Kondisi acak
Kondisi acak adalah satu kondisi dimana hasil atau keadaan tidak dapat diprediksi
Contoh: Status penyakit Anda memiliki penyakit Anda tidak memiliki penyakit Hasil test positif Hasil test negatif
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Definisi Probabilitas
Probabilitas adalah nilai antara 0 dan 1 yang dituliskan dalam bentuk desimal ataupun pecahan. Secara sederhana, Probability adalah bilangan antara 0 dan 1 yang menunjukkan suatu hasil yang diperoleh dari kondisi acak. Untuk satu susunan kemungkinan yang lengkap dalam kondisi acak, maka total atau jumlah probabilitas adalah harus sama dengan 1.
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Assigning Probability
How likely it is that a particular outcome will be the result of a random circumstance
The Relative Frequency Interpretation of Probability
In situations that we can imagine repeating many times, we define the probability of a specific outcome as the proportion of times it would occur over the long run -- called the relative frequency of that particular outcome.
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Di suatu ruas jalan direncanakan untuk membuat jalur khusus belok kanan. Probabilitas 5 mobil menunggu berbelok diperlukan untuk menentukan panjang garis pembagi jalan. Untuk keperluan ini dilakukan survey selama 2 bulan dan diperoleh 60 hasil pengamatan.
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5 6 7 8 .
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2 1 0 0 .
3/60
2/60 1/60 0 0 .
Probabilitas kejadian 5 mobil menunggu untuk berbelok kanan adalah 3/60 (2/60 + 1/60)
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In long run, a player should win about 1 out of 1000 times. Probability
= 0.0001 of winning.
This does not mean a player will win exactly once in every thousand plays.
This number is based on data collected over the long run. So the probability that a randomly selected passenger on a U.S. carrier will temporarily lose luggage is 1/176 or about 0.006.
The proportion of passengers who lose their luggage is 1/176 or about 0.006 (6 out of 1000). About 0.6% of passengers lose their luggage. The probability that a randomly selected passenger will lose his/her luggage is about 0.006. The probability that you will lose your luggage is about 0.006.
Last statement is not exactly correct your probability depends on other factors (how late you arrive at the airport, etc.).
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1 n
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Note: 72 + 7 = 79 of the 232 nightlight users developed some degree of myopia. So we estimate the probability to be 79/232 = 0.34. This estimate is based on a sample of 232 people with a margin of error of about 0.066 (1/232 = 0.666)
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Restrictions on personal probabilities: Must fall between 0 and 1 (or between 0 and 100%). Must be coherent.
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If there are k simple events in the sample space and they are all equally likely, then the probability of the occurrence of each one is 1/k.
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Event A = last digit is a 9 = {009,019, . . . ,999}. Since one out of ten numbers in set, P(A) = 1/10. Event B = three digits are all the same = {000, 111, 222, 333, 444, 555, 666, 777, 888, 999}. Since event B contains 10 events, P(B) = 10/1000 = 1/100.
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