TODAY IS:
Climatology
This region is frequently traversed by storm systems. As a result temperatures can vary significantly depending upon strength of system and location within the region (lowlands generally being warmer than the highlands). These frequent storms also create long lasting cloud decks and restrictions to visibility. A mixture of rain and snow falls in the lowlands while mainly snow falls in the highlands.
TEMPERATURES
TYPICAL SKY CONDITIONS BROKEN CLOUDS LESS THAN 5000 FT VISIBILITY 2 MILES (FOG, BLOWING SNOW) 50% OF THE TIME LESS THAN 2 MILES 25% OF THE TIME GREATER THAN 2 MILES 25% OF THE TIME WINDS PREVAILING FROM SE @ 6 KNOTS STRONGEST WIND - 47 KNOTS
RECORD MONTHLY - 3.5 INCHES (MAR) 1 INCH OF SNOW PER MONTH LOWLANDS MORE SNOW HIGHER ELEV. UP TO 7 FT AVERAGE MONTHLY - 1.1 INCHES
Weather Forecast
MAR22 MAR23 MAR24 MAR25 MAR26
55/38 57/37 63/38 66/40 63/41 10%P 40%P 10%P 10%P 10%P
Sunny Chm (+) Air (+) ISR (+) AM rain (-) (-) (-) Sunny (+) (+) (+) P/Cloudy P/Cloudy (+) (+) (+) (+) (+) (+)
Weather Forecast
MAR27 MAR28 MAR29 MAR30
63/41 0%P
P/Cloudy Chm (+) Air (+) ISR (-)
60/41 10%P
Cloudy (+) (+) (-)
54/43 60%P
Showers (-) (-) (-)
59/41 60%P
Showers (-) (-) (-)
06L
12L
18L
24L
HELO ATTACK
CAS GROUND RECCE AIR ASSAULT PERSONNEL OVHD RECON CHEM SMOKE TRAFFICABILITY UAV
CEILING/VISIBILITY
CEILING/VISIBILITY/ICING
VISIBILITY CEILING/ VISIBILITY
CLOUD COVER WIND DEPENDENT WIND DEPENDENT MARGINAL IF HEAVY RAINFALL/SNOW MELT CEILING/VISIBILITY/ICING
FAVORABLE
MARGINAL
UNFAVORABLE
CRITICAL FACTS
- AH is prepositioning forces along the border with AZ and occupying attack positions (EUCOM) - Can support OSC-E attack with 4 x DIVs with supporting IFC and Air - AH has already deployed 20 x SCUDs and 8 x Shehab missiles; most probably armed with Sarin gas (EUCOM) - AH forces have deployed mobile missile launchers near the NW part of the city of SALMAS; can range all of AZ and parts of GE/TR from all firing positions in AH
- Al Hussein variant of SCUD takes only five gallons of Sarin (AH variant RFId to JTF)
- Chemical capabilities: AH is producing Sarin gas in chemical production facilities in the southern city of QAZVIN - AH forces are no longer engaged in hostilities with Iran - AH internal opposition has been neutralized; suspension of internal media; imposition of Sharia law
CRITICAL ASSUMPTIONS
- AH Forces capable of launching offensive operations into AZ NET 290001Z13MAR - AH will disperse TELs for firing and, after launch, then move/use CC&D - AH strategic targets include AZ infrastructure (with WMD)
- SAPA and AH SPF operational targets include assembly areas and command centers i.e. airfields, JTF C-2, aircraft, SPODs, basing areas, logistics convoys, oilfields, pipelines - AH will protect TELs with mutually supporting air defense coverage - AH will insert SPF into rear areas approx. 24 hours prior to conventional invasion - AH will commit TBMs and accept risk in air operations to achieve air parity - AH will threaten use of chemical munitions against JTF forces and regional countries
- SAPA will conduct SR of terrain objectives and counter-reconnaissance missions to target SOF teams locations and identify missions/objectives
- AH will attempt to seize Baku and oil fields as primary objective
LIMITATIONS
Poor ability to track TELs following dispersal; subordinate units have less capability Undeveloped HUMINT network, country-wide (Mahmudali Chehregani) COMEUCOM approves cross-border R&S
IMPLIED TASKS
Detect/ track SSM FOBs Coordinate with JTF/JIACG to establish detainee facility; BPT to temporarily detain PUCs Coordinate for interpreter support
RISK TO SOF
Air infil/exfil, PR- AH IADS (overlapping coverage of Air AAs and HLZ/DZs) Collateral damage from attacks on Qazvin chemical production facility
S S
SAPA Attacks
S
XX
AZ DEF Forces
XX
58
S S
XX
84
- 4x DIVs: 2 x up, 2 x back - ME: (Est.d) East coast towards oilfields and Baku - SE: Screens ME western flank - SAPA support with SPF
XX
88
XX
18
IFC
AH IADS Coverage
SA-18
MR: 6 km MA: 3.5 km
2S6M
MR: 10 km MA: 3.5 km
SA-15
MR: 12 km MA: 6 km
CROTALE
MR: 8 km MA: 5.5 km
SA-12
MR:75 km MA: 25 km
SA-11
MR: 35 km MA: 15 km
SA-6
MR: 25 km MA: 14 km
SA-8
MR: 15 km MA:12 km
KS-19:
MR: 12 km MA: 9.6 km
AIR
SCUD (3 x Brigades)
X
37/38/39
II II
II
Impact
AIR
20 FIXED WING SORTIES/DAY
SCUD
18 x SCUD B 18 x SCUD C 18 x SHEHAB-3
WOC: Tabriz
WOC: Rasht
WOC:
5 Hamadan
1
15 x MiG-29
11
15 x MiG-29
F-B
10
12 x MiG-31
12
12 x MiG-31
13
15 x Lightning
14
15 x Lightning
31
10 x Su-24
32
12 x Tu-22
15
15 x Zenith
19
15 x F6
16
15 x F-7M
17
15 x F-7M
18
15 x F-7M
21
20 x Su-25
22
15 x Lightning
51
10 x Su-24
System MiG-29
Total 30
*Radius-km 2450
MiG-31
Lightning Zenith F6
A = Attack F = Fighter I = Interceptor S = Strike B = Bomber R = Recon
24
45 15 15 45 20 20 12
1650
685 1650 1100 550 1250 2000 2450
6 AAMs
2 500lb bombs, 2 rockets & 2 AAMs 8 AAMs or 8 1,000lb precision bombs 2 500lb bombs & 2 AAMs 2 AAMs 8 1,000lb bombs & 2 AAMs 9 2,000 lb bombs and anti-ship 12 2,000lb bombs
*Radius = one-way of round-trip without air refueling
SSM Ranges
0
SCUD
10
15
20
25
30
50
70
100
200
300 kms
120 kms
300 kms
1300 kms
L H L L
RL
FOB
RL
H
AH TBM Threat 2 BDE 6 BN (FOB) 12 Cranes 12 Weather Vehicles 12 C 2 Vehicles 27 Launchers 50 Missiles
Critical Vulnerability Cranes & C2 Vehicles Time Line Hide Launch - Hide = 1 Hour FOBs in place = 24/48 Hours Reload 1-2 Hours FOB = C2 HQ RL = Reload H = Hide L = Launch
TARGET DEVELOPMENT
Chemical production site complex in the city of QAZVIN - Building plans - Security systems - Enemy ground and air strength, composition, weapons, response time - Intel on site security - human (guards, military), intrusion detection / early warning devices, obstacles, reinforcements
AH
TBM Sites and chemical production (current location in the city of SALMAS) -Location, composition, activity - HQ, resupply, transloader -AD coverage and force protection -Deception
Salmas
Insertions: - Intel supportability of ground infil - Status (feasibility / suitability) of airfields and HLZs (IADs, mines, etc.)
Chemical Plant
QAZVIN
Known nerve gas production site under Iranian control AH has capability to produce weaponized nerve gas
Situation Assessment: Qazvin DTG: 20MAR2013 SOURCE: National Intelligence NORMAL POPULATION: 200,000 Azeri, 120,000 Kurd, 10,000 Persian; 330,000 total CURRENT POPULATION: About 350,000 ROAD/RAIL CONDITIONS: Major roads and rail lines are intact. Secondary roads are in fair condition but difficult to travel in rainy season. FOOD DISTRIBUTION: No reports of shortages of Food supplies. HOUSING STATUS: Indications of over crowding in some suburban areas ELECTRICAL GRID. Has the largest electrical production capacity in Ahurastan. Main power feeds follow the trace of the highway up to Tabriz. Some brownouts observed. MAJOR BUILDINGS: Some damage from past earthquakes has not been repaired. WATER AND SANITATION: Reports of raw sewage in low lying regions in the more crowded areas of the city. MEDICAL SERVICES: No information available. EMERGENCY SERVICES: No information available. LAW ENFORCEMENT: No information available. AIRFIELD: Working condition C-17 capable
SCUD Launchers
Dissident Analysis
KDPA (AH) Leader Goal Mustava Hijri Independent Mahabad Republic (Ahurastan provinces of West AZ & Kurdestan) Iraq border Support from PUK (broke with KDP) Approx 10.5K KDPI Other affil w/ Shikak Confederacy 100 house =10-20 peshmerga SANAM Cherengalli Regime change Wants AH as semiautonomous region in Iran for econ prosperity Along AZ/AH border Russian support via Armenia Several 20-25PAX militia Several OSC-E key leaders (Influence increases w/time.. P(coup) incr) KDPI and Talysh territory claims from AH Can influence OSC-E commanders Mugan Military wing of Taylsh Ali Humbatov Separate state for Taylsh clan (in so. AZ & no. AH)
BN (3 companies) Squad-size militia in almost all villages Much local support No more SAPA support makes OSC-E eastern AA difficult Taylsh state would take territory from AZ & AH
Support PKK in Turkey TU fears greater Kurdestan Occupies SCUD region (including Salmas)
KDP/PUK/KDPI AOs
KDPI Ahurastan
1. When will AH conduct an attack into AZ? 2. Will AH utilize WMD (TBM or chem) against AZ or regional countries? 3. What are the locations of the TBM FOBs? 4. Where and how will SAPA conduct operations to restrict mobility on coalition AAs?
IRs
National
RC-135V (RJ) U2 JSTARS EP-3 UAV (GH + Pred) OGAs
QUESTIONS
BACKUP SLIDES
SAPA Military Component Front = Regiment C2 influence Column/ Region= Battalion C2 influence District= Company Platoon= Platoon
Adigozal Jamilov Insurgent Operations Front
Military Headquarters
1 x Deputy Commander 2 x Advisor/Counselor 2 x Admin Spec
Farhad Karimov
Agar Bilisovec
Staff
II
Agar Cragshilov NK Column
II
Tiem Maliko Region 1 Bardar Column
II
Mikal Paridue
II
Chechgan Polin SAPA Insurgent Camp in Azerbailan 1 Confirmed Template 3 5 additional Camps SAPA Cadre Training Center
II
Staka Ishma 1 x Commander 1 x Executive Officer Company 50+ PAX Region 3 Sadval Column
II
Ali Humbatov
Region 5 Mugan Column
SAPA Cadre
Force Protection Intel cell 1 x Leader 3-4 x Intel Spec Logistics cell 1 x Leader 3-4 x Logistics Spec Information Cell 1 x Leader 2-3 x Info Spec 1-2 x Civic Action Spec
Assessment
Comm cell
Insurgent Platoon
Training
SAPA Cadre Camps are unconfirmed & remain un-located, indicators from SIGINT and HUMINT assess that the SAPA has SAP for training its most dedicated informants, cadre and leadership inside Azerbailan -Currently intelligence suggests there is at least 2 camps in operation.
ANA is a less capable force, limited surveillance and only small unit direct action operations. The focus of the ANA is to prepare for Phase 3 operations of Maoist insurgency operations.
Logistics/ Transportation SAPA Camps EST. consist of 25-70 members Training 25 to 150 Combatants
WOC: Tabriz
WOC: Rasht
WOC:
5 Hamadan
1
15 x MiG-29
11
15 x MiG-29
F-B
10
12 x MiG-31
12
12 x MiG-31
13
15 x Lightning
14
15 x Lightning
31
10 x Su-24
32
12 x Tu-22
15
15 x Zenith
19
15 x F6
16
15 x F-7M
17
15 x F-7M
18
15 x F-7M
21
20 x Su-25
22
15 x Lightning
51
10 x Su-24
System MiG-29
Total 30
*Radius-km 2450
MiG-31
Lightning Zenith F6
A = Attack F = Fighter I = Interceptor S = Strike B = Bomber R = Recon
24
45 15 15 45 20 20 12
1650
685 1650 1100 550 1250 2000 2450
6 AAMs
2 500lb bombs, 2 rockets & 2 AAMs 8 AAMs or 8 1,000lb precision bombs 2 500lb bombs & 2 AAMs 2 AAMs 8 1,000lb bombs & 2 AAMs 9 2,000 lb bombs and anti-ship 12 2,000lb bombs
*Radius = one-way of round-trip without air refueling
IFC-W
X
ADA
X
*100 Km
X
*90 Km
5,6 36 x SA-10
24 x 2S3 24 x TYPE 83 X 8
X
21,22 *36 Km 23,
*12 Km
32 x SA-15
II *43 Km 1 2
II *80 Km
18 x FADJR-3
*12 Km
72 x ZSU-23-4
X TIER -2
X 16 40 x HIND-D
481
Strategic
II 253 3 36 x 9A52 TIER -2 1 II *43 Km 482 483 II
*35 Km
12 x FADJR-3
II X
*90 Km
X *80 Km
18 x G5 18 x TYPE 83 18 x TYPE 83 X
4
36 x WM-80 X *120 Km 2 SS-21 SCUD-B X
*300 Km
II 241 18 x G5 242
II 243
48 II
18 x TYPE 83 18 x TYPE 83
12 x FADJR-3 12 x 9P140
SPF BDE
X
SPF
II
BDE HQ SPF
II
II
SPT
Parachute
I
SPF SPF TEAM
Parachute
X 10
TEAM LEADER ASSISTANT TEAM LEADER 2 X RADIO OPERATORS 2 X WEAPONS SPECIALISTS 2 DEMOLITION SPECIALISTS 4 X RECONNAISSANCE SPECIALSTS 2 PZF 3-T600 2 SA-18
COMMANDO BDE
X
CMDO
II
CMDO
I HQ
2 SA-18
I WPNS
CMDO
18 X PZF3-T600 3 X SA-18 3 X 82mm MORTAR 6 X RPG-29
HQ
2 SA-18 6 X W-87 6 X AT-7 9 X SA-18
COMMANDO WPNS CO
I
6 X W-87 6 X Gill 9 X SA-18
AGL
AT
HQ
30 X PERSONNEL 6 X W-87
24 PERSONNEL 6 X Gill
COMMANDO COMPANY
I
18 X PZF3T600 3 X SA-18 3 X 82mm MORTAR 6 X RPG-29
HQ 6 PERSONNEL 1 SA-18
WPNS
COMMANDO PLATOON
HQ
STRENGTHS / CAPABILITIES
OBJECTIVES - Strategic: Seize AZ oil fields and control BAKU before U.S. TFPDD flow reverses departure and returns to AZ - Operational: Cross Kura and Araks River and bypass AZ units - Tactical: Supporting fires from OSC IFC; supporting air; direction of SAPA rear area activities; deny use of POE to any returning US forces COG - Strategic: SCUDS / TBMs - Operational: OSC IFC; Air - Tactical: Conventional - Maneuver forces; UW - SPF and Commando units - AH Homeland COG: IADS CULMINATING POINT: OSC-E and OSC-W denied river crossing of Araks and Kura; denied access to oil fields and to Baku
STRENGTHS
SCUDS and TBM: Coverage over entire country of AZ except for SPODs CHEM: Sarin Gas on SCUD-Bs and SHAHAB-3s Arty: Chem warhead delivery (130mm 27.5km, SCUDs) SOF: Up to 120x SPF Teams (6-12x PAX) in Rear Area w/small arms, demo (recon; DA) ADA: IADs SAPA: Recon, Intel, Targeting
150015ZMAR13
XX
77
XX
76
98
XX
XX
64
XX X AHURASTAN 821
78
831
- AH chem weapons move to Salmas - AH TBMs dispersing west of Tabriz near Salmas - Indicators: AH is moving chem warheads to LU with Shahab-3 missiles and SCUDs
811
IRAN
10