Agenda
Teaching Bayesian Method in Less Than Two Hours
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
Bayesian Method/Inference Information Formats Teaching Methods Training Effectiveness Studies and Experiments Results and Conclusion
Bayesian Method/Inference
Bayes Rule in Theory
Named after Thomas Bayes, published 1763 Describing conditional probabilities (A|B) given another event (B) Update beliefs in light of new evidence Transfer prior probability P(A) into posterior probability
Bayesian Method/Inference
The Problems
Information Formats
Probability vs. Natural Frequencies
Cognitive algorithms work on information information needs representation format Mathematical probability and percentage = recent developments Input format for human minds: natural frequencies
Information Formats
Crucial Theoretical Results
1. Bayesian computations = simpler, when information represented in natural frequencies 2. Natural frequencies = corresponding to the information format encountered throughout most of our evolutionary development
Information Formats
Example Comparison Mammography Problem The probability that a woman who undergoes a mammography will have breast cancer is 1%. If a woman undergoing a mammography has breast cancer, the probability that she will test positive is 80%. If a woman undergoing a mammography does not have cancer, the probability that she will test positive is 10%.
Ten of every 1,000 women who undergo a mammography have breast cancer. Eight of every 10 women with breast cancer who undergo a mammography will test positive. Ninety-nine of every 990 women without breast cancer who undergo a mammography will test positive.
Teaching Methods
Overview
Teaching: showing people how to construct frequency representations Mechanism: tutorial, practices, feedback
Rule Training
Frequency Grid
Frequency Tree
Teaching Methods
Rule Training
Explanation how to extract numerical information by computer system Translation of base-rate information in components of Bayes formula Insert probabilities Calculation of result
Teaching Methods
Rule Training
Teaching Methods
Frequency Grid
Teaching Methods
Frequency Grid
Teaching Methods
Frequency Tree
Constructing reference class and breaking-down into four subclasses System: explanation how to obtain frequencies Inserting into corresponding nodes Calculation by dividing number of true positive by sum of all positives
Teaching Methods
Frequency Tree
Training Effectiveness
Evaluation
Explanation of program and instructions Answer format/solution as a formula Systematically varied order of problems Scoring criteria
strict
Match exact value Obscure fact that participants created sound but inexact response
liberal
Match value +/- 5% Increased possibility including non-Bayesian algorithms
Training Effectiveness
Measures
Traditional: steep decay curve Expectation now: decay not as quick with frequency training
Study 1a 62 University of Chicago students 4 groups in 3 training methods and one w/o training as control All 4 tests with 10 problems each Old and new problems High attrition rates (increasing # of participants)
Study 1b 56 Free University of Berlin students Prevent high attrition rates with later payments and bonus based on results 2 groups with the different frequency trainings Reduced number of problems No attrition
Study 2 72 University of Munich students Issue of used graphical aids in frequency conditions Longer period of time between Test 3 and 4 Use also graphical aid for rule training probability tree
High level of transfers: average performance in new problems almost as god as in old problems Increase in median number of inferences in the frequency grid condition
Study 1b
Study 2
Conclusion
Teaching Bayesian Reasoning is possible
Prove that Bayesian computations are simpler using natural frequencies Environmental change illusions Idea: teach people to represent information according to cognitive algorithms Translation in representation format = major tool for helping to attain insight High immediate effects, better transfer to other problems and long-term stability