KAPITA SELEKTA PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA

Faisal Basri
29 Mei 2013

Epilog
Pascakrisis tiba-tiba pendulum bergerak kencang dari heavy state intervension ke heavy market liberalization. Dan tiba-tiba berhenti. Jadi, sebetulnya krisis bukan disebabkan oleh market failure, melainkan government failure. Sekarang market failure bertaburan di mana-mana. Tak elok mempertentangkan keduanya: state vs market. Negara dan pasar memiliki peran masing-masing. Kadang negara perlu lebih banyak hadir, kadang pasar lebih diberikan keleluasaan, bergantung pada lingkungan yang dihadapi.

Bagian I Kinerja Perekonomian : Tak Berkualitas

Indonesias post-crisis journey

Quarterly GDP growth, y-o-y, %
6.8 4.1 6.3 6.4 6.2 6.1 6.0
Source: BPS.

8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 -14 -16

-18 -20

Gus Dur: Erratic/shaky Megawati: Consolidatio n and acceleration Crisis peak

7.2

SBY: Throws away Momentum, and then made correction

GDP growth in Asean-6, China, and India (%)

Sources: ADB, Asian Development Outlook 2012 Update, October 2012.

A decade of robust growth:

trailing only China and India

Source: World Bank, June 2012

Pertumbuhan bisa Jadi lebih tinggi?

Konsumsi listrik:
Pertumbuhan konsumsi listrik 2012 tertinggi sejak krisis, 10,17 persen. (Elastisitas =1,64) Sektor manufaktur tumbuh lebih tinggi dari Bisnis (Jasa): I-3 dan I-4 tumbuh di atas 10%, Jasa (B-3) 9%. Rumahtangga tumbuh 16%:
1.300 VA = 21%,

2.200 VA = 19%
450VA = 3% 900VA = 6%

Pelanggan baru = 3,9 juta (tertinggi tahunan sepanjang sejarah)

Geliat di desa:
BTPN sudah menjadi bank besar (asset sekitar Rp 60 triliun). Laba Bank BRI melonjak Penggunaan pulsa

Still, low quality of growth, 2000-2013

Percent

10 8 6 4 2 0

Non-tradable

GDP

Tradable

* First quarter, (January-March) Source: BPS.

Pertumbuhan & struktur PDB dan pekerja

Sektor 1. Pertanian 2. Pertambangan 3. Industri manufaktur 4. Listrik, Gas, Air Bersih 5. Konstruksi 6. Perdagangan, Hotel & Rest 7. Transpor & Komunikasi 8. Keuangan 9. Jasa lainnya PDB/Total
Sources: BPS.

2009 4.0 4.5 2.2 14.3

2010 3.0 3.6 4.7 5.3

2011 3.3 1.4 6.1 4.4

2012 2012 Pangsa 4.0 1.5 5.7 6.4 14.4 11.8 23.9 0.8

2011 pekerja 35.9 1.3 13.3 0.2

7.1
1.3 15.8 5.2 6.4 4.6

7.0
8.7 13.4 5.7 6.0 6.2

6.7
9.2 10.7 6.9 6.7 6.5

7.5
8.1 10.0 7.2 5.2 6.2

10.4
13.9 6.7 7.3 10.8 100.0

5.8
21.3 4.6 2.4 15.2 100.0

Peranan industri manufaktur terus merosot

Percent of GDP

* First quarter. Source: BPS.

Struktur perusahaan manufaktur menurut ukuran:

Source: World Bank, Picking up the Pace: Reviving Growth in Indonesias Manufacturing Sector, 2012.

Defisit perdagangan produk manufaktur

US$ billion

140 120 100

Exports

Imports

Surplus (Deficit)

80
60

40
20 0 -20 -40

-60

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Badan Pusat Statistik.

Trade deficit: food products

US$ billions

Sources: Badan Pusat Statistik.

Trade deficit: oil and gas

US$ billions

*January-March Source: Badan Pusat Statistik.

Trade balance of oil and oil products

2003
Crude Oil Exports Imports (X - M) Oil Products Exports Imports (X - M) 1,548 -3,583 -2,035 1,654 -5,892 -4,238 1,932 -10,646 -8,714 2,844 -11,080 -8,236 2,879 -12,787 -9,908 3,547 -20,231 -16,684 2,262 -11,129 -8,876 3,967 -18,018 -14,051 4,777 -28,134 -23,357 4,159 -28,680 -24,521 1,065 -7,266 -6,201 5,621 -3,928 1,694 6,241 -5,831 410 8,146 -6,797 1,349 8,169 -7,853 316 9,226 -9,057 169 12,419 -10,062 2,357 7,820 -7,362 458 10,403 -8,531 1,872 13,829 -11,154 2,675 12,293 -10,803 1,490 2,399 -3,164 -765

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013*

Total
Exports Imports (X - M) 7,169 -7,510 342 7,896 -11,724 -3,828 10,078 -17,443 -7,365 11,013 -18,933 -7,920 12,105 -21,844 -9,739 15,966 -30,293 -14,327 10,082 -18,491 -8,409 14,370 -26,549 -12,179 18,606 -39,288 -20,682 16,452 -39,483 -23,031 3,464 -10,429 -6,966

* January-March. Source: BPS.

Impor 13 gol. barang utama (CIF, juta US$)

Impor migas 2012: US$42,565 atau 22.2% dari total impor
No Golongan barang
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Hasil minyak (Bahan Bakar Minyak) Mesin dan peralatan mekanik Mesin dan peralatan listrik Minyak mentah Besi dan baja Kendaraan bermotor dan bagiannya Plastik dan barang dari plastik Bahan kimia organik Barang dari besi dan baja Kapal terbang dan bagiannya Serealia Gas Sisa industri makanan

2010
18,018 20,019 15,633 8,531 6,372 5,737 4,817 5,326 3,451 3,528 2,159 863 -

2011
28,134 24,729 18,245 11,154 8,580 7,603 6,688 6,635 3,573 3,421 4,753 1,412 2,219

2012 2013*
28,680 28,415 18,902 10,803 10,140 9,753 6,991 6,883 4,889 4,495 3,714 3,082 2,798 7,266 6,487 4,682 3,164 2,572 2,152 1,796 1,752 1,299 796 884 721

* January-March. Source: BPS.

Indonesia: oil production & consumption

Indonesia importir BBM terbesar di Asia.
Thousand barrel/day

Production
Imports

Consumption

Oil production: A mixture of hydrocarbons that exists in liquid phase in natural underground reservoirs and remains liquid at atmospheric pressure after passing through surface separating facilities. Oil consumption: inland demand plus aviation and marine bunkers and refinery fuel and loss. Consumption of fuel ethanol and biodiesel is also included.

Source: United States Energy Information Administration, for oil production; and BP Statistical Review of World Energy, for oil consumption

Oil production & consumption and refinery capacity

Thousand barrel/day

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy.

Consumption of motor gasoline & kerosene

Millions barrel Millions barrel

* Estimate. Source: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources

Ongkos ekonomi tak bangun kilang

Abai menambah kapasitas kilang menyebabkan Indonesia kehilangan kesempatan untuk memperkokoh struktur industri, yang salah satu pilarnya adalah industri petrokimia. Daya saing kita secara keseluruhan bakal melemah, sehingga menyebabkan pemburukan transaksi perdagangan di neraca pembayaran. Kondisinya sudah kian parah, karena transaksi perdagangan produk-produk manufaktur sudah defisit. Lengkap sudah derita perdagangan luar negeri kita: defisit pangan, defisit energi, defisit manufaktur. Satu-satunya andalan adalah produk berbasis sumber daya alam.

Industri petrokimia terkait dengan pembuatan berbagai macam barang industri dan konsumsi
NAPHTHA CONDENSATE (HNGL)

CRUDE OIL
LPG

OLEFINS PLANT

NATURAL GAS

PYROLYSIS FUEL OIL

PROPYLENE

PROPYLENE OXIDE

BUTADIENE

ETHYLENE

PYROLYSIS GASOLINE

ETHYL BENZENE

ETHYLENE GLYCOL

AROMATIC PLAN

POLY PROPYLENE

POLYETHER POLYOLS

STYRENE

ETHYLENE DICHLORIDE

BENZENE

XYLENES

PARAXYLENE

POLYETHYLENE
CARBON BLACK VINYL CHLORIDE PURE TEREPHTHALIC ACID

UNSATURED POLYESTERS

STYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER

POLY STYRENE

POLYVINYL CHLORIDE

POLYESTER POLYMER

Tires Coumpounded Rubber Products

Packaging fibers Containers Industrial Wares Film

Surfactant Cosmetics Detergent

Shoe Soles Hoses Belting Tires

Foam Container Bottles House Wares

Bag Containers Bottles Houses Wares

Pipe Floor Covering Electrical Insulation Fabric Coating Film

Fibers Textiles Containers Bottles

Sumber : Chandra Asri

Deterioration of competitiveness: WEF

Country/ 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Economy (n=104) (n=117) (n=125) (n=133) (n=134) (n=133) (n=132) (n=142) (n=144) Switzerland 8 4 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 Singapore 7 5 5 7 5 3 3 2 2 United States 2 1 6 1 1 2 4 5 7 Hong Kong 21 14 11 12 11 11 11 11 9 Malaysia 31 25 26 21 21 24 26 21 25 China 46 48 54 34 30 29 27 26 29 Thailand 34 33 35 28 34 36 38 39 38 Brazil 57 57 66 72 64 56 58 53 48 Indonesia 69 69 50 54 55 54 44 46 50 South Africa 41 40 45 44 45 45 54 50 52 Mexico 48 59 58 52 60 60 66 58 53 India 55 45 43 48 50 49 51 56 59 Philippines 76 73 71 71 71 87 85 75 65 Russia Fed. 70 53 62 58 51 63 63 66 67 Vietnam 77 74 77 68 70 75 59 65 75 Venezuela 85 84 88 98 105 113 122 124 126 Burundi --124 130 132 133 137 140 144
Source: World Economic Forum, Global Competitiveness Report, various issues

Deterioration of competitiveness: IMD

Country/ 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Economy (n=60) (n=60) (n=53) (n=55) (n=55) (n=57) (n=58) (n=59) (n=59) Hong Kong 6 2 2 3 3 2 2 1 1 USA 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 2 Switzerland 14 8 8 6 4 4 4 5 3 Singapore 2 3 3 2 2 3 1 3 4 Malaysia 16 28 22 23 19 18 10 16 14 China 24 31 18 15 17 20 18 19 23 Thailand 29 27 29 33 27 26 26 27 30 India 34 39 27 27 29 30 31 32 35 Mexico 56 56 45 47 50 46 47 38 37 Indonesia 58 59 52 54 51 42 35 37 42 Philippines 52 49 42 45 40 43 39 41 43 Brazil 53 51 44 49 43 40 38 44 46 Russia 50 54 46 43 47 49 51 49 48 South Africa 49 46 38 50 53 48 44 52 50 Venezuela 60 60 53 55 55 57 58 59 59
Source: IMD, World Competitiveness Yearbook, various issues

Foreign merchandise trade

Billion US$
Description
Total export Non-oil and gas Oil and gas Total import Non-oil and gas Oil and gas Surplus (Deficit) Non-oil and gas Oil and gas
*January.-March ource: BPS.

Growth (yoy)
2013* 2010 2011
45.4 37.3 8.1 45.5 34.1 11.3 (-0.1) 3.2 (-3.2) 35.4 33.0 47.5 40.0 39.0 44.2 29.0 24.9 48.3 30.7 26.2 48.4

2010
157.7 129.7 28.0 135.6 108.2 27.4 22.1 21.5 0.6

2011
203.5 162.0 41.5 177.4 136.7 40.7 26.1 25.3 0.8

2012
190.0 153.1 37.0 191.7 149.1 42.6 (-1.7) 4.0 (-5.6)

2012
-6.6 -5.5 -10.9 8.0 9.0 4.6

2013*
-6.4 -3,3 -18.7 -0.6 -3.1 7.5

Poverty and unemployment

Poverty (LHS)
Percent 20 19.1
18.4 18.2

Unemployment (LHS)
16.7 17.8 16.0 16.6

GDP growth (RHS)

Percent

17.4

7.0
15.4
14.2

15
11.5

13.3

10
6.1

8.1

9.1

9.9

11.2

12.5 12.0

6.0 5.0

10.3

9.3

8.5

8.1

7.4

6.8

6.3

5.9

4.0
3.0

2001

2003

2004

2006

2008

2010

2011

Source: BPS.

2013

2000

2002

2005

2007

2009

2012

Profile of workforce by job status

Source: World Bank, presented by Shubham Chaudhuri at Kompas Economic Panel Discussion, June 21, 2012.

Pekerja dan penganggur menurut pendidikan

Agustus 2011

Sumber: BPS.

Ketimpangan pendapatan memburuk

Sources: BPS..

Income distribution (%)

Source: BPS.

Bagian II Indikator Makroekonomi Jangka Pendek

Economic temperature lower

Inflation returns 1 digit, y-o-y, % Target BI: 4.5% + 1%
18.4

14.6

Selama tiga bulan terakhir laju inflasi didominasi oleh bahan makanan. Pada Maret sumbangannya mencapai 81 persen. April sudah turun kembali.
7.0
5.9 5.6

4.6

4.5

Source: BPS.

13

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

CPI in selected Asian countries (%)

* Projection. Source: IMF, October 2012

BI rate anteng di 5,75%

(BI Rate, percent)
13.0 12.0
11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0

5.0

Source: Bank Indonesia.

Time deposit and lending rate

Time Deposit (1-month)
Percent

Lending (Investment)

45
40 35

30 25
20 15

10 5
0

* March Source: Bank Indonesia.

Indonesia banking sector performance

Indicators
Total asset (Trillion Rp) Deposits (Trillion Rp) - Demand deposits - Saving accounts - Time deposits Loans (Trillion Rp) Capital adequacy ratio (%) NPL gross, without channeling (%) Returns on assets (%) Net interest margin (%) Ops. Expenses/Ops. Icome (%) Loan to deposit ratio (%) Number of banks
Source: Bank Indonesia..

Jan-2012 Dec-2012 Mar-2013

3,599 2,771 649 882 1,240 2,160 18.4 2.4 3.7 6.1 91.8 78.8 120 4,263 3,225 767 1,077 1,381 2,708 17.4 1.9 3.1 5.5 74.1 84.0 120 4,314 3,243

2,793 18.9 2.0 3.0 5.4 86.1 120

12,500 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000

8-Apr 15-Sep 4-Feb 28-Jun 17-Nov 4-Apr 24-Aug 17-Jan 6-Jun 26-Oct 26-Mar 11-Aug Jan-07 May-28 19-Oct 9-Mar 26-Jul 14-Dec 2-May 23-Sep 7-Feb 26-Jun 13-Nov 8-Apr

12,000

11,500

11,000

10,500

10,000

Source: Bank Indonesia

Heart beat has been appreciating ...

(Rupiah per US$)

Foreign reserves
(US$ million)
120,000

100,000

80,000

60,000

Selama Ajuanri-Maret cadangan devisa tergerus sebesar US$ 8 miliar, dari US$ 112,8 miliar pada akhir Desember 2012 menjadi US$ 104,8 miliar pada akhir Maret 2013. Tapi, pada akhir April naik lagi sebesar US$2,5 miliar

40,000

20,000

Source: Bank Indonesia.

Balance of payments (US$ million)

2010
I. CURRENT ACCOUNT A. Goods, net (Trade account) 1. Exports, f.o.b. 2. Imports, f.o.b. B. Services, net C. Income, net D. Current Transfer, net
II. CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT

2011

2012 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13

-3,105 3,810 -7,979 818 -5,336 3,198 -7,646 801 -5,270 1,641 8,417

5,144

1,685 -24,183

30,627 34,783

158,074 200,788 188,146 48,353 47,538 45,549 47,056 45,467 -127,447 -166,005 179,729 -44,543 -46,720 -42,351 -46.255 -43,826 -9,324 -10,632 -10,770 -20,790 -26,676 -25,839 4,630 50 11,106 4,211 33 4,009 24,911 37 26,620 13,567 -2,075 -5,898 1,058 2,256 5 2,250 1,586 -2,893 -6,801 898 5,225 3 5,222 4,020 -2,480 -6,915 861 6,015 8 6,007 4,289 -3,316 -6,343 1,213 11,853 22 11,831 4,451 -2,313 -5,694 1,097 -1,370 1 -1,372 3,391

A. Capital Account B. Financial Account 1. Direct investment

26,571 13,534 24,873 11,528 14,430

2. Portfolio investment
3. Other investment III. NET ERRORS & OMISSIONS IV. RESERVES & RELATED ITEMS
Source: Bank Indonesia.

13,202
2,262 -1,480

3,806
-1,801 -3,395

9,196
1,248 -563 -165

2,628
-1,963 -184 1,034

3,872
-2,670 -57 2,811

2,516
-798 155 -834

182
7,198 -982 -3,225

2,907
-7,670 26 6,615

-30,285 -11,857

Structure of babance of payments

US$ billions 40
30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*

Current account
* January-March Source: Bank Indonesia.

Direct investment

Portfolio investment

Other investment

Structure of current account

US$ billions

Source: Bank Indonesia.

Budget deficit and primary balance

(IDR trillion)
Year
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Total Total Revenues Expenditure

495.2
638.0 509.6 667.1 757.6 985.7 937.4 1,042.1

Deficit (% of GDP))
14.4 (0.52) 29.1 (0.87) 49.8 (1.26)

Primary balance
50.8 49.9 30.0 84.3 5.2 41.5

707.8
981.6

4.1 (0.08)
88.6( 1.58)

848.8
995.3 1,210.6 1,335.7 1,529.7

46.8 (0.73)
84.4 (1.14)

2011
2012

1,295.0
1,481.7

8.9
-45.5

146.0 (1.77)
153.3 (1.70)

2013

1,683.0

-40.1

Primary balance: central government revenues minus central government expenditure except for interest payments on the central government debt.

Source: Ministry of Finance.

Belanja Pemerintah pusat

Penerimaan minyak Rp 178 triliun, subsidi BBM Rp 240 triliun
Triliun rupiah
Sources: Kementerian Keuangan

Minyak sudah tekor

Triliun rupiah

Alokasi subsidi pada APBN, 2009-2013

Nilai (Trill Rp)
Jenis subsidi
BBM, LPG,BBN

Persen
2013
80.94
17.20 16.23 1.45 1.52 1.25 4.82 0.00 0.00 0.00

2009
45.04

2010
57.60
15.15 18.41 2.18 1.37 0.82 14.82 0.00 0.00 0.00

2011
90.45
16.54 16.34 0.10 1.83 1.52 3.41 0.00 0.00 0.00

2012
94.58
19.12 13.96 0.06 1.93 1.11 3.71 0.00 0.00 0.00

2009
32.62

2010
42.73

2011
55.92

2012
61.18

2013
61.09

82.35 165.16 211.90 193.80

Listrik
Pangan Pupuk Benih PSO Kredit program Pajak
Bhn baku kedelai

49.55
12.99 18.33 1.60 1.34 1.07 8.17 0.00 0.00 0.00

35.88
9.41 13.27 1.16 0.97 0.77 5.92 0.00 0.00 0.00

29.89
7.86 9.55 1.13 0.71 0.42 7.69 0.00 0.00 0.00

30.62
5.60 5.53 0.03 0.62 0.51 1.15 0.00 0.00 0.00

27.31
5.52 4.03 0.02 0.56 0.32 1.07 0.00 0.00 0.00

25.52
5.42 5.12 0.46 0.48 0.39 1.52 0.00 0.00 0.00

Minyak goreng Obat generik Total

138.08 192.71 295.36 346.36 317.22 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00

Sumber: Kementerian Keuangan

General govt final consumption expenditure

(average 2005-2010, % of GDP)
General government final consumption expenditure (formerly general government consumption) includes all government current expenditures for purchases of goods and services (including compensation of employees). It also includes most expenditures on national defense and security, but excludes government military expenditures that are part of government capital formation.

Source: World Bank.

Peran pemerintah makin loyo

Source: IMF, Indonesia: selected Issues, IMF Country Report No. 12/278, September 2012.

Bagian III Tapi masih Memiliki Daya Tarik

TNCs top prospective host economies for 2012-14

Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2012, p. 22.

ATKearney FDI confidence index

Country (2010 rank, 2012 rank)

Source: http://www.atkearney.com/documents/10192/fdaa84a5-a30a-4e4e-bc36-453375d6596f

Japanese FDI: upward evaluation of Indonesia

Promising countries for overseas business operation by Japanese Manufacturing Companies over the medium term (next 3 years or so)

Rank
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th

1997 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
China USA Indonesia Thailand India Vetnam
Philippines

China Thailand USA Vietnam India

Indonesia

China Thailand India Vietnam USA Russia

Indonesia

China India Thailand Viet nam USA Russia Korea

Indonesia

China India Vietnam Thailand USA Russia Brazil Korea

Indonesia

China India Vietnam Thailand Russia USA Brazil

Indonesia

China India Vietnam Russia Thailand Brazil USA

Indonesia

China India Vietnam Thailand Russia Brazil USA

Indonesia

China India Vietnam Thailand Brazil

Indonesia Russia

China India Thailand Vietnam

Indonesia

China India
Indonesia

Thailand Vietnam Brazi; Mexico Russia Myanmar USA

Brazil Russia USA Malaysia Taiwan

Korea Taiwan Malaysia Russia

Malaysia Brazil Taiwan

Korea Taiwan Malaysia

USA Korea Malaysia

Brazil Taiwan

Korea Taiwan

Korea Taiwan

Korea Malaysia

Taiwan

Source: Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), Survey Report on Overseas Business Operations by Japanese Manufacturing Companies, various issues.

Realisasi investasi 2012 menurut sektor

PMDN
Lainnya Rp.41,6 T (45,1%) Industri Makanan Rp.11,2 T (12,1%) Industri Mineral Non Logam Rp.10,7 T (11,6%) Lainnya US$.10,4 M (42,5%)

PMA

Pertambangan US$.4,3 M (17,3%) Transportasi, Gudang dan Telekomunikasi US$.2,8 M (11,4%)

Pertambangan Rp.10,5 T (11,5%)

Transportasi, Gudang dan Telekomunikasi Rp.8,6 T (9,3%)

Tanaman Pangan dan Perkebunan Rp.9,6 T (10,4%)

Industri Alat Angkutan dan Transportasi Lainnya US$.1,8 M (7,5%)

Industri Kimia Dasar, Barang Kimia dan Farmasi Industri Logam Dasar, US$.2,8 M Barang Logam, Mesin (11,3%) dan Elektronik
US$.2,5 M (10,0%)

Source: BKPM.

FDI and porfolio investment

US$ billions

FDI Inflow (net)

Porfolio (net)

16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2008
* January-March Source: Bank Indonesia.

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013*

IDX index recovered significantly

(Jakarta composite index)
5,200 5,000 4,800 4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800
Dec-16 22-Oct 9-Apr 8-Aug 7-Sep 23-Sep 25-Sep 5-Jul 6-Jan 14-Jan 20-Jan 10-Mar 23-Mar Aug-27 18-May 24-May 21-Nov 26-Nov 31-Jan Apr-27 2-Mar 14-Jul 25-Jul 7-May 9-Nov

On May 28, 2013: year to date 19.91% year on year 32.09%

Global stock markets

As of May 22th 2013 (year to date), in $ terms
25.6 25.3 20.3 19.1 16.8 16.4 15.3 15.0 6.9 6.3 5.3

3.1 2.8 2.5 1.8

-4.0 -5.7 -7.2 -9.6 -13.4
Sources: Economist.

Japan (Nikkei 225) Pakistan (KSE) Thailand (SET) Indonesia (IDX) United States (DJIA) Argentina (MERV) Switzerland (SMI) Turkey (ISE) Malaysia (KLSE) Euro Area (FTSE Euro 100) Singapore (STI) China (SSEA) Australia (All Ord.) Hong Kong (Hang Seng) India (BSE) Korea (KOSPI) South Africa (JSE AS) Brazil (BVSP) Egypt (Case 30) Colombia (IGBC)

GDP growth by expenditure

Description Private consumption Government consumption Gross fixed capital formation Exports of goods & services Minus: Imports of goods & services Gross Domestic Product
Sources: BPS.

2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 4.9 4.6 4.7 5.3 4.9 5.2 5.7 5.4 5.2

15.7
3.3 -9.7

0.3
8.5 15.3

3.2
8.8 13.6

1.2
9.8 2.0

5.9
10.0 7.8

7.4
12.3 2.2

-3.2
10.0 -2.8

-3.3
7.3 0.5

0.4
5.9 1.6

-15.0
4.6

17.3
6.2

13.3
6.5

6.6
6.2

8.0
6.3

10.9
6.4

-0.5
6.2

6.8
6.1

-0.2
6.0

Population, GDP/capita, and structure of GDP

Country China India Indonesia Brazil USA Japan Germany UK Korea Philippines Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Singapore Brunei Population (million) 1344.1 1241.5 242.3 196.6 311.6 127.8 81.7 62.6 49.8 94.8 87.8 69.5 28.8 5.2 0.4 GDP per capita (current US$) 5445.0 1488.0 3495.0 12594.0 48112.0 45903.0 44060.0 39038.0 22424.0 2370.0 1407.0 4972.0 9977.0 46241.0 40301.0 Cp 34.4 57.2 56.8 60.3 71.6 60.4 57.4 64.3 53.1 73.7 62.7 55.6 47.5 40.6 17.2 GDP components (%) Cg I X M 13.1 48.4 31.4 27.3 11.7 36.6 24.6 29.8 9.0 32.8 26.3 24.9 20.7 19.7 11.9 12.6 17.3 14.9 14.0 17.8 20.6 19.9 15.2 16.1 19.3 18.3 50.2 45.1 22.4 14.9 32.5 34.1 15.4 29.5 56.2 54.1 9.6 21.7 31.0 36.0 6.5 35.0 87.0 91.2 13.3 26.6 76.9 72.4 13.0 23.6 91.6 75.7 10.3 22.4 209.0 182.3 17.3 13.4 81.3 29.1

Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators.

Projections of GDP growth by several agencies

No Agency

Date

2012 2013 2014

1 Govt of Indonesia 2 Bank Indonesia 3 IMF 4 World Bank 5 ADB 6 Danamon 7 Economist 8 Faisal Basri

April 2013 April 2013 April 2013 April 2013 April 2013 April 2013 May 2013 May 2013

6.5 6.2 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.3 6.2

6.5 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.4

6.7 6.8 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.0 6.7

Bagian IV Momentum Akselerasi

Penduduk Indonesia mirip Jepang th. 1950

Indonesia Jepang

5%

66%

15-49 = 55%

29%

Source: Badan Pusat Statistik and http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart?page=1&fsrc=scn/fb/wl/bl/dailychartjan10 (20101120_WOC951)

Maximizing opportunities:
Indonesias remaining demographic dividend
90.0 80.0 70.0
% of population

80.0 70.0

60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0

Working age: 15 to 64 (%)

60.0 50.0

Children: 14 and below (%)

40.0 30.0 20.0 Elderly: above 64 (%) 10.0 0.0

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Source: World Bank, Indonesia economic update: Near-term issues and looking ahead to 2012, March 2011.

Dependency ratio: children and elderly to working age (%)

Dependency ratio (%)

90.0

Government debt to GDP ratio

percent

Source: Kementerian Keuangan

Central government gross debt ratio

Sources: ADB, Asian Development Outlook 2012 Update, October 2012..

Indonesias sovereign rating by 5 agencies

Awarded Date
Jan. 18, 2012 Dec. 15, 2011 Oct. 18, 2012 Aug. 24, 2011 Apr. 23, 2012

Rating Agency
Moody's Fitch Rating and Investment Japan Credit Rating Agency Standard & Poor's
IG = Investment Grader.; -1 IG = one notch below investment grade. Sources: Bank Indonesia.

Rating
Baa3 BBBBBBBBBBB+

Outlook
Stable Positive Stable Stable Stable

Note
IG IG IG IG -1 IG

Indonesia tax ratio

Tax ratio (tax revenues/GDP), percent
14.0

13.0

12.0

11.0

10.0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1994

Sources: Ministry of Finance.

Tax ratio in selected countries, 2010

Tax revenues as % of GDP

Sources: world Bank.

Wiggle-room index

Sources: The Economiest, 27 January 2012. http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2012/01/emerging-economies.

GDP per capita when demographic bonus end

Indonesia is likely to get old before it gets rich
Real GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$)

Assuming 10% growth Assuming 6% growth

1970

1991

1982

2000

2030

2030

Source: World Bank, presented by Shubham Chaudhuri at Kompas Economic Panel Discussion, June 21, 2012.

The rising population share of middle strata

Percent of population

Class
Low

Cut-off
< $1.25

2003
21.9%

2010
14.0% 43.2%

62.2%

$1.25 - $2 $2 - $4
Middle $4 - $6 $6 - $10 $10 - $20 High > $20

40.3% 32.1%
3.9% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 37.7%

29.3% 38.5%
11.7% 5.0% 1.3% 0.2% 0.2% 56.5%

Note: Per capita expenditure per day is adjusted to the 2005 purchasing power parity terms. Source: World Bank, March 2011, based on Susenas.

Indonesian population is becoming more affluent

A large portion of the Indonesian population is entering the middle class and affluent consumer (MAC), from 47,7% in 2012 to 71.5% in 2020. Population 2012, million (%)
2.5 (1.0) 6.6 (2.7) Elite Affluent

Monthly household expenditure (IDR million)

7.5 and more 5.0 - less than 7.5

Population 2020, million (%)

6.9 (2.6) 16.5 (6.1)

23.2 (9.3)
41.6 (16.8) 44.4 (17.9)

Upper middle
Middle Emerging middle

3.0 - less than 5.0

2.0 - less than 3.0 1.5 - less than 2.0

49.3 (18.4)
68.2 (25.5) 50.5 (18.9)

65.4(26.3)
64.5 (26.0)

Aspirant
Poor

1.0 - less than 1.5

Less than 1.5

47.9 (17.9)
28.3 (10.6)

Sources: BCG, March 2013.

Looking ahead within Indonesia

To a growing middle class

Source: World Bank, June 2012

Indonesians feel more financially secure

What best describes your feelings about your personal financial situation?

2030

2030

Source: BCG (The Boston Consulting Group, Asians Next Big Opportunity: Indonesias Rising Middle-Class and Affluent Consumers, March 2013.

PwC 2011: Top-18 economies

PPP 2009 Rank PPP 2050 Rank

Source: PWC, The world in 2050. New York, 2011.

PwC 2013: Top-20 economies

Source: PWC, The world in 2050. New York, 2013.

The future of archipelago economy

Indonesia Today
Economy in the world Member of the consuming class Population in the cities producing Number of skilled workers Market opportunity 16th-largest 45 million 53% 74% GDP 55 million $0.5 trillion

Indonesia in 2030
7th largest 135 million 71% 86% GDP 113 million $1.8 trillion

Source: McKinsey, The Archiipelago Economy: Unleashing Indonesia sPotential, 2012.

The worlds largest economies

2010 1. U.S. 2. China 3. Japan 4. India 5. Germany 6. Russia 7. Brazil 8. U.K. 9. France 10. Italy GDP US$ trillion 14.12 9.98 4.33 3.92 2.91 2.20 2.16 2.16 2.12 1.75 GDP 2050 US$ trillion 1. India 85.97 2. China 80.02 3. U.S. 39.07 4. Indonesia 13.93 5. Brazil 11.58 6. Nigeria 9.51 7. Russia 7.77 8. Mexico 6.57 2030 2030 9. Japan 6.48 10. Egypt 6.02

Source: Knight Frank, The Wealth Report 2012.

Bagian V Benahi Jantung Perekonomian

Financial deepening
Indonesia has yet to optimize its domestic resources

Source: Solana (WEF) based on World Bank dan IMF

The financial development index (1)

Country
Hong Kong SAR United States Singapore Malaysia Korea China South Africa Brazil Thailand India Russian Fed Mexico Turkey Philippines Vietnam Indonesia Venezuela Nigeria

2011 rank 2010 rank (n = 60) (n = 58)

1 2 4 16 18 19 29 30 35 36 39 41 43 44 50 51 59 60 4 1 3 17 24 22 32 31 34 37 40 43 42 50 46 51 55 57

2011 score (1-7)

5.16 5.15 4.97 4.24 4.13 4.12 3.64 3.61 3.32 3.29 3.18 3.16 3.14 3.13 2.98 2.92 2.44 2.44

Change in score
+0.12 +0.03 -0.08 +0.04 +0.13 +0.08 +0.11 +0.09 -0.04 +0.05 -0.04 +0.09 -0.02 +0.17 -0.05 +0.02 -0.12 +0.03

Banking Banking Rank score

3 21 16 15 20 9 33 41 31 43 57 47 34 36 29 53 58 56 5.43 4.19 4.40 4.49 4.21 4.92 3.53 3.31 3.70 3.12 2.35 2.82 3.48 3.41 3.91 2.69 2.34 2.43

Source: World Economic Forum, The Financial Development Report 2010.

The financial development index (2)

Country
United States Singapore Japan Germany Malaysia China Korea South Africa Brazil Thailand India Russian Fed. Vietnam Philippines Indonesia Bangladesh Venezuela Nigeria

2010 rank 2009 rank (n = 57) (n = 55)

1 4 9 13 17 22 24 31 32 34 37 40 46 50 51 55 56 57 3 4 9 12 22 26 23 32 34 35 38 40 45 50 48 54 55 52

2010 score (1-7)

5.12 5.03 4.67 4.49 4.20 4.03 4.00 3.53 3.53 3.37 3.24 3.21 3.03 2.97 2.90 2.55 2.55 2.43

Private credit Bank deposits to GDP (%) to GDP (%)

211 91 95 102 96 n.a. 90 162 54 78 48 39 90 27 23 36 27 24 78 113 183 104 100 145 61 63 61 84 63 31 74 46 34 50 31 21

Source: World Economic Forum, The Financial Development Report 2010.

Domestic credit provided by banking sector

Domestic credit provided by the banking sector includes all credit to various sectors on a gross basis, with the exception of credit to the central government, which is net. The banking sector includes monetary authorities and deposit money banks, as well as other banking institutions where data are available (including institutions that do not accept transferable deposits but do incur such liabilities as time and savings deposits). Examples of other banking institutions are savings and mortgage loan institutions and building and loan associations.

Source: World Bank.

Size of local currency bonds market

207

June 2012

118 103 85 75 70 45 36 17 13

Source: Asian Development Bank.

Stock market capitalization

Source: Asian Development Bank.

Year of introduction of social insurance

Country
Belgium Netherlands France Italy Germany Ireland U.K. Denmark Norway Sweden Finland Austria Switzerland Australia New Zealand Canada U.S.A.

Industrial accident
1903 1901 1898 1898 1871 1897 1897 1898 1894 1901 1895 1887 1881 1902 1900 1930 1930

UnemployFamily Health Pension ment allowance

1894 1929 1898 1886 1883 1911 1911 1892 1909 1891 1963 1888 1911 1945 1938 1971 -1900 1913 1895 1898 1889 1908 1908 1891 1936 1913 1937 1927 1946 1909 1898 1927 1935 1920 1916 1905 1919 1927 1911 1911 1907 1906 1934 1917 1920 1924 1945 1938 1940 1935 1930 1940 1932 1936 1954 1944 1945 1952 1946 1947 1948 1921 1952 1941 1926 1944 --

Sources: Christopher Pierson, Beyond the Welfare State, 3rd edition. Cambridge: Polity Press, 2006, p.110.

Akumulasi Iuran Jamkes

Asumsi: 32 jt pekerja sektor formal; gaji Rp 1,5 juta/bulan, iuran 5%, pertumbuhan gaji 10%, pekerja 6%
Tahun Th 1 Th 2 Th 3 Th 4 Th 5 Th 6 Th 7 Th 8 Th 9 Th 10 Rp miliar/th 28.800 33.581 39.155 45.655 53.234 62.070 72.374 84.388 98.397 114.731

Akumulasi Rp miliar 28.800 62.381 101.536 147.191 200.425 262.495 334.869 419.257 517.654 632.385

Akumulasi Iuran: Memastikan ketersediaan dana Kepastian investor faskes, alkes dan medical supplies Memastikan pasien

Sumber: Hasbullah Thabrany, Dampak Ekonomi Pelaksanaan SJSN, disajikan pada Round Table Discussion GP Farmasi 27 April 2010.

Jaminan hari tua/pensiun (iuran 6%)

Tahun Th 1 Th 2 Th 3 Th 4 Th 5 Th 6 Th 7 Th 8 Th 9 Th 10 Iuran/th Rp miliar 34.560 40.297 46.986 54.786 63.880 74.485 86.849 101.266 118.076 137.677 Akumulasi Rp miliar 34.560 74.857 121.843 176.629 240.509 314.994 401.843 503.109 621.185 758.862

Jaminan hari tua/Pensiun merupakan sumber dana investasi jangka panjang yang luar biasa besar.

Sumber: Hasbullah Thabrany, Dampak Ekonomi Pelaksanaan SJSN, disajikan pada Round Table Discussion GP Farmasi 27 April 2010.

Bagian VI Kembali ke Jati Diri

Keunikan Indonesia

Negara maritim the archipelago economy

Untuk membangun Indonesia menjadi negara besar, negara kuat, negara makmur, negara damai yang merupakan National Building bagi negara Indonesia, maka negara dapat menjadi kuat jika dapat menguasai lautan. Untuk menguasai lautan kita harus menguasai armada yang seimbang. (Ir. Soekarno dalam National Maritime Convention I (NMC), 1963)

PDRB berdasarkan pulau

%, 2012

9.0 9.8

23.7

57.6

Jawa
Source: BPS.

Sumatera

Kalimantan

Lainnya

Price disparities (Rupiah)

Region
East Jawa West Kalimantan East Kalimantan South Sulawesa East Nusa Tenggara Merauke Nabire Paniai
Source: Ministry of Trade.

Rice Wheat flour Sugar Cooking oil Salt

4,250 4,400 4,500 4,400 4,200 5,000 6,000 18,000 3,606 4,000 4,000 3,500 4,500 7,000 6,000 5,800 6,500 6,500 5,800 7,000 4,150 4,500 4,500 4,500 6,300 6,670 11,000 7,000 1,600 2,450 2,000 2,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 8,000

10,000 11,000 7,500 8,000

Mana lebih murah?

Jeruk Medan, Indonesia

Jeruk Mandarin, China

Prices of oranges
Prices were measured in a supermarket in Jakarta

Jeruk MedanRp. 20,000 per kg

Jeruk China..Rp. 17,000 per kg

WHY IS THIS THE CASE?

This explains why oranges from Medan are more expensive to some extent.

Fakta lain yang membuat miris

Container Shipment cost: Padang Jakarta = US$600 Jakarta Singapore = US$185

Cement in Papua is 20 times more expensive than in Jakarta because of shipping costs
Source: R.J. Linos presentatatiom, March 2011.

Jarak ekonomi makin jauh

Source: R.J. Linos presentatatiom, March 2011.

JSS sesat, melawan kodrat negara maritim

Terima Kasih
Email: faisal.basri@gmail.com