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Programme Evaluation Review Technique (PERT)

PERT (Programme Evaluation Review Technique)


Pessimistic time estimate (tp) Considering that activity facing maximum possible problems & delays Optimistic time delay (to) Considering that activity does not encounter any problem Most likely time (tm) Considering that activity faces moderate delays as normally expected Average time for the activity to be used can be calculated as: T = (tp) + 4 x (tm) + (to) 6 Standard deviation () = (tp) (to) 6 Sift Marketing Pvt Ltd 2 Variance = square of standard deviation = ()2

Normal Distribution curve

Frequency
to
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tp

tm
3

Time

Problem - 1
Activity Optimistic Most Likely time time 1-2 1-6 2-3 2-4 3-5 4-5 6-7 5-8 7-8 3 2 6 2 5 3 3 1 4 6 5 12 5 11 6 9 4 9 Pessimistic time 15 14 30 8 17 15 27 7 28 3. 1. Draw Network Diagram

2.

Find Project Duration


Calculate Standard deviation & variance

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Problem 1 . . . contd
Activity Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic time time time 1-2 1-6 2-3 2-4 3-5 4-5 6-7 5-8 7-8 3 2 6 2 5 3 3 1 4 6 5 12 5 11 6 9 4 9 15 14 30 8 17 15 27 7 28 Average time 7 6 14 5 11 7 11 4 11.33

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Problem 1 . . . contd
Activity Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic time time time 1-2 1-6 2-3 2-4 3-5 4-5 6-7 5-8 7-8 3 2 6 2 5 3 3 1 4 6 5 12 5 11 6 9 4 9 15 14 30 8 17 15 27 7 28 Average Standard time deviation 7 6 14 5 11 7 11 4 11.33 2 2 4 1 2 2 4 1 4

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Problem 1 . . . contd
Activity Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic time time time 1-2 1-6 2-3 2-4 3-5 4-5 6-7 5-8 7-8 3 2 6 2 5 3 3 1 4 6 5 12 5 11 6 9 4 9 15 14 30 8 17 15 27 7 28 Average Standard time deviation 7 6 14 5 11 7 11 4 11.33 2 2 4 1 2 2 4 1 4 Variance 4 4 16 1 4 4 16 1 16

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Problem 1 . . . contd

14 5

11 7

1-2-3-5-8 = 7 + 14 + 11 + 4 = 36 1-2-4-5-8 = 7 + 5 + 7 + 4 = 23

11.33 7

1-6-7-8 = 6 + 11 + 11.33 = 28.33

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Problem 1 . . . contd
Activity Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic time time time 1-2 1-6 2-3 2-4 3-5 4-5 6-7 5-8 7-8 3 2 6 2 5 3 3 1 4 6 5 12 5 11 6 9 4 9 15 14 30 8 17 15 27 7 28 Average Standard time deviation 7 6 14 5 11 7 11 4 11.33 2 2 4 1 2 2 4 1 4 Variance 4 4 16 1 4 4 16 1 16

Sum of variances of critical activities = 4 + 16 + 4 + 1 = 25 Standard deviation = square root of sum of variances = 5
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Problem 2 (Practice)
Activity Preceding Activity a b c

A
B C D E

A B

2
8 3 2 2

4
8 15 14 8

3
8 8 5 2

F
G H 1. 2. 3.
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C
D,E F,G

1
1 6

5
3 14

3
2 10

Draw Network Diagram Find Project Duration Calculate Standard deviation & variance
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Problem 2 (Practice) - Solution


Activity Preceding Activity A B C D A a = t-o 2 8 3 2 b = t-p 4 8 15 14 c = t-m 3 8 8 5 Average Time (T) 3 8 8.33 6 Standard Deviation 0.33 0 2 2 Variance 0.11 0 4 4

E
F G H

B
C D,E F,G

2
1 1 6

8
5 3 14

2
3 2 10

3
3 2 10

1
0.67 0.33 1.33

1
0.44 0.11 1.78

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Problem 2 (Practice) - Solution


D 2 A 3 B E 3 6 5 1-2-5-6-7 = 3+6+2+10 = 21 1-3-5-6-7 = 8+3+2+10 = 23 1-4-6-10 = 8.33+3+10 = 21.22

1
8 C 8.33

F
4 3 6

H
7 10

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Problem 2 (Practice) - Solution


Activit y A B C D E F G H Preceding Activity A B C D,E F,G a = t-o 2 8 3 2 2 1 1 6 b = t-p 4 8 15 14 8 5 3 14 c = t-m 3 8 8 5 2 3 2 10 Average Time (T) 3 8 8.33 6 3 3 2 10 Standard Deviation 0.33 0 2 2 1 0.67 0.33 1.33 Variance 0.11 0 4 4 1 0.44 0.11 1.78

Sum of variances of critical activities = 0 + 1 + 0.11 + 1.78 = 2.89 Standard deviation = square root of sum of variances = 1.70
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Normal Distribution

x-
Z =
0.5 0.5

Z
0 0.5

Z
1

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Problem - 3
Time in weeks
Activity 1-2 1-3 2-4 2-5 3-5 4-5 4-6 5-6 Pessimistic 21 27 8 3.5 10 1.7 9 5 Most likely 7.5 8 8 2 10 1 7.5 3 Optimistic 3 3 8 0.5 10 0.3 3 1

1. Draw the network diagram and identify the paths through it

2. What is the expected project completion time


3. What is the expected project completion time with a confidence of 90%

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Problem 3 . . contd
Activity 1-2 1-3 2-4 2-5 3-5 4-5 4-6 5-6 Pessimistic 21 27 8 3.5 10 1.7 9 5 Most likely 7.5 8 8 2 10 1 7.5 3 Optimistic 3 3 8 0.5 10 0.3 3 1 Average 9 10.33 8 2 10 1 7.00 3 Std Deviation 3 4 0 0.5 0 0.23 1 0.67 Variance 9 16 0 0.25 0 0.05 1 0.44

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Problem 3 . . contd
1. 2. Draw the network diagram and identify the paths through it What is the expected project completion time 1-2-4-6 = 9 + 8 + 7 = 24 2 8 9 7 2 3 10 5 4 1-2-4-5-6 = 9 + 8 + 1 + 3 = 21 1-2-5-6 = 9 + 2 + 3 = 14 6 3

1
10.33

1-3-5-6 = 10.33 + 10 + 3 = 23.33

Expected Project completion time = 24 weeks


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Problem 3 . . contd
3. What is the expected project completion time with a confidence of 90%
Activity 1-2 Pessimistic 21 Most likely 7.5 Optimistic 3 Average 9 Std Deviation 3 Variance 9

1-3
2-4 2-5

27
8 3.5

8
8 2

3
8 0.5

10.33
8 2

4
0 0.5

16
0 0.25

3-5
4-5 4-6 5-6

10
1.7 9 5

10
1 7.5 3

10
0.3 3 1

10
1 7.00 3

0
0.23 1 0.67

0
0.05 1 0.44

Variance = 9 + 0 + 1 = 10
Z = (x - ) /

Std Deviation = 3.16

= 24, = 3.16, Find Z from table and calculate x


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Problem 3 . . contd

x-
Z =
0.5 0.5

From table Z = 1.28 for P = 0.3997 Hence, 1.28 = (x - 24) / 3.16

Z
0 0.5 0.4 1

x = 28.05 weeks

With a confidence of 90% expected project completion time = 28.05 weeks

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Problem 4 (Practice)
Data: = 25 days, = 1 What is the expected project completion time with confidence of 88% x-
Z =
0.5 0.5

From table Z = 1.17 for P = 0.3790 Hence, 1.17 = (x - 25) / 1

Z
0 0.5 0.38 1

x = 26.17 days

With a confidence of 88% expected project completion time = 26.17 days


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Problem - 5
Time in weeks
Activity A Preceding activity a 1 b 3 c 5

B
C D

A A

2
3 5

4
6 6

6
15 7

E
F G

C
D B

5
6 7

7
8 9

9
10 11

E, F,G

1. Draw the network diagram and identify the paths through it 2. What is the expected project completion time 3. Find the probability of completing the project no more than 4 weeks later than expected
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Problem 5 . . contd
Time in weeks
Activity A B C D E F G H Preceding activity A A C D B E, F,G a 1 2 3 5 5 6 7 2 b 3 4 6 6 7 8 9 3 c 5 6 15 7 9 10 11 4 T 3 4 7 6 7 8 9 3 0.67 0.67 2 0.33 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.33 Variance 0.44 0.44 4 0.11 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.11

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Problem 5 . . contd
1. 2. Draw the network diagram and identify the paths through it What is the expected project completion time C 7 6 D 5 B 4 3 G 9 8 6 H 3 7 F E 7

2 A 3

1-2-4-6-7 = 3 + 7 + 7 + 3 = 20 1-2-5-6-7 = 3 + 6 + 8 + 3 = 20 1-3-6-7 = 4 + 9 + 3 = 16

Expected project completion time = 20 weeks


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Problem 5 . . contd
3. Find the probability of completing the project no more than 4 weeks later than expected
Activity
A B

Preceding activity
-

a
1 2

b
3 4

c
5 6

T
3 4

0.67 0.67

Variance
0.44 0.44

C
D E

A
A C

3
5 5

6
6 7

15
7 9

7
6 7

2
0.33 0.67

4
0.11 0.44

F
G H

D
B E, F,G

6
7 2

8
9 3

10
11 4

8
9 3

0.67
0.67 0.33

0.44
0.44 0.11

Variance 1 = 0.44+4+0.44+0.11 = 4.99 ()1 = 2.23


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Variance 2 = 0.44+0.11+0.44+0.11 = 1.11 ()2 = 1.053 ()2 = 20


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()1 = 20

Problem 5 . . contd
x - 1
Z1 =

1
Z1 = (24 20) / 2.23 Z1 = 1.785

0.5

0.5

Hence

Z1 From Table for Z = 1.78 = 0.4625


0 20 x =24

So, probability of completing the project in not more than 4 weeks later than expected duration = 0.5 + 0.4625 = 0.9625 = 96.25%
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Problem 5 . . contd
x - 2
Z2 =

2
Z2 = (24 20) / 1.053 Z2 = 3.80

0.5

0.5

Hence

Z2 From Table for Z = 3.80 = 0.4999


0 20 24

So, probability of completing the project in not more than 4 weeks later than expected duration = 0.5 + 0.4999 = 0.9999 = 99.99%
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Problem - 6
Data: Expected project duration = 36 days Standard deviation = 5 Find: a) The probability that project will take more than 41 days b) The probability that project will be completed in 31 days or less time

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Problem 6 . . contd
a) The probability that project will take more than 41 days x-
Z = Hence
0.5 0.5

Z = (41 36) / 5 Z=1

Z
0 36 41 1

From Table for Z = 1 = 0.3413

Probability that project will take more than 41 days = 0.5 0.3413 = 0.1587 = 15.87%
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Problem 6 . . contd
b) The probability that project will be completed in 31 days or less time x-
Z =

Hence
0.5 0.5

Z = (31 36) / 5 Z=-1

Z
0 31 36 1

From Table for Z = 1 = 0.3413

Probability that project will take more than 31 days = 0.5 0.3413 = 0.1587 = 15.87%
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Problem - 7
If in a PERT network the expected duration of critical path is 36 months and sum of variances of the activities on the 2 then what is the probability critical path is 25 (months) 2 that the project will be completed not earlier than 30 months and not later than 42 months

= 36 months
Variance = 25 = 5

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Problem - 7 . . contd
Probability that project will be completed not earlier than 30 months x-
Z =

Hence
0.5 0.5

Z = (30 36) / 5 Z = - 1.2

Z
0 30 36 1

From Table for Z = 1.2 = 0.3849

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Problem - 7 . . contd
Probability that project will take not more than 42 months x-
Z = Hence
0.5 0.5

Z = (42 36) / 5 Z = 1.2

Z
0 36 42 1

From Table for Z = 1.2 = 0.3849

Probability that project will take not less than 30 months and not more than 42 months = 0.3849 + 0.3849 = 0.7698 = 76.98 %
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