UAH's data for this same layer
called the mid-troposphere. UAH's total warming for this layer was about 0.05°F. (This layer is higher in the atmosphere than the
lower troposphere mentioned earlier with its 0.3°F warming.) The strong implication of the paper was that since RSS was more
consistent with the model output, it was likely a more accurate dataset than ours. That same week, with much less fanfare, my latest
paper appeared in the Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology.[2] Unlike the paper in Science magazine, I performed
several rigorous tests to estimate the potential error of our UAH satellite data. I used real observations from balloon datasets
created by independent organizations, some with data from as many as 400 different balloon stations. Our UAH satellite data
and the balloon data corroborated each other with remarkable consistency, showing only a slow warming of the bulk of the
atmosphere. This evidence indicates that the projected warming of the climate model had little consistency with the real world. This
is important because the quantity examined here, lower tropospheric temperature, is not a minor aspect of the climate system.
This represents most of the bulk mass of the atmosphere, and hence the climate system. The inability of climate models to
achieve consistency on this scale is a serious shortcoming and suggests projections from such models be viewed with great
skepticism. Changes in surface temperature have also been a topic of controversy. The conclusion in IPCC 2001 that human
induced global warming was clearly evident was partly based on a depiction of the Northern Hemisphere temperature since 1000
A.D. This depiction showed little change until about 1850, then contains a sharp upward rise, suggesting that recent warming was
dramatic and linked to human effects.[3] Since IPCC 2001, two important papers have shown something else.[4] Using a wider range
of information from new sources these studies now indicate large temperature swings have been common in the past 1000 years
and that temperatures warmer than today's were common in 50-year periods about 1000 years ago. These studies suggest that the
climate we see today is not unusual at all.
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4. Models are not scientific and nowhere near as reliable as actual data
University of Alabama (“Comparing satellite & balloon climate data corroborates slower rate of global warming”, 5/14/2003,
http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=11540).
Many climate models forecast that global warming should be happening at a rate much faster than that seen by either the UAH
satellite dataset or the weather balloon data. "But models don't provide scientific measurements," Christy said. "Climate models can
be valuable for many scientific purposes, but models and their output shouldn't be confused with data or used as a standard for
validating real data. "If you have reliable data that disagree with a computer model, it's time to find out what's wrong with the model.
To do anything else might lead you to conclude that your theories are correct and the real world is wrong."
5. Volcanoes and mysterious forces cool the earth- prefer our evidence, it’s
based on observations not flawed models
Physorg, Science Physics Tech Nano News, 4-12-05 Mystery Climate Mechanism May Counteract Global Warming
http://www.physorg.com/news3694.html
A new study by two physicists at the University of Rochester suggests there is a mechanism at work in the Earth’s atmosphere that
may blunt the influence of global warming, and that this mechanism is not accounted for in the computer models scientists currently
use to predict the future of the world’s temperature. The researchers, David H. Douglass and Robert S. Knox, professors of physics,
plotted data from satellite measurements of the Earth’s atmosphere in the months and years following the volcanic eruption of Mount
Pinatubo in 1991. The results, published in an upcoming issue of Geophysical Research Letters (and now online), show that global
temperatures dropped more and rebounded to normal significantly faster than conventional climate models could have predicted. “All
we did was chart the data,” says Douglass. “We can be confident that our numbers are accurate because we aren’t using computer
models and assumptions; we’re using simple observations. Despite whatever models might say, the analysis of the actual data says
that the atmosphere rebounded from the Pinatubo volcano much faster than was expected.” In addition, the analysis of Douglass and
Knox showed that the amount of the cooling measured could be explained only if there was some mechanism producing a kind of self-
correcting feedback. In other words according to Douglass “ This feedback mechanism prevented the Earth from becoming much
colder.” In an attempt to approach the climate warming issue from a data-centered, rather than model-centered, way, Douglass and
Knox looked for a global temperature-changing event that was well-recorded and did not occur at the same time as other events, such
as El Nino or particularly high solar activity. They found their candidate in the Mount Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines, the largest
volcanic eruption in the 20th century. The volcano forced millions of tons of debris into the Earth’s atmosphere, which blocked some
of the Sun’s heat from reaching the Earth. The average temperature of the world dropped more than half a degree immediately
following the eruption.
6. Warming isn’t anthropogenic – 31,000 scientists agree

Victoria Hardy, The American Chronicle, 6/26/08, The Global Warming Scam, http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/66237
Others are beginning to step forward and 31,000 scientists have signed a petition rejecting global warming. The petition states, "There
is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the
foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere and disruption of the Earth's climate. Moreover, there is
substantial scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant and
animal environments of the Earth." The scientists signing the petition consist of 9,021 Ph.D.s, 6,961 at the master's level, 2,240
medical doctors and 12,850 carrying a Bachelor of Science or equivalent academic degree. According to research professor of
chemistry Art Robinson, "Mr. Gore's movie contains many very serious incorrect claims which no informed, honest scientist could
endorse." World Net Daily
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Ext. 1 – No Impact
Global warming won’t lead to their impacts, and it’s inevitable anyway
The truth is probably somewhere between these two extremes. Climate change will undoubtedly have losers -- but it will also have
winners. There will be a reshuffling of climate zones on earth. And there is something else that we can already say with certainty: The
end of the world isn't coming any time soon. Largely unnoticed by the public, climate researchers are currently embroiled in their own
struggle over who owns the truth. While some have always seen themselves as environmental activists aiming to shake humanity out
of its complacency, others argue for a calmer and more rational approach to the unavoidable. One member of the levelheaded camp is
Hans von Storch, 57, a prominent climate researcher who is director of the Institute for Coastal Research at the GKSS Research
Center in Geesthacht in northern Germany. "We have to take away people's fear of climate change," Storch told DER SPIEGEL in a
recent interview (more...). "Unfortunately many scientists see themselves too much as priests whose job it is to preach moralistic
sermons to people." Keeping a cool head is a good idea because, for one thing, we can no longer completely prevent climate change.
No matter how much governments try to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, it will only be possible to limit the rise in global
temperatures to about 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century.
Global warming isn’t something to worry about - the earth goes through cycles
of cooling and warming due to oceanic influence on global temperatures.
Patrick J. Michaels, senior fellow in environmental studies at the Cato Institute, May 16, 2008, Global-warming myth; Politics
trumps science, Database: NexisLexis.
The Keenlyside team found that natural variability in the Earth's oceans will "temporarily offset" global warming from carbon dioxide.
Seventy percent of the Earth's surface is oceanic; hence, what happens there greatly influences global temperature. It is now known
that both Atlantic and Pacific temperatures can get "stuck," for a decade or longer, in relatively warm or cool patterns. The North
Atlantic is now forecast to be in a cold stage for a decade, which will help put the damper on global warming. Another Pacific
temperature pattern is forecast not to push warming, either.
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Ext. 2 – No Solvency – China

China’s demand for oil usurping oil supply
Paul Krugman, Prof of Economics and International affairs @Princeton University, Columnist-NY Times, 01/04/2008, NY
Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/04/opinion/04krugman.html?_r=3&ref=opinion&oref=slogin&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
Almost all the foreign policy talk in this presidential campaign has been motivated, one way or another, by 9/11 and the war in
Iraq. Yet it’s a very good bet that the biggest foreign policy issues for the next president will involve the Far East rather than
the Middle East. In particular, the crucial questions are likely to involve the consequences of China’s economic growth. Turn
to any of several major concerns now facing America, and in each case it’s startling how large a role China plays. Start with
the soaring price of oil. Unlike the oil crises that followed the Yom Kippur War and the overthrow of the shah of Iran, this
crisis wasn’t caused by events in the Middle East that disrupted world oil supply. Instead, it had its roots in Asia. It’s true that
the global supply of oil has been growing sluggishly, mainly because the world is, bit by bit, running out of the stuff: big oil
discoveries have become rare, and when oil is found, it’s harder to get at. But the reason oil supply hasn’t been able to keep
up with demand is surging oil consumption in newly industrializing economies — above all, in China. Even now, China
accounts for about only 9 percent of the world’s demand for oil. But because China’s oil demand has been rising along with
its economy, in recent years China has been responsible for about a third of the growth in world oil consumption. As a
result, oil at $100 a barrel is, in large part, a made-in-China phenomenon.
China necessary for solution to warming

Paul Krugman, Prof of Economics and International affairs @Princeton University, Columnist-NY Times, 01/04/2008, NY
Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/04/opinion/04krugman.html?_r=3&ref=opinion&oref=slogin&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
Why is climate change a China issue? Well, China is already, by some estimates, the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse
gases. And as with oil demand, China plays a disproportionate role in emissions growth. In fact, between 2000 and 2005
China accounted for more than half the increase in the world’s emissions of carbon dioxide. What this means is that any
attempt to mitigate global warming will be woefully inadequate unless it includes China. Indeed, back in 2001, when he
reneged on his campaign promise to limit greenhouse gas emissions, President Bush cited the fact that the Kyoto treaty didn’t
include China and India as an excuse for doing nothing. But the real problem is how to make China part of the solution.
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Ext. 2 – No Solvency – Positive Feedbacks

They can’t solve- Positive feedbacks overwhelm the aff
Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise would continue for centuries due to the time scales associated with climate processes and
feedbacks, even if GHG concentrations were to be stabilised. {3.2.3} Estimated long-term (multi-century) warming corresponding to
the six AR4 Working Group III stabilisation categories is shown in Figure SPM.8. Contraction of the Greenland ice sheet is projected
to continue to contribute to sea level rise after 2100. Current models suggest virtually complete elimination of the Greenland ice sheet
and a resulting contribution to sea level rise of about 7m if global average warming were sustained for millennia in excess of 1.9 to
4.6°C relative to pre-industrial values. The corresponding future temperatures in Greenland are comparable to those inferred for the
last interglacial period 125,000 years ago, when palaeoclimatic information suggests reductions of polar land ice extent and 4 to 6m of
sea level rise. {3.2.3}
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Ext. 2 – No Solvency – Warming Rates Too High

Carbon emissions are out of control, even a 70% decrease would not stop
rising temperatures
Shermer, Michael, 2006, “The Flipping Point” Scientific American, Vol. 294 Issue 6, p28
It is a matter of the Goldilocks phenomenon. In the last ice age, CO2 levels were 180 parts per million (ppm)—too cold. Between the
agricultural revolution and the industrial revolution, levels rose to 280 ppm—just right. Today levels are at 380 ppm and are projected
to reach 450 to 550 by the end of the century—too warm. Like a kettle of water that transforms from liquid to steam when it changes
from 99 to 100 degrees Celsius, the environment itself is about to make a CO2-driven flip. According to Flannery, even if we reduce
our carbon dioxide emissions by 70 percent by 2050, average global temperatures will increase between two and nine degrees by
2100. This rise could lead to the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which the March. 24 issue of Science reports is already shrinking
at a rate of 224 ±41 cubic kilometers a year, double the rate measured in 1996 (Los Angeles uses one cubic kilometer of water a year).
If it and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet melt, sea levels will rise five to 10 meters, displacing half a billion inhabitants.
No solvency: If we stopped all emissions of greenhouse gases today it would

taken centuries for them to decline
Hillman, Mayer and Fawcett, Tina, 2007, The Suicidal Planet: How To Prevent Global Climate Catastrophe, pg. 25-26
The effects of climate change cannot quickly be reversed by reducing or even eliminating future emissions of greenhouse gases. There
are two reasons for this. First, greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere linger for decades (in the case of relatively short-lived
gases like methane), or hundreds of years (for carbon dioxide), or even thousands of years (for the long-lived gases like per-
fluorocarbons). Carbon dioxide and methane concentrations in the atmosphere are respectively one-third and more than twice as high
as those at any time over the last 650,000 years. Even if no additional carbon dioxide were emitted from now on, atmospheric
concentrations would take centuries to decline to pre-Industrial Revolution levels. While elevated levels of greenhouse gases remain in
the atmosphere, additional warming will occur.
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Ext. 3 – Warming Doesn’t Exist

There is no global warming; evidence backing claims of rising temperature
were based on El Nino’s effects.
Patrick J. Michaels, December 31, 1998, professor of environmental science at the University of Virginia, is a senior fellow in
environmental studies at the Cato Institute., Long Hot Year: Latest Science Debunks Global Warming Hysteria,
http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=1188.
The national media have given tremendous play to the claims of Vice President Al Gore, some federal scientists, and environmental
activists that the unseasonably warm temperatures of this past summer were proof positive of the arrival of dramatic and devastating
global warming. In fact, the record temperatures were largely the result of a strong El Niño superimposed on a decade in which
temperatures continue to reflect a warming that largely took place in the first half of this century.
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Ext. 4 – Models Bad

Climate models are unreliable – no way to make long-term predictions about
climate
Christopher Walter Monckton, Viscount Monckton of Brenley and British policy adviser, former adviser to Margaret Thatcher, 7-
19-07, “Consensus? What Consensus? Among Climate Scientists, Debate Not Over,”
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/monckton_papers/consensus_what_consensus_among_climate_scientists_the_debate_is_not_over/p
age-2.html
Sir John somehow fails to mention Lorenz (1963), who, in the landmark paper that founded the science of chaos theory, a
major new branch of mathematics, propounded and proved the theorem that the long-run evolution of any “complex, non-
linear, chaotic object” (IPCC, 2001) such as climate cannot be predicted unless one knows the initial state of the climate
at any chosen instant (T0) to a degree of precision that is not attainable when studying the climate. Here is Lorenz’s
conclusion –
“When our results concerning the instability of non-periodic flow are applied to the atmosphere, which is ostensibly non-
periodic, they indicate that prediction of the sufficiently distant future is impossible by any method, unless the present
conditions are known exactly. In view of the inevitable inaccuracy and incompleteness of weather observations, precise,
very-long-range weather forecasting would seem to be non-existent.”
And climate, of course, is very-long-range weather. Recently another scientist has considered the limitations upon climatic
prediction with some care. Giorgi (2005) defines two types of prediction:
“In the late 1960s and mid 1970s the chaotic nature of the climate system was first recognized. Lorenz defined two types of
predictability problems:
1) Predictability of the first kind, which is essentially the prediction of the evolution of the atmosphere, or more generally the
climate system, given some knowledge of its initial state. Predictability of the first kind is therefore primarily an initial-value
problem, and numerical weather prediction is a typical example of it.
2) Predictability of the second kind, in which the objective is to predict the evolution of the statistical properties of the climate
system in response to changes in external forcings. Predictability of the second kind is thus essentially a boundary-value
problem.”
Giorgi explains:
“… Because of the long time scales involved in ocean, cryosphere and biosphere processes a first-kind predictability
component also arises. The slower components of the climate system (e.g. the ocean and biosphere) affect the statistics of
climate variables (e.g. precipitation) and since they may feel the influence of their initial state at multi-decadal time scales,
it is possible that climate changes also depend on the initial state of the climate system … For example, the evolution of the
thermohaline circulation in response to greenhouse-gas forcing can depend on the initial state of the thermohaline circulation,
and this evolution will in general affect the full climate system. As a result, the climate change prediction problem has
components of both first and second kind which are deeply intertwined. … The relevance of the first-kind predictability aspect
of climate change is that we do not know what the initial conditions of the climate system were at the beginning of the
‘industrialization experiment’ and this adds an element of uncertainty to the climate prediction.”
Giorgi also points out that the predictability of a mathematical object such as climate is adversely affected by non-linearity:
“A system that responds linearly to forcings is highly predictable, i.e. doubling of the forcing results in a doubling of the
response. Non-linear behaviors are much less predictable and several factors increase the non-linearity of the climate system
as a whole, thereby decreasing its predictability.”
Climatic prediction is, as Lorenz said it was, an initial-state problem. It is also a boundary-value problem. It is also a non-
linearity problem. It is also a problem whose evolutionary processes are insufficiently understood. When studying the
climate we are in the same predicament as Christopher Columbus. When he set out for the Americas, he did not know where he
was going; on the way there, he did not know what route he was following; when he got there he did not know where he was;
when he returned he did not know where he had been; and, like very nearly every climate scientist worldwide, he did the whole
thing on taxpayers’ money.
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Ext. 4 – Models Bad
Climate change models are inadequate because of dimming

David Adam, (“Goodbye Sunshine,” staff writer for the Gaurdian, Farquhar (mentioned in article) is a climate scientist at the
Australian National University in Canberra, Dec 18, 2003, http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2003/dec/18/science.research1).
The other major impact global dimming will have is on the complex computer simulations climate scientists use to understand what is
happening now and to predict what will happen in the future. For them, global dimming is a real sticking point. "All of their models,
all the physics and mathematics of solar radiation in the Earth's atmosphere can't explain what we're measuring at the Earth's surface,"
Stanhill says. Farquhar agrees: "This will drive what the modellers have to do now. They're going to have to account for this."
Local and Regional Models fail- neglect global climate changes

e63190d24817, 1377
7.4. Regional climate models Most of the regional changes mentioned so far have been on the scale of
continents; these can be studied with general circulation models of the kind described in section 6. For
studies on smaller scales, however, such models possess severe limitations arising from the coarse size of
their horizontal grid—typically 300 km. To overcome these limitations, regional climate models (RCMs)
have been introduced with much higher resolution, typically about 50 km. They cover a limited region and
are ‘nested’ in a global circulation model that defines the varying boundary conditions at the edges of an
RCM. They have achieved considerable success in providing simulations of regional detail and extremes,
especially for precipitation. However, it is important to realize that, because of the greater natural
variability apparent in local climate compared with climate averaged over continental scales, climate
change projections on local and regional scales are bound to be more uncertain than those on larger
scales.
Models empirically fail to predict climate events

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Sir John’s critique of the programme would have been more intellectually honest if he had acknowledged this difficulty. As to
his confident assertion that the models are now successfully reproducing all relevant climate events, the models failed to
predict the unusual amplitude of the 1998 El Nino event; the 2004 hurricane season that culminated in Hurricane Katrina;
the global cooling of the oceans that occurred from 2003 to 2005 (Lyman et al., 2006); the exceptional lengthening of the
current solar cycle, which should have ended in 2006 but is not now expected to end for a further year; the sudden cessation
of the previously-monotonic increase in atmospheric methane that occurred five years ago; the cooling of much of
Antarctica over the past 30 years; and the stabilization of world temperatures, which have shown no global increase since
the UN’s previous report in 2001. It was only after much rewriting of the software that they managed to provide an ex-
post-facto representation of the global fall in temperatures between 1940 and 1975. Given these serious, serial failures
even on an intra-decadal timescale, and given Lorenz’s proof of the impossibility of long-range climatic prediction, rather
more humility in making claims for the skill of the general-circulation climate models would have been more
intellectually honest.
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Ext. 4 – Models Bad – IPCC Specific

IPCC models fail- don’t account for urban heat island effect
P. D. Jones, member of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia at Norwich in the U.K., 2005,
“Global Warming: A fraudulent notion based on corrupted data” accessed via http://www.warwickhughes.com/climate/
Ever since the beginning of the greenhouse scare, astute observers have suspected that urban heat was responsible for a large slice of
the purported warming. The IPCC has stonewalled, telling policymakers that the urban heat island issue has "...been taken account
of." This site proves the contrary. There is simply no systematic compensation for urban warming in the Jones dataset.
Occasionally there is a slight adjustment in a record for a site change or other anomaly but the majority of records are used “raw”.
This applies even to large cities with large, documented heat islands – e.g. Los Angeles, Chicago, Sydney, Johannesburg etc. etc. In
recent years, two independent remote sensing methods – nightlight pictures and infrared heat imaging – have clarified the extent of
urban heat islands. Their evidence is incontrovertible. Nightlight images show that the bulk of CRU’s records come from lit areas of
the surface. Infrared imaging shows that many are from cities with huge heat islands – enough to raise the annual average temperature
by 2-3 degrees Celsius compared to the surrounding countryside. The problem should have been obvious all along. The UHI was first
identified in London 200 years ago, and many studies have shown that it can raise the temperature even in small towns. But
political correctness, a desire not to "rock the boat", the corrupting influence of "greenhouse funding" on the science and sheer wishful
thinking have made the urban heat island a tabu subject in the greenhouse debate. This site breaks that tabu. It turns the spotlight on
individual city records included in the CRU dataset, and also examines the CRU results for various "grid cells" across the globe. It
leaves no doubt that the CRU temperature graphs are contaminated with pervasive and substantial urban heat which has
nothing to do with greenhouse gases. Satellite images of night lights have been published by NASA and give a good indication of
the location of urban areas over the entire earth. Taking the same midwest USA area as the Infra Red image above, this is a small
preview of how the Jones / IPCC temperature stations are dominantly located in urban regions. The IPCC tell policymakers that the
urban heat island issue has "...been taken account of.." Sure, we can see that, their data is collected mainly from UHI areas. Follow
the Earthlights link for larger images of the USA with Jones stations located. See "City reviews" link at left for UHI contamination
in Chicago compared to more rural neighboring stations. Below is a classic example of century long growth in small town UHI
contamination from the region shown above:
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Ext. 5 – Negative Feedback – Aerosols

Anthropogenic aerosols produce a direct cooling effect and an indirect cloud
cover effect, contributing to negative feedback systems
IPCC ’07, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, group dedicated to studying climate change under the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO) and United Nations Environment Programme Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science
Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, p. 4
Anthropogenic contributions to aerosols (primarily sulphate, organic carbon, black carbon, nitrate and dust) together
produce a cooling effect, with a total direct radiative forcing of –0.5 [–0.9 to –0.1] W m–2 and an indirect cloud albedo
forcing of –0.7 [–1.8 to –0.3] W m–2. These forcings are now better understood than at the time of the TAR due to
improved in situ, satellite and ground-based measurements and more comprehensive modelling, but remain the dominant
uncertainty in radiative forcing. Aerosols also influence cloud lifetime and precipitation.
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Ext. 5 – Negative Feedback – Clouds

Cloud cover provides a significant reduction in temperature
Dr. David M. Chapman, May 2006, Honorary Associate, School of Geosciences, University of Sydney. “Global Warming, are we
hiding behind a smokescreen?” Geodate, Vol. 19 Issue 2, p6-8, 3p
Significant growth in (jet) air traffic in the past 50 years has increased cover by high-level cirrus clouds developing from
aircraft condensation trails or contrails, which may have led to some reduction in GI. The impact of contrails on temperature
was demonstrated when, in the aftermath of the terrorist incident in New York on September 9, 2001, [when] all commercial
aircraft in the US were grounded for three days: the average diurnal temperature range over the contiguous US increased by
1.1 degrees Celsius over the period (Travis, et al, 2002).
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Ext. 5 – Negative Feedback – Bering Strait

Currents in the Bering Strait produce plankton that absorb CO2 – act as a
negative feedback
Tim Reid, climate writer for Nature journal, 10-21-07, “Global warming feedback: Bering the responsibility,”
http://www.nature.com/nchina/2007/071121/full/nchina.2007.248.html
The narrow, shallow Bering Strait is the only channel through which heat, nutrients and freshwater are transported from the
Pacific to the Arctic Ocean. Liqi Chen and Zhongyong Gao at the State Oceanic Administration in Xiamen have discovered
that this current could have a crucial role in maintaining the global balance of carbon dioxide1.
The researchers measured nutrient, chlorophyll and carbon dioxide levels in the surface waters of the Bering Sea and western
Arctic Ocean during the first and second Chinese National Arctic Research Expeditions in the summers of 1999 and 2003 (see
image for their routes). They found evidence that some phytoplankton blooms in the Arctic are directly caused by
nutrient-rich water flowing through the Bering Strait. The Chukchi Sea, which is to the north of the Bering Strait,
appears to act as a carbon dioxide sink during summer, owing to the increased amount of open water produced from
rapid sea-ice melting.
If the ice-free summers in the Arctic become longer with global warming, the northward flow through the Bering Strait
is expected to grow stronger. This would lead to higher levels of phytoplankton in the Arctic, resulting in a stronger
'biological pump' removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Therefore, the current could act as negative feedback
on global warming.
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Ext. 6 – Warming Not Anthropogenic

Warming can be explained by the moderate warming cycle and the urban heat
island effect
Dennis T. Avery, a Senior Fellow for the Hudson Institute in Washington, DC and is the Director for the Center for Global Food
Issues, 6/9/08, Thermometers are Doing the Talking, (http://www.cgfi.org/2008/06/09/thermometers-are-doing-the-talking-by-dennis-
t-avery/
Unless the planet starts warming again, quickly and significantly, the Green momentum for a low-carbon society will come to a
screeching stop. There are many indications that we are in a long, moderate warming cycle, which began 150 years ago with the end
of the Little Ice Age, and may continue for several more hundred years. There is no indication that this modest warming will be bad
for humans, or for the wildlife. The thermometers show a net global temperature increase of just 0.2 degree C since 1940 —and even
that tiny increase has been inflated by the urban heat island effect.
Global warming is caused by solar cycles, not man

Noah Shachtman, 6-3-08, “Army: Sun, Not Man, Is Causing Climate Change,” http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/06/army-vs-
global.html
The Army is weighing in on the global warming debate, claiming that climate change is not entirely man-made. Instead, Dr. Bruce
West, with the Army Research Office, argues that "changes in the earth’s average surface temperature are directly linked to ...
the short-term statistical fluctuations in the Sun’s irradiance and the longer-term solar cycles."
The anthropogenic impact on warming is overestimated

Noah Shachtman, 6-3-08, “Army: Sun, Not Man, Is Causing Climate Change,” http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/06/army-vs-
global.html
West faults the IPCC and other scientific groups have "conclude[d] that the contribution of solar variability to global warming is
negligible." He argues that these groups have done a poor job modeling the Sun's impact, however, and that's why they have
"significantly over-estimated" the "anthropogenic contribution to global warming."
Current humans don’t cause warming – earth has been warming for 8000 years
William E. Ruddiman, professor emeritus, environmental science, UVA, March ’05, “How Did Humans First Alter Global
Climate?”, Scientific American, http://www.if.uidaho.edu/~johnson/ifiwrri/SciAmGlobal.pdf
New evidence suggests that concentrations of CO2 started rising about 8,000 years ago, even though natural trends indicate
they should have been dropping. Some 3,000 years later the same thing happened to methane, another heat-trapping gas.
The consequences of these surprising rises have been profound. Without them, current temperatures in northern parts of
North America and Europe would be cooler by three to four degrees Celsius--enough to make agriculture difficult. In
addition, an incipient ice age--marked by the appearance of small ice caps--would probably have begun several thousand
years ago in parts of northeastern Canada. Instead the earth's climate has remained relatively warm and stable in recent
millennia. Until a few years ago, these anomalous reversals in greenhouse gas trends and their resulting effects on climate had
escaped notice. But after studying the problem for some time, I realized that about 8,000 years ago the gas trends stopped
following the pattern that would be predicted from their past long-term behavior, which had been marked by regular
cycles. I concluded that human activities tied to farming--primarily agricultural deforestation and crop irrigation-must have
added the extra CO2 and methane to the atmosphere. These activities explained both the reversals in gas trends and the
ongoing increases right up to the start of the industrial era. Since then, modern technological innovations have brought
about even faster rises in greenhouse gas concentrations.
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Ext. 6 – Warming Not Anthropogenic

Warming isn’t human-caused – it’s caused by natural cycles
In recent years, cores of ice drilled in the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets have provided extremely valuable evidence
about the earth's past climate, including changes in the concentrations of the greenhouse gases. A three-kilometer-long ice
core retrieved from Vostok Station in Antarctica during the 1990s contained trapped bubbles of ancient air that revealed the
composition of the atmosphere (and the gases) at the time the ice layers formed. The Vostok ice confirmed that concentrations
of CO 2 and methane rose and fell in a regular pattern during virtually all of the past 400,000 years. Particularly
noteworthy was that these increases and decreases in greenhouse gases occurred at the same intervals as variations in
the intensity of solar radiation and the size of the ice sheets. For example, methane concentrations fluctuate mainly at
the 22,000-year tempo of an orbital cycle called precession. As the earth spins on its rotation axis, it wobbles like a top,
slowly swinging the Northern Hemisphere closer to and then farther from the sun. When this precessional wobble brings
the northern continents nearest the sun during the summertime, the atmosphere gets a notable boost of methane from its
primary natural source--the decomposition of plant matter in wetlands. After wetland vegetation flourishes in late summer, it
then dies, decays and emits carbon in the form of methane, sometimes called swamp gas. Periods of maximum summertime
heating enhance methane production in two primary ways: In southern Asia, the warmth draws additional moisture-laden
air in from the Indian Ocean, driving strong tropical monsoons that flood regions that might otherwise stay dry. In far northern
Asia and Europe, hot summers thaw boreal wetlands for longer periods of the year. Both processes enable more vegetation
to grow, decompose and emit methane every 22,000 years. When the Northern Hemisphere veers farther from the sun,
methane emissions start to decline. They bottom out 11,000 years later--the point in the cycle when Northern Hemisphere
summers receive the least solar radiation.
Warming caused by natural cycles – scientists agree

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It is inappropriate for Sir John to declare that it is NOT TRUE that solar influences are the main driver of global average
temperature in the 20th century. The IPCC says no more than that at least half of the temperature increase of the past
half century is anthropogenic: it specifically does not say that solar influences were not the main climatic driver before
that. Furthermore, there is a growing body of dissenting voices in the peer-reviewed literature who declare that solar
influence is the main temperature driver.
For instance, Zhen-Shan and Xian (2007) explicitly state that CO2 forcing contributes less to temperature change than
natural climate variability, that the anthropogenic enhancement of the greenhouse effect “could have been excessively
exaggerated”; and that temperature is likely to fall over the coming 20 years. They conclude that “It is high time to reconsider
the trend of global climate changes.”
Gerhard (2004), studying the conflict between observational science, theory and politics, says: “Debate over whether human
activity causes Earth climate change obscures the immensity of the dynamic systems that create and maintain climate
on the planet. Anthropocentric debate leads people to believe that they can alter these planetary dynamic systems to prevent
what they perceive as negative climate impacts on human civilization. Although politicians offer simplistic remedies, such as
the Kyoto Protocol, global climate continues to change naturally.”
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Ext. 6 – Warming Not CO2 Caused

CO2 and fossil fuels don’t have as much of an impact on global warming as
other compounds
James Hensen et al (researchers at National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Center
for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University Earth Institute, June 16, 2000, “Global warming in the 21st century: an
alternative situation,” http://www.pnas.org/content/97/18/9875.full.pdf).
A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent
decades has been driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH4, and N2O, not by the
products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The
growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future,
the change in climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black
carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this reduction of non-CO2 GHGs could lead to a decline in the
rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that
unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires
compositionspecific long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties.
Non-CO2 greenhouse gasses have primarily driven climate change

James Hensen et al (researchers at National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Center
for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University Earth Institute, June 16, 2000, “Global warming in the 21st century: an
alternative situation,” http://www.pnas.org/content/97/18/9875.full.pdf).
A corollary following from Fig. 1 is that climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs (1.4 Wym2) is nearly equal to the net value of all known
forcings for the period 1850–2000 (1.6 Wym2). Thus, assuming only that our estimates are approximately correct, we assert that the
processes producing the non-CO2 GHGs have been the primary drive for climate change in the past century.
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Ext. 6 – Warming Not CO2 Caused

Less than 5 percent of global warming stems from the combustion of fossil
fuels; water effects global warming more.
ROBERT H. ESSENHIGH, professor of mechanical engineering whose main focus is in the area of combustion. June 23, 2008,
Small Parts of Greenhouse Man-Made, Lexis Nexis Database.
Reading the June 7 letter "Fight against warming can't wait," from David A. Scott of the Sierra Club, I was
astonished that his organization believes global warming is due to carbon-dioxide emissions from combustion
of fossil fuels, since the numbers just don't support it. Of all the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, water and
carbon dioxide are about 99 percent of the total, at relative proportions of roughly 80 percent water and 20
percent carbon dioxide. So, if we want to "control" global warming by reducing the greenhouse gases, shouldn't
we start with water? And, since its source is natural -- evaporation from rivers, lakes and seas, with return as
rain -- how do we do that? Carbon dioxide's primary source also is nature: vegetation and the sea. Using data
from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (and can the IPCC be wrong?), the annual in/out carbon
tonnage (carried as carbon dioxide) is about 60 gigatons per year from vegetation and 90 gigatons per year from
the sea, for a total of 150 gigatons per year. And from combustion? Currently, it measures about 6 or 7 gigatons
per year, which is less than 5 percent of the total. Combine the carbon dioxide with the water emissions, and 5
percent of 20 percent is 1 percent. So this is a problem? Exactly why and how? But the real kicker is that it's not the rising carbon
dioxide that is driving up the temperature; it's the rising temperature that is driving up the carbon dioxide, and
this has been going on since the bottom of the last Ice Age.
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Impacts Inevitable
Warming impacts inevitable- even if actions taken now
Robert J. Samuelson, Editor: Newsweek,Washington Post, 08-20-2007, Newsweek PG.47, ,U.S. Edition, “Greenhouse
Simplicities”, http://www.lexisnexis.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?
docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T4284591773&format=GNBFI&sort=RELEVANCE&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T4284591777&
cisb=22_T4284591776&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&selRCNodeID=46&nodeStateId=411en_US,1&docsInCategory=49&csi=5774
&docNo=10 , Lexis
Consider a 2006 study from the International Energy Agency. With present policies, it projected that carbon-dioxide emissions
(a main greenhouse gas) would more than double by 2050; developing countries would account for almost 70 percent of the
increase. The IEA then simulated an aggressive, global program to cut emissions based on the best available technologies: more
solar, wind and biomass; more-efficient cars, appliances and buildings; more nuclear. Under this admitted fantasy, global
emissions in 2050 would still slightly exceed 2003 levels. Even the fantasy would be a stretch. In the United States, it would take
massive regulations, higher energy taxes or both. Democracies don't easily adopt painful measures in the present to avert possible
future problems. Examples abound. Since the 1973 Arab oil embargo, we've been on notice to limit dependence on insecure
foreign oil. We've done little. In 1973, imports were 35 percent of U.S. oil use; in 2006, they were 60 percent. For decades we've
known of the huge retirement costs of baby boomers. Little has been done
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Warming Skeptics Qualified

Warming deniers are more accomplished than their counterparts
H. Sterling Burnett, staff writer for the Heartland Institute, July 2008, A must read book on global warming,
http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=23409
As Solomon's knowledge grew, he found the limits of newspaper writing precluded an adequate in-depth exploration of these skeptical
scientists' important observations. Accordingly, selecting some of the scientists discussed in his columns, Solomon wrote The Deniers.
As a jacket blurb puts it, "What he found shocked him. Solomon discovered that on every 'headline' global warming issue, not only
were there serious scientists who dissented, consistently the dissenters were by far the more accomplished and eminent scientists."
Solomon does not attempt to settle the science, show that humans are or are not responsible for the present warming trend, or decide
what we can expect the future harms or benefits of continued warming (or cooling) might be. Instead, he simply shows in a manner
accessible to a lay audience that uncertainties concerning each important facet of the "consensus" view on warming abound, and that
the dissenting views are at least as plausible--and often more compelling--than the alarmist point of view.
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IPCC Indicts
IPCC peer review process fails – reviewer’s comments are grammatical, real
comments are ignored
John McLean, climate data analyst based in Melbourne, Australia, 9-6-07, “Peer Review? What Peer Review?”,
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/sppi_originals/peerreview.html
Reviewers' comments come in all forms. Many are simple corrections to spelling and grammar, others point out
inconsistencies, some ask for a change of wording, many ask for expressions of less certainty, others suggest extensive
references that should be included. A minority requests a change of wording and provides extensive reference material to
support their statements.
One response to a reviewer’s comment is worth mention - "Rejected. McKitrick and Michaels (2004) is full of errors. There are
many more papers in support of the statement than against it." - But this erroneously implies that a consensus of papers
determines what will be included, which of course is not very different to claiming a consensus determines a scientific truth.
Many reviewer comments appear to be rejected with little or no justification for doing so. In particular there appears a
disturbing pattern of rejecting reviewers' citations of references by claiming that a greater number of papers say
otherwise but then referring to just one paper to dispute the comments of other reviewers. Rejecting references to papers
that challenge or weaken claims of serious man-made interference with climate serve to create from whole cloth a
contrived, false “consensus.”
At other times changes were made, but simply resulted in new wording which imply a certainty or emphasis very similar to the
wording that the reviewer complained about.
The reviewers appear to have had varying success at modifying the emphasis of some paragraphs but one must wonder what
the report would have been like if the reviewers had not commented at all.
It is polestar clear that the IPCC-appointed chapter editors believed that their say was final in regard to the certainty of
statements and that theirs was the only correct interpretation of the cited material. For many reviewers who could provide
logical refutations, either with or without specifying references, the entire process was an exercise in frustration.
The notion of hundreds of experts diligently poring over all chapters of the report and providing extensive feedback by way of
peer review to the editing teams is here demonstrated to be an illusion. The true picture is there were some 64 reviewers for
each chapter, of whom half made very few comments. Most comments were minor drafting amendments.
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IPCC Indicts
IPCC co-opts the peer review process – rejects dissenting comments
The IPCC’s editors could – and often did – reject the peer-reviewers’ comments, a reversal of the normal practice in
scientific peer-review. Analysis of the extent of the editors’ refusal to accept criticism is difficult because the expressions of
rejection come in many forms, some were partial and others were rendered otiose by the rewriting, restructuring or deletion of
sections of text.
A simple analysis based on the occurrence of three key words - "rejected", "reject" and "disagree" - underestimates
the total number of rejections. Even so, this analysis reveals that the number of peer-reviewers’ comments that were
rejected by the IPCC climate-templars averaged 25% (min. 9.5%, max 58.1%) of all comments on the Second Revision.
The striking feature of most rejections is their dubious nature. Some were banal. Others showed inconsistencies with other
comments. Peer-reviewers had to justify the textual amendments which they were putting forward, but the responding editors
were under no corresponding obligation to justify their rejections of the reviewers’ proposals.
One reviewer said that "best estimate" should more correctly be "most recent estimate" but the editors changed the text to
"current best estimate". Reviewers were sometimes flatly told they were wrong, but no reasons or incontrovertible
references were provided.
IPCC flawed – not original research, funding means it’s skewed toward
concluding aff
Three conclusions follow. First, the IPCC is merely presenting what it regards as a consensus among published scientific
papers – in effect, a giant review article rather than original research.
Secondly, in order to produce a paper on some aspect of climatology a researcher needs funding. In the current environment
that funding is very obviously directed towards studies which assert that the human influence on climate is substantial.
It should be no surprise, therefore, that the number of papers adhering to what has become a “party line” can be
presented – rightly or wrongly – as a “consensus”.
Thirdly, the dominance of research presupposing a human influence also means that the IPCC editing teams are likely
to consist of people predisposed to view the situation in that light.
In these circumstances any review which casts doubt about assertions based on or related to a human influence on
climate will be just what many reviewers found it to be – frustrating and futile.
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IPCC Indicts
The IPCC’s global warming predictions are inaccurate
WorldNetDaily.com, 6-10-03, http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=32992
The IPCC's global-warming theory has been widely disputed. WorldNetDaily has reported that Dr. Fred Singer, professor
emeritus of environmental sciences at the University of Virginia, maintains there has been little or no warming since about
1940. In 1998, 17,000 scientists signed a petition circulated by the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine, saying, in part, "There is
no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the
oreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere and disruption of the Earth's climate." Then in January 2002,
the journal Science published the findings of scientists who had been measuring the vast West Antarctic ice sheet. The researchers
found that the ice sheet is growing thicker, not melting. The journal Nature published similar findings by scientist Peter Doran
and his colleagues at the University of Illinois. Rather than using the U.N.'s computer models, the researchers took actual temperature
readings and discovered temperatures in the Antarctic have been getting slightly colder – not warmer – for the last 30 years.
Last September, U.S. scientists based at the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station announced that, finally, they have been able to
measure the temperature of the atmosphere 18 to 68 miles over the pole. They found it to be 68 to 86 degrees Fahrenheit colder
than the computer models used to predict global warming showed.
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Randall & Schwartz Indicts

Randall and Schwartz are unqualified doomsayers—the articles nothing but
sensationalist military games
Lorne Gunter, staff writer for the Edmonton Journal, February 25th 2004 “Left-leaning, Bush-bashing newspaper engaged in
distortion: Global-warming believers taking in by sexed-up climate-change report” p. A13
One author, Doug Randall is an MBA; the other, Peter Schwartz is a self- described "scenario planning futurist," who "helps
organizations think the unthinkable by creating alternative stories or scenarios about how the future might pan out." Hmm, "think the
unthinkable" and "alternative" futures -- like, say, creating an alternative story about an unthinkable future climate catastrophe that is
more alarmist than even the wildest predictions by David Suzuki or the UN? The Guardian misrepresented Schwartz as a CIA analyst
and never mentioned he is the founder of GBN and currently serves as its chairman. He has consulted with the CIA, but is not
employed by them. Nor did the Guardian see fit to mention that Schwartz is a frequent script consult on Hollywood sci-fi movies or
that his 1999 book, The Long Boom, predicted the dot.com boom could continue for decades. No reader would know any of this from
the Guardian's sensationalist story, nor would they have much of a clue that neither co-author is a climate scientist. The story doesn't
say they are, but it doesn't state they're not, either. The Guardian also conveniently failed to explain that the Pentagon branch that
commissioned the report -- the internal think-tank known as the Office of Net Assessment -- is responsible for "modelling" and
"gaming" worst-case scenarios for American national security, then assessing whether the U.S. military is up to the challenge of
defending against such possibilities, in manpower, training and equipment. Indeed, the ONA is not mentioned until the 23rd paragraph
of a 25-paragraph story, and even then its role as the Pentagon's brainstorming arm, where all sorts of out-there and fringe ideas are
rolled into fantastical storylines to test the military's ability to adapt, is never explained.
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AT: Consensus Goes Aff

Their evidence references a voted decision and not scientific proof
To embody the various aspects of the global warming debate it is essential to come back to the supposed certainty of the scientific
proof stating man is guilty. All media and journals assert the scientific proof by quoting especially the 2007 UNESCO February
meeting of the GICC hold in Paris where 2500 scientists voted in favor of the human guilt. Here stands a major confusion
between what is a political decision and what is a scientific proof. In the case of a political decision, the unanimity and the number
of voters are essential ingredients in weighting the validity of the decision taken. At contrary science has nothing to do with neither
unanimity nor number of voters. Science policy does as well choices for funding but not science itself. One might recall that
consensus of scientists regarding erroneous ”truths” has often been used to oppose the acceptance of genuine new discoveries. A
scientific proof can be discard by the scientific community for some times as with the famous examples of Galileo and Einstein.
Hence if one
insists so much on the very broad consensus backing the ”scientific proof” of human guilt for global warming, that in itself proves that
the asserted ”proof” is absent. One must be very clear about this matter. At present, contrary to what has taken place during recent
years, there exists no scientific certainty about human guilt concerning the global warming that. There is only the strong
conviction of thousands of scientists that it is so. This is not a negligible matter in putting priorities in the research objectives but it
should not in any case be an argument to forbid parallel research in other directions. The debate must stay wide open within the
community of climatologists. The matter is simply not yet resolved scientifically, even if politically it appears to be.
No proof of warming exists and all assertions of human guilty destroy debate
And it must be clearly recognized that up until now, such proof cannot be given. There exists no proof to innocent mankind.
But here stands a fallacious reversal of what should be proved indeed. It is not the duty of the skeptics to have to bring a proof of
whatever it is about which they are skeptical as long as they are not stating anything but their doubt about some claimed
truth. Rather, it is up to the scientists making the new assertion who must bring the corresponding proof, in this case of
human guilt. The terms of the debate have been inverted. Guilt has been erected as the truth, and it is up to the defendants of the
opposite view to bring proof of the absence of guilt. This is an absurd trap in which to fall, and which distorts the entire
debate. This adroit deception has a pernicious effect. The respective roles of the opponents have been surreptitiously inverted, and all
further real inquiry into the matter is now subject to a barrier in the shape of an automatic accusation of superfluity. Man has been
declared guilty simply because, at the present time, , and as mentioned above there are moreover some superficially attractive
reasons for ascribing guilt to him no other bearer of guilt has been found.
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AT: Consensus Goes Aff

Probability of warming does not constitute scientific proof
On the contrary, to use the notion of probability in order to define the degree of confidence in the diagnosis of a unique
problem may lead to dramatic errors. In order to discover the truth about a specific unique problem, one has to somehow
aggregate a large number of indications, many of which are very different from each other, each one revealing only one part of
the overall truth. Unlike the repetition of the same event, these different indications have very different statistical weights.
Some seem major, other minor. One can gather a very large number of them, all pointing in the same direction (or perhaps not).
Progressively, a truth is apprehended in accord with all the available indications, but without necessarily being the truth. There is no
question here of a mathematical proof the subtlety of the process of proof (in the non-mathematical sense) of guilt. One may possess
99% of the indications, yet a single additional fact whose veracity is not in doubt can, at the last minute, exonerate the accused
person. Each case is unique. It is meaningless to apply statistics in such cases, and to attempt to do so leads to dangerous arbitrariness.
Numerous judicial errors have resulted from this fallacy, nor of a unique and incontrovertible relation of cause and effect. Until such
proof or incontrovertible demonstration has been accomplished, some new indication found from some previously unsuspected
or not investigated source has the potential to annihilate the entire conviction constructed up to that point, and to itself form
the basis of the definitive establishment of the real truth.
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AT: Consensus Goes Aff – IPCC-Specific

Within the IPCC, only 4 of 23 authors agreed with the warming hypothesis –
IPCC just ignores dissenters
SPPI, Science and Public Policy Institute, 9-10-07, “IPCC Peer Review Process an Illusion, Finds SPPI Analysis,”
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/press/ipccprocessillusion.html
In Chapter 9, the key science chapter, the IPCC concludes that "it is very highly likely that greenhouse gas forcing has
been the dominant cause of the observed global warming over the last 50 years". The IPCC leads us to believe that this
statement is very much supported by the majority of reviewers. The reality is that there is surprisingly little explicit support
for this key notion. Among the 23 independent reviewers just 4 explicitly endorsed the chapter with its hypothesis, and
one other endorsed only a specific section.
Moreover, only 62 of the IPCC’s 308 reviewers commented on this chapter at all. As with other chapters, simple
corrections, requests for clarifications or refinements to the text which did not challenge the IPCC’s conclusions are generally
treated favourably, but comments which dispute the IPCC’s claims or their certainty are treated with far less indulgence.
In a related finding, McLean observes, “The dominance of research presupposing a human influence also means that the IPCC
editing teams are likely to consist of people predisposed to view the situation in that light.”
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AT: Consensus Goes Aff – IPCC-Specific

IPCC rejects comments from dissenters – only 1/7 of IPCC peer reviewers agree
In these circumstances any review which casts doubt about assertions based on or related to a human influence on
climate will be just what many reviewers found it to be – frustrating and futile.As with other chapters, simple corrections,
requests for clarifications or refinements to the text which did not challenge the IPCC’s conclusions are generally treated
favourably, but comments which dispute the IPCC’s claims or their certainty are treated with far less indulgence.
In particular, comments which draw attention to natural climate forces (e.g. El Nino influences, or the natural “blocking
high” that triggered the 2003 European heat wave) are abruptly rejected. The pretext for some of the rejections was the
citation of previous IPCC reports which themselves were inadequately reviewed, and were not subjected to the rigorous
peer-review that is customary before a scientific paper can be published in the learned journals. Keep in mind, previous reports
were (a) not reviewed in the same manner as scientific papers and (b) were the result of similar dubious processes as in the
current report.
In many instances the IPCC’s editors responded to comments by saying that the point had been discussed in some other
chapter.
It is difficult to quantify the extent of the reviewers’ support for the IPCC’s conclusions in the chapter on attribution of climate
change. Given the number of reviewers who made very few comments, the duplication of comments and the number of minor
corrections, it appears likely that less than 40 of the IPCC’s 308 reviewers were generally supportive of the hypothesis. It
is not true, therefore, that hundreds of scientists endorsed the IPCC’s findings, still less that thousands did so.
The IPCC’s reports, then, are not peer reviewed in the sense that is commonly understood. The editors, rather than
accepting genuine and often well-referenced criticisms of the IPCC’s conclusions, have instead tended simply to reject most
substantial criticisms.
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AT: Consensus Goes Aff – Oreskes-Specific

Only 1% of the studies Oreskes evaluated explicitly endorse a consensus –
twice as many explicitly reject it
age-2.html [Peiser = Dr. Benny Peiser, of Liverpool John Moores University in the UK]
Significantly, Oreskes’ essay does not state how many of the 928 papers explicitly endorsed her very limited definition of
“consensus”. Dr. Peiser found that only 13 of the 1,117 documents – a mere 1% – explicitly endorse the consensus, even in
her limited definition.
Dr. Peiser’s research demonstrated that several of the abstracts confounded Oreskes’ assertion of unanimity by explicitly
rejecting or casting doubt upon the notion that human activities are the main drivers of the observed warming over the
last 50 years. Thus, in Oreskes’ sample, more than twice as many appeared to have explicitly rejected or doubted the
“consensus” as had explicitly endorsed it.
According to Dr. Peiser, fewer than one-third of the papers analyzed by Oreskes either explicitly or implicitly endorsed
the “consensus”, contrary to Oreskes’ assertion that the figure was 75%. In addition, 44 abstracts focused on the natural
as opposed to anthropogenic causes of climate change, and did not include any direct or indirect link or reference to
human actitivies, carbon dioxide or other greenhouse gas emissions, let alone anthropogenic forcing of recent climate change.
More than half of the abstracts did not mention anthropogenic climate change at all and could not, therefore, reasonably
be held to have commented either way upon the “consensus” as defined by Oreskes.
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**NEG – AT: AFF IMPACTS
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AT: Biodiversity
Turn – warming increases biodiversity – past warming periods prove
Rhett A. Butler, tropical rainforest data collector and founder of mongabay.com, 3-21-07, “Global warming may cause biodiversity
extinction,” http://news.mongabay.com/2007/0322-extinction.html
While climate change has caused species extinction, it has also led to the birth of new species, including mankind.
During the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), a period 55 million years ago marked by a rapid rise in greenhouse
gases that heated Earth by roughly 9° F (5° C) in less than 10,000 years, climate warming caused widespread changes,
including mass extinction in the world's oceans from acidification and shifts of plant communities due to changes in rainfall.
The era helped set the stage for the "Age of Mammals," which included the first appearance of modern primates.
Later periods of climate change in Africa may have created conditions that led to the evolution of humans. Dr Mark
Maslin, Senior Lecturer in Geography at University College London, agues that climate variation over the last 2.7 million
years played a crucial part in enhancing human development. His work suggests that humans evolved during short
periods of great environmental change — when dry periods were punctuated by large rapidly appearing and disappearing
lakes. It was these rapid changes in water sources that forced primitive hominid communities to rapidly change and
adapt
"These temporary humid periods would have imposed huge impacts on early humans," he stated at the 2005 Annual
Conference of the Royal Geographical Society in London. "Our research provides strong support for theories in which early
human species evolved and spread out in response to a rapidly changing environment."
No extinction from biodiversity – lowering population growth checks and

ultimately encourages biodiversity
Rhett A. Butler, tropical rainforest data collector and founder of mongabay.com, 2-6-07, “Just how bad is the biodiversity extinction
crisis?”, http://news.mongabay.com/2007/0206-biodiversity.html
On the basis of these lower rural growth rates, Wright and Muller-Landau argue that deforestation rates will slow. Overall,
their model projects that net forest cover will not change much between now and 2030, though primary forest will be
replaced by secondary forest. Using the species-area curve, which holds that there exists a tight correlation between the area of
habitat and the number of species, the authors forecast a 21 percent to 24 percent extinction in Africa, 16 percent to 35
percent in Africa, and more moderate extinction rates in Latin America, though they don't offer an estimate. They argue that
many species currently at risk from habitat loss will not go extinct in the end and instead will benefit from the projected
abandonment of agricultural lands and subsequent regrowth of secondary forest in the absence of rural farmers practicing
swidden agriculture.
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AT: Coral
Turn – global warming increases algae growth that keeps coral alive
Michael Hopkin, news reporter for Nature journal, 9-11-04, “Reefs get global warming lifeline,”
http://www.nature.com/news/2004/040809/full/news040809-8.html
Coral may be able to adapt to increased sea temperatures more easily than experts had thought. The finding allows
cautious hope that the world's reefs will escape devastation at the hands of global warming.
Researchers have discovered that coral, tiny animals that forge alliances with algae to harness energy from the Sun, can team
up with algae that are more tolerant of heat in response to warmer sea temperatures.
Experts had worried that warming could wipe out the world's reefs by 'bleaching' them, a process in which the coloured algae
are destroyed to leave the corals in a bone-white, limbo state that can kill off a reef in weeks. But now it seems that some algae
can survive higher temperatures, and can colonize bleached reefs, restoring them to life.
"Corals have a cunning ability to adapt to events because they're flexible in their associations," says Andrew Baker of the
Wildlife Conservation Society in New York, one of the researchers who made the discovery. "This shows that the more
dramatic predictions of coral-reef doom are simplistic."
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AT: Coral
Sediment stress is the major cause of coral loss- not global warming
Sediment deposited onto corals interferes with feeding by the polyps and costs the colonies energy to remove (Riegl and Branch,
1995). In the extreme, burial by rapid or prolonged sediment deposition is fatal to corals and other bottom-dwellers. Sediment
accumulation also inhibits the establishment of new reefs, because coral communities require hard and stable surfaces. Sediment
suspended in the water increases turbidity and reduces available light. Reefs that grow in naturally turbid environments, with
organisms that are suited to such conditions, may experience low impacts from a moderately increased sediment supply (Larcombe
and Woolfe, 1999), but sediment loading on reefs that are accustomed to low-sediment conditions imposes significant stress (e.g.,
Cortés, 1994). Sediment on a coral reef can have two sources: transport of soil particles with freshwater runoff from land, or
resuspension of sediment already on the seafloor. Human activities have reduced some sediment sources and increased others.
Damming of major rivers has dramatically reduced their sediment discharge to the ocean (Meade et al., 1990; Vörösmarty and
Sahagian, 2000), but large river outflows represent only a small proportion of the world’s coastline and are usually not near reefs. In
smaller coastal watersheds and offshore, human activity has tended to increase sediment discharge and resuspension in coastal
waters. In Southeast Asia, Burke et al. (2002) calculated that more than 21 percent of all coral reefs are threatened by sedimentation
from land-based sources, primarily due to logging and poor agricultural practices. McCulloch et al. (2003) used coral skeletal records
(1750–1998) to show that sediment delivery to the near-shore central Great Barrier Reef increased five- to ten-fold with the
introduction of European agricultural practices. These findings support the contention that significant portions of the Great Barrier
Reef suffer chronic anthropogenic sediment stress (Wolanski et al., 2003). Local dumping, dredging, land reclamation, mining, and
construction activities can also result in increased sedimentation or resuspension of sediment in the marine environment.
Reef survival’s guaranteed through adaptation—El Nino proves

Over the past 5–10 years, evidence for the diversity of zooxanthellae and environmentally correlated coral-algal partnerships has
expanded rapidly, and experiments have shown that the processes required for adaptation driven by bleaching occur in nature (Baker,
2001; Kinzie et al., 2001). Buddemeier et al. (in press) review the evidence and conclude that adaptive bleaching is real, but its
operational significance will not be fully known until we have a better understanding of the detailed mechanisms and of the functional
taxonomy of the zooxanthellae (Coles and Brown, 2003). Field data indicate that coral bleaching on some eastern Pacific reefs was
much worse during the 1982-83 El Niño than in 1997-98, although temperature extremes during the two events were similar (Glynn
et al., 2001; Guzmán and Cortés, 2001; Podestá and Glynn, 2001). The difference in responses to these two comparable events offers
some support for the idea that corals or communities can adapt to higher temperatures over decades, either through adaptive bleaching
(Baker, 2003) or through evolutionary selection for more heat/irradiance-tolerant corals that survive bleaching events (Glynn et al.,
2001).
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AT: Coral – Sea Level Rise

Sea level rise allows for coral expansion—projected rates assurance adaptation
The predicted rise of sea level due to the combined effects of thermal expansion of ocean water and the addition of water from
melting icecaps and glaciers is between 0.1 and 0.9 meter (4-36 inches) by the end of this century (Houghton et al.,2001). Sea level
has remained fairly stable for the last few thousand years, and many reefs have grown to the point where they are sea-level-limited,
with restricted water circulation and little or no potential for upward growth. A modest sea-level rise would therefore be beneficial to
such reefs. Although sea-level rise might “drown” reefs that are near their lower depth limit by decreasing available light, the
projected rate and magnitude of sea-level rise are well within the ability of most reefs to keep up (Smith and Buddemeier, 1992). A
more likely source of stress from sea-level rise would be sedimentation due to increased erosion of shorelines.
153
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AT: Disease
Warming doesn’t cause disease – ticks prove social factors outweigh
Oxford News, University of Oxford, 6-6-07, “Is climate change fuelling disease?” http://www.admin.ox.ac.uk/po/070606.shtml
As key players in the spread of disease ticks aren’t exactly man’s best friend but, according to Oxford University scientists,
they may offer a vital clue that climate change is not to blame for an upsurge in many human diseases.
While mosquitoes may be infamous for spreading malaria in Africa it is less well known that ticks spread Lyme disease
throughout Europe and Tick-Borne Encephalitis from Eastern France, through Austria, Switzerland, Germany, Sweden and
Eastern Europe including the Baltic States. The common assumption is that upsurges in such diseases in these regions are
mainly due to climate change but new research published in PloS ONE contradicts this view.
Tick-Borne Encephalitis is a viral infection of the central nervous system affecting humans as well as other mammals. The
virus can infect the brain (encephalitis), the membrane that surrounds the brain and spinal cord (meningitis) or both
(meningoencephalitis).
The scientists focused on Tick-Borne Encephalitis (TBE)because, unlike Lyme disease, there are reliable records for TBE
infection in the Baltic region dating back to 1970. These records show that, from 1992 to 1993, cases of TBE infection
markedly increased in Estonia (64 per cent), Latvia (175 per cent) and Lithuania (1065 per cent).
The team then compared these records with climate records for the same period that show a significant increase in
springtime temperatures since 1989. In theory these warmer springs could have increased transmission of TBE by
enabling tick larvae and nymphs to be active earlier in the year. Yet, despite almost identical warming across the Baltic
region, the researchers found significant variation in the timing and degree of TBE upsurge in different parts of each
country. Also, in Latvia incidence of TBE has decreased since 1999.
‘These uniform climatic changes cannot explain how the incidence of TBE varies from district to district with infection
rates peaking at different times in neighbouring districts,’ said Professor Sarah Randolph of Oxford University who led the
study. ‘Our research suggests that, while changes in climate may play a role, socio-economic effects – such as those related
to the break-up of the Soviet Union – have a much greater influence.’ Professor Randolph adds that what is true for TBE is
also likely to be true for other tick-borne diseases such as Lyme disease.
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AT: Economy
Warming reduces health care costs and boosts millions into the economy
Thomas Gale Moore (senior Fellow at the Hoover Institute, Stanford University, “Health and Amenity Effects of Global Warming,”
5/3/1996, http://www.stanford.edu/~moore/health.html).
In the early 1970s, the U.S. Department of Transportation sponsored a series of conferences on climate change that examined, among
other things, the effect of climate on health care expenditures and on preferences of workers for various climates. At that time, the
government and most observers were concerned about possible cooling of the globe. The Department organized the meetings because
it planned to subsidize the development and construction of a large fleet of supersonic aircraft that environmentalists contended would
affect the world's climate. The third gathering, held in February 1974, examined the implications of climate change for the economy
and people's well-being and included a study of the costs to human health from cooling, especially any increased expenses for doctors'
services, visits to hospitals, and additional medication (Anderson 1974). For that meeting, the Department asked the researchers to
consider a cooling of 2deg.C and a warming of 0.5deg.C. Robert Anderson, Jr., the economist who calculated health care outlays,
made no estimate of the costs or savings should the climate warm; but his numbers show that for every 5 percent reduction in the
annual number of heating degree days, a measure of winter's chill, health care costs would fall by $0.6 billion (1971 dollars).[1] In his
paper summarizing the various studies on economic costs and benefits of climate change, Ralph D'Arge (1974), the principal
economist involved in the DOT project, indicated that a 10 percent shift in degree days would be equivalent to a 1deg.C change in
temperature. Thus the gain in reduced health costs from a warming of 2.5deg.C would be on the order of $3.0 billion in 1971 dollars
or $21.7 billion in 1994 dollars, adjusting for population growth and price changes (using the price index for medical care).
Warming reduces health care costs by billions

Thomas Gale Moore (senior Fellow at the Hoover Institute, Stanford University, “Health and Amenity Effects of Global Warming,”
5/3/1996, http://www.stanford.edu/~moore/health.html).
A somewhat warmer climate would probably reduce mortality in the United States and provide Americans with valuable benefits.
Regressions of death rates in Washington, DC, and in some 89 urban counties scattered across the nation on climate and demographic
variables demonstrate that warmer temperatures reduce deaths. The results imply that a 2.5deg. Celsius warming would lower deaths
in the United States by about 40,000 per year. Although the data on illness are poor, the numbers indicate that warming might reduce
medical costs by about $20 billion annually. Utilizing willingness to pay as a measure of preference, this paper regresses wage rates
for a few narrowly defined occupations in metropolitan areas on measures of temperature and size of city and finds that people prefer
warm climates. Workers today would be willing to give up between $30 billion and $100 billion annually in wages for a 2.5deg.C
increase in temperatures.
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AT: Flooding
Warming won’t cause flooding or melting, it increases ice and decreases sea
levels
According to another persistent greenhouse legend, massive flooding will strike major coastal cities, raising horrific scenarios of New
York, London and Shanghai sinking into the tide. However this horror story is a relic of the late 1980s, when climate simulations were
far less precise than they are today. At the time, some experts believed that the Antarctic ice shield could melt, which would in fact
lead to a dramatic 60-meter (197-foot) rise in sea levels. The nuclear industry quickly seized upon and publicized the scenario, which
it recognized as an argument in favor of its emissions-free power plants. But it quickly became apparent that the horrific tale of a
melting South Pole was nothing but fiction. The average temperature in the Antarctic is -30 degrees Celsius. Humanity cannot
possibly burn enough oil and coal to melt this giant block of ice. On the contrary, current climate models suggest that the Antarctic
will even increase in mass: Global warming will cause more water to evaporate, and part of that moisture will fall as snow over
Antarctica, causing the ice shield to grow. As a result, the total rise in sea levels would in fact be reduced by about 5 cm (2 inches).
156
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AT: Hurricanes
Turn – warming creates fewer hurricanes – increases wind patterns that choke
hurricane development
Andrea Thompson, LiveScience staff writer, 4-17-07, “Study: Global Warming Could Hinder Hurricanes,”
http://www.livescience.com/environment/070417_wind_shear.html
Global warming might not fuel more intense hurricanes in the Atlantic after all. Despite increasing ocean temperatures
that feed the monstrous storms, climate change may also be ramping up the winds that choke off a hurricane’s
development, a new study claims.
“The environmental changes here do not suggest a strong increase in tropical Atlantic hurricane activity during the 21st
century,” said study team member Brian Soden of the University of Miami.
Hurricanes form as storms shoot off the coast of Africa and pull energy from the warm, moist air over the oceans. As the
hurricane intensifies, it begins to rotate. But when winds vary in speed and direction at different heights in the
atmosphere, a phenomenon known as wind shear, they prevent the organization of the storm’s circulation, stopping its
development or intensification.
Other studies have found that global warming will increase ocean temperatures over the coming century, fueling more intense
hurricanes, but this study is the first to suggest that wind shear may also increase and counteract the effects of ocean
warming.
“Wind shear is one of the dominant controls to hurricane activity, and the models project substantial increases in the
Atlantic,” said study leader Gabriel Vecchi of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “Based on historical
relationships, the impact on hurricane activity of the projected shear change could be as large—and in the opposite sense
—as that of the warming oceans.”
Warming doesn’t increase destructive hurricanes

NOAA News Releases, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2-21-08, “NOAA: Hurricane frequency and global
warming NOT the cause of increased destruction” http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/02/21/noaa-hurricane-frequency-and-
global-warming-not-the-cause-of-increased-destruction/
A team of scientists have found that the economic damages from hurricanes have increased in the U.S. over time due to greater
population, infrastructure, and wealth on the U.S. coastlines, and not to any spike in the number or intensity of hurricanes. “We
found that although some decades were quieter and less damaging in the U.S. and others had more land-falling hurricanes and more
damage, the economic costs of land-falling hurricanes have steadily increased over time,” said Chris Landsea, one of the researchers
as well as the science and operations officer at NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami. “There is nothing in the U.S.
hurricane damage record that indicates global warming has caused a significant increase in destruction along our coasts.”
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AT: Hurricanes
Their studies are flawed – data is collected haphazardly, producing wrong
results
Jeffrey Kluger, environmental correspondent for Time Magazine, 9-26-05, “Global Warming: The Culprit?”,
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1109337-2,00.html
What's more, historical studies of hurricanes like Emanuel's rely on measurements taken both before and during the era of
satellites. Size up your storms in radically divergent ways, and you're likely to get radically divergent results. Even after
satellites came into wide use--adding a significant measure of reliability to the data collected--the quality of the machines
and the meteorologists who relied on them was often uneven. "The satellite technology available from 1970 to 1989 was
not up to the job," says William Gray of Colorado State University. "And many people in non-U.S. areas were not trained
well enough to determine the very fine differences between, say, the 130-m.p.h. wind speed of a Category 4 and, below that,
a Category 3."
It is impossible to conclude that warming causes more destructive hurricanes –

no way of knowing the total impact of all possible driving factors
Michael Mann et al., professor of geoscience and prominent researcher at the University of Massachusetts, 9-2-05, “Hurricanes
and Global Warming – Is There A Connection?”, http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=181
The correct answer–the one we have indeed provided in previous posts (Storms & Global Warming II, Some recent updates
and Storms and Climate Change) –is that there is no way to prove that Katrina either was, or was not, affected by global
warming. For a single event, regardless of how extreme, such attribution is fundamentally impossible. We only have one
Earth, and it will follow only one of an infinite number of possible weather sequences. It is impossible to know whether or
not this event would have taken place if we had not increased the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere as much
as we have. Weather events will always result from a combination of deterministic factors (including greenhouse gas
forcing or slow natural climate cycles) and stochastic factors (pure chance).
Due to this semi-random nature of weather, it is wrong to blame any one event such as Katrina specifically on global
warming - and of course it is just as indefensible to blame Katrina on a long-term natural cycle in the climate.
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AT: Hurricanes
There’s no net increase in hurricanes – bad years are balanced out over time
Jeffrey Kluger, environmental correspondent for Time Magazine, 9-26-05, “Global Warming: The Culprit?”,
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1109337-2,00.html
So that ought to mean a lot more hurricanes, right? Actually, no--which is one of the reasons it's so hard to pin these trends down.
The past 10 stormy years in the North Atlantic were preceded by many very quiet ones--all occurring at the same time that
global temperatures were marching upward. Worldwide, there's a sort of equilibrium. When the number of storms in the
North Atlantic increases, there is usually a corresponding fall in the number of storms in, say, the North Pacific. Over the course
of a year, the variations tend to cancel one another out. "Globally," says atmospheric scientist Kerry Emanuel of the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology, "we do not see any increase at all in the frequency of hurricanes."
Warming doesn’t increase hurricanes – current hurricane level due to natural

oscillations
Christopher W. Landsea, research meteorologist, Hurricane Research Division, NOAA, 12-22-05, “Meteorology: Hurricanes and
global warming,” http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v438/n7071/full/nature04477.html
A third concern is that it is difficult to separate out any anthropogenic signal from the substantial natural multidecadal
oscillations with a relatively short record of tropical-cyclone activity. One way to extend the PDI analysis back to include
several additional decades of reliable records is to examine only those tropical cyclones that made landfall along populated
coastlines11, 12. Figure 2 shows that tropical-cyclone activity in the United States was generally extremely busy between
the 1930s and 1960s, but fell below average between the 1970s and early 1990s. Despite the extreme value for 2004, the
most recent decade has a PDI that is near-average for the United States, rather than showing an increase in the overall
number and intensity of hurricane strikes.
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AT: Hurricanes – AT: THC Slowdown Now

Recent predictions of THC slowdown were a result of seasonal variability, not
warming
Quirin Schiermeier, climate writer for Nature science journal, 8-23-07, “Ocean circulation noisy, not stalling,”
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v448/n7156/full/448844b.html
Suggestions of a substantial decline in the Atlantic Ocean circulation that carries warm tropical water northwards seem
to be largely unfounded. New data — recorded between the Bahamas and the Canary Islands — show that the seemingly
dramatic reduction discovered two years ago in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is
easily within the range of huge seasonal variability.
In 2005, a team led by Harry Bryden, an oceanographer at the University of Southampton, UK, reported a 30% decrease in the
MOC at 26.5° north, after comparing their measurements from ship-based instruments in 2004 with similar data from 1957,
1981, 1992 and 1998 (H. L. Bryden, H. R. Longworth and S. A. Cunningham Nature 438, 655–657; 2005). They did caution at
the time that, due to the scarcity of observations, the error bounds of their study were exceptionally wide.
Nevertheless, the finding fuelled fears of an imminent collapse of the thermohaline Atlantic circulation — the ocean conveyor
driven by temperature and salinity differences that gives rise to the Gulf Stream, allowing western Europe to enjoy a relatively
mild climate. Alarmist headlines warned that a mini ice age would hit Britain.
However, 12 months' worth of data from an array of moored instruments, deployed during the same 2004 cruise that
yielded the most recent measurements included in Bryden's study, now suggest that the observed changes were due to short-
term variability and not the result of global warming.
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AT: Ice Age

Even if they’re right only minor climate changes will occur, Global warming
won’t lead to an ice age or a collapse of the AMO
Andrew J. Weaver and Claude-Marcel Hillaire (Gordon head of the School of Earth and Ocean Sciences at the
University of Victoria and a Canadian geoscientist of great distinction and a world leader in Quaternary research. He is known for
his groundbreaking research on the environment, climate change, and oceanography. He is a Fellow of the Royal Society of
Canada and professor at l'Université du Québec à Montréal, 4/16/2004, “Global Warming and the next Ice Age,”
http://web.ebscohost.com/ehost/detail?vid=1&hid=14&sid=5e63d5e2-5a5a-4141-a53a-7826e5e7c1bb%40sessionmgr2)
Models that eventually lead to a collapse of the AMO under global warming conditions typically fall into two categories: (i) flux-
adjusted coupled general circulation models, and (ii) intermediate-complexity models with zonally averaged ocean components.
Both suites of models are known to be more sensitive to freshwater perturbations. In the first class of models, a small perturbation
away from the present climate leads to large systematic errors in the salinity fields (as large flux adjustments are applied) that then
build up to cause dramatic AMO transitions. In the second class of models, the convection and sinking of water masses are
coupled (there is no horizontal structure). In contrast, newer non — flux-adjusted models find a more stable AMO under future
conditions of climate change ( 11, 13, 14). Even the recent observations of freshening in the North Atlantic ( 15) (a reduction of
salinity due to the addition of freshwater) appear to be consistent with the projections of perhaps the most sophisticated non —
flux-adjusted model ( 11). Ironically, this model suggests that such freshening is associated with an increased AMO ( 16). This
same model proposes that it is only Labrador Sea Water formation that is susceptible to collapse in response to global warming. In
light of the paleoclimate record and our understanding of the contemporary climate system, it is safe to say that global warming
will not lead to the onset of a new ice age. These same records suggest that it is highly unlikely that global warming will lead to a
widespread collapse of the AMO — despite the appealing possibility raised in two recent studies ( 18, 19) — although it is
possible that deep convection in the Labrador Sea will cease. Such an event would have much more minor consequences on the
climate downstream over Europe.
THC shut down won’t cause an ice age-- comparisons ignore crucial climate
differences
W. S. Broecker, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, January 1999 "What If the Conveyor Were to Shut
Down? Reflections on a Possible Outcome of the Great Global Experiment," Geological Society of America
Today 9(1):1-7 http://www.geosociety.org/pubs/gsatoday/gsat9901.htmroyalties
But is it realistic to believe that a shutdown of the conveyor a century or so from now would produce the conditions that
characterized the last glacial period? The answer is very likely "no," for several reasons. The first has to do with the fact that
during the Younger Dryas, Canada and Scandinavia still had sizable ice caps. The second is that the abrupt part of the warming at
the close of the Younger Dryas brought climate only about halfway to its interglacial state (Severinghaus et al., 1998). The other
half of the transition was more gradual, reflecting perhaps the post-Younger Dryas retreat of the residual ice caps in Canada and
Scandinavia. Finally, modeling studies (Manabe and Stouffer, 1993; Stocker and Schmittner, 1997) that forecast a greenhouse-
induced conveyor shutdown do so only after a substantial global warming (4 to 5°C) has occurred. Hence, the global climate
conditions prevailing at the time of the shut-down would be substantially warmer than those that existed just before the onset of
the Younger Dryas. For these reasons, the analogy to the conditions that prevailed during the Younger Dryas surely constitutes a
worst case scenario.
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Studies conclude that a collapse of the THC kills little vegetation and it would come back later anyways
Response is strongest around the North Atlantic but significant changes occur over the entire globe and highlight rapid
teleconnections. Precipitation is reduced over large parts of the Northern Hemisphere. A southward shift of the Intertropical
Convergence Zone over the Atlantic and eastern Pacific creates changes in precipitation that are particularly large in South
America and Africa. Colder and drier conditions in much of the Northern Hemisphere reduce soil moisture and net primary
productivity of the terrestrial vegetation. This is only partly compensated by more productivity in the Southern Hemisphere. The
total global net primary productivity by the vegetation decreases by 5%. It should be noted, however, that in this version of the
model the vegetation distribution cannot change, and atmospheric carbon levels are also fixed. After about 100 years the model’s
thermohaline circulation has largely recovered, and most climatic anomalies disappear
The THC is resilient to change and collapse would happen thousands of years later
Possible instabilities of the THC also have important implications for the predictability of future climate change. Model
simulations show that as an instability is approached, small deviations in initial or boundary conditions can determine
whether a transition to a different equilibrium will occur, which inherently limits predictability. This behavior has been
investigated with a climate model of reduced complexity (Knutti and Stocker, 2001). The threshold is approached by a
prescribed global warming over about 140 years, equivalent to a doubling of carbon dioxide. Small random fluctuations, as
produced by atmospheric disturbances at the ocean surface, can excite large changes in the THC when the system is close to a
threshold (Figure 4.1). Many experiments with the same model but slightly different initial conditions (Monte Carlo
simulations) indicate that the North Atlantic THC can undergo many oscillations before it settles in an active or a collapsed
state. In some cases, a rapid collapse of the THC occurs many thousands of years after the perturbation. Obviously, beyond
the problem of approaching an instability point and the increased vulnerability of the THC to further perturbation, such an
evolution results in a much more unpredictable climate system (Figure 4.1).
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Although the THC shutdown is caused by global warming, it won’t lead to an
Ice age
A question of great societal relevance is whether the North Atlantic THC will remain stable under the global warming expected for the
next few centuries. A possible shutdown of the THC would not induce a new glacial period, as press reports suggested; however, it
clearly would involve massive changes both in the ocean (major circulation regimes, upwelling and sinking regions, distribution of
seasonal sea ice, ecological systems, sea level) and in the atmosphere (land-sea temperature contrast, storm paths, hydrological cycle,
extreme events). The most pronounced changes are expected in regions that are today most affected by the influence of the North
Atlantic THC (e.g., Scandinavia and Greenland). Current knowledge of the evolution of the THC is summarized in the Third
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001b). Several comprehensive coupled climate models were
run with a scenario of increasing greenhouse gas forcing for the next 100 years. Most models show a reduction in the THC in response
to the forcing (Plate 7). This is due to enhanced warming of the sea surface in the high latitudes and a stronger poleward atmospheric
transport of moisture, leading to more precipitation in the North Atlantic region. Those two effects, in concert, lead to an increase in
buoyancy of the North Atlantic surface waters, which reduces the THC. Although the relative strength of the two mechanisms is
debated and uncertain (Dixon et al., 1999; Mikolajewicz and Voss, 2000), most climate models seem to show a general reduction in
the Atlantic THC in response to global warming. The exceptions to this behavior remind us of the inherent uncertainties present in the
simulations. It is not clear whether all relevant feedback mechanisms are considered properly in the current generation of climate
models and whether their strength is simulated realistically. A simulation by Latif et al. (2000) suggested that changes in the El Niño-
Southern Oscillation (ENSO) frequency and amplitude might change the freshwater balance of the tropical Atlantic in such a way that
increases in buoyancy in the high latitudes are compensated for by drier (and hence more saline) conditions in the tropics. Gent (2001)
reported on a simulation in which evaporation from a warmer sea surface in the North Atlantic is not compensated for by enhanced
precipitation, and this simulation results in a stabilization of the THC. While it is not currently possible to decide which simulations
are more realistic—those of Plate 7 showing a THC decrease or those that do not—the two simulations by Latif et al. (2000) and Gent
(2001) illustrate that the quantitatively correct simulation of heat and freshwater flux changes is essential for the projection of the
evolution of the THC under global warming
Probability of THC collapsing in the next century is below 10 percent

Timothy M. Lenton et al, Hermann Held‡, Elmar Kriegler‡,§, Jim W. Hall¶, Wolfgang Lucht‡, Stefan Rahmstorf‡, and Hans
Joachim Schellnhuber, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, and Tyndall Centre for Climate Change
Research, Norwich, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie
Mellon University, School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, and Tyndall Centre for Climate Change
Research, Newcastle NE1 7RU, United Kingdom; and Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University, and Tyndall Centre for
Climate Change Research, 11/21/07, http://wfxsearch.webfeat.org/wfsearch/search
The proximity of the present climate to this tipping point varies considerably between models, corresponding to an additional North
Atlantic freshwater input of 0.1–0.5 Sv (44). The sensitivity of North Atlantic freshwater input to anthropogenic forcing is also poorly
known, but regional precipitation is predicted to increase (12) and the GIS could tribute significantly (e.g., GIS melt over 1,000 years
is equivalent to 0.1 Sv). The North Atlantic is observed to be freshening (49), and estimates of recent increases in freshwater input
yield 0.014 Sv from melting sea ice (18), 0.007 Sv from Greenland (29), and 0.005 Sv from Eurasian rivers (50), totaling 0.026 Sv,
without considering precipitation over the oceans or Canadian river runoff. The IPCC (12) argues that an abrupt transition of the THC
is “very unlikely” [the probability is lower than 10%] (probability <10%) to occur before 2100 and that any transition is likely to take
a century or more. Our definition encompasses gradual transitions that appear continuous across the tipping point; hence, some of the
IPCC runs (ref. 12, p. 773 ff) may yet meet our criteria (but would need to be run for longer to see if they reach a qualitatively
different state). Furthermore, the IPCC does not include freshwater runoff from GIS melt. Subsequent OAGCM simulations clearly
pass a THC tipping point this century and undergo a qualitative change before the next millennium (48). Both the timescale and the
magnitude of forcing are important (51), because a more rapid forcing to a given level can more readily overwhelm the negative
feedback that redistributes salt in a manner that maintains whatever is the current circulation state.
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THC predictions are not conclusive – the IPCC concedes that current models fail
IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a scientific intergovernmental body set up by the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO) and by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), ’01, “Climate Change 2001: Working Group 1:
The Scientific Basis,” http://www.grida.no/CLIMATE/IPCC_TAR/wg1/357.htm
The evolution of the THC in response to future forcing scenarios is a topic requiring further study. It should be noted in
particular that these climate model experiments do not currently include the possible effects of significant freshwater input
arising from changes in land ice sheets (Greenland and Antarctic ice caps) and mountain glaciers, which might well lead to bigger
reductions in the THC. It is too early to say with confidence whether irreversible shut-down of the THC is likely or not, or at
what threshold it might occur. Though no AOGCM to date has shown a shut-down of the THC by the year 2100, climate
changes over that period may increase the likelihood during subsequent centuries, though this is scenario-dependent. The realism of
the representation of oceanic mechanisms involved in the THC changes also needs to be carefully evaluated in the models.
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AT: Malaria
Better models prove that warming doesn’t affect malaria – temperature is not
the only determinant of mosquito survival
David J. Rogers, scientist with Trypanosomiasis and Land-use in Africa Research Group of University of Oxford, and Sarah E.
Randolph, Oxford Tick Research Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, 9-8-2000, “The Global Spread of Malaria
in a Future, Warmer World,” http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/289/5485/1763
Until such biological approaches can give accurate descriptions of the current situation of global malaria, they cannot
be used to give reliable predictions about the future. Instead, an alternative two-step statistical approach to mapping
vector-borne diseases gave a better description of the present global distribution of falciparum malaria and predicted
remarkably few future changes, even under the most extreme scenarios of climate change. First, the present-day
distribution was used to establish the climatic constraints currently operating on malaria. Then, the results were applied to
future GCM scenarios to predict future distribution. Simple maximum likelihood methods were used (16) (Fig. 1A), based on
the mean, maximum, and minimum of three climatic variables: temperature, precipitation, and saturation vapor pressure. The
match between prediction and reality was significantly closer than that achieved by previous models (12). Some false-
positive areas, in eastern South America and Iran, were recorded as of "limited risk" on earlier maps (17), whereas others, in
the southern United States and northern Australia, coincided with successful vector control campaigns. Because these
predictions were based on present-day malaria maps, the disappearance of malaria in historical times from the edges of its
global distribution has effectively been incorporated (18). This itself is a reflection of climatic conditions. In cooler
regions, where mosquito life-spans barely exceed extrinsic incubation periods, transmission cycles are inherently more
fragile. Not only the range of each climatic variable, but also the covariation between variables proved to be important
in setting distributional limits in this model. Biologically, this implies that organisms can cope with extremes of some
variables (e.g., temperature) only if others (e.g., humidity) are at certain levels.
Their models are flawed – more reliable models prove warming doesn’t affect
malaria
David J. Rogers, scientist with Trypanosomiasis and Land-use in Africa Research Group of University of Oxford, and Sarah E.
Randolph, Oxford Tick Research Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, 9-8-2000, “The Global Spread of Malaria
in a Future, Warmer World,” http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/289/5485/1763
The frequent warnings that global climate change will allow falciparum malaria to spread into northern latitudes,
including Europe and large parts of the United States, are based on biological transmission models driven principally by
temperature. These models were assessed for their value in predicting present, and therefore future, malaria distribution. In
an alternative statistical approach, the recorded present-day global distribution of falciparum malaria was used to
establish the current multivariate climatic constraints. These results were applied to future climate scenarios to predict
future distributions, which showed remarkably few changes, even under the most extreme scenarios.
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AT: Malaria
Models are flawed and other factors affect malaria transmission – their authors
concede
Dr. Frank C. Tanser, Dr. Brian Sharp, and Dr. David le Sueur, researchers with the Malaria Research Lead Programme,
Medical Research Council, Overport, Durban, South Africa (Dr. Tanswer is also with The Africa Centre for Health and Population
Studies, Mtubatuba, 11-27-03, “Potential effect of climate change on malaria transmission in Africa,”
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6T1B-4B3N8DT-
B&_user=4257664&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&view=c&_acct=C000022698&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=4
257664&md5=ea612a7a0dbdba3cf2a10b369c40a5a1#secx9
The basis for our model is climatic, and thus has some limitations. For example, areas such as the Limpopo valley (the border
between South Africa and Zimbabwe) that are adjacent to perennial water reservoirs might fail to meet the necessary monthly
rainfall threshold, but could still provide good breeding grounds for vectors. We did not take local demographic and
socioeconomic circumstances into account nor make provision for the effect of malaria control on transmission. The
inability of global circulation models to accurately predict the current climate from retrospective data,26 has led to a
debate about their application. As our understanding of global climate dynamics increases and models are increasingly able
to handle this complexity, projections of the probable response of the climate system to any scenario are likely to improve and
the model will constitute a valid baseline for assessment.
The resurgence of highland malaria cannot necessarily be attributed to recent climate change. Malaria is a complex
disease that is affected by a range of factors in addition to climate—a recent analysis of four highland sites in Africa where
large increases in malaria cases were noted showed no large climatic change during resurgence or the last century.27 Some of
these cases were attributed to factors such as drug resistance, breakdown of control programmes, and land-use change
(although doubts have been raised about the suitability of the data used in the analysis28). However, climate provides the
framework within which transmission is possible and other factors (except those that determine the availability of breeding
sites—irrigation, construction of dams, or removal of potential breeding sites) can affect malaria transmission only in spatio-
temporal zones that are climatically suitable.
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AT: Malaria
Warming won’t affect malaria spread – models fail and social factors outweigh
Vicki Brower, freelance science writer reporting in Nature journal, 9-1-01, “Vector-borne diseases and global warming: are both on
an upward swing?” http://www.nature.com/embor/journal/v2/n9/full/embor328.html
But there are many factors to take into account. 'I believe that with global warming, patterns of disease could change, but
how that will occur is unclear', Kitron cautioned. Global warming could create a mixture of conditions that is as yet
unknown; for example, less moisture or rainfall and higher temperatures could undo the effects of warming, he added.
He also pointed out that social causes are at least as important risk factors as rising temperatures. Paul Reiter of the
Centers of Disease Control (CDC) in Atlanta, GA, supports Kitron, noting that the life-cycle and distribution of vectors and
infectious diseases are far more complex than others acknowledge. Reiter cited numerous cases of historical malaria
epidemics during record cold temperatures in specific regions, such as the first major epidemic of dengue in 1780s in
Philadelphia where A. aegypti survived the winters in basements where water was stored, malaria epidemics in Russia and
Finland in 1939–40, and in Poland through the 1950s. 'There is tremendous distribution of vector-borne diseases in temperate
regions, and this has always been the case', he said. 'It is unfortunate that public perception is distorted by people who know
little about the field'. This line of thinking is 'politically sexy' but reductionist, he said.
In April 2001, an interdisciplinary committee of the National Academy of Sciences' National Research Council (NRC)
published a report arguing that there is 'little solid scientific evidence' to support warnings that climate change will
promote an upsurge of dengue, malaria and yellow fever. The report noted that a number of the studies used to support the
correlation of vector-borne diseases with global warming were short-term in focus, and covered relatively small areas of
territory. Furthermore, models based on such studies do not consider other factors, such as sanitation, land use, public
health practices, and other behaviour. One example the report gave is the incidence of dengue fever on either side of the US–
Mexican border. In the 16 years after 1980, there were over 50 000 confirmed cases of dengue in the three Mexican states
bordering the Rio Grande. During the same time period, there were fewer than 100 cases on the Texas side. Public health
differences—not climate—account for this discrepancy; screens on windows, air-conditioning and fewer hours spent at
home result in a lower incidence of mosquito bites in Texas.
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AT: Marine Biodiversity

Overfishing makes marine biodiversity loss inevitable
United Nations Environment Programme 2006 ”Overfishing: a threat to marine biodiversity”
http://www.un.org/events/tenstories/06/story.asp?storyID=800
Despite its crucial importance for the survival of humanity, marine biodiversity is in ever-greater danger, with the depletion of
fisheries among biggest concerns. Fishing is central to the livelihood and food security of 200 million people, especially in the
developing world, while one of five people on this planet depends on fish as the primary source of protein. According to UN
agencies, aquaculture - the farming and stocking of aquatic organisms including fish, molluscs, crustaceans and aquatic plants - is
growing more rapidly than all other animal food producing sectors. But amid facts and figures about aquaculture's soaring
worldwide production rates, other, more sobering, statistics reveal that global main marine fish stocks are in jeopardy, increasingly
pressured by overfishing and environmental degradation. “Overfishing cannot continue,” warned Nitin Desai, Secretary General of
the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development, which took place in Johannesburg. “The depletion of fisheries poses a major
threat to the food supply of millions of people.” The Johannesburg Plan of Implementation calls for the establishment of Marine
Protected Areas (MPAs), which many experts believe may hold the key to conserving and boosting fish stocks. Yet, according to
the UN Environment Programme’s (UNEP) World Conservation Monitoring Centre, in Cambridge, UK, less than one per cent of
the world’s oceans and seas are currently in MPAs. The magnitude of the problem of overfishing is often overlooked, given the
competing claims of deforestation, desertification, energy resource exploitation and other biodiversity depletion dilemmas. The
rapid growth in demand for fish and fish products is leading to fish prices increasing faster than prices of meat. As a result,
fisheries investments have become more attractive to both entrepreneurs and governments, much to the detriment of small-scale
fishing and fishing communities all over the world. In the last decade, in the north Atlantic region, commercial fish populations of
cod, hake, haddock and flounder have fallen by as much as 95%, prompting calls for urgent measures. Some are even
recommending zero catches to allow for regeneration of stocks, much to the ire of the fishing industry. According to a Food and
Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimate, over 70% of the world’s fish species are either fully exploited or depleted. The dramatic
increase of destructive fishing techniques worldwide destroys marine mammals and entire ecosystems. FAO reports that illegal,
unreported and unregulated fishing worldwide appears to be increasing as fishermen seek to avoid stricter rules in many places in
response to shrinking catches and declining fish stocks. Few, if any, developing countries and only a limited number of developed
ones are on track to put into effect by this year the International Plan of Action to Prevent, Deter and Eliminate Unreported and
Unregulated Fishing. Despite that fact that each region has its Regional Sea Conventions, and some 108 governments and the
European Commission have adopted the UNEP Global Programme of Action for the Protection of the Marine Environment from
Land based Activities, oceans are cleared at twice the rate of forests.
Overfishing destroys biodiversity—slaughters species while destroying

habitats
Felicia Coleman, associate scholar scientist in the Department of Biological Sciences, Florida State University, Tallahassee, and
Susan L Williams, professor of Environmental Science and Policy at UC, Davis 2002 “Overexploiting marine ecosystem
engineers: potential consequences for biodiversity” Trends in ecology & evolution vol. 17, no1, pp. 40-44
Overfishing is a major environmental problem in the oceans. In addition to the direct loss of the exploited species, the very act
of fishing, particularly with mobile bottom gear, destroys habitat and ultimately results in the loss of biodiversity. Furthermore,
overfishing can create trophic cascades in marine communities that cause similar declines in species richness. These effects are
compounded by indirect effects on habitat that occur through removal of ecological or ecosystem engineers. Mass removal of
species that restructure the architecture of habitat and thus increase its complexity or influence the biogeochemistry of sediments
could have devastating effects on local biodiversity and important water-sediment processes.
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AT: Oceans
Even sensitive oceans won’t form more water in a world of elevated warming –
Labrador Sea proves
Andrew J. Weaver and Claude-Marcel Hillaire (Gordon head of the School of Earth and Ocean Sciences at the University of
Victoria and a Canadian geoscientist of great distinction and a world leader in Quaternary research. He is known for his
groundbreaking research on the environment, climate change, and oceanography. He is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Canada and
professor at l'Université du Québec à Montréal, 4/16/2004, “Global Warming and the next Ice Age,”
http://web.ebscohost.com/ehost/detail?vid=1&hid=14&sid=5e63d5e2-5a5a-4141-a53a-7826e5e7c1bb%40sessionmgr2)
Unquestionable evidence for a substantial reduction of AMO has been found only for intervals such as the Last Glacial Maximum
(LGM) and some short, particularly cold, intervals of the last ice ages (such as those during Heinrich events). During these time
periods, vast ice sheets occupied the Northern Hemisphere, providing a large freshwater source to the North Atlantic through either
the dispersal of huge quantities of icebergs (Heinrich events) or the direct release of meltwater into the most critical sector
associated with the AMO — the northeast Atlantic. On the other hand, the most critical site with respect to sensitivity to
enhanced freshwater supplies from the Arctic has been, and would be, the Labrador Sea ( 10). Indeed, convection could
stop there in response to global warming, as demonstrated by recent modeling experiments, apparently without any major
effect on the overall rate of AMO ( 11). Worthy of mention is the fact that the strong east-west salinity gradient of the North
Atlantic, with more saline waters eastward, seems a robust and permanent feature that was maintained even during the Last Glacial
Maximum, when the rate of AMO was considerably reduced ( 12). A clear picture of the North Atlantic under high freshwater
supply rates arises from its recent history. High freshwater supplies may indeed impede convection in the Labrador Sea because of
their routing along western North Atlantic margins, but this would result in an increased eastward branch of AMO (see the figure).
Further indication for such behavior is found in records of the Last Interglacial Interval. Relatively dilute surface water existed
in the Labrador Sea, preventing intermediate water formation. However, a high-velocity WBUC existed throughout the whole
period, indicating a high AMO along the "eastern route" ( 10).
Oceans and forests are too saturated to absorb any more CO2
David Biello, staff writer from Scientific American, 10-22-07, “Climate Change Pollution Rising—Thanks to Overwhelmed Oceans
and Plants,” http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=climate-change-pollution-rising-thanks-to-overwhelmed-oceans
The world may finally acknowledge that global warming is a major environmental hazard. But new research shows that reducing the
main greenhouse gas behind it may be even more difficult than previously believed. The reason: the world's oceans and forests, which
scientists were counting on to help hold off catastrophic rises in carbon dioxide, are already so full of CO2 that they are losing their
ability to absorb this climate change culprit.
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AT: Resource Wars

Warming doesn’t cause resource wars – corrupt governments do. Blaming
warming allows corrupt governments to continue abuses, turning the
advantage
Idean Salehyan, Professor of Political Science at the University of North Texas, August ’07, “The New Myth About Climate
Change,” http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3922
Dire scenarios like these may sound convincing, but they are misleading. Even worse, they are irresponsible, for they
shift liability for wars and human rights abuses away from oppressive, corrupt governments. Additionally, focusing on
climate change as a security threat that requires a military response diverts attention away from prudent adaptation
mechanisms and new technologies that can prevent the worst catastrophes.
First, aside from a few anecdotes, there is little systematic empirical evidence that resource scarcity and changing
environmental conditions lead to conflict. In fact, several studies have shown that an abundance of natural resources is
more likely to contribute to conflict. Moreover, even as the planet has warmed, the number of civil wars and
insurgencies has decreased dramatically. Data collected by researchers at Uppsala University and the International Peace
Research Institute, Oslo shows a steep decline in the number of armed conflicts around the world. Between 1989 and 2002,
some 100 armed conflicts came to an end, including the wars in Mozambique, Nicaragua, and Cambodia. If global warming
causes conflict, we should not be witnessing this downward trend.
Furthermore, if famine and drought led to the crisis in Darfur, why have scores of environmental catastrophes failed to set
off armed conflict elsewhere? For instance, the U.N. World Food Programme warns that 5 million people in Malawi have
been experiencing chronic food shortages for several years. But famine-wracked Malawi has yet to experience a major
civil war. Similarly, the Asian tsunami in 2004 killed hundreds of thousands of people, generated millions of environmental
refugees, and led to severe shortages of shelter, food, clean water, and electricity. Yet the tsunami, one of the most extreme
catastrophes in recent history, did not lead to an outbreak of resource wars. Clearly then, there is much more to armed
conflict than resource scarcity and natural disasters.
Second, arguing that climate change is a root cause of conflict lets tyrannical governments off the hook. If the
environment drives conflict, then governments bear little responsibility for bad outcomes. That’s why Ban Ki-moon’s
case about Darfur was music to Khartoum’s ears. The Sudanese government would love to blame the West for creating the
climate change problem in the first place. True, desertification is a serious concern, but it’s preposterous to suggest that poor
rainfall—rather than deliberate actions taken by the Sudanese government and the various combatant factions—
ultimately caused the genocidal violence in Sudan. Yet by Moon’s perverse logic, consumers in Chicago and Paris are at
least as culpable for Darfur as the regime in Khartoum.
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AT: Resource Wars

Turn – resource shortage prevents conflict that results from resource
abundance
Many of these projections are highly speculative or simply misleading, betraying the authors’ lack of specialised knowledge of the
realities of inter national security. A case in point is the mischaracterisation of LeBlanc’s position. In fact, LeBlanc made a much more
sophisticated and in some places contrary argument – that when people live in states they will often starve rather than fight, ‘because
the government won’t allow them to fight’.49 Similarly, the proposition that South Korea and Japan would develop nuclear weapons
as they diversify away from fossil fuels to nuclear power is highly questionable because it ignores the very real domestic and
international constraints on either country going nuclear.50 South Korea and Japan have eschewed nuclear weapons despite the fact
that they have long produced much of their electricity from nuclear power plants. It is drawing a long bow indeed to suggest that
abrupt climate change alone would lead either to reconsider their long-standing aversion to nuclear weapons.
Economic incentives prevent resource war escalation

Emily Meierding PhD Student University of Chicago, March 2007. “Strategic Substitution and the Declining Likelihood of
International Resource Wars” Prepared for the International Studies Association Conference; Chicago, IL; March 2007
The prevailing pessimistic view has met with some dissent, arising from a variety of quarters. In a study of international territorial
dispute resolution, Beth Simmons makes the theoretical observation that states possess powerful economic incentives to resolve
territorial conflicts. Stable agreements facilitate trade and international investment. 23 Firm international demarcation also functions
as a credible signal of participant states’ commitment to the rule of law and their respect for private property rights. These
demonstration effects help attract international investment. 24 The presence of natural resources should increase states’ imperative to
resolve border disputes. When international borders are contested, resource ownership is ambiguous. This impedes extractive industry
development and resource sales. Consequently, states possess a powerful incentive to clarify resource control.
Resource scarcity spurs innovation, preventing war

If these intra-disciplinary critics collectively call into question the resource pessimists’ claim that resource scarcity frequently leads to
violent conflict, a more fundamental critique has emerged from resource economists. Resource “cornucopians” argue that the very
concept of scarcity is flawed. Julian Simon, the most prominent of these claimants, asserts that market demand for increasingly scarce
goods inspires technological innovation, which resolves supply problems through improvements in productive efficiency or through
the creation of substitute inputs. When consumers demand a resource, more of it, or of a functional substitute, is supplied. Human
knowledge, he claims, is “the ultimate resource.” The cornucopian argument suggests that natural resource scarcity should not have a
significant impact on the likelihood of conflict. Future resource-inspired violence will be rare
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AT: Resource Wars

Resource scarcity theory’s inherently flawed—ignores potential for
cooperation while forming broad non-falsifiable arguments
In addition to oversampling cases of resource conflict, the environmental security literature pays little attention to the cooperative
activities undertaken by joint resource claimants. States frequently collaborate to develop and distribute shared resources, such as
transborder oil pools and rivers that pass through multiple riparian states. Peaceful resource cooperation may actually exceed
violent resource conflict in the international system. However, the environmental security literature is ill-equipped to assess that
claim. Single case studies of specific resource contests have been more attentive to these dynamics; however, the generalizability
of individual investigations to broader questions of resource conflict versus cooperation is uncertain. The environmental security
approach has also been criticized for the density of its theoretical propositions. The Toronto School, in particular, is chastised for a
lack of theoretical parsimony. The range of environmental changes being examined, combined with the number and density of
causal pathways authors identify, make their theories virtually non-falsifiable. The proliferation of variables and mechanisms also
calls into question the theories’ predictive utility.
Pessimistic resource predictions have empirically failed—increased food

production and 70s oil crisis prove
The pessimists’ predictive record is poor. Their apocalyptic expectations have rarely come to pass. Malthus himself provides a
prominent example of miscalculation; he predicted that Europe would experience an overpopulation-induced famine during the
nineteenth century. Instead, food production consistently kept pace with demand. No Great Power wars were fought over minerals.
The 1970s oil crisis did not lead to blows between major oil-consuming states. And, while the two recent Gulf Wars suggest that
oil has had a more mixed record than most natural resources, I argue that the amount of petroleum-inspired violence occurring in
the background image international system is very low, relative to the extremity of states’ dependence on the commodity. Modern,
developed states do not fight over natural resources.
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AT: Sea Level Rise

Warming decreases sea levels
According to another persistent greenhouse legend, massive flooding will strike major coastal cities, raising horrific scenarios of New
York, London and Shanghai sinking into the tide. However this horror story is a relic of the late 1980s, when climate simulations were
far less precise than they are today. At the time, some experts believed that the Antarctic ice shield could melt, which would in fact
lead to a dramatic 60-meter (197-foot) rise in sea levels. The nuclear industry quickly seized upon and publicized the scenario, which
it recognized as an argument in favor of its emissions-free power plants. But it quickly became apparent that the horrific tale of a
melting South Pole was nothing but fiction. The average temperature in the Antarctic is -30 degrees Celsius. Humanity cannot
possibly burn enough oil and coal to melt this giant block of ice. On the contrary, current climate models suggest that the Antarctic
will even increase in mass: Global warming will cause more water to evaporate, and part of that moisture will fall as snow over
Antarctica, causing the ice shield to grow. As a result, the total rise in sea levels would in fact be reduced by about 5 cm (2 inches).
If sea level does rise, it’s insignificant – less than 0.01 meters
Sarah C. B. Raper, Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia, and Roger J. Braithwaite, researcher at the University of
Manchester, 10-14-05, “Low sea level rise projections from mountain glaciers and icecaps under global warming,”
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v439/n7074/full/nature04448.html
The mean sea level has been projected to rise in the 21st century as a result of global warming1. Such projections of sea
level change depend on estimated future greenhouse emissions and on differing models, but model-average results from a
mid-range scenario (A1B) suggests a 0.387-m rise by 2100 (refs 1, 2). The largest contributions to sea level rise are
estimated to come from thermal expansion (0.288 m) and the melting of mountain glaciers and icecaps (0.106 m), with smaller
inputs from Greenland (0.024 m) and Antarctica (- 0.074 m)1. Here we apply a melt model3 and a geometric volume model4 to
our lower estimate of ice volume5, 6, 7 and assess the contribution of glaciers to sea level rise, excluding those in Greenland
and Antarctica. We provide the first separate assessment of melt contributions from mountain glaciers and icecaps, as well as
an improved treatment of volume shrinkage. We find that icecaps melt more slowly than mountain glaciers, whose area
declines rapidly in the 21st century, making glaciers a limiting source for ice melt. Using two climate models, we project
sea level rise due to melting of mountain glaciers and icecaps to be 0.046 and 0.051 m by 2100, about half that of
previous projections1, 8.
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AT: Storms
Global warming won’t lead to storms
Another widespread fear about global warming -- that it will cause super-storms that could devastate towns and villages with
unprecedented fury -- also appears to be unfounded. Current long-term simulations, at any rate, do not suggest that such a trend will in
fact materialize. "According to our computer model, neither the number nor intensity of storms is increasing," says Jochem Marotzke,
director of the Hamburg-based Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, one of the world's leading climate research centers. "Only the
boundaries of low-pressure zones are changing slightly, meaning that weather is becoming more severe in Scandinavia and less so in
the Mediterranean."
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AT: Wars (Generic)

Even in the tensest circumstances, nuclear war will NEVER break out because
of warming
Richard S.J. Tol and Sebastian Wagner, Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin, Ireland, Institute for Coastal Research,
GKSS Research Centre, 1/15/08, http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publication/working-papers/climatewarwp.pdf
A potentially more serious example is rapid sea level rise in the major deltas of Asia and Africa. Coastal plains are often fertile and
hence densely populated (Nicholls and Small, 2002). Without coastal protection, inundation, erosion and saltwater intrusion would
drive many people to higher grounds (Nicholls and Tol, 2006). They may resettle peacefully, or start quarrelling with their new
neighbours. One can speculate about the consequences of large-scale migrations today. In West Africa, for instance, the situation is
already so tense that additional refugees are unlikely to do any good – note that the coasts of Cameroon, Gabon and Nigeria are
particularly vulnerable to sea level rise. Similarly, forced migration of large numbers of Bengali from the coastal plain to the hills of
northern Indian and Bangladesh would not be without problems either, and may even escalate to nuclear war. However, these impacts
will not be on today’s world. Sixty-seven years ago, Western Europe was at war. In 2075, South Asia and West Africa may be stable
and prosperous.
Turn – warming prevents conflict

GKSS Research Centre, 1/15/08, http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publication/working-papers/climatewarwp.pdf
We investigate the relationship between a thousand-year history of violent conflict in Europe and various reconstructions of
temperature and precipitation. We find that conflict was more intense during colder periods. This relationship is weakening over time,
and is not robust to the details of the climate reconstruction or to the sample period. We thus confirm Zhang et al. (2006, Climatic
Change, 76, 459-477) that, at least in temperate climates, global warming would, if anything, lead to reduced violent conflict.
Warming doesn’t lead to war

GKSS Research Centre, 1/1508, http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publication/working-papers/climatewarwp.pdf
In this paper, we study the relationship between climate change and violent conflict over the past millennium in Europe. Our results do
not show a clear-cut picture: We present some evidence that abnormally cold periods were abnormally violent, as do Zhang et al.
(2006). However, we also show that this evidence is not particularly robust. If one has strong priors that climate change causes
conflict, our results provide confirmation. However, if one has strong priors that there is no link, our results do not overthrow such
doubt. If anything, cold implies violence, and this effect is much weaker in the modern world than it was in mediaeval times. This
implies that future global warming is not likely to lead to (civil) war between (within) European countries. Should anyone ever
seriously have believed that, this paper does put that idea to rest.
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**NEG OFFENSE
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Ice Age 1NC

A. Uniqueness – we’re on the brink of an ice age now, in a temporary warm
period
Doug McDougall, President of MacDougall Biomedical Communications, 4/05,
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1134/is_3_114/ai_n13665002
It may seem counterintuitive, but it's no secret to geologists that we are living in an ice age. The simple fact is that throughout most
of the 4.5 billion years of history on our planet, the climate has seldom been as frigid as it has been of late. By "of late" I don't
mean the past century or so, which has been characterized by warming trends, but the past several million years, when planetary
temperatures took a nosedive. The result has been a succession of massive ice sheets that bulldozed their way into what were once
temperate, or even tropical, lands. Of course, even ice ages have occasional respites--warm periods during which the ice retreats.
We are living in one now, a kind of global Indian summer. It is so temperate these days that it is hard to imagine the ice-locked
world of 18,000 years ago, when glaciers sometimes two miles thick covered North America as far south as central Pennsylvania.
Signs of the most recent glaciation are all around us, though.
B. Link – Warming prevents the ice age – elongates the warm period
Andrea Thompson (Staff writer for Livescience, 8/7/07, “Global Warming Good News: No more Ice Ages,”
http://www.livescience.com/environment/070907_co2_iceage.html)
Ice ages naturally occur about every 100,000 years or so as the pattern of Earth's orbit changes with time and alters the way the sun
strikes the planet's surface. When less solar energy hits a given area of the surface, temperatures become cooler (this is what causes
the difference in temperatures between summer and winter). Long-term changes in Earth's orbit that cause less solar energy to hit the
surface can cool down summer temperatures so that less ice melts at the poles. If ice sheets and glaciers don't melt a bit in the
summer, the ice accumulates and starts to advance—in past ice ages, sheets of ice covered all of Canada and most of the Northern
United States. The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is also an important factor in triggering an ice age. In the past, lower
carbon dioxide levels (caused by natural processes) helped cool the Earth and again allowed ice to advance. Rising carbon dioxide
levels, as is the case with global warming, can have the opposite effect. No more ice ages Through the burning of fossil fuels, carbon
dioxide is now accumulating in the atmosphere. Tyrrell and his colleagues used a model to study what would happen if carbon
dioxide continued to be emitted and how that would affect the long-term balance of carbon dioxide in the air and the ocean's
chemistry. The ocean is absorbing some of the carbon dioxide emitted into the air, which is causing it to become more acidic
(similarly, the bubbles of carbon dioxide dissolved in your soda are what give it acidity). Tyrrell and his team's model shows that
carbon dioxide levels will be higher far into the future than previously predicted, because the acidifying ocean will dissolve more
calcium carbonate from the shells of marine organisms, which acts as a buffer against acidification. But this buffer can only help to a
certain point, and eventually the ocean won't be able to take up any more carbon dioxide. "It can't just keep taking it up," said Joan
Kleypas of the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research, who was not involved in the study. The model results, detailed in a
recent issue of the journal Tellus, project that 8 to 10 percent of the carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere will remain there for
thousands of years, causing levels of the greenhouse gas to equilibrate in the atmosphere at twice their pre-industrial levels. "It won't
go back to original levels," Kleypas told LiveScience. Even if we burn only a quarter of the Earth's total reserves of fossil fuels
(currently we have burned less than one tenth of reserves), the carbon dioxide remaining in the atmosphere could cause the next ice
age to be skipped because ice sheets and glaciers will have melted and won't be able to reform substantially, Tyrrell found. In fact,
burning up all of Earth's reserves would prevent the next five ice ages, the model shows, he said. "Our research shows why
atmospheric CO2 will not return to pre-industrial levels after we stop burning fossil fuels," Tyrrell said. "It shows that if we use up all
known fossil fuels it doesn't matter at what rate we burn them. The result would be the same if we burned them at present rates or at
more moderate rates; we would still get the same eventual ice-age-prevention result."
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Ice Age 1NC

C. Impact – Ice Ages will lead to extinction
L.David Roper, Virginia, Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1/23/05, http://www.roperld.com/science/tempsolinsatc.pdf
Surely, prior to the Next Glacial Maximum about 100 kiloyears in the future surviving Humans will migrate to European, Asian and
also American refugia. (See Figure 12.) Surviving North Americans will probably migrate to Central America. A glance at Figure 12
should convince that an exodus to refugia could happen as early as 50, or even 20, kiloyears in the future. With the Human
development of weapons of mass and indiscriminant destruction and demonstrated willingness to use them when challenged by other
Humans, it is likely that Humans will contribute to their own die offs as they struggle for survival as the Next Major Ice Age begins to
take its Human toll. It is not clear that Humans will survive all of the three predicted coldest periods of the Next Major Ice Age. (See
Figure 12.) The first and mildest, at about 20 kiloyears in the future, is probably the most dangerous, as there may be still enough of
the destructive technology around then
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Ice Age Uniqueness – Ice Age Soon

Another ice age is coming
The maxim ''what goes around comes around'' applies to few things more aptly than ice ages. In a rhythm attuned to regular
wiggles in Earth's orbit and spin, 10 eras of spreading ice sheets and falling seas have come and gone over the last million years.
Through that span, in fact, the cold spells have so dominated that geophysicists regard warm periods like the present one, called
the Holocene, as the oddities. Indeed, the scientific name for these periods -- interglacials -- reflects the exceptional nature of such
times. The next ice age almost certainly will reach its peak in about 80,000 years, but debate persists about how soon it will begin,
with the latest theory being that the human influence on the atmosphere may substantially delay the transition. This is no mere
intellectual exercise. The equable conditions of the Holocene, which has lasted 10,000 years so far, have enabled the flowering of
agriculture, technology, mobility and resulting explosive population growth that has made the human species a global force.
We may have an ice age before the 2100- huge temperature changes
John Houghton (“Global warming” 5/4/2005, http://www.iop.org/EJ/article/0034-4885/68/6/R02/rpp5_6_R02.pdf?request-
id=089cf8fd-4311-4421-a041-68fb57103cef, co-chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) working group. He
was the lead editor of first three IPCC reports. He was professor in atmospheric physics at the University of Oxford, former Chief
Executive at the Met Office and founder of the Hadley Centre.).
To develop projections of future climate, it is necessary first to turn the emission scenarios into greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere (see section 4 and figure 18(b)) and then to radiative forcing (see section 5). Climate models incorporating the profiles of
radiative forcing can then be run into the future so as to provide simulations of future climate. We have noted earlier that a measure
for climate change that has been widely used is the change in global average temperature. Figure 19 shows projections of global
atmospheric temperature rise from pre-industrial times to the end of the 21st century. It shows an increase of about 0.6°C up to the
year 2000 and an increase ranging from about 2°C to about 6°C by 2100, the wide range resulting from the very large uncertainty
regarding future emissions and also from the uncertainty that remains regarding the feedbacks associated with the climate response to
the changing atmospheric composition (as described in section 6)9. Compared with the temperature changes normally experienced
from day to day and throughout the year, changes of between 2°C and 6°C may not seem very large. But it is in fact a large amount
when considering globally averaged temperature. Compare it with the 5°C or 6°C change in global average temperature that occurs
between the middle of an ice age and the warm period in between ice ages (figure 8). The changes projected for the 21st century are
from one-third to a whole ice age in terms of the degree of climate change!
Next Ice Age is coming

L.David Roper, Virginia, Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1/23/05, http://www.roperld.com/science/tempsolinsatc.pdf
In this article a “Major Ice Age” is defined as the period of about 115 kiloyears between two Major Interglacials surrounding the
Major Ice Age. (See Figure 1.) The “Major Interglacials” are of about 5-15 kiloyears duration and are the times when the Earth’s
temperature is at a high maximum at the edges of a Major Ice Age period. The temperature differential between the low point
(Glacial Maximum) of a Major Ice Age and the Major Interglacial that follows it is about 9-12 degrees Celsius. The Earth left the
Last Major Ice Age to enter the Present Major Interglacial about 10 kiloyears ago and is on the verge of entering the Next Major
Ice Age. That is, the Earth is on the high-time edge of the Present Major Interglacial. The Last Glacial Maximum was about 20
kiloyears ago. There have been eight Major Ice Ages of varying severity and variability over the last 900 kiloyears (Alley, 2001;
Wilson, 2000). The Last Major Interglacial is called the Eemian Interglacial.
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Ice Age Links – Warming Stops Ice Age

Warming prevents Ice age
FRED HOYLE and CHANDRA WICKRAMASINGHE, School of Mathematics, Cardiff University, 7/27/00,
http://www.springerlink.com/content/ng20078362640715/fulltext.pdf
The most important factor that controls the Earth’s climate is the greenhouse effect. The greenhouse effect raises the Earth’s
temperature by about 40 _C above what it would otherwise have been. Without the greenhouse effect the Earth would be locked
into a permanent ice-age. This fact gives the lie to those constantly seeking to persuade the public that the greenhouse effect is a
bad thing greatly to be feared. The reverse is true. The greenhouse effect is an exceedingly good thing, without which those of us
who happen to live in temperate latitudes would be buried under several hundreds of metres of ice. Water vapour and carbon
dioxide are the main greenhouse gases. Carbon dioxide produces essentially the whole of its effect through absorption at infrared
wavelengths from about 13.5 _m to 17.5 _m. Because the blocking by carbon dioxide over this interval is large, the band having
steeply-falling wings, additions of carbon dioxide have only a second-order influence on the greenhouse effect and are
inconsequential compared to the major factors which control the Earth’s climate. The blocking effect of water vapour rises all the
way from 17.5 _m to almost 100 _m.
Warming prevents the start of another Ice Age

Berger and M. F. Loutre, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut d'Astronomie et de Géophysique G. Lemaître, 2 Chemin du
Cyclotron, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium, 8/23/02, http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/summary/297/5585/1287
When paleoclimatologists gathered in 1972 to discuss how and when the present warm period would end (1), a slide into the next
glacial seemed imminent. But more recent studies point toward a different future: a long interglacial that may last another 50,000
years. An interglacial is an uninterrupted warm interval during which global climate reaches at least the preindustrial level of warmth.
Based on geological records available in 1972, the last two interglacials (including the Eemian, ~125,000 years ago) were believed to
have lasted about 10,000 years. This is about the length of the current warm interval--the Holocene--to date. Assuming a similar
duration for all interglacials, the scientists concluded that "it is likely that the present-day warm epoch will terminate relatively soon if
man does not intervene" (1, p. 267). Some assumptions made 30 years ago have since been questioned. Past interglacials may have
been longer than originally assumed (2). Some, including marine isotope stage 11 (MIS-11, 400,000 years ago), may have been
warmer than at present (3). We are also increasingly aware of the intensification of the greenhouse effect by human activities
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CO2 prevents Ice Ages by stopping glacier formation
Berger and M. F. Loutre, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut d'Astronomie et de Géophysique G. Lemaître, 2 Chemin
du Cyclotron, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium, 8/23/02, http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/summary/297/5585/1287
Such a long interglacial appears to have occurred only once in the last 500,000 years, at MIS-11 (2, 3, 16). At this time, astronomical
insolation and some proxy climate indicators were similar to those of today. The CO2 concentration was at an interglacial level
[slightly above 280 ppmv (8)]. Simulations with these values (16) also show a particularly long interglacial, illustrating the importance
of CO2 concentrations during periods when the amplitude of insolation variation is too small to drive the climate system. The present-
day CO2 concentration of 370 ppmv is already well above typical interglacial values of ~290 ppmv. Taking into account
anthropogenic perturbations, we have studied further in which the CO2 concentration increases to up to 750 ppmv over the next 200
years, returning to natural levels by 1000 years from now (13, 15). The results suggest that, under very small insolation variations,
there is a threshold value of CO2 above which the Greenland Ice Sheet disappears (see the bottom panel of the figure). The climate
system may take 50,000 years to assimilate the impacts of human activities during the early third millennium. In this case, an
"irreversible greenhouse effect" could become the most likely future climate. If the Greenland and west Antarctic Ice Sheets disappear
completely, then today's "Anthropocene" (17) may only be a transition between the Quaternary and the next geological period. J.
Murray Mitchell Jr. already predicted in 1972 that "The net impact of human activities on the climate of the future decades and
centuries is quite likely to be one of warming and therefore favorable to the perpetuation of the present interglacial" [(1), p. 436]. This
scenario will have to be confirmed with models that better simulate ice sheets and ocean circulation. Recent results by Peltier and
Vettoretti (18) are encouraging. With the Canadian climate general circulation model, they showed that under the present-day
insolation regime and preindustrial CO2 concentration, no glacial inception is possible. In contrast, the model is able to simulate a
glacial transition at the end of the Eemian.
Increased oceanic C02 absorption prevents next ice age

Fred Pierce (environmental reporter for the New Scientist, 7/22/04, ” Fossil-fuel hangover may block ice ages,”
http://www.science.org.au/nova/newscientist/106ns_004.htm)
The fossil fuels we burn today may leave an atmospheric "hangover" lasting hundreds of thousands of years, which may cause
enough residual warming to prevent the onset of the next ice age. This is the most far-reaching disruption of long-term planetary
processes yet suggested for human activity. The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change describes carbon dioxide as
having a lifetime in the atmosphere of between five and 200 years before it is ultimately absorbed by the oceans. In fact, as much
as one-tenth of the CO2 we are emitting now will linger in the air for at least 100,000 years, and perhaps much longer, says Toby
Tyrrell of the UK's National Oceanography Centre in Southampton. "It is often assumed that the Earth will always recover from
perturbations. But our research shows that it doesn't necessarily behave like this," says Tyrrell. "It isn't always inherently self-
rectifying." Tyrrell and his colleagues used mathematical models to study what would happen to marine chemistry in a
greenhouse world. As the ocean absorbs ever more CO2 from the atmosphere, it becomes more acid and so dissolves more calcium
carbonate from the shells of marine organisms. This in turn reduces the oceans' ability to absorb more CO2 (see Diagram), leaving
more greenhouse gas in the atmosphere.
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Even with the most modest estimates, warming will stave off the next ice age
for half a million years
Fred Pierce (environmental reporter for the New Scientist, 7/22/04, ” Fossil-fuel hangover may block ice ages,”
http://www.science.org.au/nova/newscientist/106ns_004.htm)
This complication has been suggested before, notably by David Archer of the University of Chicago. Tyrrell's analysis substantiates
Archer's suspicions, providing a firm estimate of just how big, and how long-lasting, the fossil-fuel hangover is likely to be (Tellus B,
vol 59, p 664). The effect may be great enough to prevent the next ice age, Tyrrell found. Ice ages occur roughly every 100,000 years.
The chill begins when wobbles in the planet's orbit marginally change where solar radiation hits the Earth. This is enough to trigger
the growth of ice caps. But for reasons that are not yet clear, this initial cooling also causes the oceans to draw CO2 out of the air.
Starved of this greenhouse gas, the atmosphere's temperature nosedives until much of the planet is covered in ice. Atmospheric CO2 is
now at 380 parts per million, up from a pre-industrial level of 280 ppm. An analysis by Archer two years ago, using models linking
climate and ice sheets, suggested that atmospheric CO2 levels above 560 ppm would almost certainly be enough to prevent the global
cooling that now triggers an ice age every 100,000 years or so. Even levels of 400 ppm would make such cooling less likely. Tyrrell's
new analysis of ocean chemistry suggests that if CO2 levels in the air rise to 900 ppm by 2100, as predicted by the IPCC's "business as
usual" scenario, there would be little chance they would fall below 560 ppm in time for the next ice age to appear on schedule or,
possibly, at all. While that might sound to some like a good thing, the short-term warming caused by that much carbon dioxide is
likely to cause such severe disruption that it would not be good policy. Further CO2 releases, from the burning of all known fossil
fuels, for example, could postpone the next ice age for at least half a million years. Only by then could nature reabsorb the excess
carbon - mainly because it would be used up as part of the slow chemical weathering of rock.
Burning fossil fuels prevents Ice Ages

Toby Tyrrell (the University of Southampton's School of Ocean and Earth Science at the National Oceanography Centre,
7/27/07, “Next Ice age delayed by rising CO2 levels,” http://www.soton.ac.uk/mediacentre/news/2007/aug/07_100.shtml)
Future ice ages may be delayed by up to half a million years by our burning of fossil fuels. That is the implication of recent work by
Dr Toby Tyrrell of the University of Southampton's School of Ocean and Earth Science at the National Oceanography Centre,
Southampton. According to New Scientist magazine, which features Dr Tyrrell's research this week, this work demonstrates the most
far-reaching disruption of long-term planetary processes yet suggested for human activity. Dr Tyrrell's team used a mathematical
model to study what would happen to marine chemistry in a world with ever-increasing supplies of the greenhouse gas, carbon
dioxide. The world's oceans are absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere but in doing so they are becoming more acidic. This in turn is
dissolving the calcium carbonate in the shells produced by surface-dwelling marine organisms, adding even more carbon to the
oceans. The outcome is elevated carbon dioxide for far longer than previously assumed. Computer modelling in 2004 by a then
oceanography undergraduate student at the University, Stephanie Castle, first interested Dr Tyrrell and colleague Professor John
Shepherd in the problem. They subsequently developed a theoretical analysis to validate the plausibility of the phenomenon. The
work, which is part-funded by the Natural Environment Research Council, confirms earlier ideas of David Archer of the University of
Chicago, who first estimated the impact rising CO2 levels would have on the timing of the next ice age. Dr Tyrrell said: 'Our research
shows why atmospheric CO2 will not return to pre-industrial levels after we stop burning fossil fuels. It shows that it if we use up all
known fossil fuels it doesn't matter at what rate we burn them. The result would be the same if we burned them at present rates or at
more moderate rates; we would still get the same eventual ice-age-prevention result.' Ice ages occur around every 100,000 years as the
pattern of Earth's orbit alters over time. Changes in the way the sun strikes the Earth allows for the growth of ice caps, plunging the
Earth into an ice age. But it is not only variations in received sunlight that determine the descent into an ice age; levels of atmospheric
CO2 are also important. Humanity has to date burnt about 300 Gt C of fossil fuels. This work suggests that even if only 1000 Gt C
(gigatonnes of carbon) are eventually burnt (out of total reserves of about 4000 Gt C) then it is likely that the next ice age will be
skipped. Burning all recoverable fossil fuels could lead to avoidance of the next five ice ages.
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Global warming ultimately delays the effects of an ice age- a net positive
outcome
Others have proposed that an earlier warm era that lasted even longer -- 30,000 years -- was a better model for the Holocene. But
many experts still say they are convinced that the current warmth should, under the influence of orbital cycles alone, near an end ''any
millennium now,'' as Dr. Richard A. Muller, a physicist at the University of California at Berkeley, puts it. But the planet is feeling a
new influence, that of people. Humans may delay the dawn of the next ice age by a millennium or two, or even longer, many climate
experts say, as Earth's long-buried stores of coal, oil and other carbon-rich fossil fuels are burned, releasing billions of tons of carbon
dioxide and other heat-trapping greenhouse gases. That insulating blanket has a bigger climatic influence than the slight flux in
incoming solar energy from changes in Earth's orientation relative to the Sun, said Dr. James A. Hansen, the director of NASA's
Goddard Institute for Space Studies. ''We have taken over control of the mechanisms that determine the climate change,'' he said.
Other scientists, while agreeing with this thesis for the short term, say that eventually the buffering properties of the atmosphere,
ocean and Earth will restore balance, returning most of the liberated carbon to long-term storage and allowing the orbital rhythm once
again to dominate. ''Orbital changes are in a slow dance leading to a peak 80,000 years from now,'' said Dr. Eric J. Barron, the dean of
the College of Earth and Mineral Sciences at Penn State. ''I can hardly imagine that human influences won't have run their course by
that time.'' It may seem that human-driven global warming, although perhaps a disaster on the scale of centuries, may be a good thing
in the long run if it fends off the next ice age awhile.
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Warming stops ice age – Agricultural Revolution proves
For our experiment, we reduced the greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere to the values they would have reached today
without early farming or industrial emissions. The resulting simulation showed that our planet would be almost two degrees
C cooler than it is now--a significant difference. In comparison, the global mean temperature at the last glacial maximum
20,000 years ago was only five to six degrees C colder than it is today. In effect, current temperatures would be well on
the way toward typical glacial temperatures had it not been for the greenhouse gas contributions from early farming
practices and later industrialization. I had also initially proposed that new ice sheets might have begun to form in the far north
if this natural cooling had been allowed to proceed. Other researchers had shown previously that parts of far northeastern
Canada might be ice covered today if the world were cooler by just 1.5 to two degrees C--the same amount of cooling
that our experiment suggested has been offset by the greenhouse gas anomalies. The later modeling effort with my Wisconsin
colleagues showed that snow would now persist into late summer in two areas of northeastern Canada: Baffin Island, just east
of the mainland, and Labrador, farther south. Because any snow that survives throughout the summer will accumulate in
thicker piles year by year and eventually become glacial ice, these results suggest that a new ice age would have begun in
northeast Canada several millennia ago, at least on a small scale. This conclusion is startlingly different from the traditional
view that human civilization blossomed within a period of warmth that nature provided. As I see it, nature would have
cooled the earth's climate, but our ancestors kept it warm by discovering agriculture.
Warming stops ice age, which is thousands of years overdue

GREENHOUSE EFFECT from human activities has warded off a glaciation that otherwise would have begun about
5,000 years ago. Early human agricultural activities produced enough greenhouse gases to offset most of the natural
cooling trend during preindustrial times [yellow], warming the planet by an average of almost 0.8 degree Celsius. That
early warming effect [a] rivals the 0.6 degree Celsius [b] warming measured in the past century of rapid
industrialization [orange]. Once most fossil fuels are depleted and the temperature rise caused by greenhouse gases
peaks, the earth will cool toward the next glaciation-- now thousands of years overdue.
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Ice Age Impact – Ice Age  Extinction

A new ice age will wipe out the world
Phil Chapmen (Staff writer for the Australian, 4/23/08, “Sorry to ruin the fun, but an ice age cometh,”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23583376-7583,00.html)
What is scary about the picture is that there is only one tiny sunspot. Disconcerting as it may be to true believers in global warming,
the average temperature on Earth has remained steady or slowly declined during the past decade, despite the continued increase in the
atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, and now the global temperature is falling precipitously. All four agencies that track
Earth's temperature (the Hadley Climate Research Unit in Britain, the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, the
Christy group at the University of Alabama, and Remote Sensing Systems Inc in California) report that it cooled by about 0.7C in
2007. This is the fastest temperature change in the instrumental record and it puts us back where we were in 1930. If the temperature
does not soon recover, we will have to conclude that global warming is over. There is also plenty of anecdotal evidence that 2007 was
exceptionally cold. It snowed in Baghdad for the first time in centuries, the winter in China was simply terrible and the extent of
Antarctic sea ice in the austral winter was the greatest on record since James Cook discovered the place in 1770. It is generally not
possible to draw conclusions about climatic trends from events in a single year, so I would normally dismiss this cold snap as
transient, pending what happens in the next few years. This is where SOHO comes in. The sunspot number follows a cycle of
somewhat variable length, averaging 11 years. The most recent minimum was in March last year. The new cycle, No.24, was
supposed to start soon after that, with a gradual build-up in sunspot numbers. It didn't happen. The first sunspot appeared in January
this year and lasted only two days. A tiny spot appeared last Monday but vanished within 24 hours. Another little spot appeared this
Monday. Pray that there will be many more, and soon. The reason this matters is that there is a close correlation between variations in
the sunspot cycle and Earth's climate. The previous time a cycle was delayed like this was in the Dalton Minimum, an especially cold
period that lasted several decades from 1790. Northern winters became ferocious: in particular, the rout of Napoleon's Grand Army
during the retreat from Moscow in 1812 was at least partly due to the lack of sunspots. That the rapid temperature decline in 2007
coincided with the failure of cycle No.24 to begin on schedule is not proof of a causal connection but it is cause for concern. It is time
to put aside the global warming dogma, at least to begin contingency planning about what to do if we are moving into another little ice
age, similar to the one that lasted from 1100 to 1850. There is no doubt that the next little ice age would be much worse than the
previous one and much more harmful than anything warming may do. There are many more people now and we have become
dependent on a few temperate agricultural areas, especially in the US and Canada. Global warming would increase agricultural output,
but global cooling will decrease it. Millions will starve if we do nothing to prepare for it (such as planning changes in agriculture to
compensate), and millions more will die from cold-related diseases. There is also another possibility, remote but much more serious.
The Greenland and Antarctic ice cores and other evidence show that for the past several million years, severe glaciation has almost
always afflicted our planet. The bleak truth is that, under normal conditions, most of North America and Europe are buried under
about 1.5km of ice. This bitterly frigid climate is interrupted occasionally by brief warm interglacials, typically lasting less than
10,000 years. The interglacial we have enjoyed throughout recorded human history, called the Holocene, began 11,000 years ago, so
the ice is overdue. We also know that glaciation can occur quickly: the required decline in global temperature is about 12C and it can
happen in 20 years. The next descent into an ice age is inevitable but may not happen for another 1000 years. On the other hand, it
must be noted that the cooling in 2007 was even faster than in typical glacial transitions. If it continued for 20 years, the temperature
would be 14C cooler in 2027. By then, most of the advanced nations would have ceased to exist, vanishing under the ice, and the rest
of the world would be faced with a catastrophe beyond imagining.
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Ice Age Impact – Ice Age  Extinction

Ice ages and global cooling have empirically lead to complete extinction
Agençe France-Presse (“Earth’s wobble linked to extinctions,” 10/12/2006,
http://www.abc.net.au/science/news/stories/2006/1763328.htm).
Climate change, naturally induced by tiny shifts in Earth's rotational axis and orbit, periodically wipes out species of mammals, a
study says. Palaeontologists have long puzzled over fossil records that, remarkably, suggest mammal species tend to last around two
and a half million years before becoming extinct. Climate experts and biologists led by Jan van Dam at the University of Utrecht in
the Netherlands, overlaid a picture of species emergence and extinction with changes that occur in Earth's orbit and axis. The Earth's
orbit is not a perfect circle. It is slightly elliptical, and the ellipticality itself goes through cycles of change that span roughly 100,000
and 400,000 years. Its axis, likewise, is not perfectly perpendicular but has a slight wobble, rather like a poorly-balanced child's top,
which goes through cycles of 21,000 years. In addition, the axis, as schoolbooks tell us, is also tilted, and this tilt also varies in a cycle
of 41,000 years. These three shifts in Earth's pattern of movement are relatively minor compared with those of other planets. But they
can greatly influence the amount of heat and light the Earth receives from the Sun. The effect can be amplified, causing global
cooling, affecting precipitation patterns and even creating ice ages in higher latitudes, when two or all the cycles peak together.
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CO2 1NC Module

A. Unique Link – C02 is the lifeblood of plants – it increases their water use
efficiency, enhances stomatas, allows for plants and animals to live in
uninhabitable places, prevents soil erosion, solves all sorts of environmental
stress, and solves worldwide starvation
The Idsos [Sherwood Idso, Keith Idso, and Craig Idso] [C02 science magazine Volume 6, Number 37] 9/10/03
In a broad review of the scientific literature, Idso (2001) describes a number of biological consequences of elevated atmospheric CO2
concentrations. The best known of these important impacts is probably CO2's aerial fertilization effect, which works its wonders on
plants that utilize all three of the major biochemical pathways of photosynthesis (C3, C4 and CAM). In the case of herbaceous plants,
this phenomenon typically boosts their productivities by about a third in response to a 300 ppm increase in the air's CO2 content,
while it enhances the growth of woody plants by 50% or more (see our website's Plant Growth Data section). Next comes plant water
use efficiency, which may be defined as the amount of organic matter produced per unit of water transpired to the atmosphere. This
parameter is directly enhanced by the aerial fertilization effect of atmospheric CO2 enrichment, as well as by its anti-transpirant
effect, which is produced by CO2-induced decreases in the number density and degree of openness of leaf stomatal apertures that
occur at higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Here, too, CO2-induced percentage increases as large as, or even larger than, those
exhibited by plant productivity are commonplace. One of the important ramifications of this CO2-induced increase in plant water use
efficiency is the fact that it enables plants to grow and reproduce in areas that were previously too dry for them. With consequent
increases in ground cover in these regions, the adverse effects of wind- and water-induced soil erosion are also reduced. Hence, there
is a tendency for desertification to be reversed and for vast tracts of previously unproductive land to become supportive of more
abundant animal life, both above- and below-ground, in what could appropriately be called a "greening of the earth." In addition to
helping vegetation overcome the stress of limited water supplies, elevated levels of atmospheric CO2 help plants to better cope with
other environmental stresses, such as low soil fertility, low light intensity, high soil and water salinity, high air temperature, various
oxidative stresses and the stress of herbivory. When confronted with the specter of global warming, for example, many experiments
have revealed that concomitant enrichment of the air with CO2 tends to increase the temperature at which plants function at their
optimum, often making them even better suited to the warmer environment than they were to the cooler environment to which they
were originally adapted. Under the most stressful of such conditions, in fact, extra CO2 sometimes is the deciding factor in
determining whether a plant lives or dies. These benefits of atmospheric CO2 enrichment apply to both agricultural and natural
ecosystems; and as Wittwer (1995) has noted, "the rising level of atmospheric CO2 could be the one global natural resource that is
progressively increasing food production and total biological output in a world of otherwise diminishing natural resources of land,
water, energy, minerals, and fertilizer." This phenomenon is thus a means, he says, "of inadvertently increasing the productivity of
farming systems and other photosynthetically active ecosystems," and that "the effects know no boundaries and both developing and
developed countries are, and will be, sharing equally."
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CO2 1NC Module

B. Impacts –
1. Decrease in crops yields cause resource wars, mass starvation, atrocity, and
World War III.
The population-crash scenario is surely the most appalling. Plummeting crop yields will cause some powerful countries to try to take
over their neighbors or distant lands — if only because their armies, unpaid and lacking food, will go marauding, both at home and
across the borders. The better-organized countries will attempt to use their armies, before they fall apart entirely, to take over countries
with significant remaining resources, driving out or starving their inhabitants if not using modern weapons to accomplish the same
end: eliminating competitors for the remaining food. This will be a worldwide problem — and could easily lead to a Third World War
— but Europe's vulnerability is particularly easy to analyze. The last abrupt cooling, the Younger Dryas, drastically altered Europe's
climate as far east as Ukraine. Present-day Europe has more than 650 million people. It has excellent soils, and largely grows its own
food. It could no longer do so if it lost the extra warming from the North Atlantic. There is another part of the world with the same
good soil, within the same latitudinal band, which we can use for a quick comparison. Canada lacks Europe's winter warmth and
rainfall, because it has no equivalent of the North Atlantic Current to preheat its eastbound weather systems. Canada's agriculture
supports about 28 million people. If Europe had weather like Canada's, it could feed only one out of twenty-three present-day
Europeans. Any abrupt switch in climate would also disrupt food-supply routes. The only reason that two percent of our population
can feed the other 98 percent is that we have a well-developed system of transportation and middlemen — but it is not very robust.
The system allows for large urban populations in the best of times, but not in the case of widespread disruptions. Natural disasters
such as hurricanes and earthquakes are less troubling than abrupt coolings for two reasons: they're short (the recovery period starts the
next day) and they're local or regional (unaffected citizens can help the overwhelmed). There is, increasingly, international
cooperation in response to catastrophe — but no country is going to be able to rely on a stored agricultural surplus for even a year, and
any country will be reluctant to give away part of its surplus. In an abrupt cooling the problem would get worse for decades, and much
of the earth would be affected. A meteor strike that killed most of the population in a month would not be as serious as an abrupt
cooling that eventually killed just as many. With the population crash spread out over a decade, there would be ample opportunity for
civilization's institutions to be torn apart and for hatreds to build, as armies tried to grab remaining resources simply to feed the people
in their own countries. The effects of an abrupt cold last for centuries. They might not be the end of Homo sapiens — written
knowledge and elementary education might well endure — but the world after such a population crash would certainly be full of
despotic governments that hated their neighbors because of recent atrocities. Recovery would be very slow. A slightly exaggerated
version of our present know-something-do-nothing state of affairs is know-nothing-do-nothing: a reduction in science-as-usual, further
limiting our chances of discovering a way out. History is full of withdrawals from knowledge-seeking, whether for reasons of
fundamentalism, fatalism, or "government lite" economics. This scenario does not require that the shortsighted be in charge, only that
they have enough influence to put the relevant science agencies on starvation budgets and to send recommendations back for yet
another commission report due five years hence.
2. C02 increases the ability of plants to act as sinks which solves warming – turns case
The Idsos [Sherwood Idso, Keith Idso, and Craig Idso] [C02 science magazine Volume 6, Number 42] 10/15/03
In light of these observations, plus the fact that Saxe et al. (1998) have determined that a doubling of the air's CO2 content leads to
more than a doubling of the biomass production of coniferous species, it logically follows that the ongoing rise in the atmosphere's
CO2 concentration is increasing carbon sequestration rates in the soils upon which conifers grow and, hence, is producing a
significant negative feedback phenomenon that slows the rate of rise of the air's CO2 content, which would be assumed by many to
be reducing the rate of global warming.
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CO2 Link – CO2 Helps Plants

CO2 can double international crop yields while counteracting the negative
effects of pollutants
CO2 science magazine, staff writer, October 2001, [“Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions Could Dramatically Increase
Agricultural Production by Thwarting the Adverse Effects of Ozone Pollution,
www.co2science.org/edit/v4_edit/v4n43edit.htm // e.berggren]
In a recent study of the effects of ozone pollution in the Punjab region of Pakistan, Wahid et al. (2001) periodically applied a powerful
ozone protectant to soybean plants growing in three different locations in the general vicinity of the city of Lahore - a suburban site, a
remote rural site, and a rural roadside site - throughout two different growing seasons (one immediately post-monsoon and one the
following spring or pre-monsoon). The results were truly astounding. At the suburban site, application of the ozone protectant
increased the weight of seeds produced per plant by 47% in the post-monsoon season and by 113% in the pre-monsoon season. At
the remote rural site, the corresponding yield increases were 94% and 182%; and at the rural roadside site, they were 170%
and 285%. Averaged across all three sites and both seasons of the year, the mean increase in yield caused by countering the
deleterious effects of this one major air pollutant was nearly 150%. Due to their somewhat surprising finding that "the impacts of
ozone on the yield of soybean are larger in the rural areas around Lahore than in suburban areas of the city," the authors concluded
"there may be substantial impacts of oxidants on crop yield across large areas of the Punjab." In addition, they noted that earlier
studies had revealed similar large ozone-induced losses in the productivity of local cultivars of wheat and rice. Hence, it is clear that
whatever could be done to reduce these massive crop losses - or, ideally, eliminate them altogether - would be a godsend to the people
of Pakistan and the inhabitants of many other areas of the globe. Fortunately, such a savior is silently working its wonders throughout
the entire world. That of which we speak, of course, is the ongoing rise in the air's CO2 content, which counteracts the negative
effects of ozone - and those of many other air pollutants (Allen, 1990; Idso and Idso, 1994) - by restricting the noxious molecule's
entry into plant leaves via induced reduction of leaf stomatal apertures (Reid and Fiscus, 1998), and by ameliorating its adverse
biochemical activities when it does penetrate vegetative tissues (Reid et al., 1998). In a number of studies of these beneficial
consequences of atmospheric CO2 enrichment for the crop studied by Wahid et al., i.e., soybeans, it has been found that a nominal
doubling of the air's CO2 concentration is sufficient to greatly reduce - and in some cases completely eliminate - the yield-reducing
effects of ozone pollution (Heagle et al., 1998a and 1998b; Miller et al., 1998; Reid and Fiscus, 1998; Reid et al., 1998). The same
conclusion follows from the results of several studies that have looked at wheat in this regard (Heagle et al., 2000; McKee et al., 2000;
Pleijel et al., 2000; Tiedemann and Firsching, 2000). In fact, the work of Volin et al. (1998) suggests that these CO2-induced benefits
will likely be experienced by all plants. As the researchers directly state in the title of their paper: "species respond similarly
regardless of photosynthetic pathway or plant functional group." Think about the implications of these findings. A doubling of the
air's CO2 content could well double agricultural production in many areas of the world by merely eliminating the adverse effects of
but one air pollutant, i.e., ozone. Then, consider the fact that by the mid-point of the current century, we will likely face a food
production crisis of unimaginable proportions (see our Editorials of 21 February 2001 and 13 June 2001). Finally, ask yourself what
the Precautionary Principle has to say about this state of affairs (see our Editorial of 4 July 2001). We conducted such an exercise in
our review of the paper of Hudak et al. (1999), concluding that perhaps our new mantra should be: Free the Biosphere! Let the air's
CO2 content rise. And we still feel that way. CO2 is the elixir of life. It is one of the primary raw materials - the other being water -
out of which plants construct their tissues; and it is essential to their existence and our existence. Without more of it in the air, our
species - as well as most of the rest of the planet's animal life - will not survive the 21st century intact. The biosphere will continue to
exist, but not as we know it; for most of its wild diversity of life will have been extinguished by mankind's mad rush to appropriate
ever more land and water to grow the food required to feed itself (Tilman et al., 2001).
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Unchecked CO2 emissions will be barely suffiecent to meet the growing food
demand
Dr. Keith E. Idso, Vice President of CO2 science magazine and climatologist, 7-4-01, [“Carbon Dioxide and Global Environmental
Change: The Proper Roles of Reason and Religion in Developing Policies Related to Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions”,
http://www.co2science.org/edit/v4_edit/v4n27edit.htm //e.berggren]
So what extra measures could humanity take to meet this "greatest global challenge?" This is the question Idso and Idso (2000)
address, concluding that if the air’s CO2 concentration is allowed to rise unimpeded by overt actions designed to curtail
anthropogenic CO2 emissions, the extra plant productivity provided by the aerial fertilization effect of atmospheric CO2
enrichment will be just barely sufficient to make up for the shortfall in agricultural production that would still remain fifty years
from now in spite of everything else man could possibly do to increase the global supply of food.
CO2 increase agricultural production – fertilizes plants, lengthens growing

seasons, and increases precipitation – decreasing food prices
Thomas Gale Moore, Senior Fellow – Hoover Institution/ Standford University, 9-8-00, [Prepared for for the conference on global
climate change, “It is the best of Climates; It will be the worst of Climates?”, http://www.stanford.edu/~moore/ClEffects.pdf
//e.berggren]
In many parts of the world, warmer weather should mean longer growing seasons. Should the world warm, the hotter climate would
enhance evaporation from the seas and lead probably to more precipitation worldwide. Moreover, the enrichment of the atmosphere
with CO2 would fertilize plants and make for more vigorous growth. Agricultural economists studying the relationship of higher
temperatures and additional CO2 to crop yields in Canada, Australia, Japan, northern Russia, Finland, and Iceland found not only that
a warmer climate would push up yields but also that the added boost from enriched CO2 fertilization would enhance output by 15
percent (NCPO 1989). The United States Department of Agriculture in a cautious report reviewed the likely influence of global
warming and concluded that the overall effect on world food production would be slightly positive and that agricultural prices
would be likely to decrease.
Doubling CO2 would boost agriculture growth by over 50%

Thomas Gale Moore, ]Senior Fellow – Hoover Institution/ Standford University, no month 1998, Climate of fear pg. 114//
e.berggren]
In addition, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is rising. Carbon dioxide is an essential ingredient for plant growth. It
boosts both photosynthetic capacity and water-use efficiency. According to peer-reviewed research, a doubling of carbon dioxide
would on average boost growth by 52 percent (Wittwer 1997, 12). Moreover, the improved water-use capacity of plants means
that less rainfall would be needed to grow crops, thereby economizing on irrigation and perhaps offsetting partially any local
reduction in rainfall (Baker and Allen 1994). As a consequence, a boost in carbon dioxide would have a strong beneficial effect
on food production.
History proves agriculture does better with warming

Thomas Gale Moore, ]Senior Fellow – Hoover Institution/ Standford University, no month 1998, Climate of fear pg. 114//
e.berggren]
As Professors Ammerman and Cavalli-Sforza put it (1984, 16), ‘‘One of the few variables that would seem to be shared is timing:
early experiments at plant domestication occurred in southwest Asia, east Asia, and Central America during the period between 8000
B.C. and 5500 B.C.’’ The coincidence of the invention of agriculture with a general warming of the climate, an increase in rainfall,
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and a rise in carbon dioxide levels, all of which would have made plant growth more vigorous and more plentiful, cannot be
accidental.
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CO2 enrichment stimulates plants to grow faster and bigger producing larger
yields.
Dr. Keith E. Idso, Vice President of CO2 science magazine and climatologist, 7-4-01, [“Carbon Dioxide and Global Environmental
Change: The Proper Roles of Reason and Religion in Developing Policies Related to Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions”,
http://www.co2science.org/edit/v4_edit/v4n27edit.htm //e.berggren]
With respect to plant life, we encounter a somewhat different situation: we need not worry about any direct deleterious effects of
atmospheric CO2 enrichment, for there are none! Right from the very first whiff of extra CO2, nearly all of earth’s plants
respond by doing everything they do better than they do under current atmospheric CO2 concentrations. They typically grow
bigger and faster, producing more and larger leaves, more and larger roots, more and larger flowers, more and larger seeds,
grains and fruit, and on and on, as is demonstrated by the many biological Journal Reviews posted on our web site that describe
direct experimental investigations of these subjects. In addition, there are literally thousands – and that is no exaggeration – of
other such studies not highlighted on our web site that show the very same things. These facts have become so well established
over the past several decades that many scientists are now directing their attention to investigating the propensity for atmospheric
CO2 enrichment to not only induce plants to produce more biomass, but to promote the production of greater concentrations of
health-promoting and medicinal substances within that biomass, as noted in our reviews of the papers of Idso et al. (2000) and
Idso and Idso (2001). This effect of atmospheric CO2 enrichment could well provide a number of health benefits to humans and
animals alike, as the foods they eat become more nutritious and provide greater protection against a number of degenerative
diseases, including cancer, cardiovascular disease and immune system decline. In fact, it is possible that the people of the earth
and its animal life may already be benefiting from these potential CO2-induced improvements in their diets, as noted in our
editorial of 20 June 2001.
159 Peer-reviewed scientific journals conclude that CO2 increases agriculture

growth
Sherwood Idso , Pres. Center for Study of CO2 and Global Change, former Res. Phys. With U.S. Dept of Ag's Agr Research Service
at U.S. Water Conservation Laboratory Adjunct Professor Depts Geology, Geography, and Botany and Microbiology @ ASU, author
of over 500 scientific publications, Keith Idso, Vice Pres. Ctr Study CO2 and Global Change, Ph.D. in Botany @ ASU, won several
top awards while instructing students in biological and botanical laboratories and lectures at ASU, and Craig Idso, Chairman Board of
Center for Study CO2 & Global Change, Ph.D. in Geog. ASU, July 2002, http://www.co2science.org/edit/v5_edit/v5n42edit.htm //
e.berggren]
In a recent analysis of 159 peer-reviewed scientific journal articles published between 1983 and 2000, dealing with the effects of
atmospheric CO2 enrichment on the reproductive growth characteristics of several domesticated and wild plants, Jablonski et al.
(2002) calculated some interesting mean responses. For increases in the air's CO2 concentration ranging from approximately 150 to
450 ppm (rough average of 300 ppm), they found that, across all species studied, the extra CO2 supplied to the plants resulted in more
flowers (+19%), more fruits (+18%), more seeds (+16%), greater individual seed mass (+4%), greater total seed mass (+25%,
equivalent to yield), and greater total mass (+31%).
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Warming increases agricultural outputs
IPCC , Habiba Gitay(reporter) et al. Third Assessment Report, Climate Change 2001: Working Group II: Impacts, Mitigation and
Adaptation, Chapter 5: Ecosystems and Their Goods and Services, http://www.grida.no/climate/IPCC_tar/wg2/216.htm //e.berggren]
Is there an amount of climate change to which the global food production system can adapt with little harm but beyond which it
is likely to impose serious hardship? An answer can be sketched only with very low confidence at this time because of the
combination of uncertainties noted above. As noted in Section 5.3.2, prices are the best indicator of the balance between global
food supply and demand. They determine the access of a majority of the world's populations to an adequate diet. Two of three
global studies reviewed here project that real agricultural output prices will decline with a mean global temperature increase of as
much as 2.5 degrees C, especially if accompanied by modest increase in precipitation. Another study (Parry et al, 1999) projects
that output prices will rise with or without climate change, and even a global mean temperature increase of -1degree C (projected
by 2020) causes prices to rise relative to the case with no climate change. When studies from the SAR are included with these
more recent ones, there is general agreement that a mean global temperature rise of more than 2.5 degrees C could increase
prices (Reilly et al, 1996; Adams et al, 1998; Parry et al, 1999), with one exception (Darwin et al, 1995). Thus with very low
confidence, it is concluded from these studies that a global temperature rise of greater than 2.5 degrees C is likely to exceed the
capacity of the global food production system to adapt without price increases. However, results are too mixed to support a
defensible conclusion regarding the vulnerability of the global balance of agricultural supply and demand to smaller amounts of
warming than 2.5 degrees C.
CO2 enrichment stimulates crop growth and makes them more easily
sustainable
Sherwood Idso, President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. Previously he was a Research Physicist
with the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Agricultural Research Service and recipiant of The Authur S. Flemming award for
innovative research, 9-5-07, “Global Warming and Chinese Food Security”, http://co2science.org/articles/V10/N36/B1.php //
[E.Berggren]
The authors used "the A2 (medium-high GHG emission pathway) and B2 (medium-low) climate change scenarios produced by the
Regional Climate Model PRECIS, the crop model CERES, and socio-economic scenarios described by IPCC SRES, to simulate the
average yield changes per hectare of three main grain crops (rice, wheat, and maize) at 50 km x 50 km scale" for the entire country of
China. What was learned: The four researchers from the Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture of the
Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences in Beijing report finding that "the yield per hectare for the three crops would fall
consistently as temperature rises beyond 2.5°C." However, they also found that "when the CO2 fertilization effect was included in the
simulation, there were no adverse impacts [our italics] on China's food production under the projected range of temperature rise (0.9-
3.9°C)." What it means: if air temperatures continue to rise throughout the next few decades - for whatever reason - it would appear to
be imperative that the air's CO2 concentration continue to rise right along with them; for only under such conditions will China, as
well as most of the rest of the nations of the world, be able to adequately feed the larger numbers of people that will reside within their
boundaries just a few decades hence, without usurping unconscionable amounts of land and freshwater resources from what could be
called wild nature, which actions would inevitably lead to the extinctions of innumerable species of both plants and animals.
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High levels of CO2 are needed to sustain and increase rice production for a
growing population
CO2 Science.org, 1-14-04, “Atmospheric CO2 Enrichment: Boosting Rice Yields of Asia”,
http://co2science.org/articles/V7/N2/B2.php // [E.Berggren]
•
"On the basis of both area and tonnage harvested," according to the authors, "Oryza sativa L. (rice) is the most important crop in
Asia, providing a significant proportion of the people's dietary needs (Alexandratos, 1995)." Hence, they say that "in view of the
expected growth in Asia's population, there is a need to determine how the predicted increase in the levels of atmospheric CO2
will affect rice yield." What was done: In order to determine the interactive effects of elevated CO2 and nitrogen (N) availability
on the grain yield of rice crops grown under temperate flooded paddy conditions, Kim et al. grew rice crops from the seedling
stage to maturity at atmospheric CO2 concentrations of ambient and ambient plus 200 ppm using FACE technology and three
levels of applied nitrogen -- low (LN, 4 g N m-2), medium (MN, 8 and 9 g N m-2), and high (HN, 15 g N m-2) -- for three
cropping seasons (1998-2000). What was learned: The authors report that "the yield response to elevated CO2 in crops supplied
with MN (+14.6%) or HN (+15.2%) was about twice that of crops supplied with LN (+7.4%)," confirming the importance of N
availability to the response of rice to atmospheric CO2 enrichment previously determined by Kim et al. (2001) and Kobaysahi et
al. (2001). What it means: In terms of the more common increase in CO2 concentration used to express plant responses to
atmospheric CO2 enrichment, i.e., 300 ppm, the results of Kim et al. suggest we could likely expect something on the order of a
22% increase in rice yield for the MN treatment, which they say is "similar to that recommended to local farmers." Such a yield
increase, courtesy of the ongoing rise in the air's CO2 content, would go a long way towards helping the people of Asia meet the
future dietary needs of their expanding population.
Increasing CO2 is necessary to grow adequate amounts of food for the

expanding global population – absent CO2 increase “wild nature” goes extinct.
innovative research, Keith E. Idso is Vice President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. Received his
B.S. in Agriculture with a major in Plant Sciences from the University of Arizona and his M.S. from the same institution with a major
in Agronomy and Plant Genetics, and Craig D. Idso is the founder and chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon
Dioxide and Global Change, 5-28-08, “The Debt We Owe to Atmospheric CO2 Enrichment”,
http://co2science.org/articles/V11/N22/EDIT.php// [E.Berggren]
For comparative purposes, the researchers had also included one C3 species in their study -- Hordeum spontaneum K. Koch -- and
they report that it "showed a near-doubling in biomass compared with [the] 40% increase in the C4 species under growth treatments
equivalent to the postglacial CO2 rise." In light of these several findings, it can be appreciated that the civilizations of the past, which
could not have existed without agriculture, were largely made possible by the increase in the air's CO2 content that accompanied
deglaciation, and that the peoples of the earth today are likewise indebted to this phenomenon, as well as the additional 100 ppm of
CO2 the atmosphere has subsequently acquired. With an eye to the future, we have long contended that the ongoing rise in the air's
CO2 content will similarly play a pivotal role in enabling us to grow the food we will need to sustain our still-expanding global
population in the year 2050 without usurping all of the planet's remaining freshwater resources and much of its untapped arable
land, which latter actions would likely lead to our driving most of what yet remains of "wild nature" to extinction. Rising CO2 has
served both us and the rest of the biosphere well in the past; and it will do the same in the future ... unless we turn and fight against it.
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CO2 enables plants to grow faster and larger and live in drier climates –
without more CO2 the earth will be in jeopardy
Lawrence Solomon, executive director of Energy Probe and author of The Deniers and other multiple peer reviewed science
journals, June 7, 2008, [“In praise of CO2; With less heat and less carbon dioxide, the planet could become less hospitable and less
green”, L/N //e.berggren]
Why the increase? Their 2004 study, and other more recent studies, point to the warming of the planet and the presence of CO2, a gas
indispensable to plant life. CO2 is nature's fertilizer, bathing the biota with its life-giving nutrients. Plants take the carbon from CO2 to
bulk themselves up -- carbon is the building block of life -- and release the oxygen, which along with the plants, then sustain animal
life. As summarized in a report last month, released along with a petition signed by 32,000 U. S. scientists who vouched for the
benefits of CO2: "Higher CO2 enables plants to grow faster and larger and to live in drier climates. Plants provide food for
animals, which are thereby also enhanced. The extent and diversity of plant and animal life have both increased substantially during
the past half-century." Lush as the planet may now be, it is as nothing compared to earlier times, when levels of CO2 and Earth
temperatures were far higher. In the age of the dinosaur, for example, CO2 levels may have been five to 10 times higher than today,
spurring a luxuriantly fertile planet whose plant life sated the immense animals of that era. Planet Earth is also much cooler today than
during the hothouse era of the dinosaur, and cooler than it was 1,000 years ago during the Medieval Warming Period, when the
Vikings colonized a verdant Greenland. Greenland lost its colonies and its farmland during the Little Ice Age that followed, and only
recently started to become green again. This blossoming Earth could now be in jeopardy, for reasons both natural and man-made.
According to a growing number of scientists, the period of global warming that we have experienced over the past few centuries as
Earth climbed out of the Little Ice Age is about to end. The oceans, which have been releasing their vast store of carbon dioxide as the
planet has warmed -- CO2 is released from oceans as they warm and dissolves in them when they cool -- will start to take the carbon
dioxide back. With less heat and less carbon dioxide, the planet could become less hospitable and less green, especially in areas such
as Canada's Boreal forests, which have been major beneficiaries of the increase in GPP and NPP.
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CO2 Link – CO2 Helps Plants – Adaptation

CO2 stimulates plant growth, enables them to growth faster and larger even in
dryer climates.
Arthur B. Robinson, Ph.D. and professor of climate change, Fall 2007, “Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon
Dioxide”, http://www.jpands.org/vol12no3/robinson.pdf//E.Berggren]
The increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide has, however, had a substantial environmental effect. Atmospheric CO2 fertilizes plants.
Higher CO2 enables plants to grow faster and larger and to live in drier climates. Plants provide food for animals, which are thereby
also enhanced. The extent and diversity of plant and animal life have both increased substantially during the past half-century.
Increased temperature has also mildly stimulated plant growth. Does a catastrophic amplification of these trends with damaging
climatological consequences lie ahead? There are no experimental data that suggest this. There is also no experimentally validated
theoretical evidence of such an amplification. Predictions of catastrophic global warming are based on computer climate modeling, a
branch of science still in its infancy. The empirical evidence—actual measurements of Earth’s temperature and climate—shows no
man-made warming trend. Indeed, during four of the seven decades since 1940 when average CO2 levels steadily increased, U.S.
average temperatures were actually decreasing. While levels have increased substantially and are expected to continue doing so and
humans have been responsible for part of this increase, the effect on the environment has been benign.
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CO2 Link – CO2 Helps Plants – Drought Resistance

Data shows that warming increases drought resistancy
of over 500 scientific publications, 7-31-02, “Responses of Agricultural Crops to Free-Air CO2 Enrichment”,
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V5/N31/EDIT.php // e.berggren]
In discussing these several observations, Kimball et al. note that "growth stimulations were as large or larger under water-stress
compared to well-watered conditions." They also note that "roots were generally stimulated more than shoots," and that "woody
perennials had larger growth responses to elevated CO2, while at the same time their reductions in stomatal conductance were
smaller." Also, although "growth stimulations of non-legumes were reduced at low-soil nitrogen," they note that "elevated CO2
strongly stimulated the growth of the clover legume both at ample and under low nitrogen conditions." All of the above observations
are consistent with what has been observed in other types of CO2 enrichment experiments over the years, with one significant
exception. The CO2-induced decreases in stomatal conductance observed in the FACE studies are about 50% greater than those
observed in prior non-FACE experiments, which suggests that the water use efficiency of these particular crops - and perhaps other
plants as well - may be increased considerably more by the ongoing rise in the air's CO2 content (perhaps by as much as 50% more)
than what had previously been thought likely. In conclusion, we can safely say that the wealth of FACE data that has been obtained
since 1989 has only served to strengthen our positive view of the historical and still-ongoing rise in the air's CO2 content. Earth's
biosphere, of which we are an integral part, has already benefited immensely from the 100-ppm increase in atmospheric CO2
concentration brought to us as an unanticipated consequence of the Industrial Revolution; and we and all of nature will benefit still
more from increases yet to come.
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CO2 Link – CO2 Helps Plants – Water Efficiency

CO2 increases plants’ ability to retain more water and for longer periods of time – allowing them to grow in periods of
drought
top awards while instructing students in biological and botanical laboratories and lectures at ASU, and Craig Idso, Chairman Board of
Center for Study CO2 & Global Change, Ph.D. in Geog. ASU, june 2004, http://www.co2science.org/articles/V7/N25/EDIT.php
//e.berggen]
Another important finding of the group of Colorado researchers was, in their words, that when averaged over the study period,
"leaf water potential was enhanced 24-30% under elevated CO2 in the major warm- and cool-season grass species of the SGS
(Bouteloua gracilis, C4, 28.5%; Pascopyrum smithii, C3, 24.7%; Stipa comata, C3, 30.4%)." They say these results are similar
to those of "studies involving other C3 and C4 grass species (Owensby et al., 1993; Jackson et al., 1994)," and that the enhanced
leaf water potential - "which reflects improved plant water status and increased drought tolerance (Tyree and Alexander, 1993)" -
may lead to increased leaf turgor and allow the grasses "to continue growth further into periods of drought." Hence, it is not
surprising that, averaged over the five years of the study, Nelson et al. found that "water-use efficiency (g aboveground biomass
harvested / kg water consumed) was 43% higher in elevated than ambient CO2 plots."
CO2 increases water efficiency in plants and allows them to flourish with
minimal water supply
CO2 Science.org, 10-7-07, “Drought Stress Effects on Wheat and the Mitigating Effect of CO2”,
http://co2science.org/articles/V10/N41/B1.php //[E.Berggren]
The authors grew spring wheat (Triticum aestivum cv. Minaret) in open-top chambers on an experimental field of the Federal
Agricultural Research Center in Braunschweig, Germany, in two different growing seasons at either current or future (current + 280
ppm) atmospheric CO2 concentrations and under sufficient-water-supply (WET) or drought-stress (DRY) conditions, the latter of
which was imposed just after the crop first-node stage was reached (approximately 35 days after emergence) by halving the
subsequent water supplied to the plants. What was learned: Manderscheid and Weigel found that, "in both years, biomass and grain
yield were decreased by drought and increased by CO2 enrichment," with the positive CO2 effect being greater under drought
conditions. "Averaged over both years," as they describe it, "CO2 enrichment increased biomass and grain yield under WET
conditions by <=10% and under DRY conditions by >=44%." In addition, they likewise determined that the CO2-induced increase in
crop water-use efficiency was 20% in the sufficient-water-supply treatment and 43% in the drought-stress treatment. What it means:
Based on their findings, the two German researchers concluded that "negative effects on wheat yield resulting from increased water
shortage, as predicted from global climate models for the future [our italics], may be mitigated by the higher CO2 concentration and
yield may be decreased to a lesser extent if all other environmental conditions remain the same." But the truth is even better than that.
As recently noted by Wentz et al. (2007), for example, one of the most important environmental conditions pertaining to this
conclusion is clearly not "remaining the same," for as stated in the mini-abstract of the latter researchers' paper in Science's table of
contents, "humidity and precipitation unexpectedly increased at the same rate in response to global warming during the past 20 years,
yielding more rainfall than predicted by models [our italics]." As a result, we can realistically expect future wheat yields to be
significantly enhanced by the ongoing rise in the air's CO2 content throughout the coming decades of continued fossil fuel utilization.
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CO2 Impact – Ext. Carbon Sinks

Recent studies show that increased CO2 content increases plants’ ability to
develop necessary carbon sinks.
in Agronomy and Plant Genetics, 1-4-08, http://co2science.org//articles/V5/N3/COM.php // e.berggren]
Woody plant encroachment upon arid and semiarid grasslands and savannas has been an ubiquitous natural phenomenon experienced
throughout the entire world over the course of the past century or more (Idso, 1995), driven - at least partially, many believe - by the
contemporaneous rise in the air's CO2 concentration (Knapp and Soule, 1998, Soule and Knapp, 1999). Is it possible this
phenomenon may be responsible for sequestering much of the planet's so-called missing carbon, an unidentified but growing
repository of organic matter needed to explain the less-than-predicted rate-of-rise of the air's CO2 content that is calculated on the
basis of known sources and sinks of this important greenhouse gas? A recent study sheds new light on this critical subject,
suggesting the answer is yes. Working in the La Copita Research Area southwest of Alice, Texas, Hibbard et al. (2001) analyzed
several chemical and physical properties of the top ten centimeters of soils in remnant herbaceous areas and patches of woody
vegetation in various stages of invasive development. Compared to soils beneath herbaceous vegetation, they found that the soils
beneath the tree/shrub areas had much greater concentrations of both carbon (C) and nitrogen (N); and a companion study of soil C
and N across woody patches ranging in age from 10 to 110 years indicated that these variables had experienced a linear increase
through time. What was the source of these C and N increases? In a word, roots. The authors write they "were surprised by the
magnitude of root biomass in surficial soils of woody patches, which greatly exceeded that of herbaceous patches and which greatly
exceeded that of foliar litter inputs." Citing a number of studies of rates of root turnover in herbaceous and woody-plant ecosystems,
they concluded that "the role of belowground inputs in fueling changes in surficial soil C and N stocks ... accompanying shifts from
grass to woody plant domination may therefore be more substantial than previously appreciated." How much more substantial? In
broaching this question, the authors began by noting that "the contrasts between woody and herbaceous patches reported here are
conservative in that they do not include an assessment of whole plant C and N stocks," i.e., root biomass below ten centimeters depth
and woody biomass aboveground. With respect to the first of these factors, they cite several studies that have detected greater soil C
concentrations beneath woody vs. herbaceous vegetation to depths of 100 to 400 centimeters. With respect to the second factor, they
likewise cite evidence suggesting that "plant C mass has increased tenfold with the conversion of grassland to savanna woodland over
the past 100 years." So what do these findings imply about the world as a whole? The authors note that since "woody plant expansion
into drylands has been geographically widespread over the past century," and since "40% of the terrestrial biosphere consists of arid
and semiarid savanna, shrubland, and grassland ecosystems, this type of vegetation change may be of significance to the global C and
N cycle." To fully quantify the significance of this phenomenon, however, they say we must obtain better information on "the historic
or modern rate, areal extent, and pattern of woody plant expansion in the world's drylands." Vigorous pursuit of this information via
remote sensing techniques that show promise of quantifying grass vs. woody plant biomass in grasslands and savannas, coupled with
ever-evolving ecosystem modeling techniques, may soon provide the answers we seek. From what we already know, however, it's a
good bet that Hibbard, Archer, Schimel and Valentine have laid the necessary groundwork for resolving the dilemma of the world's
missing carbon. It's likely to be found in the soils and standing biomass of woody plants that have invaded earth's grasslands and
savannas over the period of rising atmospheric CO2 concentration that has accompanied the progression of civilization since the dawn
of the Industrial Revolution.
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Data in New York revealed that trees absorb and store greenhouse gasses
removing pollution from the air.
Science Daily Magazine, sudy and report on works cited for carbon sequestration, 5-7-07, [“Right Mix Of Trees Fights Global
Warming Environmental Scientists Find Tree Combo For Carbon Sequestration”, http://209.85.215.104/search?
q=cache:sAMnVURIYyoJ:www.sciencedaily.com/videos/2007/0504-
right_mix_of_trees_fights_global_warming.htm+carbon+sequestration+global+warming&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=2&gl=us&client=firef
ox-a //e.Berggren]
Cities in the United States have lost more than 20 percent of their trees in 10 years. Richard Smardon, Ph.D., is an Environmental
Planner at SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry in Syracuse, New York, attributes the disappearing trees to more
construction around the country. Dr. Smardon says one huge benefit of trees is that they store so much carbon, which is good for
the environment. He explains, "The more carbon we store in the tree, the less goes into the atmosphere." Dr. Smardon and forester
Allan Drew, Ph.D., have found the perfect mix of trees for Syracuse, New York, a combination that packs a hefty environmental
punch. Dr. Drew says they are working on changing one city at a time. He told Ivanhoe, "We are making a conscious effort to produce
communities that have better air quality and better health for the people that live there." In a year-round venture, Dr. Smardon and Dr.
Drew found 31 trees that are high performers in the region, like the sycamore. Their goal is to get people to protect and plant those
trees in their neighborhoods, so everyone can make a change. Dr. Smardon says it's easy, "It's like using solar cells on your roof or
driving a hybrid car. It's something the individual can do so they know they are making a difference." Trees absorb and store
greenhouse gases. A USDA study shows the trees in New York City alone remove 1,800 metric tons of air pollution from the local
atmosphere. They provide shade, which also reduces how much energy we use.
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The rising temperatures are allowing plants to store and take more carbon
dioxide and other greenhouse gasses creating a negative feedback.
Keith E. Idso is Vice President of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. Received his B.S. in Agriculture
with a major in Plant Sciences from the University of Arizona and his M.S. from the same institution with a major in Agronomy and
Plant Genetics, and Craig D. Idso is the founder and chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and
Global Change, 2004, http://co2science.org/articles/V4/N2/COM.php // E.Berggren]
The amount of carbon stored above and beneath a unit area of land is basically a function of two biochemical processes,
photosynthesis and respiration. During photosynthesis, plants remove CO2 from the atmosphere and utilize it to construct their
tissues, where it is safely retained until it is respired back to the atmosphere. Thus, if the total amount of photosynthesis occurring
over a given area of land is greater than the total amount of respiration occurring above and beneath its surface, that area of land is
said to be a carbon sink. Conversely, if the amount of photosynthesis is less than the amount of respiration, the area is said to be a
carbon source. For many years, theoretical models of ecosystem dynamics suggested that global warming would reduce both the
magnitude and number of terrestrial carbon sinks by increasing ecosystem respiration more than it increased ecosystem
photosynthesis. If true, this result would dash all hopes of mitigating CO2-induced global warming via biological carbon
sequestration. However, like model-based predictions of climate change, there are a number of problems with this prediction as well.
The primary problem is the simple fact that most observational evidence does not support the model predictions of reduced soil carbon
storage under elevated temperatures. Fitter et al. (1999), for example, evaluated the effect of temperature on plant decomposition and
soil carbon storage, finding that upland grass ecosystem soils artificially heated by nearly 3°C increased both root production and root
death by equivalent amounts. Hence, they concluded that in these ecosystems, elevated temperatures "will have no direct effect on the
soil carbon store." Similarly, Johnson et al. (2000) warmed Arctic tundra ecosystems by nearly 6°C for eight full years and still found
no significant effect of that major temperature increase on ecosystem respiration. Furthermore, Liski et al. (1999) showed that carbon
storage in soils of both high- and low-productivity boreal forests in Finland actually increased with warmer temperatures along a
natural temperature gradient. Why the big discrepancy between model predictions and reality? According to a recent paper in the
Annals of Botany, there are two potential explanations: (1) ecosystem modelers are over-estimating the temperature dependency of
soil respiration, and (2) warming may increase the rate of certain physico-chemical processes that transfer organic carbon to more
stable soil organic matter pools, thereby enabling the protected carbon to avoid or more strongly resist decomposition (Thornley and
Cannell, 2001). That the first of these explanations is viable is demonstrated by the results of the studies just described. The second
explanation is also reasonable. Thornley and Cannell hypothesize, for example, that the pertinent physico-chemical processes require
a certain amount of activation energy to attach organic materials onto soil minerals or bring them together into aggregates that are less
subject to decomposition; and they suggest that higher temperatures can provide that energy. Taking their hypothesis one step further,
Thornley and Cannell developed a dynamic soil model in which they demonstrate that if their thinking is correct, "long-term soil
carbon storage will appear to be insensitive to a rise in temperature, even if the respiration rates of all [soil carbon] pools respond to
temperature as assumed by [most models]," which is, in fact, what experimental and real-world data clearly indicate to be the case.
The upshot of these several observations is that global warming does not cause terrestrial carbon sinks to release additional CO2 to the
atmosphere and thereby exacerbate the warming, as was fervently believed up until the last few years. In fact, it is much more likely
that rising temperatures may do just the opposite, inducing a negative feedback phenomenon that enables greater amounts of
carbon to be sequestered, which would tend to decrease the rate of CO2-induced warming. Clearly, the biosphere is well adapted to
responding to environmental challenges; and this one is no exception. When the going gets hot, the earth knows how to keep its cool.
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CO2 Impact – Ext. Starvation

Billions will starve without more food
Jerusalem Post 11/15/01
Klaus Toepfer, Executive Director of UNEP, said: "Billions of people across the tropics depend on crops such as rice, maize
and wheat for their very survival. These new findings indicate that large numbers are facing acute hunger and malnutrition
unless the world acts to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases." "The population of Asia is expected to
increase by 44 percent in the next 50 years and yields must at least match that growth rate if famine is to be avoided.
Currently more than half the people in South East Asia have a calorie intake that is inadequate for an active life, and ten
million children die annually from diseases related to malnutrition.
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CO2 Impact – Species Extinction

It’s try or die, either increase CO2 for agriculture productivity or watch the
extinction of millions of unique species.
top awards while instructing students in biological and botanical laboratories and lectures at ASU, September 4, 2002,
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V5/N36/EDIT.php // e.berggren]
In conclusion, it would appear that the extinction of two-thirds of all species of plants and animals on the face of the earth is
essentially assured within the next century, if world agricultural output is not dramatically increased. This unfathomable consequence
will occur simply because we will need more land to produce what is required to sustain us and, in the absence of the needed
productivity increase, because we will simply take that land from nature to keep ourselves alive. It is also the conclusion of scientists
who have studied this problem in depth that the needed increase in agricultural productivity is not possible, even with anticipated
improvements in technology and expertise. With the help of the ongoing rise in the air's CO2 content, however, Idso and Idso (2000)
have shown that we should be able - but just barely - to meet our expanding food needs without bringing down the curtain on the
world of nature. That certain forces continue to resist this reality is truly incredible. More CO2 means life for the planet; less CO2
means death ... and not just the death of individuals, but the death of species. And to allow, nay, cause the extinction of untold millions
of unique and irreplaceable species has got to rank close to the top of all conceivable immoralities.
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CO2 Impact Calc – Ag Outweighs Warming

The Agricultural crisis dwarfs any possible impact of global warming and is
more probable
Dr. Craig D. Idso, President co2 science magazine and climatologist and Dr. Keith E. Idso, Vice President and climatologist, 6-13-
01, [“Two Crises of Unbelievable Magnitude: Can We Prevent One Without Exacerbating the Other?”,
http://co2science.org//articles/V4/N24/EDIT.php //e.berggren]
Two potentially devastating environmental crises loom ominously on the horizon. One is catastrophic global warming, which many
people claim will occur by the end of the next century. The other is the need to divert essentially all usable non-saline water on the
face of the earth to the agricultural enterprises that will be required to meet the food and fiber needs of humanity's growing numbers in
but half a century (Wallace, 2000; Tilman et al., 2001). This necessary expansion of agriculture will also require the land that
currently supports a full third of all tropical and temperate forests, savannas and grasslands, according to Tilman, et al., who also
correctly state that the destruction of that important natural habitat will lead to the extinction of untold numbers of plant and animal
species. How do the magnitudes of the two crises compare? Tilman et al. suggest that the coming agriculturally-driven crisis is likely
to rival that of predicted climate change, placing the two disasters on pretty much an equal footing. Wallace, however, is unequivocal
in his contention that the agricultural crisis dwarfs the climate crisis. "There can be," he says, "no greater global challenge
today on which physical and social scientists can work together than the goal of producing the food required for future generations." It
is our judgment that the conclusion of Wallace is the more robust of the two, based on the simple fact that the agriculturally-driven
crisis is almost certain to occur, whereas there is still doubt about the climate crisis. We also believe that Tilman et al. would probably
not dispute this contention; for it is their own conclusion that "even the best available technologies, fully deployed, cannot prevent
many of the forecasted problems," meaning the future scarcity of food, fiber, land and water described above. This conclusion as to
the unavoidability of the agricultural crisis is further buttressed by the fact that Tilman et al.'s analysis even assumed a reasonable rate
of advancement in technological expertise, as we also assumed in an earlier analysis of the identical problem that arrived at essentially
the same conclusion (Idso and Idso, 2000).
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CO2 Good – AT: Weeds

Studies prove C02 doesn’t increase C3 or C4 weeds it affords non-weeds
greater protection against weeds and increases their competitiveness against
them
the Idsos [Sherwood Idso, Keith Idso, and Craig Idso] [C02 science magazine Volume 7, Number 23] 6/9/04
Dukes (2002) grew model serpentine grasslands common to California, USA, in competition with the invasive forb Centaurea
solstitialis at atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 350 and 700 ppm for one year, determining that elevated CO2 increased the biomass
proportion of this weedy species in the community by a mere 1.2%, while total community biomass increased by 28%. Similarly,
Gavazzi et al. (2000) grew loblolly pine seedlings for four months in competition with both C3 and C4 weeds at atmospheric CO2
concentrations of 260 and 660 ppm, reporting that elevated CO2 increased pine biomass by 22% while eliciting no response at all
from either type of weed. Likewise, in a study of pasture ecosystems near Montreal, Canada, Taylor and Potvin (1997) found that
elevated CO2 concentrations did not influence the number of native species returning after their removal (to simulate disturbance),
even in the face of the introduced presence of the C3 weed Chenopodium album, which normally competes quite effectively with
several slower-growing crops in ambient air. In fact, atmospheric CO2 enrichment did not impact the growth of this weed in any
measurable way. Ziska et al. (1999) also studied the C3 weed C. album, along with the C4 weed Amaranthus retroflexus, in
glasshouses maintained at atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 360 and 720 ppm. They determined that elevated CO2 significantly
increased the photosynthetic rate and total dry weight of the C3 weed, but that it had no effect at all on the C4 weed. Also, they found
that the growth response of the C3 weed to a doubling of the air's CO2 content was approximately 51%, which is about the same as
the average 52% growth response tabulated by Idso (1992), and that obtained by Poorter (1993) for rapidly-growing wild C3 species
(54%), which finding suggests there is no enhanced dominance of the C3 weed over other C3 plants in a CO2-enriched environment.
Wayne et al. (1999) studied another agricultural weed, field mustard (Brassica kaber), which was sewn in pots at six densities, placed
in atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 350 and 700 ppm, and sequentially harvested during the growing season. Early in stand
development, elevated CO2 increased aboveground weed biomass in a density-dependent manner; with the greatest stimulation of
141% occurring at the lowest density (corresponding to 20 plants per square meter) and the smallest stimulation of 59% occurring at
the highest density (corresponding to 652 plants per square meter). However, as stands matured, the density-dependence of the CO2-
induced growth response disappeared, and CO2-enriched plants exhibited an average aboveground biomass that was 34% greater than
that of ambiently-grown plants across a broad range of plant densities. Moreover, this final growth stimulation was similar to that of
most other herbaceous plants exposed to atmospheric CO2 enrichment (30 to 50% biomass increases for a doubling of the air's CO2
content), once again evidencing that atmospheric CO2 enrichment confers no undue advantage upon weeds at the expense of other
plants. In a study of a weed that affects both plants and animals, Caporn et al. (1999) examined bracken (Pteridium aquilinum), which
poses a serious weed problem and potential threat to human health in the United Kingdom and other regions, growing specimens for
19 months in controlled environment chambers maintained at atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 370 and 570 ppm and normal or
high levels of soil fertility. They found that the high CO2 treatment consistently increased rates of net photosynthesis by 30 to 70%,
depending on soil fertility and time of year. However, elevated CO2 did not increase total plant dry mass or the dry mass of any plant
organ, including rhizomes, roots and fronds. In fact, the only significant effect of elevated CO2 on bracken growth was observed in
the normal nutrient regime, where elevated CO2 actually reduced mean frond area. Finally, in a study involving two parasitic species
(Striga hermonthica and Striga asiatica), Watling and Press (1997) reported that total parasitic biomass per host plant at an
atmospheric CO2 concentration of 700 ppm was 65% less than it was in ambient air. And in a related study, Dale and Press (1999)
observed that the presence of a parasitic plant (Orobanche minor) reduced its host's biomass by 47% in ambient air of 360 ppm CO2,
while it only reduced it by 20% in air of 550 ppm CO2. These several studies suggest that the ongoing rise in the air's CO2 content
likely will not favor the growth of weedy species over that of crops and native plants. In fact, it may well provide non-weeds greater
protection against weed-induced decreases in their productivity and growth. Thus, future increases in the air's CO2 content may
actually increase the competitiveness of non-weeds over weeds.
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CO2 Good – AT: Weeds

CO2 increases contribute to the invasiveness of plants allowing them to
combat weeds, also population growth in weeds drop with warming increases.
CO2 Science.org, 4-2-08, “Invasive Species in a CO2-Enriched and Warmer World”,
http://co2science.org/articles/V11/N14/B2.php//[E.Berggren]
The authors write that "it is generally believed that characteristics that contribute to the invasiveness of a plant, namely broad
environmental tolerance, high relative growth rate and high fecundity, are the very traits that would be favored in a warmer, high-CO2
world," and they note that "previous research has demonstrated substantial impacts of elevated CO2 on selected invasive species,
mostly indicating that elevated CO2 does increase weed invasion success, particularly when the invasive species [are] C3 plants."
What was done: Among other things, Williams et al. investigated this hypothesis at the Tasmanian Free-Air CO2 Enrichment
(TasFACE) facility, which is located in a native lowland grassland in the southern midlands region of Tasmania, Australia, where they
studied the impacts of an imposed 170-ppm increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration and a 2°C rise in air temperature over the
period stretching from the spring of 2003 to the summer of 2006, during which time they documented annual seed production,
seedling emergence, seedling survival and adult survival of four abundant perennial species, including the two most dominant
invading weeds: Hypochaeris radicata L. and Leontodon taraxacoides (Vill.) Merat, which are members of the Asteraceae family.
What was learned: The six researchers determined there were no significant CO2-induced differences in the population growth rates of
either weed species; but they found that the population growth rates of both of them "were substantially reduced by warming." What it
means: Williams et al. concluded from their findings that "global warming may be a more important determinant of the success of
invasive species than CO2 concentration," and they say their results suggest that both of the invading weed species they studied in
Tasmania "are likely to be excluded [our italics] from the grassland community by increasing temperatures."
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CO2 Good – AT: Plant Protein

Increased amounts of CO2 increase biomass and food yield, including protein
Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, 7-23-08, summary of a study by J.W. Fleisher, Ph.D. at
Rutgers in Engineering and Plant Science, “CO2 Enrichment of Potatoes,” http://www.co2science.org/articles/V11/N30/B3.php
Fleisher et al. report that "elevated CO2 plants maintained a higher daily net assimilation rate throughout most of the
growing season," and that "at moderate and more severe levels of water stress, CO2 enrichment appeared to encourage shifting
of assimilate into tubers as opposed to additional vegetative growth." Hence, they say that "total biomass, yield and water use
efficiency increased under elevated CO2, with the largest percent increases occurring at irrigations that induced the most
water stress," and that "water use efficiency was nearly doubled under enriched CO2 when expressed on a tuber fresh
weight basis."
What it means
"Overall," in the words of the three researchers, "the results indicate that increases in potato gas exchange, dry matter
production and yield with elevated CO2 are consistent at various levels of water stress as compared with ambient CO2."
And, of course, they provide what we so desperately need in today's world, and what we will need even more as the world's
population continues to grow: significantly enhanced food production per unit of water used.
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CO2 Good – AT: Soil Erosion

Warming would reduce the ability of enchutraid worms to promote carbon loss
from soil – allowing the soil to absorb more carbon for longer periods of time.
in Agronomy and Plant Genetics, 2003, “Global Warming: Can It Be Slowed by Worms?”
http://co2science.org/articles/V5/N18/COM.php [E.Berggren]
In an intriguing research paper published in Soil Biology & Biochemistry, Cole et al. (2002) remind us that "it has been predicted that
global warming will influence the productivity of ecosystems indirectly by increasing soil biological activity, and hence organic
matter decomposition." They also note that "this release of CO2 is expected to be greatest from the organic soils and peatlands of
wetland, tundra and boreal zones." Getting even more specific, they report that "in the peatlands of northern England, which are
classified as blanket peat, it has been suggested that the potential effects of global warming on carbon and nutrient dynamics will be
related to the activities of dominant soil fauna, and especially enchytraeid worms." So what did the researchers find? First of all, and
contrary to their hypothesis, elevated temperature reduced the ability of the enchytraeid worms to enhance the loss of carbon from the
microcosms. At the normal ambient temperature, for example, the presence of the worms enhanced DOC loss by 16%, while at the
elevated temperature expected for a doubling of the air's CO2 content they had no effect on DOC. In addition, Cole et al. noted that
"warming may cause drying at the soil surface, forcing enchytraeids to burrow to deeper subsurface horizons." Hence, since the
worms are known to have little influence on soil carbon dynamics below a depth of 4 cm (Cole et al., 2000), the scientists concluded
that this additional consequence of warming would further reduce the ability of enchytraeids to enhance carbon loss from blanket
peatlands. In summing up their findings, Cole et al. say "the soil biotic response to warming in this study was negative." That is, it
was of such a nature that it resulted in a reduced loss of carbon to the atmosphere, which would tend to slow the rate of rise of
the air's CO2 content, demonstrating once again that nature is well equipped to maintain the mean upper temperature of the
planet's surface at a level conducive to the continued existence of life.
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SO2 1NC Module

Sulfur acts as a carbon sink and decreases global temperatures – by solving
fossil fuels, the plan decreases SO2, resulting in a massive increase in
warming
William Cotton– Professor of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University “Human Impacts on Weather And Climate, 2nd
Edition, Cambridge Press” April 9, 2007 http://icecap.us/docs/change/aerosols.pdf
Clouds, we have seen, are good reflectors of solar radiation and therefore contribute significantly to the net albedo of the Earth system.
We thus ask, how might aerosol particles originating through anthropogenic activity influence the radiative properties ofclouds and
thereby affect climate? First of all, there are indications that in urban areas aerosols make clouds `dirty' andthereby decrease the
albedo of the cloud aerosol layer and increase the absorptance of the clouds Kondrat'yev et al., 1981. This effect appears to be quite
localized; being restricted to over and immediately downwind of major urban areas, particularly cities emitting large quantities of
black soot particles. Kondrat'yev et al.\ noted that the water samples collected from the clouds they sampled were actually dark in
color. A potentially more important impact of aerosol on clouds and climate is that they can serve as a source of cloud condensation
nuclei CCN and thereby alter the concentration of cloud droplets. Twomey 1974 first pointed out that increasing pollution results in
greater CCN concentrations and greater numbers of cloud droplets, which, in turn, increase the reflectance of clouds. Subsequently,
Twomey 1977 showed that this effectwas most influential for optically thin clouds; clouds having shallow depths or littlecolumn
integrated liquid water content. Optically thicker clouds, he argued, are already very bright, and are therefore susceptible to increased
absorption by the presence of dirty aerosol. In Twomey's words: `ìt an increase in global pollution could, at the same time, make thin
clouds brighter and thick clouds darker, the crossover in behavioroccurring at a cloud thickness which depends on the ratio of
absorption to the cube root of drop nucleus concentration. The sign of the net global effect, warming or cooling,therefore involves
both the distribution of cloud thickness and the relative magnitude ofthe rate of increase of cloud-nucleating particles vis-a-vis
particulate absorption.}"Subsequently, Twomey et al. 1984 presented observational and theoretical evidence indicating that the
absorption effect of aerosols is small and the enhanced albedo effect plays a dominate role on global climate. They argued that the
enhanced cloud albedo has a magnitude comparable to that of greenhouse warming see Chapter 11 and acts to coolthe atmosphere.
Kaufman et al.1991 concluded that although coal and oil emit 120 times as many CO2 molecules as SO2 molecules, each SO2
molecule is 50-1100 times as effective in cooling the atmosphere than each CO2 molecule is in warming it. This is by virtue of the
SO2 molecules' contribution to CCN production and enhanced cloud albedo.Twomey suggests that if the CCN concentration in the
cleaner parts of the atmosphere, such as the oceanic regions, were raised to continental atmospheric values, about 10%more energy
would be reflected to space by relatively thin cloud layers. He also points out that an increase in cloud reflectivity by 10% is of greater
consequence than a similar increase in global cloudiness. This is because while an increase in cloudiness reduces the incoming solar
radiation, it also reduces the outgoing infrared radiation. Thus both cooling and heating effects occur when global cloudiness
increases. In contrast, an increase in cloud reflectance due to enhanced CCN concentration does not appreciably affect infrared
radiation but does reflect more incoming solar radiation which results in a net cooling effect.
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SO2 – Ext. SO2  Cooling

Data has proved that aerosol significantly conceals global warming
Spencer Weart (Director of the Center for History of Physics of the American Institute of Physics (AIP) in College Park, PhD
in Physics and Astrophysics, 2007, “Aerosols: Volcanoes, Dust, Clouds and Climate,”
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/aerosol.htm).
Haze from small particles surely affected climate, but how? Old speculations about the effects of smoke from volcanoes were brought
to mind in the 1960s, when urban smog became a major research topic. Some tentative evidence suggested that aerosols emitted by
human industry and agriculture could change the weather. A few scientists exclaimed that smoke and dust from human activities
would cause a dangerous global cooling. Or would pollution warm the atmosphere? Theory and data were far too feeble to answer the
question, and few people even tried to address it. Among these few, the uncertainties fueled vigorous debates, in particular over how
adding aerosols might change the planet's cloud cover. Finally, in the late 1970s, powerful computers got to work on the stupefyingly
complex calculations, helped by data from volcanic eruptions. It became clear that overall, human production of aerosols was cooling
the atmosphere. Pollution was significantly delaying, and concealing, the coming of greenhouse effect warming.
SO2 significantly offsets global warming

Dr. P.J. Crutzen (Professor of metereology, majored in Academic Studies and Research activities, Worldwide most cited author in
the Geosciences with 2911 citations from 110 publications during the decade 1991-2001, ISI (Institute for Scientific Information,
Philadelphia), Senior Scientist and Director of the Air Quality Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder,
Colorado, USA., ALBEDO ENHANCEMENT BY STRATOSPHERIC SULFUR INJECTIONS: A CONTRIBUTION TO
RESOLVE A POLICY DILEMMA?, 2007, http://www.heartland.org/pdf/19632.pdf).
Fossil fuel burning releases about 25 Pg of CO2 per year into the atmosphere, which leads to global warming (Prentice et al.,
2001). However, it also emits 55 Tg S as SO2 per year (Stern, 2005), about half of which is converted to sub-micrometer size
sulfate particles, the remainder being dry deposited. Recent research has shown that the warming of earth by the increasing
concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases is partially countered by some backscattering to space of solar radiation by the
sulfate particles, which act as cloud condensation nuclei and thereby influence the micro-physical and optical properties of clouds,
affecting regional precipitation patterns, and increasing cloud albedo (e.g., Rosenfeld, 2000; Ramanathan et al., 2001; Ramaswamy
et al., 2001).
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Switch to alternative energy stops sulfur from massively offsetting global
warming
David Sington (studied natural science at Cambridge, works for BBC, awarded the Walter Sullivan Award for Excellence in Science
Journalism, In 2000, he was made an Honorary member of Sigma Xi, The Scientific Research Society,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Sington - cite_note-51/13/ 2005, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4171591.stm, “Why
the sun seems to be dimming”).
But perhaps the most alarming aspect of global dimming is that it may have led scientists to underestimate the true power of the
greenhouse effect. They know how much extra energy is being trapped in the Earth's atmosphere by the extra carbon dioxide we have
placed there. What has been surprising is that this extra energy has so far resulted in a temperature rise of just 0.6 degree Celsius.
This has led many scientists to conclude that the present-day climate is less sensitive to the effects of carbon dioxide than it was, say,
during the ice age, when a similar rise in CO2 led to a temperature rise of six degrees Celsius. But it now appears the warming from
greenhouse gases has been offset by a strong cooling effect from dimming - in effect two of our pollutants have been cancelling each
other out. This means that the climate may in fact be more sensitive to the greenhouse effect than previously thought. If so, then this
is bad news, according to Dr Peter Cox, one of the world's leading climate modellers. As things stand, CO2 levels are projected to rise
strongly over coming decades, whereas there are encouraging signs that particle pollution is at last being brought under control.
"We're going to be in a situation unless we act where the cooling pollutant is dropping off while the warming pollutant is going up.
"That means we'll get reducing cooling and increased heating at the same time and that's a problem for us," says Dr Cox. Even the
most pessimistic forecasts of global warming may now have to be drastically revised upwards. That means a temperature rise of 10
degrees Celsius by 2100 could be on the cards, giving the UK a climate like that of North Africa, and rendering many parts of the
world uninhabitable.
Aerosols create more, reflective cloud cover

But that is not all. Aerosols provide the condensation nuclei for most cloud droplets and studies have shown that aerosols of
human origin increase the density of cloud droplets, but result in smaller-sized droplets. The small cloud droplets do not form
into raindrops as readily as do the larger natural droplets. Studies comparing clouds over pollution tracks with adjacent less-
polluted zones have shown that clouds in both zones were of similar size and contained similar amounts of water, but average droplet
size in the polluted clouds was much smaller; when precipitation was observed outside pollution tracks, there was lower or nil
precipitation within them (Ramanathan, et al, 2001). It is also true that clouds of smaller droplets have higher albedo or
reflectivity, leading to further reductions in global irradiance.
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Experts believe aerosol leads to net cooling
Spencer Weart (Director of the Center for History of Physics of the American Institute of Physics (AIP) in College Park, PhD
in Physics and Astrophysics, 2007, “Aerosols: Volcanoes, Dust, Clouds and Climate,”
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/aerosol.htm).
Later, beginning around 2002, climatologists were surprised by evidence that hazes were having an even bigger effect than they had
supposed. As far back as 1989, Atsumu Ohmura in Switzerland had published evidence that sunlight had been growing dimmer
throughout the 20th century. Ohmura’s work had attracted scarcely any attention, even though some computer modellers had begun to
worry that their models did not seem to include enough aerosol absorption. Now evidence turned up by other scientists convinced
many experts that the Northern Hemisphere, at least, had seen a dimming of 10 percent or more — much more than the experts had
thought, indeed probably great enough to affect agriculture. Aerosol pollution was the only plausible cause. "There could be a big
gorilla sitting on the dining table, and we didn't know about it," Ramanathan admitted in 2004. Many aerosol specialists now
suspected that they had seriously underestimated how strongly greenhouse warming had been held back by the cooling effect of
aerosols. If so, then temperatures would now rise more sharply. For the "global dimming" trend was not really global but regional, and
during the 1980s it had reversed in many regions. Nobody could explain why this had happened. Perhaps one cause was the pollution
controls imposed by some nations, which had certainly been reducing sulfates. The way these sulfates and other aerosols had
previously kept some sunlight from reaching the surface had given the world "a false sense of security" about global warming, the
respected atmospheric scientist Paul Crutzen warned in 2003. Whatever was happening, it was more obvious than ever that the world
urgently needed better measurements of aerosols, and better models for how they blocked sunlight.(93a*) = Milestone Large
uncertainties also remained in figuring how aerosols interacted with gases, and above all with water vapor (the main "indirect
effect”"or "Twomey effect"). Questions were raised once again by detailed observations that confirmed the speculation that had first
started scientists worrying back in the 1960s — cirrus clouds did grow from jet contrails, visibly influencing the climate in regions
beneath heavily traveled air routes.(94*) Experts published widely divergent models for the formation of such clouds and their
absorption of radiation. Controversial measurements published in 1995 claimed that clouds absorbed much more radiation than the
conventional estimates said, raising a specter of "missing physics." As one researcher complained, "The complexity of this problem
seems to grow with each new study." It was reasonable to expect that improvements in theoretical models and measuring techniques
would eventually lead to a reconciliation (indeed within the next decade theory and observations would largely converge), but
meanwhile, Ramanathan admitted, "If I wake up with a nightmare, it is the indirect aerosol effect." And this effect was only one of
several areas where new studies kept showing that, as Ramanathan and a colleague remarked, people were still "in the early stages of
understanding the effects" of aerosols.(95*) This persistent ignorance about aerosols — their direct and indirect effects, and even their
concentrations — was the largest single obstacle to attempts to predict future climate, especially for a given region. Funding agencies
accordingly pushed vigorous and costly efforts to measure aerosol effects, and significant results accumulated in the early 21st
century. Yet different computer models still gave substantially different results, and if some issues were settled, new puzzles appeared
in theoretical papers or field studies to provoke new controversies. Nevertheless, most experts felt that they could at least fix a rough
range for the gross global consequences. They grew increasingly certain that the sum of human aerosol emissions had a net cooling
influence, at least in most parts of the world. Estimates of the magnitude of the cooling (both directly, and indirectly through clouds)
ranged from fairly small to quite strong. Pollution was delaying the appearance of greenhouse warming in some industrialized regions
and perhaps everywhere. As greenhouse gas emissions continued to accumulate, few doubted that the warming would soon leap
past any possible aerosol cooling effects.
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Aerosols have the capability to balance our CO2
Judith White, 7-16-2001, Professor at Texas A&M University, http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2001-07/tau-aph071601.php
Sure, air pollution is bad, but new research indicates that a limited amount of aerosol pollutants in the air could partially
counteract global warming, at least on a local scale.
Texas A&M University atmospheric sciences professor Don Collins has received grants from NASA and the National Science
Foundation (NSF) to design instruments to measure the impacts of aerosol pollution on climate. Collins will use funds from the
three-year NASA grant to develop an aircraft-mounted device to study the interaction of aerosols with light, while the five-year
NSF grant money will go toward an instrument to determine exactly which particles will form droplets in clouds. "Aerosols are
man-made chemical particles that accumulate in our atmosphere," said Collins, who teaches and conducts research in the
College of Geosciences' Department of Atmospheric Sciences. "Aerosols are the primary cause of the haze over a city on a
polluted day. Certain aerosol particles can absorb sunlight, while others scatter or reflect light. Increased concentrations of
particles can also modify clouds, which causes more energy to be reflected back into space." "As the atmosphere becomes
more polluted by man's activities, more sunlight may be reflected back into space, leading to a cooling effect on Earth's
climate," Collins said. "Although this cooling won't be enough to offset global warming over the entire Earth, it will compete with
warming effects on a small scale."
Aerosols counteract at least 75% of CO2 effects

WorldNetDaily.com, 6-10-03, http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=32992
It turns out there's a silver lining to the cloud of smog that drapes large cities around the world, as an international team of
atmospheric scientists conclude pollution protects the planet from "global warming." The revelation, reported by New
Scientist, came out of a workshop in Dahlem, Berlin, earlier this month that was attended by the likes of Nobel laureate Paul
Crutzen and Swedish meteorologist Bert Bolin, the former chairman of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, or IPCC. "It looks like the warming today may be only about a quarter of what we would have got without
aerosols," Crutzen told New Scientist. "You could say the cooling has done us a big favor." The IPCC and other proponents of global
warming believe the past century of human economic activities – especially the burning of fossil fuels such as oil and coal – have
vastly increased the amount of carbon dioxide, which traps heat in the Earth's atmosphere. Proponents say this acceleration of the
"greenhouse effect," has caused an estimated increase in the Earth's temperature of 0.6 degrees Celsius. Using computer models, the
IPCC predicts this global warming could amount to an increase in the earth's average temperature by as much as 10.4 degrees over the
next century. The panel has warned the long term consequences of this warming range from warmer winters and hotter summers to the
melting of the polar icecaps and a rise in mean sea level that will inundate coastal cities and cause devastating droughts, floods, violent
storms and spark outbreaks of cholera and malaria. According to New Scientist, IPCC scientists have long suspected aerosols,
particles from burning rainforests, crop waste and fossil fuels that block sunlight counteract the warming effect of carbon
dioxide emissions by about 25 percent. Now the news out of the Berlin workshop is the aerosols thwart 75 percent of the
warming effect. That would mean they prevented the planet from becoming almost two degrees warmer than it is now.
Scientists examined direct measurements of the cooling effect of aerosols reported in the May issue of Science by Theodore
Anderson of the University of Washington in Seattle. Earlier calculations only had been inferred from "missing" global warming
predicted by climate models.
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Reductions of Aerosols will lead to full fledged global warming effects
In recent years, there has been significant reduction in particulate pollution, especially in the developed world. The outcome has
been partly due to replacement of old industrial plant by newer, more efficient technology, but there has also been considerable
public pressure on political decision-makers to ‘clean up’ the air. Enforcement of tough emission controls requires technological
progress, and can even lead to job creation, so that particulate pollution control measures have been easy for the public to accept.
On the other hand, reduction of GHGs is a long-term goal (longer than the period between elections!) and success will entail
significant behaviour modification by luxury-loving consumers in the developed world, an unattractive prospect for political
decision-makers. It is therefore possible that well-meaning efforts in reducing visible atmospheric pollution such as aerosols
will allow the full global warming impact of greenhouse gas emissions to be felt.
Aerosols counteract global warming – when reduced, global warming

accelerates.
Christian Ruckstuhl, May 2008, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich,
http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/gl0812/2008GL034228/
A strong reduction in anthropogenic aerosol concentrations since the 1980s is not surprising given the tremendous efforts
made to cut air pollutant emissions. In its recent 25 year report entitled “Clearing the Air”, Long-Range Transboundary Air
Pollution (LRTAP) [2004] reported a 60% reduction in annual SO2 emissions in Europe from 1986 to 2000. Concentrations
measured at rural sites in Switzerland and Germany [European Monitoring Evaluation Programme, 2004] show that amongst other
gases and particles, SO2 decreased by 80 to 90 % mainly during the first part of the 1990s. But LRTAP also reported a strong
increase in SO2 emissions before 1980. These facts and our measurements, as well as recent reports on aerosol reduction over western
continents [Streets et al., 2006] and the oceans [Mishchenko et al., 2007] show that solar dimming and the subsequent brightening
– or rather solar recovery – is very likely related to changes in anthropogenic aerosols. With respect to the temperature evolution
in central Europe, increasing aerosols were apparently effective in masking greenhouse warming after the 1950s [Wild et al., 2007],
whereas the observed direct solar forcing due to the strong aerosol decline since the mid-1980s has reinforced greenhouse warming,
although the reduction of absorbing aerosols (such as black carbon) might have dampened the reinforcement. [18] Our analyses show
that AOD in the lower troposphere over mainland Europe has drastically decreased since 1986, and it is virtually certain that this is
due to the strong reduction in anthropogenic aerosol emissions. MODTRAN™ simulations have adequately confirmed the relationship
between decreasing AOD and increasing SDRcf [Ruckstuhl, 2008]. Surface radiation measurements show that solar brightening is
more related to direct aerosol effects under cloud-free skies than to indirect aerosol cloud effects. The fact that indirect aerosol cloud
effects remain small despite the 60% decline in aerosol concentrations is very surprising. However, it is possible that part of the cloud
mediated aerosol effect has been compensated by increasing cloudiness due to changing large-scale atmospheric circulation. With
respect to the impact on climate or surface temperature, the forcing due to the direct aerosol effect under cloud-free skies is about five
times larger than the total net forcing TNR cloud due to changing cloudiness, which to a large part is compensated by longwave cloud
effects and results in a week climate forcing of Overall, the aerosol and cloud induced radiative surface climate forcing over
mainland Europe has since the 1980s, and has very likely strongly contributed to the recent rapid warming in Europe.
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SO2 – AT: Hurts Plants

Global dimming increases photosynthesis leading to healthier plants
David Adam, (“Goodbye Sunshine,” staff writer for the Gaurdian, Farquhar (mentioned in article) is a climate scientist at the
Australian National University in Canberra, Dec 18, 2003, http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2003/dec/18/science.research1).
More importantly, what impact could global dimming have? If the effect continues then it's certainly bad news for solar power, as
darker, cloudier skies will reduce its meagre efficiency still further. The effect on photosynthesis, and so on plant and tree growth, is
more complicated and will probably be different in various parts of the world. In equatorial regions and parts of the southern
hemisphere regularly flooded with light, photosynthesis is likely to be limited by carbon dioxide or water, not sunshine, and light
levels would have to fall much further to force a change. In fact, in some cases photosynthesis could paradoxically increase slightly
with global dimming as the broken, diffuse light that emerges from clouds can penetrate deep into forest canopies more easily than
direct beams of sunlight from a clear blue sky.
Aerosols cause plants to take in more CO2

The impact of global dimming on agriculture is largely via photosynthesis and the principal limitation on this process in full
sunlight is the concentration of CO2. Most plant canopies usually consist of several leaf layers in which the incoming solar radiation
decreases exponentially from layer to layer; therefore low light levels at which photosynthesis is light-limited are common within crop
canopies. However, shade within vegetation canopies is greatly reduced on cloudy and/or very hazy days, compared to clear sunny
days. On sunny days the rays of the sun shine directly on the plants, but when it is hazy or cloudy much or all of the incoming
radiation is bounced off cloud droplets or atmospheric particles, forming what is called the diffuse fraction of solar radiance.
Vegetation is sensitive to changes in the diffuse fraction, and Roderick et al (2001) concluded that an unexpected decline in
atmospheric CO2 observed following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption in 1991 was, at least in art, caused by increased vegetation
uptake of CO2 as a response to enhancement of the diffuse fraction by volcanic aerosols. Because aerosols in the atmosphere
increase the diffuse fraction, it may seem that they would help to enhance plant productivity, but light is not the only limiting
factor: there is also water.
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Iron Sulfate CP
Dumping iron sulfate in the ocean solves warming – causes plankton blooms
Quirin Schiermeier, reporter for Nature journal on climate and environment issues, 4-22-04, “Fertilising the sea could combat
global warming,” http://www.nature.com/news/2004/040419/full/news040419-7.html
Dumping iron sulphate in the ocean to cause plankton blooms might not seem an eco-friendly way to tackle global
warming. But, according to the most extended trial of the technique so far, it could prove an effective one.
The outcome of the trial in the Southern Ocean, which surrounds Antarctica, was published in last week's Science. It suggests
that each atom of iron added to the sea could pull between 10,000 and 100,000 atoms of carbon out of the atmosphere by
encouraging plankton growth, which captures carbon and sinks it deep towards the ocean floor1.
If successfully scaled up, such 'iron fertilization' of the sea could make a real dent in the high level of carbon dioxide in
the atmosphere, which is causing global warming. Some researchers estimate that using the technique in the Southern
Ocean alone could absorb 15% of carbon dioxide build-up. But ecologists caution that the technique could damage marine
ecosystems in ways yet to be established2.
A team of oceanographers from Californian marine research institutes dropped 1.7 tonnes of iron sulphate in the sea as part of
the Southern Ocean Iron Experiment in 2002. They then used floating robots to measure the carbon flux - and found that lots of
biomass was indeed created and consigned to the depths of the ocean, either as dead algae or fish excrement.
The findings have fuelled expectations that ocean fertilization could provide an environmentally friendly technique for
reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. "It is a worthy endeavour to mitigate future global warming," says Russ
George, chief scientist of the California-based Planktos Foundation, a non-profit organization supported by the Canadian rock
star Neil Young, which promotes large-scale iron fertilization.
Iron sulfate increases plankton numbers, decreasing the amount of carbon in

the air
Anna Wellmann, reporter for Nature journal, 1-26-04, “Climate test sets sail,”
http://www.nature.com/news/2004/040119/full/news040119-17.html
The iron is expected to feed the growth of phytoplankton - single-celled algae that live in the sunlit upper layers of the sea -
in areas where they are limited by little natural iron in the water.
As phytoplankton grow, they absorb CO2 from the atmosphere in order to photosynthesize. Phytoplankton are
currently responsible for almost half of the overall photosynthetic activity on Earth. Some researchers think that
increasing their activity would be a good way to reduce the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, helping to slow the
rate of global warming.
216

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Warming Generic – Updated

DDI 2008 – Clark/Martin Lab

Warming Bad – Ext. African Instability............................................................................................................38

Warming Bad – Ice Age......................................................................................................................................70

Warming Bad – Outweighs Nuclear War........................................................................................................102

Ext. 6 – Warming Not Anthropogenic.............................................................................................................134

CO2 Impact – Ext. Carbon Sinks.....................................................................................................................199

Beware of conflicting arguments. Not all of the arguments can be run

Warming Now – Generic

GHG and warming are increasing in the Status Quo

Warming Now – Generic

Warming Now – Generic

Global warming rate is accelerating

Warming rates are increasing

Warming Now – 10 Degrees

Warming Now – Arctic Melting

Warming Now – Precipitation

Warming Now – Sea Level Rise

Warming Now – AT: Balloons and Satellites Disprove

Models agree on fundamental effects of global warming – prefer consensus

AT: Models Fail – Chaos Theory

AT: Models Fail – Urban Heat Island

Positive Feedback – Melting Ice

Positive Feedback – Ocean Sink Saturation

Positive Feedback – Permafrost

Positive Feedback – Water Vapor

Positive Feedback – AT: Clouds = Negative Feedback

Positive Feedbacks > Negative Feedbacks

Global warming exists and is man-made.

Anthropogenic warming occurring

Anthropogenic warming- models prove

Warming Anthropogenic – CO2

Consensus Goes Aff – IPCC

Drastic action to reduce warming necessary now

Author Indict – Michaels & McKitrick

**WARMING BAD IMPACTS

Warming Bad – Extinction

Global warming causes extinction due to methane-filled clathrates

Warming Bad – Extinction

Warming Bad – African Instability Module

WAR IN AFRICA WILL RESULT IN INTERVENTION AND NUCLEAR WAR

Warming Bad – Ext. African Instability

Warming Bad – Arctic Conflict Module

Arctic conflict goes nuclear

Warming Bad – Ext. Arctic Conflict

Warming Bad – Asia Module

Warming Bad – Berents Sea Module

Warming Bad – Biodiversity Module

Warming Bad – Biodiversity Module

Warming Bad – Ext. Biodiversity

Warming devastates ecosystems- extreme heat, cold, drought, and rain

Warming Bad – Ext. Biodiversity

Global warming will lead to species loss, culminating in extinction

Warming Bad – Ext. Biodiversity

Warming increases oceanic acidity which leads to species extinction

Warming Bad – Blackouts Module

Blackouts permanently cripple the US econmy

US economic decline causes nuclear war

Warming Bad – Coral

Warming Bad – Coral

C02 emissions destroy coral causes ocean acidification- harming coral

Warming Bad – Coral

Warming kills coral, hurting biodiversity

Warming Bad – Coral