Nguyen Ly Thong Ke

1
NGUYN L THNG K KINH T

- Chng 1: Cc vn chung ca Thng
K
- Chng 2: Tng hp Thng K
- Chng 3: Cc tham s Thng K
- Chng 4: iu tra Thng K
- Chng 5: Kim nh Thng K
- Chng 6: Hi quy Tng quan
- Chng 7: Dy s thi gian
- Chng 8: Ch s
- Chng 9: Thng k hiu qu kinh t
2
NGUYN L THNG K
KINH T
* Ti liu tham kho :
- Gio trnh L thuyt thng k - Trng H
KTQD
- Gio trnh Thng k thng mi - Trng H
KTQD
- Gio trnh Thng k doanh nghip - Trng
H KTQD
3
CHNG 1
Cc vn chung ca Thng k

I. Khi nim v vai tr ca TK
II. Mt s khi nim thng dng
trong TK
III. Qu trnh nghin cu TK

4
I. Khi nim v vai tr ca TK
1. KN
- L h thng
phng php lun
v cc phng
php:
+ Thu thp thng tin
+ X l thng tin
(tng hp, phn
tch, d on).

Nghin cu
bn cht, tnh
qui lut ca
hin tng KT-
XH.

5
2 . Vai tr ca thng k
- L cng c o lng, phn nh, nhn thc
cc qu trnh, hin tng kinh t - x hi.
L cng c quan trng tr gip cho vic
ra quyt nh.
L cng c quan trng c s dng
trong nhiu lnh vc, mn hc ( y hc,
nghin cu th trng, QTKD, Marketing,
PTHKT..)
6
3. Nhim v ca TK
- o lng, phn nh cc hin tng KT -
XH cn nghin cu
- Phn tch cc hin tng KT-XH
nhn thc c bn cht v tnh quy
lut ca hin tng;
tr gip cho qu trnh ra quyt nh.
7
Thu thp
X l
Lu tr v cung cp
thng tin v xy dng cc quyt nh
qun l KT-XH
3. Nhim v ca TK
8
4. i tng nghin cu ca TK
4.1. KN: Mt lng trong mi quan h mt
thit vi mt cht ca cc hin tng qu
trnh KT_XH s ln trong iu kin
lch s c th
L
-
n
g
C
h
t
9
Mt cch khi qut, Thng k hc
nghin cu:?
- Nghin cu quy lut s lng
- Nghin cu cc hin tng KT XH
- Nghin cu hin tng s ln
- Nghin cu tt c cc vn trn
trong iu kin c th v thi gian v
khng gian.

10
(1) TK nghin cu quy lut s lng
- TK nghin cu mt lng trong mi
lin h mt thit vi mt cht;
- TK dng con s, s lng biu hin
bn cht v tnh quy lut ca hin
tng;
- Con s TK lun c ni dung kinh t c
th.
11
(2) TK nghin cu cc hin tng KT
XH
- Thng k ch nghin cu cc hin tng
KT XH.

- Thng k khng nghin cu cc hin
tng t nhin k thut m n ch
nghin cu nh hng ca cc hin
tng t nhin - k thut n hin tng
KT XH.
12
Thng k l b mn KH x hi?
KH t nhin KH x hi
HT QT
t
nhin
HT, QT
x hi
Th gii
13
(3) TK nghin cu hin tng s ln
- Hin tng s ln l tng th cc hin
tng c bit trong mi quan h hu
c vi nhau.
- TK nghin cu hin tng s ln l
ch yu nhng vn c th nghin cu
hin tng c bit
14
Qui lut s ln
KN: L mt qui lut ca ton hc
Khi xem xt cc biu hin ca s vt
hin tng ti mc y th bn cht
ca hin tng s c bc l r

HT KT-XH
Chnh lch do cc tc
ng ngu nhin
Nhn t
bn cht
Nhn t
ngu
nhin
15
(4) TK nghin cu cc vn trn trong
iu kin c th v thi gian v khng
gian
- Hin tng KT XH s ln m TK nghin
cu phi l hin tng xc nh, c th.
16
iu kin lch s c
th?
Thi gian
a im
ngha
17
4.2. Cc loi hin tng TK thng nghin
cu
Hin tng qu
trnh ti sn xut x
hi
Hin tng qu
trnh dn s
Hin tng v i
sng vt cht v tinh
thn ca ngi dn
Hin tng qu
trnh chnh tr - x
hi
18
HT, QT v dn s

- S lng? ngha?
- C cu? ngha?
* Gii tnh
* tui
* Ngh nghip
* Thu nhp
* Dn tc
19
HT, QT v dn s (Tip)
- Xu hng bin ng ca:
* Quy m dn c?
* C cu dn c?
20
Cc hin tng v qu trnh ti
sn xut m rng
?
Sn
xut
Tc
h lu
N/c
tnh
hn
hS
n
xut
Tiu
dng
Ph
n
phi
Trao i
Tch
lu
21
Cc hin tng qu trnh v i
sng vt cht v tinh thn
Thu nhp
Gio dc
Vn ho .
22
HT-QT v chnh tr x hi
23
Hin tng - qu trnh chnh tr-
x hi
T l ngi dn tham gia bu c
T l ti phm
C cu t chc ca cc c quan,
on th

24
II. Mt s khi nim thng
dng trong thng k
1 - Tng th thng k
2 - Tiu thc thng k
3 - Ch tiu thng k
25
1 - Tng th thng k
1.1. KN
L hin tng KT XH s ln bao gm cc
n v hay phn t lin quan cu thnh
nn hin tng cn c quan st, phn
tch mt lng.

Cc n v trong tng th nghin cu c
gi l n v tng th thng k hay gi tt l
n v tng th.
* V d:?
26
1.2. Phn loi tng th TK

- Nu da vo biu hin ca n v tng th
+ Tng th bc l
L tng th c ranh gii r rng, c th nhn
bit c hu ht cc n v bng trc gic.
+ Tng th tim n
L tng th c ranh gii khng r rng,
khng th nhn bit c ht cc n v
bng trc gic c, phi c phng php
nhn bit.
27
- Nu da vo tnh cht c bn ca cc n v
c lin quan ti mc ch nghin cu
+ Tng th ng cht
Gm cc n v ging nhau v cc c im
ch yu lin quan ti mc ch nghin cu
+ Tng th khng ng cht
Gm cc n v c c im ch yu khc
nhau.
cch phn loi ny ch c ngha tng i
28
+ Tng th chung:
Gm tt c cc n v thuc i tng
nghin cu.
+ Tng th b phn:
Ch gm mt phn ca tng th chung.

- Nu da vo phm vi trong tng
th
29
2 . Tiu thc thng k
2.1. Khi nim:
Tiu thc thng k l tn gi mt c
im, mt mt no ca n v tng
th c chn ra nghin cu ty
theo mc ch nghin cu.

* V d:
30
2.2. Phn loi tiu thc thng k
Tiu thc thuc tnh (phi lng ho): tiu thc c
biu hin trc tip hay gin tip khng phi
bng con s m bng cc tnh cht khc.
- Tiu thc s lng (lng ho): tiu thc c
biu hin trc tip l con s, cc con s ny
c gi l cc lng bin. C 2 loi lng bin
l lng bin ri rc v lng bin lin tc.
- Tiu thc thay phin: tiu thc ch c 2 biu
hin khng trng nhau trn mt n v tng th.

31
3. Ch tiu thng k
3.1. Khi nim
- Ch tiu thng k l nhng con s m
t, phn nh tnh hnh ca mt hin t-
ng KT XH trong iu kin thi gian
v khng gian c th.
- Mi ch tiu TK u gm cc thnh phn
+ KN (Mt cht)
+ Thi gian, khng gian
+ Mc ca ch tiu (mt lng)
+ n v tnh ca ch tiu
32
V d

Li nhun ca doanh nghip A nm
2007 l 50 t ng
+ KN (mt cht): Li nhun
+ Thi gian: nm 2007, khng gian:
doanh nghip A.
+ Mc ca ch tiu (mt lng): 50
+ n v tnh ca ch tiu: t ng
33
3.2. Phn loi ch tiu thng k
- Ch tiu khi lng: biu hin qui m, khi
lng ca hin tng.
+ V d: Lng xut khu, tng s cng
nhn
- Ch tiu cht lng: phn nh mt cht -
biu hin quan h so snh v mc ph
bin trong tng th.
+ V d: tc pht trin, nng sut lao
ng bnh qun.

34
III. Qu trnh nghin cu Thng k

Yu cu: Nm vng KN, ni dung, v cc
vn cn lu ca 7 giai on sau
35
7 giai on ca iu tra TK
Xc nh Mc tiu
nghin cu
Ni dung v
HT Ch Tiu
Tng hp/S
D on/F
Quyt nh/D
Phn tch/A
iu tra/
36
1. Xc nh mc tiu nghin
cu
Yu cu:
p ng c yu cu ca SX-KD
Chnh xc
Kp thi
C th
C tnh kh thi
m bo tnh kinh t
37
2 Xy dng HTCT thng k
2.1. Khi nim v tc dng ca HTCTTK
* KN: HTCTTK l mt tp hp nhng ch
tiu c kh nng phn nh c cc mt,
cc c trng quan trng, cc mi lin h
c bn gia cc mt ca tng th nghin
cu, gia tng th nghin cu vi cc
hin tng c lin quan.
* Tc dng: Lng ha cc mt c cu v
cc mi lin h c bn ca hin tng
nghin cu.

38
2. Xy dng HTCT thng k (Tip)
2.2. Cn c xy dng HTCT:
- Mc ch nghin cu
- Tnh cht v c im ca
i tng nghin cu
- Kh nng nhn, ti, vt lc
cho php.
39
2.3. Yu cu ca HTCT

- Nu c mi lin h gia cc b
phn, cc mt ca hin tng, gia hin
tng nghin cu vi cc hin tng c
lin quan.
- C cc ch tiu mang tnh cht chung,
cc ch tiu mang tnh cht b phn, v
cc ch tiu nhn t.
- Phi thng nht v ni dung, phng
php v phm vi tnh ton

40
3. iu tra Thng k
3.1. KN
3.2. Yu cu
3.3. Phn loi
3.4. Hnh tc iu tra
3.5. Phng php iu tra
3.6. Phng n iu tra
3.7. Sai s trong iu tra
41
3.1. Khi nim
KN : iu tra Tk l vic thu thp ti
liu ban u v i tng nghin cu
mt cch khoa hc v theo mt k
hoch thng nht
42
3.2. Yu cu i vi iu tra

Yu cu Gi i ph p
Chnh x c
Kp thi
y
Bo m tnh kh thi
Hi u qu
43
3.3. Phn loi iu tra TK
TTK
Cn c vo t/c lin tc
ca iu tra
Cn c vo phm vi
iu tra
iu tra
thng xuyn
iu tra khng
thng xuyn
iu tra
ton b
iu tra khng
ton b
/t
trng
im
/t
chuyn

/t
chn
mu

44
iu tra thng xuyn
Thu thp thng tin lin tc theo thi
gian, theo st vi s pht trin ca
hin tng nghin cu.
VD : - iu tra bin ng nhn khu
a phng (sinh, t, i, n)
- Theo di xut nhp kho, chm
cng hng ngy
u im, nhc im ?
45
iu tra khng thng xuyn
Tin hnh thu thp ti liu khng
thng xuyn, ty theo nhu cu
tng thi im.
u im, nhc im ?
46
iu tra ton b
L loi iu tra m tt c cc n
v thuc tng th nghin cu u
c thc t iu tra.
VD : Tng iu tra dn s
Tng iu tra nng nghip
u im, nhc im?
47
iu tra khng ton b
L loi iu tra m ch iu tra i
vi mt s n v c chn t
tng th nghin cu.
Mc ch: C thng tin lm cn c
nhn nh hoc suy rng cho tng
th chung.
u, nhc im ?
48
iu tra khng ton b (tip)
iu tra trng im
iu tra chuyn
iu tra chn mu

49
iu tra trng im
Ch b phn ch yu (b phn chim t
trng ln) ca tng th chung c tin
hnh iu tra. V d:
khng dng suy rng cho ton tng
th nhng gip cho vic nm c nhng
c im c bn ca hin tng.
Thch hp vi nhng tng th c cc b
phn tng i tp trung, chim t trng
ln trong tng th.

50
iu tra chuyn
L iu tra thu thp thng tin nhm
nghin cu mt chuyn no .
Thng dng nghin cu nhng in hnh
(tt, xu) tm hiu nguyn nhn, rt
kinh nghim
Kt qu iu tra khng dng suy rng
hoc lm cn c nh gi tnh hnh c
bn ca hin tng.

51
iu tra chn mu
L tin hnh iu tra thu thp thng tin
trn mt s n v ca tng th chung
theo phng php khoa hc sao cho cc
n v ny phi i din cho c tng th
chung .
Kt qu iu tra dng suy rng cho
c tng th chung.
u im?
Nhc im?
52
3.4. Cc hnh thc t chc iu
tra
Bo co thng k nh k
iu tra chuyn mn
53
Bo co thng k nh k

N: L hnh thc t chc iu tra thng
k thng xuyn, theo nh k, theo ni
dung, phng php, ch bo co
thng nht, do c quan c thm quyn
qui nh.
- c im: Trong hnh thc ny s dng
ph bin loi iu tra ton b v thng
xuyn, thu thp thng tin gin tip.
- Ni dung: Ch thu thp c mt s ch
tiu ch yu phc v cho vic qun l.
54
N: l hnh thc iu tra khng thng
xuyn, c tin hnh theo mt k
hoch v phng php ring cho mi ln
iu tra.
- c im: khi cn th mi tin hnh iu
tra.
- Ni dung: nhng ti liu TK nh k cha
hoc khng cung cp c; hoc
kim tra cht lng ca bo co TK nh
k.
iu tra chuyn mn
55
3.5.Phng php iu tra
Cc phng php
thu thp thng tin
Thu thp trc tip:
-T quan st hoc
trc tip gp i
tng thu thp
thng tin.
- u, nhc im?
Thu thp gin tip
-Thu thp thng tin qua
trung gian hay khai thc
ti liu t cc vn bn
sn c.
-u, nhc im?
56
3.6. Phng n iu tra
Mc ch?
i tng, phm vi?
Ni dung?
Thi k, thi im?
Hnh thc, phng php?
Nhn lc ti chnh?
57
Mc ch iu tra
- Quy nh r iu tra nhm tm hiu vn
g?
- Phc v cho yu cu nghin cu c th
no?
58
i tng iu tra v n v
iu tra
- i tng iu tra: l cc n v
ca hin tng nghin cu .

- n v iu tra: l n v thuc i
tng iu tra, ni pht sinh thng
tin cn c thu thp

59
- Ni dung T l mc lc cc tiu thc
cn thu thp, c din t thnh
nhng cu hi ngn gn, r rng.
- Cn c:
- Mc ch
- c im ca i tng nghin cu
- Nng lc iu tra

Ni dung iu tra
60
+ Thi im iu tra: l mc thi gian c
quy nh ghi chp thng nht ti liu cho
tt c cc n v iu tra.
+ Thi k iu tra: l di thi gian c
quy nh thu thp ti liu ca tt c cc
n v iu tra trong c thi k .
+ Thi hn iu tra: l khon thi gian dnh
cho vic thu thp s liu

Thi im iu tra v thi k
iu tra
61
3.7. Sai s trong iu tra
3.7.1. KN: L chnh lch gia thng tin
iu tra so vi mc thc t ca
n v c iu tra.
3.7.2. Nguyn nhn v gii php
Sai s do ghi chp
Sai s do tnh cht i biu
62
4. Tng hp thng k
4.1. Khi nim v nhim v
- KN: L tin hnh tp trung, chnh l v h
thng ho mt cch khoa hc cc thng tin
thu thp c trong iu tra thng k.
- Nhim v: bc u chuyn mt s c
im ring ca cc n v iu tra thnh
c trng chung ca tng th nghin cu.
63
4.2. ngha

- Gip c nhng nhn xt khi qut v hin
tng nghin cu.

- L c s cho cc giai on nghin cu
sau
64
4.3. Cc hnh thc t chc tng hp

- Tng hp tng cp: Tng hp theo tng
cp, t cp di ln cp trn theo k hoch
vch sn.
u: + Chnh xc
+ p ng tt nhu cu ca tng cp
Nhc: + Tn km
+ Hn ch vic p dng cng ngh
thng tin
- Tng hp tp trung: Ton b thng tin
c tp trung v mt ni tin hnh tng
hp.

65
4.4. K thut tng hp
- Th cng
- Bn th cng
- K thut hin i
66
5. Phn tch Thng k
5.1. KN
5.2. Yu cu
5.3. Phng php
67
5. Phn tch thng k
KN
L vic nghin cu, phn
nh mt cch tng hp
bn cht v tnh qui lut
ca hin tng nghin
cu trong iu kin nht
nh thng qua biu hin
bng lng l ch yu.
68
5. Phn tch thng k
Yu cu trong phn tch v d on TK
- Phi tin hnh trn c s phn tch l
lun KT XH
- Phi cn c vo ton b s kin v t
chng trong mi lin h rng buc ln
nhau.
- Phi p dng cc phng php khc
nhau i vi nhng mc tiu, hin
tng c tnh cht v hnh thc pht
trin khc nhau.
69
6 - D on thng k
6.1. KN: L vic cn c vo ti liu TK v
hin tng nghin cu trong thi gian
qua, dng cc phng php thch hp
tnh ton cc mc tng lai ca hin
tng KT XH nhm a ra nhng cn
c cho qun l.
6.2. Phng php
70
7. xut quyt nh qun l
71
Chng II
Tng hp thng k
I. S liu thng k
II. Sp xp s liu thng k
III. Phn t thng k
IV. Bng v th thng k
72
I. S liu thng k
- S liu thng k l nhng thng tin
thu thp c sau khi kt thc qu
trnh iu tra thng k.
- S liu thng k gm c 2 loi:
- S liu nh lng
- S liu nh tnh.
- Mi loi s c mt cch sp xp s
liu ph hp.

73
II. Sp xp s liu Thng k

- i vi s liu nh lng:
+ Sp xp theo th t (t thp n
cao hoc ngc li).
+ Sp xp theo tnh cht quan trng.
..
- i vi s liu nh tnh :
+ Sp xp theo trt t vn A,B,C;
hoc theo mt trt t qui nh no
.
+ Sp xp theo t/c quan trng
74
VD1:Bng 3.2. C cu vn FDI thc hin theo a
phng/khu vc, giai on 1996-2005 n v: %
Nm

a phng/Khu vc 1996-2000 2001-2005 1996-2005
+ 10 a phng dn u 72.0 61.8 66.8
TP H Ch Minh 24.5 13.2 18.6
ng Nai 13.5 14.3 13.9
H Ni 13.1 9.9 11.5
Bnh Dng 7.5 6.9 7.2
B Ra-Vng Tu 1.9 7.4 4.7
Hi Phng 5.3 2.6 3.9
Qung Ngi 2.6 1.4 2.0
Long An 1.0 2.3 1.7
Hi Dng 0.9 2.3 1.7
Vnh Phc 1.7 1.5 1.6
+ Cc a phng khc 17.2 8.7 12.7
+ Du kh 10.8 29.5 20.5
Chung cho c nn kinh t 100 100 100
75
II. Sp xp s liu

* Tc dng:
- Cho nhn xt s b v tng th v gip phn
t TK.
- Ring i vi s liu nh tnh.
+ Nhanh chng pht hin gi tr cao nht v
thp nht
+ D dng chia nhm s liu
+ Pht hin s ln xut hin ca mt gi tr
+ Quan st khong cch gia cc s liu lin
tip nhau.
* Hn ch: Khng thch hp vi lng thng tin
ln.
76
III. Phn t trong Thng k
V sao phi nghin cu v tin hnh
phn t trong nghin cu cng nh
thc tin qun l sn xut kinh
doanh????????

Why?????

77
Kt cu
1. KN, ngha, nhim v
2. Tiu thc phn t
3. S t v khong cch phn t
4. Dy s phn phi
5. Bng v th thng k
6. Phn t trong TK Ngoi thng
78
1. KN, ngha v nhim v ca
phn t
1.1. KN: Phn t l vic phn chia hin
tng hoc qu trnh KT-XH ra thnh
nhiu t hoc tiu t c tnh cht
khc nhau trn c s cn c vo mt
hoc mt s tiu thc no
VD:
1.2. ngha: L pp quan trng trong:
- Nghin cu
- Qun l KT-XH
79

- Phn chia HT-QT kinh t, x hi
phc tp ra thnh cc loi hnh
- Nghin cu kt cu
- Nghin cu mi lin h giu cc tiu
thc, HT
1.3. Nhim v
80
2. Tiu thc phn t
WHY???
2.1. N:?

2.2. Yu cu i vi tiu thc phn t
- Phn nh c bn cht ca hin tng
n/c
- Ph hp vi iu kin c th ca HT
nghin cu
- C tnh kh thi

81
2.3. Cc cn c xc nh tiu
thc phn t

- Mc ch n/c
- c im, tnh cht ca i tng
n/c
- Kh nng nhn ti, vt lc v thi
gian ca n v
- So snh chi ph v hiu qu

82
3. Xc nh s t v khong
cch t
3.1. Tiu thc phn t c t biu hin
hoc lng bin ca tiu thc thay i
t.
Cch xc nh s t :
Mi biu hin hoc mi lng bin
c hnh thnh mt t.
VD : Phn t th trng may mc theo
gii tnh

83
3. Xc nh s t v khong cch
t
3.2. Tiu thc phn t c nhiu biu
hin hoc lng bin ca tiu thc
thay i ln
- i vi tiu thc c nhiu biu hin
:
Tin hnh ghp nhng biu hin
tng t nhau thnh mt t.
84
- i vi tiu thc s lng c lng bin thay
i ln:
Da vo quan h lng cht phn t.
(Lng bin i n mc no th lm cht
bin i, mi khi cht thay i hnh thnh 1
t).
VD : im hc tp ca sinh vin chia thnh:
9 10 : Xut sc
8 9 : Gii
7 8 : Kh
5 7 : TB
3 5 : Yu
< 3 : Km
Trong nhng TH ny, mi t s gm 1 phm
vi lng bin c 2 gii hn r rt.
85
+ Gii hn di: l lng bin nh nht ca
t (x
i min
).
+ Gii hn trn: l lng bin ln nht ca t
(x
i max
).
Chnh lch gia gii hn trn v gii hn
di ca t gi l khong cch t (h
i
).
h
i
= x
i max
x
i min

Phn t c gii hn gi l phn t c
khong cch t.
Cc gii hn ca t
86
Trng hp khong cch ca cc t
bng nhau

h = (X
max
X
min
) / n
h : tr s k/c t
X
max
, X
min
: Lng bin ln nht v
lng bin nh nht trong tng th.
n : S t nh chia
Phn t vi khong cch t bng nhau
thng dng khi lng bin thay i
mt cch u n.

87
VD1: Chia TN ca mt DN (t 2,2 triu n 3
triu) thnh 4 t vi khong cch t bng
nhau:
h = (3000 2200) : 4 = 200 (1000)
Hnh thnh cc t:
2200 2400
2400 2600
2600 2800
2800 3000
Khi chia t theo CT trn, gii hn trn ca
t ng trc bng gii hn di ca t
ng sau.
88
4. Dy s phn phi
4.1. KN : L dy s c to ra khi tin
hnh phn t cc n v ca 1 hin
tng KT-XH theo mt tiu thc no
.

89
4.2. Phn loi dy s phn phi

- Dy s thuc tnh: L kt qu ca
vic phn t theo tiu thc thuc tnh.
- Dy s lng bin: L kt qu ca
vic phn t theo tiu thc s lng.
90
4.3. Cu to

Dy s phn phi gm cc thnh
phn:
* Cc biu hin hoc cc lng
bin ca tiu thc phn t: (xi)
* Tn s (f
i
): s n v ca lng
bin Xi

x
i

f
i
x
1
x
2
x
3

x
n

f
1
f
2
f
3

f
n.

91
Tn sut (d
i
)
=
i
i
i
f
f
d
L t trng s n v ca tng t
trong tng th, tnh bng n v
ln hay %

ngha: Cho bit s n v mi t
chim bao nhiu % trong ton b
tng th.
92
Tn s tch lu (Si): l tn s cng
dn t trn xung.
x
i
f
i
d
i
S
i
x
1
x
2
x
3

x
n

f
1
f
2
f
3

f
n.

f
1
/ f
i

f
2
/ f
i
f
3
/ f
i

f
n
/ f
i
f
1
f
1
+ f
2
f
1
+ f
2
+ f
3

f
i

93
Tc dng ca tn s tch ly

+ Trng hp khng c khong cch t:
Cho bit s n v ca tng th c lng bin
nh hn hoc bng mt lng bin c th
no
VD1 : Phn t cc h gia nh theo s ngi
S con (x
i
) S h (f
i
) Si
0 10 10
1 30 40
2 30 70
3 15 85
4 10 95
>4 5 100
Si = 70 cho bit 70 h gia nh c s con 2
94
+ TH c khong cch t: Tn s tch lu
phn nh s n v tng th c lng
bin nh hn gii hn trn ca t .
VD2: Phn t cc h gia nh theo din tch
nh :
DT nh (m
2
)(x
i
) S h (f
i
) S
i
< 10 5 5
10 30 10 15
30 50 30 45
50 70 40 85
70 15 100
S
i
= 45 cho bit c 85 h gia nh c DT <
50m
2

95
Tc dng ca tn s tch ly (tip)
+ Cho php xc nh mt n v
ng v tr no trong dy s
c lng bin l bao nhiu.
VD1: n v ng v tr th 50 c
lng bin l 2 con.
VD2: n v ng v tr th 50 c
lng bin nm trong t 50 70
m2.
96
NSL (chic) S CN (fi) hi Di
30 40 30 10 3
40 50 50 10 5
50 70 80 20 4
70 75 35 5 7
i
i
i
h
f
D =
+ Mt phn phi (Di)
Mt phn phi l t s gia tn
s vi tr s khong cch t.
Cng thc:
97
Cc bc c bn trong phn t

Phn t theo mt tiu thc hay cn
gi l phn t gin n:
+ Chn tiu thc phn t
+ Xc nh s t (v khong cch t)
+ Sp xp cc n v vo cc t
tng ng (XD dy s phn phi)
98
Cc bc c bn trong phn t

Phn t theo nhiu tiu thc (phn
t kt hp):
+ La chn tiu thc phn t:
+ Sp xp cc tiu thc phn t
theo th t hp l d phn
tch
+ Xc nh s t ca mi tiu thc
+ Chn cc n v vo cc t v
cc tiu t tng ng.
99
5. Phn t trong Thng k
Ngoi thng
5.1. KN
5.2. Cc loi phn t thng dng trong
thng k NT
100
5.1. KN, ngha v nhim v
a. KN: Phn t l vic phn chia hin t-
ng hoc qu trnh KTNT thnh nhiu
t hoc tiu t c tnh cht khc
nhau trn c s cn c vo mt hoc
mt s tiu thc no
VD:
b. ngha: L pp quan trng v c tnh
tin quyt trong: Nghin cu v Qun l
KT ca DN NT
101
5.2. Cc loi phn t thng
dng trong DN NT

5.2.1. Nghin cu tnh hnh SXKD
ca 1 n v, 1 t chc
5.2.2. Nghin cu th trng mt
mt hng, 1 nhm hng
102
5.2.1. Nghin cu tnh hnh
SXKD ca 1 n v, 1 t chc

+ Phn t theo mt hng/nhm mt
hng
+ Phn t theo th trng
+ Phn t theo n v cu thnh
+ Phn t theo khch hng
+ Phn t theo nghip v XNK
+ Cc kiu phn t khc
103
Phn t theo mt
hng/nhm mt hng

a) Bng
phn t

Ch
tiu
MH GTxk C L L/C
L/GTxk

A1
A2
:
Ak

An
DN
104

b. ngha, nhim v

-Nghin cu tnh hnh, kt qu/H :
SX
XK
NK
- Xc nh nguyn nhn, u, nhc, thun
li, kh khn, c hi v thch thc/W+
SWOT
- xut cc quyt nh/Making
decision
Ca tng MH/ nhm mt hng

105
c. Cc vn cn lu

1) DN kinh doanh t mt hng?

2) DN kinh doanh nhiu MH?
+ Phn theo nhm MH
+ Hoc kt hp: MH c bn v nhm MH

3) Cc ch tiu phn tch?
106
Phn t theo th trng
a) Bng phn t
Thtr- ng
Ai
A1
A2
:
Ak
An
GTxk C L GTnk
Cc ch tiu
107

b. ngha
Nghin cu tnh hnh, kt qu/H :
SX
XK
NK
- Xc nh nguyn nhn, u, nhc, thun
li, kh khn, c hi v thch thc/W+
SWOT
- xut cc quyt nh/Making
decision
Ca tng th trng
108
c. Cc vn cn lu

1) DN khng kinh doanh trn nhiu
TT?

2) DN kinh doanh trn nhiu TT
+ Phn theo nhm TT
+ Hoc kt hp: TT c bn v
nhm TT
3) Cc ch tiu phn tch?
109
5.2.2. Nghin cu th trng mt
mt hng, 1 nhm hng

Phn t th trng theo:
- Khu vc a l
- Gii tnh
- tui
- Thu nhp, mc sng dn c
110
Bi tp:
C ti liu v thi gian thc hin H
ca mt doanh nghip xut khu
(v: ngy)
8 10 19 20 9 26 16 12
14 16 19 12 17 18 7 14
6 13 3 23 4 16 20 20
7 5 17 11 15 6 10 21
17 4 15 22 27 11 19 18
21 18 9 19 14 21 17 8
111
Yu cu
Xy dng bng phn t thi gian thc
hin H vi khong cch t u nhau
bng 6 ngy
Nhn xt v thi gian thc hin H ca
doanh nghip
Gi s ti u k kinh doanh, doanh
nghip t mc tiu l thc hin c 50%
s H trong vng na thng, vy trong k,
doanh nghip c thc hin c mc tiu
ny khng?
112
6. Bng TK v th TK
6.1 - Bng thng k
a. KN:
L bng trnh by cc thng tin TK mt
cch c h thng, hp l, r rng nhm
nu ln nhng c trng v mt lng
ca hin tng nghin cu
113
S DN Lao ngVn GO VA
1 2 3 4 n
DN Nh n- c
DN TNHH
DN li n doanh
DN kh c
Tng
C c chti u gii thch
TPKT
b- Cu to bng Thng k

V hnh thc: Bng TK gm: Tiu , cc
hng ngang, ct dc, s liu, ngun s
liu

Bng : Mt s ch tiu c bn ca DN
phn theo thnh phn kinh t
114
b- Cu to bng Thng k
- V ni dung : Gm 2 phn
+ Phn ch (ch t): Trnh by cc b
phn ca hin tng nghin cuhay
c th l khng gian hoc thi gian
nghin cu ca hin tng .
+ Phn gii thch (tn t): gm cc ch
tiu gii thch cc c im ca i
tng nghin cu, gii thch cho phn
ch t.
115
C- Yu cu khi xy dng bng TK

Qui m bng khng nn qu ln
- Cc tiu , tiu mc ghi chnh xc,
gn, y , d hiu.
- Cc ch tiu gii thch cn sp xp hp
l, ph hp vi mc tiu nghin cu.
Cc ch tiu c lin h vi nhau nn
sp xp gn nhau.
- C n v tnh c th cho tng ch tiu.
116
Cch ghi s liu

+ Cc trong bng dng ghi s
liu, nhng nu khng c s liu th
dng cc k hiu qui c sau.
+ Du gch ngang (-): Hin tng
khng c s liu.
+ Du ba chm (): S liu cn
thiu, sau ny c th b sung.
+ Du gch cho (x ): Hin tng
khng lin quan n ch tiu, nu vit
s liu vo s khng c ngha.
117
a - KN :
L cc hnh v
hoc ng
nt hnh hc
dng miu
t c tnh cht
qui c cc
thng tin thng
k.
SV lp A v B HNT
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
A B Lp
S SV
(ngi)
Nam
N
6.2. th thng k
118
b. Tc dng

ng dng rng ri trong mi cng tc nhm
hnh tng ho v hin tng nghin cu,
c th biu hin:
+ S pht trin ca hin tng qua thi
gian
+ Kt cu v bin ng kt cu ca hin
tng
+ Tnh hnh thc hin k hoch
+ Mi lin h gia cc hin tng

119
C. Cc loi th TK

Cn c theo ni dung phn nh:
+ th pht trin
+ th kt cu
+ th lin h
+ th so snh
+ th phn phi
+ th hon thnh k hoch
.
120
Cn c vo hnh thc biu hin

+ Biu hnh ct
+ Biu tng hnh (biu hin bng
cc hnh v tng trng, dng
tuyn truyn, c ng)
+ Biu din tch (hnh vung, hnh
trn, hnh ch nht)
+ th ng gp khc
+ Bn thng k
121
CHNG 3

CC THAM S O LNG
THNG K
122
Cc tham s o lng thng k
o mc i biu

o bin thin

S bq
Mt
Trung v
Khong bin thin
Phng sai
lch tiu chun
H s bin thin
123
I Cc tham s o mc i
biu
124
1 ngha ca cc tham s o
mc i biu
- Nu ln c im chung ca hin tng KT-
XH s ln
- So snh cc hin tng khng cng qui m
- Nghin cu qu trnh bin ng qua thi gian.
- Chim v tr quan trng trong vic vn dng
cc phng php phn tch v d on TK
125
2 Cc tham s o mc
i biu
126
2.1. S bnh qun
2.1.1. KN v s bnh qun:
S bnh qun trong thng k l l
tr s biu hin mc i biu
theo mt ch tiu no ca hin tng
KT-XH bao gm nhiu n v cng loi

127
2.1.2. c im ca s
bnh qun

Mc c trng nht, khi qut nht
ca tng th bao gn nhiu n v cng
loi

L kt qu ca s san bng mi chnh
lch

Chu nh hng ln bi lng bin c tn
s ln nht
128
2.1.3. ngha v iu kin
vn dng

ngha
-c s dng ph bin trong
mi nghin cu
-S dng so snh, nht l
gia cc hin tng khng cng qui
m
-Dng nghin cu xu hng
pht trin
iu kin vn dng
129
2.1.4. Cc loi s bnh qun
SBQ cng

SBQ nhn
130

2.1.4. Cc loi s bnh qun

2.1.4.1. S bnh qun cng

H1 H 2 H 3 H n
q (1000 MT) 200 230 190
q bnh qun= (x1+x2+.+xn)/n
H1 H 2 H 3
q (1000 MT) 200 230 190
q bnh qun= 206.67
a) S bnh qun cng gin n
131
CT s bnh qun & trng hp
vn dng
K:
Cho cc lng bin c quan h tng
V cc tn s xut hin bng nhau
Gi bq?
n xi n x x x x
n
i
n
/ / ) .... (
1
2 1
=
= + + + =
132
b) S bnh qun cng gia
quyn
VD 2:

P ($/MT) q(MT) pi * qi
H 1 200 P1 2000 q1 400000
H2 190 P2 2500 q2 475000 200.7
H 3 210 P3 3000 q3 630000
:
:
:
Hn Pn qn
= (p1q1+ p2q2+ .+
pnqn)/(q1 + q2 + .+ qn)
S BQ + gia
quyn
P
p
133
CT s bnh qun cng gia
quyn & vn dng
CT

K:
Xi c quan h tng
Fi khc nhau
=
=
= + + + + + + =
n
i
i
n
i
i i
n n n
f
f x
f f f f x f x f x x
1
1
2 1 2 2 1 1
) .... /( ) .... (
134
Gi, t gi bnh qun
=
=
=
n
i
i
n
i
i i
q
q p
P
1
1
=
=
=
n
i
i
n
i
i i
q
q r
R
1
1
135
Mt s trng hp c bit
ca SBQ cng

136
NSL
(c/gi)
S CN
(ngi)
20-30
30-40
40-50
50-60
60-70
70-80
5
10
20
40
18
7
- TH dy s lng bin c khong cch t
VD 3.1 : Tnh NSL bq ca CN 1 DN bit
137

+ B1: Tnh tr s
gia ca t lm
lng bin i
din cho t
Tr s gia ca t =
(Gii hn trn ca
t + gii hn di
ca t) : 2
+ B2 : Tnh nh bq
cng gia quyn
VD trn :
Kq =

NSL
(c/gi)
S CN
(ngi)
f
i

Tr s
gia
x
i

x
i
f
i
20-30
30-40
40-50
50-60
60-70
70-80
5
10
20
40
18
7
25
35
45
55
65
75
100
138
- TH dy s
lng bin c
khong cch
t m, khi
tnh tr s
gia phi cn
c vo
khong cch
t gn chng
nht tnh.

Lng bin Tr s gia
< 500
500 600
.
800 1000
> 1000
450
550

900
1100
139
- TH ch bit tng lng bin (x
i
) v tng
cc lng bin M
i
(M
i
= x
i
.f
i
):

- Nu M
1
= M
2
= .. = M
n

=
i
i
i
x
M
M
x
S bnh qun iu
ho gia quyn
=
i
x
1
n
x
S bnh qun
iu ho gin n
140
VD :
Mt nhm 3 cng nhn tin hnh sn xut
mt loi sn phm. lm mt sn phm,
ngi th nht ht 12 pht, ngi th hai
ht 15 pht, v ngi th ba ht 20 pht.
Tnh thi gian hao ph bnh qun sn
xut mt sn phm ca cng nhn nhm
bit :
a/ Ngi th nht lm trong 5 gi, ngi th
hai lm trong 8 gi, ngi th ba lm trong
6 gi.
b/ C 3 ngi cng lm trong thi gian nh
nhau.
141
2.1.42 - S bnh qun nhn
(Bnh qun hnh hc geometric
mean)
a/ iu kin vn dng : Cc lng bin c QH
tch s.

b/ CT:
- S bq nhn gin n

- S bq nhn gia quyn
n
n 2 1
x ....... x . x x=
n 2 1 n 2 1
f ... f f f
n
f
2
f
1
x ..... x . x x
+ + +
=
142
VD :
Mt doanh nghip trong 10 nm c cc tc
pht trin nh sau:
- 5 nm u c tc pht trin mi nm l
115%
- 2 nm tip theo c tc pht trin mi
nm l 112%
- 3 nm cui c tc pht trin mi nm l
120%,
Tnh tc pht trin bnh qun ca doanh
nghip trong 10 nm ni trn.

143
2.2 - Mt (mode) M
0
a/ KN
- i vi dy s khng c khong cch t:
Mt l lng bin hoc biu hin c gp
nhiu nht trong dy s phn phi.
Cch xc nh M
0
Xc nh lng bin hoc biu hin c tn s
ln nht trong dy s phn phi, chnh l
M
0
.
144
VD 3.3: x
i
f
i
21 5
25 8
30 15
32 22
35 30
40 25
42 26
M
0
=
145
- i vi dy s c khong cch t (Ch c
dy s lng bin) :

Mt l lng bin c mt phn phi ln
nht, tc l xung quanh lng bin tp
trung tn s nhiu nht.
146
Cch xc nh M
0
ca dy s c khong cch t

B1 : Xc nh t cha M
0
+ Nu cc t c khong cch t bng nhau: T
no c tn s ln nht l t cha M
0
.

+ Nu cc t c khong cch t khng bng
nhau cn tnh mt phn phi Di (Di =
fi/hi). T no c mt phn phi ln nht
l t cha M
0
.
147
B2 : Tnh gi tr gn ng ca M
0
theo cng thc:
) D D ( ) D D (
D D
. h x M
) f f ( ) f f (
f f
. h x M
1 0 0 1 0 0
1 0 0
0 min 0
1 0 0 1 0 0
1 0 0
0 min 0
M M M M
M M
M M 0
M M M M
M M
M M 0
+
+

+ =
+

+ =
148
- Ch : Trng hp dy s phn phi c cc
tn s xp x bng nhau hoc c qu nhiu
im tp trung th khng nn tnh mt.
149
b/ c im ca M
0
:
+ D xc nh v c kh nng xc nh nhanh
+ Khng b nh hng bi cc gi tr t xut
(qu ln hoc qu nh) ca dy s phn
phi), v vy km nhy bn vi s bin
thin ca tiu thc.
c/ Tc dng:
+ Dng b sung hoc thay th s bnh qun
trong TH tnh s bq gp kh khn.
+ Dng nhiu trong l thuyt phc v m
ng.
150
2.3 Trung v (Median) M
e
(Ch dng vi dy s lng bin)
a/ KN
Trung v l lng bin ca n v ng v tr
chnh gia trong dy s lng bin, chia s
n v trong dy s thnh 2 phn bng nhau.

151
VD 3.4:
- Dy s : 20 21 25 27 30
Me =
- Dy s: xi fi
21 2
23 6
25 1
26 3
30 1
Me = ?
Dy s : 27 25 21 30 28
Me =?
152
- Ch :
+ Trung v l lng bin ca n v ng v
tr chnh gia ch khng phi lng bin
ng chnh gia.
+ Khi xc nh trung v phi xc nh n v
ng v tr chnh gia trong dy s lng
bin nn dy s ny phi c sp xp theo
th t nht nh (t nh n ln hoc ngc
li).
153
b/ Cch xc nh trung v
- Xc nh n v ng v tr chnh gia
+ Nu s n v tng th l s l (n = 2m + 1)
th n v ng v tr chnh gia l n v
th m + 1.
+ Nu s n v tng th l s chn (n = 2m)
th n v ng v tr chnh gia l n v
th m v m +1
154
- Tnh trung v:
+ i vi dy s khng c khong cch t,
trung v l lng bin ca n v ng v
tr chnh gia
Nu s n v tng th l s l : M
e
= x
m+1
Nu s n v tng th l chn :
M
e
= (x
m
+ x
m+1
) : 2

155
+ i vi dy s c khong cch t, cn qua 2 bc
B1 : X t cha trung v : l t cha lng bin ca
n v ng v tr chnh gia .
B2 : Tnh trung v theo cng thc (gi nh phn
phi u n):
e
1 e
e min e
M
M
i
M M e
f
S
2
f
. h x M

+ =

Tnh cho VD
156
c/ Tc dng ca M
e
:
- B sung hoc thay th s bnh qun khi cn thit.
- Khi kt hp vi s bq cng, mt, trung v c th
nu ln c trng ca dy s phn phi, c th:
+
Lch phi Lch tri i xng
Mean = Median = Mode
Mean
Median Mode Mode Median Mean
- Trung v c ng dng nhiu trong cng tc k
thut v phc v cng cng (v xi Me fi = min).
157
Trong cc tham s o mc i biu, tham s
no o mc i biu tt nht?
VD :
6000 $

2000 $

300 $

100 $

Ngi lao ng cho rng
mc lng thp, phn
ln ch t 100$/thng.
. Ch doanh nghip ni
rng mc lng kh cao,
bnh qun t
840$/thng!
158
II Cc tham s o
bin thin ca tiu thc
159
1 ngha ca bin thin
tiu thc
- nh gi trnh i biu ca s bnh qun

- Cho thy phn tn, nh gi ng u
gia cc lng bin trong tng th

- Kim tra cht lng sn phm.

- Dng nhiu trong cc nghin cu thng k
khc
160
2 Cc ch tiu o
bin thin ca tiu thc
161
2.1 - Khong bin thin ( R )
(Range)
a/ KN : L chnh lch gia lng bin ln nht
v lng bin nh nht ca tiu thc.

b/ CT : R = X
max
X
min
VD : T 1 : 45 50 55 60 65 R
1
= ?
T 2: 51 53 55 57 59 R
2
= ?

c/ u im : Tnh ton n gin, cho NX nhanh
v bin thin ca tng th.
Nhc im: Cho NX khng chnh xc khi c
cc lng bin t xut (qu ln hoc qu
nh).

162
2.2 Phng sai ( o
2
) (Variance)
a/ KN: L s bnh qun cng ca bnh phng
cc lch gia lng bin vi bnh qun cc
lng bin .
b/ Cng thc :

2
i
i
2
i
i
2
i
2
2
2 2
i
2
) x (
f
f . x
f
f . ) x x (
) x (
n
x
n
) x x (
i
i
=
= o
=
= o

163
c/ Tc dng :
- Biu hin bin thin tiu thc
- Dng nhiu trong phn tch thng k nh
tnh h s tng quan, xc nh c mu iu
tra

d/ Nhc im:
- Khuch i sai s
- n v tnh ton khng ph hp.
164
2.3 - lch tiu chun ( o )
(Standard deviation)
a/ KN : L cn bc hai ca phng sai

b/ Tc dng:
- L mt trong nhng ch tiu hon thin nht
o bin thin tiu thc
- Dng nhiu trong cc phn tch thng k.
- Cho bit s phn phi ca cc lng bin
trong mt tng th (da vo nh l
Chebyshev)
165
Theo nh l Chebyshev: c t nht (1
1/k
2
)% s cc lng bin nm trong khong
( ) vi k l mt s bt k ln hn 1,
ngha l vi 1 phn phi bt k c:
75% s cc lng bin nm trong khong
89% s cc lng bin nm trong khong

o k x
o 2 x
o 3 x
166
2.4 - H s bin thin (V)
(Coefficient of variation).
a/ TH s dng :
- Gi tr bnh qun ca 2 tng th a ra so snh
khc nhau nhiu.

- So snh bin thin ca 2 hin tng khc
nhau (n v tnh khc nhau).
167
b/ Cng thc :
(%) 100
M
V
(%) 100
x
V
0

o
=
o
=
Ch :
- Khi so snh 2 hin tng phi s dng cng 1 cng
thc.
- TH dng V nh gi tnh cht i biu ca s bnh
qun, nu V vt qu 40% th tnh cht i biu ca s
bnh qun qu thp, khng nn s dng s bnh qun .
168
S dng Exel tnh ton cc tham
s o lng thng k
- Chn Tool trn thanh cng c
- Chn Data Analysis (Nu khng thy th bm Add-
ins, sau chn Analysis ToolPak v bm OK).
- Bm chn Descriptive Statistics v bm OK.
- Khai bo Input Range v Output Options.
- Chn Summary Statistics.
- Bm OK.
Bng tng kt s hin ra vi cc tham s o lng.

169
CHNG 4

HI QUI V TNG QUAN
170
I - Mi lin h gia cc hin
tng v nhim v ca
phng php hi qui v
tng quan.
171
1 - Mi lin h gia cc hin
tng
2 loi lin h
Lin h
hm s
Lin h
tng quan
172
- Lin h hm s
+ Mi lin h hon ton cht ch v c biu
hin di dng mt hm s y = f(x) (s bin
i ca x hon ton quyt nh s thay i
ca y).
V d?
+ Khng ch thy c trn ton b tng th m
cn thy c trn tng n v ring bit.

+ VD : S = v.t

173
- Lin h tng quan
+ Mi lin h khng hon ton cht ch gia
cc hin tng nghin cu.
V d?
+ Thng khng biu hin r trn tng n v
c bit, do cn nghin cu hin tng s
ln.

+ Phng php dng nghin cu mi lin h
tng quan l phng php hi qui v
tng quan.
174
Lin h tng quan
V d: Nghin cu mi lin h gia tui
ngh (x) v NSL (y) trong mt x nghip
Nghin cu 15 cng nhn cng tui ngh
(x) l 5 nm thu c 15 mc NSL (y) khc
nhau.
Nguyn nhn:
- Ngoi tui ngh, NSL cn chu tc
ng ca nhiu yu t khc: sc khe,
kho lo
mi lin h khng hon ton cht ch.
175
2. Thc cht ca phng php
Xc nh m hnh/hm s
Xc nh mc cht ch
ca mi lin h tng quan
176
3- Nhim v ca phng php hi
qui v tng quan

* Nhim v tng qut:
- L phng php ton hc c vn dng
trong thng k biu hin v phn tch
mi lin h tng quan gia cc hin
tng kinh t x hi.

177
Nhim v c th:

a/ Xc nh phng trnh hi qui: 4 bc
B1: Da vo phn tch l lun gii
thch s tn ti thc t v bn cht ca
mi lin h:
+ Cc tiu thc nghin cu c lin h
khng
+ Xc nh tiu thc nguyn nhn, tiu
thc kt qu
178
B2: Xc nh hnh thc, tnh cht ca mi
lin h.
- Hnh thc: thun hay nghch
- Tnh cht: Tuyn tnh hay phi tuyn tnh

179
B3: Xc nh m hnh hi qui biu din
mi lin h.
B4: Tnh ton cc tham s, gii thch
ngha cc tham s.

b/ nh gi mc cht ch ca mi lin
h tng quan
- H s tng quan
- T s tng quan.
180
ngha
Xc nh hm biu hin quan h t-
ng quan gia cc nhn t
Lng ho nh hng ca cc nhn t
nguyn nhn ti GTxnk
L c s cho d on, lu chn ph-
ng n ti u
181
II Lin h tng quan tuyn
tnh gia 2 tiu thc
182
V d:
N m
thi gian
t
Gi tr
XK
G (tr$)
1991 1 3
1993 3 12
1994 4 9
1995 5 16
1997 7 12
1998 8 21
1999 9 21
2000 10 24
2001 11 19
2002 12 27
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
183
Xc nh m hnh hi
N m
thi gian
t
Gi tr
XK
G (tr$)
1997 1 3
1998 3 12
1999 4 9
2000 5 16
2001 7 12
2002 8 21
2003 9 21
2004 10 24
2005 11 19
2006 12 27
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
HQ thc nghim
HQ l
thuyt
184
ng hi qui l thuyt trong trng hp
ny l ng thng:
Trong :
x: Tr s ca tiu thc nguyn nhn
y
x
: Tr s ca tiu thc kt qu y c tnh
theo phng trnh hi
a: Tham s t do ni ln nh hng ca
cc nguyn nhn khc ngoi x i vi y
b : H s hi qui ni ln nh hng ca x
i vi y, c th mi khi x tng 1 n v th
y tng bnh qun b n v.

bx a y + =
Xc nh m hnh hi
185
Phng php xc nh cc tham s
ca phng trnh hi quy
Xc nh a,b da vo phng php bnh
phng nh nht.
* Phng php bnh phng nh nht:
Ti thiu ho tng bnh phng cc lch
gia gi tr thc t v gi tr iu chnh ca
bin ph thuc y.

= = min ) (
2
x
y y S
186
Xc nh cc tham
s

C1 : Tnh a,b t h phng
trnh

y = na + b x
xy = a x + b x2
187

Thay s liu vo ta c:
164 = 10a + 70b
1 369 = 70a + 610b
Gii ta c:
a = 3,52 v b = 1,84
Vy pt hi qui l:

+ =
+ =
+ =
+ =
2
bx x a xy
x b na y
xbx xa xy
bx a y
x y
x
84 , 1 52 , 3 + =
188
C2 : Tnh a , b theo cng thc :

x b y a
y . x xy
b
2
x
=
o
=
Tnh li cho VD : o
x
2
=

b =
a =
189
2 - H s tng quan ( r )
- ngha : nh gi trnh cht ch ca mi
lin h tng quan tuyn tnh.
- CT :
y
x
y x
. b r
.
y . x xy
r
o
o
=
o o
=
190
- Tc dng ca r
+ Xc nh cng ca mi lin h
+ Xc nh phng hng ca mi lin
h.
r > 0 : lin h tng quan thun
r < 0 : lin h tng quan nghch
+ Dng nhiu trong phn tch v d on
TK

191
- Tnh cht ca r : -1 r 1
+ r = 1 : Gia x v y c mi lin h hm
s
+ r = 0 : Gia x v y khng c mi lin
h tng quan tuyn tnh.
+ r cng tin gn ti 1 : Mi lin h gia
x v y cng cht ch.

Tnh r cho VD , kq r =
KL ?
192
III Lin h tng quan phi
tuyn tnh gia 2 tiu thc s
lng

193
1 Mt s m hnh hi quy phi
tuyn
a/ Phng trnh parabol bc 2

x
= a + bx + cx
2
Xc nh a,b,c:
y = na + b x + c x
2
xy = a x + b x
2
+ c x
3
x
2
y = a x
2
+ b x
3
+ c x
4
y
194
V d:
Tui
ngh
(nm)
3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36
Nng
sut
L
(sp/tg
)
12 23 35 44 51 55 58 60 57 52 47 38
195
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Series1
Poly. (Series1)
196
b/ Phng trnh hypebol:

Xc nh a, b da trn h phng trnh:

+ =
+ =

2
x
1
b
x
1
a
x
y
x
1
b na y
x
b a y
1
.
+ =
197
V d:
Mc
tiu th
hng
ho
(trVND)
75 90 120 150 180 220 300 450 600 800
T sut
ph lu
thng
(%)
10.0 9.2 8.1 7.8 7.9 7.0 6.1 5.8 5.3 5.0
198
V d:
10
9.2
8.1
7.8
7.9
7
6.1
5.8
5.3
5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
75 90 120 150 180 220 300 450 600 800
TSPLT
ng lin
h thc t
ng hi
quy l
thuyt
199
2 T s tng quan () - ta
ngha : nh gi trnh cht ch ca mi
lin h tng quan phi tuyn tnh.

CT :
=
o
o
=
o
o
= q
2
2
x
2
y
2
y
2
y
2
y
) y y (
) y y (
1 1
) x (
x
200
Trong :

Quan h gia 3 phng sai
?
n
) y y (
n
) y y (
) y (
n
y
n
) y y (
2
x
2
y
2
x
2
y
2
2 2
2
y
) x (
x
= o
= o
=
= o
201
Tnh cht ca :
T s tng quan c gi tr nm trong khong [0 ;
1]

0 1

Nu = 0 : x, y khng c mi lin h tng quan
Nu = 1 : x, y c lin h hm s
Nu cng gn 1 th lin h tng quan cng
cht ch
202
IV Tng quan tuyn tnh
a bin
203
a/ Phng trnh hi qui:

x
1
x
2
x
n
= a
0
+ a
1
x
1
+ a
2
x
2
+.+ a
n
x
n

X a
0
, a
1
, a
2
,., a
n
da trn h phng trnh:
y
204
b/ H s tng quan bi :
ngha : nh gi trnh cht ch ca mi lin
h tng quan tuyn tnh a bin.
Cng thc :
=
o
o
=
o
o
=
2
2
x ... x x
2
y
2
) x ... x x ( y
2
y
2
x ... x yx
x ... x x y
) y y (
) y y (
1
1 R
n 2 1
n 2 1 n 2 1
n 2 1
205
Tnh cht ca h s tng quan bi
C gi tr nm trong khong [0 ; 1]
0 R
y
x
1
x
2
x
n
1

Nu R = 0 : Gia y v cc x
1
, x
2
,, x
n

khng c lin h tuyn tnh.
Nu R = 1 : Gia y v cc x
1
, x
2
,, x
n
c
lin h hm s.
R cng gn 1, mi lin h gia y v cc
x
1
, x
2
,x
n
cng cht ch.

206
Tham s tng quan chun ho ( )

ngha : nh gi mc nh hng ca
tng bin c lp x
i
ti bin ph thuc y.

Cng thc :
y
x
k k
k
. a
o
o
= |
207
CHNG 5
PHNG PHP PHN TCH
DY S THI GIAN
208
I Khi nim, cu to v phn loi
dy s
thi gian
209
1. KN v dy s thi gian/ Time
series
1. KN: DSTG l mt dy cc tr s ca mt
ch tiu ca mt HT KT-XH c sp xp
theo th t thi gian
VD:
Nm 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
GTXK
(tr USD)
30 35 45 50 65
210
2 - Cu to ca dy s thi gian
- Thi gian : tun, thng, qu, nm
di gia 2 thi gian lin nhau gi l
khong cch thi gian.
- Ch tiu ca hin tng nghin cu
Cc tr s ca ch tiu gi l cc mc
ca dy s thi gian.
Ch : Phi bo m tnh cht so snh
c gia cc mc trong dy s
211
3. Phn loi DSTG: 2 loi
3.1. DS thi k
KN: L DS m mi tr s ca n biu
hin khi lng qui m ca hin tng trong
mt thi k nht nh

c im:
+ Mi mc l kt qu ca qu trnh
tch lu v lng ca ch tiu trong mt
thi k tng ng.
+ C tnh cht cng dn
212
3.2. Dy s thi im
L dy s m mi tr s ca n biu hin
qui m (khi lng) ca hin tng ti
mt thi im nht nh.
VD2
Ngy 1/1 1/2 1/3 1/4
Gi tr HH
tn kho (tr
)
50 55 52 68
213
c im ca dy s thi im:

+ Mi mc ch phn nh mt lng
ca hin tng ti mt thi im.

+ Khng c tnh cht cng dn (Cc
mc khng th cng vi nhau
phn nh qui m ca hin tng).
214
4 ngha ca dy s thi gian
- Cho php nghin cu c im v s bin
ng ca hin tng qua thi gian.
- Phn nh xu hng v tnh qui lut ca
s pht trin
- C s d on cc mc ca hin
tng trong tng lai.
215
II Cc ch tiu phn tch
dy s thi gian
216
1 - Mc bnh qun theo thi
gian ( )
- ngha : Phn nh mc i biu ca cc
mc trong dy s thi gian.
- Phng php tnh :
+ i vi dy s thi k:

y
n
y
y
n
1 i
i
=
=
217
V d
N m 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
q XK (MT) 4000 4300 4500 4900 5300
y
1
y
2
y
3
y
4
y
5
y
n
q bnh qun 4600
218
+ i vi dy s thi im
TH1 : Dy s thi im c khong cch bng
nhau

TH2 : Dy s thi im c khong cch thi gian
khng bng nhau
1 n
2
y
y .... y
2
y
y
n
1 n 2
1
+ + + +
=

=
i
i i
t
t . y
y
219
VD : C s liu v s CN ca mt doanh
nghip trong thng 4/2006 nh sau:
Ngy 1/4 c 600 cng nhn
Ngy 12/4 nhn thm 10 cng nhn
Ngy 15/4 cho thi vic 8 cng nhn
Ngy 25/4 nhn thm 18 cng nhn v
t n ht thng 4 khng c g thay
i.
Tnh s cng nhn bnh qun trong
thng 4 ca doanh nghip.
220
2 - Lng tng (gim) tuyt i
- ngha : Phn nh s thay i tuyt i
ca ch tiu gia 2 thi gian nghin cu.
- Cng thc:
+ Lng tng (gim) tuyt i lin hon
o
i
= y
i
y
i-1
(i = 2,3,, n)
+ Lng tng (gim) tuyt i nh gc
A
i
= y
i
y
1
(i= 2, 3,..., n)
221
V d
N m 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
q XK (MT) 4000 4300 4500 4900 5300
y
1
y
2
y
3
y
4
y
5
y
n
LH = y
i
- y
i-1
300 200 400 400
G = y
i
- y
1
0 300 500 900 1300
BQ
L- ng t ng gim tuyt i
325
222
+ Mi quan h gia o
i
v A
i
:

Tng cc lng tng (gim) tuyt i lin
hon bng lng tng (gim) tuyt i
nh gc.

=
=
o = A
= o = A
n
2 i
i n
k
2 i
i k
) n ,..., 3 , 2 k (
223
+ Lng tng (gim) tuyt i bnh qun
L bnh qun ca cc lng tng
(gim) tuyt i lin hon.

Ch : Lng tng (gim) tuyt i bnh
qun ch nn tnh khi cc mc trong
dy s c cng xu hng tng (hoc
gim).
1 n 1 n 1 n
....
n
n
2 i
i
n 3 2
A
=
o
=
o + + o + o
= o

=
224
3 - Tc pht trin
- ngha : Phn nh tc v xu hng
bin ng ca hin tng qua thi gian
bng s tng i.
- Cng thc:
+ Tc pht trin lin hon:
t
i
= y
i
/ y
i-1
(i = 2, 3,...,n) (/v : ln
hoc %)
+ Tc pht trin nh gc:
T
i
= y
i
/ y
1
(i = 2, 3,..., n) (/v: ln hoc
%)
225
V d
N m 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Khi l- ng XK (MT) 4000 4300 4500 4900 5300
y1 y2 y3 y4 y5
LH =t
i
= y
i
/(y
i-1
) 1.075 1.047 1.089 1.082
G =T
i
=y
i
/(y
1
) 1.000 1.075 1.125 1.225 1.325
BQ
LH =t
i
- 1 (ai) 0.075 0.047 0.089 0.082
G =T
i
- 1 (Ai) 0.000 0.075 0.125 0.225 0.325
BQ
1.073
Tc t ng gim
0.073
Tc ph t trin
1
[
=
n
i
t t
226
+ Mi quan h gia tc pht trin
lin hon v tc pht trin nh
gc:
Tc pht trin nh gc bng tch
cc tc pht trin lin hon :

=
=
n
2 i
i n
k
2 i
i k
t T
t T
227
+ Tc pht trin bnh qun
L bnh qun ca cc tc pht trin
lin hon.

Ch : Ch nn tnh i vi dy s c cng
xu hng tng (hoc gim).
1 n
1
n
1 n
n
1 n
n
2 i
i
1 n
n 3 2
y
y
T t t ...... t . t t
=
= = =
[
228
4 - Tc tng (hoc gim)
- ngha : Phn nh nhp tng (hoc
gim) ca hin tng qua thi gian.

- Cng thc
+ Tc tng (hoc gim) lin hon (a
i
)
a
i
= t
i
1 (t
i
tnh bng ln)
= t
i
100 (t
i
tnh bng %)
+ Tc tng (hoc gim) nh gc (Ai)
A
i
= T
i
1 (T
i
tnh bng ln)
= T
i
100 (T
i
tnh bng
%)
229
V d
N m 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Khi l- ng XK (MT) 4000 4300 4500 4900 5300
y1 y2 y3 y4 y5
LH =t
i
= y
i
/(y
i-1
) 1.075 1.047 1.089 1.082
G =T
i
=y
i
/(y
1
) 1.000 1.075 1.125 1.225 1.325
BQ
LH =t
i
- 1 (ai) 0.075 0.047 0.089 0.082
G =T
i
- 1 (Ai) 0.000 0.075 0.125 0.225 0.325
BQ
1.073
Tc t ng gim
0.073
Tc ph t trin
1
[
=
n
i
t t
230
+ Tc tng (hoc gim) bnh qun (
)
CT :

a
100 t
1 t a
=
=
(nu tnh bng ln)
(nu tnh bng %)
231
5 Gi tr tuyt i ca 1% tng
(hoc gim)
- ngha:
Phn nh c 1% tng (hoc gim) ca
tc tng (hoc gim) lin hon th
tng ng vi mt tr s tuyt i l bao
nhiu.
- CT:

Ch : Thng ch tnh i vi tc tng
(hoc gim) lin hon.
100
y
a
g
1 i
i
i
i

=
o
=
(a
i
tnh bng %)
232
Tng LH=G
Tch LH=G
N m 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Khi l- ng XK (MT) 4000 4300 4500 4900 5300
y
1
y
2
y
3
y
4
y
5
y
n
LH 300 200 400 400
G 0 300 500 900 1300
BQ
LH =t
i
= y
i
/(y
i -1
) 1.075 1.047 1.089 1.082
G =T
i
=y
i
/(y
1
) 1.000 1.075 1.125 1.225 1.325
BQ
LH =t
i
- 1 (ai) 0.075 0.047 0.089 0.082
G =T
i
- 1 (Ai) 0.000 0.075 0.125 0.225 0.325
BQ
Ga trtuyt i ca 1% t ng gim 40 43 45 49
1.073
Tc t ng gim
0.073
4600
L- ng t ng gim tuyt i
325
Tc ph t trin
n
qi
q

=
1

=
i i i
y y
1

=
i i i
y y
n i
n
i
, : ; 2
1
=

1
[
=
n
i
t t
233
III Cc phng php biu
hin xu hng pht trin ca
hin tng
234
Mc ch chung ca cc phng
php:
Loi b tc ng ca cc nhn t ngu
nhin phn nh xu hng pht trin
ca hin tng
235
1 Phng php m rng khong
cch thi gian
- Phm vi p dng:
Dy s thi gian c khong cch thi gian
tng i ngn v c nhiu mc m cha
biu hin c xu hng pht trin ca hin
tng.
VD :

Thng 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Doanh thu
(tr. ng)
33 46 41 42 40 48 47 45 52 50 48 40
236
- Ni dung ca phng php
T dy s thi gian cho xy dng
mt dy s thi gian mi bng cch m
rng khong cch thi gian.
VD: M rng khong cch thi gian t
thng sang qu.

Qu I II III IV
Doanh thu
(tr. ng)
120 130 139 138
237
2 Phng php s bnh qun di
ng (s bnh qun trt)
- Phm vi p dng:
Dy s c khong cch thi gian bng
nhau v c mc giao ng khi tng khi
gim nhng mc giao ng khng ln
lm.

238
- Ni dung ca phng php:
T dy s thi gian cho xy dng
dy s thi gian mi vi cc mc l
cc s bnh qun di ng.

S bnh qun di ng l s bnh qun
cng ca mt nhm nht nh cc mc
ca dy s c tnh bng cch loi
tr dn cc mc u, ng thi
thm vo cc mc tip theo sao cho
s lng cc mc tham gia tnh s
bnh qun khng thay i.
239
VD trn : Tnh s bnh
qun trt theo nhm
3 mc :

Thng
Sn
lng
(T)
S bnh
qun
trt
1 98
2 88 97.0
3 105 104.3
4 120 111.7
5 110 118.3
6 125 123.7
7 136 131.0
8 132 136.0
9 140 137.7
10 141 137.0
11 130 136.0
12 137
240
Ch :
Tu theo c im, tnh cht ca hin
tng xc nh s cc mc tham
gia tnh s bnh qun trt.
- T mt dy s c n mc , tnh s bnh
qun trt theo nhm m mc th s
cc mc ca dy s mi s l (n-
m+1).

241
3 Phng php hi qui
- Ni dung phng php:
Trn c s dy s thi gian xc nh
phng trnh hi qui biu hin xu
hng pht trin ca hin tng theo
thi gian.

Dng tng qut ca hm xu th:
y
t
= f (t)
vi t l bin thi gian.
242
- Phng trnh tuyn tnh n (ng
thng) :
y
t
= a
0
+ a
1
t

H phng trnh xc nh cc tham
s:
y = na
0
+ a
1
t
yt = a
0
t + a
1
t
2

- Phng trnh parabol bc 2
y
t
= a
0
+ a
1
t+ a
2
t
2
.......

243
V d : C s liu sau, hy xc nh hm xu th biu din
xu hng pht trin ca gi tr XK qua cc nm.
??? E
455 2005
452 2004
452 2003
445 2002
432 2001
430 2000
425
1999
GTXK (1000
$)
400
420
440
460
480
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
GTXK
Linear (GTXK)
Nm
244
l Cch 1 : t t theo th t t 1 n n
Nm GTXK
(1000 $)
t t
2
ty
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
425
430
432
445
452
452
455
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

245
Thay vo h phng trnh v
gii h

246
Cch 2 : Thay t bng t sao cho t = 0
(vn phi m bo tnh th t ) th vic
tnh ton s n gin hn.

Khi hm xu th : y
t
= a
0
+ a
1
t

H phng trnh tnh a
0
v a
1
:
y = na
0
a
0
= y / n
ty = a
1
t
2
a
1
= ty/ t
2
247
t
Vy t t th no t
= 0
248
Hy tnh li cho v d
Nm GTXK t yt t
2

1998 425
1999 430
2000 432
2001 445
2002 452
2003 452
2004 455
E 3091 0
154 28
249
Kt qu theo 2 cch t thi gian
Hm xu th theo t: Hm xu th theo t

250
4 Phng php ch s thi thi
v
- KN: Bin ng thi v l s bin ng theo
thi gian lp i lp li trong nhiu nm ca
hin tng.
- Nguyn nhn:
+ Do iu kin t nhin
+ Do vn ho, tp qun v tn ngng ca
dn c
+ Do c im pht sinh v pht trin ca
ng thc vt v con ngi
+ Do s lin h bin chng gia cc hin
tng kinh t - chnh tr - x hi
251
u nhc im ca bin
ng thi v

u

Nhc
252
Phng php ch s thi v
N m 2000 2001 2002
Qu
I 200 190 210 200 40
II 410 400 390 400 80
III 1050 950 1000 1000 200
IV 370 420 410 400 80
BQ 508 490 503 500 100
ij
i
i TV
y
y
I =
) (
i
y
ij
y
253
th
390 400 80
1000 1000 200
410 400 80
502.5 500 100
ij y
Itv(i) (%)
40
80
200
80
0
50
100
150
200
250
I II III IV
Itv(i) (%)
40
80
200
80
0
50
100
150
200
250
I II III IV
254
- Ch s thi v
+ ngha : Xc nh tnh cht v mc
ca bin ng thi v.
+ CT:

I
i
: Ch s thi v thi gian i (%)
: Bnh qun cc mc ca cc
thi gian c cng tn y
: Bnh qun ca tt c cc mc
ca tt c cc nm nghin cu.
100 x
y
y
I
0
i
i
=
i
y
0
y
255
Bi tp:
C s
liu v
mc
tiu th
MHX
mt a
phng
trong 3
nm
nh
sau :
Thng Mc tiu th (t ng)
2003 2004 2005
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1,49
1,46
1,53
1,92
2,75
3,28
3,52
3,33
2,60
2,25
2,14
1,98
1,50
1,49
1,60
2,21
2,80
3,28
3,62
3,30
2,60
2,20
2,20
1,90
1,49
1,48
1,61
2,00
2,74
3,25
3,70
3,21
2,61
2,30
2,19
1,95
28,25 28,70 28,53
i
y
0
y
256
IV - Mt s phng php d
on thng k ngn hn
257
1 - D on da vo lng tng
(gim) tuyt i bnh qun
- p dng khi lng tng (gim) lin hon ca
hin tng qua thi gian xp x bng nhau.

- M hnh d on
h . y y
n h n
o + =
+
258
2 - D on da vo tc pht
trin bnh qun
- p dng khi hin tng c s pht trin tng
i ng u, cc tc pht trin lin hon xp
x bng nhau.

- M hnh d on

h
n h n
t . y y
=
+
259
3 - Ngoi suy hm xu th
- Da vo phng trnh hi qui theo thi
gian d on.
- Phng trnh hi qui theo thi gian :
y
t
= f ( t, a
0
, a
1
,...., a
n
)
- M hnh d on:

n + L
= f ( t +L)

y
260
Chng 6: Ch s
261
I Khi nim v phn loi
ch s
262
1 Khi nim
Ch s l ch tiu kinh t biu hin quan
h so snh t l gia 2 mc no
ca mt hin tng kinh t x hi.
VD :
Ch s thu nhp ca bn Hng nm
2006 so vi nm 2005 l 120 triu ng :
100 triu ng = 1,2 ln = 120%
263
2 Phn loi ch s
264
2.1. Cn c vo phm vi tnh
ca ch s

Ch s c th/ Simple index
KN:
n:
Ch s t
KN
n:
Ch s chung
KN
YN
265
VD: ix, Ix
A1
A2
:
An
B1
B2
:
Bm
i
x
i
x
CS t
CS chung
266
2.2. Cn c vo tc dng ca
CS
CS pht trin/development index
KN
YN
CS khng gian
CS k hoch
CS nhn t
CS thi v
HT
Thi gian
?
Markets
267
2.3. Cn c vo tnh cht ca ch tiu
nghin cu:
+ Ch s ca ch tiu khi lng
+ Ch s ca ch tiu cht lng
268
3 Tc dng ca ch s
* Nghin cu bin ng ca hin tng qua:
+ Thi gian
+ Khng gian
* Biu hin v nh gi cc KH v tnh hnh
thc hin cc KH
* Phn tch bin ng ca hin tng theo
nhn t
* Nghin cu bin ng thi v
269
II Phng php tnh ch s
270
1. Phng php tnh ch s c th

1.1. CS pht trin
CT:
0
1
x
x
i
x
=
p
0
q
0
p
1
q
1
A 200 2500 210 3000
B 300 5000 295 4000
Mt hng
K gc (0) K nghin cu (1)
271
0 0
1 1
q p
q p
i
pq
=
0
1
q
q
i
q
=
0
1
p
p
i
p
=
0
1
R
R
i
R
=
K nghin cu (1)
p
0
q
0
p
1
q
1
A 200 2500 210 3000 1.05 1.20 1.26
B 300 5000 295 4000 0.98 0.80 0.79
ipq iq Mt hng ip
K gc(0)
272
1.2. CS c th khng gian
YN
CT

xA: l mc ca ch tiu x th
trng A
xB: l mc ca ch tiu x th
trng B
B
A
B xA
x
x
i =
/
273
1.3. CS c th k hoch
NV k hoch: K hoch/K gc

Hon thnh k hoch: TH/KH
0
x
x
i
KH
xNV
=
KH
TH
xHT
x
x
i =
0
1
x
x
i
x
=
274
2. Ch s chung
2.1. CS chung pht trin
?
0
1
P
P
I
P
=
?
0
1
q p
q p
I
P
=
?
0
0
1
1
q p
q p
I
P
=
1
0
1
1
q p
q p
I
P
=
275
* Ch s chung v khi lng hng ho (Iq)
(Ch s ca ch tiu khi lng)
- Cng thc:

- Tnh cho VD : I
q
= ?
KL
Ch s Laspeyres
Ch s Paashe
=
=
0 1
1 1
q
0 0
1 0
q
q p
q p
I
q p
q p
I
276
* Ch s chung v gi tr hng ho (I
pq
)
(Ch s ca ch tiu tng hp)
- Cng thc:

Tnh cho VD : I
pq
= ?

KL
=
0 0
1 1
pq
q p
q p
I
277

Thay s liu:
0056 , 1
4000 * 300 3000 * 200
4000 * 295 3000 * 210
1
0
1
1
=
+
+
= =
q p
q p
I
P
p
0
q
0
p
1
q
1
A 200 2500 210 3000
B 300 5000 295 4000
Mt hng
K gc (0) K nghin cu (1)
278
91 0
5000 300 2500 200
4000 295 3000 210
0
0
1
1
,
* *
* *
=
+
+
= =
q p
q p
I
Pq
9 0
300 5000 200 2500
300 4000 200 3000
0
0
0
1
,
* *
* *
=
+
+
= =
p q
p q
Iq
1 0
1
1
q R
q R
I
R
=
K nghin cu (1)
p
0
q
0
p
1
q
1
A 200 2500 210 3000 1.05 1.20 1.26
B 300 5000 295 4000 0.98 0.80 0.79
ipq iq Mt hng ip
K gc(0)
279
Phng php lun xy dng
ch s chung
1) Khi XDCS ca mt nhn t no
th phi a cc nhn t c lin
quan vo
2) Cc nhn t phi c nh -
quyn s
3) Khi XDCS ca nhn t cht lng,
th qun s c nh k 1
4) Khi XDCS ca nhn t s lng, th
qun s c nh k 0
280
Ch s bnh qun iu ho
p p p
P
i
d
d
i q p
q p
q p
q p
i
q p
q p
p
p
q p
q p
q p
q p
I
1
*
1
*
1
* *
1
1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
= = = = =
Cc trng hp c bit ca
CS pht trin
d
1

281
Ch s bnh qun cng gia
quyn
=
0
0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0 1
d
q
i * d
q p
q p
q
*i
q p
q p
p q
q
*i p q
p q
q
q
* p q
p q
p q
q
I
d
0

282
2.2. Ch s khng gian (Ch s a phng/th
trng)
- Ch s khng gian v gi (Ch s ca ch tiu
cht lng.
B A
B
A
) B / A ( P
q q Q
Q p
Q p
I + = =
283
- Ch s khng gian v lng (Ch s ca ch
tiu khi lng)

vi quyn s :
p = p
n
: Gi c nh do Nh nc qui nh

=
B
A
B A q
pq
pq
I
) / (
B A
B B A A
q q
q p q p
p p
+
+
= =
284
- Ch s khng gian v gi tr hng ho (Ch s
ca ch tiu tng hp):

=
B B
A A
) B / A ( pq
q p
q p
I
285
VD2 : C ti liu sau.Tnh ch s chung v
gi, lng v gi tr hng ho tiu th th
trng A so vi th trng B
MH
Th trng B Th trng A
p
A
(tr/tn)
q
A
(tn)
p
B

(tr/tn)
q
B

(tn)
X
Y
Z
286
3.2.3. CS chung k hoch

287
III - H thng ch s
288
1 Khi nim
H thng ch s l tp hp cc ch s c
lin h vi nhau v mi lin h c
biu din bng mt ng thc nht nh.

VD : I
pq
= I
p
x I
q

I
pht trin z
= I
NV Z
x I
TH Z
289
2. Cu to : Gm 2 b phn
+ Ch s ton b : Nu ln bin ng ca
ton b hin tng gm nhiu nhn t.
+ Cc ch s nhn t (Ch s b phn) :
Nu ln bin ng ca tng nhn t cu
thnh hin tng v nh hng ca
bin ng ny ti bin ng ca hin
tng.

Trong HTCS, ch s ton b bng tch
cc ch s nhn t.
290
3. Phn loi h thng ch s
- HTCS ca cc ch tiu c lin h vi nhau
VD : I
p
q
= I
p
x I
q

- HTCS biu hin mi lin h gia ch s pht
trin v cc ch s k hoch.
Ch s pht trin = Ch s NV x Ch s TH

- HTCS ca cc ch s pht trin.
Ch s pht trin nh gc bng tch cc ch s pht trin
lin hon.
291
4. HTCS ca cc ch tiu c lin h
vi nhau
- C s hnh thnh HTCS : Mi lin h thc t
gia cc ch tiu.
VD: I
p
q
= I
p
x I
q

292
Phng php xy dng
HTCS
Bc 1: Xc nh mi lin h
VD: PQ = P * Q
Bc 2: Xy dng cc ch s

Bc 3: Thit lp ng thc biu hin mi
quan h gia cc ch s
293
- Tc dng ca HTCS:
+ Tnh ton v xy dng mt ch s khi
bit cc ch s khc trong HTCS.
+ Phn tch nhn t (Xc nh c vai
tr v nh hng ca mi nhn t i
vi bin ng ca hin tng nghin
cu, qua gii thch c mt cch
ng n cc nguyn nhn lm hin
tng bin ng)
294
- Phng php phn tch HTCS:
+ Mc ch : Phn tch s bin ng ca hin
tng do nh hng ca cc nhn t cu
thnh.
+ Cc bc phn tch:
B1 : Lp HTCS
C th : X mi lin h gia cc ch tiu
Xy dng cc ch s ca cc ch tiu.
VD : Gi tr hh tiu th = Gi bn x KL tiu th
I
pq
= I
p
x I
q

=
0 0
1 0
1 0
1 1
0 0
1 1
q p
q p
x
q p
q p
q p
q p
295
B2: Dng s liu tnh cc ch s trong HTCS, ch ra
% tng (gim) ca mi ch s.
B3: Tnh cc lng tng (gim) tuyt i

p
1
q
1
- p
0
q
0
= (p
1
q
1
- p
0
q
1
) + (p
0
q
1
- p
0
q
0
)
A
pq
= A
pq(p)
+ A
pq (q)

B4 : Tnh cc lng tng (gim) tng i.
Apq / p
0
q
0 =
( Apq(p)/ p
0
q
0
)
+
(Apq(q)/ p
0
q
0
)
B5 : KL
- V s bin ng ca ch tiu tng hp
- V s bin ng ca tng ch tiu nhn t v nh
hng ca n n ch tiu tng hp.

296
V d:
P
0
($/MT) q
0
(MT) P
1
q
1
A 200 7000 210 7500
B 300 2000 295 2500
Mt hng
K gc (0) K nghin cu(1)
297
Kt lun
Gi tr xut khu ca doanh nghip
tng
312 500$ = 62 500 + 250 000$ ng vi
15.63 % = 3.13% + 12.5 %
Trong gi Xk cc mt hng tng ( ) lm
cho gi tr XK tng 62 500$ ng vi 3,13%
Lng XK cc mt hng tng lm cho gi tr
XK DN tng 250 000$ ng vi 12,5%

% T i tng GT % T i tng GT
A 75,000 5.36 3.75 100,000 7.14 5.00
B -12,500 -2.08 -0.63 150,000 25.00 7.50
DN 62,500 3.13 250,000 12.50 312,500
15.63
MH
GT t ng (p) GT t ng (q)
) ( p
GT A
) ( q
GT A
298
Phng php phn tch lin
hon

MH A:
P: Gi mt hng A tng 10$/MT (5%) lm cho gi tr xk
MH A tng: (210-200)* 7500 = 75 000 $ ng vi

Mt khc n lm cho tng gi tr XK tng:
% 36 . 5 0536 . 0
7000 * 200
75000
= =
% 75 . 3 0375 . 0
2000 * 300 7000 * 200
75000
= =
+
P
0
($/MT) q
0
(MT) P
1
q
1
A 200 7000 210 7500
B 300 2000 295 2500
Mt hng
299
q: Lng mt hng A tng 500MT (?%) lm cho
gi tr xk MH A tng: (7500-7000)* 200 = 100 000
$
ng vi

% 14 . 7 0714 . 0
7000 * 200
100000
= =
% 5 05 . 0
2000 * 300 7000 * 200
100000
= =
+
P
0
($/MT) q
0
(MT) P
1
q
1
A 200 7000 210 7500
B 300 2000 295 2500
Mt hng
300
Bng tng hp
P
0
($/MT) q
0
(MT) P
1
q
1
A 200 7000 210 7500
B 300 2000 295 2500
A 75,000 5.36 3.75 100,000 7.14 5.00
B -12,500 -2.08 -0.63 150,000 25.00 7.50
DN 62,500 3.13 250,000 12.50
Mt hng
0 0 1 ) (
* ) ( p q q GT
q
= A
1 0 1 ) (
* ) ( q p p GT
P
= A
) ( p
GT A
) ( q
GT A
301
Kt lun
Gi tr xut khu ca doanh nghip
tng
312 500$ = 62 500 + 250 000$ ng vi
15.63 % = 3.13% + 12.5 %
Trong gi Xk cc mt hng tng ( ) lm
cho gi tr XK tng 62 500$ ng vi 3,13%
Lng XK cc mt hng tng lm cho gi tr
XK DN tng 250 000$ ng vi 12,5%

A 75,000 5.36 3.75 100,000 7.14 5.00
B -12,500 -2.08 -0.63 150,000 25.00 7.50
DN 62,500 3.13 250,000 12.50 312,500
15.63
MH
) ( p
GT A
) ( q
GT A
302
CT
0 0
) (
0 0
) (
1 0 1 ) (
; * ) (
q p
GT
q p
GT
q p p GT
P P
P
A A
= A
0 0
) (
0 0
) (
0 0 1 ) (
; * ) (
q p
GT
q p
GT
p q q GT
q q
q
A A
= A
) ( ) ( ) ( q p pq
GT GT GT A + A = A
303
Nguyn tc ca pp lin hon
1) Khi xc nh nh hng ca mt nhn
t no th phi a cc nhn t c
lin quan vo
2) Cc nhn t phi c nh - quyn
s
3) Khi xc nh nh hng ca nhn t
cht lng, th qun s c nh k 1
4) Khi xc nh nh hng ca nhn t s
lng, th qun s c nh k 0
304
Phng php phn tch bin
ng ring bit

MH A:
MH A tng: (210-200)* 7000 = 70 000 $ ng vi

% 5 05 . 0
7000 * 200
70000
= =
% 036 . 0
2000 * 300 7000 * 200
70000
=
+
P
0
($/MT) q
0
(MT) P
1
q
1
A 200 7000 210 7500
B 300 2000 295 2500
Mt hng
305
q: Lng mt hng A tng 500MT (?%) lm cho gi tr
xk MH A tng: (7500-7000)* 200 = 100 000 $
ng vi

% 14 . 7 0714 . 0
7000 * 200
100000
= =
% 5 05 . 0
2000 * 300 7000 * 200
100000
= =
+
P
0
($/MT) q
0
(MT) P
1
q
1
A 200 7000 210 7500
B 300 2000 295 2500
Mt hng
306
pxq: S cng bin ng v tc ng ln nhau gia
gi v lng lm cho gi tr XK mt hng A tng :

(7500 * 210 - 200 * 7000) - 70 000 -100 000 = 50 000 $
ng vi ??

) ( * ) (
) (
0 1 0 1
) ( *) ( 0 0 1 1 ) (
q q p p
GT GT q p q p GT
q p pxq
=
A A = A
P
0
($/MT) q
0
(MT) P
1
q
1
A 200 7000 210 7500
B 300 2000 295 2500
Mt hng
307
Tng hp
% T i tng GT % T i tng GT % T i tng GT
A 70,000 5.00 3.50 100,000 7.14 5.00 5000 0.36 0.2500
B -10,000 -1.67 -0.50 150,000 25.00 7.50 -2500 -0.42 -0.1250
GT t ng (pxq)
MH
) (pxq GT A
) ( q
GT A
*) ( p
GT A
) ( q
GT A
308
CT
0 0
*) (
0 0
*) (
0 0 1 *) (
; * ) (
q p
GT
q p
GT
q p p GT
P P
P
A A
= A
0 0
) (
0 0
) (
0 0 1 ) (
; * ) (
q p
GT
q p
GT
p q q GT
q q
q
A A
= A
) ( ) ( *) ( ) ( pxq q p pq
GT GT GT GT A + A + A = A
) ( * ) (
0 1 0 1 ) (
q q p p GT
pxq
= A
309
Nguyn tc ca pp ring
bit
1) Khi xc nh nh hng ca mt nhn t
no th phi a cc nhn t c lin
quan vo
2) Cc nhn t phi c nh - quyn s
3) Quyn s u c c nh k gc
310
Phn tch bin ng ca
p,q, r ti GT xnk

r
0
=15 000; r
1
= 15 500
MH A:
MH A tng: (210-200)* 7500 = 75 000 $
75 000 $ x
r
0
r
1
P
0
($/MT) q
0
(MT) P
1
q
1
A 200 7000 210 7500
B 300 2000 295 2500
Mt hng
311
Phn tch bin ng ca
p,q, r ti GT xnk
MH A:
P MH A tng 10$/MT (5%) lm cho gi tr xk MH A tng:
(210-200)* 7500*15000 = 75 000 *15000 = 1 125
000 000 VND
ng vi

% 36 . 5 0536 . 0
15000 * 7000 * 200
15000 * 75000
= =
% 75 . 3 0375 . 0
2000 * 300 7000 * 200
75000
= =
+
0 0 0
) (
r q p
GT
P
A
0 0 0
0 1 0 1
* ) (
r q p
r q p p
0 1 0 1 ) (
* ) ( r q p p GT
P
= A
312
q: Lng mt hng A tng 500MT (?%) lm cho gi tr
xk MH A tng: (7500-7000)* 200*15000 = 100 000 $
*15000 =1 500 000 000 VND
ng vi

% 14 . 7 0714 . 0
15000 * 7000 * 200
15000 * 100000
= =
% 5 05 . 0
15000 * ) 2000 * 300 7000 * 200 (
15000 * 100000
= =
+
P
0
($/MT) q
0
(MT) P
1
q
1
A 200 7000 210 7500
B 300 2000 295 2500
Mt hng
313

r?
T gi tng 500 /1$ lm cho GT xk mt
hng A tng:(15 500-15 000)*210*7500
=787 500 000 VND
ng vi .

% T i tng GT % T i tng GT % T i tng GT
A 1,125,000,000 5.36 3.75 1,500,000,000 7.14 5.00 787,500,000 3.75 2.63
B -187,500,000 -2.08 -0.63 2,250,000,000 25.00 7.50 368,750,000 4.10 1.23
DN 937,500,000 3.13 3,750,000,000 12.50 1,156,250,000 3.85
5,843,750,000 19.48
GT t ng (r)
MH
) ( p
GT A
) ( q
GT A
) ( r
GT A
314
Kt lun
TGT %T GT T GT
A 1,125,000,000 3.75 1,500,000,000 5.00 787,500,000 2.63
B -187,500,000 -0.63 2,250,000,000 7.50 368,750,000 1.23
DN 937,500,000 3.13 3,750,000,000 12.50 1,156,250,000 3.85
Tng GT t ng: 5,843,750,000 19.48
937,500,000 3,750,000,000 1,156,250,000
3.13 12.50 3.85
GT t ng (r)
MH
) ( p
GT A
) ( q
GT A
) ( r
GT A
) ( p
GT A
) ( q
GT A
) (r
GT A
315
CT
0 0 0
) (
0 0 0
) (
0 1 0 1 ) (
; * ) (
r q p
GT
r q p
GT
r q p p GT
P P
P
A A
= A
0 0 0
) (
0 0 0
) (
0 0 0 1 ) (
; * ) (
r q p
GT
r q p
GT
r p q q GT
q q
q
A A
= A
) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( r q p pq
GT GT GT GT A + A + A = A
0 0 0
) (
0 0 0
) (
1 1 0 1 ) (
; * ) (
r q p
GT
r q p
GT
q p r r GT
r r
r
A A
= A
316
Bi tp: C s liu sau

Cho bit thm tng chi ph sx (chung c 4 sp) k gc l
820 000 (nghn ng)
a/ Tnh ch s gi thnh tng loi sn phm
b/ Phn tch s bin ng ca tng chi ph sx do nh
hng ca gi thnh v sn lng bng HTCS
SP Chi ph sn xut k
nghin cu (1000)
Gi thnh n v sp ()
K gc K n/c
A
B
C
D
180 000
75 600
540 000
47 500
4000
6000
7500
5000
3600
6300
6000
4750
317
5. Vn dng HTCS phn tch bin ng ca
ch tiu bnh qun

- Ch s ca ch tiu bnh qun

= =
0
0 0
1
1 1
0
1
x
f
f x
f
f x
x
x
I
318
Cc ch s nhn t:
- Ch s cu thnh c nh:
+ Phn nh bin ng ca ch tiu nghin cu (X)
+ Gip xc nh nh hng bin ng ca bn
thn tiu thc nghin cu (X) ti ch tiu bnh
qun
01
1
1
1 0
1
1 1
x
x
x
f
f x
f
f x
I = =
319
- Ch s nh hng kt cu:
Phn nh bin ng kt cu ca tng th
nghin cu v tc ng ca n ti ch tiu
bnh qun, khi bn thn tiu thc nghin
cu c coi nh khng i v thng c
c nh k gc.

0
01
0
0 0
1
1 0
f / f
x
x
f
f x
f
f x
I = =
320
HTCS ca ch tiu bnh qun
0
01
01
1
0
1
0
0 0
1
1 0
1
1 0
1
1 1
0
0 0
1
1 1
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
f
f x
f
f x
x
f
f x
f
f x
f
f x
f
f x
I
=
= =
321
VD: C s liu v gi thnh v sn lng ca
mt loi sn phm ti 1 XN nh sau:

Phn tch s bin ng ca gi thnh bnh
qun do nh hng ca cc nhn t

Phn
xn
g
K gc K nghin cu
Gi
thnh
(1000/c
)
Sn
lng
(chic)
Gi
thnh
(1000/c
)
Sn
lng
(chic)
A
B
C
100
105
110
2000
3500
4500
95
100
105
6000
4000
2000
322
Chng VII. Thng k hiu qu
SX-KD
Yu cu:
KN
Nguyn tc nh gi hiu qu
HTCT
Phng php nh gi
323
Kt cu
I. KN v phn loi hiu qu kinh t
II. Nguyn tc nh gi hiu qu
III. H thng ch tiu
IV. Phng php phn tch hiu qu kinh
t
V. Thng k li nhun

324
I. KN
1. KN
1.1. KN1: Hiu qu l t l gia kt qu
so vi chi ph
VD: Mt hp ng XK c:
LN = 100 000$
CF = 2000 000$
HQ= LN/CF = 100 000/2000 000 =
5%
u im?
Nhc im?

325
1.2. Khi nim 2
KN: Hiu qu l s so snh gia kt qu
so vi chi ph

u?

Nhc?
326
1.3. Khi nim 3
KN: Hiu qu kinh t l phm tr kinh t phn
nh cht lng khai thc, s dng ngun lc, chi
ph t c mc tiu kinh doanh. N c
biu hin bi quan h so snh gia kt qu c
hng ch vi chi ph hoc ngun tng ng.

u?

Nhc?
327
2. Phn loi hiu qu kinh t

Ty theo mc ch nghin cu, HQKT c phn
loi theo:
+ Phm vi tnh hiu qu
+ Phm vi tnh hiu qu i vi cc nhn t sn
xut
+ Nhn t sn xut
+ Phng php tnh hiu qu

328
2.1. Theo phm vi tnh hiu qu
Hiu qu vi m
Hiu qu v m
329
2.2. Theo phm vi tnh hiu qu
i vi nhn t sn xut
Hiu qu ton b: Phn nh hiu qu kinh
t ca ton b nhn t sn xut

Hiu qu gia tng: Phn nh hiu qu kinh
t ca phn tng thm ca cc nhn t
sn xut, l t l gia phn kt qu tng
thm so vi phn tng thm ca (cc)
nhn t sn xut
330
2.3. Theo nhn t sn xut
Hiu qu ca ngun vn
Hiu qu ca ngun nhn lc
Hiu qu ca chi ph
Hiu qu ca ti sn
331
II. Nguyn tc nh gi hiu
qu

1. Bo m tnh ton din h thng

2. nh gi hiu qu l mt qu trnh
lin tc v khp kn
332
Mc ti u
Vi m Vm
Kinh t X hi
Tr- c mt Lu di
nh tnh nh l- ng
B phn Tng th
Nhn t Tng h p
1. Bo m tnh ton din h
thng

333
2. nh gi hiu qu l mt qu
trnh lin tc v khp kn
I) Nghin cu tnh hnh SXKD
- Mi trng
Tnh hnh KT-CT-XH
Hthng ph p lut
C quan, tchc chnh ph
- Thtr- ng
- Doanh nghip
II) Xy dng c c phng
n
- C c phng n
- C c iu chnh
- C c khuyn ngh
IV) Hnh ng/Actioon
- Tchc
- Thc hin
III)Quyt nh/Making
decision
- La chn
- Thm nh
- La chn
Nhc/W
u/S
Thch thc/T C hi/Op.
334
III. H thng ch tiu nh gi
hiu qu kinh t
1. H thng ch tiu kt qu
2. H thng ch tiu chi ph v ngun
lc
3. H thng ch tiu hiu qu kinh t

335
1. H thng ch kt qu SX-
KD - XNK
1. GO
2.VA
3. NVA
4. Re
5. NRe
6. GP

7. PBT
8. PAT
9. V
10. T
11 Cc ch tiu khc

336
1. Cc ch tiu kt qu (cont.)
pp sn xut
Ni dung GT thnh phm GT b n TP Chnh l ch sp GT c bi t Thu t dch v
Yu t Cdv C2 KHTSC/C1 V M
.=GO-IC
.=VA- KHTSC
PP phn phi
GO
VA
NVA
337
1. Cc ch tiu kt qu (cont.)
ThuTTB ThuXK/Exp. Tax. #
Tng gi vn hng
C b n C qun l
L i sau thu ThuTN
GO-IC-V-KH-ThuSX va SF
Doanh thu/ R
DT thun/net revenue
L i gp
L i thun tr- c thu/PBT
338
a - Mt s ch tiu phn nh KQSXKD ca
DN
a.1 - Tng gi tr SX ca DN (GO Gross
Output)
- L ton b gi tr ca SPVC v SPDV
do L ca DN lm ra trong mt thi k
nht nh thng l 1 nm.
- C cu gi tr : GO = C
1
+ C
2
+ V + M
- CT : i vi ngnh thng nghip
GO = Doanh s bn ra Gi vn hng
bn
339
DN
a.2 Gi tr gia tng ca (VA Value Added):
- L mt b phn ca GO, th hin phn kt
qu L hu ch do hot ng sn xut v
dch v to ra trong mt thi k nht nh
thng l 1 nm. N ch bao gm phn gi tr
mi c to ra nn gi l gi tr gia tng hay
gi tr tng thm.
- C cu gi tr : VA = C
1
+ V + M
- CT : VA = GO IC
(IC Intermidiate Cost : Chi ph trung gian l
ton b chi ph VC v DV phc v cho H
SXKD ca DN.
340
DN
a.3 Doanh thu tiu th (DT)
- L tng s tin m DN thc t thu c trong
k nh bn sn phm hng ho v dch v ca
mnh.
- CT : DT = pq
- Ni dung : DT gm
+ S tin thu c t bn sp k ny
+ S tin thu c do giao hng t k trc
nhng k ny mi thu c tin.
341
DN
a.4 Li nhun hay li KD ca DN (LN)
- L phn chnh lch dng gia doanh
thu v chi ph.
- CT : LN = pq - zq

342
2. H thng ch tiu chi ph v
ngun lc
Nhm ch tiu chi ph
Nhm ch tiu ngun lc
Nhm ch tiu ngun vn
Nhm ch tiu ngun lao ng
Nhm ch tiu ti sn
343
3. H thng ch tiu hiu qu
3.1. Phn h ch tiu hiu quton b
3.2. Phn h ch tiu hiu qu gia tng
344
3.1. Phn h ch tiu hiu qu
ton b
GO NVA Re Pr T #
1 Ca
2 Hr
3 TR
4 C
5 Re
6 #
Ca
GO
Ca
Re
Ca
Pr
C
Pr
Re
Pr
345
3.2. Phn h ch tiu hiu qu
gia tng
346
VD : Phn tch hiu qu SXKD ca DN da vo
cc ch tiu sau:
Ch tiu /v tnh Nm trc Nm
nay
1/ Tng LN
2/ Vn SXKD bnh
qun.
3/ S lao ng
bnh qun
triu ng
triu ng

ngi
1200
3500

25
1800
4200

30
347
IV. Phng php phn tch hiu
qu kinh t
Phng php phn tch dy s thi gian
Phng php ch s
Phng php hi quy tng quan
348
V. Thng k li nhun
349
V. Thng k li nhun
1. KN v phn loi li nhun
2. Phn tch xu hng ca li nhun
3. Phn tch li nhun theo nhn t
4. nh gi TH TH k hoch
5. M hnh ho li nhun
6. D on li nhun
7. Phng n ti a ho li nhun
8. Phng n ti u ho li nhun

350
1. KN v phn loi li nhun
KN:
Phn loi:
ThuTTB ThuXK/Exp. Tax. #
Tng gi vn hng
C b n C qun l
L i sau thu ThuTN
L i thun tr- c thu
GO-IC-V-KH-ThuSX va SF
DOANH THU
DT thun/net revenue
L i gp
351
2. Phn tch xu hng
bin ng ca li nhun
YN

PP: DSTG
352
VD??
N m 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
LN(1000$) 400 430 410 490 530
LN bq (1000$/n m)
Mc t ng LN hng n m (1.000$) 30 -20 80 40
L- ng t ng nh gc (1.000$) 0 30 10 90 130
L- ng t ng bnh qun (1.000$)
t
i
= x
i
/(x
i-1
) 1.075 0.953 1.195 1.082
T
i
=x
i
/(x
1
) 1.000 1.075 1.025 1.225 1.325

ai =t
i
- 1 0.075 -0.047 0.195 0.082
Ai =T
i
- 1 0.000 0.075 0.025 0.225 0.325
0.073
452
32.5
1.073
353
3. Phn tch s bin ng
ca li nhun theo nhn t

LN
P
q
Z
R
3.1 Phn tch nh hng ca p,q,z ti
LN
3.2. Phn tch p,q,z v R ti LN

354
3.1. nh hng ca p,q,z ti LN

P MH tng 10$/MT (5%) lm cho
L(A)tng:
(210-200)*3000 = 30 000$
ng vi:

Mt khc:

% 86 . 42
2000 * ) 165 200 (
30000
=
% 64 . 13
5000 * ) 270 300 ( 2000 * ) 165 200 (
30000
=
+
P ($/MT) z q (MT) P z q
A 200.00 165.00 2000.00 210.00 170.00 3000.00
B 300.00 270.00 5000.00 295.00 275.00 4000.00
Mt hng
K gc(0) K nghin cu (1)
355

Q(A) tng 1000T(50%) lm cho L(A) tng:
(3000-2000) * (200-165) = 35 000$
ng vi:

Mt khc:
% 50
2000 * ) 165 200 (
35000
=
% 91 . 15
5000 * ) 270 300 ( 2000 * ) 165 200 (
35000
=
+
A 200.00 165.00 2000.00 210.00 170.00 3000.00
B 300.00 270.00 5000.00 295.00 275.00 4000.00
Mt hng
356

Z(A) tng 5$/T(%) lm cho L(A) gim:
(170-165) * 3000 = 15 000$
ng vi:

Mt khc:
% 43 . 21
2000 * ) 165 200 (
15000
=
% 82 . 6
5000 * ) 270 300 ( 2000 * ) 165 200 (
15000
=
+
A 200.00 165.00 2000.00 210.00 170.00 3000.00
B 300.00 270.00 5000.00 295.00 275.00 4000.00
Mt hng
357
T % T i tng L T % T i tng L T %
A 30,000 42.86 13.64 35,000 50.00 15.91 (15,000)
-21.43
B -20,000 -13.33 -9.09 (30,000) -20.00 -13.64 (20,000) -13.33
10,000 4.55 5,000 2.27 -35,000
LN(p,q,z)
-20,000
L t ng(z)
MH
L t ng (p) L t ng (q)
358
CT
0
) (
0
) (
1 1 0 ) (
; * ) (
A A
= A
L
L
L
L
q Z Z L
Z Z
Z
0
) (
0
) (
0 0 0 1 ) (
; ) ( * ) (
A A
= A
L
L
L
L
z p q q L
q q
q
) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( q z p pzq
C L L L A + A + A = A
A
= A
0 0 0
) (
0 0 0
) (
1 0 1 ) (
) (
;
) (
* ) (
q z p
L
q z p
L
q p p L
p p
p
359
3.2. nh hng ca p,q,z v r ti
LN
0
) (
0
) (
0 1 1 0 ) (
; * ) (
A A
= A
L
L
L
L
r q Z Z L
Z Z
Z
0
) (
0
) (
0 0 0 0 1 ) (
; ) ( * ) (
A A
= A
L
L
L
L
r z p q q L
q q
q
) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( r q z p pzqr
L L L L L A + A + A + A = A
A
= A
0 0 0 0
) (
0 0 0 0
) (
0 1 0 1 ) (
) (
;
) (
* ) (
r q z p
L
r q z p
L
r q p p L
p p
p
0
) (
0
) (
0 1 1 1 1 ) (
; ) *( * ) (
A A
= A
L
L
L
L
r r q Z p L
r r
r
LN 1
360
4. nh gi tnh hnh thc hin
k hoch LN XNK
4.1 Nhim v v cc gic nh gi:
361
Cc gic nh gi
Theo mt hng/ nhm MH
Theo th trng
Theo n v cu thnh
Theo

362
4.2. nh gi theo MH/ nhm MH
4.2.1. Nhim v
4.2.2. Phng php: 3 bc
B1: Xc nh trnh hon
thnh k hoch
B2: Xc nh cc u nhc im,
nguyn nhn, tim tng, thun
li kh khn, c hi v thch thc
B3: Xy dng cc gii php,
quyt nh

363
B1: Xc nh trnh hon
thanh k hoch
MH
A
i
KH TH
A1 200 210
A2 300 400
A3 650 560
A4 400 330
A5 450 650
DN 2000 2150
LN(1,000$)
364
B1: Xc nh trnh hon
thnh k hoch
MH AH t i tng LN
A
i
KH TH %HTKH
TH-KH
(1,000$)
(TH-KH)/TngGT
A1 200 210 105.00 10 0.50
A2 300 400 133.33 100 5.00
A3 650 560 86.15 -90 -4.50
A4 400 330 82.50 -70 -3.50
A5 450 650 144.44 200 10.00
DN 2000 2150 107.50 150 7.50
LN(1,000$) Trnh THKH
365
B2: Xc nh nguyn nhn,
c hi, tim tng v thch
thc
Marketing R
366
5. M hnh ho LN
Phng php hi qui tng quan
- M hnh ho theo thi gian (XD hm xu
th)
- M hnh ho theo cc nhn t c lin
quan: nh vn, nhn lc,
367
6. D on LN
a/ D on da vo lng tng (gim) tuyt
i bnh qun

b/ D on da vo tc pht trin bnh
qun

c/ Ngoi suy hm xu th
368
7. Ti a ho li nhun
Khi sn phm ang trong giai on
thm nhp th trng doanh nghip
Qmax!

iu kin ti a ho khi lng
AR=AC
TR = TC
369
Khi sn phm ng vng trn
th trng

Mc tiu: Li nhun max!

iu kin: MR = MC
370
Giai on thoi tro

Mc tiu: Doanh thu max!

iu kin: MR = 0!
371
VD
STT
P. n q (T)
p
(1000$/T) TR TC MR MC MPR (%)
LN
(1000$)
1 100 30.0 3,000 2,500 30.0 25.0 20.0 500
2 200 29.5 5,900 4,760 29.0 22.6 28.3 1,140
3 300 29.0 8,700 6,786 28.0 20.3 38.2 1,914
4 400 28.2 11,280 8,800 25.8 20.1 28.1 2,480
5 500 27.0 13,500 10,870 22.2 20.7 7.2 2,630
6 600 26.0 15,600 12,970 21.0 21.0 - 2,630
7 700 24.7 17,290 15,260 16.9 22.9 (26.2) 2,030
8 800 23.3 18,600 17,760 13.1 25.0 (47.6) 840
372
Ch
1.
2.
373
8. Ti u ho li nhun
Nguyn tc: u tin u t vo lnh lc, mt
hng, phng n c t sut ti hn ln nht

Phn tng thm ca li nhun
T sut ti hn= --------------------------------
Phn tng vn u t
374
Bi tp
C s liu ca tng cng ty X gm 3 cng ty thnh vin nm 2005
nh sau

a/ X gi thnh bq, NSL bq ca tng cng ty X
b/ nh gi hiu qu SXKD ca tng cng ty X v cng ty thnh
vin

Doanh
thu
(t )
Gi bn sp
(1000/sp)
Gi thnh sp
(1000/sp)
NSLbq
(sp/ngi/n
m )
Cng ty A 15 12 9,5 10 000
Cng ty B 22,5 12 9,3 12 500
Cng ty C 32,4 12 9 12 000
375
VD : C s liu sau, hy phn tch s bin ng
ca LN k nghin cu so vi k gc do nh
hng ca cc nhn t cu thnh.

MH
K gc K nghin cu
Gi XK
(USD/tn)
KLXK
(tn)
Gi thnh
XK
(USD/tn)

(USD/tn

(tn)

(USD/tn
)
p
0
q
0
z
0
p
1
q
1
z
1
A
B
180
150
800
700
140
130
200
160
1000
800
150
130
376
P/A MH u t- LN
2 C 30 5.8
1 B 20 3.4
3 A 50 7.5
Tng 100 16.7
LN
(t ng)
T sut
LN t i
h n (%)
LN
(t
ng)
T sut
LN t i
h n (%)
LN
(t
ng)
T sut
LN t i
h n (%)
0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0
20 3.2 16 3.4 17 4.0 20
30 4.7 15 4.6 12 5.8 18
50 7.5 14 6.8 11 8.4 13
60 8.6 11 7.8 10 9.4 10
MHC
Vn u t-
MHA MHB

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