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  • Demand Forecasting

    Diunggah oleh

    Manohari Rd
    149 tayangan13 halaman
    The document discusses various methods for forecasting, including survey methods like opinion surveys and customer interviews, and statistical methods like trend projection, regression, correlation, and barometric methods. It provides details on complete enumeration, sample surveys, and end-use methods as part of the survey approach. Statistical techniques covered include time series analysis, regression, correlation, and using economic indicators. Key attributes of good forecasting methods mentioned are plausibility, simplicity, economy, and availability.

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    The document discusses various methods for forecasting, including survey methods like opinion surveys and customer interviews, and statistical methods like trend projection, regression, correlation, and barometric methods. It provides details on complete enumeration, sample surveys, and end-use methods as part of the survey approach. Statistical techniques covered include time series analysis, regression, correlation, and using economic indicators. Key attributes of good forecasting methods mentioned are plausibility, simplicity, economy, and availability.

    Hak Cipta:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Unduh sebagai PPTX, PDF, TXT atau baca online dari Scribd
    Tandai sebagai konten tidak pantas
    149 tayangan13 halaman

    Demand Forecasting

    Diunggah oleh

    Manohari Rd
    The document discusses various methods for forecasting, including survey methods like opinion surveys and customer interviews, and statistical methods like trend projection, regression, correlation, and barometric methods. It provides details on complete enumeration, sample surveys, and end-use methods as part of the survey approach. Statistical techniques covered include time series analysis, regression, correlation, and using economic indicators. Key attributes of good forecasting methods mentioned are plausibility, simplicity, economy, and availability.

    Hak Cipta:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Unduh sebagai PPTX, PDF, TXT atau baca online dari Scribd
    Tandai sebagai konten tidak pantas
    dari 13

    methods of forecasting

    FORECASTING METHODS
    SURVEY METHOD Opinion Survey Consumers Interview Trend projection STATISTICAL METHOD Correlation & Barometric regression method

    Complete enumeration

    Sample survey

    End use method

    SURVEY METHOD
    Information about the desires of the consumers and the opinions by interviewing them. Short - term forecasting depends heavily on this methods.

    OPINION SURVEY METHOD


    It is also known as sales - force composite method or collective opinion method. In the firm; salesmen are the persons who are very close to customers and these sales men can know and feel the customers reaction.

    CUSTOMERS INTERVIEW METHOD


    This is done by directly interviewing the consumers. Asking them about their plans and preferences regarding the consumption of the product. Norman F. Dufty, this approach is passive, it does not expose and measure the variables under managements control. Joel Dean opines that consumers plans are fragile, capricious and expensive to collect. 3 types

    COMPLETE ENUMERATION METHOD


    An interview of all the consumers of the product under forecast is taken. Sum total of individual expected demands gives the demand forecast for the product.

    SAMPLE SURVEY METHOD


    This method is useful for sample of consumers for interview. Sampling may be random sampling. Success depends on making the correct sampling.

    END USE METHOD


    We can find out the demand for the end use of the product and obtain demand separately for different sectors such as individual industries, final consumers, export and import, etc Requires industries to furnish their production plans and input-output coefficients.

    STATISTICAL METHOD
    Use the past data as a guide for future demand. Long term forecasting makes use of this methods.

    TREND PROJECTION METHOD


    Also known as time series analysis. Past data is arranged chronologically with regular intervals of time. This type of data is called time series. Involves procedures for decomposing the original sales series (y) into components, trend (T), season (S), cycle (C), and irregular events (I) Y=T+S+C+I.

    REGRESSION AND CORRELATION METHOD

    One has to ascertain the variables which determine the variable under forecast. One independent variable simple correlation. Several independent variable multiple correlation. Regression equation of y on x : y=a+bx.

    BAROMETRIC METHOD

    Events of the present are used to predict the directions of change in future. Done by the use of economic and statistical indicators. Types : i. Leading Series ii. Coincident series iii. Lagging series

    FEATURES OF A GOOD FORECASTING METHOD

    Plausibility Simplicity Economy Availability

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