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Top 10 Concept of Statistic for quick review of concepts.

Top 10 Concept of Statistic for quick review of concepts.

Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)

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- COURSE 3 ECONOMETRICS 2009 hypothesis testing.ppt

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in Statistics

(reordered slightly for review the interactive

session)

NOTE: This Power Point file is not an introduction,

but rather a checklist of topics to review

Top Ten #10

Qualitative vs. Quantitative

Qualitative

Categorical data:

success vs. failure

ethnicity

marital status

color

zip code

4 star hotel in tour guide

Qualitative

If you need an average, do not calculate the

mean

However, you can compute the mode

(average person is married, buys a blue car

made in America)

Quantitative

Two cases

Case 1: discrete

Case 2: continuous

Discrete

(1) integer values (0,1,2,)

(2) example: binomial

(3) finite number of possible values

(4) counting

(5) number of brothers

(6) number of cars arriving at gas station

Continuous

Real numbers, such as decimal values

($22.22)

Examples: Z, t

Infinite number of possible values

Measurement

Miles per gallon, distance, duration of time

Graphical Tools

Pie chart or bar chart: qualitative

Joint frequency table: qualitative (relate

marital status vs zip code)

Scatter diagram: quantitative (distance from

CSUN vs duration of time to reach CSUN)

Hypothesis Testing

Confidence Intervals

Quantitative: Mean

Qualitative: Proportion

Top Ten #9

Population vs. Sample

Population

Collection of all items (all light bulbs made at

factory)

Parameter: measure of population

(1) population mean (average number of

hours in life of all bulbs)

(2) population proportion (% of all bulbs that

are defective)

Sample

Part of population (bulbs tested by inspector)

Statistic: measure of sample = estimate of

parameter

(1) sample mean (average number of hours

in life of bulbs tested by inspector)

(2) sample proportion (% of bulbs in sample

that are defective)

Top Ten #1

Descriptive Statistics

Measures of Central Location

Mean

Median

Mode

Mean

Population mean == x/N = (5+1+6)/3 = 12/3 =

4

Algebra: x = N* = 3*4 =12

Sample mean = x-bar = x/n

Example: the number of hours spent on the

Internet: 4, 8, and 9

x-bar = (4+8+9)/3 = 7 hours

Do NOT use if the number of observations is

small or with extreme values

Ex: Do NOT use if 3 houses were sold this week,

and one was a mansion

Median

Median = middle value

Example: 5,1,6

Step 1: Sort data: 1,5,6

Step 2: Middle value = 5

When there is an even number of observation,

median is computed by averaging the two

observations in the middle.

OK even if there are extreme values

Home sales: 100K,200K,900K, so

mean =400K, but median = 200K

Mode

Mode: most frequent value

Ex: female, male, female

Mode = female

Ex: 1,1,2,3,5,8

Mode = 1

It may not be a very good measure, see the

following example

Measures of Central Location -

Example

Sample: 0, 0, 5, 7, 8, 9, 12, 14, 22, 23

Sample Mean = x-bar = x/n = 100/10 = 10

Median = (8+9)/2 = 8.5

Mode = 0

Relationship

Case 1: if probability distribution symmetric

(ex. bell-shaped, normal distribution),

Mean = Median = Mode

Case 2: if distribution positively skewed to

right (ex. incomes of employers in large firm: a

large number of relatively low-paid workers

and a small number of high-paid executives),

Mode < Median < Mean

Relationship contd

Case 3: if distribution negatively skewed to left

(ex. The time taken by students to write

exams: few students hand their exams early

and majority of students turn in their exam at

the end of exam),

Mean < Median < Mode

Dispersion Measures of

Variability

How much spread of data

How much uncertainty

Measures

Range

Variance

Standard deviation

Range

Range = Max-Min > 0

But range affected by unusual values

Ex: Santa Monica has a high of 105 degrees

and a low of 30 once a century, but range

would be 105-30 = 75

Standard Deviation (SD)

Better than range because all data used

Population SD = Square root of variance

=sigma =

SD > 0

Empirical Rule

Applies to mound or bell-shaped curves

Ex: normal distribution

68% of data within + one SD of mean

95% of data within + two SD of mean

99.7% of data within + three SD of mean

Standard Deviation =

Square Root of Variance

1

) (

2

=

n

x x

s

Sample Standard Deviation

x

6 6-8=-2 (-2)(-2)= 4

6 6-8=-2 4

7 7-8=-1 (-1)(-1)= 1

8 8-8=0 0

13 13-8=5 (5)(5)= 25

Sum=40 Sum=0 Sum = 34

Mean=40/5=8

x x

2

) ( x x

Standard Deviation

Total variation = 34

Sample variance = 34/4 = 8.5

Sample standard deviation =

square root of 8.5 = 2.9

Measures of Variability - Example

The hourly wages earned by a sample of five students

are:

$7, $5, $11, $8, and $6

Range: 11 5 = 6

Variance:

Standard deviation:

( ) ( ) ( )

30 . 5

1 5

2 . 21

1 5

4 . 7 6 ... 4 . 7 7

1

2 2 2

2

=

+ +

=

E

=

n

X X

s

30 . 2 30 . 5

2

= = = s s

Graphical Tools

Line chart: trend over time

Scatter diagram: relationship between two

variables

Bar chart: frequency for each category

Histogram: frequency for each class of

measured data (graph of frequency distr.)

Box plot: graphical display based on

quartiles, which divide data into 4 parts

Top Ten #8

Variation Creates Uncertainty

No Variation

Certainty, exact prediction

Standard deviation = 0

Variance = 0

All data exactly same

Example: all workers in minimum wage job

High Variation

Uncertainty, unpredictable

High standard deviation

Ex #1: Workers in downtown L.A. have variation

between CEOs and garment workers

Ex #2: New York temperatures in spring range

from below freezing to very hot

Comparing Standard

Deviations

Temperature Example

Beach city: small standard deviation (single

temperature reading close to mean)

High Desert city: High standard deviation (hot

days, cool nights in spring)

Standard Error of the Mean

Standard deviation of sample mean =

standard deviation/square root of n

Ex: standard deviation = 10, n =4, so standard

error of the mean = 10/2= 5

Note that 5<10, so standard error < standard

deviation.

As n increases, standard error decreases.

Sampling Distribution

Expected value of sample mean = population

mean, but an individual sample mean could be

smaller or larger than the population mean

Population mean is a constant parameter, but

sample mean is a random variable

Sampling distribution is distribution of sample

means

Example

Mean age of all students in the building is

population mean

Each classroom has a sample mean

Distribution of sample means from all

classrooms is sampling distribution

Central Limit Theorem (CLT)

If population standard deviation is known,

sampling distribution of sample means is normal

if n > 30

CLT applies even if original population is

skewed

Top Ten #5

Expected Value

Expected Value

Expected Value = E(x) = xP(x)

= x

1

P(x

1

) + x

2

P(x

2

) +

Expected value is a weighted average, also a

long-run average

Example

Find the expected age at high school

graduation if 11 were 17 years old, 80 were

18 years old, and 5 were 19 years old

Step 1: 11+80+5=96

Step 2

x P(x) x P(x)

17 11/96=.115 17(.115)=1.955

18 80/96=.833 18(.833)=14.994

19 5/96=.052 19(.052)=.988

E(x)= 17.937

Top Ten #4

Linear Regression

Linear Regression

Regression equation:

=dependent variable=predicted value

x= independent variable

b

0

=y-intercept =predicted value of y if x=0

b

1

=slope=regression coefficient

=change in y per unit change in x

x y

b b 1 0

+ =

y

Slope vs Correlation

Positive slope (b

1

>0): positive correlation

between x and y (y increase if x increase)

Negative slope (b

1

<0): negative correlation (y

decrease if x increase)

Zero slope (b

1

=0): no correlation(predicted

value for y is mean of y), no linear

relationship between x and y

Simple Linear Regression

Simple: one independent variable, one

dependent variable

Linear: graph of regression equation is

straight line

Example

y = salary (female manager, in thousands of

dollars)

x = number of children

n = number of observations

Given Data

x y

2 48

1 52

4 33

Totals

x y

2 48

1 52

4 33 n=3

Sum=7 Sum=133

Slope (b

1

) = -6.5

Method of Least Squares formulas not on

BUS 302 exam

b

1

= -6.5 given

Interpretation: If one female manager has 1

more child than another, salary is $6,500

lower; that is, salary of female managers

is expected to decrease by -6.5 (in

thousand of dollars) per child

Intercept (b

0

)

33 . 2

3

7

= = =

n

x

x

33 . 44

3

133

= = =

n

y

y

b

0

= 44.33 (-6.5)(2.33) = 59.5

If number of children is zero,

expected salary is $59,500

x y

b b 1 0

=

Regression Equation

x y 5 . 6 5 . 59 =

Forecast Salary If 3 Children

59.5 6.5(3) = 40

$40,000 = expected salary

x forecast y

b b 1 0

+ = =

y y error

=

2

) (

2

2

=

n

y y

n

SSE

Sc

Standard Error of Estimate

Standard Error of Estimate

(1)=x (2)=y (3) =

59.5-

6.5x

(4)=

(2)-(3)

2 48 46.5 1.5 2.25

1 52 53 -1 1

4 33 33.5 -.5 .25

SSE=3.5

y

2

) ( y y

9 . 1 5 . 3

2 3

5 . 3

= =

= c S

Standard Error of Estimate

Actual salary typically $1,900

away from expected salary

Coefficient of Determination

R

2 =

% of total variation in y that can be

explained by variation in x

Measure of how close the linear regression

line fits the points in a scatter diagram

R

2

= 1: max. possible value: perfect linear

relationship between y and x (straight line)

R

2

= 0: min. value: no linear relationship

Sources of Variation (V)

Total V = Explained V + Unexplained V

SS = Sum of Squares = V

Total SS = Regression SS + Error SS

SST = SSR + SSE

SSR = Explained V, SSE = Unexplained

Coefficient of Determination

R

2

=

SSR

SST

R

2

= 197 = .98

200.5

Interpretation: 98% of total variation in salary

can be explained by variation in number of

children

0 < R

2

< 1

0: No linear relationship since SSR=0

(explained variation =0)

1: Perfect relationship since SSR = SST

(unexplained variation = SSE = 0), but does

not prove cause and effect

R=Correlation Coefficient

Case 1: slope (b

1

) < 0

R < 0

R is negative square root of coefficient of

determination

2

R R =

Our Example

Slope = b

1

= -6.5

R

2

= .98

R = -.99

Case 2: Slope > 0

R is positive square root of coefficient of

determination

Ex: R

2

= .49

R = .70

R has no interpretation

R overstates relationship

Caution

Nonlinear relationship (parabola, hyperbola,

etc) can NOT be measured by R

2

In fact, you could get R

2

=0 with a nonlinear

graph on a scatter diagram

Summary: Correlation Coefficient

Case 1: If b

1

> 0, R is the positive square root

of the coefficient of determination

Ex#1: y = 4+3x, R

2

=.36: R = +.60

Case 2: If b

1

< 0, R is the negative square

root of the coefficient of determination

Ex#2: y = 80-10x, R

2

=.49: R = -.70

NOTE! Ex#2 has stronger relationship, as

measured by coefficient of determination

Extreme Values

R=+1: perfect positive correlation

R= -1: perfect negative correlation

R=0: zero correlation

MS Excel Output

Correlation Coefficient (-0.9912): Note

that you need to change the sign because

the sign of slope (b

1

) is negative (-6.5)

Coefficient of Determination

Standard Error of Estimate

Regression Coefficient

Top Ten #6

What Distribution to Use?

Use Binomial Distribution If:

Random variable (x) is number of successes in n

trials

Each trial is success or failure

Independent trials

Constant probability of success () on each trial

Sampling with replacement (in practice, people

may use binomial w/o replacement, but theory is

with replacement)

Success vs. Failure

The binomial experiment can result in only

one of two possible outcomes:

Male vs. Female

Defective vs. Non-defective

Yes or No

Pass (8 or more right answers) vs. Fail (fewer

than 8)

Buy drink (21 or over) vs. Cannot buy drink

Binomial Is Discrete

Integer values

0,1,2,n

Binomial is often skewed, but may be symmetric

Normal Distribution

Continuous, bell-shaped, symmetric

Mean=median=mode

Measurement (dollars, inches, years)

Cumulative probability under normal curve : use

Z table if you know population mean and

population standard deviation

Sample mean: use Z table if you know

population standard deviation and either normal

population or n > 30

t Distribution

Continuous, mound-shaped, symmetric

Applications similar to normal

More spread out than normal

Use t if normal population but population

standard deviation not known

Degrees of freedom = df = n-1 if estimating the

mean of one population

t approaches z as df increases

Normal or t Distribution?

Use t table if normal population but population

standard deviation () is not known

If you are given the sample standard deviation

(s), use t table, assuming normal population

Top Ten #3

Confidence Intervals: Mean and Proportion

Confidence Interval

A confidence interval is a range of values within

which the population parameter is expected

to occur.

Factors for Confidence Interval

The factors that determine the width of a

confidence interval are:

1. The sample size, n

2. The variability in the population, usually

estimated by standard deviation.

3. The desired level of confidence.

Confidence Interval: Mean

Use normal distribution (Z table if):

population standard deviation (sigma)

known and either (1) or (2):

(1) Normal population

(2) Sample size > 30

Confidence Interval: Mean

If normal table, then

n

z

n

x o

=

Normal Table

Tail = .5(1 confidence level)

NOTE! Different statistics texts have different

normal tables

This review uses the tail of the bell curve

Ex: 95% confidence: tail = .5(1-.95)= .025

Z

.025

= 1.96

Example

n=49, x=490, =2, 95% confidence

9.44 < < 10.56

56 . 0 10

49

2

96 . 1

49

490

= =

One of SOM professors wants to

estimate the mean number of hours

worked per week by students. A sample

of 49 students showed a mean of 24

hours. It is assumed that the population

standard deviation is 4 hours. What is

the population mean?

Another Example

95 percent confidence interval for the

population mean.

12 . 1 00 . 24

49

4

96 . 1 00 . 24 96 . 1

=

=

n

X

o

The confidence limits range from 22.88 to

25.12. We estimate with 95 percent

confidence that the average number of hours

worked per week by students lies between

these two values.

Another Example contd

Confidence Interval: Mean

t distribution

Use if normal population but population

standard deviation () not known

If you are given the sample standard

deviation (s), use t table, assuming normal

population

If one population, n-1 degrees of freedom

n

s

n

x

tn 1

=

t distribution

Confidence Interval:

Proportion

Use if success or failure

(ex: defective or not-defective,

satisfactory or unsatisfactory)

Normal approximation to binomial ok if

(n)() > 5 and (n)(1-) > 5, where

n = sample size

= population proportion

NOTE: NEVER use the t table if proportion!!

Confidence Interval:

Proportion

Ex: 8 defectives out of 100, so p = .08 and

n = 100, 95% confidence

n

p p

z p

) 1 (

= t

05 . 08 .

100

) 92 )(. 08 . 0 (

96 . 1 08 . =

Confidence Interval:

Proportion

A sample of 500 people who own their house

revealed that 175 planned to sell their homes

within five years. Develop a 98% confidence

interval for the proportion of people who plan to

sell their house within five years.

0497 . 35 .

500

) 65 )(. 35 (.

33 . 2 35 . =

35 . 0

500

175

= = p

Interpretation

If 95% confidence, then 95% of all confidence

intervals will include the true population parameter

NOTE! Never use the term probability when

estimating a parameter!! (ex: Do NOT say

Probability that population mean is between 23 and

32 is .95 because parameter is not a random

variable. In fact, the population mean is a fixed but

unknown quantity.)

Point vs Interval Estimate

Point estimate: statistic (single number)

Ex: sample mean, sample proportion

Each sample gives different point estimate

Interval estimate: range of values

Ex: Population mean = sample mean + error

Parameter = statistic + error

Width of Interval

Ex: sample mean =23, error = 3

Point estimate = 23

Interval estimate = 23 + 3, or (20,26)

Width of interval = 26-20 = 6

Wide interval: Point estimate unreliable

Wide Confidence Interval If

(1) small sample size(n)

(2) large standard deviation

(3) high confidence interval (ex: 99% confidence

interval wider than 95% confidence interval)

If you want narrow interval, you need a large

sample size or small standard deviation or low

confidence level.

Top Ten #7

P-value

P-value

P-value = probability of getting a sample statistic

as extreme (or more extreme) than the sample

statistic you got from your sample, given that the

null hypothesis is true

P-value Example: one tail test

H

0

: = 40

H

A

: > 40

Sample mean = 43

P-value = P(sample mean > 43, given H

0

true)

Meaning: probability of observing a sample

mean as large as 43 when the population mean

is 40

How to use it: Reject H

0

if p-value <

(significance level)

Two Cases

Suppose = .05

Case 1: suppose p-value = .02, then reject H

0

(unlikely H

0

is true; you believe population mean

> 40)

Case 2: suppose p-value = .08, then do not

reject H

0

(H

0

may be true; you have reason to

believe that the population mean may be 40)

P-value Example: two tail test

H

0

: = 70

H

A

: 70

Sample mean = 72

If two-tails, then P-value =

2 P(sample mean > 72)=2(.04)=.08

If = .05, p-value > , so do not reject H

0

Top Ten #2

Hypothesis Testing

Population mean=

Population proportion=

A statement about the value of a population

parameter

Never include sample statistic (such as, x-

bar) in hypothesis

H

0

: Null Hypothesis

H

A

or H

1

:

Alternative Hypothesis

ONE TAIL ALTERNATIVE

Right tail: >number(smog ck)

>fraction(%defectives)

Left tail: <number(weight in box of crackers)

<fraction(unpopular Presidents %

approval low)

One-Tailed Tests

A test is one-tailed when the alternate

hypothesis, H

1

or H

A

, states a direction, such as:

H

1

: The mean yearly salaries earned by full-time

employees is more than $45,000. (>$45,000)

H

1

: The average speed of cars traveling on

freeway is less than 75 miles per hour. (<75)

H

1

: Less than 20 percent of the customers pay

cash for their gasoline purchase. ( <0.2)

Two-Tail Alternative

Population mean not equal to number (too

hot or too cold)

Population proportion not equal to fraction (%

alcohol too weak or too strong)

Two-Tailed Tests

A test is two-tailed when no direction is

specified in the alternate hypothesis

H

1

: The mean amount of time spent for the

Internet is not equal to 5 hours. ( = 5).

H

1

: The mean price for a gallon of gasoline

is not equal to $2.54. ( $2.54).

Reject Null Hypothesis (H

0

) If

Absolute value of test statistic* > critical value*

Reject H

0

if |Z Value| > critical Z

Reject H

0

if | t Value| > critical t

Reject H

0

if p-value < significance level (alpha)

Note that direction of inequality is reversed!

Reject H

0

if very large difference between sample

statistic and population parameter in H

0

* Test statistic: A value, determined from sample information, used to determine

whether or not to reject the null hypothesis.

* Critical value: The dividing point between the region where the null hypothesis is

rejected and the region where it is not rejected.

Example: Smog Check

H

0

: = 80

H

A

: > 80

If test statistic =2.2 and critical value = 1.96,

reject H

0

, and conclude that the population

mean is likely > 80

If test statistic = 1.6 and critical value = 1.96,

do not reject H

0

, and reserve judgment about

H

0

Type I vs Type II Error

Alpha= = P(type I error) = Significance level =

probability that you reject true null hypothesis

Beta= = P(type II error) = probability you do not

reject a null hypothesis, given H

0

false

Ex: H

0

: Defendant innocent

= P(jury convicts innocent person)

=P(jury acquits guilty person)

Type I vs Type II Error

H

0

true H

0

false

Reject H

0

Alpha = =

P(type I error)

1 (Correct

Decision)

Do not reject H

0

1 (Correct

Decision)

Beta = =

P(type II error)

Example: Smog Check

H

0

: = 80

H

A

: > 80

If p-value = 0.01 and alpha = 0.05, reject H

0

,

and conclude that the population mean is

likely > 80

If p-value = 0.07 and alpha = 0.05, do not

reject H

0

, and reserve judgment about H

0

Test Statistic

When testing for the population mean from a

large sample and the population standard

deviation is known, the test statistic is given

by:

z

X

=

o / n

The processors of Best Mayo indicate on the

label that the bottle contains 16 ounces of

mayo. The standard deviation of the process

is 0.5 ounces. A sample of 36 bottles from last

hours production showed a mean weight of

16.12 ounces per bottle. At the .05

significance level, can we conclude that the

mean amount per bottle is greater than 16

ounces?

Example

1. State the null and the alternative hypotheses:

H

0

: = 16, H

1

: > 16

3. Identify the test statistic. Because we know the

population standard deviation, the test statistic is z.

4. State the decision rule.

Reject H

0

if |z|> 1.645 (= z

0.05

)

2. Select the level of significance. In this case,

we selected the .05 significance level.

Example contd

5. Compute the value of the test statistic

44 . 1

36 5 . 0

00 . 16 12 . 16

=

=

n

X

z

o

6. Conclusion: Do not reject the null hypothesis.

We cannot conclude the mean is greater than 16

ounces.

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