Thai Politics, Economy, and Foreign Policy

- A Brief Introduction Dr. Kitti Prasirtsuk Thammasat University

Thai Politics

Thaksin Thailand (2001-2006)

What has happened?

Controversy around Thaksin (2005 - ?) esp. after the 2006 coup Antt-Thaksin Camp vs. Pro-Thaksin Camp

Never-ending protests
Violence

** People are divided in the protracted conflicts.

The Yellow Shirts

PAD: Peoples Alliance for Democracy

The Red Shirts: United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD)

The Yellows went beyond limit.

The Red Rampage

The Reds turned nasty: The April Riot 2009

Why it happened? Multi-dimensional conflicts

The Reds vs. The Yellows Pro-Thaksin Camp vs. Anti-Thaksin Camp Countryside vs. Cities Poor vs. middle-class North / Northeast vs. South / Bangkok Pro-efficiency vs. Pro-integrity * elite-centered / centralization social confrontation ** so far, no big shock in Thailand now real transition?
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Current Political Map

Pro-Thaksin Camp New Capitalists Grassroots People from the North and Northeast Anti-Thaksin Camp Military/Bureaucracy Old Capitalists Middle Class Southern People Most media Most scholars
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Current Trends
Cleavages among the Anti-Thaksin Camp: Democrat Party, Thai Pride Party, Military, The Yellow Shirts (PAD) Conflicts over Constitutional Revision Problems with Cambodia More people became neutral. ** But the Reds are now stepping up their anti-govt campaign after the courts verdict on partial confiscation of Thaksins assets.
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Chavalit
Prem Thaksin

Abhisit

Pallop
Sondhi

Nevin

Veera

Jatuporn Nattawut

Anuphong

Prawit
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The Thai Economy

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Basic ASEAN Indicators

Total land area Country
km2 2008 thousand 2008

Total population
1/

Annual Gross domestic Gross domestic Population product 2/ population product 1/ per capita density 1/ growth at current prices at current prices
persons per km 2008
2

percent 2008

US$ million 2008

US$ PPP 2008

3/

Brunei Darussalam 5,765 Indonesia Malaysia Singapore Thailand Cambodia Lao PDR Myanmar Viet Nam ASEAN 1,860,360 330,252 707 513,120 181,035 236,800 676,577 331,212 4,435,827

397 228,523 27,863 90,457 4,839 66,482 14,656 5,763 58,510 86,160 583,651

69 123 84 302 6,844 130 81 24 86 260 132

1.8 1.3 2.3 2.1 5.5 0.7 2.0 2.8 1.7 1.2 1.5

14,146.7 511,174.4 222,673.6 166,772.8 184,120.4 273,666.1 11,081.6 5,289.0 27,182.0 90,700.8 1,506,807.4

50,234.8 3,705.0 13,192.1 3,421.1 50,347.1 7,889.7 1,794.0 2,237.3 1,082.9 2,595.2 5,007.1
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The Philippines 300,000

Source: ASEAN Secretariat, as of 17 July 2009

More Info on Thai Economy

Thai poor 8.5% (5.4 million) Tourists 1.6 million in 2009 Export-dependent rate 70%

GDP Breakdown

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Export Breakdowns

Hi-tech includes machinery (13%), electronics (10%), vehicle (8.7%), electrical appl.(8%)
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Good News about Thai Economy

- Global economy shows some

improvement sign.
- Thai Strength Projects: 800 billon Baht - Unemployment rate only 1.8% (400,000) - 2009: only -3% growth

- 2010: +3.5% growth estimated + 14%

export increase
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Bad News about Thai Economy

- Consumer confidence and private

investment remain low.

- Continuing political crisis

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3 Possible Scenarios
1. Slow economic recovery + escalated anti-

govt movement + coalition cleavages parliament dissolution

2. Swift economic recovery + exhausted anti-

govt movement the current coalition govt survives

3. Massive riots

another coup
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Thai Foreign Policy

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General Positions
Good neighborly policy / ASEAN Alliance with the U.S. Balanced engagement with major powers Friends with all ** Bamboo Diplomacy
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Foreign Policy during Thaksin

Less ASEAN-centered Quest for regional leadership:
- Asia Cooperation Dialogue (ACD) - Ayeyawadee - Chao Phraya - Mekong Economic Cooperation Strategy (ACMECS)

Multiple FTAs Personal relations with neighboring countries, esp. Cambodia, Myanmar
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Current Foreign Policy

ASEAN-centered More formal relations with neighbors Human rights emphasis

FTA consolidation
Connectivity

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