Recession
Recovery
195
190
Down 3.29%
Real Gross Domestic Product
110
100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Weak First Half Better Third Quarter Up 0.7% Strong Fourth Quarter Up 2.3% PCEI For Year Down 0.2%
-2
Going Up
Q1 Up 3.0% Q2 Up 3.9% Q3 Up 3.9% Q4 Up 3.5%
3.5
3
2 1 0
2011.1
2011.2
2011.3
2011.4
3.0 2.1
1.7
1.9
Concerns
Europe Turmoil - Housing The Cliff - Unemployment
2012.1
2012.2
2012.3
2012.4
3.2
3 2.5
3.3
2.1
2
2013.1
2013.2
2013.3
2013.4
Up 2.8%
198.2
4% Growth
190 180 170 160 168.6
Down 3.5%
161.9 150
Down 0.7%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Trade Decline
U.S. Recession Reduces Imports European/Asian Problems Reduce Exports
Aerospace And Aircraft Production Health Care And Education Construction Sector
Residential And Commercial
Possible Downdrafts
Europe and Asia
Spillover To U.S. Financial Markets Reduced Trade At Port
(Thousands)
300
290
280
270
Gain in 2010 Q4
2,300 More Jobs Up 0.9%
260
250
2008
2009
2010
2012: In Drive
Q1 Up 1.25% Q2 Up 1.8% Q3 Up 2.6% Q4 Up 2.6% 5,500 New Jobs Up 2.1%
Employment: 2013
Potholes And Curves
Heath Care Costs International Trade Taxes And Entitlements
Percent 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 2.3
Slow Forward
Q1: Up 2.3% Q2: Up 2.0% Q3: Up 1.6% Q4: Up 1.5%
1.00
0.50 0.00
280
3.3%
270
275
260 250
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Workers
400
395 387
375
350
325
1.1
1.0 0.5 0.0
1.0
First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
Outbound Commute Outside Continue In School Remain Discouraged Annual Growth Less Than 1.0%
0.5
0.50
0.4
0.2
0.00
-0.1
-0.50
First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
393 395
394
375
350
10.2
9.7
9.8
2010
2011
Unemployment: 2012
Quarterly Unemployment Rate
Descent
9.5% - Q1 9.0% - Q2 8.8% - Q3 8.2% - Q4
10.0
9.5
9.5
9.0
9.0 8.8
8.5
8.2
Unemployment: 2013
Mild Descent
9.0% - Q1 8.1% - Q2 8.0% - Q3 7.9% - Q4
Quarterly Unemployment Rate
7.0
First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter
11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4
2005 2006 2001 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Continued Caution For Hiring Reliance On Over-Time, Part-Time, And Contingent Labor
Personal Income
$30
$25 $20 $15
6
4 2 0 -2 -4 -6
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
50,000
47,500
45,000 42,500 40,000 37,500 35,000
45,852 44,121
39,735
-5
Retail Sales
Shopping And Activity
Millions Of Dollars
6,200
6,000
5,800 5,600 5,400 5,200 5,000 4,800 4,600
Annualized Percent Growth 8.1 5.6 4.9 1.8 0.1 4.9 1.8
1.3
2 0
2010
2011
6
5 4 3 2
1
0
2012.1
2012.2
2012.3
2012.4
2.4
2
2.4
2.4
1.6
2013.1
2013.2
2013.3
2013.4
Millions Of Dollars
5,879 5,752
5,569
5,496
150
Housing: 2012
A Better Pace
New Direction
Rates Down Terms Ease
9
7.3
7.2
6.0
First Quarter Up 7.3% Second Quarter Up 7.2% Third Quarter Gains 6.0% Fourth Quarter Up 2.9%
Annual Gain of 5.8%
2.9
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Housing: 2013
The Pace Quickens
Re-Energized Runners
More Income Interest Rates Low Affordable Pricing First Quarter Up 4.6% Second Quarter Up 6.9% Third Quarter Gains 8.9% Fourth Quarter Up 9.9%
10 9 8
8.9
7
6
6.9
4.6
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
200
150
100
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Two Consecutive Years Up Back To 2008 Level New Unit Absorption Issue Point Roberts, Tahelah
Multi-Family Housing
Going Down The Track
Strong 2012
Vacancy Rate 6.5% Increased Supply Pushed Rate To 7% Rent Increased To Relative High
Containerized Cargo
(1,000 of TEUs)
200
150
100
50 0
Special Thanks to
Tacoma-Pierce County Chamber
And
Its Staff
Special Thanks to
Gary Brackett For 25 Years Of Outstanding Assistance
Good Bye
Au Revoir
Yasou
Shalom Adios
So Long Ciao
Adieu
Arrivederci