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The Cellulose Gap

The Cellulose Gap


(The Future of Cellulose Fibres) Franz Martin Haemmerle

Updated: Sept. 2011

Franz Martin Haemmerle

The Cellulose Gap

Population Growth Need for Food and Textile Fibres Availability of Arable Land
90%
84%

Textile fibres demand


75%

Food demand Poulation


63%

Growth resp. Decline in %

60% 45% 30% 15%


0%

Arable land
42% 43% 34% 21% 24% 20% 12% 11% 6% -1.2% -2.5% -3.7% -4.9% 16%

0% -15% 2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Franz Martin Haemmerle

The Cellulose Gap

Thomas Robert Malthus: The Principle of Population


In 1798, Malthus (*1766, 1834), an English economist, wrote in his Essay on the Principle of Population: Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio, but subsistence increases only in an arithmetical ratio.

Point of crisis (hunger beyond this point?)

Population growth rate: geometrical or exponential growth

Food production rate: arithmetic growth

Franz Martin Haemmerle

The Cellulose Gap

Thomas Robert Malthus: The Principle of Population


This publication roused a storm of controversy.

Malthus failed to foresee the astonishing development of transport and colonisation which took place in the 19th century and which increased so enormously the area from which foodstuffs and raw materials could be drawn. With the advent of the progressive agribusiness (Post-war Green Revolution), the use of synthetic fertiliser, pesticides, state-of-the-art irrigation systems and today the genetic engineering were the driving forces for the exponential growth of the food production.

Franz Martin Haemmerle

The Cellulose Gap

Malthusians Miserys Comeback


But today, 200 years later, Malthus theory wins a certain confirmation, because the number of malnourished people is growing. The world population growth is outpacing the food supply.
Percentage of Population affected by Undernourishment by Country

Source: United Nations Statistic

Franz Martin Haemmerle

The Cellulose Gap

Today more than 1 billion people are hungry


In 1996, world leaders attending the World Food Summit in Rome committed themselves to half the number of undernourished people by 2015. In 1996 we had 825, but today we have more than a billion undernourished people.
Near East and North Africa, 42 Latin America and the Caribbean, 53

2009: in million people

Developed countries, 15

Sub-Saharan Africa, 265

Asia and the Pacific, 642

Source: FAO

Franz Martin Haemmerle

The Cellulose Gap

Arable Land
Of the earths 149 million km of land, approximately 17.3 million km are cultivated.
Arable land: 10.6 % = 15.8 mill. km Planted with permanent crops: 1.0 % = 1.5 mill. km

Arable land is land cultivated with crops that are replanted after each harvest, like all sorts of grains, sugar or cotton. (= annual plants)
Permanent crop land is land cultivated with crops that are not replanted after each harvest, like citrus, coffee or rubber. (= perennial plants) The remaining 132 million km are permanent pastures, forests, barren land and built-on areas.

Franz Martin Haemmerle

13.40

12.60

12.80

13.00

13.20

13.60

13.80

14.00

14.20

moving 5 years average

The Cellulose Gap

Arable land

(in million ha)

8
Source: FAO

1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Franz Martin Haemmerle

The Cellulose Gap

Loss of Arable Land


Arable land is currently being lost at the rate of 10 to 20 million hectares per year, caused by desertification, salinisation and urbanisation. Urbanisation alone is responsible for about 3 - 4 million hectares 8.0 billion
3.0 billion 5.3 billon

In 1960 worldwide approximately 4,400 m of arable land per capita was available, 30 years later merely 2,700 m and in 2025 most probably only 1,700 m.

4,400 m per capita

2,700 m p.c.

1,700 m p.c.

1960

1990

2025

Agricultural land is constantly losing soil and fertility,caused by wind and water erosion, nutrient depletion and chemical pollution.. To secure food production more arable land would be necessary !!
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The Cellulose Gap

Agricultural Yields
Future production increases can only be reached by an enhancement of the yield per area and not by an expansion of the area. Intensification of the production requires a much higher input of inorganic fertilisers and pesticides as well as a substantial improvement of the irrigation systems. But ironically all these efforts decrease the yields in the long run. With an ecological cultivation the inputs of synthetic fertilisers and pesticides can be reduced or avoided, but the yields will be much lower.

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Franz Martin Haemmerle

The Cellulose Gap

Yield / Genetically Modified Crops


The only practical method to reduce the input of pesticides and to increase the yield at the same time is the use of genetically modified crops. Several of the important crops are already genetically engineered soybeans, maize, cotton and canola (a variety of rapeseed). Genetic engineering is an absolute necessity for the nutrition and for the environment !!

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Franz Martin Haemmerle

The Cellulose Gap

Global Adoption Rates for Principal Biotech Crops


(2010; in % and in million ha)
180

160
140

million hectars

120 100 80 60
17
112

Conventional Biotech

40
20 0

73 12 21 46 24 7

81% 64% Soybean Cotton

29% Maize

23% Canola

Source: ISAAA

Over the last years the area planted with gene-modified crops is growing by 10 million hectares p.a. and has reached 148 million hectares in 2010.
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The Cellulose Gap

Genetically Engineered Crops


Genetic engineering offers faster crop adaptation as well as a more biological, rather than a chemical approach to yield increases.

Refusing genetic engineering makes the food problem even more daunting.
People have been genetically modifying plants for more than 10,000 years.

Genetic engineering is nothing else as the shortening of the evolution.

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Franz Martin Haemmerle

The Cellulose Gap

Conclusion

In the near future we will have a desperate shortage of fertile farmland. Arable land on which non-food crops are growing today has to be used more and more for food crops in the future. Food crops should be used for feeding people, not for animal feed or bio-fuels.

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Franz Martin Haemmerle

The Cellulose Gap

Cotton: Harvested Area 1945/46 2010/11


Over the last 60 years the area on which cotton was grown fluctuated between 29 and 36 million hectares. The area will be dependent upon the prices for food and cotton, but will certainly shrink in future.
million hectars
38 36 34

36.0

35.9

32
30 28 26 24 22 20

= 1.8 -2.3% of arable land

29.3

28 million ha ?

Source: USDA

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Franz Martin Haemmerle

The Cellulose Gap

Cotton: Decline of planted areas


In many countries the cotton growing area is declining; e.g. in the States.
7,000 6,500

million hectars

6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500

3,000
2,500 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 Source: USDA

Cotton farmers in the US, in China and in Europe can only survive with the help of subsidies.
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The Cellulose Gap

Cotton: Yield 1945/46 2009/10


For the next two decades the yield will certainly increase, because of the intensified cultivation of genetically modified cotton.
Brazil China 5.4% 31.6%

US

925 kg/ha ?
Pakistan
Uzbekistan

12.0% India 9.5% 3.8%

22.7%

Yield in 2009/10 and share (%) of global production


Source: USDA

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Franz Martin Haemmerle

The Cellulose Gap

Cotton: Production 1896/97 2010/11


million metric tons
30
26.5

25

20

15

10

Source: USDA, ICAC

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Franz Martin Haemmerle

The Cellulose Gap

Future Production of Cotton


arable land is declining or deteriorating
land loss and soil degradation

area for food has to be expanded


the cotton production sinks because more and more farmers decide to cultivate plants which contribute to the nutrition and bring higher and primarily safer incomes

In future less land will be available for cotton growing !!

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Franz Martin Haemmerle

The Cellulose Gap

Assumption of Cotton Production for the next two Decades


When the planted area drops to approximately 28.0 million hectares until 2030 and the yield increases to 925 kg/ha, the maximum possible production of cotton will be around 26 million metric tons per year.
Year Area mill. ha (assumption) 31.0 Yield kg/ha (assumption) 850 Theoretical maximum production mill. metric tons 26.35

2015

2020
2025

30.0
29.0

875
900

26.25
26.10

2030
Cotton Year 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

28.0
Production (in mill. tons) 22.0 24.9 26.9

925

25.90
Consumption 25.3 24.4 24.7

Source: ICAC projection (Sept. 1, 2011)

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Franz Martin Haemmerle

The Cellulose Gap

Cotton Price
During the last two years the price has risen strongly. With the stagnation or with the decline of the production the price will even out certainly above the 10-year average of 60 cents/lb.
US cents/lb
220

"A" Index (Jan 2001 - Aug 2011)


229.6

170

120

Season average: 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11

62 cents/lb 78 164
114.1 81.54

70

76.77 64.13 48.60 37.22


Jan-03 Jan-08
Jul-01 Jul-02 Jul-03 Jul-04 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07

51.50

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jan-01

Jan-02

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Oct-10

Apr-01

Oct-01

Apr-02

Oct-02

Apr-03

Oct-03

Apr-04

Oct-04

Apr-05

Oct-05

Apr-06

Oct-06

Apr-07

Oct-07

Apr-08

Oct-08

Apr-09

Oct-09

Apr-10

Source: National Cotton Councils of America

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Franz Martin Haemmerle

Apr-11

Jul-11

20

120

170

220

US cents/lb

Jan-01 Apr-01 Jul-01

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

100

in %

80

Oct-01 Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul-02 Oct-02

Jan-03
Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05

The Cellulose Gap

Cotton Price FAO Food Price Index

The FAO Food Price Index (2002 2004 = 100%) shows a similar trend.

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Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07

Jan-08
Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10

Oct-10
Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11

20

70

Source: National Cotton Councils of America

Franz Martin Haemmerle

The Cellulose Gap

World Population Prospects Growth of World Population (2005 2030)


During the next 20 years the world population will increase by 1.4 billion people.

1.4 billion

Source: World Population Prospects (Medium Variant); United Nations, Population Division; The 2008 Revision Population Database.

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Franz Martin Haemmerle

The Cellulose Gap

Fibre Consumption per Capita (1900 2010)


Economic Crash

2nd World War

in 10-annual steps

in 5-annual steps

in annual steps

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The Cellulose Gap


Future Per Capita Textile Fibres Consumption 2010 - 2030
(assumption for 2015 - 2030)

Future Textile Fibres Consumption 2010 -2030


(assumption for 2015 2030)

Income and population growth are the major factors driving increases in textile consumption. Over the next 5 years the per capita fibre consumption will grow around 2.5% p.a., in the following years the growth rate will decline to 1.5%.
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The Cellulose Gap

Historical and Future Development of Fibre and Filament Consumption


Year Wool Cotton Man-made cellulosic fibres Historical Data 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2005 2010 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.2 3.2 4.6 6.9 10.1 13.8 18.9 24.8 21.8 0.0 0.0 1.1 2.7 3.5 2.8 3.3 4.2 Future (assumption) 2015 est. 2020 est. 2025 est. 2030 est. 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 26.4* 26.3* 26.1* 25.9* * Possible peak production 6.2 10.3 14.8 19.0 53.6 65.0 76.1 87.4 87.4 102.8 118.2 133.5 37.2 35.6 34.6 33.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 10.8 28.4 37.0 45.3 3.9 5.4 9.1 15.0 29.7 51.5 66.3 72.5 82.1 85.2 87.9 85.3 58.2 42.1 42.4 35.9 Synthetic fibres Total %-age of cellulosic fibres

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Franz Martin Haemmerle

The Cellulose Gap

Share of Fibre Production (in %) 1900 - 2030


(assumption for 2015 2030)

37% 33%

140 120

million metric tons

100
80

Synthetic Cellulosic
Cotton

Fibre Production (in mill. tons) 1900 2030


(assumption for 2015 2030) Cellulose Gap

60 40 20 0 1900 1920

Wool

1940

1960

1980

2000

2005

2010

2015 est.

2020 est.

2025 est.

2030 est.

Cellulosic: Viscose, Lyocell, Modal, Acetate, Cupro, Triacetate

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The Cellulose Gap

Fibre Production
The per capita fibre consumption will grow.

The production of natural fibres will remain constant or shrink.


The growth of total fibre consumption can only be covered by man-made fibres.

Certain properties of cellulosic fibres cannot be substituted by petroleum-based synthetics (Polyester, Polyacrylonitrile, Polyamide, Polypropylene and others).
Cellulosic fibres (cotton and man-made cellulosic fibres) will make up 33 37% of the fibre market.

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Franz Martin Haemmerle

The Cellulose Gap

Man-made Cellulosic Fibres as a Substitute of Cotton


Cotton and man-made cellulose fibres are hydrophilic and stand for absorbency and breathability. These inherent physiological fibre properties are ideal for the moisture management. The fibres can absorb sufficient moisture, which they then release into the surrounding air. This function ensures an adequate temperature balance on the skin, especially where textiles touch the skin. For these reasons cellulosic fibres are ideal in various fields of application in textile and garment industry for woven and knitted fabrics nonwovens Man-made cellulose fibres are an ideal substitute for cotton !!

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Franz Martin Haemmerle

The Cellulose Gap

Man-made Cellulosic Fibres as a Substitute for Cotton


Viscose ViscoseBlends Lyocell LyocellBlends Modal ModalBlends

Woven and knitted fabrics Apparel Underwear Knits

Bottom weights
Active wear Socks Shirts / Blouses Home textiles Bed linen Towels Filling Nonwovens

Cleaning rags
Sanitary articles Baby wipes

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Franz Martin Haemmerle

The Cellulose Gap

Estimated Demand of Man-Made Cellulosic Fibres


(assumption for 2015 2030)

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Franz Martin Haemmerle

The Cellulose Gap

Estimated per Capita Consumption of Cellulosic Fibres


(assumption for 2015 2030)

Cellulose Gap

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Franz Martin Haemmerle

The Cellulose Gap

Fibre Consumption resp. Production


Growth Rate in %
12
10.9

10
8.1

7.3

2010-2015 2015-2020
5.1 3.9 3.4 3.8

2020-2025 2025-2030
3.3
2.8 2.8 2.5

3.2

0 Man-made cellulose fibres Petroleum-based synthetics Total (incl. natural fibres)

The demand of man-made cellulose fibres will increase disproportionally. 33 Franz Martin Haemmerle

The Cellulose Gap

Sustainability
A sustainable fibre production tries to achieve three goals to effect the environment in a positive way ( ecology), to be economical and profitable ( economy) and to enhance the quality of life ( social responsibility).

Ecology

Economy

Sustainability

Social responsibility

In all three fields man-made cellulose fibres show better results than cotton.
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Sustainability of Cotton
The sustainability of cotton is strongly dependent on consumption of pesticides and fertilisers gene-modified cotton (70%) or conventional cotton (30%) with different cultivation system conventional IPM (Integrated Pest Management) organic (<1%) water consumption rain-fed (<40%) irrigated (>60%) 97% flood or furrow irrigation (20-50% water efficiency) 2% mobile irrigation systems (80-90% water eff.) 1% drip irrigation (90-98% water eff.) land use (resp. yield) but in comparison to man-made cellulose fibres like Viscose, Lyocell or Modal cotton is not sustainable at all.
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The Cellulose Gap

Sustainability of Cellulosic Fibres


Fibres with prefixes as eco-, bio-, natural- and organic- are not always sustainable. For example water consumption is not a criterion for the certification as organic cotton. This proves that even bio is not unavoidable eco. Life cycle analyses also show that man-made cellulosic fibres have much smaller carbon footprint compared to cotton. For the production of man-made cellulose fibres no pesticides and synthetic fertilisers are needed.

The natural origin of man-made cellulosic fibres from the renewable resource wood contributes to a sustainable future.

The substitution of cotton by man-made cellulose fibres is also a contribution to environmental protection !!

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The Cellulose Gap

Water requirement for one kg of fibres

16,000 14,000
11,700

14,300

litre water

12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000


8,300

10,000

4,000
2,000 0 Lyocell Viscose Modal GM-cotton (1,200 kg/ha) IPM cotton conventional organic (1,000 cotton cotton kg/ha) (850 kg/ha) (700 kg/ha)
265 445

470

Irrigated cotton in a hot environment requires 20 - 35 times more water than cellulose fibres.
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The Cellulose Gap

How much water is available?

97.5% Salt water

1.4 billion km

2.5% Freshwater

Ice and glaciers Undergroundwater Permafrost Lakes, rivers etc 0.8% 0.4% 0% 20% 40% 60%

68.7%

30.1%

80%

= 140,000 km or 0,01%

Source: UNESCO; WWAP

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Franz Martin Haemmerle

The Cellulose Gap

Water requirement
More than 70 per cent of world freshwater consumption is used for irrigation and 60 per cent of the irrigation water is wasted due to inappropriate techniques. Intensive irrigation, especially flood or furrow irrigation, can cause waterlogging with a catastrophic long-term effect, salinisation. Approximately one third of the world population suffers from water shortage today, up to the year 2025 this share most likely will expand to two thirds and the number of conflicts between different countries is likely to rise. Water will become the oil of the future !!

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Franz Martin Haemmerle

The Cellulose Gap

Water requirement
One of the biggest environmental disasters was caused by cotton. The Aral Sea was the 4th biggest freshwater sea on earth, which has nearly disappeared over the last three decades, by using the water of the rivers for irrigation.

Kazakhstan

Uzbekistan

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The Cellulose Gap

Areas required for one tonne of fibres


2.00 2.0 1.8 1.6

1.4

hectares

1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Lyocell Viscose Modal 0.24 0.70

1.00

0.69

irrigated cotton (1,000 kg/ha)

rain-fed cotton (500 kg/ha)

Compared to cotton cultivation, the yield of cellulose fibre from Central European beech forests and from fast-growing eucalyptus is much higher. The humanity needs more land for food !!
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The Cellulose Gap

Sustainability Ranking of Cellulosic Fibres


Man-made Cellulose Fibres
Lenzing Viscose Austria
Environmental impacts Use of pesticides (+ human impact) Synthetic fertilizer, manure Soil degradation, depletition, ecotoxicity, acidification, eutrophication, etc Resources Cumulative energy demand Land use, yield Water consumption (incl. process + irrigation water) Fibre quality (spinnability, waste) Sustainability Points forest land forest land forest land forest land agricultural land 110 -120% rainfed good irrig. agricultural land 70 80% rainfed reduced irrig. agricultural land 80 90% rainfed good irrig. agricultural land 100% rainfed good irrig. no

Cotton
Lenzing Viscose Asia Gen-modified 70% Organic 1% IPM 5-10% Conventional 20-25%

Lyocell (Tencel)
no

Lenzing Modal
no

no

little

no

high

huge

no

very lttle

no

no

synthetic fertilizer (little)

only natural manure

synthetic fertilizer (high)

synthetic fertilizer (very high)

rain-fed

rain-fed

rain-fed

rain-fed

excellent

excellent

excellent

excellent

26

24

24

21

21

19

20

16

15

12

13

10

Ranking
sustainable
4 3 2 1 0

11

10

12

30 50% higher fibre price

rain-fed cotton <40% irrigated cotton >60%

yes

no

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Franz Martin Haemmerle

The Cellulose Gap

Final Conclusion
Companies which today are using mainly cotton will have to add man-made cellulose fibres to their production programme. Man-made cellulose fibres are in contrary to cotton extremely sustainable fibres.

In comparison to cotton man-made cellulose fibres have some important assets


- no arable land is necessary, the trees (eucalyptus and beeches) for the pulp production are growing in forests or on marginal land, - less water consumption, - no input of pesticides and fertilizers.

The substitution of cotton by man-made cellulose fibres is an important step in order to protect our environment. Man-made cellulose fibres are real ecological fibres !!
43 Franz Martin Haemmerle

The Cellulose Gap

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Franz Martin Haemmerle

The Cellulose Gap

Franz Martin Haemmerle Arenberggasse 1/5 A-1030 Vienna /Austria Email: fmhaemmerle@hotmail.com
45 Franz Martin Haemmerle

The Cellulose Gap

Demand of man-made cellulose fibres


(Sensitivity analysis)
World population

Textile fibres per head consumption

Total fibre demand

Share of cellulose fibres

Cotton harvested area

Yield

Demand for cellulose fibres

Cotton production

Demand for man-made cellulose fibres

= variables

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Franz Martin Haemmerle