FUZZY LOGIC

Management Mathematics Assoc. Prof. Dr. Gl Polat TATAR

Ekin ERAY Emre GKYT

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Content
Introduction History of Aristo Logic and Fuzzy logic Stages of fuzzy modeling An Academic example Conclusion References

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 ARSTO LOGIC

FUZZY LOGIC

ITU Graduate School of Science Engineering & Technology Construction Management

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Triangle Type Fuzzy Functions

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Trapeze Type Fuzzy Functions

A(x)

a1

a2

a3

a4

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Assingment of Membership Degree

Intuition Logic Experience

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How to Create a Fuzzy Functions?

Discuss with people who know about the subject and than make an arrangement Trial and error Use the data directly and make arrangement.

ITU Graduate School of Science Engineering & Technology Construction Management

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Fuzzy Set Operations

AUB(x) = maks {A(x) , B(x)} AB(x) = min {A(x) , B(x)}

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Stages of Fuzzy Modeling

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Rule Base
AND OR A B = min (A, B) A B = maks (A, B)

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Example
The users of the heating system wants Less fuel consumption Easy to use Inexpensive More warranty period

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 There is; 5 different company (A-E) 4 different consumer needs

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1st need: FUEL

Company A: Fuel consumption is good Company B: Fuel concumption is high Company C: Fuel consumption is low Company D: Fuel consumption is normal Company E: Fuel consumption is good

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2nd need: USAGE

Company A: Usage is quite hard Company B: Usage is quite easy Company C: Usage is easy Company D: Usage is easier Company E: Usage is hard

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3th need: WARRANTY

Company A: 7 years. Company B: 8 years. Company C: 5 years. Company D: 6 years. Company E: 8 years

G 0,7 / a 0,8 / b 0,5 / c 0,6 / d 0,8 / e

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4th need: COST

(x)

Company A: 40 Company B: 50 Company C: 60 Company D: 20 Company E: 45

M M M M M

1,0

0,8

0,8
0,6 0,5 0,5 5 0,4

x
c b e a d

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 Intersections of all sets.

G 0,7 / a 0,8 / b 0,5 / c 0,6 / d 0,8 / e

We should choose the max mambership value from this set. Best heating system company is D.
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Most Common Defuzzification Process

Maximum membership method The center of gravity method Weighted average method Avarage maximum membership method.

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Mamdani Type Fuzzy Inference System

All inputs and outputs are fuzzy functions. can easily create compatible with human behavior

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 Most comman defuzzification system for this model is the center of gravity method

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Sugeno Type Fuzzy Inference System

Duductive part (THEN) of the system is a simple mathematical function of the premise part. It can be a constant or a linear function. IF x=A AND y=B THEN z=f(x,y)=px+qy+r

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ADVANTAGES Easy to compute Works well with the other techniques suitable for mathematical analysis

DISADVANTAGES Not compatible with human behavior

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A Fuzzy Logic Implementation

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Thesis
Modeling Bid Mark-up of International Construction Projects with Fuzzy Logic
Gen, A., 2012 Uluslararas naat Projelerinde Katk Paynn Bulank Mantk ile Modellenmesi, T Yap letmesi.

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Goal of the Thesis

The goal of the survey is determining importance levels of factors that affects amount of bid mark-up.

The other goal is to create a fuzzy logic model to estimate amount of bid mark-up in the light of the obtained datas.

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Amount of Bid Mark-up

Bid mark-up is a component of bidding price which is prepared by construction companies in bidding period.

Amount of bid mark-up. Gen, A., (2012)

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Factor Titles
61 factors which is contained with the literature survey are divided into 5 titles. 1-Factors associated with the employer 2-Factors associated with the project 3-Factors associated with the firm 4-Factors associated with the bidding period and the contract 5-Factors associated with the economical milieu and the risk
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Survey
16 firms with 39 different project participated to survey. The questionnaire which is generally answered by bidding department managers, is provided a reliable database.

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Ranking
The factors that affects amount of bid markup, ranked on an importance scale from 1 to 5 by the company representatives. 1: very low 2: low 3: medium 4: high 5: very high
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Fuzzy Logic Modeling

As complexity rises, precise statements lose meaning and meaningful statements lose precision Lotfi Zadeh

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Fuzzy Logic Modeling

Fuzzy logic modeling doesnt need any acceptation contrary to statistical and stochastic processes. This is the most important advantage of fuzzy logic modeling. In order to create this kind of model, the logical relations between input and output datas should be exposed.
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Method of Working
5 input data for the fuzzy logic model (Employer Factor, Project Factor, Firm Factor, Bidding Period and Contract Factors, Economical Milieu and Risk Factors) and an output data (Total estimated amount of bid mark-up which is estimated as a percentage of construction cost).
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Method of Working
Mamdani type of fuzzy logic modeling method is used because of easily creating and its compatibility with the human behaviour and senses. MATLAB package program was used for creation of the model.

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Method of Working

Mamdani type of fuzzy logic model. Gen, A., (2012)

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Method of Working
Fuzzification - First of all, fuzzification of input and output datas is required in order to create a fuzzy logic model. - The fuzzification comprises the process of transforming crisp values into grades of membership for linguistic terms of fuzzy sets. The membership function is used to associate a grade to each linguistic term.
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Method of Working
Forming fuzzy rule base - The second step is forming a fuzzy rule base. - The fuzzy rule base is formed by rules like IFTHAN which connects input variables to the output.

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Method of Working
Fuzzy inference process - The relations that formed in fuzzy rule base between input and output fuzzy sets are collected in this process. - The process of fuzzy inference provides to get one result from the system - The form of the output is determined by all inferences of rules that are contained.
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Method of Working
Defuzzification - Defuzzification is the final step of fuzzy logic modeling which converts fuzzy datas to precise results. - Defuzzification is the process of producing a quantifiable result in fuzzy logic, given fuzzy sets and corresponding membership degrees.

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Fuzzification
en (2009) states that personal feelings, logic and experiences are prominent references for assigning degree of membership and membership functions. Its quite helpful to overcome so many problems. Therefore, the assignments was made according to this principle. Input values assigned to membership functions and fuzzificated through expert opinions in this study.
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Fuzzification
In survey study, input datas ranked in 1-5 interval. According to this scale: value 1 is very low, value 2 is low, value 3 is medium, value 4 is high and value 5 is very high.

Membership function of input variable. Gen, A., (2012)

In model study, 5 levels are handled again for fuzzification of input datas. Input datas are fuzzificated with the same sets.
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Fuzzification
Output variable(bid mark-up) is also fuzzificated into 5 level. Triangle membership function is used at 4 set. Trapeze membership function is used at 1 set.

Membership function of output variable. Gen, A., (2012)

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Fuzzification

Very low set: Full membership (=1) for 10 value. =0 for 17.5 value.
Low set: Parameters of the set are *13.5, 18.75, 24+. Medium set: Parameters of the set are *20.5, 25.75, 31+. High set: Parameters of the set are *27.5, 32.75, 38+. Very high set: Trapeze membership function. Starts from 35 value. =1 from 40 to 50 values.

Membership function of output variable. Gen, A., (2012)

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Creating Rule Base

A systematic has developed by considering possible combinations. The rules are based on this systematic.
675 IF-THEN rule has written down for the model.

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Creating Rule Base

The distribution of the rules by output fuzzy sets:

The distribution of the rules by output fuzzy sets. Gen, A., (2012)

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Creating Rule Base

For an example, randomly selected 2 rules are shown. 1) IF Employer Factors is LOW and Project Factors is VERY LOW and Firm Factors is LOW and Bidding Period Contract Factors is VERY LOW and Economical Milieu Risk Factors is HIGH then Bid Mark-up is VERY LOW. 2) IF Employer Factors is HIGH and Project Factors is VERY HIGH and Firm Factors is VERY HIGH and Bidding Period Contract Factors is LOW and Economical Milieu Risk Factors is LOW then Bid Mark-up is HIGH.

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Fuzzy Inference Engine & Defuzzification

In the light of the given datas fuzzy inference engine provides the calculations for finding the answers of the problems. Fuzzy Inference Engine applies intersection (MIN) or union (MAX) processes for input datas according to structure of rule.

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Fuzzy Inference Engine & Defuzzification

Deffuzification is re-quantification of fuzzificated linguistic datas. The composite output fuzzy set is built by taking the union of all output fuzzy sets. Deffuzification is a kind of interpolation that requires approximate solution and smoothing a lot. The most commonly used defuzzification method for Mamdani type of fuzzy systems is center of gravity method. This method is also usable for asymmetrical membership functions.
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Fuzzy Inference Engine & Defuzzification

Overview of the model(MATLAB). Gen, A., (2012)

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Fuzzy Inference Motor & Defuzzification

Employer=2.5 Project=2.5 Firm=2.5 hale=2.5 Risk=2.5 Bid Mark-up=22.3

Fuzzy inference system. Gen, A., (2012)

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The Results of Fuzzy Logic Model

Comparing the survey with the real system. Gen, A., (2012)
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The Results of Fuzzy Logic Model

Comparing the survey with the real system. Gen, A., (2012)
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The Results of Fuzzy Logic Model

As a result of comparison of fuzzy logic model and estimated amount of bid mark-up, the mean absolute error is determined as 7.77%

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The Results of Fuzzy Logic Model

Comparison between model estimations and survey datas. Gen, A., (2012)
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The Results of Fuzzy Logic Model

Distribution graph of model estimations and survey datas. Gen, A., (2012)
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The Results of Fuzzy Logic Model

R2 value which determined between data sets, is calculated as 0,916. This result tells us that there is a strong correlation between bid mark-up values which comes from the survey and estimated bid markup values which comes from fuzzy logic model. This point should be emphasized in terms of success of the model.
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The Results of Fuzzy Logic Model

Distribution of model and survey datas on x=y line. Gen, A., (2012)

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The Results of Fuzzy Logic Model

x=y line shows R2=1 condition. In other words if the estimations of model were totally true, the blue dots would be on the line.

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Conclusion
Fuzzy logic provides an alternative way to represent linguistic and subjective attributes of the real world in computing. It is compatible with human behavior and human logic. It doesnt need a mathematical model for its applications. The software is easy and economical. Its easy to learn, flexible than other techniques.
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Conclusion
Because of the complex and uncertain charachter of construction sector, fuzzy logic is a better solution for decision-making phase.

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References
en, Z., 2009. Bulank Mantk ilkeleri ve Modelleme, 3. Bask, Su Vakf Yaynlar, stanbul, Trkiye Gen,A., 2012, Uluslararas inaat projelerinde katk paynn bulank mantk ile modellenmesi, Yksek Lisans Tezi, stanbul Teknik niversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstits, stanbul Suba, S., Beyciciolu, A., Emirolu,M., 2008, Hafif betonlarda donat aderans dayanmnn bulank mantk yntemiyle modellenmesi, Yap Eitimi Blm Teknik Eitim Fakltesi Dzce niversitesi, DZCE Sar, M., Murat, Y.., Krabal, M., Fuzzy modeling approach and applications
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Thank You.

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