Submitted by Shivanshu sachan Sudhanshu saurabh

Submitted to Prof.(Dr.) Neerja Sharma

Accurate Institute of Management and Technology Gr. Noida

TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.Declaration 2.Acknowledgement 3. Objective of the study 4. Hypothesis 5. Secondary Data 6. Methodology for Data Collection 7. Primary Data 8. Findings of the Study 9. Data Analysis 10. Conclusion 11. Summary of findings 12. Bibliography 13. Annexure

DECLARATION We Shivanshu Sachan,Sudhanshu Saurabh, a student of PGDM of AIMT, Greater Noida hereby declare that the our project report entitled DEMAND FORCASTING OF AMUL ICE- CREAM IN INDIAN MARKET is an original work and the same has not been submitted to any other students or institute for the award of any other degree or diploma.

ACKNOWLEDEMENT
A task or project cannot be completed alone. It requires the effort of many individuals. I take this opportunity to thank all those who helped me complete this project. I am thankful to Prof(Dr). Neerja Sharma, Faculty Economics & IB, AIMT, Greater Noida for her valuable guidance and support at all time. I am thankful to all those people who provided me all the necessary information directly or indirectly throughout this project report completed at time.

Title: Demand Analysis of different flavors in an Ice-

cream Parlor Importance of the Topic:

This study is helpful in understanding the following about ice-cream industry Relationship between demand and price Relationship between demand and supply Factors affecting demand and supply Forecasting the demand for different seasons Knowing about the cross demand analysis of substitute products like soft drinks

Objective of the Study:

To identify the demand pattern of different flavors. To study the demand pattern of ice-creams in different seasons. To identify the customer tastes and preferences To study the demand pattern with respect to price of ice-creams To identify the demand pattern of

Hypothesis: The law of demand holds true in the case of icecream industry i.e. The demand of ice-cream is inversely related to the price of ice-cream, ceteris paribus.

 AMUL means "priceless" in Sanskrit In millions of homes since 1946 Turnover: Rs. 52.55 billion in 2007-08

Amul : A symbol of
High-quality products sold at reasonable prices Genesis of a vast co-operative network Triumph of indigenous technology Proven model for dairy development.

Gujarat Cooperative Milk Marketing Federation

India's largest food products marketing organization. Intends to be largest food company in India. State level apex body of milk cooperatives in Gujarat Aims to provide remunerative returns to the farmers Also serve the interest of consumers by providing quality products which are good value for money.

Members: No. of Producer Members:

No. of Village Societies: Total Milk handling capacity: Milk collection (Total - 2007-08): Milk collection (Daily Average 2007-08): Milk Drying Capacity: Cattle feed manufacturing Capacity:

13 district cooperative milk producers' Union 2.7 million

13,141 10.21 million litres per day 2.69 billion litres 7.4 million litres 626 Mts. per day 3090 Mts per day

60000

50000

40000

30000

Series1

20000

10000

1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

BORN on 10th March, 1996 in Gujarat

1997-Mumbai 1998- Chennai 2002-Kolkata and Delhi Market share of 38% against 9%of HLL January 2007, Amul introduced SUGAR FREE & Pro Life Probiotic Wellness Ice Cream, which was a first in India

Demand Forecasting Methodology

Mostly based on the empirical data Trend Growth Analysis Based on Industry Growth rate

SECONDARY DATA:
A brief about ice cream market:
The Indian ice cream market is characterized as a highly seasonal market, as in winter the sales fall sharply and in summer there is a steep increase in sales. The ice cream market witnesses a lot of action during summer as the companies in order to achieve maximum sales and compete with each other in market release hordes of promotional campaigns, advertisement and summer schemes. The total market is worth Rs. 2000 crores. The major brands include Kwality Walls, Amul and Mother Dairy.

STUDY OF VARIOUS OTHER BRANDS:

AMUL:
Amul enjoys a whopping 37% market share. During summer on an average sales increase by 30 to 35% and the offers such as combo packs and 1+1 free etc. increase during summers. Amul recently launched a range of sugar free ice creams targeting the health conscious category of consumers who are unable to indulge in delightful ice creams. The sales turnover for the year 2007-08 was Rs. 52554 million (1325 USD).

MOTHER DAIRY:
Mother Dairy ice creams launched in the year 1995 have shown continuous growth over the years and today has approximately 62% market share in Delhi and NCR. Recently they have introduced new flavors like Oblast, an orange based ice cream dessert and the Toffee Twist. It has a range of ice creams particularly targeting children, like the Lic Lolleez, Cool buddies.

METHODOLOGY FOR DATA COLLECTION: Data for study has been collected from Baskin and Robbins (ice-cream parlor), Dehradun.

Data obtained for the study are

o Suppliers of the product o Flavors available. o Different packagings available. o Demand for flavors in different seasons. o Price of the flavors in different seasons. o Supply of the flavors in different seasons. o Promotional Activities

PRIMARY DATA:
Findings of the Study
Demand Schedules for the flavor, Mango,Vanilla,Chocolate, Praline Cashew, and Litchi Gold Swirl; for the months October-November 2008 and May- June 2009 are Considered.

Time Frame

Product Flavors

Price (Single Scoop)

Weekly Demand

Oct 2011 1st Week

Day 1 Ice-Cream Mango Day 1 Vanilla Day 1 Chocolate Day 1 Praline Cashew Day 1 Litchi Gold Swirl

40 36 46 53 51

61 67 80 56 48

Demand of Amul Ice Cream for different age group

Old 2% Kids 33% Youths 44%

Kids Teenagers Youths Old

Teenagers 21%

Target Setting

A relatively new entrant industry,

Size of market: Rs. 2000 crores, Branded market : Rs 700 crore.

200 million litres by 2010 from 85 litres in 2007.

Parlours to increase from 600 to 10,000 by 2010.

Territory Allocation
Gut feel, Cherry picking should be discouraged but is it?
Recommended ways:
Geographic distribution. Size of potential market.

Supply Chain at Amul

Farmers 2.1m households VCs 11,000 MUs(12) 12000 employees

Out of the entire milk procured, approximately 40 per cent is sold as liquid milk and 60 per cent is converted to value added products.

GCMMF

Consumers

Retailers 500,000

Distributors 3,666

GCMMF = Gujarat Co-operative Milk Marketing Federation; MUs = Member Unions; VCs = Village Co-operatives.

How Ice Cream Flows?

Manufacturing Units

Marketing & Sales Demand

Ice cream sales low in smaller towns.

3 pronged policy: Expanding reach

Snowcap - ice cream mix Amul Preferred Outlet Administered VMS. Caf Amul for urban centres Hybrid Model -

Price advantage
Sourcing Promotion

Innovations:
Pro-biotic , Pro-biotic Sugar Free Ice cream

Shortening the Channel

Amul Parlours
2300 Amul Parlours in 2007-08 Goal of setting up 10,000 outlets by March 2010

Web based ordering

Amul Parlours: A Glimpse

APO for Tier II cities

APO for Urban Centers

APO for Rural Centers

Current Promotion Strategies for Increasing Demand

Promotion of healthy products
Probiotic for diabetic Stamina Candy for young kids (with vitamin c)

Cyber store- people can buy amul products in over 100 cities. Amul stores- targeting campuses

Current Marketing Strategies for Increasing Demand

Bombard the consumers with variety Planning to open 10 outlets everyday. Planning to launch the biggest cone available-180 ml Premium brick packs to target take home segment

CONCLUSION: We can conclude from the above findings that generally demand for ice- cream is elastic in nature i.e. a percentage change in quantity demanded is greater than the percentage change in price. SUMMARY OF FINDINGS: Price remains constant for all the flavors in one particular season. Demand for different flavors is more in summers than in winters. Elasticity for mango, Vanilla, Chocolate and Litchi Gold is elastic whereas for praline Cashew it is inelastic

BIBILOGRAPHY:

www.baskinrobbins.com www.economics.about.com https://support.sas.com www.amul.com

PLEASE TELL US ABOUT YOURSELF

Name: Age: a) less than 18 Sex: a) M b) F Profession:

b) 18-25

c) greater than 25 Contact: no-

Questionnaire of Amul Ice Cream:1. Which flavor is preferred by the customers? a) Regular flavor b) Premium Flavor c) Lite Flavor d) Cant Say 2. Who are your regular customers? a) Children b) Youngsters c) Adults d) Cant Say

3. Do the sales have seasonal demand

a) Yes b) No

4. Do the price of ice cream changes according to the season? a) Yes b) No

5. Does the demand increase in festive season? a) Yes b) No c) Cant Say 6. Which type of flavor list has high demand? a) Regular flavor b) Premium Flavor c) Lite Flavor 7. Do you promote flavors by any kind of special offers? a) Yes b) No

8. If yes, do the special offers, affect the demand pattern? a) Yes b) No c) Cant Say
9. How frequently do you replenish your stock in a month? a) Once b) Twice c) Thrice d) Cant Say 10. Does the replenishment order varies or remain constant for every order ? a) Yes b)NO

 Real Milk... Real Iceream..

Thank you!

Picture abhi baaki hai mere dost!!

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