%% SALES FORECASTING MODEL % Following code is am implementation of forecasting models discussed in % section 4.

3 % % Written by Omkar Sayaji Hande %% INITIALIZATION % Data is read from excel sheets and stored in form of arrays. The sizes of % each array are stored in separate variables. Other matrices which will be % used in future are intialized as well. B=ones(39,7); E=ones(40,8); bsl=xlsread('bsl.xlsx'); ash=xlsread('ashley.xlsx'); mnm=xlsread('MnM.xlsx'); voltas=xlsread('voltas.xlsx'); metal=xlsread('metal.xlsx'); maruti=xlsread('maruti.xlsx'); eicher=xlsread('eicher.xlsx'); tata=xlsread('tata.xlsx'); [bsl_m bsl_n]=size(bsl); [ash_m ash_n]=size(ash); [mnm_m mnm_n]=size(mnm); [voltas_m voltas_n]=size(voltas); [metal_m metal_n]=size(metal); [maruti_m maruti_n]=size(maruti); [eicher_m eicher_n]=size(eicher); [tata_m tata_n]=size(tata); initial_m=[bsl_m ash_m mnm_m voltas_m metal_m maruti_m eicher_m]; %% REGRESSION ANALYSIS MODEL % The regression model discussed in 4.3.2 is implemented in this section. % The results obtained are written to an excel file as output. C=bsl(1:39); B(:,1)=1; B(:,2)=ash(2:40); B(:,3)=mnm(2:40); B(:,4)=voltas(2:40); B(:,5)=metal(2:40); B(:,6)=maruti(2:40); B(:,7)=eicher(2:40); B(:,8)=tata(2:40); theta_bsl_2=(inv((transpose(B))*B))*((transpose(B))*C); xlswrite('forecast.xlsx',C,'Reg', 'A1'); xlswrite('forecast.xlsx',B,'Reg', 'B1'); xlswrite('forecast.xlsx',B*theta_bsl_2,'Reg','J1'); %% TIME SERIES AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS MODEL % The time series and regression model discussed in section 4.3.3 is % implemented in this section. The output is written into an excel file. D=bsl(1:40); E(:,1)=1; E(:,2)=ash(1:40);

E(:,3)=mnm(1:40); E(:,4)=voltas(1:40); E(:,5)=metal(1:40); E(:,6)=maruti(1:40); E(:,7)=eicher(1:40); E(:,8)=tata(1:40); theta_bsl_3=(inv((transpose(E))*E))*((transpose(E))*D); xlswrite('forecast.xlsx',D,'TS&Reg', 'A1'); xlswrite('forecast.xlsx',E,'TS&Reg', 'B1'); xlswrite('forecast.xlsx',E*theta_bsl_3,'TS&Reg','J1'); %% TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON BHUSHAN STEEL'S SALES % Time series analysis discussed in section 4.3.1 is implemented here. The % results are stored in an excel file. j=2; clear A; bsl_m=bsl_m - 3; for i=1:bsl_m temp=j; A(i,2)=bsl(j,1); j=j+1; A(i,3)=bsl(j,1); j=j+1; A(i,4)=bsl(j,1); j=temp+1; end A(:,1)=1; bsl=bsl(1:bsl_m); theta_bsl=(inv((transpose(A))*A))*((transpose(A))*bsl); xlswrite('forecast.xlsx',bsl,'TS', 'A1'); xlswrite('forecast.xlsx',A,'TS', 'B1'); xlswrite('forecast.xlsx',A*theta_bsl,'TS','F1'); f_bsl=[1 bsl(1) A(1,2) A(1,3)]*theta_bsl; %% TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON SALES OF ASHOK LEYLAND % Time series analysis on sales of ashok leyland is performed here. This is % required for forecasting method discussed in section 4.3.3. clear A j temp; j=2; ash_m=ash_m - 3; for i=1:ash_m temp=j; A(i,2)=ash(j,1); j=j+1; A(i,3)=ash(j,1); j=j+1; A(i,4)=ash(j,1); j=temp+1; end A(:,1)=1; ash=ash(1:ash_m); theta_ash=(inv((transpose(A))*A))*((transpose(A))*ash);

f_ash=[1 ash(1) A(1,2) A(1,3)]*theta_ash; %% TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON SALES OF MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA % Time series analysis on sales of Mahindra and Mahindra is performed here. % This is required for forecasting method discussed in section 4.3.3. clear A j temp; j=2; mnm_m=mnm_m - 3; for i=1:mnm_m temp=j; A(i,2)=mnm(j,1); j=j+1; A(i,3)=mnm(j,1); j=j+1; A(i,4)=mnm(j,1); j=temp+1; end A(:,1)=1; mnm=mnm(1:mnm_m); theta_mnm=(inv((transpose(A))*A))*((transpose(A))*mnm); f_mnm=[1 mnm(1) A(1,2) A(1,3)]*theta_mnm; %% TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON SALES OF VOLTAS % Time series analysis on sales of voltas is performed here. This is % required for forecasting method discussed in section 4.3.3. clear A j temp; j=2; voltas_m=voltas_m - 3; for i=1:voltas_m temp=j; A(i,2)=voltas(j,1); j=j+1; A(i,3)=voltas(j,1); j=j+1; A(i,4)=voltas(j,1); j=temp+1; end A(:,1)=1; voltas=voltas(1:voltas_m); theta_voltas=(inv((transpose(A))*A))*((transpose(A))*voltas); f_voltas=[1 voltas(1) A(1,2) A(1,3)]*theta_voltas; %% TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON INTERNATIONAL METAL INDEX % Time series analysis on international metal index is performed here. This % is required for forecasting method discussed in section 4.3.3. clear A j temp; j=2; metal_m=metal_m - 3; for i=1:metal_m temp=j; A(i,2)=metal(j,1); j=j+1;

A(i,3)=metal(j,1); j=j+1; A(i,4)=metal(j,1); j=temp+1; end A(:,1)=1; metal=metal(1:metal_m); theta_metal=(inv((transpose(A))*A))*((transpose(A))*metal); f_metal=[1 metal(1) A(1,2) A(1,3)]*theta_metal; %% TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON SALES OF MARUTI SUZUKI % Time series analysis on sales of maruti suzuki is performed here. This is % required for forecasting method discussed in section 4.3.3. clear A j temp; j=2; maruti_m=maruti_m - 3; for i=1:maruti_m temp=j; A(i,2)=maruti(j,1); j=j+1; A(i,3)=maruti(j,1); j=j+1; A(i,4)=maruti(j,1); j=temp+1; end A(:,1)=1; maruti=maruti(1:maruti_m); theta_maruti=(inv((transpose(A))*A))*((transpose(A))*maruti); f_maruti=[1 maruti(1) A(1,2) A(1,3)]*theta_maruti; %% TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON SALES OF EICHER % Time series analysis on sales of eicher is performed here. This is % required for forecasting method discussed in section 4.3.3. clear A j temp; j=2; eicher_m=eicher_m - 3; for i=1:eicher_m temp=j; A(i,2)=eicher(j,1); j=j+1; A(i,3)=eicher(j,1); j=j+1; A(i,4)=eicher(j,1); j=temp+1; end A(:,1)=1; eicher=eicher(1:eicher_m); theta_eicher=(inv((transpose(A))*A))*((transpose(A))*eicher); f_eicher=[1 eicher(1) A(1,2) A(1,3)]*theta_eicher; %% TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON SALES OF TATA MOTORS % Time series analysis on sales of tata motors is performed here. This is

% required for forecasting method discussed in section 4.3.3. clear A j temp; j=2; tata_m=tata_m - 3; for i=1:tata_m temp=j; A(i,2)=tata(j,1); j=j+1; A(i,3)=tata(j,1); j=j+1; A(i,4)=tata(j,1); j=temp+1; end A(:,1)=1; tata=tata(1:tata_m); theta_tata=(inv((transpose(A))*A))*((transpose(A))*tata); %% DISPLAY OF FINAL OUTPUT f_tata=[1 tata(1) A(1,2) A(1,3)]*theta_tata; f_sales=[1 ash(1,1) mnm(1,1) voltas(1,1) metal(1,1) maruti(1,1) eicher(1,1) tata (1,1)]*theta_bsl_2; f_sales_2=[1 f_ash f_mnm f_voltas f_metal f_maruti f_eicher f_tata]*theta_bsl_3; clc fprintf('\n\nSales prediction by Regression Analysis %d\n\n', f_sales); fprintf('\n\nSales prediction by Time Series and Regression Analysis %d\n\n', f_ sales_2); fprintf('\n\nSales prediction by Time Series Analysis %d\n\n', f_bsl); %% CORRECTION IN TIME SERIES MODEL OF 4.3.1 % Due to appearence of a time series like pattern amongst the errors of thw % forecasted sales, we take a log transformation and rework the data by % following the same process again. clear; j=2; bsl=xlsread('bsl.xlsx'); [bsl_m bsl_n]=size(bsl); bsl_m=bsl_m - 3; bsl=log(bsl); for i=1:bsl_m temp=j; A(i,2)=bsl(j,1); j=j+1; A(i,3)=bsl(j,1); j=j+1; A(i,4)=bsl(j,1);

j=temp+1; end A(:,1)=1; bsl=bsl(1:bsl_m); theta_bsl=(inv((transpose(A))*A))*((transpose(A))*bsl); xlswrite('forecast.xlsx',bsl,'TS_Log', 'A1'); xlswrite('forecast.xlsx',A,'TS_Log', 'B1'); xlswrite('forecast.xlsx',A*theta_bsl,'TS_Log','F1'); f_bsl_2=[1 bsl(1) A(1,2) A(1,3)]*theta_bsl; fprintf('\n\nSales prediction by Time Series Analysis after taking log %d\n\n', exp(f_bsl_2)); %% WRITTEN BY OMKAR SAYAJI HANDE