Modelling wind speed parameters for computer generation of wind speed in Flanders

11 International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems

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A case study using small wind turbines in an urban environment

o Markov matrix contains the transition probabilities from one state (bin) to the next state (next bin)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

The object of this research is to construct a realistic time series of wind data which is to be used for sizing the energy storage requirement of a site. The time series is constructed using a first order Markov matrix. Measurements and calculations
o Using a Doppler-anemometer, following physical quantities are logged during about Quantity Physical one year at 12.3m height. Abbreviatio Unit
n

1 2 3 4 5 6 82.0 17.3 .607 .016 .016 .016 .173 16.2 66.7 16.2 .656 .087 0 0 0 0 0 0

Transition occurs in discrete steps Example shows that the chance of going to the 4th bin if the previous state was the 5th bin is 25.6% Wind tends to persist: most likely next speed equals the previous speed as seen by the high likelihood on the diagonal of the matrix
7 0 0 8 0 0 .012 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0

12.6 72.2 14.6 .524 .058 .012 .012 .016 .400 21.5 62.8 14.6 .656 .064 0 0 0 0 0

.084 1.23 25.6 57.4 14.7 .919 .056

.169 2.82 29.9 54.0 12.1 .958 .056 0 0 0 0 0 0

.289 .867 3.32 32.8 48.8 13.2 .578 .145 .446 4.91 43.3 41.1 9.38 .893 2.50 5.00 12.5 52.5 25.0 2.50 0 0 0 0 100 0

Components of the wind speed vector Length of the 2D and 3D wind speed vector Azimuth and elevation of the wind speed vector Speed of sound Sonic temperature Timestamp

U,V,W 2D, 3D , Sos Ts T

m/s m/s deg. () m/s K s

First order Markov matrix with probabilities given in % o Sequence generation of states is done by the cumulative Markov matrix together with a pseudo-random number 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 generator1of a 2uniform distribution between 0 and 1.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0.820100.993440.999510.999670.99984 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.126000.847680.993940.999180.999770.99988

o Measured wind speed variation versus the power variation during a random week. Mean constant power is about 19 W/m.

0.001730.163360.830810.992440.999010.999880.99988 0.000160.004160.219020.846620.992800.99936 0 0 0 0 1

0.000840.013090.269010.843500.990250.99944 0 0 0

0.001690.029880.329200.869220.989850.99944

0.002890.011560.044800.372830.861270.992770.99855 0 0 0.004460.053570.486610.897320.99107

Cumulative Markov matrix based on the 9 0 0 0 0 0.025000.075000.200000.725000.97500 previous matrix 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 o

Comparison between the measured and the computer generated time series of the wind speed.

o Probability Density Function of the one minute mean of the 3D vector and the Energy Density Function

Timedomain

Frequencydomain

Computer modelling of wind speed data

o Construction of a first order Markov matrix for a 15 minutes 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 mean of the 1 Bin number speed: wind

10

Wind speed [0.0048 [0.979 [1.953 bins: 10, with wind speed intervals: [7.797 [8.771 Number of selected [2.927 [3.901 [4.875 [5.849 [6.823 interval 5(m/s) 0.979] 1.953] 2.927] 3.901] 4.875] 5.849] 6.823] 7.797] 8.771] 9.745]

K.U.Leuven ESAT/Electa

M. Gay, M. Van Dessel (Lessius Mechelen) J. Driesen (KU Leuven) contact: michael.gay@esat.kuleuven.be

Conclusion While the computer generated time series predicted the same annual energy yield as the measured data, the storage requirement for flattening the power output is not correctly predicted by the Markov series. The total energy yield of this site would be 167 kWh/m. The predicted energy storage is only 50% of the real energy storage requirement. The real requirement would be 26 kWh/m of batteries. These figures depend greatly on the chosen time step between consecutive elements which is chosen 15 minutes. Smaller time steps would produce an even lager error on the prediction.

Nov.13-15 2012

WIW_12_91