PROBABILITY IN

HYDROLOGY:

A BASIS FOR PLANNING
GOAL :



Not to eliminate all floods but to
reduce the frequency of flooding and,
hence, the resulting damages.
Does a flood have anything to do
with earthquakes and tsunamis ?
Yes, because those things cause
floods.
Some other causes are soil erosion
and too much precipitation (snow and
rain).
Is flood water fresh water or salt water?
If you guessed fresh water you are
mostly right.
Floods usually come from a body of
freshwater caused by precipitation
If you guessed salt water you were
right in one case
Floods caused by tsunamis are salt
FLOOD PROBABILITY
SELECTION OF DATA

PLOTTING POSITIONS

THEORETICAL
DISTRIBUTION OF FLOODS
SELECTION OF DATA
RELEVANCE
Implies that the data must deal with the problem.

ADEQUACY
refers primarily to length of record.

ACCURACY
refers primarily to the problem of homogeneity.
) (t E
Return Period
Random variable:
Threshold level:
Extreme event occurs if:
Recurrence interval:
Return Period:
Average recurrence interval between events
equaling or exceeding a threshold
If p is the probability of occurrence of an extreme
event, then

or
Return Period
X
T
x
T
x X >
T
x X > = of ocurrences between Time t
) (t E
p
T E
1
) ( = = t
T
x X P
T
1
) ( = >
PLOTTING POSITIONS
The plotting position formulae are applied to
compute the probability of occurrence of observed
Weibulls Formula:
F(Q) = i/(N+1)
Gringorten Formula:
F(Q) = (i-0.44)/(N+0.12)

Where F(Q) = Non-exceedance probability
i = Rank (1,2,3,., N)
N = Total number of data points
Probability plot of flood flows

Goal: to determine design
discharges
Flood economic studies require flood
discharge estimates for a range of return
periods
2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, 500 years
Flood mapping studies use a smaller
number of return periods
10, 50, 100, 500 years
100 year flood is that discharge which is
equaled or exceeded, on average, once
per 100 years.

x
f
X
(x)
s K
T
x
T
x
T
x X P
T
1
) ( = >
Frequency Factors
Chow proposed using:


Where:

s K x x
T T
+ =
deviation standard Sample
mean Sample
period Return
factor Frequency
magnitude event Estimated
=
=
=
=
=
s
x
T
K
x
T
T
x
f
X
(x)
s K
T
x
T
x
T
x X P
T
1
) ( = >
More on return period
If p is probability of success, then (1-
p) is the probability of failure
Find probability that (X x
T
) at least
once in N years.

N
N
T
T T
T
T
T
p years N in once least at x X P
years N all x X P years N in once least at x X P
p x X P
x X P p
|
.
|

\
|
= = >
< = >
= <
> =
1
1 1 ) 1 ( 1 ) (
) ( 1 ) (
) 1 ( ) (
) (
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1905 1908 1918 1927 1938 1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998
Year
A
n
n
u
a
l

M
a
x

F
l
o
w

(
1
0
3

c
f
s
)
Return period example


Dataset annual maximum
discharge for 106 years on
Colorado River near Austin
x
T
= 200,000 cfs
No. of occurrences = 3
2 recurrence intervals
in 106 years
T = 106/2 = 53 years

If x
T
= 100, 000 cfs
7 recurrence intervals
T = 106/7 = 15.2 yrs
P( X 100,000 cfs at least once in the
next 5 years) = 1- (1-1/15.2)
5
= 0.29

Frequency curve plotted on
Gumbel probability paper