Foro International Glaciares, Huaraz July 1th 4th, 2013

Predicting Massmovement Processes induced in Periglazial Areas Study from central Switzeland

D. Tobler, P. Mani, N. Hhlen

Content

1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

Introduction Concept Methods Results Conclusions

1. Introduction

Guttannen, Central Switzerland - Bernese Oberland

1. Introduction

1. Introduction

1. Introduction - Events

1. Introduction - Events

October 2011

H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG

October 2011

H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG

October 2011

H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG

October 2011

H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG

velocity: ~ 15 m/s

October 2011

H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG

October 2011

H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG

H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG

October 2011

H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG

October 2011

H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG

October 2011

H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG

October 2011

October 2011

H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG

October 2011

H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG

October 2011

H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG

October 2011
H.R. Keusen, Geotest AG

2. Concept Process Chain

2. Concept Process Chain

2. Concept Process Chain

Hhlen (2012)

2. Concept Process Chain

Rockfall Ritzlihorn Melting Permafrost

Precipitation

Temperature

Snow - Avalanches

Debris-Fan

Aare River

2. Concept Process Chain

3. Methods Climate
Temperatur Grimsel Hospiz JJA SON # days T > 15 C Periode T > 15C
CH2011 (2011)

19802009 9.6 3.7 5 2

2035 +1.6 +1.0 14 5

2060 +2.9 +2.0 27 6

2060 (M3) +4.2 +3.0 34 10

T [C]

+ 2.9 C (2060) + 1.7 C (2028)

Linsbauer et al. (in prep)

3. Methods Glacier Retreat

16.11.2012

2035 2013 retreat

2060 retreat

3. Methods Glacier Retreat

Szenario 2060
Paul and Linsbauer (2012)

Szenario 2060

3. Methods Permafrost
Erosion Rate
Relative Rate / Amount

Amount of Sediment

Time

Bckli (2012) Ntzli et al. (2012)

3. Methods Permafrost

3. Methods Process Models

PROCESS MODELS ROFMOD 3D

SLIDISP+ RAMMS

Tobler and Pfeifer (2011)

Debris Flow

Liener (2000) Riner (2009) Tobler et al. (2011)

Scheuner and McArdell (2007)

4. Results - Rockfall

Deposition volume [m3]

4. Results - Landslides

4. Results Debris Flow

Rotlaui Channel

4. Results Debris Flow

Spreitgraben

5. Conclusions / Outlook
- Where are the critical sections along the mountain pass road? - Rough estimation of the amount of bedload depostion possible ? - Definition of possible protection measures ?

5. Conclusions / Outlook

+ 2.0 mio m3

+ 1.5 mio m3 + 150000 m3

5. Conclusions / Outlook
Key to Success
- Profound knowledge of ongoing processes and process chains - Courage to break down complicated systems to basic steps - Knowing existing uncertainties

5. Conclusions / Outlook

Thank You