MODELLING THE TRANSMISSION OF VECTOR BORNE DISEASES USING SVM-PSO

Sudheer Ch.

IIT Delhi

Synopsis
Introduction Problem formulation SVM PSO SVM-PSO Application to case study Results and Discussions Conclusions

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INTRODUCTION

Vector : Any agent (person or animal or microorganism) that carries and transmits a disease (Lexicographic meaning)

Mosquitoes Flies etc.

Malaria Dengue

Chickenguniy a

Vector Borne Diseas es

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Malaria: Infection
Anopheles mosquito bites infected host Mosquito drinks parasite in blood Parasite reproduces in gut of mosquito Sporozoites travel to mosquitos salivary glands Mosquito transmits disease during next blood meal.

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Last few decades there is an increase in vector borne diseases.

Researchers have attributed that one of the main reason for this is Climate change
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Malaria among all vector born diseases is specially becoming a big threat to human life and health in the country, and hence in this paper study on the malaria has been taken up.

Climate change or global warming is predicted to have unexpected effects on the vector prevalence thereby affecting malaria incidences.
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Entomological and parasitological parameters

Parameter 1. 2. 3.
Optimum Temperature for viability of eggs Anthropophilic Index Gonotrophic cycle

Value
28C 0 to 4% 78hrs-132hrs (3 days) after first blood meal Average-96hrs 40 hrs at temp 26-32C 0.4/man/night in plain 0.95/man /night in forest 0.2/man/night in dam average 0.2-0.9 4 to 8 weeks -12 to 18C 12to 28 days-25 6 to 18 days-30C 4 to 10 days- 35C (at 20 to 100% RH) >24 hours-40C With RH 60 -80% 0.81 to 0.89 P.v-0.06-0.12 P.f-0.06 7

4. 5.

Biting Behavior/ man landing rate

Longevity

6. 7.
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Daily Survival probability Entomological Inoculation Rate (EIR)

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Temperature increase and fluctuation affects the vector and parasite life cycle. This can cause reduced prevalence of the disease in some areas, while it may increase in others [3-7].

Past Climate
Mean surface temperature, 1855-2004

Temperature variation from 1961-90 average oC

Climate Research Unit, UEA, 2005

20 Earths Average 19 Surface Temp (OC) 18 17

IPCC (2001) estimate: + 1.4-5.8 oC by 2100

Central estimate: 2.5 oC increase

16
15

Most of warming since 1950 is due to human actions (IPCC, 2001)

14
13 1860 1900

Band of 1200-yr historical climatic variability

1950 2000 Year

2050

2100

Do you Know? There were 243 million malaria cases reported in 2008 (WHO 2009).

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 How to address this problem? If malarial incidences can be predicted in advance then Health dept can take various precautions . So in this study SVM-PSO is used for forecasting the malarial outbreaks.

Support

PAC theory. IIT Delhi Implies that only support vectors matter; other tr Vector examplesMachines are ignorable.

Support vector machine constructs a hyperplane or set of hyperplanes in a high- or infinitedimensional space, which can be used for classification, regression, or other tasks. Intuitively, a good separation is achieved by the hyperplane that has the largest distance to the University of Texas at Austin nearest training data point of any class (so-called functional margin), since in general the larger the margin the lower the generalization error of the classifier.

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Unique Features of SVM

SVM training always finds global minimum The computational complexity of SVMs does not depend on the dimensionality of the input space. SVMs use structural risk minimization. SVMs are less prone to overfitting

Global minima

Local minima

Parameter Estimation C, epsilion, gamma, Kernel function.- DEFECTS OF SVM

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Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO)

PSO was developed in 1995 by James Kennedy (socialpsychologist) and Russell Eberhart (electrical engineer).
It uses a number of agents (particles) that constitute a swarm moving around in the search space looking for the best solution.

Each particle is treated as a point in a N-dimensional space which adjusts its flying according to its own flying experience as well as the flying experience of other particles.

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Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO)

Each particle keeps track of its coordinates in the solution space which are associated with the best solution (fitness) that has achieved so far by that particle. This value is called personal best , pbest. Another best value that is tracked by the PSO is the best value obtained so far by any particle in the neighborhood of that particle. This value is called gbest. The basic concept of PSO lies in accelerating each particle toward its pbest and the gbest locations, with a random weighted acceleration at each time step.

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Flow Chart for computing SVM parameters using PSO

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Determining SVM parameters (Hsu etal 2009)

Coarse search Fine search

[10-5,105] [ 0,10 ] [ 0,10 ]

[ 10-1,10] [ 10-7,10-1 ] [ 0,1 ]

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Case Study
Falodi area of Jodhpur District Latitude 27-06 to 27-09 north and 72-20 to 72-23 east. Average elevation of 303 meters.
Maximum and Minimum Temperatures in area of Falodi.

Average temperature in summer falling in the range of 42.2 C (max) to 36.6 C (min).
The average temperature in the winter season is somewhere between 27.5 C (max) to 15.5 C (min).
Relative Humidity and malarial incidences .
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Comparison of SVM-PSO with other models

5000
4500 4000

Malaria Incidences

3500 3000 2500 2000

Actual Malaria Incidences SVM-PSO SVM-GA SVM

1500
1000 500 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Months

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Conclusions
SVM conducts structural minimization rather than the minimization of the errors. The PSO selects the optimal parameters for SVM to improve the forecasting accuracy. So this unique combination of SVM and PSO has made the proposed SVM-PSO model to perform better compared to the other models. The performance of SVM-PSO is out performing comparing to other models like SVM-GA and SVM Also it is seen from the results that SVM performs poorly in case the parameters are not chosen properly. Furthermore this investigation demonstrates that the proposed SVMPSO offers a valid alternative for predicting the malaria outbreaks.

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