Ramesh Chand
National Centre for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research New Delhi 110012
Year
DEPENDENCE ON IMPORT FOR FOOD: AGGREGATE Country 1991 to1994 1995 to1998 1999 to 2002 India 0.89 2.02 3.76 Pakistan Bangladesh Sri Lanka Nepal 8.46 9.20 34.47 2.89 8.12 13.57 41.08 2.93 7.45 17.87 43.24 4.87
This can be seen from changes in Net Trade If dX>dM Improvement in self reliance If dX<dM Decline in self reliance Seen through changes in Net agriculture trade Again two situations: 1995-1998 (high global prices) 1999- 2002 (Low global prices)
AGRI. TRADE OF SAC BEFORE AND AFTER WTO Country 1991 to 1994 1995-1998 1999-2002 Million $ Before WTO Start of WTO After WTO High prices Low prices Bangladesh Export 128 139 105 Import 663 1248 1623 Net Trade -535 -1109 -1518 India Export 3085 5557 5087 Import 1336 2711 3699 Net Trade 1749 2846 1388 Nepal Export 49 48 58 Import 141 217 194 Net Trade -92 -169 -136 Pakistan Export 956 1101 1067 Import 1405 2135 1814 Net Trade -448 -1034 -747 Sri Lanka Export 528 923 969 Import 500 779 766 Net Trade 29 144 202
Self reliance in agri revealed by ratio of net trade to GDP and ratio of exports required to finance import Country Aspect 1991 to 1994 1995 to 1998 1999 to 2002 India Net trade/GDP % 2.2 2.9 1.3 Import/Export % 43.3 48.8 72.7 Bangladesh Net trade/GDP % Import/Export % Nepal Net trade/GDP % Import/Export % Net trade/GDP % Import/Export % Net trade/GDP % Import/Export % -6.3 518.0 -6.0 288.2 -4.4 146.9 1.4 94.6 -11.7 900.6 -9.9 452.8 -7.7 193.9 5.4 84.4 -12.5 1547.6 -7.1 332.7 -5.0 170.1 7.0 79.1
Pakistan
Sri Lanka
International Price Phase High Low Deteriorate Deteriorate Improve Deteriorate Deteriorate Improve Deteriorate Deteriorate Deteriorate Improve
IMPORTANT LESSONS Trade liberalisation reduced self reliance on food for all countries except Sri Lanka If SACs had not taken protective measures and allowed free trade then self reliance on food would have gone very low
Need to keep check on import if liberalisation does not improve export to pay for import
TRADE ORIENTATION OF AGRICULTURE: TRADE/GDP RATIO Country Trade 1991-1994 1995 to 1998 1999 to 2002 India Import 1.7 2.8 3.7 Export 3.9 5.7 5.2 Total trade 5.6 8.4 8.9 Bangladesh Import 7.8 13.2 12.9 Export 1.5 1.5 0.8 Total trade 9.3 14.6 13.7 Nepal Import 9.1 12.7 8.8 Export 3.2 2.8 2.9 Total trade 12.3 15.5 11.7 Pakistan Import 13.7 15.9 10.8 Export 9.3 8.2 7.1 Total trade 23.1 24.0 17.9 Sri Lanka Import 25.1 29.5 26.8 Export 26.5 34.9 30.3 Total trade 51.6 64.4 57.1
INFERENCE
o Share of export in GDP declined for all countries except India in post WTO period compared with pre WTO years
Commodity
Rice Maize Wheat Groundnut Rapeseed Coconut
Bangladesh
0.124 0.122 0.122 0.051 0.135 0.279
India
0.126 0.055 0.064 0.102 0.086 0.195
Nepal
0.129 0.148 0.064
Pakistan
0.077 0.105 0.093 0.125 0.181
0.227
0.266
10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4
10 11
10 11
In exports:
Seek better market access SSG in developed countries Some have variable tariff SPS measures
Thank You