Ewart Keep Deputy Director, ESRC Centre on Skills, Knowledge & Organisational Performance, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, ENGLAND E-Mail: skopeek@wbs.ac.uk
INTRODUCTION
Skill Shortages and public policy Moral Panic about VET
Two Dimensions to Skills Shortages: Employers difficulty in obtaining skills they need International comparisons of stocks of skills The importance of defining what the problem really is The changing meaning of skills The UKs threefold policy response on skills: Boost publicly-funded VET Targets Forecasting, planning and matching
Deeper tensions
The dawn of a new approach skills and what else?
Clearer definition was seen as the key to better targeted public policy interventions. Diagnose the problem accurately and then select an appropriate cure.
These definitions now operate within the UKs four national VET systems and determine how data is collected and policy responses are formulated.
Professionals
Associate Professionals Admin. & Secretarial Skilled Trades Personal Services Sales, Customer Service Operatives Elementary Occupations
51,835
81,142 84,010 63,391 74,169 116,662 57,740 107,393
1.7
4.4 2.9 3.3 6.1 3.4 3.4 3.5
37.1
38.8 23.2 62.5 51.4 32 50.3 40.3
24.3
23.6 11.1 39 23.7 12.4 27 14
All Occupations
679,072
3.1
Base: Employee-Weighted
40
19.9
ANSWER: A threefold policy response on skills: Boost publicly-funded VET Targets Forecasting, planning and matching England is the most extreme example of planning, Scotland of spending and supply.
WEAKNESSES REMAIN
Relatively low participation post-17. Reflects structure of youth labour market and labour market regulation (e.g. licence to practice). Adult literacy and numeracy (basic skills) problem are quite extensive.
Of the 8 targets set by the Confederation of British Industry in 1991 for achievement in 1997, just 2 were met. Of the 6 targets set by NACETT in 1994 for achievement in 2000, only 1 was met. Of NACETTs second set of 4 targets to be achieved in 2002, only 1 was met. Of the 5 NLTs set by the LSC for achievement in 2004, only 1 was met in full, despite the fact that the 2004 NLTs were less ambitious than those set by NACETT for achievement in 2000. No new NLTs have yet been set.
RE-ENTER THE DRAGON: THE RETURN OF MANPOWER PLANNING (BIGGER, BOLDER AND MORE POINTLESS THAN EVER)
Manpower planning was very briefly and mildly in vogue in the mid to late 1970s. Thereafter the fashion was for a training market. In 1999/2000 some members of the NSTF decided that the best way to avoid skills shortages was to establish an elaborate system that linked: Labour market forecasting (based on economic modelling) Employers views about future skill needs Funding of the VET system The Learning and Skills Council (LSC) was set up to do this. Its mission was to engage in manpower planning on a grand scale, and at a high level of detail. The aim is to match supply with demand.
Industry data is weak because: It does not take account of outsourcing Industry structures are changing rapidly Multi-nationals add complexity Occupational data is weak because: Occupations are getting fuzzy Many skills are now cross-sectoral Measures job numbers not earnings Job/occupation titles now cover a wide range of skill levels (e.g. manager)
1. Simple, linear one-off career choice, which research suggests this does not happen
2. Supply and demand can be kept in balance without a clash of interests. An appropriate number of prospective students, not too few, not too many, can be persuaded to opt for a given course in a given locality. The examples of media studies and hairdressing. A problem for the LSC, which is supposed to be: Student-centred BUT Employer-led 3. Employers want supply to match demand. They dont. They rationally want an excess of supply, it drives down wages and it gives them choice when recruiting.
DEEPER TENSIONS
In a voluntary system, how do you get employers to play their part, and how do the various players decide exactly what their part is?
It would be a mistake to treat the current demands of employers and individuals for skills as coterminous with the needs of the economy.it cannot be assumed that these (employer and individual demand) necessarily reflect the wider needs of the economy for economic growth and stability
National Skills Task Force, 1998: 3.
Whilst we accept that a greater proportion of people with full vocational qualifications may benefit the economy as a whole, this is not the main concern of individual companies.
British Chamber of Commerce 1998 Problem identified, but what to do about it?
Employers
Level 4 or Above
Degree Non-Degree
7,122
4,220 2,903
7,359
4,774 2,585
Level 3
Level 2 Level 1 No Qualifications
3.976
3,878 2,951 6,464
6,379
5,302 3,549 2,881
NB: An under-qualified individual has a highest qualification at a lower level than that currently required to get the job he/she now holds An over-qualified individual has a qualification at a higher level than that currently required to get the job he/she now holds.
Slow (now stalled), and very patchy spread of High Performance Work Organisation (HPWO), high involvement work practices, etc. Work organisation and job design is often impoverished, produces many highly routines jobs and limits the discretion, creativity and ability to utilise skill of much of the workforce.
FINAL THOUGHTS
The foregoing does not mean we can neglect our skills supply system, but it does mean that it is now pointless to pretend that supplying more skills will, of itself, solve our economic and social problems. Policy needs to embrace the supply, demand and usage of skill if it is to make further progress.